Fina

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Ryerson
GEO 702
FINAL EXAM
STUDY GUIDE
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GEO 702 LECTURE Pressures from World Population Growth DATE: Sept. 19th and 21st
- Is population becoming more of a problem?
- First billion population occurs in 1880D

- This has taken 2-5 million years
- Around 1880 we have around 1 billion people in the planet
- There are 2 billion people on the planet by 1930
- The second billion occurs over 50 years (50 years to adjust
technology)
- 3 billion is achieved by 1960 – this has only taken 30 years
- Technology > if we have this increase in population rate
technology needs to keep up
- 4 billion people occupy the planet by 1975 – 15 years to add one
more billion
Pop Growth - 5 billion by the summer of 1987 – 12 years to add a billion
- 6 billion by 1998 – 12 years to add one more billion
- Net gain per second: 2.6
- October 2011 – 7 billion people
- July 1st, 2016 – 7,404,976,783
- The tempo has changed – we have to feed, clothe and employ

these people
- Most of this population is in the south and the most affected areas
will also the south
------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hans Rosling - Good Accelerated growth

news and Bad Religions and babies – Youtube Ted Talks
Problem location
Stability of population - 10 billion inevitable?
- Religion and birth rates

- Low income = more children
- High income = less children
- Countries with highest mortality rates have highest birth rates
- 2.2 babies on average globally
- Stability
- 10 billion will be the max population capacity

- Production is associated with population

- 8 billion by 2014 – if slower rates of growth at present
- If current rates of growth – 10.5 billion by the year 2110
- If slightly higher growth rates: 14.2 billion by 2130
Concentration:
- We have an increase in population as well as a concentration of
population
- We have to allocate a greater portion of resources in areas of greater
concentrations
The problem of 1950: 2 cities in the world had a population over 10 million (NY and
concentration of needs London)
– urban environments 1985: 11 cities in the world had a population over 10 million
This concentration increases the problem because availability resources

are stretches – higher pressure to exploit resources
Impacts on resources
Demand:
Expectations
Levels of living
Consumption
Records
Population
Attitudes
Life, health, environment and societal equity
Demands
Wants and needs specific demand for goods,
services, experiences and values
-Example
Dangers and problems in our system
- One of the major problems are homes
- The square feet of the average US home has nearly tripled in the
last 40 years, consuming massive quantities of land, building
products and infrastructure;
- In 1950, the average square footage of a home was 963 sq feet
- By 1970, it increased to 1500 sq feet
- By 2005, it increased to 2400 sq feet
- At the same time the house size increased, the members of the
household decreased from 3.1 to 2.6
- This is not a necessity
- The average lot size starts to shrink
- So – bigger houses on smaller lots with fewer people living in them
- Fueling the size craze is a ling wish list of home features the

American desire
- Some 87% prefer 3+ bedrooms
- About:
- 85% of Americans want walk-in pantries
- 77% desire separate shower stalls
- 95% want laundry rooms
- 64% home offices
Now – end result
- Greater Tokyo 2015 – the average apartment size 645 sq. ft. and
the average building age is 18.7
- New York condos and Toronto condos in 2015 – 739 sq. ft.
Exponential Growth – Impact on Resources

-Future link to Malthus
- Some growth rates will be limited by the ecosystem ability to go

along with the desired rate of growth
For example:
- In 2008, world grain production was 2,226 million tons
Now,
- With a doubling of demand every 8.75 years, it is easy to see that:
- By September 2016, China will requite 784 million tons
- By June 2025, it will be consuming 1568 million tons and
- By March 2034, it will have exceeded current global production
requiring 3136 million tons
- This cannot be done!
- In 2007, figures of world annual production of meat was 260 million tons
- the US consumed 38 million tons
- China nourished itself on 69 million tons
- Population is being squeezed into smaller spaces while the

demands for the spaces and elements increases
- High pressure in concentrated areas


GEO 702 LECTURE 04 PROBLEM-SOLVING DATE: Sep.14th and Sep.19th
GREATER CHANCES OF -What are the chances that we will be able to get out of this problem?
FAILURE THAN SUCCESS
- Combination of:
- 1.Technology
- 2. Society
- 3. Resources
- These factors to what we do to deal with our global issues
-
Societal Collapse Choices
- Why chances of failure exceed chances of success?
- It is an uphill battle
- Main point: there is a greater chance of us not succeeding than
succeeding
***5 Approaches (know)***

1. AWARENESS
1. Prediction is a problem: A society does not anticipate the

problem
- How do you anticipate the future?
- Oil prices will drop because of abundance
- The problem is that this is unusual and trying to predict that far
into the future, the optimal period should be 5 years
- Take a look at the past and the present and then project but things
change
- One of the problems we had is that if we take a look at the history
of the planet is that we did not know it would be like this at the
present
- 1900 and 1956 – prediction: oil will start to drop in the future
- Hubert (1956) – He said that in the 90s we would reach peak oil
- We do not know and we cannot predict the future
- We never understand what will happen
- We do not know the problem until we get involved it in
- Use past and present trends to predict future occurrences
What was the point of the movie?

- We see thi gs ut e do ’t u dersta d that there is a da ger
- We see something and maybe there is a bit of a problem but we
do ’t apply to u h a d do ’t do u h
- We see something and apply a dramatic action
- Anticipation is key
- We do not anticipate the problem

2. MEASURE OF SEVERITY
- A society recognizes there is a problem but does not appreciate

the severity of the problem
- We do not think that what we are seeing are actual problems
- E.g. rabbit
- Examples:
1. Humans > technology leading to obesity
2. Parti les less tha 2.5u i dia eter are referred to as fi e
particles and are believed to pose the greatest health risk.
Because of their small size, fine particles can lodge deeply into
the lungs
3. Diabetes cases are rising – cost for us in the future is great
4. Ambulances are being rebuilt to increase in size due to size of
patients
3. AWARENESS BUT WILL NOT ADDRESS IT
- A society appreciates that there is a problem (possibly severe) but

neglects to address it
- Could be deliberate or?
- Harper did not believe in global change
- In order to increase economy, politicians deny there is a problem
- Truth of global warming is inconvenient to be believed in
- Heads i the sa d
- In a 2010 study, people that believe strongly in hierarchy, authority
and individualism ( in the US this is one of the main cores of their
beliefs ) are predisposed not to believe the scientific consensus
that hu a a ti ity is ausi g da gerous ha ges i the Earth’s
climate system, because man-made climate change poses a threat
to their vision of absolute freedom
- We are also fa ed ith the pro le of stupidly o fide t people
- If you really thi k the e iro e t is less i porta t tha the
e o o y, try holdi g your reath hile you ou t your o ey –
Dr. Guy McPherson
4. SOLUTIONS ARE TRIED BUT THEY FAIL
- A society may perceive the problem as a serious threat and tries to

solve the problem – but fails
- E.g. fisheries in coast
- Black bears in Ontario
- We knew ahead of time there was a problem (species decline) so
we dropped the quotas

**All of these 4 are failures that society has not been able to deal with the
global problems*****
5. RECOGNITION, ACTION, SUCCESS
- A society recognizes a problem as serious, acts and succeeds

- Electric cars
- Ozone layer – we find substitutes and ban the compounds that is
causing the ozone layer damage
- Pesticides: it is very efficient and does not remain in the
environment
- SO2, CO2, NO3 – predictions: generation growth
- Agriculture – we can alter genes: we can change corn as in how
much water it needs
- Problems in the west due to draught – solution: change the crop
- But then we have genetic modified products
Equal?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
- We seem to be able to change our technology but getting people to

accept it is the problem



GEO 702 LECTURE 02 HAZARD & RISK DATE: September 12th and 14th
Week 2
DEFINITIONS HAZARD
- It is an element that could post risk
- E.g. stairs are a hazard
- Could fall going up or down
RISK
- The likelihood of damage – the possibility of something happening
- The probability of something happening
- Often expressed as a fraction (1 in a million)

POSSIBLE PESTICIDE - Hazard

LINKS - Measured in a lab
- How much substance is needed to kill or injure an experimental
animal
- Preferable to testing on humans
- We make inferences that if something happens in an animals it will
have effects on humans
- Pesticide – hazard
- Key is how often do we spray?
- How much? Zika – we have been spraying.
Benefits:
-More food – less loss (growing and storing)
-Better looking food – not as many blemishes
-More acceptable to consumers – less loss
-We store food we want to spray – peanut butter: we store the peanuts.
But, mice are a problem. They defecate in the peanuts.
-Therefore it is cheaper (than organic)
Risk:
- This is the real world – what is important!
- How is it used?
-How much of it is used?
-How often is it used?
-When will you exhaust the environment?
Statistics:
- Approximately 250 basic chemicals made by more than 50
companies are registered for use as pesticides in food and feed
production in the united states
- More than a quarter a million US children aged 1-5 ingest a
combination of 20 different pesticides every day
- Overall, 20 million children aged 5 and under eat an average of 8
pesticides every day
- Pesticide use has invcrteased 50 fold since 1950, and 2.5 million
tons of industrial pesticides are now used each year
- Some 610 000 children aged 1-5 consume a dose of neurotoxic
organophosphate insecticides that the government deems unsafe
-methyl parathion – use is legally prohibited

- Pesticide highly toxic to humans and birds (EPA, 1997). Methyl parathion
is only allowed to be used on certain open agricultural fields
-Mississippi 1996
-In Canada:
-2, 4 D is the most commonly used herbicide. I was a major component of
Agent Orange and it is still used in lawn care products. Linked to cancer in

dogs.
Produce with Highest levels of pesticide residues:

Best:
1. Onions
2. Sweet Corn
3. Pineapples
To watch:
-Apples
-Celery
-Cherry tomatoes
-Peaches
-Potatoes
- The risk to us is consuming given that farmers have been spraying fruits
with pesticides increasingly every year
- You can find pesticide residue in fruits and vegetables in the grocery store
-------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HEALTH CARE COSTS – What could pesticides do to you?
FACTORS - Pesticides that are associated with fruits and vegetables
Pesticides are associated with:

- Low sperm count – this becomes a concern to us become it results
in higher infertility levels
- 1/6 of couples are infertile: 40% males and 40% females and 10%
both being infertile
- Birth rate decreases
- Causing low birth weight and birth defects
- Interfering with child development and cognitive ability
- Causing neurological problems
- Disruption of hormones
- Causing a variety of cancers, including leukemia, kidney cancer,
brain cancer, and non-Hodgki ’s ly pho a
Case study:
A study in 1998 f preschool children in northwester Mexico examined the
neurobehavioral impacts from relatively exposure to various pesticides.
The Yaqui Valley Indian community had adopted chemical based
agricultural and, therefore, children are routinely exposed to aerial
pesticide spraying as well as daily household bug spraying. There have
been high levels of organochlorine pesticides measured in newborn cord
blood and breast milk in this community. Compared to children from the
Foothills community, who are less exposed but otherwise similar for
genetic, economic and social featu es…

PRESENT VS. FUTURE COSTS – significant financial, economic and social costs on the Canadian
COSTS economy and people. In terms of increased health care costs, missed days
of work, and reduced worker productivity, air pollution costs Canadians
and the Canadian economy billions of dollars per year
- Another problem is aging

- Health care costs start to escalade from the age of 70 on
- We need to worry about this because we are living longer
- Canadian had the highest birth rate of any developing population
after WW2
- Healthcare costs will increase 1% per year
- Future concern will be the cost of healthcare
- NL and NWT will be most impacted
- Ontario not as much
Everything that we do exposes us to hazards

- It is how we do things that determine the risk
- So risk and benefit are more difficult to define (and measure)
- Personal viewpoints should be important
- Who benefits?
Ethics
- What should we do about climate change?
- Not all should do uestio s a e ethi al
- How should you cook scrambled eggs?
But the question of doing something about climate change is ethical
because it involves choices
-People have conflicting interests
- The better-off among us (nations) – Canadians will have to reduce

emissions of greenhouse gases
- This will save future generations from the chance of a hotter world
- But – how do we evaluate the well-being of future generations
versus our well-being (especially as they are more likely to have
more material goods than we do)
- They will be richer
CANADIAN RANKING
CLIMATE CHANGE Estimation
PERFORMANCE Ca ada’s ai pollutio is espo si le fo p e atu e deaths, 92000
emergency- oo isits a d 6 isits to a do to ’s offi e i a ea , a d
that the economic cost of air pollution-related illness and death in Canada
tops $125 billion a year.
COMMENTS – WHY? - Combination of short – and long term exposure

- Cumulative deaths by 2031 will hit 800,000
- Vast majority will be people over 65
- - Heart and lung conditions (pressure from contaminants)
- - Your parents after 2031 will be affected

- - Demographic structure – baby boomers
This is a concern. We have pesticides and a concern about air.
FUTURE POPULATION RICHER – BUT?
- Richer in the sense of material goods

- BUT
- Dilemma
- What do we do now? We are paying now to help out future
generations
- Do we spend now to prevent?

- Do we spend in the future to correct? – If there is a problem
- Pay now or pay later?
-We are for instant gratification

-If we spend money now we wont have money in our wallet to by the
things we like
-Any changes we make are going to be slow
Moral question:
- Are all deaths equally bad?
- Climate change will cause some deaths
- Many may die before they bear children
- Snakes are moving north from the USA for instance as well as
other disease vectors
- Is their non-e iste e a ad thi g ?
- Is toda ’s i h pe petuati g i justi e o the o ld’s poo ?
- What if climate change leads to worldwide catastrophe?
- It is in our interest that we start doing something about this

problem
What is the real cost of action versus inaction over the 21st century?
- Mitigation costs – jobs
- Carbon costs
- Climate destruction costs

- Worse storms
- Floods
- Forest fires
- The cost of action is about 3% if we do something
- The cost of non action:
- The costs of carbon damage and climate damage does way up than
the cost of taking action
The cost of mitigating climate change?

- 3%
- If we do not do anything about it we do not know how much but
higher for sure
- How are we going to stop floods from the ocean?
- How are we going to stop disease spreading?
Do we spend or not? If so How much??

- Spending involves sacrifice
- Jobs, taxes, slowing of development
- GDP impact:
- Development slowed but in the long run it will pay off
Action or Inaction?
- Time
- When we look at environment there are 2 problems:
- 1. It takes a long time before we see what is happening
- There is a break in time and in space
- For instance:
- We spray crops in Africa with DDT and penguins in Antarctica have
DDT in their cells
- Canada and other nations do not take an initial step because they are
waiting for other nations to act
Climate Action
- policy costs
- damage
Climate inaction will costs us more
- Most of this is common sense

- Elementary principle that you should not do something for your own
benefit if it harms another person
Climate change will cause harm:
1. Heat waves
2. Disease spreading
3. Floods
Flooding of coasts caused by climate change has already begun

- for decades, scientists warned that global warming was causing land
ice to melt, causing oceans to expand
Sep.2016
-Lauderdale
- Take all roads and raise them up
- Very costly
- State money has ignored pleas and tried to block plans by the military to
head off future problems at the numerous bases imperiled by a rising sea.
Ke Bu k alled o e ilita p oposal pa t of a adi al li ate ha ge
age da
- Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most

impacted by climate change
- Developed countries – high CO2 emissions per capita
- Developing countries will have high vulnerability
- Who should pay for it?
- Should we ask every country to cut their economies
Disasters:
- Increase in meteorological events from 1980 to 2012
- Increase in hydrological events
- Increase in climatological events
The overall trend is up, an indication that something has been happening that
we have to be concerned about. What we see now is just a start.
- Economic losses: 255 billion dollars p/year
If rainfall changes its pattern (amount, timing and location)
- Local food supplies will be affected by this

- Supplies of safe drinking water will change
- E.g. Ontario Lake: only 1% water is added every year, everything else
is glacial water
- Water will become more expensive
- Larger scale migration of people could be a response – poverty
(People who have traditionally lived in the same area for generations
will have to move – where will they go?) – this is not bad because if
we depend on our birth rate alone our economy will drop
Global warming is not BENIGN
Hoover Dam/ Lake Mead 2008

- Water level decreased over time
- From 2007 and 2014 the level has decreased considerably – this will
impact electricity and water supply
- Vegas by itself has been impacted by draught, however casinos give a

false impression
- Crops are being grown in the area as well as golf courses – we will see
an increase in food prices
- Why do we do this? Why do we not worry?
- Vegas – the casinos and recreational activities – there is water
everywhere but the casinos have brackish water. It gives the image
that there is no problem, that there is an abundance of water
All of us contribute:
- Driving a car or taking public transit
- Using electrical power
- Buying anything that has been manufactured and or transported
- Drinking bottled water
All these contribute to the generation of greenhouse gases (contribute to

climate change)
- Inescapable? Our benefits do harm others
Not a simple matter of weighting benefits and costs

- Can we even get the benefits and costs?
- Climate change performance Index 2014

Measure of climate change performance:
- Canada = very poor
- We are still one of the majoring contributors of the problem
- We are in a bad position compared to the rest of the planet
- Ontario was the worst contributor to air pollution
- We are 4th from the bottom
- In 2016:
- We have improved from 4th from the bottom to 6th in the bottom
It all comes down to Attitude:

- Keep calm and bury your hand in the sand
- Do ’t thi k that the e is a p o le

GEO 702 LECTURE Christianity Malthus Darwin DATE: Sept. 26th
INDIVIDUAL VS MASS
VIEWS Major Themes of the Course
- A single, unified, global ecosystem – a collection of sub-systems
but all are interconnected
- Pressures result in
- CONFLICT AND UNCERTAINTY
How We got here from there

N. American viewpoint
- There are remnants in all of us from ideas from the past
- These ideas carry with them consequences for the system
- These illust atio s appl to Weste so iet – though all societies are
dependent on their past – and on their relationships with other societies
- Why do N. American societies use resources the way they do?
Survival and Usage:

 Older Societies – Survival dictates using the environment – in ways
influenced by the limits of technology
 Little perceived damage
- No records of base environment and resources
- Lower human population numbers
- More primitive, localized technologies
- E ploitatio of the s ste is o al
CHRISTIAN ETHIC ARE ANCIENT SOCIETIES BETTER – EXPLOITATION I“ NO‘MAL
Christianity
 The Christian ethic is anti-natural. The chief function of nature is to
serve human needs
- The God said let us make man in our image let them have dominion
o e the fish of the sea, o e the i ds i the ai a d…o e all the ea th a d
o e e e eepi g thi g upo the ea th
- God said to the e f uitful a d ultipl a d fill the ea th a d su due it
and ha e do i io o e e e li i g thi g
 This is not good for the environment because it makes us think
that we are superior to other organisms
The Consequences of Dominion

 Nature is the source of animal instinct
 Humans are the lone entities with intelligence and a soul
- So humans protect their interests from nature
o Therefore Humans are separate from nature
This is a very dangerous approach
-------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Capitalism and the Industrial Revolution

 Late 1700s – rise of manufacturing, spread of the factory system
and migration to urban areas
 Population increases (DR drops) therefore pressure on the land
increases – the rural landscape becomes more commercialized
 Goal is to increase wealth, especially linked to efficient, centralized
management
CAPITALISM  Viewpoint of exploitation
The Imperial Viewpoint of Nature

 Combination in the 1800s of Christian ethic and the Capitalism
viewpoint (you can explore the environment and feel good about it
because your religion backs it up)
 Humans are supreme – the goal is to create human-created
landscapes that will serve humans (example – farmland)
 Humans will dominate – the Imperial Viewpoint
Development to this Point

