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Lectures 3 and 4
Lectures 3 and 4
Financial Analysis
Vertical analysis normalizes each statement by that particular
statement’s most important figure (with one exception, Cash Flows…
one for which Vertical Analysis is futile). It is called vertical as it is a
comparison from within one year. For Income Statement, one
divides everything by that year’s sales. For Balance Sheet, figure to
divide by to normalize is Total Assets
Vertical analysis normalizes each statement by that particular
statement’s most important figure (with one exception, Cash Flows…
one for which Vertical Analysis is futile). It is called vertical as it is a
comparison from within one year. For Income Statement, one
divides everything by that year’s sales. For Balance Sheet, figure to
divide by to normalize is Total Assets
Source: Morningstar
Vertical analysis normalizes each statement by that particular
statement’s most important figure (with one exception, Cash Flows…
one for which Vertical Analysis is futile). It is called vertical as it is a
comparison from within one year. For Income Statement, one
divides everything by that year’s sales. For Balance Sheet, figure to
divide by to normalize is Total Assets
Source: Morningstar
Horizontal analysis uses 1 year's worth of entries (i.e. each
individually, like Cash for baseline yr t=0, Inventory for baseline yr
t=0) as point of reference so that ensuing years are looked as
percentual differences relative to that baseline year (i.e. Casht=1
would be represented as percentage of Casht=0… like Casht=1 = 110%,
which means Casht=1=110% x Casht=0)
Horizontal analysis uses 1 year's worth of entries (i.e. each
individually, like Cash for baseline yr t=0, Inventory for baseline yr
t=0) as point of reference so that ensuing years are looked as
percentual differences relative to that baseline year (i.e. Casht=1
would be represented as percentage of Casht=0… like Casht=1 = 110%,
which means Casht=1=110% x Casht=0)
Example of extracting quick knowledge using horizontal analysis Balance Sheet Accounts
(such can be done with Income Statement and, less meaningfully, with Cash Flow Statement
There is so much one can say -
comparatively speaking - just by
looking at these two companies’ I/S
100% and B/S, side by side. Can you try to
describe some important differences?
Accounts
Receivable
100%
PP&E
100%
Goodwill
Source: Morningstar
Horizontal analysis uses 1 year's worth of entries (i.e. each
individually, like Cash for baseline yr t=0, Inventory for baseline yr
t=0) as point of reference so that ensuing years are looked as
percentual differences relative to that baseline year (i.e. Casht=1
would be represented as percentage of Casht=0… like Casht=1 = 110%,
which means Casht=1=110% x Casht=0)
Example of extracting quick knowledge using horizontal analysis Balance Sheet Accounts
(such can be done with Income Statement and, less meaningfully, with Cash Flow Statement
There is so much one can say -
comparatively speaking - just by
looking at these two companies’ I/S
100% and B/S, side by side. Can you try to
describe some important differences?
Accounts
Receivable Given this analysis with a subset of
balance sheet accounts, we can infer:
100% -Both companies appear to have been
investing heavily and mirror each other
PP&E -Moreover, though both appear to be
have been similarly “acquisitive” (using
Goodwill data), Pepsi seems to have
spent more on internal/organic projects
100% (higher PP&E growth)
Goodwill -Last point (higher organic investing due
to higher PP&E growth) can be consi-
dered as “likelier” when seen alongside
Long Term 100% an A/R that went up too (as is the case
Debt when new internal projects lunched)
- Turns out Pepsi has poured itself over
an internal division called Pepsi GNG,
Source: Morningstar which deals with nutritional goods
Financial Ratios, Value Multiples and
Fundamental Analysis
Differences and Relationships
Financial Ratios
(How well does this company Perform? How much does it rely on Leverage? Is the company
sufficiently Liquid to avert a last minute emergency (like an earthquake .. Ej. Toyota)?
Illustrative Financial Statements for Company X
What is the Invested Capital in a Business?
Invested Capital (IK) is the historical value (book value, not the market value) of capital that has been
Invested in company. With a little balance sheet rearrangement, we see that IK equals either CA-CL +
LTA+FA-OLTL or SE + LTD. The latter (SE+LTD) is quicker to calculate (when one needs to find IK), as all it
takes is add book value of debt (LTD) with Stockholder Equity (abbreviated as SE) There is no need to tease
out SE account You use the total. Contrast that with the Liabilities side, where you only use LTD)
Summary of representative ratios and value multiples
1 2 3 4 5
Types of Ratios
Profit
EBIT
Margin
SALES
P
ROIC ROIC
inorganico orgánico SALES
Q
(1+ % ) Sales
Efficiency
IK-GW PPEnet+OLTA+CA
GoodWill % IK
OLTL + CL
Performance
Performance
TBD (How Profitable and Efficient is a company?)
