Eleni Hajimarkos MBBCh 1 2020 Block 1

HSD Block 1 Notes:

Casual loop diagrams, Level-Rate diagrams, Zero-Order Systems & Visual Integration and Differentiation

Systems:

• A set of interacting components forming whole

• Responds to a set of inputs to yield an output
• Systems are bounded
• A functional unit comprising of specific interconnections (its structure) of functional
sub-units which produce particular outputs for given inputs (its behaviour).
• The subunits are interrelated, interconnected elements
• Systems can be viewed at different levels of detail and this is called abstraction

Dynamics:

• Forces or properties that stimulate growth, development and change within a system

Course history:

• Originally developed in 1950s by Jay Forrester at MIT

• It was developed to understand the social, business and economic phenomena.
• Powerful and versatile tool enabling the modelling of systems which allows us to gain
a better understanding of the system
• Graphical representation of first order differential equations

Model:

o A diagrammatic, graphical, mathematical representation of something in the real

world
o They are never 100% accurate as there are assumptions and boundaries and are
therefore oversimplified
o They are used as gathering points for discussion regardless of background and
understanding

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Qualitative vs quantitative data:

Qualitative data:

Þ Words and descriptions

Þ Discover thoughts
Þ Add depth in understanding

Quantitative data:

Þ Numbers and measurements

Þ Do calculations
Þ produce graphs

Causality vs correlation:

Causality ¹ correlation

Correlation à A statistical measure (expressed as a number) that describes the size and
direction of a relationship between two or more variables.

Causality à One event has an effect on another event. It indicates that one event is the result
of the occurrence of the over event and therefore there is a causal relationship between the
two events. This is also referred to as cause and effect.

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Causal Loop Diagrams:

´ diagrammatic representation if interacting elements in a systems model
´ focus on capturing causality and feedback effects
´ help in understanding basic model of system
´ they are qualitative in nature
´ NOT FOR QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Components of a CLD:

´ Variable – items of interest in the model

´ Causal link – indicates which event causes another
´ Polarity – positive and negative
´ Feedback loops – reinforcing (+) or balancing (-)

Variables:

® Use nouns not verbs à “Costs” instead of “increasing costs”

® Should be able to vary over time à “happiness” instead of “state of mind”
® Use the positive or negative form/sense of an element à “growth” instead of
“decay”

Causal Link:

® Represented by an arrow
® Must be causality
® Ambiguous links – generally means that there are more causal loops

Polarity:

® Positive: If all else remains the same, an increase in the first variable, increases the
2nd variable above where it would have otherwise been had we not modified it
® Negative: If all else remains the same, an increase in the first variable, decreases the
2nd variable below where it would have otherwise been had we not modified it

Feedback (Loops):

® Can change system behaviour

® Reinforcing loops à positive feedback
® Balancing or regulating loops à negative feedback
® Multiply signs of polarities in loop

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Level Rate Diagrams:

¨ Most important concept in HSD
¨ Provides more information than a CLD
¨ Has actuals numbers allowing for quantitative analysis
¨ Rates have flows associated with them
¨ Levels have accumulated over time and initial conditions
¨ LRDs are an essential step in building a model for simulations
¨ Shifts focus away from an individual in the system to see larger accumulation

Components of LRDs:

´ Level (stock) – variable in a system that accumulates and represents the state of the
system at a given time
´ Rate (flow) – variable in a system that represents the rate of change of a quantity over
time and influences the level either positively (as an inflow) or negatively (as an
outflow)
´ Auxiliary variable – additional variable that is neither a level nor a rate and often
represents a coefficient, conversion factor or lookup table.
´ Boundary – limits of a model
´ Arrows – links the components of a system drawing to illustrate dependencies

Levels (stocks):

