Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: US Secretary of State
Blinken Pays Visit – 1
April 13, 2023

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Vietnam from April 14-16 before
heading to Japan for the G-7 Summit from April 16-18. We request your insights into
the following issues:
Q1. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Vietnam from April 14-16 before he
heads to the Foreign Ministers' Meeting of The Group of Seven which will be held in
Japan from April 16-18, 2023. Is there any relation between these two events?
ANSWER: If strategy is defined as ends, ways and mean, Secretary Blinken’s trips to
Japan and Vietnam are the means to the strategic ends of the Biden Administration’s
National Security and Indo-Pacific strategies. The U.S. is trying to mobilize and sustain
an international coalition to oppose Russia’s war in Ukraine and to deter China from
using force against Taiwan and intimidation of South China Sea littoral states.
Q2. Japan is considered the creator of the concept “Indo - Pacific” strategy now led by
the United States and its major allies. When visiting India on March 20th, 2023, as an
initiative for G-7 Summit’s success, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced
a new plan for an Open and Free Indo-Pacific. (See: Reuter.) Can we say that the Indo-
Pacific strategy will become the key issue at the G-7 Summit? The Indo-Pacific Strategy
raised two issues related to Vietnam's national interests: the issue of Freedom and
Openness in the South China Sea and the “US_Mekong Partnership”. Could you give
your comments about the positions of these 2 issues at the G-7 Summit in Japan in
2023? What is Vietnam’s position in building the groundwork for this strategy?
ANSWER: All members of the Group of 7 have either issued a national strategic policy
document on the Indo-Pacific or belong to a multilateral body that has adopted as
strategy policy document on the Indo-Pacific, such as the Quad, European Union and
NATO.
Japan, Canada and the United States as well as European countries are acutely aware
that their future security is vitally dependent on peace in the Indo-Pacific because of
their economic interdependency with the region. They share a convergence in outlook
that China is the major challenge to the present rules-based order, even while the war
in Ukraine continues. All members of the G7 share concerns about the Russia-China
partnership “without limits.” That is why they all support an Open and Free Indo-
Pacific. With the exception of Italy, all other G& members have deployed warships to
the South China Sea in recent years.
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Because the G7 are advanced industrial countries, they will consider how best to use
their economic heft to shore up regional resilience against the challenge of non-
traditional issues affecting human and food security. It is in this context that
supporting sustainable development in the Mekong sub-region becomes important.
Assistance to Mekong riparian states offers alternatives to dependence on China’s Belt
and Road Initiative. Sustainable development of the Mekong subregion is vital for the
economies of Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Laos.
Vietnam has consistently supported the presence of so-called “extra-regional”
countries as comprehensive or strategic partners. This includes support for a Free and
Open Indo-Pacific and sustainable development of the Mekong subregion.
Q3. While visiting India on March 20th, Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida Fumio also
wants to improve the maritime warning and surveillance capacities of ASEAN (See:
Reuter.) Why is this issue important?
ANSWER: ASEAN as a group represents one of the main engines of growth in the Indo-
Pacific. ASEAN represents a market of 634 million people with a total GDP of US $33.5
trillion. ASEAN has adopted a policy document, ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific
(AOIP) that stresses its centrality in regional affairs including the region’s security
architecture. The AOIP also stresses that ASEAN will not take sides in great power
rivalry.
China’s rise impacts on security in Southeast Asia, especially in the South China Sea.
Japan’s policy of supporting ASEAN’s maritime warning and surveillance capacities is
in line with the policies of India, United States and Australia collectively known as the
Quad. This assistance is important in building up capacity to detect and deter Chinese
naval, surveying and fishing activities in the Exclusive Economic Zones of littoral states.
Q4. Do you think that Vietnam's acceptance to upgrade relations with the US to the
level of a strategic partnership is feasible this year?
ANSWER: Yes. President Joe Biden and General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong agreed
during their telephone conversation in late March on “the importance of
strengthening and expanding the bilateral relationship.” Secretary of State Anthony
Blinken is currently in Hanoi to work out the modalities of exchange visits by President
Biden and General Secretary Trong in May and July respectively, according to
unconfirmed reports. The two leaders have also agreed to appoint “relevant
authorities of the two sides to discuss details for further promoting ties.”
Negotiating a strategic partnership is feasible this year for two reasons. First, General
Secretary Trong has laid the foundation with his visit to China in October-November
last to meet General Secretary Xi Jinping. Second, next year will mark the start of
campaigning for the 2024 elections in America. Once the high-level visits take place,
there will be ample time for the two sides to reach agreement on the content of the
strategic partnership.
Q5. Why in 1991, Vietnam quickly asked China to normalize relations with China while
China had just attacked and captured Gac Ma Island in the Spratlys in 1988 killing 64
Vietnamese soldiers, but Vietnam delayed responding to the US’s proposal to upgrade
the level of the US-Vietnam relation? The US has proposed to upgrade relations with
Vietnam since 2011, but why did Vietnam refuse?
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ANSWER: In October 1991, the international community reached a comprehensive

