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ICICI Securities LIC Initiating Coverage Note
ICICI Securities LIC Initiating Coverage Note
ICICI Securities LIC Initiating Coverage Note
2
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
TABLE OF CONTENT
Investment thesis – strong business drivers make current (0.7x FY22 P/EV)
valuations attractive ........................................................................................................ 4
Indian market is underinsured; more stark from lens of sum assured ............................ 4
Market leader with business moats............................................................................... 10
Attractive valuations ...................................................................................................... 11
Expect EV/VNB of Rs6.2trn/98bn in FY24E ................................................................. 12
LIC has inherent strengths in the form of size, distribution, brand and growth
optionalities .................................................................................................................... 16
LIC has the highest market share in terms of premiums .............................................. 16
Par-heavy individual mix gives lower interest rate risk, lower new business strain ...... 17
LIC’s cross-cyclical product mix caters to diverse consumer needs ............................ 19
LIC offers competitive pricing in its term and annuity products .................................... 22
LIC – a trusted brand with customer-centric business model ....................................... 24
Distribution via individual agents is the key strength for LIC ........................................ 24
Bancassurance is a huge opportunity for LIC ............................................................... 27
Case study: Tata AIA – good banca mix despite no bank parentage, LIC can also do the
same.............................................................................................................................. 30
LIC’s cost structure is second lowest amongst top listed peers ................................... 31
AUM composition: Government securities constitute >60% of AUM as of Q1FY23 .... 33
Persistency improved in Q1FY23; there is room for improvement ............................... 34
LIC’s reinsurers enjoy strong rating from top rating agencies. ..................................... 36
Digital initiatives undertaken by LIC will ensure business competitiveness ................. 37
Company strategy: Building on available growth levers for volume and margin... 39
Diversify product mix by increasing the contribution of non-participating portfolio ....... 39
Reinforce omni-channel distribution network and increase its productivity .................. 40
Maximise value creation through commercial and financial levers ............................... 40
Capitalise on growth opportunities in the Indian life insurance sector .......................... 41
Company Overview ........................................................................................................ 42
Subsidiaries and associates ......................................................................................... 42
Details on IDBI Bank, now an associate of LIC ............................................................ 42
Board of directors .......................................................................................................... 43
Management organisation structure ............................................................................. 43
Key risks ......................................................................................................................... 45
Financial summary ........................................................................................................ 48
Index of Tables and Charts ........................................................................................... 49
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Australia
PR China
Singapore
United
Thailand
World
Japan#
South Africa
Malaysia#
India#
States
Switzerland
Kingdom
France
Brazil
Taiwan
Korea#
South
United
Russia
UK
Singapore
PR China
United States
World
Japan#
Thailand
Pakistan
Switzerland
India#
France
Malaysia#
Sri Lanka
South Africa
Brazil
Taiwan
So Korea#
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Indian life insurance can have APE/VNB CAGR of 15-20% possible over next
decade as derived from related extrapolations of multiple key parameters.
Similarly, we also checked how Indian life insurance companies fared in terms of
product mix and persistency vs other geographies.
Some of the key findings of this macro study are as follows:
From point of view of reducing protection gap from 83% currently to 65%, APE/ VNB
CAGR will be 14.7%/16% over next 10 years. The CAGR will be significantly higher
(32%) if the same is achieved in shorter term. Regulator has an aim to increase the
insurance penetration to 8-10% (Currently 3-4%) by FY27.
From point of view of sum assured as % of GDP improving from 87% in FY22 to
150%, APE/ VNB CAGR will be 18%/19.5% over next 10 years, considering GDP
growth of 12% CAGR for next 10 years.
From point of view of premium density, India’s per person premium has to grow 4x
to reach Chinese levels implying similar 4x possible growth in total premiums of
Indian life insurers (chart 2 above)
The global reinsurer Swiss Re uses mortality protection gap and protection margin as
metrics to assess the adequacy of insurance coverage. Mortality protection gap is the
difference between the resources needed and the resources already available for the
family to maintain their living standards, in the event of death of a working family
member. Protection margin is the ratio of protection gap and protection needs.
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 3: Life expectancy (years) improvement Chart 4: India’s insurable population estimated at
expectations remain positive for life insurers ~1bn by CY35
(% )
50
70 69.3
40
68 30
66 20 35
28 23
64 10
2040E
2060E
2020
0
Less than 20yrs 20-64yrs 65yrs and above
Source: HDFC Life Investor presentation Source: HDFC Life Investor presentation
Chart 5: Sum assured percentage of GDP can Chart 6: Protection Gap indicates huge upside
improve significantly for India potential for India life insurance space
200 55
153 10 8.4 50
143
150 127 8 54 71 74 55 40
76
6 3.9 30
100 2.8
4 2 20
50 22 0.9 0.7 0.6
2 10
0 0 0
Australia
Korea
Korea
Singapore
Singapore
USA
Thailand
Thailand
Japan
Japan
India
Malaysia
South
Malaysia
India
South
Indonesia
Source: ICICI Prudential company presentation Source: ICICI Prudential company presentation
Note: Numbers highlighted inside the boxes are protection gap ratio
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 7: Addressable population coverage* Chart 8: …leaving enough headroom for growth
indicates strong thesis for protection opportunity beyond FY35 if we assume number of policies to
in India… increase by 20% p.a. up to FY35
50 76.9
0 8.4 13.3 31.3
FY22
FY25
FY30
FY35
Inforce no. of lives for retail protection/no. of returns with income
Source: ICICI Prudential company presentation Source: ICICI Prudential company presentation
*Addressable population coverage refers to Inforce no. of lives for retail Note: Assumed 10% lapse rate for in-force policies each year
