ZOE COVID Study

Daily COVID Infections Report

18 June 2021

Analysis by ZOE and King's College London

covid.joinzoe.com
Contents
• 1. Incidence estimates
◦ 1.1. Incidence map and headline figures
◦ 1.2. Daily new cases in the UK by vaccination status
◦ 1.3. Daily new cases in the UK and England
◦ 1.4. Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
• 2. Prevalence estimates
◦ 2.1. Prevalence map and headline figures
◦ 2.2. Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
◦ 2.3. Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.4. Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.5. Daily prevalence rates by age group
• 4. Local authorities' watch list
• 5. Raw figures
◦ 5.1. Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
◦ 5.3. Newly sick users by day (% of active users)
◦ 5.4. Positive test results by day (% of invited test takers)
◦ 5.5. Location of positive PCR tests results
• 6. Changelog
 Incidence estimates
(based on 2 weeks up to 14 June 2021)
Daily new cases of symptomatic COVID
We estimate there have been 16479 daily new cases of symptomatic COVID in the UK on
average over the two weeks up to 14 June 2021. This is based on the number of newly
symptomatic app users per day, and the proportion of these who give positive swab
tests.

Daily new cases of COVID per 100,000 (14 June 2021) [1]

Daily new cases per 100,000 R

England 19 - 28 1.2 (1.0 - 1.3)
Scotland 29 - 146 1.1 (1.0 - 1.3)
Wales 4 - 39 1.1 (0.9 - 1.4)
South East 9 - 23 1.0 (0.9 - 1.2)
London 15 - 38 1.1 (1.0 - 1.3)
East of England 7 - 27 1.2 (1.0 - 1.4)
South West 11 - 35 1.5 (1.2 - 1.9)
North West 38 - 82 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
Yorkshire and The Humber 19 - 62 1.2 (1.0 - 1.4)
East Midlands 7 - 39 1.1 (0.9 - 1.3)
West Midlands 16 - 58 1.4 (1.1 - 1.8)
North East 6 - 58 1.3 (1.0 - 1.7)
Northern Ireland 0 - 136 1.3 (0.0 - 3.5)

[1] Please refer to the publication by Varsavsky at al. (2020) for details on how R values are calculated
Daily new cases of COVID in UK by vaccination status
Daily new cases of COVID in UK and England
Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
Prevalence estimates
(up to 17 June 2021)
Daily active cases of symptomatic COVID
The COVID active cases (prevalence) or Symptomatic COVID estimate is based on the
most recent report for each contributor that logged during the previous 7 days.

Estimated rate of people with Symptomatic COVID

Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
Prevalence rates by nation and administrative region

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)

East Midlands 6646 140 1 in 717

East of England 9286 151 1 in 661
London 24038 272 1 in 368
North East 10481 398 1 in 251
North West 51184 708 1 in 141
(*) Northern Ireland Estimate not available Estimate not available Estimate not available
Scotland 37102 689 1 in 145
South East 16929 187 1 in 534
South West 8898 161 1 in 622
Wales 4213 136 1 in 738
West Midlands 20475 350 1 in 286
Yorkshire and The Humber 15524 286 1 in 350
TOTAL 204776 320 1 in 312
(*) The number of respondents in Northern Ireland is low to generate a good estimate.

Prevalence rates by socioeconomic status (IMD)

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
LOW (1st - 3rd decile ) 80721 406 1 in 247
MEDIUM (4th - 6th decile) 59976 299 1 in 334
HIGH (7th - 10th decile) 64079 248 1 in 404
TOTAL 204776 311 1 in 321
Prevalence rates by age group

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
Age 0 - 9 17431 216 1 in 462
Age 10 - 19 41840 557 1 in 180
Age 20 - 29 83479 958 1 in 104
Age 30 - 39 27009 306 1 in 327
Age 40 - 49 20294 239 1 in 419
Age 50 - 59 9601 107 1 in 934
Age 60 - 69 2873 41 1 in 2459
Age 70 - 79 1443 26 1 in 3802
Age 80 - 89 806 30 1 in 3348
TOTAL 204776 311 1 in 321
Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by age group
Last 3 months

