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?-4-= ZCGtxlw ipClElGtyr SACpECwlypF - - - - - - - - - %“=
MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %“4
PKpEntFpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %“4
4 MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy 02–

4-% TyGEzoHnGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %“–
4-= ftpnpJtFp fzwAyzxtlwF lyo iCwtypF - - - - - - - - - - - - - %?%
4-=-% YlGHElw NHmtn iCwtypF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %??
4-=-= PKlxCwp9 izHGs LqEtnly SplEG OtFplFp ’NzyGtyHpo(%?[
4-=-“ PKlxCwp9 fszypxp hpnzrytGtzy - - - - - - - - - %?]
4-“ QtwGpEtyr lyo QplGHEp PKGElnGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %4$
4-? ixzzGstyr iCwtypF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %4%
4-?-% OprEppF zq QEppozx lyo ixzzGspE XlGEtnpF - - - %4“
4-4 LHGzxlGtn ipwpnGtzy zq Gsp ixzzGstyr flElxpGpEF - - - - %4[
4-4-% QtKtyr Gsp OprEppF zq QEppozx - - - - - - - - - - %4]
4-4-= jsp MtlF8alEtlynp jElopzΓ - - - - - - - - - - - - %4]
4-[ YzyClElxpGEtn zrtFGtn hprEpFFtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - %[%
4-fi XHwGtotxpyFtzylw iCwtypF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %[=
4-] hprHwlEtBlGtzy lyo hpCEzoHntyr VpEypw StwmpEG iClnpF - %[fi
4-]-% iClnpF zq QHynGtzyF RpypElGpo mA VpEypwF - - - %[]
4-]-= PKlxCwpF zq hVSi - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %fi$
4-– blIpwpG ixzzGstyr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %fi?
4-–-% blIpwpG MlFpF lyo Gsp blIpwpG jElyFqzEx - - - %fi[
4-–-= LolCGtIp blIpwpG QtwGpEtyr - - - - - - - - - - - - %fi–
MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %]%
PKpEntFpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %]%
LCCpyotK9 NzxCHGlGtzylw NzyFtopElGtzyF qzE iCwtypF - - - - - - %][
LCCpyotK9 M!FCwtypF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %][
LCCpyotK9 NzxCHGlGtzyF qzE ixzzGstyr iCwtypF - - - - - %]–
KIt NzyGpyGF
5 VpEypw ixzzGstyr XpGszoF 0–0

[-% Zyp!OtxpyFtzylw VpEypw ixzzGspEF - - - - - - - - - - - - %–=
[-%-% znlw typlE hprEpFFtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - %–?
[-%-= znlw fzwAyzxtlw hprEpFFtzy - - - - - - - - - - - %–fi
[-= ipwpnGtyr Gsp btoGs zq Gsp VpEypw - - - - - - - - - - - - - %–]
[-“ znlw hprEpFFtzy ty ThC - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =$$
[-? iGEHnGHEpo znlw hprEpFFtzy XzopwF ty ThC - - - - - - - - =$%
[-?-% iGEHnGHEpo VpEypwF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =$“
[-?-= iGEHnGHEpo hprEpFFtzy QHynGtzyF - - - - - - - - - =$“
[-4 znlw tvpwtszzo lyo ZGspE XzopwF - - - - - - - - - - - - =$4
[-[ VpEypw OpyFtGA PFGtxlGtzy lyo NwlFFt¨nlGtzy - - - - - - - =$]
[-[-% VpEypw OpyFtGA PFGtxlGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - =$]
[-[-= VpEypw OpyFtGA NwlFFt¨nlGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - =%$
[-[-“ jsp YltIp MlApF NwlFFt¨pE - - - - - - - - - - - - =%$
[-fi hlotlw MlFtF QHynGtzyF lyo VpEypwF - - - - - - - - - - - - =%=
[-] XtKGHEp XzopwF qzE OpyFtGA PFGtxlGtzy lyo NwlFFt¨nlGtzy =%?
[-– NzxCHGlGtzylw NzyFtopElGtzyF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =%[
MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =%[
PKpEntFpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =%[
fi Xzopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy ˆ0–

fi-% TyGEzoHnGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =%–
fi-= MtlF+ alEtlynp lyo Xzopw NzxCwpKtGA - - - - - - - - - - - =%–
fi-“ jsp MtlF8alEtlynp OpnzxCzFtGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - ==“
fi-“-% PKlxCwp9 MtlF8alEtlynp jElopzΓ - - - - - - - - ==[
fi-? ZCGtxtFx zq Gsp jEltytyr PEEzE hlGp - - - - - - - - - - - ==]
fi-4 PFGtxlGpF zq Ty!ilxCwp fEpotnGtzy PEEzE - - - - - - - - - - =“$
fi-[ jsp PΓpnGtIp YHxmpE zq flElxpGpEF - - - - - - - - - - - - =“=
fi-fi jsp MlApFtly LCCEzlns lyo MTN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =““
fi-] XtytxHx OpFnEtCGtzy pyrGs - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =“4
fi-– alCytv8NspEIzypyvtF OtxpyFtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =“fi
fi-–-% PKlxCwp ’NzyGtyHpo( - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =“–
fi-%$ NEzFF!alwtolGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =?%
fi-%$-% V!Qzwo NEzFF!alwtolGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - =?%
fi-%$-= jsp bEzyr lyo htrsG blA
Gz Oz NEzFF!IlwtolGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =?4
fi-%$-“ OzpF NEzFF!alwtolGtzy hplwwA bzEv¯ - - - - - - - =?fi
fi-%% MzzGFGElC XpGszoF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =?–
fi-%%-% PKlxCwp ’NzyGtyHpo( - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =4=
fi-%= NzyotGtzylw zE PKCpnGpo jpFG PEEzE¯ - - - - - - - - - - - - =4?
MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =4fi
PKpEntFpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =4fi
7 Xzopw TyDpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr ˆ50

]-% TyGEzoHnGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =[%
NzyGpyGF KItt
]-= jsp MzzGFGElC lyo XlKtxHx tvpwtszzo XpGszoF - - - - =[%

]-=-% L ixzzGstyr PKlxCwp - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =[%
]-=-= XlKtxHx tvpwtszzo TyqpEpynp - - - - - - - - - - =[4
]-=-“ MzzGFGElC IpEFHF XlKtxHx tvpwtszzo - - - - - =[fi
]-“ MlApFtly XpGszoF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =[fi
]-? hpwlGtzyFstC MpGJppy Gsp MzzGFGElC
lyo MlApFtly TyqpEpynp - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =fi%
]-4 jsp PX LwrzEtGsx - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =fi=
]-4-% jJz!NzxCzypyG XtKGHEp Xzopw - - - - - - - - - =fi=
]-4-= jsp PX LwrzEtGsx ty RpypElw - - - - - - - - - - =fi[
]-4-“ PX lF l XlKtxtBlGtzy8XlKtxtBlGtzy fEznpoHEp =fifi
]-[ XNXN qzE ilxCwtyr qEzx Gsp fzFGpEtzE - - - - - - - - - - =fi–
]-fi Mlrrtyr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =]=
]-fi-% PKlxCwp9 jEppF JtGs itxHwlGpo OlGl - - - - - - =]“
]-] Xzopw LIpElrtyr lyo iGlnvtyr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =]]
]-– iGznslFGtn iplEns9 MHxCtyr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =–$
MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =–=
PKpEntFpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =–“
– LootGtIp XzopwFW uEppFW lyo hpwlGpo XpGszoF ˆ–4

–-% RpypElwtBpo LootGtIp XzopwF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =–4
–-%-% QtGGtyr LootGtIp XzopwF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - =–fi
–-%-= PKlxCwp9 LootGtIp zrtFGtn hprEpFFtzy - - - - - =––
–-%-“ iHxxlEA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “$?
–-= jEpp!MlFpo XpGszoF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “$4
–-=-% MlnvrEzHyo - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “$4
–-=-= hprEpFFtzy jEppF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “$fi
–-=-“ NwlFFt¨nlGtzy jEppF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “$]
–-=-? ZGspE TFFHpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “%$
–-=-4 iClx PKlxCwp ’NzyGtyHpo( - - - - - - - - - - - “%“
–-“ fhTX9 MHxC SHyGtyr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “%fi
–-“-% iClx PKlxCwp ’NzyGtyHpo( - - - - - - - - - - - “=$
–-? XLhi9 XHwGtIlEtlGp LolCGtIp hprEpFFtzy iCwtypF - - - - - “=%
–-?-% iClx PKlxCwp ’NzyGtyHpo( - - - - - - - - - - - “=[
–-?-= PKlxCwp ’itxHwlGpo OlGl( - - - - - - - - - - - - “=fi
–-?-“ ZGspE TFFHpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “=]
–-4 StpElEnstnlw XtKGHEpF zq PKCpEGF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “=–
–-[ XtFFtyr OlGl - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ““=
–-fi NzxCHGlGtzylw NzyFtopElGtzyF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ““?
MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ““?
PKpEntFpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ““4
0. MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp uEppF 22fi

%$-% MzzFGtyr XpGszoF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ““fi
%$-%-% ZHGwtyp zq jstF NslCGpE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “?$
KIttt NzyGpyGF
%$-= MzzFGtyr QtGF ly LootGtIp Xzopw - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “?%

%$-“ QzEJlEo iGlrpJtFp LootGtIp Xzopwtyr - - - - - - - - - - - “?=
%$-? PKCzypyGtlw zFF lyo LolMzzFG - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “?“
%$-4 bsA PKCzypyGtlw zFF¯ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “?4
%$-[ zFF QHynGtzyF lyo hzmHFGypFF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “?[
%$-fi ˜ZΓ!Gsp!ispwq˙ fEznpoHEpF qzE OlGl Xtytyr - - - - - - - - “4$
%$-] PKlxCwp9 iClx OlGl - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “4=
%$-– MzzFGtyr jEppF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “4“
%$-%$ YHxpEtnlw ZCGtxtBlGtzy Itl RElotpyG MzzFGtyr - - - - - - “4]
%$-%$-% iGppCpFG OpFnpyG - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “4]
%$-%$-= RElotpyG MzzFGtyr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “4–
%$-%$-“ TxCwpxpyGlGtzyF zq RElotpyG MzzFGtyr - - - - - - “[$
%$-%% htrsG!itBpo jEppF qzE MzzFGtyr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “[%
%$-%= hprHwlEtBlGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “[?
%$-%=-% isEtyvlrp - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “[?
%$-%=-= iHmFlxCwtyr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “[4
%$-%“ TyGpECEpGlGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “[fi
%$-%“-% hpwlGtIp TxCzEGlynp zq fEpotnGzE alEtlmwpF - - - “[fi
%$-%“-= flEGtlw OpCpyopynp fwzGF - - - - - - - - - - - - - “[–
%$-%? TwwHFGElGtzyF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “fi%
%$-%?-% NlwtqzEytl SzHFtyr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “fi%
%$-%?-= YpJ eplwlyo QtFs - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “fi4
%$-%?-“ OpxzrElCstnF OlGl - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “fi–
MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “]$
PKpEntFpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “]?
00 YpHElw YpGUzEvF 27–

%%-% TyGEzoHnGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “]–
%%-= fEzupnGtzy fHEFHtG hprEpFFtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “]–
%%-“ YpHElw YpGJzEvF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “–=
%%-? QtGGtyr YpHElw YpGJzEvF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “–4
%%-4 izxp TFFHpF ty jEltytyr YpHElw YpGJzEvF - - - - - - - - - “–fi
%%-4-% iGlEGtyr alwHpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “–fi
%%-4-= ZIpE¨GGtyr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “–]
%%-4-“ inlwtyr zq Gsp TyCHGF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - “–]
%%-4-? YHxmpE zq Stoopy kytGF lyo lApEF - - - - - - - ?$$
%%-4-4 XHwGtCwp Xtytxl - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?$$
%%-[ PKlxCwp9 itxHwlGpo OlGl - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?$%
%%-fi PKlxCwp9 eTf Nzop OlGl - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?$?
%%-] OtFnHFFtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?$]
%%-– MlApFtly YpHElw YpGF lyo Gsp YTfi =$$“ Nslwwpyrp - - - ?$–
%%-–-% MlApF+ MzzFGtyr lyo Mlrrtyr - - - - - - - - - - - ?%$
%%-–-= fpEqzExlynp NzxClEtFzyF - - - - - - - - - - - - ?%=
%%-%$ NzxCHGlGtzylw NzyFtopElGtzyF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?%?
MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?%4
NzyGpyGF KtK
PKpEntFpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?%4
0ˆ iHCCzEG apnGzE XlnstypF lyo

QwpKtmwp OtFnEtxtylyGF 30fi
%=-% TyGEzoHnGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?%fi
%=-= jsp iHCCzEG apnGzE NwlFFt¨pE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?%fi
%=-=-% NzxCHGtyr Gsp iHCCzEG apnGzE NwlFFt¨pE - - - - ?=$
%=-=-= XtKGHEp PKlxCwp ’NzyGtyHpo( - - - - - - - - - - ?=%
%=-“ iHCCzEG apnGzE XlnstypF lyo VpEypwF - - - - - - - - - - - ?=“
%=-“-% NzxCHGtyr Gsp iaX qzE NwlFFt¨nlGtzy - - - - - - ?=“
%=-“-= jsp iaX lF l fpylwtBlGtzy XpGszo - - - - - - - ?=[
%=-“-“ QHynGtzy PFGtxlGtzy lyo hpCEzoHntyr VpEypwF - ?=]
%=-“-? iaXF lyo Gsp NHEFp zq OtxpyFtzylwtGA - - - - - ?“%
%=-“-4 L flGs LwrzEtGsx qzE Gsp iaX NwlFFt¨pE - - - - ?“=
%=-“-[ iHCCzEG apnGzE XlnstypF qzE hprEpFFtzy - - - - - ?“?
%=-“-fi hprEpFFtzy lyo VpEypwF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?“[
%=-“-] OtFnHFFtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?“]
%=-? RpypElwtBtyr typlE OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF - - - - - - - - ?“]
%=-4 QwpKtmwp OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ??$
%=-4-% NzxCHGtyr Gsp QOL PFGtxlGpF - - - - - - - - - - ???
%=-[ fpylwtBpo OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ??[
%=-fi XtKGHEp OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ??–
%=-fi-% PKlxCwp9 blIpqzEx OlGl - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?4%
MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?44
PKpEntFpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?44
02 fEzGzGACp XpGszoF lyo YplEpFG,YptrsmzEF 34–

%“-% TyGEzoHnGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?4–
%“-= fEzGzGACp XpGszoF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?4–
%“-=-% V!xplyF NwHFGpEtyr - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?[$
%“-=-= plEytyr apnGzE gHlyGtBlGtzy - - - - - - - - - - ?[=
%“-=-“ RlHFFtly XtKGHEpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?[“
%“-“ v!YplEpFG!YptrsmzE NwlFFt¨pEF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?[“
%“-“-% PKlxCwp9 L NzxClElGtIp iGHoA - - - - - - - - - ?[]
%“-“-= PKlxCwp9 v!YplEpFG!YptrsmzEF
lyo Txlrp inpyp NwlFFt¨nlGtzy - - - - - - - - - - ?fi$
%“-“-“ TyIlEtlyG XpGEtnF lyo jlyrpyG OtFGlynp - - - - - ?fi%
%“-? LolCGtIp YplEpFG!YptrsmzE XpGszoF - - - - - - - - - - - - ?fi4
%“-?-% PKlxCwp - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?fi]
%“-?-= Rwzmlw OtxpyFtzy hpoHnGtzy
qzE YplEpFG!YptrsmzEF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?fi–
%“-4 NzxCHGlGtzylw NzyFtopElGtzyF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?]$
MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?]%
PKpEntFpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?]%
KK NzyGpyGF
03 kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr 374

%?-% TyGEzoHnGtzy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?]4
%?-= LFFzntlGtzy hHwpF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?]fi
%?-=-% XlEvpG MlFvpG LylwAFtF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?]]
%?-=-= jsp LCEtzEt LwrzEtGsx - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ?]–
%?-=-“ PKlxCwp9 XlEvpG MlFvpG LylwAFtF - - - - - - - - ?–=
%?-=-? kyFHCpEItFpo lF iHCpEItFpo plEytyr - - - - - - ?–4
%?-=-4 RpypElwtBpo LFFzntlGtzy hHwpF - - - - - - - - - - ?–fi
%?-=-[ Nsztnp zq iHCpEItFpo plEytyr XpGszo - - - - - ?––
%?-=-fi PKlxCwp9 XlEvpG MlFvpG LylwAFtF ’NzyGtyHpo( - ?––
%?-“ NwHFGpE LylwAFtF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4$%
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SIDW299104
SIDW380102
SID73161
GNAL
H.sapiensmR
SID325394
RASGTPASE
SID207172
ESTs
SIDW377402
HumanmRNA
SIDW469884
ESTs
SID471915
MYBPROTO
ESTsChr.1
SID377451
DNAPOLYME
SID375812
SIDW31489
SID167117
SIDW470459
SIDW487261
Homosapiens
SIDW376586
Chr
MITOCHOND
SID47116
ESTsChr.6
SIDW296310
SID488017
SID305167
ESTsChr.3
SID127504
SID289414
PTPRC
SIDW298203
SIDW310141
SIDW376928
ESTsCh31
SID114241
SID377419
SID297117
SIDW201620
SIDW279664
SIDW510534
HLACLASSI
SIDW203464
SID239012
SIDW205716
SIDW376776
HYPOTHETIC
WASWiskott
SIDW321854
ESTsChr.15
SIDW376394
SID280066
ESTsChr.5
SIDW488221
SID46536
SIDW257915
ESTsChr.2
SIDW322806
SID200394
ESTsChr.15
SID284853
SID485148
SID297905
ESTs
SIDW486740
SMALLNUC
ESTs
SIDW366311
SIDW357197
SID52979
ESTs
SID43609
SIDW416621
ERLUMEN
TUPLE1TUP1
SIDW428642
SID381079
SIDW298052
SIDW417270
SIDW362471
ESTsChr.15
SIDW321925
SID380265
SIDW308182
SID381508
SID377133
SIDW365099
ESTsChr.10
SIDW325120
SID360097
SID375990
SIDW128368
SID301902
SID31984
SID42354
BREAST
RENAL
MELANOMA
MELANOMA
MCF7D-repro
COLON
COLON
K562B-repro
COLON
NSCLC
LEUKEMIA
RENAL
MELANOMA
BREAST
CNS
CNS
RENAL
MCF7A-repro
NSCLC
K562A-repro
COLON
CNS
NSCLC
NSCLC
LEUKEMIA
CNS
OVARIAN
BREAST
LEUKEMIA
MELANOMA
MELANOMA
OVARIAN
OVARIAN
NSCLC
RENAL
BREAST
MELANOMA
OVARIAN
OVARIAN
NSCLC
RENAL
BREAST
MELANOMA
LEUKEMIA
COLON
BREAST
LEUKEMIA
COLON
CNS
MELANOMA
NSCLC
PROSTATE
NSCLC
RENAL
RENAL
NSCLC
RENAL
LEUKEMIA
OVARIAN
PROSTATE
COLON
BREAST
RENAL
UNKNOWN
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Linear Regression of 0/1 Response
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
oo
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o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o oo oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o oo o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o oo o o oo o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o oo
o o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o
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o o o oo o
o o ooo oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
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o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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o
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o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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QTRIFD 1W1W jsp Flxp nwlFFt6nlGtzy pKlxCwp ty GJz otxpyFtzyF lF ty Qtr,

HEp =-%- jsp nwlFFpF lEp nzopo lF l mtylEA IlEtlmwp ’M kP ˆ /W ehLdRP ˆ %( lyo
Gspy 6G mA %4,yplEpFG,yptrsmzE lIpElrtyr lF ty ’=-fl(- jsp CEpotnGpo nwlFF tF spynp
nszFpy mA xluzEtGA IzGp lxzyrFG Gsp %4,yplEpFG yptrsmzEF-
Ty QtrHEp =-= Jp Fpp GslG qlE qpJpE GEltytyr zmFpEIlGtzyF lEp xtFnwlFFt¨po
Gsly ty QtrHEp =-%- jstF FszHwo yzG rtIp HF Gzz xHns nzxqzEG+ GszHrs+ Ftynp
ty QtrHEp =-“ yzyp zq Gsp GEltytyr olGl lEp xtFnwlFFt¨po- L wtGGwp GszHrsG
FHrrpFGF GslG qzE v!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE ¨GF+ Gsp pEEzE zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl
FszHwo mp lCCEzKtxlGpwA ly tynEplFtyr qHynGtzy zq v+ lyo Jtww lwJlAF mp $
qzE v ˆ %- Ly tyopCpyopyG GpFG FpG JzHwo rtIp HF l xzEp FlGtFqlnGzEA xplyF
qzE nzxClEtyr Gsp otΓpEpyG xpGszoF-
TG lCCplEF GslG v!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE ¨GF slIp l Ftyrwp ClElxpGpE+ Gsp yHx!
mpE zq yptrsmzEF v+ nzxClEpo Gz Gsp C ClElxpGpEF ty wplFG!FDHlEpF ¨GF- Lw!
GszHrs GstF tF Gsp nlFp+ Jp Jtww Fpp GslG Gsp p;pnGtIp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF
zq v!yplEpFG yptrsmzEF tF Y.v lyo tF rpypElwwA mtrrpE Gsly C+ lyo opnEplFpF
JtGs tynEplFtyr v- jz rpG ly topl zq JsA+ yzGp GslG tq Gsp yptrsmzEszzoF
JpEp yzyzIpEwlCCtyr+ GspEp JzHwo mp Y.v yptrsmzEszzoF lyo Jp JzHwo ¨G
zyp ClElxpGpE ’l xply( ty plns yptrsmzEszzo-
TG tF lwFz nwplE GslG Jp nlyyzG HFp FHx!zq!FDHlEpo pEEzEF zy Gsp GEltytyr
FpG lF l nEtGpEtzy qzE Ctnvtyr v+ Ftynp Jp JzHwo lwJlAF Ctnv v ˆ %, TG JzHwo
Fppx GslG v!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE xpGszoF JzHwo mp xzEp lCCEzCEtlGp qzE Gsp
xtKGHEp inpylEtz = opFnEtmpo lmzIp+ Jstwp qzE RlHFFtly olGl Gsp opntFtzy
mzHyolEtpF zq v!yplEpFG yptrsmzEF JzHwo mp HyypnpFFlEtwA yztFA-
%[ =- ZIpEItpU zq iHCpEItFpo plEytyr
1−Nearest Neighbor Classifier
oo
o o o
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o o o oo o o
o oo o o
o oo o
o oo
o o o oo o oo
o o
o o o oo o
o o ooo oo o oo o
o oo oo o ooo o
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o o
o oo ooo
o o o o o o oo
o o o oo o o oo oo
o oo o oo ooo oo o o o
o oo oo oooo
oo oo
o o oo o o
o oooo o oooooo o
o oo o
o o o
o oo o o oo o
o ooo oo o
o o
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o oo
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QTRIFD 1W2W jsp Flxp nwlFFt6nlGtzy pKlxCwp ty GJz otxpyFtzyF lF ty Qtr,

HEp =-%- jsp nwlFFpF lEp nzopo lF l mtylEA IlEtlmwp ’M kP ˆ /W ehLdRP ˆ %(+ lyo
Gspy CEpotnGpo mA %,yplEpFG,yptrsmzE nwlFFt6nlGtzy-
1-“-“ QEzx plFG iDHlEpF Gz dplEpFG dptrsmzEF

jsp wtyplE opntFtzy mzHyolEA qEzx wplFG FDHlEpF tF IpEA FxzzGs+ lyo lC!
ClEpyGwA FGlmwp Gz ¨G- TG ozpF lCCplE Gz EpwA splItwA zy Gsp lFFHxCGtzy
GslG l wtyplE opntFtzy mzHyolEA tF lCCEzCEtlGp- Ty wlyrHlrp Jp Jtww opIpwzC
FszEGwA+ tG slF wzJ IlEtlynp lyo CzGpyGtlwwA strs mtlF-
Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ Gsp v!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE CEznpoHEpF oz yzG lCCplE Gz
EpwA zy lyA FGEtyrpyG lFFHxCGtzyF lmzHG Gsp HyopEwAtyr olGl+ lyo nly lolCG
Gz lyA FtGHlGtzy- SzJpIpE+ lyA ClEGtnHwlE FHmEprtzy zq Gsp opntFtzy mzHyo!
lEA opCpyoF zy l slyoqHw zq tyCHG CztyGF lyo GsptE ClEGtnHwlE CzFtGtzyF+
lyo tF GsHF JtrrwA lyo HyFGlmwp1strs IlEtlynp lyo wzJ mtlF-
Plns xpGszo slF tGF zJy FtGHlGtzyF qzE Jstns tG JzEvF mpFG: ty ClEGtnHwlE
wtyplE EprEpFFtzy tF xzEp lCCEzCEtlGp qzE inpylEtz % lmzIp+ Jstwp yplEpFG
yptrsmzEF lEp xzEp FHtGlmwp qzE inpylEtz =- jsp Gtxp slF nzxp Gz pKCzFp
Gsp zElnwp, jsp olGl ty qlnG JpEp FtxHwlGpo qEzx l xzopw FzxpJspEp mp!
GJppy Gsp GJz+ mHG nwzFpE Gz inpylEtz =- QtEFG Jp rpypElGpo %$ xplyF xv
qEzx l mtIlEtlGp RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy Y ’’%W $(j W T( lyo wlmpwpo GstF nwlFF
M kP- itxtwlEwA+ %$ xzEp JpEp oElJy qEzx Y ’’$W %(j W T( lyo wlmpwpo nwlFF
ehLdRP- jspy qzE plns nwlFF Jp rpypElGpo %$$ zmFpEIlGtzyF lF qzwwzJF9 qzE
plns zmFpEIlGtzy+ Jp Ctnvpo ly xv lG Elyozx JtGs CEzmlmtwtGA %.%$+ lyo
=-“ plFG iDHlEpF lyo YplEpFG YptrsmzEF %fi
k − Number of Nearest Neighbors
151 101 69 45 31 21 11 7 5 3 1
0.30
Linear
0.25
Test Error
0.20
0.15
0.10
Train
Test
Bayes
2 3 5 8 12 18 29 67 200
Degrees of Freedom − N/k
QTRIFD 1W3W ctFnwlFFt6nlGtzy nHEIpF qzE Gsp FtxHwlGtzy pKlxCwp HFpo ty Qtr,
HEpF =-%+ =-= lyo =-“- L Ftyrwp GEltytyr FlxCwp zq FtBp =// JlF HFpo+ lyo l GpFG
FlxCwp zq FtBp %/W ///- jsp zElyrp nHEIpF lEp GpFG lyo Gsp mwHp lEp GEltytyr pE,
EzE qzE v,yplEpFG,yptrsmzE nwlFFt6nlGtzy- jsp EpFHwGF qzE wtyplE EprEpFFtzy lEp Gsp
mtrrpE zElyrp lyo mwHp FDHlEpF lG GsEpp oprEppF zq qEppozx- jsp CHECwp wtyp tF Gsp
zCGtxlw MlApF pEEzE ElGp-
Gspy rpypElGpo l Y ’xv W T.4(+ GsHF wplotyr Gz l xtKGHEp zq RlHFFtly nwHF!

GpEF qzE plns nwlFF- QtrHEp =-? FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF zq nwlFFtqAtyr %$+$$$ ypJ
zmFpEIlGtzyF rpypElGpo qEzx Gsp xzopw- bp nzxClEp Gsp EpFHwGF qzE wplFG
FDHlEpF lyo GszFp qzE v!yplEpFG yptrsmzEF qzE l Elyrp zq IlwHpF zq v-
L wlErp FHmFpG zq Gsp xzFG CzCHwlE GpnsytDHpF ty HFp GzolA lEp IlEtlyGF zq
GspFp GJz FtxCwp CEznpoHEpF- Ty qlnG %!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE+ Gsp FtxCwpFG zq lww+
nlCGHEpF l wlErp CpEnpyGlrp zq Gsp xlEvpG qzE wzJ!otxpyFtzylw CEzmwpxF-
jsp qzwwzJtyr wtFG opFnEtmpF Fzxp JlAF ty Jstns GspFp FtxCwp CEznpoHEpF
slIp mppy pyslynpo9
| VpEypw xpGszoF HFp JptrsGF GslG opnEplFp FxzzGswA Gz BpEz JtGs otF!
Glynp qEzx Gsp GlErpG CztyG+ ElGspE Gsly Gsp pΓpnGtIp $.% JptrsGF HFpo
mA v!yplEpFG yptrsmzEF-
| Ty strs!otxpyFtzylw FClnpF Gsp otFGlynp vpEypwF lEp xzot¨po Gz px!

CslFtBp Fzxp IlEtlmwp xzEp Gsly zGspEF-
%] =- ZIpEItpU zq iHCpEItFpo plEytyr
| znlw EprEpFFtzy ¨GF wtyplE xzopwF mA wznlwwA JptrsGpo wplFG FDHlEpF+

ElGspE Gsly ¨GGtyr nzyFGlyGF wznlwwA-
| typlE xzopwF ¨G Gz l mlFtF pKClyFtzy zq Gsp zEtrtylw tyCHGF lwwzJ

lEmtGElEtwA nzxCwpK xzopwF-
| fEzupnGtzy CHEFHtG lyo ypHElw ypGJzEv xzopwF nzyFtFG zq FHxF zq yzy!

wtyplEwA GElyFqzExpo wtyplE xzopwF-
1-? iGlGtFGtnlw OpntFtzy jspzEA

Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp opIpwzC l Fxlww lxzHyG zq GspzEA GslG CEzItopF l qElxp!
JzEv qzE opIpwzCtyr xzopwF FHns lF GszFp otFnHFFpo tyqzExlwwA Fz qlE- bp
ËFG nzyFtopE Gsp nlFp zq l DHlyGtGlGtIp zHGCHG+ lyo Cwlnp zHEFpwIpF ty Gsp
JzEwo zq Elyozx IlEtlmwpF lyo CEzmlmtwtGA FClnpF- pG c ∈ ThC opyzGp l
Eplw IlwHpo Elyozx tyCHG IpnGzE+ lyo d ∈ Th l Eplw IlwHpo Elyozx zHG!
CHG IlEtlmwp+ JtGs uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy fE’cW d (- bp Fppv l qHynGtzy q ’c(
qzE CEpotnGtyr d rtIpy IlwHpF zq Gsp tyCHG c- jstF GspzEA EpDHtEpF l wzFF
qHynGtzy ’dW q ’c(( qzE CpylwtBtyr pEEzEF ty CEpotnGtzy+ lyo mA qlE Gsp xzFG
nzxxzy lyo nzyIpytpyG tF FDHlEpo pEEzE wzFF9 ’dW q ’c(( ˆ ’d } q ’c((= -
jstF wploF HF Gz l nEtGpEtzy qzE nszzFtyr q +
PfP’q ( ˆ P’d } q ’c((= ’=-–(

∫
=
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Gsp pKCpnGpo ’FDHlEpo( CEpotnGtzy pEEzE - MA nzyotGtzytyr0 zy c+ Jp nly

JEtGp PfP lF $ %
PfP’q ( ˆ Pc Pd Kc ”d } q ’c(fl= Kc ’=-%%(
lyo Jp Fpp GslG tG FHffnpF Gz xtytxtBp PfP CztyGJtFp9
$ %
q ’K( ˆ lErxtyn Pd Kc ”d } nfl= Kc ˆ K , ’=-%=(
jsp FzwHGtzy tF
q ’K( ˆ P’d Kc ˆ K(W ’=-%“(
Gsp nzyotGtzylw pKCpnGlGtzy+ lwFz vyzJy lF Gsp EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzy- jsHF
Gsp mpFG CEpotnGtzy zq d lG lyA CztyG c ˆ K tF Gsp nzyotGtzylw xply+ Jspy
mpFG tF xplFHEpo mA lIpElrp FDHlEpo pEEzE-
jsp yplEpFG!yptrsmzE xpGszoF lGGpxCG Gz otEpnGwA txCwpxpyG GstF EpntCp
HFtyr Gsp GEltytyr olGl- LG plns CztyG K+ Jp xtrsG lFv qzE Gsp lIpElrp zq lww
0 NzyotGtzytyr spEp lxzHyGF Gz qlnGzEtyr Gsp uztyG opyFtGA fE’yW d ( ˆ fE’d y(fE’y(
JspEp fE’d y( ˆ fE’dW y(.fE’y() lyo FCwtGGtyr HC Gsp mtIlEtlGp tyGprElw lnnzEotyrwA-
=-? iGlGtFGtnlw OpntFtzy jspzEA %–
GszFp At F JtGs tyCHG Kt ˆ K- itynp GspEp tF GACtnlwwA lG xzFG zyp zmFpEIlGtzy

lG lyA CztyG K+ Jp FpGGwp qzE
q—’K( ˆ LIp’At KKt ∈ Yv ’K((W ’=-%?(
JspEp ˜LIp˙ opyzGpF lIpElrp+ lyo Yv ’K( tF Gsp yptrsmzEszzo nzyGltytyr

Gsp v CztyGF ty j nwzFpFG Gz K- jJz lCCEzKtxlGtzyF lEp slCCpytyr spEp9
| pKCpnGlGtzy tF lCCEzKtxlGpo mA lIpElrtyr zIpE FlxCwp olGl:
| nzyotGtzytyr lG l CztyG tF EpwlKpo Gz nzyotGtzytyr zy Fzxp Eprtzy
ñwzFp˙ Gz Gsp GlErpG CztyG-
QzE wlErp GEltytyr FlxCwp FtBp Y + Gsp CztyGF ty Gsp yptrsmzEszzo lEp wtvpwA
Gz mp nwzFp Gz K+ lyo lF v rpGF wlErp Gsp lIpElrp Jtww rpG xzEp FGlmwp-
Ty qlnG+ HyopE xtwo EprHwlEtGA nzyotGtzyF zy Gsp uztyG CEzmlmtwtGA otFGEt!
mHGtzy fE’cW d (+ zyp nly FszJ GslG lF YW v → ∞ FHns GslG v.Y → $+
q—’K( → P’d Kc ˆ K(- Ty wtrsG zq GstF+ JsA wzzv qHEGspE+ Ftynp tG FppxF
Jp slIp l HytIpEFlw lCCEzKtxlGzE¯ bp zqGpy oz yzG slIp IpEA wlErp Flx!
CwpF- Tq Gsp wtyplE zE Fzxp xzEp FGEHnGHEpo xzopw tF lCCEzCEtlGp+ Gspy Jp
nly HFHlwwA rpG l xzEp FGlmwp pFGtxlGp Gsly v!yplEpFG yptrsmzEF+ lwGszHrs
FHns vyzJwporp slF Gz mp wplEypo qEzx Gsp olGl lF Jpww- jspEp lEp zGspE
CEzmwpxF GszHrs+ FzxpGtxpF otFlFGEzHF- Ty ipnGtzy =-4 Jp Fpp GslG lF Gsp
otxpyFtzy C rpGF wlErp+ Fz ozpF Gsp xpGEtn FtBp zq Gsp v!yplEpFG yptrsmzE!
szzo- iz FpGGwtyr qzE yplEpFG yptrsmzEszzo lF l FHEEzrlGp qzE nzyotGtzytyr
Jtww qltw HF xtFpElmwA- jsp nzyIpErpynp lmzIp FGtww szwoF+ mHG Gsp ElGp zq
nzyIpErpynp opnEplFpF lF Gsp otxpyFtzy tynEplFpF-
SzJ ozpF wtyplE EprEpFFtzy ¨G tyGz GstF qElxpJzEv¯ jsp FtxCwpFG pKCwlyl!
Gtzy tF GslG zyp lFFHxpF GslG Gsp EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzy q ’K( tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA
wtyplE ty tGF lErHxpyGF9
q ’K( ≈ Kj β, ’=-%4(
jstF tF l xzopw!mlFpo lCCEzlns1Jp FCpntqA l xzopw qzE Gsp EprEpFFtzy qHyn!
Gtzy- fwHrrtyr GstF wtyplE xzopw qzE q ’K( tyGz PfP ’=-–( lyo otΓpEpyGtlGtyr
Jp nly FzwIp qzE β GspzEpGtnlwwA9
β ˆ ”P’cc j (fl}0 P’cd (, ’=-%[(
YzGp Jp slIp yzG nzyotGtzypo zy c: ElGspE Jp slIp HFpo zHE vyzJwporp

zq Gsp qHynGtzylw EpwlGtzyFstC Gz Czzw zIpE IlwHpF zq c- jsp wplFG FDHlEpF
FzwHGtzy ’=-[( lxzHyGF Gz EpCwlntyr Gsp pKCpnGlGtzy ty ’=-%[( mA lIpElrpF
zIpE Gsp GEltytyr olGl-
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nzyotGtzylw pKCpnGlGtzyF mA lIpElrpF- MHG GspA otΓpE oElxlGtnlwwA ty GpExF
zq xzopw lFFHxCGtzyF9
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qHynGtzy-
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nzyFGlyG qHynGtzy-
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nzyotGtzylw xpotly+
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pEEzE tF lylwAGtnlwwA nzyIpytpyG lyo Gsp xzFG CzCHwlE-
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nwlFFpF- ZHE wzFF qHynGtzy nly mp EpCEpFpyGpo mA l V × V xlGEtK + JspEp
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nwlFF Qv lF Qℓ - XzFG zqGpy Jp HFp Gsp BpEz8zyp wzFF qHynGtzy+ JspEp lww
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Gsp GlErpG CztyG+ lyo mzGs mtlF lyo IlEtlynp lEp tynHEEpo- MA C ˆ %$+ qzE
xzEp Gsly ––0 zq Gsp FlxCwpF Gsp yplEpFG yptrsmzE tF l otFGlynp rEplGpE
Gsly $,4 qEzx Gsp zEtrty- jsHF lF C tynEplFpF+ Gsp pFGtxlGp GpyoF Gz mp $
xzEp zqGpy Gsly yzG+ lyo spynp Gsp XiP wpIpwF zΓ lG %,$+ lF ozpF Gsp mtlF+
lyo Gsp IlEtlynp FGlEGF oEzCCtyr ’ly lEGtqlnG zq GstF pKlxCwp(-
LwGszHrs GstF tF l strswA nzyGEtIpo pKlxCwp+ FtxtwlE Cspyzxpyl znnHE
xzEp rpypElwwA- jsp nzxCwpKtGA zq qHynGtzyF zq xlyA IlEtlmwpF nly rEzJ
pKCzypyGtlwwA JtGs Gsp otxpyFtzy+ lyo tq Jp JtFs Gz mp lmwp Gz pFGtxlGp
FHns qHynGtzyF JtGs Gsp Flxp lnnHElnA lF qHynGtzy ty wzJ otxpyFtzyF+ Gspy
Jp yppo Gsp FtBp zq zHE GEltytyr FpG Gz rEzJ pKCzypyGtlwwA lF Jpww- Ty GstF
pKlxCwp+ Gsp qHynGtzy tF l nzxCwpK tyGpElnGtzy zq lww C IlEtlmwpF tyIzwIpo-
jsp opCpyopynp zq Gsp mtlF GpEx zy otFGlynp opCpyoF zy Gsp GEHGs+ lyo
tG yppo yzG lwJlAF ozxtylGp JtGs %!yplEpFG yptrsmzE- QzE pKlxCwp+ tq Gsp
qHynGtzy lwJlAF tyIzwIpF zywA l qpJ otxpyFtzyF lF ty QtrHEp =-]+ Gspy Gsp
IlEtlynp nly ozxtylGp tyFGplo-
iHCCzFp+ zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ GslG Jp vyzJ GslG Gsp EpwlGtzyFstC mpGJppy
d lyo c tF wtyplE+
d ˆ c j β ) εW ’=-=[(
JspEp ε ∼ Y ’$W σ = ( lyo Jp ¨G Gsp xzopw mA wplFG FDHlEpF Gz Gsp GElty!

tyr olGl- QzE ly lEmtGElEA GpFG CztyG K$ + Jp slIp A—$ ˆ Kj$ β+ — Jstns nly
(Y
mp JEtGGpy lF A—$ ˆ Kj$ β ) tˆ0 ℓt ’K$ (εt + JspEp ℓt ’K$ ( tF Gsp tGs pwpxpyG
zq c’cj c(}0 K$ - itynp HyopE GstF xzopw Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGpF lEp
=-4 znlw cpGszoF ty Strs OtxpyFtzyF =4
1-NN in One Dimension 1-NN in One vs. Two Dimensions

1.0
1.0
•
• •
0.8
0.5
••
•
0.6
•
• • • •
f(X)
0.0
X2
• • •
0.4
• •• • •
-0.5
•• •
0.2
• • •
•
-1.0
0.0
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
X X1
Distance to 1-NN vs. Dimension MSE vs. Dimension
• • •
1.0
•
Average Distance to Nearest Neighbor
• •
0.8
MSE
• Variance
•
0.8
• Sq. Bias
•
0.6
• •
0.6
•
Mse
0.4
0.4
• ••
•
0.2
0.2
• •
• • • • • • • • • • • •
0.0
0.0
2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10
Dimension Dimension
QTRIFD 1W6W L FtxHwlGtzy pKlxCwp+ opxzyFGElGtyr Gsp nHEFp zq otxpyFtzylw,

tGA lyo tGF p;pnG zy ciP+ mtlF lyo IlEtlynp- jsp tyCHG qplGHEpF lEp HytqzExwA
otFGEtmHGpo ty ”}%W %7N qzE C ˆ %W , , , W %/ jsp GzC wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp GlErpG qHyn,
=
Gtzy ’yz yztFp( ty Th9 q ’c( ˆ p|7TTyTT + lyo opxzyFGElGpF Gsp pEEzE GslG %,yplEpFG
yptrsmzE xlvpF ty pFGtxlGtyr q ’/(- jsp GEltytyr CztyG tF tyotnlGpo mA Gsp mwHp Gtnv
xlEv- jsp GzC EtrsG Clypw twwHFGElGpF JsA Gsp ElotHF zq Gsp %,yplEpFG yptrsmzEszzo
tynEplFpF JtGs otxpyFtzy C- jsp wzJpE wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp lIpElrp ElotHF zq Gsp
%,yplEpFG yptrsmzEszzoF- jsp wzJpE,EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp ciP+ FDHlEpo mtlF lyo
IlEtlynp nHEIpF lF l qHynGtzy zq otxpyFtzy C-
=[ =- ZIpEItpU zq iHCpEItFpo plEytyr
1-NN in One Dimension MSE vs. Dimension
0.25
•
4
• MSE
•
•
0.20
• Variance
• Sq. Bias •
3
•• •
0.15
MSE
f(X)
0.10
1
0.05
•
•
• • •
• • • • • • • •
0.0
0
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 2 4 6 8 10
X Dimension
QTRIFD 1W7W L FtxHwlGtzy pKlxCwp JtGs Gsp Flxp FpGHC lF ty QtrHEp =-fi- SpEp
Gsp qHynGtzy tF nzyFGlyG ty lww mHG zyp otxpyFtzy9 g ’c( ˆ 0= ’c0 ) %(2 - jsp
IlEtlynp ozxtylGpF-
HymtlFpo+ Jp ÿo GslG
PfP’K$ ( ˆ PA$ KK$ PH ’A$ } A—$ (=

ˆ A$ } PH A—$ fl= ) ”PH A—$ } Kj$ βfl=
alE’A$ KK$ ( ) PH ”—
A$ ( ) MtlF= ’—
ˆ alE’A$ KK$ ( ) alEH ’— A$ (
}0
ˆ σ ) PH K$ ’c c( K$ σ = ) $= ,
= j j
’=-=fi(
SpEp Jp slIp tynHEEpo ly lootGtzylw IlEtlynp σ = ty Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE+

Ftynp zHE GlErpG tF yzG opGpExtytFGtn- jspEp tF yz mtlF+ lyo Gsp IlEtlynp
opCpyoF zy K$ - Tq Y tF wlErp lyo H JpEp FpwpnGpo lG Elyozx+ lyo lFFHxtyr
P’c( ˆ $+ Gspy cj c → Y NzI’c( lyo
PK$ PfP’K$ ( ∼ PK$ Kj$ NzI’c(}0 K$ σ = .Y ) σ =

ˆ GElnp”NzI’c(}0 NzI’K$ (flσ = .Y ) σ =
ˆ σ = ’C.Y ( ) σ = , ’=-=](
SpEp Jp Fpp GslG Gsp pKCpnGpo PfP tynEplFpF wtyplEwA lF l qHynGtzy zq C+

JtGs FwzCp σ = .Y - Tq Y tF wlErp lyo#zE σ = tF Fxlww+ GstF rEzJGs ty IlEt!
lynp tF yprwtrtmwp ’$ ty Gsp opGpExtytFGtn nlFp(- MA txCzFtyr Fzxp splIA
EpFGEtnGtzyF zy Gsp nwlFF zq xzopwF mptyr ¨GGpo+ Jp slIp lIztopo Gsp nHEFp
zq otxpyFtzylwtGA- izxp zq Gsp Gpnsytnlw opGltwF ty ’=-=fi( lyo ’=-=]( lEp
opEtIpo ty PKpEntFp =-4-
QtrHEp =-– nzxClEpF %!yplEpFG yptrsmzE IF- wplFG FDHlEpF ty GJz FtGHl!
GtzyF+ mzGs zq Jstns slIp Gsp qzEx d ˆ q ’c( ) ε+ c HytqzEx lF mpqzEp+
lyo ε ∼ Y ’$W %(- jsp FlxCwp FtBp tF Y ˆ 4$$- QzE Gsp zElyrp nHEIp+ q ’K(
=-4 znlw cpGszoF ty Strs OtxpyFtzyF =fi
Expected Prediction Error of 1NN vs. OLS
2.1
• • •
• • •
• • • •
2.0
1.9
EPE Ratio
•
•
Linear
Cubic
•
•
1.8
•
•
1.7
•
•
• • • •
1.6
2 4 6 8 10
Dimension
QTRIFD 1W8W jsp nHEIpF FszJ Gsp pKCpnGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE ’lG K+ ˆ /( qzE
%,yplEpFG yptrsmzE EpwlGtIp Gz wplFG FDHlEpF qzE Gsp xzopw d ˆ q ’c( ) ε- QzE Gsp
zElyrp nHEIp+ q ’K( ˆ K0 + Jstwp qzE Gsp mwHp nHEIp q ’K( ˆ =0 ’K0 ) %(2 -
tF wtyplE ty Gsp ËFG nzzEotylGp+ qzE Gsp mwHp nHEIp+ nHmtn lF ty QtrHEp =-]-
iszJy tF Gsp EpwlGtIp PfP zq %!yplEpFG yptrsmzE Gz wplFG FDHlEpF+ Jstns
lCCplEF Gz FGlEG lG lEzHyo = qzE Gsp wtyplE nlFp- plFG FDHlEpF tF HymtlFpo
ty GstF nlFp+ lyo lF otFnHFFpo lmzIp Gsp PfP tF FwtrsGwA lmzIp σ = ˆ %-
jsp PfP qzE %!yplEpFG yptrsmzE tF lwJlAF lmzIp =+ Ftynp Gsp IlEtlynp zq
q—’K$ ( ty GstF nlFp tF lG wplFG σ = + lyo Gsp ElGtz tynEplFpF JtGs otxpyFtzy lF
Gsp yplEpFG yptrsmzE FGElAF qEzx Gsp GlErpG CztyG- QzE Gsp nHmtn nlFp+ wplFG
FDHlEpF tF mtlFpo+ Jstns xzopElGpF Gsp ElGtz- NwplEwA Jp nzHwo xlyHqlnGHEp
pKlxCwpF JspEp Gsp mtlF zq wplFG FDHlEpF JzHwo ozxtylGp Gsp IlEtlynp+ lyo
Gsp %!yplEpFG yptrsmzE JzHwo nzxp zHG Gsp JtyypE-
MA EpwAtyr zy Etrto lFFHxCGtzyF+ Gsp wtyplE xzopw slF yz mtlF lG lww lyo
yprwtrtmwp IlEtlynp+ Jstwp Gsp pEEzE ty %!yplEpFG yptrsmzE tF FHmFGlyGtlwwA
wlErpE- SzJpIpE+ tq Gsp lFFHxCGtzyF lEp JEzyr+ lww mpGF lEp zΓ lyo Gsp
%!yplEpFG yptrsmzE xlA ozxtylGp- bp Jtww Fpp GslG GspEp tF l Jszwp FCpn!
GEHx zq xzopwF mpGJppy Gsp Etrto wtyplE xzopwF lyo Gsp pKGEpxpwA 7pKtmwp
%!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE xzopwF+ plns JtGs GsptE zJy lFFHxCGtzyF lyo mtlFpF+
Jstns slIp mppy CEzCzFpo FCpnt¨nlwwA Gz lIzto Gsp pKCzypyGtlw rEzJGs ty
nzxCwpKtGA zq qHynGtzyF ty strs otxpyFtzyF mA oElJtyr splItwA zy GspFp
lFFHxCGtzyF-
MpqzEp Jp opwIp xzEp oppCwA+ wpG HF pwlmzElGp l mtG zy Gsp nzynpCG zq
FGlGtFGtnlw xzopwF lyo Fpp szJ GspA ¨G tyGz Gsp CEpotnGtzy qElxpJzEv-
=] =- ZIpEItpU zq iHCpEItFpo plEytyr
1-” iGlGtFGtnlw czopwF) iHCpEItFpo plEytyr lyo

QHynGtzy LCCEzKtxlGtzy
ZHE rzlw tF Gz ÿo l HFpqHw lCCEzKtxlGtzy q—’K( Gz Gsp qHynGtzy q ’K( GslG
HyopEwtpF Gsp CEpotnGtIp EpwlGtzyFstC mpGJppy Gsp tyCHGF lyo zHGCHGF- Ty Gsp
GspzEpGtnlw FpGGtyr zq ipnGtzy =-?+ Jp FlJ GslG FDHlEpo pEEzE wzFF wplo HF
Gz Gsp EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzy q ’K( ˆ P’d Kc ˆ K( qzE l DHlyGtGlGtIp EpFCzyFp-
jsp nwlFF zq yplEpFG!yptrsmzE xpGszoF nly mp ItpJpo lF otEpnG pFGtxlGpF
zq GstF nzyotGtzylw pKCpnGlGtzy+ mHG Jp slIp Fppy GslG GspA nly qltw ty lG
wplFG GJz JlAF9
| tq Gsp otxpyFtzy zq Gsp tyCHG FClnp tF strs+ Gsp yplEpFG yptrsmzEF yppo
yzG mp nwzFp Gz Gsp GlErpG CztyG+ lyo nly EpFHwG ty wlErp pEEzEF:
| tq FCpntlw FGEHnGHEp tF vyzJy Gz pKtFG+ GstF nly mp HFpo Gz EpoHnp mzGs
Gsp mtlF lyo Gsp IlEtlynp zq Gsp pFGtxlGpF-
bp lyGtntClGp HFtyr zGspE nwlFFpF zq xzopwF qzE q ’K(+ ty xlyA nlFpF FCpntq!
tnlwwA opFtrypo Gz zIpEnzxp Gsp otxpyFtzylwtGA CEzmwpxF+ lyo spEp Jp otF!
nHFF l qElxpJzEv qzE tynzECzElGtyr Gspx tyGz Gsp CEpotnGtzy CEzmwpx-
1-”-0 L iGlGtFGtnlw czopw qzE Gsp UztyG OtFGEtmHGtzy fEWLK B (

iHCCzFp ty qlnG GslG zHE olGl lEzFp qEzx l FGlGtFGtnlw xzopw
d ˆ q ’c( ) εW ’=-=–(
JspEp Gsp Elyozx pEEzE ε slF P’ε( ˆ $ lyo tF tyopCpyopyG zq c- YzGp GslG
qzE GstF xzopw+ q ’K( ˆ P’d Kc ˆ K(+ lyo ty qlnG Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy
fE’d Kc( opCpyoF zy c zywA GsEzHrs Gsp nzyotGtzylw xply q ’K(-
jsp lootGtIp pEEzE xzopw tF l HFpqHw lCCEzKtxlGtzy Gz Gsp GEHGs- QzE
xzFG FAFGpxF Gsp tyCHG8zHGCHG CltEF ’cW d ( Jtww yzG slIp l opGpExtytFGtn
EpwlGtzyFstC d ˆ q ’c(- RpypElwwA GspEp Jtww mp zGspE HyxplFHEpo IlEtlmwpF
GslG lwFz nzyGEtmHGp Gz d + tynwHotyr xplFHEpxpyG pEEzE- jsp lootGtIp xzopw
lFFHxpF GslG Jp nly nlCGHEp lww GspFp opClEGHEpF qEzx l opGpExtytFGtn Ep!
wlGtzyFstC Itl Gsp pEEzE ε-
QzE Fzxp CEzmwpxF l opGpExtytFGtn EpwlGtzyFstC ozpF szwo- XlyA zq Gsp
nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpxF FGHotpo ty xlnstyp wplEytyr lEp zq GstF qzEx+ JspEp
Gsp EpFCzyFp FHEqlnp nly mp GszHrsG zq lF l nzwzEpo xlC opÿpo ty ThC -
jsp GEltytyr olGl nzyFtFG zq nzwzEpo pKlxCwpF qEzx Gsp xlC ·Kt W rt •+ lyo
Gsp rzlw tF Gz mp lmwp Gz nzwzE lyA CztyG- SpEp Gsp qHynGtzy tF opGpExtytFGtn+
lyo Gsp ElyozxypFF pyGpEF GsEzHrs Gsp K wznlGtzy zq Gsp GEltytyr CztyGF-
QzE Gsp xzxpyG Jp Jtww yzG CHEFHp FHns CEzmwpxF+ mHG Jtww Fpp GslG GspA
nly mp slyowpo mA GpnsytDHpF lCCEzCEtlGp qzE Gsp pEEzE!mlFpo xzopwF-
jsp lFFHxCGtzy ty ’=-=–( GslG Gsp pEEzEF lEp tyopCpyopyG lyo topyGtnlwwA
otFGEtmHGpo tF yzG FGEtnGwA ypnpFFlEA+ mHG FppxF Gz mp lG Gsp mlnv zq zHE xtyo
=-[ iGlGtFGtnlw czopwF+ iHCpEItFpo plEytyr lyo QHynGtzy LCCEzKtxlGtzy =–
Jspy Jp lIpElrp FDHlEpo pEEzEF HytqzExwA ty zHE PfP nEtGpEtzy- btGs FHns
l xzopw tG mpnzxpF ylGHElw Gz HFp wplFG FDHlEpF lF l olGl nEtGpEtzy qzE
xzopw pFGtxlGtzy lF ty ’=-%(- itxCwp xzot¨nlGtzyF nly mp xlop Gz lIzto
Gsp tyopCpyopynp lFFHxCGtzy: qzE pKlxCwp+ Jp nly slIp alE’d Kc ˆ K( ˆ
σ’K(+ lyo yzJ mzGs Gsp xply lyo IlEtlynp opCpyo zy c- Ty rpypElw Gsp
nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy fE’d Kc( nly opCpyo zy c ty nzxCwtnlGpo JlAF+
mHG Gsp lootGtIp pEEzE xzopw CEpnwHopF GspFp-
iz qlE Jp slIp nzynpyGElGpo zy Gsp DHlyGtGlGtIp EpFCzyFp- LootGtIp pEEzE
xzopwF lEp GACtnlwwA yzG HFpo qzE DHlwtGlGtIp zHGCHGF R: ty GstF nlFp Gsp GlE!
rpG qHynGtzy C’c( tF Gsp nzyotGtzylw opyFtGA fE’RKc(+ lyo GstF tF xzopwpo
otEpnGwA- QzE pKlxCwp+ qzE GJz!nwlFF olGl+ tG tF zqGpy EplFzylmwp Gz lFFHxp
GslG Gsp olGl lEtFp qEzx tyopCpyopyG mtylEA GEtlwF+ JtGs Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA zq
zyp ClEGtnHwlE zHGnzxp mptyr C’c(+ lyo Gsp zGspE % } C’c(- jsHF tq d tF
Gsp $8% nzopo IpEFtzy zq R+ Gspy P’d Kc ˆ K( ˆ C’K(+ mHG Gsp IlEtlynp
opCpyoF zy K lF Jpww9 alE’d Kc ˆ K( ˆ C’K(”% } C’K(fl-
1-”-1 iHCpEItFpo plEytyr

MpqzEp Jp wlHyns tyGz xzEp FGlGtFGtnlwwA zEtpyGpo ulErzy+ Jp CEpFpyG Gsp
qHynGtzy!¨GGtyr ClElotrx qEzx l xlnstyp wplEytyr CztyG zq ItpJ- iHCCzFp
qzE FtxCwtntGA GslG Gsp pEEzEF lEp lootGtIp lyo GslG Gsp xzopw d ˆ q ’c( ) ε
tF l EplFzylmwp lFFHxCGtzy- iHCpEItFpo wplEytyr lGGpxCGF Gz wplEy q mA
pKlxCwp GsEzHrs l GplnspE- Zyp zmFpEIpF Gsp FAFGpx HyopE FGHoA+ mzGs
Gsp tyCHGF lyo zHGCHGF+ lyo lFFpxmwpF l GEltytyr FpG zq zmFpEIlGtzyF H ˆ
’Kt W At (W t ˆ %W , , , W Y - jsp zmFpEIpo tyCHG IlwHpF Gz Gsp FAFGpx Kt lEp lwFz
qpo tyGz ly lEGt¨ntlw FAFGpx+ vyzJy lF l wplEytyr lwrzEtGsx ’HFHlwwA l nzx!
CHGpE CEzrElx(+ Jstns lwFz CEzoHnpF zHGCHGF q—’Kt ( ty EpFCzyFp Gz Gsp ty!
CHGF- jsp wplEytyr lwrzEtGsx slF Gsp CEzCpEGA GslG tG nly xzotqA tGF ty!
CHG#zHGCHG EpwlGtzyFstC q— ty EpFCzyFp Gz otΓpEpynpF At } q—’Kt ( mpGJppy Gsp
zEtrtylw lyo rpypElGpo zHGCHGF- jstF CEznpFF tF vyzJy lF wplEytyr mA pKlx,
Cwp- kCzy nzxCwpGtzy zq Gsp wplEytyr CEznpFF Gsp szCp tF GslG Gsp lEGt¨ntlw
lyo Eplw zHGCHGF Jtww mp nwzFp pyzHrs Gz mp HFpqHw qzE lww FpGF zq tyCHGF wtvpwA
Gz mp pynzHyGpEpo ty CElnGtnp-
1-”-“ QHynGtzy LCCEzKtxlGtzy

jsp wplEytyr ClElotrx zq Gsp CEpItzHF FpnGtzy slF mppy Gsp xzGtIlGtzy
qzE EpFplEns tyGz Gsp FHCpEItFpo wplEytyr CEzmwpx ty Gsp ¨pwoF zq xlnstyp
wplEytyr ’JtGs lylwzrtpF Gz sHxly EplFzytyr( lyo ypHElw ypGJzEvF ’JtGs
mtzwzrtnlw lylwzrtpF Gz Gsp mElty(- jsp lCCEzlns Glvpy ty lCCwtpo xlGsp!
xlGtnF lyo FGlGtFGtnF slF mppy qEzx Gsp CpEFCpnGtIp zq qHynGtzy lCCEzKtxl!
Gtzy lyo pFGtxlGtzy- SpEp Gsp olGl CltEF ·Kt W At • lEp ItpJpo lF CztyGF ty l
’C ) %(!otxpyFtzylw PHnwtoply FClnp- jsp qHynGtzy q ’K( slF ozxlty pDHlw
Gz Gsp C!otxpyFtzylw tyCHG FHmFClnp+ lyo tF EpwlGpo Gz Gsp olGl Itl l xzopw
“/ =- ZIpEItpU zq iHCpEItFpo plEytyr
FHns lF At ˆ q ’Kt ( ) εt - QzE nzyIpytpynp ty GstF nslCGpE Jp Jtww lFFHxp Gsp

ozxlty tF ThC + l C!otxpyFtzylw PHnwtoply FClnp+ lwGszHrs ty rpypElw Gsp
tyCHGF nly mp zq xtKpo GACp- jsp rzlw tF Gz zmGlty l HFpqHw lCCEzKtxlGtzy
Gz q ’K( qzE lww K ty Fzxp Eprtzy zq ThC + rtIpy Gsp EpCEpFpyGlGtzyF ty H -
LwGszHrs FzxpJslG wpFF rwlxzEzHF Gsly Gsp wplEytyr ClElotrx+ GEplGtyr
FHCpEItFpo wplEytyr lF l CEzmwpx ty qHynGtzy lCCEzKtxlGtzy pynzHElrpF Gsp
rpzxpGEtnlw nzynpCGF zq PHnwtoply FClnpF lyo xlGspxlGtnlw nzynpCGF zq
CEzmlmtwtFGtn tyqpEpynp Gz mp lCCwtpo Gz Gsp CEzmwpx- jstF tF Gsp lCCEzlns
Glvpy ty GstF mzzv-
XlyA zq Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtzyF Jp Jtww pynzHyGpE slIp lFFzntlGpo l FpG zq
ClElxpGpEF θ GslG nly mp xzot¨po Gz FHtG Gsp olGl lG slyo- QzE pKlxCwp+
Gsp wtyplE xzopw q ’K( ˆ Kj β slF θ ˆ β- LyzGspE nwlFF zq HFpqHw lCCEzKt!
xlGzEF nly mp pKCEpFFpo lF wtyplE mlFtF pKClyFtzyF
V
∑
qθ ’K( ˆ sv ’K(θv W ’=-“$(
vˆ0
JspEp Gsp sv lEp l FHtGlmwp FpG zq qHynGtzyF zE GElyFqzExlGtzyF zq Gsp tyCHG

IpnGzE K- jElotGtzylw pKlxCwpF lEp CzwAyzxtlw lyo GEtrzyzxpGEtn pKCly!
FtzyF+ JspEp qzE pKlxCwp sv xtrsG mp K=0 + K0 K== + nzF’K0 ( lyo Fz zy- bp
lwFz pynzHyGpE yzywtyplE pKClyFtzyF+ FHns lF Gsp Ftrxzto GElyFqzExlGtzy
nzxxzy Gz ypHElw ypGJzEv xzopwF+
%
sv ’K( ˆ , ’=-“%(
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bp nly HFp wplFG FDHlEpF Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp ClElxpGpEF θ ty qθ lF Jp oto
qzE Gsp wtyplE xzopw+ mA xtytxtBtyr Gsp EpFtoHlw FHx!zq!FDHlEpF
Y
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hii’θ( ˆ ’At } qθ ’Kt ((= ’=-“=(
tˆ0
lF l qHynGtzy zq θ- jstF FppxF l EplFzylmwp nEtGpEtzy qzE ly lootGtIp pEEzE

xzopw- Ty GpExF zq qHynGtzy lCCEzKtxlGtzy+ Jp txlrtyp zHE ClElxpGpEtBpo
qHynGtzy lF l FHEqlnp ty C ) % FClnp+ lyo JslG Jp zmFpEIp lEp yztFA Ep!
lwtBlGtzyF qEzx tG- jstF tF plFA Gz ItFHlwtBp Jspy C ˆ = lyo Gsp IpEGtnlw
nzzEotylGp tF Gsp zHGCHG A+ lF ty QtrHEp =-%$- jsp yztFp tF ty Gsp zHGCHG
nzzEotylGp+ Fz Jp ÿo Gsp FpG zq ClElxpGpEF FHns GslG Gsp ¨GGpo FHEqlnp
rpGF lF nwzFp Gz Gsp zmFpEIpo CztyGF lF CzFFtmwp+ JspEp nwzFp tF xplFHEpo mA
Gsp FHx zq FDHlEpo IpEGtnlw pEEzEF ty hii’θ(-
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xtBlGtzy CEzmwpx- jstF tF lwFz GEHp qzE Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzy xpGszoF+ tq Gsp
mlFtF qHynGtzyF GspxFpwIpF oz yzG slIp lyA stoopy ClElxpGpEF- ZGspEJtFp
Gsp FzwHGtzy EpDHtEpF ptGspE tGpElGtIp xpGszoF zE yHxpEtnlw zCGtxtBlGtzy-
bstwp wplFG FDHlEpF tF rpypElwwA IpEA nzyIpytpyG+ tG tF yzG Gsp zywA nEtGp!
Etzy HFpo lyo ty Fzxp nlFpF JzHwo yzG xlvp xHns FpyFp- L xzEp rpypElw
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• • •
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QTRIFD 1W0.W plFG FDHlEpF 6GGtyr zq l qHynGtzy zq GJz tyCHGF- jsp ClElxpGpEF
zq qθ ’K( lEp nszFpy Fz lF Gz xtytxtBp Gsp FHx,zq,FDHlEpo IpEGtnlw pEEzEF-
CEtyntCwp qzE pFGtxlGtzy tF xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGtzy- iHCCzFp Jp slIp

l Elyozx FlxCwp At W t ˆ %W , , , W Y qEzx l opyFtGA fEθ ’A( tyopKpo mA Fzxp
ClElxpGpEF θ- jsp wzr!CEzmlmtwtGA zq Gsp zmFpEIpo FlxCwp tF
Y
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’θ( ˆ wzr fEθ ’At (, ’=-““(
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jsp CEtyntCwp zq xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo lFFHxpF GslG Gsp xzFG EplFzylmwp

IlwHpF qzE θ lEp GszFp qzE Jstns Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA zq Gsp zmFpEIpo FlxCwp tF
wlErpFG- plFG FDHlEpF qzE Gsp lootGtIp pEEzE xzopw d ˆ qθ ’c( ) ε+ JtGs
ε ∼ Y ’$W σ = (+ tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo HFtyr Gsp nzyotGtzylw
wtvpwtszzo
fE’d KcW θ( ˆ Y ’qθ ’c(W σ = (, ’=-“?(
iz lwGszHrs Gsp lootGtzylw lFFHxCGtzy zq yzExlwtGA FppxF xzEp EpFGEtnGtIp+
Gsp EpFHwGF lEp Gsp Flxp- jsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo zq Gsp olGl tF
Y
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lyo Gsp zywA GpEx tyIzwItyr θ tF Gsp wlFG+ Jstns tF hii’θ( HC Gz l FnlwlE
yprlGtIp xHwGtCwtpE-
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Ftzy qHynGtzy fE’RKc( qzE l DHlwtGlGtIp zHGCHG R- iHCCzFp Jp slIp l xzopw
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ty GstF wtvpwtszzo FpyFp-
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bp slIp Fppy GslG lwGszHrs yplEpFG!yptrsmzE lyo zGspE wznlw xpGszoF qznHF
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Jp CEznppo+ GszHrs+ Jp otFnHFF qHEGspE Gsp yppo qzE FHns nwlFFpF-
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NzyFtopE Gsp hii nEtGpEtzy qzE ly lEmtGElEA qHynGtzy q +
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hii’q ( ˆ ’At } q ’Kt ((= , ’=-“fi(
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GsEzHrs Gsp GEltytyr CztyGF ’Kt W At ( tF l FzwHGtzy- LyA ClEGtnHwlE FzwHGtzy
nszFpy xtrsG mp l CzzE CEpotnGzE lG GpFG CztyGF otΓpEpyG qEzx Gsp GEltytyr
CztyGF- Tq GspEp lEp xHwGtCwp zmFpEIlGtzy CltEF Kt W Atℓ W ℓ ˆ %W , , , W Yt lG plns
IlwHp zq Kt + Gsp EtFv tF wtxtGpo- Ty GstF nlFp+ Gsp FzwHGtzyF ClFF GsEzHrs
Gsp lIpElrp IlwHpF zq Gsp Atℓ lG plns Kt : Fpp PKpEntFp =-[- jsp FtGHlGtzy tF
FtxtwlE Gz Gsp zyp Jp slIp lwEploA ItFtGpo ty ipnGtzy =-?: tyoppo+ ’=-“fi( tF
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FHffntpyGwA wlErp FHns GslG EpCplGF JpEp rHlElyGppo lyo opyFpwA lEElyrpo+
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pKCpnGlGtzy-
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jspFp EpFGEtnGtzyF lEp FzxpGtxpF pynzopo Itl Gsp ClElxpGEtn EpCEpFpyGlGtzy
zq qθ + zE xlA mp mHtwG tyGz Gsp wplEytyr xpGszo tGFpwq+ ptGspE txCwtntGwA zE
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mzzv- Zyp Gstyr FszHwo mp nwplE+ GszHrs- LyA EpFGEtnGtzyF txCzFpo zy q
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mppy GElyFqpEEpo Gz Gsp nsztnp zq nzyFGEltyG-
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opFnEtmpo lF nzxCwpKtGA EpFGEtnGtzyF zq zyp vtyo zE lyzGspE- jstF HFHlwwA
xplyF Fzxp vtyo zq EprHwlE mpslItzE ty Fxlww yptrsmzEszzoF zq Gsp tyCHG
FClnp- jslG tF+ qzE lww tyCHG CztyGF K FHffntpyGwA nwzFp Gz plns zGspE ty
Fzxp xpGEtn+ q— pKstmtGF Fzxp FCpntlw FGEHnGHEp FHns lF yplEwA nzyFGlyG+
wtyplE zE wzJ!zEopE CzwAyzxtlw mpslItzE- jsp pFGtxlGzE tF Gspy zmGltypo mA
lIpElrtyr zE CzwAyzxtlw ¨GGtyr ty GslG yptrsmzEszzo-
jsp FGEpyrGs zq Gsp nzyFGEltyG tF otnGlGpo mA Gsp yptrsmzEszzo FtBp- jsp
wlErpE Gsp FtBp zq Gsp yptrsmzEszzo+ Gsp FGEzyrpE Gsp nzyFGEltyG+ lyo Gsp
xzEp FpyFtGtIp Gsp FzwHGtzy tF Gz Gsp ClEGtnHwlE nsztnp zq nzyFGEltyG- QzE
pKlxCwp+ wznlw nzyFGlyG ¨GF ty tyÿtGpFtxlwwA Fxlww yptrsmzEszzoF tF yz
nzyFGEltyG lG lww: wznlw wtyplE ¨GF ty IpEA wlErp yptrsmzEszzoF tF lwxzFG l
rwzmlwwA wtyplE xzopw+ lyo tF IpEA EpFGEtnGtIp-
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otFnHFFpo lmzIp1Cplvpo lG Gsp GlErpG CztyG lyo qlwwtyr lJlA FxzzGswA
lJlA qEzx tG-
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oHnp wznlwwA IlEAtyr qHynGtzyF ty Fxlww tFzGEzCtn yptrsmzEszzoF Jtww EHy
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nzyIpEFpwA+ lww xpGszoF GslG zIpEnzxp Gsp otxpyFtzylwtGA CEzmwpxF slIp ly
lFFzntlGpo1lyo zqGpy txCwtntG zE lolCGtIp1xpGEtn qzE xplFHEtyr yptrsmzE!
szzoF+ Jstns mlFtnlwwA ozpF yzG lwwzJ Gsp yptrsmzEszzo Gz mp FtxHwGlyp!
zHFwA Fxlww ty lww otEpnGtzyF-
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jsp IlEtpGA zq yzyClElxpGEtn EprEpFFtzy GpnsytDHpF zE wplEytyr xpGszoF qlww
tyGz l yHxmpE zq otΓpEpyG nwlFFpF opCpyotyr zy Gsp ylGHEp zq Gsp EpFGEtnGtzyF
txCzFpo- jspFp nwlFFpF lEp yzG otFGtynG+ lyo tyoppo Fzxp xpGszoF qlww ty
FpIpElw nwlFFpF- SpEp Jp rtIp l mEtpq FHxxlEA+ Ftynp opGltwpo opFnEtCGtzyF
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lEp rtIpy ty wlGpE nslCGpEF- Plns zq Gsp nwlFFpF slF lFFzntlGpo JtGs tG zyp
zE xzEp ClElxpGpEF+ FzxpGtxpF lCCEzCEtlGpwA nlwwpo FxzzGstyr ClElxpGpEF+
GslG nzyGEzw Gsp pΓpnGtIp FtBp zq Gsp wznlw yptrsmzEszzo- SpEp Jp opFnEtmp
GsEpp mEzlo nwlFFpF-
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SpEp Gsp nwlFF zq qHynGtzyF tF nzyGEzwwpo mA pKCwtntGwA CpylwtBtyr hii’q (
JtGs l EzHrsypFF CpylwGA
fhii’q : λ( ˆ hii’q ( ) λU’q (, ’=-“](
jsp HFpE!FpwpnGpo qHynGtzylw U’q ( Jtww mp wlErp qzE qHynGtzyF q GslG IlEA Gzz
ElCtowA zIpE Fxlww EprtzyF zq tyCHG FClnp- QzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp CzCHwlE nHmtn
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wplFG!FDHlEpF nEtGpEtzy
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qHynGtzyF wtyplE ty K lEp CpExtGGpo-
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Gsp GACp zq qHynGtzyF Jp Fppv pKstmtG l npEGlty GACp zq FxzzGs mpslItzE+ lyo
tyoppo nly HFHlwwA mp nlFG ty l MlApFtly qElxpJzEv- jsp CpylwGA U nzEEp!
FCzyoF Gz l wzr!CEtzE+ lyo fhii’q : λ( Gsp wzr!CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy+ lyo
xtytxtBtyr fhii’q : λ( lxzHyGF Gz ÿotyr Gsp CzFGpEtzE xzop- bp otFnHFF
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NslCGpE ]-
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jspFp xpGszoF nly mp GszHrsG zq lF pKCwtntGwA CEzItotyr pFGtxlGpF zq Gsp Ep!
rEpFFtzy qHynGtzy zE nzyotGtzylw pKCpnGlGtzy mA FCpntqAtyr Gsp ylGHEp zq Gsp
wznlw yptrsmzEszzo+ lyo zq Gsp nwlFF zq EprHwlE qHynGtzyF ¨GGpo wznlwwA- jsp
wznlw yptrsmzEszzo tF FCpnt¨po mA l vpEypw qHynGtzy Vλ ’K$ W K( Jstns lFFtryF
=-] NwlFFpF zq hpFGEtnGpo PFGtxlGzEF “4
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pKlxCwp+ Gsp RlHFFtly vpEypw slF l JptrsG qHynGtzy mlFpo zy Gsp RlHFFtly
opyFtGA qHynGtzy
[ ]
% KKK } K$ KK=
Vλ ’K$ W K( ˆ pKC } ’=-?$(
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zq Gsp RlHFFtly opyFtGA+ lyo nzyGEzwF Gsp JtoGs zq Gsp yptrsmzEszzo- jsp
FtxCwpFG qzEx zq vpEypw pFGtxlGp tF Gsp YlolElAl8blGFzy JptrsGpo lIpElrp
(Y
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JspEp θ— xtytxtBpF
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hii’qθ W K$ ( ˆ Vλ ’K$ W Kt (’At } qθ ’Kt ((= W ’=-?=(
tˆ0
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izxp pKlxCwpF lEp9
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blGFzy pFGtxlGp ty ’=-?%( lmzIp-
| qθ ’K( ˆ θ$ ) θ0 K rtIpF Gsp CzCHwlE wznlw wtyplE EprEpFFtzy xzopw-
YplEpFG!yptrsmzE xpGszoF nly mp GszHrsG zq lF vpEypw xpGszoF slItyr l
xzEp olGl!opCpyopyG xpGEtn- Tyoppo+ Gsp xpGEtn qzE v!yplEpFG yptrsmzEF tF
Vv ’KW K$ ( ˆ T’KKK } K$ KK ≤ KKKWv( } K$ KK(W
JspEp KWv( tF Gsp GEltytyr zmFpEIlGtzy Elyvpo vGs ty otFGlynp qEzx K$ + lyo
T’i( tF Gsp tyotnlGzE zq Gsp FpG i-
jspFp xpGszoF zq nzHEFp yppo Gz mp xzot¨po ty strs otxpyFtzyF+ Gz lIzto
Gsp nHEFp zq otxpyFtzylwtGA- alEtzHF lolCGlGtzyF lEp otFnHFFpo ty NslCGpE [-
1-7-“ MlFtF QHynGtzyF lyo OtnGtzylEA cpGszoF

jstF nwlFF zq xpGszoF tynwHopF Gsp qlxtwtlE wtyplE lyo CzwAyzxtlw pKCly!
FtzyF+ mHG xzEp txCzEGlyGwA l Jtop IlEtpGA zq xzEp 7pKtmwp xzopwF- jsp
xzopw qzE q tF l wtyplE pKClyFtzy zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF
X
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qθ ’K( ˆ θx sx ’K(W ’=-?“(
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lF l mlFtF qzE CzwAyzxtlwF ty K zq GzGlw oprEpp X -
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mA ly lCCEzCEtlGp FpDHpynp zq X FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF+ opGpExtypo ty GHEy
mA X } V vyzGF- jspFp CEzoHnp qHynGtzyF GslG lEp CtpnpJtFp CzwAyzxtlwF
zq oprEpp V mpGJppy Gsp vyzGF+ lyo uztypo HC JtGs nzyGtyHtGA zq oprEpp
V } % lG Gsp vyzGF- LF ly pKlxCwp nzyFtopE wtyplE FCwtypF+ zE CtpnpJtFp
wtyplE qHynGtzyF- Zyp tyGHtGtIpwA FlGtFqAtyr mlFtF nzyFtFGF zq Gsp qHynGtzyF
m0 ’K( ˆ %+ m= ’K( ˆ K+ lyo mx)= ’K( ˆ ’K } Gx () + x ˆ %W , , , W X } =+
JspEp Gx tF Gsp xGs vyzG+ lyo B) opyzGpF CzFtGtIp ClEG- jpyFzE CEzoHnGF
zq FCwtyp mlFpF nly mp HFpo qzE tyCHGF JtGs otxpyFtzyF wlErpE Gsly zyp
’Fpp ipnGtzy 4-=+ lyo Gsp NLhj lyo XLhi xzopwF ty NslCGpE –-( jsp
ClElxpGpE θ nly mp Gsp GzGlw oprEpp zq Gsp CzwAyzxtlw zE Gsp yHxmpE zq
vyzGF ty Gsp nlFp zq FCwtypF-
hlotlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF lEp FAxxpGEtn C!otxpyFtzylw vpEypwF wznlGpo lG
ClEGtnHwlE npyGEztoF+
X
∑
qθ ’K( ˆ VλK ’<x W K(θx : ’=-??(
xˆ0
=
qzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp RlHFFtly vpEypw Vλ ’<W K( ˆ p}KKK}<KK .=λ tF CzCHwlE-
hlotlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF slIp npyGEztoF <x lyo FnlwpF λx GslG slIp Gz
mp opGpExtypo- jsp FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF slIp vyzGF- Ty rpypElw Jp JzHwo
wtvp Gsp olGl Gz otnGlGp Gspx lF Jpww- TynwHotyr GspFp lF ClElxpGpEF nslyrpF
Gsp EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx qEzx l FGEltrsGqzEJlEo wtyplE CEzmwpx Gz l nzxmt!
ylGzEtlwwA slEo yzywtyplE CEzmwpx- Ty CElnGtnp+ FszEGnHGF FHns lF rEppoA
lwrzEtGsxF zE GJz FGlrp CEznpFFpF lEp HFpo- ipnGtzy [-fi opFnEtmpF Fzxp FHns
lCCEzlnspF-
L Ftyrwp!wlApE qppo!qzEJlEo ypHElw ypGJzEv xzopw JtGs wtyplE zHGCHG
JptrsGF nly mp GszHrsG zq lF ly lolCGtIp mlFtF qHynGtzy xpGszo- jsp xzopw
slF Gsp qzEx
X
∑
j
qθ ’K( ˆ βx σ’αx K ) mx (W ’=-?4(
xˆ0
JspEp σ’K( ˆ %.’% ) p}K ( tF vyzJy lF Gsp lnGtIlGtzy qHynGtzy- SpEp+ lF

ty Gsp CEzupnGtzy CHEFHtG xzopw+ Gsp otEpnGtzyF αx lyo Gsp mtlF GpExF mx
slIp Gz mp opGpExtypo+ lyo GsptE pFGtxlGtzy tF Gsp xplG zq Gsp nzxCHGlGtzy-
OpGltwF lEp rtIp ty NslCGpE %%-
jspFp lolCGtIpwA nszFpy mlFtF qHynGtzy xpGszoF lEp lwFz vyzJy lF otnGtz,
ylEA xpGszoF+ JspEp zyp slF lIltwlmwp l CzFFtmwA tyÿtGp FpG zE otnGtzylEA
C zq nlyotolGp mlFtF qHynGtzyF qEzx Jstns Gz nszzFp+ lyo xzopwF lEp mHtwG
HC mA pxCwzAtyr Fzxp vtyo zq FplEns xpnslytFx-
=-– czopw ipwpnGtzy lyo Gsp MtlF8alEtlynp jElopz∆ “fi
1-– czopw ipwpnGtzy lyo Gsp MtlF8alEtlynp

jElopz:
Lww Gsp xzopwF opFnEtmpo lmzIp lyo xlyA zGspEF otFnHFFpo ty wlGpE nslCGpEF
slIp l FxzzGstyr zE nzxCwpKtGA ClElxpGpE GslG slF Gz mp opGpExtypo9
| Gsp xHwGtCwtpE zq Gsp CpylwGA GpEx:
| Gsp JtoGs zq Gsp vpEypw:
| zE Gsp yHxmpE zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF-
Ty Gsp nlFp zq Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp+ Gsp ClElxpGpE λ tyopKpF xzopwF Elyrtyr
qEzx l FGEltrsG wtyp ¨G Gz Gsp tyGpECzwlGtyr xzopw- itxtwlEwA l wznlw oprEpp!
x CzwAyzxtlw xzopw ElyrpF mpGJppy l oprEpp!x rwzmlw CzwAyzxtlw Jspy
Gsp JtyozJ FtBp tF tyÿtGpwA wlErp+ Gz ly tyGpECzwlGtyr ¨G Jspy Gsp JtyozJ
FtBp FsEtyvF Gz BpEz- jstF xplyF GslG Jp nlyyzG HFp EpFtoHlw FHx!zq!FDHlEpF
zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl Gz opGpExtyp GspFp ClElxpGpEF lF Jpww+ Ftynp Jp JzHwo
lwJlAF Ctnv GszFp GslG rlIp tyGpECzwlGtyr ¨GF lyo spynp BpEz EpFtoHlwF- iHns
l xzopw tF HywtvpwA Gz CEpotnG qHGHEp olGl Jpww lG lww-
jsp v!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE EprEpFFtzy ¨G q—v ’K$ ( HFpqHwwA twwHFGElGpF Gsp nzx!
CpGtyr qzEnpF GslG pΓpnG Gsp CEpotnGtIp lmtwtGA zq FHns lCCEzKtxlGtzyF- iHC!
CzFp Gsp olGl lEtFp qEzx l xzopw d ˆ q ’c( ) ε+ JtGs P’ε( ˆ $ lyo
alE’ε( ˆ σ = - QzE FtxCwtntGA spEp Jp lFFHxp GslG Gsp IlwHpF zq Kt ty Gsp
FlxCwp lEp ¨Kpo ty loIlynp ’yzyElyozx(- jsp pKCpnGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE
lG K$ + lwFz vyzJy lF GpFG zE rpypElwtBlGtzy pEEzE+ nly mp opnzxCzFpo9
PfPv ’K$ ( ˆ P”’d } q—v ’K$ ((= Kc ˆ K$ fl

