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Metotreksat I Fajzer
Metotreksat I Fajzer
Metotreksat I Fajzer
Summary
Background Patients on therapeutic immunosuppressants for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases were Lancet Rheumatol 2021
excluded from COVID-19 vaccine trials. We therefore aimed to evaluate humoral and cellular immune responses to Published Online
COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) in patients taking methotrexate and commonly used targeted July 8, 2021
https://doi.org/10.1016/
biological therapies, compared with healthy controls. Given the roll-out of extended interval vaccination programmes
S2665-9913(21)00212-5
to maximise population coverage, we present findings after the first dose.
See Online/Comment
https://doi.org/10.1016/
Methods In this cohort study, we recruited consecutive patients with a dermatologist-confirmed diagnosis of psoriasis S2665-9913(21)00217-4
who were receiving methotrexate or targeted biological monotherapy (tumour necrosis factor [TNF] inhibitors, *Joint first authors
interleukin [IL]-17 inhibitors, or IL-23 inhibitors) from a specialist psoriasis centre serving London and South East England. †Joint senior authors
Consecutive volunteers without psoriasis and not receiving systemic immunosuppression who presented for vaccination St John’s Institute of
at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust (London, UK) were included as the healthy control cohort. All Dermatology, Guy’s and
participants had to be eligible to receive the BNT162b2 vaccine. Immunogenicity was evaluated immediately before and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation
Trust (S K Mahil PhD,
on day 28 (±2 days) after vaccination. The primary outcomes were humoral immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 spike
A Raharja MBBS, D Baudry MSc,
glycoprotein, defined as neutralising antibody responses to wild-type SARS-CoV-2, and spike-specific T-cell responses T Dasandi MSc, F Meynell MSc,
(including interferon-γ, IL-2, and IL-21) 28 days after vaccination. Prof J N Barker MD,
Prof C H Smith MD), Centre for
Rheumatic Diseases
Findings Between Jan 14 and April 4, 2021, 84 patients with psoriasis (17 on methotrexate, 27 on TNF inhibitors, 15 on
(K Bechman PhD,
IL-17 inhibitors, and 25 on IL-23 inhibitors) and 17 healthy controls were included. The study population had a median Prof M A Brown PhD,
age of 43 years (IQR 31–52), with 56 (55%) males, 45 (45%) females, and 85 (84%) participants of White ethnicity. Prof A P Cope PhD,
Seroconversion rates were lower in patients receiving immunosuppressants (60 [78%; 95% CI 67–87] of 77) than in J B Galloway PhD), Department
of Immunobiology, Faculty of
controls (17 [100%; 80–100] of 17), with the lowest rate in those receiving methotrexate (seven [47%; 21–73] of 15). Life Sciences & Medicine
Neutralising activity against wild-type SARS-CoV-2 was significantly lower in patients receiving methotrexate (median (C Domingo-Vila BSc,
50% inhibitory dilution 129 [IQR 40–236]) than in controls (317 [213–487], p=0·0032), but was preserved in those E Pollock BSc, K Sychowska MSc,
receiving targeted biologics (269 [141–418]). Neutralising titres against the B.1.1.7 variant were similarly low in all Prof T I M Tree PhD),
Department of Infectious
participants. Cellular immune responses were induced in all groups, and were not attenuated in patients receiving Diseases, School of
methotrexate or targeted biologics compared with controls. Immunology and Microbial
Sciences (C Graham MRes,
Interpretation Functional humoral immunity to a single dose of BNT162b2 is impaired by methotrexate but not by T Lechmere MSc,
Prof M H Malim PhD, J Seow PhD,
targeted biologics, whereas cellular responses are preserved. Seroconversion alone might not adequately reflect K J Doores PhD), and Psychology
vaccine immunogenicity in individuals with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases receiving therapeutic Department, Institute for
immunosuppression. Real-world pharmacovigilance studies will determine how these findings reflect clinical Psychiatry Psychology and
effectiveness. Neuroscience (S Norton PhD),
King’s College London, London,
UK
Funding UK National Institute for Health Research. Correspondence to:
Prof Catherine H Smith, St John’s
Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 Institute of Dermatology, Guy’s
license. and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation
Trust, King’s College London,
London SE1 9RT, UK
Introduction (TNF), interleukin (IL)-17, and IL-23, are highly effective at catherine.smith@kcl.ac.uk
Immune-mediated inflammatory diseases including attenuating the shared pathogenic immune pathways
psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and inflammatory bowel across immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, but they
disease collectively affect 3–7% of European and North also increase the risk of serious infections, particularly
American populations.1–3 Drugs such as methotrexate, and with respiratory pathogens.4,5 Notably, in many countries,
biologics targeting the cytokines tumour necrosis factor including the UK, individuals with immune-mediated
Research in context
Evidence before this study lowest rate identified in those receiving methotrexate.
