Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

January 2,000 3,000 2,000 5,000 5,000

February 3,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 2,000
March 3,000 3,000 5,000 4,000 3,000
April 3,000 5,000 3,000 2,000 2,000
May 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000 7,000
June 6,000 8,000 6,000 7,000 6,000
July 7,000 3,000 7,000 10,000 8,000
August 6,000 8,000 10,000 14,000 10,000
September 10,000 12,000 15,000 16,000 20,000
October 12,000 12,000 15,000 16,000 20,000
November 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000
December 8,000 10,000 8,000 12,000 8,000
25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

-
1 3 5 7 9
25,000

20,000
Column B
15,000
Column C
10,000 Column D
Column E
5,000 Column F

-
1 3 5 7 9 11
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.974926
R Square 0.95048
Adjusted R 0.949403
Standard E 226.9015
Observatio 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 45456340 45456340 882.9169 1.14E-31
Residual 46 2368277 51484.28
Total 47 47824617

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 5997.261 79.19341 75.72929 6.13E-50 5837.852 6156.669 5837.852 6156.669
X Variable 70.24578 2.36407 29.71392 1.14E-31 65.48716 75.00441 65.48716 75.00441
 N
4
Tháng demand de-sea de_re sea_f Lever trend sea_f_tb mov_av
0 5997 70 Level Forecast
1 2,000 6067 0.33 0.427
2 3,000 6137 0.49 0.475
3 3,000 6207 0.48 0.463
4 3,000 6277 0.48 0.398 2,750
5 4,000 6347 0.63 0.622 3,250 2,750
6 6,000 6417 0.94 0.835 4,000 3,250
7 7,000 6541.6667 6487 1.08 0.854 5,000 4,000
8 6,000 6625 6557 0.92 1.152 5,750 5,000
9 10,000 6666.6667 6627 1.51 1.735 7,250 5,750
10 12,000 6750 6697 1.79 1.780 8,750 7,250
11 14,000 6875 6767 2.07 2.126 10,500 8,750
12 8,000 7000 6837 1.17 1.096 11,000 10,500
13 3,000 6916.6667 6907 0.43 9,250 11,000
14 4,000 6833.3333 6977 0.57 7,250 9,250
15 3,000 7000 7047 0.43 4,500 7,250
16 5,000 7083.3333 7117 0.70 3,750 4,500
17 5,000 7166.6667 7187 0.70 4,250 3,750
18 8,000 7333.3333 7257 1.10 5,250 4,250
19 3,000 7375 7327 0.41 5,250 5,250
20 8,000 7375 7397 1.08 6,000 5,250
21 12,000 7500 7467 1.61 7,750 6,000
22 12,000 7500 7537 1.59 8,750 7,750
23 16,000 7375 7607 2.10 12,000 8,750
24 10,000 7250 7677 1.30 12,500 12,000
25 2,000 7333.3333 7747 0.26 10,000 12,500
26 5,000 7583.3333 7817 0.64 8,250 10,000
27 5,000 7791.6667 7887 0.63 5,500 8,250
28 3,000 8041.6667 7957 0.38 3,750 5,500
29 4,000 8250 8027 0.50 4,250 3,750
30 6,000 8250 8097 0.74 4,500 4,250
31 7,000 8291.6667 8167 0.86 5,000 4,500
32 10,000 8375 8237 1.21 6,750 5,000
33 15,000 8291.6667 8307 1.81 9,500 6,750
34 15,000 8208.3333 8377 1.79 11,750 9,500
35 18,000 8208.3333 8447 2.13 14,500 11,750
36 8,000 8291.6667 8517 0.94 14,000 14,500
37 5,000 8458.3333 8587 0.58 11,500 14,000
38 4,000 8750 8657 0.46 8,750 11,500
39 4,000 8958.3333 8727 0.46 5,250 8,750
40 2,000 9041.6667 8797 0.23 3,750 5,250
41 5,000 9166.6667 8867 0.56 3,750 3,750
42 7,000 9416.6667 8937 0.78 4,500 3,750
43 10,000 9583.3333 9007 1.11 6,000 4,500
44 14,000 9500 9077 1.54 9,000 6,000
45 16,000 9375 9147 1.75 11,750 9,000
