Future public policy guidelines for the

sustainable development of Guaviare,

Colombia for the year 2035
José Luis Camarena, Francisco Javier Osorio Vera, Hector Heraldo Rojas Jimenez,
Ernesto Borda Medina, Juan Camilo Esteban Torregroza and Jesu
s David Tabares-Valencia

Abstract José Luis Camarena and

Purpose – This paper aims to propose future public policy guidelines (FPPG) in sustainable regional Francisco Javier Osorio
development for Guaviare (Colombia) – a territory affected by environmental and social distress – for the Vera are both based at the
year 2035. School of Management,
Design/methodology/approach – Following collective action theory and sustainable regional Universidad Externado de
development literature, a foresight exercise was conducted using site focus groups and semi-structured Colombia, Gran Granada,
interviews with local participants to identify future strategic change drivers and the most relevant social
Colombia.
actors for the attainment of economic, social and environmental development in the Guaviare through
Hector Heraldo Rojas
FPPG.
Jimenez is based at the
Findings – The findings suggest that the development of public policies regarding building consensus
around Guaviare’s economic, environmental and social issues, reducing conflict between the region’s School of Finance and
cultural and environmental ways, decreasing isolation from the centers of decision-making, increasing International Relations,
the transparency of public institutions and reducing insecurity to attract investments are all crucial to Universidad Externado de
attaining sustainable regional development. Colombia, Gran Granada,
Originality/value – Interdisciplinarity is implicit in the local perspectives on the problem that Colombia.
impedes sustainable development in San José del Guaviare. The paper’s main contribution is the Ernesto Borda Medina is
long-term vision that breaks away from the traditional short-termism in public policy guidelines in based at Universidad
a Latin American context. Methodologically, the significant contribution is the convergent Externado de Colombia,
alignment of specific foresight methods toward public policy guidelines’ analysis and design Gran Granada, Colombia.
processes.
Juan Camilo Esteban
Keywords Colombia, Guaviare, Public policy guidelines, Sustainable regional development, Torregroza is based at the
Territorial foresight
School of Management,
Paper type Research paper Universidad Externado de
Colombia, Gran Granada,
Colombia.
1. Introduction Jesu
s David Tabares-
Regional development thinking understands that the answers and solutions to problems Valencia is based at
Universidad de los Andes,
within a local environment must come from collaboration, co-creation and innovation
Bogota, DC, Colombia.
(Uyarra et al., 2017) and the transformation and coordination of local actors (Blažek and
Hampl, 2009). Regional development acknowledges the need for enabling conditions to
coordinate meta processes that are sustainable, inclusive and can be replicated in other
environments while valuing ancestral knowledge (Nina et al., 2019) and recognizing holistic
capacities and the need to go from local to global.

The Guaviare Department of Colombia is a region whose development capacity is hindered

by multiple causes (Pulido, 2011), which led to consequences that can be categorized
Received 10 March 2021
according to the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable Revised 22 July 2021
development (SD) (Elkington, 2004). Among the leading causes is the internal armed Accepted 30 August 2021

DOI 10.1108/FS-03-2021-0069 © Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 j FORESIGHT j

 conflict, which is a constant situation in Colombia since the 1960s (Rodriguez and Sanchez,
2012) and is one of the longest-running conflicts globally, surpassed only by the Israeli-
Palestinian and Indo-Pakistani conflicts (Camacho and Rodriguez, 2013). The Colombian
internal armed conflict has caused adverse effects on Colombians’ quality of life and health,
for instance, high homicide rates, forced internal displacement, kidnapping and the use of
antipersonnel mines that are still buried in some regions (Franco et al., 2006). Internal
conflicts in the country caused changes in the land-use dynamics, such as deforestation,
due to illicit agriculture and illegal mining (Landholm et al., 2019).
Corruption in political spheres, which is a situation that is frequently seen in Latin-American
Governments (Transparency International, 2016) hampers the economic development of
regions (Poveda, 2015; Poveda et al., 2019) due to practices such as bribery and
embezzlement of public funds. For instance, when studying Guaviare’s political culture,
Romero Garcı́a (2021) found that political patronage practices were standard.
Next, the lack of infrastructure is another critical aspect that prevents the region from
thriving economically, due in part to the territory’s distance from major cities; also, the
scarcity of roads in optimal conditions limits the trade between the region’s products
internally and internationally. According to the National Administrative Department of
Statistics [DANE in Spanish] in 2019, the Department of Guaviare represented 0.1% of the
Colombian gross domestic product (US$323,615.98m), which contrasts with regions such
as Bogota
Capital District (25.8%) and Antioquia (14.5%) which are the two most productive
in the country [Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadı́stica (DANE), 2021].
Moreover, the historical colonization of the territory led to relying on extensive livestock
farming and agriculture that generated deforestation of the Amazon forest and established
large state models that led to inequity between peasants and landowners (Taborda, 2002).
Figure 1 shows the problem tree for the territory under study.
The main environmental consequences are the exploitation of the Amazon rainforest, the
decrease in biodiversity and pollution (Clerici et al., 2020; Rodrı́guez-de-Francisco et al.,
2021); the Guaviare Department lost 6,892 hectares of jungle in 2014; 9,634 hectares in
2015; 11,456 hectares in 2016; and 38,221 hectares in 2017. According to the Report of

Figure 1 Problem tree of regional sustainable development in Guaviare, Colombia

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Surface Covered by Natural Forests of the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and
Environmental Studies’ monitoring system of forests and carbon (IDEAM, 2019); the main
social consequences are the forced displacement of people (Curcio et al., 2019) and
conflicts because of the acculturation of the indigenous population (Del Cairo, 2011) and
stagnation in education. As for the economic consequences, the unproductivity of the
primary sector and the decreased export capacities limited to products of low added value
hinder the region’s participation in global value chains (Garcı́a-Muñoz, 2019).
From the 2000s onwards, the Colombian Government’s efforts to incentivize the region’s
development have been paternalistic and short-sighted, targeting symptoms but not the
core of the problem (Del Cairo and Montenegro-Perini, 2015; Go
mez-Chiquiza and Duque-
Martı́nez, 2009). As an innovative tool for creating public policy guidelines, foresight
methodology is used, which helps understand the short-termism issues related to the
decision-making process marked by uncertainty and the inability to identify incentives that
promote collective action for a sustained period (Mariñez et al., 2012).
In this context, foresight and its methods strengthen the decision-making process as they
help create knowledge, build consensus and develop anticipation abilities (Habegger,
2009). These elements are essential for the public administration to face and grasp from a
normative standpoint to ensure development through a transformation using public policy
design and action planning.
Bitar (2016) highlights that foresight strengthens the activity of politicians based on the
following aspects:
䊏 the need to communicate with leadership a new vision of the future;
䊏 the construction of consensus with a long-term vision of the future;
䊏 the generation of political support by spreading bold ideas for the future;
䊏 the proposal of domestic policies that consider external factors;
䊏 the identification of social demands from a multidisciplinary perspective; and
䊏 the generation of innovative images of the long-term future.
Following the points made above and based on collective action theory, sustainable and
regional development, the paper aims to develop guidelines for developing long-term
public policy to foster the social, economic and environmental development of Guaviare
(Colombia) for the year 2035. The proposed methodology to achieve this is a territorial
foresight exercise carried out with the participation of the local community.