protection/no. of returns with income >Rs0.25 mn *Addressable population refers to number of person who have filed income
above 0.25mn
Chart 9: Even after registering strong growth of Chart 10: Sum assured towards retail credit (which
20/25%, sum assured as % of GDP will still remain is voluntary in nature) has also seen a robust 16%
below the current ratio for global peers CAGR between FY14-FY22
332%
350% 40000
300% 252% 251% 35000
250%
30000
200% 153% 143%
127% 125% 25000 17856
150%
74% 20000
100%
22% 15000 9339
50%
10000 6454
0% 4711 15893
Singapore
USA
India @ 25%
India @ 20%
Japan
Malaysia
South Korea
India (Current)
5000 9746
Thailand
5386 7468
CAGR*
CAGR*
0
FY14
FY16
FY18
FY22
Source: ICICI Prudential company presentation Source: ICICI Prudential company presentation
Note: For calculation of GDP, growth rate of 10% is assumed between
FY22-30 and 8% between FY30-FY35
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Indian life insurers also can increase persistency as evident from a
comparison with Japanese and Taiwanese peers
Table 3: Persistency ratio of trend of Taiwan and Japan
Taiwan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
13th month persistency 85 85.3 87.5 87.2 89.2 90.4 88.4 91.5 92.4 93.9
25th month persistency 76.4 77.7 77.2 81.4 81.7 83.5 86.7 86.3 86.5 87.9
Japan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Year persistency 98.5 97.4 98.3 99.2 99.1 99.1 99.1 98.8 99.4
2 Year persistency 95 78.2 94.9 96.2 96.3 96.5 93.6 95.5
3 Year persistency 91.6 69.8 92.1 93.3 94.2 85.4 91.1
4 Year persistency 86.5 56.4 79.5 87.9 92.9 83.4
5 Year persistency 80.7 35.6 73.8 81.2 91.3
Source: ICICI Prudential company presentation
140 131.7
120
96.8
100
80
50.6 54.3
60
40
21.2
20 9.3
0
Australia
HK
USA
South
Japan
India
Africa
Table 4: As a proxy for China, we have shown below the annuity mix of Ping
which has increased sharply
Written premium 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Participating insurance 41.5 38.6 39.4 36.4 29.3 21.5
Universal insurance 28.5 24.8 20.8 19.5 16.7 17.0
Traditional life insurance 11.4 13.7 16.6 17.6 19.5 19.6
Long-term health insurance 9.7 11.8 13.9 15.8 17.5 19.3
Casualty & short-term health insurance 6.8 7.2 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.7
Annuity 1.3 3.4 1.7 2.7 9.1 13.7
Investment-linked insurance 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Source: Ping AN annual report
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 5: In developed countries like Japan, annuity mix remains higher and
stable
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Term Insurance 30% 31% 33% 35% 37%
Whole Life Insurance 20% 21% 21% 22% 23%
Whole Life with Term Rider 15.9% 14.0% 12.4% 10.2% 8.5%
Whole Life with Variable Accumulation Rider 9.4% 8.1% 6.9% 5.7% 5.0%
Endowment Insurance 5.0% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9%
Variable Insurance 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Health Insurance 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Juvenile Insurance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cancer Insurance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Others 17% 17% 17% 18% 17%
Source: Company data
Chart 12: Annuity APE has been strong for HDFC Life, IPRU Life and SBI Life
FY19 FY22 CAGR
6.0 70%
58%
4.9 60%
5.0 46%
50%
4.0
3.5
Rs bn
- 0%
HDFC Life SBI Life IPRU Life
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Brand name ‘LIC’, was recognised as the third strongest and 10th most
valuable global insurance brand as per the Insurance 100 2021 report released
by Brand Finance. As per RHP filed by the company, the brand value of LIC in
CY21 was US$8,655 million, with a Brand Strength Index (BSI) score of 84.1 out of
100, corresponding to AAA- brand strength rating.
Distribution is the biggest strength in insurance; LIC is well endowed in
agency while bancassurance is an opportunity. LIC’s 1.3mn agency force has
been a very strong economic moat for the company. Agent network productivity of
LIC has been far superior to industry peers. (Refer Exhibits 34-41). Bancassurance
and alternate channels contributes only 2.7% (Individual NBP basis) (As on Q1F23)
of LIC APE and LIC contributes only 5% of total Individual bancassurance
commission. As such, bancassurance-driven growth is a lever for LIC. Open
architecture (regulator is proposing that banks can have tie ups with 9 insurers (Link)
can further help to increase the bancassurance premium mix.
Strong back-book boost capability to support new business strain. LIC is fifth
largest insurer globally by life insurance GWP and 10th largest globally in terms of
total assets managed (as of FY21 for LIC and as of CY20 for others). LIC has total
AUM of Rs41trn as on Q1FY23 and is largely held under government securities.
(Refer exhibits 44-47).
Expansion of non-participating segment will be a big driver for VNB margin
expansion. LIC has launched all new products in non-par categories. These include
LIC Bima Ratna and LIC Dhan Sanchay in Q1FY23 and LIC new pension plan on
5th Sep’22. LIC had 16 individual participating products, 19 individual non-
participating products, 11 group products (including one credit life and one annuity
product) in its portfolio, along with 8 rider benefits as of Q1FY23. (Refer Table 13
and 14).
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Attractive valuations
LIC is trading at 0.7x trailing price to EV, which is a significant discount to Indian peers.
Comparison with global peers indicated an average P/EV of 0.8x suggesting a discount
again.
3.79
4.00
3.50 3.15
3.00
2.27
2.50
2.00 1.73
1.37
1.50
1.00 0.57 0.57 0.70
0.50 0.25 0.15
-
AIA Group Ltd
IPRU Life
Insurance Co-H
HDFC Life
Max
LIC
Insurance Gr-H
SBI Life
Prudential Plc
China Life
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
VNB margin has improved and is healthy at 15.1% as of FY22. Gross VNB split
is 45%, 27%, 28% among individual participating, individual non-participating and
group respectively.
12
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 14: LIC VNB margin trend---this will improve Chart 15: FY22 VNB split among segments
with mix improvement
FY22
Q1FY23
Ind non-
participating
27%
Chart 16: LIC VNB improved from Rs4.1bn in FY21 to Rs7.7bn in FY22
9,000 LIC VNB walk
8,000 803
7,000 1,012 454
6,000 1,222
5,000
4,000 7,651
3,000
2,000 4,160
1,000
-
opening VNB Change in Mix New Product Increase in Others FY22
volumes
Source: Company
LIC has high sensitivity to equity movement and change in tax rate; the low
sensitivity of LIC EV to interest rates is notable. The low sensitivity to interest
rates is driven by the high participating book.
Table 9: Impact on EV on account of 100bps change in reference rates and
equity movements
HDFC Life SBI Life IPRU Life LIC
An increase of 100bps in the reference rates -2.00% 0.40% -4.20% -0.40%
A decrease of 100bps in the reference rates 1.60% 0.10% 4.60% -0.30%
Decrease in Equity Value 10% -1.40% -1.50% -1.90% -6.50%
Source: Company presentation
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
High VNB sensitivity to change in interest rates. The high interest rate scenario
is likely to give support to LIC VNB (especially in FY23E). For example, the repo
rates have been hiked by 190bps in FY23-TD and 100bps increase in reference
rates would lead to ~180bps increase in VNB margin of LIC.