Last month
Local Authorities’ Watch list for Active Cases of COVID-19
The following are UTLA regions with the highest estimates of prevalence rates averaged
over the past week. Note that the local authorities' watchlist is intended to be an early
indication system of areas where cases might be rising, but local authority-level
prevalence estimates might be volatile due to the limited amount of responders and
positive cases in the area.
Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
East of England Luton
▼ 724 (327 - 1595) 796

London Hillingdon
● 887 (587 - 1337) 2499

Kensington and Chelsea

● 592 (320 - 1093) 1654

North East Newcastle upon Tyne

● 602 (381 - 949) 2997

North West Bolton

▼ 1557 (1077 - 2247) 1775

Bury
● 712 (413 - 1227) 1761

Cumbria
● 654 (488 - 876) 6770

Lancashire
● 765 (622 - 940) 11682

Liverpool
▲ 703 (459 - 1073) 2971

Manchester
▲ 1073 (779 - 1476) 3438

Rochdale
▼ 1189 (692 - 2034) 1072

Salford
● 1372 (893 - 2103) 1482

Stockport
▲ 817 (582 - 1147) 4001

Scotland City of Edinburgh

▲ 891 (710 - 1117) 8288

Dundee City
▲ 1434 (864 - 2371) 1013

East Lothian
● 530 (270 - 1038) 1533

East Renfrewshire
▲ 998 (565 - 1756) 1151

Glasgow City
▲ 611 (406 - 921) 3664

Midlothian
● 558 (235 - 1318) 864

North Ayrshire
▼ 1331 (733 - 2404) 783
 Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
Perth and Kinross
▼ 1166 (765 - 1774) 1813

Renfrewshire
● 1376 (866 - 2180) 1267

South Ayrshire
● 1056 (567 - 1956) 908

West Midlands Wolverhampton

● 537 (231 - 1243) 947

Yorkshire and The Humber Leeds

▲ 533 (398 - 715) 8274

▲ implies an increase in prevalence in the past week

● implies that prevalence has been fairly constant in the past week
▼ implies a decrease in prevalence in the past week
 Raw Figures
(up to 17 June 2021)
Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
This section reports raw data by day, with no temporal averaging or rebalancing/
extrapolation to the UK population.
# users who logged # users who logged % users who logged
feeling well feeling unwell feeling unwell

East Midlands 32528 901 2.70 %

East of England 60744 1552 2.49 %
London 63705 2393 3.62 %
North East 14469 435 2.92 %
North West 41699 1316 3.06 %
Northern Ireland 2728 94 3.33 %
Scotland 28511 960 3.26 %
South East 112643 2841 2.46 %
South West 60426 1602 2.58 %
Wales 25045 701 2.72 %
West Midlands 32425 862 2.59 %
Yorkshire and The Humber 33364 1054 3.06 %
TOTAL 508287 14711 2.81 %
Newly sick users by day (% of active users)
Active users are those who have been logging regularly in the past 10 days. Newly sick
users are active users who haven't reported any symptoms for at least 9 days before
reporting one of the following symptoms:

Persistent cough, Shortness of breath, Fever, Fatigue, Skipped meals, Hoarse voice, Sore
throat, Delirium, Chest pain, Abdominal pain, Diarrhoea, Headache, Unusual muscle pains,
Loss of smell, Chills or shivers, Eye soreness, Nausea, Dizzy light headed, Red welts on
face or lips, Blisters on feet or any other symptom that makes them feel unwell

Positive test results by day (% of invited test takers)

Location of positive PCR tests results
Changelog
• [...]
• 2021-05-12: Changed methodology to adjust for vaccination status (see blog post)
• 2021-05-26: Updated infection report format and included contents and changelog
pages
• 2021-06-08: Incidence figures are now smoothed over a 7-day rolling window
• 2021-06-09: Included UK incidence trend by vaccination status
• 2021-06-10: Fixed bug in the local authorities' watch list which prevented authorities
with rates above 1000 per 100k to be displayed.
• 2021-06-17: Changes in the local authorities' watch list: Included confidence
intervals around the prevalence estimate. Reformatted the table. Extra paragraph
explaining that the watchlist is an early indication system.