Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam and the Geopolitics of
China-US Rivalry
April 13, 2023

Recently the Philippines agreed to open four new military bases to the U.S. military.
Two of the bases are in the northern part of the country (about 400 kilometres from
Taiwan) and one in the west (near the Spratly Islands).
At the recent Vietnam-US Political, Security and Defence Dialogue in Washington D.C.,
the US reaffirmed its commitment to continue assisting Vietnam in improving its
maritime capacity, law enforcement and identification of remains of Vietnamese
soldiers through training and equipment transfer.
We request your analysis of the following issues:
Q1. Both the Philippines and Vietnam have contested claims over the South China Sea.
Given the fact that rivalry between China and the U.S. is getting unprecedentedly
bitter, do you think Manila’s decision to allow an expanded U.S. military presence in
the region has any implications for Vietnam? How far do you think Vietnam’s maritime
security cooperation with the U.S. could go in its South China Sea dispute with China?
ANSWER: Vietnam will privately welcome the decision by the Philippines to expand
access to the United States to military bases on its territory. Vietnam will view this as
complicating China’s drive to assert hegemonic control over the South China Sea.
Vietnam will continue to adhere to its four no’s defence policy: “Viet Nam consistently
advocates neither joining any military alliances, siding with one country against
another, giving any other countries permission to set up military bases or use its
territory to carry out military activities against other countries nor using force or
threatening to use force in international relations.”
Vietnam will continue to host annual friendly port visits by the U.S. Navy, including
nuclear powered air craft carriers, as long as U.S.-China tensions are at the moderate
to low level.
Vietnam will continue to cooperate with the United States down the well-trodden
path of maritime security restricted to engagement by the Vietnam Coast Guard.
Vietnam’s 2019 Defence White Book stated, “Vietnam also promotes defence
cooperation with countries to improve its capabilities to protect the country and
address common security challenges. Depending on circumstances and specific
conditions, Viet Nam will consider developing necessary, appropriate defence and
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military relations with other countries on the basis of respecting each other’s
independence, sovereignty, territorial unity and integrity as well as fundamental
principles or international law, cooperation for mutual benefits and common interests
of the region and international community.”
Under the “developing necessary, appropriate defence and military relations with
other countries” caveat, Vietnam has increased its procurement of T-6 jet trainers
from six to twelve, and sent small numbers of pilots for training in the United States.
Vietnam is likely to make selective purchases of U.S. military technology, such as the
ScanEagle UAVs which it has already ordered,
Q2. How do you assess Hanoi’s engagement with China and the U.S. as the rivalry
between the two superpowers is getting unprecedentedly bitter? How much room do
you think Hanoi has to maintain its policy of not taking sides? Recently we’ve seen
active engagement between Vietnamese officials and their counterparts from the U.S.
and China. Xi Jinping hosted Nguyen Phu Trong in November and Biden called Trong
last week. The Chinese and Vietnamese foreign ministers talked over the phone, while
Vietnam’s deputy foreign minister visited Washington for the security dialogue.
ANSWER: Vietnam will continue to pursue its policy of independence, self-reliance and
diversification and multilateralization of external relations. General Secretary Nguyen
Phu Trong’s visit to China to meet with General Secretary Xi Jinping in October-
November 2022 laid the groundwork for the forthcoming exchange of visits with
President Joe Biden.
Vietnam’s approach in not taking sides involves leveraging its bilateral relations with
the major powers, including seventeen strategic partners, to maintain its strategic
autonomy. Vietnam solicits their engagement and support on the understanding that
it will not take sides and will play an independent constructive role in regional
security. In sum, both China and the United States are motivated to constructively
engage with Vietnam to ensure that it remains independent.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam and the Geopolitics of China-US

Rivalry,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, April 13, 2023. All background briefs
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.