Bobcat Management Plan

Scott Galdos & Angie Lopez

Wildlife Ecology & Conservation 11:216:464
Fall 2021
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Part 1: Species Profile 3

Species Description: 3

Taxonomy & Classification: 3

Life History, Behavior & Ecology 4

Local New Jersey Status & Distribution 5

Species Concerns 5

Part 2: New Jersey Population Status 6

PVA Models 6

Part 3: Conservation and Management Plan 8

Basic Matrix 8

Stochastic Population Matrix 9

Sensitivity and Elasticity Matrix 13

Lynx rufus Management Plan 14

Works Cited 15
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Part 1: Species Profile

Species Description:

Bobcats (Lynx rufus) are small

carnivorous cats with shades of
brown and black stripes and spots
throughout their bodies. Additional
features include noticeable short
ears with tapered tips and short bob
tail that give the common name to
these cats. Average length in adults
can be from 65 to 105 cm (25 to 105
in) and average weight can be from
4 to 15kg (8 to 33 lbs).

Taxonomy & Classification:

According to the United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the United
States Forest Service (USFS), there are 12 subspecies of bobcats and one
recognized hybridized species with Lynx (Lynx canadensis). The following is a
list of the recognized subspecies of bobcats by the USDA and USFS:
-Lynx rufus baileyi Merriam
-Lynx rufus californicus Mearns
-Lynx rufus escuinapae J. A. Allen
-Lynx rufus fasciatus Rafinesque
-Lynx rufus floridanus Rafinesque
-Lynx rufus gigas Bangs
-Lynx rufus oaxacensis Goodwin
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-Lynx rufus pallescens Merriam

-Lynx rufus peninsularis Thomas
-Lynx rufus rufus
-Lynx rufus superiorensis Peterson and Downing
-Lynx rufus texensis Mearns

Life History, Behavior & Ecology

Bobcats (lynx rufu) are native to North America. These bobcats like to prey on a
variety of small animals such as rabbits, squirrels, small or sick deer, rats ,
nesting birds and turkeys! Adult bobcats eat about 3 pounds of meat at a time ,
meaning that if they can catch a bigger animal they will save it for a later time by
covering it up. Bobcats have excellent hearing and vision which makes them
great hunters .

Bobcats like to den in crevices in rocks , under fallen logs and brush piles.
Female bobcats will line the den with soft debris such as moss and dry leaves ,
to keep the kittens comfortable and warm. Females also change the location of
their den sites to stay safe from predators.Bobcats are typically solitary animals
except during breeding season( between February and June) and when females
are rearing young. Bobcats have a gestation period of about 2 months and have
a litter size of 1-6 kittens. On average they have 2-3 kittens which will be weaned
at about 12 weeks , this is when they’ll start eating meat that the mother brings
back to them. After about 10 months they will become independent. Their
average lifespan in the wild is 12-13 years.

Bobcats rarely vocalize but produce loud growls, snarls and hisses. During the
breeding season bobcats will vocalize more.Bobcats their territories with scent
markings. Females will never share their territory with each other while the
territories of male bobcats will overlap with several females.

Local New Jersey Status & Distribution

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In NJ , bobcats used to be widespread, but due to the increase in urbanization,

hunting and massive deforestation their population has been in a massive
decline and are now listed as an endangered species in NJ

Species Concerns
The History of bobcats in New Jersey has been a drop off in population
sizes. When European settlers arrived to the east coast of North America,
Bobcats along with all other top predators were hunted ruthlessly for the
protection of livestock and communities. Additionally, mass deforestation across
the state for resources and freed lands for development reduced the population
even greater. Although small populations now exist in isolated areas, habitat
fragmentation contributes with decline of Bobcats given that finding viable mates
are inaccessible and traversing through human developments can be dangerous
on individuals. Since the 1950’s Bobcats reportings have occurred from vehicle
collisions or bobcat carcasses found near roads.
Lynx rufus populations nationally are stable but individuals are rare and
according to the organizations such as the International Union for Conservation
of Nature and the Convention on International Trade on Endangered Species
place Bobcats as species of least concern unless the trade controls are
unrestrained. However, on the US Federal List and in New Jersey state and
institutional records show that Bobcats are endangered and populations continue
to decline. Habitat fragmentation continues to be a driving vector for negative
population growth in New Jersey and due to the state’s spatial pressure by
intensive agriculture and dense human populations add on to the pressure on
greater probability of extinction of bobcats in the state of New Jersey. While legal
harvesting of bobcats is allowed in other states and in Canada, hunting or
trapping Bobcats in New Jersey is illegal, given the endangered status of
bobcats.
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Part 2: New Jersey Population Status