Individuals with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases Neutralising titres against wild-type SARS-CoV-2 were also
receiving therapeutic immunosuppression were excluded from attenuated in patients receiving methotrexate compared with
COVID-19 vaccine trials; therefore, characterisation of vaccine healthy controls but were preserved in those receiving
efficacy in this vulnerable population is important. Given the targeted biologics. Neutralising activity against the
roll-out of extended interval vaccination programmes, the B.1.1.7 variant was uniformly low among all participants,
effect of immunosuppression on the immunogenicity of a including healthy controls. By contrast, spike-specific T-cell
single dose of vaccine is of major public, and personal, health responses (including interferon-γ, IL-2, and IL-21 production)
importance. Methotrexate, but not targeted biological were induced in patients receiving methotrexate and all
therapies, can impair serological responses to influenza and classes of biologics, and were detectable at similar levels to
pneumococcal vaccines, but whether these drug-specific effects those in healthy controls.
can be generalised to COVID-19 vaccines is not known.
Implications of all the available evidence
We searched PubMed for peer-reviewed studies published up to
These findings indicate that seroconversion alone might not
April 16, 2021, using the terms “immunosuppression”,
adequately reflect vaccine immunogenicity in individuals with
“COVID-19”, “vaccination immune response”, and “vaccine
immune-mediated inflammatory diseases receiving therapeutic
immunogenicity”, with no language restrictions. Studies on
immunosuppression, and caution against routine use of
both humoral and cellular immunogenicity of the COVID-19
seroconversion data in isolation in clinical practice. When taking
vaccine in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory
into account functional humoral immunity and T-cell
diseases receiving immunosuppression had not been done.
responses, our data suggest that targeted biologics do not
Early evidence relating to a range of cancer therapies suggests
impair vaccine responses and provide some reassurance to this
that both humoral and cellular responses to the first dose of the
vulnerable population. Notably, although methotrexate
COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) are severely
attenuated humoral immunity, cellular responses were
attenuated.
preserved. Real-world pharmacovigilance studies will determine
Added value of this study how these data reflect clinical effectiveness. Findings in relation
We evaluated the effect of methotrexate and biologics to the B.1.1.7 variant indicate that those on
targeting tumour necrosis factor, interleukin (IL)-17, and IL-23 immunosuppression, in common with the general population,
on humoral and cellular immune responses to the first dose of might remain vulnerable after the first dose of BNT162b2,
the COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2 in patients with psoriasis. and therefore risk mitigation (in addition to vaccination)
Seroconversion rates were lower in patients receiving remains a key strategy in the pandemic.
immunosuppressants than in healthy controls, with the
inflammatory diseases receiving therapeutic immuno vaccinations is mediated by a complex interplay between
suppressants were advised to undertake stringent public innate, humoral, and cellular immunity, all of which are
health risk-mitigating measures (shielding) early in the likely to be required for effective and enduring defence
pandemic due to concerns over drug-related risks of severe against SARS-CoV-2.9 Thus, there is an urgent need to
illness from COVID-19.6 Shielding has led to reduced determine both functional antibody and antigen-specific
natural acquisition of protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2, cell-mediated immunogenicity to COVID-19 vaccines in
and substantial psychological, social, and economic costs. individuals receiving different types of therapeutic
Although mass vaccination promises a return to immunosuppression to inform and, if necessary, revisit
normality, there is a paucity of data on vaccine public health policy decisions. Assessment of immune
immunogenicity in patients with immune-mediated responses to a single dose of vaccine is particularly
inflammatory diseases receiving immunosuppressants pertinent given the roll-out of extended-interval vaccination
because they were excluded from trials of COVID-19 programmes in countries such as the UK to maximise
vaccines, including the now widely used BNT162b2 population coverage.
(Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine. This vaccine comprises a lipid- We studied patients with the immune-mediated
nanoparticle-formulated nucleoside-modified mRNA inflammatory disease psoriasis to address this gap in
encoding a full-length, stabilised SARS-CoV-2 spike knowledge, since therapeutic immunosuppression is
glycoprotein.7 Studies evaluating immunogenicity to generally prescribed as monotherapy, without concurrent
influenza and pneumococcal vaccines indicate that oral corticosteroids.10 We aimed to investigate the
methotrexate, but not targeted therapies such as effect of monotherapy with methotrexate, and biologics
TNF inhibitors, impairs humoral responses, based on targeting TNF, IL-17, and IL-23, on immunogenicity after
lower antibody titres in patients receiving this drug than in the first dose of BNT162b2. We sought to characterise
healthy controls.8 Successful host protection induced by both humoral and cellular immune responses.
summarised using descriptive statistics. Statistical methotrexate, and three patients on an IL-23 inhibitor)
imbalance across the treatment groups was calculated with from the final analysis on the basis of previous COVID-19
the Kruskal-Wallis or χ² test. The key exposure measure (appendix p 8) and ten individuals because they had been
was immunosuppressive treatment type, comprising immunised with the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. The
five mutually exclusive groups: patients receiving final analysis included 17 controls and 84 patients with
methotrexate, TNF inhibitors, IL-17 inhibitors, or psoriasis receiving monotherapy with methotrexate
IL-23 inhibitors, and healthy controls (individuals not (17 [20%] patients), TNF inhibitors (27 [32%]),
receiving immunosuppressive drugs). IL-17 inhibitors (15 [18%]), or IL-23 inhibitors (25 [30%]),
We tested two pre-determined hypotheses: that patients all without concurrent glucocorticoids (figure 1). All
taking methotrexate would have lower humoral, cellular, participants included in the analysis followed the study
or both humoral and cellular immunogenicity to the first schedule protocol.
dose of BNT162b2 compared with healthy controls; and The median age of participants was 43 years (IQR 31–52),
that patients taking methotrexate would have lower 56 (55%) participants were male, 45 (45%) were female,
humoral, cellular, or both humoral and cellular immuno and 85 (84%) were of White ethnicity (table 1). Among the
genicity to the first dose of BNT162b2 compared with 84 participants with psoriasis, the median duration of
patients taking targeted biological therapy (TNF inhibitors, psoriasis was 21 years (IQR 15–33), 20 (24%) had
IL-17 inhibitors, or IL-23 inhibitors). concurrent psoriatic arthritis, and the median body-mass
Comparisons were made using linear regression of index was 28·7 kg/m² (IQR 26·4–33·1). Adherence to
log-transformed immunogenicity measures, with robust immunosuppression therapy was confirmed with all
estimates of variance to derive 95% CIs and p values. A participants, and no participants reported pausing or
5% α level was used for significance testing. No correction stopping their immunosuppressants before or during
for multiple hypothesis testing was made. Correlations vaccination. The median dose of methotrexate was 15 mg
were derived using Pearson’s method. Data were (IQR 15–20) per week. The median duration of the current
analysed in Stata (version 16). immuno suppressive treatment was 3·3 years
(IQR 1·3–5·3), and participants in all study groups had
Role of the funding source well controlled psoriasis, as indicated by their baseline
The funder of the study had no role in study design, data disease severity. Baseline characteristics disaggregated by
collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of sex are shown in the appendix (p 4).