1. Human beings are separate from Nature
2. Nature is a support system for Human Beings and their wants
3. This is an anthropocentric viewpoint - one that is human centered
– on wants and needs
------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dissension
DISSENSION FROM 1. The Concept of Romanticism
MASS VIEWPOINT  Thoreau (New England) in the 1850s wrote of the destruction
or resources (woodlands)
 He stressed that a balance should exist – the concept of an
integrated nature
 This is an extension of previous work (another English writer
alled White that atu e is a o u it of e uals
 This is a bio-centric viewpoint – centered on the environment
The idea that we should be involved with the environment and just live off
the land
It is an ideal/romantic version on the way the system works
------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Malthusian Doctrine
 First published in 1798, Malthus attempted a linkage between
population growth and resources
MALTHUS
 The concept revolved around the exponential growth of
population (an immutable law according to Malthus) and the
arithmetical expansion of resources (the concept of limits
especially linked to agricultural land and food supplies)
 The combination of these two factors produced an inevitable

check on population. This check was produced by famine,

plague and war
He said that population

would increase exponentially
Geometric progression – multiply by 2 every time. This produces the

graph. Passion between the sexes = very high population growth rate.
Resources will not be sufficient for everyone. Agriculturally (can keep up
with population if we keep up with food supply). How? Use more land.
Population will be greater than our resources. Malthus said this would be
inevitable to happen. The exponential line and the straight line will
ALWAYS cross. There will be a danger point.
 The conclusion revolves around the concept that exploitation and

the natural system cannot keep up to the demands placed upon it
DEMANDS AND  The human system then will rise and fall in cycles. Shortages will
EXPLOITATION occurs and there are limits to the system
Irish Potato Famine – potato production increased = population expanded;

potato production decreased = millions starved to death or migrate, and
the population that is left than is the same that was initially present
 A Neo-Malthusian viewpoint is a linkage of population and

resource shortages
------------------------------ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Downplaying of Malthus and the Rise of Darwin
 Malthus runs into the problem of ever-opening resources (North
America)
 Darwin is backed partially by the ideas of Malthus (the inevitability
DARWIN of conflict) and the writings of such authors as Melville (Moby
Dick) – symbol of nature: nature vs. humans
 Darwin on his South America and the Galapagos develops a very
pessimistic viewpoint concerning nature
The Galapagos
 El Nino provides e ide e of the uelt of atu e as this sea lio
pup is starving to death
 E olog is the dis al s ie e
- Darwin realized that we have a problem.
- Species change to adapt and that produces differences
Ex. Eye shape- response to the glacier periods

Da i ould t sa that people e ol e e ause that ould e ake

people not divine
- Species respond to physical laws
- There is a bondbetween species and the bond is one of the
violence -> the survival of the more fit
- This becomes the survival of the fittest and the moral right of the
strong to survive
- Capitalism took this idea
------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GEORGE MARSH GEORGE MARSH (1801-1882)
- Part of the problem of the separation of humans and nature would
be lack of concern for consequences – if they are separate then
the actions of the controlling mechanism do not negatively impact
on the resource being used
- As well there would be not be permanent changes in the resource
- Influenced by theories of the time
- Marsh was appointed American Ambassador to Italy
- As he travelled he documented the impact of human civilizations
 He noticed that the rivers described in the books are now dry
and shallow and so on
 How theoretically Babylon looked like: fountains, green, what
actually found: ruins and dirt and no water and no people
 He thought maybe: we used out all the resources or they took
water out faster than it came back
- Ma sh ote a ook Ma a d Natu e the ha ged to The Ea th
as modified by human actio
- It may not be a divine right to conquer and change habitats
 There are consiquences
- When he came back to states, his book was used almost as a
textbook. US is the first country to have national parks
e e the se o d a d a ideas e e ased o his book


GEO 702 LECTURE 01 INTRODUCTION DATE: September 12th
DEFINITION: DEBT DAY TOTAL RESOURCES CONSUMED

VS CAPACITY OF PLANET TO GENERATE THOSE RESOURCES
CALCULATION : NATURAL RESOURCES GENERATED DIVIDED BY HUMAN

CONSUMPTION THAT YEAR – THEN CALCULATED FOR DAY WHEN THE
TOTAL IS BELOW 0
DEFICIT YEAR DATE WHEN THE BACK ACCOUNT GOES DRY
PROBLEM OF AMOUNTS
P
R USE
E
D
I TO ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF YEARS FOR A VARIABLE TO DOUBLE, TAKE
C THE NUMBER 70 AND DIVIDE IT BY THE GROWTH RATE OF
T THE VARIABLE.
I
O
N
RESOURCES ARE NOT, THEY BECOME
EXPLANATION
RULE OF 70/72 The rule of 70 states that in order to estimate the number of years
for a variable to double, take the number 70 and divide it by the
growth rate of the variable. This rule is commonly used with an
annual compound interest rate to quickly determine how long it
would take to double your money
Supply:
if China doubles its use of copper - increase in standard of living > it
will go faster than the 7% economic growth
This is the danger
If China doubles its population in 10 years - think of a population of
1.3 billion
world population should reach about 9 billion by 2050

Why do we stop? 10 billion

Use?
Per capita emissions of greenhouse gases that will give us a
reasonable temperature in the atmosphere should be about two
tones per person
If we can limit the production per person by 2 times it will be ok
US and Canada average now- 20 tones per person
But
depends on details - amounts and use
What is a resource and why do we treat them in this manner?

DEFINITION OF - Resources are not, they become

RESOURCES - -They are not static but expand and contract in response to human
ZIMMERMAN needs and human actions – Zimmerman, 1951
- Therefore, the way in which we handle resources change
- We think differently now than what we used too
But,
Depends on: details: amount and use
Why do we treat the environment in this manner? – the enemy is us!
-The real experts, the more they know, the less optimistic they are about
the system
-E.g. fish pulled out of the great Lakes
-It is unusual now to find fish now that do not have problems
-Bird with crossbill – they do not live long
-Niagara region was one of the most contaminated regions in Canada
-E.g. tortoise in the Galapagos – we are eliminating species at an alarming
rate because we are changing the environment around us
– less biodiversity
Why? Because we need land for other purposes for instance or because of
global warming
Cleveland River
Human have choices

- What should be developed? Do we really need to explore oil in the north?
- Consideration of development (yes or no?)
CHOICES - How development should proceed
-If we open a mine in the north we need to cut the forest. How do we do
this? Fastest? Cheapest? Least impact?
-Rate of development is KEY
-Eventual disposal of the product and waste of development

RESOURCES
- Resources are not, they become
- They are not static but expand and contract in response to human needs and human actions –
Zimmerman, 1951
- Resources change according to current needs
- Parks in Africa – NEED to protect animals in order to bring more people to the park

GEO 702 LECTURE 04Perception by Culture DATE: Sept. 21st and 26th
Flexibility with resources will be our way out in regards to survival and
food security for instance
Resources are flexible and sometimes we find more ways or improve
efficiency to obtain them
They are based on wants and how we make decisions about the
environment
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Environmental Determinism:
- The physical environment (emphasis on climate and terrain) is the
active force in shaping the development of cultures
------------------------------- - Human society is a passive product of physical surroundings
What determines our - Similar physical environments would be likely to produce similar
culture? cultures
ENVIRONMENTAL
DETERMINISM HUMAN SOCIETIES ARE PASSIVE PRODUCTS
Trying to explain why societies have developed the way they do

-The physical environment around us is the main influence in our decisions
- Resources for instance, create the situations in which society needs to
live in – so the environment shapes society
- Then, society is passive – we let environment shape us
- Q: in Canada we depend a lot in our resources – oil, water.
- Why do we grow wheat on the prairie?
-Prairies are flat and it has the right type of soil and rainfall
-That is not why we grow wheat in the prairies
-We grow wheat because we have a market for it – we choose what to do
and that will influence the size or the farm, the machinery
-There is another influence besides the physical environment –us
-If 2 environments are equal and if the environment shapes both societies
than the two societies would be the same
Climate:
- Influences the way that we are
- E.g. British are cool and reserved because the climate is cool and rainy
- Climate determines who we are
- Hypothesis by Huntington
HOW DO WE DISPROVE THIS?
Proof? Disproof?

- Similar environments = similar civilizations/societies

- Environments over time = changes create changes in societies
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT IS THE ACTIVE FORCE
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTS = SIMILAR CULTURES

--------------------------------
Perception:
Look at similar environments:
ROLE OF PERCEPTION - Large cities
- Elongated, hilly sites
- Flanked on all sides but one by water – i.e. In ocean, river, bay
- Both connected to adjacent land by bridges built in the 20th
century
- Pattern between Toronto and St. Francisco
- Toronto: grids – British survey system (N, S, E, W)
- Conclusion: the environment did not shape the way the city is
shaped, society did
NON CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT = CULTURES STAYING THE SAME
2nd Analysis:
- Change over time
- No change in environment then the society should not change
Change over Time

- The same environment can be used in ways as needs, technologies
and institutes change
- KEY: if there is no change in the environment in theory society
should ’t eed to change
- But if society WANTS to change?
- E.g. Yonge street 50 years ago and now
- Older areas were destroyed to build the Eaton Centre
- This is a change in our way of life, it is not a change in the
environment
- Conclusion: perception is also operating besides the environment
REALITY VS PERCEPTION
Perception
- Each person and cultural group has mental images of the
environment
- These images are shaped by?
- It is possible that the choices people make will depend in what the
perception us rather than the reality
- “o to u dersta d rea tio s we ust k ow how a ulture sees its
environment
- Perception is a key when we take a look at how people operate

- Usually not performed at the individual level – perception in

regards to groups
- Perception on demographics for instance, Europeans vs. Asians vs.
North Americans or Muslims vs. Catholics vs. Buddhists
Example:
Tomb site
Why would someone build a tomb in the middle of mountains?
Is it because you are trying to create a lack of access?
It depends on how a culture perceives location
Mythical creatures would be located there – white dragon and tiger; these
would only be found in hills and mountains. The advantage is that this
would be an area of benefit (water) and vital breaths (if they built a tomb
there it would guaranty wealth, prosperity and honor)
- Feng Shui
- Direction of buildings in relation to the environment
Geomancy (feng-shui)
- East Asian world view and art
- Traditional systems of land planning
- Sites for houses, villages, temples and graves
- Terrains, compass directions, soil textures, and patterns of streams
are important
- The end pattern of location is different because factors of
economics take a lesser rile in location decisions
- Need to understand in order to analyze what other cultures think
-------------------------------- about the system
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSSIBILISM
Possibilism
- Possibilists do not ignore the environment but rather treat is as an
influence
- Cultural heritage is treated as being at least as important as the
physical environment in shaping human responses
- Significant?
- Humans are considered to be part of the landscape
 Culture is at least as important as the environment
 Cultural background is important to understand what we do
 Human beings are not passive
Possibilism is a problem because it is so wide, it does not let us

explain why we make our choices
This comes back to Resources:

Are defined in terms of:
1. Human perceptions

2. Wants and needs

3. Technological skills
PROBABILISM 4. Legal limits such as property rights and environmental laws
5. Financial and institutional arrangements
6. Political, cultural and religious customs
7. Location and Accessibility
These things influence what we see as a resource and how we use it
Technological Skills
- A possibilistic viewpoint of a physical environment would state that the
environment offers a range of choices and limitations
- The choice a culture makes is guided by cultural heritage and the range of
perceived choices
- Perhaps the higher the technological level of the culture, the greater the
number of possibilities and the fewer the limitations
OTHER FACTORS
Property Rights and Environmental Laws
 These produce legal limits on the use of resources and the
environments that they are developed and use in:
- Questions of private land ad dump sites
- Construction on or near wetlands (Who owns beaches on a public
lake?)
Financial/ Institutional Arrangements

 Additions and constraints that may be added to the development
and/or management of resources
- In Ontario responsabilities for water quantity and water quality lie
with separate agencies
Religion and Cultural Customs

 Influence on rural land uses for example
- Development of the lo g lot syste alo g the a ks of the “t.
Lawrence river - linked to modes of transport, the church and
inheritance
- It’s the ulture that deter i es how the la d is used – every year
the farms would get smaller and smaller
- The lands of Spain and Moroco – separated by the Strains of
Gibralter – Muslim Morocco does not raise pigs but Spain does
Location and Access

 Distance is a barrier to the concepts associated with resources
- Distance is measured in terms of??