Table 10: Impact on VNB on account of 100bps change in reference rates
HDFC Life SBI Life IPRU Life LIC
An increase of 100 bps in the reference rates na (1.8%) (3.5%) 12.2%
A decrease of 100 bps in the reference rates Na 2.1% 3.2% (31.2%)
Source: Public disclosures. Note: HDFC Life reports impact on margin, hence ‘na’
EV walk: LIC has shared EV walk with several line items unique to the company
(not seen with peers), but all with good reasons. We explain the same below.
o Bifurcation impact: Company has separated the funds between non-
participating and participating in FY22 (in Sep’21). This resulted in jump in EV
from Rs0.95trn as of FY21 to Rs5.41trn as of FY22. As such, the bifurcation
impact is separately mentioned in EV walk at Rs3.7trn. The bifurcation impact
is less than the impact assessed in Sep’21 by Rs407bn due to the fall in equity
(50% contribution to the drop) and increase in reference rates (50% contribution
to the drop).
o Unwind of Rs227bn is split between real world returns of Rs180bn and
expected real world excess returns of Rs47bn. The unwind on opening EV of
Rs227bn in FY22 is only 4.8% (including the fund bifurcation impact of Rs3.7trn
on opening EV). However, we believe that the unwind on the surplus book under
the fund bifurcation would be included within the fund bifurcation impact and the
full year of unwind will not be there considering the bifurcation of funds in Sep’21.
For future estimates, our unwind rates are upon the total book and based on
estimates of equity return of near ~12% and debt return on ~8%, which gives a
weighted unwind of 9% assuming 75:25 debt: equity book within non-par AUM.
o Negative operating variance of Rs52bn. Company has a policy of expense
assumptions reassessment on a quarterly basis. It did it at FY22-end, which led
to a negative Rs52bn operating variance. This will be key going forward in the
sense that we would ideally want a nil/positive operating variance.
o Newly modelled plans contributed a positive Rs143bn in EV walk.
Company had modelled 94% of the product universe representing 91% of the
reserves and APE as of Mar’22. The newly modelled item accounts for the
remaining 6% of the product universe.
o ‘Others’ contributed Rs166bn split Rs83bn release from global reserves and
Rs83bn from data purification exercises. This can continue to happen every
year, but we do not factor-in any such items for forecast
Economic variance: We have factored an impact of ~Rs400bn (FY23+24) to factor
10% correction in equity market while our discounted EV multiple adequately factors
any further risk from the high equity market sensitivity of the surplus book. The
multiple of 0.7x to EV is equivalent to almost 50% market share correction based on
current sensitivity.
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 11: Embedded value walk
Rs bn FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Opening IEV 465 956 5,415 5,782
Bifurcation 3,742
VNB added during the year 42 76 83 98
Unwind 95 227 487 520
Variances in operating experience 4 -2 - -
Newly modelled parts 143 - -
Others 18 166
Change in operating assumptions 14 -52 - -
IEV operating earnings 172 558 571 618
15
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 17: Declining market share trend between Apr’20 to Dec’21 has seen trend
reversal in CY22.
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
-
May-20
May-21
May-22
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jan-22
Jun-22
Jan-21
Mar-21
Mar-22
Feb-21
Feb-22
Jul-22
Jul-20
Jul-21
Oct-21
Apr-22
Apr-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Aug-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Nov-21
Aug-22
Source: Life Insurance Council
Chart 18: LIC overall NBP market share Chart 19: LIC overall APE market share ( weighted)
LIC NBP market share LIC weighted APE market share
78 70 65 63
75 61
76 58
74 60 53 52
71 71 71 51 49
72 70 48 47 46
69 69 50 44
70 69
68
68 66 66 40
66 30
63
64
62 20
60
10
58
56 -
FY23-TD
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23-TD
FY14
FY15
FY17
FY18
FY21
FY22
FY12
FY13
FY16
FY19
FY20
16
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 20: LIC individual NBP market share Chart 21: LIC group NBP market share
LIC Indiviual NBP market share LIC Group NBP market share
80 83 82
66 67 68 82 81
70 81 81 81
59 56 59 56 81 80
60 52 50 80
50 79 79
50 44 42 79 78 78
78 77
40 76
77
30 76
20 75
74
10 73
- 72
FY23-TD
FY23-TD
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY22
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY12
FY13
FY19
FY20
FY21
Source: Life Insurance Council Source: Life Insurance Council
Chart 22: LIC individual APE market share Chart 23: LIC group APE market share
LIC Ind APE market share LIC Group APE market share
70 63 62 62 90 82
60 80 69
51 68 65 68 68 66 66
48 70 63 64
46 61
50 44 42 43 40 60 53
37 37
40 50
30 40
30
20
20
10 10
- -
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23-TD
FY23-TD
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY16
FY17
FY20
FY21
FY15
FY18
FY19
FY22
Par-heavy individual mix gives lower interest rate risk, lower new
business strain
LIC product map
Table 13: Product mix basis total APE
9MFY22 Individual Group Total
Par 92% 0% 64%
Non-par savings 1% 25% 8%
Protection 1% 1% 1%
Health 0% 0% 0%
ULIP 2% 0% 1%
Annuity / Pension 4% 74% 25%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Source: Company data.
17
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 14: Product mix basis total NBP
9MFY22 Individual Group Total
Par 70% 0% 20%
Non-par savings 0% 25% 18%
Protection 0% 1% 1%
Health 0% 0% 0%
ULIP 5% 0% 1%
Annuity / Pension 25% 74% 60%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Source: Company data
Chart 24: Product map basis total NBP as of Chart 25: Product map basis total APE as of
Q1FY23 Q1FY23
Term, 0.4% Savings,
Individual Par Individual Non Par Group
0.7%
Linked, Health,
5.2% 0.1% 100.0
90.0 25.2 29.4 37.2
80.0
70.0 5.7 5.0
%
60.0 4.9
Annuity / 50.0
Savings, 40.0
23.3% PAR, 70.3% 69.1 65.6
30.0 57.9
20.0
10.0
-
FY21
FY22
Q1FY23
Source: Company data Source: Company data
Chart 26: LIC single premium as % of overall LIC Chart 27: Private single premium as % of overall
NBP private NBP
LIC Single premium % of total NBP Private insurer single premium % of total NBP
100% 60%
86%
90% 82% 82% 49%
76% 79% 79% 78% 50% 47% 47%
80% 71%
65% 68% 40% 42%
70% 60% 40% 34% 35% 35%
60% 51% 31% 29% 30% 31%
50% 30%
40%
30% 20%
20% 10%
10%
0% 0%
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
FY20
FY22
FY23-TD
FY12
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY13
FY14
FY18
FY19
FY23-TD
18
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
LIC has a broad, diversified product portfolio covering various segments across
individual products and group products. LIC had 16 individual participating products, 19
individual non-participating products, 11 group products (including one credit life and
one annuity product) in its portfolio, along with 8 rider benefits as of Q1FY23.