PVA Models
PVA or the Population Viability Model set of data that outputs possible
future predictions of population trends based on past year population numbers in
a population. Variables used in calculating population projections include a
calculated lambda which directly states if the population is on a growing trend, a
value of greater than 1. Populations that decrease have a value of less than 1
and populations that show no change in a population have an exact value of 1.
In our PVA model, data provided by the NJ Department of Environmental
Protection on Bobcats only contains a total population estimate from 2007 to
2016 with only three years missing. Additionally, Bobcat numbers from this study
were only obtained from the Northwestern region of the state. Estimated
Population Sizes for Bobcats in New Jersey were obtained by using Bayesian
Spatial Capture-Recapture models. From the given population, we can calculate
our important variables that will help construct PVA models.
The following Mean Lambda and Standard Deviation Lambda to produce a
value on lambda and probability of extinctions. For missing population values
from missing years, we used the mean lambda value from the other years to
represent each year that is missing from our dataset and complete the PVA
model. Our model (Figure. ) represents the PVA model of New Jersey Bobcats
for ten trials over ten years.
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From a starting population size at 276, the model depicts ten population
projections that show few populations becoming extinctions and more trials
surviving. However, some of the populations that surpass ten years surviving do
not have a good chance of surviving in the future with some projects only having
less than 100 individuals left in the population which may not contain enough
genetic content to create viable offspring for future generations. Despite the few
populations that show slow growth, most if not all of the projections would still
place each population as endangered as according to the IUCN’s red list criteria
for endangered species which states populations with less than 2500 mature
individuals in a population will be classified as endangered (IUCN 2000).
Currently all ten populations output extinction probabilities at average 20%.
Although this model is strictly based on past population size and without
environmental vector influences, populations of Bobcats are at risk of extinction
in the near future of 10 years. A long term management plan to increase the
population will be required to conserve Bobcat populations in New Jersey.

1 Figure #; PVA model for Bobcats, Lynx rufus, data obtained from 1A. Bobcat Conservation 2017-2018.
Data shown represents 10 hypothetical population projects over ten years.
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Part 3: Conservation and Management Plan

Basic Matrix
Before we can determine the best course of action for conservation
management on Bobcats, a matrix of the population would be needed. The
matrix will use data from the survival probability of bobcats at different age
classes, the fecundity and the probability of reproduction to produce the
probability of fertility in bobcats and project the proportion of certain age classes
by 100 years. The objective of this model is to produce a stable lambda value
based on three age classes: adults, yearlings, and newborns/juveniles and
interpret the change of the population over the course of 100 years.

2 Figure #; Gives the basic matrix model for 276 Bobcats for 3 age classes in New Jersey
3 FIgure #; GIve the same matrix model as the basic matrix model but the values at each age class have
been converted into a logarithmic scale.
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From the most recent population value in 2016 of 276 bobcats, we have to
give an educational guess as to the number of bobcats in each of the age class.
Proportional values of each class was obtained from an Ohio study (Rose et al;
2001) which lists the number of bobcats for each age group: adults, yearlings,
and newborn/juveniles.
The lambda in our matrix stabilizes at around 0.949 which indicates that
these populations of Bobcats from Northwestern New Jersey are declining and
functionally extinct within 25 years to 50 years. This model adds to the support
that Bobcats need a conservation management plan to raise the population
numbers.
However, it needs to be stated that this is only a base matrix that models
the population without stochastic variability such as weather patterns or
pathogens that can affect the population in ways that this model alone cannot
predict. For that we would need a stochastic model to predict population trends
based on stochastic variables.

Stochastic Population Matrix

For this model, we reused our matrix of survivability and fertility from our
base matrix.

In order to add variability that will represent stochastic factors into the
matrix, we used educational guessing to select variances for our model. A
variance value of 0.1 for each survival and fertility value was used to observe
small changes to our population without having exponential characteristics in our
models. From these values, a stochastic model can be calculated and applied to
model and produce a model that is representative of bobcat populations and
stochastic variables.

4 Table #; Matrix on bobcat survivability and fertility on three age classes

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From our running models, mean population and mean lambda trends of
100 trials over 25 years, yield results not too different from the base matrix. The
mean lambda for the stochastic model stabilizes at 0.94 at around sixth year.
Given that lambda is only slightly less than one, meaning the population is
steadily decreasing. In terms of the mean population size, the stochastic model
yields a negative slope with less than 100 individuals presistenting after 25 years.