46 16,000 9333.3333 9217 1.74 14,000 11,750
47 20,000 9416.6667 9287 2.15 16,500 14,000
48 12,000 9458.3333 9357 1.28 16,000 16,500
49 5,000 9333.3333 9427 0.53 13,250 16,000
50 2,000 9083.3333 9497 0.21 9,750 13,250
51 3,000 9083.3333 9567 0.31 5,500 9,750
52 2,000 9416.6667 9637 0.21 3,000 5,500
53 7,000 9666.6667 9707 0.72 3,500 3,000
54 6,000 9583.3333 9777 0.61 4,500 3,500
55 8,000 9847 0.81 5,750 4,500
56 10,000 9917 1.01 7,750 5,750
57 20,000 9987 2.00 11,000 7,750
58 20,000 10057 1.99 14,500 11,000
59 22,000 10127 2.17 18,000 14,500
60 8,000 10197 0.78 17,500 18,000
17,500
62 17,500
63 17,500
64 17,500
65 17,500
66 17,500
67 17,500
68 17,500
69 17,500
70 17,500
71 17,500
72 17,500
 alpha 1.0 alpha Beta
Simple exponential Holt 0.1 0.2 Winter
Level Forecast Error Level Trend Forecast Error Level Trend
Error 8,217 5,997 70 5,997 70
2,000 8217 6,217 5,660 -11 6,067 4,067 5,929 42
3,000 2000 -1,000 5,384 -64 5,649 2,649 6,006 49
3,000 3000 0 5,088 -111 5,320 2,320 6,097 58
3,000 3000 0 4,779 -150 4,977 1,977 6,293 85
-1,250 4,000 3000 -1,000 4,566 -163 4,629 629 6,383 86
-2,750 6,000 4000 -2,000 4,563 -131 4,403 -1,597 6,541 101
-3,000 7,000 6000 -1,000 4,689 -80 4,432 -2,568 6,798 132
-1,000 6,000 7000 1,000 4,748 -52 4,609 -1,391 6,757 97
-4,250 10,000 6000 -4,000 5,227 54 4,697 -5,303 6,746 76
-4,750 12,000 10000 -2,000 5,953 189 5,281 -6,719 6,813 74
-5,250 14,000 12000 -2,000 6,928 346 6,142 -7,858 6,857 68
2,500 8,000 14000 6,000 7,346 360 7,274 -726 6,963 75
8,000 3,000 8000 5,000 7,236 266 7,707 4,707 7,084 85
5,250 4,000 3000 -1,000 7,152 196 7,502 3,502 7,281 107
4,250 3,000 4000 1,000 6,913 109 7,348 4,348 7,286 87
-500 5,000 3000 -2,000 6,820 69 7,023 2,023 7,820 176
-1,250 5,000 5000 0 6,700 31 6,889 1,889 7,999 177
-3,750 8,000 5000 -3,000 6,858 56 6,731 -1,269 8,288 199
2,250 3,000 8000 5,000 6,523 -22 6,915 3,915 7,970 96
-2,750 8,000 3000 -5,000 6,651 8 6,501 -1,499 8,005 84
-6,000 12,000 8000 -4,000 7,193 115 6,659 -5,341 8,003 66
-4,250 12,000 12000 0 7,777 209 7,308 -4,692 7,938 40
-7,250 16,000 12000 -4,000 8,787 369 7,986 -8,014 7,943 33
2,000 10,000 16000 6,000 9,241 386 9,156 -844 8,078 53
10,500 2,000 10000 8,000 8,864 233 9,627 7,627 7,809 -11
5,000 5,000 2000 -3,000 8,688 151 9,097 4,097 8,014 32
3,250 5,000 5000 0 8,455 75 8,839 3,839 8,343 92
2,500 3,000 5000 2,000 7,977 -36 8,530 5,530 8,207 46
-250 4,000 3000 -1,000 7,547 -115 7,941 3,941 8,069 9
-1,750 6,000 4000 -2,000 7,289 -143 7,432 1,432 7,944 -18
-2,500 7,000 6000 -1,000 7,131 -146 7,145 145 8,070 11
-5,000 10,000 7000 -3,000 7,286 -86 6,984 -3,016 8,225 40
-8,250 15,000 10000 -5,000 7,980 70 7,200 -7,800 8,369 61
-5,500 15,000 15000 0 8,745 209 8,050 -6,950 8,471 69
-6,250 18,000 15000 -3,000 9,859 390 8,954 -9,046 8,554 72
6,500 8,000 18000 10,000 10,024 345 10,248 2,248 8,459 38
9,000 5,000 8000 3,000 9,832 238 10,369 5,369 9,030 145
7,500 4,000 5000 1,000 9,462 116 10,069 6,069 8,999 110
4,750 4,000 4000 0 9,021 5 9,578 5,578 9,003 89
3,250 2,000 4000 2,000 8,323 -136 9,025 7,025 8,626 -5
-1,250 5,000 2000 -3,000 7,868 -200 8,187 3,187 8,613 -6