1.1 The Guaviare Department

The Department of Guaviare is located in the southeast of Colombia, to the north of the
Colombian Amazon. It has an area of 53,460 km2. It is a peripheral territory that has been
affected by the Colombian armed conflict and various forms of illegal economic activities,
particularly coca cultivation (Arcila et al., 1999; Ávila, 2011; Tarazona, 2007). The
department’s territory is predominantly rural, and it is the ancestral home to many
indigenous groups of the Amazon rainforest and the scenario of severe cases of
deforestation because of productive activities, both legal – such as rubber cultivation and
extensive livestock farming – and illegal (i.e. coca cultivation and illegal mining). Activities
that caused violence toward peasants and settlers, but especially against the indigenous
people. Additionally, a depletion of the forest resources was generated as a function of the
established demand in the market and the interest in producing new crops such as coca,
whose production expanded between 1978 and 1985, the cultivation areas were
transformed.

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 Said dynamics generated existing businesses expansion and the aperture of new
establishments and supplies for the transformation of the coca leaf, such as herbicides,
tools, plastics, machines, blade shredders and vast amounts of gasoline. Meanwhile, the
legal peasant economy diminished its chances for success as it is difficult to compete in the
national market due to the high costs of inputs, transportation and the quality of the soils of
the tropical forest is not appropriate for agricultural production (Garcı́a, 1995).
Figure 2 is a map of Colombia where the location of the Guaviare Department is highlighted
in light brown color, while its capital, San José, is shown as a red dot.
The Guaviare region contains Farmer Reserve Zones, Amazon Forest Reserve Areas
stipulated by Colombian Law 2 of 1959, indigenous reserves, natural parks, areas for the
education and reincorporation of ex-combatants created through the peace accord with the
extant Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) guerilla group, as well as
areas of sped up agricultural, livestock and agro-industrial expansion (Garcı́a-Muñoz,
2019).
The problem at hand is so highly complex that the government alone cannot solve it. Hence,
it is essential to create public policy that conjoins business mechanisms and SD (Hall, 1999)
for the strategic and rational use of Guaviare’s natural resources based on a long-term
vision built upon collective participation and appropriation.

2. Theoretical framework
2.1 Collective action theory
Decision-making processes regarding land use in Latin America have not followed the logic
of individual interests subordinated to the common good. This process is a crucial element
to consider in the entire process of territorial planning (Sandoval, 2014).

Figure 2 San José del Guaviare’s location in the Colombian Republic

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In the specific case of territorial ordering in rural areas, the opinions of the civil population
are frequently not considered (Arsel et al., 2016). Leading not only to social problems – the
perception of conflicts of interest in using natural and public resources (Ostrom et al., 2012) –
but also to suboptimal economic results by privileging individual over collective profit and
overlooking the need to seek a function of social well-being that maximizes societal benefits
(Arrow, 1951).
According to collective action theory, individuals do not spontaneously and rationally look
for the collective good beyond their interests but try to maximize their benefit, ignoring
possible collective goals. Olson (1965, 1991, 1992) and Ostrom and Ostrom (1999)
contend that there is no possible altruism in attaining social action toward the common
good. Individuals collaborate based on positive incentives that they can appreciate in the
short and medium-term.
This theoretical premise leads to the idea that the government is the actor that defines the
incentives that promote collective action and public well-being. Thus, in the empirical realm,
practical processes of citizens’ inclusion in decision-making are rarely undertaken (Malena,
2009; Waheduzzaman et al., 2018) and are marked by a lack of transparency and
representativeness, hence a lack of legitimacy too. Thus, two significant causes limit
collective action in a territory:

1. failing to consider public opinion; and

2. the government’s denial of the importance of social participation in governance, a
fundamental principle of collective action (Vargas-Lama and Osorio-Vera, 2020).
Hence, it is crucial to consider the concept of territorial ethics, understood based on
efficiency and equity, where the government as a promoting agent plays a central role on
different governance levels of public administration (Osorio-Vera, 2008). There is a
prevalent global trend of increasing social participation in territorial planning with
democratic governments to promote participative practices, translating into political gains
(Angeon and Lardon, 2008; Vernby, 2013).

2.2 Sustainable development

The concept of SD is rooted in providing answers to a dilemma where opposed first sight
objectives collide: economic growth, environmental conservation and social progress
(Elkington, 1994). SD transcends the antagonistic understanding defined above and
proposes the possibility of common attainment of all three objectives – especially given the
challenge of overcoming poverty.
The United Nations World Summit (2005) refers to economic, social and environmental
development as interdependent and mutually reinforcing pillars. The roadmap for the
integral and balanced attainment of development is currently found in the United Nations’
Sustainable Development Goals that are to be attained by the year 2030 (UNDP, 2021).
SD in Latin America has been carried out in the past 70 years, based on regional
development policies, urban planning, land use planning, decentralization and territorial
development. Territorial planning has been one instrument of greater scope used in this
region of the world to intervene on territories, especially land use plans (Massiris Cabeza,
2011).
The SD concept has been well-received in the design of public policies as obviously, any
initiative must be sustainable in principle; therefore, there is a relationship between foresight
and SD, and both perspectives point toward development that ensures positive change for
extension, growth, progress with a long-term vision of time (Destatte, 2010). In Andersen
and Andersen (2017), the concept of inclusion is highlighted as a necessary condition to
promote SD through foresight. Thus, being inclusive in the ex-ante design process of

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 policymaking processes affects the actual process, focusing on policy effectiveness and
the transformation of the territorial system. The author highlights: “From the perspective of
evolutionary economics, learning and innovation are the most important developmental
processes. Therefore including people in learning and innovation activities is a central part
of inclusive development” (2017, p. 227).
The idea of combining sustainability, foresight and innovation systems with studying
inclusive development is based on OECD evidence that broadens the concept of social,
industrial and territorial inclusion in innovation systems (Paunov, 2013). Andersen and
Andersen (2017) recognizes that the generation of policies and strategies from foresight is
a continuous, reflective, distributed and interactive learning process, and wherein the global
learning economy has no universal formula to promote sustainable economic development.
The author points out that given such complexity in the process’s design, it is imperative to
start systematic experimentation with policies and institutions to promote a sensible strategy
for SD. For this, it is essential to consider the key actors (due to their legal competencies,
power of action and political will) for they can contribute with their tacit knowledge
according to their experience in dialogue and decision-making processes to create socially
sound solutions and in the face of new technologies.
Finally, concerning the promotion of SD with a long-term vision, Nagimov et al. (2018)
highlight that: “for the management of socio-ecological and economic processes in a
region, it is necessary to develop and use a strategic approach.” (2018, p. 742). The
relevance of the common objective and priority issues for regional development are key
components, these components can only be generated with sensible management
decisions oriented to a long-term vision. For this, the foresight paradigm is necessary
besides its methods to achieve a shared vision of goals and objectives of competitiveness
to contribute to SD.