ˆ σ = ) ”MtlF= ’q—v ’K$ (( ) alEH ’q—v ’K$ ((fl ’=-?[(
+ %∑
v ,= σ =
ˆ σ = ) q ’K$ ( } q ’KWℓ( ( ) , ’=-?fi(
v v
ℓˆ0
jsp FHmFnEtCGF ty ClEpyGspFpF ’ℓ( tyotnlGp Gsp FpDHpynp zq yplEpFG yptrsmzEF

Gz K$ -
jspEp lEp GsEpp GpExF ty GstF pKCEpFFtzy- jsp ËFG GpEx σ = tF Gsp tE,
EpoHntmwp pEEzE1Gsp IlEtlynp zq Gsp ypJ GpFG GlErpG1lyo tF mpAzyo zHE
nzyGEzw+ pIpy tq Jp vyzJ Gsp GEHp q ’K$ (-
jsp Fpnzyo lyo GstEo GpExF lEp HyopE zHE nzyGEzw+ lyo xlvp HC Gsp
xply FDHlEpo pEEzE zq q—v ’K$ ( ty pFGtxlGtyr q ’K$ (+ Jstns tF mEzvpy ozJy
tyGz l mtlF nzxCzypyG lyo l IlEtlynp nzxCzypyG- jsp mtlF GpEx tF Gsp
FDHlEpo otΓpEpynp mpGJppy Gsp GEHp xply q ’K$ ( lyo Gsp pKCpnGpo IlwHp zq
Gsp pFGtxlGp1”PH ’q—v ’K$ (( } q ’K$ (fl= 1JspEp Gsp pKCpnGlGtzy lIpElrpF Gsp
ElyozxypFF ty Gsp GEltytyr olGl- jstF GpEx Jtww xzFG wtvpwA tynEplFp JtGs
v+ tq Gsp GEHp qHynGtzy tF EplFzylmwA FxzzGs- QzE Fxlww v Gsp qpJ nwzFpFG
yptrsmzEF Jtww slIp IlwHpF q ’KWℓ( ( nwzFp Gz q ’K$ (+ Fz GsptE lIpElrp FszHwo
“] =- ZIpEItpU zq iHCpEItFpo plEytyr
Strs MtlF Bk MtlF

Bk alEtlynp Strs alEtlynp
fEpotnGtzy PEEzE
upFG ilxCwp
uEltytyr ilxCwp
Bk Strs
czopw NzxCwpKtGA
QTRIFD 1W00W jpFG lyo GEltytyr pEEzE lF l qHynGtzy zq xzopw nzxCwpKtGA-
mp nwzFp Gz q ’K$ (- LF v rEzJF+ Gsp yptrsmzEF lEp qHEGspE lJlA+ lyo Gspy
lyAGstyr nly slCCpy-
jsp IlEtlynp GpEx tF FtxCwA Gsp IlEtlynp zq ly lIpElrp spEp+ lyo op!
nEplFpF lF Gsp tyIpEFp zq v- iz lF v IlEtpF+ GspEp tF l mtlF8IlEtlynp GElopz;-
XzEp rpypElwwA+ lF Gsp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA zq zHE CEznpoHEp tF tynEplFpo+
Gsp IlEtlynp GpyoF Gz tynEplFp lyo Gsp FDHlEpo mtlF GpyoF Gz opnEplFpF-
jsp zCCzFtGp mpslItzE znnHEF lF Gsp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA tF opnEplFpo- QzE
v!yplEpFG yptrsmzEF+ Gsp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA tF nzyGEzwwpo mA v-
jACtnlwwA Jp JzHwo wtvp Gz nszzFp zHE xzopw nzxCwpKtGA Gz GElop mtlF
zΓ JtGs IlEtlynp ty FHns l JlA lF Gz xtytxtBp (Gsp GpFG pEEzE- Ly zmItzHF
pFGtxlGp zq GpFG pEEzE tF Gsp GEltytyr pEEzE Y0 t ’At } A—t (= - kyqzEGHylGpwA
GEltytyr pEEzE tF yzG l rzzo pFGtxlGp zq GpFG pEEzE+ lF tG ozpF yzG CEzCpEwA
lnnzHyG qzE xzopw nzxCwpKtGA-
QtrHEp =-%% FszJF Gsp GACtnlw mpslItzE zq Gsp GpFG lyo GEltytyr pEEzE+ lF
xzopw nzxCwpKtGA tF IlEtpo- jsp GEltytyr pEEzE GpyoF Gz opnEplFp JspypIpE
Jp tynEplFp Gsp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA+ GslG tF+ JspypIpE Jp ¨G Gsp olGl slEopE-
SzJpIpE JtGs Gzz xHns ¨GGtyr+ Gsp xzopw lolCGF tGFpwq Gzz nwzFpwA Gz Gsp
GEltytyr olGl+ lyo Jtww yzG rpypElwtBp Jpww ’t-p-+ slIp wlErp GpFG pEEzE(- Ty
GslG nlFp Gsp CEpotnGtzyF q—’K$ ( Jtww slIp wlErp IlEtlynp+ lF Ep7pnGpo ty Gsp
wlFG GpEx zq pKCEpFFtzy ’=-?[(- Ty nzyGElFG+ tq Gsp xzopw tF yzG nzxCwpK
pyzHrs+ tG Jtww HyopE¨G lyo xlA slIp wlErp mtlF+ lrlty EpFHwGtyr ty CzzE
rpypElwtBlGtzy- Ty NslCGpE fi Jp otFnHFF xpGszoF qzE pFGtxlGtyr Gsp GpFG
pEEzE zq l CEpotnGtzy xpGszo+ lyo spynp pFGtxlGtyr Gsp zCGtxlw lxzHyG zq
xzopw nzxCwpKtGA qzE l rtIpy CEpotnGtzy xpGszo lyo GEltytyr FpG-
PKpEntFpF “–
MtmwtzrElCstn dzGpF
izxp rzzo rpypElw mzzvF zy Gsp wplEytyr CEzmwpx lEp OHol pG lw- ’=$$$(+
MtFszC ’%––4(+’MtFszC+ =$$[(+ htCwpA ’%––[(+ NspEvlFFvA lyo XHwtpE ’=$$fi(
lyo alCytv ’%––[(- flEGF zq GstF nslCGpE lEp mlFpo zy QEtpoxly ’%––?m(-
PKpEntFpF
PK- =-% iHCCzFp plns zq V!nwlFFpF slF ly lFFzntlGpo GlErpG Gv + Jstns tF l

IpnGzE zq lww BpEzF+ pKnpCG l zyp ty Gsp vGs CzFtGtzy- iszJ GslG nwlFFtqAtyr Gz
Gsp wlErpFG pwpxpyG zq A— lxzHyGF Gz nszzFtyr Gsp nwzFpFG GlErpG+ xtyv KKGv }
A—KK+ tq Gsp pwpxpyGF zq A— FHx Gz zyp-
PK- =-= iszJ szJ Gz nzxCHGp Gsp MlApF opntFtzy mzHyolEA qzE Gsp FtxHwl!
Gtzy pKlxCwp ty QtrHEp =-4-
PK- =-“ OpEtIp pDHlGtzy ’=-=?(-
PK- =-? jsp porp pΓpnG CEzmwpx otFnHFFpo zy Clrp =“ tF yzG CpnHwtlE Gz
HytqzEx FlxCwtyr qEzx mzHyopo ozxltyF- NzyFtopE tyCHGF oElJy qEzx l
FCspEtnlw xHwGtyzExlw otFGEtmHGtzy c ∼ Y ’$W TC (- jsp FDHlEpo otFGlynp
qEzx lyA FlxCwp CztyG Gz Gsp zEtrty slF l χ=C otFGEtmHGtzy JtGs xply C-
NzyFtopE l CEpotnGtzy CztyG K$ oElJy qEzx GstF otFGEtmHGtzy+ lyo wpG l ˆ
K$ .KKK$ KK mp ly lFFzntlGpo HytG IpnGzE- pG Bt ˆ lj Kt mp Gsp CEzupnGtzy zq
plns zq Gsp GEltytyr CztyGF zy GstF otEpnGtzy-
iszJ GslG Gsp Bt lEp otFGEtmHGpo Y ’$W %( JtGs pKCpnGpo FDHlEpo otFGlynp
qEzx Gsp zEtrty %+ Jstwp Gsp GlErpG CztyG slF pKCpnGpo FDHlEpo otFGlynp C
qEzx Gsp zEtrty-
Spynp qzE C ˆ %$+ l ElyozxwA oElJy GpFG CztyG tF lmzHG “,% FGlyolEo
opItlGtzyF qEzx Gsp zEtrty+ Jstwp lww Gsp GEltytyr CztyGF lEp zy lIpElrp
zyp FGlyolEo opItlGtzy lwzyr otEpnGtzy l- iz xzFG CEpotnGtzy CztyGF Fpp
GspxFpwIpF lF wAtyr zy Gsp porp zq Gsp GEltytyr FpG-
PK- =-4
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nzyotGtzytyr lErHxpyG-
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zCpElGzE ”GElnp’LM( ˆ GElnp’ML(fl+ lyo tGF wtyplEtGA ’Jstns lwwzJF HF
Gz tyGpEnslyrp Gsp zEopE zq GElnp lyo pKCpnGlGtzy(-
PK- =-[ NzyFtopE l EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx JtGs tyCHGF Kt lyo zHGCHGF At + lyo l
ClElxpGpEtBpo xzopw qθ ’K( Gz mp ¨G mA wplFG FDHlEpF- iszJ GslG tq GspEp lEp
zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGs Gtpo zE topyGtnlw IlwHpF zq K+ Gspy Gsp ¨G nly mp zmGltypo
qEzx l EpoHnpo JptrsGpo wplFG FDHlEpF CEzmwpx-
?/ =- ZIpEItpU zq iHCpEItFpo plEytyr
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otFGEtmHGtzy nslElnGpEtBpo lF qzwwzJF9
Kt ∼ s’K(W Gsp opFtry opyFtGA
At ˆ q ’Kt ( ) εt W q tF Gsp EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzy
εt ∼ ’$W σ = ( ’xply BpEz+ IlEtlynp σ = (
bp nzyFGEHnG ly pFGtxlGzE qzE q wtyplE ty Gsp At +
Y
∑
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tˆ0
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pyGtEp GEltytyr FpDHpynp zq Kt + opyzGpo spEp mA A -
’l( iszJ GslG wtyplE EprEpFFtzy lyo v!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE EprEpFFtzy lEp xpx!
mpEF zq GstF nwlFF zq pFGtxlGzEF- OpFnEtmp pKCwtntGwA Gsp JptrsGF ℓt ’K$ : A (
ty plns zq GspFp nlFpF-
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PMKA ’q ’K$ ( } q—’K$ ((=

tyGz l nzyotGtzylw FDHlEpo mtlF lyo l nzyotGtzylw IlEtlynp nzxCzypyG-
tvp A + B EpCEpFpyGF Gsp pyGtEp GEltytyr FpDHpynp zq At -
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PMWA ’q ’K$ ( } q—’K$ ((=

tyGz l FDHlEpo mtlF lyo l IlEtlynp nzxCzypyG-
’o( PFGlmwtFs l EpwlGtzyFstC mpGJppy Gsp FDHlEpo mtlFpF lyo IlEtlynpF ty
Gsp lmzIp GJz nlFpF-
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yplEpFG yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy zy Gsp BtCnzop olGl- Ty ClEGtnHwlE+ nzyFtopE
zywA Gsp =&F lyo 2&F+ lyo v ˆ %W “W 4W fi lyo %4- iszJ mzGs Gsp GEltytyr lyo
GpFG pEEzE qzE plns nsztnp- jsp BtCnzop olGl lEp lIltwlmwp qEzx Gsp mzzv
JpmFtGp UUU!FGlG-FGlyDzEo-poH#PwpxiGlG plEy-
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FDHlEpF Gz l FpG zq GEltytyr olGl ’K0 W A0 (W , , , W ’KY W AY ( oElJy lG Elyozx
qEzx l CzCHwlGtzy- pG β— mp Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGp- iHCCzFp Jp slIp
Fzxp GpFG olGl ’2 K0 W A20 (W , , , W ’2
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0
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lCCwtpo Gz GElyFqzExlGtzyF zq Gsp tyCHGF lyo GstF nzyFtopElmwA pKClyoF GsptE
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lyo lEp otFnHFFpo ty NslCGpE 4-
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otFnHFFpo spEp-
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LF tyGEzoHnpo ty NslCGpE =+ Jp slIp ly tyCHG IpnGzE c j ˆ ’c0 W c= W , , , W cC (+
lyo JlyG Gz CEpotnG l Eplw!IlwHpo zHGCHG d - jsp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy xzopw
slF Gsp qzEx
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FpyGF
(4 Gsp pΓpnG zq R mA l FpG zq wpIpw!opCpyopyG nzyFGlyGF+ Ftynp ty
Hˆ0 cH βH + zyp zq Gsp cH F tF zyp+ lyo Gsp zGspEF lEp BpEz-
| tyGpElnGtzyF mpGJppy IlEtlmwpF+ qzE pKlxCwp+ c˜ ˆ c0 ± c= -

Yz xlGGpE Gsp FzHEnp zq Gsp cH + Gsp xzopw tF wtyplE ty Gsp ClElxpGpEF-
jACtnlwwA Jp slIp l FpG zq GEltytyr olGl ’K0 W A0 ( , , , ’KY W AY ( qEzx Jstns
Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp ClElxpGpEF β- Plns Kt ˆ ’Kt0 W Kt= W , , , W KtC (j tF l IpnGzE
zq qplGHEp xplFHEpxpyGF qzE Gsp tGs nlFp- jsp xzFG CzCHwlE pFGtxlGtzy
xpGszo tF wplFG FDHlEpF+ ty Jstns Jp Ctnv Gsp nzpffntpyGF β ˆ ’β$ W β0 W , , , W βC (j
Gz xtytxtBp Gsp EpFtoHlw FHx zq FDHlEpF
Y
∑
hii’β( ˆ ’At } q ’Kt ((=
tˆ0
Y &
∑ C
∑ '=
ˆ At } β$ } KtH βH , ’“-=(
tˆ0 Hˆ0
QEzx l FGlGtFGtnlw CztyG zq ItpJ+ GstF nEtGpEtzy tF EplFzylmwp tq Gsp GEltytyr

zmFpEIlGtzyF ’Kt W At ( EpCEpFpyG tyopCpyopyG Elyozx oElJF qEzx GsptE CzCH!
wlGtzy- PIpy tq Gsp Kt &F JpEp yzG oElJy ElyozxwA+ Gsp nEtGpEtzy tF FGtww Ilwto
tq Gsp At &F lEp nzyotGtzylwwA tyopCpyopyG rtIpy Gsp tyCHGF Kt - QtrHEp “-%
twwHFGElGpF Gsp rpzxpGEA zq wplFG!FDHlEpF ¨GGtyr ty Gsp ThC)0 !otxpyFtzylw
“-= typlE hprEpFFtzy czopwF lyo plFG iDHlEpF ?4
•
•
• • ••
•• •
• • •• •• • • •
• • • • •• •
•
• •
•• • • • • •• •• • •
•
•• • • • • c=
• •
•
c0
QTRIFD 2W0W typlE wplFG FDHlEpF 6GGtyr JtGs c ∈ Th= - bp Fppv Gsp wtyplE
qHynGtzy zq c GslG xtytxtBpF Gsp FHx zq FDHlEpo EpFtoHlwF qEzx d -
FClnp znnHCtpo mA Gsp CltEF ’cW d (- YzGp GslG ’“-=( xlvpF yz lFFHxCGtzyF
lmzHG Gsp IlwtotGA zq xzopw ’“-%(: tG FtxCwA ÿoF Gsp mpFG wtyplE ¨G Gz Gsp
olGl- plFG FDHlEpF ¨GGtyr tF tyGHtGtIpwA FlGtFqAtyr yz xlGGpE szJ Gsp olGl
lEtFp: Gsp nEtGpEtzy xplFHEpF Gsp lIpElrp wlnv zq ¨G-
SzJ oz Jp xtytxtBp ’“-=(¯ OpyzGp mA c Gsp Y × ’C ) %( xlGEtK JtGs
plns EzJ ly tyCHG IpnGzE ’JtGs l % ty Gsp ËFG CzFtGtzy(+ lyo FtxtwlEwA wpG
A mp Gsp Y !IpnGzE zq zHGCHGF ty Gsp GEltytyr FpG- jspy Jp nly JEtGp Gsp
EpFtoHlw FHx!zq!FDHlEpF lF
hii’β( ˆ ’A } cβ(j ’A } cβ(, ’“-“(
jstF tF l DHloElGtn qHynGtzy ty Gsp C ) % ClElxpGpEF- OtΓpEpyGtlGtyr JtGs
EpFCpnG Gz β Jp zmGlty
∂hii
ˆ }=cj ’A } cβ(
∂β
’“-?(
∂ = hii
ˆ =cj c,
∂β∂β j
LFFHxtyr ’qzE Gsp xzxpyG( GslG c slF qHww nzwHxy Elyv+ lyo spynp cj c
tF CzFtGtIp opÿtGp+ Jp FpG Gsp ËFG opEtIlGtIp Gz BpEz
cj ’A } cβ( ˆ $ ’“-4(
Gz zmGlty Gsp HytDHp FzwHGtzy
β— ˆ ’cj c(}0 cj A, ’“-[(
?[ “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
K=
A
1
K0
QTRIFD 2W1W jsp Y ,otxpyFtzylw rpzxpGEA zq wplFG FDHlEpF EprEpFFtzy JtGs GJz
CEpotnGzEF- jsp zHGnzxp IpnGzE A tF zEGszrzylwwA CEzupnGpo zyGz Gsp sACpECwlyp
1 EpCEpFpyGF Gsp IpnGzE
FClyypo mA Gsp tyCHG IpnGzEF K0 lyo K= - jsp CEzupnGtzy A
zq Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF CEpotnGtzyF
jsp CEpotnGpo IlwHpF lG ly tyCHG IpnGzE K$ lEp rtIpy mA q—’K$ ( ˆ ’% 9 K$ (j β:

—
Gsp ¨GGpo IlwHpF lG Gsp GEltytyr tyCHGF lEp
— ˆ cβ— ˆ c’cj c(}0 cj AW
A ’“-fi(
JspEp A—t ˆ q—’Kt (- jsp xlGEtK S ˆ c’cj c(}0 cj lCCplEtyr ty pDHlGtzy

’“-fi( tF FzxpGtxpF nlwwpo Gsp ˜slG˙ xlGEtK mpnlHFp tG CHGF Gsp slG zy A-
QtrHEp “-= FszJF l otΓpEpyG rpzxpGEtnlw EpCEpFpyGlGtzy zq Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF
pFGtxlGp+ GstF Gtxp ty ThY - bp opyzGp Gsp nzwHxy IpnGzEF zq c mA K$ W K0 W , , , W KC +
JtGs K$ ≡ %- QzE xHns zq JslG qzwwzJF+ GstF ËFG nzwHxy tF GEplGpo wtvp lyA
zGspE- jspFp IpnGzEF FCly l FHmFClnp zq ThY + lwFz EpqpEEpo Gz lF Gsp nzwHxy
FClnp zq c- bp xtytxtBp hii’β( ˆ ‖A } cβ‖= mA nszzFtyr β— Fz GslG Gsp
EpFtoHlw IpnGzE A } A — tF zEGszrzylw Gz GstF FHmFClnp- jstF zEGszrzylwtGA tF
pKCEpFFpo ty ’“-4(+ lyo Gsp EpFHwGtyr pFGtxlGp A— tF spynp Gsp zEGszrzylw CEz,
upnGtzy zq A zyGz GstF FHmFClnp- jsp slG xlGEtK S nzxCHGpF Gsp zEGszrzylw
CEzupnGtzy+ lyo spynp tG tF lwFz vyzJy lF l CEzupnGtzy xlGEtK-
TG xtrsG slCCpy GslG Gsp nzwHxyF zq c lEp yzG wtyplEwA tyopCpyopyG+ Fz
GslG c tF yzG zq qHww Elyv- jstF JzHwo znnHE+ qzE pKlxCwp+ tq GJz zq Gsp
tyCHGF JpEp CpEqpnGwA nzEEpwlGpo+ ’p-r-+ K= ˆ “K0 (- jspy cj c tF FtyrHwlE
lyo Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF nzpffntpyGF β— lEp yzG HytDHpwA opÿpo- SzJpIpE+
Gsp ¨GGpo IlwHpF A — ˆ cβ— lEp FGtww Gsp CEzupnGtzy zq A zyGz Gsp nzwHxy
FClnp zq c: GspEp tF uHFG xzEp Gsly zyp JlA Gz pKCEpFF GslG CEzupnGtzy
ty GpExF zq Gsp nzwHxy IpnGzEF zq c- jsp yzy!qHww!Elyv nlFp znnHEF xzFG
zqGpy Jspy zyp zE xzEp DHlwtGlGtIp tyCHGF lEp nzopo ty l EpoHyolyG qlFstzy-
jspEp tF HFHlwwA l ylGHElw JlA Gz EpFzwIp Gsp yzy!HytDHp EpCEpFpyGlGtzy+
mA Epnzotyr lyo#zE oEzCCtyr EpoHyolyG nzwHxyF ty c- XzFG EprEpFFtzy
FzqGJlEp ClnvlrpF opGpnG GspFp EpoHyolyntpF lyo lHGzxlGtnlwwA txCwpxpyG
“-= typlE hprEpFFtzy czopwF lyo plFG iDHlEpF ?fi
Fzxp FGElGprA qzE EpxzItyr Gspx- hlyv op¨ntpyntpF nly lwFz znnHE ty Ftrylw
lyo txlrp lylwAFtF+ JspEp Gsp yHxmpE zq tyCHGF C nly pKnppo Gsp yHxmpE
zq GEltytyr nlFpF Y - Ty GstF nlFp+ Gsp qplGHEpF lEp GACtnlwwA EpoHnpo mA
¨wGpEtyr zE pwFp Gsp ¨GGtyr tF nzyGEzwwpo mA EprHwlEtBlGtzy ’ipnGtzy 4-=-“ lyo
NslCGpE %](-
kC Gz yzJ Jp slIp xlop xtytxlw lFFHxCGtzyF lmzHG Gsp GEHp otFGEtmH!
Gtzy zq Gsp olGl- Ty zEopE Gz Cty ozJy Gsp FlxCwtyr CEzCpEGtpF zq β+— Jp yzJ
lFFHxp GslG Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF At lEp HynzEEpwlGpo lyo slIp nzyFGlyG IlEt!
lynp σ = + lyo GslG Gsp Kt lEp ¨Kpo ’yzy Elyozx(- jsp IlEtlynp8nzIlEtlynp
xlGEtK zq Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF ClElxpGpE pFGtxlGpF tF plFtwA opEtIpo qEzx ’“-[(
lyo tF rtIpy mA
— ˆ ’cj c(}0 σ = ,
alE’β( ’“-](
jACtnlwwA zyp pFGtxlGpF Gsp IlEtlynp σ = mA
∑ Y
= %
σ
— ˆ ’At } A—t (= ,
Y } C } % tˆ0
jsp Y } C } % ElGspE Gsly Y ty Gsp opyzxtylGzE xlvpF σ — = ly HymtlFpo

pFGtxlGp zq σ = 9 P’—
σ= ( ˆ σ= -
jz oElJ tyqpEpynpF lmzHG Gsp ClElxpGpEF lyo Gsp xzopw+ lootGtzylw lF!
FHxCGtzyF lEp yppopo- bp yzJ lFFHxp GslG ’“-%( tF Gsp nzEEpnG xzopw qzE
Gsp xply: GslG tF+ Gsp nzyotGtzylw pKCpnGlGtzy zq d tF wtyplE ty c0 W , , , W cC -
bp lwFz lFFHxp GslG Gsp opItlGtzyF zq d lEzHyo tGF pKCpnGlGtzy lEp lootGtIp
lyo RlHFFtly- Spynp
d ˆ P’d Kc0 W , , , W cC ( ) ε
∑C
ˆ β$ ) cH βH ) εW ’“-–(
Hˆ0
JspEp Gsp pEEzE ε tF l RlHFFtly Elyozx IlEtlmwp JtGs pKCpnGlGtzy BpEz lyo
IlEtlynp σ = + JEtGGpy ε ∼ Y ’$W σ = (-
kyopE ’“-–(+ tG tF plFA Gz FszJ GslG
β— ∼ Y ’βW ’cj c(}0 σ = (, ’“-%$(
jstF tF l xHwGtIlEtlGp yzExlw otFGEtmHGtzy JtGs xply IpnGzE lyo IlEtlynp8

nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK lF FszJy- LwFz
σ = ∼ σ = χ=Y }C}0 W
’Y } C } %(— ’“-%%(
l nst!FDHlEpo otFGEtmHGtzy JtGs Y } C } % oprEppF zq qEppozx- Ty lootGtzy β—

lyo σ— = lEp FGlGtFGtnlwwA tyopCpyopyG- bp HFp GspFp otFGEtmHGtzylw CEzCpEGtpF
Gz qzEx GpFGF zq sACzGspFtF lyo nzyöpynp tyGpEIlwF qzE Gsp ClElxpGpEF βH -
?] “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

Tail Probabilities
G>$
G0$$
yBExlw
2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0

Z
QTRIFD 2W2W jsp Gltw CEzmlmtwtGtpF fE’VeV / B( qzE GsEpp otFGEtmHGtzyF+ R2+ + R0++
lyo FGlyolEo yzExlw- iszJy lEp Gsp lCCEzCEtlGp DHlyGtwpF qzE GpFGtyr Ftryt6nlynp
lG Gsp C ˆ /,/4 lyo /,/% wpIpwF- jsp ot;pEpynp mpGJppy R lyo Gsp FGlyolEo yzExlw
mpnzxpF yprwtrtmwp qzE Y mtrrpE Gsly lmzHG %//-
jz GpFG Gsp sACzGspFtF GslG l ClEGtnHwlE nzpffntpyG βH ˆ $+ Jp qzEx Gsp

FGlyolEotBpo nzpffntpyG zE e,FnzEp
β—H
BH ˆ √ W ’“-%=(
σ
— IH
JspEp IH tF Gsp uGs otlrzylw pwpxpyG zq ’cj c(}0 - kyopE Gsp yHww sACzGspFtF
GslG βH ˆ $+ BH tF otFGEtmHGpo lF GY }C}0 ’l G otFGEtmHGtzy JtGs Y } C } %
oprEppF zq qEppozx(+ lyo spynp l wlErp ’lmFzwHGp( IlwHp zq BH Jtww wplo Gz
EpupnGtzy zq GstF yHww sACzGspFtF- Tq σ
— tF EpCwlnpo mA l vyzJy IlwHp σ+ Gspy
BH JzHwo slIp l FGlyolEo yzExlw otFGEtmHGtzy- jsp otΓpEpynp mpGJppy Gsp
Gltw DHlyGtwpF zq l G!otFGEtmHGtzy lyo l FGlyolEo yzExlw mpnzxp yprwtrtmwp
lF Gsp FlxCwp FtBp tynEplFpF+ lyo Fz Jp GACtnlwwA HFp Gsp yzExlw DHlyGtwpF
’Fpp QtrHEp “-“(-
ZqGpy Jp yppo Gz GpFG qzE Gsp Ftryt¨nlynp zq rEzHCF zq nzpffntpyGF FtxHw!
GlypzHFwA- QzE pKlxCwp+ Gz GpFG tq l nlGprzEtnlw IlEtlmwp JtGs v wpIpwF nly
mp pKnwHopo qEzx l xzopw+ Jp yppo Gz GpFG JspGspE Gsp nzpffntpyGF zq Gsp
oHxxA IlEtlmwpF HFpo Gz EpCEpFpyG Gsp wpIpwF nly lww mp FpG Gz BpEz- SpEp
Jp HFp Gsp Q FGlGtFGtn+
’hii$ } hii0 (.’C0 } C$ (

Q ˆ W ’“-%“(
hii0 .’Y } C0 } %(
JspEp hii0 tF Gsp EpFtoHlw FHx!zq!FDHlEpF qzE Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF ¨G zq Gsp mtr!
rpE xzopw JtGs C0 )% ClElxpGpEF+ lyo hii$ Gsp Flxp qzE Gsp ypFGpo FxlwwpE
xzopw JtGs C$ ) % ClElxpGpEF+ slItyr C0 } C$ ClElxpGpEF nzyFGEltypo Gz mp
“-= typlE hprEpFFtzy czopwF lyo plFG iDHlEpF ?–
BpEz- jsp Q FGlGtFGtn xplFHEpF Gsp nslyrp ty EpFtoHlw FHx!zq!FDHlEpF CpE

lootGtzylw ClElxpGpE ty Gsp mtrrpE xzopw+ lyo tG tF yzExlwtBpo mA ly pFGt!
xlGp zq σ = - kyopE Gsp RlHFFtly lFFHxCGtzyF+ lyo Gsp yHww sACzGspFtF GslG
Gsp FxlwwpE xzopw tF nzEEpnG+ Gsp Q FGlGtFGtn Jtww slIp l QC0 }C$ WY }C0 }0 otF!
GEtmHGtzy- TG nly mp FszJy ’PKpEntFp “-%( GslG Gsp BH ty ’“-%=( lEp pDHtIlwpyG
Gz Gsp Q FGlGtFGtn qzE oEzCCtyr Gsp Ftyrwp nzpffntpyG βH qEzx Gsp xzopw- QzE
wlErp Y + Gsp DHlyGtwpF zq Gsp QC0 }C$ WY }C0 }0 lCCEzlns GszFp zq Gsp χ=C0 }C$ -
itxtwlEwA+ Jp nly tFzwlGp βH ty ’“-%$( Gz zmGlty l %}=α nzyöpynp tyGpEIlw
qzE βH 9
0 0
’β—H } B W0}α( IH= σ
— W β—H ) B W0}α( IH= σ
— (, ’“-%?(
SpEp B W0}α( tF Gsp % } α CpEnpyGtwp zq Gsp yzExlw otFGEtmHGtzy9
B W0}$,$=4( ˆ %,–[W
B W0},$4( ˆ %,[?4W pGn-
Spynp Gsp FGlyolEo CElnGtnp zq EpCzEGtyr β— ± = ± Fp’β(

— lxzHyGF Gz ly lC!
CEzKtxlGp –40 nzyöpynp tyGpEIlw- PIpy tq Gsp RlHFFtly pEEzE lFFHxCGtzy
ozpF yzG szwo+ GstF tyGpEIlw Jtww mp lCCEzKtxlGpwA nzEEpnG+ JtGs tGF nzIpElrp
lCCEzlnstyr % } =α lF Gsp FlxCwp FtBp Y → ∞-
Ty l FtxtwlE qlFstzy Jp nly zmGlty ly lCCEzKtxlGp nzyöpynp FpG qzE Gsp
pyGtEp ClElxpGpE IpnGzE β+ ylxpwA
W0}α(
Nβ ˆ ·βK’β— } β(j cj c’β— } β( ≤ σ
— = χ=C)0 •W ’“-%4(
W0}α(
JspEp χ=ℓ tF Gsp % } α CpEnpyGtwp zq Gsp nst!FDHlEpo otFGEtmHGtzy zy ℓ
W0}$,$4( W0}$,0(
oprEppF zq qEppozx9 qzE pKlxCwp+ χ=4 ˆ %%,%+ χ=4 ˆ –,=- jstF
nzyöpynp FpG qzE β rpypElGpF l nzEEpFCzyotyr nzyöpynp FpG qzE Gsp GEHp
qHynGtzy q ’K( ˆ Kj β+ ylxpwA ·Kj βKβ ∈ Nβ • ’PKpEntFp “-=: Fpp lwFz Qtr!
HEp 4-? ty ipnGtzy 4-=-= qzE pKlxCwpF zq nzyöpynp mlyoF qzE qHynGtzyF(-
“-1-0 PKlxCwp9 fEzFGlGp NlynpE

jsp olGl qzE GstF pKlxCwp nzxp qEzx l FGHoA mA iGlxpA pG lw- ’%–]–(- jspA
pKlxtypo Gsp nzEEpwlGtzy mpGJppy Gsp wpIpw zq CEzFGlGp!FCpnt¨n lyGtrpy lyo
l yHxmpE zq nwtytnlw xplFHEpF ty xpy Jsz JpEp lmzHG Gz EpnptIp l Elotnlw
CEzFGlGpnGzxA- jsp IlEtlmwpF lEp wzr nlynpE IzwHxp ’wnlIzw(+ wzr CEzFGlGp
JptrsG ’wUptrsG(+ lrp+ wzr zq Gsp lxzHyG zq mpytry CEzFGlGtn sACpECwlFtl
’wmCs(+ Fpxtylw IpFtnwp tyIlFtzy ’FIt(+ wzr zq nlCFHwlE CpypGElGtzy ’wnC(+
RwplFzy FnzEp ’rwplFzy(+ lyo CpEnpyG zq RwplFzy FnzEpF ? zE 4 ’Crr34(-
jsp nzEEpwlGtzy xlGEtK zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF rtIpy ty jlmwp “-% FszJF xlyA
FGEzyr nzEEpwlGtzyF- QtrHEp %-% ’Clrp “( zq NslCGpE % tF l FnlGGpECwzG xlGEtK
FszJtyr pIpEA CltEJtFp CwzG mpGJppy Gsp IlEtlmwpF- bp Fpp GslG FIt tF l
mtylEA IlEtlmwp+ lyo rwplFzy tF ly zEopEpo nlGprzEtnlw IlEtlmwp- bp Fpp+ qzE
4/ “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
uLM D 2W0W NzEEpwlGtzyF zq CEpotnGzEF ty Gsp CEzFGlGp nlynpE olGl-
wnlIzw wUptrsG lrp wmCs FIt wnC rwplFzy

wUptrsG $-“$$
lrp $-=][ $-“%fi
wmCs $-$[“ $-?“fi $-=]fi
FIt $-4–“ $-%]% $-%=– }$,%“–
wnC $-[–= $-%4fi $-%fi“ }$,$]– $-[fi%
rwplFzy $-?=[ $-$=? $-“[[ $-$““ $-“$fi $-?fi[
Crr34 $-?]“ $-$fi? $-=fi[ }$,$“$ $-?]% $-[[“ $-fi4fi
uLM D 2W1W typlE xzopw 6G Gz Gsp CEzFGlGp nlynpE olGl- jsp e FnzEp tF Gsp
nzpffntpyG otItopo mA tGF FGlyolEo pEEzE ’“-%=(- hzHrswA l e FnzEp wlErpE Gsly GJz
ty lmFzwHGp IlwHp tF Ftryt6nlyGwA yzyBpEz lG Gsp C ˆ /,/4 wpIpw-
jpEx NzpffntpyG iGo- PEEzE e inzEp

TyGpEnpCG =-?[ $-$– =fi-[$
wnlIzw $-[] $-%“ 4-“fi
wUptrsG $-=[ $-%$ =-fi4
lrp }$,%? $-%$ }%,?$
wmCs $-=% $-%$ =-$[
FIt $-“% $-%= =-?fi
wnC }$,=– $-%4 }%,]fi
rwplFzy }$,$= $-%4 }$,%4
Crr34 $-=fi $-%4 %-fi?
pKlxCwp+ GslG mzGs wnlIzw lyo wnC FszJ l FGEzyr EpwlGtzyFstC JtGs Gsp
EpFCzyFp wCFl+ lyo JtGs plns zGspE- bp yppo Gz ¨G Gsp pΓpnGF uztyGwA Gz
HyGlyrwp Gsp EpwlGtzyFstCF mpGJppy Gsp CEpotnGzEF lyo Gsp EpFCzyFp-
bp ¨G l wtyplE xzopw Gz Gsp wzr zq CEzFGlGp!FCpnt¨n lyGtrpy+ wCFl+ lqGpE
ËFG FGlyolEotBtyr Gsp CEpotnGzEF Gz slIp HytG IlEtlynp- bp ElyozxwA FCwtG
Gsp olGlFpG tyGz l GEltytyr FpG zq FtBp [fi lyo l GpFG FpG zq FtBp “$- bp lC!
Cwtpo wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGtzy Gz Gsp GEltytyr FpG+ CEzoHntyr Gsp pFGtxlGpF+
FGlyolEo pEEzEF lyo e!FnzEpF FszJy ty jlmwp “-=- jsp e!FnzEpF lEp opÿpo
ty ’“-%=(+ lyo xplFHEp Gsp pΓpnG zq oEzCCtyr GslG IlEtlmwp qEzx Gsp xzopw-
L e!FnzEp rEplGpE Gsly = ty lmFzwHGp IlwHp tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA Ftryt¨nlyG lG
Gsp 40 wpIpw- ’QzE zHE pKlxCwp+ Jp slIp ytyp ClElxpGpEF+ lyo Gsp $,$=4 Gltw
DHlyGtwpF zq Gsp G[fi}8 otFGEtmHGtzy lEp ±=,$$=,( jsp CEpotnGzE wnlIzw FszJF
Gsp FGEzyrpFG pΓpnG+ JtGs wUptrsG lyo FIt lwFz FGEzyr- YzGtnp GslG wnC tF
yzG Ftryt¨nlyG+ zynp wnlIzw tF ty Gsp xzopw ’Jspy HFpo ty l xzopw JtGszHG
wnlIzw+ wnC tF FGEzyrwA Ftryt¨nlyG(- bp nly lwFz GpFG qzE Gsp pKnwHFtzy zq
l yHxmpE zq GpExF lG zynp+ HFtyr Gsp Q !FGlGtFGtn ’“-%“(- QzE pKlxCwp+ Jp
nzyFtopE oEzCCtyr lww Gsp yzy!Ftryt¨nlyG GpExF ty jlmwp “-=+ ylxpwA lrp+
“-= typlE hprEpFFtzy czopwF lyo plFG iDHlEpF 4%
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tF nlwwpo Gsp ˜mlFp pEEzE ElGp-˙ Spynp Gsp wtyplE xzopw EpoHnpF Gsp mlFp
pEEzE ElGp mA lmzHG 4$0- bp Jtww EpGHEy Gz GstF pKlxCwp wlGpE Gz nzxClEp
IlEtzHF FpwpnGtzy lyo FsEtyvlrp xpGszoF-
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pFGtxlGpF zq Gsp ClElxpGpEF β slIp Gsp FxlwwpFG IlEtlynp lxzyr lww wtyplE
HymtlFpo pFGtxlGpF- bp Jtww xlvp GstF CEpntFp spEp+ lyo lwFz xlvp nwplE
GslG Gsp EpFGEtnGtzy Gz HymtlFpo pFGtxlGpF tF yzG ypnpFFlEtwA l JtFp zyp- jstF
zmFpEIlGtzy Jtww wplo HF Gz nzyFtopE mtlFpo pFGtxlGpF FHns lF Etorp EprEpFFtzy
wlGpE ty Gsp nslCGpE- bp qznHF zy pFGtxlGtzy zq lyA wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy zq
Gsp ClElxpGpEF θ ˆ lj β: qzE pKlxCwp+ CEpotnGtzyF q ’K$ ( ˆ Kj$ β lEp zq GstF
qzEx- jsp wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGp zq lj β tF
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IpnGzE A- Tq Jp lFFHxp GslG Gsp wtyplE xzopw tF nzEEpnG+ lj β— tF HymtlFpo
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GzE θ2 ˆ nj A GslG tF HymtlFpo qzE lj β+ GslG tF+ P’nj A( ˆ lj β+ Gspy
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30:
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Gtzy JtGs wtyplE EprEpFFtzy- Ty wlGpE FpnGtzyF Jp otFnHFF FsEtyvlrp lyo sAmEto
lCCEzlnspF qzE nzyGEzwwtyr IlEtlynp+ lF Jpww lF zGspE otxpyFtzy!EpoHnGtzy
FGElGprtpF- jspFp lww qlww HyopE Gsp rpypElw splotyr xzopw FpwpnGtzy- Xzopw
FpwpnGtzy tF yzG EpFGEtnGpo Gz wtyplE xzopwF: NslCGpE fi nzIpEF GstF GzCtn ty
Fzxp opGltw-
btGs FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy Jp EpGlty zywA l FHmFpG zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF+ lyo pwtx!
tylGp Gsp EpFG qEzx Gsp xzopw- plFG FDHlEpF EprEpFFtzy tF HFpo Gz pFGtxlGp
Gsp nzpffntpyGF zq Gsp tyCHGF GslG lEp EpGltypo- jspEp lEp l yHxmpE zq otq!
qpEpyG FGElGprtpF qzE nszzFtyr Gsp FHmFpG-
“-“-0 MpFG,iHmFpG ipwpnGtzy

MpFG FHmFpG EprEpFFtzy ÿoF qzE plns v ∈ ·$W %W =W , , , W C• Gsp FHmFpG zq FtBp v
GslG rtIpF FxlwwpFG EpFtoHlw FHx zq FDHlEpF ’“-=(- Ly pffntpyG lwrzEtGsx1
Gsp wplCF lyo mzHyoF CEznpoHEp ’QHEytIlw lyo btwFzy+ %–fi?(1xlvpF GstF
qplFtmwp qzE C lF wlErp lF “$ zE ?$- QtrHEp “-4 FszJF lww Gsp FHmFpG xzopwF
qzE Gsp CEzFGlGp nlynpE pKlxCwp- jsp wzJpE mzHyolEA EpCEpFpyGF Gsp xzopwF
GslG lEp pwtrtmwp qzE FpwpnGtzy mA Gsp mpFG!FHmFpGF lCCEzlns- YzGp GslG Gsp
mpFG FHmFpG zq FtBp =+ qzE pKlxCwp+ yppo yzG tynwHop Gsp IlEtlmwp GslG JlF
ty Gsp mpFG FHmFpG zq FtBp % ’qzE GstF pKlxCwp lww Gsp FHmFpGF lEp ypFGpo(-
jsp mpFG!FHmFpG nHEIp ’Epo wzJpE mzHyolEA ty QtrHEp “-4( tF ypnpFFlEtwA
opnEplFtyr+ Fz nlyyzG mp HFpo Gz FpwpnG Gsp FHmFpG FtBp v- jsp DHpFGtzy zq
szJ Gz nszzFp v tyIzwIpF Gsp GElopzΓ mpGJppy mtlF lyo IlEtlynp+ lwzyr JtGs
Gsp xzEp FHmupnGtIp opFtEp qzE ClEFtxzyA- jspEp lEp l yHxmpE zq nEtGpEtl
GslG zyp xlA HFp: GACtnlwwA Jp nszzFp Gsp FxlwwpFG xzopw GslG xtytxtBpF
ly pFGtxlGp zq Gsp pKCpnGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE-
XlyA zq Gsp zGspE lCCEzlnspF GslG Jp otFnHFF ty GstF nslCGpE lEp FtxtwlE+
ty GslG GspA HFp Gsp GEltytyr olGl Gz CEzoHnp l FpDHpynp zq xzopwF IlEAtyr
ty nzxCwpKtGA lyo tyopKpo mA l Ftyrwp ClElxpGpE- Ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy Jp HFp
4] “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
100
•
••
• •
80 •
• •• ••
Residual Sum−of−Squares
• •• ••
• •
• •• •• •
60
•• ••• •• ••
• •• •• • •
• •• •• ••
• • •• ••
••• •• •
•• ••
40
•• • ••
•••
••• •••
• •
••• •
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Subset Size k
QTRIFD 2W4W Lww CzFFtmwp FHmFpG xzopwF qzE Gsp CEzFGlGp nlynpE pKlxCwp- LG
plns FHmFpG FtBp tF FszJy Gsp EpFtoHlw FHx,zq,FDHlEpF qzE plns xzopw zq GslG FtBp-
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Gz pFGtxlGp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE lyo FpwpnG v: Gsp LTN nEtGpEtzy

tF l CzCHwlE lwGpEylGtIp- bp opqpE xzEp opGltwpo otFnHFFtzy zq GspFp lyo
zGspE lCCEzlnspF Gz NslCGpE fi-
“-“-1 QzEJlEo, lyo MlnvJlEo,iGpCJtFp ipwpnGtzy

hlGspE Gsly FplEns GsEzHrs lww CzFFtmwp FHmFpGF ’Jstns mpnzxpF tyqplFtmwp
qzE C xHns wlErpE Gsly ?$(+ Jp nly Fppv l rzzo ClGs GsEzHrs Gspx- QzEJlEo,
FGpCJtFp FpwpnGtzy FGlEGF JtGs Gsp tyGpEnpCG+ lyo Gspy FpDHpyGtlwwA looF tyGz
Gsp xzopw Gsp CEpotnGzE GslG xzFG txCEzIpF Gsp ¨G- btGs xlyA nlyotolGp
CEpotnGzEF+ GstF xtrsG Fppx wtvp l wzG zq nzxCHGlGtzy: szJpIpE+ nwpIpE HC!
olGtyr lwrzEtGsxF nly pKCwztG Gsp gh opnzxCzFtGtzy qzE Gsp nHEEpyG ¨G Gz
ElCtowA pFGlmwtFs Gsp ypKG nlyotolGp ’PKpEntFp “-–(- tvp mpFG!FHmFpG Ep!
rEpFFtzy+ qzEJlEo FGpCJtFp CEzoHnpF l FpDHpynp zq xzopwF tyopKpo mA v+ Gsp
FHmFpG FtBp+ Jstns xHFG mp opGpExtypo-
QzEJlEo!FGpCJtFp FpwpnGtzy tF l rEppoA lwrzEtGsx+ CEzoHntyr l ypFGpo Fp!
DHpynp zq xzopwF- Ty GstF FpyFp tG xtrsG Fppx FHm!zCGtxlw nzxClEpo Gz
mpFG!FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy- SzJpIpE+ GspEp lEp FpIpElw EplFzyF JsA tG xtrsG mp
CEpqpEEpo9
“-“ iHmFpG ipwpnGtzy 4–
| NzxCHGlGtzylw: qzE wlErp C Jp nlyyzG nzxCHGp Gsp mpFG FHmFpG Fp!

DHpynp+ mHG Jp nly lwJlAF nzxCHGp Gsp qzEJlEo FGpCJtFp FpDHpynp
’pIpy Jspy C ≫ Y (-
| iGlGtFGtnlw: l CEtnp tF Clto ty IlEtlynp qzE FpwpnGtyr Gsp mpFG FHmFpG
zq plns FtBp: qzEJlEo FGpCJtFp tF l xzEp nzyFGEltypo FplEns+ lyo Jtww
slIp wzJpE IlEtlynp+ mHG CpEslCF xzEp mtlF-
Best Subset
Forward Stepwise
0.95
Backward Stepwise
Forward Stagewise
0.90
} βVV=
0.85
PVVβ’v(
0.80
1
0.75
0.70
0.65
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
iSmFCG itMC v
QTRIFD 2W5W NzxClEtFzy zq qzHE FHmFpG,FpwpnGtzy GpnsytDHpF zy l FtxHwlGpo wty,

plE EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx d ˆ c j β ) ε- jspEp lEp Y ˆ “// zmFpEIlGtzyF zy C ˆ “%
FGlyolEo RlHFFtly IlEtlmwpF+ JtGs CltEJtFp nzEEpwlGtzyF lww pDHlw Gz /,]4- QzE %/ zq
Gsp IlEtlmwpF+ Gsp nzpffntpyGF lEp oElJy lG Elyozx qEzx l Y ’/W /,?( otFGEtmHGtzy‘
Gsp EpFG lEp BpEz- jsp yztFp ε ∼ Y ’/W [,=4(+ EpFHwGtyr ty l Ftrylw,Gz,yztFp ElGtz zq
/,[?- hpFHwGF lEp lIpElrpo zIpE 4/ FtxHwlGtzyF- iszJy tF Gsp xply,FDHlEpo pEEzE
1
zq Gsp pFGtxlGpo nzpffntpyG β’v( lG plns FGpC qEzx Gsp GEHp β-
MlnvJlEo,FGpCJtFp FpwpnGtzy FGlEGF JtGs Gsp qHww xzopw+ lyo FpDHpyGtlwwA

opwpGpF Gsp CEpotnGzE GslG slF Gsp wplFG txClnG zy Gsp ¨G- jsp nlyotolGp qzE
oEzCCtyr tF Gsp IlEtlmwp JtGs Gsp FxlwwpFG e!FnzEp ’PKpEntFp “-%$(- MlnvJlEo
FpwpnGtzy nly zywA mp HFpo Jspy Y / C+ Jstwp qzEJlEo FGpCJtFp nly lwJlAF
mp HFpo-
QtrHEp “-[ FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF zq l Fxlww FtxHwlGtzy FGHoA Gz nzxClEp
mpFG!FHmFpG EprEpFFtzy JtGs Gsp FtxCwpE lwGpEylGtIpF qzEJlEo lyo mlnvJlEo
FpwpnGtzy- jsptE CpEqzExlynp tF IpEA FtxtwlE+ lF tF zqGpy Gsp nlFp- TynwHopo ty
Gsp ¨rHEp tF qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp EprEpFFtzy ’ypKG FpnGtzy(+ Jstns GlvpF wzyrpE
Gz Eplns xtytxHx pEEzE-
[/ “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
Zy Gsp CEzFGlGp nlynpE pKlxCwp+ mpFG!FHmFpG+ qzEJlEo lyo mlnvJlEo Fp!

wpnGtzy lww rlIp pKlnGwA Gsp Flxp FpDHpynp zq GpExF-
izxp FzqGJlEp ClnvlrpF txCwpxpyG sAmEto FGpCJtFp!FpwpnGtzy FGElGprtpF
GslG nzyFtopE mzGs qzEJlEo lyo mlnvJlEo xzIpF lG plns FGpC+ lyo FpwpnG
Gsp ˜mpFG˙ zq Gsp GJz- QzE pKlxCwp ty Gsp h Clnvlrp Gsp FRpC qHynGtzy HFpF
Gsp LTN nEtGpEtzy qzE Jptrstyr Gsp nsztnpF+ Jstns GlvpF CEzCpE lnnzHyG zq
Gsp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF ¨G: lG plns FGpC ly loo zE oEzC Jtww mp CpEqzExpo
GslG xtytxtBpF Gsp LTN FnzEp-
ZGspE xzEp GElotGtzylw ClnvlrpF mlFp Gsp FpwpnGtzy zy Q !FGlGtFGtnF+ lootyr
˜Ftryt¨nlyG˙ GpExF+ lyo oEzCCtyr ˜yzy!Ftryt¨nlyG˙ GpExF- jspFp lEp zHG
zq qlFstzy+ Ftynp GspA oz yzG Glvp CEzCpE lnnzHyG zq Gsp xHwGtCwp GpFGtyr
tFFHpF- TG tF lwFz GpxCGtyr lqGpE l xzopw FplEns Gz CEtyG zHG l FHxxlEA zq
Gsp nszFpy xzopw+ FHns lF ty jlmwp “-=: szJpIpE+ Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzEF lEp
yzG Ilwto+ Ftynp GspA oz yzG lnnzHyG qzE Gsp FplEns CEznpFF- jsp mzzGFGElC
’ipnGtzy ]-=( nly mp HFpqHw ty FHns FpGGtyrF-
QtylwwA+ Jp yzGp GslG zqGpy IlEtlmwpF nzxp ty rEzHCF ’FHns lF Gsp oHxxA
IlEtlmwpF GslG nzop l xHwGt!wpIpw nlGprzEtnlw CEpotnGzE(- ixlEG FGpCJtFp CEz!
npoHEpF ’FHns lF FRpC ty h( Jtww loo zE oEzC Jszwp rEzHCF lG l Gtxp+ Glvtyr
CEzCpE lnnzHyG zq GsptE oprEppF!zq!qEppozx-
“-“-“ QzEJlEo,iGlrpJtFp hprEpFFtzy

QzEJlEo!FGlrpJtFp EprEpFFtzy ’Qi( tF pIpy xzEp nzyFGEltypo Gsly qzEJlEo!
FGpCJtFp EprEpFFtzy- TG FGlEGF wtvp qzEJlEo!FGpCJtFp EprEpFFtzy+ JtGs ly ty!
GpEnpCG pDHlw Gz A3+ lyo npyGpEpo CEpotnGzEF JtGs nzpffntpyGF tytGtlwwA lww $-
LG plns FGpC Gsp lwrzEtGsx topyGt¨pF Gsp IlEtlmwp xzFG nzEEpwlGpo JtGs Gsp
nHEEpyG EpFtoHlw- TG Gspy nzxCHGpF Gsp FtxCwp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyG
zq Gsp EpFtoHlw zy GstF nszFpy IlEtlmwp+ lyo Gspy looF tG Gz Gsp nHEEpyG nz!
pffntpyG qzE GslG IlEtlmwp- jstF tF nzyGtyHpo Gtww yzyp zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF slIp
nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp EpFtoHlwF1t-p- Gsp wplFG!FDHlEpF ¨G Jspy Y / C-
kywtvp qzEJlEo!FGpCJtFp EprEpFFtzy+ yzyp zq Gsp zGspE IlEtlmwpF lEp lo!
uHFGpo Jspy l GpEx tF loopo Gz Gsp xzopw- LF l nzyFpDHpynp+ qzEJlEo
FGlrpJtFp nly Glvp xlyA xzEp Gsly C FGpCF Gz Eplns Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF ¨G+
lyo stFGzEtnlwwA slF mppy otFxtFFpo lF mptyr typffntpyG- TG GHEyF zHG GslG
GstF ˜FwzJ ¨GGtyr˙ nly ClA otItopyoF ty strs!otxpyFtzylw CEzmwpxF- bp
Fpp ty ipnGtzy “-]-% GslG mzGs qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp lyo l IlEtlyG Jstns tF
FwzJpo ozJy pIpy qHEGspE lEp DHtGp nzxCpGtGtIp+ pFCpntlwwA ty IpEA strs!
otxpyFtzylw CEzmwpxF-
QzEJlEo!FGlrpJtFp EprEpFFtzy tF tynwHopo ty QtrHEp “-[- Ty GstF pKlxCwp tG
GlvpF zIpE %$$$ FGpCF Gz rpG lww Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF mpwzJ %$}3 - QzE FHmFpG FtBp
v+ Jp CwzGGpo Gsp pEEzE qzE Gsp wlFG FGpC qzE Jstns GspEp JspEp v yzyBpEz
nzpffntpyGF- LwGszHrs tG nlGnspF HC JtGs Gsp mpFG ¨G+ tG GlvpF wzyrpE Gz
oz Fz-
“-? isEtyvlrp cpGszoF [%
“-“-? fEzFGlGp NlynpE OlGl PKlxCwp ’NzyGtyHpo(

jlmwp “-“ FszJF Gsp nzpffntpyGF qEzx l yHxmpE zq otΓpEpyG FpwpnGtzy lyo
FsEtyvlrp xpGszoF- jspA lEp mpFG,FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy HFtyr ly lww!FHmFpGF FplEns+
Etorp EprEpFFtzy+ Gsp wlFFz+ CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF EprEpFFtzy lyo ClEGtlw wplFG
FDHlEpF- Plns xpGszo slF l nzxCwpKtGA ClElxpGpE+ lyo GstF JlF nszFpy Gz
xtytxtBp ly pFGtxlGp zq CEpotnGtzy pEEzE mlFpo zy Gpyqzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy:
qHww opGltwF lEp rtIpy ty ipnGtzy fi-%$- MEtp7A+ nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy JzEvF mA otIto!
tyr Gsp GEltytyr olGl ElyozxwA tyGz Gpy pDHlw ClEGF- jsp wplEytyr xpGszo
tF ¨G1qzE l Elyrp zq IlwHpF zq Gsp nzxCwpKtGA ClElxpGpE1Gz ytyp!GpyGsF zq
Gsp olGl+ lyo Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE tF nzxCHGpo zy Gsp Epxltytyr zyp!GpyGs-
jstF tF ozyp ty GHEy qzE plns zyp!GpyGs zq Gsp olGl+ lyo Gsp Gpy CEpotnGtzy
pEEzE pFGtxlGpF lEp lIpElrpo- QEzx GstF Jp zmGlty ly pFGtxlGpo CEpotnGtzy
pEEzE nHEIp lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp nzxCwpKtGA ClElxpGpE-
YzGp GslG Jp slIp lwEploA otItopo GspFp olGl tyGz l GEltytyr FpG zq FtBp
[fi lyo l GpFG FpG zq FtBp “$- NEzFF!IlwtolGtzy tF lCCwtpo Gz Gsp GEltytyr FpG+
Ftynp FpwpnGtyr Gsp FsEtyvlrp ClElxpGpE tF ClEG zq Gsp GEltytyr CEznpFF- jsp
GpFG FpG tF GspEp Gz uHorp Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp FpwpnGpo xzopw-
jsp pFGtxlGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE nHEIpF lEp FszJy ty QtrHEp “-fi- XlyA zq
Gsp nHEIpF lEp IpEA 7lG zIpE wlErp ElyrpF yplE GsptE xtytxHx- TynwHopo
lEp pFGtxlGpo FGlyolEo pEEzE mlyoF qzE plns pFGtxlGpo pEEzE ElGp+ mlFpo zy
Gsp Gpy pEEzE pFGtxlGpF nzxCHGpo mA nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- bp slIp HFpo Gsp
˜zyp!FGlyolEo!pEEzE˙ EHwp1Jp Ctnv Gsp xzFG ClEFtxzytzHF xzopw JtGsty
zyp FGlyolEo pEEzE zq Gsp xtytxHx ’ipnGtzy fi-%$+ Clrp =??(- iHns l EHwp
lnvyzJwporpF Gsp qlnG GslG Gsp GElopzΓ nHEIp tF pFGtxlGpo JtGs pEEzE+ lyo
spynp GlvpF l nzyFpEIlGtIp lCCEzlns-
MpFG!FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy nszFp Gz HFp Gsp GJz CEpotnGzEF wnIzw lyo wUptrsG-
jsp wlFG GJz wtypF zq Gsp Glmwp rtIp Gsp lIpElrp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE ’lyo tGF
pFGtxlGpo FGlyolEo pEEzE( zIpE Gsp GpFG FpG-
“-? isEtyvlrp cpGszoF

MA EpGltytyr l FHmFpG zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF lyo otFnlEotyr Gsp EpFG+ FHmFpG Fpwpn!
Gtzy CEzoHnpF l xzopw GslG tF tyGpECEpGlmwp lyo slF CzFFtmwA wzJpE CEpotn!
Gtzy pEEzE Gsly Gsp qHww xzopw- SzJpIpE+ mpnlHFp tG tF l otFnEpGp CEznpFF1
IlEtlmwpF lEp ptGspE EpGltypo zE otFnlEopo1tG zqGpy pKstmtGF strs IlEtlynp+
lyo Fz ozpFy&G EpoHnp Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE zq Gsp qHww xzopw- isEtyvlrp
xpGszoF lEp xzEp nzyGtyHzHF+ lyo ozy&G FHΓpE lF xHns qEzx strs
IlEtlmtwtGA-
“-?-0 htorp hprEpFFtzy

htorp EprEpFFtzy FsEtyvF Gsp EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyGF mA txCzFtyr l CpylwGA
zy GsptE FtBp- jsp Etorp nzpffntpyGF xtytxtBp l CpylwtBpo EpFtoHlw FHx zq
[= “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
All Subsets Ridge Regression
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
• •
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
CV Error
CV Error
•
1.0
1.0
•
0.8
0.8
• •
• • • • •
0.6
0.6
• • • • • • •
0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8
Subset Size Degrees of Freedom
Lasso Principal Components Regression

1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
• •
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
CV Error
CV Error
•
1.0
1.0
• •
0.8
0.8
•
• • • • • • • • •
•
0.6
0.6
• •
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 2 4 6 8
Shrinkage Factor s Number of Directions
Partial Least Squares

1.8
1.6
•
1.4
1.2
CV Error
1.0
0.8
•
•
0.6
• • • • • •
0 2 4 6 8
Number of Directions
QTRIFD 2W6W PFGtxlGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE nHEIpF lyo GsptE FGlyolEo pEEzEF qzE
Gsp IlEtzHF FpwpnGtzy lyo FsEtyvlrp xpGszoF- Plns nHEIp tF CwzGGpo lF l qHynGtzy
zq Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr nzxCwpKtGA ClElxpGpE qzE GslG xpGszo- jsp szEtBzyGlw lKtF
slF mppy nszFpy Fz GslG Gsp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA tynEplFpF lF Jp xzIp qEzx wpqG Gz
EtrsG- jsp pFGtxlGpF zq CEpotnGtzy pEEzE lyo GsptE FGlyolEo pEEzEF JpEp zmGltypo mA
Gpyqzwo nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy‘ qHww opGltwF lEp rtIpy ty ipnGtzy fi-%/- jsp wplFG nzxCwpK
xzopw JtGsty zyp FGlyolEo pEEzE zq Gsp mpFG tF nszFpy+ tyotnlGpo mA Gsp CHECwp
IpEGtnlw mEzvpy wtypF-
“-? isEtyvlrp cpGszoF [“
uLM D 2W2W PFGtxlGpo nzpffntpyGF lyo GpFG pEEzE EpFHwGF+ qzE ot;pEpyG FHmFpG
lyo FsEtyvlrp xpGszoF lCCwtpo Gz Gsp CEzFGlGp olGl- jsp mwlyv pyGEtpF nzEEpFCzyo
Gz IlEtlmwpF zxtGGpo-
jpEx i MpFG iHmFpG htorp lFFz fNh f i

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wnlIzw /-[]/ /-fi?/ /-?=/ /-4““ /-4?“ /-?%–
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lrp }/,%?% }/,/?[ }/,%4= }/,/=[
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β tˆ0 Hˆ0 Hˆ0
SpEp λ ≥ $ tF l nzxCwpKtGA ClElxpGpE GslG nzyGEzwF Gsp lxzHyG zq FsEtyv!

lrp9 Gsp wlErpE Gsp IlwHp zq λ+ Gsp rEplGpE Gsp lxzHyG zq FsEtyvlrp- jsp
nzpffntpyGF lEp FsEHyv GzJlEo BpEz ’lyo plns zGspE(- jsp topl zq CpylwtB!
tyr mA Gsp FHx!zq!FDHlEpF zq Gsp ClElxpGpEF tF lwFz HFpo ty ypHElw ypGJzEvF+
JspEp tG tF vyzJy lF JptrsG opnlA ’NslCGpE %%(-
Ly pDHtIlwpyG JlA Gz JEtGp Gsp Etorp CEzmwpx tF
Y &
∑ C
∑ '=
β—Etorp ˆ lErxty At } β$ } KtH βH W
β tˆ0 Hˆ0
C
’“-?=(
∑
FHmupnG Gz βH= ≤ GW
Hˆ0
Jstns xlvpF pKCwtntG Gsp FtBp nzyFGEltyG zy Gsp ClElxpGpEF- jspEp tF l zyp!
Gz!zyp nzEEpFCzyopynp mpGJppy Gsp ClElxpGpEF λ ty ’“-?%( lyo G ty ’“-?=(-
bspy GspEp lEp xlyA nzEEpwlGpo IlEtlmwpF ty l wtyplE EprEpFFtzy xzopw+
GsptE nzpffntpyGF nly mpnzxp CzzEwA opGpExtypo lyo pKstmtG strs IlEtlynp-
L JtwowA wlErp CzFtGtIp nzpffntpyG zy zyp IlEtlmwp nly mp nlynpwpo mA l
FtxtwlEwA wlErp yprlGtIp nzpffntpyG zy tGF nzEEpwlGpo nzHFty- MA txCzFtyr l
FtBp nzyFGEltyG zy Gsp nzpffntpyGF+ lF ty ’“-?=(+ GstF CEzmwpx tF lwwpItlGpo-
jsp Etorp FzwHGtzyF lEp yzG pDHtIlEtlyG HyopE Fnlwtyr zq Gsp tyCHGF+ lyo
Fz zyp yzExlwwA FGlyolEotBpF Gsp tyCHGF mpqzEp FzwItyr ’“-?%(- Ty lootGtzy+
[? “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
yzGtnp GslG Gsp tyGpEnpCG β$ slF mppy wpqG zHG zq Gsp CpylwGA GpEx- fpylw!
tBlGtzy zq Gsp tyGpEnpCG JzHwo xlvp Gsp CEznpoHEp opCpyo zy Gsp zEtrty
nszFpy qzE d : GslG tF+ lootyr l nzyFGlyG n Gz plns zq Gsp GlErpGF At JzHwo
yzG FtxCwA EpFHwG ty l FstqG zq Gsp CEpotnGtzyF mA Gsp Flxp lxzHyG n- TG
nly mp FszJy ’PKpEntFp “-4( GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz ’“-?%( nly mp FpClElGpo
tyGz GJz ClEGF+ lqGpE EpClElxpGEtBlGtzy HFtyr npyGpEpo tyCHGF9 plns KtH rpGF
(Y
EpCwlnpo mA KtH } K3H - bp pFGtxlGp β$ mA A3 ˆ Y0 0 At - jsp Epxltytyr nz!
pffntpyGF rpG pFGtxlGpo mA l Etorp EprEpFFtzy JtGszHG tyGpEnpCG+ HFtyr Gsp
npyGpEpo KtH - SpynpqzEGs Jp lFFHxp GslG GstF npyGpEtyr slF mppy ozyp+ Fz
GslG Gsp tyCHG xlGEtK c slF C ’ElGspE Gsly C ) %( nzwHxyF-
bEtGtyr Gsp nEtGpEtzy ty ’“-?%( ty xlGEtK qzEx+
hii’λ( ˆ ’A } cβ(j ’A } cβ( ) λβ j βW ’“-?“(
Gsp Etorp EprEpFFtzy FzwHGtzyF lEp plFtwA Fppy Gz mp
β—Etorp ˆ ’cj c ) λT(}0 cj AW ’“-??(
JspEp T tF Gsp C×C topyGtGA xlGEtK- YzGtnp GslG JtGs Gsp nsztnp zq DHloElGtn
CpylwGA β j β+ Gsp Etorp EprEpFFtzy FzwHGtzy tF lrlty l wtyplE qHynGtzy zq
A- jsp FzwHGtzy looF l CzFtGtIp nzyFGlyG Gz Gsp otlrzylw zq cj c mpqzEp
tyIpEFtzy- jstF xlvpF Gsp CEzmwpx yzyFtyrHwlE+ pIpy tq cj c tF yzG zq qHww
Elyv+ lyo JlF Gsp xlty xzGtIlGtzy qzE Etorp EprEpFFtzy Jspy tG JlF ËFG
tyGEzoHnpo ty FGlGtFGtnF ’SzpEw lyo VpyylEo+ %–fi$(- jElotGtzylw opFnEtCGtzyF
zq Etorp EprEpFFtzy FGlEG JtGs opÿtGtzy ’“-??(- bp nszzFp Gz xzGtIlGp tG Itl
’“-?%( lyo ’“-?=(+ lF GspFp CEzItop tyFtrsG tyGz szJ tG JzEvF-
QtrHEp “-] FszJF Gsp Etorp nzpffntpyG pFGtxlGpF qzE Gsp CEzFGlGp nly!
npE pKlxCwp+ CwzGGpo lF qHynGtzyF zq oq’λ(+ Gsp p;pnGtIp oprEppF zq qEppozx
txCwtpo mA Gsp CpylwGA λ ’opÿpo ty ’“-4$( zy Clrp [](- Ty Gsp nlFp zq zE!
GszyzExlw tyCHGF+ Gsp Etorp pFGtxlGpF lEp uHFG l Fnlwpo IpEFtzy zq Gsp wplFG
FDHlEpF pFGtxlGpF+ GslG tF+ β—Etorp ˆ β.’%
— ) λ(-
htorp EprEpFFtzy nly lwFz mp opEtIpo lF Gsp xply zE xzop zq l CzFGp!
EtzE otFGEtmHGtzy+ JtGs l FHtGlmwA nszFpy CEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy- Ty opGltw+ FHC!
CzFp At ∼ Y ’β$ ) Kjt βW σ = (+ lyo Gsp ClElxpGpEF βH lEp plns otFGEtmHGpo lF
Y ’$W τ = (+ tyopCpyopyGwA zq zyp lyzGspE- jspy Gsp ’yprlGtIp( wzr!CzFGpEtzE
opyFtGA zq β+ JtGs τ = lyo σ = lFFHxpo vyzJy+ tF pDHlw Gz Gsp pKCEpFFtzy
ty nHEwA mElnpF ty ’“-?%(+ JtGs λ ˆ σ = .τ = ’PKpEntFp “-[(- jsHF Gsp Etorp
pFGtxlGp tF Gsp xzop zq Gsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy: Ftynp Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy tF
RlHFFtly+ tG tF lwFz Gsp CzFGpEtzE xply-
jsp FtyrHwlE IlwHp opnzxCzFtGtzy ’iaO( zq Gsp npyGpEpo tyCHG xlGEtK c
rtIpF HF Fzxp lootGtzylw tyFtrsG tyGz Gsp ylGHEp zq Etorp EprEpFFtzy- jstF op!
nzxCzFtGtzy tF pKGEpxpwA HFpqHw ty Gsp lylwAFtF zq xlyA FGlGtFGtnlw xpGszoF-
jsp iaO zq Gsp Y × C xlGEtK c slF Gsp qzEx
c ˆ kOaj , ’“-?4(
“-? isEtyvlrp cpGszoF [4
• lcavol
••
•
0.6
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
0.4
•
•
•
• • svi
• • • • • •• • lweight
• pgg45
• • •• • •
Coefficients
•
• • •• • •
•
•• •• •
• •• • lbph
0.2
• • • • • ••
• • •
• • • •• • •
• •• • • • • •
• • • • • • • • •
• • •
• • •• • •
• •• •
•• •• • •• •• • • •• •• • •
• • • • • •
•
•• •• •• •• •• • • • • • •
• • • • • ••
0.0
• • • •
• • • • gleason
• • •
• ••
• • • ••
• •
• • age
•
−0.2
•
•
• lcp
0 2 4 6 8
oq’λ(
QTRIFD 2W7W fEz6wpF zq Etorp nzpffntpyGF qzE Gsp CEzFGlGp nlynpE pKlxCwp+ lF
Gsp GHytyr ClElxpGpE λ tF IlEtpo- NzpffntpyGF lEp CwzGGpo IpEFHF oq’λ(+ Gsp p;pnGtIp
oprEppF zq qEppozx- L IpEGtnlw wtyp tF oElJy lG oq ˆ 4,/+ Gsp IlwHp nszFpy mA
nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy-
[[ “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
SpEp k lyo a lEp Y × C lyo C × C zEGszrzylw xlGEtnpF+ JtGs Gsp nzwHxyF

zq k FClyytyr Gsp nzwHxy FClnp zq c+ lyo Gsp nzwHxyF zq a FClyytyr Gsp
EzJ FClnp- O tF l C × C otlrzylw xlGEtK+ JtGs otlrzylw pyGEtpF o0 ≥ o= ≥
± ± ± ≥ oC ≥ $ nlwwpo Gsp FtyrHwlE IlwHpF zq c- Tq zyp zE xzEp IlwHpF oH ˆ $+
c tF FtyrHwlE-
kFtyr Gsp FtyrHwlE IlwHp opnzxCzFtGtzy Jp nly JEtGp Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF
¨GGpo IpnGzE lF
cβ—wF ˆ c’cj c(}0 cj A

ˆ kkj AW ’“-?[(
lqGpE Fzxp FtxCwt¨nlGtzy- YzGp GslG kj A lEp Gsp nzzEotylGpF zq A JtGs

EpFCpnG Gz Gsp zEGszyzExlw mlFtF k- YzGp lwFz Gsp FtxtwlEtGA JtGs ’“-““(:
g lyo k lEp rpypElwwA otΓpEpyG zEGszrzylw mlFpF qzE Gsp nzwHxy FClnp zq
c ’PKpEntFp “-](-
YzJ Gsp Etorp FzwHGtzyF lEp
cβ—Etorp ˆ c’cj c ) λT(}0 cj A