® State variables – identifies the state of the system

® Must be quantifiable
® Accumulations all around us

´ Levels with inflow rates can go up and levels with outflow rates can go down

® Accumulation of the net flow rate over time

´ Net flow rate = inflow rate – outflow rate

® Mathematically represented by an integral ò

Rates (flows):

® Represented variables/events that cause levels to increase or decrease

® Always measured per unit time
® No memory
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® Mathematically represented as derivatives !#

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Auxiliary Variables:

® Adds additional information to the model (not a level or rate)

® Adds model transparency and details (decreased abstractions or hidden information)
® Could contain: Numerical value (constant), Equation or calculation, Look up table
® Allows model to function properly

Boundaries:

® Focuses on modelling and not real world phenomena

® Important part of modelling
® Defines the part of the system we are interested in

Level-Rate Diagrams (LRDs) equations

𝐸𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 = ∫ (𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒)𝑑𝑡

𝐸𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑢𝑥𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 ∗ 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙

∴ 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 = ∫ (𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑢𝑥𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 ∗ 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙)𝑑𝑡

𝑑
(𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙) = 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑢𝑥𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 ∗ 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙
𝑑𝑡

Level-Rate Pair Examples:

Distance – speed
Speed – acceleration
Energy – power
Charge – current

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Dimensional Analysis:

§ Analysis of relationship between physical quantities

§ We analyse the units measured
§ Treat units as algebraic

Base SI Units:

SI Prefixes:

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Zero-Order Systems:
Systems Architecture – order of a system determines its dynamic response.

§ Rate is constant
§ Rate is not affected by a level – independent
§ System responds instantly to changes in inputs – inflow and outflow
§ Output is proportional to input no matter how input varies
§ E.g. IV drip and taking blood at a constant rate

Inflow:

Outflow:

Combined:

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Mathematically:

𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 = ± 𝑐
𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = +𝑐
𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = −𝑐
Solution:

∫ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑑𝑡 = ò ± 𝑐𝑑𝑡
𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 = ±𝑐𝑡 + 𝐿(𝑂)
𝑦 = 𝑚𝑥 + 𝑐

Graphically:

Inflow:

Outflow:

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Visual Integration and Differentiation:

𝑁𝑒𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 − 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒

But a level is the incremental accumulation of net rates;

$%
𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 = C (𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒)𝑑𝑡
$&

Where t0 is the initial time, and tf is the final time.

All levels have to have initial conditions;

$%
𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 = 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 + C (𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒)𝑑𝑡
$&

Where the initial condition represent the level at time t0.

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Eleni Hajimarkos MBBCh 1 2020 Block 1

Vensim Basic Calculation: Example where rate is constant

&.() &)
𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒 = E*+, − *+,F × 3𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 1.5𝑙outflow rate is 0 l/min.

Vensim Basic Calculation: Example where rate is NOT constant

To calculate area under the curve, use Reimann sum/integration.

Σ(𝑛𝑒𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 × ∆𝑡)

Where Dt is the change in time also known as the time step in Vensim.

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Vensim Basic Calculation: Example where rate is NOT constant - continued

Integration:

§ Levels are found by determining the area under a rate curve

§ Level are found by integrating net rates in Vensim
§ Integration could be defined as the sum of areas under a curve (rate curve)

Differentiation:

§ The gradient is constant for all time

§ Zero-Order system is shown in the graph above
§ Rate is NOT always constant as seen in First-Order systems
§ From the level, we can get the rate using differentiation

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Eleni Hajimarkos MBBCh 1 2020 Block 1

Summary of Integration and Differentiation:

´ Integration can be defined as the sum of areas under a curve (rate curve)
´ The Reimann Sum can be used to determine integrals
´ Differentiation can be defined as the rate of change i.e. the gradient of a level curve

Class Exercise:

® What is the maximum inflow rate?

® At what point does the bathtub have the maximum amount of water?

® When does the bath tub have the least amount of water?

® When do we get the minimum inflow rate

® What does zero rate imply? (see point D of inflow curve)

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