political settlement of the conflict in Cambodia. This was a prerequisite for the
normalization of Sino-Vietnamese relations. At that time Vietnam was under a U.S.
embargo and, in internal party documents, was considered the “dangerous and most
direct enemy of Vietnam.” Vietnam was concerned by the collapse of socialism in
Eastern Europe, the fall of the Berlin Wall and political instability in the Soviet Union.
Vietnam sought to create an alliance of socialist states including China. But China did
not want to alienate the United States because it needed U.S. support to counter the
Soviet Union. China rejected Vietnam’s initiative reportedly saying “đồng chí, không
phải đồng minh” (comrades not allies).
The U.S. and Vietnam normalised relations in July 1995 after settling their
disagreements about a full accounting for U.S. MIAs and POWs and U.S. contributions
to “healing the wounds of war” (unexploded ordnance and Agent Orange dioxin
poisoning).
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pushed for a strategic partnership but in the end both
sides agreed the time was not yet ripe. This was a case of “same bed, different
dreams.” Hanoi and Washington both had difference ideas about a “strategic
partnership.” The U.S. emphasis on the military side, whereas Vietnam viewed the
partnership in more comprehensive terms (economic, political, education, science and
technology etc.). In 2013, Vietnam and the United States settled for a comprehensive
partnership.
Q6. Among the following areas of cooperation, which ones will be prioritized by
Vietnam in its relationship with the United States: trade, culture, education, science
and technology, politics, and military? What form and scope of these cooperation will
be?
ANSWER: According to Vietnam’s media, General Secretary Trong has called for
economic relations and science and technology to be the “driving force” in bilateral
relations. Under the umbrella of economic relations, Trong prioritized balanced and
sustainable trade, new logistics and supply chains, climate change and green
transition, increased scholarships for Vietnamese to study in the United States, health
care, investment in digital infrastructure, war legacy issues, assistance with UN
peacekeeping, defence and security, information exchange and crime prevention.
Q7. If Vietnam-US relations were upgraded this year, what benefits would the US
receive? What benefits does Vietnam receive?
ANSWER: The United States would prioritize more balanced trade, greater
opportunities for U.S. businesses to invest and operate in Vietnam, Vietnam’s
participation in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, and secure and resilient supply
chains. Also, the U.S. would benefit from closer political-diplomatic cooperation with
Vietnam in multilateral institutions, especially ASEAN and ASEAN-related associations.
Also, the U.S. would benefit indirectly by assisting Vietnam in capacity-building to
address maritime security issues in the South China Sea to strengthen a free and open
Indo-Pacific.
Vietnam aims to benefit across the board from U.S. assistance in greater access to the
U.S. market; science, technology and innovation; educational cooperation;
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environment (climate and green transition) and health; information exchange; and
war legacy issues.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: US Secretary of State Blinken Pays

Visit,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, April 13, 2023. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
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