-3,250 7,000 5000 -2,000 7,602 -213 7,668 668 8,569 -14
-5,500 10,000 7000 -3,000 7,650 -161 7,389 -2,611 8,976 70
-8,000 14,000 10000 -4,000 8,140 -31 7,489 -6,511 9,414 144
 -7,000 16,000 14000 -2,000 8,899 127 8,110 -7,890 9,563 145
-4,250 16,000 16000 0 9,723 267 9,026 -6,974 9,669 137
-6,000 20,000 16000 -4,000 10,991 467 9,990 -10,010 9,785 133
4,500 12,000 20000 8,000 11,512 478 11,458 -542 10,029 155
11,000 5,000 12000 7,000 11,291 338 11,990 6,990 10,357 190
11,250 2,000 5000 3,000 10,666 145 11,629 9,629 9,884 57
6,750 3,000 2000 -1,000 10,030 -11 10,811 7,811 9,570 -17
3,500 2,000 3000 1,000 9,217 -171 10,019 8,019 9,118 -104
-4,000 7,000 2000 -5,000 8,842 -212 9,046 2,046 9,311 -45
-2,500 6,000 7000 1,000 8,367 -265 8,630 2,630 9,053 -87
-3,500 8,000 6000 -2,000 8,092 -267 8,102 102 8,976 -85
-4,250 10,000 8000 -2,000 8,042 -223 7,825 -2,175 8,824 -99
-12,250 20,000 10000 -10,000 9,037 20 7,819 -12,181 9,052 -33
-9,000 20,000 20000 0 10,152 239 9,058 -10,942 9,294 22
-7,500 22,000 20000 -2,000 11,552 471 10,391 -11,609 9,446 48
10,000 8,000 22000 14,000 11,621 391 12,023 4,023 9,258 1
17,500 8000 12,012
17,500 8000 12,403
17,500 8000 12,794
17,500 8000 13,185
17,500 8000 13,576
17,500 8000 13,966
17,500 8000 14,357
17,500 8000 14,748
17,500 8000 15,139
17,500 8000 15,530
17,500 8000 15,921
17,500 8000 16,312
alpha beta gama Đánh giá sai số Simple exponential
0.1 0.2 0.3 MSE
Season Forecast Error Mov_av 17,010,782
MSE MAD MAPE TS
0.4269651 2590.3974 590 33,101,563 4,987 87.04 bias MADt TS 38,646,944
0.4748857 2835.5745 -164 1,000,000
0.4629837 2803.348 -197 0
0.3984777 2452.7101 -547 0
0.6218511 3966.0282 -34 1,562,500 1250 0.3125 -1,250 1,250 -1.0 1,000,000
0.8350722 5402.5559 -597 7,562,500 2750 0.4583333 -4,000 2,000 -2.0 4,000,000
0.8536623 5669.8078 -1,330 9,000,000 3000 0.4285714 -7,000 2,333 -3.0 1,000,000
1.1522671 7984.4815 1,984 1,000,000 1000 0.1666667 -8,000 2,000 -4.0 1,000,000
1.7347133 11890.587 1,891 18,062,500 4250 0.425 -12,250 2,450 -5.0 16,000,000
1.7798394 12140.407 140 22,562,500 4750 0.3958333 -17,000 2,833 -6.0 4,000,000
2.1258164 14640.836 641 27,562,500 5250 0.375 -22,250 3,179 -7.0 4,000,000
1.0958001 7588.3767 -412 6,250,000 2500 0.3125 -19,750 3,094 -6.4 36,000,000
0.4000778 2815.7441 -184 64,000,000 8000 2.6666667 -11,750 3,639 -3.2 25,000,000
0.4822779 3457.3151 -543 27,562,500 5250 1.3125 -6,500 3,800 -1.7 1,000,000
0.4716916 3485.0581 485 18,062,500 4250 1.4166667 -2,250 3,841 -0.6 1,000,000
0.4219608 3110.781 -1,889 250,000 500 0.1 -2,750 3,563 -0.8 4,000,000
0.623288 4983.8636 -16 1,562,500 1250 0.25 -4,000 3,385 -1.2 0
0.8597332 7028.6181 -971 14,062,500 3750 0.46875 -7,750 3,411 -2.3 9,000,000
0.9064976 7693.9955 4,694 5,062,500 2250 0.75 -5,500 3,333 -1.7 25,000,000
1.0729718 8654.053 654 7,562,500 2750 0.34375 -8,250 3,297 -2.5 25,000,000
1.6590395 13418.41 1,418 36,000,000 6000 0.5 -14,250 3,456 -4.1 16,000,000
1.7742752 14316.595 2,317 18,062,500 4250 0.3541667 -18,500 3,500 -5.3 0
2.100583 16759.967 760 52,562,500 7250 0.453125 -25,750 3,697 -7.0 16,000,000
1.1117625 8866.9862 -1,133 4,000,000 2000 0.2 -23,750 3,613 -6.6 36,000,000