- Time and Cost

This has an impact on the feasibility of developing/using a resource
PROBABILISM
When we look at a culture we see something stands out about the culture
– that will be the factors that we create the choices
I.e. We do not grow oranges on the North Pole
- Environmental probabilism is a thought that considers the

probabilistic relationships between physical environments and
cultural behavior
- Environment undoubtedly influences humans; humans in turn
change their environment and the interaction is so intricate that it
is difficult to know when one influence ceases and the other begins
Major Themes of the Course

- A single, unified, global ecosystem – a collection of sub-systems
but all are interconnected
- Pressures result in
- CONFLICT AND UNCERTAINTY


GEO 702 LECTURE 08Extinction Preservation Conservation DATE: Oct. 3rd
REVIEW
By the late 1800s have Empirical view, Darwinism, Malthus
At the same time have social commentators writing about poor living
conditions –i.e. Dickens – social consequence (easy to apply to
environmental concerns) because people do ’t read scholarly literature
unless you put it in something popular
GROWTH
- This is also a period of tremendous growth and therefore of
Concerns becoming part environmental exploration
of mainstream thinking - First world is expanding
- Domination and taming of wilderness
- J.A. Ma do ald do tri e of useful ess - if it works, do it
- Manifest destiny – might is right
- > Railway workers as sod usters
What changes this in

favor of concern for the Tipping Point Viewpoint
environment
Extinction – to be noticed
Familiar species
Large numbers
Short period of time
Examples:
1. O ea fish u ers o ri k of ollapse
 The amount o fish in the oceans has halved since 1970, some
populations (tuna, mackerel) have fallen by 75% according to
the study by WWF
EXTINSION- EXPECTED
Ex. dinosaurs
- Extension is a natural process
- Question is not about the process but about what humans are ding
to the process - speed
Probably 99% of all species are now extinct

- When all local populations are eliminated, they cannot be replaced
with migration and the species dies out
- Reasons:
1. Competition with other species
Reasons for parks 2. Inability to adapt to new diseases o predators (ex. Bacteria
evolve)
3. Destruction of habitat (something humans are good at)

- The concern is what are humans doing to these processes plus

they add to the list
4. Commercial exploration
If you are familiar to what we are destroying, then it is more likely that you
care and protect that
Human beings tend not to notice what stretches out for long periods of
time
Extinction is a natural process but we are speeding it
Example: Passenger Pigeon

- Most numerous bird on the planet
- Estimated pop. 5 billion
The numbers that they had in the system were very large
The sense of Loss

- Passenger pigeons were so numerous that flocks flying overhead
would blot out the sun for hours
- Branches of trees would break under the weight of the birds
landing on them
- Villages would have competitions with small cannons – who could
Preservation kill the most
- In 1867 – 1 billion killed in Wisconsin
Conservation How – destruction of habitat

With our technology
There are some species that are going instinct because of us
Our land usage
Ex. Passenger pigeon -> most numerous bird population on planet
First conservation Estimate population - 5 billion
Movement – 1890s Are now almost extinct
Small towns used to have competition of who would shoot most of the
birds
In 1978 the US passed laws to protect the birds but it was too late
Last Passenger Pigeon died in 1916 in a zoo

- The last sighting in Canada was in 1902
Why massive and quick extinction?
Hunting and sport with technology
Prime reason:
- Destruction of forest habitat in clearing for agricultural
development
This occurred because of agriculture land and killing them with activities by
us (hunt)

Bison in North America

Need for concrete - Similar timing to the passenger pigeon
motivation - In 1800 about 60 million animals and an interlinked population of
300 000 Plains Natives
- By 1879 – few animals and tribes were starving
Extirpation
- Bison loss in North America
- Note the railway dissecting the range
Similarity of Reasons:
- Hu ti g e o o y of hides
- Food for railway development, hides and bones shipped east for
fertilizer
- Sport (shooting from rail coasters)
Summary
- Writers such as Thoreau arguing for preservation
- James Audubon publishing Birds of America
- The US Department of the Interior established in 1849 – eventually
responsible for parks in 20th century
- The evident disappearance of species
Audubon
- Saw flamingos in California, asked a friend to kill some and stuff
them so he could paint them
The writings of George Marsha and the concept of human actions does
modify the environment
- The establishment of preserved areas by law
- First national reserve in the world is Yosemite in 1864
- Banff is established as a reserve in 1885
- Algonquin is established as a provincial park in
> there is a reaction to these problems that we have
For you to notice the extension, the loss must be visible.

Also, the disappeara e fa t should e related to you so eho you do ’t
are that so e spe ies i Cali that you’ e e er heard of efore
Hunting and technology

Problems: PRESERVATION or CONSERVATION

- Original movement puts emphasis on preservation
- Greater contrast to outright exploitation
- Preservation implies no development
- Problems:
- Is an area pristine to start with?
- Do you protect an area from elemental natural forces such as fire?
- Preservation means no development because you protect it as it is
(this is a problem)
We also like cute animals (bears and deer) and try to protect them but
then create an unnatural ecosystem (less predators that kill those animals
leading to population explosion)
CONSERVATION
Conservation implies use – specific use
Definition:
- Greatest use for the greatest period of time for the greatest good
of the people
- This is more of a utilitarian approach
- In forestry, the forests should be managed for sustained yield
Greatest use for the greatest period of time for the greatest good of the
people
- However, it depends on who is making the decisions (politicians do not
care)
First Conservation Movement – 1890s

- Important as a concept because this is developed not for
emotional reasons but for rational utilitarian motivations
- Rationale
Reasons
1. Resource Scarcity – Resource scarcity: therefore efficiency

needed
- The unending frontier of American development was shutting
down
- No e pio eers as u i ilized la d is used up
- Therefore orderly development was the next step
- still exploitation, but more efficient and rational management
The conclusion is that we need to be more efficient in how we handle this

– you cannot repeat and move on and repeat, but you still need to allow
for exploitation
Example: map of America
Land is filling in, in a short period of time

Centre of Population – high pressure for resources
Frontier ethic – Population Pressure and loss of Frontier

Map: we have the states
In the East – we have civilization
I the West e ha e territories a d the u i ilized group
What created the soul of an American was the frontier line (1850) – when
you cross that line you are on your own, it was up to you to survive and
appreciate the environment: you had the difficulty of the native groups
and the wildlife
This was believed for years, so it shaped the population
What is the problem? What does the line do? The line starts moving West,
and the old territories start to become civilized
All of a sudden the line is pierced and the soul of the American is gone
How do we preserve this? National Parks
People should try to preserve and go to parks and be free
- Frederick Jackson Turner (1893): the US Census Bureau in 1890

notes that there is no longer a frontier line on their demographic
maps
- What does the US do? They buy Alaska
- If you do ’t ha e the fro tier? If you do ’t ha e Alaska? Where do
you go? SPACE
2. Detrimental Impacts - Detrimental effects of development

- Marsh had pointed out that America was squandering its heritage
- Realization that human activities could have negative impacts on the
environment
- More importantly these impacts could affect the ability of the economy
to few and develop
3.Social Reform Movements

- Rising education levels and progressive attitudes towards wise use of
resources
- Attitudes against trusts and combines
Scientific Rationality
Importance of concept of utility


GEO 702 LECTURE: 08 1st & 2nd Conservation Movements Canada DATE: October 17th

From last class (slides after midterm)
First conservation movement ‐1890s
‐ Important as a concept because this is developed not for
emotional reasons but for rational, utilitarian motivations.
 Rationale
1. Resource scarcity
‐ The unending frontier of American development
‐ Turner
2. Detrimental impacts
‐ Marsh pointed out that America was squandering its heritage
‐ Realizing human activities can have negative impact on the
environment
3. Social reform movements
‐ Rising education and attitude towards wise use of resources
‐ Attitudes against trusts and combines
4. Scientific rationality
‐ Government leading in the sense of management of recourses –
government agencies and policies
‐ Professional and sound management in all areas, including the
environment
‐ Ex. Costa Rica realized that the city was spreading into the forest,
so they looked at it economically and they started to create
national parks because it brings more money into country from
tourists.
Conclusion
The primary push is the one of self interest
One has to provide the motivation that is more than just a general
theory
___________________ ___________________________________________________________
Conservation means economy and development at the same time

The battle between 2 philosophers is still with us today ‐ ex. Sierra club
The other tendency out of this period for US and Canada:
‐ Establishment of parks,
‐ 1905 US established U.S forest service established
‐ 1906 First Canadian Forestry Conference

KNOW Concept of utility
‐ In both societies the concept of utility (use) takes priority over the
concept of virgin preservation‐ important for later developments
such as long term forestry leases in parks
‐ Benefit of arguing for wise use in rationla economic sense – use
same arguments as the opposition
‐ Ex. Take parks and allow some industry in it (ex. Hotel, etc) but you
cannot sell land, so you lease it.


