Recommended Reading for the Week Ending 31st March, 2023

CIRC/12/2023 04 April 2023

1. Ukraine is again defying the odds in the battle for Bakhmut

By: German Lopez, NY Times

Source: The Morning Brief, NY Times

A costly clash

Early this month, the head of NATO warned that the fierce battle over the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut could
end with a Russian victory within days. Three weeks later, his prediction has yet to come true. Ukraine and
Russia are still fighting for control of the city.

The stalemate has come at great cost for both sides, particularly Russia. Ukrainian officials have
estimated that for every one of their soldiers lost, Russia has lost seven. Russia tried to replenish its ranks
by letting prisoners fight, but it has nearly exhausted the supply of those recruits as well.

The battle has also taken a heavy toll on munitions, vehicles and other military equipment — and has also
taken a lot of time. The first time this newsletter mentioned Bakhmut was in July, when Russia increased its
attacks near the city.

Russia could still capture Bakhmut, and some analysts expect it to do so. But for now, the battle over the
city has become yet another example of Ukraine defying the odds and of Russia performing worse than
many experts expected. Today’s newsletter will explain why both sides have put so much into Bakhmut —
and why it could have important consequences for the broader war.

Wanting a win

Bakhmut has little strategic value, U.S. officials say. The city is in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s primary target
in the war, but there is nothing uniquely valuable about the city for the war effort.
 By The New York Times

So why has Russia thrown so much into taking it? Because Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, is desperate
for a win — any win. The war has not gone as well for Russia as most people expected. In the past several
months, Russia has lost territory, pulling back in both the northeastern and southern fronts. The original goal
— to take Kyiv and topple the Ukrainian government — now seems beyond reach.

If Russia can take Bakhmut now, Putin can argue to the Russian people, to his allies in China and Iran and
to Western supporters of Ukraine that Russia is making gains and has momentum. A win could boost morale
among Russian forces and hurt international support for Ukraine. With the spring expected to bring better
weather for renewed offenses, that boost to Russia could help its military get back on track in the war.

Conversely, the perception that a victory in Bakhmut could raise Russian morale and sink Ukrainian hopes
has also turned the city into a symbol for Ukraine. Its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has said that a Russian
seizure of Bakhmut would let Putin argue that he has the advantage. “If he will feel some blood — smell
that we are weak — he will push, push, push,” Zelensky said this week.

But even if Russia takes Bakhmut, the win might amount to little gain at great cost. Russia will have lost so
many troops and so much equipment trying to take a city of scant strategic value that it may have been better
off never mounting an offensive.

And a Russian failure to take Bakhmut altogether would be an astonishing defeat. After all, if Russia can’t
capture the city even with the investment of so many resources, how can it expect to win the broader war?

“Bakhmut will always be a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. It gets them nothing,” said my colleague Michael
Schwirtz, who has covered the war from Ukraine. “But if Ukraine manages to push them back, it will be a
disaster.”

What comes next

The battle could also have negative consequences for Ukraine. Its military has put resources toward the fight
there that could have gone elsewhere, particularly to an offensive this spring. Ukraine wants to not only
retake lost land through a renewed offensive but also split Russian forces in the east from those in the south.

“If a Ukrainian offensive in the weeks ahead comes close but falls short, there will be recriminations about
whether such an effort could have been more successful if resources had not been diverted to Bakhmut,”
said my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers national security.

But it’s also possible that the battle for Bakhmut could help Ukraine’s next offensive, by having forced
Russia to spend so many resources on the city. How the fighting in Bakhmut will be judged, then, depends
on what happens next and how the consequences play out on the rest of the battlefield.

