ZOE COVID Study

Daily COVID Infections Report

21 July 2021

Analysis by ZOE and King's College London

covid.joinzoe.com
Contents
• 1. Incidence estimates
◦ 1.1. Incidence map and headline figures
◦ 1.2. Daily new cases in the UK and England
◦ 1.3. Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
• 2. Prevalence estimates
◦ 2.1. Prevalence map and headline figures
◦ 2.2. Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
◦ 2.3. Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.4. Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.5. Daily prevalence rates by age group
• 4. Local authorities' watch list
• 5. Raw figures
◦ 5.1. Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
◦ 5.3. Newly sick users by day (% of active users)
◦ 5.4. Positive test results by day (% of invited test takers)
◦ 5.5. Location of positive PCR tests results
• 6. Changelog
 Incidence estimates
(based on 2 weeks up to 17 July 2021)

Please note: The ZOE team is currently working on an important update to the ZOE
COVID Study incidence methodology to account for the low proportion of unvaccinated
contributors in the cohort.

We will release the update and all the details on Wednesday 21 July 2021.

If you have any questions about the methodology updates, please get in touch with:
joan@joinzoe.com.
Daily new cases of symptomatic COVID
We estimate there have been 35573 daily new cases of symptomatic COVID in the UK on
average over the two weeks up to 17 July 2021. This is based on the number of newly
symptomatic app users per day, and the proportion of these who give positive swab
tests.

Daily new cases of COVID per 100,000 (17 July 2021) [1]

Daily new cases per 100,000 R

England 52 - 60 1.1 (1.0 - 1.1)
Scotland 29 - 70 0.8 (0.6 - 0.9)
Wales 21 - 54 1.0 (0.9 - 1.2)
South East 33 - 46 1.1 (1.0 - 1.3)
London 73 - 99 1.1 (1.0 - 1.3)
East of England 40 - 61 1.1 (1.0 - 1.3)
South West 37 - 57 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
North West 60 - 88 1.0 (1.0 - 1.1)
Yorkshire and The Humber 40 - 69 0.9 (0.8 - 1.0)
West Midlands 38 - 66 1.0 (0.9 - 1.1)
East Midlands 39 - 69 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
North East 69 - 120 1.0 (0.8 - 1.1)
Northern Ireland 7 - 94 0.4 (0.0 - 0.8)

[1] Please refer to the publication by Varsavsky at al. (2020) for details on how R values are calculated
Daily new cases of COVID in UK and England
Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
 Prevalence estimates
(up to 20 July 2021)

Please note: The ZOE team is currently working on an important update to the ZOE
COVID Study incidence methodology to account for the low proportion of unvaccinated
contributors. As the prevalence estimates use the incidence figures, these figures will
also be updated after the change.

We will release the update and all the details on Wednesday 21 July 2021.

If you have any questions, please get in touch with: joan@joinzoe.com.

Daily active cases of symptomatic COVID
The COVID active cases (prevalence) or Symptomatic COVID estimate is based on the
most recent report for each contributor that logged during the previous 7 days.

Estimated rate of people with Symptomatic COVID

Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
Prevalence rates by nation and administrative region

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)

East Midlands 28458 598 1 in 167

East of England 34372 560 1 in 178
London 85231 963 1 in 104
North East 27070 1027 1 in 97
North West 68840 952 1 in 105
(*) Northern Ireland 16315 874 1 in 114
Scotland 47738 886 1 in 113
South East 40889 452 1 in 221
South West 30358 549 1 in 182
Wales 13893 447 1 in 224
West Midlands 38589 660 1 in 152
Yorkshire and The Humber 47641 877 1 in 114
TOTAL 479396 728 1 in 137
(*) The number of respondents in Northern Ireland is low to generate a good estimate.

Prevalence rates by socioeconomic status (IMD)

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
LOW (1st - 3rd decile ) 182241 916 1 in 109
MEDIUM (4th - 6th decile) 144409 720 1 in 139
HIGH (7th - 10th decile) 152746 590 1 in 169
TOTAL 479396 728 1 in 137
Prevalence rates by age group

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
Age 0 - 9 35391 440 1 in 228
Age 10 - 19 105139 1398 1 in 72
Age 20 - 29 158967 1824 1 in 55
Age 30 - 39 86061 974 1 in 103
Age 40 - 49 51962 611 1 in 164
Age 50 - 59 27856 311 1 in 322
Age 60 - 69 9046 128 1 in 781
Age 70 - 79 3593 66 1 in 1526
Age 80 - 89 1381 51 1 in 1954
TOTAL 479396 728 1 in 137
Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by age group
Last 3 months