LIC has launched all its new products in non-par categories. These include LIC Bima
Ratna and LIC Dhan Sanchay in Q1FY23 and LIC new pension plan on 5th Sep’22.
19
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Category Type of product Name of Product Primary customer needs addressed
Non-Participating Health Plan LIC’s Arogya Rakshak Health cover
Term Plan with Return Micro Insurance – risk cover with return of premiums on
Non-Participating of Premiums LIC’s New Jeevan Mangal maturity
Term Plan with Return Micro Insurance – risk cover with return of premiums on
Non-Participating of Premiums LIC’s Bhagya Lakshmi maturity
Source: Company
100.0 100%
90.0 95%
80.0 90%
70.0 85%
%
55.8
60.0 48.4 80%
46.0
50.0 42.2 75%
40.0 70%
30.0 65%
20.0 60%
10.0 55%
0.0 50%
FY22
FY19
FY20
FY21
Source: Company
20
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 17: Claims experience in 9MFY22 (product-wise)
9MFY22
Claims Paid Out as a
Premium [A] Amount of Claims Amount of Claims Claims Settlement
Percentage of Premium
(Rs mn) Made [B] (Rs mn) Paid Out [C] (Rs mn) Ratio [D=C/B] (%)
Product Name [E=C/A] (%)
In India:
Non-Linked Products:
Life Participating 17,63,561 12,62,701 11,11,030 88 63
Life Non-Participating 12,072 9,065 7,679 85 64
Annuity Participating 20 1,068 1,009 95 5,085
Annuity Non-Participating 88,783 10,931 10,795 99 12
Pension Participating 3,208 3,786 2,833 75 88
Health Non-Participating 2,231 472 195 41 9
Variable Non-Participating 59 632 579 91 979
Group Non-Participating 9,46,313 3,05,541 3,03,893 99 32
Linked Products:
Life Non-Participating 20,017 48,662 45,851 94 229
Pension Non-Participating 734 8,350 3,777 45 514
Health Non-Participating 513 463 394 85 77
Group Non-Participating 22 28 28 100 128
Total in India 28,37,533 16,51,699 14,88,063 90 52
Source: Company
Impact of covid: LIC has seen an increase in death rates since the onset of pandemic.
Accordingly, it, based on available information in the public domain, has not changed its
mortality assumptions. It has however on a prudent basis kept a separate reserve
without the need for changing long-term mortality assumptions.
Based on current EV Covid reserve as of FY22 stood at Rs74.2bn. This reserve is in addition to the long-term
sensitivity, mortality /
mortality reserve provided each year while determining and providing for the policy
morbidity of +5/-5% will
have almost nil impact liabilities.
‘on EV.
Chart 29: Net claims by death as % of total benefits paid has increased 6.7% in
FY19 to 10.1% to FY22
12.0%
10.1%
10.0%
8.1%
8.0%
%
6.7% 6.8%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
FY22
FY19
FY20
FY21
Source: Company
21
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 18: Claims mix
Claims (Rs bn) Claims (mix)
FY22 FY21 FY22 FY21
Claims by Death 366 239 10% 8%
Claims by Maturity 2,055 1,657 58% 58%
Annuities/Pensions payment 163 146 5% 5%
Surrenders 951 801 27% 28%
Hospitalisation Benefits 0 0 0% 0%
Major Surgical Benefits 0 0 0% 0%
Domiciliary Treatment Benefits 0 0 0% 0%
Day Care Benefits 0 0 0% 0%
Lump sum Benefit / Income Benefit (by installment) 0 0 0% 0%
Other Claims Cost- Interest on Unclaimed Amount 8 9 0% 0%
Others 0 0 0% 0%
Total 3,543 2,851 100% 100%
Reinsurance ceded
Claims by Death -9 -4 0% 0%
Other benefits -0 -0 0% 0%
Total -9 -5 0% 0%
Chart 30: Price comparison for Rs5mn sum Chart 31: Price comparison for Rs10mn sum
assured assured
5mn 10mn
HDFC Life
LIC
Bajaj Life
IPRU
LIC
HDFC Life
MAX Life
Bajaj Life
SBI Life
TATA AIA
TATA AIA
MAX Life
SBI Life
22
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 32: Price comparison for Rs30mn sum Chart 33: Price comparison for Rs50mn sum
assured assured
30mn 50mn
IPRU
LIC
LIC
HDFC Life
HDFC Life
Bajaj Life
Bajaj Life
TATA AIA
TATA AIA
MAX Life
MAX Life
SBI Life
SBI Life
Source: PolicyBazaar, LIC website Source: PolicyBazaar, LIC website
.