the manuscript. 63 (75%) of 84 patients with psoriasis receiving
immunosuppression therapy reported mild adverse
Results events within 28 days after the first dose of the BNT162b2
Between Jan 14 and April 4, 2021, 98 patients with vaccine, compared with 16 (94%) of 17 controls
psoriasis receiving immunosuppressive drugs and (appendix p 6). Adverse event data were missing for four
23 healthy volunteers (the control group) were recruited. patients. 17 (20%) patients and one (6%) healthy control
We excluded ten participants (six controls, one patient on reported no adverse effects, and no participants reported
17 healthy controls assessed 17 patients on methotrexate 27 patients on a TNF 15 patients on an IL-17 25 patients on an IL-23
for single-dose assessed for single-dose inhibitor assessed for inhibitor assessed for inhibitor assessed for
immunogenicity 28 days immunogenicity 28 days single-dose immunogenicity single-dose
after vaccination after vaccination with immunogenicity 28 days 28 days after vaccination immunogenicity 28 days
with BNT162b2 BNT162b2 after vaccination with with BNT162b2 after vaccination with
BNT162b2 BNT162b2
Healthy controls Patients on Patients on TNF Patients on IL-17 Patients on IL-23 Total (n=101) p value
(n=17) methotrexate inhibitors (n=27) inhibitors (n=15) inhibitors (n=25)
(n=17)
Age, years 34·0 (27·0–46·0) 48·0 (41·0–56·0) 36·0 (28·0–52·0) 45·0 (38·0–49·0) 50·0 (33·0–56·0) 43·0 (31·0–52·0) 0·053*
Sex ·· ·· ·· ·· ·· ·· 0·84†
Male 9 (53%) 11 (65%) 13 (48%) 8 (53%) 15 (60%) 56 (55%) ··
Female 8 (47%) 6 (35%) 14 (52%) 7 (47%) 10 (40%) 45 (45%) ··
Body-mass index, kg/m² 23·0 (21·5–30·5) 27·1 (26·4–29·7) 31·2 (26·2–39·4) 27·6 (25·1–30·9) 28·7 (27·0–33·1) 28·2 (25·1–32·7) 0·032*
Ethnicity ·· ·· ·· ·· ·· ·· 0·72*
White 14 (82%) 13 (76%) 24 (89%) 13 (87%) 21 (84%) 85 (84%) ··
Black 0 1 (6%) 0 0 0 1 (1%) ··
South Asian 3 (18%) 3 (18%) 3 (11%) 2 (13%) 3 (12%) 14 (14%) ··
Mixed 0 0 0 0 1 (4%) 1 (1%) ··
Disease severity measure (Psoriasis Area Severity Index13) ·· 2·2 (1·3–3·5) 1·1 (0·6–2) 0·6 (0–1·8) 1·2 (0–2·8) 1·2 (0·6–2·8)‡ 0·11†
Concomitant psoriatic arthritis ·· 2 (12%) 5 (19%) 8 (53%) 5 (20%) 20/84 (24%) 0·027*
Data are median (IQR), n (%), or n/N (%) unless otherwise specified. Statistical imbalance of the baseline characteristics across the treatment groups is presented by either the Kruskal-Wallis or χ² test.
IL=interleukin. TNF=tumour necrosis factor. *χ² test. †Kruskal-Wallis test. ‡Median for the 84 patients with psoriasis.
A B
104 104
103 103
102 102
101 101
10 10
Control group Methotrexate TNF inhibitor IL-17 inhibitor IL-23 inhibitor Control group Methotrexate TNF inhibitor IL-17 inhibitor IL-23 inhibitor
(n=17) group group group group (n=17) group group group group
(n=15) (n=24) (n=15) (n=23) (n=15) (n=24) (n=15) (n=23)
C
Control group (n=17) Methotrexate group (n=15) TNF inhibitor group (n=24) IL-17 inhibitor group (n=15) IL-23 inhibitor group (n=23)
r=0·57, 95% CI 0·11 to 0·83 r=0·79, 95% CI 0·46 to 0·93 r=0·87, 95% CI 0·72 to 0·95 r=0·51, 95% CI –0·00 to 0·81 r=0·91, 95% CI 0·81 to 0·96
105
Wild-type SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation
104
titre (ID50 [log])
103
102
101
10
r=0·31, 95% CI –0·22 to 0·70 r=0·89, 95% CI 0·67 to 0·97 r=0·90, 95% CI 0·75 to 0·96 r=0·51, 95% CI –0·06 to 0·83 r=0·92, 95% CI 0·83 to 0·97
105
B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 variant neutralisation
104
titre (ID50 [log])
103
102
101
10
101 102 103 104 105 101 102 103 104 105 101 102 103 104 105 101 102 103 104 105 101 102 103 104 105
Spike-specific IgG (EC50 [dilution]) Spike-specific IgG (EC50 [dilution]) Spike-specific IgG (EC50 [dilution]) Spike-specific IgG (EC50 [dilution]) Spike-specific IgG (EC50 [dilution])
TNF inhibitors, IL-17 inhibitors, or IL-23 inhibitors. vaccine immunogenicity. We show that seroconversion
Our homogeneous cohort of individuals receiving and neutralising capacity against the wild-type SARS-
immunosuppressant monotherapy for psoriasis, without CoV-2 strain is lower in patients receiving methotrexate
concurrent corticosteroids, has enabled the interrogation than in those receiving targeted biological therapy or
of drug-specific (rather than disease-specific) effects on healthy controls. Neutralising titres against the
IL-12/23p40 inhibitor.
