CHAPTER

IQ

ao

'°

- ~heory of Probability
I MEANING AND DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY
Toe term probability refers to 'an event' the happening and non- happening of which is uncertain,
or contingent. Literally, it means a chance, a possibility, a likelihood, or an odd. In usage, it is
expressed in a statement as follows :
(i) Possibly it will rain today.
(ii) There is a chance of your getting a.first class.
(iii) This year's profit is likely to exceed the profits of all the preceding years.
(iv) The odds are 6: 5 in favour of his success.
Mathematically it is a number which is expressed either in the form of a fraction, a percentage. or
a decimal. When the happening of the event is predicted to be certain, the value of the probabilit) :5
taken ~ be unity, i.e., I, and when its happening is predicted to be impossible. the value of the
proba?ility is taken as O (zero). Thus, the value of a probability ranges from O to 1 and it is ne, er
llegative.
....~:• the term _probability may be defined "as a quantitative value of a ~hance that an
lk.Jy", take place m the face of favourable, and nnfavourable ways both of which are equnn,

· may be represented thus :

Symbolicall Y, it

m
P (E) = - -
m + 11
Where,
P (E) = the probability of happening of an e vent E.
m = the number of favourable ways in which an l"\ 'l' t\l E c:an take pln\.'l'.
itnd
n = The number of unfavourable ways in whid1 an 1..' \' l'tlt t·amw t tah' pla1..'l".
 THEORY OF PROBABtllly

~
~ · ll,.
•nt can be represented thus :
of an eve
Further. the probabilit) of not happcn11 o -
JI
q (E) = Ill+;,
. of an event E.
·1· Of not happening .
h , ., l (F) represents probab1 ity . and that of not-happening would amount
\\ t: t L • t b bility of happerung
It must be note d tha s . t U m of the pro _a
to unit~. /.t.. I. thus symbolically p + q - 1.

Example 1. . b bility of its falling with the number 6 up .

.\n unbiased die is thrown. Fmd the pro a

SOLUTION Th mber of favourable ways of getting a 6 up

, d 1 2 3 4 5 and 6. e nu b f .
A die has six sides numbere , , , ' ' 0
. a 6 up is 5. The total num er o ways m
is 1, and the number of unfavourable ways of not oettmg

which the die may fall is 6. b bility of happening of the event, i.e., getting 6
Thus, here, m = 1, n = 5, m + n = 6 and the pro a
upward is given by
m 1 1
p(6) = m + n = 1 + 5 = 6
And the probability of not happening of the event, i.e., not getting _6 is given by
n 5 5
q(6) =- =- =-
m+n 1+5 6

or q (6) =l -p(6) = 1 - 1 = 5 6 6 [·:p+q=l ]

Note: A die is taken to be unbiased, if it is smooth in all its sides, and all its sides have the equal
chance of falling upward.

Concept of Certain Terms related to Probability

Computation of correct value of probability depends greatly upon a clear understanding of certain
terms connected with the theory of probability. Some of them are explained here as under :
(a) Experiment. It is an operation which produces some result or outcome. Tossing a (l1in.
rolling a die, drawing a card from a pack of playing cards, drawing a ball from a bag of different bail~:
observing the defective items produced by a machine, and recording the number of customers nsinn:-
a shop are the examples of an experiment.
(b)_ Space. It is a set of all possible results, or outcomes of an experiment. It is represl.'n~~-l
symbohcall_y by S = { } · Thus, if two coins are tossed, the various possible outcomes are two head:-H
HhH, two tails -TT, fir~t one head and second one tail-HT first one tail and second one head-T
T e set of all these possible outc · ' h ,
· omes constitutes a sample space which is represented as t us.
S = {HH, TT, HT, TH right}
It is to be noted that a sample s , . . .
. · pace is also known as an exhaustive set of the events.
(c) Sample Pomt. Each one f . ted as on
element of a sample spa . ,
ce 1s ca
° the possible
11ed a sample . results of an experiment
.
represen
b ,e HH.
rM' }-If
•'·
and TH are the different sa 1 . 0
P mt. Thus, in the example g,ven a O'\ •
mp e pomts belonging to the sample space-S.
 __ L
or: ppO BA BIL ITY W QJ
,-O "'( ..
_Event. An ev en t is a cas e of int ere st wh ich ha s the ca b~ ty of ha ppeni ng , or tak ing
set of a sam ple spa c f pa
(dJ marked ext en t. It a sub
e~ment ':h ich is r~presented by
1s