7.00%
6.36% 6.42%
6.50% 6.24%
5.77% 5.81%
6.00%
5.50%
5.00%
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
IPRU Life
LIC
HDFC Life
Bajaj
SBI Life
Source: Company
23
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Q1FY23
FY19
FY20
FY18
FY17
Source: Company
24
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 36: LIC has highest agent count… Chart 37: …with highest productivity amongst
peers
1,400 1,326
450
1,200 400
Rs 000
1,000 350
300
in 000
800 250
600 200
150
400 100
146 199
200 115 61 80 50
-
IPRU Life
HDFC Life
-
SBI Life
Max Life
LIC
IPRU Life
HDFC Life
SBI Life
Max Life
Birla Sun
Life
Source: Life Insurance Council Source: Life Insurance Council
Chart 38: Growth in number of agents between Chart 39: …while it tapered slightly in Q1FY23
FY19-FY22 has been higher for LIC compared to
peers…
Agency workforce growth (FY19-22) Agency w orkforce growth (Q1FY23 over Q1FY22)
14 12.48 9% 8%
11.29 8%
12 7%
9.91
10 6%
5%
8 4% 3%
%
6 3%
2%
4 1%
2 0%
-1%
0 -2% -1%
Industry
Industry
LIC
LIC
Private
Private
25
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 40: LIC’s mix of agents by age group Chart 41: High retention period as 59% of
individual agents in India have acted for LIC for
more than five years as at FY22
%
19
30%
13 20%
10%
0%
More than 5
Upto 5 years
13
years
29
49%
48% 47%
47%
46%
45%
44%
Urban, Semi
Rural
Metro,
Urban
26
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 20: Pan-India presence: LIC has wide presence across India
Individual Agents Branch Offices Satellite Offices Mini Offices Divisional Offices
State/Union Territory % of % of % of % of % of
Number Number Number Number Number
Total Total Total Total Total
Andhra Pradesh 61,947 4.61 105 5.13 65 4.18 19 1.62 5 4.42
Arunachal Pradesh 464 0.03 2 0.10 1 0.06 4 0.34 – –
Assam 33,704 2.51 49 2.39 26 1.67 16 1.36 4 3.54
Bihar 74,597 5.55 60 2.93 98 6.31 19 1.62 5 4.42
Chhattisgarh 23,179 1.73 30 1.46 35 2.25 19 1.62 2 1.77
Goa 3,470 0.26 11 0.54 3 0.19 3 0.26 1 0.88
Gujarat 69,687 5.19 142 6.93 62 3.99 49 4.18 7 6.19
Haryana 29,894 2.22 40 1.95 35 2.25 22 1.88 2 1.77
Himachal Pradesh 12,270 0.91 23 1.12 14 0.90 1 0.09 1 0.88
Jammu & Kashmir 7,227 0.54 17 0.83 13 0.84 12 1.02 1 0.88
Jharkhand 29,661 2.21 41 2.00 35 2.25 32 2.73 2 1.77
Karnataka 77,129 5.74 138 6.74 97 6.24 47 4.01 8 7.08
Kerala 49,050 3.65 85 4.15 109 7.01 43 3.67 5 4.42
Madhya Pradesh 78,242 5.82 110 5.37 88 5.66 130 11.08 6 5.31
Maharashtra 160,535 11.95 250 12.21 133 8.56 98 8.35 15 13.27
Manipur 973 0.07 4 0.20 3 0.19 8 0.68 – –
Meghalaya 819 0.06 3 0.15 1 0.06 5 0.43 – –
Mizoram 159 0.01 1 0.05 – – 6 0.51 – –
Nagaland 617 0.05 3 0.15 – – 5 0.43 – –
Orissa 51,438 3.83 56 2.73 65 4.18 22 1.88 4 3.54
Punjab 28,981 2.16 63 3.08 45 2.90 37 3.15 3 2.65
Rajasthan 72,751 5.41 110 5.37 88 5.66 60 5.12 6 5.31
Sikkim 652 0.05 1 0.05 1 0.06 – – – –
Tamil Nadu 85,574 6.37 173 8.45 164 10.55 143 12.19 8 7.08
Telangana 45,892 3.42 71 3.47 52 3.35 16 1.36 4 3.54
Tripura 4,124 0.31 4 0.20 12 0.77 2 0.17 – –
Uttar Pradesh 169,087 12.58 215 10.50 151 9.72 285 24.30 10 8.85
Uttarakhand 14,531 1.08 32 1.56 14 0.90 6 0.51 2 1.77
West Bengal 112,724 8.39 138 6.74 114 7.34 63 5.37 8 7.08
Andaman & Nicobar Islands 323 0.02 1 0.05 1 0.06 – – – –
Chandigarh 3,194 0.24 6 0.29 2 0.13 – – 1 0.88
Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu – – – – 2 0.13 – – – –
NCT of Delhi 38,964 2.90 61 2.98 19 1.22 – – 3 2.65
Ladakh – – – – 1 0.06 – – – –
Lakshadweep – – – – – – 1 0.09 – –
Puducherry 1,728 0.13 3 0.15 5 0.32 – – – –
Total 1,343,587 100.00 2,048 100.00 1,554 100.00 1,173 100.00 113 100.00
Source: Company
Why is banca mix so important for LIC? Given LIC’s legacy of selling PAR products
by its existing agent network, bancassurance can help it improve its product mix into
non-par (which includes ULIP, term, guaranteed savings, etc). Diversifying the product
mix more towards non-par mix can be margin- and value-accretive over a longer period
of time.
LIC can be the biggest beneficiary of likely regulation aiming to increase the
number of bancassurance partners. Expected reforms to allow banks to choose up
to 9 insurers each in life / general / SAHI could make LIC the preferred new insurance
partner for all banks.
Why LIC is so important for banks: LIC paid total commission of ~Rs100bn in
FY21/FY22 (in terms of first year and single premium), but banca channels got only
27
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Rs1.7bn of it. Total commission paid by the industry stood at Rs330bn (including
renewal commission) as of FY21, which includes Rs221bn (~Rs102bn paid on NBP and
~Rs119bn paid on renewals) paid by LIC.
Chart 46: LIC individual NBP channel mix Chart 47: SBI Life NBP channel mix
75.0% 20.0%
28.0% 27.0%
70.0% 0.0%
FY21 FY22 FY21 FY22
Chart 48: HDFC Life NBP channel mix Chart 49: IPRU channel mix
100.0% 100.0%
28.5% 27.2%
80.0% 41.9% 42.3% 80.0%
60.0% 60.0%
46.8% 45.2%
40.0% 40.0%
45.8% 44.5%
20.0% 20.0%
24.7% 27.6%
12.3% 13.2%
0.0% 0.0%
FY21 FY22 FY21 FY22
Banca becomes an important channel for LIC to make efforts to increase its mix
from the perspective of ticket size.
Basis individual NBP, ticket size of LIC is far bigger compared to that of other private
insurers. This largely due to higher rural market share compared to private insurers.
Although, smaller ticket size ensures stickiness during volatile conditions, higher ticket
size policies are required to write non-par products to ensure profitability. Training of
existing agency channel to sell high ticket size items could be challenging to an existing
customer base. Hence banking and other channels becomes imperative for LIC to
increase its non-par mix.