Last month
Local Authorities’ Watch list for Active Cases of COVID-19
The following are UTLA regions with the highest estimates of prevalence rates averaged
over the past week. Note that the local authorities' watchlist is intended to be an early
indication system of areas where cases might be rising, but local authority-level
prevalence estimates might be volatile due to the limited amount of responders and
positive cases in the area.
Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
London Hackney
● 1531 (1151 - 2034) 3025

Hammersmith and Fulham

● 1264 (893 - 1785) 2477

Islington
● 1289 (974 - 1702) 3754

Lambeth
▲ 1180 (925 - 1505) 5401

Southwark
▲ 1195 (925 - 1543) 4818

Tower Hamlets
● 1471 (1055 - 2049) 2309

Wandsworth
● 1161 (923 - 1459) 6213

North East Darlington

● 1178 (689 - 2009) 1096

Redcar and Cleveland

● 1531 (905 - 2580) 878

Stockton-on-Tees
▲ 1668 (1130 - 2456) 1481

North West Bury

▼ 1178 (762 - 1816) 1683

Halton
▼ 1945 (1200 - 3138) 820

Liverpool
● 1550 (1163 - 2064) 2948

Manchester
▼ 1311 (975 - 1760) 3287

St. Helens
● 1462 (907 - 2348) 1122

Scotland Aberdeen City

▼ 1632 (1136 - 2340) 1752

Dumfries and Galloway

▼ 2601 (1819 - 3707) 1121

Falkirk
● 2260 (1480 - 3436) 922

Glasgow City
● 1360 (1032 - 1791) 3637

North Ayrshire
● 1160 (606 - 2210) 753
 Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
Perth and Kinross
▼ 1297 (864 - 1943) 1755

Scottish Borders
● 1297 (809 - 2075) 1291

West Midlands Stoke-on-Trent

▼ 1627 (1013 - 2603) 1021

Yorkshire and The Humber North East Lincolnshire

● 2426 (1618 - 3623) 936

Rotherham
● 1216 (774 - 1906) 1508

▲ implies an increase in prevalence in the past week

● implies that prevalence has been fairly constant in the past week
▼ implies a decrease in prevalence in the past week
 Raw Figures
(up to 20 July 2021)
Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
This section reports raw data by day, with no temporal averaging or rebalancing/
extrapolation to the UK population.
# users who logged # users who logged % users who logged
feeling well feeling unwell feeling unwell

East Midlands 31263 976 3.03 %

East of England 57940 1804 3.02 %
London 61431 2916 4.53 %
North East 14046 553 3.79 %
North West 39662 1379 3.36 %
Northern Ireland 2578 102 3.81 %
Scotland 27832 860 3.00 %
South East 106746 3170 2.88 %
South West 58525 1829 3.03 %
Wales 23881 615 2.51 %
West Midlands 31202 969 3.01 %
Yorkshire and The Humber 32027 1175 3.54 %
TOTAL 487133 16348 3.25 %
Newly sick users by day (% of active users)
Active users are those who have been logging regularly in the past 10 days. Newly sick
users are active users who haven't reported any symptoms for at least 9 days before
reporting one of the following symptoms:

Persistent cough, Shortness of breath, Fever, Fatigue, Skipped meals, Hoarse voice, Sore
throat, Delirium, Chest pain, Abdominal pain, Diarrhoea, Headache, Unusual muscle pains,
Loss of smell, Chills or shivers, Eye soreness, Nausea, Dizzy light headed, Red welts on
face or lips, Blisters on feet or any other symptom that makes them feel unwell

Positive test results by day (% of invited test takers)

Location of positive PCR tests results
Changelog
• [...]
• 2021-05-12: Changed methodology to adjust for vaccination status (see blog post)
• 2021-05-26: Updated infection report format and included contents and changelog
pages
• 2021-06-08: Incidence figures are now smoothed over a 7-day rolling window
• 2021-06-09: Included UK incidence trend by vaccination status
• 2021-06-10: Fixed bug in the local authorities' watch list which prevented authorities
with rates above 1000 per 100k to be displayed.
• 2021-06-17: Changes in the local authorities' watch list: Included confidence
intervals around the prevalence estimate. Reformatted the table. Extra paragraph
explaining that the watchlist is an early indication system.
• 2021-07-16: Removed incidence graph by vaccination status from the report as
there are very few unvaccinated users in the infection survey, the Confidence
Intervals are very wide and the trend for unvaccinated people is no longer
representative.