2.3 Regional development

Regional development theory emerged from several intellectual traditions. Neoclassical
trade theory and growth theory provides the conceptual basis for understanding whether
regional economies will become more similar or more differentiated (Dawkins, 2003).
Theories of regional growth are of fundamental importance for understanding the process of
growth and understanding inter-and intraregional inequities and asymmetries, that is,
divergent development (Gutierrez, 2006 in Dawkins, 2003). Economic development is not
based only on the ability to acquire technology but also depends on the innovator of the
productive system of each territory (Aydalot, 1986).
The alternative development school was chosen for the current analysis as it has an
increasingly multidisciplinary perspective for the analysis of development that includes
disciplines such as geography, sociology, psychology, anthropology, business
management, finance, international relationships and communications (Hidalgo-Capita
n,
2011). Also, it is important to mention three proposals of regional development by Boisier
(2016), Arocena (2001) and Alburquerque (2004).
For Boisier (2016), the regional sphere makes sense when seen “from outside and from
above,” and so regions make up local spaces when seen from the perspective of the
country, just like provinces are local when seen from the standpoint of regions and so are
communes from the perspective of provinces. The local is a concept related to a broader
space. The local cannot be analyzed without referring to the broader space where it is
located, that is to say, the region. Meanwhile, Arocena (2001) states that regional
development processes are only possible if there is a high degree of social integration.
Overcoming all forms of exclusion is both a condition and a result of these processes.
Alburquerque suggests that the strategy of concentrating development is neither the only
existing nor the only possible one: “other ‘bottom-up’ development fuzzy strategies and

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grounded in factors that are not only economic but also social, cultural and territorial are
decisively important, especially in terms of employment and territory” (2004, p. 15). Local
development mobilizes various actors to adapt to outer forces as a collective, cultural and
regional identity (Pecqueur, 1989). Also, local development serves a new dynamic
economy characterized by a general interest in quality (Wachter, 1987).
According to Gusmanov et al. (2020), the algorithm of strategic planning of rural
development designed with the application of foresight methodology is based on the
formulation of the rural areas mission, hierarchical goal-setting, analysis of socioeconomic
problems of rural development and their ranking. Strategic planning of rural development
based on foresight methodology will improve the quality of a decision-making process at
the municipal and regional levels of government. It will become possible to develop in time
measures to reduce the imbalance between different layers of rural residents, reduce rural
society stratification and make odds even in the rural areas’ society.
Peterson et al. (2003 in Allington et al., 2018) suggested that scenario planning is a method of
thinking strategically about the future in situations of high complexity and uncertainty and low
controllability. The approach has its origins in business and the military (Schoemaker, 1995) but
has been applied across various sectors, including recently to conservation and natural
resource management (Allington et al., 2018). In addition, scenario planning has emerged as a
means for consensus building in social-ecological systems where several stakeholders may
have different priorities and expectations for the future (Nieto-Romero et al., 2016).

2.4 Integration of theoretical perspectives

Figure 3 emerges from considering the stated problem and the theoretical approaches
described in the theoretical frameworks section, integrating the above elements.
The starting point is collective action theory as the theoretical paradigm that explains the
consensual creation of a strategic agenda. On the margins, regional and SD are the pillars
that sustain the configuration of the public policy guidelines to promote Guaviare’s regional
development. The integrated theoretical and methodological proposal is the blueprint for
the exercise of territorial foresight.

3. Methodological framework
In Amanatidou (2014), it is recognized that in matters of participatory governance, a generic
methodological framework can be used perfectly adaptable to the specific objectives that

Figure 3 Integrated theoretical and methodological proposal

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 are being pursued; the important thing is to promote collective action for SD from the
foresight perspective.
Amanatidou (2014) shows that the primary effects of foresight are a function of; the creation
of knowledge, construction of work networks and the promotion of public participation in the
formulation of policies related to the value of knowledge, to growth driven by innovation and
to the consequences of a risk society. This work is built on an analytical framework that
considers the characteristics and conditions of a participatory society and the existing
evaluation approaches and concepts from collective action, SD and regional development.
Methodologically, the significant contribution in this article is the alignment proposal applied
with a convergent sense of specific foresight methods toward the processes of analysis and
design of public policy guidelines proposed by Bardach and Patashnik (2019).
Table 1 shows the paradigm and the components that characterize public policy and
foresight approaches. The most notable for the public policy is the institutional, normative,
causal perspective, the relevance of the public problem, the cost-benefit argument,
consensus and the short-term perspective.
Regarding the foresight paradigm, what stands out is the collective action perspective
based on the cognitive component of opinion experts under an arrangement of rationality to
goals and values (Weber, 2017) where the quality of the decision is centered on the
relevance of the collective (social) problem, systemic, normative, strategic approach and
the ability to anticipate with a long-term vision. Additionally, the simplicity of the
methodology in its structuring and application process for a rural context and the
participation of local agents as opinion experts and the use of their social, human and
cognitive capital, recognized as soft capital in a territory (Massiris Cabeza, 2011).
To organize the territory, the public policymaker and the planner face the dilemma of solving
in the long-term the behavior of highly dynamic variables, which are part of a system prone
to constant and forceful changes. The foresight from its methodology enables the way to
create representations of futures and the path that leads to their achievement (Godet, 2000).
Designing public policy guidelines uses a series of qualitative methods to recognize in the
evolution of a situation; the manifestations of discontinuities and ruptures to guide decision-
making what to do (and what not to do) and estimate the consequences of the decisions
and actions carried out in the present (Miklos and Arroyo, 2012).
The present article includes foresight tools such as competency tree, Delphi method, expert
panels, structural analysis, actor analysis and morphological analysis, Régnier’s Abacus,
Peter Schwartz axes, scenario sensitivity analysis, importance and governance (IGO)
method (Bardach and Patashnik, 2019; Ga
ndara-Fierro, 2015; Ga

ndara and Osorio Vera,
2014; Godet, 2000; Godet et al., 2008; Ringland and Schwartz, 1998) applied to the

Table 1 Relationship between the key characteristics of public policy and foresight design thinking
Public policy Foresight

Analysis and design paradigm Analysis and design paradigm

The institutional quality of the decision is based on: The collective quality of the decision is based on:
Respect for public values The expert cognitive perspective
Legal norms of life in society Subjective perspective (unique)
Arrangement of rationality toward – aims and values
The public decision implies that its components (institutional and A foresight exercise implies in its components (the cognitive and the
technical) are: normative):
Interdependent and complementary analysis Creativity and systemic analysis
Argumentative stance Argumentative stance
Consensus and legitimacy Consensus and legitimacy
Pragmatic and short-term perspective Long-term vision
Note: Own elaboration

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exploration of a territory’s future scenarios and public policy design. Previous research has
used these methods for building desirable futures (Amer et al., 2013; Ferna
ndez-Güell and
Redondo, 2012), identifying key actors and stakeholders (Coates, 2010), and working
toward urban and territorial development (Bina and Ricci, 2016; Dixon et al., 2018;

ndez-Güell and Gonza
Ferna
lez Lo

pez, 2016).
Everything is projected to the year 2035 to coincide with the United Nations’ 2030
sustainable development goals and the subsequent four presidential terms (2020 to 2035).
The proposed methodological framework is shown in Table 2.
The proposed methodology is not only relevant for a territorial foresight exercise but it is
also convergent while adding value to each of the seven steps of designing a public policy
suggested in Bardach and Patashnik (2019). That helped generate a permanent decision-
making process by the participating agents from the generation of information, collective
reflection and consensus that finally gave legitimacy to the entire process.

