Michaela Mohamed

22101945

Trend Analysis 01

BTAN151 FIS

Title: Trend Report

Randburg

Lecturer: Arabelle Treurnicht

Module Coordinator: Arabelle Treurnicht

Table of Contents

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 2
1: Garment Analysis and Comparison ............................................................................................... 3
2: Fashion Movements Knowledge ..................................................................................................... 6
3: Zeitgeist Knowledge and Application .......................................................................................... 10
4: Pendulum Swing Theory ................................................................................................................. 11
5: Pendulum forecast: 2025 Forecast ............................................................................................... 12
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 13
References ............................................................................................................................................... 14
Image References .................................................................................................................................. 17

Page 1 of 20
Introduction

In this report there will be multiple analyses and sections. Section 1 will conduct a garment
analysis for Michael Ludwig Studio 2022 collection. This brand is a ready-to-wear fashion
company that is built on non-binary apparel as they try to fight gender norms and
traditional definitions of masculinity vs femininity fused with an eastern world and African
style (Michael Ludwig Studio, 2022). This section will combat the silhouette, proportions,
fullness, and garmented details of the collection pieces.

Section 2 encompasses fashion theories, such as fashion cycles of the trickle theories
and what they mean. It also deep dives into ‘90s fashion making a come back and what
that means theoretically in terms of trend analysis.

Section 3 is the zeitgeist analysis for the 1990’s, more specifically a STEEP analysis. The
societal, technological, economic, environmental, and political factors and determinants
of this decade will be defined.

Section 4 is analysing the pendulum swing for Michael Ludwig Studios wrap dress, how
wrap dress cycle and how different points affect the hemline of the dress.

Section 5 furthers the points made in section 4, forecasting what the wrap dress will
potentially look like in the year 2025 through analysis and trend forecasting logic based
off where it is at in 2022.

The report ends on a conclusion of how forecasting should be ethically conducted and
why that is so, examining the effects it could possibly have.

Page 2 of 20
 1: Garment Analysis and Comparison
FUNCTIONAL
DETAILS &
GARMENT SILHOUETTE PROPORTION FULLNESS
DECORATIVE
DETAILS

1. Cream The pants’ silhouette These pants are The pants have The details of the
Herringbone Double present as a trapeze; it wide legged, high a sense of garment include
Pocket Trouser starts flat and narrow and waisted, and “fitness” the doubled
flares out wide. Including slightly cropped throughout, but pockets, belt
the pockets, it could be length just above the progression loops and their
seen as a layered trapeze. the ankle. The of length adds layering, the
waistband is fitted volume. ribbed back of
and sits flush Fullness is waist and the
against the waist. added by the elasticated
The flapped double layered waistband. Slight
pockets start at the pockets and the binding on the
hip and end just use of a heavy garment edges.
above the knee. fabric
throughout.

2. Sleeve Dress The silhouette is hard to This dress is loose, The bishop style The dress
pinpoint due to the ballerina length with sleeve adds primarily relies on
amorphous nature of the long, cuffed sleeves volume and is the colour and
dress, but at a basic that surpass the emphasised by pleats, but for
outline it is a diamond. wrist. The its tight cuff. details it does
Vertically narrow and waistband is thick Detailed tight have as a hidden
horizontally wide. and in-between the pleats under the zip and the
high hip line and bust combined contouring
waistline. With a with loose chest stitching on the
crewneck and area and larger, lower back. Slight
bateau combination boxier pleats binding on the
neckline . after waistline garment edges.
add fullness to
the overall
shape.

Page 3 of 20
3. Ludwig Ponte Top The tops silhouette is an Elbow-length Balloon style Heat transfer
inverted triangle, the top is sleeved polo-neck sleeve is brand logo with a
the thickest and the top that can be voluminous, and hidden zip at the
bottom is the thinnest and cropped below the tight neckline back of the top.
they are noticeably so bust or sit just on juxtapose the Slight binding on
contrasting. the hip line, with a fullness from fit the garment
nature waistline to full, and the edges.
curve imbedded in in-between size
the top. of the bodice
balances the
two components
further.

4. Printed Flare Skirt Despite the outline not Due to the The nature flow The skirt is
being pristine and smooth, extensions on the of the flaring elasticated and
the silhouette appears skirt, it is ankle under fabric is isn’t fairly detailed
round all together, with a length and without full and in other aspects.
big circle and two ovals. it just above it and expanded by Slight binding on
starts cinched at the extra thicker the garment
the high waistline. added fabric edges.
The “add-ons” start which is slightly
just under the hip. gathering by
the seam and
folds while
flowing down.