~ to -=~het. Thus. in the ab o, e examp

~ alp.,....... - ted as fol low s:
le. if the cas e
o
f e
an
?r an ex~
mterest is both corns fall alike'. the
event

_ _
.,iJJ be represen , alik e}
E = {H H, TI

Type$ of Event :
the the ory of pro bab ilit y ma y be any of the fol1owing types
An event con nec ted with ple event,
ssi ble e, ent . (3) Ra ndo m eve nt. (4) Elementary event, (5) Sim
<J J Sure eve nt, (2} Im po 1 Dependen t event, (9) Mu
tually exclusive event,
7 o<l e_m e, ent . (8
,6, Compoun? event, < ) lnd epe
mp lementary event.
(JO) Overlapping eve nt ( l l)
F.qually lik ely event. and ( 12) Co
explained here as un der :
Each of the above type~ of e,enLs i, is
i~ ~ur e to tak e pla ce wh en a random experiment is per for med
(l) Sure E, ent. A~ C\' ent wh ich
called a sure, or a cert.am event. lor me d is
eve nt h1c h can nev er take place when an experiment is per
(2) Imposs ibl e E\;enl. An
Y.

called an impossible event. t is called a

An e\'e nt. the occ urr enc e of which is uncertain , or contingen
(3) Ra ndom Eie nt.
random or a contingent event. resents all possible outcomes of
a
nt of a sam ple spa ce wh ich rep
(4) Ele me nta ry £1-ent. An ele me us eve ry sample point is an elementary eve
nt.
ele me nta ry eve nt. Th
random experimem is cal led an nsi de rat ion
gle ev en t the pro bab ilit y of occ urr enc e of wh ich is un de r co s
(5) Simple £ 1:enl. A sin ented as P(A) where 'A' represent
bab ilit y of such an eve nt is rep res
Is called a .simple e, en t. The pro
an event. of joi nt
o, or mo re eve nts wh ich oc cu r joi ntl y, an d the pro ba bil ity
(6) Co mp ou nd £, enr s. Tw com po un d events. Th e probabilit
y of suc h
de r con sid era tio n are cal led
occurrence of wh ich i'i un
pou nd eve nts ma y be rep res ent ed in any of the folJowing forms:
com
). or P(A ) . P(B )
P (A & BJ. or P (A n B), or P (A B
ent events .
Here, A and B represent two differ up on the
An el·e nt the oc cu rre nc e of wh ich do es no t de pe nd
{7) Ind epe nde nt £ ven t. of tossing a coi n,
t is cal led an ind ep en de nt event. Thus, the results
OCcurrence of an,· oth er ev en
rep lac em ent of the bal l drawn earlier are exa mp les of
h tim e aft er
~Uing a die , or d;a wi ng a ball eac ility of the sub seq uen t events are no t affected by the
the pro bab
mdependent events. In suc h cases pro bab ilit y of get tin~ a 5 _up~ard in the 3rd tria
l of
nts . Th us the
OCc~nce of their pre ced ing eve it wa s in the 1st and 2nd tnals. S1m.Ilarly , the pro
bability of
sam e 1/6 as
rolling a die will remain the e _!_, i.e.,
k of 52 pla yin g car ds in the 2nd drawal will remain the sam 4
draWing~ spade card from a pac
.
dra wn m the first dra w is replaced before the
( 13sJ>ades)
~ as it was in the firs
t draw, pro vid ed the car d

8Ccond draw is made.

events are independent events.
It is to be noted that all the initial
by: Dependent Event. A sub seq
cu rre nc e
ue
of
nt eve
its
nt,
pre
the
ced
pro
ing
bab
eve
ilit y, or oc cu rre nc e of which is aff ect
nt, or eve nts is cal led a dep end
1'bus Probability, or ocdrawn consecutively without replacement from a pack of 52 playing cards,
ed
ent eve nt.

