Proceedings of ICE

Civil Engineering 160 May 2007

Pages 66–72 Paper 14806

doi: 10.1680/cien.2007.160.2.66
Keywords
environment; fossil fuels;
mathematical modelling

Climate stability:
an inconvenient proof

This paper demonstrates that the widely prophesied doubling

David Bellamy
OBE, BSc, PhD, FLS, FBiol, of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from natural, pre-industrial
FRGS, Hon FCIWEM

is the founding president at the

values will enhance the so-called ‘greenhouse effect’ but
Conservation Foundation in London will amount to less than 1°C of global warming. It also points
out that such a scenario is unlikely to arise given our limited
reserves of fossil fuels—certainly not before the end of this
century. Furthermore, the paper argues that general circulation
models are as yet insufficiently accurate for civil engineers to
rely on their predictions in any forward-planning decisions—the
Jack Barrett
omission of solar wind effects being a potentially significant
PhD
shortcoming. It concludes that the only certainty is that the
is a member of the advisory
forum for the Scientific Alliance in world’s fossil fuel resources are finite and should be used
Cambridge
prudently and with proper respect to the environment.

The Earth’s atmosphere functions in much radiation can pass through the glass and
the same way as a greenhouse. A real cause heating by being absorbed by the
greenhouse has temperatures greater than materials inside the greenhouse. The heat
the surrounding air. This is because solar cannot escape easily because convection is

107 Reflected solar 342 Incoming solar 235 Outgoing

radiation 107 W/m2 radiation 342 W/m2 longwave
radiation
235 W/m2

Reflected by clouds,
aerosol and 77
atmosphere Atmospheric
40 infrared
77 W/m2
Emitted by 165 30 window
atmosphere
Absorbed by Greenhouse
atmosphere gases
67
Latent
24 78 heat
40
Reflected 350 324
by surface Back
30 W/m2 radiation

168 24 78 390
Absorbed Surface 324
Thermals Evapo- Absorbed
by surface transpiration radiation
by surface

Fig. 1. Earth’s annual global mean energy budget (units in W/m2), showing the significant greenhouse
effect of the atmosphere (reproduced with permission from the American Meteorological Society)