5. Gathered Waist The roominess and folds The dress is Shape is boxy This dress has two
Wrap Dress of the dress adds averagely knee but loose, buttons on the
softness, but the length at its lowest fullness is neckline to fasten
silhouette/ outline is mid-calf and at its added by and unfasten the
rectangular, with a shortest above layered fabric garment. Slight
triangular indent just at the knee, the sleeves over each other binding on the
bottom of it to appear are long end just on bodice and garment edges.
asymmetrical. before the arm ruching side of
meets the wrist. waist, giving
The waist is semi ruches to bust
defined and regions as well.
between the hipline
and waistline. The
dress starts on the
neck with a thin
polo neck.

Page 4 of 20
All the outfits by Michael Ludwig have a roomy, spacious essence, with volume in one
area or another complemented with slender aspects and binding along the edges. In outfit
1 the fabric is more structured and along with the details such as the pockets, but the
waistline adds the element of fit and hourglass-esque., similarly to outfit 3 the bottoms
are flared, as well as the sleeves but the torso and waist region is narrowed balancing the
level of flow and fit. Outfit 2 and 5 are very similar in silhouettes but outfit 2 has full cuffed
sleeves but outfit 5 has more naturally loose sleeves with no cinching of the wrist, but the
two coincide in their lengths and natural definitions of the waistline at the area and just
below it. All the outfits, except 1, abstain from detailing and let the material and
craftsmanship speak for itself giving a classical and tasteful appearance, however outfit
1 is not distasteful because of its details; these elements add character and completion
to the pants making it seem cleanly finished.

Page 5 of 20
 2: Fashion Movements Knowledge

The trickle theories are on the basis of basic fashion knowledge of the different market
levels; Couture [elite], Ready-to-wear [upper to middle class] and Mass Market [lower to
middle class] (Waddell, 2004). The trickle theories explain how fashion trends move in
context to these markets. Trickle-down starts with the elite and moves down to the lower
classes, these trends are expensive and exclusive as the rich want to gatekeep the
entrance to the market (Arie, 2020), this links back to feudalism such as they would wear
a silhouette and the masses at the time would want to conform, and the elite will want to
differentiate thus after the masses adopt a style, the affluent quickly switch to another,
similarly to today (DeLong, 2022). In contrast to the trickle-down theory, the trickle-up
theory contends that fashion adopted from the street is gradually adopted by lower social
classes until it reaches upper income communities, these trends are started by minority
groups and sub-cultures such as the trend of ripped jeans that came from street style
(DeLong, 2022). There is little time between acceptance from one group to another in the
trickle-across framework as designers showcase a look simultaneously across all
market levels at pricing appropriate per level (DeLong, 2022). Fashion has become
comparatively more participatory as a result of mass manufacturing and information
exchange, many fashion theorists support the trickle across fashion theory as it asserts
that trends trickle
up and trickle
down at the same
time in the age of
technology, such
as the Versace
pumps that were
duplicated as soon
as they entered
the market (Arie,
2020).
Figure 1: Trickle Theories in Fashion

Page 6 of 20
 Trickle Down Trickle Across

Trickle Up

In the trickle-up it is demonstrated that the colour purple was introduced, and gatekept by elite of the time i.e.,
the Royals because of the scarcity of the pigment (Foskett, 2020), now in today's age we see that purple can
be worn by any income bracket.

In the trickle-down ripped jeans were an act of rebelling, and nonconformity during the punk movement during
the 1970s, they became a part of luxury fashion in the 1980s and now seen as a part of celebrity streetwear
staples (Pickering, 2022).

In the trickle-across Versace introduced the Medusa Pump at a retail price R27 800 (Versace, 2022), many
retailers came with their own dupes, such as Steve Madden at R2 436 (Steve Madden, 2022) and Shein at
R496 (Shein, 2022), these are all different markets and were available at the same time.

Page 7 of 20
 Trickle Theory for ‘90s Minimalism

During the 1990s there were two prominent fashion trends happening synchronously;
those being the grunge and the minimalism aesthetics (Waldron, 2014). These trend
juxtapose each other due to the economic boom of the time as high fashion supermodels
perpetuated minimalism and the grunge aesthetic was a retaliation of the subculture to
differentiate themselves from the masses (Waldron, 2014). The grunge aesthetic of this
time would have been a trickle up as it started at the subculture groups and worked its
way up to elite (Waldron, 2014), and historically the minimalism trend during this time
would be a trickle down as the trend was introduced by the elite; fashion designers, these
designers included Calvin Klein, Tom Ford, Miuccia Prada and others, and found its
way down to the masses (Marrone, 2022). The nostalgic 90s style that is making a
comeback is a fusion of the minimalistic aesthetic and the grunge aesthetic in one
(Trotman, 2021). The reimagined trend now follows the trickle across theory, even though
runway designers introduced the trend (Trotman, 2021), it had mass market retailers and
other brands in different market levels adopt the trend with little lag making it available to
all consumers in all income brackets and social classes because of Gen Z and their social
media influence (Sangster, 2022). The ‘90s staple pieces include long-line, baggy shorts,
low-rise jeans, and Cami dresses for women (Trotman, 2021) and baggy jeans and
oversized jackets for men (Trotman, 2021).