Note order of title
Canadian Commission FIRST CONSERVATION MOVENMENT
of Conservation ‐ Marked by an emphasis on government action and agencies
‐ Emphasis‐ Canadian Commission of Conservation 1909 –“forests,
waters, lands, minerals, and wildlife are to be developed, used and
conserved”
‐ Looks good, but actually was created more for businesses to
explore the resources
‐ Note the order and emphasis of the statements
‐ Quote 1917 “conservation means economy and development at
the same time”
‐ First Chair of this was Clifford Sifton
Dominion Forests and ‐ He was involved in the urban and regional planning
Parks Act ‐ His commission operated as research company with exploration as
its objective
‐ Formation of 1911 of the Dominion Forests and Parks act
‐ Note, that forests s are first, the go parks in the name
_________________ _______________________________________________________
What ends the period of End of the period
partial concern for the ‐ WW1 creates a push for development that takes precedence over
environment the ideas of preservation and conservation
‐ Need timber, food, metals for war, Canada was major supplier
‐ Accented by a post‐ war recession and recovery
 Conflicts with developers and between government departs
 An end to a certain restrictions and a period in the 20’s of
unconstrained exploration

__________________ _________________________________________________________
1920’s Unconstrained Stress of war
exploitation ‐ The commission is dissolved in 1921
In the 20’s:
‐ Park boundaries shrink to allow for resource development
‐ Cabinet can change the boundaries of the park in the developer
comes to use the land
‐ The amount of agricultural land increased by 25%
‐ The amount of land allowed for development of ON and QB Hydro
increased by 140%
Impacts on parks: parks shrink
Long term leases implications – 99 yr leases

________________ ______________________________________________________
Summary of the 20’s
1. Government watchdogs are reduced
Similarities 1920’s to 2. Resource orienred businesses expand and lobby for increased
Harris Government and access to resources
current Federal Policies 3. Crown land and natonal parks space is reduced or leased (long
term agreements)
‐ Pressure (war and recession in this case) produces movement

away from protection ‐> the great

__________________________________________________________
1929 – stock crash – nearly 30% unemployed
Also a climatic disaster at the same time‐> massive drought
__________________
1930’s Economic ‐ Dry conditions
Depression ‐ Locus population increased
‐ 8 Years of Drought on the prairies – Locusts and Famine Starvation

Climate shift?
Second Conservation Moment
‐ The 1930s produce 2 different pressures:

1. Economic depressions
‐ Extreme pressure to broaden the resource base (employment)
‐ A common perception that this should be monitored
‐ This size of effort should be started and coordinated by
government

2. Environmental Concerns
‐ Original assumption that the great dust bowls striking Canada, the
USA and Australia were a great natural disaster
‐ After WW1 relaxed standards and the pressure of the recession
prompted development of western territory (farmland)
‐ Advertisements from that era state that rain would follow the
plow

Reality
‐ The surveys and settlement were done in a time of unusual
wetness. But no long‐term records to show this
‐ Collectively, the farming techniques were unsuited to prairie
conditions:
 Long, straight furrows
 No contour plowing
 Single crops (soil depletion and bare soil)
‐ Return to “normal” moisture and winds after the 20s
‐ Poverty and migration follow

‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
‐ Canadian and USA governments encouraged to acts
Governments directions ‐ Agencies to foster soil improvement, soil conservation, water
conservation and erosion control
‐ Similar solutions
‐ Large works and employment – building of dams, planting
windbreaks and new farming techniques


Agencies:

Canada
‐ 1935 Prairie Farm rehabilitation scheme

USA
‐ 1933 Tenessee Valley Authority
‐ 1940s integration of agencies such as Bureau of Fisheries and
Agriculture into US Fish and Wildlife Services

SUMMARY:
1. Emphasis in North America on economic rationale
2. Pragmatic arguments for environmental management
‐ In best interest to avoid calamities or excessive exploitation
‐ Greater cost in the long run by avoiding management
3. Humans are members of the environment not conquerors of the
land

40s and 50s
What Happens ‐ First factor is WW2
‐ Necessity of production (food and raw materials)
‐ Supply system needs ahead of degradation of the environment

Boom of the late 40s and 50s
Baby Boom ‐ Baby boom (Canadian BR is the highest in the world of any western
society) + high immigration rates
‐ Canada has the 2nd highest living standard in the world

Population pyramids

‐ Males on left

‐ Females on right

‐ Depression and war affected the pyramid

‐ More males born than females



Progress?
‐ Mindset that industrial growth for consumer products is necessary
to our well‐being
Progress is our most ‐ PROGRESS IS OUR MOST IMPORTANT PRODUCT
important product ‐ Expansion of the system:
 Trans‐Canada Highway (personal automobile)
 St Lawrence Seaway
 Urban expansion (Niagara fruit belt)
‐ Large, invasive projects that business gained from

Signs of problems Problem Indicators:
‐ 1951, International Joint Commission on the great lakes warns of
water quality deterioration
‐ 1955, Ontario department of Agriculture expresses concern over
loss of farmland in Southern Ontario
‐ 1961, Resources for Tomorrow conference recommends
conservation of non‐renewable resources and wans of potential
pollution problems
‐ 1961, Establishment of World Wildlife Fund
Rachel Carson ‐ 1962, Rachel Carson publishes Silent Spring

Book that Rachel Carson published: Silent Spring – DDT and nuclear testing

Concerns:
‐ Readable (popular) diatriable against DDT
‐ Nuclear testing, radionucleides in milk, strontium 90 in bones

‐ Introduction of the idea of indirect impacts (DDT in penguins in
Antarctic)

‐ Popularization of concepts such as the Food Web


GEO 702 LECTURE 09 Basics of Ecosystems DATE: October 24th

Abiotic
Standing State – importance of variance over time

Biotic
Standing crop ‐ Total amount of living material in a trophic structure

Dependence on Standing State

Problems from
structure Interdependence
Canadian Forests threatened by spruce budworm >>> spray
Spray:
1. Kills other species (I.e. bees)
2. Spread to water systems
3. Possible links to Rye’s syndrome (children diseases)

Note: Temporal and Spatial Separation
‐ The spraying worked but it went to the water system, and then spread to
other systems and many species

Decreasing Biomass with Pyramid Shape:
‐ Amount of biomass at higher trophic levels is less than that below
it
‐ The conversion of energy uses energy (feeding, digestion,
movement, etc.)
‐ On average there is a 90% loss when energy is transferred from
one level to the next
‐ Therefore only 3‐5 trophic levels can exist

Consequences/implications

‐ If we have this 90% loss within the system, by the time we get to
the top of the pyramid you get 1kcal
‐ The one on the top will be the one that really suffers – that is the
problem with the pyramid shape
‐ We depend on having Producers (plants, algae, cyanobacteria)
because we are the ones on the top of the pyramid
Consequences:
‐ If a lower level is affected it will have a more significant effect (%)
on the lesser biomass above
‐ Species at the top are more vulnerable to change as the
populations are smaller
‐ Aside: Lifestyle – can feed more population if we are all vegetarian

because there are less steps
‐ If we eat animals we need to add steps

Bio magnification (know)
‐ Sometimes referred to as “funneling”
‐ If materials added to the system do no break down into their
component parts they will “move up” the pyramid
‐ Because of energy loss there is less biomass to absorb the material
‐ This means that the concentration levels increase in the members
of species further up the food chain

Significance for upper levels:
Example:
Water> plankton> frogs> sunfish> grebes
Predators will be most affected > higher concentration of DDT > affect
CA2+ production>> fragile egg shells that crack

Resistance – Ancillary Problem
‐ Pesticide resistance

Consequences:
1. Humans are at the top of some food chains
2. Mercury, for example, can be found in Minimata, Japan or in the
English river in Ontario
3. Again, may not show for years or anywhere close to the original
source of the contaminant

‐ Minamata disease (mercury poison)– link to mercury
‐ Fish had been contaminated with mercury which then the village
in Japan consumed
‐ Levels of methylmercury chloride were very high
‐ 121 people were poisoned from eating the contaminated fish and
46 of which died. Dogs, cats, pigs, rats, and birds that were living
around the bay also showed symptoms
‐ The symptoms: numbness of the limbs and the area around the
mouth, sensory disturbance, and difficulty with everyday hand
movements. General paralysis, brain damage and death.
‐ In Canada, people had high levels of mercury in their blood, which
was blamed for birth defects in children.
‐ Aflotoxins (peanutbutter) linked to liver cancer
‐ Limited concentration but many products exceed the limit




GEO 702 LECTURE Modern Period, Silent Spring DATE: October 24th

‐ The start of the Third Conservation Movement
‐ Ecological Ethics
‐ Sustainable Earth

Modern Period
‐ Major inspiration from Silent Spring
‐ Emphasis on the inadvertent, non‐obvious problems of the food
web
Importance of ‐ Displacement:
displacements 1. Temporal Displacement
2. Spatial Displacement

‐ There is not enough time for species to evolve to current issues
(chemicals in the environment)

‐ Even if there were enough time to adjust it would be futile for the
new chemicals come from our labs in an endless stream

‐ We used to spread DDT on the fields against mosquitos, where
people would stand in the middle of the field with no masks

‐ High levels of DDT
‐ So they started to think how could you produce something that is
species specific? A lot of investigations on brain of specific insects
that will not kill other insects.
‐ But at that time DDT was cheap and worked for purposes
‐ Rachel Carlton was a start to the end of it, she gets DDT banned
Trends of the 60’s
PUSHES ALONG THE WAY:
‐ 1964 Stuart Udall – “The quiet crisis”
‐ 1966 Canadian Council of Resource Ministers – pollution and air
conference
‐ 1968 Concept of ZPG (Zero polulation growth)
‐ ex. River was caught on fire because of all the chemicals dumped
in the river (Cayabaga river)
‐ 1969 Pollution Probe started
‐ 1970 Paul Ehrlich Population, Resourses, environment (very
famous book)

Trends of the 70’s Deterrents
‐ Old spectre – resource shortages of the 70’s (oil, coffee, sugar)
 Demand or politically created

 Question of lifestyle, solutions and environmental degradation
 Example of Reagan – gutting of Clean Air Act so as to allow for
emissions from power plants and automobiles
Rationale that the cause of acid rain is not known and needs to
be further studied (delay)
Ranld Reygan gets in and gets the Clean air act
‐ Emissions from coal plants get dropped
‐ “we don’t know what causes acid rain so we have to do more
research” (but for now keep using)