C I V I L E N G I N E E R I N G

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Fig. 2. The Earth radiates 235 W/m2 of energy into space—equivalent to an atmosphere-free ‘black
body’ with a surface temperature of –19·5°C (NASA)
prevented and because glass has very poor
transmission characteristics for infrared
radiation. Heat escapes mainly by conduc-
tion through the glass. The crop yields in
commercial greenhouses are also boosted
by kerosene burners which make the car-
bon dioxide (CO2) concentration much
higher than that in normal air, CO2 being
the main nutrient for carbon-based plants.
The Earth behaves in a similar way, but
the surface is cooled additionally by con-
vection and by the evaporation of water.
Fig. 1 shows a generalised energy budget
for the planet, in which the units of energy
flux are watts per square metre (W/m2)
averaged over the whole of the Earth’s
surface.1
Long-term radiation balance
Some incoming solar radiation is
reflected by clouds, aerosols and the gase-
ous components of the atmosphere, and
some is absorbed by the atmosphere. That
absorbed by the stratosphere (10–50 km
ISSN 0965 089 X
CE May 07.indd 67
above the surface) leads to the formation
of the ozone layer, which protects the sur-
face from the more energetic of the ultra-
violet radiation; and that absorbed by the
troposphere (0–10 km) leads to warming.
When the transmitted solar energy
strikes the Earth’s surface, some is
reflected to space and the remainder
is absorbed by the materials of the
surface, which in consequence becomes
heated. The heated surface is cooled by
thermal transfer to the atmosphere by the
processes of conduction and convection,
the evaporation of water and by the
emission of infrared radiation, most of
which is absorbed by the greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere, a small proportion
escaping through what is known as the
‘infrared window’. This is the region of
the spectrum with wavenumber values of
750–1300 cm–1, which the components of
the atmosphere do not absorb.
The absorption of terrestrial infrared
radiation by the greenhouse gases is a
major contributor to the warming of the
PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS – CIVIL ENGINEERING, 2007, 160, No. CE2
CLIMATE STABILITY:
AN INCONVENIENT PROOF
atmosphere and allows the atmosphere
to radiate in all directions, the fraction
directed down to the surface contributing
to the so-called ‘greenhouse effect’—the
further warming of the surface. Towards
space the atmosphere emits sufficient
infrared radiation to ensure a long-term
radiative balance, in which 235 W/m2 of
solar radiation is absorbed by the atmos-
phere–surface system which also emits the
same flux as infrared radiation to space.
‘Greenhouse’ gases
Absorption of infrared radiation by
the main components of the atmosphere,
namely nitrogen and oxygen molecules, is
forbidden by quantum laws.2
Molecules that are allowed to absorb
and emit infrared radiation must either
possess a permanent dipole moment—for
example the bent water molecule in
which the oxygen atom has a partially
negative charge balanced by partially posi-
tive charges on the hydrogen atoms—or
undergo vibrational motions that alter
the dipole moment. An example of the
latter is the linear CO2 molecule that has
zero dipole moment because the partially
negatively charged oxygen atoms are dia-
metrically opposed, but when it undergoes
a bending vibration the dipole moment is
transiently non-zero.
Thus water vapour and CO2 are green-
house gases, as are to a lesser extent meth-
ane (CH4) and dinitrogen oxide (N2O).
The ozone molecule (O3) is also a green-
house gas, but it is only present in signifi-
cant concentrations in the stratosphere.
Total global warming
From space the Earth is a planet which
emits 235 W/m2 (Fig. 2). If this emission
is considered to be the broad spectrum
emitted by an ideal blackbody, the emis-
sion temperature of the Earth can be
calculated from the Stefan–Boltzmann law
E = T4, where E is the emitted flux, is
the Stefan–Boltzmann constant (5·67 ×
107 J/sK4) and T is the absolute tempera-
ture of the emitting surface. Applied to an
emission of 235 W/m2 this gives an emis-
sion temperature of 253·7 K (–19·5°C).
The various temperature records at the
thousands of irregularly placed measuring
sites around the world indicate a mean
67
30/3/07 08:45:59
 BELLAMY AND BARRETT

Table 1. Results of Modtran calculations for the surface temperature of 15°C, or 288·2 K. accepted ‘natural’ or pre-industrial con-
US standard atmosphere That the surface temperature is higher centration of CO2 of 285 ppmv (parts per
CO2 concentration: Global surface than the emission temperature by 15 + million by volume) is warmer by 9·6°C
ppmv temperature: K
19·5 = 34·5°C gives an estimate for the than in its absence. The widely proph-
0 277·9
global warming that we enjoy and which esied doubling in CO2 concentration to
25 283·2
sustains all life on Earth. 570 ppmv would be associated with an
50 284·1
increase of just 1·5°C. These figures are
100 285·4
200 286·7
Warming contribution of CO2 to be considered with caution since they
represent the instantaneous effects of
285 287·5
One method of estimating the contri- CO2 changes. They do not include the
400 288·2
bution made by the presence of CO2 to ameliorating effects of clouds, nor do they
570 289·0
the total 34·5°C of global warming is by include the eventual global consequences
1000 290·2
the use of the Modtran programme and of the instantaneous changes.
database,3 which contains all the spectral A more direct experimental estimate
The widely information about greenhouse gases and
allows the calculation of fluxes at any alti-
of the effects of CO2 on global warming
may be made from the emission spectra of
prophesied tude, looking downwards to the surface or
upwards towards space.
the Earth as viewed from satellites. One
example is shown in Fig. 3 for the emis-
doubling in CO2 Keeping everything constant except
for the CO2 concentration and consid-
sion over southern Iraq.4
The main region of the spectrum
concentration ering the transfer of energy across the
troposphere at an altitude of 15 km, the
where CO2 absorbs and emits radiation
is 600–725 cm–1, and there are some
to 570 ppmv results of Modtran calculations are given
in Table 1. In each case the temperature
weaker absorptions centred at 597, 648,
741, 791, 961 and 1064 cm−1. These last
would be was reduced until radiative balance was
re-established.
two absorptions overlap with the ozone
absorption that is centred at 1043 cm−1.
associated with As the concentration of CO2 increases,
the absorption of terrestrial infrared radia-
In Fig. 3 the strong absorption characteris-
tic of atmospheric CO2 is clearly indicated
an increase of tion increases in an almost logarithmic
manner. The results of Table 1 can be rep-
by the ‘well’ in the 600–725 cm−1 region.
If CO2 were to be completely removed
just 1·5°C resented by the equation T = 1·93 ln[CO2]
+ 276·7 with a correlation coefficient of
from the atmosphere, the ‘well’ would be
filled in with emissions from water vapour
0·99. and the surface. In such a case the Earth
The data in Table 1 indicate that the would be emitting considerably more
atmosphere with the Earth’s generally radiation than would sustain radiative bal-
ance, and would therefore cool down until
Wavelength: balance was achieved. The extent of the
25 20 18 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 cooling required may be estimated from
140
the area of the ‘well’ compared to the area
300
under the whole emissions spectrum.
120 A detailed consideration of spectra
covering the various regions of the Earth’s
Radiance: mW/m2 sr cm–1