ˆ k O’O= ) λT(}0 O kj A
∑C
o=H
ˆ HH = HjH AW ’“-?fi(
Hˆ0
oH ) λ
JspEp Gsp HH lEp Gsp nzwHxyF zq k- YzGp GslG Ftynp λ ≥ $+ Jp slIp o=H .’o=H )
λ( ≤ %- tvp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy+ Etorp EprEpFFtzy nzxCHGpF Gsp nzzEotylGpF zq
A JtGs EpFCpnG Gz Gsp zEGszyzExlw mlFtF k- TG Gspy FsEtyvF GspFp nzzEotylGpF
mA Gsp qlnGzEF o=H .’o=H ) λ(- jstF xplyF GslG l rEplGpE lxzHyG zq FsEtyvlrp
tF lCCwtpo Gz Gsp nzzEotylGpF zq mlFtF IpnGzEF JtGs FxlwwpE o=H -
bslG ozpF l Fxlww IlwHp zq o=H xply¯ jsp iaO zq Gsp npyGpEpo xlGEtK
c tF lyzGspE JlA zq pKCEpFFtyr Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF
ty c- jsp FlxCwp nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK tF rtIpy mA i ˆ cj c.Y + lyo qEzx
’“-?4( Jp slIp
cj c ˆ aO= aj W ’“-?](
Jstns tF Gsp ptrpy opnzxCzFtGtzy zq cj c ’lyo zq i+ HC Gz l qlnGzE Y (-

jsp ptrpyIpnGzEF IH ’nzwHxyF zq a( lEp lwFz nlwwpo Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCz,
ypyGF ’zE VlEsHypy8 zpIp( otEpnGtzyF zq c- jsp ËFG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG
otEpnGtzy I0 slF Gsp CEzCpEGA GslG B0 ˆ cI0 slF Gsp wlErpFG FlxCwp IlEt!
lynp lxzyrFG lww yzExlwtBpo wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF zq Gsp nzwHxyF zq c- jstF
FlxCwp IlEtlynp tF plFtwA Fppy Gz mp
o=0
alE’B0 ( ˆ alE’cI0 ( ˆ W ’“-?–(
Y
lyo ty qlnG B0 ˆ cI0 ˆ H0 o0 - jsp opEtIpo IlEtlmwp B0 tF nlwwpo Gsp ËFG
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG zq c+ lyo spynp H0 tF Gsp yzExlwtBpo ËFG CEtyntClw
“-? isEtyvlrp cpGszoF [fi
4
Largest Principal o
Component
o o
o o oo o o
2
o oo oo
ooooo o
oooo o
o o oo
ooo oo o o ooo o o o
o o oo
o o
o o o o o
o ooo ooooo o ooo o o
o ooooo ooo o o o o
c=
oo oo o o oo o
oo oo oooo o o
0
o o o o o
ooo o oo
o o oo o o o
o
ooo o ooooo
o ooo ooo
oo o o
oo oo oooooooo o o
o
o ooo oo ooo o o
o ooo oo o o
o o oo o
o o
-2
oo o o
oo o Smallest Principal
o
Component
o
o
-4
-4 -2 0 2 4
c0
QTRIFD 2W8W fEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF zq Fzxp tyCHG olGl CztyGF- jsp wlErpFG CEty,
ntClw nzxCzypyG tF Gsp otEpnGtzy GslG xlKtxtBpF Gsp IlEtlynp zq Gsp CEzupnGpo olGl+
lyo Gsp FxlwwpFG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG xtytxtBpF GslG IlEtlynp- htorp EprEpFFtzy
CEzupnGF A zyGz GspFp nzxCzypyGF+ lyo Gspy FsEtyvF Gsp nzpffntpyGF zq Gsp wzJ8
IlEtlynp nzxCzypyGF xzEp Gsly Gsp strs,IlEtlynp nzxCzypyGF-
nzxCzypyG- iHmFpDHpyG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF BH slIp xlKtxHx IlEtlynp

o=H .Y + FHmupnG Gz mptyr zEGszrzylw Gz Gsp plEwtpE zypF- NzyIpEFpwA Gsp wlFG
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG slF xtytxHx IlEtlynp- Spynp Gsp Fxlww FtyrHwlE Ilw!
HpF oH nzEEpFCzyo Gz otEpnGtzyF ty Gsp nzwHxy FClnp zq c slItyr Fxlww
IlEtlynp+ lyo Etorp EprEpFFtzy FsEtyvF GspFp otEpnGtzyF Gsp xzFG-
QtrHEp “-– twwHFGElGpF Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF zq Fzxp olGl CztyGF ty
GJz otxpyFtzyF- Tq Jp nzyFtopE ¨GGtyr l wtyplE FHEqlnp zIpE GstF ozxlty
’Gsp d !lKtF tF FGtnvtyr zHG zq Gsp Clrp(+ Gsp nzy¨rHElGtzy zq Gsp olGl lwwzJ
HF Gz opGpExtyp tGF rElotpyG xzEp lnnHElGpwA ty Gsp wzyr otEpnGtzy Gsly
Gsp FszEG- htorp EprEpFFtzy CEzGpnGF lrltyFG Gsp CzGpyGtlwwA strs IlEtlynp
zq rElotpyGF pFGtxlGpo ty Gsp FszEG otEpnGtzyF- jsp txCwtntG lFFHxCGtzy tF
GslG Gsp EpFCzyFp Jtww Gpyo Gz IlEA xzFG ty Gsp otEpnGtzyF zq strs IlEtlynp
zq Gsp tyCHGF- jstF tF zqGpy l EplFzylmwp lFFHxCGtzy+ Ftynp CEpotnGzEF lEp
zqGpy nszFpy qzE FGHoA mpnlHFp GspA IlEA JtGs Gsp EpFCzyFp IlEtlmwp+ mHG
yppo yzG szwo ty rpypElw-
[] “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
Ty QtrHEp “-fi Jp slIp CwzGGpo Gsp pFGtxlGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE IpEFHF Gsp
DHlyGtGA
oq’λ( ˆ GE”c’cj c ) λT(}0 cj flW

ˆ GE’Sλ (
∑C
o=H
ˆ , ’“-4$(
o= ) λ
Hˆ0 H
jstF xzyzGzyp opnEplFtyr qHynGtzy zq λ tF Gsp p;pnGtIp oprEppF zq qEppozx

zq Gsp Etorp EprEpFFtzy ¨G- kFHlwwA ty l wtyplE!EprEpFFtzy ¨G JtGs C IlEtlmwpF+
Gsp oprEppF!zq!qEppozx zq Gsp ¨G tF C+ Gsp yHxmpE zq qEpp ClElxpGpEF- jsp
topl tF GslG lwGszHrs lww C nzpffntpyGF ty l Etorp ¨G Jtww mp yzy!BpEz+ GspA
lEp ¨G ty l EpFGEtnGpo qlFstzy nzyGEzwwpo mA λ- YzGp GslG oq’λ( ˆ C Jspy
λ ˆ $ ’yz EprHwlEtBlGtzy( lyo oq’λ( → $ lF λ → ∞- Zq nzHEFp GspEp
tF lwJlAF ly lootGtzylw zyp oprEpp zq qEppozx qzE Gsp tyGpEnpCG+ Jstns JlF
EpxzIpo lCEtzEt- jstF opÿtGtzy tF xzGtIlGpo ty xzEp opGltw ty ipnGtzy “-?-?
lyo ipnGtzyF fi-?8fi-[- Ty QtrHEp “-fi Gsp xtytxHx znnHEF lG oq’λ( ˆ 4,$-
jlmwp “-“ FszJF GslG Etorp EprEpFFtzy EpoHnpF Gsp GpFG pEEzE zq Gsp qHww wplFG
FDHlEpF pFGtxlGpF mA l Fxlww lxzHyG-
“-?-1 jsp lFFz

jsp wlFFz tF l FsEtyvlrp xpGszo wtvp Etorp+ JtGs FHmGwp mHG txCzEGlyG otq!
qpEpynpF- jsp wlFFz pFGtxlGp tF opÿpo mA
Y &
∑ C
∑ '=
β—wlFFB ˆ lErxty At } β$ } KtH βH
β tˆ0 Hˆ0
C
∑
FHmupnG Gz KβH K ≤ G, ’“-4%(
Hˆ0
UHFG lF ty Etorp EprEpFFtzy+ Jp nly Ep!ClElxpGEtBp Gsp nzyFGlyG β$ mA FGly!

olEotBtyr Gsp CEpotnGzEF: Gsp FzwHGtzy qzE β—$ tF A3+ lyo GspEplqGpE Jp ¨G l
xzopw JtGszHG ly tyGpEnpCG ’PKpEntFp “-4(- Ty Gsp Ftrylw CEznpFFtyr wtGpEl!
GHEp+ Gsp wlFFz tF lwFz vyzJy lF mlFtF CHEFHtG ’Nspy pG lw-+ %––](-
bp nly lwFz JEtGp Gsp wlFFz CEzmwpx ty Gsp pDHtIlwpyG lrElyrtly qzEx
{ ∑ Y ∑C ∑C }
% $ %=
—
β wlFFB
ˆ lErxty At } β$ } KtH βH ) λ KβH K , ’“-4=(
β = tˆ0 Hˆ0 Hˆ0
YzGtnp Gsp FtxtwlEtGA

(C Gz= Gsp Etorp EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx ’“-?=( zE(C’“-?%(9 Gsp
= Etorp CpylwGA β
0 H tF EpCwlnpo mA Gsp 0 wlFFz CpylwGA 0 KβH K- jstF
wlGGpE nzyFGEltyG xlvpF Gsp FzwHGtzyF yzywtyplE ty Gsp At + lyo GspEp tF yz
nwzFpo qzEx pKCEpFFtzy lF ty Etorp EprEpFFtzy- NzxCHGtyr Gsp wlFFz FzwHGtzy
“-? isEtyvlrp cpGszoF [–
tF l DHloElGtn CEzrElxxtyr CEzmwpx+ lwGszHrs Jp Fpp ty ipnGtzy “-?-? GslG

pffntpyG lwrzEtGsxF lEp lIltwlmwp qzE nzxCHGtyr Gsp pyGtEp ClGs zq FzwHGtzyF
lF λ tF IlEtpo+ JtGs Gsp Flxp nzxCHGlGtzylw nzFG lF qzE Etorp EprEpFFtzy-
MpnlHFp zq Gsp ylGHEp zq Gsp nzyFGEltyG+ xlvtyr G FHffntpyGwA Fxlww Jtww
nlHFp Fzxp zq Gsp nzpffntpyGF Gz mp pKlnGwA BpEz- jsHF Gsp wlFFz (C ozpF l vtyo
zq nzyGtyHzHF FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy- Tq G tF nszFpy wlErpE Gsly G$ ˆ 0 Kβ—H K ’JspEp
β—H ˆ β—HwF + Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGpF(+ Gspy Gsp wlFFz pFGtxlGpF lEp Gsp β—H &F-
Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ qzE G ˆ G$ .= FlA+ Gspy Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF nzpffntpyGF lEp
FsEHyv mA lmzHG 4$0 zy lIpElrp- SzJpIpE+ Gsp ylGHEp zq Gsp FsEtyvlrp
tF yzG zmItzHF+ lyo Jp tyIpFGtrlGp tG qHEGspE ty ipnGtzy “-?-? mpwzJ- tvp
Gsp FHmFpG FtBp ty IlEtlmwp FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy+ zE Gsp CpylwGA ClElxpGpE ty
Etorp EprEpFFtzy+ G FszHwo mp lolCGtIpwA nszFpy Gz xtytxtBp ly pFGtxlGp zq
pKCpnGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE-
Ty QtrHEp “-fi+ qzE plFp zq tyGpECEpGlGtzy+ Jp slIp CwzGGpo Gsp wlFFz (C CEp!
otnGtzy pEEzE pFGtxlGpF IpEFHF Gsp FGlyolEotBpo ClElxpGpE F ˆ G. 0 Kβ—H K-
L IlwHp F— ≈ $,“[ JlF nszFpy mA %$!qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy: GstF nlHFpo qzHE
nzpffntpyGF Gz mp FpG Gz BpEz ’¨qGs nzwHxy zq jlmwp “-“(- jsp EpFHwGtyr
xzopw slF Gsp Fpnzyo wzJpFG GpFG pEEzE+ FwtrsGwA wzJpE Gsly Gsp qHww wplFG
FDHlEpF xzopw+ mHG Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzEF zq Gsp GpFG pEEzE pFGtxlGpF ’wlFG wtyp
zq jlmwp “-“( lEp qltEwA wlErp-
QtrHEp “-%$ FszJF (C Gsp wlFFz nzpffntpyGF lF Gsp FGlyolEotBpo GHytyr Cl!
ElxpGpE F ˆ G. 0 Kβ—H K tF IlEtpo- LG F ˆ %,$ GspFp lEp Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF
pFGtxlGpF: GspA opnEplFp Gz $ lF F → $- jstF opnEplFp tF yzG lwJlAF FGEtnGwA
xzyzGzytn+ lwGszHrs tG tF ty GstF pKlxCwp- L IpEGtnlw wtyp tF oElJy lG
F ˆ $,“[+ Gsp IlwHp nszFpy mA nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy-
“-?-“ OtFnHFFtzy9 iHmFpG ipwpnGtzy) htorp hprEpFFtzy lyo Gsp

lFFz
Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp otFnHFF lyo nzxClEp Gsp GsEpp lCCEzlnspF otFnHFFpo Fz qlE
qzE EpFGEtnGtyr Gsp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy xzopw9 FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy+ Etorp EprEpFFtzy
lyo Gsp wlFFz-
Ty Gsp nlFp zq ly zEGszyzExlw tyCHG xlGEtK c Gsp GsEpp CEznpoHEpF slIp
pKCwtntG FzwHGtzyF- Plns xpGszo lCCwtpF l FtxCwp GElyFqzExlGtzy Gz Gsp wplFG
FDHlEpF pFGtxlGp β—H + lF opGltwpo ty jlmwp “-?-
htorp EprEpFFtzy ozpF l CEzCzEGtzylw FsEtyvlrp- lFFz GElyFwlGpF plns
nzpffntpyG mA l nzyFGlyG qlnGzE λ+ GEHynlGtyr lG BpEz- jstF tF nlwwpo ˜FzqG
GsEpFszwotyr+˙ lyo tF HFpo ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq JlIpwpG!mlFpo FxzzGstyr ty ipn!
Gtzy 4-–- MpFG!FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy oEzCF lww IlEtlmwpF JtGs nzpffntpyGF FxlwwpE
Gsly Gsp X Gs wlErpFG: GstF tF l qzEx zq ˜slEo!GsEpFszwotyr-˙
Mlnv Gz Gsp yzyzEGszrzylw nlFp: Fzxp CtnGHEpF spwC HyopEFGlyo GsptE Ep!
wlGtzyFstC- QtrHEp “-%% opCtnGF Gsp wlFFz ’wpqG( lyo Etorp EprEpFFtzy ’EtrsG(
Jspy GspEp lEp zywA GJz ClElxpGpEF- jsp EpFtoHlw FHx zq FDHlEpF slF pwwtC!
Gtnlw nzyGzHEF+ npyGpEpo lG Gsp qHww wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGp- jsp nzyFGEltyG
fi/ “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
lcavol
0.6
0.4
svi
lweight
pgg45
Coefficients
lbph
0.2
0.0
gleason
age
−0.2
lcp
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Shrinkage Factor s
QTRIFD 2W0.W fEz6wpF zq wlFFz nzpffntpyGF+ lF Gsp GHytyr ClElxpGpE R tF IlEtpo-

NzpffntpyGF lEp CwzGGpo IpEFHF F ˆ R. N0 Vβ1u V- L IpEGtnlw wtyp tF oElJy lG F ˆ /,“[+
C
Gsp IlwHp nszFpy mA nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy- NzxClEp QtrHEp “-fl zy Clrp ”4‘ Gsp wlFFz
CEz6wpF stG BpEz+ Jstwp GszFp qzE Etorp oz yzG- jsp CEz6wpF lEp Ctpnp,JtFp wtyplE+
lyo Fz lEp nzxCHGpo zywA lG Gsp CztyGF otFCwlApo‘ Fpp ipnGtzy “-3-3 qzE opGltwF-
“-? isEtyvlrp cpGszoF fi%
uLM D 2W3W PFGtxlGzEF zq βu ty Gsp nlFp zq zEGszyzExlw nzwHxyF zq y- X lyo λ

lEp nzyFGlyGF nszFpy mA Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr GpnsytDHpF‘ Ftry opyzGpF Gsp Ftry zq tGF
lErHxpyG ’±%(+ lyo K) opyzGpF 2CzFtGtIp ClEG5 zq K- MpwzJ Gsp Glmwp+ pFGtxlGzEF
lEp FszJy mA mEzvpy Epo wtypF- jsp ?4◦ wtyp ty rElA FszJF Gsp HyEpFGEtnGpo pFGtxlGp
qzE EpqpEpynp-
PFGtxlGzE QzExHwl
MpFG FHmFpG ’FtBp X ( β—H ± T’Kβ—H K ≥ Kβ—WX ( K(

htorp β—H .’% ) λ(
lFFz Ftry’β—H (’Kβ—H K } λ()
MCgR iSmgCR htorC lggB
Kβ1bc ( K
(0,0) (0,0) (0,0)
β1 ^
β
. β1 ^
β
.
β0 β0
QTRIFD 2W00W PFGtxlGtzy CtnGHEp qzE Gsp wlFFz ’wpqG( lyo Etorp EprEpFFtzy
’EtrsG(- iszJy lEp nzyGzHEF zq Gsp pEEzE lyo nzyFGEltyG qHynGtzyF- jsp Fzwto mwHp
lEplF lEp Gsp nzyFGEltyG EprtzyF Vβ0 V ) Vβ= V ≤ R lyo β0= ) β== ≤ R= + EpFCpnGtIpwA+
Jstwp Gsp Epo pwwtCFpF lEp Gsp nzyGzHEF zq Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF pEEzE qHynGtzy-
fi= “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
Eprtzy qzE Etorp EprEpFFtzy tF Gsp otFv β0= ) β== ≤ G+ Jstwp GslG qzE wlFFz tF
Gsp otlxzyo Kβ0 K ) Kβ= K ≤ G- MzGs xpGszoF ÿo Gsp ËFG CztyG JspEp Gsp
pwwtCGtnlw nzyGzHEF stG Gsp nzyFGEltyG Eprtzy- kywtvp Gsp otFv+ Gsp otlxzyo
slF nzEypEF: tq Gsp FzwHGtzy znnHEF lG l nzEypE+ Gspy tG slF zyp ClElxpGpE
βH pDHlw Gz BpEz- bspy C / =+ Gsp otlxzyo mpnzxpF l Eszxmzto+ lyo slF
xlyA nzEypEF+ 7lG porpF lyo qlnpF: GspEp lEp xlyA xzEp zCCzEGHytGtpF qzE
Gsp pFGtxlGpo ClElxpGpEF Gz mp BpEz-
bp nly rpypElwtBp Etorp EprEpFFtzy lyo Gsp wlFFz+ lyo ItpJ Gspx lF MlApF
pFGtxlGpF- NzyFtopE Gsp nEtGpEtzy
"Y C C
/
∑$ ∑ %= ∑
2
β ˆ lErxty At } β$ } KtH βH ) λ KβH KD
’“-4“(
β tˆ0 Hˆ0 Hˆ0
(
qzE D ≥ $- jsp nzyGzHEF zq nzyFGlyG IlwHp zq H KβH KD lEp FszJy ty Qtr!
HEp “-%=+ qzE Gsp nlFp zq GJz tyCHGF-
jstyvtyr zq KβH KD lF Gsp wzr!CEtzE opyFtGA qzE βH + GspFp lEp lwFz Gsp pDHt!
nzyGzHEF zq Gsp CEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp ClElxpGpEF- jsp IlwHp D ˆ $ nzEEp!
FCzyoF Gz IlEtlmwp FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy+ lF Gsp CpylwGA FtxCwA nzHyGF Gsp yHxmpE
zq yzyBpEz ClElxpGpEF: D ˆ % nzEEpFCzyoF Gz Gsp wlFFz+ Jstwp D ˆ = Gz Etorp
EprEpFFtzy- YzGtnp GslG qzE D ≤ %+ Gsp CEtzE tF yzG HytqzEx ty otEpnGtzy+ mHG
nzynpyGElGpF xzEp xlFF ty Gsp nzzEotylGp otEpnGtzyF- jsp CEtzE nzEEpFCzyo!
tyr Gz Gsp D ˆ % nlFp tF ly tyopCpyopyG ozHmwp pKCzypyGtlw ’zE lCwlnp(
otFGEtmHGtzy qzE plns tyCHG+ JtGs opyFtGA ’%.=τ ( pKC’}KβK.τ ( lyo τ ˆ %.λ-
jsp nlFp D ˆ % ’wlFFz( tF Gsp FxlwwpFG D FHns GslG Gsp nzyFGEltyG Eprtzy
tF nzyIpK: yzy!nzyIpK nzyFGEltyG EprtzyF xlvp Gsp zCGtxtBlGtzy CEzmwpx
xzEp otffnHwG-
Ty GstF ItpJ+ Gsp wlFFz+ Etorp EprEpFFtzy lyo mpFG FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy lEp
MlApF pFGtxlGpF JtGs otΓpEpyG CEtzEF- YzGp+ szJpIpE+ GslG GspA lEp opEtIpo
lF CzFGpEtzE xzopF+ GslG tF+ xlKtxtBpEF zq Gsp CzFGpEtzE- TG tF xzEp nzxxzy
Gz HFp Gsp xply zq Gsp CzFGpEtzE lF Gsp MlApF pFGtxlGp- htorp EprEpFFtzy tF
lwFz Gsp CzFGpEtzE xply+ mHG Gsp wlFFz lyo mpFG FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy lEp yzG-
zzvtyr lrlty lG Gsp nEtGpEtzy ’“-4“(+ Jp xtrsG GEA HFtyr zGspE IlwHpF
zq D mpFtopF $+ %+ zE =- LwGszHrs zyp xtrsG nzyFtopE pFGtxlGtyr D qEzx
Gsp olGl+ zHE pKCpEtpynp tF GslG tG tF yzG JzEGs Gsp pΓzEG qzE Gsp pKGEl
IlEtlynp tynHEEpo- alwHpF zq D ∈ ’%W =( FHrrpFG l nzxCEzxtFp mpGJppy Gsp
wlFFz lyo Etorp EprEpFFtzy- LwGszHrs GstF tF Gsp nlFp+ JtGs D / %+ KβH KD tF
otΓpEpyGtlmwp lG $+ lyo Fz ozpF yzG FslEp Gsp lmtwtGA zq wlFFz ’D ˆ %( qzE
Dˆ3 Dˆ= Dˆ0 D ˆ $,4 D ˆ $,0
Vβu Ve qzE rtIpy IlwHpF zq Z-

C
QTRIFD 2W01W NzyGzHEF zq nzyFGlyG IlwHp zq u
“-? isEtyvlrp cpGszoF fi“
D ˆ 0,= α ˆ $,=
e fklgRtn dCR
QTRIFD 2W02W NzyGzHEF zq nzyFGlyG IlwHp zq u Vβu Ve qzE Z ˆ %,= ’wpqG CwzG(+
C
lyo Gsp pwlFGtn,ypG CpylwGA u ’αβu= )’%}α(Vβu V( qzE α ˆ /,= ’EtrsG CwzG(- LwGszHrs
C
ItFHlwwA IpEA FtxtwlE+ Gsp pwlFGtn,ypG slF FslEC ’yzy,ot;pEpyGtlmwp( nzEypEF+ Jstwp
Gsp Z ˆ %,= CpylwGA ozpF yzG-
FpGGtyr nzpffntpyGF pKlnGwA Gz BpEz- flEGwA qzE GstF EplFzy lF Jpww lF qzE
nzxCHGlGtzylw GElnGlmtwtGA+ ezH lyo SlFGtp ’=$$4( tyGEzoHnpo Gsp pwlFGtn,
ypG CpylwGA
∑ C
$ = %
λ αβH ) ’% } α(KβH K W ’“-4?(
Hˆ0
l otΓpEpyG nzxCEzxtFp mpGJppy Etorp lyo wlFFz- QtrHEp “-%“ nzxClEpF Gsp
D CpylwGA JtGs D ˆ %,= lyo Gsp pwlFGtn!ypG CpylwGA JtGs α ˆ $,=: tG tF
slEo Gz opGpnG Gsp otΓpEpynp mA pAp- jsp pwlFGtn!ypG FpwpnGF IlEtlmwpF wtvp
Gsp wlFFz+ lyo FsEtyvF GzrpGspE Gsp nzpffntpyGF zq nzEEpwlGpo CEpotnGzEF wtvp
Etorp- TG lwFz slF nzyFtopElmwp nzxCHGlGtzylw loIlyGlrpF zIpE Gsp D Cpylw!
GtpF- bp otFnHFF Gsp pwlFGtn!ypG qHEGspE ty ipnGtzy %]-?-
“-?-? plFG Lyrwp hprEpFFtzy

plFG lyrwp EprEpFFtzy ’ Lh( tF l EpwlGtIp ypJnzxpE ’PqEzy pG lw-+ =$$?(+
lyo nly mp ItpJpo lF l vtyo zq õpxznElGtn˙ IpEFtzy zq qzEJlEo FGpCJtFp
EprEpFFtzy ’ipnGtzy “-“-=(- LF Jp Jtww Fpp+ Lh tF tyGtxlGpwA nzyypnGpo
JtGs Gsp wlFFz+ lyo ty qlnG CEzItopF ly pKGEpxpwA pffntpyG lwrzEtGsx qzE
nzxCHGtyr Gsp pyGtEp wlFFz ClGs lF ty QtrHEp “-%$-
QzEJlEo FGpCJtFp EprEpFFtzy mHtwoF l xzopw FpDHpyGtlwwA+ lootyr zyp IlEt!
lmwp lG l Gtxp- LG plns FGpC+ tG topyGt¨pF Gsp mpFG IlEtlmwp Gz tynwHop ty Gsp
lnGtIp FpG+ lyo Gspy HColGpF Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF ¨G Gz tynwHop lww Gsp lnGtIp
IlEtlmwpF-
plFG lyrwp EprEpFFtzy HFpF l FtxtwlE FGElGprA+ mHG zywA pyGpEF ˜lF xHns˙
zq l CEpotnGzE lF tG opFpEIpF- LG Gsp ËFG FGpC tG topyGt¨pF Gsp IlEtlmwp
xzFG nzEEpwlGpo JtGs Gsp EpFCzyFp- hlGspE Gsly ¨G GstF IlEtlmwp nzxCwpGpwA+
Lh xzIpF Gsp nzpffntpyG zq GstF IlEtlmwp nzyGtyHzHFwA GzJlEo tGF wplFG!
FDHlEpF IlwHp ’nlHFtyr tGF nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp pIzwItyr EpFtoHlw Gz opnEplFp
ty lmFzwHGp IlwHp(- LF Fzzy lF lyzGspE IlEtlmwp ñlGnspF HC˙ ty GpExF zq
nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp EpFtoHlw+ Gsp CEznpFF tF ClHFpo- jsp Fpnzyo IlEtlmwp
Gspy uztyF Gsp lnGtIp FpG+ lyo GsptE nzpffntpyGF lEp xzIpo GzrpGspE ty l JlA
GslG vppCF GsptE nzEEpwlGtzyF Gtpo lyo opnEplFtyr- jstF CEznpFF tF nzyGtyHpo
fi? “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
HyGtw lww Gsp IlEtlmwpF lEp ty Gsp xzopw+ lyo pyoF lG Gsp qHww wplFG!FDHlEpF
¨G- LwrzEtGsx “-= CEzItopF Gsp opGltwF- jsp GpExtylGtzy nzyotGtzy ty FGpC 4
EpDHtEpF Fzxp pKCwlylGtzy- Tq C / Y } %+ Gsp Lh lwrzEtGsx EplnspF l BpEz
EpFtoHlw FzwHGtzy lqGpE Y } % FGpCF ’Gsp }% tF mpnlHFp Jp slIp npyGpEpo Gsp
olGl(-
LwrzEtGsx 2-ˆ plFG Lyrwp hprEpFFtzy-

%- iGlyolEotBp Gsp CEpotnGzEF Gz slIp xply BpEz lyo HytG yzEx- iGlEG
JtGs Gsp EpFtoHlw E ˆ A } A
3 + β0 W β= W , , , W βC ˆ $-
=- Qtyo Gsp CEpotnGzE KH xzFG nzEEpwlGpo JtGs E-
“- XzIp βH qEzx $ GzJlEoF tGF wplFG!FDHlEpF nzpffntpyG 〈KH W E〉+ HyGtw Fzxp
zGspE nzxCpGtGzE Kv slF lF xHns nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp nHEEpyG EpFtoHlw
lF ozpF KH -
?- XzIp βH lyo βv ty Gsp otEpnGtzy opÿpo mA GsptE uztyG wplFG FDHlEpF

nzpffntpyG zq Gsp nHEEpyG EpFtoHlw zy ’KH W Kv (+ HyGtw Fzxp zGspE nzx!
CpGtGzE Kw slF lF xHns nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp nHEEpyG EpFtoHlw-
4- NzyGtyHp ty GstF JlA HyGtw lww C CEpotnGzEF slIp mppy pyGpEpo- LqGpE
xty’Y } %W C( FGpCF+ Jp lEEtIp lG Gsp qHww wplFG!FDHlEpF FzwHGtzy-
iHCCzFp Lv tF Gsp lnGtIp FpG zq IlEtlmwpF lG Gsp mprtyytyr zq Gsp vGs

FGpC+ lyo wpG β v mp Gsp nzpffntpyG IpnGzE qzE GspFp IlEtlmwpF lG GstF FGpC:
GspEp Jtww mp v } % yzyBpEz IlwHpF+ lyo Gsp zyp uHFG pyGpEpo Jtww mp BpEz- Tq
Ev ˆ A } c v β v tF Gsp nHEEpyG EpFtoHlw+ Gspy Gsp otEpnGtzy qzE GstF FGpC tF
δv ˆ ’cj v c v
(}0 cj v Ev , ’“-44(
jsp nzpffntpyG CEz¨wp Gspy pIzwIpF lF β v ’α( ˆ β v ) α ± δv - PKpEntFp “-=“
IpEt¨pF GslG Gsp otEpnGtzyF nszFpy ty GstF qlFstzy oz JslG tF nwltxpo9 vppC
Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF Gtpo lyo opnEplFtyr- Tq Gsp ¨G IpnGzE lG Gsp mprtyytyr zq
GstF FGpC tF —Dv + Gspy tG pIzwIpF lF —Dv ’α( ˆ —Dv ) α ± Hv + JspEp Hv ˆ c v δv
tF Gsp ypJ ¨G otEpnGtzy- jsp ylxp ˜wplFG lyrwp˙ lEtFpF qEzx l rpzxpGEtnlw
tyGpECEpGlGtzy zq GstF CEznpFF: Hv xlvpF Gsp FxlwwpFG ’lyo pDHlw( lyrwp
JtGs plns zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF ty Lv ’PKpEntFp “-=?(- QtrHEp “-%? FszJF Gsp
lmFzwHGp nzEEpwlGtzyF opnEplFtyr lyo uztytyr ElyvF JtGs plns FGpC zq Gsp
Lh lwrzEtGsx+ HFtyr FtxHwlGpo olGl-
MA nzyFGEHnGtzy Gsp nzpffntpyGF ty Lh nslyrp ty l CtpnpJtFp wtyplE qlFs!
tzy- QtrHEp “-%4 ”wpqG Clypwfl FszJF Gsp Lh nzpffntpyG CEz¨wp pIzwItyr lF l
qHynGtzy zq GsptE 0 lEn wpyrGs = - YzGp GslG Jp oz yzG yppo Gz Glvp Fxlww
= jsp
0 lEn!wpyrGs zq l ot;pEpyGtlmwp nHEIp >’g( qzE g ∈ ”/W ifl tF rtIpy mA ja’>W i( ˆ
i 5 5
+ >’g( 0 XgW JspEp >’g( ˆ ∂>’g(.∂g- gzE Gsp CtpnpJtFp!wtyplE Lh nzpffntpyG CEz¨wp)
GstF lxzHyGF Gz FHxxtyr Gsp 0 yzExF zq Gsp nslyrpF ty nzpffntpyGF qEzx FGpC Gz FGpC-
“-? isEtyvlrp cpGszoF fi4
v2 v6 v4 v5 v3 v1
0.4
LmgBkSRC NBEECklRtBAg
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0 5 10 15
0 LEn CArRs
QTRIFD 2W03W fEzrEpFFtzy zq Gsp lmFzwHGp nzEEpwlGtzyF oHEtyr plns FGpC zq Gsp
Lh CEznpoHEp+ HFtyr l FtxHwlGpo olGl FpG JtGs FtK CEpotnGzEF- jsp wlmpwF lG Gsp
GzC zq Gsp CwzG tyotnlGp Jstns IlEtlmwpF pyGpE Gsp lnGtIp FpG lG plns FGpC- jsp FGpC
wpyrGs lEp xplFHEpo ty HytGF zq 0 lEn wpyrGs-
Least Angle Regression Lasso

0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
NBC2ntCARg
NBC2ntCARg
−0.5
−0.5
−1.0
−1.0
−1.5
−1.5
0 5 10 15 0 5 10 15
0 LEn CArRs 0 LEn CArRs
QTRIFD 2W04W pqG Clypw FszJF Gsp Lh nzpffntpyG CEz6wpF zy Gsp FtxHwlGpo
olGl+ lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp 0 lEn wpyrGs- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp lFFz CEz6wp-
jspA lEp topyGtnlw HyGtw Gsp olEv,mwHp nzpffntpyG nEzFFpF BpEz lG ly lEn wpyrGs zq
lmzHG %]-
fi[ “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
FGpCF lyo Epnspnv Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF ty FGpC “: HFtyr vyzJwporp zq Gsp nzIlEt!
lynp zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF lyo Gsp CtpnpJtFp wtyplEtGA zq Gsp lwrzEtGsx+ Jp nly
JzEv zHG Gsp pKlnG FGpC wpyrGs lG Gsp mprtyytyr zq plns FGpC ’PKpEntFp “-=4(-
jsp EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp “-%4 FszJF Gsp wlFFz nzpffntpyG CEz¨wpF zy Gsp
Flxp olGl- jspA lEp lwxzFG topyGtnlw Gz GszFp ty Gsp wpqG Clypw+ lyo otΓpE
qzE Gsp ËFG Gtxp Jspy Gsp mwHp nzpffntpyG ClFFpF mlnv GsEzHrs BpEz- QzE Gsp
CEzFGlGp olGl+ Gsp Lh nzpffntpyG CEz¨wp GHEyF zHG Gz mp topyGtnlw Gz Gsp
wlFFz CEz¨wp ty QtrHEp “-%$+ Jstns ypIpE nEzFFpF BpEz- jspFp zmFpEIlGtzyF
wplo Gz l FtxCwp xzot¨nlGtzy zq Gsp Lh lwrzEtGsx GslG rtIpF Gsp pyGtEp
wlFFz ClGs+ Jstns tF lwFz CtpnpJtFp!wtyplE-
LwrzEtGsx 2-ˆl plFG Lyrwp hprEpFFtzy9 lFFz Xzot¨nlGtzy-
?l- Tq l yzy!BpEz nzpffntpyG stGF BpEz+ oEzC tGF IlEtlmwp qEzx Gsp lnGtIp FpG
zq IlEtlmwpF lyo EpnzxCHGp Gsp nHEEpyG uztyG wplFG FDHlEpF otEpnGtzy-
jsp Lh’wlFFz( lwrzEtGsx tF pKGEpxpwA pffntpyG+ EpDHtEtyr Gsp Flxp zEopE

zq nzxCHGlGtzy lF GslG zq l Ftyrwp wplFG FDHlEpF ¨G HFtyr Gsp C CEpotnGzEF-
plFG lyrwp EprEpFFtzy lwJlAF GlvpF C FGpCF Gz rpG Gz Gsp qHww wplFG FDHlEpF
pFGtxlGpF- jsp wlFFz ClGs nly slIp xzEp Gsly C FGpCF+ lwGszHrs Gsp GJz
lEp zqGpy DHtGp FtxtwlE- LwrzEtGsx “-= JtGs Gsp wlFFz xzot¨nlGtzy “-=l tF
ly pffntpyG JlA zq nzxCHGtyr Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz lyA wlFFz CEzmwpx+ pFCpntlwwA
Jspy C ≫ Y - ZFmzEyp pG lw- ’=$$$l( lwFz otFnzIpEpo l CtpnpJtFp!wtyplE ClGs
qzE nzxCHGtyr Gsp wlFFz+ Jstns GspA nlwwpo l szxzGzCA lwrzEtGsx-
bp yzJ rtIp l spHEtFGtn lErHxpyG qzE JsA GspFp CEznpoHEpF lEp Fz FtxtwlE-
LwGszHrs Gsp Lh lwrzEtGsx tF FGlGpo ty GpExF zq nzEEpwlGtzyF+ tq Gsp tyCHG
qplGHEpF lEp FGlyolEotBpo+ tG tF pDHtIlwpyG lyo plFtpE Gz JzEv JtGs tyypE!
CEzoHnGF- iHCCzFp L tF Gsp lnGtIp FpG zq IlEtlmwpF lG Fzxp FGlrp ty Gsp
lwrzEtGsx+ Gtpo ty GsptE lmFzwHGp tyypE!CEzoHnG JtGs Gsp nHEEpyG EpFtoHlwF
A } cβ- bp nly pKCEpFF GstF lF
KjH ’A } cβ( ˆ γ ± FH W {u ∈ L ’“-4[(
JspEp FH ∈ ·}%W %• tyotnlGpF Gsp Ftry zq Gsp tyypE!CEzoHnG+ lyo γ tF Gsp

nzxxzy IlwHp- LwFz KKjv ’A } cβ(K ≤ γ {v 0∈ L- YzJ nzyFtopE Gsp wlFFz
nEtGpEtzy ’“-4=(+ Jstns Jp JEtGp ty IpnGzE qzEx
h’β( ˆ =0 KKA } cβKK== ) λKKβKK0 , ’“-4fi(
pG M mp Gsp lnGtIp FpG zq IlEtlmwpF ty Gsp FzwHGtzy qzE l rtIpy IlwHp zq λ-

QzE GspFp IlEtlmwpF h’β( tF otΓpEpyGtlmwp+ lyo Gsp FGlGtzylEtGA nzyotGtzyF
rtIp
KjH ’A } cβ( ˆ λ ± Ftry’βH (W {u ∈ M ’“-4](
NzxClEtyr ’“-4]( JtGs ’“-4[(+ Jp Fpp GslG GspA lEp topyGtnlw zywA tq Gsp
Ftry zq βH xlGnspF Gsp Ftry zq Gsp tyypE CEzoHnG- jslG tF JsA Gsp Lh
“-? isEtyvlrp cpGszoF fifi
lwrzEtGsx lyo wlFFz FGlEG Gz otΓpE Jspy ly lnGtIp nzpffntpyG ClFFpF GsEzHrs
BpEz: nzyotGtzy ’“-4]( tF ItzwlGpo qzE GslG IlEtlmwp+ lyo tG tF vtnvpo zHG zq Gsp
lnGtIp FpG M- PKpEntFp “-=“ FszJF GslG GspFp pDHlGtzyF txCwA l CtpnpJtFp!
wtyplE nzpffntpyG CEz¨wp lF λ opnEplFpF- jsp FGlGtzylEtGA nzyotGtzyF qzE Gsp
yzy!lnGtIp IlEtlmwpF EpDHtEp GslG
KKjv ’A } cβ(K ≤ λW {v 0∈ MW ’“-4–(
Jstns lrlty lrEppF JtGs Gsp Lh lwrzEtGsx-

QtrHEp “-%[ nzxClEpF Lh lyo wlFFz Gz qzEJlEo FGpCJtFp lyo FGlrpJtFp
EprEpFFtzy- jsp FpGHC tF Gsp Flxp lF ty QtrHEp “-[ zy Clrp 4–+ pKnpCG spEp
Y ˆ %$$ spEp ElGspE Gsly “$$+ Fz Gsp CEzmwpx tF xzEp otffnHwG- bp Fpp
GslG Gsp xzEp lrrEpFFtIp qzEJlEo FGpCJtFp FGlEGF Gz zIpE¨G DHtGp plEwA ’Jpww
mpqzEp Gsp %$ GEHp IlEtlmwpF nly pyGpE Gsp xzopw(+ lyo HwGtxlGpwA CpEqzExF
JzEFp Gsly Gsp FwzJpE qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp EprEpFFtzy- jsp mpslItzE zq Lh
lyo wlFFz tF FtxtwlE Gz GslG zq qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp EprEpFFtzy- TynEpxpyGlw
qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp tF FtxtwlE Gz Lh lyo wlFFz+ lyo tF opFnEtmpo ty ipn!
Gtzy “-]-%-
OprEppF!zq!QEppozx QzExHwl qzE Lh lyo lFFz

iHCCzFp GslG Jp ¨G l wtyplE xzopw Itl Gsp wplFG lyrwp EprEpFFtzy CEznpoHEp+
FGzCCtyr lG Fzxp yHxmpE zq FGpCF v ı C+ zE pDHtIlwpyGwA HFtyr l wlFFz mzHyo
G GslG CEzoHnpF l nzyFGEltypo IpEFtzy zq Gsp qHww wplFG FDHlEpF ¨G- SzJ xlyA
ClElxpGpEF+ zE õprEppF zq qEppozx˙ slIp Jp HFpo¯
NzyFtopE ËFG l wtyplE EprEpFFtzy HFtyr l FHmFpG zq v qplGHEpF- Tq GstF FHmFpG
tF CEpFCpnt¨po ty loIlynp JtGszHG EpqpEpynp Gz Gsp GEltytyr olGl+ Gspy Gsp
oprEppF zq qEppozx HFpo ty Gsp ¨GGpo xzopw tF opÿpo Gz mp v- Tyoppo+ ty
nwlFFtnlw FGlGtFGtnF+ Gsp yHxmpE zq wtyplEwA tyopCpyopyG ClElxpGpEF tF JslG
tF xplyG mA õprEppF zq qEppozx-˙ LwGpEylGtIpwA+ FHCCzFp GslG Jp nlEEA zHG
l mpFG FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy Gz opGpExtyp Gsp ˜zCGtxlw˙ FpG zq v CEpotnGzEF- jspy
Gsp EpFHwGtyr xzopw slF v ClElxpGpEF+ mHG ty Fzxp FpyFp Jp slIp HFpo HC
xzEp Gsly v oprEppF zq qEppozx-
bp yppo l xzEp rpypElw opÿtGtzy qzE Gsp pΓpnGtIp oprEppF zq qEppozx zq
ly lolCGtIpwA ¨GGpo xzopw- bp opÿp Gsp oprEppF zq qEppozx zq Gsp ¨GGpo
IpnGzE A— ˆ ’—A0 W A—= W , , , W A—Y ( lF
Y
% ∑
oq’—
A( ˆ NzI’—
At W At (, ’“-[$(
σ = tˆ0
SpEp NzI’— At W At ( EpqpEF Gz Gsp FlxCwtyr nzIlEtlynp mpGJppy Gsp CEpotnGpo

IlwHp A—t lyo tGF nzEEpFCzyotyr zHGnzxp IlwHp At - jstF xlvpF tyGHtGtIp FpyFp9
Gsp slEopE GslG Jp ¨G Gz Gsp olGl+ Gsp wlErpE GstF nzIlEtlynp lyo spynp
oq’—
A(- PKCEpFFtzy ’“-[$( tF l HFpqHw yzGtzy zq oprEppF zq qEppozx+ zyp GslG
nly mp lCCwtpo Gz lyA xzopw CEpotnGtzy A — - jstF tynwHopF xzopwF GslG lEp
fi] “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
Forward Stepwise
LAR
Lasso
Forward Stagewise
0.65
Incremental Forward Stagewise

PVVβ’v( } βVV=
0.60
1
0.55
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
gElnGtzy zD 0 lEnbICyrGs
QTRIFD 2W05W NzxClEtFzy zq Lh lyo wlFFz JtGs qzEJlEo FGpCJtFp+ qzEJlEo

FGlrpJtFp ’Qi( lyo tynEpxpyGlw qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp ’Qi+ ( EprEpFFtzy- jsp FpGHC
tF Gsp Flxp lF ty QtrHEp “-”+ pKnpCG Y ˆ %// spEp ElGspE Gsly “//- SpEp Gsp
FwzJpE Qi EprEpFFtzy HwGtxlGpwA zHGCpEqzExF qzEJlEo FGpCJtFp- Lh lyo wlFFz
FszJ FtxtwlE mpslItzE Gz Qi lyo Qi+ - itynp Gsp CEznpoHEpF Glvp ot;pEpyG yHxmpEF
zq FGpCF ’lnEzFF FtxHwlGtzy EpCwtnlGpF lyo xpGszoF(+ Jp CwzG Gsp ciP lF l qHynGtzy
zq Gsp qElnGtzy zq GzGlw 0 lEn,wpyrGs GzJlEo Gsp wplFG,FDHlEpF 6G-
lolCGtIpwA ¨GGpo Gz Gsp GEltytyr olGl- jstF opÿtGtzy tF xzGtIlGpo lyo

otFnHFFpo qHEGspE ty ipnGtzyF fi-?8fi-[-
YzJ qzE l wtyplE EprEpFFtzy JtGs v ¨Kpo CEpotnGzEF+ tG tF plFA Gz FszJ
GslG oq’—A( ˆ v- tvpJtFp qzE Etorp EprEpFFtzy+ GstF opÿtGtzy wploF Gz Gsp
nwzFpo!qzEx pKCEpFFtzy ’“-4$( zy Clrp []9 oq’— A( ˆ GE’iλ (- Ty mzGs GspFp
nlFpF+ ’“-[$( tF FtxCwp Gz pIlwHlGp mpnlHFp Gsp ¨G A — ˆ Sλ A tF wtyplE ty A-
Tq Jp Gstyv lmzHG opÿtGtzy ’“-[$( ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq l mpFG FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy
zq FtBp v+ tG FppxF nwplE GslG oq’— A( Jtww mp wlErpE Gsly v+ lyo GstF nly mp
IpEt¨po mA pFGtxlGtyr NzI’— At W At (.σ = otEpnGwA mA FtxHwlGtzy- SzJpIpE GspEp
tF yz nwzFpo qzEx xpGszo qzE pFGtxlGtyr oq’— A( qzE mpFG FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy-
QzE Lh lyo wlFFz+ FzxpGstyr xlrtnlw slCCpyF- jspFp GpnsytDHpF lEp
lolCGtIp ty l FxzzGspE JlA Gsly mpFG FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy+ lyo spynp pFGtxlGtzy
zq oprEppF zq qEppozx tF xzEp GElnGlmwp- iCpnt¨nlwwA tG nly mp FszJy GslG
lqGpE Gsp vGs FGpC zq Gsp Lh CEznpoHEp+ Gsp pΓpnGtIp oprEppF zq qEppozx zq
Gsp ¨G IpnGzE tF pKlnGwA v- YzJ qzE Gsp wlFFz+ Gsp ’xzot¨po( Lh CEznpoHEp
“-4 cpGszoF kFtyr OpEtIpo TyCHG OtEpnGtzyF fi–
zqGpy GlvpF xzEp Gsly C FGpCF+ Ftynp CEpotnGzEF nly oEzC zHG- Spynp Gsp
opÿtGtzy tF l wtGGwp otΓpEpyG: qzE Gsp wlFFz+ lG lyA FGlrp oq’—
A( lCCEzKtxlGpwA
pDHlwF Gsp yHxmpE zq CEpotnGzEF ty Gsp xzopw- bstwp GstF lCCEzKtxlGtzy
JzEvF EplFzylmwA Jpww lyAJspEp ty Gsp wlFFz ClGs+ qzE plns v tG JzEvF mpFG
lG Gsp wlFG xzopw ty Gsp FpDHpynp GslG nzyGltyF v CEpotnGzEF- L opGltwpo
FGHoA zq Gsp oprEppF zq qEppozx qzE Gsp wlFFz xlA mp qzHyo ty ezH pG lw-
’=$$fi(-
“-4 cpGszoF kFtyr OpEtIpo TyCHG OtEpnGtzyF

Ty xlyA FtGHlGtzyF Jp slIp l wlErp yHxmpE zq tyCHGF+ zqGpy IpEA nzEEpwlGpo-
jsp xpGszoF ty GstF FpnGtzy CEzoHnp l Fxlww yHxmpE zq wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF
ex W x ˆ %W , , , W X zq Gsp zEtrtylw tyCHGF cH + lyo Gsp ex lEp Gspy HFpo ty
Cwlnp zq Gsp cH lF tyCHGF ty Gsp EprEpFFtzy- jsp xpGszoF otΓpE ty szJ Gsp
wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF lEp nzyFGEHnGpo-
“-4-0 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF hprEpFFtzy

Ty GstF lCCEzlns Gsp wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF ex HFpo lEp Gsp CEtyntClw nzx!
CzypyGF lF opÿpo ty ipnGtzy “-?-% lmzIp-
fEtyntClw nzxCzypyG EprEpFFtzy qzExF Gsp opEtIpo tyCHG nzwHxyF Bx ˆ
cIx + lyo Gspy EprEpFFpF A zy B0 W B= W , , , W BX qzE Fzxp X ≤ C- itynp Gsp Bx
lEp zEGszrzylw+ GstF EprEpFFtzy tF uHFG l FHx zq HytIlEtlGp EprEpFFtzyF9
X
∑
A CnE
— WX ( Â
30 ) θ—x Bx W ’“-[%(
xˆ0
JspEp θ—x ˆ 〈Bx W A〉.〈Bx W Bx 〉- itynp Gsp Bx lEp plns wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF
zq Gsp zEtrtylw KH + Jp nly pKCEpFF Gsp FzwHGtzy ’“-[%( ty GpExF zq nzpffntpyGF
zq Gsp KH ’PKpEntFp “-%“(9
X
∑
β—CnE ’X ( ˆ θ—x Ix , ’“-[=(
xˆ0
LF JtGs Etorp EprEpFFtzy+ CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF opCpyo zy Gsp Fnlwtyr zq

Gsp tyCHGF+ Fz GACtnlwwA Jp ËFG FGlyolEotBp Gspx- YzGp GslG tq X ˆ C+ Jp
JzHwo uHFG rpG mlnv Gsp HFHlw wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGpF+ Ftynp Gsp nzwHxyF zq
e ˆ kO FCly Gsp nzwHxy FClnp zq c- QzE X ı C Jp rpG l EpoHnpo EprEpF!
Ftzy- bp Fpp GslG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF EprEpFFtzy tF IpEA FtxtwlE Gz Etorp
EprEpFFtzy9 mzGs zCpElGp Itl Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF zq Gsp tyCHG xl!
GEtK- htorp EprEpFFtzy FsEtyvF Gsp nzpffntpyGF zq Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF
’QtrHEp “-%fi(+ FsEtyvtyr xzEp opCpyotyr zy Gsp FtBp zq Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr
ptrpyIlwHp: CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF EprEpFFtzy otFnlEoF Gsp C } X FxlwwpFG
ptrpyIlwHp nzxCzypyGF- QtrHEp “-%fi twwHFGElGpF GstF-
]/ “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
1.0
• • • • • • •
•
0.8
•
Shrinkage Factor
•
0.6
•
• •
0.4
ridge
pcr
•
0.2
0.0 •
• •
2 4 6 8
Index
QTRIFD 2W06W htorp EprEpFFtzy FsEtyvF Gsp EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyGF zq Gsp CEty,
ntClw nzxCzypyGF+ HFtyr FsEtyvlrp qlnGzEF z=u .’z=u ) λ( lF ty ’“-3fi(- fEtyntClw
nzxCzypyG EprEpFFtzy GEHynlGpF Gspx- iszJy lEp Gsp FsEtyvlrp lyo GEHynlGtzy
ClGGpEyF nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz QtrHEp “-fi+ lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG
tyopK-
Ty QtrHEp “-fi Jp Fpp GslG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy FHrrpFGF FpIpy GpExF: Gsp Ep!
FHwGtyr xzopw slF Gsp wzJpFG GpFG pEEzE ty jlmwp “-“-
“-4-1 flEGtlw plFG iDHlEpF

jstF GpnsytDHp lwFz nzyFGEHnGF l FpG zq wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF zq Gsp tyCHGF
qzE EprEpFFtzy+ mHG Hywtvp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF EprEpFFtzy tG HFpF A ’ty lo!
otGtzy Gz c( qzE GstF nzyFGEHnGtzy- tvp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG EprEpFFtzy+
ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF ’f i( tF yzG Fnlwp tyIlEtlyG+ Fz Jp lFFHxp GslG plns
KH tF FGlyolEotBpo Gz slIp xply $ lyo IlEtlynp %- f i mprtyF mA nzx!
CHGtyr( ϕ—0H ˆ 〈KH W A〉 qzE plns u- QEzx GstF Jp nzyFGEHnG Gsp opEtIpo tyCHG
B0 ˆ Hϕ—0H KH + Jstns tF Gsp ËFG ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF otEpnGtzy- Spynp
ty Gsp nzyFGEHnGtzy zq plns Bx + Gsp tyCHGF lEp JptrsGpo mA Gsp FGEpyrGs
zq GsptE HytIlEtlGp pΓpnG zy A˜ - jsp zHGnzxp A tF EprEpFFpo zy B0 rtItyr
nzpffntpyG θ—0 + lyo Gspy Jp zEGszrzylwtBp K0 W , , , W KC JtGs EpFCpnG Gz B0 - bp
nzyGtyHp GstF CEznpFF+ HyGtw X ≤ C otEpnGtzyF slIp mppy zmGltypo- Ty GstF
xlyypE+ ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF CEzoHnpF l FpDHpynp zq opEtIpo+ zEGszrzylw
tyCHGF zE otEpnGtzyF B0 W B= W , , , W BX - LF JtGs CEtyntClw!nzxCzypyG EprEpF!
Ftzy+ tq Jp JpEp Gz nzyFGEHnG lww X ˆ C otEpnGtzyF+ Jp JzHwo rpG mlnv l
FzwHGtzy pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp HFHlw wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGpF: HFtyr X ı C ot!
EpnGtzyF CEzoHnpF l EpoHnpo EprEpFFtzy- jsp CEznpoHEp tF opFnEtmpo qHwwA ty
LwrzEtGsx “-“-
2 itynp Gsp
u lEp FGlyolEotBpo) Gsp ËFG otEpnGtzyF ϕ 10u lEp Gsp HytIlEtlGp EprEpFFtzy
nzpffntpyGF ’HC Gz ly tEEpwpIlyG nzyFGlyG(: GstF tF yzG Gsp nlFp qzE FHmFpDHpyG otEpnGtzyF-
“-4 cpGszoF kFtyr OpEtIpo TyCHG OtEpnGtzyF ]%
LwrzEtGsx 2-2 flEGtlw plFG iDHlEpF-

— W$( ˆ
%- iGlyolEotBp plns KH Gz slIp xply BpEz lyo IlEtlynp zyp- ipG A
W$(
A30+ lyo KH ˆ KH W u ˆ %W , , , W C-
=- QzE x ˆ %W =W , , , W C
(C Wx}0( Wx}0(
’l( Bx ˆ Hˆ0 ϕ—xH KH + JspEp ϕ—xH ˆ 〈KH W A〉-
’m( θ—x ˆ 〈Bx W A〉.〈Bx W Bx 〉-
’n( A — Wx}0( ) θ—x Bx -
— Wx( ˆ A
Wx}0( Wx( Wx}0(
’o( ZEGszrzylwtBp plns KH JtGs EpFCpnG Gz Bx 9 KH ˆ KH }
Wx}0(
”〈Bx W KH 〉.〈Bx W Bx 〉flBx + u ˆ %W =W , , , W C-
“- ZHGCHG Gsp FpDHpynp zq ¨GGpo IpnGzEF ·— AWx( •C0 - itynp Gsp ·Bℓ •x
0 lEp
—
wtyplE ty Gsp zEtrtylw KH + Fz tF A Wx( —CwF
ˆ cβ ’x(- jspFp wtyplE nzpff!
ntpyGF nly mp EpnzIpEpo qEzx Gsp FpDHpynp zq f i GElyFqzExlGtzyF-
Ty Gsp CEzFGlGp nlynpE pKlxCwp+ nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy nszFp X ˆ = f i otEpn!

GtzyF ty QtrHEp “-fi- jstF CEzoHnpo Gsp xzopw rtIpy ty Gsp EtrsGxzFG nzwHxy
zq jlmwp “-“-
bslG zCGtxtBlGtzy CEzmwpx tF ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF FzwItyr¯ itynp tG HFpF
Gsp EpFCzyFp A Gz nzyFGEHnG tGF otEpnGtzyF+ tGF FzwHGtzy ClGs tF l yzywtyplE
qHynGtzy zq A- TG nly mp FszJy ’PKpEntFp “-%4( GslG ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF
FppvF otEpnGtzyF GslG slIp strs IlEtlynp lyo slIp strs nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp
EpFCzyFp+ ty nzyGElFG Gz CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF EprEpFFtzy Jstns vpAF zywA
zy strs IlEtlynp ’iGzyp lyo MEzzvF+ %––$: QElyv lyo QEtpoxly+ %––“(- Ty
ClEGtnHwlE+ Gsp xGs CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG otEpnGtzy Ix FzwIpF9
xlKα alE’cα( ’“-[“(

FHmupnG Gz KKαKK ˆ %W αj iIℓ ˆ $W ℓ ˆ %W , , , W x } %W
JspEp i tF Gsp FlxCwp nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK zq Gsp KH - jsp nzyotGtzyF αj iIℓ ˆ

$ pyFHEpF GslG Bx ˆ cα tF HynzEEpwlGpo JtGs lww Gsp CEpItzHF wtyplE nzx!
mtylGtzyF Bℓ ˆ cIℓ - jsp xGs f i otEpnGtzy ϕ—x FzwIpF9
xlKα NzEE= ’AW cα(alE’cα( ’“-[?(

FHmupnG Gz KKαKK ˆ %W αj iϕ—ℓ ˆ $W ℓ ˆ %W , , , W x } %,
QHEGspE lylwAFtF EpIplwF GslG Gsp IlEtlynp lFCpnG GpyoF Gz ozxtylGp+ lyo
Fz ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF mpslIpF xHns wtvp Etorp EprEpFFtzy lyo CEtyntClw
nzxCzypyGF EprEpFFtzy- bp otFnHFF GstF qHEGspE ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy-
Tq Gsp tyCHG xlGEtK c tF zEGszrzylw+ Gspy ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF ÿoF Gsp
wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGpF lqGpE x ˆ % FGpCF- iHmFpDHpyG FGpCF slIp yz pΓpnG
]= “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
Ftynp Gsp ϕ—xH lEp BpEz qzE x / % ’PKpEntFp “-%?(- TG nly lwFz mp FszJy GslG
Gsp FpDHpynp zq f i nzpffntpyGF qzE x ˆ %W =W , , , W C EpCEpFpyGF Gsp nzyuHrlGp
rElotpyG FpDHpynp qzE nzxCHGtyr Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF FzwHGtzyF ’PKpEntFp “-%](-
“-” OtFnHFFtzy9 L NzxClEtFzy zq Gsp ipwpnGtzy lyo

isEtyvlrp cpGszoF
jspEp lEp Fzxp FtxCwp FpGGtyrF JspEp Jp nly HyopEFGlyo mpGGpE Gsp Epwl!
GtzyFstC mpGJppy Gsp otΓpEpyG xpGszoF opFnEtmpo lmzIp- NzyFtopE ly pKlx!
Cwp JtGs GJz nzEEpwlGpo tyCHGF c0 lyo c= + JtGs nzEEpwlGtzy ρ- bp lFFHxp
GslG Gsp GEHp EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyGF lEp β0 ˆ ? lyo β= ˆ =- QtrHEp “-%]
FszJF Gsp nzpffntpyG CEz¨wpF qzE Gsp otΓpEpyG xpGszoF+ lF GsptE GHytyr Cl!
ElxpGpEF lEp IlEtpo- jsp GzC Clypw slF ρ ˆ $,4+ Gsp mzGGzx Clypw ρ ˆ }$,4-
jsp GHytyr ClElxpGpEF qzE Etorp lyo wlFFz IlEA zIpE l nzyGtyHzHF Elyrp+
Jstwp mpFG FHmFpG+ f i lyo fNh Glvp uHFG GJz otFnEpGp FGpCF Gz Gsp wplFG
FDHlEpF FzwHGtzy- Ty Gsp GzC Clypw+ FGlEGtyr lG Gsp zEtrty+ Etorp EprEpFFtzy
FsEtyvF Gsp nzpffntpyGF GzrpGspE HyGtw tG ÿlwwA nzyIpErpF Gz wplFG FDHlEpF-
f i lyo fNh FszJ FtxtwlE mpslItzE Gz Etorp+ lwGszHrs lEp otFnEpGp lyo
xzEp pKGEpxp- MpFG FHmFpG zIpEFszzGF Gsp FzwHGtzy lyo Gspy mlnvGElnvF-
jsp mpslItzE zq Gsp wlFFz tF tyGpExpotlGp Gz Gsp zGspE xpGszoF- bspy Gsp
nzEEpwlGtzy tF yprlGtIp ’wzJpE Clypw(+ lrlty f i lyo fNh EzHrswA GElnv
Gsp Etorp ClGs+ Jstwp lww zq Gsp xpGszoF lEp xzEp FtxtwlE Gz zyp lyzGspE-
TG tF tyGpEpFGtyr Gz nzxClEp Gsp FsEtyvlrp mpslItzE zq GspFp otΓpEpyG
xpGszoF- hpnlww GslG Etorp EprEpFFtzy FsEtyvF lww otEpnGtzyF+ mHG FsEtyvF
wzJ!IlEtlynp otEpnGtzyF xzEp- fEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF EprEpFFtzy wplIpF X
strs!IlEtlynp otEpnGtzyF lwzyp+ lyo otFnlEoF Gsp EpFG- TyGpEpFGtyrwA+ tG nly
mp FszJy GslG ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF lwFz GpyoF Gz FsEtyv Gsp wzJ!IlEtlynp
otEpnGtzyF+ mHG nly lnGHlwwA ty7lGp Fzxp zq Gsp strspE IlEtlynp otEpnGtzyF-
jstF nly xlvp f i l wtGGwp HyFGlmwp+ lyo nlHFp tG Gz slIp FwtrsGwA strspE
CEpotnGtzy pEEzE nzxClEpo Gz Etorp EprEpFFtzy- L qHww FGHoA tF rtIpy ty QElyv
lyo QEtpoxly ’%––“(- jspFp lHGszEF nzynwHop GslG qzE xtytxtBtyr CEpotn!
Gtzy pEEzE+ Etorp EprEpFFtzy tF rpypElwwA CEpqpElmwp Gz IlEtlmwp FHmFpG Fpwpn!
Gtzy+ CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF EprEpFFtzy lyo ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF- SzJpIpE
Gsp txCEzIpxpyG zIpE Gsp wlGGpE GJz xpGszoF JlF zywA FwtrsG-
jz FHxxlEtBp+ f i+ fNh lyo Etorp EprEpFFtzy Gpyo Gz mpslIp FtxtwlEwA-
htorp EprEpFFtzy xlA mp CEpqpEEpo mpnlHFp tG FsEtyvF FxzzGswA+ ElGspE Gsly
ty otFnEpGp FGpCF- lFFz qlwwF FzxpJspEp mpGJppy Etorp EprEpFFtzy lyo mpFG
FHmFpG EprEpFFtzy+ lyo pyuzAF Fzxp zq Gsp CEzCpEGtpF zq plns-
“-[ OtFnHFFtzy9 L NzxClEtFzy zq Gsp ipwpnGtzy lyo isEtyvlrp cpGszoF ]“
ρ ˆ $,4
PCR PLS
Ridge
• Least Squares
2
Lasso
1
β=
Best Subset
0
0
-1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
β0
ρ ˆ }$,4
3
• Least Squares
2
Ridge
1
β=
Lasso Best Subset
0
0
PLS
-1
PCR
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
β0
QTRIFD 2W07W NzpffntpyG CEz6wpF qEzx ot;pEpyG xpGszoF qzE l FtxCwp CEzmwpx9
GJz tyCHGF JtGs nzEEpwlGtzy ±/,4+ lyo Gsp GEHp EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyGF β ˆ ’?W =(-
]? “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
“-fi cHwGtCwp ZHGnzxp isEtyvlrp lyo ipwpnGtzy

LF yzGpo ty ipnGtzy “-=-?+ Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGpF ty l xHwGtCwp!zHGCHG
wtyplE xzopw lEp FtxCwA Gsp tyotItoHlw wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGpF qzE plns zq
Gsp zHGCHGF-
jz lCCwA FpwpnGtzy lyo FsEtyvlrp xpGszoF ty Gsp xHwGtCwp zHGCHG nlFp+
zyp nzHwo lCCwA l HytIlEtlGp GpnsytDHp tyotItoHlwwA Gz plns zHGnzxp zE Ft!
xHwGlypzHFwA Gz lww zHGnzxpF- btGs Etorp EprEpFFtzy+ qzE pKlxCwp+ Jp nzHwo
lCCwA qzExHwl ’“-??( Gz plns zq Gsp V nzwHxyF zq Gsp zHGnzxp xlGEtK d +
HFtyr CzFFtmwA otΓpEpyG ClElxpGpEF λ+ zE lCCwA tG Gz lww nzwHxyF HFtyr Gsp
Flxp IlwHp zq λ- jsp qzExpE FGElGprA JzHwo lwwzJ otΓpEpyG lxzHyGF zq
EprHwlEtBlGtzy Gz mp lCCwtpo Gz otΓpEpyG zHGnzxpF mHG EpDHtEp pFGtxlGtzy
zq v FpClElGp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpEF λ0 W , , , W λv + Jstwp Gsp wlGGpE JzHwo
CpExtG lww v zHGCHGF Gz mp HFpo ty pFGtxlGtyr Gsp Fzwp EprHwlEtBlGtzy Cl!
ElxpGpE λ-
ZGspE xzEp FzCstFGtnlGpo FsEtyvlrp lyo FpwpnGtzy FGElGprtpF GslG pKCwztG
nzEEpwlGtzyF ty Gsp otΓpEpyG EpFCzyFpF nly mp spwCqHw ty Gsp xHwGtCwp zHGCHG
nlFp- iHCCzFp qzE pKlxCwp GslG lxzyr Gsp zHGCHGF Jp slIp
dv ˆ q ’c( ) εv ’“-[4(
dℓ ˆ q ’c( ) εℓ : ’“-[[(
t-p-+ ’“-[4( lyo ’“-[[( FslEp Gsp Flxp FGEHnGHElw ClEG q ’c( ty GsptE xzopwF-
TG tF nwplE ty GstF nlFp GslG Jp FszHwo Czzw zHE zmFpEIlGtzyF zy dv lyo dw
Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp nzxxzy q -
Nzxmtytyr EpFCzyFpF tF lG Gsp splEG zq nlyzytnlw nzEEpwlGtzy lylwAFtF
’NNL(+ l olGl EpoHnGtzy GpnsytDHp opIpwzCpo qzE Gsp xHwGtCwp zHGCHG nlFp-
itxtwlE Gz fNL+ NNL ÿoF l FpDHpynp zq HynzEEpwlGpo wtyplE nzxmtyl!
GtzyF cIx W x ˆ %W , , , W X zq Gsp KH + lyo l nzEEpFCzyotyr FpDHpynp zq
HynzEEpwlGpo wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF dHx zq Gsp EpFCzyFpF Av + FHns GslG Gsp
nzEEpwlGtzyF
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lEp FHnnpFFtIpwA xlKtxtBpo- YzGp GslG lG xzFG X ˆ xty’VW C( otEpnGtzyF

nly mp qzHyo- jsp wplotyr nlyzytnlw EpFCzyFp IlEtlGpF lEp GszFp wtyplE nzx!
mtylGtzyF ’opEtIpo EpFCzyFpF( mpFG CEpotnGpo mA Gsp KH : ty nzyGElFG+ Gsp
GEltwtyr nlyzytnlw IlEtlGpF nly mp CzzEwA CEpotnGpo mA Gsp KH + lyo lEp nly!
otolGpF qzE mptyr oEzCCpo- jsp NNL FzwHGtzy tF nzxCHGpo HFtyr l rpypElw!
tBpo iaO zq Gsp FlxCwp nEzFF!nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK dj c.Y ’lFFHxtyr d lyo
c lEp npyGpEpo: PKpEntFp “-=$(-
hpoHnpo,Elyv EprEpFFtzy ’TBpyxly+ %–fi4: Ily opE XpEJp lyo etopv+ %–]$(
qzExlwtBpF GstF lCCEzlns ty GpExF zq l EprEpFFtzy xzopw GslG pKCwtntGwA CzzwF
tyqzExlGtzy- RtIpy ly pEEzE nzIlEtlynp NzI’ε( ˆ :+ Jp FzwIp Gsp qzwwzJtyr
“-fi cHwGtCwp ZHGnzxp isEtyvlrp lyo ipwpnGtzy ]4
EpFGEtnGpo xHwGtIlEtlGp EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx9

Y
∑
— EE ’x( ˆ lErxty
M ’At } Mj Kt (j :}0 ’At } Mj Kt (, ’“-[](
ElyvWM(ˆx tˆ0
btGs : EpCwlnpo mA Gsp pFGtxlGp dj d.Y + zyp nly FszJ ’PKpEntFp “-=%(
GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy tF rtIpy mA l NNL zq d lyo c9
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M — x k} W ’“-[–(
x
JspEp kx tF Gsp V × x FHm!xlGEtK zq k nzyFtFGtyr zq Gsp ËFG x nzwHxyF+

lyo k tF Gsp V × X xlGEtK zq wpqG nlyzytnlw IpnGzEF H0 W H= W , , , W HX - k}
x
tF tGF rpypElwtBpo tyIpEFp- bEtGtyr Gsp FzwHGtzy lF
— EE ’X ( ˆ ’cj c(}0 cj ’dkx (k} W
M ’“-fi$(
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Jp Fpp GslG EpoHnpo!Elyv EprEpFFtzy CpEqzExF l wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zy Gsp

Czzwpo EpFCzyFp xlGEtK dkx + lyo Gspy xlCF Gsp nzpffntpyGF ’lyo spynp
Gsp ¨GF lF Jpww( mlnv Gz Gsp zEtrtylw EpFCzyFp FClnp- jsp EpoHnpo!Elyv ¨GF
lEp rtIpy mA
— EE ’x( ˆ c’cj c(}0 cj dkx k}
d x
’“-fi%(
ˆ Sdfx W
JspEp S tF Gsp HFHlw wtyplE EprEpFFtzy CEzupnGtzy zCpElGzE+ lyo fx tF Gsp
Elyv!x NNL EpFCzyFp CEzupnGtzy zCpElGzE- LwGszHrs l mpGGpE pFGtxlGp zq
: JzHwo mp ’d}cM( — j ’d}cM(.’Y
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EpxltyF Gsp Flxp ’PKpEntFp “-==(-
hpoHnpo!Elyv EprEpFFtzy mzEEzJF FGEpyrGs lxzyr EpFCzyFpF mA GEHynlG!
tyr Gsp NNL- MEptxly lyo QEtpoxly ’%––fi( pKCwzEpo JtGs Fzxp FHnnpFF
FsEtyvlrp zq Gsp nlyzytnlw IlEtlGpF mpGJppy c lyo d+ l FxzzGs IpEFtzy zq
EpoHnpo Elyv EprEpFFtzy- jsptE CEzCzFlw slF Gsp qzEx ’nzxClEp ’“-[–((
— n)k ˆ MkΛk
M — }0
W ’“-fi=(
JspEp Λ tF l otlrzylw FsEtyvlrp xlGEtK ’Gsp ñ)J˙ FGlyoF qzE ÑHEoF
lyo bspA+˙ Gsp ylxp GspA rlIp Gz GsptE CEznpoHEp(- MlFpo zy zCGtxlw
CEpotnGtzy ty Gsp CzCHwlGtzy FpGGtyr+ GspA FszJ GslG Λ slF otlrzylw pyGEtpF
n=x
λx ˆ C W x ˆ %W , , , W XW ’“-fi“(
n=x ) Y ’% } n=x (
JspEp nx tF Gsp xGs nlyzytnlw nzEEpwlGtzy nzpffntpyG- YzGp GslG lF Gsp ElGtz
zq Gsp yHxmpE zq tyCHG IlEtlmwpF Gz FlxCwp FtBp C.Y rpGF Fxlww+ Gsp FsEtyv!
lrp qlnGzEF lCCEzlns %- MEptxly lyo QEtpoxly ’%––fi( CEzCzFpo xzot¨po
IpEFtzyF zq Λ mlFpo zy GEltytyr olGl lyo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy+ mHG Gsp rpypElw
qzEx tF Gsp Flxp- SpEp Gsp ¨GGpo EpFCzyFp slF Gsp qzEx
— n)k ˆ Sdin)k W
d ’“-fi?(
][ “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
JspEp in)k ˆ kΛk}0 tF Gsp EpFCzyFp FsEtyvlrp zCpElGzE-

MEptxly lyo QEtpoxly ’%––fi( lwFz FHrrpFGpo FsEtyvtyr ty mzGs Gsp d
FClnp lyo c FClnp- jstF wploF Gz sAmEto FsEtyvlrp xzopwF zq Gsp qzEx
— EtorpWn)k ˆ Lλ din)k W
d ’“-fi4(
JspEp Lλ ˆ c’cj c ) λT(}0 cj tF Gsp Etorp EprEpFFtzy FsEtyvlrp zCpElGzE+

lF ty ’“-?[( zy Clrp [[- jsptE ClCpE lyo Gsp otFnHFFtzyF GspEpzq nzyGlty
xlyA xzEp opGltwF-
“-7 czEp zy Gsp lFFz lyo hpwlGpo flGs

LwrzEtGsxF
itynp Gsp CHmwtnlGtzy zq Gsp Lh lwrzEtGsx ’PqEzy pG lw-+ =$$?( GspEp slF
mppy l wzG zq lnGtItGA ty opIpwzCtyr lwrzEtGsxF qzE ¨GGtyr EprHwlEtBlGtzy
ClGsF qzE l IlEtpGA zq otΓpEpyG CEzmwpxF- Ty lootGtzy+ 0 EprHwlEtBlGtzy slF
Glvpy zy l wtqp zq tGF zJy+ wplotyr Gz Gsp opIpwzCxpyG zq Gsp ¨pwo nzxCEpFFpo
FpyFtyr ty Gsp Ftrylw!CEznpFFtyr wtGpElGHEp- ’Ozyzsz+ =$$[l: NlyopF+ =$$[(-
Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp otFnHFF Fzxp EpwlGpo CEzCzFlwF lyo zGspE ClGs lwrzEtGsxF+
FGlEGtyr zΓ JtGs l CEpnHEFzE Gz Gsp Lh lwrzEtGsx-
“-7-0 TynEpxpyGlw QzEJlEo iGlrpJtFp hprEpFFtzy

SpEp Jp CEpFpyG lyzGspE Lh!wtvp lwrzEtGsx+ GstF Gtxp qznHFpo zy qzEJlEo
FGlrpJtFp EprEpFFtzy- TyGpEpFGtyrwA+ pΓzEGF Gz HyopEFGlyo l 7pKtmwp yzywtyplE
EprEpFFtzy CEznpoHEp ’mzzFGtyr( wpo Gz l ypJ lwrzEtGsx qzE wtyplE xzopwF
’ Lh(- Ty Eplotyr Gsp ËFG potGtzy zq GstF mzzv lyo Gsp qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp
LwrzEtGsx 2-3 TynEpxpyGlw QzEJlEo iGlrpJtFp hprEpFFtzy1Qiǫ -

%- iGlEG JtGs Gsp EpFtoHlw E pDHlw Gz A lyo β0 W β= W , , , W βC ˆ $- Lww Gsp
CEpotnGzEF lEp FGlyolEotBpo Gz slIp xply BpEz lyo HytG yzEx-
=- Qtyo Gsp CEpotnGzE KH xzFG nzEEpwlGpo JtGs E
“- kColGp βH ← βH ) δH + JspEp δH ˆ ǫ ± Ftry”〈KH W E〉fl lyo ǫ / $ tF l Fxlww

FGpC FtBp+ lyo FpG E ← E } δH KH -
?- hpCplG FGpCF = lyo “ xlyA GtxpF+ HyGtw Gsp EpFtoHlwF lEp HynzEEpwlGpo
JtGs lww Gsp CEpotnGzEF-
LwrzEtGsx %[-% zq NslCGpE %[3 + zHE nzwwplrHp MElo PqEzy EplwtBpo GslG JtGs
3 Ty Gsp ËFG potGtzy) GstF JlF LwrzEtGsx %/-3 ty NslCGpE %/-

“-] czEp zy Gsp lFFz lyo hpwlGpo flGs LwrzEtGsxF ]fi
giǫ gi+
lcavol lcavol
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
dzC;ntCyGF
dzC;ntCyGF
svi svi
lweight lweight
pgg45 pgg45
lbph lbph
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
gleason gleason
age age
−0.2
−0.2
lcp lcp
0 50 100 150 200 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
uGCElGtzy 0 LEnbICyrGs zD dzC;ntCyGF
QTRIFD 2W08W NzpffntpyG CEz6wpF qzE Gsp CEzFGlGp olGl- jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF
tynEpxpyGlw qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp EprEpFFtzy JtGs FGpC FtBp ǫ ˆ /,/%- jsp EtrsG Clypw
FszJF Gsp ty6ytGpFtxlw IpEFtzy Qi+ zmGltypo wpGGtyr ǫ → /- jstF CEz6wp JlF 6G mA
Gsp xzot6nlGtzy “-=m Gz Gsp Lh LwrzEtGsx “-=- Ty GstF pKlxCwp Gsp Qi+ CEz6wpF
lEp xzyzGzyp+ lyo spynp topyGtnlw Gz GszFp zq wlFFz lyo Lh-
wtyplE xzopwF+ zyp nzHwo pKCwtntGwA nzyFGEHnG Gsp CtpnpJtFp!wtyplE wlFFz ClGsF
zq QtrHEp “-%$- jstF wpo stx Gz CEzCzFp Gsp Lh CEznpoHEp zq ipnGtzy “-?-?+
lF Jpww lF Gsp tynEpxpyGlw IpEFtzy zq qzEJlEo!FGlrpJtFp EprEpFFtzy CEpFpyGpo
spEp-
NzyFtopE Gsp wtyplE!EprEpFFtzy IpEFtzy zq Gsp qzEJlEo!FGlrpJtFp mzzFGtyr
lwrzEtGsx %[-% CEzCzFpo ty ipnGtzy %[-% ’Clrp [$](- TG rpypElGpF l nzpffntpyG
CEz¨wp mA EpCplGpowA HColGtyr ’mA l Fxlww lxzHyG ǫ( Gsp nzpffntpyG zq Gsp
IlEtlmwp xzFG nzEEpwlGpo JtGs Gsp nHEEpyG EpFtoHlwF- LwrzEtGsx “-? rtIpF
Gsp opGltwF- QtrHEp “-%– ’wpqG Clypw( FszJF Gsp CEzrEpFF zq Gsp lwrzEtGsx zy
Gsp CEzFGlGp olGl JtGs FGpC FtBp ǫ ˆ $,$%- Tq δH ˆ 〈KH W E〉 ’Gsp wplFG!FDHlEpF
nzpffntpyG zq Gsp EpFtoHlw zy uGs CEpotnGzE(+ Gspy GstF tF pKlnGwA Gsp HFHlw
qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp CEznpoHEp ’Qi( zHGwtypo ty ipnGtzy “-“-“-
SpEp Jp lEp xltywA tyGpEpFGpo ty Fxlww IlwHpF zq ǫ- pGGtyr ǫ → $ rtIpF
Gsp EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp “-%–+ Jstns ty GstF nlFp tF topyGtnlw Gz Gsp wlFFz
ClGs ty QtrHEp “-%$- bp nlww GstF wtxtGtyr CEznpoHEp tyÿtGpFtxlw qzEJlEo
FGlrpJtFp EprEpFFtzy zE Qi$ - jstF CEznpoHEp CwlAF ly txCzEGlyG Ezwp ty
yzy!wtyplE+ lolCGtIp xpGszoF wtvp mzzFGtyr ’NslCGpEF %$ lyo %[( lyo tF Gsp
IpEFtzy zq tynEpxpyGlw qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp EprEpFFtzy GslG tF xzFG lxpylmwp
Gz GspzEpGtnlw lylwAFtF- M6Hswxlyy lyo SzGszEy ’=$$fi( EpqpE Gz Gsp Flxp
CEznpoHEp lF ˜ =mzzFG˙+ mpnlHFp zq tGF nzyypnGtzyF Gz mzzFGtyr-
]] “- typlE cpGszoF qzE hprEpFFtzy
PqEzy zEtrtylwwA GszHrsG GslG Gsp Lh LwrzEtGsx “-= JlF ly txCwpxpy!