Return to 20’s attitudes
Problem of government
action vs. words James Watt
‐ Reagan appointed Watt to head up the Department of the Interior
(resources, parks – 770 million acres)
‐ “My responsibility is to follow the scriptures which call up us to
occupy the land until Jesus returns. I do not know how many
future generations we can count on before the Lord returns.”
‐ He wanted to remove environmental regulations so you would not
increase the number of parks. He also wanted to open all parks to
explore oil resources
‐ Watt was in charge of resource preservation
‐ He championed the corporate rights of oil companies and other
Trends (Federal) entrepeneurs
‐ Wanted to sell government land
‐ Wanted to charge low prices for small industries
‐ “you don’t mess with national parks” because people get upset
‐ pushed oil companies
‐ 1982: One million Americans (big percentage of population that
time) sign a petition against Watt – he resigned
‐ Environmental concerns barely there

‐ Delaying tactics link to problem of cause and effect

Uncertainty
Ontario ‐ Concerns for lifestyle – price tags (cost, jobs, taxes) attached to
alternate strategies for resource usage
‐ Survey in early 80’s in Ontario:
‐ 69% believed that Ontario was no facing energy shortages in the
future (lack of support for conservation measures)
‐ so no need for conservation measures
‐ EX. At Ryerson JOR hall was built without light switches in the
offices, so if you needed to turn on the lights, you had to turn on
the light on the whole floor (no appreciation of resources)
‐ No commitment for conservation when it involved their cars or
required spending on their homes

‐ Ontario residents believed that a cut in consumption would

seriously restrict their lifestyles

‐ In the 80s, the conservation movement hung on:
‐ Partially dueled by fear (Love Canal 1978 as an example)
‐ Love canal was declared “clean” by the EPA in 2004

Love Canal Problems:
‐ 1953: City of Niagara Falls ignores Hooker’s warning and buys
canal for a new grade school
‐ 1955: 99th Street School completed on top of the canal and homes
were built around the perimeter
‐ 1958: children burned in puddle in playground
‐ 1959: Oily sludge oozing into basement of houses
‐ 1968: Expressway built and problems increased
‐ 1974: Residential pool uplifted by yellow, blue and orchid colors
‐ Resulted in birth defects (brittle bone disease)
‐ Neighborhoods were evacuated
‐ First published news about hazardous waste disposal

‐ Lack od focus changes with increasing concern for personal health
and lifestyle:
‐ Plus larger issues: Ethiopia, Acid Rain, Ozone

Does it go away?
‐ Toronto Star – September 23rd, 2010
‐ “Our lakes are getting dirtier”
‐ Environmental Commissioner releases annual report
‐ Water quality in the great lakes
‐ “The government talks a good game on the environment but does
not follow through” – At risk? Drinking water, air quality, wildlife
‐ Differences is in the legislation that has been passed and the
actions on the ground in the real world

2008
‐ The parties stressing the economy first and foremost will attempt
to maintain the perception that stronger environmental policies
will place the livelihood of Canadians at risk

Election of Conservatives 2006

‐ Stephen Harper – had been the Prime Minister of Canada since
2006
‐ In January 2008, the Office of the National Science Adviser was
phased out
‐ The mandatory long‐form census was replaced with a voluntary
national household survey in July 2010, reducing the availability of

reliable and detailed data
‐ The 2012 budget haled $5‐million in annual funding or the First
Nations Statistical Institute and eliminated it completely in 2013,
leading to 23 staff layoffs.

‐ Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in December 2011,
sidestepping an estimated $14 billion in penalties for
noncompliance with resuming emissions targets below 1990

‐ No attempt to do anything about the environment

‐ Changed an endangered habitat law and a Canadian Environment
Assessment Act

‐ Removal of trained information gatherers
‐ Removal of financial supports
‐ Destruction of data bases (some back 100 years)
‐ Threats to operation of opposition groups
‐ Change in international stances on the environment
‐ Promises to do something by dates far in future
‐ Acceptance of proposals by industrial groups
‐ Common sense revolution

Threats:
‐ In February 2012, Public Safety Canada identified
environmentalists as “issue‐ based domestic terrorists”
‐ The CBC released a list of seven environmental groups being
audited by the CRA: The David Suzuki Foundation
Trudeau government

One example – mining
‐ Legislation to protect massive boreal forests:
‐ Key to cleansing carbon emissions from the air Ontario will protect
at least 225 000 sq km of the Far North boreal region under its Far
North Planning Initiative 2008
‐ But they did not hire people to watch over this
‐ Mining companies staked two lies for railway tracks for the “Ring
of Fire” – area rich in gold, diamonds and chromite
‐ Companies are building mining camps and airstrips without
supervision – This is becoming the wild west

Water?
‐ 27 years since the province tightened up standards for sewage
treatment plants emptying waste into the great Lakes
‐ Population (Ontario)
‐ 1981‐ 8.6 million
‐ 2006 – 12.1 million



GEO 702 LECTURE 12 Recognition of Trouble? DATE: October 31st
Recognition of the trouble

- No doubt the system is in trouble
 Interconnections
 Upper level susceptibility
 Bio magnification
- Academic theory seemingly backed up by the facts of real life
KNOW NEW BARE SUBTRATE -> COLONIZING STAGE -> SUCCESSIONS STAGE -> CLIMAX STAGE
ECOLOGICAL
SUCCESSION
You have area that has been cleared for a period of time, so you have the invasion of
s all gree pla ts, ut the the taller grass a d ushes are showi g up, the there’s
more shade, and the trees are able to grow, and now there is space to hide for predators,
so the environment changes itself.
Do Change is normal and self created (SUCCESSIONS STAGE)
ecosystems
change Example: abandoned farmland:
themselves
takes about 70 years

- Biomagnification takes a chance to operate
Therefore, changes created by humans difficult to isolate
PCBSs are groups of organic compounds that are soluble in fat, not water, linked to
cancers. From graph: lake Ontario, Erie, Huron, Superior have concentrations of PCBs and

the fish does as well

In 2015 in St Lawrence 60% is restricted to eat
Historical evidence – indirect

Evidence - I 8 , it took lo sters to fill a fishi g s a k’s well i Chesapeake Bay
may have to - By 1880 it took 8000 – fisherman were finishing when the population was
be different younger. The older, mature fish were not there anymore. Cod needs to be 6-7
than our years old to reproduce. If you catch it before that time they will not reproduce,
normal and the population will decline
expectations - Indication?
- Smaller fish
- Less time to mature
- Impact on Reproduction
- This is why we need data in order to be able to observe the problem
- In 1879, the Maryland catch from part of Chesapeake Bay was 5 million pounds
of stripes bass
- In 1983, it was under 0.5 million pounds
- In the Canadian Maritimes between 1989 and 1993, the top 10 fish populations
dropped by 90%
- Acceleration of process = reduction of numbers
- Demand goes up
Lack of Awareness
- Seem that indications from the mid 1850s up to the present would be obvious
- Problem of time and spatial scales again
- Plus the problem of individuals or corporate self-interests
Switch to other fish

- The ever popular Slimehead >> Orange Roughy LOL
- We are turning to fish that in the past were less desirable
- Goosefish >> Monkfish: more appealing – sounds better
- We do ’t oti e as u h that other fish spe ies are disappeari g
- Toothfish >> Chilean Sea Bass
- There are no restrictions in what we can catch, as long as we have different fish
and we can satisfy ourselves we do it
- Best marketing move ever
Ignorance of Problems
Resource Economics
- Part of the problem lies in how we see resources
- Ruff pollutio Is a e o o i pro le
- Economics is the study of the exchange of goods, essentially and exclusively
determined by market value

- Influence of incentives and disincentives

How do we - The system covers the cost
view - Therefore the majority of economies are based on exploitation of environmental
resources? features
- Resources are of value – link to Zimmerman
- Resources are perceptual and linked to a function - therefore change
- Therefore resources are commodities – substitutable
We have always had substitutions
- When we look at products over time, they change, however the use does not
- Energy source diagram
- 1st source: wood
- Problem: heavy and difficult to transport, not efficient in burning, and as
population expands and moves further away, its takes longer to transport
- 2nd coal: the use of wood does not disappear just becomes less
- It is more efficient
- 3rd: oil
- Coal: generate electricity (China and India)
- We are used to substitution – we have always done it
- We have has a sequence through natural resource products to meet the same
needs
- We fall in original resource as price of substitute is lower
- Coal is 20% of our needs, when it used to be 60%
Case Study: Costa Rica

- Land was being bought up and rainforest was being cleared for wood and other
resources
- The problem is that it is a tropical environment so the soil depleted very quickly
and then you would have to buy a new area
- In 1970 – mandate to open 4 national parks – start of ecotourism
- Costa Rica started with this preservation idea

- However, they had the idea of using the parks

- 1995: 18% protected by government and 13% by private owned preserves
- The areas they picked had high biodiversity
- They were aiming at having tourists see wildlife
- They said that if you own a forest and you have tourists come to see it, they
would pay the owner of the forest
Costa Rica – Link to Ecotourism

substitution - Costa Rica has initiated numerous inventive programs to promote sustainable
of the use development
of a - One such project, organized by FUNDECOR works to sustainably manage more
resource than 13000 hectares of forest by developing forest management plans for
landowners
- Not only do the landowners end up with more money in their pocket, but also do
less damage to the forest as they remove valuable trees
- Government subsidy for the use of forests that paid off in the increase of tourist
revenues
- Land, labor and Capital are readily interchangeable

- If one is perceived to be in short supply, then the value relative to the others is
increased
- Assumption of a rational system – homo economics
- Goal of the system is to maximize benefits
- THE SYSTEM SHOULD WORK
- Increase trade >> increase money
- The system should go on as long as it works
Perception
- Different perceptions produce a feeling that the system will continue
Should a - Engineers positive that magic gadgets exist
faith in - Politicians assume that laws and bureaucracy will solve the problems
substitution - Activists assume that saints have no garbage
be reason
to relax? - So past practice would seem to indicate hat we will always find a substitute that
fits with our economics situation
- Therefore we can all relax


