CRIME FORECASTING, PLANNING,

AND PREVENTING ROBBERY CASES

IN CATUBIG, NORTHERN SAMAR

Criminal Research and Statistics

INTRODUCTION
Crime forecasting for police is relatively new. It has been made relevant by recent
criminological theories, made possible by recent information technologies including
Geographic Information System (GIS), and made desirable because of innovative crime
management practices. While focused primarily on the police component of the criminal
justice system it provides a wide range of forecasting settings and models that includes United
Kingdom, and United States jurisdictions, long-and- short-term horizons.

Crime forecasting is not widely practiced by police. While there are numerous econometric
studies of crime or incorporating crime in the literature, one is hard-pressed to find police
departments or other police organizations making regular use of forecasting-econometric or
extrapolative for deployment of limited resources. The major target of police tactics had been
persons and their criminality analyzing the modus operandi of serial criminals and
apprehending them.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

This study aims to find out the performance of Police Officers and Barangay Officials in Crime
forecasting and planning to control robberies in Catubig, Northern Samar.
Specifically, it tries to find out the following:

1. What is the profile of the respondents in terms of:

1.1 Age
1.2 Civil Status
1.3 Sex
1.4 Highest Educational Attainment
1.5 Rank/position

2. Find out the techniques used by Police Officers and Barangay officials in Catubig, Northern
Samar in crmie forecasting and planning to control and prevent robbery incidents.

3. Find out the effectiveness is crime forecasting and planning to control and prevent robbery
incidents.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

This study will be beneficial to the following:
Students. The results of this study will be significant to the students by making them
aware of what is happening in the community.
Policemen/Law Enforcers. This study is significant because they are responsible for
maintaining public order and safety, enforcing the law, preventing, detecting, and
investigating criminal activities.
Future Researchers. This study will provide an in-depth knowledge on incidents
happen in the community. It will lead them to formulate study relevant to the present
study conducted.
SCOPE AND LIMITATION
This study is limited to Policemen assigned in Catubig, Northern Samar. The focus of
this study is to determine the effectiveness of crime forecasting and planning to prevent
robbery cases in Catubig. It will be conducted for the first semester school year 2022-
2023.
The limitation of this study is time constraints, and difficulty to conduct the interview
in a short period of time because of the pandemic.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
This study is anchored on the Control Theories and Crime by Chester L. Britt wherein, it
focuses on the inhabiting effects of conventional social institutions on criminal
behavior. In general, control theories of crime emphasizing social ties to institutions,
such as one’s family, peer group, school, church, community and workplace are
expected to reduce the likelihood of crime by highlighting the negative consequences of
criminal acts for those social ties.
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
This study conceptualizes the relationship between variables. The independent
variable which deal with the profile of the respondents in terms of: age, sex,
educational attainment, civil status, and position/rank. Whereas, the dependent
variable deals on the effectiveness of crime forecasting and planning to prevent
robbery cases in Catubig.
PARADIGM
DEFINITION OF TERMS
The following terms are defined to established better understanding between the readers and the
researchers.
Age. Conceptually and operationally refers to the number of years the respondents exist in the
society.
Sex. Conceptually and operationally refers to the preference of an individual either a man and a
woman.
Civil Status. Conceptually and operationally refers to the social status of the respondents if
he/she is a single, married, widow, separated or single parent.
Crime Control. Conceptually and operationally refers to the methods taken to reduce crime in
society.
Crime. Conceptually and operationally refers to an action or omission that constitutes an offense
that may be prosecuted by the state and is punishable by law.
Educational Attainment. Conceptually, and operationally refers to the highest educational
attainment achieved by the respondent.
Rank/Position. Conceptually, and operationally refers to the work status of the respondents. It is
a profile of the respondents in this particular study.
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Crime Forecasting
Crimes such as drug related offenses, burglaries and much more can be predicted
through crime patterns within a neighborhood or community to better prevent crime in
the future or locate resources in much-needed areas to handle crime as it occurs. Crime
forecasting has for many years been reliant on reports released each year by the FBI.
However, these reports offer only a small view of crimes occurring around the nation
each year or even every day. By allowing officers and police response methods then each
community can be better prepared to manage criminal activities and police outreach
right in their own backyards. The crime forecasting methods and online data that are
centrally collected with regular maintenance of these records can help officers to share
observations and create better early warning systems to keep more people safe within
their towns. This also communities experiencing growth, change, or urbanization to see
trends in other communities to be better prepared for these events in their area.
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Purpose does Crime Forecasting
Crime forecasting can help to prevent recurring crimes in an area by identifying the patterns
of crimes committed in the past or identifying the most common types of crime in an area. It
can also provide information to many departments rather than just one department for better
resources in many communities around the country. This is the advantage of centrally
maintained data, yet collecting data from each individual department to preserve the unique
information and patterns of crime within every community.