Profitability and Efficiency
If PPE goes
Can I lower expenses? up, Dep too!
Profit
EBIT
Margin
SALES
P Can we increase prices?
ROIC ROIC
inorganico orgánico SALES Can I sell to new customers?
Q Sell more to current customers?
(1+ % ) TBD
Efficiency
Sales
IK-GW PPEnet+OLTA+CA
Are we converting
CA’s to cash
fast enough?
GoodWill % IK Can we lower our IK by
OLTL + CL using providers as
“short term lenders”?
GW%= IK - 1
IK-GW This makes my IK lower, but
how does this Liability take
away Fin or Op flexibility
Unifying concept:
g* = Sustainable
growth rate
All are
Financial Ratios
Unifying concept:
g* = Sustainable
growth rate
(Lectures 5 and 6)
g*= Maximum growth that is possible without needing to issue new stock
g* = PM x Eff x Fl x (1-d)
1 – (PM x Eff x FL x (1-d))
,where d = 1 – NI – Div
EBIT x (1 – T)
g* is higher if you increase your profit margin (PM) or efficiency (Eff) or if you lever your company more (FL)
EBIT Sales IK
SALES IK E
Value Multiples
(How valuable is this company?)
Value Multiples ≠ Financial Ratios
Value Multiples
While several value multiples exist, the
ones shown below are certainly the best
to compare your firm to others
Equity Libro
Patrimonio
Patrimonio
Fundamental
Analysis
$ invertido por compañias
Deuda Libro
Deuda
Largo Plazo
Equity Libro
Patrimonio
Patrimonio
Fundamental
Analysis
$ invertido por compañias
Deuda Libro
Deuda Deuda
Largo Plazo Mercado
Equity Libro
Patrimonio
Equity
Patrimonio
Mercado
Fundamental
Analysis
Cuanto vale la Deuda y el
$ invertido por compañias
Patrimonio en el Mercado?
Deuda Libro
Deuda
Largo Plazo
Deuda
Mercado ?
Equity Libro
Patrimonio
Patrimonio
Equity
Mercado ?
Fundamental
Analysis
$ invertido por compañias
Deuda Libro
Deuda Deuda
Largo Plazo Mercado
Equity Libro
Patrimonio
Equity
Patrimonio
Mercado
Fundamental
Analysis
$ invertido por compañias
EB
Patrimonio
Patrimonio EM
Equity
Mercado
EB
Patrimonio
Patrimonio EM
Equity
Mercado
FCF = Flujo de Caja Libre = EBIT x (1-T) + Depreciacion – Inversiones – Incrementos de Capital Trabajo
DM+EM
Value
Multiples < Fundamental
Analysis = Buy stock
Value
Multiples > Fundamental
Analysis = Sell stock
Value
Multiples = Fundamental
Analysis Indifferent
Value
Multiples
Profitability Efficiency Leverage Liquidity Leverage
(Book) (Market)
Fundamental
Analysis
Reliance on Debt to
Performance support business Economic
Value expected
of Company
Ability
to weather
bad surprises Value
Multiples
Profitability Efficiency Leverage Liquidity Leverage
(Book) (Market)
Fundamental
Analysis
Unifying concept:
g* = Sustainable
growth rate
(Lectures 5 and 6)
Value
Financial Ratios Multiples
Reliance on Debt to
Performance support business Economic
Value expected
of Company
Ability
to weather
bad surprises Value
Multiples
Profitability Efficiency Leverage Liquidity Leverage
(Book) (Market)
Fundamental
Analysis
Unifying concept:
g* = Sustainable
growth rate
(Lectures 5 and 6)
A mix of Value
Financial Ratios the two Multiples
Reliance on Debt to
Performance support business Economic
Value expected
of Company
Ability
to weather
bad surprises Value
Multiples
Profitability Efficiency Leverage Liquidity Leverage
(Book) (Market)
Fundamental
Analysis
Unifying concept:
g* = Sustainable
growth rate
(Lectures 5 and 6)
A mix of Value
Financial Ratios the two Multiples
Reliance on Debt to
Performance support business Economic
Value expected
of Company
Ability Market’s
Opinion
to weather
bad surprises Value
Multiples
Profitability Efficiency Leverage Liquidity Leverage Your
(Book) (Market) Opinion
Fundamental
Analysis
Unifying concept:
g* = Sustainable
growth rate
(Lectures 5 and 6)
This figure has a few problems. While “helpful”, it has the following two issues:
More problems: this financial ratio has as its numerator a figure that is affected by the
quantity of financing:
- The more debt, the higher its Interest Expense, the lower its Net Income
- Remember that Net Inc = Sales – COGS – Other Expenses – Interest Expense – Taxes
The above comments make this figure less useful for comparing between companies. Two
exact companies, selling the same exact amount, could have very different levels of Interest
Expense (one borrows more than the other one). It also has (as noted above) a denominator
which includes more than what we’re investing.
