Einführung in die Makroökonomie

Vorlesung 2

Universität Bern
Frühjahrssemester 2023
Carlos Lenz

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Quelle: www.seco.admin.ch

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 Schweiz: BIP, real saisonbereinigt

Reale Daten, saison- und kalenderbereinigt, Veränderungsraten nicht annualisiert. Quelle: www.seco.admin.ch

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Das BIP und die Geldströme in der Wirtschaft

Haushalte Firmen

Staat

Finanzmarkt

Rest der Welt

Messung der
Verwendungsseite
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 Trade Balance = Net Exports
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 > 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 ⇒ 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 > 0 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 < 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 ⇒ 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 < 0
trade surplus trade deficit

• Net exports for the United States are

negative
• This trade deficit indicates that the US…
…consumes more than it produces
…is borrowing goods from the rest of the
world.
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 Trade deficits and surpluses
• A trade deficit (surplus) indicates that, in
a given year, a country consumes more
(less) goods than it produces
• Depending on their preferences, age
structure, global demand etc. some
countries have trade deficits and others
have trade surpluses.
• For the world as a whole net exports
must be zero.

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 Net exports and savings
• NX > 0: domestic savings outflow
(we produce more than we consume, we
save goods and ship them abroad)
• NX < 0: foreign savings inflow

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Domestic and foreign savings
Income = expenditure:
𝑌𝑌 = 𝐶𝐶 + 𝐼𝐼 + 𝐺𝐺 + 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁
Rearrange:
𝑌𝑌 − 𝐶𝐶 − 𝐺𝐺 − 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 = 𝐼𝐼
Subtract and add taxes (T):
𝑌𝑌 − 𝐶𝐶 − 𝑇𝑇 + 𝑇𝑇 − 𝐺𝐺 − 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 = 𝐼𝐼

Domestic + foreign saving = domestic investment

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Composition of US GDP

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 2.3 Measuring Changes
over Time
• Nominal GDP
– A measure of GDP when prices and
quantities have not been separated.
• Real GDP
– Actual quantity of goods and services.

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 A Simple Example: Where Real GDP
Doesn’t Change

• To compute GDP across time, we must

use one year’s price.
– Real GDP will be measured in a certain
year’s dollars
– Nominal GDP is measured in current dollars.

• Consider Apples and Computers:

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 A Simple Example: Where Real GDP
Doesn’t Change
• If the quantity of goods and services
produced does not change, but prices do
change
– Nominal GDP will change.
– Real GDP will not change.

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 Quantity Indexes: Laspeyres, Paasche,
and Chain Weighting

• Calculating real GDP changes over time:

• The Laspeyres index
– Calculates changes in real GDP using the
initial prices.
• The Paasche index
– Calculates changes in real GDP using the final
year prices.
• Over long-time intervals the two indexes
can result in substantial differences.
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 Quantity Indexes: Laspeyres, Paasche,
and Chain Weighting

• The Fisher index (chain weighting) is the

preferred approach to calculating real
GDP.
– Average of the Laspeyres and Paasche
index.
– Preferred because new goods are invented
while others become obsolete —making
early or recent prices inaccurate.
– Can be applied on a year-by-year basis if we
compute real GDP each year.
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 Price Indexes and Inflation
• Recall the formula for nominal GDP:

– The GDP deflator is the price level that satisfies the equation.
– We could compute this formula for two different years to calculate
a price change.

• Note the following math trick:

• The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price

level.
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 2.4 Comparing Economic
Performance across Countries
• The exchange rate:
– Price at which different currencies are traded.
• To make comparisons of GDP across
countries we must take the following steps:
– GDP must be expressed in a common currency
by first adjusting it by the exchange rate.
– This value of nominal GDP must be multiplied
by the ratio of prices in the countries.

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 Example: China and United States 2020
• First, use the exchange rate to turn
Chinese yuan into U.S. dollars.
• Exchange rate 2020 : $1 = 6.76 yuan
• Chinese nominal GDP 2020:
in Chinese yuan in US Dollars

$1
104 tn yuan × = $15.4 tn
6.76 yuan

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 Example: China and United States 2020
• Second, adjust for relative price level of
goods.

• Price level ratio is about (1/0.65), so the

real GDP of China is $23.7 trillion.

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• Comparison of countries:

– In general, rich countries tend to have higher

price levels than poor countries.

– This is mainly because poor countries have

lower wages.

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