3.1 Participants
In this research, the determination of the sample of participants had to be based on opinion
leaders, which represent part of the total population. Since, in this qualitative research, the
following factors were faced; lack of local human resources, high economic costs and
dispersion of the population. In this sense, the sampling was a convenience non-
probabilistic method.
The snowball method was used as it allowed access to difficult-to-contact and prominent
actors as opinion experts for the research, and also because it takes little time to execute
and allows the researcher to communicate better with the participants as they are known

Table 2 Proposed methodological framework

Public policy design steps

(Bardach and Patashnik, 2019) Foresight methods used The added value that the foresight methods used to generate

1. Definition of the public
problem
2. Obtaining the information
3. Construction of alternatives
4. Criteria selection
5. Projection of results
6. Confronting costs and
benefits
7. Decision-making
Notes:  = The following dimensions were analyzed from a time window from the year 2000 (past) and toward the year 2035 (future)
Source: Own elaboration based on Bardach and Patashnik (2019), Godet (2000), Godet et al. (2007), Ringland and Schwartz (1998),

ndara and Osorio (2014)
Ga
Stage 1. State of the art
Competency tree
(Godet, 2000)
Stage 2. Change drivers,
strategic variables and common
objectives
Delphi method; focus groups
Structural analysis
Actor analysis
(Godet et al., 2008)
Stage 3. Morphological analysis
(Godet et al., 2008)
Stage 4. Regnier’s abacus
(Godet et al., 2008)
Stage 5. Peter Schwartz axes
(Ringland and Schwartz, 1998)
Stage 6. Scenario Sensitivity
Analysis (Godet, 2000)
Stage 7. IGO method –
importance and governance
(Ga
ndara and Osorio Vera,
2014)
Local and global contextualization (perspective of
governmental, social, business and NGO actors)
Economic – Environmental diagnosis
Trend analysis identification
Strategic analysis (SWOT) – accuracy of the public problem
Main trends and influential factors toward 2035
Strategic variables of the public problem
Relations of power and collaboration between actors and the
alternatives of alliances toward the common objectives
concerning the public problem
Significant future hypotheses that are plausible, consistent
and viable by 2035
Significant thematic axes that guide the next stage of
collective reflection on the possible future events toward 2035
Alternative futures; from possible events that express
favorable and unfavorable conditions for the long-term future
Alternative long-term future events toward the bet scenario
Public policy guidelines based on the territorial foresight
analysis and their relationship to SDGs

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 actors from the first sample participants. The first sample is linked to the researcher, and
this form of networking allowed contacting unwilling people to reveal their own identity for
confidentiality reasons, but they were valuable as participants (Ghaljaie et al., 2017).
The sampling included a careful selection of participants in which an initial mapping was
carried out through an interview with one of the co-authors, a native from the region, who
worked in different public offices and oversaw the invitations process. Following the
cumulative principle of the snowball, it was possible to identify other interlocutors. The first
contact took place mainly through messages from email and, subsequently, referral
referrals. There were telephone contacts, internet searches and telephone confirmation.
Finally, the participants received a formal invitation letter via email.
The social construction is directly related to inter-subjectivism, implying a relationship
between subjectivities that build an agreement or social construct in their interrelatedness
(Fuller and Loogma, 2009). Intersubjectivity is defined as the capacity to create a shared
experience in episodes of joint activity (Mascolo and Kallio, 2020). Each participant
contributed from their perspective as businesspeople, representatives of the tourism
industry and the public sector, forcibly displaced individuals because of the conflict,
entrepreneurs, former ranchers who are aware of the destruction caused by livestock
farming, FARC’s ex-combatants, settlers or descendants of settlers and immigrants such as
foreigners working for NGOs (Appendix 1). However, most of the contributors were mainly
inhabitants of the Guaviare concerned over the future of their territory.

3.2 Data collection and validation

Data collection was carried out in two ways. First, secondary data was researched by
reviewing pertinent literature about sustainable regional development in scientific
databases such as Scopus and ISI Web of Science; also, context information about the
study region was searched in official Colombian Government databases (i.e. DANE,
Historical Memory Center) and multilateral organizations reports (i.e. UNHCR, UNDP).
Second, primary data was collected via two participative sessions with fewer than 20
people each. Every participant voiced their in-depth opinion regarding one or various topics
as defined by the group moderator.
The research approach is qualitative with a descriptive and argumentative scope using a
non-experimental design. The fieldwork was carried out between September 4th and 6th of
2019 in San José del Guaviare, Colombia. Two data-gathering techniques were used: semi-
structured interviews and focus groups (Bryman, 2015). Semi-structured interviews are
based on a list of topics and their uniqueness resides in that the interviewer is free to add
more questions or propose more topics to gather additional information. Experts from the
business sector of San José del Guaviare and strategic actors were surveyed to know the
status quo and build a vision for the future – for the year 2035 – and then, with this input,
generate public policy guidelines for regional development.
Data validation was conducted through expert opinion (Slocumb and Cole, 1991) where the
workshops’ participants helped the research team in complementing and validating the
information collected from secondary sources such as the Guaviare’s Problem Tree’s
current causes and effects, the key change factors for the region’s regional development
and the Guaviare’s relevant actor system.

4. Procedure and results

4.1 Stage I. State-of-the-art – analysis of local context and environment diagnosis
with trend analysis
The state-of-the-art implied the development of an environment and trend diagnosis using
the competency tree method using secondary sources to determine the change drivers that

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have positively or negatively affected the territorial and SD of the Guaviare Department.
Finally, with a strategic analysis (SWOT), it was possible to delimit the Public Problem with
accuracy: Unsustainable development in San José del Guaviare.

4.2 Stage II. Change drivers, strategic variables and common objectives around the
public problem
Through a review of the literature, these were classified into nine spheres comprising 20
categories, resulting in 87 drivers of change which were validated with the opinion of experts
(using a Delphi questionnaire, focus groups), these were reduced to 27 factors corresponding
to 11 categories (Table 3), which constituted the input for the structural analysis.

4.3 Stage II (cont.). Structural analysis

The 27 factors were processed using LIPSOR’s MICMAC software to perform a structural
analysis (Godet, 2000). The result of the analysis was identifying the influence between the
factors that highlight the strategic topics that define the functional structure of the system – The
Public Problem on unsustainable development in San José del Guaviare. The factor list was
validated through a focus group session with 11 participants from diverse economic sectors.
Figure 4 shows all the system’s variables in a Cartesian plane, which refers to the interaction
between the two axes: influence (ordinates) and dependence (abscissas). The plane shows

