BOBCAT (LYNX RUFUS)

MANAGEMENT PLAN IN NEW JERSEY

2022

©Tyler Christensen

Dhruv Patel & Taylor Trapani

Wildlife Ecology & Conservation 11:216:464
Fall 2022
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………………………..................3
Part 1: Introduction……………………………………………………………………….…………………...…..4
1.1 Species Description & Taxonomy…………………………………………………………….………..4
1.2 Life History/Ecology…………………………………………………………………………………...5
1.2a Habitat Requirements……………………………………………………………………………..5
1.2b Reproductive Behavior……………………………………………………………………………6
1.2c Ecological Importance…………………………………………………………………………….6
1.3 Population Status & Distribution……………………………………………………………………….7
1.4 Threats & Reasoning for Management…………………………………………………………………8
Part 2: Current Conservation Efforts…………………………………………………………………………….9
2.1 NJ Regulatory Protection……………………………………………………………………………….9
2.2 Habitat Conservation & Restoration…………………………………………………………………..10
2.3 Public Outreach & Education…………………………………………………………………………11
2.4 Population Viability Analysis…………………………………………………………………………12
Part 3: Conservation Plan………………………………………………………………………………………...14
3.1 Recovery Objective……………………………………………………………………………………14
3.1a Stochastic and Elasticity Analysis…………………………………………………………..15
3.2 Conservation Strategy…………………………………………………………………………………17
3.2a Step 1: Population Survey…………………………………………………………………...17
3.2b Step 2: Connect Habitat Across New Jersey (CHANJ) Project……………………………..18
3.3 Implementation Schedule & Success Criteria…………………………………………………………19
Literature Cited…………………………………………………………………………………………………...21
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
 Figure 1: Picture of Lynx rufus rufus in the snow……….……......…………………………………...........5
 Figure 2: North American range of Bobcats………………………………………………………………..7
 Figure 3: Northern New Jersey roadway map with bobcat range overlay………………............................8
 Figure 4: Bobcat Alley in northern New Jersey…………………………………………………...............11
 Figure 5: 5-year population viability analysis……………………………………………..........................12
 Figure 6: 100-year population viability analysis………………………………………………..………....13
 Figure 7: New Jersey counties for population survey methods to be used…………..................................15
 Table 1: Sensitivity matrix analysis over four age classes…………………...............................................16
 Table 2: Elasticity matrix analysis over four age classes…………………………………….....................17
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 Figure 8: Mean total population with stochasticity and adjusted lambda…………………………………20

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Bobcat (Lynx rufus) and its plight within New Jersey is a tale of tragedy, recovery, and
conservation. A once plentiful population which was officially declared extinct in New Jersey until the
1970s, the Bobcat has since earned its statewide listing as an endangered species yet still faces the
constant anthropogenic pressures which come with modern day urbanization. Habitat fragmentation and
rising cases of roadway collisions along with the increased risk for diseases such as feline distemper has
been shown to be keeping the current populations of Bobcats within the Northernmost region of the
state. These factors alone are major causes for concern when it comes to the spread of cat populations
throughout the rest of the region as Bobcats have specific large territorial requirements. They are
ecologically important as obligate carnivores which are dependent on prey abundance and so fulfill the
niche in environments which cannot sustain that of large predators. It is through this effort they are
therefore able to aid in the regulation of prey which smaller predators cannot. While current trends in
population analyses suggest that Bobcats in New Jersey are stable enough to persist for the next 5 years,
a long-term plan should be enacted to ensure that these populations continue to strengthen and succeed
in coming back to their native habitat. This targeted conservation plan intends to evaluate the long-term
goals aimed at increasing not only Bobcat numbers but also adult survivability through the use of
conventional surveying methods such as radio collaring, camera trapping, and canine detection efforts as
well as through the preservation of land with the Connect Habitat Across New Jersey (CHANJ) Project.
We have conducted population viability analyses for over a 5 year and 100-year period and have created
both sensitivity and elasticity matrices in order to implement an appropriate conservation schedule with
supporting success criteria.
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PART 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Species Description & Taxonomy