Figure 3: TD of Baggy shorts Figure 4: Mr Price Bermuda shorts (2022) Figure 2: Coach (S/S 22) New York

Page 8 of 20
 As shown above, Figure 2 is the technical drawing of the baggy, long-lined shorts, and it
is successfully interpreted in Figure 3 which is mass-market and Figure 4 which is Ready-
to-wear. These different markets are happening simultaneously, and at different prices,
thus all consumers are experiencing this trend at the same time, which is the trickle
across theory (DeLong, 2022).

Fashion Cycle for ‘90s Minimalism

The fashion cycle that presents for this trend is Recycling Fashion Ideas, the 1990s were
a time of basic pieces (Oh, 2022), so it is not exactly hard to reimagine the core items of
the trend but the ‘90s Minimalism has some 2022 spins on the apparel. The ‘90s “slip
dress” is the most emblematic item from the time and can be said to be the paradigm of
the fashion trend as it is a piece that was both grunge and minimalist (Borrelli-Persson,
2022). The dress today is reimagined as asymmetrical and denim, sometimes silk
emulator fabrics are used to imitate the traditional look of this dress (Trotman, 2021).

The dresses both possess thin spaghetti straps,

but the overall structure and silhouette is
different. The slip dress may be the paragon as
to why the ‘90s Minimalism trend is a Recycling
Fashion Idea, but it can also be seen in the low-
rise jeans which sit higher than the original trend
and all garments using better quality material
(Trotman, 2021). The simple colour pallets are

VS being repeated and the highlighted sex appeal

erogenous zones are being embodied
(Trotman, 2021).

Figure 6: Calvin Klein ready-to-wear Figure 5: Loewe ready-to-wear S/S

A/W '97/'98 2022

Page 9 of 20
3: Zeitgeist Knowledge and Application

STEEP Factor Analysis

As consumerism was at a high, a wealthy and clean aesthetic was idealised, Supermodels were the paragons

S ociety
of this and the grunge movement came out as a retaliation to it (Wynn, 2020). Bands, celebrities, and movies
were highly influential of people during this time, causing people to dress and act in a certain manner
(Grambush, 2019). Women of the time were striving for a very slim body because of “heroin chic” (Arnold,
2015) and this movement was counteracted with 3rd wave feminism as it infiltrated itself into the grunge
movement making women accepting of their bodies and influencing music at the time too (Zeiner, 2015).

The technology industry grew rapidly during the 1990s, which was referred to as the dot-com boom; this was

T echnology
an emergence of advanced technological growth (Gascon & Karson, 2017). Many technological inventions
come from the decade such as the first portable CD player in 1990 and the first ever PlayStation in 1994
(Byrnes, 2019). In the 1990s the biggest piece of technology that still has influence today would be the World
Wide Web, as it formed how we use the internet today (Gewirtz, 2018)

The economy of the 1990s was in a boom and prosperity stage with high growth after the Cold War, this is

E conomy
because consumerism was at a high as the war’s ideals were Capitalism vs Communism (Stiglitz, 2002).
Americans felt more comfortable expressing their consumeristic ways and indulgence after the period causing
the boom, employment was high, inflation and poverty were low along with high productivity (Stiglitz, 2002).
The US spent $60 billion on the Gulf war, to stop Iraq from invading Kuwait, which contributed to the start of
an economic recession brought on by a rise in oil prices (Tyler & Stevenson, 2002).

In 1990 the Global Research Act was implemented, it was aimed at promoting discussions toward
international protocols in global change research, understanding and responding to climatic changes,

E nvironment
including the cumulative effects of human activities and natural processes on the environment (Brown, et al.,
2017). A lot of the rainforests were trying to be conserved after global meetings and endangered species
were trying to be protected against, however much didn’t come from it, the Clean Air Act was also more
enforced during the 1990s because of factories and mass production due to the economic boom (Alexander,
2019).

The Cold War had ended in the beginning of the decade, by the president of time Ronald Regan, this event
led to individuals feeling liberated and safer (Blakemore, 2022). When the Cold War ended, the conflict

P olitics
between capitalism and communism subsided, and the US felt more at ease expressing their political system,
this ideology reached its height in the 1990s (Blakemore, 2022). Neoliberalism was prevalent in the ‘90s,
which values free-market competition and opposes government intervention, it is an ideology that holds that
politics and economics should be primarily capitalist and liberal, this ideology especially raised after the war
(Smith, 2014). When Bill Clinton (1993-2001) came into power he was the first democratic president since the
1940s to serve two terms, he followed neoliberalism and was a liberal himself (Martin, 2020).

