Uncertainties in Measurement

By Lucas Peterson
PH2011-112 Sec. 2, Spring 2022
Milwaukee School of Engineering

Submitted to: Mr. Steve Augustine

Physics and Chemistry Department
Lab Partner: Calvin Bloede

Date Experiment Performed: 03/17/2022

Date Report Submitted: 05/03/2022
 ABSTRACT

An essential aspect of physics is the measurement of physical quantities, however, accurately measuring
physical quantities is notoriously difficult. For example, the awkwardness of measuring the physical
quantity of time is made clear when trying to determine the time between two happenings. In this case, one
might look for a physical repetitive event, such as the time between the first and second bounces of a ping-
pong ball dropped from a consistent height. Upon analysis of this experiment, however, one will find that
taking only a single measurement of time is often inconsistent and unpredictable. Instead, multiple trials
and more sophisticated methods of analysis must be utilized to determine the true value of any given
physical quantity. The most important aspect of determining the value for a physical quantity is being able
to estimate the amount of uncertainty in its value because the value of any set of observations gives no
insight about the validity of any given measurement. Many physical tools, such as stopwatches, however,
do not display their uncertainty; moreover, the experimenter many make mistakes in the usage of said
device resulting in even more uncertainty. Therefore, when a student requests the uncertainty for the time
between the first and second bounces of a ping-pong ball their request must be broken down into two
essential questions: “How accurate is any given measurement in comparison to set?” and “How accurate
are their measurements of the time obtained with the method they used?” In attempting to answer these
questions we were able to estimate that the true value of the time in between the first and second bounces
of a ping-pong ball dropped from one meter will likely fall within the range (0.713 s, 0.753 s).

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PURPOSE ..................................................................................................................................................... ii
THEORY ...................................................................................................................................................... ii
PROCEDURE .............................................................................................................................................. iii
DATA .......................................................................................................................................................... iv
ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................................. iv
DISSCUSSION ............................................................................................................................................ vi
CONCLUTION............................................................................................................................................ vi
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................ vi

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PURPOSE: The objective of this experiment was to measure the time between two events and determine a
quantitative estimate of the uncertainty in this time.
THEORY: For any single measurement there is the potential for both random and systematic errors, thus
making a single measurement an unreliable estimate of a physical property. Random errors result from an
error in measurement which cannot be predicted or controlled for in an experiment. Random errors are
caused by factors that are outside of the experimenter’s control or human flaws, such as an experimenter
misreading a measurement device. On the other hand, a systemic error is any error that can be predicted or
controlled for in an experiment. Systemic errors are caused by factors that are within the experimenter’s
control, such as precision of the measuring instrument. For example, if an experimenter were measuring
the length of a table with a ruler, their measurement would be susceptible to random error if they estimate
the distance between the lowest possible measurement with a meterstick, while their measurement would
be susceptible to systemic error if the meterstick they are using has been incorrectly calibrated.
The average of a series of measurements can be used to calculate the best estimate of a measured quantity.
∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖 (1)
𝑡̅ =
𝑛
The average represents the trend or central tendency in a dataset consisting of repetitive measurements,
calculated through dividing the sum of repetitive measurements in a set and dividing that sum by the size
of the set (1). It is in contrast with the best estimate of a calculated quantity, which is calculated from
averages of measurable quantities it depends on, and with the slope of a trend line, which represents the
trend in a dataset in which one quantity varies linearly with another.
In statistics, standard deviation is the tendency any particular observation to vary from the mean of a dataset.

∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑡𝑖 − 𝑡̅)2
𝑠𝑡 = √ (2)
𝑛−1

Standard deviation is a way of quantifying the amount of variation or dispersion of a dataset and is
calculated through summing the distance from each observation to the mean, squaring that sum, then
dividing by the total number of observations minus one, and finally taking the square root of the resultant
dividend (2). A low standard deviation indicates that the data set is very "tight" or close to the mean, while
a high standard deviation indicates that the data set is very "spread out" from the mean. Given that standard
deviation represents the variation in a dataset it can be used to represent the typical uncertainty in a
measurement when compared to the best estimate of that measurable.
A normal distribution is a type of probability distribution where data is symmetric about the mean value.
This means that if a mathematician were to plot random data in a histogram, it would have a bell-shaped
curve. Standard deviation can be used to assess the spread of observations about the central trend. For
example, if the data is normally distributed, then two out of three observations will be within one standard
deviation of the mean. This means that 95% of all observations will be within two standard deviations of
the mean, and 99% of all observations will be within three standard deviations of the mean. Standard
deviation can therefore be used to access the normality of a dataset.
Standard error represents the statistical uncertainty in the estimate of the population mean based on a sample
mean.

(3)

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 𝑠𝑡
𝑠𝑡̅ =
√𝑛
Standard error can be used to express the variability of the estimate due to random errors in measurements
and can be calculated by taking the standard deviation and dividing it by the square root of the size of the
sample (3). It can also be used to set up a range of estimates centered on the sample mean that the population
mean should fall into.
𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒 = 𝑡̅ ± 𝑠𝑡̅ (4)

Similarly, standard error can be used to set up a range of estimates centered on the sample mean that the
true value of the measured quantity should fall into, by sampling values the result from the range within the
bounds of the sum and difference of the mean of the dataset and its standard error (4). While the above
range does account for the effect of random measurement errors on the mean of the dataset, it does not
account for any systemic measurement errors.