GlGtzy zq Qi$ + lwwzJtyr plns Gtpo CEpotnGzE l nslynp Gz HColGp GsptE nzpff!
ntpyGF ty l mlwlynpo JlA+ Jstwp Epxltytyr Gtpo ty nzEEpwlGtzy- SzJpIpE+ sp
Gspy EplwtBpo GslG Gsp Lh wplFG!FDHlEpF ¨G lxzyrFG Gsp Gtpo CEpotnGzEF
nly EpFHwG ty nzpffntpyGF xzItyr ty Gsp zCCzFtGp otEpnGtzy Gz GsptE nzEEpwl!
Gtzy+ Jstns nlyyzG slCCpy ty LwrzEtGsx “-?- jsp qzwwzJtyr xzot¨nlGtzy zq
Gsp Lh lwrzEtGsx txCwpxpyGF Qi$ 9
LwrzEtGsx 2-ˆm plFG Lyrwp hprEpFFtzy9 Qi$ Xzot¨nlGtzy-
?- Qtyo Gsp ypJ otEpnGtzy mA FzwItyr Gsp nzyFGEltypo wplFG FDHlEpF CEzm!
wpx
xty KKE } c mKK== FHmupnG Gz mH FH ≥ $W u ∈ L+
m
JspEp FH tF Gsp Ftry zq 〈KH W E〉-
jsp xzot¨nlGtzy lxzHyGF Gz l yzy!yprlGtIp wplFG FDHlEpF ¨G+ vppCtyr Gsp

FtryF zq Gsp nzpffntpyGF Gsp Flxp lF GszFp zq Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF- Zyp nly FszJ
GslG GstF lnstpIpF Gsp zCGtxlw mlwlyntyr zq tyÿtGpFtxlw ˜HColGp GHEyF˙
qzE Gsp IlEtlmwpF Gtpo qzE xlKtxlw nzEEpwlGtzy ’SlFGtp pG lw-+ =$$fi(- tvp
wlFFz+ Gsp pyGtEp Qi$ ClGs nly mp nzxCHGpo IpEA pffntpyGwA Itl Gsp Lh
lwrzEtGsx-
LF l nzyFpDHpynp zq GspFp EpFHwGF+ tq Gsp Lh CEz¨wpF lEp xzyzGzyp yzy!
tynEplFtyr zE yzy!opnEplFtyr+ lF GspA lEp ty QtrHEp “-%–+ Gspy lww GsEpp
xpGszoF1 Lh+ wlFFz+ lyo Qi$ 1rtIp topyGtnlw CEz¨wpF- Tq Gsp CEz¨wpF lEp
yzG xzyzGzyp mHG oz yzG nEzFF Gsp BpEz lKtF+ Gspy Lh lyo wlFFz lEp
topyGtnlw-
itynp Qi$ tF otΓpEpyG qEzx Gsp wlFFz+ tG tF ylGHElw Gz lFv tq tG zCGtxtBpF
l nEtGpEtzy- jsp lyFJpE tF xzEp nzxCwpK Gsly qzE wlFFz: Gsp Qi$ nzpffntpyG
CEz¨wp tF Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz l otΓpEpyGtlw pDHlGtzy- bstwp Gsp wlFFz xlvpF zC!
Gtxlw CEzrEpFF ty GpExF zq EpoHntyr Gsp EpFtoHlw FHx!zq!FDHlEpF CpE HytG
tynEplFp ty 0 !yzEx zq Gsp nzpffntpyG IpnGzE β+ Qi$ tF zCGtxlw CpE HytG
tynEplFp ty 0 lEn!wpyrGs GElIpwpo lwzyr Gsp nzpffntpyG ClGs- Spynp tGF nz!
pffntpyG ClGs tF otFnzHElrpo qEzx nslyrtyr otEpnGtzyF Gzz zqGpy-
Qi$ tF xzEp nzyFGEltypo Gsly wlFFz+ lyo ty qlnG nly mp ItpJpo lF l xzyz!
Gzyp IpEFtzy zq Gsp wlFFz: Fpp QtrHEp %[-“ zy Clrp [%? qzE l oElxlGtn pKlx!
Cwp- Qi$ xlA mp HFpqHw ty C ≫ Y FtGHlGtzyF+ JspEp tGF nzpffntpyG CEz¨wpF
lEp xHns FxzzGspE lyo spynp slIp wpFF IlEtlynp Gsly GszFp zq wlFFz- XzEp
opGltwF zy Qi$ lEp rtIpy ty ipnGtzy %[-=-“ lyo SlFGtp pG lw- ’=$$fi(- Qtr!
HEp “-%[ tynwHopF Qi$ JspEp tGF CpEqzExlynp tF IpEA FtxtwlE Gz GslG zq Gsp
wlFFz-
“-] czEp zy Gsp lFFz lyo hpwlGpo flGs LwrzEtGsxF ]–
“-7-1 ftpnpJtFp, typlE flGs LwrzEtGsxF

jsp wplFG lyrwp EprEpFFtzy CEznpoHEp pKCwztGF Gsp CtpnpJtFp wtyplE ylGHEp zq
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lww GtxpF GstF nzEEpwlGtzy tF wlErpE Gsly GslG qzE yzy!lnGtIp IlEtlmwpF- jsp
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xlKtxHx Gsly Gsp wlFFz+ mHG ty Gsp CEznpFF l nHEtzHF Cspyzxpyzy nly
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2.5
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PK- “-“ RlHFF8XlEvzI GspzEpx9
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pFGtxlGp zq β lyo a 2 tF Gsp IlEtlynp!nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK zq lyA zGspE
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PKpEntFpF –4
PK- “-? iszJ szJ Gsp IpnGzE zq wplFG FDHlEpF nzpffntpyGF nly mp zmGltypo
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wpx tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp CEzmwpx
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lnGpEtBp Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz GstF xzot¨po nEtGpEtzy- iszJ GslG l FtxtwlE EpFHwG
szwoF qzE Gsp wlFFz-
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zq Gsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy+ HyopE l RlHFFtly CEtzE β ∼ Y ’$W τ T(+ lyo
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Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpE λ ty Gsp Etorp qzExHwl+ lyo Gsp IlEtlynpF τ
lyo σ = -
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βH lEp plns otFGEtmHGpo lF Y ’$W τ = (+ tyopCpyopyGwA zq zyp lyzGspE- LFFHxtyr
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npyGpEpo xlGEtK c-
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A+ lyo Jp slIp ly lootGtzylw C } D CEpotnGzEF ty Gsp xlGEtK c= - OpyzGp Gsp
nHEEpyG EpFtoHlw mA E- bp JtFs Gz pFGlmwtFs Jstns zyp zq GspFp lootGtzylw
IlEtlmwpF Jtww EpoHnp Gsp EpFtoHlw!FHx!zq FDHlEpF Gsp xzFG Jspy tynwHopo
JtGs GszFp ty c0 - OpFnEtmp ly pffntpyG CEznpoHEp qzE oztyr GstF-
PK- “-%$ MlnvJlEo FGpCJtFp EprEpFFtzy- iHCCzFp Jp slIp Gsp xHwGtCwp Ep!
rEpFFtzy ¨G zq A zy c+ lwzyr JtGs Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzEF lyo e!FnzEpF lF ty
jlmwp “-=- bp JtFs Gz pFGlmwtFs Jstns IlEtlmwp+ Jspy oEzCCpo+ Jtww tynEplFp
Gsp EpFtoHlw FHx!zq!FDHlEpF Gsp wplFG- SzJ JzHwo AzH oz GstF¯
PK- “-%% iszJ GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz Gsp xHwGtIlEtlGp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy CEzm!
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√ olGl FpG- bp lHrxpyG
Gsp npyGpEpo xlGEtK c JtGs C lootGtzylw EzJF λT+ lyo lHrxpyG A JtGs C
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Gsp topl zq styGF oHp Gz LmH!XzFGlql ’%––4(+ JspEp xzopw nzyFGEltyGF lEp
txCwpxpyGpo mA lootyr lEGt¨ntlw olGl pKlxCwpF GslG FlGtFqA Gspx-
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PK- “-%? iszJ GslG ty Gsp zEGszrzylw nlFp+ f i FGzCF lqGpE x ˆ % FGpCF+
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PK- “-%4 apEtqA pKCEpFFtzy ’“-[?(+ lyo spynp FszJ GslG Gsp ClEGtlw wplFG
FDHlEpF otEpnGtzyF lEp l nzxCEzxtFp mpGJppy Gsp zEotylEA EprEpFFtzy nzpq!
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ty Gsp zEGszrzylw nlFp-
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%
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ty xlrytGHop lF Jp CEzrEpFF GzJlEo H-
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lyo spynp GspA opnEplFp xzyzGzytnlwwA Gz BpEz-

’n( kFp GspFp EpFHwGF Gz FszJ GslG Gsp Lh lwrzEtGsx ty ipnGtzy “-?-?
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ty ’“-44(-
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tF wlErpFG ty xlrytGHop-
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pG lw-+ =$$?: hzFFpG lyo esH+ =$$fi(-
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topyGtnlw nzCA cH{ ˆ cH - NslElnGpEtBp Gsp pΓpnG zq GstF pKlnG nzwwtyplEtGA
mA opFnEtmtyr Gsp FpG zq FzwHGtzyF qzE β—H lyo β—H{ + HFtyr Gsp Flxp IlwHp zq G-
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2 3
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nEpGp FpG Q+ Jp nly lwJlAF otItop Gsp tyCHG FClnp tyGz l nzwwpnGtzy zq EprtzyF
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lEp wtyplE: GstF tF JslG Jp Jtww xply mA wtyplE xpGszoF qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy-
jspEp lEp FpIpElw otΓpEpyG JlAF ty Jstns wtyplE opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF nly
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mpGJppy nwlFF v lyo ℓ tF GslG FpG zq CztyGF qzE Jstns q—v ’K( ˆ q—ℓ ’K(+ GslG tF+
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GslG xzopw otFnEtxtylyG qHynGtzyF δv ’K( qzE plns nwlFF+ lyo Gspy nwlFFtqA K
Gz Gsp nwlFF JtGs Gsp wlErpFG IlwHp qzE tGF otFnEtxtylyG qHynGtzy- XpGszoF
0 iGEtnGwA FCplvtyr) l sACpECwlyp ClFFpF GsEzHrs Gsp zEtrty) Jstwp ly lffyp FpG yppo
yzG- bp FzxpGtxpF tryzEp Gsp otFGtynGtzy lyo EpqpE ty rpypElw Gz sACpECwlypF-

%/= ?- typlE cpGszoF qzE NwlFFt6nlGtzy
GslG xzopw Gsp CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGtpF fE’R ˆ vKc ˆ K( lEp lwFz ty GstF
nwlFF- NwplEwA+ tq ptGspE Gsp δv ’K( zE fE’R ˆ vKc ˆ K( lEp wtyplE ty K+ Gspy
Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF Jtww mp wtyplE-
LnGHlwwA+ lww Jp EpDHtEp tF GslG Fzxp xzyzGzyp GElyFqzExlGtzy zq δv zE
fE’R ˆ vKc ˆ K( mp wtyplE qzE Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF Gz mp wtyplE- QzE
pKlxCwp+ tq GspEp lEp GJz nwlFFpF+ l CzCHwlE xzopw qzE Gsp CzFGpEtzE CEzml!
mtwtGtpF tF
pKC’β$ ) β j K(
fE’R ˆ %Kc ˆ K( ˆ W
% ) pKC’β$ ) β j K(
’?-%(
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fE’R ˆ =Kc ˆ K( ˆ ,
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SpEp Gsp xzyzGzyp GElyFqzExlGtzy tF Gsp wzrtG GElyFqzExlGtzy9 wzr”C.’%}C(fl+

lyo ty qlnG Jp Fpp GslG
fE’R ˆ %Kc ˆ K(
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fE’R ˆ =Kc ˆ K(
jsp opntFtzy mzHyolEA tF Gsp FpG zq5CztyGF qzE Jstns6Gsp wzr,zooF lEp BpEz+
lyo GstF tF l sACpECwlyp opÿpo mA KKβ$ ) β j K ˆ $ - bp otFnHFF GJz IpEA
CzCHwlE mHG otΓpEpyG xpGszoF GslG EpFHwG ty wtyplE wzr!zooF zE wzrtGF9 wtyplE
otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF lyo wtyplE wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy- LwGszHrs GspA otΓpE ty
GsptE opEtIlGtzy+ Gsp pFFpyGtlw otΓpEpynp mpGJppy Gspx tF ty Gsp JlA Gsp
wtyplE qHynGtzy tF ¨G Gz Gsp GEltytyr olGl-
L xzEp otEpnG lCCEzlns tF Gz pKCwtntGwA xzopw Gsp mzHyolEtpF mpGJppy
Gsp nwlFFpF lF wtyplE- QzE l GJz!nwlFF CEzmwpx ty l C!otxpyFtzylw tyCHG
FClnp+ GstF lxzHyGF Gz xzopwtyr Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEA lF l sACpECwlyp1ty
zGspE JzEoF+ l yzExlw IpnGzE lyo l nHG!CztyG- bp Jtww wzzv lG GJz xpGszoF
GslG pKCwtntGwA wzzv qzE ˜FpClElGtyr sACpECwlypF-˙ jsp ËFG tF Gsp Jpww!
vyzJy CpEnpCGEzy xzopw zq hzFpymwlGG ’%–4](+ JtGs ly lwrzEtGsx GslG ÿoF
l FpClElGtyr sACpECwlyp ty Gsp GEltytyr olGl+ tq zyp pKtFGF- jsp Fpnzyo
xpGszo+ oHp Gz alCytv ’%––[(+ ÿoF ly zCGtxlwwA FpClElGtyr sACpECwlyp tq
zyp pKtFGF+ pwFp ÿoF l sACpECwlyp GslG xtytxtBpF Fzxp xplFHEp zq zIpEwlC
ty Gsp GEltytyr olGl- bp GEplG Gsp FpClElmwp nlFp spEp+ lyo opqpE GEplGxpyG
zq Gsp yzyFpClElmwp nlFp Gz NslCGpE %=-
bstwp GstF pyGtEp nslCGpE tF opIzGpo Gz wtyplE opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF+ GspEp tF
nzyFtopElmwp FnzCp qzE rpypElwtBlGtzy- QzE pKlxCwp+ Jp nly pKClyo zHE IlEt!
lmwp FpG c0 W , , , W cC mA tynwHotyr GsptE FDHlEpF lyo nEzFF!CEzoHnGF c0= W c== W , , , W
c0 c= W , , ,+ GspEpmA lootyr C’C ) %(.= lootGtzylw IlEtlmwpF- typlE qHynGtzyF
ty Gsp lHrxpyGpo FClnp xlC ozJy Gz DHloElGtn qHynGtzyF ty Gsp zEtrtylw
FClnp1spynp wtyplE opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF Gz DHloElGtn opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF-
QtrHEp ?-% twwHFGElGpF Gsp topl- jsp olGl lEp Gsp Flxp9 Gsp wpqG CwzG HFpF
wtyplE opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF ty Gsp GJz!otxpyFtzylw FClnp FszJy+ Jstwp Gsp
EtrsG CwzG HFpF wtyplE opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF ty Gsp lHrxpyGpo Ïp!otxpyFtzylw
FClnp opFnEtmpo lmzIp- jstF lCCEzlns nly mp HFpo JtGs lyA mlFtF GElyFqzE!
?-= typlE hprEpFFtzy zq ly TyotnlGzE clGEtK %/“
1 1
2 1 2 1
1 1
2 1 2 1
22 3 22 3
2 22 2 1 2 22 2 1
2 22 3 2 22 3
2 22 2 33 3 3 3 2 22 2 33 3 3 3
2 12 33 3 3 2 12 33 3 3
2 2 22 2 22 2 3 3 3 2 2 22 2 22 2 3 3 3
2 222 2 1 2 222 2 1
2
2 22 2 2 2 1 3 2
2 22 2 2 2 1 3
22 2 2 22 22 2 2 3 3 22 2 2 22 22 2 2 3 3
2 2222 2222 2222 22 22222 2 2 3 33333 3 33 2 2222 2222 2222 22 22222 2 2 3 33333 3 33
2 2222 2 2 2 2222222 21 33 3 2 2222 2 2 2 2222222 21 33 3
2 22 22
22 22 2 22 2 3
3 3 3333 3 3
3 2 22 22
22 22 2 22 2 3
3 3 3333 3 3
3
2 22 22 2 2 22 22 2 22 2 22 22 2 2 22 22 2 22
2 2 2
2 22 222222 222222222 13 333 33 2 2 2
2 22 222222 222222222 13 333 33
1 2 22222 2122 22222222222 3 333 3 3 1 2 22222 2122 22222222222 3 333 3 3
1 33
3 3 3 1 33
3 3 3
2 2
2 122122 22
2
1 22212 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 33 33 3 2 2
2 122122 22
2
1 22212 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 33 33 3
2 2 22 1 2 2
22 2
1 1 11 1 3 33 33 2 2 22 1 2 2
22 2
1 1 11 1 3 33 33
11
1 2 1 22 2211 22 1 1 11 11 11 1 1 1 11 113333333333 3 33
11
1 2 1 22 2211 22 1 1 11 11 11 1 1 1 11 113333333333 3 33
1
12 1 2
22
2
11 1 1 1 1
22 1 11 1
1 1 1 1 1 133 333 3333
1 1 3 1
12 1 2
22
2
11 1 1 1 1
22 1 11 1
1 1 1 1 1 133 333 3333
1 1 3
1 1 3 3
333333333 3
1 1 1 3 3
333333333 3
1
2 111 2
1 11 2 111 11 1 2 111 2 11 1
1 1 1 11 1 1 1 3333333
11 1 1 1 333 1 11 2 111 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 3333333
11 1 1 1 333
1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 11 1111 111 1 1 1111 1111 1 111 3 3 3333 33 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 11 1111 111 1 1 1111 1111 1 111 3 3 3333 33 3
1 11 1 111 1 1 313 1
33
33
1 11 1 111 1 1 313 1
33
33
1 1 3333333 33 1 1 3333333 33
1 1 1 11 1 31 33 3 3 1 1 1 11 1 31 33 3 3
11 1 1 1 1 111111 11 111 1 1 1 1 1 333333333333 11 1 1 1 1 111111 11 111 1 1 1 1 1 333333333333
1 11 1 1 11 33 3 333333 33 1 11 1 1 11 33 3 333333 33
1 11 1 1 3 3 3 1 11 1 1 3 3 3
11 3 333 11 3 333
1 1 11 3 33 1 1 11 3 33
1 1 3 1 1 3
333 3 333 3
3 3
3 3 3 3
QTRIFD 3W0W jsp wpqG CwzG FszJF Fzxp olGl qEzx GsEpp nwlFFpF+ JtGs wtyplE
opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF qzHyo mA wtyplE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF- jsp EtrsG CwzG FszJF
DHloElGtn opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF- jspFp JpEp zmGltypo mA 6yotyr wtyplE mzHyolEtpF
ty Gsp 6Ip,otxpyFtzylw FClnp c0 W c= W c0 c= W c0= W c== - typlE typDHlwtGtpF ty GstF
FClnp lEp DHloElGtn typDHlwtGtpF ty Gsp zEtrtylw FClnp-
xlGtzy s’c( JspEp s 9 ThC 5→ ThD JtGs D / C+ lyo Jtww mp pKCwzEpo ty wlGpE
nslCGpEF-
?-1 typlE hprEpFFtzy zq ly TyotnlGzE clGEtK

SpEp plns zq Gsp EpFCzyFp nlGprzEtpF lEp nzopo Itl ly tyotnlGzE IlEtlmwp-
jsHF tq Q slF V nwlFFpF+ GspEp Jtww mp V FHns tyotnlGzEF dv W v ˆ %W , , , W V+
JtGs dv ˆ % tq R ˆ v pwFp $- jspFp lEp nzwwpnGpo GzrpGspE ty l IpnGzE
d ˆ ’d0 W , , , W dV (+ lyo Gsp Y GEltytyr tyFGlynpF zq GspFp qzEx ly Y × V
tyotnlGzE EpFCzyFp xlGEtK d- d tF l xlGEtK zq $&F lyo %&F+ JtGs plns EzJ
slItyr l Ftyrwp %- bp ¨G l wtyplE EprEpFFtzy xzopw Gz plns zq Gsp nzwHxyF
zq d FtxHwGlypzHFwA+ lyo Gsp ¨G tF rtIpy mA
— ˆ c’cj c(}0 cj d,
d ’?-“(
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ntpyG IpnGzE qzE plns EpFCzyFp nzwHxy Av + lyo spynp l ’C)%(×V nzpffntpyG
xlGEtK M— ˆ ’cj c(}0 cj d- SpEp c tF Gsp xzopw xlGEtK JtGs C)% nzwHxyF
nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz Gsp C tyCHGF+ lyo l wplotyr nzwHxy zq %&F qzE Gsp tyGpEnpCG-
L ypJ zmFpEIlGtzy JtGs tyCHG K tF nwlFFt¨po lF qzwwzJF9
| nzxCHGp Gsp ¨GGpo zHGCHG q—’K(j ˆ ’%W Kj (M+
— l V IpnGzE:
| topyGtqA Gsp wlErpFG nzxCzypyG lyo nwlFFtqA lnnzEotyrwA9

—
R’K( ˆ lErxlKv∈P q—v ’K(, ’?-?(
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tF Gz ItpJ Gsp EprEpFFtzy lF ly pFGtxlGp zq nzyotGtzylw pKCpnGlGtzy- QzE Gsp
Elyozx IlEtlmwp dv + P’dv Kc ˆ K( ˆ fE’R ˆ vKc ˆ K(+ Fz nzyotGtzylw
pKCpnGlGtzy zq plns zq Gsp dv FppxF l FpyFtmwp rzlw- jsp Eplw tFFHp tF9 szJ
rzzo ly lCCEzKtxlGtzy Gz nzyotGtzylw pKCpnGlGtzy tF Gsp ElGspE Etrto wtyplE
EprEpFFtzy xzopw¯ LwGpEylGtIpwA+ lEp Gsp q—v ’K( EplFzylmwp pFGtxlGpF zq Gsp
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xlGGpE¯ (
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wzyr lF GspEp tF ly tyGpEnpCG ty Gsp xzopw ’nzwHxy zq %&F ty c(- SzJpIpE+
Gsp q—v ’K( nly mp yprlGtIp zE rEplGpE Gsly %+ lyo GACtnlwwA Fzxp lEp- jstF
tF l nzyFpDHpynp zq Gsp Etrto ylGHEp zq wtyplE EprEpFFtzy+ pFCpntlwwA tq Jp
xlvp CEpotnGtzyF zHGFtop Gsp sHww zq Gsp GEltytyr olGl- jspFp ItzwlGtzyF ty
GspxFpwIpF oz yzG rHlElyGpp GslG GstF lCCEzlns Jtww yzG JzEv+ lyo ty qlnG
zy xlyA CEzmwpxF tG rtIpF FtxtwlE EpFHwGF Gz xzEp FGlyolEo wtyplE xpGs!
zoF qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy- Tq Jp lwwzJ wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zyGz mlFtF pKClyFtzyF
s’c( zq Gsp tyCHGF+ GstF lCCEzlns nly wplo Gz nzyFtFGpyG pFGtxlGpF zq Gsp
CEzmlmtwtGtpF- LF Gsp FtBp zq Gsp GEltytyr FpG Y rEzJF mtrrpE+ Jp lolCGtIpwA
tynwHop xzEp mlFtF pwpxpyGF Fz GslG wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zyGz GspFp mlFtF qHyn!
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NslCGpE 4-
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JspEp Gv tF Gsp vGs nzwHxy zq Gsp V × V topyGtGA xlGEtK- ZHE CEpotnGtzy
CEzmwpx tF Gz GEA lyo EpCEzoHnp Gsp lCCEzCEtlGp GlErpG qzE ly zmFpEIlGtzy-
btGs Gsp Flxp nzotyr lF mpqzEp+ Gsp EpFCzyFp IpnGzE At ’tGs EzJ zq d( qzE
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xzopw mA wplFG FDHlEpF9
Y
∑
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M
tˆ0
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qEzx GsptE GlErpGF- L ypJ zmFpEIlGtzy tF nwlFFt¨po mA nzxCHGtyr tGF ¨GGpo
IpnGzE q—’K( lyo nwlFFtqAtyr Gz Gsp nwzFpFG GlErpG9
—
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v
jstF tF pKlnGwA Gsp Flxp lF Gsp CEpItzHF lCCEzlns9

| jsp FHx!zq!FDHlEpo!yzEx nEtGpEtzy tF pKlnGwA Gsp nEtGpEtzy qzE xHwGt!
Cwp EpFCzyFp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy+ uHFG ItpJpo FwtrsGwA otΓpEpyGwA- itynp
l FDHlEpo yzEx tF tGFpwq l FHx zq FDHlEpF+ Gsp nzxCzypyGF opnzHCwp
lyo nly mp EplEElyrpo lF l FpClElGp wtyplE xzopw qzE plns pwpxpyG-
YzGp GslG GstF tF zywA CzFFtmwp mpnlHFp GspEp tF yzGstyr ty Gsp xzopw
GslG mtyoF Gsp otΓpEpyG EpFCzyFpF GzrpGspE-
?-= typlE hprEpFFtzy zq ly TyotnlGzE clGEtK %/4
Linear Regression Linear Discriminant Analysis
3 3 3 3
3 3 33 3 3 33
3 33333 333 33 33 3 33333 333 33 33
3 33 3 33
3 3 3 3333 3 3
3 3 3 3 3333 3 3
3
3 3 333 333 3333333 333333 3 3 3 3 333 333 3333333 333333 3 3
333 3 3333 333333 333
3333 333333333 3 3 333 3 3333 333333 333
3333 333333333 3 3
3 33 333333333 333333 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 33 333333333 333333 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
333 3 33333 3333 3 3333 3333333333 3333333 333 3 33333 3333 3 3333 3333333333 3333333
3 3 33 3 333 3333 3333 33 3333 333 3 3 3 33 3 333 3333 3333 33 3333 333 3
3 33 333333333 33 33 3 3333 3
33
3 3 3
333 3 33 333 33
33 3 3 3 33 333333333 33 33 3 3333 3
33
3 3 3
333 3 33 333 33
33 3 3
33333333333333 33333333333333
3 3 33 3 33 33 33
3 33 33 3 333
33333
33 33333
3333 333 33333 333
3 3
3 3 33 3 33 33 33
3 33 33 3 333
33333
33 33333
3333 333 33333 333
3 3
3 333 33 3333333333333333 33 333 3 33 3 333 33 3333333333333333 33 333 3 33
3 33 33 333 33333333333333 33 3333333333 3 3 3 33 33 333 33333333333333 33 3333333333 3 3
33 333 3 33 333 3 33333 333
3 3 333
3 33 333 3 33 333 3 33333 333
3 3 333
3
2 33
33 3 3 33 333333 3333 33 3 3 33 2 33
33 3 3 33 333333 3333 33 3 3 33
3 3 3 33 3 33333 3 3 333333 3 33
3 3 3 3 33 3 33333 3 3 333333 3 33
3
2 2 3 33 33 3 3 3 2 2 3 33 33 3 3 3
2 3 3 3 3 333 3 33 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 333 3 33 3 3 3
3 3 3 3 3 3 3
3
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
3
3
2 22 2 2 223 3 33 3 2 22 2 2 223 3 33 3
3 3
2 2 2 222 2 2 2 222
2 222 2222222 2 2 222 2222222 2
2 22222 22 2222 2 22 2 3 2 22222 22 2222 2 22 2 3
2 2 2222 2 222 22222222 22 2 2 3 2 2 2222 2 222 22222222 22 2 2 3
22 2222 222 2222 22 222 222 222 22 2222 222 2222 22 222 222 222
2 2 222 222222 22 2222 22222 22
22222222 22 2222 2 2 222 222222 2222 22222 22
22222222 22 2222
2 2 2 22222 22 22 2222 22 2 2 2 2 2 22222 2222 22 2222 22 2 2
c=
c=
2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2222
2 2
22
22 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2222
2 2
22
22 2
2 2 22 222222222222222 222 2222 2 2 22 2 22 2 2 22 222222222222222 222 2222 2 2 22 2 22
2 2 2222222 22
2 2222 22222222 2222222 22 2222222 2 2 2 2 2222222 22 2222 22222222 2222222 22 2222222 2 2
2 22 2
22 2 22 2 2222 2 2 22 2
22 2 22 2 2222 2
22 222 2222 222222 22222 222222 2 2 222222222 2 22 222 2222 2
222222 22222 222222 2 2 222222222 2
2 22 2 2222222
2
2222 222222222222 2222 22222 2 22 2 2222222
2
2222 222222222222 2222 22222
2 2222222 2 222222 2222 22 22222222 2 2222222 2 222222 2222 22 22222222
2 22 222222222222222 2 2 22 222222222222222 2
1 2 2222 22 222 22 2 1 2 2222 22 222 22 2
1 1 2 2 2222 222 2 22 22 22 2 2 22 2 1 1 2 2 2222 222 2 22 22 22 2 2 22 2
1 1 11 2 22 2 22 2 1 1 11 2 22 2 22 2
1 22 22 222 222 1 22 22 222 222
11 1
1 11 1 22 22 222 2 2 11 1
1 11 1 22 22 222 2 2
1 1 1111 11 1 111 11 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1111 11 1 111 11 1 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 111 1 1 11 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 111 1 1 11 1 1 1 2 2 2
1 1 1
11 111111 11 1111 1111111 1 11 11
1 1 1
11 111111 11 1111 1111111 1 11 11
1 1 11111 11 1111 11111 1111 1 1 11111 11 1111 11111 1111
1 1 1 1 1111 1 11111111 1111 1 1 1 1 1111 1 11111111 1111
1 11 1 1 11111 1111 1111111 11 1 11 1 1 1 11 1 1 11111 1111 1111111 11 1 11 1 1
1 1 1111 11 11 11 1 11111 11 1111 111 1 1 1 1 1111 11 11 11 1 11111 11 1111 111 1 1
1 11 111 1111111111 111 111111 11 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 11 111 1111111111 111 111111 11 1 1 1 11 1 1
1 111 111111 111111 1
11
111 11111111 1 11111 1
11111 1
1 1 111 111111 111111 1
11
111 11111111 1 11111 1
11111 1
1
1 11 1
11 111 1 11 1 1
1 11111 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 1 11 1 1
1 11111 1 1 1
11 1 111111
1 11
1 111
11111 1
11111 11 11 1 111111
1 11
1 111
111 11111 1
11111 11
1 1 11111
1111111
1 1111 111 1111111
1111 1111
1 11111 1 1 1 1 1 1 11111
11
1 1111
1111
1111 1111111
1111 1111
1 11111 1 1 1 1
111 1 1 1
11 11 111111111111 11
11 1 11 1 1 1 1
11 1 111 1 1 1
11 11 111111111111 11
11 1 11 1 1 1 1
11 1
1 1 11111 1 1 111111 1 11 11
1 1
1 1 11111 1 111111 1 11 11
1 1
1 11 1111 1 111111 11 1 1 1 11
11111 1 111111 11 1 1
1 1 1111 1 1 1 11 1 1 1111 1 1 1 11
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 111 1 1 1 1 1 1 111
1 1 1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
c0 c0
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Ftzy zq Gsp tyotnlGzE EpFCzyFp IlEtlmwpF- jsp xtoowp nwlFF tF nzxCwpGpwA xlFvpo
’ypIpE ozxtylGpF(-
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EpDHtEp GslG Gsp ¨GGpo IlwHpF FHx Gz %-
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zq nwlFFpF V ≥ “+ pFCpntlwwA CEpIlwpyG Jspy V tF wlErp- MpnlHFp zq Gsp Etrto
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xtoowp nwlFF nzxCwpGpwA-
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npyGEztoF ’GspEp tF yz tyqzExlGtzy ty Gsp zEGszrzylw otEpnGtzy ty GstF nlFp(+
lyo Jp slIp tynwHopo lyo nzopo Gsp GsEpp EpFCzyFp IlEtlmwpF d0 + d= lyo
d˜ - jsp GsEpp EprEpFFtzy wtypF ’wpqG Clypw( lEp tynwHopo+ lyo Jp Fpp GslG
Gsp wtyp nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz Gsp xtoowp nwlFF tF szEtBzyGlw lyo tGF ¨GGpo IlwHpF
lEp ypIpE ozxtylyG, jsHF+ zmFpEIlGtzyF qEzx nwlFF = lEp nwlFFt¨po ptGspE
lF nwlFF % zE nwlFF “- jsp EtrsG Clypw HFpF DHloElGtn EprEpFFtzy ElGspE Gsly
wtyplE EprEpFFtzy- QzE GstF FtxCwp pKlxCwp l DHloElGtn ElGspE Gsly wtyplE
¨G ’qzE Gsp xtoowp nwlFF lG wplFG( JzHwo FzwIp Gsp CEzmwpx- SzJpIpE+ tG
nly mp Fppy GslG tq GspEp JpEp qzHE ElGspE Gsly GsEpp nwlFFpF wtypo HC wtvp
GstF+ l DHloElGtn JzHwo yzG nzxp ozJy qlFG pyzHrs+ lyo l nHmtn JzHwo
mp yppopo lF Jpww- L wzzFp mHG rpypElw EHwp tF GslG tq V ≥ “ nwlFFpF lEp
wtypo HC+ CzwAyzxtlw GpExF HC Gz oprEpp V } % xtrsG mp yppopo Gz EpFzwIp
Gspx- YzGp lwFz GslG GspFp lEp CzwAyzxtlwF lwzyr Gsp opEtIpo otEpnGtzy
%/[ ?- typlE cpGszoF qzE NwlFFt6nlGtzy
eCrECC 1 04 fEEzE 1 .-22 eCrECC 1 =4 fEEzE 1 .-.3

1 1
111
1.0 11
111 33 11 33
111 333 11
33 1 3
33
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333 3
1111 333 33
111
1111 3
3333
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1 3
3
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11
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33
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1 3 2 2222222
2
22
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333
11 222222 22222 33
0.5 111
111 33
111
1 2 2
22 333
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1111 33333 0.5 22 33 222
1112
23
3
32 2 22 222 222 22222222222222222222 22
2222222 222
2 22222222 222 2 2222222222 2222222
222
222 2 2222222 22222
322
2
22
33 112222222 22222
12 22
2 1 3 22
3333 11111 22
22 111 33
333
22
22
333 11 2 1111 3 222
33 11 222 11111 33333 22
33 222 113 3 22
3
111 3
33333 13
1311111 22
1 3333 33 111 222
3333 3 2 33333 11111 22 1111 11
33
11
11 0.0 32
22
3 3 333333333
3 3333333
333
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111 111
11111111111112
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22
0.0 3333 1
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1111 222 22
33
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111 2
2 2
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11 2
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33
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3 2
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
QTRIFD 3W2W jsp p;pnGF zq xlFvtyr zy wtyplE EprEpFFtzy ty Th qzE l GsEpp,nwlFF

CEzmwpx- jsp EHr CwzG lG Gsp mlFp tyotnlGpF Gsp CzFtGtzyF lyo nwlFF xpxmpEFstC zq
plns zmFpEIlGtzy- jsp GsEpp nHEIpF ty plns Clypw lEp Gsp 6GGpo EprEpFFtzyF Gz Gsp
GsEpp,nwlFF tyotnlGzE IlEtlmwpF‘ qzE pKlxCwp+ qzE Gsp mwHp nwlFF+ LmkSp tF % qzE Gsp
mwHp zmFpEIlGtzyF+ lyo / qzE Gsp rEppy lyo zElyrp- jsp 6GF lEp wtyplE lyo DHloElGtn
CzwAyzxtlwF- LmzIp plns CwzG tF Gsp GEltytyr pEEzE ElGp- jsp MlApF pEEzE ElGp tF
/,/=4 qzE GstF CEzmwpx+ lF tF Gsp OL pEEzE ElGp-
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C!otxpyFtzylw tyCHG FClnp+ zyp JzHwo yppo rpypElw CzwAyzxtlw GpExF lyo
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JzEFG!nlFp FnpylEtzF-
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jstF tF l otffnHwG nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpx+ lyo Gsp mpFG xpGszoF lnstpIp
lEzHyo ?$0 pEEzEF zy Gsp GpFG olGl- jsp xlty CztyG spEp tF FHxxlEtBpo ty
jlmwp ?-%: wtyplE EprEpFFtzy slF ly pEEzE ElGp zq [fi0+ Jstwp l nwzFp EpwlGtIp+
wtyplE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF+ slF ly pEEzE ElGp zq 4[0- TG FppxF GslG xlFvtyr
slF sHEG ty GstF nlFp- bstwp lww Gsp zGspE xpGszoF ty GstF nslCGpE lEp mlFpo
zy wtyplE qHynGtzyF zq K lF Jpww+ GspA HFp Gspx ty FHns l JlA GslG lIztoF
GstF xlFvtyr CEzmwpx-
?-“ typlE OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF

OpntFtzy GspzEA qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ’ipnGtzy =-?( GpwwF HF GslG Jp yppo Gz vyzJ
Gsp nwlFF CzFGpEtzEF fE’RKc( qzE zCGtxlw nwlFFt¨nlGtzy- iHCCzFp qv ’K( tF
Gsp nwlFF!nzyotGtzylw opyFtGA (zq c ty nwlFF R ˆ v+ lyo wpG πv mp Gsp CEtzE
V
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Linear Discriminant Analysis
4 oooo oooo
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Coordinate 2 for Training Data
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QTRIFD 3W3W L GJz,otxpyFtzylw CwzG zq Gsp IzJpw GEltytyr olGl- jspEp lEp
pwpIpy nwlFFpF JtGs c ∈ Th0+ + lyo GstF tF Gsp mpFG ItpJ ty GpExF zq l OL xzopw
’ipnGtzy 3-“-“(- jsp splIA ntEnwpF lEp Gsp CEzupnGpo xply IpnGzEF qzE plns nwlFF-
jsp nwlFF zIpEwlC tF nzyFtopElmwp-
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zy Gsp IzJpw olGl- jspEp lEp pwpIpy nwlFFpF ty Gpy otxpyFtzyF+ zq Jstns GsEpp
lnnzHyG qzE –/0 zq Gsp IlEtlynp ’Itl l CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lylwAFtF(- bp Fpp
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GspzEpx rtIpF HF
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| wtyplE lyo DHloElGtn otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF HFp RlHFFtly opyFtGtpF:
| xzEp 7pKtmwp xtKGHEpF zq RlHFFtlyF lwwzJ qzE yzywtyplE opntFtzy mzHyo!
lEtpF ’ipnGtzy [-](:
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Gsp xzFG 7pKtmtwtGA ’ipnGtzy [-[-=(:
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GslG tF+ GspA lFFHxp GslG Gsp tyCHGF lEp nzyotGtzylwwA tyopCpyopyG ty
plns nwlFF ’ipnGtzy [-[-“(-
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zq nwlFFpF+ Fz lww Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF lEp wtyplE- Tq Jp otItop ThC tyGz
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pynwzFtyr –40 zq Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA ty plns nlFp- jsp MlApF opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF
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lF Jpww lF Gsp nwlFF npyGEztoF- YzGtnp GslG Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF lEp yzG
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Regularized Discriminant Analysis on the Vowel Data
•••• •
••••••••••
•••••••
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••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
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Linear Discriminant Analysis

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Coordinate 1 Coordinate 2
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o oooo o o ooo o ooo o o oooooo o o oo ooooooo oo o oo o ooo o oooooo o o oo oo o o
o ooo o o oo ooo o o o o o o
ooo oooooooooooo o oo o
o o o o oo o oo oo oo o o o o oo
oo oo oo oooo oooo ooo oo
oo o o o o oo ooo oo oo oooooo oo oo o o
oo o o
o o oooooooo o ooo o
ooooo oo o ooooo
o
oooo o
oo o o o o o
o o oo o o
-1
o o o o oo o oo o oooo oooo o o o o o o
ooo oooo o oooo
oo oo oo
o oo o
oo o o o oo o o
o
o
ooooo o o ooo o o o oo o oooooooo oooo ooooooo o o
oo o o o o o oo oo o oo o oo ooo o o o
-1
o
o o oo o ooo o ooo
o o o o
oo o
ooo oo ooo oooo oo
oo o o oo oo o o o o o oo o
o oo o oo o o o o oo o
-2
o oo
oo o oo o
o o o o
o o oo o o o oooo o
o o
o o
o
-2
o o oo
o
-3
o
o o ooo
-4 -2 0 2 4 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Coordinate 1 Coordinate 9
QTRIFD 3W7W QzHE CEzupnGtzyF zyGz CltEF zq nlyzytnlw IlEtlGpF- YzGtnp GslG lF
Gsp Elyv zq Gsp nlyzytnlw IlEtlGpF tynEplFpF+ Gsp npyGEztoF mpnzxp wpFF FCEplo zHG-
Ty Gsp wzJpE EtrsG Clypw GspA lCCplE Gz mp FHCpEtxCzFpo+ lyo Gsp nwlFFpF xzFG
nzyqHFpo-
%%[ ?- typlE cpGszoF qzE NwlFFt6nlGtzy
+
+
+
+
QTRIFD 3W8W LwGszHrs Gsp wtyp uztytyr Gsp npyGEztoF op6ypF Gsp otEpnGtzy zq
rEplGpFG npyGEzto FCEplo+ Gsp CEzupnGpo olGl zIpEwlC mpnlHFp zq Gsp nzIlEtlynp
’wpqG Clypw(- jsp otFnEtxtylyG otEpnGtzy xtytxtBpF GstF zIpEwlC qzE RlHFFtly olGl
’EtrsG Clypw(-
QtFspE&F CEzmwpx GspEpqzEp lxzHyGF Gz xlKtxtBtyr Gsp hlAwptrs DHzGtpyG+
lj Ml
xlK W ’?-%4(
l lj bl
zE pDHtIlwpyGwA
xlK lj Ml FHmupnG Gz lj bl ˆ %, ’?-%[(
l
jstF tF l rpypElwtBpo ptrpyIlwHp CEzmwpx+ JtGs l rtIpy mA Gsp wlErpFG

ptrpyIlwHp zq b}0 M- TG tF yzG slEo Gz FszJ ’PKpEntFp ?-%( GslG Gsp zCGtxlw
l0 tF topyGtnlw Gz I0 opÿpo lmzIp- itxtwlEwA zyp nly ÿo Gsp ypKG otEpnGtzy
l= + zEGszrzylw ty b Gz l0 + FHns GslG lj= Ml= .lj= bl= tF xlKtxtBpo: Gsp
FzwHGtzy tF l= ˆ I= + lyo Fz zy- jsp lℓ lEp EpqpEEpo Gz lF otFnEtxtylyG
nzzEotylGpF+ yzG Gz mp nzyqHFpo JtGs otFnEtxtylyG qHynGtzyF- jspA lEp lwFz
EpqpEEpo Gz lF nlyzytnlw IlEtlGpF+ Ftynp ly lwGpEylGtIp opEtIlGtzy zq GspFp
EpFHwGF tF GsEzHrs l nlyzytnlw nzEEpwlGtzy lylwAFtF zq Gsp tyotnlGzE EpFCzyFp
xlGEtK d zy Gsp CEpotnGzE xlGEtK c- jstF wtyp tF CHEFHpo ty ipnGtzy %=-4-
jz FHxxlEtBp Gsp opIpwzCxpyGF Fz qlE9
| RlHFFtly nwlFFt¨nlGtzy JtGs nzxxzy nzIlEtlynpF wploF Gz wtyplE opnt!
Ftzy mzHyolEtpF- NwlFFt¨nlGtzy nly mp lnstpIpo mA FCspEtyr Gsp olGl
JtGs EpFCpnG Gz b+ lyo nwlFFtqAtyr Gz Gsp nwzFpFG npyGEzto ’xzoHwz
wzr πv ( ty Gsp FCspEpo FClnp-
| itynp zywA Gsp EpwlGtIp otFGlynpF Gz Gsp npyGEztoF nzHyG+ zyp nly nzy!
ÿp Gsp olGl Gz Gsp FHmFClnp FClyypo mA Gsp npyGEztoF ty Gsp FCspEpo
FClnp-
| jstF FHmFClnp nly mp qHEGspE opnzxCzFpo tyGz FHnnpFFtIpwA zCGtxlw
FHmFClnpF ty GpEx zq npyGEzto FpClElGtzy- jstF opnzxCzFtGtzy tF topy!
Gtnlw Gz Gsp opnzxCzFtGtzy oHp Gz QtFspE-
?-“ typlE OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF %%fi
LDA and Dimension Reduction on the Vowel Data
0.7
•
0.6
• • • • •
• •
0.5
• •
0.4 Test Data

Train Data
•
• •
• • • • •
0.3
2 4 6 8 10
Dimension
QTRIFD 3W0.W jEltytyr lyo GpFG pEEzE ElGpF qzE Gsp IzJpw olGl+ lF l qHynGtzy
zq Gsp otxpyFtzy zq Gsp otFnEtxtylyG FHmFClnp- Ty GstF nlFp Gsp mpFG pEEzE ElGp tF
qzE otxpyFtzy =- QtrHEp 3-%% FszJF Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF ty GstF FClnp-
jsp EpoHnpo FHmFClnpF slIp mppy xzGtIlGpo lF l olGl EpoHnGtzy ’qzE

ItpJtyr( Gzzw- Nly GspA lwFz mp HFpo qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ lyo JslG tF Gsp
ElGtzylwp¯ NwplEwA GspA nly+ lF ty zHE zEtrtylw opEtIlGtzy: Jp FtxCwA wtxtG
Gsp otFGlynp!Gz!npyGEzto nlwnHwlGtzyF Gz Gsp nszFpy FHmFClnp- Zyp nly FszJ
GslG GstF tF l RlHFFtly nwlFFt¨nlGtzy EHwp JtGs Gsp lootGtzylw EpFGEtnGtzy
GslG Gsp npyGEztoF zq Gsp RlHFFtlyF wtp ty l !otxpyFtzylw FHmFClnp zq ThC -
QtGGtyr FHns l xzopw mA xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo+ lyo Gspy nzyFGEHnGtyr Gsp
CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGtpF HFtyr MlApF& GspzEpx lxzHyGF Gz Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
EHwp opFnEtmpo lmzIp ’PKpEntFp ?-](-
RlHFFtly nwlFFt¨nlGtzy otnGlGpF Gsp wzr πv nzEEpnGtzy qlnGzE ty Gsp otF!
Glynp nlwnHwlGtzy- jsp EplFzy qzE GstF nzEEpnGtzy nly mp Fppy ty QtrHEp ?-–-
jsp xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy ElGp tF mlFpo zy Gsp lEpl zq zIpEwlC mpGJppy Gsp GJz
opyFtGtpF- Tq Gsp πv lEp pDHlw ’txCwtntG ty GslG ¨rHEp(+ Gspy Gsp zCGtxlw
nHG!CztyG tF xtoJlA mpGJppy Gsp CEzupnGpo xplyF- Tq Gsp πv lEp yzG pDHlw+
xzItyr Gsp nHG!CztyG GzJlEo Gsp FxlwwpE nwlFF Jtww txCEzIp Gsp pEEzE ElGp-
LF xpyGtzypo plEwtpE qzE GJz nwlFFpF+ zyp nly opEtIp Gsp wtyplE EHwp HFtyr
OL ’zE lyA zGspE xpGszo(+ lyo Gspy nszzFp Gsp nHG!CztyG Gz xtytxtBp
xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE zIpE Gsp GEltytyr olGl-
LF ly pKlxCwp zq Gsp mpyp¨G zq Gsp EpoHnpo!Elyv EpFGEtnGtzy+ Jp EpGHEy
Gz Gsp IzJpw olGl- jspEp lEp %% nwlFFpF lyo %$ IlEtlmwpF+ lyo spynp %$
CzFFtmwp otxpyFtzyF qzE Gsp nwlFFt¨pE- bp nly nzxCHGp Gsp GEltytyr lyo
GpFG pEEzE ty plns zq GspFp stpElEnstnlw FHmFClnpF: QtrHEp ?-%$ FszJF Gsp
EpFHwGF- QtrHEp ?-%% FszJF Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF qzE Gsp nwlFFt¨pE mlFpo
zy Gsp GJz!otxpyFtzylw OL FzwHGtzy-
jspEp tF l nwzFp nzyypnGtzy mpGJppy QtFspE&F EpoHnpo Elyv otFnEtxtylyG
lylwAFtF lyo EprEpFFtzy zq ly tyotnlGzE EpFCzyFp xlGEtK- TG GHEyF zHG GslG
%%] ?- typlE cpGszoF qzE NwlFFt6nlGtzy
Classification in Reduced Subspace
oooo ooo
o ooo
oo
oo o o oo ooo
oo o o
oo ooo o o oo o
•
o
•
ooo o o o oo
o ooo oooo ooo o o
o • ooo o ooooo
o
ooooo
oo o o oo oo • o
o o o o ooo o
•
o ooooo oo o
•
o oo oo o o oo oo o o o
o oo o o o o
o • o o oo
ooo oo o o o o o
o o oo o o o
oo
oo o o o
o oo o oo oo •oo
oo o o o o oo o
o
oo o o o o
•
ooo o oooo oo
o
oooo oo o
o oo oooo o o ooo o
• o o oooo•o o o
oooo oooo o o oo
•
o ooo
• ooo oo o o o o ooooo o o o o o
o oo o oooo oo o o o
o o ooooo oo oo o •oo oo o o
Canonical Coordinate 2
oo o oo ooo o o oo
oo o o o o o
o o oooooooo o
ooo oo o o o ooo o
o oo oo oooo o oo o o
oo o
ooo o o oo
•
o o o o
o o o o o o o o o
o o•o o o o
o o o oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
• o
• oo
o
o o
o
o
o
o o
o
o
o ooo o o
o oooooooo o ooo
•
o o o•o
o
oo o o o o
oo
o
o o
o
o o o o
o o o o o
oo o o o
•
oo o o o ooo oooo o
oo o o o oo o o o
•
o o o
ooo o o o o
o o oo o
o o
oo o oo o o
o
o
o
o
o o o
o
o o
Canonical Coordinate 1
QTRIFD 3W00W OpntFtzy mzHyolEtpF qzE Gsp IzJpw GEltytyr olGl+ ty Gsp GJz,ot,
xpyFtzylw FHmFClnp FClyypo mA Gsp 6EFG GJz nlyzytnlw IlEtlGpF- YzGp GslG ty
lyA strspE,otxpyFtzylw FHmFClnp+ Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF lEp strspE,otxpyFtzylw
lffyp CwlypF+ lyo nzHwo yzG mp EpCEpFpyGpo lF wtypF-
?-? zrtFGtn hprEpFFtzy %%–
OL lxzHyGF Gz Gsp EprEpFFtzy qzwwzJpo mA ly ptrpy!opnzxCzFtGtzy zq

d— j d- Ty Gsp nlFp zq GJz nwlFFpF+ GspEp tF l Ftyrwp otFnEtxtylyG IlEtlmwp
GslG tF topyGtnlw HC Gz l FnlwlE xHwGtCwtnlGtzy Gz ptGspE zq Gsp nzwHxyF zq d-—
jspFp nzyypnGtzyF lEp opIpwzCpo ty NslCGpE %=- L EpwlGpo qlnG tF GslG tq zyp
GElyFqzExF Gsp zEtrtylw CEpotnGzEF c Gz d+ — Gspy OL HFtyr d — tF topyGtnlw
Gz OL ty Gsp zEtrtylw FClnp ’PKpEntFp ?-“(-
?-? zrtFGtn hprEpFFtzy

jsp wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw lEtFpF qEzx Gsp opFtEp Gz xzopw Gsp CzFGpEtzE
CEzmlmtwtGtpF zq Gsp V nwlFFpF Itl wtyplE qHynGtzyF ty K+ Jstwp lG Gsp Flxp
Gtxp pyFHEtyr GslG GspA FHx Gz zyp lyo Epxlty ty ”$W %fl- jsp xzopw slF
Gsp qzEx
fE’R ˆ %Kc ˆ K(
wzr ˆ β0$ ) β0j K
fE’R ˆ VKc ˆ K(
fE’R ˆ =Kc ˆ K(
wzr ˆ β=$ ) β=j K
fE’R ˆ VKc ˆ K( ’?-%fi(
--
-
fE’R ˆ V } %Kc ˆ K( j
wzr ˆ βWV}0($ ) βV}0 K,
fE’R ˆ VKc ˆ K(
jsp xzopw tF FCpnt¨po ty GpExF zq V } % wzr!zooF zE wzrtG GElyFqzExlGtzyF

’Ep7pnGtyr Gsp nzyFGEltyG GslG Gsp CEzmlmtwtGtpF FHx Gz zyp(- LwGszHrs Gsp
xzopw HFpF Gsp wlFG nwlFF lF Gsp opyzxtylGzE ty Gsp zooF!ElGtzF+ Gsp nsztnp
zq opyzxtylGzE tF lEmtGElEA ty GslG Gsp pFGtxlGpF lEp pDHtIlEtlyG HyopE GstF
nsztnp- L FtxCwp nlwnHwlGtzy FszJF GslG
pKC’βv$ ) βvj K(
fE’R ˆ vKc ˆ K( ˆ (V}0 W v ˆ %W , , , W V } %W
% ) ℓˆ0 pKC’βℓ$ ) βℓj K(
%
fE’R ˆ VKc ˆ K( ˆ (V}0 W ’?-%](
% ) ℓˆ0 pKC’βℓ$ ) βℓj K(
lyo GspA nwplEwA FHx Gz zyp- jz pxCslFtBp Gsp opCpyopynp zy Gsp pyGtEp Cl!
ElxpGpE FpG θ ˆ ·β0$ W β0j W , , , W βWV}0($ W βV}0
j
•+ Jp opyzGp Gsp CEzmlmtwtGtpF
fE’R ˆ vKc ˆ K( ˆ Cv ’K: θ(-
bspy V ˆ =+ GstF xzopw tF pFCpntlwwA FtxCwp+ Ftynp GspEp tF zywA l Ftyrwp
wtyplE qHynGtzy- TG tF JtopwA HFpo ty mtzFGlGtFGtnlw lCCwtnlGtzyF JspEp mtylEA
EpFCzyFpF ’GJz nwlFFpF( znnHE DHtGp qEpDHpyGwA- QzE pKlxCwp+ ClGtpyGF FHEItIp
zE otp+ slIp splEG otFplFp zE yzG+ zE l nzyotGtzy tF CEpFpyG zE lmFpyG-
%=/ ?- typlE cpGszoF qzE NwlFFt6nlGtzy
?-?-0 QtGGtyr zrtFGtn hprEpFFtzy czopwF

zrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopwF lEp HFHlwwA ¨G mA xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo+ HFtyr Gsp
nzyotGtzylw wtvpwtszzo zq R rtIpy c- itynp fE’RKc( nzxCwpGpwA FCpnt¨pF Gsp
nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy+ Gsp xHwGtyzxtlw otFGEtmHGtzy tF lCCEzCEtlGp- jsp
wzr!wtvpwtszzo qzE Y zmFpEIlGtzyF tF
Y
∑
ℓ’θ( ˆ wzr Crt ’Kt : θ(W ’?-%–(
tˆ0
JspEp Cv ’Kt : θ( ˆ fE’R ˆ vKc ˆ Kt : θ(-

bp otFnHFF ty opGltw Gsp GJz!nwlFF nlFp+ Ftynp Gsp lwrzEtGsxF FtxCwtqA
nzyFtopElmwA- TG tF nzyIpytpyG Gz nzop Gsp GJz!nwlFF rt Itl l $.% EpFCzyFp At +
JspEp At ˆ % Jspy rt ˆ %+ lyo At ˆ $ Jspy rt ˆ =- pG C0 ’K: θ( ˆ C’K: θ(+
lyo C= ’K: θ( ˆ % } C’K: θ(- jsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo nly mp JEtGGpy
Y 7
∑ 8
ℓ’β( ˆ At wzr C’Kt : β( ) ’% } At ( wzr’% } C’Kt : β((
tˆ0
Y 7
∑ 8
j
ˆ At β j Kt } wzr’% ) pβ Kt ( , ’?-=$(
tˆ0
SpEp β ˆ ·β0$ W β0 •+ lyo Jp lFFHxp GslG Gsp IpnGzE zq tyCHGF Kt tynwHopF

Gsp nzyFGlyG GpEx % Gz lnnzxxzolGp Gsp tyGpEnpCG-
jz xlKtxtBp Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo+ Jp FpG tGF opEtIlGtIpF Gz BpEz- jspFp FnzEp
pDHlGtzyF lEp
Y
∂ℓ’β( ∑
ˆ Kt ’At } C’Kt : β(( ˆ $W ’?-=%(
∂β tˆ0
Jstns lEp C ) % pDHlGtzyF yzywtyplE ty β- YzGtnp GslG Ftynp Gsp(

(Y ËFG nzxCz!
Y
ypyG zq Kt tF %+ Gsp ËFG FnzEp pDHlGtzy FCpnt¨pF GslG tˆ0 At ˆ tˆ0 C’Kt : β(:
Gsp pKCpnGpo yHxmpE zq nwlFF zypF xlGnspF Gsp zmFpEIpo yHxmpE ’lyo spynp
lwFz nwlFF GJzF-(
jz FzwIp Gsp FnzEp pDHlGtzyF ’?-=%(+ Jp HFp Gsp YpJGzy8hlCsFzy lwrz!
EtGsx+ Jstns EpDHtEpF Gsp Fpnzyo!opEtIlGtIp zE SpFFtly xlGEtK
∑Y
∂ = ℓ’β(
ˆ } Kt Kt j C’Kt : β(’% } C’Kt : β((, ’?-==(
∂β∂β j tˆ0
iGlEGtyr JtGs β Bwo + l Ftyrwp YpJGzy HColGp tF

9 )}0
∂ = ℓ’β( ∂ℓ’β(
β ypk ˆ β Bwo } W ’?-=“(
∂β∂β j ∂β
JspEp Gsp opEtIlGtIpF lEp pIlwHlGpo lG β Bwo -

?-? zrtFGtn hprEpFFtzy %=%
TG tF nzyIpytpyG Gz JEtGp Gsp FnzEp lyo SpFFtly ty xlGEtK yzGlGtzy- pG

A opyzGp Gsp IpnGzE zq At IlwHpF+ c Gsp Y × ’C ) %( xlGEtK zq Kt IlwHpF+
C Gsp IpnGzE zq ¨GGpo CEzmlmtwtGtpF JtGs tGs pwpxpyG C’Kt : β Bwo ( lyo b l
Y × Y otlrzylw xlGEtK zq JptrsGF JtGs tGs otlrzylw pwpxpyG C’Kt : β Bwo (’% }
C’Kt : β Bwo ((- jspy Jp slIp
∂ℓ’β(
ˆ cj ’A } C( ’?-=?(
∂β
=
∂ ℓ’β(
ˆ }cj bc ’?-=4(
∂β∂β j
jsp YpJGzy FGpC tF GsHF
β ypk ˆ β Bwo ) ’cj bc(}0 cj ’A } C(

$ %
ˆ ’cj bc(}0 cj b cβ Bwo ) b}0 ’A } C(
ˆ ’cj bc(}0 cj bB, ’?-=[(
Ty Gsp Fpnzyo lyo GstEo wtyp Jp slIp Ep!pKCEpFFpo Gsp YpJGzy FGpC lF l
JptrsGpo wplFG FDHlEpF FGpC+ JtGs Gsp EpFCzyFp
B ˆ cβ Bwo ) b}0 ’A } C(W ’?-=fi(
FzxpGtxpF vyzJy lF Gsp louHFGpo EpFCzyFp- jspFp pDHlGtzyF rpG FzwIpo Ep!
CplGpowA+ Ftynp lG plns tGpElGtzy C nslyrpF+ lyo spynp Fz ozpF b lyo B-
jstF lwrzEtGsx tF EpqpEEpo Gz lF tGpElGtIpwA EpJptrsGpo wplFG FDHlEpF zE Th i+
Ftynp plns tGpElGtzy FzwIpF Gsp JptrsGpo wplFG FDHlEpF CEzmwpx9
β ypk ← lEr xty’B } cβ(j b’B } cβ(, ’?-=](

β
TG FppxF GslG β ˆ $ tF l rzzo FGlEGtyr IlwHp qzE Gsp tGpElGtIp CEznpoHEp+

lwGszHrs nzyIpErpynp tF ypIpE rHlElyGppo- jACtnlwwA Gsp lwrzEtGsx ozpF
nzyIpErp+ Ftynp Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo tF nzynlIp+ mHG zIpEFszzGtyr nly znnHE-
Ty Gsp ElEp nlFpF GslG Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo opnEplFpF+ FGpC FtBp slwItyr Jtww
rHlElyGpp nzyIpErpynp-
QzE Gsp xHwGtnwlFF nlFp ’V ≥ “( Gsp YpJGzy lwrzEtGsx nly lwFz mp pK!
CEpFFpo lF ly tGpElGtIpwA EpJptrsGpo wplFG FDHlEpF lwrzEtGsx+ mHG JtGs l
IpnGzE zq V }% EpFCzyFpF lyo l yzyotlrzylw JptrsG xlGEtK CpE zmFpEIlGtzy-
jsp wlGGpE CEpnwHopF lyA FtxCwt¨po lwrzEtGsxF+ lyo ty GstF nlFp tG tF yHxpE!
tnlwwA xzEp nzyIpytpyG Gz JzEv JtGs Gsp pKClyopo IpnGzE θ otEpnGwA ’PK!
pEntFp ?-?(- LwGpEylGtIpwA nzzEotylGp!opFnpyG xpGszoF ’ipnGtzy “-]-[( nly
mp HFpo Gz xlKtxtBp Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo pffntpyGwA- jsp h Clnvlrp rwKypR
’QEtpoxly pG lw-+ =$%$( nly ¨G IpEA wlErp wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpxF pq!
¨ntpyGwA+ mzGs ty Y lyo C- LwGszHrs opFtrypo Gz ¨G EprHwlEtBpo xzopwF+
zCGtzyF lwwzJ qzE HyEprHwlEtBpo ¨GF-
zrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopwF lEp HFpo xzFGwA lF l olGl lylwAFtF lyo tyqpE!
pynp Gzzw+ JspEp Gsp rzlw tF Gz HyopEFGlyo Gsp Ezwp zq Gsp tyCHG IlEtlmwpF
%== ?- typlE cpGszoF qzE NwlFFt6nlGtzy
uLM D 3W1W hpFHwGF qEzx l wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy 6G Gz Gsp izHGs LqEtnly splEG
otFplFp olGl-
NzpffntpyG iGo- PEEzE e inzEp

bTyGpEnpCG( }?,%“$ $,–[? }?,=]4
FmC $,$$[ $,$$[ %,$=“
Gzmlnnz $,$]$ $,$=[ “,$“?
wow $,%]4 $,$4fi “,=%–
DlxstFG $,–“– $,==4 ?,%fi]
zmpFtGA !$,$“4 $,$=– }%,%]fi
lwnzszw $,$$% $,$$? $,%“[
lrp $,$?“ $,$%$ ?,%]?
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opÿpo mA q ’K( ˆ $-
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xtytxtBtyr Gsp otFGlynp zq xtFnwlFFt¨po CztyGF Gz Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEA- Tq
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l xtFnwlFFt¨po EpFCzyFp JtGs At ˆ }%- jsp rzlw tF Gz xtytxtBp
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yprlGtIp lyo CEzCzEGtzylw Gz Gsp otFGlynp zq Gsp xtFnwlFFt¨po CztyGF Gz
Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEA opÿpo mA β j K ) β$ ˆ $- jsp rElotpyG ’lFFHxtyr
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Spynp Gsp xtFnwlFFt¨po zmFpEIlGtzyF lEp ItFtGpo ty Fzxp FpDHpynp+ lyo Gsp
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Gsp wzyrpE Gsp Gtxp Gz ÿo tG-
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lyo nAnwpF opIpwzC- jsp nAnwpF nly mp wzyr lyo GspEpqzEp slEo Gz
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ty Gsp zEtrtylw FClnp+ mHG ty l xHns pywlErpo FClnp zmGltypo mA nEplGtyr
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olGl nly mp qzHyo ty Gsp mzzv JpmFtGp UUU!FGlG-FGlyDzEo-poH#PwpxiGlG plEy-
%“] ?- typlE cpGszoF qzE NwlFFt6nlGtzy
jstF tF Clrp %“–
4
MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
4-0 TyGEzoHnGtzy
bp slIp lwEploA xlop HFp zq xzopwF wtyplE ty Gsp tyCHG qplGHEpF+ mzGs qzE
EprEpFFtzy lyo nwlFFt¨nlGtzy- typlE EprEpFFtzy+ wtyplE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF+
wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy lyo FpClElGtyr sACpECwlypF lww EpwA zy l wtyplE xzopw-
TG tF pKGEpxpwA HywtvpwA GslG Gsp GEHp qHynGtzy q ’c( tF lnGHlwwA wtyplE ty
c- Ty EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpxF+ q ’c( ˆ P’d Kc( Jtww GACtnlwwA mp yzywtyplE lyo
yzylootGtIp ty c+ lyo EpCEpFpyGtyr q ’c( mA l wtyplE xzopw tF HFHlwwA l nzy!
IpytpyG+ lyo FzxpGtxpF l ypnpFFlEA+ lCCEzKtxlGtzy- NzyIpytpyG mpnlHFp l
wtyplE xzopw tF plFA Gz tyGpECEpG+ lyo tF Gsp ËFG!zEopE jlAwzE lCCEzKtxl!
Gtzy Gz q ’c(- izxpGtxpF ypnpFFlEA+ mpnlHFp JtGs Y Fxlww lyo#zE C wlErp+
l wtyplE xzopw xtrsG mp lww Jp lEp lmwp Gz ¨G Gz Gsp olGl JtGszHG zIpE¨G!
Gtyr- tvpJtFp ty nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ l wtyplE+ MlApF!zCGtxlw opntFtzy mzHyolEA
txCwtpF GslG Fzxp xzyzGzyp GElyFqzExlGtzy zq fE’d ˆ %Kc( tF wtyplE ty c-
jstF tF typItGlmwA ly lCCEzKtxlGtzy-
Ty GstF nslCGpE lyo Gsp ypKG Jp otFnHFF CzCHwlE xpGszoF qzE xzItyr
mpAzyo wtyplEtGA- jsp nzEp topl ty GstF nslCGpE tF Gz lHrxpyG#EpCwlnp Gsp
IpnGzE zq tyCHGF c JtGs lootGtzylw IlEtlmwpF+ Jstns lEp GElyFqzExlGtzyF zq
c+ lyo Gspy HFp wtyplE xzopwF ty GstF ypJ FClnp zq opEtIpo tyCHG qplGHEpF-
OpyzGp mA sx ’c( 9 ThC 5→ Th Gsp xGs GElyFqzExlGtzy zq c+ x ˆ
%W , , , W X - bp Gspy xzopw
X
∑
q ’c( ˆ βx sx ’c(W ’4-%(
xˆ0
%?/ 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
l wtyplE mlFtF pKClyFtzy ty c- jsp mplHGA zq GstF lCCEzlns tF GslG zynp Gsp
mlFtF qHynGtzyF sx slIp mppy opGpExtypo+ Gsp xzopwF lEp wtyplE ty GspFp
ypJ IlEtlmwpF+ lyo Gsp ¨GGtyr CEznppoF lF mpqzEp-
izxp FtxCwp lyo JtopwA HFpo pKlxCwpF zq Gsp sx lEp Gsp qzwwzJtyr9
| sx ’c( ˆ cx W x ˆ %W , , , W C EpnzIpEF Gsp zEtrtylw wtyplE xzopw-
| sx ’c( ˆ cH= zE sx ’c( ˆ cH cv lwwzJF HF Gz lHrxpyG Gsp tyCHGF JtGs

CzwAyzxtlw GpExF Gz lnstpIp strspE!zEopE jlAwzE pKClyFtzyF- YzGp+
szJpIpE+ GslG Gsp yHxmpE zq IlEtlmwpF rEzJF pKCzypyGtlwwA ty Gsp op!
rEpp zq Gsp CzwAyzxtlw- L qHww DHloElGtn xzopw ty C IlEtlmwpF EpDHtEpF
Z’C= ( FDHlEp lyo nEzFF!CEzoHnG GpExF+ zE xzEp rpypElwwA Z’Co ( qzE l
oprEpp!o CzwAyzxtlw-
A
| sx ’c( ˆ wzr’cH (W cH W , , , CpExtGF zGspE yzywtyplE GElyFqzExlGtzyF
zq Ftyrwp tyCHGF- XzEp rpypElwwA zyp nly HFp FtxtwlE qHynGtzyF tyIzwI!
tyr FpIpElw tyCHGF+ FHns lF sx ’c( ˆ KKcKK-
| sx ’c( ˆ T’ x ≤ cv ı kx (+ ly tyotnlGzE qzE l Eprtzy zq cv - MA

mEplvtyr Gsp Elyrp zq cv HC tyGz Xv FHns yzyzIpEwlCCtyr EprtzyF
EpFHwGF ty l xzopw JtGs l CtpnpJtFp nzyFGlyG nzyGEtmHGtzy qzE cv -
izxpGtxpF Gsp CEzmwpx lG slyo Jtww nlww qzE ClEGtnHwlE mlFtF qHynGtzyF sx +
FHns lF wzrlEtGsxF zE CzJpE qHynGtzyF- XzEp zqGpy+ szJpIpE+ Jp HFp Gsp mlFtF
pKClyFtzyF lF l opItnp Gz lnstpIp xzEp 7pKtmwp EpCEpFpyGlGtzyF qzE q ’c(-
fzwAyzxtlwF lEp ly pKlxCwp zq Gsp wlGGpE+ lwGszHrs GspA lEp wtxtGpo mA
GsptE rwzmlw ylGHEp1GJplvtyr Gsp nzpffntpyGF Gz lnstpIp l qHynGtzylw qzEx
ty zyp Eprtzy nly nlHFp Gsp qHynGtzy Gz 7lC lmzHG xlowA ty EpxzGp EprtzyF-
Ty GstF nslCGpE Jp nzyFtopE xzEp HFpqHw qlxtwtpF zq CtpnpJtFp,CzwAyzxtlwF
lyo FCwtypF GslG lwwzJ qzE wznlw CzwAyzxtlw EpCEpFpyGlGtzyF- bp lwFz otFnHFF
Gsp JlIpwpG mlFpF+ pFCpntlwwA HFpqHw qzE xzopwtyr FtrylwF lyo txlrpF- jspFp
xpGszoF CEzoHnp l otnGtzylEA C nzyFtFGtyr zq GACtnlwwA l IpEA wlErp yHxmpE
KCK zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF+ qlE xzEp Gsly Jp nly lΓzEo Gz ¨G Gz zHE olGl- Lwzyr
JtGs Gsp otnGtzylEA Jp EpDHtEp l xpGszo qzE nzyGEzwwtyr Gsp nzxCwpKtGA
zq zHE xzopw+ HFtyr mlFtF qHynGtzyF qEzx Gsp otnGtzylEA- jspEp lEp GsEpp
nzxxzy lCCEzlnspF9
| hpFGEtnGtzy xpGszoF+ JspEp Jp opntop mpqzEp!slyo Gz wtxtG Gsp nwlFF

zq qHynGtzyF- LootGtItGA tF ly pKlxCwp+ JspEp Jp lFFHxp GslG zHE
xzopw slF Gsp qzEx
C
∑
q ’c( ˆ qH ’cH (
Hˆ0
Xu
C ∑
∑
ˆ βHx sHx ’cH (, ’4-=(
Hˆ0 xˆ0
4-= ftpnpUtFp fzwAyzxtlwF lyo iCwtypF %?%
jsp FtBp zq Gsp xzopw tF wtxtGpo mA Gsp yHxmpE zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF XH

HFpo qzE plns nzxCzypyG qHynGtzy qH -
| ipwpnGtzy xpGszoF+ Jstns lolCGtIpwA Fnly Gsp otnGtzylEA lyo tynwHop

zywA GszFp mlFtF qHynGtzyF sx GslG nzyGEtmHGp Ftryt¨nlyGwA Gz Gsp ¨G zq
Gsp xzopw- SpEp Gsp IlEtlmwp FpwpnGtzy GpnsytDHpF otFnHFFpo ty NslC!
GpE “ lEp HFpqHw- jsp FGlrpJtFp rEppoA lCCEzlnspF FHns lF NLhj+
XLhi lyo mzzFGtyr qlww tyGz GstF nlGprzEA lF Jpww-
| hprHwlEtBlGtzy xpGszoF JspEp Jp HFp Gsp pyGtEp otnGtzylEA mHG Ep!