28
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 50: 9MFY22 individual NBP rural mix of LIC Chart 51: …while its rural individual NBP market
is lower compared to SBI Life, BALIC and Max… share is highest amongst peers
LIC SBI Life
By Individual NBP Urban HDFC Life ICICI Prud ential L ife
120% Max Life Baja j A llianz L ife
By Individual NBP Rural
Median of top five pr iva te players
50% 44%
100% 20%
13% 12% 12% 17% 20% 38%
80% 40%
60% 30%
40% 87% 80% 88% 88% 83% 81% 20%
20%
10%
0% Prudential
HDFC Life
Bajaj Allianz
LIC
Max Life
SBI Life
0%
Urban
Rural
ICICI
Life
Life
By Individual NBP
Source: Public disclosure Source: Public disclosure
Chart 52: Basis individual NBP, ticket size of LIC is far lower compared to other
private insurers
1,40,000
1,18,623
1,20,000 1,02,598
96,608
1,00,000 86,525
75,466
80,000
59,265
60,000
40,000 26,949
20,000
-
Kotak Life
IPRU Life
LIC
HDFC Life
BALIC
Max Life
SBI Life
Source: IRDAI Handbook
29
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
In view of the above, one refer to TATA AIA to be pursuing a high-cost high-margin
strategy and also serve as an example that there does exist scope for product
mix/margin to improve for other private life insurers even now and bancassurance can
be utilised even if there is no bank parentage.
30
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 21: Estimated VNB margin of Tata AIA
Share of other
AIA Total (US$ mn) markets in total AIA Other Markets (US$ mn)
APE 5647 25% 1412
VNB 3366 14% 471
VNB Margin (estimated) 33%
Note: ‘Other markets’ data of AIA includes Tata AIA Life
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Median of top
IPRU Life
LIC
HDFC Life
BALIC
Max Life
SBI Life
five private
Source: Company players
Chart 54: Opex ratio as % of total premium (~8% for LIC as of FY22)
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Median of top
IPRU Life
HDFC Life
LIC
BALIC
SBI Life
Max Life
five private
players
Source: Company
31
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 55: Total opex % of total premium(~13%% for LIC as of FY22)
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Median of top
IPRU Life
HDFC Life
LIC
BALIC
SBI Life
Max Life
five private
players
Source: Company
32
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
33
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Asset break-up of investments under various categories
Chart 56: Shareholders AUM break-up Chart 57: Policyholders AUM break-up
%
0.6
-
50.0 12.5 50.0
40.0 40.0
30.0 56.4 30.0 67.2 64.6 65.9
20.0 44.0
33.1 20.0
10.0 10.0
- -
FY21
FY22
Q1FY23
FY21
FY22
Q1FY23
Shareholders Policyholders
Source: Company data Source: Company data
Chart 58: Asset-linked AUM break-up Chart 59: Overall AUM break-up
49.4
50.0 50.0
40.0 37.2 40.0
30.0 - - 30.0 66.8 64.3 65.7
20.0 - 20.0
33.2 34.0
10.0 23.9 10.0
- -
FY21
FY22
FY21
FY22
Q1FY23
Q1FY23
Asset Linked Total
Source: Company data Source: Company data
34
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Peer comparison
Chart 60: Q1FY23 vs Q1FY22 13M persistency Chart 61: Q1FY23 vs Q1FY22 25M persistency
13M 25m
Q1FY22 Q1FY23 Q1FY22 Q1FY23
100 90 93 100
85.9 85.6 85 85.5 82 86
90 90
75.3 78.7 73.7 77.6
80 80
70 61 64 70
54 56
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
IPRU Life
HDFC Life
IPRU Life
HDFC Life
SBI Life
LIC
LIC
SBI Life
Chart 62: Q1FY23 vs Q1FY22 37M persistency Chart 63: Q1FY23 vs Q1FY22 49M persistency
37M 49M
Q1FY22 Q1FY23 Q1FY22 Q1FY23
90 80 80 72 70.3
80 73 72 72.2 67 66.3 64.9 65
70
66.4 67.8
70 60
60 52 48 49
51 50
50
40
40
30
30
20 20
10 10
0 0
IPRU Life
IPRU Life
HDFC
HDFC
SBI Life
LIC
SBI Life
LIC
Life
Life
61M
Q1FY22 Q1FY23
70
58 55.7
60 53
48 49.3 50.3 50.8
50 45
40
30
20
10
0
IPRU Life
HDFC
SBI Life
LIC
Life
35
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
LIC selects the reinsurers based on the terms offered, reinsurance rating, financial
stability, operational and technical support provided. They continuously monitor the
financial health of their reinsurers and have experienced nil defaults from them in FY19,
FY20, FY21 and the six months ended 30th Sep’21.
36
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Digital processes have been designed to empower policyholders to carry out their
necessary processes.
37
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
LIC’s operational efficiency is also illustrated from its ‘Print to Post’ solutions process
Chart 65: Number of LIC app users has inched up Chart 66: …so did portal-registered customers
sharply between FY21 and Q1FY23…
7.03 25.03
5.75 5.82 19.75
6.03 19.3
20.03 16.9
5.03 4.54
4.03 15.03
3.03 10.03
2.03
5.03
1.03
0.03 0.03
FY21
FY22
Q1FY23
FY21
FY22
Q1FY23
38
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
39
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Implementing a new unique customer identification and deduplication system, which will
allow for more efficient cross-selling of products, simplify the customer experience, allow
for customisation of services, increase the efficiency of claims management as well as
provide for better customer profiling and retention. LIC has already started work on this
initiative.
Increasing the use of the app Ananda (Ananda is completely paperless digital
platform for procurement of insurance business used by all sales corporation)
LIC plans to continue to Increasing the online recruitment of agents.
promote the use of digital
modes of payment to Increasing the use of online training of agents.
increase the share of Increasing the use of digital marketing.
premiums collected through
digital modes. For FY19, LIC plans to continue to promote the use of digital modes of payment to increase the
FY20, FY21 and the six share of premiums collected through digital modes. For FY19, FY20, FY21 and the six
months ended 30th Sep’21, months ended 30th Sep’21, LIC collected Rs317bn, Rs417bn, Rs692bn and Rs342bn
LIC collected Rs317bn, of renewal premiums in India via digital modes of payment, respectively, which
Rs417bn, Rs692bn and represented 17.24%, 22.20%, 32.11% and 36.64% of total premiums paid in India,
Rs342bn of renewal respectively
premiums in India via
digital modes of payment, Maximise value creation through commercial and financial levers
respectively, which
represented 17.24%, LIC plans to increase persistency ratio
22.20%, 32.11% and
Increasing the number of policies that are revived by LIC through launch of revival
36.64% of total premiums
campaigns and encouraging convenient modes of payment, such as payment through
paid in India, respectively
the E-NACH.
LIC plans to continue to engage with policyholders, directly and through intermediaries,
to retain the policies that are being served.