The Bobcat, Lynx rufus, is a medium sized mesocarnivore which is a member of the Felidae
family. It is the most widely distributed native wild cat found within North America, found spread
throughout central Mexico, up to southern Canada and within 48 contiguous United States, excluding
Delaware (Kelly et al. 2016). When solely viewing the US scope of Bobcat distribution, habitat type
varies and can range from coniferous and mixed forests in the north, coastal and swamp areas in the
south, and desert scrublands in the southwest. In 2005 there were 13 subspecies of Bobcats speculated to
be present within North America but as of 2017 there are now 2 fully recognized subspecies: Lynx rufus
rufus which occurs East of the Great Plains and Lynx rufus fasciatus which occurs West of the Great
Plains (Kitchner et al. 2017). New Jersey is subsequently home to the subspecies of Lynx rufus rufus.
Both recognized subspecies have historically inhabited their prospective regions since the late
Pleistocene and therefore contain slight differences within their genetic timeline, however it should be
noted that both subspecies do look similar on a morphological scale with the only discrepancy being
found in skull size (Kitchner et al. 2017).
The Bobcat can easily be identified from its striking coat coloration which varies from golden
browns, to reds, to grays. They have dark tabby markings on their forelegs, dark mottled backs, and a
lighter underbelly. Some individuals display ear tufts which are dark brown or black. The tail of the
Bobcat is the most prominent feature that is characterized by a 4 to 7 inch long darkly outlined stumpy
bob which also lends itself to the animal’s namesake (Bobcat Lynx Rufus Status: State: Endangered
federal: Not listed 2017).
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Figure 1: Picture of Lynx rufus rufus in the snow with notable bobbed tail. Source: ©Larry Master

1.2 Life History/Ecology

1.2a Habitat Requirements

In the regions East of the Great Plains, Bobcats inhabit areas primarily made of forested mountain
areas, particularly that which is found in the Northeast of the United States. Optimal locations which
include rocky ledges, rock piles and hollow trees as such which are found in the Northeast are important
to the Bobcat’s denning strategy (Brainerd 1985). Structures like so are important as Bobcats are
extremely agile cats which do not dig, and so these naturally sourced locations provide a safe,
unreachable, and virtually undetectable denning site to raise their young. A key component that Bobcats
consider when choosing a suitable range in which to claim as their own comes down to how secluded
the area is from other Bobcats and prey availability. Bobcats are territorial, solitary animals and need
varying amounts of square mileage of territory to successfully reproduce and thrive. A female Bobcat’s
territory can never overlap and must consist of approximately 5 square miles while males may overlap
territories which can take up to approximately 15 to 30 square miles (Crowe 1975). Communication is
primarily through scent and visual signs (such as scraping and through feces), and rarely utilize
vocalizations unless in a close-range situation. As a non-migratory species, distances a single Bobcat can
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travel over 24 hours can vary from 1.6 miles for an adult female, to 3 miles for adult males (Brainerd
1985).

1.2b Reproductive Behavior

Bobcats are a polygynous species with sexually mature females (around 2 years of age) mating with
sexually mature males (around 1.5 to 2 years of age) primarily during their peak mating season which
spans from February to March (Brainerd 1985). Early spring begins the denning season for female
Bobcats where they become extremely territorial towards members of their species, especially other
females. Males will follow the females in some cases but will limit interactions. Gestation lasts
approximately 60 to 70 days with birth peaks occurring early spring in April to June. Litter sizes can be
anywhere around 2 to 6 cubs with most not making it to adulthood (Brainerd 1985). For those who do
make it, a median life expectancy of 15 years is expected in the wild but is rarely recorded (Kitchner et
al. 2017). Females will care for their young throughout the winter months until the following winter
when cubs reach 9 to 12 months of age and should be able to successfully survive on their mother
(Crowe 1975). At 12 to 18 months old, males will leave their natal home range in search of a new
territory while females will tend to stay close to home for some time (San Diego Zoo Global Library
staff, 2012).

1.2c Ecological Importance

As mentioned earlier, the Bobcat is a mesocarnivore and thus fulfills the niche role of top predator in
areas which lack the resources to sustain large carnivores. On top of this, Bobcats are crepuscular which
means they are most active during twilight or dawn and take full advantage of this with their keen
tracking abilities. As obligate carnivores, their diet consists mainly of squirrels, rabbits, rats, mice,
opossums, raccoons, quail, an assortment of small songbirds, reptiles and even deer (especially fawns).
Having such a high metabolism, this sort of diet benefits not only the individual’s need for constant
protein but it also plays a huge ecological role in keeping populations of species which are otherwise
booming in numbers in check (San Diego Zoo Global Library staff, 2012). By keeping populations of
species which can be otherwise classified as “pests”, Bobcats are able to help control the spread of
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diseases and parasites which may be carried (Crowe 1975). They are also known to consume carrion on
roadways which is the most problematic threat for the species (Kitchner et al. 2017).