Interferon-γ
(cytokine-secreting cells per to total spike peptide pools in the majority of controls
1·0
10⁶ PBMCs) and humoral IL-17A and IL-22
0·8 and patients receiving immunosuppressants, with no
immune responses as
determined by ELISA and Spike-specific IgG EC50 0·6 attenuation in cellular immunity found in those
neutralisation assays. 0·4 receiving methotrexate or targeted biological mono
Wild-type ID50
The colour scale indicates the therapy compared with controls. Furthermore, T cells
0·2
Spearman R values; all p values B1.1.7 ID50
0 from patients receiving methotrexate or targeted
are less than 0·01. EC50=half
maximal effective IL-2
–0·2
biologics who were serological non-responders
concentration. IL-21 –0·4
demonstrated T-cell reactivities following the vaccine,
ID50=50% inhibitory dilution. thus highlighting a disparity between humoral and
Interferon-γ –0·6
IL=interleukin.
PBMCs=peripheral blood Combined interferon-γ, –0·8
cellular responses.
mononuclear cells. IL-2, and IL-21 –1·0
The true in-vitro correlates of immune protection after
TNF=tumour necrosis factor. vaccination, and the relative importance of humoral and
cellular immunity, are unknown. So far research on neutralisation titres against B.1.1.7 after vaccination in
responses to the COVID-19 vaccine has overwhelmingly both controls and patients with psoriasis receiving
focused on serological responses, and there is a wide immunosuppressants, which underlines the need for
variation in laboratory methodology used (limiting ongoing risk mitigating measures following the first dose
comparability of assays) and no indication of the level of of vaccine. Emerging evidence indicates that neutralising
antibody required for protection (ie, clinical effective antibody titres against B.1.1.7 generated by vaccination
ness). Furthermore, the importance of cellular immune might not correlate with clinical vaccine effectiveness
responses in preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the against symptomatic COVID-19,35 so the contribution of
context of diminished humoral immunity is still unclear. cellular immunity (T-cell and natural killer cell responses
Vaccine-induced cell-mediated immunity might be a better and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity or
surrogate than humoral immunity for protection against phagocytosis) in vaccine-induced protection against new
respiratory viruses such as influenza in patients with lineages of SARS-CoV-2 warrants investigation.
compromised immune responses.23,24 Cellular immunity Our study addresses several limitations of existing
has been shown to be crucial for clearance of SARS-CoV-2 datasets. We have interrogated the effect of different
and recovery from COVID-19.25,26 SARS-CoV-2-specific immunosuppressant treatment types on both humoral
CD4 and CD8 T-cell responses were observed in patients and cellular vaccine immune responses in a relatively
with COVID-19,27 and memory B cells and Tfh cells were young and homogeneous study cohort. Our study has
identified following recovery. T cells recognising peptides limited confounding since participants had the same
derived from the spike glycoprotein, nucleoprotein, and underlying immune-mediated inflammatory disease
matrix of SARS-CoV-2 were found in the convalescent (psoriasis) with low to absent disease activity, and they
phase, and low numbers of T cells, T-cell exhaustion, and were not receiving combination therapy with other
increased levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines are immunosuppressants or glucocorticoids. The major
hallmarks of severe COVID-19. Thus, cellular responses classes of biologics used across immune-mediated
after vaccination might affect overall vaccine efficacy inflammatory diseases were included, in addition to
against SARS-CoV-2. Given the known effect of the widely prescribed first-line immunosuppressant
methotrexate and biological therapies on T-cell methotrexate. Limitations of our study include a limited
proliferation, activation, and cytokine production, our numbers of participants and absence of immunogenicity
data on cell-mediated responses after vaccination are data following the second (booster) dose of vaccine.