This figure has a few problems too. While “helpful”, it has following two issues:
- In its denominator, dividing by Shareholders Equity ignores that there is “other” capital
(Long Term Debt) that is ALSO helping the company finance its new projects
- Remember that, at least, Total Assets in ROA included LTD while ROE ignores LTD
altogether (though TA includes more than LTD, is better than just Equity)
More problems: this financial ratio has as its numerator a figure that is affected by the
quantity of financing (same as before):
- The more debt, the higher its Interest Expense, the lower its Net Income
- Remember that Net Inc = Sales – COGS – Other Expenses – Interest Expense – Taxes
Once again, the above comments make this figure less useful for comparing companies. Two
exact companies, selling the same exact amount, could have very different levels of Interest
Expense (one borrows more than the other one). It also has (as noted above) a denominator
which ignores the fact that there is more capital (in the form of Long Term Debt) that might
be in use alongside equity to invest.
Note: There are few exceptions where using ROE is better than the alternative. One such exception is to use ROE for financial services (banks) companies. Notwithstanding, this is beyond the scope of the course.
What is the alternative?
ROIC = EBIT x (1-T)
IK
.. where IK = SE + LTD
Conclusion: Of all the widely used profitability ratios, please make sure you always consider this class, so
you can discriminate against many, and so you can favor ROIC. ROIC Allows you to compare companies of
different capital structure (different levels of debt) and is consistent on both the numerator and
denominator sense. Isn’t that great?
An interesting kink: If two companies are similar but one started a century ago and one started 10 years
ago, the average Invested Capital of the newer company will be higher (because the older company’s IK
started long time ago… Even ROIC is not totally perfect)
Can we adapt Dupont to ROIC?
ROIC as more than just a ratio: The DuPont Model (starting with ROE)
But, remember that LTD + SE equals IK, which stands for “Invested Capital”
ROE = NI/ SE = [NI/ Sales] x [Sales / Tot Assets] x [ Tot Assets / SE]
But, remember that LTD + SE equals IK, which stands for “Invested Capital”
ROE = NI/ SE = [NI/ Sales] x [Sales / Tot Assets] x [ Tot Assets / SE]
With this re-composition of ROE, you can compare 2 companies with each other and can actually
see, even if the 2 companies have equal ROE’s, what’s different between them
Now, we know that ROE is distorted by capital financing artifacts (Net Inc has the effects of
financing). Even considering the Equity Multiplier effect as a separate “contributor” to ROE, Total
Assets includes more than what we want (it is not strictly Invested Capital!!!)
ROIC as more than just a ratio: The DuPont Model (adapting it to ROIC)
But, remember that LTD + SE equals IK, which stands for “Invested Capital”
ROE = NI/ SE = [NI/ Sales] x [Sales / Tot Assets] x [ Tot Assets / SE]
With this re-composition of ROE, you can compare 2 companies with each other and can actually
see, even if the 2 companies have equal ROE’s, what’s different between them
ROIC = EBIT(1-T)/ IK
Now, we know that ROE is distorted by capital financing artifacts (Net Inc has the effects of
financing). Even= considering
ROIC the
[EBIT Equity
x (1-T) Multiplier effect
/ Sales] x as a[Sales
separate
/ IK]“contributor”
x 1 to ROE, ROE is
still saddled by the very core of its weakness: it still remains ROE!
ROIC as more than just a ratio: The DuPont Model (adapting it to ROIC)
But, remember that LTD + SE equals IK, which stands for “Invested Capital”
ROE = NI/ SE = [NI/ Sales] x [Sales / Tot Assets] x [ Tot Assets / SE]
With this re-composition of ROE, you can compare 2 companies with each other and can actually
see, even if the 2 companies have equal ROE’s, what’s different between them
ROIC = EBIT(1-T)/ IK
Now, we know that ROE is distorted by capital financing artifacts (Net Inc has the effects of
financing). Even= considering
ROIC the
[EBIT Equity
x (1-T) Multiplier effect
/ Sales] x as a[Sales
separate
/ IK]“contributor”
x 1 to ROE, ROE is
still saddled by the very core of its weakness: it still remains ROE!