1.3 Population Status & Distribution

Public attitude and management techniques have greatly changed regarding the conservation of
Bobcats over the past 100 years. Continuing until the 1970’s, the Bobcat remained an unprotected
species throughout North America with numbers reaching only the 1,000’s in some parts (Marcella
Kelly et al. 2016). Bobcat hunts became more common as settlers arrived in America as a panic
response for their livestock and as the fur trade became a lucrative industry. As these practices became
regulated and even outlawed in some areas, as recent as the late 1990’s shows Bobcat numbers have
been seen to remain stable and, in some cases, have increased in at least 40 states out of the 48 which are
home to Bobcat populations (Marcella Kelly et al. 2016). Five Canadian provinces also report stable
populations with one reporting an increase in numbers and one reporting a large fluctuation seasonally.
Mexico Bobcat populations are not very well recorded and so population sizes are unknown to a certain
degree. Most recently, the total Bobcat population within the United States has been estimated to be
between 2,352,276 individuals to 3,571,681 individuals which indicates an overall increasing recovery
rate for the species as a whole spanning across the North American landscape (Figure 2) (IUCN Red
List 2016). As of 2016 Bobcats are federally listed as a species of least concern but have varying
statewide statuses across the United States (IUCN Red List 2016). This list has not been updated since.
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Figure 2: Current Bobcat distribution across North America. Source: IUCN 2016

1.4 Threats & Reasoning for Management

Currently, the biggest threat which Bobcat populations are facing is the encroachment of humans
into their territories. Specifically, this can be seen taking shape in the form of habitat fragmentation by
cutting directly through pre-established territories along with the expanse of urbanization, agriculture,
and deforestation of areas where the Bobcat relies on for prey and denning sites (Figure 3) (Mato 2020).
As the most densely populated state in the country, New Jersey is consistently undergoing construction
in order to make way for residential, agricultural, and commercial development. Bobcats are wide
ranging animals with large territorial demands and so require large, contiguous patches of suitable
habitat to survive (Beans & Niles 2003). With roads intercepting these territories, motor vehicle
collisions with the cat are becoming all too imminent. Bobcats are not the only species being affected by
the presence of roads and so when prey moves from territory so must the Bobcat go with it. This results
in instances of roadkill of numerous species, which the Bobcat will take as an easy opportunity with
limited fresh game available. Unfortunately, this does put the Bobcat in a precarious spot for a deadly hit
(NJDEP: Fish & wildlife: New Jersey's mammals 2022).
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Figure 3: Bobcat home range and habitat use study from 2002 – 2015 in Northern New Jersey
overlayed across 1,003 mi in relation to roadways. Source: Rita Isabel Matos 2020

There is also the threat of feline distemper which is a deadly disease that is transmitted by
domestic and feral house cats to Bobcats (Beans & Niles 2003). Feral cats number greatly in areas
inhabited by people and within the vicinity of agricultural land. Feline distemper is spread through feces
of infected cats and can persist in the environment for up to six months at a time (Beans & Niles 2003).
Bobcats, who use scent marking as their main form of territorial communication, are especially
susceptible to the disease (Ceretta 2021). In areas of high feral cat density Bobcat populations are seen
to suffer significant mortality loss from the disease.

PART 2: CURRENT CONSERVATION EFFORTS

2.1 New Jersey Regulatory Protection

Until the 1970’s, Bobcats were declared locally extinct in New Jersey with 24 individuals being
relocated to the state from Maine between 1978 and 1982 (NJDEP: Fish & wildlife: New Jersey's
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mammals 2022). More recently, the population of bobcats in the state of New Jersey has appeared to be
bouncing back slightly in the Northern region of the state. The central and southern regions of the state
have not seen such inspiring results as very few observations of bobcats have been recorded in those
regions. The elusiveness of the feline also makes observations of them difficult. While a recent rise in
the population can be observed, this has also led to an increase in bobcat automobile accidents. In 2019,
19 bobcats were recorded to have been killed by an automobile (NJ.gov: Bobcat Fact Sheet 2019). Even
with such setbacks, many regulations have been placed by the state of New Jersey to protect Bobcats.
Bobcats in New Jersey are still classified as an endangered species, this means they are protected by the
New Jersey Endangered and Nongame Species Conservation Act of 1973. The law states that any
species whose prospect of survival currently or in the foreseeable future is in jeopardy is protected by
the state from the taking, possession, transportation, importation, exportation, processing, sale, or offer
of sale. Violation of this law could result in being found guilty of a third-degree crime which can be a 5-
year sentence and a fine ranging from $5,000 to $50,000 depending on the severity of the crime (Animal
law: NJ endangered Chapter 2A 2022).