40
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Optimise yield on investment
LIC plans to continue to strive for a dynamic and strategic asset allocation amongst the
different asset classes allowed within the regulatory framework, depending upon the
market cycles and conditions, with a view to improve the yield on investments.
41
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Company Overview
Subsidiaries and associates
42
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Board of directors
Table 28: LIC Board of directors
Wholetime Chairperson Mangalam Ramasubramanian Kumar
Government Nominee Director Suchindra Misra
Managing Director Raj Kumar
Managing Director Siddhartha Mohanty
Managing Director Mini Ipe
Managing Director Bishnu Charan Patnaik
Independent Director Dr. Ranjan Sharma
Independent Director Vinod Kumar Verma
Independent Director Anil Kumar
Independent Director Anjuly Chib Duggal
Independent Director Gurumoorthy Mahalingam
Independent Director Raj Kamal
Independent Director Vankipuram Srinivasa Parthasarathy
Independent Director Vijay Kumar Muthu Raju Paravasa Raju
Independent Director Sanjeev Nautiyal
Source: Company
Source: Company
43
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Dividend policy
LIC’s dividend distribution policy was adopted and approved by the Board of directors
in its meeting on 26th Jul’21 (dividend policy). In terms of the dividend policy, the
dividend, if any, will be declared in accordance with Section 28B of the Life Insurance
Corporation Act and other applicable laws, and shall be approved by the shareholders
in a general meeting.
44
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Key risks
The pandemic like situations could adversely affect all aspects of business,
including: (i) restricting the ability of agents to sell products; (ii) significantly
increasing expenses due to changes in rules and regulations, and investing in
new methodologies to overcome the pandemic-induced restrictions, and the
adverse changes in population mortality/morbidity or utilisation behaviours; (iii)
adversely affecting the investment portfolio; (iv) adversely affecting operational
effectiveness; and (v) heightening the risks faced in the business.
LIC’s brand name, reputation and perception are critical in maintaining its leading
position in the Indian life insurance industry and any unfavourable publicity could have
an adverse effect on brand name and consequently adversely affect the business,
financial condition, results of operations and cashflows
45
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Interest rate fluctuations may materially and adversely affect LIC’s profitability.
A significant proportion of LIC’s total new business premiums are generated by
participating products, and any regulatory changes or market developments that
adversely affect sales of such products could have a materially adverse effect on
business, financial condition, results of operations and cashflows.
If LIC does not meet solvency ratio requirements, it could be subject to regulatory
actions and could be forced to raise additional capital.
LIC is exposed to misconduct and fraud by employees and intermediaries and any
such instances could adversely affect reputation, business, financial condition,
results of operations and cashflows.
Higher than expected operating expenses related to insurance business could have
a materially adverse effect on results of operations.
The actuarial valuations of policies with outstanding liabilities are not required to be
audited and if such valuation is incorrect, it could have an adverse effect on
business, financial condition and results of operations.
A significant portion of individual premium in India is concentrated in certain states.
Certain LIC employees are members of unions that company has not recognised,
and the company may be subject to industrial unrest, slowdowns and increased
wage costs.
LIC is subject to complex regulatory requirements and if it fails to comply with these
regulatory requirements, its operations could be disrupted or it may become subject
to significant penalties. In addition, any changes in regulatory requirements could
have a material adverse effect on LIC’s business, financial condition, results of
operations and cashflows.
Changes in the accounting standards used in the reporting of Restated
Consolidated Financial Statements due to new pronouncements – such as Ind-AS,
interpretations, migration to new standards or even due to LIC’s decision to change
accounting policies – may significantly affect financial statements for future years,
and may materially and adversely affect the company’s financial condition and
results of operations.
The occurrence of natural or man-made disasters and catastrophes, such as the
covid pandemic, could materially increase liabilities for claims by policyholders and
result in losses in investment portfolios, which in turn could have a materially
adverse effect on financial condition and results of operations and cashflows.
LIC may be unable to obtain external reinsurance on a timely basis at reasonable
costs and is exposed to concentration risk with individual reinsurers. LIC utilises the
reinsurance markets to minimise its risk exposure in order to stabilise its earnings
and protect capital resources. For FY19, FY20, FY21 and the six months ended 30th
Sep’21, LIC’s reinsurance ceded was Rs3,229.81mn, Rs3,359.32mn,
Rs4,523.04mn and Rs2,458.02mn on a consolidated basis, which represented
0.10%, 0.09%, 0.11% and 0.13% of their premiums on a consolidated basis,
respectively.
LIC may be required to infuse additional funds in IDBI Bank, one of its associates,
in the future. It may be required to ensure housing finance activity is conducted only
46
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
through one entity between IDBI Bank or LIC Housing Finance Limited. LIC infused
Rs47,430.00mn into IDBI Bank, on 23rd Oct’19 using policyholders’ funds. IDBI Bank
raised Rs14,351.80mn on 19th Dec’20 by way of a qualified institutional placement.
IDBI Bank has come out of the prompt corrective action framework since 10th
Mar’21, subject to compliance with certain conditions and continuous monitoring.
