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Russia has launched its


war in Ukraine
Putin declared a “special military
operation” in Ukraine, and Kyiv
has confirmed the start of
hostilities in a devastating new
chapter for Europe.
By Jen Kirby on February 23, 2022 11:42 pm

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives comments to the


media on February 22, 2022. Sergei Guneyev\TASS via
Getty Images

Russia’s long-looming invasion of Ukraine


has officially begun.

Russian President Vladimir Putin


announced Thursday morning local time
that he is launching a “special military
operation” in Ukraine, a move that was
followed up by reports of explosions around
cities, including Kharkiv in eastern
Ukraine, and the capital, Kyiv.

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The Ukrainian foreign minister also


confirmed that “Putin has just launched a
full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peaceful
Ukrainian cities are under strike.”

Putin’s attempt to redraw the map of


Europe could lead to the most devastating
conflict on the continent since World War II.
It could cost thousands of civilian lives and
create hundreds of thousands of refugees
fleeing the violence in Ukraine.

Putin’s declaration came while the United


Nations Security Council held a special
session in New York on the Ukraine crisis,
and bombing began shortly thereafter,
according to multiple news reports. In his
address, Putin claimed “to defend people
who for eight years are suffering
persecution and genocide by the Kyiv
regime,” a reference to a false claim about
the government in Ukraine. Putin claimed
that the Russian military seeks
“demilitarization and denazification” but not
occupation. He demanded Ukraine lay
down its weapons or be “responsible for
bloodshed.”

Exactly what’s happening on the ground in


Ukraine is hard to know. Russia has already
used misinformation tactics and will likely
jam up local communications. But it’s hard
to interpret what Putin said as anything
other than a declaration of war.

The tension over Ukraine has been building


for months, but escalated quickly this
week, when, on Monday, Putin delivered an
hour-long and combative speech that
essentially denied Ukrainian statehood.
He recognized the independence of two
breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine
where Moscow has backed separatists
since 2014, and sent so-called
peacekeeping forces into the region. As
experts said, that was likely the beginning,
not the end, setting the stage for a much
larger conflict.

Putin’s escalation comes after the United


States warned, again and again, that a
larger invasion by Putin was imminent,
and after the US and its European allies
imposed significant — but far from all-
encompassing — sanctions on Moscow.

“President Putin has chosen a


premeditated war that will bring a
catastrophic loss of life and human
suffering,” President Joe Biden said in a
statement following Putin’s announcement.
“Russia alone is responsible for the death
and destruction this attack will bring, and
the United States and its Allies and
partners will respond in a united and
decisive way. The world will hold Russia
accountable.”

But Ukraine — and the world — is in a


perilous and unpredictable moment. Hours
before Putin’s announcement, Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered an
impassioned speech against war, one
directed to a Russian audience, as a final
plea: “War takes away guarantees for
everyone,” he said. “No one will have any
kind of guarantees of security. And who will
suffer from that the most? People.”

How the world got here

Over the past few months, Putin had


amassed close to 190,000 troops near the
Ukrainian border, a force that military
analysts said was prepared and ready to
launch an invasion.

Ukraine is also a larger stage for Russia to


try to reassert its influence in Europe and
the world, and for Putin to cement his
legacy, and reclaim a semblance of the
Russian empire that was lost after the fall of
the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War.

Last year, Russia presented the US with a


list of demands, some of which were
nonstarters for the United States and its
allies in the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO). Putin demanded that
NATO stop its eastward expansion and deny
membership to Ukraine, and also made
other demands for “security guarantees”
around NATO.

Ukraine is the fourth-largest recipient of


military funding from the US, and
intelligence cooperation between the two
countries has deepened in response to
threats from Russia. But Ukraine’s NATO
membership is not at all an imminent
possibility. Still, Moscow’s demand was
largely seen as a nonstarter by the West, as
NATO’s open-door policy says sovereign
countries can choose their own security
alliances.

Though Putin has continued to tout the


threat of NATO, his speech on Monday
revealed other motivations to act. He does
not see the government in Ukraine as
legitimate: “Ukraine actually never had
stable traditions of real statehood,” Putin
said.

As experts noted, it is difficult to square


that speech with any sort of realistic
diplomatic outcome to avert conflict — for
Putin, regime change in Ukraine appeared
to be the underlying goal.

Putin’s speech Monday was essentially a


confession that this wasn’t really about
NATO, said Dan Baer, the acting director of
the Europe Program at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace and a
former ambassador to the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe. “It was
about that he doesn’t think Ukraine has a
right to exist as a free country,” he said
before Putin’s escalation Wednesday night.

What we know so far

Whatever Putin has unleashed is still


unfolding. The Ukrainian interior minister
has told CNN that the “invasion has
begun.” There are reports of explosions
around major cities, something Ukraine’s
foreign minister confirmed.

Reuters reported Russian troops landing in


two Ukrainian cities, Mariupol and Odessa,
and a Ukrainian official confirmed to
MSNBC that troops were in at least one of
them.

But the start of wars are messy and chaotic


and confusing, often deliberately so. There
is not a lot that we know right now, and we
may not know much more for some time.

The United States has said it will not involve


troops in any Ukrainian conflict, though the
US has added troops to NATO’s eastern
flank. That leaves sanctions as the main
tool against Russia, and the US and its
European allies are likely to place another
round of much tougher sanctions on Russia
following a first round of penalties that did
little to deter Moscow.

Zelensky convened a Ukraine security


council meeting in the early hours of
Thursday to impose martial law, according
to news reports. In a video, President
Zelensky urged Ukrainians not to panic. “We
are ready for everything. We will defeat
everyone. Because we are Ukraine.”

What this all means for Ukraine, for Europe,


for all the world is still unclear. The Biden
administration has warned that a war in
Ukraine could kill as many as 50,000
civilians, and spark a refugee crisis that
forces 1 million to 5 million people to flee.
This comes with a cost for Russia too, as it
could face thousands of casualties. A
pathway out of this crisis may still come
with incalculable and unpredictable costs
for Ukraine, and for Russia.

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