FGEtnG Gsp nzpffntpyGF- htorp EprEpFFtzy tF l FtxCwp pKlxCwp zq l EprH!
wlEtBlGtzy lCCEzlns+ Jstwp Gsp wlFFz tF mzGs l EprHwlEtBlGtzy lyo Fpwpn!
Gtzy xpGszo- SpEp Jp otFnHFF GspFp lyo xzEp FzCstFGtnlGpo xpGszoF
qzE EprHwlEtBlGtzy-
4-1 ftpnpUtFp fzwAyzxtlwF lyo iCwtypF

bp lFFHxp HyGtw ipnGtzy 4-fi GslG c tF zyp!otxpyFtzylw- L CtpnpJtFp CzwA!
yzxtlw qHynGtzy q ’c( tF zmGltypo mA otItotyr Gsp ozxlty zq c tyGz nzyGtrH!
zHF tyGpEIlwF+ lyo EpCEpFpyGtyr q mA l FpClElGp CzwAyzxtlw ty plns tyGpEIlw-
QtrHEp 4-% FszJF GJz FtxCwp CtpnpJtFp CzwAyzxtlwF- jsp ËFG tF CtpnpJtFp
nzyFGlyG+ JtGs GsEpp mlFtF qHynGtzyF9
s0 ’c( ˆ T’c ı ξ0 (W s= ’c( ˆ T’ξ0 ≤ c ı ξ= (W s˜ ’c( ˆ T’ξ= ≤ c(,
itynp GspFp lEp CzFtGtIp

(˜ zIpE otFuztyG EprtzyF+ Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGp zq
Gsp xzopw q ’c( ˆ xˆ0 βx sx ’c( lxzHyGF Gz β—x ˆ d3x + Gsp xply zq d
ty Gsp xGs Eprtzy-
jsp GzC EtrsG Clypw FszJF l CtpnpJtFp wtyplE ¨G- jsEpp lootGtzylw mlFtF
qHynGtzyF lEp yppopo9 sx)˜ ˆ sx ’c(cW x ˆ %W , , , W “- PKnpCG ty FCpntlw
nlFpF+ Jp JzHwo GACtnlwwA CEpqpE Gsp GstEo Clypw+ Jstns tF lwFz CtpnpJtFp
wtyplE+ mHG EpFGEtnGpo Gz mp nzyGtyHzHF lG Gsp GJz vyzGF- jspFp nzyGtyH!
tGA EpFGEtnGtzyF wplo Gz wtyplE nzyFGEltyGF zy Gsp ClElxpGpEF: qzE pKlxCwp+
q ’ξ0} ( ˆ q ’ξ0) ( txCwtpF GslG β0 ) ξ0 β3 ˆ β= ) ξ0 β4 - Ty GstF nlFp+ Ftynp GspEp
lEp GJz EpFGEtnGtzyF+ Jp pKCpnG Gz rpG mlnv GJz ClElxpGpEF+ wplItyr qzHE qEpp
ClElxpGpEF-
L xzEp otEpnG JlA Gz CEznppo ty GstF nlFp tF Gz HFp l mlFtF GslG tynzECz!
ElGpF Gsp nzyFGEltyGF9
s0 ’c( ˆ %W s= ’c( ˆ cW s˜ ’c( ˆ ’c } ξ0 () W s3 ’c( ˆ ’c } ξ= () W
JspEp G) opyzGpF Gsp CzFtGtIp ClEG- jsp qHynGtzy s˜ tF FszJy ty Gsp wzJpE
EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp 4-%- bp zqGpy CEpqpE FxzzGspE qHynGtzyF+ lyo GspFp
nly mp lnstpIpo mA tynEplFtyr Gsp zEopE zq Gsp wznlw CzwAyzxtlw- QtrHEp 4-=
FszJF l FpEtpF zq CtpnpJtFp!nHmtn CzwAyzxtlwF ¨G Gz Gsp Flxp olGl+ JtGs
%?= 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
Piecewise Constant Piecewise Linear
O O
O O O O O O
O O O O O O
O O O O
O O
OO
O O O
O OO
O O O
O
OOO O OOO O
OO O OO O
O O
O O O O
O O O O
O O O O O
O
O O O O
O O
O O
O O O O O O
O
O O
O
O O O O
O O
O O O O O O
O O O O
O O
O O
ξ0 ξ= ξ0 ξ=
Continuous Piecewise Linear Piecewise-linear Basis Function
O
O O O
O O O
O O
O
OO
O O O
O
OOO O
OO O
O
O O ••
O O O
O
O O
•
•••
O O
O
O O O
’c } ξ0 () •
O
O
O O O ••
O
O
O
O
O •
O •
•••
••
•••
• •
O • • •••• •• •••• • • •• •
ξ0 ξ= ξ0 ξ=
QTRIFD 4W0W jsp GzC wpqG Clypw FszJF l CtpnpJtFp nzyFGlyG qHynGtzy 6G Gz Fzxp
lEGt6ntlw olGl- jsp mEzvpy IpEGtnlw wtypF tyotnlGp Gsp CzFtGtzyF zq Gsp GJz vyzGF
ξ0 lyo ξ= - jsp mwHp nHEIp EpCEpFpyGF Gsp GEHp qHynGtzy+ qEzx Jstns Gsp olGl JpEp
rpypElGpo JtGs RlHFFtly yztFp- jsp Epxltytyr GJz ClypwF FszJ CtpnpJtFp wty,
plE qHynGtzyF 6G Gz Gsp Flxp olGl1Gsp GzC EtrsG HyEpFGEtnGpo+ lyo Gsp wzJpE wpqG
EpFGEtnGpo Gz mp nzyGtyHzHF lG Gsp vyzGF- jsp wzJpE EtrsG Clypw FszJF l CtpnpJtFp8
wtyplE mlFtF qHynGtzy+ s2 ’c( ˆ ’c } ξ0 () + nzyGtyHzHF lG ξ0 - jsp mwlnv CztyGF
tyotnlGp Gsp FlxCwp pIlwHlGtzyF s2 ’Kt (W t ˆ %W , , , W Y -
4-= ftpnpUtFp fzwAyzxtlwF lyo iCwtypF %?“
Piecewise Cubic Polynomials
Discontinuous Continuous
O O
O O O O O O
O O O O O O
O O O O O O
OO O O
O OO O O
O
OOO O OOO O
OO O OO O
O O O O
O O
O O O O O
O O O O O O
O
O O O O
O O
O O O O O O
O
O O
O
O O O O O O
O O O O O O
O O O O
O O
O O
ξ0 ξ= ξ0 ξ=
Continuous First Derivative Continuous Second Derivative
O O
O O O O O O
O O O O O O
O O O O O O
OO O O
O OO O O
O
OOO O OOO O
OO O OO O
O O O O
O O O O
O O O O
O O O O O
O
O O O O
O O
O O O O O O
O
O O
O
O O O O O O
O O O O O O
O O O O
O O
O O
ξ0 ξ= ξ0 ξ=
QTRIFD 4W1W L FpEtpF zq CtpnpJtFp,nHmtn CzwAyzxtlwF+ JtGs tynEplFtyr zEopEF zq
nzyGtyHtGA-
tynEplFtyr zEopEF zq nzyGtyHtGA lG Gsp vyzGF- jsp qHynGtzy ty Gsp wzJpE

EtrsG Clypw tF nzyGtyHzHF+ lyo slF nzyGtyHzHF ËFG lyo Fpnzyo opEtIlGtIpF
lG Gsp vyzGF- TG tF vyzJy lF l nHmtn FCwtyp- PyqzEntyr zyp xzEp zEopE zq
nzyGtyHtGA JzHwo wplo Gz l rwzmlw nHmtn CzwAyzxtlw- TG tF yzG slEo Gz FszJ
’PKpEntFp 4-%( GslG Gsp qzwwzJtyr mlFtF EpCEpFpyGF l nHmtn FCwtyp JtGs vyzGF
lG ξ0 lyo ξ= 9
s0 ’c( ˆ %W s˜ ’c( ˆ c = W s4 ’c( ˆ ’c } ξ0 (˜) W

’4-“(
s= ’c( ˆ cW s3 ’c( ˆ c ˜ W s[ ’c( ˆ ’c } ξ= (˜) ,
jspEp lEp FtK mlFtF qHynGtzyF nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz l FtK!otxpyFtzylw wtyplE FClnp

zq qHynGtzyF- L DHtnv nspnv nzyËxF Gsp ClElxpGpE nzHyG9 ’“ EprtzyF(×’?
ClElxpGpEF CpE Eprtzy( }’= vyzGF(×’“ nzyFGEltyGF CpE vyzG(ˆ [-
%?? 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
XzEp rpypElwwA+ ly zEopE!X FCwtyp JtGs vyzGF ξH W u ˆ %W , , , W V tF l

CtpnpJtFp!CzwAyzxtlw zq zEopE X + lyo slF nzyGtyHzHF opEtIlGtIpF HC Gz
zEopE X } =- L nHmtn FCwtyp slF X ˆ ?- Ty qlnG Gsp CtpnpJtFp!nzyFGlyG
qHynGtzy ty QtrHEp 4-% tF ly zEopE!% FCwtyp+ Jstwp Gsp nzyGtyHzHF Ctpnp!
JtFp wtyplE qHynGtzy tF ly zEopE!= FCwtyp- tvpJtFp Gsp rpypElw qzEx qzE Gsp
GEHynlGpo!CzJpE mlFtF FpG JzHwo mp
sH ’c( ˆ c H}0 W u ˆ %W , , , W XW
}0
sX )ℓ ’c( ˆ ’c } ξℓ (X
) W ℓ ˆ %W , , , W V,
TG tF nwltxpo GslG nHmtn FCwtypF lEp Gsp wzJpFG!zEopE FCwtyp qzE Jstns Gsp
vyzG!otFnzyGtyHtGA tF yzG ItFtmwp Gz Gsp sHxly pAp- jspEp tF Fpwozx lyA
rzzo EplFzy Gz rz mpAzyo nHmtn!FCwtypF+ HywpFF zyp tF tyGpEpFGpo ty FxzzGs
opEtIlGtIpF- Ty CElnGtnp Gsp xzFG JtopwA HFpo zEopEF lEp X ˆ %W = lyo ?-
jspFp ¨Kpo!vyzG FCwtypF lEp lwFz vyzJy lF EprEpFFtzy FCwtypF- Zyp yppoF
Gz FpwpnG Gsp zEopE zq Gsp FCwtyp+ Gsp yHxmpE zq vyzGF lyo GsptE CwlnpxpyG-
Zyp FtxCwp lCCEzlns tF Gz ClElxpGpEtBp l qlxtwA zq FCwtypF mA Gsp yHxmpE
zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF zE oprEppF zq qEppozx+ lyo slIp Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF Kt op!
GpExtyp Gsp CzFtGtzyF zq Gsp vyzGF- QzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp pKCEpFFtzy mFbK+oD16(
ty h rpypElGpF l mlFtF xlGEtK zq nHmtn!FCwtyp qHynGtzyF pIlwHlGpo lG Gsp Y
zmFpEIlGtzyF ty K+ JtGs Gsp fi } “ ˆ ?0 tyGpEtzE vyzGF lG Gsp lCCEzCEtlGp CpE!
npyGtwpF zq K ’=$W ?$W [$ lyo ]$Gs-( Zyp nly mp xzEp pKCwtntG+ szJpIpE: mFbK+
oprEpp1%+ vyzGF 1 nb$-=+ $-3+ $-[(( rpypElGpF l mlFtF qzE wtyplE FCwtypF+
JtGs GsEpp tyGpEtzE vyzGF+ lyo EpGHEyF ly Y × ? xlGEtK-
itynp Gsp FClnp zq FCwtyp qHynGtzyF zq l ClEGtnHwlE zEopE lyo vyzG FpDHpynp
tF l IpnGzE FClnp+ GspEp lEp xlyA pDHtIlwpyG mlFpF qzE EpCEpFpyGtyr Gspx
’uHFG lF GspEp lEp qzE zEotylEA CzwAyzxtlwF-( bstwp Gsp GEHynlGpo CzJpE
mlFtF tF nzynpCGHlwwA FtxCwp+ tG tF yzG Gzz lGGElnGtIp yHxpEtnlwwA9 CzJpEF zq
wlErp yHxmpEF nly wplo Gz FpIpEp EzHyotyr CEzmwpxF- jsp M,FCwtyp mlFtF+
opFnEtmpo ty Gsp LCCpyotK Gz GstF nslCGpE+ lwwzJF qzE pffntpyG nzxCHGlGtzyF
pIpy Jspy Gsp yHxmpE zq vyzGF V tF wlErp-
4-1-0 dlGHElw NHmtn iCwtypF

bp vyzJ GslG Gsp mpslItzE zq CzwAyzxtlwF ¨G Gz olGl GpyoF Gz mp pEElGtn
yplE Gsp mzHyolEtpF+ lyo pKGElCzwlGtzy nly mp olyrpEzHF- jspFp CEzmwpxF
lEp pKlnpEmlGpo JtGs FCwtypF- jsp CzwAyzxtlwF ¨G mpAzyo Gsp mzHyolEA
vyzGF mpslIp pIpy xzEp JtwowA Gsly Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr rwzmlw CzwAyzxtlwF
ty GslG Eprtzy- jstF nly mp nzyIpytpyGwA FHxxlEtBpo ty GpExF zq Gsp CztyG!
JtFp IlEtlynp zq FCwtyp qHynGtzyF ¨G mA wplFG FDHlEpF ’Fpp Gsp pKlxCwp ty Gsp
ypKG FpnGtzy qzE opGltwF zy GspFp IlEtlynp nlwnHwlGtzyF(- QtrHEp 4-“ nzxClEpF
0 L nHmtn FCwtyp JtGs qzHE vyzGF tF ptrsG!otxpyFtzylw- jsp mFb( qHynGtzy zxtGF mA
opqlHwG Gsp nzyFGlyG GpEx ty Gsp mlFtF) Ftynp GpExF wtvp GstF lEp GACtnlwwA tynwHopo JtGs
zGspE GpExF ty Gsp xzopw-
4-= ftpnpUtFp fzwAyzxtlwF lyo iCwtypF %?4
0.6
Global Linear
Global Cubic Polynomial
Cubic Spline - 2 knots
0.5
Natural Cubic Spline - 6 knots
Pointwise Variances
0.4
•
0.3 ••
•
0.2
•••• •
• • •••• ••
•• • ••••• •• • ••
••• •• • • •• • •• • •
•••• • ••• •• • •• •
0.1
•• • • •• •
• •• • • ••• •• •• • • •
• ••••••• • •• • •• •• •• • •• •
• •
•• •••••
••••• •• •• ••• • •• • •• •••• • •• •• •
••
•• •
•
•••••• • •• • •• •••• • •• •• • •
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
QTRIFD 4W2W fztyGJtFp IlEtlynp nHEIpF qzE qzHE ot;pEpyG xzopwF+ JtGs c nzy,
FtFGtyr zq 4/ CztyGF oElJy lG Elyozx qEzx k ”/W %7+ lyo ly lFFHxpo pEEzE xzopw
JtGs nzyFGlyG IlEtlynp- jsp wtyplE lyo nHmtn CzwAyzxtlw 6GF slIp GJz lyo qzHE
oprEppF zq qEppozx+ EpFCpnGtIpwA+ Jstwp Gsp nHmtn FCwtyp lyo ylGHElw nHmtn FCwtyp
plns slIp FtK oprEppF zq qEppozx- jsp nHmtn FCwtyp slF GJz vyzGF lG /,““ lyo /,[[+
Jstwp Gsp ylGHElw FCwtyp slF mzHyolEA vyzGF lG /,% lyo /,–+ lyo qzHE tyGpEtzE vyzGF
HytqzExwA FClnpo mpGJppy Gspx-
Gsp CztyGJtFp IlEtlynpF qzE l IlEtpGA zq otΓpEpyG xzopwF- jsp pKCwzFtzy zq

Gsp IlEtlynp yplE Gsp mzHyolEtpF tF nwplE+ lyo typItGlmwA tF JzEFG qzE nHmtn
FCwtypF-
L ylGHElw nHmtn FCwtyp looF lootGtzylw nzyFGEltyGF+ ylxpwA GslG Gsp qHyn!
Gtzy tF wtyplE mpAzyo Gsp mzHyolEA vyzGF- jstF qEppF HC qzHE oprEppF zq
qEppozx ’GJz nzyFGEltyGF plns ty mzGs mzHyolEA EprtzyF(+ Jstns nly mp
FCpyG xzEp CEz¨GlmwA mA FCEtyvwtyr xzEp vyzGF ty Gsp tyGpEtzE Eprtzy- jstF
GElopzΓ tF twwHFGElGpo ty GpExF zq IlEtlynp ty QtrHEp 4-“- jspEp Jtww mp l
CEtnp Clto ty mtlF yplE Gsp mzHyolEtpF+ mHG lFFHxtyr Gsp qHynGtzy tF wty!
plE yplE Gsp mzHyolEtpF ’JspEp Jp slIp wpFF tyqzExlGtzy lyAJlA( tF zqGpy
nzyFtopEpo EplFzylmwp-
L ylGHElw nHmtn FCwtyp JtGs V vyzGF tF EpCEpFpyGpo mA V mlFtF qHynGtzyF-
Zyp nly FGlEG qEzx l mlFtF qzE nHmtn FCwtypF+ lyo opEtIp Gsp EpoHnpo ml!
FtF mA txCzFtyr Gsp mzHyolEA nzyFGEltyGF- QzE pKlxCwp+ FGlEGtyr qEzx Gsp
GEHynlGpo CzJpE FpEtpF mlFtF opFnEtmpo ty ipnGtzy 4-=+ Jp lEEtIp lG ’PKpE!
ntFp 4-?(9
Y0 ’c( ˆ %W Y= ’c( ˆ cW Yv)= ’c( ˆ ov ’c( } oV}0 ’c(W ’4-?(

%?[ 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
JspEp
’c } ξv (˜) } ’c } ξV (˜)
ov ’c( ˆ , ’4-4(
ξV } ξv
Plns zq GspFp mlFtF qHynGtzyF nly mp Fppy Gz slIp BpEz Fpnzyo lyo GstEo
opEtIlGtIp qzE c ≥ ξV -
4-1-1 PKlxCwp9 izHGs LqEtnly SplEG OtFplFp ’NzyGtyHpo(

Ty ipnGtzy ?-?-= Jp ¨G wtyplE wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopwF Gz Gsp izHGs LqEtnly
splEG otFplFp olGl- SpEp Jp pKCwzEp yzywtyplEtGtpF ty Gsp qHynGtzyF HFtyr
ylGHElw FCwtypF- jsp qHynGtzylw qzEx zq Gsp xzopw tF
wzrtG”fE’nsoKc(fl ˆ θ$ ) s0 ’c0 (j θ0 ) s= ’c= (j θ= ) ± ± ± ) sC ’cC (j θC W ’4-[(
JspEp plns zq Gsp θH lEp IpnGzEF zq nzpffntpyGF xHwGtCwAtyr GsptE lFFzntlGpo
IpnGzE zq ylGHElw FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF sH -
bp HFp qzHE ylGHElw FCwtyp mlFpF qzE plns GpEx ty Gsp xzopw- QzE pKlxCwp+
JtGs c0 EpCEpFpyGtyr FmC+ s0 ’c0 ( tF l mlFtF nzyFtFGtyr zq qzHE mlFtF qHyn!
GtzyF- jstF lnGHlwwA txCwtpF GsEpp ElGspE Gsly GJz tyGpEtzE vyzGF ’nszFpy lG
HytqzEx DHlyGtwpF zq FmC(+ CwHF GJz mzHyolEA vyzGF lG Gsp pKGEpxpF zq Gsp
olGl+ Ftynp Jp pKnwHop Gsp nzyFGlyG GpEx qEzx plns zq Gsp sH -
itynp DlxstFG tF l GJz!wpIpw qlnGzE+ tG tF nzopo mA l FtxCwp mtylEA zE
oHxxA IlEtlmwp+ lyo tF lFFzntlGpo JtGs l Ftyrwp nzpffntpyG ty Gsp ¨G zq Gsp
xzopw-
XzEp nzxClnGwA Jp nly nzxmtyp lww C IpnGzEF zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF ’lyo
Gsp nzyFGlyG GpEx( tyGz zyp mtr IpnGzE s’c(+ lyo Gspy (Gsp xzopw tF FtxCwA
C
s’c(j θ+ JtGs GzGlw yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF oq ˆ % ) Hˆ0 oqH + Gsp FHx zq
Gsp ClElxpGpEF ty plns nzxCzypyG GpEx- Plns mlFtF qHynGtzy tF pIlwHlGpo
lG plns zq Gsp Y FlxCwpF+ EpFHwGtyr ty l Y × oq mlFtF xlGEtK S- LG GstF
CztyG Gsp xzopw tF wtvp lyA zGspE wtyplE wzrtFGtn xzopw+ lyo Gsp lwrzEtGsxF
opFnEtmpo ty ipnGtzy ?-?-% lCCwA-
bp nlEEtpo zHG l mlnvJlEo FGpCJtFp opwpGtzy CEznpFF+ oEzCCtyr GpExF
qEzx GstF xzopw Jstwp CEpFpEItyr Gsp rEzHC FGEHnGHEp zq plns GpEx+ ElGspE
Gsly oEzCCtyr zyp nzpffntpyG lG l Gtxp- jsp LTN FGlGtFGtn ’ipnGtzy fi-4( JlF
HFpo Gz oEzC GpExF+ lyo lww Gsp GpExF Epxltytyr ty Gsp ÿlw xzopw JzHwo
nlHFp LTN Gz tynEplFp tq opwpGpo qEzx Gsp xzopw ’Fpp jlmwp 4-%(- QtrHEp 4-?
FszJF l CwzG zq Gsp ÿlw xzopw FpwpnGpo mA Gsp FGpCJtFp EprEpFFtzy- jsp
qHynGtzyF otFCwlApo lEp q—H ’cH ( ˆ sH ’cH (j θ—H qzE plns IlEtlmwp cH - jsp
nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK NzI’θ( — ˆ : tF pFGtxlGpo mA : — ˆ ’Sj bS(}0 + JspEp b
tF Gsp otlrzylw JptrsG xlGEtK qEzx Gsp wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy- Spynp IH ’cH ( ˆ
alE”q—H ’cH (fl ˆ sH ’cH (j :
— HH sH ’cH ( tF Gsp CztyGJtFp IlEtlynp qHynGtzy zq q—H +
— —
JspEp NzI’θH ( ˆ :HH tF Gsp lCCEzCEtlGp FHm!xlGEtK zq :- — jsp Fslopo Eprtzy
A
ty plns Clypw tF opÿpo mA q—H ’cH ( ± = IH ’cH (-
jsp LTN FGlGtFGtn tF FwtrsGwA xzEp rpypEzHF Gsly Gsp wtvpwtszzo!ElGtz GpFG
’opItlynp GpFG(- MzGs FmC lyo zmpFtGA lEp tynwHopo ty GstF xzopw+ Jstwp
4-= ftpnpUtFp fzwAyzxtlwF lyo iCwtypF %?fi
8
4
O1’hzmlnnz(
6
O1’FmC(
2
4
2
0
0
-2
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

FmC Gzmlnnz
4
4
O1’OlastFh(
2
2
O1’wow(
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Absent Present
wow DlxstFG
2
6
O1’zmpFthA(
0
4
O1’lrp(
-2
2
-4
0
-6
-2
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 20 30 40 50 60
zmpFtGA lrp
QTRIFD 4W3W QtGGpo ylGHElw,FCwtyp qHynGtzyF qzE plns zq Gsp GpExF ty Gsp 6ylw
xzopw FpwpnGpo mA Gsp FGpCJtFp CEznpoHEp- TynwHopo lEp CztyGJtFp FGlyolEo,pEEzE
mlyoF- jsp EHr CwzG lG Gsp mlFp zq plns 6rHEp tyotnlGpF Gsp wznlGtzy zq plns zq Gsp
FlxCwp IlwHpF qzE GslG IlEtlmwp ’utGGpEpo Gz mEplv GtpF(-
%?] 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
uLM D 4W0W Qtylw wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw+ lqGpE FGpCJtFp opwpGtzy zq ylGHElw
FCwtypF GpExF- jsp nzwHxy wlmpwpo 2 hj5 tF Gsp wtvpwtszzo,ElGtz GpFG FGlGtFGtn Jspy
GslG GpEx tF opwpGpo qEzx Gsp xzopw+ lyo tF Gsp nslyrp ty opItlynp qEzx Gsp qHww
xzopw ’wlmpwpo 2yzyp5(-
jpExF Oq OpItlynp LTN hj f!IlwHp

yzyp ?4]-$– 4$=-$–
FmC ? ?[fi-%[ 4$“-%[ –-$fi[ $-$4–
Rzmlnnz ? ?fi$-?] 4$[-?] %=-“]fi $-$%4
wow ? ?fi=-“– 4$]-“– %?-“$fi $-$$[
qlKstFR % ?fi–-?? 4=%-?? =%-“4[ $-$$$
zmpFtRA ? ?[[-=? 4$=-=? ]-%?fi $-$][
lrp ? ?]%-][ 4%fi-][ =“-fi[] $-$$$
GspA JpEp yzG ty Gsp wtyplE xzopw- jsp ¨rHEp pKCwltyF JsA+ Ftynp GsptE
nzyGEtmHGtzyF lEp tyspEpyGwA yzywtyplE- jspFp pΓpnGF lG ËFG xlA nzxp lF
l FHECEtFp+ mHG ly pKCwlylGtzy wtpF ty Gsp ylGHEp zq Gsp EpGEzFCpnGtIp olGl-
jspFp xplFHEpxpyGF JpEp xlop FzxpGtxp lqGpE Gsp ClGtpyGF FHΓpEpo l
splEG lGGlnv+ lyo ty xlyA nlFpF GspA slo lwEploA mpyp¨Gpo qEzx l splwGstpE
otpG lyo wtqpFGAwp+ spynp Gsp lCClEpyG tynEplFp ty EtFv lG wzJ IlwHpF qzE
zmpFtGA lyo FmC- jlmwp 4-% FszJF l FHxxlEA zq Gsp FpwpnGpo xzopw-
4-1-“ PKlxCwp9 fszypxp hpnzrytGtzy

Ty GstF pKlxCwp Jp HFp FCwtypF Gz EpoHnp 7pKtmtwtGA ElGspE Gsly tynEplFp tG:
Gsp lCCwtnlGtzy nzxpF HyopE Gsp rpypElw splotyr zq qHynGtzylw xzopwtyr- Ty
Gsp GzC Clypw zq QtrHEp 4-4 lEp otFCwlApo l FlxCwp zq %4 wzr!CpEtzozrElxF
qzE plns zq Gsp GJz CszypxpF ˜ll˙ lyo ˜lz˙ xplFHEpo lG =4[ qEpDHpyntpF-
jsp rzlw tF Gz HFp FHns olGl Gz nwlFFtqA l FCzvpy Cszypxp- jspFp GJz
CszypxpF JpEp nszFpy mpnlHFp GspA lEp otffnHwG Gz FpClElGp-
jsp tyCHG qplGHEp tF l IpnGzE K zq wpyrGs =4[+ Jstns Jp nly Gstyv zq lF
l IpnGzE zq pIlwHlGtzyF zq l qHynGtzy c’q ( zIpE l rEto zq qEpDHpyntpF q - Ty
EplwtGA GspEp tF l nzyGtyHzHF lylwzr Ftrylw Jstns tF l qHynGtzy zq qEpDHpynA+
lyo Jp slIp l FlxCwpo IpEFtzy zq tG-
jsp rElA wtypF ty Gsp wzJpE Clypw zq QtrHEp 4-4 FszJ Gsp nzpffntpyGF zq
l wtyplE wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw ¨G mA xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo Gz l GEltytyr
FlxCwp zq %$$$ oElJy qEzx Gsp GzGlw zq [–4 ˜ll˙F lyo %$== ˜lz˙F- jsp
nzpffntpyGF lEp lwFz CwzGGpo lF l qHynGtzy zq qEpDHpynA+ lyo ty qlnG Jp nly
Gstyv zq Gsp xzopw ty GpExF zq tGF nzyGtyHzHF nzHyGpEClEG
∫
fE’llKc(
wzr ˆ c’q (β’q (oqW ’4-fi(
fE’lzKc(
4-= ftpnpUtFp fzwAyzxtlwF lyo iCwtypF %?–
Phoneme Examples
25
aa
ao
20
Log-periodogram
15
10
5
0
0 50 100 150 200 250
Frequency
Phoneme Classification: Raw and Restricted Logistic Regression

0.4
Logistic Regression Coefficients
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
0 50 100 150 200 250
Frequency
QTRIFD 4W4W jsp GzC Clypw otFCwlAF Gsp wzr,CpEtzozrElx lF l qHynGtzy zq qEp,
DHpynA qzE %4 pKlxCwpF plns zq Gsp CszypxpF 2ll5 lyo 2lz5 FlxCwpo qEzx l GzGlw
zq [–4 2ll5F lyo %/== 2lz5F- Plns wzr,CpEtzozrElx tF xplFHEpo lG =4[ HytqzExwA
FClnpo qEpDHpyntpF- jsp wzJpE Clypw FszJF Gsp nzpffntpyGF ’lF l qHynGtzy zq qEp,
DHpynA( zq l wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy 6G Gz Gsp olGl mA xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo+ HFtyr Gsp
=4[ wzr,CpEtzozrElx IlwHpF lF tyCHGF- jsp nzpffntpyGF lEp EpFGEtnGpo Gz mp FxzzGs
ty Gsp Epo nHEIp+ lyo lEp HyEpFGEtnGpo ty Gsp ulrrpo rElA nHEIp-
%4/ 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
Jstns Jp lCCEzKtxlGp mA
=4[
∑ =4[
∑
c’qH (β’qH ( ˆ KH βH , ’4-](
Hˆ0 Hˆ0
jsp nzpffntpyGF nzxCHGp l nzyGElFG qHynGtzylw+ lyo Jtww slIp lCCEpntlmwp

IlwHpF ty EprtzyF zq qEpDHpynA JspEp Gsp wzr!CpEtzozrElxF otΓpE mpGJppy
Gsp GJz nwlFFpF-
jsp rElA nHEIpF lEp IpEA EzHrs- itynp Gsp tyCHG FtrylwF slIp qltEwA FGEzyr
CzFtGtIp lHGznzEEpwlGtzy+ GstF EpFHwGF ty yprlGtIp lHGznzEEpwlGtzy ty Gsp nz!
pffntpyGF- Ty lootGtzy Gsp FlxCwp FtBp pΓpnGtIpwA CEzItopF zywA qzHE zmFpE!
IlGtzyF CpE nzpffntpyG-
LCCwtnlGtzyF FHns lF GstF CpExtG l ylGHElw EprHwlEtBlGtzy- bp qzEnp Gsp
nzpffntpyGF Gz IlEA FxzzGswA lF l qHynGtzy zq qEpDHpynA- jsp Epo nHEIp ty Gsp
wzJpE Clypw zq QtrHEp 4-4 FszJF FHns l FxzzGs nzpffntpyG nHEIp ¨G Gz GspFp
olGl- bp Fpp GslG Gsp wzJpE qEpDHpyntpF zΓpE Gsp xzFG otFnEtxtylGzEA CzJpE-
YzG zywA ozpF Gsp FxzzGstyr lwwzJ plFtpE tyGpECEpGlGtzy zq Gsp nzyGElFG+ tG
lwFz CEzoHnpF l xzEp lnnHElGp nwlFFt¨pE9
hlJ hprHwlEtBpo
jEltytyr pEEzE $-$]$ $-%]4
jpFG pEEzE $-=44 $-%4]
jsp FxzzGs Epo nHEIp JlF zmGltypo GsEzHrs l IpEA FtxCwp HFp zq ylGHElw
nHmtn FCwtypF- bp
(Xnly EpCEpFpyG Gsp nzpffntpyG qHynGtzy lF ly pKClyFtzy zq
FCwtypF β’q ( ˆ xˆ0 sx ’q (θx - Ty CElnGtnp GstF xplyF GslG β ˆ Sθ JspEp+
S tF l C × X mlFtF xlGEtK zq ylGHElw nHmtn FCwtypF+ opÿpo zy Gsp FpG zq
qEpDHpyntpF- SpEp Jp HFpo X ˆ %= mlFtF qHynGtzyF+ JtGs vyzGF HytqzExwA
Cwlnpo zIpE Gsp tyGprpEF %W =W , , , W =4[ EpCEpFpyGtyr Gsp qEpDHpyntpF- itynp
Kj β ˆ Kj Sθ+ Jp nly FtxCwA EpCwlnp Gsp tyCHG qplGHEpF K mA GsptE ¨wGpEpo
IpEFtzyF K{ ˆ Sj K+ lyo ¨G θ mA wtyplE wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy zy Gsp K{ - jsp
— ( ˆ s’q (j θ-
Epo nHEIp tF GsHF β’q —
4-“ QtwGpEtyr lyo QplGHEp PKGElnGtzy

Ty Gsp CEpItzHF pKlxCwp+ Jp nzyFGEHnGpo l C × X mlFtF xlGEtK S+ lyo Gspy
GElyFqzExpo zHE qplGHEpF K tyGz ypJ qplGHEpF K{ ˆ Sj K- jspFp ¨wGpEpo
IpEFtzyF zq Gsp qplGHEpF JpEp Gspy HFpo lF tyCHGF tyGz l wplEytyr CEznpoHEp9
ty Gsp CEpItzHF pKlxCwp+ GstF JlF wtyplE wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy-
fEpCEznpFFtyr zq strs!otxpyFtzylw qplGHEpF tF l IpEA rpypElw lyo CzJ!
pEqHw xpGszo qzE txCEzItyr Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq l wplEytyr lwrzEtGsx- jsp
CEpCEznpFFtyr yppo yzG mp wtyplE lF tG JlF lmzIp+ mHG nly mp l rpypElw
4-? ixzzGstyr iCwtypF %4%
’yzywtyplE( qHynGtzy zq Gsp qzEx K{ ˆ r’K(- jsp opEtIpo qplGHEpF K{ nly

Gspy mp HFpo lF tyCHGF tyGz lyA ’wtyplE zE yzywtyplE( wplEytyr CEznpoHEp-
QzE pKlxCwp+ qzE Ftrylw zE txlrp EpnzrytGtzy l CzCHwlE lCCEzlns tF Gz ËFG
GElyFqzEx Gsp ElJ qplGHEpF Itl l JlIpwpG GElyFqzEx K{ ˆ Sj K ’ipnGtzy 4-–(
lyo Gspy HFp Gsp qplGHEpF K{ lF tyCHGF tyGz l ypHElw ypGJzEv ’NslCGpE %%(-
blIpwpGF lEp pΓpnGtIp ty nlCGHEtyr otFnEpGp uHxCF zE porpF+ lyo Gsp ypHElw
ypGJzEv tF l CzJpEqHw Gzzw qzE nzyFGEHnGtyr yzywtyplE qHynGtzyF zq GspFp
qplGHEpF qzE CEpotnGtyr Gsp GlErpG IlEtlmwp- MA HFtyr ozxlty vyzJwporp
Gz nzyFGEHnG lCCEzCEtlGp qplGHEpF+ zyp nly zqGpy txCEzIp HCzy l wplEytyr
xpGszo GslG slF zywA Gsp ElJ qplGHEpF K lG tGF otFCzFlw-
4-? ixzzGstyr iCwtypF

SpEp Jp otFnHFF l FCwtyp mlFtF xpGszo GslG lIztoF Gsp vyzG FpwpnGtzy CEzm!
wpx nzxCwpGpwA mA HFtyr l xlKtxlw FpG zq vyzGF- jsp nzxCwpKtGA zq Gsp ¨G
tF nzyGEzwwpo mA EprHwlEtBlGtzy- NzyFtopE Gsp qzwwzJtyr CEzmwpx9 lxzyr lww
qHynGtzyF q ’K( JtGs GJz nzyGtyHzHF opEtIlGtIpF+ ÿo zyp GslG xtytxtBpF Gsp
CpylwtBpo EpFtoHlw FHx zq FDHlEpF
∑Y ∫
hii’qW λ( ˆ ·At } q ’Kt (•= ) λ ·q ′′ ’G(•= oGW ’4-–(
tˆ0
JspEp λ tF l ¨Kpo FxzzGstyr ClElxpGpE- jsp ËFG GpEx xplFHEpF nwzFpypFF

Gz Gsp olGl+ Jstwp Gsp Fpnzyo GpEx CpylwtBpF nHEIlGHEp ty Gsp qHynGtzy+ lyo
λ pFGlmwtFspF l GElopzΓ mpGJppy Gsp GJz- jJz FCpntlw nlFpF lEp9
λ ˆ $ 9 q nly mp lyA qHynGtzy GslG tyGpECzwlGpF Gsp olGl-
λ ˆ ∞ 9 Gsp FtxCwp wplFG FDHlEpF wtyp ¨G+ Ftynp yz Fpnzyo opEtIlGtIp nly
mp GzwpElGpo-
jspFp IlEA qEzx IpEA EzHrs Gz IpEA FxzzGs+ lyo Gsp szCp tF GslG λ ∈ ’$W ∞(
tyopKpF ly tyGpEpFGtyr nwlFF zq qHynGtzyF ty mpGJppy-
jsp nEtGpEtzy ’4-–( tF opÿpo zy ly tyÿtGp!otxpyFtzylw qHynGtzy FClnp1
ty qlnG+ l izmzwpI FClnp zq qHynGtzyF qzE Jstns Gsp Fpnzyo GpEx tF opÿpo-
hpxlEvlmwA+ tG nly mp FszJy GslG ’4-–( slF ly pKCwtntG+ ÿtGp!otxpyFtzylw+
HytDHp xtytxtBpE Jstns tF l ylGHElw nHmtn FCwtyp JtGs vyzGF lG Gsp HytDHp
IlwHpF zq Gsp Kt W t ˆ %W , , , W Y ’PKpEntFp 4-fi(- LG qlnp IlwHp tG FppxF GslG
Gsp qlxtwA tF FGtww zIpE!ClElxpGEtBpo+ Ftynp GspEp lEp lF xlyA lF Y vyzGF+
Jstns txCwtpF Y oprEppF zq qEppozx- SzJpIpE+ Gsp CpylwGA GpEx GElyFwlGpF
Gz l CpylwGA zy Gsp FCwtyp nzpffntpyGF+ Jstns lEp FsEHyv Fzxp zq Gsp JlA
GzJlEo Gsp wtyplE ¨G-
itynp Gsp FzwHGtzy tF l ylGHElw FCwtyp+ Jp nly JEtGp tG lF
Y
∑
q ’K( ˆ YH ’K(θH W ’4-%$(
Hˆ0
%4= 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
•
•
0.20
• •
Male
• •• •
• •• • Female
Relative Change in Spinal BMD • • • •
0.15
•
• • • • •
• •
••• •• • •• • ••
• • •••• • • • •
•
• • • • • • •• • • •
0.10
•• • ••• • •• •• •
• ••• • • •• • • •••
• •• •
• •••• • •• •••• • •• • • •
• •• • •• • • •
• • • ••• ••• •• • • ••••• •• • • • •
0.05
• • •• • •• • • • • •• ••• ••• • • •
• • • •• •• ••••••• • •• •
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0.0
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-0.05
•
•
10 15 20 25
Age
QTRIFD 4W5W jsp EpFCzyFp tF Gsp EpwlGtIp nslyrp ty mzyp xtypElw opyFtGA xpl,
FHEpo lG Gsp FCtyp ty lozwpFnpyGF+ lF l qHynGtzy zq lrp- L FpClElGp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp
JlF 6G Gz Gsp xlwpF lyo qpxlwpF+ JtGs λ { /,///==- jstF nsztnp nzEEpFCzyoF Gz
lmzHG %= oprEppF zq qEppozx-
JspEp Gsp YH ’K( lEp ly Y !otxpyFtzylw FpG zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF qzE EpCEp!
FpyGtyr GstF qlxtwA zq ylGHElw FCwtypF ’ipnGtzy 4-=-% lyo PKpEntFp 4-?(- jsp
nEtGpEtzy GsHF EpoHnpF Gz
hii’θW λ( ˆ ’A } Yθ(j ’A } Yθ( ) λθj ΩY θW ’4-%%(

B ′′
JspEp ·Y•tH ˆ YH ’Kt ( lyo ·ΩY •Hv ˆ YH ’G(Yv′′ ’G(oG- jsp FzwHGtzy tF
plFtwA Fppy Gz mp
θ— ˆ ’Yj Y ) λΩY (}0 Yj AW ’4-%=(
l rpypElwtBpo Etorp EprEpFFtzy- jsp ¨GGpo FxzzGstyr FCwtyp tF rtIpy mA
Y
∑
q—’K( ˆ YH ’K(θ—H , ’4-%“(
Hˆ0
PffntpyG nzxCHGlGtzylw GpnsytDHpF qzE FxzzGstyr FCwtypF lEp otFnHFFpo ty

Gsp LCCpyotK Gz GstF nslCGpE-
QtrHEp 4-[ FszJF l FxzzGstyr FCwtyp ¨G Gz Fzxp olGl zy mzyp xtypElw
opyFtGA ’MXO( ty lozwpFnpyGF- jsp EpFCzyFp tF EpwlGtIp nslyrp ty FCtylw
MXO zIpE GJz nzyFpnHGtIp ItFtGF+ GACtnlwwA lmzHG zyp AplE lClEG- jsp olGl
lEp nzwzE nzopo mA rpyopE+ lyo GJz FpClElGp nHEIpF JpEp ¨G- jstF FtxCwp
4-? ixzzGstyr iCwtypF %4“
FHxxlEA EptyqzEnpF Gsp pItopynp ty Gsp olGl GslG Gsp rEzJGs FCHEG qzE
qpxlwpF CEpnpopF GslG qzE xlwpF mA lmzHG GJz AplEF- Ty mzGs nlFpF Gsp
FxzzGstyr ClElxpGpE λ JlF lCCEzKtxlGpwA $,$$$==: GstF nsztnp tF otFnHFFpo
ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy-
4-?-0 OprEppF zq QEppozx lyo ixzzGspE clGEtnpF

bp slIp yzG ApG tyotnlGpo szJ λ tF nszFpy qzE Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp- lGpE
ty GstF nslCGpE Jp opFnEtmp lHGzxlGtn xpGszoF HFtyr GpnsytDHpF FHns lF
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp otFnHFF tyGHtGtIp JlAF zq CEpFCpntqAtyr
Gsp lxzHyG zq FxzzGstyr-
L FxzzGstyr FCwtyp JtGs CEpnszFpy λ tF ly pKlxCwp zq l wtyplE FxzzGspE
’lF ty wtyplE zCpElGzE(- jstF tF mpnlHFp Gsp pFGtxlGpo ClElxpGpEF ty ’4-%=(
lEp l wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy zq Gsp At - OpyzGp mA —D Gsp Y !IpnGzE zq ¨GGpo IlwHpF
q—’Kt ( lG Gsp GEltytyr CEpotnGzEF Kt - jspy
—D ˆ Y’Yj Y ) λΩY (}0 Yj A
ˆ iλ A, ’4-%?(
Lrlty Gsp ¨G tF wtyplE ty A+ lyo Gsp ÿtGp wtyplE zCpElGzE iλ tF vyzJy lF

Gsp FxzzGspE xlGEtK- Zyp nzyFpDHpynp zq GstF wtyplEtGA tF GslG Gsp EpntCp
qzE CEzoHntyr —D qEzx A ozpF yzG opCpyo zy A tGFpwq: iλ opCpyoF zywA zy
Gsp Kt lyo λ-
typlE zCpElGzEF lEp qlxtwtlE ty xzEp GElotGtzylw wplFG FDHlEpF ¨GGtyr lF
Jpww- iHCCzFp Mξ tF l Y × X xlGEtK zq X nHmtn!FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF
pIlwHlGpo lG Gsp Y GEltytyr CztyGF Kt + JtGs vyzG FpDHpynp ξ+ lyo X ≪ Y -
jspy Gsp IpnGzE zq ¨GGpo FCwtyp IlwHpF tF rtIpy mA
—D ˆ Mξ ’Mj Mξ (}0 Mj A
ξ ξ
ˆ Sξ A, ’4-%4(
SpEp Gsp wtyplE zCpElGzE Sξ tF l CEzupnGtzy zCpElGzE+ lwFz vyzJy lF Gsp slG
xlGEtK ty FGlGtFGtnF- jspEp lEp Fzxp txCzEGlyG FtxtwlEtGtpF lyo otΓpEpynpF
mpGJppy Sξ lyo iλ 9
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| Sξ Sξ ˆ Sξ ’topxCzGpyG(+ Jstwp iλ iλ ⌋ iλ + xplytyr GslG Gsp EtrsG!
slyo Ftop pKnppoF Gsp wpqG!slyo Ftop mA l CzFtGtIp FpxtopÿtGp xlGEtK-
jstF tF l nzyFpDHpynp zq Gsp FsEtyvtyr ylGHEp zq iλ + Jstns Jp otFnHFF
qHEGspE mpwzJ-
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jsp pKCEpFFtzy X ˆ GElnp’Sξ ( rtIpF Gsp otxpyFtzy zq Gsp CEzupnGtzy FClnp+
Jstns tF lwFz Gsp yHxmpE zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF+ lyo spynp Gsp yHxmpE zq Cl!
ElxpGpEF tyIzwIpo ty Gsp ¨G- MA lylwzrA Jp opÿp Gsp p;pnGtIp oprEppF zq
%4? 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
qEppozx zq l FxzzGstyr FCwtyp Gz mp
oqλ ˆ GElnp’iλ (W ’4-%[(
Gsp FHx zq Gsp otlrzylw pwpxpyGF zq iλ - jstF IpEA HFpqHw opÿtGtzy lwwzJF
HF l xzEp tyGHtGtIp JlA Gz ClElxpGpEtBp Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp+ lyo tyoppo
xlyA zGspE FxzzGspEF lF Jpww+ ty l nzyFtFGpyG qlFstzy- QzE pKlxCwp+ ty Qtr!
HEp 4-[ Jp FCpnt¨po oqλ ˆ %= qzE plns zq Gsp nHEIpF+ lyo Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr
λ ≈ $,$$$== JlF opEtIpo yHxpEtnlwwA mA FzwItyr GElnp’iλ ( ˆ %=- jspEp lEp
xlyA lErHxpyGF FHCCzEGtyr GstF opÿtGtzy zq oprEppF zq qEppozx+ lyo Jp
nzIpE Fzxp zq Gspx spEp-
itynp iλ tF FAxxpGEtn ’lyo CzFtGtIp FpxtopÿtGp(+ tG slF l Eplw ptrpy!
opnzxCzFtGtzy- MpqzEp Jp CEznppo+ tG tF nzyIpytpyG Gz EpJEtGp iλ ty Gsp
hptyFns qzEx
iλ ˆ ’T ) λV(}0 W ’4-%fi(
JspEp V ozpF yzG opCpyo zy λ ’PKpEntFp 4-–(- itynp —D ˆ iλ A FzwIpF
xty’A } D (j ’A } D ( ) λD j VD W ’4-%](
Z
V tF vyzJy lF Gsp CpylwGA xlGEtK+ lyo tyoppo l DHloElGtn qzEx ty V slF

l EpCEpFpyGlGtzy ty GpExF zq l JptrsGpo FHx zq FDHlEpo ’otItopo( Fpnzyo
otΓpEpynpF- jsp ptrpy!opnzxCzFtGtzy zq iλ tF
Y
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lyo ov Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr ptrpyIlwHp zq V- QtrHEp 4-fi ’GzC( FszJF Gsp Ep!
FHwGF zq lCCwAtyr l nHmtn FxzzGstyr FCwtyp Gz Fzxp ltE CzwwHGtzy olGl ’%=]
zmFpEIlGtzyF(- jJz ¨GF lEp rtIpy9 l FxzzGspE ¨G nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz l wlErpE
CpylwGA λ lyo l EzHrspE ¨G qzE l FxlwwpE CpylwGA- jsp wzJpE ClypwF EpCEp!
FpyG Gsp ptrpyIlwHpF ’wzJpE wpqG( lyo Fzxp ptrpyIpnGzEF ’wzJpE EtrsG( zq Gsp
nzEEpFCzyotyr FxzzGspE xlGEtnpF- izxp zq Gsp strswtrsGF zq Gsp ptrpyEpC!
EpFpyGlGtzy lEp Gsp qzwwzJtyr9
| jsp ptrpyIpnGzEF lEp yzG lΓpnGpo mA nslyrpF ty λ+ lyo spynp Gsp Jszwp
qlxtwA zq FxzzGstyr FCwtypF ’qzE l ClEGtnHwlE FpDHpynp K( tyopKpo mA
λ slIp Gsp Flxp ptrpyIpnGzEF-
(Y
| iλ A ˆ vˆ0 Hv ρv ’λ(〈Hv W A〉+ lyo spynp Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp zCpE!
lGpF mA opnzxCzFtyr A J-E-G- Gsp ’nzxCwpGp( mlFtF ·Hv •+ lyo otΓpE!
pyGtlwwA FsEtyvtyr Gsp nzyGEtmHGtzyF HFtyr ρv ’λ(- jstF tF Gz mp nzy!
GElFGpo JtGs l mlFtF!EprEpFFtzy xpGszo+ JspEp Gsp nzxCzypyGF lEp
4-? ixzzGstyr iCwtypF %44
30 •
•
•
Ozone Concentration
••
• •
20
•• • •
• • • • • •• •• •
• • •
• •• • • •
• • ••• •
• •• •
• • • • •• •• •
• • • • •• • • • • • • • ••
• •
10
• • •• • • • • •
• • • •
• • ••
• •••• • •
•• • • • • •
• • •
• • •• •• • • • • •
••• • • • • •• • • • •
•
•
•
0
-50 0 50 100
Daggot Pressure Gradient

1.2
1.0
• • •• • •
•
•
0.8
• •
df=5
•
Eigenvalues
df=11
0.6
•
•
•
0.4
•
• •
0.2
• •
••
•• •
• • • • • • • • •• •• •• •• •• •• •• •
0.0
-0.2
5 10 15 20 25
Order -50 0 50 100 -50 0 50 100
QTRIFD 4W6W ’jzC9( ixzzGstyr FCwtyp 6G zq zBzyp nzynpyGElGtzy IpEFHF OlrrzG

CEpFFHEp rElotpyG- jsp GJz 6GF nzEEpFCzyo Gz ot;pEpyG IlwHpF zq Gsp FxzzGstyr
ClElxpGpE+ nszFpy Gz lnstpIp 6Ip lyo pwpIpy p;pnGtIp oprEppF zq qEppozx+ op6ypo
mA oqλ ˆ GElnp’Gλ (- ’ zJpE wpqG9( QtEFG =4 ptrpyIlwHpF qzE Gsp GJz FxzzGstyr,FCwtyp
xlGEtnpF- jsp 6EFG GJz lEp pKlnGwA %+ lyo lww lEp ≥ /- ’ zJpE EtrsG9( jstEo Gz
FtKGs ptrpyIpnGzEF zq Gsp FCwtyp FxzzGspE xlGEtnpF- Ty plns nlFp+ Hv tF CwzGGpo
lrltyFG K+ lyo lF FHns tF ItpJpo lF l qHynGtzy zq K- jsp EHr lG Gsp mlFp zq Gsp
CwzGF tyotnlGp Gsp znnHEEpynp zq olGl CztyGF- jsp olxCpo qHynGtzyF EpCEpFpyG Gsp
FxzzGspo IpEFtzyF zq GspFp qHynGtzyF ’HFtyr Gsp 4 oq FxzzGspE(-
%4[ 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
ptGspE wpqG lwzyp+ zE FsEHyv Gz BpEz1GslG tF+ l CEzupnGtzy xlGEtK FHns

lF Sξ lmzIp slF X ptrpyIlwHpF pDHlw Gz %+ lyo Gsp EpFG lEp $- QzE
GstF EplFzy FxzzGstyr FCwtypF lEp EpqpEEpo Gz lF FsEtyvtyr FxzzGspEF+
Jstwp EprEpFFtzy FCwtypF lEp CEzupnGtzy FxzzGspEF ’Fpp QtrHEp “-%fi zy
Clrp ]$(-
| jsp FpDHpynp zq Hv + zEopEpo mA opnEplFtyr ρv ’λ(+ lCCplE Gz tynEplFp
ty nzxCwpKtGA- Tyoppo+ GspA slIp Gsp BpEz!nEzFFtyr mpslItzE zq CzwAyz!
xtlwF zq tynEplFtyr oprEpp- itynp iλ Hv ˆ ρv ’λ(Hv + Jp Fpp szJ plns zq
Gsp ptrpyIpnGzEF GspxFpwIpF lEp FsEHyv mA Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp9 Gsp
strspE Gsp nzxCwpKtGA+ Gsp xzEp GspA lEp FsEHyv- Tq Gsp ozxlty zq c
tF CpEtzotn+ Gspy Gsp Hv lEp FtypF lyo nzFtypF lG otΓpEpyG qEpDHpyntpF-
| jsp ËFG GJz ptrpyIlwHpF lEp lwJlAF zyp+ lyo GspA nzEEpFCzyo Gz Gsp
GJz!otxpyFtzylw ptrpyFClnp zq qHynGtzyF wtyplE ty K ’PKpEntFp 4-%%(+
Jstns lEp ypIpE FsEHyv-
| jsp ptrpyIlwHpF ρv ’λ( ˆ %.’% ) λov ( lEp ly tyIpEFp qHynGtzy zq Gsp
ptrpyIlwHpF ov zq Gsp CpylwGA xlGEtK V+ xzopElGpo mA λ: λ nzyGEzwF
Gsp ElGp lG Jstns Gsp ρv ’λ( opnEplFp Gz BpEz- o0 ˆ o= ˆ $ lyo lrlty
wtyplE qHynGtzyF lEp yzG CpylwtBpo-
| Zyp nly EpClElxpGEtBp Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp HFtyr Gsp mlFtF IpnGzEF
Hv ’Gsp OpxxwpE8hptyFns mlFtF(- Ty GstF nlFp Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp
FzwIpF
xty ‖A } kθ‖= ) λθ j OθW ’4-=%(
JspEp k slF nzwHxyF Hv lyo O tF l otlrzylw xlGEtK JtGs pwpxpyGF
ov -
(Y
| oqλ ˆ GElnp’iλ ( ˆ vˆ0 ρv ’λ(- QzE CEzupnGtzy FxzzGspEF+ lww Gsp
ptrpyIlwHpF lEp %+ plns zyp nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz l otxpyFtzy zq Gsp CEz!
upnGtzy FHmFClnp-
QtrHEp 4-] opCtnGF l FxzzGstyr FCwtyp xlGEtK+ JtGs Gsp EzJF zEopEpo JtGs
K- jsp mlyopo ylGHEp zq GstF EpCEpFpyGlGtzy FHrrpFGF GslG l FxzzGstyr
FCwtyp tF l wznlw ¨GGtyr xpGszo+ xHns wtvp Gsp wznlwwA JptrsGpo EprEpFFtzy
CEznpoHEpF ty NslCGpE [- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF ty opGltw FpwpnGpo EzJF zq
i+ Jstns Jp nlww Gsp pDHtIlwpyG vpEypwF- LF λ → $+ oqλ → Y + lyo iλ → T+
Gsp Y !otxpyFtzylw topyGtGA xlGEtK- LF λ → ∞+ oqλ → =+ lyo iλ → S+ Gsp
slG xlGEtK qzE wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zy K-
4-4 LHGzxlGtn ipwpnGtzy zq Gsp ixzzGstyr

flElxpGpEF
jsp FxzzGstyr ClElxpGpEF qzE EprEpFFtzy FCwtypF pynzxClFF Gsp oprEpp zq
Gsp FCwtypF+ lyo Gsp yHxmpE lyo CwlnpxpyG zq Gsp vyzGF- QzE FxzzGstyr
4-4 LHGzxlGtn ipwpnGtzy zq Gsp ixzzGstyr flElxpGpEF %4fi
Equivalent Kernels
Row 12
•••• • • ••• ••• •
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•••
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••
•••
•••
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Smoother Matrix Row 25
••••
•••• ••• ••• ••••
•• •• ••••
••• ••••
••• ••••
•••••
12 • •••••
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25 Row 50
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50 •• •••• ••••••
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•••• • •
Row 75
75
••••••••••••••
•••••• ••••
•••• •••••
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100
Row 100
115
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•
Row 115
••••••••••• •• •
•••
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•••
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••••
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QTRIFD 4W7W jsp FxzzGspE xlGEtK qzE l FxzzGstyr FCwtyp tF yplEwA mlyopo+
tyotnlGtyr ly pDHtIlwpyG vpEypw JtGs wznlw FHCCzEG- jsp wpqG Clypw EpCEpFpyGF Gsp
pwpxpyGF zq G lF ly txlrp- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp pDHtIlwpyG vpEypw zE JptrsG,
tyr qHynGtzy ty opGltw qzE Gsp tyotnlGpo EzJF-
%4] 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
FCwtypF+ Jp slIp zywA Gsp CpylwGA ClElxpGpE λ Gz FpwpnG+ Ftynp Gsp vyzGF lEp
lG lww Gsp HytDHp GEltytyr c&F+ lyo nHmtn oprEpp tF lwxzFG lwJlAF HFpo ty
CElnGtnp-
ipwpnGtyr Gsp CwlnpxpyG lyo yHxmpE zq vyzGF qzE EprEpFFtzy FCwtypF nly mp
l nzxmtylGzEtlwwA nzxCwpK GlFv+ HywpFF Fzxp FtxCwt¨nlGtzyF lEp pyqzEnpo-
jsp XLhi CEznpoHEp ty NslCGpE – HFpF l rEppoA lwrzEtGsx JtGs Fzxp
lootGtzylw lCCEzKtxlGtzyF Gz lnstpIp l CElnGtnlw nzxCEzxtFp- bp Jtww yzG
otFnHFF GstF qHEGspE spEp-
4-4-0 QtKtyr Gsp OprEppF zq QEppozx

itynp oqλ ˆ GElnp’iλ ( tF xzyzGzyp ty λ qzE FxzzGstyr FCwtypF+ Jp nly ty!
IpEG Gsp EpwlGtzyFstC lyo FCpntqA λ mA ¨Ktyr oq- Ty CElnGtnp GstF nly mp
lnstpIpo mA FtxCwp yHxpEtnlw xpGszoF- iz+ qzE pKlxCwp+ ty h zyp nly HFp
FxzzGs-FCwtypbK+A+oD1[( Gz FCpntqA Gsp lxzHyG zq FxzzGstyr- jstF pynzHE!
lrpF l xzEp GElotGtzylw xzop zq xzopw FpwpnGtzy+ JspEp Jp xtrsG GEA l nzH!
Cwp zq otΓpEpyG IlwHpF zq oq+ lyo FpwpnG zyp mlFpo zy lCCEzKtxlGp Q !GpFGF+
EpFtoHlw CwzGF lyo zGspE xzEp FHmupnGtIp nEtGpEtl- kFtyr oq ty GstF JlA CEz!
ItopF l HytqzEx lCCEzlns Gz nzxClEp xlyA otΓpEpyG FxzzGstyr xpGszoF-
TG tF ClEGtnHwlEwA HFpqHw ty rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopwF ’NslCGpE –(+ JspEp
FpIpElw FxzzGstyr xpGszoF nly mp FtxHwGlypzHFwA HFpo ty zyp xzopw-
4-4-1 jsp MtlF8alEtlynp jElopz:

QtrHEp 4-– FszJF Gsp pΓpnG zq Gsp nsztnp zq oqλ Jspy HFtyr l FxzzGstyr
FCwtyp zy l FtxCwp pKlxCwp9
d ˆ q ’c( ) εW
Fty’%=’c ) $,=(( ’4-==(
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rEzJGs ty mlFtF qHynGtzyF lF Gsp otxpyFtzy tynEplFpF+ lyo GACtnlwwA Jp slIp

Gz EpoHnp Gsp yHxmpE zq qHynGtzyF CpE nzzEotylGp lnnzEotyrwA-
jsp lootGtIp FCwtyp xzopwF otFnHFFpo ty NslCGpE – lEp l EpFGEtnGpo nwlFF
zq xHwGtotxpyFtzylw FCwtypF- jspA nly mp EpCEpFpyGpo ty GstF rpypElw qzExH!
wlGtzy lF Jpww: GslG tF+ GspEp pKtFGF l CpylwGA U”q fl GslG rHlElyGppF GslG Gsp
FzwHGtzy slF Gsp qzEx q ’c( ˆ α ) q0 ’c0 ( ) ± ± ± ) qo ’co ( lyo GslG plns zq
Gsp qHynGtzyF qH lEp HytIlEtlGp FCwtypF- Ty GstF nlFp Gsp CpylwGA tF FzxpJslG
oprpypElGp+ lyo tG tF xzEp ylGHElw Gz lFFHxp GslG q tF lootGtIp+ lyo Gspy
FtxCwA txCzFp ly lootGtzylw CpylwGA zy plns zq Gsp nzxCzypyG qHynGtzyF9
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ˆ qH′′ ’GH (= oGH , ’4-?$(
Hˆ0
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∑ ∑
q ’c( ˆ α ) qH ’cH ( ) qHv ’cH W cv ( ) ± ± ± W ’4-?%(
H H/v
JspEp plns zq Gsp nzxCzypyGF lEp FCwtypF zq Gsp EpDHtEpo otxpyFtzy- jspEp
lEp xlyA nsztnpF Gz mp xlop9
| jsp xlKtxHx zEopE zq tyGpElnGtzy1Jp slIp FszJy HC Gz zEopE =
lmzIp-
| bstns GpExF Gz tynwHop1yzG lww xlty pΓpnGF lyo tyGpElnGtzyF lEp
ypnpFFlEtwA yppopo-
| bslG EpCEpFpyGlGtzy Gz HFp1Fzxp nsztnpF lEp9
8 EprEpFFtzy FCwtypF JtGs l EpwlGtIpwA Fxlww yHxmpE zq mlFtF qHyn!
GtzyF CpE nzzEotylGp+ lyo GsptE GpyFzE CEzoHnGF qzE tyGpElnGtzyF:
8 l nzxCwpGp mlFtF lF ty FxzzGstyr FCwtypF+ lyo tynwHop lCCEzCEt!
lGp EprHwlEtBpEF qzE plns GpEx ty Gsp pKClyFtzy-
Ty xlyA nlFpF Jspy Gsp yHxmpE zq CzGpyGtlw otxpyFtzyF ’qplGHEpF( tF wlErp+
lHGzxlGtn xpGszoF lEp xzEp opFtElmwp- jsp XLhi lyo XLhj CEznpoHEpF
’NslCGpEF – lyo %$+ EpFCpnGtIpwA(+ mzGs qlww tyGz GstF nlGprzEA-
4-7 hprHwlEtBlGtzy lyo hpCEzoHntyr VpEypw

StwmpEG iClnpF
Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp nlFG FCwtypF tyGz Gsp wlErpE nzyGpKG zq EprHwlEtBlGtzy xpGs!
zoF lyo EpCEzoHntyr vpEypw StwmpEG FClnpF- jstF FpnGtzy tF DHtGp Gpnsytnlw
lyo nly mp FvtCCpo mA Gsp otFtyGpEpFGpo zE tyGtxtolGpo EplopE-
%[] 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
L rpypElw nwlFF zq EprHwlEtBlGtzy CEzmwpxF slF Gsp qzEx

CY D
∑
xty ’At W q ’Kt (( ) λU’q ( ’4-?=(
q ∈S
tˆ0
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l FClnp zq qHynGtzyF zy Jstns U’q ( tF opÿpo- RtEzFt pG lw- ’%––4( opFnEtmp
DHtGp rpypElw CpylwGA qHynGtzylwF zq Gsp qzEx
∫
Kq2’F(K=
U’q ( ˆ oFW ’4-?“(
2
ThM R’F(
JspEp q2 opyzGpF Gsp QzHEtpE GElyFqzEx zq q + lyo R 2 tF Fzxp CzFtGtIp qHynGtzy

GslG qlwwF zΓ Gz BpEz lF KKFKK → ∞- jsp topl tF GslG %.R2 tynEplFpF Gsp CpylwGA
qzE strs!qEpDHpynA nzxCzypyGF zq q - kyopE Fzxp lootGtzylw lFFHxCGtzyF
GspA FszJ GslG Gsp FzwHGtzyF slIp Gsp qzEx
V
∑ Y
∑
q ’c( ˆ αv φv ’c( ) θt R’c } Kt (W ’4-??(
vˆ0 tˆ0
JspEp Gsp φv FCly Gsp yHww FClnp zq Gsp CpylwGA qHynGtzylw U+ lyo R tF Gsp
tyIpEFp QzHEtpE GElyFqzEx zq R- 2 ixzzGstyr FCwtypF lyo Gsty!CwlGp FCwtypF
qlww tyGz GstF qElxpJzEv- jsp EpxlEvlmwp qplGHEp zq GstF FzwHGtzy tF GslG
Jstwp Gsp nEtGpEtzy ’4-?=( tF opÿpo zIpE ly tyÿtGp!otxpyFtzylw FClnp+ Gsp
FzwHGtzy tF ÿtGp!otxpyFtzylw- Ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzyF Jp wzzv lG Fzxp FCpnt¨n
pKlxCwpF-
4-7-0 iClnpF zq QHynGtzyF RpypElGpo mA VpEypwF

Ly txCzEGlyG FHmnwlFF zq CEzmwpxF zq Gsp qzEx ’4-?=( lEp rpypElGpo mA
l CzFtGtIp opÿtGp vpEypw V’KW A(+ lyo Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr FClnp zq qHyn!
GtzyF SV tF nlwwpo l EpCEzoHntyr vpEypw StwmpEG FClnp ’hVSi(- jsp CpylwGA
qHynGtzylw U tF opÿpo ty GpExF zq Gsp vpEypw lF Jpww- bp rtIp l mEtpq lyo
FtxCwt¨po tyGEzoHnGtzy Gz GstF nwlFF zq xzopwF+ lolCGpo qEzx blsml ’%––$(
lyo RtEzFt pG lw- ’%––4(+ lyo ytnpwA FHxxlEtBpo ty PIrpytzH pG lw- ’=$$$(-
pG KW A ∈ ThC - bp nzyFtopE Gsp FClnp zq qHynGtzyF rpypElGpo mA Gsp wtyplE
FCly zq (·V’±W A(W A ∈ ThC (•: t-p lEmtGElEA wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF zq Gsp qzEx
q ’K( ˆ x αx V’KW Ax (+ JspEp plns vpEypw GpEx tF ItpJpo lF l qHynGtzy
zq Gsp ËFG lErHxpyG+ lyo tyopKpo mA Gsp Fpnzyo- iHCCzFp GslG V slF ly
ptrpy!pKClyFtzy
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V’KW A( ˆ γt φt ’K(φt ’A( ’4-?4(
tˆ0
(∞ =
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GspFp ptrpy!qHynGtzyF+
∞
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q ’K( ˆ nt φt ’K(W ’4-?[(
tˆ0
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∞
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lyo Itnp IpEFl-
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xty ’At W q ’Kt (( ) λKKq KKSa ’4-?](
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tˆ0
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plFtwA Fppy GslG 〈V’±W Kt (W q 〉Sa ˆ q ’Kt (- itxtwlEwA 〈V’±W Kt (W V’±W KH (〉Sa ˆ
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Y ∑
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Etzy
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α
bp lEp HFtyr l IpnGzE yzGlGtzy+ ty Jstns V tF Gsp Y × Y xlGEtK JtGs tuGs

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jspEp tF l MlApFtly tyGpECEpGlGtzy zq GstF nwlFF zq xzopwF+ ty Jstns q

tF tyGpECEpGpo lF l EplwtBlGtzy zq l BpEz!xply FGlGtzylEA RlHFFtly CEznpFF+
JtGs CEtzE nzIlEtlynp qHynGtzy V- jsp ptrpy!opnzxCzFtGtzy CEzoHnpF l Fp!
EtpF zq zEGszrzylw ptrpy!qHynGtzyF φH ’K( JtGs lFFzntlGpo IlEtlynpF γH - jsp
GACtnlw FnpylEtz tF GslG ˜FxzzGs˙ qHynGtzyF φH slIp wlErp CEtzE IlEtlynp+
Jstwp ˜EzHrs˙ φH slIp Fxlww CEtzE IlEtlynpF- jsp CpylwGA ty ’4-?]( tF Gsp
nzyGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp CEtzE Gz Gsp uztyG wtvpwtszzo+ lyo CpylwtBpF xzEp GszFp
nzxCzypyGF JtGs FxlwwpE CEtzE IlEtlynp ’nzxClEp JtGs ’4-?“((-
QzE FtxCwtntGA Jp slIp oplwG JtGs Gsp nlFp spEp JspEp lww xpxmpEF zq S
lEp CpylwtBpo+ lF ty ’4-?](- XzEp rpypElwwA+ GspEp xlA mp Fzxp nzxCzypyGF
ty S GslG Jp JtFs Gz wplIp lwzyp+ FHns lF Gsp wtyplE qHynGtzyF qzE nHmtn
FxzzGstyr FCwtypF ty ipnGtzy 4-?- jsp xHwGtotxpyFtzylw Gsty!CwlGp FCwtypF
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Ty GspFp nlFpF GspEp tF l xzEp nzyIpytpyG EpCEpFpyGlGtzy S ˆ S$ ⊕ S0 +
JtGs Gsp yHww FClnp S$ nzyFtFGtyr zq+ qzE pKlxCwp+ wzJ oprEpp CzwAyzxt!
lwF ty K GslG oz yzG rpG CpylwtBpo- jsp CpylwGA mpnzxpF U’q ( ˆ ‖f0 q ‖+
JspEp f0 tF Gsp
(XzEGszrzylw CEzupnGtzy
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qzEx q ’K( ˆ Hˆ0 βH sH ’K( ) tˆ0 αt V’KW Kt (+ JspEp Gsp ËFG GpEx EpCEp!
FpyGF ly pKClyFtzy ty S$ - QEzx l MlApFtly CpEFCpnGtIp+ Gsp nzpffntpyGF zq
nzxCzypyGF ty S$ slIp txCEzCpE CEtzEF+ JtGs tyÿtGp IlEtlynp-
4-7-1 PKlxCwpF zq hVSi

jsp xlnstypEA lmzIp tF oEtIpy mA Gsp nsztnp zq Gsp vpEypw V lyo Gsp wzFF
qHynGtzy - bp nzyFtopE ËFG EprEpFFtzy HFtyr FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF- Ty GstF
nlFp ’4-?]( FCpntlwtBpF Gz CpylwtBpo wplFG FDHlEpF+ lyo Gsp FzwHGtzy nly mp
nslElnGpEtBpo ty GJz pDHtIlwpyG JlAF nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz ’4-?–( zE ’4-4=(9
 =
Y
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xty’A } Vα(j ’A } Vα( ) λαj Vα, ’4-4?(

α
jsp FzwHGtzy qzE α tF zmGltypo FtxCwA lF
— ˆ ’V ) λT(}0 AW
α ’4-44(
lyo
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o C
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X
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ptrpyIlwHpF zq V+
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Y
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zCGtxtBp ’PKpEntFp 4-%[(- $ %
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GtxpF+ lyo nly nzxCHGp Gsp FzwHGtzy ty Z’Y ˜ ( zCpElGtzyF-
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hlotlw VpEypw ty Th0
0.8
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−2 −1 0 1 2 3 4
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RlHFFtly hlotlw MlFtF QHynGtzyF

Ty Gsp CEpnpotyr pKlxCwp+ Gsp vpEypw tF nszFpy mpnlHFp tG EpCEpFpyGF ly
pKClyFtzy zq CzwAyzxtlwF lyo nly nzyIpytpyGwA nzxCHGp strs!otxpyFtzylw
tyypE CEzoHnGF- Ty GstF pKlxCwp Gsp vpEypw tF nszFpy mpnlHFp zq tGF qHynGtzylw
qzEx ty Gsp EpCEpFpyGlGtzy ’4-4$(-
=
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qzE pKlxCwp+ wploF Gz l EprEpFFtzy xzopw GslG tF ly pKClyFtzy ty RlHFFtly
Elotlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF+
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lEp pFGtxlGpo HFtyr ’4-4?(-
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Gsp xtKGHEp pKlxCwp qEzx NslCGpE =- bp FszJ Ïp zq Gsp =$$ vpEypw mlFtF
qHynGtzyF vx ’K( ˆ V’KW Kx (-
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opnzxCzFtGtzy ΦOγ Φj - bp nly Gstyv zq Gsp nzwHxyF zq Φ lyo Gsp nzEEp!
FCzyotyr ptrpyIlwHpF ty Oγ lF pxCtEtnlw pFGtxlGpF zq Gsp ptrpy pKClyFtzy
’4-?4(= - LwGszHrs Gsp ptrpyIpnGzEF lEp otFnEpGp+ Jp nly EpCEpFpyG Gspx lF
qHynGtzyF zy Th0 ’PKpEntFp 4-%fi(- QtrHEp 4-%4 FszJF Gsp wlErpFG 4$ ptrpyIlw!
HpF zq V- jsp wplotyr ptrpyqHynGtzyF lEp FxzzGs+ lyo GspA lEp FHnnpFFtIpwA
xzEp JtrrwA lF Gsp zEopE tynEplFpF- jstF mEtyrF Gz wtqp Gsp CpylwGA ty ’4-?–(+
JspEp Jp Fpp Gsp nzpffntpyGF zq strspE!zEopE qHynGtzyF rpG CpylwtBpo xzEp
Gsly wzJpE!zEopE zypF- jsp EtrsG Clypw ty QtrHEp 4-%? FszJF Gsp nzEEpFCzyo!
= jsp ℓGs nzwHxy zq Φ tF ly pFGtxlGp zq φ ) pIlwHlGpo lG plns zq Gsp Y zmFpEIlGtzyF-

ℓ
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lG Gsp CztyG Kt - LwGszHrs ty CEtyntCwp) GspEp nly mp tyÿtGpwA xlyA pwpxpyGF ty φ) zHE
pFGtxlGp slF lG xzFG Y pwpxpyGF-
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QTRIFD 4W03W ’ pqG Clypw( jsp 6EFG %[ yzExlwtBpo ptrpyIpnGzEF zq U+ Gsp

=// × =// vpEypw xlGEtK qzE Gsp 6EFG nzzEotylGp zq Gsp xtKGHEp olGl- jspFp lEp
ItpJpo lF pFGtxlGpF φ1ℓ zq Gsp ptrpyqHynGtzyF ty ’4-34(+ lyo lEp EpCEpFpyGpo lF
qHynGtzyF ty Th0 JtGs Gsp zmFpEIpo IlwHpF FHCpEtxCzFpo ty nzwzE- jspA lEp√lEElyrpo
ty EzJF+ FGlEGtyr lG Gsp GzC wpqG- ’htrsG Clypw( hpFnlwpo IpEFtzyF sℓ ˆ γ1 ℓ φ1ℓ zq
Gsp qHynGtzyF ty Gsp wpqG Clypw+ qzE Jstns Gsp vpEypw nzxCHGpF Gsp 2tyypE CEzoHnG-5
1e+01
1e−03
Eigenvalue
1e−07
1e−11
1e−15
0 10 20 30 40 50
QTRIFD 4W04W jsp wlErpFG 4/ ptrpyIlwHpF zq U‘ lww GszFp mpAzyo Gsp “/Gs lEp
p;pnGtIpwA BpEz-
%fi? 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
tyr qplGHEp FClnp EpCEpFpyGlGtzy zq Gsp ptrpyqHynGtzyF

A
sℓ ’K( ˆ γ— ℓ φ—ℓ ’K(W ℓ ˆ %W , , , W Y, ’4-[4(
YzGp GslG 〈s’Kt (W s’Kt′ (〉 ˆ V’Kt W Kt′ (- jsp Fnlwtyr mA Gsp ptrpyIlwHpF DHtnvwA
FsEtyvF xzFG zq Gsp qHynGtzyF ozJy Gz BpEz+ wplItyr ly pΓpnGtIp otxpyFtzy
zq lmzHG %= ty GstF nlFp- jsp nzEEpFCzyotyr zCGtxtBlGtzy CEzmwpx tF l FGly!
olEo Etorp EprEpFFtzy+ lF ty ’4-[“(- iz lwGszHrs ty CEtyntCwp Gsp txCwtntG
qplGHEp FClnp tF tyÿtGp otxpyFtzylw+ Gsp pΓpnGtIp otxpyFtzy tF oElxlG!
tnlwwA wzJpE mpnlHFp zq Gsp EpwlGtIp lxzHyGF zq FsEtyvlrp lCCwtpo Gz plns
mlFtF qHynGtzy- jsp vpEypw Fnlwp ClElxpGpE ν CwlAF l Ezwp spEp lF Jpww: wlErpE
ν txCwtpF xzEp wznlw vx qHynGtzyF+ lyo tynEplFpF Gsp pΓpnGtIp otxpyFtzy zq
Gsp qplGHEp FClnp- ipp SlFGtp lyo esH ’=$$[( qzE xzEp opGltwF-
TG tF lwFz vyzJy ’RtEzFt pG lw-+ %––4( GslG l Gsty!CwlGp FCwtyp ’ipnGtzy 4-fi(
tF ly pKClyFtzy ty Elotlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF+ rpypElGpo mA Gsp vpEypw
V’KW A( ˆ ‖K } A‖= wzr’‖K } A‖(, ’4-[[(
hlotlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF lEp otFnHFFpo ty xzEp opGltw ty ipnGtzy [-fi-
iHCCzEG apnGzE NwlFFt¨pEF

jsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE xlnstypF zq NslCGpE(Y %= qzE l GJz!nwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
CEzmwpx slIp Gsp qzEx q ’K( ˆ α$ ) tˆ0 αt V’KW Kt (+ JspEp Gsp ClElxpGpEF
lEp nszFpy Gz xtytxtBp
"Y /
∑ λ j
xty ”% } At q ’Kt (fl) ) α Vα W ’4-[fi(
α$ Wα
tˆ0
=
JspEp At ∈ ·}%W %•+ lyo ”Bfl) opyzGpF Gsp CzFtGtIp ClEG zq B- jstF nly mp
ItpJpo lF l DHloElGtn zCGtxtBlGtzy CEzmwpx JtGs wtyplE nzyFGEltyGF+ lyo
EpDHtEpF l DHloElGtn CEzrElxxtyr lwrzEtGsx qzE tGF FzwHGtzy- jsp ylxp
FHCCzEG IpnGzE lEtFpF qEzx Gsp qlnG GslG GACtnlwwA xlyA zq Gsp α — t ˆ $ ”oHp
Gz Gsp CtpnpJtFp!BpEz ylGHEp zq Gsp wzFF qHynGtzy ty ’4-[fi(fl+ lyo Fz q— tF ly
pKClyFtzy ty l FHmFpG zq Gsp V’±W Kt (- ipp ipnGtzy %=-“-“ qzE xzEp opGltwF-
4-– blIpwpG ixzzGstyr

bp slIp Fppy GJz otΓpEpyG xzopF zq zCpElGtzy JtGs otnGtzylEtpF zq mlFtF
qHynGtzyF- btGs EprEpFFtzy FCwtypF+ Jp FpwpnG l FHmFpG zq Gsp mlFpF+ HFtyr
ptGspE FHmupnG!xlGGpE vyzJwporp+ zE pwFp lHGzxlGtnlwwA- jsp xzEp lolCGtIp
CEznpoHEpF FHns lF XLhi ’NslCGpE –( nly nlCGHEp mzGs FxzzGs lyo yzy!
FxzzGs mpslItzE- btGs FxzzGstyr FCwtypF+ Jp HFp l nzxCwpGp mlFtF+ mHG
Gspy FsEtyv Gsp nzpffntpyGF GzJlEo FxzzGsypFF-
4-– blIpwpG ixzzGstyr %fi4
Haar Wavelets Symmlet-8 Wavelets
µ5b24
µ5b04
µ4b04
µ4b0
µ3b8
µ3b3
µ2b4
µ2b=
µ=b2
µ=b0
µ0b+
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Time Time
QTRIFD 4W05W izxp FpwpnGpo JlIpwpGF lG ot;pEpyG GElyFwlGtzyF lyo otwlGtzyF

qzE Gsp SllE lyo FAxxwpG qlxtwtpF- jsp qHynGtzyF slIp mppy Fnlwpo Gz FHtG Gsp
otFCwlA-
blIpwpGF GACtnlwwA HFp l nzxCwpGp zEGszyzExlw mlFtF Gz EpCEpFpyG qHyn!

