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RECESSION

Before, understanding Recession, we need to understand the market economy;


A] TWO STAGES OF MARKET ECONOMY B] TWO FACTORS OF MARKET; - DEMAND & SUPPLY

A] TWO STAGES OF MARKET ECONOMY


A1] Growing Market Economy A2] Declining Market Economy

Growing Market Economy

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Declining Market Economy

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TWO FACTORS OF MARKET; - DEMAND & SUPPLY


Producer wants his demand always to be high Consumer wants his buying cost always to be low

Actually, Demand is the price at which consumer is ready to buy and producer is ready to sell; Usually, we think; Demand = Quantity But, here Demand = Price; This is because, Price decides the Quantity of Sales; Competitive Price = More Demand; In competitive Price = Less Demand;

Producer Price Consumer Price

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What is recession?
Recession
Recession is the economy shrinking for two consecutive quarters (=6 months) with a decrease in the GDP (=Gross Domestic Product) GDP = Value of all the reported goods and services produced by the people operating in the country GDP = MONEY VALUE OF {C + I + G + (X M)} C = Consumables, I = Gross Investments, G = Government Spending, X = Exports, M = Imports GDP is a good indicator of economy; other indicators could be; -Unemployment Rate -Consumption Rate -Actual Personal Income -Etc.. If GDP is growing, then market is growing due to increased demand;

Note: If the recession continues for next quarter, (>6 months) then we go through DEPRESSION Economy;

Why Recession happens?


1] OVER PRODUCTION 2] LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL

OVER PRODUCTION

PSEUDO DEMAND
ACTUAL NEED WAS NOT THERE; WRONG PROJECTIONS COMPANIES PRODUCED MORE

A situation in which the supply exceeds the nations ability to consume what has been produced;
Supply > Demand

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LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL

Word of mouth
Word of mouth

Assignable Cause

Low Confidence Level of Millions of consumers and producers after they hear many job cuts, Demand coming down, Companies bankruptcy, etc. Consumers fear that they may lose their jobs; so, they have less confidence to spend money and buy goods; this will result in reduction in demand in the market; Consumers start saving money instead of spending money; This is a downward spiral in the economy; Producers do not stock materials; they reduce their productions, gets into the cost reduction activities, worried about the profitability, etc

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Assignable Cause
Bad Incidences Happening; Example: September 11 Terrorist Attack in US; International Airport blocks in Thailand; Mumbai Attacked in India;

etc

Terrorists Attack on 11 September in US


Created fear in people

th

People cancelled their travel plans

Resulted in low occupancy rates

Airlines & Hotel Industries badly hit

Airline & Hotel Industries offered discounts, Gift coupons, to attract people

But, still, no improvement in occupancy rate


Airline & Hotel Industries started Cost Reduction activities
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Airline & Hotel Industries started Cost Reduction activities

i] Reduce No. of flights

ii] Lay off people

iii] Salary reduction to Not laid off people

In-flight meals reduced

Low or No income to spend and buy goods

They became careful due to the fear of loss of job

Meals supplying company got the hit

Demand for other goods come down

Started saving money Instead of spending

Catering company now, lays off people

Demand for other goods Come down

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