' When the cards are

...-------- (12) , w,JJl 'Jc HI, the fm~t draw it
TH!ORYO,~

lr
~
r.n,1\
. I . 2nd draw will ht• ft,,
• , , sirndl' 111 t H t., J Wa\ 1

of drnWlllt"1 ,1 , 11
the prohahi'l'ty
1 .. ,,s bt;l'll al fl;, 1ed by the draw of il f-:f)'1dc card in the f ~
. or ti It• •sl'ron<
. ti • 11rohnhihty •
1<1,.,w 11 ,. h L L f
, • • id draw 11terchy d1;crc;a1-; ing ot,1 t,1c av,,urahle
lf'tdr
. ~,
Hc1 e. 11..: •, , ·ed hd ore the st;cOI nurn~
which was not I l P1,\l l Ii ·r of ·111 the c;1rds hy one. ,,
\ 11
spadl' car( s. aml tht: tota lllll. .t'.t: I event '
can he a dependent event.
. l .
lt ,s to 1L 1\Otcc.l thal no
. int, ttl , 'J'wo or more events arc taken as mutually exclusivt It
E
(9) M11t11a 1/Y ·x ··clu\·tve L
•ven
., 1,
\ . •nts ,the happening of another at thc same time. Thut1 w·, i Ut
happenmg . of one) excludes·hordprevccome . up or a tail can come up, but both cannot come •up JU,4,1fr~,
- of ,l, cot·n, either 11
toss mg. , . . a ea . h caJening of such ' events is ex pressed as P(A U BJ, or P (A or BJ . tr: ,
1 apJ
. L dB 1ityt .o mutually
~-une time. The probab1 . - . diagram
exclusive events. The fo]lowmg . . . the naturf'
exh1b1t') , ,
where, A an are w0 , r,,
two mutually exclusive eve_n_t_s_:-----r:::!'r,,..,~~-r-;?--i::77"'7':n
/1/ i
/ , ... ·... . .....
f/
f,'
I

(10) Overlapping events. Two, or more events that can take place together are calltd
overlapping, or not-mutually exclusive events. The nature of such events can be exhibite::
diagrammatically as under :
///,<://,
, // .// /. / ,,,_/ '/,/,:-
/ f"
j' / /,,
/
_, / ' , , , , , · / //
/ "
1
;
/j
1/ / I'/
A AB B
,

/. "'/1/:'"
/ ,1
/~~/ /

//
/ / / · ;/.
///. ',1/ //"
/
// ' //",
/1/·' 1//' / //
.;
I
,'/2
,
, _,
I
/.
/
.-/
I; • /
1/ /,I/
,._.1/' . /
/
I I/
/

The probability of happenmg

· of sueh events is
. represented by p (A u B)
has (ll) Equally
the equal LikelyofEvents
chance h . T ~o, or more events are said to be equally - likely, if each of theIIl
nd
other. Thus in tossing of apperung, a none of them is expected to occur more often lhaD die
are equally likely events,~ ~~t'
~r rolling a_ di~, all the outcomes, viz., H and T, or 1, 2, 3. 4. 5 and r
(12) Compl com, or the die is an unbiased one
ementary Ev t T ·
ens. wo events are ·d
sa1 to b e complementary to each other. if th<) ~;"'
mutually ex l ·
(2, 4 or 6) :il~s1ve, and exhaustive as well Thu
be a complementary · s, when a die 1s rolled the outcome of an e\'en nurnb-:
n ~~~~ot '
m RULES Of PROBABllllY u come of an odd number(!, 3. or 5).