280
100 surface gives an overall contribution to
global warming by CO2 as 7–8°C. When
80 260 the atmospheric concentration of CO2
increases, the ‘well’ becomes a little wider
60 240 because of extra absorption and the sur-
face–atmosphere system has to warm
40 220 slightly to maintain radiative balance.
200
20
Effect of changes in CO2
0
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 The present heated arguments about
Wavenumber: cm –1 the enhancement of global warming
stem from the fact that the pre-industrial
Fig. 3. Satellite measurements of emissions over southern Iraq compared with ‘black body’ emission concentration of CO2 of was around 285
spectra—the ‘well’ between 600 and 700 cm–1 is due to absorption of ground radiation by CO2 ppmv and the present day value is 380

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 CLIMATE STABILITY:
AN INCONVENIENT PROOF

ppmv. Some people question whether this (a) 4

increase is due to human activities, but ARPEGE/OPA2
BMRCa
there is much evidence5 to suggest that it CCSR/NIES
is and that most of the increased produc- CCSR/NIES2

Global temperature change: °C

3 CGCM1
tion occurs in the northern hemisphere, CSIRO Mk2
where most of the people live and use fos- CSM 1.0
sil fuels for energy production. DOE PCM
ECHAM3/LSG
The quest of the climatologists that are 2 ECHAM4/OPYC
represented by the Intergovernmental GFDL_R15_a
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)— GFDL_R30_c
GISS2
which was established in 1988 by the GOALS
1
World Meteorological Organization HadCM2
HadCM3
and the United Nations Environment IPSL-CM2
Programme—is to determine whether MRI1
this increase has caused a warming of the 0 MRI2
Mean
Earth’s surface and by how much.
0 20 40 60 80
Additionally, they have produced a
Years from start of experiment
range of predictions of future surface
temperature changes should the CO2 con- (b) 8
centration attain a value of twice that of ARPEGE/OPA2
BMRCa
the pre-industrial age, namely 570 ppmv. CCSR/NIES
Indeed, a common way for defining the 6 CCSR/NIES2
Global precipitation change: %

CGCM1
sensitivity of the atmosphere is now the CSIRO Mk2
temperature change produced by allowing CSM 1.0
the CO2 concentration to double from its 4 DOE PCM
ECHAM3/LSG
pre-industrial value.6 ECHAM4/OPYC
Figure 4, which is from the Third GFDL_R15_a
Assessment Report of the IPCC,6 shows 2 GFDL_R30_c
GISS2
the calculated temperature changes and GOALS
changes in percentage global precipita- HadCM2
HadCM3
tion for an assumed 1% increase in the 0
IPSL-CM2
concentration of CO2 per annum from MRI1
19 general circulation models, reportedly MRI2
–2 Mean
using the same physics. The doubling of
0 20 40 60 80
CO2 results are those given by the values Years from start of experiment
at 70 years after the start of the experi-
ment. These show that the mean global Fig. 4. Results from 19 general circulation models for (a) future temperatures and (b) future rainfall based
temperature will rise by 1·5°C and that on 1% annual increase in atmospheric CO2 levels leave room for considerable doubt (reproduced with
permission from IPCC)
the global precipitation will rise by 2·2%.