5 Table #; stochastic matrix used for the stochastic model based on the base matrix and variance.
6 Figure #; Mean Lambda graph for the stochastic model of Bobcats from 100 trials over 25 years
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With the models to support that bobcat populations in the Northwest of

New Jersey are at risk of extinction, a management plan is needed to conserve
the species in New Jersey. However, in terms of human resources and effective
planning, we can analyze which age class of Bobcats would be focused on to
raise the population.
Certain variables from the stochastic matrix can help us pick out which
ecological parts of bobcats we can use to help plan out a potential management
plan. For instance on one table #, the survivability in adults and in yearlings are
the lowest values. Adult survivability at 0.577 and yearling survivability 0.428. We
can target these values and plan a conservation plan that can potentially raise
these values and raise lambda to value greater than one which would result in a
growing population over time.
By slightly changing the values of the lowest values in the stochastic
model, we can get an idea of what a conservation plan for bobcat might be
planned around. By raising the survivability in yearling bobcats to at least 0.8 and
the survivability of adult bobcats in 0.45, we have a steady growing population of
bobcats and mean lambda of 1.02. The reasoning behind the number is because
naturally adults will only live for so long until they die off from natural causes or of
human activity such as vehicle collisions. Yearling survivability is low and by
helping their survival, there might be a chance at increasing the number of
bobcats graduating into adults and contributing to more bobcats surviving as they
age. The likely reason for survival in newborn bobcats is because they are
7 Figure # Mean Population Sizes from 100 trials over a 25 year trial
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protected and raised by their parents, therefore conservation efforts in newborn

survivability are not needed.

Sensitivity and Elasticity Matrix

8 Figure #; Graph showing stochastic model with altered survival probabilities to show lambda greater
than one.
9 Figure #; Graph showing stochastic model with altered survival probabilities to show mean population
size increasing.
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For our sensitivity and elasticity matric model we are using our matrix model of
survivability and fertility.
Individuals can be classified into 3 classes: young/juvenile ,yearling , adults.
Individuals in each class have a specific probability of survival. Our sensitivity
analyses will reveal how small changes in F and P can affect lambda and other
elements. Our lambda values are pretty high but do not reach 1. So the
population decreases about 0.1% per year.
We are not too focused on increased adult fertility because our graphs show that
we have high numbers for yearlings and adults. We have to focus on increasing
survivability in newborn/juveniles , because as we see in the charts these
numbers are very low. Its important we focus on this stage class in our

management plan.
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Lynx rufus Management Plan

● Main Management Plan centered around yearling bobcat survival.
○ Increasing surviving individuals increases the number of potentially
breeding bobcats.
■ Raises Lambda above a value 1
■ Steady population growth will be present.
The main cause of death for bobcats is humans and human-related activities. It's
important that juveniles make it into the yearling stage so that they can
reproduce.

● Possible real-world solutions

○ Maintain “No Harvesting” status
○ Public outreach for civilians on Bobcat conservation.
■ Reduce vehicle speed in known Bobcat habitats
○ Collaborate with other environmental efforts to preserve forest
wilderness in the Northwestern region of New Jersey and to halt
continuing deforestation.

Works Cited
Bobcat Lynx Rufus Status: State: Endangered ... - Nj.gov. https://nj.gov/dep/fgw/////ensp/pdf/end-thrtened/bobcat.pdf.

Ciszek, D. (n.d.). Lynx Rufus (bobcat). Animal Diversity Web. Retrieved December 10, 2021, from
https://animaldiversity.org/accounts/Lynx_rufus/.

Fowles, G. (2017). (rep.). SGCN Mammal Research and Management (pp. 1–9). Trenton, NJ: Endangered and Nongame
Species Program.

IUCN Species Survival Commission, . (2012). Iucn Red List Categories & Criteria (2nd Edition, Vol. 3.1). IUCN, Gland,
Switzerland

Newell, J., & Podruzny, K. (2018). Bobcat Population Reconstruction, Habitat, and Harvest Management. Montana Fish,
Wildlife, & Parks.

New Jersey endangered and Threatened Species Field Guide. Conserve Wildlife Foundation of New Jersey. (n.d.).
Retrieved December 10, 2021, from http://www.conservewildlifenj.org/species/fieldguide/view/Lynx%20rufus/.

Paws. “Bobcats.” PAWS, https://www.paws.org/resources/bobcats/.

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Rose C, Prange IS, Landry SM. Extirpated, immigrated, genetically stratified—first demographic assessment of a recovering
bobcat (Lynx rufus) population after a century of extinction. Mammal research. 2020;65(2):423-434. doi:10.1007/s13364-
019-00462-1

Tesky, Julie L. 1995. Lynx rufus. In: Fire Effects Information System, [Online]; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest
Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station; Fire Sciences Laboratory (Producer). Available:
www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/animals/mammal/lyru/all.html [2021, December 10].

Tarlowe, P. (2012, January 17). How to Avoid the Capture of Bobcats While Trapping Other Furbearers. NJDEP division of
Fish & Wildlife. Retrieved December 10, 2021, from https://www.nj.gov/dep/fgw/news/2012/bobcat.htm#:~:text=There%20is
%20no%20open%20hunting,kill%20one%20in%20the%20state.

Tycz BM. Evaluation of bobcat (Lynx rufus) survival, harvest, and population size in the west-central region of South Dakota.
Published online 2016.