GtzyF+ mHG Gspy FsEtyv lyo FpwpnG Gsp nzpffntpyGF GzJlEo l FClEFp EpCEpFpy!
GlGtzy- UHFG lF l FxzzGs qHynGtzy nly mp EpCEpFpyGpo mA l qpJ FCwtyp mlFtF
qHynGtzyF+ l xzFGwA 7lG qHynGtzy JtGs l qpJ tFzwlGpo mHxCF nly mp EpCEp!
FpyGpo JtGs l qpJ ’mHxCA( mlFtF qHynGtzyF- blIpwpGF mlFpF lEp IpEA CzCHwlE
ty Ftrylw CEznpFFtyr lyo nzxCEpFFtzy+ Ftynp GspA lEp lmwp Gz EpCEpFpyG mzGs
FxzzGs lyo#zE wznlwwA mHxCA qHynGtzyF ty ly pffntpyG JlA1l Cspyzxpyzy
oHmmpo Gtxp lyo qEpDHpynA wznlwtBlGtzy- Ty nzyGElFG+ Gsp GElotGtzylw QzHEtpE
mlFtF lwwzJF zywA qEpDHpynA wznlwtBlGtzy-
MpqzEp Jp rtIp opGltwF+ wpG&F wzzv lG Gsp SllE JlIpwpGF ty Gsp wpqG Clypw
zq QtrHEp 4-%[ Gz rpG ly tyGHtGtIp topl zq szJ JlIpwpG FxzzGstyr JzEvF-
jsp IpEGtnlw lKtF tyotnlGpF Gsp Fnlwp ’qEpDHpynA( zq Gsp JlIpwpGF+ qEzx wzJ
Fnlwp lG Gsp mzGGzx Gz strs Fnlwp lG Gsp GzC- LG plns Fnlwp Gsp JlIpwpGF lEp
˜Clnvpo ty˙ Ftop!mA!Ftop Gz nzxCwpGpwA ¨ww Gsp Gtxp lKtF9 Jp slIp zywA FszJy
%fi[ 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
l FpwpnGpo FHmFpG- blIpwpG FxzzGstyr ¨GF Gsp nzpffntpyGF qzE GstF mlFtF mA
wplFG FDHlEpF+ lyo Gspy GsEpFszwoF ’otFnlEoF+ ¨wGpEF( Gsp FxlwwpE nzpffntpyGF-
itynp GspEp lEp xlyA mlFtF qHynGtzyF lG plns Fnlwp+ tG nly HFp mlFpF JspEp
tG yppoF Gspx lyo otFnlEo Gsp zypF tG ozpF yzG yppo+ Gz lnstpIp Gtxp lyo
qEpDHpynA wznlwtBlGtzy- jsp SllE JlIpwpGF lEp FtxCwp Gz HyopEFGlyo+ mHG yzG
FxzzGs pyzHrs qzE xzFG CHECzFpF- jsp FAxxwpG JlIpwpGF ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw
zq QtrHEp 4-%[ slIp Gsp Flxp zEGszyzExlw CEzCpEGtpF+ mHG lEp FxzzGspE-
QtrHEp 4-%fi otFCwlAF ly YXh ’yHnwplE xlrypGtn EpFzylynp( Ftrylw+ Jstns
lCCplEF Gz mp nzxCzFpo zq FxzzGs nzxCzypyGF lyo tFzwlGpo FCtvpF+ CwHF
Fzxp yztFp- jsp JlIpwpG GElyFqzEx+ HFtyr l FAxxwpG mlFtF+ tF FszJy ty Gsp
wzJpE wpqG Clypw- jsp JlIpwpG nzpffntpyGF lEp lEElyrpo ty EzJF+ qEzx wzJpFG
Fnlwp lG Gsp mzGGzx+ Gz strspFG Fnlwp lG Gsp GzC- jsp wpyrGs zq plns wtyp
FprxpyG tyotnlGpF Gsp FtBp zq Gsp nzpffntpyG- jsp mzGGzx EtrsG Clypw FszJF
Gsp JlIpwpG nzpffntpyGF lqGpE GspA slIp mppy GsEpFszwopo- jsp GsEpFszwo
CEznpoHEp+ rtIpy mpwzJ ty pDHlGtzy ’4-[–(+ tF Gsp Flxp FzqG!GsEpFszwotyr
EHwp GslG lEtFpF ty Gsp wlFFz CEznpoHEp qzE wtyplE EprEpFFtzy ’ipnGtzy “-?-=(-
YzGtnp GslG xlyA zq Gsp FxlwwpE nzpffntpyGF slIp mppy FpG Gz BpEz- jsp
rEppy nHEIp ty Gsp GzC Clypw FszJF Gsp mlnv!GElyFqzEx zq Gsp GsEpFszwopo
nzpffntpyGF9 GstF tF Gsp FxzzGspo IpEFtzy zq Gsp zEtrtylw Ftrylw- Ty Gsp ypKG
FpnGtzy Jp rtIp Gsp opGltwF zq GstF CEznpFF+ tynwHotyr Gsp nzyFGEHnGtzy zq
JlIpwpGF lyo Gsp GsEpFszwotyr EHwp-
4-–-0 blIpwpG MlFpF lyo Gsp blIpwpG jElyFqzEx

Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp rtIp opGltwF zy Gsp nzyFGEHnGtzy lyo ¨wGpEtyr zq JlIpwpGF-
blIpwpG mlFpF lEp rpypElGpo mA GElyFwlGtzyF lyo otwlGtzyF zq l Ftyrwp Fnlw!
tyr qHynGtzy φ’K( ’lwFz vyzJy lF Gsp qlGspE(- jsp Epo nHEIpF ty QtrHEp 4-%]
lEp Gsp SllE lyo FAxxwpG,fl Fnlwtyr qHynGtzyF- jsp SllE mlFtF tF ClEGtnH!
wlEwA plFA Gz HyopEFGlyo+ pFCpntlwwA qzE lyAzyp JtGs pKCpEtpynp ty lylwAFtF
zq IlEtlynp zE GEppF+ Ftynp tG CEzoHnpF l CtpnpJtFp!nzyFGlyG EpCEpFpyGlGtzy-
jsHF tq φ’K( ˆ T’K ∈ ”$W %fl(+ Gspy φ$Wv ’K( ˆ φ’K}v(+ v ly tyGprpE+ rpypElGpF
ly zEGszyzExlw mlFtF qzE qHynGtzyF JtGs uHxCF√ lG Gsp tyGprpEF- Nlww GstF Epq,
pEpynp FClnp a$ - jsp otwlGtzyF φ0Wv ’K( ˆ =φ’=K}v( qzEx ly zEGszyzExlw
mlFtF qzE l FClnp a0 ⊃ a$ zq qHynGtzyF CtpnpJtFp nzyFGlyG zy tyGpEIlwF zq
wpyrGs =0 - Ty qlnG+ xzEp rpypElwwA Jp slIp ± ± ± ⊃ a0 ⊃ a$ ⊃ a}0 ⊃ ± ± ± JspEp
plns aH tF FClyypo mA φHWv ˆ =H.= φ’=H K } v(-
YzJ Gz Gsp opÿtGtzy zq JlIpwpGF- Ty lylwAFtF zq IlEtlynp+ Jp zqGpy EpC!
EpFpyG l CltE zq xplyF <0 lyo <= mA GsptE rElyo xply < ˆ =0 ’<0 ) <= (+ lyo
Gspy l nzyGElFG α ˆ 0= ’<0 } <= (- L FtxCwt¨nlGtzy znnHEF tq Gsp nzyGElFG α tF
IpEA Fxlww+ mpnlHFp Gspy Jp nly FpG tG Gz BpEz- Ty l FtxtwlE xlyypE Jp xtrsG
EpCEpFpyG l qHynGtzy ty aH)0 mA l nzxCzypyG ty aH CwHF Gsp nzxCzypyG ty
Gsp zEGszrzylw nzxCwpxpyG bH zq aH Gz aH)0 + JEtGGpy lF aH)0 ˆ aH ⊕ bH -
jsp nzxCzypyG ty bH EpCEpFpyGF opGltw+ lyo Jp xtrsG JtFs Gz FpG Fzxp pwp!
xpyGF zq GstF nzxCzypyG Gz BpEz- TG tF plFA Gz Fpp GslG Gsp qHynGtzyF µ’K}v(
4-– blIpwpG ixzzGstyr %fifi
NMR Signal
60
40
20
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Wavelet Transform - Original Signal Wavelet Transform - WaveShrunk Signal
itrylw itrylw
b8 b8
b7 b7
b6 b6
b5 b5
b4 b4
b3 b3
a3 a3
0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000
QTRIFD 4W06W jsp GzC Clypw FszJF ly Ych Ftrylw+ JtGs Gsp JlIpwpG,FsEHyv
IpEFtzy FHCpEtxCzFpo ty rEppy- jsp wzJpE wpqG Clypw EpCEpFpyGF Gsp JlIpwpG GElyF,
qzEx zq Gsp zEtrtylw Ftrylw+ ozJy Gz a3 + HFtyr Gsp FAxxwpG,] mlFtF- Plns nzpff,
ntpyG tF EpCEpFpyGpo mA Gsp sptrsG ’CzFtGtIp zE yprlGtIp( zq Gsp IpEGtnlw mlE- jsp
wzJpE EtrsG Clypw EpCEpFpyGF Gsp JlIpwpG nzpffntpyGF lqGpE mptyr FsEHyvpy HFtyr
Gsp UlIpFsEtyv qHynGtzy ty i,f ki+ Jstns txCwpxpyGF Gsp iHEpisEtyv xpGszo
zq JlIpwpG lolCGlGtzy zq Ozyzsz lyo UzsyFGzyp-
%fi] 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
Haar Basis Symmlet Basis
φ’K( φ’K(
µ’K( µ’K(
QTRIFD 4W07W jsp SllE lyo FAxxwpG qlGspE ’Fnlwtyr( JlIpwpG φ’K( lyo xzGspE
JlIpwpG µ’K(-
rpypElGpo mA Gsp xzGspE JlIpwpG µ’K( ˆ φ’=K(}φ’=K}%( qzEx ly zEGszyzE!

xlw mlFtF qzE b$ qzE Gsp SllE qlxtwA- tvpJtFp µHWv ˆ =H.= µ’=H K } v( qzEx
l mlFtF qzE bH -
YzJ aH)0 ˆ aH ⊕ bH ˆ aH}0 ⊕ bH}0 ⊕ bH + Fz mpFtopF EpCEpFpyGtyr l
qHynGtzy mA tGF wpIpw!u opGltw lyo wpIpw!u EzHrs nzxCzypyGF+ Gsp wlGGpE nly
mp mEzvpy ozJy Gz wpIpw!’u } %( opGltw lyo EzHrs+ lyo Fz zy- QtylwwA Jp rpG
l EpCEpFpyGlGtzy zq Gsp qzEx aU ˆ a$ ⊕ b$ ⊕ b0 ± ± ± ⊕ bU}0 - QtrHEp 4-%[
zy Clrp %fi4 FszJF ClEGtnHwlE JlIpwpGF µHWv ’K(-
YzGtnp GslG Ftynp GspFp FClnpF lEp zEGszrzylw+ lww Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF lEp
zEGszyzExlw- Ty qlnG+ tq Gsp ozxlty tF otFnEpGp JtGs Y ˆ =U ’Gtxp( CztyGF+
GstF tF lF qlE lF Jp nly rz- jspEp lEp =H mlFtF pwpxpyGF lG wpIpw u+ lyo
lootyr HC+ Jp slIp l GzGlw zq =U } % pwpxpyGF ty Gsp bH + lyo zyp ty a$ -
jstF FGEHnGHEpo zEGszyzExlw mlFtF lwwzJF qzE l xHwGtEpFzwHGtzy lylwAFtF+
Jstns Jp twwHFGElGp ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy-
bstwp spwCqHw qzE HyopEFGlyotyr Gsp nzyFGEHnGtzy lmzIp+ Gsp SllE mlFtF
tF zqGpy Gzz nzlEFp qzE CElnGtnlw CHECzFpF- QzEGHylGpwA+ xlyA nwpIpE JlIpwpG
mlFpF slIp mppy tyIpyGpo- QtrHEpF 4-%[ lyo 4-%] tynwHop Gsp OlHmpnstpF
FAxxwpG,fl mlFtF- jstF mlFtF slF FxzzGspE pwpxpyGF Gsly Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr
SllE mlFtF+ mHG GspEp tF l GElopzΓ9
| Plns JlIpwpG slF l FHCCzEG nzIpEtyr %4 nzyFpnHGtIp Gtxp tyGpEIlwF+

ElGspE Gsly zyp qzE Gsp SllE mlFtF- XzEp rpypElwwA+ Gsp FAxxwpG!C
qlxtwA slF l FHCCzEG zq =C } % nzyFpnHGtIp tyGpEIlwF- jsp JtopE Gsp
FHCCzEG+ Gsp xzEp Gtxp Gsp JlIpwpG slF Gz otp Gz BpEz+ lyo Fz tG nly
4-– blIpwpG ixzzGstyr %fi–
lnstpIp GstF xzEp FxzzGswA- YzGp GslG Gsp pΓpnGtIp FHCCzEG FppxF Gz
mp xHns ylEEzJpE-
| jsp FAxxwpG!C JlIpwpG µ’K( slF C IlytFstyr xzxpyGF: GslG tF+

∫
µ’K(KH oK ˆ $W u ˆ $W , , , W C } %,
Zyp txCwtnlGtzy tF GslG lyA zEopE!C CzwAyzxtlw zIpE Gsp Y ˆ =U GtxpF

CztyGF tF EpCEzoHnpo pKlnGwA ty a$ ’PKpEntFp 4-%](- Ty GstF FpyFp a$
tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp yHww FClnp zq Gsp FxzzGstyr!FCwtyp CpylwGA- jsp
SllE JlIpwpGF slIp zyp IlytFstyr xzxpyG+ lyo a$ nly EpCEzoHnp lyA
nzyFGlyG qHynGtzy-
jsp FAxxwpG!C Fnlwtyr qHynGtzyF lEp zyp zq xlyA qlxtwtpF zq JlIpwpG

rpypElGzEF- jsp zCpElGtzyF lEp FtxtwlE Gz GszFp qzE Gsp SllE mlFtF9
| Tq
√ a$ tF FClyypo mA φ’K }(v(+ Gspy a0 ⊃ a$ tF FClyypo mA φ0Wv ’K( ˆ
=φ’=K}v( lyo φ’K( ˆ v∈C s’v(φ0Wv ’K(+ qzE Fzxp ¨wGpE nzpffntpyGF
s’v(-
(
| b$ tF FClyypo mA µ’K( ˆ v∈C r’v(φ0Wv ’K(+ JtGs ¨wGpE nzpffntpyGF
r’v( ˆ ’}%(0}v s’% } v(-
4-–-1 LolCGtIp blIpwpG QtwGpEtyr

blIpwpGF lEp ClEGtnHwlEwA HFpqHw Jspy Gsp olGl lEp xplFHEpo zy l HytqzEx
wlGGtnp+ FHns lF l otFnEpGtBpo Ftrylw+ txlrp+ zE l Gtxp FpEtpF- bp Jtww qznHF zy
Gsp zyp!otxpyFtzylw nlFp+ lyo slItyr Y ˆ =U wlGGtnp!CztyGF tF nzyIpytpyG-
iHCCzFp A tF Gsp EpFCzyFp IpnGzE+ lyo b tF Gsp Y ×Y zEGszyzExlw JlIpwpG
mlFtF xlGEtK pIlwHlGpo lG Gsp Y HytqzExwA FClnpo zmFpEIlGtzyF- jspy A{ ˆ
bj A tF nlwwpo Gsp JlIpwpG GElyFqzEx zq A ’lyo tF Gsp qHww wplFG FDHlEpF
EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyG(- L CzCHwlE xpGszo qzE lolCGtIp JlIpwpG ¨GGtyr tF
vyzJy lF ikhP FsEtyvlrp ’iGpty kymtlFpo htFv PFGtxlGtzy+ Ozyzsz lyo
UzsyFGzyp ’%––?((- bp FGlEG JtGs Gsp nEtGpEtzy
xty KKA } bθKK== ) =λKKθKK0 W ’4-[](
Jstns tF Gsp Flxp lF Gsp wlFFz nEtGpEtzy ty NslCGpE “- MpnlHFp b tF zE!

GszyzExlw+ GstF wploF Gz Gsp FtxCwp FzwHGtzy9
θ—H ˆ Ftry’AH{ (’KAH{ K } λ() , ’4-[–(
jsp wplFG FDHlEpF nzpffntpyGF lEp GElyFwlGpo GzJlEo BpEz+ lyo GEHynlGpo
lG BpEz- jsp ¨GGpo qHynGtzy ’IpnGzE( tF Gspy rtIpy mA Gsp tyIpEFp JlIpwpG
GElyFqzEx —D ˆ bθ-—
%]/ 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
√
L FtxCwp nsztnp qzE λ tF λ ˆ σ = wzr Y + JspEp σ tF ly pFGtxlGp zq Gsp
FGlyolEo opItlGtzy zq Gsp yztFp- bp nly rtIp Fzxp xzGtIlGtzy qzE GstF nsztnp-
itynp b tF ly zEGszyzExlw GElyFqzExlGtzy+ tq Gsp pwpxpyGF zq A lEp JstGp
yztFp ’tyopCpyopyG RlHFFtly IlEtlGpF JtGs xply $ lyo IlEtlynp σ = (+ Gspy
Fz lEp A{ - QHEGspExzEp tq Elyozx IlEtlmwpF e0 W e= W , , , W eY lEp JstGp √ yztFp+
Gsp pKCpnGpo xlKtxHx zq Ke√ H KW u ˆ %W , , , W Y tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA σ = wzr Y -
Spynp lww nzpffntpyGF mpwzJ σ = wzr Y lEp wtvpwA Gz mp yztFp lyo lEp FpG Gz
BpEz-
jsp FClnp b nzHwo mp lyA mlFtF zq zEGszyzExlw qHynGtzyF9 CzwAyzxtlwF+
ylGHElw FCwtypF zE nzFtyHFztoF- bslG xlvpF JlIpwpGF FCpntlw tF Gsp ClEGtnHwlE
qzEx zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF HFpo+ Jstns lwwzJF qzE l EpCEpFpyGlGtzy wznlwtBpo ty
Gtxp lyo ty qEpDHpynA-
pG&F wzzv lrlty lG Gsp YXh Ftrylw zq QtrHEp 4-%fi- jsp JlIpwpG GElyFqzEx
JlF nzxCHGpo HFtyr l FAxxwpG}] mlFtF- YzGtnp GslG Gsp nzpffntpyGF oz yzG
opFnpyo lww Gsp JlA Gz a$ + mHG FGzC lG a3 Jstns slF %[ mlFtF qHynGtzyF-
LF Jp lFnpyo Gz plns wpIpw zq opGltw+ Gsp nzpffntpyGF rpG FxlwwpE+ pKnpCG ty
wznlGtzyF JspEp FCtvA mpslItzE tF CEpFpyG- jsp JlIpwpG nzpffntpyGF EpCEpFpyG
nslElnGpEtFGtnF zq Gsp Ftrylw wznlwtBpo ty Gtxp ’Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF lG plns
wpIpw lEp GElyFwlGtzyF zq plns zGspE( lyo wznlwtBpo ty qEpDHpynA- Plns otwlGtzy
tynEplFpF Gsp opGltw mA l qlnGzE zq GJz+ lyo ty GstF FpyFp nzEEpFCzyoF Gz
ozHmwtyr Gsp qEpDHpynA ty l GElotGtzylw QzHEtpE EpCEpFpyGlGtzy- Ty qlnG+ l
xzEp xlGspxlGtnlw HyopEFGlyotyr zq JlIpwpGF EpIplwF GslG Gsp JlIpwpGF lG
l ClEGtnHwlE Fnlwp slIp l QzHEtpE GElyFqzEx GslG tF EpFGEtnGpo Gz l wtxtGpo
Elyrp zE znGlIp zq qEpDHpyntpF-
jsp FsEtyvtyr#GEHynlGtzy ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw JlF lnstpIpo HFtyr Gsp ikhP
lCCEzlns opFnEtmpo ty Gsp tyGEzoHnGtzy Gz GstF FpnGtzy- jsp zEGszyzExlw
Y × Y mlFtF xlGEtK b slF nzwHxyF Jstns lEp Gsp JlIpwpG mlFtF qHynGtzyF
pIlwHlGpo lG Gsp Y Gtxp CztyGF- Ty ClEGtnHwlE+ ty GstF nlFp GspEp Jtww mp %[
nzwHxyF nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz Gsp φ3Wv ’K(+ lyo Gsp EpxltyopE opIzGpo Gz Gsp
µHWv ’K(W u ˆ ?W , , , W %%- Ty CElnGtnp λ opCpyoF zy Gsp yztFp IlEtlynp+ lyo slF
Gz mp pFGtxlGpo qEzx Gsp olGl ’FHns lF Gsp IlEtlynp zq Gsp nzpffntpyGF lG
Gsp strspFG wpIpw(-
YzGtnp Gsp FtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy Gsp ikhP nEtGpEtzy ’4-[]( zy Clrp %fi–+
lyo Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp nEtGpEtzy ’4-=%( zy Clrp %4[9
| MzGs lEp stpElEnstnlwwA FGEHnGHEpo qEzx nzlEFp Gz ÿp opGltw+ lwGszHrs

JlIpwpGF lEp lwFz wznlwtBpo ty Gtxp JtGsty plns EpFzwHGtzy wpIpw-
| jsp FCwtypF mHtwo ty l mtlF GzJlEo FxzzGs qHynGtzyF mA txCzFtyr

otΓpEpyGtlw FsEtyvtyr nzyFGlyGF ov - PlEwA IpEFtzyF zq ikhP FsEtyvlrp
GEplGpo lww FnlwpF pDHlwwA- jsp i)UlIpwpGF qHynGtzy UlIpFsEtyvb( slF
xlyA zCGtzyF+ Fzxp zq Jstns lwwzJ qzE otΓpEpyGtlw FsEtyvlrp-
| jsp FCwtyp = CpylwGA nlHFp CHEp FsEtyvlrp+ Jstwp Gsp ikhP 0

CpylwGA ozpF FsEtyvlrp lyo FpwpnGtzy-
PKpEntFpF %]%
XzEp rpypElwwA FxzzGstyr FCwtypF lnstpIp nzxCEpFFtzy zq Gsp zEtrtylw Ftrylw

mA txCzFtyr FxzzGsypFF+ Jstwp JlIpwpGF txCzFp FClEFtGA- QtrHEp 4-%– nzx!
ClEpF l JlIpwpG ¨G ’HFtyr ikhP FsEtyvlrp( Gz l FxzzGstyr FCwtyp ¨G ’HFtyr
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy( zy GJz pKlxCwpF otΓpEpyG ty ylGHEp- QzE Gsp YXh olGl ty
Gsp HCCpE Clypw+ Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp tyGEzoHnpF opGltw pIpEAJspEp ty zEopE
Gz nlCGHEp Gsp opGltw ty Gsp tFzwlGpo FCtvpF: Gsp JlIpwpG ¨G ytnpwA wznlwtBpF
Gsp FCtvpF- Ty Gsp wzJpE Clypw+ Gsp GEHp qHynGtzy tF FxzzGs+ lyo Gsp yztFp tF
EpwlGtIpwA strs- jsp JlIpwpG ¨G slF wpG ty Fzxp lootGtzylw lyo HyypnpFFlEA
JtrrwpF1l CEtnp tG ClAF ty IlEtlynp qzE Gsp lootGtzylw lolCGtItGA-
jsp JlIpwpG GElyFqzEx tF yzG CpEqzExpo mA xlGEtK xHwGtCwtnlGtzy lF ty
A{ ˆ bj A- Ty qlnG+ HFtyr nwpIpE CAElxtolw FnspxpF A{ nly mp zmGltypo
ty Z’Y ( nzxCHGlGtzyF+ Jstns tF pIpy qlFGpE Gsly Gsp Y wzr’Y ( zq Gsp qlFG
QzHEtpE GElyFqzEx ’QQj(- bstwp Gsp rpypElw nzyFGEHnGtzy tF mpAzyo Gsp
FnzCp zq GstF mzzv+ tG tF plFA Gz Fpp qzE Gsp SllE mlFtF ’PKpEntFp 4-%–(-
tvpJtFp+ Gsp tyIpEFp JlIpwpG GElyFqzEx bθ — tF lwFz Z’Y (-
jstF slF mppy l IpEA mEtpq rwtxCFp zq GstF IlFG lyo rEzJtyr ¨pwo- jspEp tF
l IpEA wlErp xlGspxlGtnlw lyo nzxCHGlGtzylw mlFp mHtwG zy JlIpwpGF- Xzo!
pEy txlrp nzxCEpFFtzy tF zqGpy CpEqzExpo HFtyr GJz!otxpyFtzylw JlIpwpG
EpCEpFpyGlGtzyF-
MtmwtzrElCstn dzGpF
iCwtypF lyo M!FCwtypF lEp otFnHFFpo ty opGltw ty op MzzE ’%–fi](- REppy
lyo itwIpExly ’%––?( lyo blsml ’%––$( rtIp l GszEzHrs GEplGxpyG zq
FxzzGstyr FCwtypF lyo Gsty!CwlGp FCwtypF: Gsp wlGGpE lwFz nzIpEF EpCEzoHntyr
vpEypw StwmpEG FClnpF- ipp lwFz RtEzFt pG lw- ’%––4( lyo PIrpytzH pG lw-
’=$$$( qzE nzyypnGtzyF mpGJppy xlyA yzyClElxpGEtn EprEpFFtzy GpnsytDHpF
HFtyr hVSi lCCEzlnspF- Xzopwtyr qHynGtzylw olGl+ lF ty ipnGtzy 4-=-“+ tF
nzIpEpo ty opGltw ty hlxFlA lyo itwIpExly ’%––fi(-
OlHmpnstpF ’%––=( tF l nwlFFtn lyo xlGspxlGtnlw GEplGxpyG zq JlIpwpGF-
ZGspE HFpqHw FzHEnpF lEp NsHt ’%––=( lyo btnvpEslHFpE ’%––?(- Ozyzsz lyo
UzsyFGzyp ’%––?( opIpwzCpo Gsp ikhP FsEtyvlrp lyo FpwpnGtzy GpnsyzwzrA
qEzx l FGlGtFGtnlw pFGtxlGtzy qElxpJzEv: Fpp lwFz atolvzItn ’%–––(- MEHnp
lyo Rlz ’%––[( tF l HFpqHw lCCwtpo tyGEzoHnGtzy+ Jstns lwFz opFnEtmpF Gsp
JlIpwpG FzqGJlEp ty i!f ki-
PKpEntFpF
PK- 4-% iszJ GslG Gsp GEHynlGpo CzJpE mlFtF qHynGtzyF ty ’4-“( EpCEpFpyG l
mlFtF qzE l nHmtn FCwtyp JtGs Gsp GJz vyzGF lF tyotnlGpo-
%]= 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
60
spline
wavelet
40
20
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000
NMR Signal
•
4
•
• •
•• • • •• • •
2
• •
• •••• •• • •• •• •
•
• •
• • •• • •
• • • • • •
• • • •• • • • • • • • • • ••
• •• • • • •• •
0
•• • •• •
n
• • • • • • •
• • • •• • • • • ••• •
• • • • •• • ••
•
• •• • • • ••
-2
• • • •
• ••• • spline • •
•• • wavelet
•• true
-4
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Smooth Function (Simulated)
QTRIFD 4W08W blIpwpG FxzzGstyr nzxClEpo JtGs FxzzGstyr FCwtypF zy GJz

pKlxCwpF- Plns Clypw nzxClEpF Gsp ikhP,FsEHyv JlIpwpG 6G Gz Gsp nEzFF,IlwtolGpo
FxzzGstyr FCwtyp 6G-
PKpEntFpF %]“
PK- 4-= iHCCzFp GslG MtWX ’K( tF ly zEopE!X M!FCwtyp opÿpo ty Gsp LC!
CpyotK zy Clrp %][ GsEzHrs Gsp FpDHpynp ’4-fifi(8’4-fi](-
’l( iszJ mA tyoHnGtzy GslG MtWX ’K( ˆ $ qzE K 0∈ ”τt W τt)X fl- jstF FszJF+ qzE
pKlxCwp+ GslG Gsp FHCCzEG zq nHmtn M!FCwtypF tF lG xzFG 4 vyzGF-
’m( iszJ mA tyoHnGtzy GslG MtWX ’K( / $ qzE K ∈ ’τt W τt)X (- jsp M!FCwtypF
lEp CzFtGtIp ty Gsp tyGpEtzE zq GsptE FHCCzEG-
(V)X
’n( iszJ mA tyoHnGtzy GslG tˆ0 MtWX ’K( ˆ % {K ∈ ”ξ$ W ξV)0 fl-
’o( iszJ GslG MtWX tF l CtpnpJtFp CzwAyzxtlw zq zEopE X ’oprEpp X } %(

zy ”ξ$ W ξV)0 fl+ JtGs mEplvF zywA lG Gsp vyzGF ξ0 W , , , W ξV -
’p( iszJ GslG ly zEopE!X M!FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzy tF Gsp opyFtGA qHynGtzy
zq l nzyIzwHGtzy zq X HytqzEx Elyozx IlEtlmwpF-
PK- 4-“ bEtGp l CEzrElx Gz EpCEzoHnp QtrHEp 4-“ zy Clrp %?4-
PK- 4-? NzyFtopE Gsp GEHynlGpo CzJpE FpEtpF EpCEpFpyGlGtzy qzE nHmtn FCwtypF
JtGs V tyGpEtzE vyzGF- pG
˜
∑ V
∑
q ’c( ˆ βH c H ) θv ’c } ξv (˜) , ’4-fi$(
Hˆ$ vˆ0
fEzIp GslG Gsp ylGHElw mzHyolEA nzyotGtzyF qzE ylGHElw nHmtn FCwtypF ’ipn!
Gtzy 4-=-%( txCwA Gsp qzwwzJtyr wtyplE nzyFGEltyGF zy Gsp nzpffntpyGF9
(V
β= ˆ $W θ ˆ $W
(Vvˆ0 v ’4-fi%(
β˜ ˆ $W vˆ0 v θv ˆ $,
ξ
Spynp opEtIp Gsp mlFtF ’4-?( lyo ’4-4(-
PK- 4-4 bEtGp l CEzrElx Gz nwlFFtqA Gsp Cszypxp olGl HFtyr l DHloElGtn otF!
nEtxtylyG lylwAFtF ’ipnGtzy ?-“(- itynp GspEp lEp xlyA nzEEpwlGpo qplGHEpF+
AzH FszHwo ¨wGpE Gspx HFtyr l FxzzGs mlFtF zq ylGHElw nHmtn FCwtypF ’ipn!
Gtzy 4-=-“(- Opntop mpqzEpslyo zy l FpEtpF zq Ïp otΓpEpyG nsztnpF qzE Gsp
yHxmpE lyo CzFtGtzy zq Gsp vyzGF+ lyo HFp Gpyqzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Gz xlvp
Gsp ÿlw FpwpnGtzy- jsp Cszypxp olGl lEp lIltwlmwp qEzx Gsp mzzv JpmFtGp
UUU!FGlG-FGlyDzEo-poH#PwpxiGlG plEy-
PK- 4-[ iHCCzFp AzH JtFs Gz ¨G l CpEtzotn qHynGtzy+ JtGs l vyzJy CpEtzo j -
OpFnEtmp szJ AzH nzHwo xzotqA Gsp GEHynlGpo CzJpE FpEtpF mlFtF Gz lnstpIp
GstF rzlw-
PK- 4-fi OpEtIlGtzy zq FxzzGstyr FCwtypF ’REppy lyo itwIpExly+ %––?(- iHC!
CzFp GslG Y ≥ =+ lyo GslG r tF Gsp ylGHElw nHmtn FCwtyp tyGpECzwlyG Gz Gsp
CltEF ·Kt W Bt •Y
0 + JtGs l ı K0 ı ± ± ± ı KY ı m- jstF tF l ylGHElw FCwtyp
%]? 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
JtGs l vyzG lG pIpEA Kt : mptyr ly Y !otxpyFtzylw FClnp zq qHynGtzyF+ Jp nly

opGpExtyp Gsp nzpffntpyGF FHns GslG tG tyGpECzwlGpF Gsp FpDHpynp Bt pKlnGwA-
pG r2 mp lyA zGspE otΓpEpyGtlmwp qHynGtzy zy ”lW mfl GslG tyGpECzwlGpF Gsp Y
CltEF-
’l( pG s’K( ˆ r2’K( } r’K(- kFp tyGprElGtzy mA ClEGF lyo Gsp qlnG GslG r tF
l ylGHElw nHmtn FCwtyp Gz FszJ GslG
∫ m Y
∑ }0
r ′′ ’K(s′′ ’K(oK ˆ } r ′′′ ’K)
H (·s’KH)0 ( } s’KH (• ’4-fi=(
l Hˆ0
ˆ $,
’m( Spynp FszJ GslG

∫ m ∫ m
′′ = =
r2 ’G( oG ≥ r ′′ ’G( oGW
l l
lyo GslG pDHlwtGA nly zywA szwo tq s tF topyGtnlwwA BpEz ty ”lW mfl-
’n( NzyFtopE Gsp CpylwtBpo wplFG FDHlEpF CEzmwpx
CY ∫ m D
∑
= ′′ =
xty ’At } q ’Kt (( ) λ q ’G( oG ,
q l
tˆ0
kFp ’m( Gz lErHp GslG Gsp xtytxtBpE xHFG mp l nHmtn FCwtyp JtGs vyzGF
lG plns zq Gsp Kt -
PK- 4-] Ty Gsp lCCpyotK Gz GstF nslCGpE Jp FszJ szJ Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp
nzxCHGlGtzyF nzHwo mp xzEp pffntpyGwA nlEEtpo zHG HFtyr l ’Y ) ?( otxpy!
Ftzylw mlFtF zq M!FCwtypF- OpFnEtmp l FwtrsGwA FtxCwpE Fnspxp HFtyr l ’Y ) =(
otxpyFtzylw M!FCwtyp mlFtF opÿpo zy Gsp Y } = tyGpEtzE vyzGF-
PK- 4-– OpEtIp Gsp hptyFns qzEx iλ ˆ ’T ) λV(}0 qzE Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp-
PK- 4-%$ OpEtIp ly pKCEpFFtzy qzE alE’q—λ ’K$ (( lyo mtlF’q—λ ’K$ ((- kFtyr Gsp
pKlxCwp ’4-==(+ nEplGp l IpEFtzy zq QtrHEp 4-– JspEp Gsp xply lyo FpIpElw
’CztyGJtFp( DHlyGtwpF zq q—λ ’K( lEp FszJy-
PK- 4-%% fEzIp GslG qzE l FxzzGstyr FCwtyp Gsp yHww FClnp zq V tF FClyypo
mA qHynGtzyF wtyplE ty c-
PK- 4-%= NslElnGpEtBp Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz Gsp qzwwzJtyr CEzmwpx+
Y
∑ ∫
xty hii’qW λ( ˆ Jt ·At } q ’Kt (•= ) λ ·q ′′ ’G(•= oGW ’4-fi“(
q
tˆ0
JspEp Gsp Jt ≥ $ lEp zmFpEIlGtzy JptrsGF-

NslElnGpEtBp Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz Gsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp CEzmwpx ’4-–( Jspy
Gsp GEltytyr olGl slIp GtpF ty c-
PKpEntFpF %]4
PK- 4-%“ dzH slIp ¨GGpo l FxzzGstyr FCwtyp q—λ Gz l FlxCwp zq Y CltEF
’Kt W At (- iHCCzFp AzH lHrxpyG AzHE zEtrtylw FlxCwp JtGs Gsp CltE K$ W q—λ ’K$ (+
lyo Ep¨G: opFnEtmp Gsp EpFHwG- kFp GstF Gz opEtIp Gsp Y !qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy
qzExHwl ’4-=[(-
PK- 4-%? OpEtIp Gsp nzyFGEltyGF zy Gsp αH ty Gsp Gsty!CwlGp FCwtyp pKCly!
Ftzy ’4-“–( Gz rHlElyGpp GslG Gsp CpylwGA U’q ( tF ÿtGp- SzJ pwFp nzHwo zyp
pyFHEp GslG Gsp CpylwGA JlF ÿtGp¯
PK- 4-%4 jstF pKpEntFp opEtIpF Fzxp zq Gsp EpFHwGF DHzGpo ty ipnGtzy 4-]-%-
iHCCzFp V’KW A( FlGtFqAtyr Gsp nzyotGtzyF ’4-?4( lyo wpG q ’K( ∈ SV - iszJ
GslG
’l( 〈V’±W Kt (W q 〉Sa ˆ q ’Kt (-
’m( 〈V’±W Kt (W V’±W KH (〉Sa ˆ V’Kt W KH (-

(Y
’n( Tq r’K( ˆ tˆ0 αt V’KW Kt (+ Gspy
Y ∑
∑ Y
U’r( ˆ V’Kt W KH (αt αH ,
tˆ0 Hˆ0
iHCCzFp GslG r2’K( ˆ r’K( ) ρ’K(+ JtGs ρ’K( ∈ SV + lyo zEGszrzylw ty SV

Gz plns zq V’KW Kt (W t ˆ %W , , , W Y - iszJ GslG
’o(
Y
∑ Y
∑
r( ≥
’At W r2’Kt (( ) λU’2 ’At W r’Kt (( ) λU’r( ’4-fi?(
tˆ0 tˆ0
JtGs pDHlwtGA tΓ ρ’K( ˆ $-
PK- 4-%[ NzyFtopE Gsp Etorp EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx ’4-4“(+ lyo lFFHxp X ≥ Y -
LFFHxp AzH slIp l vpEypw V GslG nzxCHGpF Gsp tyypE CEzoHnG V’KW A( ˆ
(X
xˆ0 sx ’K(sx ’A(-
’l( OpEtIp ’4-[=( zy Clrp %fi% ty Gsp GpKG- SzJ JzHwo AzH nzxCHGp Gsp
xlGEtnpF a lyo Oγ + rtIpy V¯ Spynp FszJ GslG ’4-[“( tF pDHtIlwpyG
Gz ’4-4“(-
’m( iszJ GslG
—D ˆ S —
ˆ V’V ) λT(}0 AW ’4-fi4(
JspEp S tF Gsp Y × X xlGEtK zq pIlwHlGtzyF sx ’Kt (+ lyo V ˆ SSj

Gsp Y × Y xlGEtK zq tyypE!CEzoHnGF s’Kt (j s’KH (-
%][ 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
’n( iszJ GslG
q—’K( ˆ s’K(j —
Y
∑
ˆ —t
V’KW Kt (α ’4-fi[(
tˆ0
— ˆ ’V ) λT(}0 A-
lyo α
’o( SzJ JzHwo AzH xzotqA AzHE FzwHGtzy tq X ı Y ¯
PK- 4-%fi iszJ szJ Gz nzyIpEG Gsp otFnEpGp ptrpy!opnzxCzFtGtzy zq V ty

ipnGtzy 4-]-= Gz pFGtxlGpF zq Gsp ptrpyqHynGtzyF zq V-
PK- 4-%] jsp JlIpwpG qHynGtzy µ’K( zq Gsp FAxxwpG!C JlIpwpG mlFtF slF
IlytFstyr xzxpyGF HC Gz zEopE C- iszJ GslG GstF txCwtpF GslG CzwAyzxtlwF
zq zEopE C lEp EpCEpFpyGpo pKlnGwA ty a$ + opÿpo zy Clrp %fi[-
PK- 4-%– iszJ GslG Gsp SllE JlIpwpG GElyFqzEx zq l Ftrylw zq wpyrGs Y ˆ =U
nly mp nzxCHGpo ty Z’Y ( nzxCHGlGtzyF-
LCCpyotK9 NzxCHGlGtzyF qzE iCwtypF

Ty GstF LCCpyotK+ Jp opFnEtmp Gsp M!FCwtyp mlFtF qzE EpCEpFpyGtyr CzwAyz!
xtlw FCwtypF- bp lwFz otFnHFF GsptE HFp ty Gsp nzxCHGlGtzyF zq FxzzGstyr
FCwtypF-
X,FCwtypF
MpqzEp Jp nly rpG FGlEGpo+ Jp yppo Gz lHrxpyG Gsp vyzG FpDHpynp opÿpo
ty ipnGtzy 4-=- pG ξ$ ı ξ0 lyo ξV ı ξV)0 mp GJz mzHyolEA vyzGF+ Jstns
GACtnlwwA opÿp Gsp ozxlty zIpE Jstns Jp JtFs Gz pIlwHlGp zHE FCwtyp- bp
yzJ opÿp Gsp lHrxpyGpo vyzG FpDHpynp τ FHns GslG
| τ0 ≤ τ= ≤ ± ± ± ≤ τX ≤ ξ$ :
| τH)X ˆ ξH W u ˆ %W ± ± ± W V:
| ξV)0 ≤ τV)X )0 ≤ τV)X )= ≤ ± ± ± ≤ τV)=X ,
jsp lnGHlw IlwHpF zq GspFp lootGtzylw vyzGF mpAzyo Gsp mzHyolEA lEp lEmt!
GElEA+ lyo tG tF nHFGzxlEA Gz xlvp Gspx lww Gsp Flxp lyo pDHlw Gz ξ$ lyo
ξV)0 + EpFCpnGtIpwA-
OpyzGp mA MtWx ’K( Gsp tGs M!FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzy zq zEopE x qzE Gsp
vyzG!FpDHpynp τ + x ≤ X - jspA lEp opÿpo EpnHEFtIpwA ty GpExF zq otItopo
LCCpyotK9 NzxCHGlGtzyF qzE iCwtypF %]fi
otΓpEpynpF lF qzwwzJF9
{
% tq τt ≤ K ı τt)0
MtW0 ’K( ˆ ’4-fifi(
$ zGspEJtFp
qzE t ˆ %W , , , W V ) =X } %- jspFp lEp lwFz vyzJy lF SllE mlFtF qHynGtzyF-
K } τt τt)x } K
MtWx ’K( ˆ MtWx}0 ’K( ) Mt)0Wx}0 ’K(
τt)x}0 } τt τt)x } τt)0
qzE t ˆ %W , , , W V ) =X } x-
’4-fi](
jsHF JtGs X ˆ ?+ MtW3 W t ˆ %W ± ± ± W V ) ? lEp Gsp V ) ? nHmtn M!FCwtyp

mlFtF qHynGtzyF qzE Gsp vyzG FpDHpynp ξ- jstF EpnHEFtzy nly mp nzyGty!
Hpo lyo Jtww rpypElGp Gsp M!FCwtyp mlFtF qzE lyA zEopE FCwtyp- QtrHEp 4-=$
FszJF Gsp FpDHpynp zq M!FCwtypF HC Gz zEopE qzHE JtGs vyzGF lG Gsp CztyGF
$,$W $,%W , , , W %,$- itynp Jp slIp nEplGpo Fzxp oHCwtnlGp vyzGF+ Fzxp nlEp
slF Gz mp Glvpy Gz lIzto otItFtzy mA BpEz- Tq Jp lozCG Gsp nzyIpyGtzy
GslG MtW0 ˆ $ tq τt ˆ τt)0 + Gspy mA tyoHnGtzy MtWx ˆ $ tq τt ˆ τt)0 ˆ
, , , ˆ τt)x - YzGp lwFz GslG ty Gsp nzyFGEHnGtzy lmzIp+ zywA Gsp FHmFpG
MtWx W t ˆ X } x ) %W , , , W X ) V lEp EpDHtEpo qzE Gsp M!FCwtyp mlFtF
zq zEopE x ı X JtGs vyzGF ξ-
jz qHwwA HyopEFGlyo Gsp CEzCpEGtpF zq GspFp qHynGtzyF+ lyo Gz FszJ GslG
GspA oz tyoppo FCly Gsp FClnp zq nHmtn FCwtypF qzE Gsp vyzG FpDHpynp+ Ep!
DHtEpF lootGtzylw xlGspxlGtnlw xlnstypEA+ tynwHotyr Gsp CEzCpEGtpF zq ot!
Itopo otΓpEpynpF- PKpEntFp 4-= pKCwzEpF GspFp tFFHpF-
jsp FnzCp zq M!FCwtypF tF ty qlnG mtrrpE Gsly loIpEGtFpo spEp+ lyo slF Gz
oz JtGs vyzG oHCwtnlGtzy- Tq Jp oHCwtnlGp ly tyGpEtzE vyzG ty Gsp nzyFGEHn!
Gtzy zq Gsp τ FpDHpynp lmzIp+ lyo Gspy rpypElGp Gsp M!FCwtyp FpDHpynp lF
mpqzEp+ Gsp EpFHwGtyr mlFtF FClyF Gsp FClnp zq CtpnpJtFp CzwAyzxtlwF JtGs
zyp wpFF nzyGtyHzHF opEtIlGtIp lG Gsp oHCwtnlGpo vyzG- Ty rpypElw+ tq ty lo!
otGtzy Gz Gsp EpCplGpo mzHyolEA vyzGF+ Jp tynwHop Gsp tyGpEtzE vyzG ξH
% ≤ EH ≤ X GtxpF+ Gspy Gsp wzJpFG!zEopE opEtIlGtIp Gz mp otFnzyGtyHzHF
lG K ˆ ξH Jtww mp zEopE X } EH - jsHF qzE nHmtn FCwtypF JtGs yz EpCplGF+
EH ˆ %W u ˆ %W , , , W V+ lyo lG plns tyGpEtzE vyzG Gsp GstEo opEtIlGtIpF ’? } %(
lEp otFnzyGtyHzHF- hpCplGtyr Gsp uGs vyzG GsEpp GtxpF wploF Gz l otFnzyGty!
HzHF %FG opEtIlGtIp: EpCplGtyr tG qzHE GtxpF wploF Gz l otFnzyGtyHzHF BpEzGs
opEtIlGtIp+ t-p-+ Gsp qHynGtzy tF otFnzyGtyHzHF lG K ˆ ξH - jstF tF pKlnGwA JslG
slCCpyF lG Gsp mzHyolEA vyzGF: Jp EpCplG Gsp vyzGF X GtxpF+ Fz Gsp FCwtyp
mpnzxpF otFnzyGtyHzHF lG Gsp mzHyolEA vyzGF ’t-p-+ Hyopÿpo mpAzyo Gsp
mzHyolEA(-
jsp wznlw FHCCzEG zq M!FCwtypF slF txCzEGlyG nzxCHGlGtzylw txCwtnl!
GtzyF+ pFCpntlwwA Jspy Gsp yHxmpE zq vyzGF V tF wlErp- plFG FDHlEpF nzx!
CHGlGtzyF JtGs Y zmFpEIlGtzyF lyo V ) X IlEtlmwpF ’mlFtF qHynGtzyF( Glvp
Z’Y ’V ) X (= ) ’V ) X (˜ ( 7zCF ’7zlGtyr CztyG zCpElGtzyF-( Tq V tF Fzxp
lCCEpntlmwp qElnGtzy zq Y + GstF wploF Gz Z’Y ˜ ( lwrzEtGsxF Jstns mpnzxpF
%]] 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
B-splines of Order 1
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
QTRIFD 4W1.W jsp FpDHpynp zq M,FCwtypF HC Gz zEopE qzHE JtGs Gpy vyzGF pIpywA
FClnpo qEzx / Gz %- jsp M,FCwtypF slIp wznlw FHCCzEG‘ GspA lEp yzyBpEz zy ly
tyGpEIlw FClyypo mA X ) % vyzGF-
LCCpyotK9 NzxCHGlGtzyF qzE iCwtypF %]–
HylnnpCGlmwp qzE wlErp Y - Tq Gsp Y zmFpEIlGtzyF lEp FzEGpo+ Gsp Y ×’V )X (

EprEpFFtzy xlGEtK nzyFtFGtyr zq Gsp V ) X M!FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF pIlwH!
lGpo lG Gsp Y CztyGF slF xlyA BpEzF+ Jstns nly mp pKCwztGpo Gz EpoHnp Gsp
nzxCHGlGtzylw nzxCwpKtGA mlnv Gz Z’Y (- bp Glvp GstF HC qHEGspE ty Gsp
ypKG FpnGtzy-
NzxCHGlGtzyF qzE ixzzGstyr iCwtypF

LwGszHrs ylGHElw FCwtypF ’ipnGtzy 4-=-%( CEzItop l mlFtF qzE FxzzGstyr
FCwtypF+ tG tF nzxCHGlGtzylwwA xzEp nzyIpytpyG (
Gz zCpElGp ty Gsp wlErpE FClnp
Y )3
zq HynzyFGEltypo M!FCwtypF- bp JEtGp q ’K( ˆ 0 γH MH ’K(+ JspEp γH lEp
nzpffntpyGF lyo Gsp MH lEp Gsp nHmtn M!FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF- jsp FzwHGtzy
wzzvF Gsp Flxp lF mpqzEp+
— ˆ ’Mj M ) λΩM (}0 Mj AW

γ ’4-fi–(
pKnpCG yzJ Gsp Y × Y xlGEtK Y tF EpCwlnpo mA Gsp Y × ’Y ) ?( xlGEtK

M+ lyo FtxtwlEwA Gsp ’Y ) ?( × ’Y ) ?( CpylwGA xlGEtK ΩM EpCwlnpF Gsp
Y × Y otxpyFtzylw ΩY - LwGszHrs lG qlnp IlwHp tG FppxF GslG GspEp lEp
yz mzHyolEA opEtIlGtIp nzyFGEltyGF+ tG GHEyF zHG GslG Gsp CpylwGA GpEx
lHGzxlGtnlwwA txCzFpF Gspx mA rtItyr pΓpnGtIpwA tyÿtGp JptrsG Gz lyA yzy
BpEz opEtIlGtIp mpAzyo Gsp mzHyolEA- Ty CElnGtnp+ γ— tF EpFGEtnGpo Gz l wtyplE
FHmFClnp qzE Jstns Gsp CpylwGA tF lwJlAF ÿtGp-
itynp Gsp nzwHxyF zq M lEp Gsp pIlwHlGpo M!FCwtypF+ ty zEopE qEzx wpqG
Gz EtrsG lyo pIlwHlGpo lG Gsp FzEGpo IlwHpF zq c+ lyo Gsp nHmtn M!FCwtypF
slIp wznlw FHCCzEG+ M tF wzJpE ?!mlyopo- NzyFpDHpyGwA Gsp xlGEtK X ˆ
’MR M ) λΩ( tF ?!mlyopo lyo spynp tGF NszwpFvA opnzxCzFtGtzy X ˆ R
j j
nly mp nzxCHGpo plFtwA- Zyp Gspy FzwIpF γ ˆ M A mA mlnv!FHmFGtGHGtzy
Gz rtIp γ lyo spynp Gsp FzwHGtzy q— ty Z’Y ( zCpElGtzyF-
Ty CElnGtnp+ Jspy Y tF wlErp+ tG tF HyypnpFFlEA Gz HFp lww Y tyGpEtzE vyzGF+
lyo lyA EplFzylmwp Gstyytyr FGElGprA Jtww FlIp ty nzxCHGlGtzyF lyo slIp
yprwtrtmwp pΓpnG zy Gsp ¨G- QzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp FxzzGs-FCwtyp qHynGtzy ty i!
f ki HFpF ly lCCEzKtxlGpwA wzrlEtGsxtn FGElGprA9 tq Y ı 4$ lww vyzGF lEp
tynwHopo+ mHG pIpy lG Y ˆ 4W $$$ zywA =$? vyzGF lEp HFpo-
%–/ 4- MlFtF PKClyFtzyF lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy
jstF tF Clrp %–%
[
VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
Ty GstF nslCGpE Jp opFnEtmp l nwlFF zq EprEpFFtzy GpnsytDHpF GslG lnstpIp

7pKtmtwtGA ty pFGtxlGtyr Gsp EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzy q ’c( zIpE Gsp ozxlty ThC
mA ¨GGtyr l otΓpEpyG mHG FtxCwp xzopw FpClElGpwA lG plns DHpEA CztyG K$ -
jstF tF ozyp mA HFtyr zywA GszFp zmFpEIlGtzyF nwzFp Gz Gsp GlErpG CztyG K$ Gz
¨G Gsp FtxCwp xzopw+ lyo ty FHns l JlA GslG Gsp EpFHwGtyr pFGtxlGpo qHynGtzy
q—’c( tF FxzzGs ty ThC - jstF wznlwtBlGtzy tF lnstpIpo Itl l JptrsGtyr qHynGtzy
zE vpEypw Vλ ’K$ W Kt (+ Jstns lFFtryF l JptrsG Gz Kt mlFpo zy tGF otFGlynp qEzx
K$ - jsp vpEypwF Vλ lEp GACtnlwwA tyopKpo mA l ClElxpGpE λ GslG otnGlGpF
Gsp JtoGs zq Gsp yptrsmzEszzo- jspFp xpxzEA,mlFpo xpGszoF EpDHtEp ty
CEtyntCwp wtGGwp zE yz GEltytyr: lww Gsp JzEv rpGF ozyp lG pIlwHlGtzy Gtxp-
jsp zywA ClElxpGpE GslG yppoF Gz mp opGpExtypo qEzx Gsp GEltytyr olGl tF
λ- jsp xzopw+ szJpIpE+ tF Gsp pyGtEp GEltytyr olGl FpG-
bp lwFz otFnHFF xzEp rpypElw nwlFFpF zq vpEypw!mlFpo GpnsytDHpF + Jstns
Gtp ty JtGs FGEHnGHEpo xpGszoF ty zGspE nslCGpEF+ lyo lEp HFpqHw qzE opyFtGA
pFGtxlGtzy lyo nwlFFt¨nlGtzy-
jsp GpnsytDHpF ty GstF nslCGpE FszHwo yzG mp nzyqHFpo JtGs GszFp lFFz!
ntlGpo JtGs Gsp xzEp EpnpyG HFlrp zq Gsp CsElFp ˜vpEypw xpGszoF˙- Ty GstF
nslCGpE vpEypwF lEp xzFGwA HFpo lF l opItnp qzE wznlwtBlGtzy- bp otFnHFF vpE!
ypw xpGszoF ty ipnGtzyF 4-]+ %?-4-?+ %]-4 lyo NslCGpE %=: ty GszFp nzyGpKGF
Gsp vpEypw nzxCHGpF ly tyypE CEzoHnG ty l strs!otxpyFtzylw ’txCwtntG( qpl!
GHEp FClnp+ lyo tF HFpo qzE EprHwlEtBpo yzywtyplE xzopwtyr- bp xlvp Fzxp
nzyypnGtzyF Gz Gsp xpGszozwzrA ty GstF nslCGpE lG Gsp pyo zq ipnGtzy [-fi-
%–= [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
Nearest-Neighbor Kernel Epanechnikov Kernel
1.5
1.5
O O O O
O O
O O
O O OO O O O O
O O O O O O O O
O1O’K+ ( OO O
O OO O OO
O1’K+ ( OO O
OO OO
1.0
1.0
O O OO OO O O O OO OO
OO
O
OO
O O
OO
O
O
O OO O O
O
OO O • OO
O
OO
O
OO
O O
OO
O
O
O OO
• O
OO O
O
O
OO
O
OOO OO OOO OO
0.5
0.5
O O O O O O
O O
O O O O O O O O
O O O O
O OO O O O OO O O
O OO
O O O O OO
O O O
O O O O O O
O O
0.0
0.0
O O O OO O O O OO
O O O O O O
O OO O OO
-0.5
-0.5
O O O O
O O O O O O
O O
-1.0
-1.0
O O
O O
O O
0.0 0.2 0.4 K+ 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 K+ 0.6 0.8 1.0
QTRIFD 5W0W Ty plns Clypw %// CltEF Kt W Lt lEp rpypElGpo lG Elyozx qEzx Gsp
mwHp nHEIp JtGs RlHFFtly pEEzEF9 d ˆ Fty’?c( ) ε+ c ∼ k ”/W %7+ ε ∼ Y ’/W %.“(- Ty
Gsp wpqG Clypw Gsp rEppy nHEIp tF Gsp EpFHwG zq l “/,yplEpFG,yptrsmzE EHyytyr,xply
FxzzGspE- jsp Epo CztyG tF Gsp 6GGpo nzyFGlyG q1’K+ (+ lyo Gsp Epo ntEnwpF tyotnlGp
GszFp zmFpEIlGtzyF nzyGEtmHGtyr Gz Gsp 6G lG K+ - jsp Fzwto ApwwzJ Eprtzy tyotnlGpF
Gsp JptrsGF lFFtrypo Gz zmFpEIlGtzyF- Ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw+ Gsp rEppy nHEIp tF Gsp
vpEypw,JptrsGpo lIpElrp+ HFtyr ly PClypnsytvzI vpEypw JtGs ’slwq ( JtyozJ JtoGs
λ ˆ /,=-
”-0 Zyp,OtxpyFtzylw VpEypw ixzzGspEF

Ty NslCGpE =+ Jp xzGtIlGpo Gsp v8yplEpFG!yptrsmzE lIpElrp
q—’K( ˆ LIp’At KKt ∈ Yv ’K(( ’[-%(
lF ly pFGtxlGp zq Gsp EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzy P’d Kc ˆ K(- SpEp Yv ’K( tF Gsp FpG
zq v CztyGF yplEpFG Gz K ty FDHlEpo otFGlynp+ lyo LIp opyzGpF Gsp lIpElrp
’xply(- jsp topl tF Gz EpwlK Gsp opÿtGtzy zq nzyotGtzylw pKCpnGlGtzy+ lF
twwHFGElGpo ty Gsp wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp [-%+ lyo nzxCHGp ly lIpElrp ty l
yptrsmzEszzo zq Gsp GlErpG CztyG- Ty GstF nlFp Jp slIp HFpo Gsp “$!yplEpFG
yptrsmzEszzo1Gsp ¨G lG K$ tF Gsp lIpElrp zq Gsp “$ CltEF JszFp Kt IlwHpF
lEp nwzFpFG Gz K$ - jsp rEppy nHEIp tF GElnpo zHG lF Jp lCCwA GstF opÿtGtzy
lG otΓpEpyG IlwHpF K$ - jsp rEppy nHEIp tF mHxCA+ Ftynp q—’K( tF otFnzyGtyHzHF
ty K- LF Jp xzIp K$ qEzx wpqG Gz EtrsG+ Gsp v!yplEpFG yptrsmzEszzo EpxltyF
nzyFGlyG+ HyGtw l CztyG Kt Gz Gsp EtrsG zq K$ mpnzxpF nwzFpE Gsly Gsp qHEGspFG
CztyG Kt′ ty Gsp yptrsmzEszzo Gz Gsp wpqG zq K$ + lG Jstns Gtxp Kt EpCwlnpF Kt′ -
jsp lIpElrp ty ’[-%( nslyrpF ty l otFnEpGp JlA+ wplotyr Gz l otFnzyGtyHzHF
q—’K(-
jstF otFnzyGtyHtGA tF HrwA lyo HyypnpFFlEA- hlGspE Gsly rtIp lww Gsp
CztyGF ty Gsp yptrsmzEszzo pDHlw JptrsG+ Jp nly lFFtry JptrsGF GslG otp
zΓ FxzzGswA JtGs otFGlynp qEzx Gsp GlErpG CztyG- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF
ly pKlxCwp zq GstF+ HFtyr Gsp Fz!nlwwpo YlolElAl8blGFzy vpEypw!JptrsGpo
[-% Zyp,OtxpyFtzylw VpEypw ixzzGspEF %–“
lIpElrp
(Y
— Vλ ’K$ W Kt (At
q ’K$ ( ˆ (tˆ0
Y
W ’[-=(
tˆ0 Vλ ’K$ W Kt (
JtGs Gsp PClypnsytvzI DHloElGtn vpEypw
9 )
KK } K$ K
Vλ ’K$ W K( ˆ O W ’[-“(
λ
JtGs { ˜
3 ’% } G= ( tq KGK ≤ %:
O’G( ˆ ’[-?(
$ zGspEJtFp,
jsp ¨GGpo qHynGtzy tF yzJ nzyGtyHzHF+ lyo DHtGp FxzzGs ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw
zq QtrHEp [-%- LF Jp xzIp Gsp GlErpG qEzx wpqG Gz EtrsG+ CztyGF pyGpE Gsp
yptrsmzEszzo tytGtlwwA JtGs JptrsG BpEz+ lyo Gspy GsptE nzyGEtmHGtzy FwzJwA
tynEplFpF ’Fpp PKpEntFp [-%(-
Ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw Jp HFpo l xpGEtn JtyozJ FtBp λ ˆ $,= qzE Gsp vpEypw
¨G+ Jstns ozpF yzG nslyrp lF Jp xzIp Gsp GlErpG CztyG K$ + Jstwp Gsp FtBp
zq Gsp “$!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE FxzzGstyr JtyozJ lolCGF Gz Gsp wznlw opyFtGA
zq Gsp Kt - Zyp nly+ szJpIpE+ lwFz HFp FHns lolCGtIp yptrsmzEszzoF JtGs
vpEypwF+ mHG Jp yppo Gz HFp l xzEp rpypElw yzGlGtzy- pG sλ ’K$ ( mp l JtoGs
qHynGtzy ’tyopKpo mA λ( GslG opGpExtypF Gsp JtoGs zq Gsp yptrsmzEszzo lG
K$ - jspy xzEp rpypElwwA Jp slIp
9 )
KK } K$ K
Vλ ’K$ W K( ˆ O , ’[-4(
sλ ’K$ (
Ty ’[-“(+ sλ ’K$ ( ˆ λ tF nzyFGlyG- QzE v!yplEpFG yptrsmzEszzoF+ Gsp yptrs!
mzEszzo FtBp v EpCwlnpF λ+ lyo Jp slIp sv ’K$ ( ˆ KK$ } K5v7 K JspEp K5v7 tF
Gsp vGs nwzFpFG Kt Gz K$ -
jspEp lEp l yHxmpE zq opGltwF GslG zyp slF Gz lGGpyo Gz ty CElnGtnp9
| jsp FxzzGstyr ClElxpGpE λ+ Jstns opGpExtypF Gsp JtoGs zq Gsp wznlw
yptrsmzEszzo+ slF Gz mp opGpExtypo- lErp λ txCwtpF wzJpE IlEtlynp
’lIpElrpF zIpE xzEp zmFpEIlGtzyF( mHG strspE mtlF ’Jp pFFpyGtlwwA lF!
FHxp Gsp GEHp qHynGtzy tF nzyFGlyG JtGsty Gsp JtyozJ(-
| XpGEtn JtyozJ JtoGsF ’nzyFGlyG sλ ’K(( Gpyo Gz vppC Gsp mtlF zq Gsp
pFGtxlGp nzyFGlyG+ mHG Gsp IlEtlynp tF tyIpEFpwA CEzCzEGtzylw Gz Gsp
wznlw opyFtGA- YplEpFG!yptrsmzE JtyozJ JtoGsF pKstmtG Gsp zCCzFtGp
mpslItzE: Gsp IlEtlynp FGlAF nzyFGlyG lyo Gsp lmFzwHGp mtlF IlEtpF
tyIpEFpwA JtGs wznlw opyFtGA-
| TFFHpF lEtFp JtGs yplEpFG!yptrsmzEF Jspy GspEp lEp GtpF ty Gsp Kt - btGs
xzFG FxzzGstyr GpnsytDHpF zyp nly FtxCwA EpoHnp Gsp olGl FpG mA
lIpElrtyr Gsp At lG Gtpo IlwHpF zq c+ lyo FHCCwpxpyGtyr GspFp ypJ
zmFpEIlGtzyF lG Gsp HytDHp IlwHpF zq Kt JtGs ly lootGtzylw JptrsG Jt
’Jstns xHwGtCwpF Gsp vpEypw JptrsG(-
%–? [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
Epanechnikov
0.8
Tri-cube
Gaussian
Vλ WK$ W K(
0.4
0.0
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
QTRIFD 5W1W L nzxClEtFzy zq GsEpp CzCHwlE vpEypwF qzE wznlw FxzzGstyr- Plns
slF mppy nlwtmElGpo Gz tyGprElGp Gz %- jsp GEt,nHmp vpEypw tF nzxClnG lyo slF GJz
nzyGtyHzHF opEtIlGtIpF lG Gsp mzHyolEA zq tGF FHCCzEG+ Jstwp Gsp PClypnsytvzI vpE,
ypw slF yzyp- jsp RlHFFtly vpEypw tF nzyGtyHzHFwA ot;pEpyGtlmwp+ mHG slF ty6ytGp
FHCCzEG-
| jstF wplIpF l xzEp rpypElw CEzmwpx Gz oplw JtGs9 zmFpEIlGtzy JptrsGF

Jt - ZCpElGtzylwwA Jp FtxCwA xHwGtCwA Gspx mA Gsp vpEypw JptrsGF mp!
qzEp nzxCHGtyr Gsp JptrsGpo lIpElrp- btGs yplEpFG yptrsmzEszzoF+ tG
tF yzJ ylGHElw (
Gz tyFtFG zy yptrsmzEszzoF JtGs l GzGlw JptrsG nzyGpyG
v ’EpwlGtIp Gz Jt (- Ty Gsp pIpyG zq zIpE7zJ ’Gsp wlFG zmFpEIlGtzy
yppopo ty l yptrsmzEszzo slF l JptrsG JH Jstns nlHFpF Gsp FHx zq
JptrsGF Gz pKnppo Gsp mHorpG v(+ Gspy qElnGtzylw ClEGF nly mp HFpo-
| MzHyolEA tFFHpF lEtFp- jsp xpGEtn yptrsmzEszzoF Gpyo Gz nzyGlty wpFF
CztyGF zy Gsp mzHyolEtpF+ Jstwp Gsp yplEpFG!yptrsmzEszzoF rpG JtopE-
| jsp PClypnsytvzI vpEypw slF nzxClnG FHCCzEG ’yppopo Jspy HFpo
JtGs yplEpFG!yptrsmzE JtyozJ FtBp(- LyzGspE CzCHwlE nzxClnG vpEypw
tF mlFpo zy Gsp GEt!nHmp qHynGtzy
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O’G( ˆ ’[-[(
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jstF tF 7lGGpE zy Gsp GzC ’wtvp Gsp yplEpFG!yptrsmzE mzK( lyo tF otΓpE!
pyGtlmwp lG Gsp mzHyolEA zq tGF FHCCzEG- jsp RlHFFtly opyFtGA qHyn!
Gtzy O’G( ˆ φ’G( tF l CzCHwlE yzynzxClnG vpEypw+ JtGs Gsp FGlyolEo!
opItlGtzy CwlAtyr Gsp Ezwp zq Gsp JtyozJ FtBp- QtrHEp [-= nzxClEpF
Gsp GsEpp-
”-0-0 znlw typlE hprEpFFtzy

bp slIp CEzrEpFFpo qEzx Gsp ElJ xzItyr lIpElrp Gz l FxzzGswA IlEAtyr
wznlwwA JptrsGpo lIpElrp mA HFtyr vpEypw JptrsGtyr- jsp FxzzGs vpEypw ¨G
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JptrsGpo lIpElrpF nly mp mlowA mtlFpo zy Gsp mzHyolEtpF zq Gsp ozxlty+
[-% Zyp,OtxpyFtzylw VpEypw ixzzGspEF %–4
N-W Kernel at Boundary Local Linear Regression at Boundary
1.5
1.5
O O O O O O
O O
OO O OO O
O O
O O OO O O O OO O
O O O O
O O O O
1.0
1.0
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O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O O O O O O O
O O O O
O O O O
O1’K (
O O O O O O O O O O
OO O + O O O OO O OO
O O O
OO
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0.5
0.5
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O O O O
O • O O
O
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O
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O
O
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O
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O
O
O
O
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O
O O
0.0
0.0
O O O O O O O O
O O O O
O O O O
O O O O
O O O O O O
O
O O O
O O
-0.5
-0.5
O OO O OO
O O
O O O O
O O
O O
O O
-1.0
-1.0
0.0 K+ 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 K+ 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
QTRIFD 5W2W jsp wznlwwA JptrsGpo lIpElrp slF mtlF CEzmwpxF lG zE yplE Gsp
mzHyolEtpF zq Gsp ozxlty- jsp GEHp qHynGtzy tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA wtyplE spEp+ mHG
xzFG zq Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF ty Gsp yptrsmzEszzo slIp l strspE xply Gsly Gsp GlErpG
CztyG+ Fz opFCtGp JptrsGtyr+ GsptE xply Jtww mp mtlFpo HCJlEoF- MA 6GGtyr l wznlwwA
JptrsGpo wtyplE EprEpFFtzy ’EtrsG Clypw(+ GstF mtlF tF EpxzIpo Gz 6EFG zEopE
mpnlHFp zq Gsp lFAxxpGEA zq Gsp vpEypw ty GslG Eprtzy- MA ¨GGtyr FGEltrsG

wtypF ElGspE Gsly nzyFGlyGF wznlwwA+ Jp nly EpxzIp GstF mtlF pKlnGwA Gz ËFG
zEopE: Fpp QtrHEp [-“ ’EtrsG Clypw(- LnGHlwwA+ GstF mtlF nly mp CEpFpyG ty Gsp
tyGpEtzE zq Gsp ozxlty lF Jpww+ tq Gsp c IlwHpF lEp yzG pDHlwwA FClnpo ’qzE
Gsp Flxp EplFzyF+ mHG HFHlwwA wpFF FpIpEp(- Lrlty wznlwwA JptrsGpo wtyplE
EprEpFFtzy Jtww xlvp l ËFG!zEopE nzEEpnGtzy-
znlwwA JptrsGpo EprEpFFtzy FzwIpF l FpClElGp JptrsGpo wplFG FDHlEpF CEzm!
wpx lG plns GlErpG CztyG K$ 9
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αWK$ (WβWK$ (
tˆ0
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— $ ( ) β’K
ly pyGtEp wtyplE xzopw Gz Gsp olGl ty Gsp Eprtzy+ Jp zywA HFp tG Gz pIlwHlGp
Gsp ¨G lG Gsp Ftyrwp CztyG K$ -
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EprEpFFtzy xlGEtK JtGs tGs EzJ m’Kt (j + lyo b’K$ ( Gsp Y × Y otlrzylw
xlGEtK JtGs tGs otlrzylw pwpxpyG Vλ ’K$ W Kt (- jspy
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pFGtxlGp+ lyo ’[-–( strswtrsGF Gsp qlnG GslG Gsp pFGtxlGp tF wtyplE ty Gsp
%–[ [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
Local Linear Equivalent Kernel at Boundary Local Linear Equivalent Kernel in Interior
••• O
O
O
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rEpFFtzy- jspFp lEp Gsp JptrsGF ty q1’K+ ( ˆ
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tyr vpEypw Vλ ’K$ W ±( lyo Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF zCpElGtzyF+ lyo lEp FzxpGtxpF
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nlw wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zy Gsp pDHtIlwpyG vpEypw- StFGzEtnlwwA+ Gsp mtlF ty Gsp
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mA xzotqAtyr Gsp vpEypw- jspFp xzot¨nlGtzyF JpEp mlFpo zy GspzEpGtnlw
lFAxCGzGtn xply!FDHlEp!pEEzE nzyFtopElGtzyF+ lyo mpFtopF mptyr GpotzHF Gz
txCwpxpyG+ lEp zywA lCCEzKtxlGp qzE ÿtGp FlxCwp FtBpF- znlw wtyplE Ep!
rEpFFtzy lHGzxlGtnlwwA xzot¨pF Gsp vpEypw Gz nzEEpnG Gsp mtlF pKlnGwA Gz
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Gsp qzwwzJtyr pKClyFtzy qzE Pq—’K$ (+ HFtyr Gsp wtyplEtGA zq wznlw EprEpFFtzy
lyo l FpEtpF pKClyFtzy zq Gsp GEHp qHynGtzy q lEzHyo K$ +
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Local Linear in Interior Local Quadratic in Interior

OO OO
1.5
1.5
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0.0
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0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
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strspE8zEopE GpExF ty Gsp pKClyFtzy zq q -
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εt tyopCpyopyG lyo topyGtnlwwA otFGEtmHGpo JtGs xply BpEz lyo IlEtlynp
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0.4
Constant
Variance Linear
0.3
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0.2
0.1
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nHEIlGHEp ty Gsp tyGpEtzE zq Gsp ozxlty-
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lFAxCGzGtnlwwA Gsp XiP tF ozxtylGpo mA mzHyolEA pΓpnGF-
bstwp tG xlA mp spwCqHw Gz GtyvpE+ lyo xzIp qEzx wznlw wtyplE ¨GF lG Gsp
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[-= ipwpnGtyr Gsp btoGs zq Gsp VpEypw %––
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vpEypw‘ zElyrp( lyo l FxzzGstyr FCwtyp ’mwHp(+ JtGs xlGnstyr oprEppF zq qEppozx-
jsp IpEGtnlw FCtvpF tyotnlGpF Gsp GlErpG CztyGF-
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lIpElrtyr JtyozJ+ Jstns tF xzFG pKCwtntG qzE wznlw lIpElrpF9
| Tq Gsp JtyozJ tF ylEEzJ+ q—’K$ ( tF ly lIpElrp zq l Fxlww yHxmpE zq At
nwzFp Gz K$ + lyo tGF IlEtlynp Jtww mp EpwlGtIpwA wlErp1nwzFp Gz GslG zq
ly tyotItoHlw At - jsp mtlF Jtww Gpyo Gz mp Fxlww+ lrlty mpnlHFp plns
zq Gsp P’At ( ˆ q ’Kt ( FszHwo mp nwzFp Gz q ’K$ (-
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itxtwlE lErHxpyGF lCCwA Gz wznlw EprEpFFtzy pFGtxlGpF+ FlA wznlw wtyplE9 lF
Gsp JtoGs rzpF Gz BpEz+ Gsp pFGtxlGpF lCCEzlns l CtpnpJtFp!wtyplE qHynGtzy
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FxzzGspEF lEp wtyplE pFGtxlGzEF: Gsp FxzzGspE xlGEtK ty —D ˆ iλ A tF mHtwG HC
qEzx Gsp pDHtIlwpyG vpEypwF ’[-](+ lyo slF tuGs pyGEA ·iλ •tH ˆ wt ’KH (- plIp!
zyp!zHG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy tF ClEGtnHwlEwA FtxCwp ’PKpEntFp [-fi(+ lF tF rpypElw!
tBpo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy+ NC ’PKpEntFp [-%$(+ lyo v!qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- jsp
pΓpnGtIp oprEppF zq qEppozx tF lrlty opÿpo lF GElnp’iλ (+ lyo nly mp HFpo
Gz nlwtmElGp Gsp lxzHyG zq FxzzGstyr- QtrHEp [-fi nzxClEpF Gsp pDHtIlwpyG
vpEypwF qzE l FxzzGstyr FCwtyp lyo wznlw wtyplE EprEpFFtzy- jsp wznlw EprEpF!
Ftzy FxzzGspE slF l FCly zq ?$0+ Jstns EpFHwGF ty oq ˆ GElnp’iλ ( ˆ 4,][-
jsp FxzzGstyr FCwtyp JlF nlwtmElGpo Gz slIp Gsp Flxp oq+ lyo GsptE pDHtI!
lwpyG vpEypwF lEp DHlwtGlGtIpwA DHtGp FtxtwlE-
0 btGs HytqzExwA FClnpo Kt : JtGs tEEprHwlEwA FClnpo Kt ) Gsp mpslItzE nly opGpEtzElGp-
=// [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
”-“ znlw hprEpFFtzy ty ThC