2.2 Habitat Conservation & Restoration

Since the urbanization of New Jersey, habitats for not only bobcats but for many animals have
shrunk and caused these species to either relocate or risk living in urban areas with humans. Before such
urbanization, bobcats used to roam a vast area of New Jersey spanning from North Jersey to South
Jersey. In current times, this area has shrunk to a small part of northern New Jersey. Conservation to
protect the habitats of Bobcats has been established and a place nicknamed “Bobcat Alley” was made to
give bobcats a haven in North Jersey. Bobcat Alley is a forested area that neighbors the Delaware Water
Gap and crosses into Pennsylvania. The whole area is about 1,300 acres and encapsulates an area where
most of the bobcat sightings have been recorded making it the perfect area for a bobcat preserve. The
area also links to almost 40,000 acres of preserved land for wildlife that covers land in New Jersey,
Pennsylvania, and New York (New Jersey Oak Leaf: Building Bobcat Alley 2016).
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Figure 4: Location and area covered by Bobcat Alley in Northern New Jersey. The area is the same
place where most of the bobcat sightings were recorded previously. Source: The Nature Conservancy

2.3 Public Outreach & Education

Conservation of bobcats is improved vastly with education. Educating and informing the general
public about the situation with bobcats helps make the public more conscious of their actions and allows
for them to take proper action to help conserve bobcats in their local environment. Communities around
the US have begun giving lessons and information lectures to local citizens on Bobcats. These lectures
inform the public about the habits of bobcats, location of bobcats, and how to spot bobcats. These
lectures are helpful because they can help record sightings of bobcats, so that accurate recordings of
bobcat location can be kept and used as data. These lectures also inform people on the severity of the
bobcat situation and how to help protect bobcats from further decimation. This will help reduce the
amount of bobcat related automobile accidents that happen because people will be more aware of areas
with bobcat sightings and drive with more care. These lectures are beneficial to the bobcat population
and allow for further steps in the conservation of bobcats to be taken.
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2.4 Population Viability Analysis

To begin conservation of bobcats, ecologists must make many graphs and models to, not only predict the
future of a population, but also to come up with effective and proper methods of conservation that would
benefit the population of bobcats in an area. One of these models is a population viability model used by
ecologists all around the world to predict the future feasibility of a population’s survival based on the
persistency of current conditions that a certain population faces. A population viability analysis also can
inform ecologists of the smallest population size that is possible for a population to survive for a long
period of time into the future. Using bobcat sightings data that was recorded in New Jersey over the span
of 9 years from 2007 to 2016, the population of bobcats was determined in each year and used to
calculate the population viability analysis in this model.

Figure 5: Population Viability Analysis for a period of 5 years after 2016 using population data from
2007 to 2016.

Taking the population size from 2007 to 2016 for Bobcats in New Jersey, we were able to find the
proportional change in population from one year to the next. This allowed us to calculate the geometric
mean which was 1.009669205 and the standard deviation which was 0.339515995. With these values,
we made a Population Viability Analysis for the next 5 years to find the probability of extinction in the
population in the next 5 years. 10 trials were done, and persistence was calculated from these trials. The
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probability of extinction in the population over the next 10 years was 0 meaning that the population
would 100%, according to the analysis, survive the next 5 years, if conditions were the same for the next
5 years. The same model was run again, this time predicting the next 100 years.

Figure 6: Population Viability Analysis for a period of 100 years after 2016 using population data from
2007 to 2016.