2. Indian Ocean Rim

By: Ananta Centre

Source: Ananta Centre Newsletter

As the Chinese and Russians make substantial inroads into Africa, US Vice-President is undertaking a visit from March
25 to key Indian Ocean Region state of Tanzania besides Ghana and Zambia to boost sustainable economic growth &
food security. Ironically though Tanzania and Zambia plans to engage Chinese investors to revitalise operations of
the railway line that is underperforming due to insufficient capitalization. Meanwhile, both political and economic
situation in Kenya continue to deteriorate. In South Africa, the visiting Belgian King urged the government to move
Russia to end the conflict given strong ties between Pretoria and Moscow. In Oman (a key India Ocean Region &
Persian Gulf state) the Sultan held telephonic conversation with the Russian President to exchange views on
international and regional issues.

Tanzania: What Harris' Visit Means to Tz

AllAfrica.com |23rd March 2023
THE maiden visit of US Vice-President Kamala Harris to Tanzania is expected to bolster bilateral ties between
the two countries and promote a number of areas for cooperation, pundits have forecasted. Ms Harris and her
delegation will visit three African countries - Tanzania, Ghana and Zambia from 25 March to 2 April to discuss
regional and global priorities, including shared commitment to democracy, inclusive and sustainable economic
growth, food security, and the effects of war between Russia Ukraine," according to a readout from her office.

TAZARA to re-engage Chinese investors to revitalise operations

Daily News Tanzania | 24th March 2023
 THE Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA) plans to engage Chinese investors to revitalise
operations of the railway line that is underperforming due to insufficient capitalisation. TAZARA Council of
Ministers, comprising the Ministers responsible for Transport, Finance and Industry in Tanzania and Zambia
which met in Lusaka, Zambia recently, directed the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) to complete the process
of engaging the Chinese investors, who have expressed interest in reviving TAZARA.

President Ruto takes eight new loans in four months

The Nation | 24th March 2023
The Kenya Kwanza administration contracted eight new loans worth Sh43.4 billion in the four months between
September 1 to December 31.

Religious, business leaders urge Ruto, Raila to hold talks

The Citizen | 23rd March 2023
President William Ruto has maintained a hard-line position on opposition protests he likened to economic
sabotage, even as calls for him to hold talks with Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition leader Raila
Odinga intensified.

Belgium calls on South Africa to help end war in Ukraine

Africa News | 24th March 2023
Belgium called on South Africa on Thursday to use its influence with Russia to end the conflict
in Ukraine. The appeal was made during a state visit by the Belgian king to Pretoria. King Philippe is travelling
with Queen Mathilde and Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib during a five-day state visit to the country.
President Cyril Ramaphosa responded to the call by saying that Pretoria continues "to use the channel we have
with Russia...to talk about how the conflict can be brought to an end".

HM the Sultan receives phone call from Russian President

Times of Oman | 23rd March 2023
His Majesty Sultan Haitham bin Tarik received a phone call today from President Vladimir Putin of the
Russian Federation. During the call, the two leaders reviewed areas of bilateral cooperation. They also
exchanged views on various regional and international issues of common concern.

3. Why is Israel descending into political turmoil so far into Netanyahu’s career?

By: David Leonhardt and Claire Moses, NY Times

Source: The Morning Newsletter, NY Times

‘At fever pitch’

Political leaders who have already been in office for more than 15 years — which is how long Benjamin
Netanyahu has been Israel’s prime minister — do not typically upend their country’s politics. Yet that’s
what Netanyahu has done in recent weeks.

His government’s proposal to reduce the power of Israel’s Supreme Court has created what our Opinion
colleague Thomas Friedman calls the nation’s “biggest internal clash since its founding.” Hundreds of
thousands of Israelis — approaching 5 percent of the population — participated in protests last weekend.
Ehud Barak, a former prime minister, has encouraged Israelis to engage in civil disobedience if the proposal
becomes law. And many military officers have said they would refuse to report for duty.

Bret Stephens, another Times Opinion columnist — who has often been sympathetic to Netanyahu’s policies
— has criticized the judicial plan as a threat to Israel’s moral standing. “Hyper-personalized, populist rule
achieved by gutting institutional checks and balances is how democracies devolve into mobocracies,” Bret
wrote.

In today’s newsletter, we’ll explain why the later stages of Netanyahu’s political career are turning out to be
more chaotic than anything that came before.