VpEypw FxzzGstyr lyo wznlw EprEpFFtzy rpypElwtBp IpEA ylGHElwwA Gz GJz zE
xzEp otxpyFtzyF- jsp YlolElAl8blGFzy vpEypw FxzzGspE ¨GF l nzyFGlyG
wznlwwA JtGs JptrsGF FHCCwtpo mA l C!otxpyFtzylw vpEypw- znlw wtyplE Ep!
rEpFFtzy Jtww ¨G l sACpECwlyp wznlwwA ty c+ mA JptrsGpo wplFG FDHlEpF+ JtGs
JptrsGF FHCCwtpo mA l C!otxpyFtzylw vpEypw- TG tF FtxCwp Gz txCwpxpyG lyo
tF rpypElwwA CEpqpEEpo Gz Gsp wznlw nzyFGlyG ¨G qzE tGF FHCpEtzE CpEqzExlynp
zy Gsp mzHyolEtpF-
pG m’c( mp l IpnGzE zq CzwAyzxtlw GpExF ty c zq xlKtxHx oprEpp o-
QzE pKlxCwp+ JtGs o ˆ % lyo C ˆ = Jp rpG m’c( ˆ ’%W c0 W c= (: JtGs o ˆ =
Jp rpG m’c( ˆ ’%W c0 W c= W c0= W c== W c0 c= (: lyo GEtItlwwA JtGs o ˆ $ Jp rpG
m’c( ˆ %- LG plns K$ ∈ ThC FzwIp
Y
∑
xty Vλ ’K$ W Kt (’At } m’Kt (j β’K$ ((= ’[-%=(
βWK$ (
tˆ0
Gz CEzoHnp Gsp ¨G q—’K$ ( ˆ m’K$ (j β’K

— $ (- jACtnlwwA Gsp vpEypw Jtww mp l Elotlw
qHynGtzy+ FHns lF Gsp Elotlw PClypnsytvzI zE GEt!nHmp vpEypw
9 )
KKK } K$ KK
Vλ ’K$ W K( ˆ O W ’[-%“(
λ
JspEp KK±KK tF Gsp PHnwtoply yzEx- itynp Gsp PHnwtoply yzEx opCpyoF zy Gsp
HytGF ty plns nzzEotylGp+ tG xlvpF xzFG FpyFp Gz FGlyolEotBp plns CEpotnGzE+
qzE pKlxCwp+ Gz HytG FGlyolEo opItlGtzy+ CEtzE Gz FxzzGstyr-
bstwp mzHyolEA pΓpnGF lEp l CEzmwpx ty zyp!otxpyFtzylw FxzzGstyr+
GspA lEp l xHns mtrrpE CEzmwpx ty GJz zE strspE otxpyFtzyF+ Ftynp Gsp
qElnGtzy zq CztyGF zy Gsp mzHyolEA tF wlErpE- Ty qlnG+ zyp zq Gsp xlytqpFGl!
GtzyF zq Gsp nHEFp zq otxpyFtzylwtGA tF GslG Gsp qElnGtzy zq CztyGF nwzFp Gz Gsp
mzHyolEA tynEplFpF Gz zyp lF Gsp otxpyFtzy rEzJF- OtEpnGwA xzotqAtyr Gsp
vpEypw Gz lnnzxxzolGp GJz!otxpyFtzylw mzHyolEtpF mpnzxpF IpEA xpFFA+
pFCpntlwwA qzE tEEprHwlE mzHyolEtpF- znlw CzwAyzxtlw EprEpFFtzy FplxwpFFwA
CpEqzExF mzHyolEA nzEEpnGtzy Gz Gsp opFtEpo zEopE ty lyA otxpyFtzyF- Qtr!
HEp [-] twwHFGElGpF wznlw wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zy Fzxp xplFHEpxpyGF qEzx ly
lFGEzyzxtnlw FGHoA JtGs ly HyHFHlw CEpotnGzE opFtry ’FGlE!FslCpo(- SpEp
Gsp mzHyolEA tF pKGEpxpwA tEEprHwlE+ lyo Gsp ¨GGpo FHEqlnp xHFG lwFz tyGpE!
CzwlGp zIpE EprtzyF zq tynEplFtyr olGl FClEFtGA lF Jp lCCEzlns Gsp mzHyolEA-
znlw EprEpFFtzy mpnzxpF wpFF HFpqHw ty otxpyFtzyF xHns strspE Gsly GJz
zE GsEpp- bp slIp otFnHFFpo ty Fzxp opGltw Gsp CEzmwpxF zq otxpyFtzylw!
tGA+ qzE pKlxCwp+ ty NslCGpE =- TG tF txCzFFtmwp Gz FtxHwGlypzHFwA xlty!
Glty wznlwypFF ’⇒ wzJ mtlF( lyo l FtBlmwp FlxCwp ty Gsp yptrsmzEszzo ’⇒
wzJ IlEtlynp( lF Gsp otxpyFtzy tynEplFpF+ JtGszHG Gsp GzGlw FlxCwp FtBp ty!
nEplFtyr pKCzypyGtlwwA ty C- atFHlwtBlGtzy zq q—’c( lwFz mpnzxpF otffnHwG ty
strspE otxpyFtzyF+ lyo GstF tF zqGpy zyp zq Gsp CEtxlEA rzlwF zq FxzzGstyr-
[-? iGEHnGHEpo znlw hprEpFFtzy czopwF ty ThN =/%
Velocity Velocity
South-North South-North
East-West East-West
QTRIFD 5W7W jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF GsEpp,otxpyFtzylw olGl+ JspEp Gsp EpFCzyFp
tF Gsp IpwzntGA xplFHEpxpyGF zy l rlwlKA+ lyo Gsp GJz CEpotnGzEF EpnzEo CzFtGtzyF
zy Gsp npwpFGtlw FCspEp- jsp HyHFHlw 2FGlE5,FslCpo opFtry tyotnlGpF Gsp JlA Gsp
xplFHEpxpyGF JpEp xlop+ lyo EpFHwGF ty ly pKGEpxpwA tEEprHwlE mzHyolEA- jsp
EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF zq wznlw wtyplE EprEpFFtzy FxzzGstyr ty Th= + HFtyr l
yplEpFG,yptrsmzE JtyozJ JtGs %40 zq Gsp olGl-
LwGszHrs Gsp FnlGGpE!nwzHo lyo JtEp!qElxp CtnGHEpF ty QtrHEp [-] wzzv lG!
GElnGtIp+ tG tF DHtGp otffnHwG Gz tyGpECEpG Gsp EpFHwGF pKnpCG lG l rEzFF wpIpw-
QEzx l olGl lylwAFtF CpEFCpnGtIp+ nzyotGtzylw CwzGF lEp qlE xzEp HFpqHw-
QtrHEp [-– FszJF ly lylwAFtF zq Fzxp pyItEzyxpyGlw olGl JtGs GsEpp CEp!
otnGzEF- jsp GEpwwtF otFCwlA spEp FszJF zBzyp lF l qHynGtzy zq ElotlGtzy+
nzyotGtzypo zy Gsp zGspE GJz IlEtlmwpF+ GpxCpElGHEp lyo Jtyo FCppo- SzJ!
pIpE+ nzyotGtzytyr zy Gsp IlwHp zq l IlEtlmwp EplwwA txCwtpF wznlw Gz GslG
IlwHp ’lF ty wznlw EprEpFFtzy(- LmzIp plns zq Gsp ClypwF ty QtrHEp [-– tF ly
tyotnlGtzy zq Gsp Elyrp zq IlwHpF CEpFpyG ty GslG Clypw qzE plns zq Gsp nzyot!
Gtzytyr IlwHpF- Ty Gsp Clypw tGFpwq Gsp olGl FHmFpGF lEp otFCwlApo ’EpFCzyFp
IpEFHF Epxltytyr IlEtlmwp(+ lyo l zyp!otxpyFtzylw wznlw wtyplE EprEpFFtzy tF
¨G Gz Gsp olGl- LwGszHrs GstF tF yzG DHtGp Gsp Flxp lF wzzvtyr lG FwtnpF zq
l ¨GGpo GsEpp!otxpyFtzylw FHEqlnp+ tG tF CEzmlmwA xzEp HFpqHw ty GpExF zq
HyopEFGlyotyr Gsp uztyG mpslItzE zq Gsp olGl-
”-? iGEHnGHEpo znlw hprEpFFtzy czopwF ty ThC

bspy Gsp otxpyFtzy Gz FlxCwp!FtBp ElGtz tF HyqlIzElmwp+ wznlw EprEpFFtzy
ozpF yzG spwC HF xHns+ HywpFF Jp lEp Jtwwtyr Gz xlvp Fzxp FGEHnGHElw lF!
FHxCGtzyF lmzHG Gsp xzopw- XHns zq GstF mzzv tF lmzHG FGEHnGHEpo EprEpF!
Ftzy lyo nwlFFt¨nlGtzy xzopwF- SpEp Jp qznHF zy Fzxp lCCEzlnspF otEpnGwA
EpwlGpo Gz vpEypw xpGszoF-
=/= [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
0 50 150 250 0 50 150 250
Wind Wind Wind Wind

Temp Temp Temp Temp
5
1
Wind Wind Wind Wind
Cube Root Ozone (cube root ppb)
Temp Temp Temp Temp

5
1
Wind Wind Wind Wind
Temp Temp Temp Temp
5
1
Wind Wind Wind Wind
Temp Temp Temp Temp
5
0 50 150 250 0 50 150 250
Solar Radiation (langleys)
QTRIFD 5W8W jsEpp,otxpyFtzylw FxzzGstyr pKlxCwp- jsp EpFCzyFp tF ’nHmp,EzzG

zq ( zBzyp nzynpyGElGtzy+ lyo Gsp GsEpp CEpotnGzEF lEp GpxCpElGHEp+ Jtyo FCppo lyo
ElotlGtzy- jsp GEpwwtF otFCwlA FszJF zBzyp lF l qHynGtzy zq ElotlGtzy+ nzyotGtzypo
zy tyGpEIlwF zq GpxCpElGHEp lyo Jtyo FCppo ’tyotnlGpo mA olEvpE rEppy zE zElyrp
Fslopo mlEF(- Plns Clypw nzyGltyF lmzHG ?/0 zq Gsp Elyrp zq plns zq Gsp nzyot,
Gtzypo IlEtlmwpF- jsp nHEIp ty plns Clypw tF l HytIlEtlGp wznlw wtyplE EprEpFFtzy+
6G Gz Gsp olGl ty Gsp Clypw-
[-? iGEHnGHEpo znlw hprEpFFtzy czopwF ty ThN =/“
”-?-0 iGEHnGHEpo VpEypwF

Zyp wtyp zq lCCEzlns tF Gz xzotqA Gsp vpEypw- jsp opqlHwG FCspEtnlw vpE!
ypw ’[-%“( rtIpF pDHlw JptrsG Gz plns nzzEotylGp+ lyo Fz l ylGHElw opqlHwG
FGElGprA tF Gz FGlyolEotBp plns IlEtlmwp Gz HytG FGlyolEo opItlGtzy- L xzEp
rpypElw lCCEzlns tF Gz HFp l CzFtGtIp FpxtopÿtGp xlGEtK L Gz Jptrs Gsp
otΓpEpyG nzzEotylGpF9
9 )
’K } K$ (j L’K } K$ (
VλWL ’K$ W K( ˆ O , ’[-%?(
λ
PyGtEp nzzEotylGpF zE otEpnGtzyF nly mp ozJyrElopo zE zxtGGpo mA txCzFtyr

lCCEzCEtlGp EpFGEtnGtzyF zy L- QzE pKlxCwp+ tq L tF otlrzylw+ Gspy Jp nly
tynEplFp zE opnEplFp Gsp ty7Hpynp zq tyotItoHlw CEpotnGzEF cH mA tynEplFtyr
zE opnEplFtyr LHH - ZqGpy Gsp CEpotnGzEF lEp xlyA lyo strswA nzEEpwlGpo+
FHns lF GszFp lEtFtyr qEzx otrtGtBpo lylwzr FtrylwF zE txlrpF- jsp nzIlEtlynp
qHynGtzy zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF nly mp HFpo Gz GltwzE l xpGEtn L GslG qznHFpF wpFF+
FlA+ zy strs!qEpDHpynA nzyGElFGF ’PKpEntFp [-?(- fEzCzFlwF slIp mppy xlop
qzE wplEytyr Gsp ClElxpGpEF qzE xHwGtotxpyFtzylw vpEypwF- QzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp
CEzupnGtzy!CHEFHtG EprEpFFtzy xzopw otFnHFFpo ty NslCGpE %% tF zq GstF 7lIzE+
JspEp wzJ!Elyv IpEFtzyF zq L txCwA Etorp qHynGtzyF qzE q—’c(- XzEp rpypElw
xzopwF qzE L lEp nHxmpEFzxp+ lyo Jp qlIzE tyFGplo Gsp FGEHnGHEpo qzExF
qzE Gsp EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzy otFnHFFpo ypKG-
”-?-1 iGEHnGHEpo hprEpFFtzy QHynGtzyF

bp lEp GEAtyr Gz ¨G l EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzy P’d Kc( ˆ q ’c0 W c= W , , , W cC ( ty
ThC + ty Jstns pIpEA wpIpw zq tyGpElnGtzy tF CzGpyGtlwwA CEpFpyG- TG tF ylGHElw
Gz nzyFtopE lylwAFtF!zq!IlEtlynp ’LYZaL( opnzxCzFtGtzyF zq Gsp qzEx
∑ ∑
q ’c0 W c= W , , , W cC ( ˆ α ) rH ’cH ( ) rvℓ ’cv W cℓ ( ) ± ± ± ’[-%4(
H v/ℓ
lyo Gspy tyGEzoHnp FGEHnGHEp mA pwtxtylGtyr Fzxp zq Gsp strspE!zEopE

(C GpExF-
LootGtIp xzopwF lFFHxp zywA xlty pΓpnG GpExF9 q ’c( ˆ α ) Hˆ0 rH ’cH (:
Fpnzyo!zEopE xzopwF Jtww slIp GpExF JtGs tyGpElnGtzyF zq zEopE lG xzFG
GJz+ lyo Fz zy- Ty NslCGpE –+ Jp opFnEtmp tGpElGtIp mlnv¨GGtyr lwrzEtGsxF
qzE ¨GGtyr FHns wzJ!zEopE tyGpElnGtzy xzopwF- Ty Gsp lootGtIp xzopw+ qzE
pKlxCwp+ tq lww mHG Gsp vGs(GpEx tF lFFHxpo vyzJy+ Gspy Jp nly pFGtxlGp rv
mA wznlw EprEpFFtzy zq d } H′ˆv rH ’cH ( zy cv - jstF tF ozyp qzE plns qHynGtzy
ty GHEy+ EpCplGpowA+ HyGtw nzyIpErpynp- jsp txCzEGlyG opGltw tF GslG lG lyA
FGlrp+ zyp!otxpyFtzylw wznlw EprEpFFtzy tF lww GslG tF yppopo- jsp Flxp toplF
nly mp HFpo Gz ¨G wzJ!otxpyFtzylw LYZaL opnzxCzFtGtzyF-
Ly txCzEGlyG FCpntlw nlFp zq GspFp FGEHnGHEpo xzopwF lEp Gsp nwlFF zq
IlEAtyr nzpffntpyG xzopwF- iHCCzFp+ qzE pKlxCwp+ GslG Jp otItop Gsp C CEp!
otnGzEF ty c tyGz l FpG ’c0 W c= W , , , W cD ( JtGs D ı C+ lyo Gsp EpxltyopE zq
=/? [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
Aortic Diameter vs Age

20 30 40 50 60 20 30 40 50 60 20 30 40 50 60
Male Male Male Male Male Male

Depth Depth Depth Depth Depth Depth
24
22
20
18
16
14
Diameter
12
10
Female Female Female Female Female Female

Depth Depth Depth Depth Depth Depth
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
20 30 40 50 60 20 30 40 50 60 20 30 40 50 60
Age
QTRIFD 5W0.W Ty plns Clypw Gsp lzEGl otlxpGpE tF xzopwpo lF l wtyplE qHyn,
Gtzy zq lrp- jsp nzpffntpyGF zq GstF xzopw IlEA JtGs rpyopE lyo opCGs ozJy
Gsp lzEGl ’wpqG tF yplE Gsp GzC+ EtrsG tF wzJ ozJy(- jspEp tF l nwplE GEpyo ty Gsp
nzpffntpyGF zq Gsp wtyplE xzopw-
Gsp IlEtlmwpF Jp nzwwpnG ty Gsp IpnGzE e- bp Gspy lFFHxp Gsp nzyotGtzylwwA

wtyplE xzopw
q ’c( ˆ α’e( ) β0 ’e(c0 ) ± ± ± ) βD ’e(cD , ’[-%[(
QzE rtIpy e+ GstF tF l wtyplE xzopw+ mHG plns zq Gsp nzpffntpyGF nly IlEA
JtGs e- TG tF ylGHElw Gz ¨G FHns l xzopw mA wznlwwA JptrsGpo wplFG FDHlEpF9
Y
∑ =
xty Vλ ’B$ W Bt ( ’At } α’B$ ( } K0t β0 ’B$ ( } ± ± ± } KDt βD ’B$ (( ,
αWB$ (WβWB$ (
tˆ0
’[-%fi(
QtrHEp [-%$ twwHFGElGpF Gsp topl zy xplFHEpxpyGF zq Gsp sHxly lzEGl-
L wzyrFGlyotyr nwltx slF mppy GslG Gsp lzEGl GstnvpyF JtGs lrp- SpEp Jp
xzopw Gsp otlxpGpE zq Gsp lzEGl lF l wtyplE qHynGtzy zq lrp+ mHG lwwzJ Gsp
nzpffntpyGF Gz IlEA JtGs rpyopE lyo opCGs ozJy Gsp lzEGl- bp HFpo l wznlw
EprEpFFtzy xzopw FpClElGpwA qzE xlwpF lyo qpxlwpF- bstwp Gsp lzEGl nwplEwA
ozpF Gstnvpy JtGs lrp lG Gsp strspE EprtzyF zq Gsp lzEGl+ Gsp EpwlGtzyFstC
qlopF JtGs otFGlynp ozJy Gsp lzEGl- QtrHEp [-%% FszJF Gsp tyGpEnpCG lyo
FwzCp lF l qHynGtzy zq opCGs-
[-4 znlw tvpwtszzo lyo ZGspE czopwF =/4
Male Female
20
18
Age Intercept
16
14
1.2
Age Slope
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Distance Down Aorta Distance Down Aorta
QTRIFD 5W00W jsp tyGpEnpCG lyo FwzCp zq lrp lF l qHynGtzy zq otFGlynp ozJy
Gsp lzEGl+ FpClElGpwA qzE xlwpF lyo qpxlwpF- jsp ApwwzJ mlyoF tyotnlGp zyp FGly,
olEo pEEzE-
”-4 znlw tvpwtszzo lyo ZGspE czopwF

jsp nzynpCG zq wznlw EprEpFFtzy lyo IlEAtyr nzpffntpyG xzopwF tF pKGEpxpwA
mEzlo9 lyA ClElxpGEtn xzopw nly mp xlop wznlw tq Gsp ¨GGtyr xpGszo ln!
nzxxzolGpF zmFpEIlGtzy JptrsGF- SpEp lEp Fzxp pKlxCwpF9
| LFFzntlGpo JtGs plns zmFpEIlGtzy At tF l ClElxpGpE θt ˆ θ’Kt ( ˆ Kjt β

wtyplE ty Gsp nzIlEtlGp’F( Kt + lyo tyqpEpynp qzE β tF mlFpo zy Gsp wzr!
(Y
wtvpwtszzo w’β( ˆ tˆ0 w’At W Kjt β(- bp nly xzopw θ’c( xzEp 7pKtmwA
mA HFtyr Gsp wtvpwtszzo wznlw Gz K$ qzE tyqpEpynp zq θ’K$ ( ˆ Kj$ β’K$ (9
Y
∑
w’β’K$ (( ˆ Vλ ’K$ W Kt (w’At W Kjt β’K$ ((,
tˆ0
XlyA wtvpwtszzo xzopwF+ ty ClEGtnHwlE Gsp qlxtwA zq rpypElwtBpo wtyplE

xzopwF tynwHotyr wzrtFGtn lyo wzr!wtyplE xzopwF+ tyIzwIp Gsp nzIlEtlGpF
ty l wtyplE qlFstzy- znlw wtvpwtszzo lwwzJF l EpwlKlGtzy qEzx l rwzmlwwA
wtyplE xzopw Gz zyp GslG tF wznlwwA wtyplE-
=/[ [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
| LF lmzIp+ pKnpCG otΓpEpyG IlEtlmwpF lEp lFFzntlGpo JtGs θ qEzx GszFp

HFpo qzE opÿtyr Gsp wznlw wtvpwtszzo9
Y
∑
w’θ’B$ (( ˆ Vλ ’B$ W Bt (w’At W η’Kt W θ’B$ (((,
tˆ0
QzE pKlxCwp+ η’KW θ( ˆ Kj θ nzHwo mp l wtyplE xzopw ty K- jstF Jtww ¨G

l IlEAtyr nzpffntpyG xzopw θ’B( mA xlKtxtBtyr Gsp wznlw wtvpwtszzo-
| LHGzEprEpFFtIp Gtxp FpEtpF xzopwF zq zEopE v slIp Gsp qzEx AG ˆ
β$ ) β0 AG}0 ) β= AG}= ) ± ± ± ) βv AG}v ) εG - OpyzGtyr Gsp wlr FpG mA
BG ˆ ’AG}0 W AG}= W , , , W AG}v (+ Gsp xzopw wzzvF wtvp l FGlyolEo wtyplE
xzopw AG ˆ BGj β ) εG + lyo tF GACtnlwwA ¨G mA wplFG FDHlEpF- QtGGtyr
mA wznlw wplFG FDHlEpF JtGs l vpEypw V’B$ W BG ( lwwzJF Gsp xzopw Gz
IlEA lnnzEotyr Gz Gsp FszEG!GpEx stFGzEA zq Gsp FpEtpF- jstF tF Gz mp
otFGtyrHtFspo qEzx Gsp xzEp GElotGtzylw oAylxtn wtyplE xzopwF GslG
IlEA mA JtyozJtyr Gtxp-
LF ly twwHFGElGtzy zq wznlw wtvpwtszzo+ Jp nzyFtopE Gsp wznlw IpEFtzy zq Gsp
xHwGtnwlFF wtyplE wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw ’?-“[( zq NslCGpE ?- jsp olGl
nzyFtFG zq qplGHEpF Kt lyo ly lFFzntlGpo nlGprzEtnlw EpFCzyFp rt ∈ ·%W =W , , , W U•+
lyo Gsp wtyplE xzopw slF Gsp qzEx
j
pβu$ )βu K
fE’R ˆ uKc ˆ K( ˆ (U}0 β )β j K , ’[-%](
% ) vˆ0 p v$ v
jsp wznlw wzr!wtvpwtszzo qzE GstF U nwlFF xzopw nly mp JEtGGpy
Y
"
∑
Vλ ’K$ W Kt ( βrt $ ’K$ ( ) βrt ’K$ (j ’Kt } K$ (
tˆ0
C U}0
D/
∑ $ %
j
} wzr % ) pKC βv$ ’K$ ( ) βv ’K$ ( ’Kt } K$ ( ,
vˆ0
’[-%–(
YzGtnp GslG
| Jp slIp HFpo rt lF l FHmFnEtCG ty Gsp ËFG wtyp Gz Ctnv zHG Gsp lCCEz!
CEtlGp yHxpElGzE:
| βU$ ˆ $ lyo βU ˆ $ mA Gsp opÿtGtzy zq Gsp xzopw:
| Jp slIp npyGpEpo Gsp wznlw EprEpFFtzyF lG K$ + Fz GslG Gsp ¨GGpo CzFGp!
EtzE CEzmlmtwtGtpF lG K$ lEp FtxCwA
1
— pβu$ WK$ (
fE’R ˆ uKc ˆ K$ ( ˆ (U}0 β1 WK ( , ’[-=$(
% ) vˆ0 p v$ $
[-4 znlw tvpwtszzo lyo ZGspE czopwF =/fi
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
Prevalence CHD
Prevalence CHD
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
100 140 180 220 15 25 35 45
Systolic Blood Pressure Obesity
QTRIFD 5W01W Plns CwzG FszJF Gsp mtylEA EpFCzyFp NSO ’nzEzylEA splEG otF,
plFp( lF l qHynGtzy zq l EtFv qlnGzE qzE Gsp izHGs LqEtnly splEG otFplFp olGl-
QzE plns CwzG Jp slIp nzxCHGpo Gsp 6GGpo CEpIlwpynp zq NSO HFtyr l wznlw wtyplE
wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw- jsp HypKCpnGpo tynEplFp ty Gsp CEpIlwpynp zq NSO lG
Gsp wzJpE pyoF zq Gsp ElyrpF tF mpnlHFp GspFp lEp EpGEzFCpnGtIp olGl+ lyo Fzxp zq
Gsp FHmupnGF slo lwEploA HyopErzyp GEplGxpyG Gz EpoHnp GsptE mwzzo CEpFFHEp lyo
JptrsG- jsp Fslopo Eprtzy ty Gsp CwzG tyotnlGpF ly pFGtxlGpo CztyGJtFp FGlyolEo
pEEzE mlyo-
jstF xzopw nly mp HFpo qzE 7pKtmwp xHwGtnwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ty xzopElGpwA

wzJ otxpyFtzyF+ lwGszHrs FHnnpFFpF slIp mppy EpCzEGpo JtGs Gsp strs!
otxpyFtzylw eTf!nzop nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpx- RpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopwF
’NslCGpE –( HFtyr vpEypw FxzzGstyr xpGszoF lEp nwzFpwA EpwlGpo+ lyo lIzto
otxpyFtzylwtGA CEzmwpxF mA lFFHxtyr ly lootGtIp FGEHnGHEp qzE Gsp EprEpF!
Ftzy qHynGtzy-
LF l FtxCwp twwHFGElGtzy Jp ¨G l GJz!nwlFF wznlw wtyplE wzrtFGtn xzopw Gz
Gsp splEG otFplFp olGl zq NslCGpE ?- QtrHEp [-%= FszJF Gsp HytIlEtlGp wznlw
wzrtFGtn xzopwF ¨G Gz GJz zq Gsp EtFv qlnGzEF ’FpClElGpwA(- jstF tF l HFpqHw
FnEppytyr opItnp qzE opGpnGtyr yzywtyplEtGtpF+ Jspy Gsp olGl GspxFpwIpF slIp
wtGGwp ItFHlw tyqzExlGtzy Gz zΓpE- Ty GstF nlFp ly HypKCpnGpo lyzxlwA tF
HynzIpEpo ty Gsp olGl+ Jstns xlA slIp rzyp HyyzGtnpo JtGs GElotGtzylw
xpGszoF-
itynp NSO tF l mtylEA tyotnlGzE+ Jp nzHwo pFGtxlGp Gsp nzyotGtzylw CEpIl!
wpynp fE’R ˆ uKK$ ( mA FtxCwA FxzzGstyr GstF mtylEA EpFCzyFp otEpnGwA JtGs!
zHG EpFzEGtyr Gz l wtvpwtszzo qzExHwlGtzy- jstF lxzHyGF Gz ¨GGtyr l wznlwwA
nzyFGlyG wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw ’PKpEntFp [-4(- Ty zEopE Gz pyuzA Gsp mtlF!
nzEEpnGtzy zq wznlw!wtyplE FxzzGstyr+ tG tF xzEp ylGHElw Gz zCpElGp zy Gsp
HyEpFGEtnGpo wzrtG Fnlwp-
jACtnlwwA JtGs wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy+ Jp nzxCHGp ClElxpGpE pFGtxlGpF lF
Jpww lF GsptE FGlyolEo pEEzEF- jstF nly mp ozyp wznlwwA lF Jpww+ lyo Fz
=/] [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
0.020
0.015
Density Estimate
0.010
0.005
0.0
100 120 140 160 180 200 220

Systolic Blood Pressure (for CHD group)
QTRIFD 5W02W L vpEypw opyFtGA pFGtxlGp qzE FAFGzwtn mwzzo CEpFFHEp ’qzE Gsp
NSO rEzHC(- jsp opyFtGA pFGtxlGp lG plns CztyG tF Gsp lIpElrp nzyGEtmHGtzy qEzx
plns zq Gsp vpEypwF lG GslG CztyG- bp slIp Fnlwpo Gsp vpEypwF ozJy mA l qlnGzE zq
%/ Gz xlvp Gsp rElCs Eplolmwp-
Jp nly CEzoHnp+ lF FszJy ty Gsp CwzG+ pFGtxlGpo CztyGJtFp FGlyolEo!pEEzE

mlyoF lmzHG zHE ¨GGpo CEpIlwpynp-
”-” VpEypw OpyFtGA PFGtxlGtzy lyo NwlFFt6nlGtzy

VpEypw opyFtGA pFGtxlGtzy tF ly HyFHCpEItFpo wplEytyr CEznpoHEp+ Jstns
stFGzEtnlwwA CEpnpopF vpEypw EprEpFFtzy- TG lwFz wploF ylGHElwwA Gz l FtxCwp
qlxtwA zq CEznpoHEpF qzE yzyClElxpGEtn nwlFFt¨nlGtzy-
”-”-0 VpEypw OpyFtGA PFGtxlGtzy

iHCCzFp Jp slIp l Elyozx FlxCwp K0 W , , , W KY oElJy qEzx l CEzmlmtwtGA
opyFtGA qc ’K(+ lyo Jp JtFs Gz pFGtxlGp qc lG l CztyG K$ - QzE FtxCwtntGA Jp
lFFHxp qzE yzJ GslG c ∈ Th- LErHtyr lF mpqzEp+ l ylGHElw wznlw pFGtxlGp
slF Gsp qzEx
.Kt ∈ Y ’K$ (
q—c ’K$ ( ˆ W ’[-=%(
Yλ
JspEp Y ’K$ ( tF l Fxlww xpGEtn yptrsmzEszzo lEzHyo K$ zq JtoGs λ- jstF
pFGtxlGp tF mHxCA+ lyo Gsp FxzzGs flEBpy pFGtxlGp tF CEpqpEEpo
Y
% ∑
q—c ’K$ ( ˆ Vλ ’K$ W Kt (W ’[-==(
Y λ tˆ0
[-[ VpEypw OpyFtGA PFGtxlGtzy lyo NwlFFt6nlGtzy =/–
1.0
CHD
0.8
no CHD
0.020
Posterior Estimate
Density Estimates
0.6
0.010
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
100 140 180 220 100 140 180 220
Systolic Blood Pressure Systolic Blood Pressure
QTRIFD 5W03W jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp GJz FpClElGp opyFtGA pFGtxlGpF qzE
FAFGzwtn mwzzo CEpFFHEp ty Gsp NSO IpEFHF yz,NSO rEzHCF+ HFtyr l RlHFFtly
vpEypw opyFtGA pFGtxlGp ty plns- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp pFGtxlGpo CzFGpEtzE
CEzmlmtwtGtpF qzE NSO+ HFtyr ’”-=4(-
mpnlHFp tG nzHyGF zmFpEIlGtzyF nwzFp Gz K$ JtGs JptrsGF GslG opnEplFp JtGs

otFGlynp qEzx K$ - Ty GstF nlFp l CzCHwlE nsztnp qzE Vλ tF Gsp RlHFFtly vpEypw
Vλ ’K$ W K( ˆ φ’KK } K$ K.λ(- QtrHEp [-%“ FszJF l RlHFFtly vpEypw opyFtGA ¨G
Gz Gsp FlxCwp IlwHpF qzE FAFGzwtn mwzzo CEpFFHEp qzE Gsp NSO rEzHC- pGGtyr
φλ opyzGp Gsp RlHFFtly opyFtGA JtGs xply BpEz lyo FGlyolEo!opItlGtzy λ+
Gspy ’[-==( slF Gsp qzEx
Y
% ∑
q—c ’K( ˆ φλ ’K } Kt (
Y tˆ0
ˆ ’Q— ⋆ φλ (’K(W ’[-=“(
Gsp nzyIzwHGtzy zq Gsp FlxCwp pxCtEtnlw otFGEtmHGtzy Q— JtGs φλ - jsp otF!

GEtmHGtzy Q— ’K( CHGF xlFF %.Y lG plns zq Gsp zmFpEIpo Kt + lyo tF uHxCA: ty
q—c ’K( Jp slIp FxzzGspo Q— mA lootyr tyopCpyopyG RlHFFtly yztFp Gz plns
zmFpEIlGtzy Kt -
jsp flEBpy opyFtGA pFGtxlGp tF Gsp pDHtIlwpyG zq Gsp wznlw lIpElrp+ lyo
txCEzIpxpyGF slIp mppy CEzCzFpo lwzyr Gsp wtypF zq wznlw EprEpFFtzy ”zy Gsp
wzr Fnlwp qzE opyFtGtpF: Fpp zlopE ’%–––(fl- bp Jtww yzG CHEFHp GspFp spEp-
Ty ThC Gsp ylGHElw rpypElwtBlGtzy zq Gsp RlHFFtly opyFtGA pFGtxlGp lxzHyGF
Gz HFtyr Gsp RlHFFtly CEzoHnG vpEypw ty ’[-=“(+
∑Y
% 0 =
q—c ’K$ ( ˆ N p} = WKKKt }K$ KK.λ( , ’[-=?(
Y ’=λ= π( = tˆ0
=%/ [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
1.0
0.5
0.0
QTRIFD 5W04W jsp CzCHwlGtzy nwlFF opyFtGtpF xlA slIp tyGpEpFGtyr FGEHnGHEp
’wpqG( GslG otFlCCplEF Jspy Gsp CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGtpF lEp qzExpo ’EtrsG(-
”-”-1 VpEypw OpyFtGA NwlFFt6nlGtzy

Zyp nly HFp yzyClElxpGEtn opyFtGA pFGtxlGpF qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ty l FGEltrsG!
qzEJlEo qlFstzy HFtyr MlApF& GspzEpx- iHCCzFp qzE l U nwlFF CEzmwpx Jp ¨G
yzyClElxpGEtn opyFtGA pFGtxlGpF q—H ’c(W u ˆ %W , , , W U FpClElGpwA ty plns zq
Gsp nwlFFpF+ lyo Jp lwFz slIp pFGtxlGpF zq Gsp nwlFF CEtzEF π —H ’HFHlwwA Gsp
FlxCwp CEzCzEGtzyF(- jspy
— —H q—H ’K$ (
π
fE’R ˆ uKc ˆ K$ ( ˆ (U , ’[-=4(
vˆ0 π —v q—v ’K$ (
QtrHEp [-%? HFpF GstF xpGszo Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp CEpIlwpynp zq NSO qzE Gsp
splEG EtFv qlnGzE FGHoA+ lyo FszHwo mp nzxClEpo JtGs Gsp wpqG Clypw zq Qtr!
HEp [-%=- jsp xlty otΓpEpynp znnHEF ty Gsp Eprtzy zq strs iMf ty Gsp EtrsG
Clypw zq QtrHEp [-%?- Ty GstF Eprtzy Gsp olGl lEp FClEFp qzE mzGs nwlFFpF+ lyo
Ftynp Gsp RlHFFtly vpEypw opyFtGA pFGtxlGpF HFp xpGEtn vpEypwF+ Gsp opyFtGA
pFGtxlGpF lEp wzJ lyo zq CzzE DHlwtGA ’strs IlEtlynp( ty GspFp EprtzyF- jsp
wznlw wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xpGszo ’[-=$( HFpF Gsp GEt!nHmp vpEypw JtGs v!YY
mlyoJtoGs: GstF pΓpnGtIpwA JtopyF Gsp vpEypw ty GstF Eprtzy+ lyo xlvpF HFp
zq Gsp wznlw wtyplE lFFHxCGtzy Gz FxzzGs zHG Gsp pFGtxlGp ’zy Gsp wzrtG
Fnlwp(-
Tq nwlFFt¨nlGtzy tF Gsp HwGtxlGp rzlw+ Gspy wplEytyr Gsp FpClElGp nwlFF opy!
FtGtpF Jpww xlA mp HyypnpFFlEA+ lyo nly ty qlnG mp xtFwplotyr- QtrHEp [-%4
FszJF ly pKlxCwp JspEp Gsp opyFtGtpF lEp mzGs xHwGtxzolw+ mHG Gsp CzF!
GpEtzE ElGtz tF DHtGp FxzzGs- Ty wplEytyr Gsp FpClElGp opyFtGtpF qEzx olGl+
zyp xtrsG opntop Gz FpGGwp qzE l EzHrspE+ strs!IlEtlynp ¨G Gz nlCGHEp GspFp
qplGHEpF+ Jstns lEp tEEpwpIlyG qzE Gsp CHECzFpF zq pFGtxlGtyr Gsp CzFGpEtzE
CEzmlmtwtGtpF- Ty qlnG+ tq nwlFFt¨nlGtzy tF Gsp HwGtxlGp rzlw+ Gspy Jp yppo zywA
Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp CzFGpEtzE Jpww yplE Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEA ’qzE GJz nwlFFpF+
GstF tF Gsp FpG ·KKfE’R ˆ %Kc ˆ K( ˆ 0= •(-
”-”-“ jsp dltIp MlApF NwlFFt6pE

jstF tF l GpnsytDHp GslG slF Epxltypo CzCHwlE zIpE Gsp AplEF+ opFCtGp tGF
ylxp ’lwFz vyzJy lF ˜TotzG&F MlApF˙,( TG tF pFCpntlwwA lCCEzCEtlGp Jspy
[-[ VpEypw OpyFtGA PFGtxlGtzy lyo NwlFFt6nlGtzy =%%
Gsp otxpyFtzy C zq Gsp qplGHEp FClnp tF strs+ xlvtyr opyFtGA pFGtxlGtzy

HylGGElnGtIp- jsp yltIp MlApF xzopw lFFHxpF GslG rtIpy l nwlFF R ˆ u+ Gsp
qplGHEpF cv lEp tyopCpyopyG9
C
∏
qH ’c( ˆ qHv ’cv (, ’[-=[(
vˆ0
bstwp GstF lFFHxCGtzy tF rpypElwwA yzG GEHp+ tG ozpF FtxCwtqA Gsp pFGtxlGtzy
oElxlGtnlwwA9
| jsp tyotItoHlw nwlFF!nzyotGtzylw xlErtylw opyFtGtpF qHv nly plns mp

pFGtxlGpo FpClElGpwA HFtyr zyp!otxpyFtzylw vpEypw opyFtGA pFGtxlGpF-
jstF tF ty qlnG l rpypElwtBlGtzy zq Gsp zEtrtylw yltIp MlApF CEznpoHEpF+
Jstns HFpo HytIlEtlGp RlHFFtlyF Gz EpCEpFpyG GspFp xlErtylwF-
| Tq l nzxCzypyG cH zq c tF otFnEpGp+ Gspy ly lCCEzCEtlGp stFGzrElx

pFGtxlGp nly mp HFpo- jstF CEzItopF l FplxwpFF JlA zq xtKtyr IlEtlmwp
GACpF ty l qplGHEp IpnGzE-
OpFCtGp GspFp ElGspE zCGtxtFGtn lFFHxCGtzyF+ yltIp MlApF nwlFFt¨pEF zqGpy

zHGCpEqzEx qlE xzEp FzCstFGtnlGpo lwGpEylGtIpF- jsp EplFzyF lEp EpwlGpo Gz
QtrHEp [-%49 lwGszHrs Gsp tyotItoHlw nwlFF opyFtGA pFGtxlGpF xlA mp mtlFpo+
GstF mtlF xtrsG yzG sHEG Gsp CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGtpF lF xHns+ pFCpntlwwA
yplE Gsp opntFtzy EprtzyF- Ty qlnG+ Gsp CEzmwpx xlA mp lmwp Gz JtGsFGlyo
nzyFtopElmwp mtlF qzE Gsp FlItyrF ty IlEtlynp FHns l ˜yltIp˙ lFFHxCGtzy
plEyF-
iGlEGtyr qEzx ’[-=[( Jp nly opEtIp Gsp wzrtG!GElyFqzEx ’HFtyr nwlFF U lF
Gsp mlFp(9
fE’R ˆ ℓKc( πℓ qℓ ’c(

wzr ˆ wzr
fE’R ˆ UKc( πU qU ’c(
MC
πℓ vˆ0 qℓv ’cv (
ˆ wzr MC
πU vˆ0 qUv ’cv (
C ’[-=fi(
πℓ ∑ qℓv ’cv (
ˆ wzr ) wzr
πU qUv ’cv (
vˆ0
C
∑
ˆ αℓ ) rℓv ’cv (,
vˆ0
jstF slF Gsp qzEx zq l rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopw+ Jstns tF opFnEtmpo ty xzEp
opGltw ty NslCGpE –- jsp xzopwF lEp ¨G ty DHtGp otΓpEpyG JlAF GszHrs: GsptE
otΓpEpynpF lEp pKCwzEpo ty PKpEntFp [-–- jsp EpwlGtzyFstC mpGJppy yltIp
MlApF lyo rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopwF tF lylwzrzHF Gz GslG mpGJppy wtyplE
otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF lyo wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy ’ipnGtzy ?-?-4(-
=%= [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
”-fi hlotlw MlFtF QHynGtzyF lyo VpEypwF

Ty NslCGpE
(X 4+ qHynGtzyF lEp EpCEpFpyGpo lF pKClyFtzyF ty mlFtF qHynGtzyF9
q ’K( ˆ Hˆ0 βH sH ’K(- jsp lEG zq 7pKtmwp xzopwtyr HFtyr mlFtF pKClyFtzyF
nzyFtFGF zq Ctnvtyr ly lCCEzCEtlGp qlxtwA zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF+ lyo Gspy nzy!
GEzwwtyr Gsp nzxCwpKtGA zq Gsp EpCEpFpyGlGtzy mA FpwpnGtzy+ EprHwlEtBlGtzy+ zE
mzGs- izxp zq Gsp qlxtwtpF zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF slIp pwpxpyGF GslG lEp opÿpo
wznlwwA: qzE pKlxCwp+ M!FCwtypF lEp opÿpo wznlwwA ty Th- Tq xzEp 7pKtmtwtGA
tF opFtEpo ty l ClEGtnHwlE Eprtzy+ Gspy GslG Eprtzy yppoF Gz mp EpCEpFpyGpo
mA xzEp mlFtF qHynGtzyF ’Jstns ty Gsp nlFp zq M!FCwtypF GElyFwlGpF Gz xzEp
vyzGF(- jpyFzE CEzoHnGF zq Th!wznlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF opwtIpE mlFtF qHynGtzyF
wznlw ty ThC - YzG lww mlFtF qHynGtzyF lEp wznlw1qzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp GEHynlGpo
CzJpE mlFpF qzE FCwtypF+ zE Gsp Ftrxztolw mlFtF qHynGtzyF σ’α$ ) αK( HFpo
ty ypHElw!ypGJzEvF ’Fpp NslCGpE %%(- jsp nzxCzFpo qHynGtzy q ’K( nly ypI!
pEGspwpFF FszJ wznlw mpslItzE+ mpnlHFp zq Gsp ClEGtnHwlE FtryF lyo IlwHpF
zq Gsp nzpffntpyGF nlHFtyr nlynpwwlGtzyF zq rwzmlw pΓpnGF- QzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp
GEHynlGpo CzJpE mlFtF slF ly pDHtIlwpyG M!FCwtyp mlFtF qzE Gsp Flxp FClnp
zq qHynGtzyF: Gsp nlynpwwlGtzy tF pKlnG ty GstF nlFp-
VpEypw xpGszoF lnstpIp 7pKtmtwtGA mA ¨GGtyr FtxCwp xzopwF ty l Eprtzy
wznlw Gz Gsp GlErpG CztyG K$ - znlwtBlGtzy tF lnstpIpo Itl l JptrsGtyr vpEypw
Vλ + lyo tyotItoHlw zmFpEIlGtzyF EpnptIp JptrsGF Vλ ’K$ W Kt (-
hlotlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF nzxmtyp GspFp toplF+ mA GEplGtyr Gsp vpEypw qHyn!
GtzyF Vλ ’ξW K( lF mlFtF qHynGtzyF- jstF wploF Gz Gsp xzopw
X
∑
q ’K( ˆ Vλu ’ξH W K(βH
Hˆ0
X
∑ 9 )
KKK } ξH KK
ˆ O βH W ’[-=](
Hˆ0
λH
JspEp plns mlFtF pwpxpyG tF tyopKpo mA l wznlGtzy zE CEzGzGACp ClElxpGpE ξH

lyo l Fnlwp ClElxpGpE λH - L CzCHwlE nsztnp qzE O tF Gsp FGlyolEo RlHFFtly
opyFtGA qHynGtzy- jspEp lEp FpIpElw lCCEzlnspF Gz wplEytyr Gsp ClElxpGpEF
·λH W ξH W βH •W u ˆ %W , , , W X - QzE FtxCwtntGA Jp Jtww qznHF zy wplFG FDHlEpF
xpGszoF qzE EprEpFFtzy+ lyo HFp Gsp RlHFFtly vpEypw-
| ZCGtxtBp Gsp FHx!zq!FDHlEpF JtGs EpFCpnG Gz lww Gsp ClElxpGpEF9

 " / =
Y
∑ X
∑ j
At } β$ } ’Kt } ξH ( ’Kt } ξH (  ,
xty βH pKC }
·λu Wξu Wβu |c
0 tˆ0 Hˆ0
λ=H
’[-=–(
jstF xzopw tF nzxxzywA EpqpEEpo Gz lF ly hMQ ypGJzEv+ ly lwGpEyl!
GtIp Gz Gsp Ftrxztolw ypHElw ypGJzEv otFnHFFpo ty NslCGpE %%: Gsp ξH
lyo λH CwlAtyr Gsp Ezwp zq Gsp JptrsGF- jstF nEtGpEtzy tF yzynzyIpK
[-fi hlotlw MlFtF QHynGtzyF lyo VpEypwF =%“
8
6
4
2
0
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
QTRIFD 5W05W RlHFFtly Elotlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF ty Th JtGs 6Kpo JtoGs nly wplIp
szwpF ’GzC Clypw(- hpyzExlwtBpo RlHFFtly Elotlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF lIzto GstF CEzm,
wpx+ lyo CEzoHnp mlFtF qHynGtzyF FtxtwlE ty Fzxp EpFCpnGF Gz M,FCwtypF-
JtGs xHwGtCwp wznlw xtytxl+ lyo Gsp lwrzEtGsxF qzE zCGtxtBlGtzy lEp
FtxtwlE Gz GszFp HFpo qzE ypHElw ypGJzEvF-
| PFGtxlGp Gsp ·λH W ξH • FpClElGpwA qEzx Gsp βH - RtIpy Gsp qzExpE+ Gsp
pFGtxlGtzy zq Gsp wlGGpE tF l FtxCwp wplFG FDHlEpF CEzmwpx- ZqGpy Gsp
vpEypw ClElxpGpEF λH lyo ξH lEp nszFpy ty ly HyFHCpEItFpo JlA HFtyr
Gsp c otFGEtmHGtzy lwzyp- Zyp zq Gsp xpGszoF tF Gz ¨G l RlHFFtly
xtKGHEp opyFtGA xzopw Gz Gsp GEltytyr Kt + Jstns CEzItopF mzGs Gsp
npyGpEF ξH lyo Gsp FnlwpF λH - ZGspE pIpy xzEp loszn lCCEzlnspF HFp
nwHFGpEtyr xpGszoF Gz wznlGp Gsp CEzGzGACpF ξH + lyo GEplG λH ˆ λ
lF l sACpE!ClElxpGpE- jsp zmItzHF oElJmlnv zq GspFp lCCEzlnspF tF
GslG Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy fE’d Kc( lyo ty ClEGtnHwlE P’d Kc(
tF slItyr yz FlA ty JspEp Gsp lnGtzy tF nzynpyGElGpo- Zy Gsp CzFtGtIp
Ftop+ GspA lEp xHns FtxCwpE Gz txCwpxpyG-
bstwp tG JzHwo Fppx lGGElnGtIp Gz EpoHnp Gsp ClElxpGpE FpG lyo lFFHxp
l nzyFGlyG IlwHp qzE λH ˆ λ+ GstF nly slIp ly HyopFtElmwp Ftop pΓpnG zq
nEplGtyr szwpF1EprtzyF zq ThC JspEp yzyp zq Gsp vpEypwF slF lCCEpntlmwp
FHCCzEG+ lF twwHFGElGpo ty QtrHEp [-%[ ’HCCpE Clypw(- hpyzExlwtBpo Elotlw
mlFtF qHynGtzyF+
O’KKK } ξH KK.λ(
sH ’K( ˆ (X W ’[-“$(
vˆ0 O’KKK } ξv KK.λ(
lIzto GstF CEzmwpx ’wzJpE Clypw(-
jsp YlolElAl8blGFzy vpEypw EprEpFFtzy pFGtxlGzE ’[-=( ty ThC nly mp
ItpJpo lF ly pKClyFtzy ty EpyzExlwtBpo Elotlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF+
(Y
q—’K$ ( ˆ tˆ0 At dVλV WK$ WKt (
t10 λ WK$ WKt (
(Y
ˆ tˆ0 At st ’K$ ( ’[-“%(
=%? [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
JtGs l mlFtF qHynGtzy st wznlGpo lG pIpEA zmFpEIlGtzy lyo nzpffntpyGF At :

GslG tF+ ξt ˆ Kt W β—t ˆ At W t ˆ %W , , , W Y -
YzGp Gsp FtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy Gsp pKClyFtzy ’[-“%( lyo Gsp FzwHGtzy ’4-4$(
zy Clrp %[– Gz Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy CEzmwpx tyoHnpo mA Gsp vpEypw V- hlotlw
mlFtF qHynGtzyF qzEx Gsp mEtorp mpGJppy Gsp xzopEy ˜vpEypw xpGszoF˙ lyo
wznlw ¨GGtyr GpnsyzwzrA-
”-7 ctKGHEp czopwF qzE OpyFtGA PFGtxlGtzy lyo

NwlFFt6nlGtzy
jsp xtKGHEp xzopw tF l HFpqHw Gzzw qzE opyFtGA pFGtxlGtzy+ lyo nly mp ItpJpo
lF l vtyo zq vpEypw xpGszo- jsp RlHFFtly xtKGHEp xzopw slF Gsp qzEx
∑X
q ’K( ˆ αx φ’K: <x W :x ( ’[-“=(
xˆ0
(
JtGs xtKtyr CEzCzEGtzyF αx W x αx ˆ %+ lyo plns RlHFFtly opyFtGA slF
l xply <x lyo nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK :x - Ty rpypElw+ xtKGHEp xzopwF nly HFp
lyA nzxCzypyG opyFtGtpF ty Cwlnp zq Gsp RlHFFtly ty ’[-“=(9 Gsp RlHFFtly
xtKGHEp xzopw tF mA qlE Gsp xzFG CzCHwlE-
jsp ClElxpGpEF lEp HFHlwwA ¨G mA xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo+ HFtyr Gsp PX
lwrzEtGsx lF opFnEtmpo ty NslCGpE ]- izxp FCpntlw nlFpF lEtFp9
| Tq Gsp nzIlEtlynp xlGEtnpF lEp nzyFGEltypo Gz mp FnlwlE9 :x ˆ σx T+
Gspy ’[-“=( slF Gsp qzEx zq l Elotlw mlFtF pKClyFtzy-
| Tq ty lootGtzy σx ˆ σ / $ tF ¨Kpo+ lyo X ↑ Y + Gspy Gsp xlK!
txHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp qzE ’[-“=( lCCEzlnspF Gsp vpEypw opyFtGA
pFGtxlGp ’[-==( JspEp α
— x ˆ %.Y lyo <—x ˆ Kx -
kFtyr MlApF& GspzEpx+ FpClElGp xtKGHEp opyFtGtpF ty plns nwlFF wplo Gz 7pK!
tmwp xzopwF qzE fE’RKc(: GstF tF Glvpy HC ty Fzxp opGltw ty NslCGpE %=-
QtrHEp [-%fi FszJF ly lCCwtnlGtzy zq xtKGHEpF Gz Gsp splEG otFplFp EtFv!
qlnGzE FGHoA- Ty Gsp GzC EzJ lEp stFGzrElxF zq Lrp qzE Gsp yz NSO lyo NSO
rEzHCF FpClElGpwA+ lyo Gspy nzxmtypo zy Gsp EtrsG- kFtyr Gsp nzxmtypo
olGl+ Jp ¨G l GJz!nzxCzypyG xtKGHEp zq Gsp qzEx ’[-“=( JtGs Gsp ’FnlwlEF(
:0 lyo := yzG nzyFGEltypo Gz mp pDHlw- QtGGtyr JlF ozyp Itl Gsp PX
lwrzEtGsx ’NslCGpE ](9 yzGp GslG Gsp CEznpoHEp ozpF yzG HFp vyzJwporp zq
Gsp NSO wlmpwF- jsp EpFHwGtyr pFGtxlGpF JpEp
<
—0 ˆ “[,?W — 0 ˆ %4fi,fiW
´ α
— 0 ˆ $,fiW
<
—= ˆ 4],$W — = ˆ %4,[W
´ α
— = ˆ $,“,
jsp nzxCzypyG opyFtGtpF φ’— — 0 ( lyo φ’—
<0 W ´ — = ( lEp FszJy ty Gsp wzJpE!
<= W ´
wpqG lyo xtoowp ClypwF- jsp wzJpE!EtrsG Clypw FszJF GspFp nzxCzypyG opy!
FtGtpF ’zElyrp lyo mwHp( lwzyr JtGs Gsp pFGtxlGpo xtKGHEp opyFtGA ’rEppy(-
[-] ctKGHEp czopwF qzE OpyFtGA PFGtxlGtzy lyo NwlFFt6nlGtzy =%4
No CHD CHD Combined
30
15
20
25
20
15
10
Count
Count
Count
15
10
10
5
5
5
0
0
20 30 40 50 60 20 30 40 50 60 20 30 40 50 60
Age Age Age

0.10
0.10
0.10
0.08
0.08
0.08
Mixture Estimate
Mixture Estimate
Mixture Estimate
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
20 30 40 50 60 20 30 40 50 60 20 30 40 50 60
Age Age Age
QTRIFD 5W06W LCCwtnlGtzy zq xtKGHEpF Gz Gsp splEG otFplFp EtFv,qlnGzE FGHoA-

’jzC EzJ9( StFGzrElxF zq Lrp qzE Gsp yz NSO lyo NSO rEzHCF FpClElGpwA+ lyo
nzxmtypo- ’MzGGzx EzJ9( pFGtxlGpo nzxCzypyG opyFtGtpF qEzx l RlHFFtly xtK,
GHEp xzopw+ ’mzGGzx wpqG+ mzGGzx xtoowp(‘ ’mzGGzx EtrsG9( PFGtxlGpo nzxCzypyG
opyFtGtpF ’mwHp lyo zElyrp( lwzyr JtGs Gsp pFGtxlGpo xtKGHEp opyFtGA ’rEppy(- jsp
zElyrp opyFtGA slF l IpEA wlErp FGlyolEo opItlGtzy+ lyo lCCEzKtxlGpF l HytqzEx
opyFtGA-
jsp xtKGHEp xzopw lwFz CEzItopF ly pFGtxlGp zq Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA GslG

zmFpEIlGtzy t mpwzyrF Gz nzxCzypyG x+
α
— x φ’Kt : <
—x W ´— x(
E—tx ˆ (X W ’[-““(
— v(
vˆ0 α— v φ’Kt : <
—v W ´
JspEp Kt tF Lrp ty zHE pKlxCwp- iHCCzFp Jp GsEpFszwo plns IlwHp E—t= lyo
spynp opÿp δ—t ˆ T’—
Et= / $,4(- jspy Jp nly nzxClEp Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy zq
plns zmFpEIlGtzy mA NSO lyo Gsp xtKGHEp xzopw9
XtKGHEp xzopw
δ— ˆ $ δ— ˆ %
NSO Yz =“= fi$
dpF fi[ ]?
LwGszHrs Gsp xtKGHEp xzopw oto yzG HFp Gsp NSO wlmpwF+ tG slF ozyp l qltE
uzm ty otFnzIpEtyr Gsp GJz NSO FHmCzCHwlGtzyF- typlE wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy+
HFtyr Gsp NSO lF l EpFCzyFp+ lnstpIpF Gsp Flxp pEEzE ElGp ’“=0( Jspy ¨G Gz
GspFp olGl HFtyr xlKtxHx!wtvpwtszzo ’ipnGtzy ?-?(-
=%[ [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
”-– NzxCHGlGtzylw NzyFtopElGtzyF

VpEypw lyo wznlw EprEpFFtzy lyo opyFtGA pFGtxlGtzy lEp xpxzEA,mlFpo xpGs!
zoF9 Gsp xzopw tF Gsp pyGtEp GEltytyr olGl FpG+ lyo Gsp ¨GGtyr tF ozyp lG
pIlwHlGtzy zE CEpotnGtzy Gtxp- QzE xlyA Eplw!Gtxp lCCwtnlGtzyF+ GstF nly
xlvp GstF nwlFF zq xpGszoF tyqplFtmwp-
jsp nzxCHGlGtzylw nzFG Gz ¨G lG l Ftyrwp zmFpEIlGtzy K$ tF Z’Y ( 7zCF+
pKnpCG ty zIpEFtxCwt¨po nlFpF ’FHns lF FDHlEp vpEypwF(- MA nzxClEtFzy+
ly pKClyFtzy ty X mlFtF qHynGtzyF nzFGF Z’X ( qzE zyp pIlwHlGtzy+ lyo
GACtnlwwA X ∼ Z’wzr Y (- MlFtF qHynGtzy xpGszoF slIp ly tytGtlw nzFG zq lG
wplFG Z’Y X = ) X ˜ (-
jsp FxzzGstyr ClElxpGpE’F( λ qzE vpEypw xpGszoF lEp GACtnlwwA opGpE!
xtypo zΓ!wtyp+ qzE pKlxCwp HFtyr nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy+ lG l nzFG zq Z’Y = ( 7zCF-
fzCHwlE txCwpxpyGlGtzyF zq wznlw EprEpFFtzy+ FHns lF Gsp wzpFF qHynGtzy ty
i!f ki lyo h lyo Gsp wznDtG CEznpoHEp ’ zlopE+ %–––(+ HFp GEtlyrHwlGtzy
FnspxpF Gz EpoHnp Gsp nzxCHGlGtzyF- jspA nzxCHGp Gsp ¨G pKlnGwA lG X
nlEpqHwwA nszFpy wznlGtzyF ’Z’Y X ((+ lyo Gspy HFp mwpyotyr GpnsytDHpF Gz
tyGpECzwlGp Gsp ¨G pwFpJspEp ’Z’X ( CpE pIlwHlGtzy(-
MtmwtzrElCstn dzGpF
jspEp tF l IlFG wtGpElGHEp zy vpEypw xpGszoF Jstns Jp Jtww yzG lGGpxCG Gz
FHxxlEtBp- hlGspE Jp Jtww CztyG Gz l qpJ rzzo EpqpEpynpF GslG GspxFpwIpF
slIp pKGpyFtIp mtmwtzrElCstpF- zlopE ’%–––( rtIpF pKnpwwpyG nzIpElrp zq wz!
nlw EprEpFFtzy lyo wtvpwtszzo+ lyo lwFz opFnEtmpF FGlGp!zq!Gsp!lEG FzqGJlEp
qzE ¨GGtyr GspFp xzopwF- Qly lyo RtumpwF ’%––[( nzIpE GspFp xzopwF qEzx
l xzEp GspzEpGtnlw lFCpnG- SlFGtp lyo jtmFstElyt ’%––$( otFnHFF wznlw Ep!
rEpFFtzy ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq lootGtIp xzopwtyr- itwIpExly ’%–][( rtIpF l rzzo
zIpEItpJ zq opyFtGA pFGtxlGtzy+ lF ozpF inzGG ’%––=(-
PKpEntFpF
PK- [-% iszJ GslG Gsp YlolElAl8blGFzy vpEypw FxzzGs JtGs ¨Kpo xpGEtn
mlyoJtoGs λ lyo l RlHFFtly vpEypw tF otΓpEpyGtlmwp- bslG nly mp Flto qzE
Gsp PClypnsytvzI vpEypw¯ bslG nly mp Flto qzE Gsp PClypnsytvzI vpEypw
JtGs lolCGtIp yplEpFG!yptrsmzE mlyoJtoGs λ’K$ (¯
(Y
PK- [-= iszJ GslG tˆ0 ’Kt }K$ (wt ’K$ ( ˆ $ qzE wznlw wtyplE EprEpFFtzy- Opÿp
(Y
mH ’K$ ( ˆ tˆ0 ’Kt } K$ (H wt ’K$ (- iszJ GslG m$ ’K$ ( ˆ % qzE wznlw CzwAyzxtlw
EprEpFFtzy zq lyA oprEpp ’tynwHotyr wznlw nzyFGlyGF(- iszJ GslG mH ’K$ ( ˆ $
qzE lww u ∈ ·%W =W , , , W v• qzE wznlw CzwAyzxtlw EprEpFFtzy zq oprEpp v- bslG
lEp Gsp txCwtnlGtzyF zq GstF zy Gsp mtlF¯
PKpEntFpF =%fi
PK- [-“ iszJ GslG KKw’K(KK ’ipnGtzy [-%-=( tynEplFpF JtGs Gsp oprEpp zq Gsp
wznlw CzwAyzxtlw-
PK- [-? iHCCzFp GslG Gsp C CEpotnGzEF c lEtFp qEzx FlxCwtyr EpwlGtIpwA
FxzzGs lylwzr nHEIpF lG C HytqzExwA FClnpo lmFntFFl IlwHpF- OpyzGp mA
NzI’cKd ( ˆ : Gsp nzyotGtzylw nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF+ lyo
lFFHxp GstF ozpF yzG nslyrp xHns JtGs d - OtFnHFF Gsp ylGHEp zq Xlsl,
wlyzmtF nsztnp L ˆ :}0 qzE Gsp xpGEtn ty ’[-%?(- SzJ ozpF GstF nzxClEp
JtGs L ˆ T¯ SzJ xtrsG AzH nzyFGEHnG l vpEypw L GslG ’l( ozJyJptrsGF
strs!qEpDHpynA nzxCzypyGF ty Gsp otFGlynp xpGEtn: ’m( tryzEpF Gspx
nzxCwpGpwA¯
PK- [-4 iszJ GslG ¨GGtyr l wznlwwA nzyFGlyG xHwGtyzxtlw wzrtG xzopw zq
Gsp qzEx ’[-%–( lxzHyGF Gz FxzzGstyr Gsp mtylEA EpFCzyFp tyotnlGzEF qzE
plns nwlFF FpClElGpwA HFtyr l YlolElAl8blGFzy vpEypw FxzzGspE JtGs vpEypw
JptrsGF Vλ ’K$ W Kt (-
PK- [-[ iHCCzFp GslG lww AzH slIp tF FzqGJlEp qzE ¨GGtyr wznlw EprEpFFtzy+
mHG AzH nly FCpntqA pKlnGwA Jstns xzyzxtlwF lEp tynwHopo ty Gsp ¨G- SzJ
nzHwo AzH HFp GstF FzqGJlEp Gz ¨G l IlEAtyr!nzpffntpyG xzopw ty Fzxp zq Gsp
IlEtlmwpF¯
PK- [-fi OpEtIp ly pKCEpFFtzy qzE Gsp wplIp!zyp!zHG nEzFF!IlwtolGpo EpFtoHlw
FHx!zq!FDHlEpF qzE wznlw CzwAyzxtlw EprEpFFtzy-
PK- [-] iHCCzFp GslG qzE nzyGtyHzHF EpFCzyFp d lyo CEpotnGzE c+ Jp xzopw
Gsp uztyG opyFtGA zq cW d HFtyr l xHwGtIlEtlGp RlHFFtly vpEypw pFGtxlGzE-
YzGp GslG Gsp vpEypw ty GstF nlFp JzHwo mp Gsp CEzoHnG vpEypw φλ ’c(φλ ’d (-
iszJ GslG Gsp nzyotGtzylw xply P’d Kc( opEtIpo qEzx GstF pFGtxlGp tF l
YlolElAl8blGFzy pFGtxlGzE- PKGpyo GstF EpFHwG Gz nwlFFt¨nlGtzy mA CEz!
Itotyr l FHtGlmwp vpEypw qzE Gsp pFGtxlGtzy zq Gsp uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy zq l
nzyGtyHzHF c lyo otFnEpGp d -
PK- [-– PKCwzEp Gsp otΓpEpynpF mpGJppy Gsp yltIp MlApF xzopw ’[-=fi( lyo
l rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw+ ty GpExF zq ’l( xzopw lF!
FHxCGtzyF lyo ’m( pFGtxlGtzy- Tq lww Gsp IlEtlmwpF cv lEp otFnEpGp+ JslG nly
AzH FlA lmzHG Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr RLX¯
PK- [-%$ iHCCzFp Jp slIp Y FlxCwpF rpypElGpo qEzx Gsp xzopw At ˆ q ’Kt ()
εt + JtGs εt tyopCpyopyG lyo topyGtnlwwA otFGEtmHGpo JtGs xply BpEz lyo
IlEtlynp σ = + Gsp Kt lFFHxpo ¨Kpo ’yzy Elyozx(- bp pFGtxlGp q HFtyr l
wtyplE FxzzGspE ’wznlw EprEpFFtzy+ FxzzGstyr FCwtyp+ pGn-( JtGs FxzzGstyr
ClElxpGpE λ- jsHF Gsp IpnGzE zq ¨GGpo IlwHpF tF rtIpy mA —D ˆ iλ A- NzyFtopE
Gsp ty,FlxCwp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE
Y
% ∑ { —
fP’λ( ˆ P ’A } qλ ’Kt ((= ’[-“?(
Y tˆ0 t
=%] [- VpEypw ixzzGstyr cpGszoF
qzE CEpotnGtyr ypJ EpFCzyFpF lG Gsp Y tyCHG IlwHpF- iszJ GslG Gsp lIpE!
lrp FDHlEpo EpFtoHlw zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl+ Lih’λ(+ tF l mtlFpo pFGtxlGp
’zCGtxtFGtn( qzE fP’λ(+ Jstwp
=σ =
Nλ ˆ Lih’λ( ) GElnp’iλ ( ’[-“4(
Y
tF HymtlFpo-
PK- [-%% iszJ GslG qzE Gsp RlHFFtly xtKGHEp xzopw ’[-“=( Gsp wtvpwtszzo
tF xlKtxtBpo lG )∞+ lyo opFnEtmp szJ-
PK- [-%= bEtGp l nzxCHGpE CEzrElx Gz CpEqzEx l wznlw wtyplE otFnEtxt!

ylyG lylwAFtF- LG plns DHpEA CztyG K$ + Gsp GEltytyr olGl EpnptIp JptrsGF
Vλ ’K$ W Kt ( qEzx l JptrsGtyr vpEypw+ lyo Gsp tyrEpotpyGF qzE Gsp wtyplE opnt!
Ftzy mzHyolEtpF ’Fpp ipnGtzy ?-“( lEp nzxCHGpo mA JptrsGpo lIpElrpF- jEA
zHG AzHE CEzrElx zy Gsp BtCnzop olGl+ lyo FszJ Gsp GEltytyr lyo GpFG pE!
EzEF qzE l FpEtpF zq Ïp CEp!nszFpy IlwHpF zq λ- jsp BtCnzop olGl lEp lIltwlmwp
qEzx Gsp mzzv JpmFtGp UUU!FGlG-FGlyDzEo-poH#PwpxiGlG plEy-
jstF tF Clrp =%–
fi
czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
fi-0 TyGEzoHnGtzy
jsp rpypElwtBlGtzy CpEqzExlynp zq l wplEytyr xpGszo EpwlGpF Gz tGF CEpotn!
Gtzy nlClmtwtGA zy tyopCpyopyG GpFG olGl- LFFpFFxpyG zq GstF CpEqzExlynp
tF pKGEpxpwA txCzEGlyG ty CElnGtnp+ Ftynp tG rHtopF Gsp nsztnp zq wplEytyr
xpGszo zE xzopw+ lyo rtIpF HF l xplFHEp zq Gsp DHlwtGA zq Gsp HwGtxlGpwA
nszFpy xzopw-
Ty GstF nslCGpE Jp opFnEtmp lyo twwHFGElGp Gsp vpA xpGszoF qzE CpEqzE!
xlynp lFFpFFxpyG+ lyo FszJ szJ GspA lEp HFpo Gz FpwpnG xzopwF- bp mprty
Gsp nslCGpE JtGs l otFnHFFtzy zq Gsp tyGpECwlA mpGJppy mtlF+ IlEtlynp lyo
xzopw nzxCwpKtGA-
fi-1 MtlF) alEtlynp lyo czopw NzxCwpKtGA

QtrHEp fi-% twwHFGElGpF Gsp txCzEGlyG tFFHp ty lFFpFFtyr Gsp lmtwtGA zq l wplEy!
tyr xpGszo Gz rpypElwtBp- NzyFtopE ËFG Gsp nlFp zq l DHlyGtGlGtIp zE tyGpEIlw
Fnlwp EpFCzyFp- bp slIp l GlErpG IlEtlmwp d + l IpnGzE zq tyCHGF c+ lyo l
CEpotnGtzy xzopw q—’c( GslG slF mppy pFGtxlGpo qEzx l GEltytyr FpG H -
jsp wzFF qHynGtzy qzE xplFHEtyr pEEzEF mpGJppy d lyo q—’c( tF opyzGpo mA
’dW q—’c((- jACtnlw nsztnpF lEp
"
’d } q—’c((= FDHlEpo pEEzE
’dW q—’c(( ˆ ’fi-%(
Kd } q—’c(K lmFzwHGp pEEzE,
==/ fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
High Bias Low Bias
1.2
Low Variance High Variance
1.0
0.8
Prediction Error
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Model Complexity (df)
QTRIFD 6W0W MpslItzE zq GpFG FlxCwp lyo GEltytyr FlxCwp pEEzE lF Gsp xzopw
nzxCwpKtGA tF IlEtpo- jsp wtrsG mwHp nHEIpF FszJ Gsp GEltytyr pEEzE pEE+ Jstwp Gsp
wtrsG Epo nHEIpF FszJ Gsp nzyotGtzylw GpFG pEEzE PEE qzE %// GEltytyr FpGF zq FtBp
4/ plns+ lF Gsp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA tF tynEplFpo- jsp Fzwto nHEIpF FszJ Gsp pKCpnGpo
GpFG pEEzE PEE lyo Gsp pKCpnGpo GEltytyr pEEzE P”pEE7-
jpFG pEEzE+ lwFz EpqpEEpo Gz lF rpypElwtBlGtzy pEEzE+ tF Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE

zIpE ly tyopCpyopyG GpFG FlxCwp
PEEH ˆ P” ’dW q—’c((KH fl ’fi-=(
JspEp mzGs c lyo d lEp oElJy ElyozxwA qEzx GsptE uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy
’CzCHwlGtzy(- SpEp Gsp GEltytyr FpG H tF ¨Kpo+ lyo GpFG pEEzE EpqpEF Gz Gsp
pEEzE qzE GstF FCpnt¨n GEltytyr FpG- L EpwlGpo DHlyGtGA tF Gsp pKCpnGpo CEp!
otnGtzy pEEzE ’zE pKCpnGpo GpFG pEEzE(
PEE ˆ P” ’dW q—’c((fl ˆ P”PEEH fl, ’fi-“(
YzGp GslG GstF pKCpnGlGtzy lIpElrpF zIpE pIpEAGstyr GslG tF Elyozx+ tynwHo!
tyr Gsp ElyozxypFF ty Gsp GEltytyr FpG GslG CEzoHnpo q—-
QtrHEp fi-% FszJF Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE ’wtrsG Epo nHEIpF( PEEH qzE %$$
FtxHwlGpo GEltytyr FpGF plns zq FtBp 4$- jsp wlFFz ’ipnGtzy “-?-=( JlF HFpo
Gz CEzoHnp Gsp FpDHpynp zq ¨GF- jsp Fzwto Epo nHEIp tF Gsp lIpElrp+ lyo
spynp ly pFGtxlGp zq PEE-
PFGtxlGtzy zq PEEH Jtww mp zHE rzlw+ lwGszHrs Jp Jtww Fpp GslG PEE tF
xzEp lxpylmwp Gz FGlGtFGtnlw lylwAFtF+ lyo xzFG xpGszoF pΓpnGtIpwA pFGt!
xlGp Gsp pKCpnGpo pEEzE- TG ozpF yzG Fppx CzFFtmwp Gz pFGtxlGp nzyotGtzylw
fi-= MtlF+ alEtlynp lyo czopw NzxCwpKtGA ==%
pEEzE pΓpnGtIpwA+ rtIpy zywA Gsp tyqzExlGtzy ty Gsp Flxp GEltytyr FpG- izxp
otFnHFFtzy zq GstF CztyG tF rtIpy ty ipnGtzy fi-%=-
jEltytyr pEEzE tF Gsp lIpElrp wzFF zIpE Gsp GEltytyr FlxCwp
Y
% ∑
pEE ˆ ’At W q—’Kt ((, ’fi-?(
Y tˆ0
bp JzHwo wtvp Gz vyzJ Gsp pKCpnGpo GpFG pEEzE zq zHE pFGtxlGpo xzopw
q—- LF Gsp xzopw mpnzxpF xzEp lyo xzEp nzxCwpK+ tG HFpF Gsp GEltytyr
olGl xzEp lyo tF lmwp Gz lolCG Gz xzEp nzxCwtnlGpo HyopEwAtyr FGEHnGHEpF-
Spynp GspEp tF l opnEplFp ty mtlF mHG ly tynEplFp ty IlEtlynp- jspEp tF Fzxp
tyGpExpotlGp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA GslG rtIpF xtytxHx pKCpnGpo GpFG pEEzE-
kyqzEGHylGpwA GEltytyr pEEzE tF yzG l rzzo pFGtxlGp zq Gsp GpFG pEEzE+
lF Fppy ty QtrHEp fi-%- jEltytyr pEEzE nzyFtFGpyGwA opnEplFpF JtGs xzopw
nzxCwpKtGA+ GACtnlwwA oEzCCtyr Gz BpEz tq Jp tynEplFp Gsp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA
pyzHrs- SzJpIpE+ l xzopw JtGs BpEz GEltytyr pEEzE tF zIpE¨G Gz Gsp GEltytyr
olGl lyo Jtww GACtnlwwA rpypElwtBp CzzEwA-
jsp FGzEA tF FtxtwlE qzE l DHlwtGlGtIp zE nlGprzEtnlw EpFCzyFp R Glvtyr
zyp zq V IlwHpF ty l FpG Q+ wlmpwpo qzE nzyIpytpynp lF %W =W , , , W V- jACtnlwwA
Jp xzopw Gsp CEzmlmtwtGtpF Cv ’c( ˆ fE’R ˆ vKc( ’zE Fzxp xzyzGzyp
—
GElyFqzExlGtzyF qv ’c((+ lyo Gspy R’c( ˆ lEr xlKv C—v ’c(- Ty Fzxp nlFpF+
FHns lF %!yplEpFG yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ’NslCGpEF = lyo %“( Jp CEzoHnp
—
R’c( otEpnGwA- jACtnlw wzFF qHynGtzyF lEp
—
’RW R’c(( —
ˆ T’R 0ˆ R’c(( ’$8% wzFF(W ’fi-4(
V
∑
’RW C—’c(( ˆ }= T’R ˆ v( wzr C—v ’c(
vˆ0
ˆ }= wzr C—R ’c( ’}= × wzr!wtvpwtszzo(, ’fi-[(
jsp DHlyGtGA }= × Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo tF FzxpGtxpF EpqpEEpo Gz lF Gsp
opItlynp-
—
Lrlty+ GpFG pEEzE spEp tF PEEH ˆ P” ’RW R’c((KH fl+ Gsp CzCHwlGtzy xtF!
nwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE zq Gsp nwlFFt¨pE GEltypo zy H + lyo PEE tF Gsp pKCpnGpo
xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE-
jEltytyr pEEzE tF Gsp FlxCwp lylwzrHp+ qzE pKlxCwp+
Y
= ∑
pEE ˆ } wzr C—rt ’Kt (W ’fi-fi(
Y tˆ0
Gsp FlxCwp wzr!wtvpwtszzo qzE Gsp xzopw-

jsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo nly mp HFpo lF l wzFF!qHynGtzy qzE rpypElw EpFCzyFp
opyFtGtpF+ FHns lF Gsp fztFFzy+ rlxxl+ pKCzypyGtlw+ wzr!yzExlw lyo zGspEF-
Tq fEθWc( ’d ( tF Gsp opyFtGA zq d + tyopKpo mA l ClElxpGpE θ’c( GslG opCpyoF
zy Gsp CEpotnGzE c+ Gspy
’dW θ’c(( ˆ }= ± wzr fEθWc( ’d (, ’fi-](
=== fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
jsp ˜}=˙ ty Gsp opÿtGtzy xlvpF Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo wzFF qzE Gsp RlHFFtly
otFGEtmHGtzy xlGns FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF-
QzE plFp zq pKCzFtGtzy+ qzE Gsp EpxltyopE zq GstF nslCGpE Jp Jtww HFp d lyo
q ’c( Gz EpCEpFpyG lww zq Gsp lmzIp FtGHlGtzyF+ Ftynp Jp qznHF xltywA zy Gsp
DHlyGtGlGtIp EpFCzyFp ’FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF( FpGGtyr- QzE Gsp zGspE FtGHlGtzyF+
Gsp lCCEzCEtlGp GElyFwlGtzyF lEp zmItzHF-
Ty GstF nslCGpE Jp opFnEtmp l yHxmpE zq xpGszoF qzE pFGtxlGtyr Gsp
pKCpnGpo GpFG pEEzE qzE l xzopw- jACtnlwwA zHE xzopw Jtww slIp l GHytyr
ClElxpGpE zE ClElxpGpEF α lyo Fz Jp nly JEtGp zHE CEpotnGtzyF lF q—α ’K(-
jsp GHytyr ClElxpGpE IlEtpF Gsp nzxCwpKtGA zq zHE xzopw+ lyo Jp JtFs Gz
ÿo Gsp IlwHp zq α GslG xtytxtBpF pEEzE+ GslG tF+ CEzoHnpF Gsp xtytxHx zq
Gsp lIpElrp GpFG pEEzE nHEIp ty QtrHEp fi-%- SlItyr Flto GstF+ qzE mEpItGA Jp
Jtww zqGpy FHCCEpFF Gsp opCpyopynp zq q—’K( zy α-
TG tF txCzEGlyG Gz yzGp GslG GspEp lEp ty qlnG GJz FpClElGp rzlwF GslG Jp
xtrsG slIp ty xtyo9
cModi edidnstM m pFGtxlGtyr Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq otΓpEpyG xzopwF ty zEopE