GEO 702 LECTURE 13 Sources Stress DATE: October 31st and November 7th
Sources of ecosystem problems
Problems associated with stress
Sources of stress:
- Need to look at the various aspects of stress and strain on
ecosystems
- Understand the stress then we can attempt to modify it
1. Natural Climatic Change 1. Natural Climatic Change

- Normally considered to be extreme events
- i.e. abnormal amounts of water (rain, snow) – normally over
the course of years
- Studies done with wind, temperature, etc.
- Cataclysmic events as well
- Normally associate it with the ex. volcanoes, earthquakes,
etc.
- Ex. Yellow stone volcano
Abnormalities and Cataclysmic events
- Large, explosive volcanoes – such as Mount Pinatubo in 1991

– are capable of lofting gases into the stratosphere (the layer
of Earth’s at osphere that sits a o e the troposphere
- Small volcanoes with warm rising air from monsoons give

volcanic fumes a little boost and allow gases to reach the
stratosphere where they last longer
- Gases such as sulfur dioxide reach high in the atmosphere

and spread, combining with water vapor and forming
particles that reflect thus potentially resulting in a cooling
effect
- The material spewed out by Pinatubo reduced global

temperatures by about 0.9 F
- Iceland (Nov 1914)- experiencing its biggest continuous

volcanic eruption in centuries, spewing lawa as high as
statue of liberty
- Experiencing its biggest continuous volcanic eruption in

centuries
- Spewed lava as high as the Statue of Liberty. Flowing fast

enough to cover an area the size of a cocker pitch every 8m

- Decreased by 2015 but earthquakes continue
- Catastrophic Landfall expected in Mexico Friday 2015
2. Harvesting and 2. Harvesting and Associated Technology

Associated Technology - Removal of certain species:
- Desired (cod) or by accident (dolphin)
- Technology can acerbate this (drift gill nets)
- Examples abound:
- Whales (belugas), bison, wolves and sturgeon
- USA regulations for industry fishing boats in the Atlantic are

minimal, boats simply report their catches and federal
officials just take their word for it resulting in the deaths of
300 million pounds of fish
- Problem is that because there is not enough regulation
- When assigning quotas, they look at the maximum they can

take out
- How do you monitor something that is underwater?
- They will now assign a percentage, so if you remove too

much of a stock, next year you get less (this is bad because
people will be unemployed)
- The harvest rates are determined by fisheries and oceans

Canada on the basis of the best available info and knowledge
of the bio/economics
3. Contaminants and Pollution 3. Contaminants and pollution

- link to bioaccumulation
- May be point of area or pollution (different level of location
of the problem)
- Area pollution is easier to control that air pollution
- Example of Beluga Whale – the toxic canaries of the St.
Lawrence
- Company wanted to drill for oil
- Linked to east coast pipe line, so good for company
- About 20 pulp and paper mills discharge directly into the
river
- Have natural toxicity of discarded wood ingredients

- Toxicity of added chemicals (chlorine and PCBs for example)

- Dead Belugas were washing up on the shores and when the
autopsys were done, there were high contaminent of PCBs in
their bodies. Many baby Beluga death ases. PCBs do ’t
dissolve in water, the dissolve in fat and whales are all fat.
PCBs were weakening the adults, so they ould ’t take are
of the babies.
Also, hamper reproduction, cause skin disorders and subtle changes
in physiology.
Also, have tumors, skeletal abnormalities, disease and reproductive
problems.
Population decreased.
Everything in Great Lakes goes through that river, so many more
fishes get contaminated.
We also drink from that water
- Hundreds of other he i als so e do ’t break down)
- Add in oil refineries and human waste (we take drugs and
birth control pills, so the filters cannot properly filter our
urine and it all goes there)
- Add agriculture (fertilizers)
- Pollution acts are not enforced because of the impact on
jobs
- So belugas are in trouble
- Acid rain is the good example
- In 2012 government (Ministry of Environment, actually) got

rid of the s ie tist that ould e a proof that there’s
something wrong, they backed it up by saying budget and
info confidentiality
- Independent scientists from Canadian universities have

suggested that the decision to eliminate that team would
compromise the data collected since now the companies are
the ones who are controlling the data.
4. Land Use Changes 4.Land use changes

- Obvious (process of urbanization)
- Removal of habitat – a problem that some species cannot
handle
- Major cause of species loss – linked to extinction
- By the start of this century, ON was the province with the
greatest amount of land being changed for urban
development
- O tario’s wetlands as example
- Wetlands currently prevent harmful phosphorus from

entering lakes
- Further loss of wetlands will significaly increase sediment
and nitrogen loading, resulting in negative impacts on water
quality and public use of lakes
- Tremendous impact on water quality
- By 7 % of souther ON’s lare i la d etla ds had ee
lost or converted to other land uses (the last 200 years)
- Extensive loss of wetland habitat throughout the Great Lakes
basin has played a significant part in the declining water
quality in all five lakes
5. Introduction of 5.Introduction of exotic species

Exotic Species - One of the best known examples- rabbits into Australia
- Cats and dogs In New Zeland
- Lampreys in Great Lakes
- Goats in Galapagos
- Zebra mussels
- Dutch Elm disease
- Purple loosestrife
Problems of natural and historic - Killer bees, etc.
climate change - Problem may be that there is a lack of natural controls (ex,
spe ies are i trodu ed i the e iro e t ut there’s o
predator to eat them -> no balance)
Galapagos as example
- What has happened over the years is that people have
introduced species (goats and rats). In order to protect the
native species (tortoises) people have been trying to kill the
foreign species
- Plants can also be introduced and compete for nutrition and
territory with native species
- On Galapagos- Lonesome George the last one of the dying
race
- This tortoise ere used as food for fisher a ’s a als
introduced to the island
Isolation of problems:
- Problem in documenting or isolating sources and effects of
individual stress events on the environment
- Assumption that the response to the stress can be spotted as
well
- Again temporal and spatial discontinuities
- It should be easy to spot but it is not – example: climate
change
- The average global temperature – we have warm periods

and periods of extreme cold

- Do we have global warming or not?
- Long-term indeterminate
- Direction for future a question mark
- Did the industrial revolution create the discrepancy that we
now see in climate temperature?
KNOW 3 WAYS 3 basic ways to work with this:
1. Anecdotal records - Anecdotal

- Generally fortuitous (someone writing about an event)
- Descriptions may give different meanings (Star of Bethlehem
probably being a comet, therefore we can look at dates of
this appearance)
- Des riptio s ight e ased o histori al fa t Noah’s Ark –
the great flood might be linked to glacial outwash)
- Can attempt to link writings in different societies
- Problem of accuracy and the bias of the writer (especially if
the description is years after an event – Homer and the story
of Troy through later used to find the site)
2. Surrogate and Inferential - Surrogate and Inferential

- Use of results that can be measured
- Starting at the answer and working backwards
- For example, the measurement of glaciers retreating and
forests moving north to back up global warming
- Old records in soil of forest burning to look at the cycle of
fire
- The glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula are in rapid retreat

- Nearly 90% of the ice bodies streaming down from the
mountains to the ocean are losing mass
- Although higher air temperatures as re a factor the full
picture may go beyond just simple global warming
- This study demonstrates the enormous importance of
gathering long-term data
- Can be quite useful if there are records for a long period

- Need to establish the link between cause and effect (may be
other auses or the atural flu tuatio
- Ancient coral reef – Florida

- Sea level was far higher than today
- If we know what happens with the temperature, we know
how much Florida will go under water

- Scientific testing and rigorous systematic analysis

- Comparatively rare (time and money)
- Perhaps have to damage the system in tests
- Problem with affecting the assimilative capacity
- Association with sampling – difficulties
- When dealing with real ecosystems – subtle indications
(especially with changes occurring) may not show up
- Severe experimentation may follow – done to provide
detectable effects
- This may produce irreversible damage to the system being
studied
- Problem: change needs to be detected
3. Scientific Testing and

Analysis Prediction by a ruler
- If we go back to the 1980s and we take a look at the sea rise
– we can see that there is an increasing trend
- This is the problem – inability to predict the future is what
gives deniers so much ammunition
Major question
- There are lies, damned lies and statistics
- Lying is easier (or misrepresentation) is easier when there
are fewer statistics
- Prior to 2006 – evidence base was the norm for practice in
medicine, nursing, law, management and government policy
making
- Base policy and practice on

- What do we know of the problem at hand
- What works to solve it?
Statistics and Lies
- If the problem is lessening – why spend on it?
- If the solution creates further problems – why spend on it?
Scientific Evidence
- Allows us to measure – progress?
- Allows us to judge if changes are better or worse for society?
Questions - Allows us to judge the effectiveness of the policies
Case in point:
- Crime trend analysis – crime is declining
- Policy – build more prisons
- Evidence – anecdotal of single cases, assumptions and

political belief
Human Influenced Climate Change

- Combination of the warnings and evidences
- Fort Lauderdale – budges being hit with costs in millions,
fixing roads and drains and employing vacuum trucks to suck
saltwater off streets
- Link to increased tidal flooding
- This accelerated rate of sea-level rise has not been seen for
over 2000 years
- According to the IPCC, the planet is likely to reach an

increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees by 2100
- Studies have shown sea-level changes dating back 125,000 to
400,000 years ago, when global mean temperature were 1.5
or 2 degrees Celsius higher than they are today
- In some cases, the global mean sea levels during these eras
peaked at 6-9 meters above present rates
- In Northfolk – municipality has installed huge vertical rulers
so drivers can judge depth floodwaters
Temperature Rising
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration –
temperatures over land and sea have been tracked since
1880
- In 1639 months
- July 2016 was the hottest on record
- Study – PhD student at Harvard
- Looked at results of 4.6 million NYC exams – compared to
the max temperature of the day
- If a hot day – slightly less likelihood of graduating on time
- Similarly, when a school year has a greater number of hot
day – students do worse at their year end exams
- USA – auto factories (most air-conditioned a week of 6 days

above 32 degrees Celsius reduces production by 8%
- 2016 will probably go on record as the hottest year in
recorded history
- Had the hottest January, February and so on

In essay, first talk about theory and then use examples as the proof

GEO 702 LECTURE: 14 Stress and Limits to Growth DATE: November 7th
INTERFERENCE AND STRESS
- So if normal ways of testing do not always apply how can we spot a

system under stress early enough to control damage?
Signs of Difficulties 1. Impaired biological Productivity

