Most Probable Error

From the theory of probability a basic assumption is that the most probable value ( mpv ) of a
group of repeated measurements made under similar conditions is the arithmetic mean or
average. Most probable value refers to a given quantity which, based on available data, has
more chances being correct than the other.
Since the true values of measured quantities must be remain forever unknown, it is possible to
obtain by measurements only approximations of true values. Therefore, if a given quantity is
measured more than one time, resulting in more than one value, not all the derived values are
correct. There is only one correct value that should be considered and is determined by using
the following equation.

mpv = X̅ =

where:
mpv or X̅ = the most probable value
= is the sum of individual measurements

n = total number of observations made

Residual
The residual, which sometimes referred to as deviation, is defined as the difference between
any measured value of a quantity and its most probable value or

v = x - x̅
Where:
v = residual measurement
x = measurement made of a particular quantity
x̅ = is the most probable value of the quantity measured.

Probable Error
The probable error is a quantity which, when added to and subtracted from the most probable
error, defines a range within which there is a 50% chance that the true value of the measured
quantity lies inside (or outside) the limits thus set.
The probable error is calculated with the use of the following formula which are derived from
the method of least squares.
Where:
= probable error of any single measurement of a series

= probable error of the mean

= summation of the squares of the residuals

n = number of observations

Weighted Observation
It is not always possible to obtain measurements of equal reliability under similar conditions.
Many surveying measurements are made under different circumstances and conditions and
therefore have different degrees of reliability. The problem often encountered is how to
combine these measurements and determine the most probable values. For such situation it is
necessary to estimate the degree of reliability (or weight) for each of the measurements
before they are combined and the most probable values are determined.

Interrelationship of Errors
1. Summation of Errors – if several measured quantities are added, each of which is
affected by accidental errors, the probable error of the sum is given by the square root
of the sum of the squares of the separate errors arising from the several sources

Where:

= probable error of the sum

= probable error of each measurement

n = number of values added

2. Product of Errors – for a measured quantity which determined as the product of two
other independently measured quantities such as and (with their corresponding
probable errors), the probable error of the product is given by the following equation

Where:

= probable error of the product

= measured quantities
= probable error corresponding to each quantity measured
Illustrative Problems:
Probable Error
1. A surveying instructor sent out six groups of students to measure a distance between
two points marked on the ground. The students came up with the following six different
values: 250.25, 250.15, 249.90, 251.04, 250.50, and 251.22 meters. Assuming these
values are equally reliable and that variations result from accidental errors, Determine
the most probable value of the distance measured.

2. The following values were determined in a series of tape measurements of a line:

1000.58, 1000.40, 1000.38, 1000.48, 1000.40, and 1000.46. Determine the following:

a) Most probable error of the measured length

b) Probable error of a single measurement and probable error of the mean
c) Final expression for the most probable length
d) Relative precision of the measurement

Weighted Measurement
1. Four measurements of a distance were recorded as 284.18, 284.19, 284.22, and 284.20
and given weights of 1, 3, 2, and 4, respectively. Determine the weighted mean.

2. It is desired to determine the most probable value of an angle which has been measured
at different times by different observers with equal care. The values observed were as
follows: 74° 39’ 45” (in two measurements), 74° 39’ 27” (in four measurements), and
74° 39’ 35” (in six measurements).

3. Lines of levels to establish the elevation of a point are run over four different routes.
The observed elevations of the point with probable errors are given below. Determine
the most probable value of the elevation of the point

LINE OBSERVED PROBABLE W= RELATIVE P = ELEV

ELEVATION ERROR (E) WEIGHT (RW)
(ELEV) (RW)
1 219.832 m 0.006 m
2 219.930 m 0.012 m
3 219.701 m 0.018 m
4 220.021 m 0.024 m

Summation of Errors
1. The three sides of a triangular- shaped tract of land is given by the following
measurements and corresponding probable errors: a = 162.54 0.03 m, b = 234.26
0.05 m, and c = 195.70 0.04 m. Determine the probable value of the perimeter.
Product of Errors
1. The two sides of a rectangular lot were measured with certain estimated probable
errors as follows:
W = 253.36 0.06 m and L = 624.15 0.08 m. Determine the area of the lot and the
probable error in the resulting calculation.