Page 10 of 20
 4: Pendulum Swing Theory

First Extreme Centre Point Opposite Extreme

1990s 1980s 2000s

Hemline: The wrap dress’s
hemline above the knee,
borderline mid-thigh.
Fullness: Little to no
volume, tight and hugging
against the body, natural
pleats forming from wrapping
process.
Hemline: The wrap dress’s
hemline is just below the
knee.
Fullness: Little to no
volume, tight and hugging
against the body, natural
pleats forming from wrapping
process.
2
Hemline: The wrap dress’s
hemline is floor length at the
back and ankle length in the
front.
Fullness: Little to no
volume, tight and hugging
against the body, natural
pleats forming from wrapping
process.

FE: First Extreme Wrap 1: CP to FE

CP: Centre Point Dress 2: FE to

Opposite Extreme 3: to CP
1980s

FE OE

1
CP 3

Page 11 of 20
 5: Pendulum forecast: 2025 Forecast

Considering the model on the previous page the flow of the

2022
pendulum for the wrap dress goes from centre point to first
extreme to opposing extreme every decade. Following this cycle
from the 2000s being at opposite extreme, the 2010s will be at
the centre point, the 2020s will be at the first extreme and the
2030s will be back at the opposite extreme; meaning the 2020’s
are above the knee and the 2030s are ankle length. Currently at
2022 wrap dresses are still at the first extreme, however they are
getting longer. Looking Michael Ludwig’s wrap dress, the
hemline is asymmetrical. The fullness is still body hugging and
more fit than flare. This would feature on the quarter way from
first extreme to opposite extreme.
Figure 7: Michael Ludwig’s Studio Wrap Dress

For 2025 I predict that the hemline will still be asymmetrical as it’s
2025 approaching the opposite extreme, however the front will be
above the knee and the back will be ankle length. The fullness
will remain constant as being without volume, and natural forming
pleats. Something similar to, or replicating, figure 8. The hemline
will most likely get shorter as result of conforming, people just out
of lockdown wanted to self-express but as times start to readjust
people will start to feel less confident in the future. These to
consider ethically are the results of fast-fashion such employee
wages and environmental effects the fabric used will have.

2025
Figure 8: Floral Wrap Design Asymmetric
Maxi Dress

FE OE

Page 12 of 20 2020 2030

CP
Conclusion

When it comes to something objective like trend forecasting subjective opinions can get
in the way of the forecaster. A large ethical issue when conducting this type of research
is eliminating personal bias towards the topic that is being analysed and therefore
forecasted, in other words manipulating information to fit the scope of the forecaster's
outcome or having a biased opinion to reflect a self-serving approach (McCurdy, 2011).
Sometimes forecasters do this for many unethical reasons, such as monetary gain or
trying to save time to meet a deadline (McCurdy, 2011). This is unethical because the
information is dishonest and unfaithful, while claiming to be researched therefore pushing
a falsified narrative.

Fashion forecasting is consumer based naturally, it is about predicting their behaviour in

terms of purchasing and how these purchasing patterns affect their style and mood of
their persona in the bigger picture (Dhanapal, 2022). Due to the fact that this information
has to be obtained, the manner in which it is obtained is how these forecasters have to
act ethically. Consumers have to consent to certain information of theirs being used, in a
South African context they are protected by the POPI Act. This act gives parties rights to
dictate how their information is used and being able to retract the usage of the personal
data if they please (POPIA, 2022). This means forecasters cannot reference just any data
and have to ethically obtain the information going to be used in their forecasts and
analyses.

Page 13 of 20
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Page 16 of 20
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Image References

Cream Herringbone Double Pocket Trouser (2022), Shop All – Page 2 –

Michael Ludwig Studio, In BTAN151 FIS [Accessed: 15.11.2022]

Sleeve Dress (2022), Shop All – Page 2 – Michael Ludwig Studio, In

BTAN151 FIS [Accessed: 15.11.2022]

Ludwig Ponte (2022), Shop All – Page 2 – Michael Ludwig Studio, In

BTAN151 FIS [Accessed: 15.11.2022]

Printed Flare Skirt (2022), Shop All – Page 2 – Michael Ludwig Studio, In
BTAN151 FIS [Accessed: 15.11.2022]

Gathered Waist Wrap Dress (2022), Shop All – Page 2 – Michael Ludwig
Studio, In BTAN151 FIS [Accessed: 15.11.2022]

Elisa Poltronieri (2021) Trickle Theories, Marketing Ignorante [Online

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