Table 3 Variables used for the structural analysis

Category # Variable

Business climate 1 Few financing sources for new ventures

2 Fear of coexisting with crime and delinquency
Public administration 3 Lack of political commitment to promoting the development
4 Lack of transparency and accountability in government agencies
5 Instability of public policy at the local level
6 Low social participation in public decision-making
Vices of public administration 7 Low local institutional capacity
8 Political isolation from centers of power
Illegal economy 9 Rise and consolidation of illegal economies
10 Historical colonization by legal and illegal economies
11 Corruption and institutional co-optation by illegal groups
12 A region that expels and receives people due to violence or economic
reasons
13 FARC demobilization
14 Reintegration of ex-combatants into the economy
15 Displacement and historical victimization of ethnic groups
Lack of regional development 16 Uprootedness and low social capital
Use of land 17 The conflict between the environmental and cultural ways of the territory
18 Transformation of forests into savannas
Economic model 19 Large estate model
20 Global demand for Guaviare products and services [including non-
wood forest products (NWFP)]
21 Lack of science, research and technology
22 Deficiencies in strategic infrastructure (production, public utilities and
communications)
23 The accelerated destruction of environmental resources
SDGs 24 Colombia’s commitment to the sustainable development goals
25 Biodiversity richness
The attraction of foreign investors 26 The interest of multinational companies in exploiting resources in the
Amazon region
Lack of development notion 27 Lack of a unified vision of development and a desirable future
Source: Own elaboration

j FORESIGHT j
 the most influential variables and the most dependent variables that reflect the effects within
the system. Therefore, it is necessary to focus the attention on the upper-right quadrant.
At the lower end of Figure 4, the system’s variables correspond to each of the SD dimensions,
where the purple color represents the economic domain (n = 11), the orange color the social
variables (n = 8). Finally, the green color corresponds to variables related to the environment (n = 8).
The strategic variables resulting from the analysis are eight:

1. V27) Lack of a unified vision of development and a desirable future.

2. V9) Historical colonization by legal and illegal economies.

3. V8) Rise and consolidation of illegal economies.

4. V7) Political isolation from centers of power.

Figure 4 Results of the structural analysis validated by opinion experts in San José del
Guaviare

j FORESIGHT j
5. V6) Low local institutional capacity.
6. V4) Instability of public policy at the local level.

7. V3) Lack of transparency and accountability in government agencies.

8. V2) Fear of coexisting with crime and delinquency.

The structural analysis with the participation of opinion experts resulted in the variables that
influence the system the most to minimize the effect caused by the dysfunctional promotion
of regional development from the government sphere. The degree of influence shows the
sense of causality; thus, the more the status of each strategic variable improves, the more
significant their positive impact on the result variables.

4.4 Stage II (cont.). Actor analysis

Public policy is not only about government affairs but also about the market and societal factors.
Thus, it was necessary to include stakeholders that represent each of these dimensions. After
the context analysis, a list of 62 actors classified into eight categories was obtained: academia,
business associations, multilateral international cooperation organizations, public sector, civil
society, business sector, NGOs and others (Figure 5). The actor list was processed using
LIPSOR’s MACTOR software (Godet et al., 2008) to perform an actor analysis.
The common goals defined based on the analysis and synthesis of each goal of the
identified actors are:

Figure 5 Actors considered for the territorial foresight analysis

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 䊏 Illegal economic activities.
䊏 Environmental conservation.
䊏 Societal control.
䊏 Economic development.
䊏 Sustainable development.
䊏 Training of human resources.
䊏 Wealth creation.
䊏 Regional development research.
䊏 Territorial ordering.
䊏 Social protection/environmental conservation.

Table 4 shows the results of processing the collaboration degree of the system’s actors and
the mobilization toward the goals mentioned above. It also shows which actors had a
mobilization degree above the average (23.7) and the common goals (6 of 10 goals): G4,
G8, G11, G5, G2 and G9. This information helps identify the most popular goals among the
most collaborative actors in the system and so it is a crucial element for the development of
the Guaviare Department’s 2035 agenda.

4.5 Stage III. Morphological analysis

The strategic variables allow generating future hypotheses that are plausible, consistent
and viable by 2035. Significantly optimize the number and quality of future hypotheses that
express significant change toward 2,035 considering the implication of political,
sociocultural, environmental, technological and economic contexts that affect the public
problem. The results of the morphological analysis were input for the consensus rating
generated in the next stage with Régnier’s abacus.

4.6 Stage IV. RÕgnier’s abacus

The abacus facilitates consensus in prioritizing future hypotheses viability (due occurrence
probability) that allows building the significant thematic axes that guide the next stage of
collective reflection on the possible future events toward 2,035. Régnier’s abacus was evaluated
by the group of opinion experts previously stated in the participants’ section (Appendix 1).
Finally, the result of the prioritized hypotheses for each variable provided the context for
defining the thematic axes necessary in the exercise of the next stage – Peter Schwartz’s
axes (Schwartz, 1996). The thematic axes that resulted were defined under a pragmatic
and reductionist principle, where future events are related to the sustainability of natural
resources (given the economic vocation of the region) and the viability of human
development opportunities from the governmental, economic and ordinary citizen life
sphere. Thus, the axes used in the Cartesian plane were: sustainable use of natural
resources (6) and human mobility (6).

4.7 Stage V. Peter Schwartz axes toward the future public policy guidelines for the
sustainable development of Guaviare
This was an exercise undertaken under the governance principle arising from a structured
consultation of agents of change involved in the development of the Guaviare Department to
comprehend their long-term vision – using the method known as Peter Schwartz’s axes (Figure 6).
Peter Schwartz’s axes are presented as a Cartesian plane. The quadrants represent
different contexts where possible events can be identified with the signs (þ/þ) for quadrant

j FORESIGHT j
Table 4 Converging actors toward Guaviare’s strategic goals
Regional
Economic development Sustainable Territorial Environment National peace
development research development ordering conserv. and security
ACTOR Goal 04 Goal 08 Goal 05 Goal 09 Goal 02 Goal 11 Mobilization

1. Social Prosperity 3.3 5 5 5 5 5 49.5

n Amazonı́a
2. Visio 4.3 5.8 4.3 4.3 5.8 4.3 49
3. National Land Agency 5.4 3.6 1.8 5.4 0 5.4 47.2
4. Bioguaviare 3.7 5 3.7 3.7 5 3.7 42.4
5. National Agency for Territory 4.6 3 1.5 4.6 0 4.6 39.4
Renewal
6. Naturlog 2.6 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 38.7
7. Post-conflict Office 4.3 2.9 1.4 4.3 0 4.3 37.6
8. Tres en Circo Corporation 2.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.9 3.7 36.9
9. CorpoCampo 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 2.6 3.9 36.7
10. Public and Private 2.8 4.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 35.2
Universities
11. UN Human Rights Office 4.6 3.1 4.6 3.1 4.6 3.1 33.7
12. Association of Farmers and 2.9 3.9 2.9 2.9 3.9 2.9 33.3
Workers of the Rı́o Guayabero
Region ASCATRAGUA
13. Amazon Institute of 0 4.6 2.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 32.5
Scientific Research (SINCHI)
14. Food and Agriculture 4.4 2.9 4.4 2.9 4.4 2.9 32.1
Organization (FAO)
15. Department of Agriculture 4 4 4 4 4 2.7 31.9
and Environment of Guaviare
16. Asoprocegua 2.9 2.9 2.9 1.5 2.9 4.4 30.7
17. International Center for 2.3 4.7 3.5 2.3 3.5 3.5 30.4
Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
18. Etnollano Foundation 2.6 3.5 2.6 2.6 3.5 2.6 29.9
19. Corporation for the 2.5 2.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 2.5 29.5
Sustainable Development of the
North and East Amazon (CDA)
20. Humboldt Institute 0 4.5 2.2 3.4 2.2 3.4 29.2
21. Association for the 2.9 2.9 4.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 28.9
Sustainable Development of the
Agricultural and Environmental
Sectors Tierra Viva
22. Unit of Agricultural Planning 3.9 2.6 3.9 2.6 3.9 2.6 28.2
(UPRA)
23. FARC (political party) 2.6 1.3 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.8 28.1
24. United Nations 2.2 2.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 27.7
Development Program (UNDP)
25. Labfarve 4.3 2.9 2.9 1.4 2.9 2.9 27.4
26. Guaviare Culture Mixed 1.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 27.2
Fund
27. Departmental Conflict 3 2 1 3 0 3 26.4
Victims Council
28. ESBEC EU 4.1 2.7 2.7 1.4 2.7 2.7 25.8
29. Kahai SAS 4 2.7 2.7 1.3 2.7 2.7 25.4
30. ALSEC 4 2.7 2.7 1.3 2.7 2.7 25.4
31. Association of Ecological 3.3 2.2 3.3 2.2 4.4 2.2 24.2
Ranchers of Guaviare
(ASOGEG)
32. Colombian Agricultural 1.5 4.5 1.5 3 1.5 1.5 24.1
Institute (ICA)
33. Panamazonic Ecclesial 2.7 0 1.3 2.7 0 4 24
Network
34. Ministry of Environment and 1.8 2.7 3.7 2.7 3.7 1.8 23.7
Sustainable Development
(MADS)
Number of agreements 149.4 148.1 145.3 143.4 144.1 145.7
Notes: The table shows the most collaborative actors involved in attaining common goals with the most significant number of agreements
Source: Own elaboration based on results obtained using LIPSOR’s MACTOR software

