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Calculating Poker Probabilities With A Simple Excel Spreadsheet - Poker Savvy
Calculating Poker Probabilities With A Simple Excel Spreadsheet - Poker Savvy
Calculating Poker Probabilities With A Simple Excel Spreadsheet - Poker Savvy
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Poker is a game of probabilities. Every time when you put money into the pot, you have to ask yourself: what are my odds to scoop the pot? How much to call this bet? How much to bet so that my opponent can not profitably call with his draw? A lot of questions that are posted on poker forums are of the type: what is the chance THIS or THAT happens? Here are a couple of examples: 1) I have KK and my opponent calls my raise with an Ace. What is the chance that he pairs his ace on the flop? 2) I have a couple of small suited cards. What is the chance that exactly three cards of that suit appear on the board (and not four, because that would mean trouble). 3) I have two unpaired cards. What is the chance that I flop two pair or trips? 4) My opponent raises and could have any tw o cards doing that. I have a small pair, what is the chance that I flop a set? 5) My opponent raises and I know he only does that w ith AA/KK/QQ or AK. I have a small pair, what is the chance I flop a set? 6) I have QJ on a T62 flop. What is the chance I make a straight by the river? For those among you w ith little affinity for mathematics, these questions could be above your head. So Im going to provide you with a simple tool that can make these calculations for you. Create an Excel spreadsheet like this: In cell H2: the number of unknow n cards remaining in the deck, In cell H3: the number of outs remaining in the deck, In cell H4: the number of cards to draw , In cell H5: the number of outs you want to draw in those cards, In cell H6: the probability that this happens. Paste into this cell the following formula: =FACT(H2-H4)*FACT(H3)*FACT(H2H3)*FACT(H4)/FACT(H2)/FACT(H3-H5)/FACT(H2-H3H4+H5)/FACT(H5)/FACT(H4-H5) Of course you can use other cells in the spreadsheet to store the data, but make sure you adjust the formula accordingly. Now lets tackle the problems. 1) I have KK and my opponent has Ax, so there are 48 cards remaining in the deck (H2=48). Three of these are aces (H3=3), we w ill draw three cards (the flop, H4=3) and we want to know the chance that one ace appears (H5=1). In H6 the probability appears: 0.1717 or 17.17%. 2) 50 cards remain in the deck (H2=50), 11 are of that suit (H3=11), draw 5 cards (H4=5) and draw exactly three of that suit (H5=3). The chance is 5.77% 3) Were getting the hang of it. H2=50, H3=6, H4=3 and H5=2. The chance is 3.37%. This is a pretty important number for those among you that call raises w ith stuff like suited connectors. At least 1 in 30 times the flop will make you happy (add to this the flops that give you straights/flushes or a good draw).
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Comments (4)
This should be a welcome help for many players who are in the process of mastering this game. Well written, concise stuff. Rating: by KingCur on November 27, 2007 (login to reply)
This looks really cool. First off, I think the easiest thing to get going is to download the example spreadsheet. I'll assume you know very little about Excel. This is very great. excel development Rating: by ExcelT8 on July 11, 2010 (login to reply)
Somethings wrong here, I tried to put in the following which would replicate having a four flush by the flop and catching the 5 card flush on either the turn OR the river of which the sum/formula is: Turn Number of unseen cards = (47) minus number of outs = (9) which totals to (38) then do 38/47 to = 0.808 or (80.8%) River Then the Number of unseen cards = (46) minus number of outs = ( which totals to (37) then do 37/46 to = 0.804 or (80.4%)
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(80.4%) Final Equation Then Times 0.808 x 0.804 to equal = 0.649 or (64.9%) Chance of NOT hitting your flush meaning a 35.1% Chance of hitting your flush (There or there abouts) on either the turn OR the river. However your formula in a spreadsheet shows the following..... Unknown Cards - 47 No. of Outs - 9 Cards to Draw - 2 Outs Needed - 1 Answer - 31.64% I tried to work it out but cant, any ideas whats wrong here??? As it shows 31.64% instead of 35.1% Rating: by martynardelli on September 23, 2010 (login to reply)
marty, your calculation resulting in 35.1% includes those times when you hit your flush card on both the turn and river, whereas the spreadsheet calculation requires you must only hit one of your flush cards. Rating: by yekulrd on February 5, 2011 (login to reply)
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