Predictions difficult to rely on hemispheres, as determined by satellite

However, the predictions are in the
range 1–3°C and from – 0·5–5% respec-
tively and so are in considerable doubt.
0.6
measurements8 since 1979, are shown in
Fig. 5. The statistically derived linear trend NH
0.4
lines, not shown on the graphs, are both
positive. The southern hemisphere trend is
Temperature: °C

Indeed, a 1997 paper by Hasselmann7
included predictions from two general
circulation models that the expected
temperature anomaly for 2004 would
be 1–1·2°C or, if sulphate aerosols were
included, 0·55–0·7°C. The actual anomaly
is reported to be 0·45°C. Both general cir-
culation models were considerably wrong
and differed widely in their estimations of
aerosol cooling.
The annual temperatures of the lower
troposphere for the southern and northern
0·003°C a year (with the correlation coef- 0.2
ficient r2 = 0·35) and that for the northern
hemisphere is 0·016°C a year (r2 = 0·03). 0
There is a tendency to use such trends
SH
to predict future temperatures, but only –0.2
non-scientists would dare to extrapolate
the trends to the end of the present centu- –0.4
ry, especially with such low values of r2. It 1975 1985 1995 2005
is quite clear from Fig. 5 that hemispheri- Fig. 5. Mean troposphere temperatures in the
cal temperatures vary considerably over southern (SH) and northern (NH) hemispheres
relatively short timescales and do not vary have fluctuated considerably in the past 30 years,
in a linear manner. making any statistical trends difficult to rely on

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 BELLAMY AND BARRETT
The sensitivity of the atmosphere to
‘forcing’ by greenhouse gases may be
expressed as the number of degrees K of
warming per W/m2 of back radiation. The
IPCC6 recommends the use of the value
0·5 K per W/m2. However, Douglass and
Knox9 have studied records following
the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in
the Philippines and concluded that the
sensitivity is 0·15 ± 0·06 K per W/m2,
around 30% less. Idso10 has described
eight natural experiments, such as vol-
canic eruptions, that have occurred on
the planet and concludes the sensitivity is
in the region of 0·11 K per W/m2, again
much less than the IPCC figure.
A much cruder but similar-order result
can be obtained by dividing the current
amount of global warming of 34·5°C by
the total forcing of 155 W/m2 shown in
Fig. 1, being the difference between the
energy flux emitted by the Earth’s surface
Fig. 6. Solar activity has dramatically increased in recent years. Some think the resulting solar winds
reduce cloud cover on Earth, leading to increased warming and release of dissolved CO2 from oceans
(SOHO–EIT Consortium, ESA, NASA)
70 PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS – CIVIL ENGINEERING, 2007, 160, No. CE2
CE May 07.indd 70
(390 W/m2) and that escaping to space
(235 W/m2). This gives a sensitivity of
0·22 K per W/m2.
The IPCC calculates that doubling
atmospheric CO2 levels will increase forc-
ing by 3·7 W/m2, which means it is diffi-
cult to argue that global temperatures will
increase by more than 0·6–0·8°C from the
pre-industrial era.
The current 34·5°C of global warm-
ing is produced by the full effects of the
greenhouse gases and their consequent
feedbacks. As such, it does not seem cor-
rect to incorporate an extra feedback from
water vapour, as do the IPCC general cir-
culation models.
Solar activity and climate change
The possibility that natural climate
changes are influenced by changes in the
solar wind has been practically ignored by
the IPCC. Soon et al.11 have concluded
that the climate change occurring in the
twentieth century is 70% attributable to
variations in the sun and its effectiveness
on the atmosphere, that greenhouse gases
are responsible for only about 30% of the
warming observed.
Usoskin et al.12 have shown that the late
twentieth century and current high activity
level of the sun is very unusual over the last
7000 years (Fig. 6). The theory of the effect
of solar activity on climate is still being
developed but, briefly, it is that the solar
wind is fashioned by the Earth’s magnetic
field into a shield against the general bom-
bardment from space by cosmic rays. The
stronger solar wind offers better protec-
tion against the incoming particles that are
partially the cause of nucleation of clouds.
When the solar wind is strong, there is less
cloud cover and the Earth’s climate system
warms, and vice versa.
An example of what appears to be a
relationship between sunspot incidence
and surface temperature is shown in Fig.
7. The temperatures of central England
represent a long record; the temperature
and sunspot data are those supplied by the
Hadley Centre and NASA respectively.
Veizer13 has written a comprehensive
review of proxy data of solar activity and
temperature changes over the last four
billion years. He suggests that the sun
mainly drives the climate, and he refers
in particular to the work of Svensmark
and Friis-Christensen14 on the connection
between Earth surface temperatures and
solar wind intensity.
When sunspot numbers are high, the
solar wind becomes more intense, and
sunspot activity has increased generally
over the twentieth century as shown in
200 10.0
Sunspot number 9.8
Temperature: °C
Sunspot number
150
9.6
100 CET 9.4
9.2
50
9.0
0 8.8
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Fig. 7. There appears to be a direct relation-
ship between sunspot numbers and central
England temperatures (CET) over the past 250
years—yet the potential effects of solar activity
are ignored in climate-prediction models
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 CLIMATE STABILITY:
AN INCONVENIENT PROOF