Price chart
1000
900
800
(Rs)
700
600
500
400
5-Aug
4-Sep
26-Jun
16-Jun
6-Jun
26-Jul
16-Jul
6-Jul
4-Oct
27-May
17-May
15-Aug
14-Sep
25-Aug
24-Sep
Source: Bloomberg
47
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Financial summary
Table 30: Technical Account
P/H A/C (Rs bn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Gross Premiums 3,403 3,828 4,059 4,301 4,853 5,435
Reinsurance Ceded -3 -3 -5 -6 -7 -8
Net Premiums 3,400 3,825 4,054 4,295 4,846 5,427
Income from Investments 2,250 2,428 2,855 2,941 3,350 3,712
Other Income 58 203 128 8 9 9
Total income 5,708 6,456 7,037 7,244 8,204 9,148
Commission 205 215 224 233 263 295
Operating expenses 544 895 652 377 529 592
Total commission and opex 749 1,111 876 610 792 887
Benefits Paid (Net) 2,540 2,572 2,907 3,595 3,997 4,436
Chg in reserves 2,536 2,966 3,211 3,072 3,345 3,746
Total expenses 5,076 5,538 6,119 6,667 7,342 8,182
Provisions -93 -91 4 -90 - -
Surplus / deficit before tax -24 -101 39 57 70 79
Add: Share of profits from
Asso 7 6 12 42 48 56
(Less)/Add: Minority Interest 25 64 -4 -0 - -
Surplus / Deficit 8 -32 46 99 118 135
Source: Company, I-Sec research
Shareholders’ inv 4 4 4 52 56 61
Policyholders’ inv 28,777 29,579 34,984 39,114 43,221 48,255
Assets to cover linked liab. 336 322 330 240 388 435
Loans 2,499 2,374 1,088 1,110 1,110 1,110
Fixed Assets 146 146 35 36 37 39
Net Current assets 1,903 1,717 1,023 1,273 1,142 1,132
Total 33,663 34,142 37,464 41,825 45,955 51,033
Source: Company, I-Sec research
48
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Charts
Chart 1: Life insurance premium as % of GDP ..................................................................... 4
Chart 2: Life insurance density (premium per capita) ........................................................... 4
Chart 3: Life expectancy (years) improvement expectations remain positive for life insurers
........................................................................................................................................ 6
Chart 4: India’s insurable population estimated at ~1bn by CY35........................................ 6
Chart 5: Sum assured percentage of GDP can improve significantly for India .................... 6
Chart 6: Protection Gap indicates huge upside potential for India life insurance space ...... 6
Chart 7: Addressable population coverage* indicates strong thesis for protection
opportunity in India… ...................................................................................................... 7
Chart 8: …leaving enough headroom for growth beyond FY35 if we assume number of
policies to increase by 20% p.a. up to FY35 ................................................................... 7
Chart 9: Even after registering strong growth of 20/25%, sum assured as % of GDP will still
remain below the current ratio for global peers............................................................... 7
Chart 10: Sum assured towards retail credit (which is voluntary in nature) has also seen a
robust 16% CAGR between FY14-FY22 ........................................................................ 7
Chart 11: Pension fund assets percentage of GDP .............................................................. 8
49
Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 12: Annuity APE has been strong for HDFC Life, IPRU Life and SBI Life.................. 9
Chart 13: Price to Embedded Value (EV) comparison ....................................................... 11
Chart 14: LIC VNB margin trend---this will improve with mix improvement ........................ 13
Chart 15: FY22 VNB split among segments ....................................................................... 13
Chart 16: LIC VNB improved from Rs4.1bn in FY21 to Rs7.7bn in FY22 .......................... 13
Chart 17: Declining market share trend between Apr’20 to Dec’21 has seen trend reversal
in CY22.......................................................................................................................... 16
Chart 18: LIC overall NBP market share ............................................................................ 16
Chart 19: LIC overall APE market share ( weighted) .......................................................... 16
Chart 20: LIC individual NBP market share ........................................................................ 17
Chart 21: LIC group NBP market share .............................................................................. 17
Chart 22: LIC individual APE market share ........................................................................ 17
Chart 23: LIC group APE market share .............................................................................. 17
Chart 24: Product map basis total NBP as of Q1FY23 ....................................................... 18
Chart 25: Product map basis total APE as of Q1FY23 ....................................................... 18
Chart 26: LIC single premium as % of overall LIC NBP ..................................................... 18
Chart 27: Private single premium as % of overall private NBP .......................................... 18
Chart 28: Claims paid as % of total premium increased in FY22 ....................................... 20
Chart 29: Net claims by death as % of total benefits paid has increased 6.7% in FY19 to
10.1% to FY22 .............................................................................................................. 21
Chart 30: Price comparison for Rs5mn sum assured ......................................................... 22
Chart 31: Price comparison for Rs10mn sum assured ....................................................... 22
Chart 32: Price comparison for Rs30mn sum assured ....................................................... 23
Chart 33: Price comparison for Rs50mn sum assured ....................................................... 23
Chart 34: …LIC is competitive ............................................................................................ 23
Chart 35: Distribution break-up (individual NBP terms) ...................................................... 24
Chart 36: LIC has highest agent count…............................................................................ 25
Chart 37: …with highest productivity amongst peers ......................................................... 25
Chart 38: Growth in number of agents between FY19-FY22 has been higher for LIC
compared to peers…..................................................................................................... 25
Chart 39: …while it tapered slightly in Q1FY23 .................................................................. 25
Chart 40: LIC’s mix of agents by age group ....................................................................... 26
Chart 41: High retention period as 59% of individual agents in India have acted for LIC for
more than five years as at FY22 ................................................................................... 26
Chart 42: LIC trained a total of 408k agents in FY22 ......................................................... 26
Chart 43: LIC training infrastructure .................................................................................... 26
Chart 44: 96% of total employees are deployed at divisional and branch office to look after
operational activities...................................................................................................... 26
Chart 45: Geographical placement of agents ..................................................................... 26
Chart 46: LIC individual NBP channel mix .......................................................................... 28
Chart 47: SBI Life NBP channel mix ................................................................................... 28
Chart 48: HDFC Life NBP channel mix............................................................................... 28
Chart 49: IPRU channel mix ............................................................................................... 28
Chart 50: 9MFY22 individual NBP rural mix of LIC is lower compared to SBI Life, BALIC
and Max… ..................................................................................................................... 29
Chart 51: …while its rural individual NBP market share is highest amongst peers............ 29
Chart 52: Basis individual NBP, ticket size of LIC is far lower compared to other private
insurers.......................................................................................................................... 29
Chart 53: Commission as % of total premium (~5% for LIC as of FY22) ........................... 31
Chart 54: Opex ratio as % of total premium (~8% for LIC as of FY22) .............................. 31
Chart 55: Total opex % of total premium(~13%% for LIC as of FY22) ............................... 32
Chart 56: Shareholders AUM break-up .............................................................................. 34
Chart 57: Policyholders AUM break-up .............................................................................. 34
Chart 58: Asset-linked AUM break-up ................................................................................ 34
Chart 59: Overall AUM break-up ........................................................................................ 34
Chart 60: Q1FY23 vs Q1FY22 13M persistency ................................................................ 35
Chart 61: Q1FY23 vs Q1FY22 25M persistency ................................................................ 35
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 62: Q1FY23 vs Q1FY22 37M persistency ................................................................ 35
Chart 63: Q1FY23 vs Q1FY22 49M persistency ................................................................ 35
Chart 64: Q1FY23 vs Q1FY22 61M persistency ................................................................ 35
Chart 65: Number of LIC app users has inched up sharply between FY21 and Q1FY23…
...................................................................................................................................... 38
Chart 66: …so did portal-registered customers .................................................................. 38
Chart 67: Management organisation chart ......................................................................... 43
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Life Insurance Corporation of India, November 11, 2022 ICICI Securities
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