Global Demography: The Demographic Transition

 Introduction

 Population Processes and Measures

 Historical Trends
 Implications
      Causes of mortality, fertility declines

 Longevity bound and fertility bound

 Consequences of aging
 Carrying capacity of the planet

I. Population Processes and Measures

• Population Balancing Equation:

Pt+1-Pt=(B-D)+(I-E)
•Where Pt+1 is the population at end of the time period, Pt is the population at the beginning of
the time period, B equals births, D equals deaths, I equals immigration, and E equals
emigration.
• The quantity (B-D) is called the natural increase of the population while (I-E) is net-migration.
• Population growth over a specified area per period is only possible when the natural increase
or net migration is positive or both are.

• The crude birth rate or the general fertility rate is the number of births per 1000 persons for a
given time period, usually a year.
• The crude death rate or the mortality rate is the number of deaths per 1000 persons for a given
time period.
• The difference between the birth and death rates is called the rate of natural increase of a
population. For the whole world, this would equal the growth rate of world population. For
smaller areas of the globe, net migration rates will blunt or add to the natural rate of
increase.

• Alternative measures that are commonly used to indicate the tendency for births and deaths to
occur are total fertility rates and life expectancy at birth, respectively.
• The total fertility rate is the expected number of births a woman may expect if she follows
trends in age-specific fertility rates in a given period. Age specific fertility rates are the birth rates
computed for
specific age ranges.
• Life expectancy at birth is the average number of additional years a person could expect to live
if he or she follows the trends in age-specific death rates in a given period.