encouraging. Although the number of participants was small, study
Our findings support existing data showing that groups were well matched with respect to baseline
methotrexate attenuates humoral immunity; metho demographics and multiple components of the immune
trexate is used therapeutically to prevent anti-drug response are profiled, which will inform future larger-scale
antibody development and it decreases vaccine serological studies. Longer-term data are not presented since this
responses to seasonal influenza (particularly novel strains) interim analysis focused on characterising immune
and pneumococcus.8,28 Trial data in rheumatoid arthritis efficacy of the priming dose of the vaccine. Encouragingly,
indicate that temporary methotrexate discontinuation for the robust humoral and cellular responses observed
2 weeks after influenza vaccination might increase sero following the first dose of BNT162b2 in the four patients
protection rates compared with continuing methotrexate.29 receiving immunosuppression with past SARS-CoV-2
However, only humoral immunogenicity was assessed, infection indicates infection priming of immune
and the clinical significance of higher antibody responses responses. This is in keeping with observations in
on the incidence of influenza infections is unknown. immunocompetent individuals.11 Important follow-up
Registry data suggest that methotrexate or biological immunogenicity data following the (extended 12 week
monotherapy for immune-mediated inflammatory interval) booster dose of vaccine in our infection-naive
diseases is not associated with adverse COVID-19 participants receiving immunsuppression are anticipated.
outcomes,30,31 so it is unclear whether the reduced humoral While global mass COVID-19 vaccination programmes
responses to BNT162b2 in the context of methotrexate are underway, there remains concern over vaccine efficacy
translate to an increased SARS-CoV-2 infection risk. in immunosuppressed patients, including against novel
These data also highlight variation in vaccine immuno SARS-CoV-2 variants that threaten immune escape.
genicity against different variants of SARS-CoV-2. Novel Measures of the immune response that correspond to risk
variants harbouring mutations in the spike glycoprotein of COVID-19 after vaccination are currently unknown and
might evade vaccine-induced protective immunity, emerging research in immunosuppressed patients has
and the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant harbouring focused on serological responses alone. We show
nine amino acid changes in the spike protein has been that serological responses are not representative of the
shown to have increased resistance to neutralisation by complex immune response to vaccines, and thus might
antibodies generated following vaccination or have limited clinical utility when considered in isolation.
infection.32–34 While assessing responses following the Although our data indicating preserved cellular
second vaccine dose is vital, we identified low immunogenicity across biological classes and
methotrexate, independent of neutralising activity, are Research Trust to AR. CG was supported by the MRC-KCL Doctoral
reassuring, ongoing pharmacovigilance studies will Training Partnership in Biomedical Sciences (MR/N013700/1). SKM is
funded by an MRC Clinical Academic Research Partnership award
determine whether this finding translates into clinical (MR/T02383X/1).
effectiveness of vaccines. The magnitude and quality of
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Celgene, Eli Lilly, Janssen-Cilag, Novartis, Sanofi, and UCB, outside the 10 Griffiths CEM, Armstrong AW, Gudjonsson JE, Barker JNWN.
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and consultancy fees from GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, UCB, and but enhanced cellular responses after ChAdOx1. SSRN 2021;
Quell Therapeutics, outside the submitted work. All other authors published online April 13. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3825573
(preprint).
declare no competing interests.
13 Mahil SK, Wilson N, Dand N, et al. Psoriasis treat to target: defining
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The authors are happy to share data on request to the corresponding based cohort study (the British Association of Dermatologists
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