Technologies available now also provide a safer storage area, easier or faster access to data,
and the advantage to compare detailed criminal activities information from the smallest
towns to the largest cities for a better understanding of how crime occurs around the country
and in what areas, this can also provide community insights to help make improvements in
our communities to prevent crimes from occurring in the first place. This can help officers to
better meet the challenges of their own communities through education, prevention, and
better response methods. With these systems, communities can be ready with early warning
systems to keep their citizens safe and a constant vigilance within the police force to prevent
these crimes.
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Benfits of Crime Forecasting
Crime forecasting may reduce the incidence of violent crime in areas where a pattern can be
identified for early warnings to prevent others from being victimized. These systems may also
help to prevent police complications such as accidental shootings or excessive force when
officers are having difficulties in interacting with members of the community for internal
quality control that you can count on. Crime forecasting also helps departments to work with
training facilities and universities for better research and training for better crime prevention
over all. Criminal justice is an ever-evolving area of study where new techniques emerge over
time for better policing and to help officers to better police their areas with less force. Crime
forecasting can help to define the needed resources within a community for better police
coverage.
RESEARCH DESIGN
The research design used in this study will be descriptive-correlational type of
research. It is descriptive since it describes the reasons why crimes continue to
arise.
RESPONDENTS
The respondents of the study will be the Police Officers and Barangay Officials
in the municipality of Catubig, Northern Samar.
VARIABLES
The independent and dependent variables will be carefully identified. The
independent variable consists of the civil status, and highest emotional
attainment. Whereas, the dependent variable refers to performance of
Barangay Officials and Police Officers in forecasting and planning in crime
control particularly on robbery in selected areas/barangays in Catubig,
Northern Samar.
RESEARCH INSTRUMENT

The research isntrument is patterned from the study of Guarino, et al., 2021
titled Crime Forecasting, and Planning in Catubig, Northern Samar. The
survey questionnaire is composed of three (3) parts: Part-I Profile of the
Respondents, Part-II Techniques used by Police Officers in Crime Forecasting
and Control Crime in the Municipality of Catubig, Northern Samar, and Part-
III How effective is crime forecasting and planning to control the crime
incidents in Catubig, Northern Samar.
VALIDATION OF RESEARCH INSTRUMENT
The research instrument will use the adopted/patterning questionnaire from
pervious researcher. Hence, no need to validate the instrument.
DATA GATHERING
The researcher will ask permission from their course professor to give a letter
to the Chair of the College to conduct a survey about ccrime forecasting,
planning, to control crime particularly on robbery in Catubig, Northern
Samar.

Upon the approval of the college chair, the researchers will personally
administer the survey questionnaireto be answered by the respondents.
Questionnaire will be retrieved once respondents finish answering the
questionnaire.

After the retrieval of the survey questionnaire, the data will be organized with
the help of the research statistician. It will be tallied, computed with the use f
statistical tools, presented through the tables or graphs, and will be
interpreted.
STATISTICAL TREATMENT OF DATA

The research instrument will use the following statistical tools to interpret the
data involve in this study.

Frequency Counts and Percentages. To interpret the profile of the

respondents.

Weighted Mean. It will be used to determine the performance of the Police

Officers and Barangay Officials in the Municipality of Catubig, Northern
Samar in relation with forecasting and planning in crime control.