What changed?

Netanyahu has always been on Israel’s political right, but he was long able to build alliances with the center.
The Israeli left, by contrast, has been marginalized and has not led the government since 2001.

One important cause was the breakdown of peace talks between Israeli and Palestinian leaders in the early
2000s. The failure of those talks — including the Palestinian leadership’s walking away from the Camp
David negotiations in 2000 — led many Israeli voters to give up on the idea of peace and support
conservative parties. Netanyahu often led the coalitions that spanned the center and right.

But in 2019, while he was prime minister, Netanyahu was indicted on corruption and bribery charges. Many
politicians who agree with his Likud party on substantive issues decided that he needed to resign. “Israel’s
centrist parties are willing to serve in a coalition with Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud in charge,” Matti
Friedman, a journalist who lives in Israel, wrote for The Free Press. “But they will no longer serve under
Netanyahu himself: The prime minister, a master of the political maneuver, has simply lied to too many
people too many times.”
This refusal, combined with the continued popularity of the political right, has thrown Israeli politics into
turmoil. The country has held five elections since 2019. Likud received the largest share of votes — 23
percent — in the most recent election. Even so, Netanyahu was able to put together a governing
coalition only by allying with far-right and religious parties.

The current government, as a result, is more radical than the previous governments Netanyahu led.

Why the Supreme Court?

Israel’s Supreme Court has something in common with the U.S. version: Both are among the most powerful
courts in the world. In many other countries, the top court does not overturn major laws and instead tends to
make modest, technocratic changes. In Israel and the U.S., the court often has the last word. (In Israel, the
underlying reason is the lack of a constitution.)

The proposed changes by Netanyahu’s government would strengthen the authority of the legislature, which
in Israel is known as the Knesset. It is already more powerful than the U.S. Congress, because there is no
independently elected president; a majority of legislators choose the prime minister. If the judicial changes
go through, the Knesset would also gain the power to override Supreme Court decisions and would have
few checks on its power.

Yesterday, the Knesset passed an initial version of some of the changes. Lawmakers will have to vote twice
more before the policies becomes law.

Some political commentators argue that the changes themselves are reasonable. “What’s at stake here isn’t
the death of the nation’s democracy, but straightforward party politics,” Lahav Harkov of The Jerusalem
Post wrote. “The discussion is, in fact, about the proper balance between different elements of a democracy.”

Many other analysts disagree, arguing that the reforms would allow a prime minister to dismantle
democracy, much as Viktor Orban has done in Hungary. “Theoretically, you could end up with a government
that decides that elections are going to take place once every 20 years,” our colleague Isabel Kershner said.

Either way, the changes have inspired intense anger because they would give Netanyahu’s government
sweeping power to implement its preferred policies.

“Underlying this technical debate about the judiciary is a much broader conflict about what kind of society
Israel should be,” Patrick Kingsley, The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief, told us. “Ultra-Orthodox Jews and
settler activists are taking advantage of the fact that they wield unprecedented power in Israeli society and
government to try to unravel the influence of the court.”

The stakes

Netanyahu and his far-right allies have different incentives to neutralize the court.

For Netanyahu, a court that was subservient to Israeli’s legislature would allow him to end his own
corruption trial, which is still taking place. Netanyahu has denied he would do so.

For far-right parties, a neutered court would help the Knesset to enact major policy priorities — such as
making it easier for settlers to seize land in the West Bank; protecting government subsidies for religious
schools; and helping ultra-Orthodox Israelis avoid mandatory military service.

One reason for the intensity of the debate is the polarization between Israelis who are part of Netanyahu’s
coalition and who are outside of it. He has appointed ultranationalist figures to major posts, including Itamar
Ben-Gvir, the leader of the far-right Jewish Power party, who threatened Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin
weeks before his 1995 assassination and publicly thanked a rabbi who justified Rabin’s murder. Ben-Gvir
is now the national security minister.

“Israeli society is at fever pitch,” Patrick said.

*****