j FORESIGHT j
 Figure 6 Dimensions for Peter Schwartz’s axes method

1, (6) for quadrant 2, (/) for quadrant 3 and (/þ) for quadrant 4. In other words, the
best of the context analysis is found in quadrant 1, while the negative is found in quadrant 3.
Meanwhile, quadrants 2 and 4 show the alternates with their corresponding chiaroscuro.
Once scenario axes were delimited, the participants explored future possibilities (events)
for the year 2035 in each of the quadrants. It is noteworthy that, out of the 60 total generated
ideas [1], those belonging to quadrant 1 (the very positive ones) represent 52% of the
common denominator of suggested ideas (Figure 7). However, what is even more important
is that this set of ideas helped identify common themes for the gathered stakeholders that
behave such as trends (inertial behavior toward the future) and change drivers (forceful
factors that promote desired change).

4.8 Stage VI. Scenario sensitivity analysis

The events to favor or impede are identified under the knowledge of the systemic
interactions between them, which ensures the consideration of the expected effects (positive
and negative) toward 2035 and the configuration of alternative long-term future scenarios.
Figure 8 shows (from right to left) the components that were included in the consensual
planning of public policy focal points (PPFPs) that are fundamental to the future
development of Guaviare and are also the key themes of the public administration’s agenda
to regulate the design of the necessary and effective public policy.
Each of the prescribed focal points represents a strategic, coherent, viable and plausible
response arising from the corresponding strategic variables that are recognized as the
causes of the public problem that hinder regional development in the Guaviare. Every
strategic variable is linked to common goals for Guaviare actors (Figure 8). Said goals are
deemed common because most actors consider them essential to attaining their missions
and projects; thus, these goals are the incentives to work together. Finally, the specific
arrangement of institutional actors that turned out to have high convergence and mobility [2]
to collaborate in attaining common goals is shown.

j FORESIGHT j
 Figure 7 Results of brainstorming possibilities of occurrence in quadrant I of Schwartz’s
axes: a betting scenario for Guaviare in 2035

Figure 8 shows the focal points that eventually led to the future public policy guidelines
(FPPGs) to promote the development of the Guaviare, which, given the vertical nature of the
Colombian Government[3], are expected to have a beneficial cascade effect on the region.
Considering the basic tenets of Krugman’s (1997) theory of agglomeration economies, the
proposed FPPGs are mainly focused on small and medium-sized municipalities that are
geographically far from big cities. To ensure consensus on the long-term sustainability of
the FPPGs in terms of regional development, the FPPGs were attained in a collective
morphological analysis exercise. The guidelines below respond to the future hypotheses
that denote two fundamental criteria:

1. the notion of disruptive change considering the economic, political and social trends in
the territory; and

2. the exclusive character of all the future hypotheses, which ensures their relevance as
the better options for the attainment of development as projected to the year 2035.

4.9 Stage VII. Importance and governance method – importance and governance
toward public policy guidelines
IGO method was used to generate each of the public policy guidelines of the desirable
future to be specified. The guidelines make up the “Bet Scenario,” which establishes the
desirable contexts that reduce the effect of pessimism (disbelief in the long-term) and

j FORESIGHT j
 Figure 8 Creation of PPFPs based on the territorial foresight analysis

suggest the specific actions to be taken in the short and medium-term, which helps to
minimize the false optimism in the short term that assumes that the solutions are generated
by themselves and instead address the relevant SDGs (UNDP, 2021) (Table 5).
The result of the IGO method is Figure 9 which shows each guideline with the letters “SV”
and a number. This means that each guideline arises from the numbered strategic variable
previously found in the structural analysis. Another important remark about FPPGs is that
they are written in the present tense to emphasize their normative meaning, which
determines the nature of the new reality and the public planning priority.
The table also shows the influence of the various positive effects that the created guidelines
bring about in the territory; hence a systemic pattern can be seen in terms of the influence
of the seven proposed guidelines on the solution to specific situations (causal variables

j FORESIGHT j
 Table 5 Prioritization of the possible future hypotheses and morphological analysis of strategic variables for the
sustainable development of the state of Guaviare by 2035
Régnier abacus
Variables Future hypothesis consensus %

V2 Fear of coexisting with crime Public security and peace in the territory 40
and delinquency The power of the illegal armed groups is no longer imposed in the rural areas of 35
San Jose
Agreements are reached for the submission of illegal armed groups to the law 25
V27 Lack of a unified vision of The Government of Guaviare has a close relationship with the legislative and 45
development and a desirable executive branches of the National Government
future The initiatives and development projects articulated and achieve significant 28
impacts in the territory
Key stakeholders define and implement a sustainable territorial development 27
agenda
V9 Historical colonization by The Guaviare Department Economic Development is based on a knowledge 46
legal and illegal economies economy and sustainable environment
Illegal activities do not represent even 5% of the economy of San José del 30
Guaviare
The legalization of illicit drugs banishes drug trafficking and its value chains from 24
the territory
V8 Rise and consolidation of The Guaviare Department is known as a wide area of a natural reserve related to 42
illegal economies new economic activities that boost the region’s development
The agricultural and livestock activity of San José del Guaviare is technified 34
The economic activities of the municipality are in the use of non-timber forest 24
resources, production of legal monocultures and tourism
V7 Political isolation from Guaviare has a close relationship with the legislative and executive branches of 43
centers of power and V6 Low the National Government
local institutional capacity A widely agreed territorial occupation and development strategy has been 30
developed
Urban and rural inhabitants of the municipality trust in the institutions 27
V4 Instability of public policy at Guaviare department promotes the expression of an open government with a 40
the local level defined long-term vision
High level of social participation and organization 30
The demographic growth due to economic migration to San José is every year 30
higher
V3 Lack of transparency and The Guaviare department’s public administration operates under the principle of 70
accountability in government governance
agencies The public administration of San José del Guaviare ensures transparency and 20
accountability
The public administration of San José del Guaviare has autonomy from the rest of 10
the state
Note: Own elaboration

V14, V16, V17, V22 and V27) that have shaped the harmful conditions hindering the
effective socioeconomic and cultural development of the territory. The table likewise reveals
which SDGs and targets are aligned with each FPPG regarding the SD goals.