0.4071005 3310.1242 1,310 110,250,000 10500 5.25 -13,250 3,940 -3.4 64,000,000
0.5024015 3917.8498 -1,082 25,000,000 5000 1 -8,250 3,989 -2.1 9,000,000
0.4537157 3650.5088 -1,349 10,562,500 3250 0.65 -5,000 3,957 -1.3 0
0.4871902 4109.3969 1,109 6,250,000 2500 0.8333333 -2,500 3,896 -0.6 4,000,000
0.6238327 5148.672 1,149 62,500 250 0.0625 -2,750 3,750 -0.7 1,000,000
0.8913768 7200.9363 1,201 3,062,500 1750 0.2916667 -4,500 3,673 -1.2 4,000,000
0.7474748 5924.5246 -1,075 6,250,000 2500 0.3571429 -7,000 3,630 -1.9 1,000,000
1.05091 8492.4554 -1,508 25,000,000 5000 0.5 -12,000 3,679 -3.3 9,000,000
1.6111835 13315.313 -1,685 68,062,500 8250 0.55 -20,250 3,836 -5.3 25,000,000
1.6954836 14292.224 -708 30,250,000 5500 0.3666667 -25,750 3,892 -6.6 0
2.0747486 17719.176 -281 39,062,500 6250 0.3472222 -32,000 3,968 -8.1 9,000,000
1.1496347 9916.4108 1,916 42,250,000 6500 0.8125 -25,500 4,047 -6.3 100,000,000
0.3618032 3074.4023 -1,926 81,000,000 9000 1.8 -16,500 4,197 -3.9 9,000,000
0.5388619 4943.812 944 56,250,000 7500 1.875 -9,000 4,294 -2.1 1,000,000
0.4973873 4530.8216 531 22,562,500 4750 1.1875 -4,250 4,307 -1.0 0
0.4506932 4097.264 2,097 10,562,500 3250 1.625 -1,000 4,278 -0.2 4,000,000
0.5853973 5046.7806 47 1,562,500 1250 0.25 -2,250 4,196 -0.5 9,000,000
0.850558 7320.7249 321 10,562,500 3250 0.4642857 -5,500 4,171 -1.3 4,000,000
0.7834575 6702.9144 -3,297 30,250,000 5500 0.55 -11,000 4,205 -2.6 9,000,000
1.1004008 9955.1692 -4,045 64,000,000 8000 0.5714286 -19,000 4,300 -4.4 16,000,000
1.6655356 15919.88 -80 49,000,000 7000 0.4375 -26,000 4,366 -6.0 4,000,000
1.718042 16679.038 679 18,062,500 4250 0.265625 -30,250 4,363 -6.9 0
2.0836126 20431.238 431 36,000,000 6000 0.3 -36,250 4,401 -8.2 16,000,000
1.0884655 10795.271 -1,205 20,250,000 4500 0.375 -31,750 4,403 -7.2 64,000,000
0.4193814 4270.8105 -729 121,000,000 11000 2.2 -20,750 4,550 -4.6 49,000,000
0.5105456 5384.8659 3,385 126,562,500 11250 5.625 -9,500 4,696 -2.0 9,000,000
0.4814671 4786.5034 1,787 45,562,500 6750 2.25 -2,750 4,739 -0.6 1,000,000
0.385045 3678.505 1,679 12,250,000 3500 1.75 750 4,714 0.2 1,000,000
0.5839309 5263.163 -1,737 16,000,000 4000 0.5714286 -3,250 4,699 -0.7 25,000,000
0.8404526 7787.6962 1,788 6,250,000 2500 0.4166667 -5,750 4,655 -1.2 1,000,000
0.8826302 7913.7759 -86 12,250,000 3500 0.4375 -9,250 4,632 -2.0 4,000,000
1.216404 10814.576 815 18,062,500 4250 0.425 -13,500 4,625 -2.9 4,000,000
1.6677976 14551.481 -5,449 150,062,500 12250 0.6125 -25,750 4,769 -5.4 100,000,000
1.6990796 15322.839 -4,677 81,000,000 9000 0.45 -34,750 4,847 -7.2 0
2.0717133 19298.648 -2,701 56,250,000 7500 0.3409091 -42,250 4,895 -8.6 4,000,000
1.1209005 10641.262 2,641 100,000,000 10000 1.25 -32,250 4,987 -6.5 196,000,000
0.43839 4058.8434 4,059
0.4180843 3871.1214 3,871
0.4310665 3991.6124 3,992
0.3353389 3105.412 3,105
0.6342968 5874.3401 5,874
0.7871379 7290.3536 7,290
0.8852239 8199.4007 8,199
1.1914783 11036.88 11,037
1.8303203 16955.809 16,956
1.8349618 17000.028 17,000
2.14893 19910.221 19,910
1.0438697 9672.3346 9,672
mple exponential
MAD 3,004 MAPE TS
ABS MADt 53.43 bias TS