- Need to have the average level of production (if it’s sig ifi a tl
away from average and if yes, then for how long)
- What has been seen over as many years as possible
- A variation in this level may indicate a problem (population is dying
off or a population is increasing in expense of another populations)
- Question is what is the critical low point (recovery threshold) in

which a species cannot recover and we cannot bring it back?
- Below critical low point means species are not going to recover
naturally.
- What is causing the swing? Overhunting? Territory destruction?
Causes could include:

- Natural swing in population and system dynamics – or
- Intervention:
- Habitat reduction (removal)
- Too many additives (could even be nutrients)
- Changes in associated species – predators
KNOW - Eutrophication: excessive richness of nutrients in a lake or other
EUTROPHICATION! body of water, frequently due to runoff from the land, which
causes a dense growth of plant life and death of animal life from
lack of oxygen. Ex. farmers put fertilizers, cities dump sewage

2. Reduction in Species Diversity - drop in the number of species:

- We should have a count of populations (species and within species)
- Nice in theory
- If the number of species starts to drop we may not notice it
because we have other species that are taking the original species
function (system works but is more vulnerable)
- Population do vary naturally but if the number of species is

dropping then even though the functions are continuing the
system is probably under stress
- If the number of species removed, the ecosystem is going to
ha ge ut it’s ot go a e re o ed. The major change comes
when the whole level is removed.
- The problem is trying to spot it, so we need data
- Dangerous within a simpler system (arctic) as could quickly lose a
function
- So need to know who eats who, so if some level starts to increase,
means something else decreased
- Ex. Canadian cod thought to be going extinct due to other species,
ot to fishi g, ut o e k o that as ’t the ase
3. Shift to more opportunistic species - Link to urbanization:

- If a species number increases the system is probably undergoing
stress
- Example in urbanization, the proliferation of gulls, raccoons,
hor ets, ertai eeds , o otes
- Ex. opposums now could be found in Toronto because they could
now survive our winters
- Coyotes adapted well to our urban environment
- highly adaptive, flexible, change with the environment species live
in urban environment
- wild turkey adapt to open farmland
- Current statistics indicate that 16x more raccoons or skunks live in
urban areas as compared to the same size rural area (Mississauga)
-
4. Change in succession pattern - Or reversal:

- So we know there is a pattern and we now how long it
approximately takes
- Expect ecosystems to change and in an orderly, predictable pattern
- Reversal or change to the pattern means a problem – plants and
animals are not adapting in expected patterns (change in water,
rainfall, acid rain) – when that starts to happen, adaptation in
behavior or numbers but takes a long period of time
- Ex. Forks of credit used to be an industrial area: lots of power,
ills, rail a s, ut o it’s ot, so the s ste is recovering slowly.
But if it goes a k ard, e k o there’s so ethi g ro g.

5. Reduction in size of the dominant biota

- For example, no big, mature animals or plants
- Individuals cannot mature and reproduction is affected (example of
Chesapeake Bay)
- Indication that we have a problem
- E . if lo sters are s aller i size it ea s that the do ’t ha e
enough time to grow to reproduce.
- Ex. unnatural for wolf to die of old age now, they die on railways
a d high a s, so the do ’t gro to ature
6. Higher rate of disease (susceptibility)

- Disease and pets start to show up in the population
- Fish in Lake Ontario with tumors and cancers
- Resistance may drop because of another stress (indirect) or direct
with chemical poisoning
- Ex. moose population is threatened by the diseases carried by elk.
We have high elk population because we killed off wolves and
bears, so when the moose start to die of disease we go back to see
what caused it and as a solution introduce more wolfs to the
system or protect the bears
Example: Opportunistic Mycosis

- Only causes disease in people with a weakened immune system
- And example is a type of fungus that can cause pneumonia: it lives
in soil rich in nitrogen, especially bird droppings
- It is common in urban areas (cities) because of the pigeons. Not as
common in rural (country) areas
2012
- Lake Ontario (including Niagara and St. Lawrence rivers)
- In the various species of trout and salmon found in Lake Ontario,
dioxins, furans, PCBs, toxaphene can be elevated in some fish
- PCBs are the consumption-limiting contaminants
- Consumption of species such as walleye, pike, bass and perch is
usually restricted because of mercury contamination
- In total, 58.6% of the advice given for sport fish from Lake Ontario
results in some levels of consumption restriction

Alaska
Problems in Alaska:
Alaska example - W. Stevens, New York Times, Oct 98
- Biggest problem: shortage of data
Problem 1: In Nenana there has been a large lottery based on the date the
Tanana River ice breaks up in the spring. In the 81 years four of the earliest
reaks ha e ee i the ’s.
- Hi t: this lotter is ears so ou a get data, ut o it’s
happening earlier
Nenana Ice Classis – Dates of ice break up:
- Seems reasonable
- Start year is a key 1949 a cold year
- Yet later years indicate earlier breakups
- Depends on the year you start counting
- Also should look at the coolest and warmest years
Problem 2: The Columbia glacier has changes in the last few years
- First studied a century ago it was advancing so rapidly that ice blocks
would fall of the nose of the glaciers and crush trees in front of it
- The advance stopped in 1923 and stayed at one point retreating in
summer and moving back in winter
- Generally glaciers move north to south (but also depends on the slope of
the land)
- Cruise ships used to nose close to the edge of the glacier in Prince William
Sound and watch icebergs break off the glacier and float away
- In 1983 it started to retreat.
- But ships now cannot get close

Problem 3: Forests are dying

- Drunken forest is a recent phenomenon. Large areas of forest are
turning grey as they drown. The tree roots are loosened and they
are tilted at odd angles (tree trunks are not straight) – permafrost:
the top layer is starting to melt and the soil is very thin
- One third to half of Alaska’s hite spru e ha e died i the last 5
years. Many drowned but more destroyed by exploding
populations of Spruce bark beetles moving ever north that kill trees
- The beetles are controlled by temperature – so if they are in the
area it means that is getting warmer
- The tops of vintage old growth spruce in a protected area (Bonanza
Creek Experimental Forest) are broken off because the snows are
no longer light and fluffy – they are heavy and wetter in the winter
– it is easier for insect to get in
- Indication that something is going on in the system
Problem 4: The cost of road repairs is increasing

- “tret hes of high a ha e a es i the a d dri i g is
dangerous as the roads have cracked and broken
- Maintenance crews repair and re-repair the same stretches – costs
of maintenance is high
- Problem of permafrost melting
Problem 5: Thermokarsts are appearing in greater numbers

- When permafrost melts there are pockets of solid ice trapped in it.
When this melts the ground collapses and creates holes at the
surface (perhaps 2.5m and up deep)
- Permafrost is moving northward. It has already moved 120km in
some areas. Predictions of 500km eventually
Problem 6: Records
- University of Alaska records show an increase in the average
temperature of Alaska, Siberia and northwestern Canada of 5
degrees F
- 30 years ago the temperature of Fairbanks reached 25C for only
one week in the summer. Now there are about three weeks over
25C
- Winter temperatures in Fairbanks frequently went below minus 40.
In the last 20 years the number of days below minus 40 have
dropped substantially
Minor Swing?
- Atmospheric changes in circulation have occurred bringing warmer
air from the Pacific so this might be a minor change in the weather
- Unfortunately the same changes have occurred in Northern Russia
- Is the Global Warming or not?

Advantages:
Advantages and - Increase in tourism with the longer summers
Disadvantages of - Shipping by sea easier and an open-water sea route to Europe from
warming Alaska could open up (problem of jurisdiction – USA vs. Canada)
- More offshore drilling for oil as sea ice contrasts
- Fisheries could expand with warmer water
Disadvantages:
- Forests are being destroyed. The change period is the problem as
the forests move northward
- Other forests should move north but in Alaska the only
environment is the Gulf of Alaska
- Permafrost is melting
- Glaciars are retreating and agriculture is shifting to GMF
- If this is global warming or a sign of it
- Emissions of heat trapping gases such as carbon dioxide. Created
by the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas)
- Less ice and snow so less reflection back of heat
- The average temperature of the planet surface could rise by 2-6
degrees F (probably 3.5 degrees F is the best estimate)


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- Is population becoming more of a problem?

- First billion population occurs in 1880D

- October 2011 – 7 billion people

- July 1st, 2016 – 7,404,976,783

- The tempo has changed – we have to feed, clothe and employ

Hans Rosling - Good Accelerated growth

Stability of population - 10 billion inevitable?

- Religion and birth rates

find more resources at oneclass.com

- Production is associated with population

This concentration increases the problem because availability resources

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Now – end result

Exponential Growth – Impact on Resources

- Some growth rates will be limited by the ecosystem ability to go

- Population is being squeezed into smaller spaces while the

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GEO 702 LECTURE 04 PROBLEM-SOLVING DATE: Sep.14th and Sep.19th

***5 Approaches (know)***

1. Prediction is a problem: A society does not anticipate the

What was the point of the movie?

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- A society recognizes there is a problem but does not appreciate

3. AWARENESS BUT WILL NOT ADDRESS IT

- A society appreciates that there is a problem (possibly severe) but

4. SOLUTIONS ARE TRIED BUT THEY FAIL

- A society may perceive the problem as a serious threat and tries to

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5. RECOGNITION, ACTION, SUCCESS

- A society recognizes a problem as serious, acts and succeeds

- We seem to be able to change our technology but getting people to

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POSSIBLE PESTICIDE - Hazard

-methyl parathion – use is legally prohibited

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Produce with Highest levels of pesticide residues:

Pesticides are associated with:

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- Another problem is aging

Everything that we do exposes us to hazards

- The better-off among us (nations) – Canadians will have to reduce

COMMENTS – WHY? - Combination of short – and long term exposure

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- - Demographic structure – baby boomers

This is a concern. We have pesticides and a concern about air.

FUTURE POPULATION RICHER – BUT?

- Richer in the sense of material goods

- Do we spend now to prevent?

-We are for instant gratification

- It is in our interest that we start doing something about this

- Mitigation costs – jobs

- Climate destruction costs

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The cost of mitigating climate change?

Do we spend or not? If so How much??

5 Approaches (know)