Fig. 7. Veizer13 suggests that the concomi-
tant warming may be the main reason for
the increase in CO2. This is probably an
exaggeration, but warming will certainly
reduce the solubility of CO2 in the oceans.
This is a critically important point and
one which needs to be settled as quickly
as possible to avoid society attempting to
make what could be largely unnecessary
reductions in CO2 emissions.
Veizer13 also makes the point that the
IPCC uses positive water vapour feed-
back as an amplifying mechanism, while
Svensmark and Friis-Christensen14 use
solar wind as their amplification factor
with respect to cloud formation.
Effects of clouds
Figure 8, also from the Third Assessment
Report of the IPCC,6 shows the variable
results from ten models for the latitudinal
distribution of cloudiness and includes
observed data for comparison. These do
not inspire confidence in their usage in pre-
dicting future climate changes.
Wild15 describes the input parameters of
20 general circulation models concerned
with solar radiation. The incoming radia-
tion absorbed by the atmosphere varies
from 58 to 87 W/m2; that absorbed by
the surface varies from 148 to 180 W/m2.
These are important quantities and, with
the published variations, it is not surpris-
ing that the eventual results differ greatly.
These are the calculations on which future
climate predictions are based and do not
offer a great deal of confidence in their
present state.
The general circulation models all as-
sume some positive water vapour feed-
back, on the basis that more water vapour
appears as the result of enhanced warming
and this in turn absorbs more terrestrial
radiation and increases the warming.
Some data are available16 for the Atlan-
tic Ocean during 1950–1972. These data
are plotted as percentages of the mean of
the 1950 and 1970 values on Fig. 9, which
also shows the annual concentrations of
CO2 at Mauna Loa in Hawaii. It would
seem that there is no correlation between
the two sets of data, with the trend of the
humidity data being negative at around
–4% per annum.
The same humidity data are plotted to-
gether with the global temperatures for the
period in Fig. 10. There is a much better
correlation between humidity and tem-
perature, as might be expected from the
variation of Henry’s Law coefficients with
temperature rather than with the CO2 con-
centration. In the 1950–1970 period, the
surface temperature decreased although
the CO2 concentration was increasing.
Other effects of CO2 change
Less than half of the CO2 produced
by burning fossil fuels remains in the
Earth’s atmosphere. The majority is either
absorbed by the oceans or used in extra
photosynthesis,17 both having benefits for
the biomass in the two regions. The extra
greening of the Earth affects the ‘albedo’—
the fraction of the solar radiation reflected
into space which therefore does not par-
ticipate in the greenhouse effect—and is a
negative feedback. Green matter reflects
more energy than brown stuff.
Other feedbacks include the positive
feedback from extra water vapour asso-
ciated with higher temperatures. Extra
water vapour would increase the extent