/ There are two 1·

'Th mportant
eorems of Probabi lit ' T ru l es for computation o ...
(1) Additi , Y· hey are: f probabibties which are otherwise known a-' (he
on fheorcrn ( R
(2) Multiplication Th or ule of Summatio )
{) eorem (or R n
/ 1 Addition Theorem (or Rut ule of Multiplication)
According to this rule e of Summation)
out the probability of thei/J· 01nt
t~e probabilities ~ ~
occu rrence. of two ' or more related events will be summed up co prw
 y Of pROBABILITY
ftteofl __L
'1"h. Addition theorem or rule of sum.mat'
,1s . applied
ton 1s t0 lh e problem ~
Of
11
~bef'C• s compound events
the related events are dependent of each other, and
(a)
(b) the related events are mutually exclusive.
,n,e
11j
rule of summation • again
•
.
comprises of two subru1es, vzz.,
(i) Rule of pure add1t10n
(ii) Rule of both additions and subtraction.
,~ule of Pure addition. According to this rule the probabilit' Of ll
v{II ••
added iogether to compute the probability of their joint 0 ies a the related events are
·"" related events are mutually exclusive of each othe (~currehnce. This rule is applied only, where all
'"" · · r 1.e., w en one takes place the 0 th )
and there is no mtersectlon (one's happening with the happerung , any two
. Of another) between er can not ,
or more
relatedevents. '
In such a case, the probability of the compound events is computed as under :
P (A or B) = P (A) + p (B)
or P (A u B) = P (A) +P (B)
And P (Au B u C) = P (A) +P (B) +P (C)
or P (A or B or C) = P (A) +P (B) +P (C)
4} Rules of]?._qJ]l.Addition and SubsJr(lction. According to this rule, the probabilities of the related
events of exclusive nature are added, and that of the inclusive nature are deducted to compute the
probability of their joint operation.
This rule is applied to compound events where some of the related events are mutually exclusive,
and some others are inclusive, i.e., they intersect with each other. For example, two works of a person
say doing Ph. D. and writing a book may cause three related events, viz., doing Ph. D. alone (A) ;
writing a book alone (B), and doing a Ph. D. as well as writing a book (C). In this example, the first
two events, viz., A and B are exclusive, but the third one (C) is inclusive in nature. In such a case, the
probability of the compound events are calculated as under :
~(A or B) = P(A) + P {B)-P (A and B)
or p (A u B) = p (A) +P {B) - P (An B)
In the case of three ev~nts the formula is modified as under :
P(A or B or C) = P (A) +P (B) +P (C) -P (A n B)
,,_ - - - -(P(A n C) -P(B n C) + P(A n B n C)

lllustr8.!ion
.J(two 1.· fl' fi d th b b'lity of getting (i) two heads, and (ii) at least one head.
coms are 1pped, m e pro a 1

. . . . SOLUTION
When two coins are thrown following are the possible events: HH, TI, HT and TH.
(i) The probability of getting two heads is given by
No. of favourable wa~ == .!. == 0.25
p (lffi) = No. of total ways 4
(ii) Probability of getting at least one head is given by
P(HH or HT or TH) = p(HH) + p(HT) + p(TH)
 • • ation Theorem (or Rule of Multiplication)
) N111lt1p1IC . . . . ,
12 Accord'ng 1
to this rule, the probab1hnes
. • f . . . t\\ o, or more related e\ ems ,ar~1:: mu It·1p11e
oJ • h each
- d wit
out the net probab1hty o thelf JOmt occurrence.
otherto titnd . . . .
This rule of multiphcauon 1s apphed to the problems of compound e\ents \i.here:
(a) the related events are independent of each other, and
(b) the related events are not mutually exclusive.
In such cases the net probabilit} of the several related events say A, B and C is calculated as
under:
P (AB) = P (A) xP (B)
And P (ABC) = P (A) xP (B) xP (C)

Illustration 7.
There are 6 black and 10 white balls in a box. If three balls are drawn one after another at random
without replacement, find the probability that all the three were white.

SOLUTION
The probability of getting a white ball in the first drawn is given by
•
10 10 5 '
P(A) = --=-=- or0.625
10+6 16 8
The probability of getting a white ball in the second draw given that the first one was white is
given by

P (B/A) = _ 9 _ =~=I or 0.60

9 + 6 15 5
The probability of getting a white ball in the third draw given that both the first and the second
ones were white is given by
p (~) _ 8 _ 8 _ 4
AB - 8+6 -- 14 - 7
AU the above three events not being mutually exclusive of each other, the probabihtY of the:r
compound event is given by

p (ABC) = P (A) x P ( !) x P ( ~ )
5 3 4 3
= -x-x- =- or 0.214
8 5 7 14