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Mit El 75 001WP 04240469
Mit El 75 001WP 04240469
Mit El 75 001WP 04240469
consumers.
D.J.B.
M.L.B.
-1-
EQUIPMENT NEEDS
I. INTRODUCTION
the service area. The size and complexity of an electric power system
make its careful planning important. The power company must design
a system which supplies electric power to anyone desiring it. When
designing the system, the power company has many factors to consider,
including the size, location, and duration of the demand.
Modeling the planned power system assists the system planner and
the economist alike with their tasks. With a properly constructed model,
the demand for electric power and the equipment needed to supply the
power may be forecasted given different assumptions and policy alternatives.
Simulations through time help determine the long-range effects of a par-
ticular action. As part of a project to build a large engineering-eco-
1
nometric simulation model for electricity supply and demand , we have
5. Number of meters
Columbia were aggregated into one region since some data sources did
not separate figures for the two areas. Also, Alaska and Hawaii were
excluded since the availability of data was not a certainty, and
Nebraska was excluded since no privately-owned utilities operate in
that state.
The present study raises but does not attempt to answer the
question of whether electric utilities attempt to minimize costs.
Perhaps the reason why the equipment needs of some states were over-
estimated while the needs of others were underestimated is that, in
the former set of states the utilities optimize more than they do in
the later set of states. The assumption that utilities across the
nation optimize to approximately the same degree preserves the
validity of this study.
-4-
maximum voltage ratings; one line may be rated at 230 kilovolts while
another may have a rating of 765 Kv.
line differ from circuit miles in that when several lines are on one
such as giga-watt miles which accounts for the capacity of the lines
might be better, such data were neither available nor readily derivable
within acceptable tolerances.
a kilowatt for large light and power consumption. If demard is held cons-
-5-
lant, one would expect the area of the state to affect the need for
Transmission line. One can see that to transmit the same amount of
energy to a larier area will require more structure miles of trans-
mission line. Jne also might expect areas with a higher load density
to need less line since the power transmitted could be carried in
higher capacity lines. Also, areas which have higher load densities
might be able to take greater advantage of noncoincident peaks. Load
density may also be acting as a proxy for population concentration or
industrial concentration, both of which should permit utilities in
high load density areas to reduce the line needed through economies
of scale.
A regression with residential and small light and power sales separated
from large light and power sales yielded coefficients within 5 o one
another and insignificantly different.
the level of demand for power, assuming that the ratio of the peak
demand to the mean demand is constant for the different states for a
particular class of consumers. The expectation was that the ratio
for the residential and small light and power users was different from
that for large light and power users. The results:
The coefficients for the two consumer classes were significantly different.
(t = 2.51)
-7-
Regressing residential and small light and power demand and area
-8-
(40.2) (2.45)
When large light and power demand was added to the right-hand side of
the equation, its coefficient was very small and insignificant.
light and power users on the average have the same ratio of peak demand
to mean demand from area to area. Still, to account for rural areas,
one might expect to find that, given a constant demand, the larger the
area, the more substation capacity needed, since in a :ore sparsely
populated region each line transformer would be serving fewer customers.
Large light and power demand, however, should be irrelevant. The results:
2 = .937
F(2,326) = 2412
C. Meter Needs
V. IMPLICATIONS
power user.
-11-
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