ROIC = [After Tax Operating Inc Margin] x [ Efficiency ] x 1
But, remember that LTD + SE equals IK, which stands for “Invested Capital”
ROE = NI/ SE = [NI/ Sales] x [Sales / Tot Assets] x [Tot Assets / SE]
With this re-composition of ROE, you can compare 2 companies with each other and can actually
see, even if the 2 companies have equal ROE’s, what’s different between them
ROIC = EBIT(1-T)/ IK
Now, we know that ROE is distorted by capital financing artifacts (Net Inc has the effects of
financing). Even= considering
ROIC the
[EBIT Equity
x (1-T) Multiplier effect
/ Sales] x as a[Sales
separate
/ IK]“contributor”
x 1 to ROE, ROE is
still saddled by the very core of its weakness: it still remains ROE!
ROIC = [After Tax Operating Inc Margin] x [ Efficiency ] x 1
With this re-composition of ROE, you can compare 2 companies with each other and can actually
see, even if the 2 companies have equal ROE’s, what’s different between them
Now, we know that ROE is distorted by capital financing artifacts (Net Inc has the effects of
financing). Even considering the Equity Multiplier effect as a separate “contributor” to ROE, ROE is
still saddled by the very core of its weakness: it still remains ROE!
ROIC as more than just a ratio: The DuPont Model (adapting it to ROIC)
With this re-composition of ROE, you can compare 2 companies with each other and can actually
see, even if the 2 companies have equal ROE’s, what’s different between them
ROIC = EBIT(1-T)/ IK
ROIC = EBIT(1-T)/ IK
ROIC = EBIT(1-T)/ IK
Leverage Ratios
(should we use book or market values?)
What about determining how leveraged (apalancamiento) a company is?
When we talk about Leverage Ratios, we think of “Long Term Debt as % of Enterprise Value”
Why?
What about determining how leveraged (apalancamiento) a company is?
When we talk about Leverage Ratios, we think of “Long Term Debt as % of Enterprise Value”
Why? Lets examine this ratio (and see why Market vs. Book Value) through an example
What about determining how leveraged (apalancamiento) a company is?
When we talk about Leverage Ratios, we think of “Long Term Debt as % of Enterprise Value”
Why? Lets examine this ratio (and see why Market vs. Book Value) through an example
What does this What is the problem with this ratio
ratio appear to tell to measure Leverage?
Calculation us?
CL 0.95 1.04
CA
24,283 18,154
25,497 17,441
LTD
LTD + SE 30% 50%
13,656 20,568
13,656+31,635 20,658+20,745
DM
DM+ EM 7% 15%
13,656 20,568
13,656+177,690 20,568+114,120
When we talk about Leverage Ratios, we think of “Long Term Debt as % of Enterprise Value”
Why? Lets examine this ratio (and see why Market vs. Book Value) through an example
What does this What is the problem with this ratio
ratio appear to tell to measure Leverage?
Calculation us?
13,656 20,568
13,656+31,635 20,658+20,745
When we talk about Leverage Ratios, we think of “Long Term Debt as % of Enterprise Value”
Why? Lets examine this ratio (and see why Market vs. Book Value) through an example
What does this What is the problem with this ratio
ratio appear to tell to measure Leverage?
Calculation us?
Using this “Quick Ratio”, This ratio is focused on Current Assets and
CL 0.95 1.04 which is a short-term ratio, Current Liabilities. Thus, it is not a measure
we are initially led to believe of long term leverage (is actually a measure of
CA the company is similarly liquidity, as noted earlier)
24,283 18,154 leveraged
25,497 17,441
When we talk about Leverage Ratios, we think of “Long Term Debt as % of Enterprise Value”
Why? Lets examine this ratio (and see why Market vs. Book Value) through an example
What does this What is the problem with this ratio
ratio appear to tell to measure Leverage?
Calculation us?
Using this “Quick Ratio”, This ratio is focused on Current Assets and
CL 0.95 1.04 which is a short-term ratio, Current Liabilities. Thus, it is not a measure
we are initially led to believe of long term leverage (is actually a measure of
CA the company is similarly liquidity, as noted earlier)
24,283 18,154 leveraged
25,497 17,441
-Please be VERY careful using Profitability ratios that are “affected” by financing effects
- Using these type of distorted ratios makes it difficult to compare apples to apples
-When calculating Leverage Ratios (to see how much long term debt there is as % of total Enterprise
Value) please rely on market values versus book values (historical figures):
-Using book value figures blatantly ignores that companies could have raised lots of capital that
today, as things may have turned out, may be worth more or less than
- The Invested Capital may have led to great value creation since first raised and, as such,
companies can actually be less leveraged than historical data suggests
-Yet, calculating market leverage ratios is not possible when companies are not public