Using the same starting population of 276 individuals along with the same geometric mean of
1.00966921 and standard deviation rate of 0.339516, 100 trials were conducted to predict the bobcat
population viability over the next 100 years into the future in New Jersey. Under stochastic conditions,
and various iterations, the populations seem to remain stagnant for the first 22 years. After this time
mark however, the randomly generated projected populations per trial fluctuate extremely. A few
populations seem to, at points, overshoot greatly some sort of carrying capacity as there is a sharp
decline in the population directly after these spikes representing some drastic die-offs. A trendline based
on each trial's geomean was incorporated into the projections and seems to project a slight exponential
decline. The data shows a persistence rate of 38% and a 62% extinction rate. Iterations conducted
hereafter stayed within the same ranges (±6) of the persistence and extinction rates showing that
conservational efforts are needed in place for New Jersey bobcat populations if conditions which are
applied now are to be continued over the next 100 years.
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PART 3: CONSERVATION PLAN

3.1 Recovery Objective

Since Bobcat’s are listed as endangered within the state of New Jersey, the cause for Bobcat
conservation awareness in regard to illegally trapping or hurting the animal with intent are heavily
enforced. This then sheds light on the most important goal to address for a successful recovery for New
Jersey’s Bobcat population is through the preservation of open spaces with the addition of uninterrupted
connecting corridors. By focusing on maintaining the natural landscape away from agricultural hotspots
and roadways, we ultimately aim to avoid the impact of vehicular deaths along with limiting the range of
feline distemper within current Bobcat populations. Historically, Bobcats were once found throughout
the entirety of New Jersey, while today, the area of Bobcat interest seems to take place in Northern New
Jersey, primarily along the connecting Pennsylvania and New York borders (Figure 6). Since human
congestion has made the hope for the Bobcat’s full return extremely difficult, for now we will explore
land preservation within New Jersey as a whole but with the use of research that has been conducted in
the Northern parts of the state. It should also be kept in mind that Bobcats, along with many other cat
species, occur at low densities among large land area requirements (Beans & Niles 2003). This
Monitoring technique can be seen as another step within our conservation strategy to ensure a healthy
and stable population can thrive in the state for years to come. By using population data collected by the
New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) we were able to run models which show
that the current Bobcat population in New Jersey is stable, but not necessarily healthy. This can be
further explored in our PVA model where our simulated population, which used current population
estimates, was able to persist stably over a 5-year period, but long term was headed for extinction in a
100-year timespan with an extinction probability falling between a 60-80% interval. Since long term
goals are to be enacted by strengthening the Bobcat population growth rate, this extinction rate within
100 years is indicative of an unhealthy population. Using this information, our long-term goal is to
thereby decrease this extinction probability by adjusting the adult age class vital rate and by increasing
our asymptotic rate of growth in adults by 1% to adopt a new target mean lambda for our overall
population viability analysis.
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Figure 7: Areas highlighted in green (Sussex, Warren, Passaic, Bergen, Morris, Essex, Hudson, and
Union counties) represent primary locations for conducting population surveys of Bobcats within New
Jersey. Source: United Nations Northern New Jersey Chapter 2022

3.1a Stochastic and Elasticity Analysis

A stochastic matrix model was compiled to better understand what stage within the Bobcat’s life
cycle. Typically, Bobcats are structured into 4 primary stages: cubs (age 0 to 1 year), yearlings (age 1 to
2 years), juveniles (age 2 to 4 years), and adults (>4 years of age) (Crowe 1976). Broken down, the
sensitivity matrix allowed us to visualize how much the growth of the bobcat population would be
affected by changes in fertility and probability of survival. A change in the fertility of yearlings,
juveniles, and adults would affect the lambda of population growth by a factor of 0.1051, 0.0608, and
0.0940 respectively. A change in the probability of cubs becoming yearlings would affect the lambda of
population growth by a factor of 0.3545. Change in the probability of yearlings staying yearling and
yearlings becoming juveniles would affect the lambda of population growth by a factor of 0.1930 and
0.3272 respectively. A change in the probability of juveniles staying juveniles and juveniles becoming
adults would affect the lambda of population growth by a factor of 0.1893 and 0.2746 respectively and a
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change in the probability of adults staying adults would affect the lambda of population growth by a
factor 0.4247.
The elasticity matrix then allowed us to visualize how much a proportional change in vital rates
affects the population growth. The elasticity value of a 1% change in the fertility of yearlings, juveniles,
and adults would affect the lambda of population growth by 0.03246331%, 0.04619849%, and
0.11435999% respectively. The elasticity value of a 1% change in the probability of cubs becoming
yearlings would affect the lambda of population growth by 0.193021797%. The elasticity value of a 1%
change in the probability of yearlings becoming juveniles would affect the lambda of population growth
by 0.16055848%. The elasticity value of a 1% change in the probability of juveniles staying juveniles
and juveniles becoming adults would affect the lambda of population growth by 0.02872101% and
0.11435999% respectively. The elasticity value of a 1% change in the probability of adults staying
adults would affect the lambda of population growth by 0.3103692%.
With all of the data compiled, the vital rates that are most sensitive to change are the probability
of adults staying adults, the probability of yearlings becoming juveniles, and the probability of cubs
becoming yearlings with the greatest elasticity changes being the probability of adults staying adults.
Therefore, we found that, due to its sensitivity, it would make the most sense to concentrate our focus on
management plans geared toward adult Bobcats.