6,217 6,217 3.11 6,217 1.00

1,000 3,608 0.33 5,217 1.45
0 2,406 0.00 5,217 2.17
0 1,804 0.00 5,217 2.89
1,000 1,643 0.25 4,217 2.57
2,000 1,703 0.33 2,217 1.30
1,000 1,602 0.14 1,217 0.76
1,000 1,527 0.17 2,217 1.45
4,000 1,802 0.40 -1,783 -0.99
2,000 1,822 0.17 -3,783 -2.08
2,000 1,838 0.14 -5,783 -3.15
6,000 2,185 0.75 217 0.10
5,000 2,401 1.67 5,217 2.17
1,000 2,301 0.25 4,217 1.83
1,000 2,214 0.33 5,217 2.36
2,000 2,201 0.40 3,217 1.46
0 2,072 0.00 3,217 1.55
3,000 2,123 0.38 217 0.10
5,000 2,275 1.67 5,217 2.29
5,000 2,411 0.63 217 0.09
4,000 2,487 0.33 -3,783 -1.52
0 2,373 0.00 -3,783 -1.59
4,000 2,444 0.25 -7,783 -3.18
6,000 2,592 0.60 -1,783 -0.69
8,000 2,809 4.00 6,217 2.21
3,000 2,816 0.60 3,217 1.14
0 2,712 0.00 3,217 1.19
2,000 2,686 0.67 5,217 1.94
1,000 2,628 0.25 4,217 1.60
2,000 2,607 0.33 2,217 0.85
1,000 2,555 0.14 1,217 0.48
3,000 2,569 0.30 -1,783 -0.69
5,000 2,643 0.33 -6,783 -2.57
0 2,565 0.00 -6,783 -2.64
3,000 2,578 0.17 -9,783 -3.80
10,000 2,784 1.25 217 0.08
3,000 2,790 0.60 3,217 1.15
1,000 2,743 0.25 4,217 1.54
0 2,672 0.00 4,217 1.58
2,000 2,655 1.00 6,217 2.34
3,000 2,664 0.60 3,217 1.21
2,000 2,648 0.29 1,217 0.46
3,000 2,656 0.30 -1,783 -0.67
4,000 2,687 0.29 -5,783 -2.15
 2,000 2,671 0.13 -7,783 -2.91
0 2,613 0.00 -7,783 -2.98
4,000 2,643 0.20 -11,783 -4.46
8,000 2,755 0.67 -3,783 -1.37
7,000 2,841 1.40 3,217 1.13
3,000 2,844 1.50 6,217 2.19
1,000 2,808 0.33 5,217 1.86
1,000 2,773 0.50 6,217 2.24
5,000 2,815 0.71 1,217 0.43
1,000 2,782 0.17 2,217 0.80
2,000 2,768 0.25 217 0.08
2,000 2,754 0.20 -1,783 -0.65
10,000 2,881 0.50 -11,783 -4.09
0 2,831 0.00 -11,783 -4.16
2,000 2,817 0.09 -13,783 -4.89
14,000 3,004 1.75 217 0.07
 alpha 0.1