5. Implications for research, practice and society

This study’s results were achieved through a participative and cooperative foresight
exercise with Guaviare’s locals in line with collective action theory. Considering the system’s
dynamics and the complexity of the region’s problems, the FPPG were developed based on
the strategic system’s variables, gotten through the structural analysis. Additionally, each of
the FPPG is aligned with one or more SDGs and goal targets according to the 2030 global
agenda (UNDP, 2021).
The present study sought to generate FPPGs for a general problem: the unsustainable
development of Guaviare, Colombia. However, forthcoming studies could develop more
specific solutions based on the guidelines set out here in a more in-depth manner and focus

j FORESIGHT j
 Figure 9 Creation of public policy guidelines based on the territorial foresight analysis and
their relationship to SDGs

Public policy guidelines to promote

Main SDGs and Goal targets aligned Influence on causal variables that hinder territorial development
regional development in Guaviare

Guideline 1. In 2035, the Guaviare 10.2 12.2 Influences the decrease in the accelerated destruction of environmental resources (V22)
department is seen as an inclusive
10.7 Has a positive influence on the elimination of the displacement and historical victimization of
region in terms of social and cultural
values as well as shared economic ethnic groups (V14)
ethics that allows for a new definition
Minimizes the conflict between the environmental and cultural ways in the territory (V16)
of the region's economic inclination,
promoting increasingly sustainable Reduces the rise and consolidation of illegal economies (V8)
11.4
development at a 3% yearly rate
(SV27). 11.9 Fights corruption and institutional co-optation by illegal groups (V10)

Guideline 2. In 2035, the government
of Guaviare has a close relationship
with the legislative and executive
branches of the National Government,
which translates into the alignment of
the government program with the
country's strategic focal points of
development (SV7).
Influences the decrease in the accelerated destruction of environmental resources (V22)
16.6 17.13
Reduces the transformation of forests into savannas (V17)
16.7 17.14
Minimizes the conflict between the environmental and cultural ways in the territory (V16)
Has a positive influence on the elimination of the displacement and historical victimization of
ethnic groups (V14)
Promotes a unified vision of development and a desirable future (V27)

Guideline 3. In 2035, the Guaviare
department meets the expected
conditions of public security and
peace in the territory by being in
alignment with the national policy of
open and inclusive relationships with
police and army institutions (SV2).
Minimizes the conflict between the environmental and cultural ways in the territory (V16)
16.1 Has a positive influence on the elimination of the displacement and historical victimization of
ethnic groups (V14)
16.5
Influences the decrease in the accelerated destruction of environmental resources (V22)
Promotes a unified vision of development and a desirable future (V27)
Fights corruption and institutional co-optation by illegal groups (V10)

Guideline 4. In 2035, the Guaviare 4.3

department is now an international
example of economic development 4.4 9.1
based on a knowledge economy with Minimizes the conflict between the environmental and cultural ways in the territory (V16)
a high added value that develops R+D
for the industries of biotechnology, Influences the decrease in the accelerated destruction of environmental resources (V22)
aeronautics, and sustainable tourism
in the Amazon environment (SV9 and 8.1 Has a positive influence on the elimination of the displacement and historical victimization of
10). ethnic groups (V14)
8.2 15. 2
8.3
8.9

Guideline 5. In 2035, the Guaviare 15.1

department is known as a wide area
of a natural reserve for vegetal and
animal species that are symbiotically
related to the new economic activities
that boost the region's development,
namely R+D in biotechnology, the
harvest of non-wood tropical forest
products, and the development of
essential everyday services for
regional trade and tourism (SV8).
Promotes a unified vision of development and a desirable future (V27)
8.2 15.2
Minimizes the conflict between the environmental and cultural ways in the territory (V16)
15.5
Influences the decrease in the accelerated destruction of environmental resources (V22)
Reduces the transformation of forests into savannas (V17)
Has a positive influence on the elimination of the displacement and historical victimization of
12.2
ethnic groups (V14)

Guideline 6. In 2035, the Guaviare
department's public administration
operates under the principle of
governance and open government,
which implies greater democratic
participation and governmental
innovation (SV3).
Influences the decrease in the accelerated destruction of environmental resources (V22)
Minimizes the conflict between the environmental and cultural ways in the territory (V16)
16.6 Has a positive influence on the elimination of the displacement and historical victimization of
16.7 ethnic groups (V14)
Reduces the transformation of forests into savannas (V17)

Guideline 7. In 2035, the Guaviare 8.1

department continuously promotes the 8.2 16.6
expression of an open government
Influences the decrease in the accelerated destruction of environmental resources (V22)
with a defined long-term vision that
allows for the attainment of concrete Promotes a unified vision of development and a desirable future (V27)
goals in terms of economic
development based on economic Has a positive influence on the elimination of the displacement and historical victimization of
activities of high added value, ethnic groups (V14)
respecting the ethnic and cultural
Reduces the transformation of forests into savannas (V17)
richness of the territory that empowers
and dignifies the general population 11.4
(SV4).

Notes: V = variable; SV = strategic variable. Own elaboration. View Appendix 2 to see related
Agenda 2030 SDG targets

on the development of action plans and specific programs focused on solving those raised
in the problem tree (Figure 1) aligned with the SDGs such as corruption, deforestation and
displacement. Future research could use the proposed procedure to determine key factors
in education, health and economic activities leading to public policy guidelines.
As for the actor analysis, the present study identified a list of potential collaborative
stakeholders; nevertheless, for the successful collaboration of these groups – in terms of

j FORESIGHT j
governance – it is necessary to supervise their competencies and legal capacities to attain
their ends and form alliances, which could be the subject of future research projects.
Regarding practice and society implications, decision-makers can use the findings of this
study as a benchmark; they could replicate the methodological approach, contemplating
more economic sectors to validate the results of collective construction of public policies.
Policymakers can replicate the methodology used in this study in other Latin American
regions that share similarities. For instance, in Central America (Sa
nchez, 2020), the
presence of criminal groups in Mexico (Ornelas, 2018) and deforestation in the Amazonian
rainforest due to extensive livestock farming in Brazil (Pereira et al., 2020) so that the
population has a stake in the construction of a collective vision of the future of their territories
and are the basis of public policies.
Finally, the experience in San José del Guaviare in the participation workshops suggests
people are very receptive, participative and even empathetic when listening to diverse
opinions and lend themselves to collaborative work. The execution of this type of exercise
can be further enriched by its replication in other contexts such as community action
boards, the definition of collective visions and identity, and participatory dialogues between
social leaders and the government, mainly due to the recent protests in Colombia amid the
COVID-19 crisis (The Economist, 2021).