Table 1 - Sensitivity matrix which was conducted in order to show the importance of survivorship
amongst the four main age classes of Bobcats.
Sensitivity matrix
F(c) F(y) F(j) F(a)
Cubs 0.1930 0.1051 0.0608 0.0940
Yearlings 0.3545 0.1930 0.1117 0.1727
Juveniles 0.6008 0.3272 0.1893 0.2927
Adults 0.8717 0.4747 0.2746 0.4247
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Table 2 - The elasticity matrix results further prove the need for conservational management within the
adult age class.
Elasticity matrix
F(c) F(y) F(j) F(a)
0.03246331 0.04619849
Cubs 0 0.11435999
3 5
0.19302179
Yearlings 0 0 0
7
0.16055848
Juveniles 0 0.02872101 0
4
0.31031692
Adults 0 0 0.11435999
1

3.2 Conservation Strategy

3.2a Step 1: Population Survey

In order to assess Bobcat fluctuations, a yearly population survey study should be conducted
starting January throughout March as this incorporates the Bobcat’s peak mating season and therefore, is
a time that sees most Bobcat activity. Historically, Bobcat hunts and fur traps were conducted from
December to February in the state, which indicates when the height of Bobcat numbers should be visible
(Brainerd 1985). Due to the species’ elusiveness, a combination of surveying techniques would need to
be deployed. Our idea for actually obtaining population statistics follows the current techniques outlined
within the New Jersey Endangered and Non-Game Species Program (NJDEP: Fish & wildlife: New
Jersey's mammals 2022).
The first technique which has been used since the 1990’s is via radio telemetry and radio
collaring of cats (Fowles 2022). Non-lethal traps can be set between dawn and dusk, concentrating on
previously known areas where Bobcats have been spotted. When a Bobcat is trapped, it is anesthetized
and subsequently weighed, measured, fitted with an ear tag as well as a 24-month battery satellite radio
collar. Collaring allows for an individual to be tracked as long as the signal remains active during the
monitoring period which gives a robust data set that includes definitive home range sizes, possible
denning sites, current habitat use and interactions between other cats. From this information, we can
determine ranging patterns, estimate population sizes and, more importantly, find frequently used
corridors. During the period of anesthetization, a blood sample as well as physical test for feline
distemper (collection of stool samples) should also be done for the purpose of examining the spread of
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the disease and for genetic markers for individuals. It is important to review genetic markers within the
current Bobcat population as New Jersey’s population is primarily descended from the 24 individuals
which were relocated from Maine (NJDEP: Fish & wildlife: New Jersey's mammals 2022). Enough time
has passed since the relocation, but it is still imperative to calculate an area’s genetic diversity as this
would mean cats have been able to cross state lines within recent years. If they are crossing state lines,
ear tags will become even more important in identifying a Bobcat, whether it be alive or deceased,
wherever it travels.
A non-invasive technique which could be utilized, and one which has been increasing in
popularity within the state over the past couple of years, is via dog tracking. This method of surveillance
is broader and is typically used to estimate the overall health of the population (NJDEP: Fish &
wildlife: New Jersey's mammals 2022). A professionally trained detection dog can be brought to active
Bobcat locations (or historically active locations) to detect Bobcat scat. The scat can be collected, and
DNA can be analyzed in order to gain more information about that individual who left it there. This
method has seen great success through the program, Working Dogs for Conservation as well through the
NJDEP who had one dog which was able to detect over 530 Bobcat scat samples representing over 170
individuals (Fowles 2022).
A final non-invasive technique to use is through the deployment of camera traps. Again, traps
will be installed within areas of previously known Bobcat sightings. A suitable place for these cameras
would be around areas of rocky outcrops as there will be plenty of fit locations where the devices can be
attached to. Bobcats also typically use these unstable landscapes to relax under, scent marking either
with urine or feces for territorial use and to den within (Brainerd 1985). Cameras can be employed year-
round, through a multitude of weathering conditions, and are concealed enough as to not attract Bobcat
attention directly. If denning mothers are nearby during the deployment time, this can help not only with
adult population estimates but also with cubs.