130 330
100 Humidity CO2/ppmv
325
Humidity: %

90

CO2: ppmv
110
320
80 315
90
70 310
Total cloudiness: %

70 305
60 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970

50 Fig. 9. There appears to be no relationship

between humidity fluctuations and CO2 con-
40 centrations in the period 1950–1972, a period
when global temperatures declined (humidity
30 figures are a percentage of the mean figures
for 1950 and 1970)
20

10
Temperature anomaly: °C

130 0.2
% Humidity Temperature
0 anomaly/°C 0.1
90N 60N 30N EQ 30S 60S 90S
Humidity: %

110
Latitude 0
–0.1
90
Observations DNM NRL –0.2
BMRC LMD SUNGEN
70 –0.3
CNRM MPI YONU 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970
DERF MRI
Fig. 10. There is a much better correlation
between humidity fluctuations and global
Fig. 8. Results from ten general circulation models for global distributions of cloud coverage compared with temperature anomalies in the period 1950–
observed data (black line) again do not inspire confidence (reproduced with permission from IPCC) 1972, with both showing a slight decline

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 BELLAMY AND BARRETT
of absorption of terrestrial radiation and
contribute to enhance global warming, but
it would also compete with CO2 because
there is spectral overlap. It would also
contribute to more cloudiness and more
rainfall, the extra cloudiness also affecting
the albedo in such a way as to reduce the
effectiveness of the solar radiation, a nega-
tive feedback.
There must be a balancing of the posi-
tive and negative feedbacks over real time
otherwise we would have a runaway situ-
ation, and that does not seem to be hap-
pening. Such runaway would only possibly
occur if the infrared window was to be
closed, as it is on Venus, and this is not
possible on Earth.
Recent surveys18 give the Earth’s
reserves of fossil fuels as those in Table
2. Data for the emissions of CO2 from
fossil fuel burning indicate that for
every Gt of carbon burned, the atmos-
pheric CO2 concentration increases by
0·47 ppmv. Applying this factor to the
oil reserves indicates that the atmos-
pheric CO2 concentration would increase
by 69 ppmv if they were to be com-
pletely used up. Burning all the natural
gas would supply another increase of
152 ppmv. Such actions would increase
the CO2 concentration from today’s level
of 380 ppmv to 501 ppmv, still consider-
ably short of the benchmark double value
of 570 ppmv.
To produce the remaining 69 ppmv
CO2, some 173 Gt of coal would have to
be burned. More oil and gas reserves will
be established or made more economically
accessible, but it is clear that the atmos-
pheric CO2 concentration is attainable at
a very high cost to fuel reserves. It might
be expected that some alternative energy
sources would be developed before such
depletion became serious.
Conclusions
Additional atmospheric CO2 should
cause an enhancement of the greenhouse
effect, but a doubling from the pre-indus-
trial value of 285 ppmv will not produce
serious warming and it is doubtful whether
there are sufficient reserves of fossil fuels
to reach that particular target by the end of
this century.
The predictions of future climate
changes by the general circulation models
72 PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS – CIVIL ENGINEERING, 2007, 160, No. CE2
CE May 07.indd 72
of the IPCC are associated with several Table 2. Fossil fuel reserves
serious uncertainties and cannot be relied Fuel Reserves: Gt Reserves in carbon: Gt
upon to give sufficient backing for any Oil 175 147
forward planning that would affect tech- Natural gas 431 323
nology and business. The climate system Coal 984 836
is a highly complex system and, to date,
no computer models are sufficiently accu-
rate for their predictions of future climate
to be relied upon.
What is clear, however, is that the
world’s energy resources are dwindling
and should be used prudently and with
proper respect of the environment.
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