𝐵𝐼𝐴𝑆 = |𝑡̿ − 𝑡̅| (5)

For this experiment systemic measurement errors will be approximated by calculating the bias in the mean
by comparing it to the mean of the averages of multiple separate groups’ datasets. The bias is found by
taking the absolute value of the difference between the mean of this experiment and the mean of all groups’
averages (5).
𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒 = 𝑡̅ ± (𝑠𝑡̅ + 𝐵𝐼𝐴𝑆) (6)
With the bias in the mean due to systematic measurement errors found, a new range of estimates for the
true value of a measured quantity should fall into can be found, by sampling values the result from the range
within the bounds of the sum and difference of the mean of the dataset and the sum of standard error and
bias in the mean (6).
PROCEDURE: A stopwatch was used to record to two decimal places the time between a Ping-Pong
ball’s first and second bounces after being was dropped from a height of 1.0 m above a lab table. To
verify that the Ping-Pong ball was dropped from 1.0 m a meterstick was held straight up on the surface of
the lab table. After 30 trials were recorded, Microsoft Excel® was used to calculate the mean and
standard deviation of the dataset. The t-score was then calculated for each datapoint, and any outliers
were replaced. Using the standard error of the mean to approximate uncertainty in the best estimate due to
random measurement errors the first estimate of the true time between the first and second bounces was
found. After calculating mean of the means of six different group’s datasets the bias in the time between
bounces was found. This bias was used to find the final estimate of the time between the first and second
bounces of the ping-pong ball.

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DATA:

Table 1: Observed Times Between Bounces

Trial Time (1/100 s) Trial Time (1/100 s) Trial Time (1/100 s)
1 88 11 72 21 75
2 72 12 75 22 69
3 65 13 62 23 68
4 65 14 75 24 72
5 72 15 78 25 75
6 69 16 75 26 78
7 66 17 78 27 75
8 72 18 78 28 75
9 66 19 75 29 75
10 88 20 75 30 72

ANALYSIS: The normal distribution of the dataset (shown in Figure 1) resembles a bell-shaped curve with
unusually high values on its edges.

Figure 1: Histogram of Observed Times

With the use of Microsoft Excel®, it can be shown that the dataset’s mean 𝑡̅ = 0.733 𝑠 and its standard
deviation 𝑠𝑡 = 0.06 𝑠. After determining the dataset’s mean and standard deviation the t-scores of each
observation were calculated. The t-score of each individual observation is calculated by finding the
difference between the individual observation and the mean of all observations and dividing that by the
standard deviation (7).
𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̅
𝑡 − 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 = (7)
𝑠𝑡
With the use of the above formula the first observation’s t-score can be calculated (8), resulting in a t-score
of 2.45.
0.88 𝑠 − 0.733 𝑠 (8)
𝑡 − 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒1 = = 2.45
0.06 𝑠

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Table 2: t-Scores of Measurements Collected from Thirty Trials
Trial Time (1/100 s) t-Score Trial Time (1/100 s) t-Score
1 88 2.50 16 75 0.28
2 72 -0.23 17 78 0.80
3 65 -1.42 18 78 0.80
4 65 -1.42 19 75 0.28
5 72 -0.23 20 75 0.28
6 69 -0.74 21 75 0.28
7 66 -1.25 22 69 -0.74
8 72 -0.23 23 68 -0.91
9 66 -1.25 24 72 -0.23
10 88 2.50 25 75 0.28
11 72 -0.23 26 78 0.80
12 75 0.28 27 75 0.28
13 62 -1.93 28 75 0.28
14 75 0.28 29 75 0.28
15 78 0.80 30 72 -0.23

Calculating the t-scores of each observation resulted in no trials being replaced.

Using the standard deviation 𝑠𝑡 , a first estimate of the true time between the first and second bounce was
found to be within the range (0.673 s, 0.793 s) (9).
𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒 = 0.733 𝑠 ± 0.06 𝑠 = (0.673 𝑠, 0.793 𝑠) (9)
To approximate the uncertainty in the best estimate due to random measurement errors, the standard error
of the mean 𝑠𝑡̅ was calculated to be 0.01 s (10).
0.06 𝑠
𝑠𝑡̅ = = 0.01 𝑠 (10)
√30
Using the standard error of the mean 𝑠𝑡̅ , a better estimate of the true time between the first and second
bounce was found to be within the range (0.723 s, 0.743 s) (11).
𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒 = 0.733 𝑠 ± 0.01 𝑠 = (0.723 𝑠, 0.743 𝑠) (11)

Table 3: Group Average Times

GROUP 𝒕̅ (s)
1 0.720
2 0.714
3 0.731
4 0.711
5 0.731
6 0.733

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Using each groups’ calculated mean (shown in Figure 3) and Microsoft Excel®, the average of all six
groups’ means 𝑡̿ was found to be 0.7233 s. Using this average and the original dataset’s mean the bias in
the mean due to random measurement errors was found to be 0.010 s (12).
𝐵𝐼𝐴𝑆 = |0.7233 𝑠 − 0.733 𝑠| = 0.010 𝑠 (12)
With both the systematic error and random measurement error accounted for, next best true time between
the first and second bounces can now be approximated by the range (0.713 s, 0.753 s) (13).
𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒 = 0.733 𝑠 ± (0.01 𝑠 + 0.010 𝑠) = (0.713 𝑠, 0.753 𝑠) (13)
DISSCUSSION: Sources of error include: the ping-pong ball being dropped from a height greater or less
than 1.0 m, the meterstick being held up at an angle, the ball bouncing off the table at an angle, the stopwatch
being stopped too soon or started too early, or the ping-pong ball not being a perfect sphere.
CONCLUTION: The true time between the first and second bounces of a ping-pong ball dropped from a
height of 1.0 m should fall within the range (0.713 s, 0.753 s). This range is not very reliable given the
somewhat uneven distribution of measurements and could be refined by the collection of more
measurements.
REFERENCES: “Uncertainties in Measurement,” PH2010 Lab Manual, MSOE, 2008

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