3.2b Step 2: Connecting Habitat Across New Jersey (CHANJ) Project

Since habitat conservation and restoration are the most important actions we need to take in
order to make our species conservation plan successful, it would stand to reason that we should develop
a project through the New Jersey Fish and Wildlife service’s Connecting Habitat Across New Jersey
(CHANJ). This project’s sole mission is to prioritize land protection, educate about habitat restoration
19

and management, and to guide the mitigation of road barrier effects on wildlife and their habitats
(NJDEP: Fish & wildlife: Connecting habitat across New Jersey 2022). As mentioned previously,
Bobcat Alley has been a highlight project through The Nature Conservancy in part with CHANJ, and
one which we will follow suit in. The goal here is to use the mapping software, which is available to
anyone off the CHANJ homepage, and overlay this with current population survey estimates. From here
we can assess core areas of land which Bobcats are currently using and compare that with areas which
could serve as new potential Bobcat territory. Along with core zone examination, we can also visualize
popular corridors.
Once high priority properties can be established, we can work with local landowners to protect
and connect these areas of open space by conservation efforts enacted through CHANJ as well as
through the New Jersey Conservation Foundation. It is important to gauge proximity to developed land
such as agricultural and roadways with that of prospective cores and corridors. If there are roadways
intersecting areas of interest, it might be feasible to erect signage which warns of wildlife crossing, or
through a more expensive approach of building wildlife accessible tunnels which can cross underneath
the roadway. Ensuring access to critical habitat is imperative to the Bobcat’s comeback.

3.3 Implementation Schedule & Success Criteria

Since it was found that the most sensitive life stage within the Bobcat’s vital rate data was within
the survivability of adults, we therefore must consider the importance of focusing on decreasing the
current extinction probability with long term conservational goals rather than increasing population size.
Previously, our population viability analysis showed an increased extinction rate which ranged between
60 - 70% over a 100-year period. Keeping the most recent population statistic as our starting point since
we have no specific target population in mind, we were able to adjust the r-value within our adult
survivability by an increment of 1% in order to achieve an increased mean lambda of 1.157368. A new
trial was then conducted using these adjustments to find that this alone increased the Bobcat’s
probability of extinction to now fall between 5 – 10%. Our mean population with added stochasticity
was also retried to meet these new estimates and to visually show a projected growth in population, not
to necessarily quantitate an intended population size. It should be noted however that the mean total
population was ran using a population of only sexually mature adults (Figure 8). These projections can
only be possible with the proper management techniques and a proper schedule.
20

The first step we would like to undertake in this schedule is through a yearly population survey
in northern New Jersey. This was found to be crucial in approximating how many cats are currently
residing within the state. By using the combined efforts of radio collaring methods along with camera
traps and dog tracking techniques, we hope to come up with more than just numbers but also in on
important Bobcat territories, genetic variability, age variability and a broad health assessment. Once
populations can be projected, we can use software such as the one available through CHANJ’s website
to overlay territories with maps of already established corridors and habitat cores. New locations for
preserves, corridors or the conservation of land can be weighed. It is then from here we can make state
level decisions, primarily through the New Jersey Conservation Foundation, by working with New
Jersey land owners and then decide the best course of action to take, whether it be officially applying for
the protection of an allotment of land specifically for wildlife use, or through the installation of proper
signage or accessible tunnels which can cross under roadways to largely prevent the number of motor
vehicle, Bobcat collisions which are taking place. Regardless, we will strive for educational emphasis
along with public outreach to be placed on the Bobcat’s return to New Jersey no matter the direction.

Mean total population with adjusted mean

lambda and stochastic variation
1400
1200
1000
Population

800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Time

Figure 8: Sexually mature Bobcat population projection with added stochasticity using a 1% increase
in the asymptotic rate of growth in adults.
21

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