6. Conclusions
The present article proposes FPPGs for the sustainable regional development of Guaviare,
Colombia, for 2035, a rural area that currently faces many political, economic, social and
environmental problems.
Methodologically, the significant contribution in this research is the alignment proposal
applied with a convergent sense of specific foresight methods toward the processes of
analysis and design of public policy guidelines proposed by Bardach and Patashnik
(2019); where a series of foresight methods were implemented that allowed a systemic and
dynamic perspective of the factors and actors that influence the SD of the region. In this
sense, the following methods are emphasized:
The competences tree from the analyzed dimensions allowed identifying the most relevant
trends that determine the driving forces that promote the public problem of the region
studied.
The structural analysis helped clarify the interrelatedness among the variables that play a
leading role in the system under study. The resulting strategic variables point at the causes
that need to be addressed to create solutions to this public order problem, including the
lack of a unified vision of a desirable future, the isolation from centers of power, the
historical colonization, the lack of government transparency and the consolidation of illegal
economies.
The stakeholder analysis revealed the institutional actors most inclined to achieve common
goals based on the strategic variables. In this sense, the actors grouped by category, those
that reflect a higher percentage of the entire group and that denoted mobilization degree
above the average value (23.7) of the index attained, are the business sector with 25%,
public sector with a 22%, business associations, academia, civil society, multilateral
organizations, each of them with a respective 11% to summarize a 44% and finally the
category of others with 9%.
The proportions and categorization of the actors involved suggest a high degree of
successful viability in the implementation of the public policy for the promotion of SD from
the guidelines built with the foresight techniques under consensus and from the collective
because this is convergent with what dictates the theory of collective action and SD.

j FORESIGHT j
 The present study drew from the perceptions of those who took part in the workshops that
were carried out in San José del Guaviare (the capital of the Guaviare Department), who
contributed from their different roles – businesspeople, public servants, citizens, displaced
individuals, entrepreneurs – and validated the findings. They became an essential source of
input for defining the future guidelines for the development of the region. Thus, the
collective action theory is helpful as a public order problem needs to be addressed by the
government, the business sector and the civil society – and all these sectors were
represented in the fieldwork.
The morphological analysis was useful to create a participative process leading to the
definition of the FPPG through dissensus, deliberation and consensus from the participants
who partook in the workshops. The key aim was to promote a severe transformation from
previous regional development public policy characterized by short-termism and verticality,
the opposite of the governance spirit (Kardos, 2012).
Finally, the public policy guidelines defined respond to what must be done in terms of
structural elements of public policy to promote sustainable regional development for the
year 2035. These guidelines must be contemplated as priority actions to promote the SD of
the region. They consider aspects such as:
䊏 the definition of the region’s economic inclination;
䊏 the harmonious relationship between the local and national governments;
䊏 the prioritization of peace and security;
䊏 the possibility to transform the region into a knowledge economy hub;
䊏 the sustainable economic development through the responsible use of the Amazon’s
resources;
䊏 governance and accountability; and
䊏 a long-term unified vision for the region.

The difficulty of carrying out the research was related to the region’s particularities, the
fieldwork, the selection of actors, among others; however, the enriching experience allowed
to produce a document that could be a pilot for other regions with similar characteristics
and difficulties. It is expected that these guidelines set the tone for the development of
projects and programs oriented toward the social, economic and environmental
development of the Guaviare, which could later be used as a reference point for other
regions in Colombia that face similar problems.

Notes
1. To know the total generated ideas (60) in detail, please contact the main researchers.
2. Mobility toward the common goal is defined as the legal and technical competencies and the
relational capital of each actor to collaborate in the promotion of a guideline’s realization (Table 2).
3. The Colombian is a centralized government that maintains a vertical regime for the allocation of the
funds that are necessary for promoting the orderly development of municipalities – and hence of
territories.

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Appendix 1

Table A1 Workshop participants by position and economic sector

No. of participants Position Industry/economic sector

2 Candidate for governor Politics

2 Candidate for counselor Politics
2 Tourism guide Eco-tourism
1 Producer Audiovisuals
1 Hotel worker Tourism
1 Volunteer NGO
1 Entrepreneur Eco-tourism
1 Owner of a natural reserve Eco-tourism
1 Professor Education
1 Indigenous tourism guide Eco-tourism
1 Forced displacement victim
1 Citizen oversight Public sector
1 Navy retiree
1 Businessman Telecommunications
1 Entrepreneur/tourism guide Auto mechanical/eco-tourism
Note: Own elaboration

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 Appendix 2

Table A2 Guaviare’s FPPG relationship to SDGs targets

Sustainable
development goal Goal targets related to Guaviare’s future public policy guideline

# 4 Quality education 4.3 By 2030, ensure equal access for all women and men to affordable and quality technical, vocational and
tertiary education, including university (FPPG 4)
4.4 By 2030, substantially increase the number of youth and adults who have relevant skills, including
technical and vocational skills, for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship (FPPG 4)
# 8 Decent work and 8.1 Sustain per capita economic growth in accordance with national circumstances and, in particular, at least
economic growth 7% gross domestic product growth per annum in the least developed countries (FPPG 4, 7)
8.2 Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through diversification, technological upgrading and
innovation, including through a focus on high value added and labor-intensive sectors (FPPG 4, 7)
8.3 Promote development-oriented policies that support productive activities, decent job creation,
entrepreneurship, creativity and innovation and encourage the formalization and growth of micro-, small- and
medium-sized enterprises, including through access to financial services (FPPG 4)
8.9 By 2030, devise and implement policies to promote sustainable tourism that creates jobs and promotes
local culture and products (FPPG 4)
# 9 Industry, innovation 9.1 Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure, including regional and transborder
and infrastructure infrastructure, to support economic development and human well-being, with a focus on affordable and
equitable access for all (FPPG 4)
# 10 Reduced 10.2 By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age,
inequalities sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status (FPPG 1)
10.7 Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through the
implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies (FPPG 7)
# 11 Sustainable cities 11.4 Strengthen efforts to protect and safeguard the world’s cultural and natural heritage (FPPG 1, 7)
and communities 11.9 By 2020, substantially increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and implementing
integrated policies and plans toward inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate
change, resilience to disasters and develop and implement, in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster
Risk Reduction 2015–2030, holistic disaster risk management at all levels (FPPG 1)
# 12 Responsible 12.2 By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources (FPPG 1, 5)
consumption and
production
# 15 Life on land 15.1 By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater
ecosystems and their services, in particular forests, wetlands, mountains and drylands, in line with
obligations under international agreements (FPPG 5)
15.2 By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt
deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally
(FPPG 4, 5)
15.5 Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of
biodiversity and, by 2020, protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species (FPPG 5)
# 16 Peace, justice and 16.1 Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere (FPPG 3)
strong institutions 16.5 Substantially reduce corruption and bribery in all their forms (FPPG 3)
16.6 Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels (FPPG 2, 6, 7)
16.7 Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making at all levels (FPPG 2, 7)
# 17 Partnerships for 17.13 Enhance global macroeconomic stability, including through policy coordination and policy coherence
the goals (FPPG 2)
17.14 Enhance policy coherence for sustainable development (FPPG 2)
Note: FPPG = future public policy guideline
Source: UNDP (2021)

Corresponding author
José Luis Camarena can be contacted at: jose.camarena@uexternado.edu.co

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