Tháng demand level forecast

0 8,217
1 2,000 7,595.00 8,217
2 3,000 7,135.50 7,595
3 3,000 6,721.95 7,136
4 3,000 6,349.76 6,722
5 4,000 6,114.78 6,350
6 6,000 6,103.30 6,115
7 7,000 6,192.97 6,103
8 6,000 6,173.67 6,193
9 10,000 6,556.31 6,174
10 12,000 7,100.68 6,556
11 14,000 7,790.61 7,101
12 8,000 7,811.55 7,791
13 3,000 7,330.39 7,812
14 4,000 6,997.35 7,330
15 3,000 6,597.62 6,997
16 5,000 6,437.86 6,598
17 5,000 6,294.07 6,438
18 8,000 6,464.66 6,294
19 3,000 6,118.20 6,465
20 8,000 6,306.38 6,118
21 12,000 6,875.74 6,306
22 12,000 7,388.17 6,876
23 16,000 8,249.35 7,388
24 10,000 8,424.41 8,249
25 2,000 7,781.97 8,424
26 5,000 7,503.78 7,782
27 5,000 7,253.40 7,504
28 3,000 6,828.06 7,253
29 4,000 6,545.25 6,828
30 6,000 6,490.73 6,545
31 7,000 6,541.65 6,491
32 10,000 6,887.49 6,542
33 15,000 7,698.74 6,887
34 15,000 8,428.87 7,699
35 18,000 9,385.98 8,429
36 8,000 9,247.38 9,386
37 5,000 8,822.64 9,247
38 4,000 8,340.38 8,823
39 4,000 7,906.34 8,340
40 2,000 7,315.71 7,906
41 5,000 7,084.14 7,316
42 7,000 7,075.72 7,084
43 10,000 7,368.15 7,076
44 14,000 8,031.34 7,368
45 16,000 8,828.20 8,031
46 16,000 9,545.38 8,828
47 20,000 10,590.84 9,545
48 12,000 10,731.76 10,591
49 5,000 10,158.58 10,732
50 2,000 9,342.72 10,159
51 3,000 8,708.45 9,343
52 2,000 8,037.61 8,708
53 7,000 7,933.85 8,038
54 6,000 7,740.46 7,934
55 8,000 7,766.42 7,740
56 10,000 7,989.77 7,766
57 20,000 9,190.80 7,990
58 20,000 10,271.72 9,191
59 22,000 11,444.55 10,272
60 8,000 11,100.09 11,445
11,100
62 -
63 -
64 -
65 -
66 -
67 -
68 -
69 -
70 -
71 -
72 -
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.981309
R Square 0.962966
Adjusted R 0.953708
Standard E 224883.4
Observatio 6

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 5.26E+12 5.26E+12 104.0103 0.000521
Residual 4 2.02E+11 5.06E+10
Total 5 5.46E+12

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 2604842 209355.1 12.44222 0.00024 2023579 3186105 2023579 3186105
X Variable 548247.4 53757.42 10.19854 0.000521 398992.9 697501.9 398992.9 697501.9
 alpha 0.1 beta 0.2
year visitors L T forecast error
0 2604842 548247.4
1 3417774 3179558 553541.1 3153089 -264685
2 3511513 3710940 549109.4 3733099 221585.9
3 4208095 4254854 548070.3 4260050 51954.68
4 4627478 4785380 544561.4 4802924 175446.5
5 5247125 5321660 542905 5329941 82816.2
6 6130262 5891134 548219 5864565 -265697
6439353
6987572
7535791
L0 2604842
T0 548247.4