Gz nszzFp Gsp mpFG zyp-
cModi leedeead sm slItyr nszFpy l ÿlw xzopw+ pFGtxlGtyr tGF CEpotn!
Gtzy pEEzE ’rpypElwtBlGtzy pEEzE( zy ypJ olGl-
Tq Jp lEp ty l olGl!Etns FtGHlGtzy+ Gsp mpFG lCCEzlns qzE mzGs CEzmwpxF tF

Gz ElyozxwA otItop Gsp olGlFpG tyGz GsEpp ClEGF9 l GEltytyr FpG+ l IlwtolGtzy
FpG+ lyo l GpFG FpG- jsp GEltytyr FpG tF HFpo Gz ¨G Gsp xzopwF: Gsp IlwtolGtzy
FpG tF HFpo Gz pFGtxlGp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE qzE xzopw FpwpnGtzy: Gsp GpFG FpG tF
HFpo qzE lFFpFFxpyG zq Gsp rpypElwtBlGtzy pEEzE zq Gsp ÿlw nszFpy xzopw-
ToplwwA+ Gsp GpFG FpG FszHwo mp vpCG ty l ˜IlHwG+˙ lyo mp mEzHrsG zHG zywA
lG Gsp pyo zq Gsp olGl lylwAFtF- iHCCzFp tyFGplo GslG Jp HFp Gsp GpFG!FpG
EpCplGpowA+ nszzFtyr Gsp xzopw JtGs FxlwwpFG GpFG!FpG pEEzE- jspy Gsp GpFG
FpG pEEzE zq Gsp ÿlw nszFpy xzopw Jtww HyopEpFGtxlGp Gsp GEHp GpFG pEEzE+
FzxpGtxpF FHmFGlyGtlwwA-
TG tF otffnHwG Gz rtIp l rpypElw EHwp zy szJ Gz nszzFp Gsp yHxmpE zq
zmFpEIlGtzyF ty plns zq Gsp GsEpp ClEGF+ lF GstF opCpyoF zy Gsp Ftrylw!Gz!
yztFp ElGtz ty Gsp olGl lyo Gsp GEltytyr FlxCwp FtBp- L GACtnlw FCwtG xtrsG
mp 4$0 qzE GEltytyr+ lyo =40 plns qzE IlwtolGtzy lyo GpFGtyr9
Train Validation Test
jsp xpGszoF ty GstF nslCGpE lEp opFtrypo qzE FtGHlGtzyF JspEp GspEp tF
tyFHffntpyG olGl Gz FCwtG tG tyGz GsEpp ClEGF- Lrlty tG tF Gzz otffnHwG Gz rtIp
l rpypElw EHwp zy szJ xHns GEltytyr olGl tF pyzHrs: lxzyr zGspE GstyrF+
GstF opCpyoF zy Gsp Ftrylw!Gz!yztFp ElGtz zq Gsp HyopEwAtyr qHynGtzy+ lyo
Gsp nzxCwpKtGA zq Gsp xzopwF mptyr ¨G Gz Gsp olGl-
fi-“ jsp MtlF8alEtlynp OpnzxCzFtGtzy ==“
jsp xpGszoF zq GstF nslCGpE lCCEzKtxlGp Gsp IlwtolGtzy FGpC ptGspE ly!
lwAGtnlwwA ’LTN+ MTN+ XO + ihX( zE mA pffntpyG FlxCwp Ep!HFp ’nEzFF!
IlwtolGtzy lyo Gsp mzzGFGElC(- MpFtopF GsptE HFp ty xzopw FpwpnGtzy+ Jp lwFz
pKlxtyp Gz JslG pKGpyG plns xpGszo CEzItopF l Epwtlmwp pFGtxlGp zq GpFG
pEEzE zq Gsp ÿlw nszFpy xzopw-
MpqzEp uHxCtyr tyGz GspFp GzCtnF+ Jp ËFG pKCwzEp ty xzEp opGltw Gsp
ylGHEp zq GpFG pEEzE lyo Gsp mtlF8IlEtlynp GElopzΓ-
fi-“ jsp MtlF8alEtlynp OpnzxCzFtGtzy

LF ty NslCGpE =+ tq Jp lFFHxp GslG d ˆ q ’c( ) ε JspEp P’ε( ˆ $ lyo
alE’ε( ˆ σε= + Jp nly opEtIp ly pKCEpFFtzy qzE Gsp pKCpnGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE
zq l EprEpFFtzy ¨G q—’c( lG ly tyCHG CztyG c ˆ K$ + HFtyr FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF9
PEE’K$ ( ˆ P”’d } q—’K$ ((= Kc ˆ K$ fl

ˆ σ = ) ”Pq—’K$ ( } q ’K$ (fl= ) P”q—’K$ ( } Pq—’K$ (fl=
ε
ˆ σε= ) MtlF= ’q—’K$ (( ) alE’q—’K$ ((
ˆ TEEpoHntmwp PEEzE ) MtlF= ) alEtlynp, ’fi-–(
jsp ËFG GpEx tF Gsp IlEtlynp zq Gsp GlErpG lEzHyo tGF GEHp xply q ’K$ (+ lyo
nlyyzG mp lIztopo yz xlGGpE szJ Jpww Jp pFGtxlGp q ’K$ (+ HywpFF σε= ˆ $-
jsp Fpnzyo GpEx tF Gsp FDHlEpo mtlF+ Gsp lxzHyG mA Jstns Gsp lIpElrp zq
zHE pFGtxlGp otΓpEF qEzx Gsp GEHp xply: Gsp wlFG GpEx tF Gsp IlEtlynp: Gsp
pKCpnGpo FDHlEpo opItlGtzy zq q—’K$ ( lEzHyo tGF xply- jACtnlwwA Gsp xzEp
nzxCwpK Jp xlvp Gsp xzopw q—+ Gsp wzJpE Gsp ’FDHlEpo( mtlF mHG Gsp strspE
Gsp IlEtlynp-
QzE Gsp v!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE EprEpFFtzy ¨G+ GspFp pKCEpFFtzyF slIp Gsp Ftx!
Cwp qzEx
PEE’K$ ( ˆ P”’d } q—v ’K$ ((= Kc ˆ K$ fl

C v
D=
%∑ σ=
=
ˆ σε ) q ’K$ ( } q ’KWℓ( ( ) ε , ’fi-%$(
v v
ℓˆ0
SpEp Jp lFFHxp qzE FtxCwtntGA GslG GEltytyr tyCHGF Kt lEp ¨Kpo+ lyo Gsp Ely!
ozxypFF lEtFpF qEzx Gsp At - jsp yHxmpE zq yptrsmzEF v tF tyIpEFpwA EpwlGpo
Gz Gsp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA- QzE Fxlww v+ Gsp pFGtxlGp q—v ’K( nly CzGpyGtlwwA
lolCG tGFpwq mpGGpE Gz Gsp HyopEwAtyr q ’K(- LF Jp tynEplFp v+ Gsp mtlF1Gsp
FDHlEpo otΓpEpynp mpGJppy q ’K$ ( lyo Gsp lIpElrp zq q ’K( lG Gsp v!yplEpFG
yptrsmzEF1Jtww GACtnlwwA tynEplFp+ Jstwp Gsp IlEtlynp opnEplFpF-
QzE l wtyplE xzopw ¨G q—C ’K( ˆ Kj β+
— JspEp Gsp ClElxpGpE IpnGzE β JtGs
C nzxCzypyGF tF ¨G mA wplFG FDHlEpF+ Jp slIp
PEE’K$ ( ˆ P”’d } q—C ’K$ ((= Kc ˆ K$ fl

==? fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
ˆ σε= ) ”q ’K$ ( } Pq—C ’K$ (fl= ) KKs’K$ (KK= σε= , ’fi-%%(
SpEp s’K$ ( ˆ c’cj c(}0 K$ + Gsp Y !IpnGzE zq wtyplE JptrsGF GslG CEzoHnp
Gsp ¨G q—C ’K$ ( ˆ K$ j ’cj c(}0 cj A+ lyo spynp alE”q—C ’K$ (fl ˆ KKs’K$ (KK= σε= -
bstwp GstF IlEtlynp nslyrpF JtGs K$ + tGF lIpElrp ’JtGs K$ Glvpy Gz mp plns
zq Gsp FlxCwp IlwHpF Kt ( tF ’C.Y (σε= + lyo spynp
Y Y
% ∑ % ∑ C
PEE’Kt ( ˆ σε= ) ”q ’Kt ( } Pq—’Kt (fl= ) σε= W ’fi-%=(
Y tˆ0 Y tˆ0 Y
Gsp ty,FlxCwp pEEzE- SpEp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA tF otEpnGwA EpwlGpo Gz Gsp yHx!
mpE zq ClElxpGpEF C-
jsp GpFG pEEzE PEE’K$ ( qzE l Etorp EprEpFFtzy ¨G q—α ’K$ ( tF topyGtnlw ty
qzEx Gz ’fi-%%(+ pKnpCG Gsp wtyplE JptrsGF ty Gsp IlEtlynp GpEx lEp otΓpEpyG9
s’K$ ( ˆ c’cj c ) αT(j K$ - jsp mtlF GpEx Jtww lwFz mp otΓpEpyG-
QzE l wtyplE xzopw qlxtwA FHns lF Etorp EprEpFFtzy+ Jp nly mEplv ozJy
Gsp mtlF xzEp ÿpwA- pG β{ opyzGp Gsp ClElxpGpEF zq Gsp mpFG!¨GGtyr wtyplE
lCCEzKtxlGtzy Gz q 9
$ %=
β{ ˆ lEr xty P q ’c( } c j β , ’fi-%“(
β
SpEp Gsp pKCpnGlGtzy tF Glvpy JtGs EpFCpnG Gz Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp tyCHG
IlEtlmwpF c- jspy Jp nly JEtGp Gsp lIpElrp FDHlEpo mtlF lF
+ ,= 2 3= + ,=
PK$ q ’K$ ( } Pq—α ’K$ ( ˆ PK$ q ’K$ ( } Kj$ β{ ) PK$ Kj$ β{ } PKj$ β—α
ˆ LIp”Xzopw MtlFfl= ) LIp”PFGtxlGtzy MtlFfl=

’fi-%?(
jsp ËFG GpEx zy Gsp EtrsG!slyo Ftop tF Gsp lIpElrp FDHlEpo xzopw mtlF+ Gsp
pEEzE mpGJppy Gsp mpFG!¨GGtyr wtyplE lCCEzKtxlGtzy lyo Gsp GEHp qHynGtzy-
jsp Fpnzyo GpEx tF Gsp lIpElrp FDHlEpo pFGtxlGtzy mtlF+ Gsp pEEzE mpGJppy
Gsp lIpElrp pFGtxlGp P’Kj$ β(— lyo Gsp mpFG!¨GGtyr wtyplE lCCEzKtxlGtzy-
QzE wtyplE xzopwF ¨G mA zEotylEA wplFG FDHlEpF+ Gsp pFGtxlGtzy mtlF tF BpEz-
QzE EpFGEtnGpo ¨GF+ FHns lF Etorp EprEpFFtzy+ tG tF CzFtGtIp+ lyo Jp GElop tG zΓ
JtGs Gsp mpyp¨GF zq l EpoHnpo IlEtlynp- jsp xzopw mtlF nly zywA mp EpoHnpo
mA pywlErtyr Gsp nwlFF zq wtyplE xzopwF Gz l EtnspE nzwwpnGtzy zq xzopwF+ mA
tynwHotyr tyGpElnGtzyF lyo GElyFqzExlGtzyF zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF ty Gsp xzopw-
QtrHEp fi-= FszJF Gsp mtlF8IlEtlynp GElopzΓ FnspxlGtnlwwA- Ty Gsp nlFp
zq wtyplE xzopwF+ Gsp xzopw FClnp tF Gsp FpG zq lww wtyplE CEpotnGtzyF qEzx
C tyCHGF lyo Gsp mwlnv ozG wlmpwpo ñwzFpFG ¨G˙ tF Kj β{ - jsp mwHp!Fslopo
Eprtzy tyotnlGpF Gsp pEEzE σε JtGs Jstns Jp Fpp Gsp GEHGs ty Gsp GEltytyr
FlxCwp-
LwFz FszJy tF Gsp IlEtlynp zq Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF ¨G+ tyotnlGpo mA Gsp wlErp
ApwwzJ ntEnwp npyGpEpo lG Gsp mwlnv ozG wlmpwpo ñwzFpFG ¨G ty CzCHwlGtzy+&
fi-“ jsp MtlF8alEtlynp OpnzxCzFtGtzy ==4
Closest fit in population

Realization
Closest fit
Truth MODEL
SPACE
Model bias
Estimation Bias Shrunken fit
Estimation
Variance
RESTRICTED
MODEL SPACE
QTRIFD 6W1W inspxlGtn zq Gsp mpslItzE zq mtlF lyo IlEtlynp- jsp xzopw FClnp
tF Gsp FpG zq lww CzFFtmwp CEpotnGtzyF qEzx Gsp xzopw+ JtGs Gsp 2nwzFpFG 6G5 wlmpwpo
JtGs l mwlnv ozG- jsp xzopw mtlF qEzx Gsp GEHGs tF FszJy+ lwzyr JtGs Gsp IlEtlynp+
tyotnlGpo mA Gsp wlErp ApwwzJ ntEnwp npyGpEpo lG Gsp mwlnv ozG wlmpwpo 2nwzFpFG 6G
ty CzCHwlGtzy-5 L FsEHyvpy zE EprHwlEtBpo 6G tF lwFz FszJy+ slItyr lootGtzylw
pFGtxlGtzy mtlF+ mHG FxlwwpE CEpotnGtzy pEEzE oHp Gz tGF opnEplFpo IlEtlynp-
==[ fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
YzJ tq Jp JpEp Gz ¨G l xzopw JtGs qpJpE CEpotnGzEF+ zE EprHwlEtBp Gsp nzpq!

¨ntpyGF mA FsEtyvtyr Gspx GzJlEo BpEz ’FlA(+ Jp JzHwo rpG Gsp ˜FsEHyvpy
¨G˙ FszJy ty Gsp ¨rHEp- jstF ¨G slF ly lootGtzylw pFGtxlGtzy mtlF+ oHp Gz
Gsp qlnG GslG tG tF yzG Gsp nwzFpFG ¨G ty Gsp xzopw FClnp- Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+
tG slF FxlwwpE IlEtlynp- Tq Gsp opnEplFp ty IlEtlynp pKnppoF Gsp tynEplFp ty
’FDHlEpo( mtlF+ Gspy GstF tF JzEGsJstwp-
fi-“-0 PKlxCwp9 MtlF8alEtlynp jElopz:

QtrHEp fi-“ FszJF Gsp mtlF8IlEtlynp GElopzΓ qzE GJz FtxHwlGpo pKlxCwpF-
jspEp lEp ]$ zmFpEIlGtzyF lyo =$ CEpotnGzEF+ HytqzExwA otFGEtmHGpo ty Gsp
sACpEnHmp ”$W %fl=$ - jsp FtGHlGtzyF lEp lF qzwwzJF9
pqG ClypwF9 d tF $ tq c0 ≤ %.= lyo % tq c0 / %.=+ lyo Jp lCCwA v!yplEpFG

yptrsmzEF-
(0$
htrsG ClypwF9 d tF % tq Hˆ0 cH tF rEplGpE Gsly 4 lyo $ zGspEJtFp+ lyo Jp
HFp mpFG FHmFpG wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zq FtBp C-
jsp GzC EzJ tF EprEpFFtzy JtGs FDHlEpo pEEzE wzFF: Gsp mzGGzx EzJ tF nwlFFt!
¨nlGtzy JtGs $8% wzFF- jsp ¨rHEpF FszJ Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE ’Epo(+ FDHlEpo
mtlF ’rEppy( lyo IlEtlynp ’mwHp(+ lww nzxCHGpo qzE l wlErp GpFG FlxCwp-
Ty Gsp EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpxF+ mtlF lyo IlEtlynp loo Gz CEzoHnp Gsp CEpotn!
Gtzy pEEzE nHEIpF+ JtGs xtytxl lG lmzHG v ˆ 4 qzE v!yplEpFG yptrsmzEF+ lyo
C ≥ %$ qzE Gsp wtyplE xzopw- QzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy wzFF ’mzGGzx ¨rHEpF(+ Fzxp
tyGpEpFGtyr Cspyzxpyl nly mp Fppy- jsp mtlF lyo IlEtlynp nHEIpF lEp Gsp
Flxp lF ty Gsp GzC ¨rHEpF+ lyo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE yzJ EpqpEF Gz xtFnwlFFt¨!
nlGtzy ElGp- bp Fpp GslG CEpotnGtzy pEEzE tF yz wzyrpE Gsp FHx zq FDHlEpo
mtlF lyo IlEtlynp- QzE Gsp v!yplEpFG yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨pE+ CEpotnGtzy pEEzE
opnEplFpF zE FGlAF Gsp Flxp lF Gsp yHxmpE zq yptrsmzEF tF tynEplFpo Gz =$+
opFCtGp Gsp qlnG GslG Gsp FDHlEpo mtlF tF EtFtyr- QzE Gsp wtyplE xzopw nwlFFt!
¨pE Gsp xtytxHx znnHEF qzE C ≥ %$ lF ty EprEpFFtzy+ mHG Gsp txCEzIpxpyG
zIpE Gsp C ˆ % xzopw tF xzEp oElxlGtn- bp Fpp GslG mtlF lyo IlEtlynp Fppx
Gz tyGpElnG ty opGpExtytyr CEpotnGtzy pEEzE-
bsA ozpF GstF slCCpy¯ jspEp tF l FtxCwp pKCwlylGtzy qzE Gsp ËFG Csp!
yzxpyzy- iHCCzFp lG l rtIpy tyCHG CztyG+ Gsp GEHp CEzmlmtwtGA zq nwlFF % tF
$,– Jstwp Gsp pKCpnGpo IlwHp zq zHE pFGtxlGp tF $,[- jspy Gsp FDHlEpo mtlF1
’$,[ } $,–(= 1tF nzyFtopElmwp+ mHG Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE tF BpEz Ftynp Jp xlvp
Gsp nzEEpnG opntFtzy- Ty zGspE JzEoF+ pFGtxlGtzy pEEzEF GslG wplIp HF zy Gsp
EtrsG Ftop zq Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEA ozy&G sHEG- PKpEntFp fi-= opxzyFGElGpF
GstF Cspyzxpyzy lylwAGtnlwwA+ lyo lwFz FszJF Gsp tyGpElnGtzy pΓpnG mpGJppy
mtlF lyo IlEtlynp-
jsp zIpElww CztyG tF GslG Gsp mtlF8IlEtlynp GElopzΓ mpslIpF otΓpEpyGwA
qzE $8% wzFF Gsly tG ozpF qzE FDHlEpo pEEzE wzFF- jstF ty GHEy xplyF GslG
Gsp mpFG nsztnpF zq GHytyr ClElxpGpEF xlA otΓpE FHmFGlyGtlwwA ty Gsp GJz
fi-“ jsp MtlF8alEtlynp OpnzxCzFtGtzy ==fi
k−NN − Regression Linear Model − Regression

0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
50 40 30 20 10 0 5 10 15 20
Number of Neighbors k Subset Size p
k−NN − Classification Linear Model − Classification

0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
50 40 30 20 10 0 5 10 15 20
Number of Neighbors k Subset Size p
QTRIFD 6W2W PKCpnGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE ’zElyrp(+ FDHlEpo mtlF ’rEppy( lyo IlEt,
lynp ’mwHp( qzE l FtxHwlGpo pKlxCwp- jsp GzC EzJ tF EprEpFFtzy JtGs FDHlEpo pEEzE
wzFF‘ Gsp mzGGzx EzJ tF nwlFFt6nlGtzy JtGs /8% wzFF- jsp xzopwF lEp v,yplEpFG
yptrsmzEF ’wpqG( lyo mpFG FHmFpG EprEpFFtzy zq FtBp C ’EtrsG(- jsp IlEtlynp lyo mtlF
nHEIpF lEp Gsp Flxp ty EprEpFFtzy lyo nwlFFt6nlGtzy+ mHG Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE nHEIp
tF ot;pEpyG-
==] fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
FpGGtyrF- Zyp FszHwo mlFp Gsp nsztnp zq GHytyr ClElxpGpE zy ly pFGtxlGp zq

CEpotnGtzy pEEzE+ lF opFnEtmpo ty Gsp qzwwzJtyr FpnGtzyF-
fi-? ZCGtxtFx zq Gsp jEltytyr PEEzE hlGp

OtFnHFFtzyF zq pEEzE ElGp pFGtxlGtzy nly mp nzyqHFtyr+ mpnlHFp Jp slIp
Gz xlvp nwplE Jstns DHlyGtGtpF lEp ¨Kpo lyo Jstns lEp Elyozx0 - MpqzEp
Jp nzyGtyHp+ Jp yppo l qpJ opÿtGtzyF+ pwlmzElGtyr zy Gsp xlGpEtlw zq ipn!
Gtzy fi-=- RtIpy l GEltytyr FpG H ˆ ·’K0 W A0 (W ’K= W A= (W , , , ’KY W AY (• Gsp rpy!
pElwtBlGtzy pEEzE zq l xzopw q— tF
PEEH ˆ Pc $ Wd $ ” ’d $ W q—’c $ ((KH fl: ’fi-%4(
YzGp GslG Gsp GEltytyr FpG H tF ¨Kpo ty pKCEpFFtzy ’fi-%4(- jsp CztyG ’c $ W d $ (
tF l ypJ GpFG olGl CztyG+ oElJy qEzx Q + Gsp uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp olGl-
LIpElrtyr zIpE GEltytyr FpGF H AtpwoF Gsp pKCpnGpo pEEzE
PEE ˆ PH Pc $ Wd $ ” ’d $ W q—’c $ ((KH flW ’fi-%[(
Jstns tF xzEp lxpylmwp Gz FGlGtFGtnlw lylwAFtF- LF xpyGtzypo plEwtpE+ tG
GHEyF zHG GslG xzFG xpGszoF pΓpnGtIpwA pFGtxlGp Gsp pKCpnGpo pEEzE ElGspE
Gsly PH : Fpp ipnGtzy fi-%= qzE xzEp zy GstF CztyG-
YzJ GACtnlwwA+ Gsp GEltytyr pEEzE
Y
% ∑
pEE ˆ ’At W q—’Kt (( ’fi-%fi(
Y tˆ0
Jtww mp wpFF Gsly Gsp GEHp pEEzE PEEH + mpnlHFp Gsp Flxp olGl tF mptyr HFpo
Gz ¨G Gsp xpGszo lyo lFFpFF tGF pEEzE ’Fpp PKpEntFp =-–(- L ¨GGtyr xpGszo
GACtnlwwA lolCGF Gz Gsp GEltytyr olGl+ lyo spynp Gsp lCClEpyG zE GEltytyr
pEEzE pEE Jtww mp ly zIpEwA zCGtxtFGtn pFGtxlGp zq Gsp rpypElwtBlGtzy pEEzE
PEEH -
flEG zq Gsp otFnEpClynA tF oHp Gz JspEp Gsp pIlwHlGtzy CztyGF znnHE- jsp
DHlyGtGA PEEH nly mp GszHrsG zq lF pKGEl,FlxCwp pEEzE+ Ftynp Gsp GpFG tyCHG
IpnGzEF ozy&G yppo Gz nztyntop JtGs Gsp GEltytyr tyCHG IpnGzEF- jsp ylGHEp
zq Gsp zCGtxtFx ty pEE tF plFtpFG Gz HyopEFGlyo Jspy Jp qznHF tyFGplo zy
Gsp ty,FlxCwp pEEzE
Y
% ∑
PEEty ˆ Pd $ ” ’dt$ W q—’Kt ((KH fl ’fi-%](
Y tˆ0
jsp d $ yzGlGtzy tyotnlGpF GslG Jp zmFpEIp Y ypJ EpFCzyFp IlwHpF lG

plns zq Gsp GEltytyr CztyGF Kt W t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y - bp opÿp Gsp zCGtxtFx lF
0 Tyoppo) ty Gsp ËFG potGtzy zq zHE mzzv) GstF FpnGtzy JlFyWG FHffntpyGwA nwplE-
fi-? ZCGtxtFx zq Gsp jEltytyr PEEzE hlGp ==–
Gsp otΓpEpynp mpGJppy PEEty lyo Gsp GEltytyr pEEzE pEE9
zC ≡ PEEty } pEE, ’fi-%–(
jstF tF GACtnlwwA CzFtGtIp Ftynp pEE tF HFHlwwA mtlFpo ozJyJlEo lF ly pFGtxlGp

zq CEpotnGtzy pEEzE- QtylwwA+ Gsp lIpElrp zCGtxtFx tF Gsp pKCpnGlGtzy zq Gsp
zCGtxtFx zIpE GEltytyr FpGF
ω ≡ PA ’zC(, ’fi-=$(
SpEp Gsp CEpotnGzEF ty Gsp GEltytyr FpG lEp ¨Kpo+ lyo Gsp pKCpnGlGtzy tF
zIpE Gsp GEltytyr FpG zHGnzxp IlwHpF: spynp Jp slIp HFpo Gsp yzGlGtzy PA
tyFGplo zq PH - bp nly HFHlwwA pFGtxlGp zywA Gsp pKCpnGpo pEEzE ω ElGspE
Gsly zC+ ty Gsp Flxp JlA GslG Jp nly pFGtxlGp Gsp pKCpnGpo pEEzE PEE
ElGspE Gsly Gsp nzyotGtzylw pEEzE PEEH -
QzE FDHlEpo pEEzE+ $8%+ lyo zGspE wzFF qHynGtzyF+ zyp nly FszJ DHtGp
rpypElwwA GslG
Y
= ∑
ωˆ NzI’—
At W At (W ’fi-=%(
Y tˆ0
JspEp NzI tyotnlGpF nzIlEtlynp- jsHF Gsp lxzHyG mA Jstns pEE HyopEpFGt!
xlGpF Gsp GEHp pEEzE opCpyoF zy szJ FGEzyrwA At lΓpnGF tGF zJy CEpotnGtzy-
jsp slEopE Jp ¨G Gsp olGl+ Gsp rEplGpE NzI’— At W At ( Jtww mp+ GspEpmA tynEplF!
tyr Gsp zCGtxtFx- PKpEntFp fi-? CEzIpF GstF EpFHwG qzE FDHlEpo pEEzE wzFF JspEp
A—t tF Gsp ¨GGpo IlwHp qEzx Gsp EprEpFFtzy- QzE $8% wzFF+ A—t ∈ ·$W %• tF Gsp
nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lG Kt + lyo qzE pyGEzCA wzFF+ A—t ∈ ”$W %fl tF Gsp ¨GGpo CEzmlmtwtGA
zq nwlFF % lG Kt -
Ty FHxxlEA+ Jp slIp Gsp txCzEGlyG EpwlGtzy
Y
= ∑
PA ’PEEty ( ˆ PA ’pEE( ) NzI’—
At W At (, ’fi-==(
Y tˆ0
jstF pKCEpFFtzy FtxCwt¨pF tq A—t tF zmGltypo mA l wtyplE ¨G JtGs o tyCHGF

zE mlFtF qHynGtzyF- QzE pKlxCwp+
Y
∑
At W At ( ˆ oσε=
NzI’— ’fi-=“(
tˆ0
qzE Gsp lootGtIp pEEzE xzopw d ˆ q ’c( ) ε+ lyo Fz
o =
PA ’PEEty ( ˆ PA ’pEE( ) = ± σ , ’fi-=?(
Y ε
PKCEpFFtzy ’fi-=“( tF Gsp mlFtF qzE Gsp opÿtGtzy zq Gsp p;pnGtIp yHxmpE zq
ClElxpGpEF otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy fi-[ jsp zCGtxtFx tynEplFpF wtyplEwA JtGs
=“/ fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
Gsp yHxmpE o zq tyCHGF zE mlFtF qHynGtzyF Jp HFp+ mHG opnEplFpF lF Gsp

GEltytyr FlxCwp FtBp tynEplFpF- apEFtzyF zq ’fi-=?( szwo lCCEzKtxlGpwA qzE
zGspE pEEzE xzopwF+ FHns lF mtylEA olGl lyo pyGEzCA wzFF-
Ly zmItzHF JlA Gz pFGtxlGp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE tF Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp zCGtxtFx
lyo Gspy loo tG Gz Gsp GEltytyr pEEzE pEE- jsp xpGszoF opFnEtmpo ty Gsp
ypKG FpnGtzy1NN + LTN+ MTN lyo zGspEF1JzEv ty GstF JlA+ qzE l FCpntlw
nwlFF zq pFGtxlGpF GslG lEp wtyplE ty GsptE ClElxpGpEF-
Ty nzyGElFG+ nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy lyo mzzGFGElC xpGszoF+ opFnEtmpo wlGpE ty
Gsp nslCGpE+ lEp otEpnG pFGtxlGpF zq Gsp pKGEl!FlxCwp pEEzE PEE- jspFp rpy!
pElw GzzwF nly mp HFpo JtGs lyA wzFF qHynGtzy+ lyo JtGs yzywtyplE+ lolCGtIp
¨GGtyr GpnsytDHpF-
Ty!FlxCwp pEEzE tF yzG HFHlwwA zq otEpnG tyGpEpFG Ftynp qHGHEp IlwHpF zq Gsp
qplGHEpF lEp yzG wtvpwA Gz nztyntop JtGs GsptE GEltytyr FpG IlwHpF- MHG qzE
nzxClEtFzy mpGJppy xzopwF+ ty!FlxCwp pEEzE tF nzyIpytpyG lyo zqGpy wploF
Gz pΓpnGtIp xzopw FpwpnGtzy- jsp EplFzy tF GslG Gsp EpwlGtIp ’ElGspE Gsly
lmFzwHGp( FtBp zq Gsp pEEzE tF JslG xlGGpEF-
fi-4 PFGtxlGpF zq Ty,ilxCwp fEpotnGtzy PEEzE

jsp rpypElw qzEx zq Gsp ty!FlxCwp pFGtxlGpF tF
̂ty ˆ pEE ) ω
PEE —W ’fi-=4(
JspEp ω
— tF ly pFGtxlGp zq Gsp lIpElrp zCGtxtFx-
kFtyr pKCEpFFtzy ’fi-=?(+ lCCwtnlmwp Jspy o ClElxpGpEF lEp ¨G HyopE
FDHlEpo pEEzE wzFF+ wploF Gz l IpEFtzy zq Gsp Fz!nlwwpo NN FGlGtFGtn+
o =
NN ˆ pEE ) = ± σ—ε , ’fi-=[(
Y
SpEp σ—ε = tF ly pFGtxlGp zq Gsp yztFp IlEtlynp+ zmGltypo qEzx Gsp xply!
FDHlEpo pEEzE zq l wzJ!mtlF xzopw- kFtyr GstF nEtGpEtzy Jp louHFG Gsp GEltytyr
pEEzE mA l qlnGzE CEzCzEGtzylw Gz Gsp yHxmpE zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF HFpo-
jsp Lvltvp tyqzExlGtzy nEtGpEtzy tF l FtxtwlE mHG xzEp rpypElwwA lCCwt!
nlmwp pFGtxlGp zq PEEty Jspy l wzr!wtvpwtszzo wzFF qHynGtzy tF HFpo- TG EpwtpF
zy l EpwlGtzyFstC FtxtwlE Gz ’fi-=?( GslG szwoF lFAxCGzGtnlwwA lF Y → ∞9
= o
}= ± P”wzr fEθ1’d (fl ≈ } ± P”wzrwtvfl ) = ± , ’fi-=fi(
Y Y
SpEp fEθ ’d ( tF l qlxtwA zq opyFtGtpF qzE d ’nzyGltytyr Gsp ˜GEHp˙ opyFtGA(+

θ— tF Gsp xlKtxHx!wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp zq θ+ lyo ˜wzrwtv˙ tF Gsp xlKtxtBpo
wzr!wtvpwtszzo9
∑Y
wzrwtv ˆ wzr fEθ1’At (, ’fi-=](
tˆ0
fi-4 PFGtxlGpF zq Ty,ilxCwp fEpotnGtzy PEEzE =“%
QzE pKlxCwp+ qzE Gsp wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw+ HFtyr Gsp mtyzxtlw wzr!
wtvpwtszzo+ Jp slIp
= o
LTN ˆ } ± wzrwtv ) = ± , ’fi-=–(
Y Y
QzE Gsp RlHFFtly xzopw ’JtGs IlEtlynp σε= ˆ σ—ε = lFFHxpo vyzJy(+ Gsp LTN
FGlGtFGtn tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz NN + lyo Fz Jp EpqpE Gz Gspx nzwwpnGtIpwA lF LTN-
jz HFp LTN qzE xzopw FpwpnGtzy+ Jp FtxCwA nszzFp Gsp xzopw rtItyr Fxlww!
pFG LTN zIpE Gsp FpG zq xzopwF nzyFtopEpo- QzE yzywtyplE lyo zGspE nzxCwpK
xzopwF+ Jp yppo Gz EpCwlnp o mA Fzxp xplFHEp zq xzopw nzxCwpKtGA- bp
otFnHFF GstF ty ipnGtzy fi-[-
RtIpy l FpG zq xzopwF qα ’K( tyopKpo mA l GHytyr ClElxpGpE α+ opyzGp
mA pEE’α( lyo o’α( Gsp GEltytyr pEEzE lyo yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF qzE plns
xzopw- jspy qzE GstF FpG zq xzopwF Jp opÿp
o’α( =
LTN’α( ˆ pEE’α( ) = ± σ—ε , ’fi-“$(
Y
jsp qHynGtzy LTN’α( CEzItopF ly pFGtxlGp zq Gsp GpFG pEEzE nHEIp+ lyo Jp
ÿo Gsp GHytyr ClElxpGpE α — GslG xtytxtBpF tG- ZHE ÿlw nszFpy xzopw
tF qα1 ’K(- YzGp GslG tq Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF lEp nszFpy lolCGtIpwA+ ’fi-=“( yz
wzyrpE szwoF- QzE pKlxCwp+ tq Jp slIp l GzGlw zq C tyCHGF+ lyo Jp nszzFp
Gsp mpFG!¨GGtyr wtyplE xzopw JtGs o ı C tyCHGF+ Gsp zCGtxtFx Jtww pKnppo
’=o.Y (σε= - fHG lyzGspE JlA+ mA nszzFtyr Gsp mpFG!¨GGtyr xzopw JtGs o
tyCHGF+ Gsp p;pnGtIp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF ¨G tF xzEp Gsly o-
QtrHEp fi-? FszJF LTN ty lnGtzy qzE Gsp Cszypxp EpnzrytGtzy pKlxCwp
zq ipnGtzy 4-=-“ zy Clrp %?]- jsp tyCHG IpnGzE tF Gsp wzr!CpEtzozrElx zq
Gsp FCzvpy IzJpw+ DHlyGtBpo Gz =4[ HytqzExwA FClnpo qEpDHpyntpF- L wty!
plE wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw (X tF HFpo Gz CEpotnG Gsp Cszypxp nwlFF+ JtGs
nzpffntpyG qHynGtzy β’q ( ˆ xˆ0 sx ’q (θx + ly pKClyFtzy ty X FCwtyp ml!
FtF qHynGtzyF- QzE lyA rtIpy X + l mlFtF zq ylGHElw nHmtn FCwtypF tF HFpo
qzE Gsp sx + JtGs vyzGF nszFpy HytqzExwA zIpE Gsp Elyrp zq qEpDHpyntpF ’Fz
o’α( ˆ o’X ( ˆ X (- kFtyr LTN Gz FpwpnG Gsp yHxmpE zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF Jtww
lCCEzKtxlGpwA xtytxtBp PEE’X ( qzE mzGs pyGEzCA lyo $8% wzFF-
jsp FtxCwp qzExHwl
Y
∑
’=.Y ( At W At ( ˆ ’=o.Y (σε=
NzI’—
tˆ0
szwoF pKlnGwA qzE wtyplE xzopwF JtGs lootGtIp pEEzEF lyo FDHlEpo pEEzE wzFF+
lyo lCCEzKtxlGpwA qzE wtyplE xzopwF lyo wzr!wtvpwtszzoF- Ty ClEGtnHwlE+ Gsp
qzExHwl ozpF yzG szwo ty rpypElw qzE $8% wzFF ’PqEzy+ %–][(+ lwGszHrs xlyA
lHGszEF ypIpEGspwpFF HFp tG ty GslG nzyGpKG ’EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp fi-?(-
=“= fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
Log-likelihood Loss 0-1 Loss
0.35
O O
2.5 Train
O
Test O
0.30
AIC
2.0
Misclassification Error
0.25
O O
Log-likelihood
O
O
O
1.5
O O
O
0.20
O O
O O
O O
O O
O O O
1.0
0.15
O O O
O O
O O
O
O O
O O
O O
O O
O
0.10
0.5
O O
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 2 4 8 16 32 64 128
Number of Basis Functions Number of Basis Functions
QTRIFD 6W3W LTN HFpo qzE xzopw FpwpnGtzy qzE Gsp Cszypxp Epnzryt,
Gtzy pKlxCwp zq ipnGtzy 4-=-“- jsp wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyG qHynGtzy
β’q ( ˆ X
C
xˆ0 sx ’q (θx tF xzopwpo lF ly pKClyFtzy ty X FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF-
Ty Gsp wpqG Clypw Jp Fpp Gsp LTN FGlGtFGtn HFpo Gz pFGtxlGp PEEn HFtyr wzr,wtvpwt,
szzo wzFF- TynwHopo tF ly pFGtxlGp zq PEE mlFpo zy ly tyopCpyopyG GpFG FlxCwp- TG
ozpF Jpww pKnpCG qzE Gsp pKGEpxpwA zIpE,ClElxpGEtBpo nlFp ’X ˆ =4[ ClElxpGpEF
qzE Y ˆ %/// zmFpEIlGtzyF(- Ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw Gsp Flxp tF ozyp qzE /8% wzFF-
LwGszHrs Gsp LTN qzExHwl ozpF yzG FGEtnGwA lCCwA spEp+ tG ozpF l EplFzylmwp uzm ty
GstF nlFp-
fi-” jsp P:pnGtIp dHxmpE zq flElxpGpEF

jsp nzynpCG zq ˜yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF˙ nly mp rpypElwtBpo+ pFCpntlwwA Gz
xzopwF JspEp EprHwlEtBlGtzy tF HFpo ty Gsp ¨GGtyr- iHCCzFp Jp FGlnv Gsp
zHGnzxpF A0 W A= W , , , W AY tyGz l IpnGzE A+ lyo FtxtwlEwA qzE Gsp CEpotnGtzyF
— - jspy l wtyplE ¨GGtyr xpGszo tF zyp qzE Jstns Jp nly JEtGp
A
— ˆ iAW
A ’fi-“%(
JspEp i tF ly Y × Y xlGEtK opCpyotyr zy Gsp tyCHG IpnGzEF Kt mHG yzG zy
Gsp At - typlE ¨GGtyr xpGszoF tynwHop wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zy Gsp zEtrtylw qpl!
GHEpF zE zy l opEtIpo mlFtF FpG+ lyo FxzzGstyr xpGszoF GslG HFp DHloElGtn
FsEtyvlrp+ FHns lF Etorp EprEpFFtzy lyo nHmtn FxzzGstyr FCwtypF- jspy Gsp
p;pnGtIp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF tF opÿpo lF
oq’i( ˆ GElnp’i(W ’fi-“=(
Gsp FHx zq Gsp otlrzylw pwpxpyGF zq i ’lwFz vyzJy lF Gsp p;pnGtIp oprEppF,
zq,qEppozx(- YzGp GslG tq i tF ly zEGszrzylw!CEzupnGtzy xlGEtK zyGz l mlFtF
fi-fi jsp MlApFtly LCCEzlns lyo MTN =““
FpG FClyypo mA X qplGHEpF+ Gspy GElnp’i( ˆ X - TG GHEyF zHG GslG GElnp’i( tF

pKlnGwA Gsp nzEEpnG DHlyGtGA Gz EpCwlnp o lF Gsp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF ty Gsp
NN FGlGtFGtn ’fi-=[(- Tq A lEtFpF qEzx ly lootGtIp!pEEzE xzopw d ˆ q ’c( ) ε
(Y
JtGs alE’ε( ˆ σε= + Gspy zyp nly FszJ GslG tˆ0 NzI’— At W At ( ˆ GElnp’i(σε= +
Jstns xzGtIlGpF Gsp xzEp rpypElw opÿtGtzy
(Y
NzI’—At W At (
oq’—A( ˆ tˆ0 = ’fi-““(
σε
’PKpEntFpF fi-? lyo fi-4(- ipnGtzy 4-?-% zy Clrp %4“ rtIpF Fzxp xzEp tyGHtGtzy
qzE Gsp opÿtGtzy oq ˆ GElnp’i( ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq FxzzGstyr FCwtypF-
QzE xzopwF wtvp ypHElw ypGJzEvF+ ty Jstns Jp xtytxtBp ( ly= pEEzE qHynGtzy
h’J( JtGs JptrsG opnlA CpylwGA ’EprHwlEtBlGtzy( α x Jx + Gsp pΓpnGtIp
yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF slF Gsp qzEx
X
∑ θx
oq’α( ˆ W ’fi-“?(
θ
xˆ0 x
)α
JspEp Gsp θx lEp Gsp ptrpyIlwHpF zq Gsp SpFFtly xlGEtK ∂ = h’J(.∂J∂Jj -

PKCEpFFtzy ’fi-“?( qzwwzJF qEzx ’fi-“=( tq Jp xlvp l DHloElGtn lCCEzKtxlGtzy
Gz Gsp pEEzE qHynGtzy lG Gsp FzwHGtzy ’MtFszC+ %––4(-
fi-fi jsp MlApFtly LCCEzlns lyo MTN

jsp MlApFtly tyqzExlGtzy nEtGpEtzy ’MTN(+ wtvp LTN+ tF lCCwtnlmwp ty FpGGtyrF
JspEp Gsp ¨GGtyr tF nlEEtpo zHG mA xlKtxtBlGtzy zq l wzr!wtvpwtszzo- jsp
rpypEtn qzEx zq MTN tF
MTN ˆ }= ± wzrwtv ) ’wzr Y ( ± o, ’fi-“4(
jsp MTN FGlGtFGtn ’GtxpF %#=( tF lwFz vyzJy lF Gsp insJlEB nEtGpEtzy ’insJlEB+
%–fi](-
kyopE Gsp RlHFFtly xzopw+ lFFHxtyr Gsp IlEtlynp σε= tF vyzJy+ }=±wzrwtv
(
pDHlwF ’HC Gz l nzyFGlyG( t ’At } q—’Kt ((= .σε= + Jstns tF Y ±pEE.σε= qzE FDHlEpo
pEEzE wzFF- Spynp Jp nly JEtGp
Y+ o ,
MTN ˆ = pEE ) ’wzr Y ( ± σε= , ’fi-“[(
σε Y
jspEpqzEp MTN tF CEzCzEGtzylw Gz LTN ’NN (+ JtGs Gsp qlnGzE = EpCwlnpo

mA wzr Y - LFFHxtyr Y / p= ≈ fi,?+ MTN GpyoF Gz CpylwtBp nzxCwpK xzopwF
xzEp splItwA+ rtItyr CEpqpEpynp Gz FtxCwpE xzopwF ty FpwpnGtzy- LF JtGs LTN+
σε= tF GACtnlwwA pFGtxlGpo mA Gsp xply FDHlEpo pEEzE zq l wzJ!mtlF xzopw-
QzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpxF+ HFp zq Gsp xHwGtyzxtlw wzr!wtvpwtszzo wploF Gz l
FtxtwlE EpwlGtzyFstC JtGs Gsp LTN+ HFtyr nEzFF!pyGEzCA lF Gsp pEEzE xplFHEp-
=“? fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
YzGp szJpIpE GslG Gsp xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE xplFHEp ozpF yzG lEtFp ty Gsp
MTN nzyGpKG+ Ftynp tG ozpF yzG nzEEpFCzyo Gz Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo zq Gsp olGl
HyopE lyA CEzmlmtwtGA xzopw-
OpFCtGp tGF FtxtwlEtGA JtGs LTN+ MTN tF xzGtIlGpo ty DHtGp l otΓpEpyG
JlA- TG lEtFpF ty Gsp MlApFtly lCCEzlns Gz xzopw FpwpnGtzy+ Jstns Jp yzJ
opFnEtmp-
iHCCzFp Jp slIp l FpG zq nlyotolGp xzopwF Xx W x ˆ %W , , , W X lyo
nzEEpFCzyotyr xzopw ClElxpGpEF θx + lyo Jp JtFs Gz nszzFp l mpFG xzopw
qEzx lxzyr Gspx- LFFHxtyr Jp slIp l CEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy fE’θx KXx ( qzE
Gsp ClElxpGpEF zq plns xzopw Xx + Gsp CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGA zq l rtIpy
xzopw tF
fE’Xx Ke( ∝ fE’Xx ( ± fE’eKXx ( ’fi-“fi(

∫
∝ fE’Xx ( ± fE’eKθx W Xx (fE’θx KXx (oθx W
Y
JspEp e EpCEpFpyGF Gsp GEltytyr olGl ·Kt W At •0 - jz nzxClEp GJz xzopwF
Xx lyo Xℓ + Jp qzEx Gsp CzFGpEtzE zooF
fE’Xx Ke( fE’Xx ( fE’eKXx (

ˆ ± , ’fi-“](
fE’Xℓ Ke( fE’Xℓ ( fE’eKXℓ (
Tq Gsp zooF lEp rEplGpE Gsly zyp Jp nszzFp xzopw x+ zGspEJtFp Jp nszzFp
xzopw ℓ- jsp EtrsGxzFG DHlyGtGA
fE’eKXx (
MQ’e( ˆ ’fi-“–(
fE’eKXℓ (
tF nlwwpo Gsp MlApF qlnGzE+ Gsp nzyGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp olGl GzJlEo Gsp CzFGpEtzE
zooF-
jACtnlwwA Jp lFFHxp GslG Gsp CEtzE zIpE xzopwF tF HytqzEx+ Fz GslG
fE’Xx ( tF nzyFGlyG- bp yppo Fzxp JlA zq lCCEzKtxlGtyr fE’eKXx (-
L Fz!nlwwpo lCwlnp lCCEzKtxlGtzy Gz Gsp tyGprElw qzwwzJpo mA Fzxp zGspE
FtxCwt¨nlGtzyF ’htCwpA+ %––[+ Clrp [?( Gz ’fi-“fi( rtIpF
ox
wzr fE’eKXx ( ˆ wzr fE’eKθ—x W Xx ( } ± wzr Y ) Z’%(, ’fi-?$(
=
SpEp θ—x tF l xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp lyo ox tF Gsp yHxmpE zq qEpp

ClElxpGpEF ty xzopw Xx - Tq Jp opÿp zHE wzFF qHynGtzy Gz mp
}= wzr fE’eKθ—x W Xx (W
GstF tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp MTN nEtGpEtzy zq pDHlGtzy ’fi-“4(-

jspEpqzEp+ nszzFtyr Gsp xzopw JtGs xtytxHx MTN tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz nszzF!
tyr Gsp xzopw JtGs wlErpFG ’lCCEzKtxlGp( CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGA- MHG GstF
qElxpJzEv rtIpF HF xzEp- Tq Jp nzxCHGp Gsp MTN nEtGpEtzy qzE l FpG zq X +
fi-] ctytxHx OpFnEtCGtzy pyrGs =“4
xzopwF+ rtItyr MTNx + x ˆ %W =W , , , W X + Gspy Jp nly pFGtxlGp Gsp CzFGpEtzE

CEzmlmtwtGA zq plns xzopw Xx lF
0
p} = ·MTNK
(X 0
, ’fi-?%(
ℓˆ0 p} = ·MTNℓ
jsHF Jp nly pFGtxlGp yzG zywA Gsp mpFG xzopw+ mHG lwFz lFFpFF Gsp EpwlGtIp
xpEtGF zq Gsp xzopwF nzyFtopEpo-
QzE xzopw FpwpnGtzy CHECzFpF+ GspEp tF yz nwplE nsztnp mpGJppy LTN lyo
MTN- MTN tF lFAxCGzGtnlwwA nzyFtFGpyG lF l FpwpnGtzy nEtGpEtzy- bslG GstF
xplyF tF GslG rtIpy l qlxtwA zq xzopwF+ tynwHotyr Gsp GEHp xzopw+ Gsp CEzm!
lmtwtGA GslG MTN Jtww FpwpnG Gsp nzEEpnG xzopw lCCEzlnspF zyp lF Gsp FlxCwp
FtBp Y → ∞- jstF tF yzG Gsp nlFp qzE LTN+ Jstns GpyoF Gz nszzFp xzopwF
Jstns lEp Gzz nzxCwpK lF Y → ∞- Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ qzE ÿtGp FlxCwpF+
MTN zqGpy nszzFpF xzopwF GslG lEp Gzz FtxCwp+ mpnlHFp zq tGF splIA CpylwGA
zy nzxCwpKtGA-
fi-7 ctytxHx OpFnEtCGtzy pyrGs

jsp xtytxHx opFnEtCGtzy wpyrGs ’XO ( lCCEzlns rtIpF l FpwpnGtzy nEt!
GpEtzy qzExlwwA topyGtnlw Gz Gsp MTN lCCEzlns+ mHG tF xzGtIlGpo qEzx ly
zCGtxlw nzotyr ItpJCztyG- bp ËFG EpItpJ Gsp GspzEA zq nzotyr qzE olGl
nzxCEpFFtzy+ lyo Gspy lCCwA tG Gz xzopw FpwpnGtzy-
bp Gstyv zq zHE olGHx B lF l xpFFlrp GslG Jp JlyG Gz pynzop lyo
Fpyo Gz Fzxpzyp pwFp ’Gsp ˜EpnptIpE˙(- bp Gstyv zq zHE xzopw lF l JlA zq
pynzotyr Gsp olGHx+ lyo Jtww nszzFp Gsp xzFG ClEFtxzytzHF xzopw+ GslG tF
Gsp FszEGpFG nzop+ qzE Gsp GElyFxtFFtzy-
iHCCzFp ËFG GslG Gsp CzFFtmwp xpFFlrpF Jp xtrsG JlyG Gz GElyFxtG lEp
B0 W B= W , , , W Bx - ZHE nzop HFpF l ÿtGp lwCslmpG zq wpyrGs L9 qzE pKlxCwp+ Jp
xtrsG HFp l mtylEA nzop ·$W %• zq wpyrGs L ˆ =- SpEp tF ly pKlxCwp JtGs
qzHE CzFFtmwp xpFFlrpF lyo l mtylEA nzotyr9
XpFFlrp B0 B= B˜ B3
’fi-?=(
Nzop $ %$ %%$ %%%
jstF nzop tF vyzJy lF ly tyFGlyGlypzHF CEp¨K nzop9 yz nzop tF Gsp CEp!
¨K zq lyA zGspE+ lyo Gsp EpnptIpE ’Jsz vyzJF lww zq Gsp CzFFtmwp nzopF(+
vyzJF pKlnGwA Jspy Gsp xpFFlrp slF mppy nzxCwpGpwA FpyG- bp EpFGEtnG zHE
otFnHFFtzy Gz FHns tyFGlyGlypzHF CEp¨K nzopF-
Zyp nzHwo HFp Gsp nzotyr ty ’fi-?=( zE Jp nzHwo CpExHGp Gsp nzopF+ qzE
pKlxCwp HFp nzopF %%$W %$W %%%W $ qzE B0 W B= W B˜ W B3 - SzJ oz Jp opntop Jstns
Gz HFp¯ TG opCpyoF zy szJ zqGpy Jp Jtww mp Fpyotyr plns zq Gsp xpFFlrpF-
Tq+ qzE pKlxCwp+ Jp Jtww mp Fpyotyr B0 xzFG zqGpy+ tG xlvpF FpyFp Gz HFp Gsp
FszEGpFG nzop $ qzE B0 - kFtyr GstF vtyo zq FGElGprA1FszEGpE nzopF qzE xzEp
qEpDHpyG xpFFlrpF1Gsp lIpElrp xpFFlrp wpyrGs Jtww mp FszEGpE-
=“[ fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
Ty rpypElw+ tq xpFFlrpF lEp FpyG JtGs CEzmlmtwtGtpF fE’Bt (W t ˆ %W =W , , , W ?+

l qlxzHF GspzEpx oHp Gz islyyzy FlAF Jp FszHwo HFp nzop wpyrGsF wt ˆ
} wzr= fE’Bt ( lyo Gsp lIpElrp xpFFlrp wpyrGs FlGtF¨pF
∑
P’wpyrGs( ≥ } fE’Bt ( wzr= ’fE’Bt ((, ’fi-?“(
jsp EtrsG!slyo Ftop lmzIp tF lwFz nlwwpo Gsp pyGEzCA zq Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy
fE’Bt (- jsp typDHlwtGA tF ly pDHlwtGA Jspy Gsp CEzmlmtwtGtpF FlGtFqA Ct ˆ
L}wt - Ty zHE pKlxCwp+ tq fE’Bt ( ˆ %.=W %.?W %.]W %.]W EpFCpnGtIpwA+ Gspy Gsp
nzotyr FszJy ty ’fi-?=( tF zCGtxlw lyo lnstpIpF Gsp pyGEzCA wzJpE mzHyo-
Ty rpypElw Gsp wzJpE mzHyo nlyyzG mp lnstpIpo+ mHG CEznpoHEpF wtvp Gsp
SHΓxlyy nzotyr Fnspxp nly rpG nwzFp Gz Gsp mzHyo- B YzGp GslG JtGs ly
tyÿtGp FpG zq xpFFlrpF+ Gsp pyGEzCA tF EpCwlnpo mA } fE’B( wzr= fE’B(oB-
QEzx GstF EpFHwG Jp rwply Gsp qzwwzJtyr9
jz GElyFxtG l Elyozx IlEtlmwp B slItyr CEzmlmtwtGA opyFtGA qHyn,
Gtzy fE’B() Jp EpDHtEp lmzHG } wzr= fE’B( mtGF zq tyqzExlGtzy-
bp spynpqzEGs nslyrp yzGlGtzy qEzx wzr= fE’B( Gz wzr fE’B( ˆ wzrp fE’B(:
GstF tF qzE nzyIpytpynp+ lyo uHFG tyGEzoHnpF ly HytxCzEGlyG xHwGtCwtnlGtIp
nzyFGlyG-
YzJ Jp lCCwA GstF EpFHwG Gz Gsp CEzmwpx zq xzopw FpwpnGtzy- bp slIp
l xzopw X JtGs ClElxpGpEF θ+ lyo olGl e ˆ ’cW A( nzyFtFGtyr zq mzGs
tyCHGF lyo zHGCHGF- pG Gsp ’nzyotGtzylw( CEzmlmtwtGA zq Gsp zHGCHGF HyopE
Gsp xzopw mp fE’AKθW XW c(+ lFFHxp Gsp EpnptIpE vyzJF lww zq Gsp tyCHGF+
lyo Jp JtFs Gz GElyFxtG Gsp zHGCHGF- jspy Gsp xpFFlrp wpyrGs EpDHtEpo Gz
GElyFxtG Gsp zHGCHGF tF
wpyrGs ˆ } wzr fE’AKθW XW c( } wzr fE’θKX (W ’fi-??(
Gsp wzr!CEzmlmtwtGA zq Gsp GlErpG IlwHpF rtIpy Gsp tyCHGF- jsp Fpnzyo GpEx
tF Gsp lIpElrp nzop wpyrGs qzE GElyFxtGGtyr Gsp xzopw ClElxpGpEF θ+ Jstwp
Gsp ËFG GpEx tF Gsp lIpElrp nzop wpyrGs qzE GElyFxtGGtyr Gsp otFnEpClynA
mpGJppy Gsp xzopw lyo lnGHlw GlErpG IlwHpF- QzE pKlxCwp FHCCzFp Jp slIp
l Ftyrwp GlErpG A JtGs A ∼ Y ’θW σ = (+ ClElxpGpE θ ∼ Y ’$W %( lyo yz tyCHG
’qzE FtxCwtntGA(- jspy Gsp xpFFlrp wpyrGs tF
’A } θ(= θ=
wpyrGs ˆ nzyFGlyG ) wzr σ ) ) , ’fi-?4(
σ= =
YzGp GslG Gsp FxlwwpE σ tF+ Gsp FszEGpE zy lIpElrp tF Gsp xpFFlrp wpyrGs+
Ftynp A tF xzEp nzynpyGElGpo lEzHyo θ-
jsp XO CEtyntCwp FlAF GslG Jp FszHwo nszzFp Gsp xzopw GslG xtyt!
xtBpF ’fi-??(- bp EpnzrytBp ’fi-??( lF Gsp ’yprlGtIp( wzr!CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmH!
Gtzy+ lyo spynp xtytxtBtyr opFnEtCGtzy wpyrGs tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz xlKtxtBtyr
CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGA- Spynp Gsp MTN nEtGpEtzy+ opEtIpo lF lCCEzKtxlGtzy Gz
wzr!CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGA+ nly lwFz mp ItpJpo lF l opItnp qzE ’lCCEzKtxlGp(
xzopw nsztnp mA xtytxHx opFnEtCGtzy wpyrGs-
fi-– alCytv8NspEIzypyvtF OtxpyFtzy =“fi
1.0
Fty’4/ ± K(
0.0
-1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
QTRIFD 6W4W jsp Fzwto nHEIp tF Gsp qHynGtzy Fty’4/K( qzE K ∈ ”/W %7- jsp rEppy
’Fzwto( lyo mwHp ’szwwzJ( CztyGF twwHFGElGp szJ Gsp lFFzntlGpo tyotnlGzE qHynGtzy
T’Fty’αK( / /( nly FslGGpE ’FpClElGp( ly lEmtGElEtwA wlErp yHxmpE zq CztyGF mA
nszzFtyr ly lCCEzCEtlGpwA strs qEpDHpynA α-
YzGp GslG Jp slIp tryzEpo Gsp CEpntFtzy JtGs Jstns l Elyozx IlEtlmwp
B tF nzopo- btGs l ÿtGp nzop wpyrGs Jp nlyyzG nzop l nzyGtyHzHF IlEtlmwp
pKlnGwA- SzJpIpE+ tq Jp nzop B JtGsty l GzwpElynp δB+ Gsp xpFFlrp wpyrGs
yppopo tF Gsp wzr zq Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA ty Gsp tyGpEIlw ”BW B)δBfl Jstns tF Jpww lC!
CEzKtxlGpo mA δBfE’B( tq δB tF Fxlww- itynp wzr δBfE’B( ˆ wzr δB ) wzr fE’B(+
GstF xplyF Jp nly uHFG tryzEp Gsp nzyFGlyG wzr δB lyo HFp wzr fE’B( lF zHE
xplFHEp zq xpFFlrp wpyrGs+ lF Jp oto lmzIp-
jsp CEpnpotyr ItpJ zq XO qzE xzopw FpwpnGtzy FlAF GslG Jp FszHwo
nszzFp Gsp xzopw JtGs strspFG CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGA- SzJpIpE+ xlyA MlApF!
tlyF JzHwo tyFGplo oz tyqpEpynp mA FlxCwtyr qEzx Gsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy-
fi-– alCytv8NspEIzypyvtF OtxpyFtzy

L otffnHwGA ty HFtyr pFGtxlGpF zq ty!FlxCwp pEEzE tF Gsp yppo Gz FCpntqA Gsp
yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF ’zE Gsp nzxCwpKtGA( o HFpo ty Gsp ¨G- LwGszHrs Gsp
pΓpnGtIp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF tyGEzoHnpo ty ipnGtzy fi-[ tF HFpqHw qzE Fzxp
yzywtyplE xzopwF+ tG tF yzG qHwwA rpypElw- jsp alCytv8NspEIzypyvtF ’aN(
GspzEA CEzItopF FHns l rpypElw xplFHEp zq nzxCwpKtGA+ lyo rtIpF lFFzntlGpo
mzHyoF zy Gsp zCGtxtFx- SpEp Jp rtIp l mEtpq EpItpJ zq GstF GspzEA-
iHCCzFp Jp slIp l nwlFF zq qHynGtzyF ·q ’KW α(• tyopKpo mA l ClElxpGpE
IpnGzE α+ JtGs K ∈ ThC - LFFHxp qzE yzJ GslG q tF ly tyotnlGzE qHynGtzy+
GslG tF+ GlvpF Gsp IlwHpF $ zE %- Tq α ˆ ’α$ W α0 ( lyo q tF Gsp wtyplE tyot!
nlGzE qHynGtzy T’α$ ) α0j K / $(+ Gspy tG FppxF EplFzylmwp Gz FlA GslG Gsp
nzxCwpKtGA zq Gsp nwlFF q tF Gsp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF C ) %- MHG JslG
lmzHG q ’KW α( ˆ T’Fty α ± K( JspEp α tF lyA Eplw yHxmpE lyo K ∈ Th¯ jsp
qHynGtzy Fty’4$ ± K( tF FszJy ty QtrHEp fi-4- jstF tF l IpEA JtrrwA qHynGtzy
GslG rpGF pIpy EzHrspE lF Gsp qEpDHpynA α tynEplFpF+ mHG tG slF zywA zyp
ClElxpGpE9 opFCtGp GstF+ tG ozpFy&G Fppx EplFzylmwp Gz nzynwHop GslG tG slF
wpFF nzxCwpKtGA Gsly Gsp wtyplE tyotnlGzE qHynGtzy T’α$ ) α0 K( ty C ˆ %
otxpyFtzy-
=“] fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
QTRIFD 6W5W jsp 6EFG GsEpp ClypwF FszJ GslG Gsp nwlFF zq wtypF ty Gsp Cwlyp
nly FslGGpE GsEpp CztyGF- jsp wlFG Clypw FszJF GslG GstF nwlFF nlyyzG FslGGpE qzHE
CztyGF+ lF yz wtyp Jtww CHG Gsp szwwzJ CztyGF zy zyp Ftop lyo Gsp Fzwto CztyGF zy
Gsp zGspE- Spynp Gsp aN otxpyFtzy zq Gsp nwlFF zq FGEltrsG wtypF ty Gsp Cwlyp tF
GsEpp- YzGp GslG l nwlFF zq yzywtyplE nHEIpF nzHwo FslGGpE qzHE CztyGF+ lyo spynp
slF aN otxpyFtzy rEplGpE Gsly GsEpp-
jsp alCytv8NspEIzypyvtF otxpyFtzy tF l JlA zq xplFHEtyr Gsp nzx!

CwpKtGA zq l nwlFF zq qHynGtzyF mA lFFpFFtyr szJ JtrrwA tGF xpxmpEF nly
mp-
jsp aN otxpyFtzy zq Gsp nwlFF ·q ’KW α(• tF opÿpo Gz mp Gsp

wlErpFG yHxmpE zq CztyGF &ty Fzxp nzy¨rHElGtzy( GslG nly mp
FslGGpEpo mA xpxmpEF zq ·q ’KW α(•-
L FpG zq CztyGF tF Flto Gz mp FslGGpEpo mA l nwlFF zq qHynGtzyF tq+ yz xlGGpE

szJ Jp lFFtry l mtylEA wlmpw Gz plns CztyG+ l xpxmpE zq Gsp nwlFF nly
CpEqpnGwA FpClElGp Gspx-
QtrHEp fi-[ FszJF GslG Gsp aN otxpyFtzy zq wtyplE tyotnlGzE qHynGtzyF
ty Gsp Cwlyp tF “ mHG yzG ?+ Ftynp yz qzHE CztyGF nly mp FslGGpEpo mA l
FpG zq wtypF- Ty rpypElw+ l wtyplE tyotnlGzE qHynGtzy ty C otxpyFtzyF slF aN
otxpyFtzy C ) %+ Jstns tF lwFz Gsp yHxmpE zq qEpp ClElxpGpEF- Zy Gsp zGspE
slyo+ tG nly mp FszJy GslG Gsp qlxtwA Fty’αK( slF tyÿtGp aN otxpyFtzy+
lF QtrHEp fi-4 FHrrpFGF- MA lCCEzCEtlGp nsztnp zq α+ lyA FpG zq CztyGF nly mp
FslGGpEpo mA GstF nwlFF ’PKpEntFp fi-](-
iz qlE Jp slIp otFnHFFpo Gsp aN otxpyFtzy zywA zq tyotnlGzE qHynGtzyF+
mHG GstF nly mp pKGpyopo Gz Eplw!IlwHpo qHynGtzyF- jsp aN otxpyFtzy zq l
nwlFF zq Eplw!IlwHpo qHynGtzyF ·r’KW α(• tF opÿpo Gz mp Gsp aN otxpyFtzy
zq Gsp tyotnlGzE nwlFF ·T’r’KW α( } β / $(•+ JspEp β GlvpF IlwHpF zIpE Gsp
Elyrp zq r-
Zyp nly HFp Gsp aN otxpyFtzy ty nzyFGEHnGtyr ly pFGtxlGp zq ’pKGEl!
FlxCwp( CEpotnGtzy pEEzE: otΓpEpyG GACpF zq EpFHwGF lEp lIltwlmwp- kFtyr Gsp
nzynpCG zq aN otxpyFtzy+ zyp nly CEzIp EpFHwGF lmzHG Gsp zCGtxtFx zq Gsp
GEltytyr pEEzE Jspy HFtyr l nwlFF zq qHynGtzyF- Ly pKlxCwp zq FHns l EpFHwG tF
Gsp qzwwzJtyr- Tq Jp ¨G Y GEltytyr CztyGF HFtyr l nwlFF zq qHynGtzyF ·q ’KW α(•
slItyr aN otxpyFtzy s+ Gspy JtGs CEzmlmtwtGA lG wplFG % } η zIpE GEltytyr
fi-– alCytv8NspEIzypyvtF OtxpyFtzy =“–
FpGF9
√
ǫ& ? ± pEE '
PEEH ≤ pEE ) %) %) ’mtylEA nwlFFt¨nlGtzy(
= ǫ
pEE
PEEH ≤ √ ’EprEpFFtzy( ’fi-?[(
’% } n ǫ()
s”wzr ’l= Y.s( ) %fl } wzr ’η.?(
JspEp ǫ ˆ l0 W
Y
lyo $ ı l0 ≤ ?W $ ı l= ≤ =
jspFp mzHyoF szwo FtxHwGlypzHFwA qzE lww xpxmpEF q ’KW α(+ lyo lEp Glvpy
qEzx NspEvlFFvA lyo XHwtpE ’=$$fi+ ClrpF %%[8%%](- jspA Epnzxxpyo Gsp
IlwHp n ˆ %- QzE EprEpFFtzy GspA FHrrpFG l0 ˆ l= ˆ %+ lyo qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
GspA xlvp yz EpnzxxpyolGtzy+ JtGs l0 ˆ ? lyo l= ˆ = nzEEpFCzyotyr
Gz JzEFG!nlFp FnpylEtzF- jspA lwFz rtIp ly lwGpEylGtIp CElnGtnlw mzHyo qzE
EprEpFFtzy
( √ 1}0
wzr Y
PEEH ≤ pEE % } ρ } ρ wzr ρ ) ’fi-?fi(
=Y
)
s
JtGs ρ ˆ Y + Jstns tF qEpp zq GHytyr nzyFGlyGF- jsp mzHyoF FHrrpFG GslG Gsp
zCGtxtFx tynEplFpF JtGs s lyo opnEplFpF JtGs Y ty DHlwtGlGtIp lrEppxpyG
JtGs Gsp LTN nzEEpnGtzy o.Y rtIpy tF ’fi-=?(- SzJpIpE+ Gsp EpFHwGF ty ’fi-?[(
lEp FGEzyrpE9 ElGspE Gsly rtItyr Gsp pKCpnGpo zCGtxtFx qzE plns ¨Kpo qHyn!
Gtzy q ’KW α(+ GspA rtIp CEzmlmtwtFGtn HCCpE mzHyoF qzE lww qHynGtzyF q ’KW α(+
lyo spynp lwwzJ qzE FplEnstyr zIpE Gsp nwlFF-
alCytv&F FGEHnGHElw EtFv xtytxtBlGtzy ’ihX( lCCEzlns ¨GF l ypFGpo Fp!
DHpynp zq xzopwF zq tynEplFtyr aN otxpyFtzyF s0 ı s= ı ± ± ± + lyo Gspy
nszzFpF Gsp xzopw JtGs Gsp FxlwwpFG IlwHp zq Gsp HCCpE mzHyo-
bp yzGp GslG HCCpE mzHyoF wtvp Gsp zypF ty ’fi-?[( lEp zqGpy IpEA wzzFp+
mHG GslG ozpFy&G EHwp Gspx zHG lF rzzo nEtGpEtl qzE xzopw FpwpnGtzy+ JspEp
Gsp EpwlGtIp ’yzG lmFzwHGp( FtBp zq Gsp GpFG pEEzE tF txCzEGlyG- jsp xlty
oElJmlnv zq GstF lCCEzlns tF Gsp otffnHwGA ty nlwnHwlGtyr Gsp aN otxpyFtzy
zq l nwlFF zq qHynGtzyF- ZqGpy zywA l nEHop HCCpE mzHyo qzE aN otxpyFtzy
tF zmGltylmwp+ lyo GstF xlA yzG mp lopDHlGp- Ly pKlxCwp ty Jstns Gsp
FGEHnGHElw EtFv xtytxtBlGtzy CEzrElx nly mp FHnnpFFqHwwA nlEEtpo zHG tF Gsp
FHCCzEG IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE+ otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy %=-=-
fi-–-0 PKlxCwp ’NzyGtyHpo(

QtrHEp fi-fi FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF Jspy LTN+ MTN lyo ihX lEp HFpo Gz FpwpnG
Gsp xzopw FtBp qzE Gsp pKlxCwpF zq QtrHEp fi-“- QzE Gsp pKlxCwpF wlmpwpo Vdd+
Gsp xzopw tyopK α EpqpEF Gz yptrsmzEszzo FtBp+ Jstwp qzE GszFp wlmpwpo hPR α
EpqpEF Gz FHmFpG FtBp- kFtyr plns FpwpnGtzy xpGszo ’p-r-+ LTN( Jp pFGtxlGpo
Gsp mpFG xzopw α — lyo qzHyo tGF GEHp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE PEEH ’— α( zy l GpFG
FpG- QzE Gsp Flxp GEltytyr FpG Jp nzxCHGpo Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE zq Gsp mpFG
=?/ fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
AIC
100
80
% Increase Over Best
60
40
20
0
reg/KNN reg/linear class/KNN class/linear
BIC
100
80
60
40
20
0
SRM
100
80
60
40
20
0
QTRIFD 6W6W MzKCwzGF FszJ Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp EpwlGtIp pEEzE

%// × ”PEE ’α(1 } xtyα PEE ’α(7.”xlKα PEE ’α( } xtyα PEE ’α(7 zIpE Gsp qzHE
FnpylEtzF zq QtrHEp fi-“- jstF tF Gsp pEEzE ty HFtyr Gsp nszFpy xzopw EpwlGtIp Gz
Gsp mpFG xzopw- jspEp lEp %// GEltytyr FpGF plns zq FtBp ]/ EpCEpFpyGpo ty plns
mzKCwzG+ JtGs Gsp pEEzEF nzxCHGpo zy GpFG FpGF zq FtBp %/W ///-
fi-%/ NEzFF,alwtolGtzy =?%
lyo JzEFG CzFFtmwp xzopw nsztnpF9 xtyα PEEH ’α( lyo xlKα PEEH ’α(- jsp
mzKCwzGF FszJ Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp DHlyGtGA
α( } xtyα PEEH ’α(

PEEH ’—
%$$ × W
xlKα PEEH ’α( } xtyα PEEH ’α(
Jstns EpCEpFpyGF Gsp pEEzE ty HFtyr Gsp nszFpy xzopw EpwlGtIp Gz Gsp mpFG
xzopw- QzE wtyplE EprEpFFtzy Gsp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA JlF xplFHEpo mA Gsp
yHxmpE zq qplGHEpF: lF xpyGtzypo ty ipnGtzy fi-4+ GstF HyopEpFGtxlGpF Gsp
oq+ Ftynp tG ozpF yzG nslErp qzE Gsp FplEns qzE Gsp mpFG xzopw zq GslG FtBp-
jstF JlF lwFz HFpo qzE Gsp aN otxpyFtzy zq Gsp wtyplE nwlFFt¨pE- QzE v!
yplEpFG yptrsmzEF+ Jp HFpo Gsp DHlyGtGA Y.v- kyopE ly lootGtIp!pEEzE Ep!
rEpFFtzy xzopw+ GstF nly mp uHFGt¨po lF Gsp pKlnG pΓpnGtIp oprEppF zq qEpp!
ozx ’PKpEntFp fi-[(: Jp oz yzG vyzJ tq tG nzEEpFCzyoF Gz Gsp aN otxpy!
Ftzy- bp HFpo l0 ˆ l= ˆ % qzE Gsp nzyFGlyGF ty ’fi-?[(: Gsp EpFHwGF qzE ihX
nslyrpo JtGs otΓpEpyG nzyFGlyGF+ lyo GstF nsztnp rlIp Gsp xzFG qlIzElmwp Ep!
FHwGF- bp EpCplGpo Gsp ihX FpwpnGtzy HFtyr Gsp lwGpEylGtIp CElnGtnlw mzHyo
’fi-?fi(+ lyo rzG lwxzFG topyGtnlw EpFHwGF- QzE xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE Jp HFpo
σ—ε = ˆ ”Y.’Y } o(fl ± pEE’α( qzE Gsp wplFG EpFGEtnGtIp xzopw ’v ˆ 4 qzE VYY+
Ftynp v ˆ % EpFHwGF ty BpEz GEltytyr pEEzE(- jsp LTN nEtGpEtzy FppxF Gz JzEv
Jpww ty lww qzHE FnpylEtzF+ opFCtGp Gsp wlnv zq GspzEpGtnlw FHCCzEG JtGs $8%
wzFF- MTN ozpF yplEwA lF Jpww+ Jstwp Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq ihX tF xtKpo-
fi-0. NEzFF,alwtolGtzy
fEzmlmwA Gsp FtxCwpFG lyo xzFG JtopwA HFpo xpGszo qzE pFGtxlGtyr CEpotn!
Gtzy pEEzE tF nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- jstF xpGszo otEpnGwA pFGtxlGpF Gsp pKCpnGpo
pKGEl!FlxCwp pEEzE PEE ˆ P” ’dW q—’c((fl+ Gsp lIpElrp rpypElwtBlGtzy pEEzE
Jspy Gsp xpGszo q—’c( tF lCCwtpo Gz ly tyopCpyopyG GpFG FlxCwp qEzx Gsp
uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy zq c lyo d - LF xpyGtzypo plEwtpE+ Jp xtrsG szCp GslG
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy pFGtxlGpF Gsp nzyotGtzylw pEEzE+ JtGs Gsp GEltytyr FpG H
spwo ¨Kpo- MHG lF Jp Jtww Fpp ty ipnGtzy fi-%=+ nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy GACtnlwwA
pFGtxlGpF Jpww zywA Gsp pKCpnGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE-
fi-0.-0 k,Qzwo NEzFF,alwtolGtzy

ToplwwA+ tq Jp slo pyzHrs olGl+ Jp JzHwo FpG lFtop l IlwtolGtzy FpG lyo HFp
tG Gz lFFpFF Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq zHE CEpotnGtzy xzopw- itynp olGl lEp zqGpy
FnlEnp+ GstF tF HFHlwwA yzG CzFFtmwp- jz ÿpFFp Gsp CEzmwpx+ V!qzwo nEzFF!
IlwtolGtzy HFpF ClEG zq Gsp lIltwlmwp olGl Gz ¨G Gsp xzopw+ lyo l otΓpEpyG
ClEG Gz GpFG tG- bp FCwtG Gsp olGl tyGz V EzHrswA pDHlw!FtBpo ClEGF: qzE
pKlxCwp+ Jspy V ˆ 4+ Gsp FnpylEtz wzzvF wtvp GstF9
=?= fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
1 2 3 4 5
Train Train Validation Train Train
QzE Gsp vGs ClEG ’GstEo lmzIp(+ Jp ¨G Gsp xzopw Gz Gsp zGspE V } % ClEGF
zq Gsp olGl+ lyo nlwnHwlGp Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE zq Gsp ¨GGpo xzopw Jspy
CEpotnGtyr Gsp vGs ClEG zq Gsp olGl- bp oz GstF qzE v ˆ %W =W , , , W V lyo
nzxmtyp Gsp V pFGtxlGpF zq CEpotnGtzy pEEzE-
SpEp lEp xzEp opGltwF- pG κ 9 ·%W , , , W Y • 5→ ·%W , , , W V• mp ly tyopKtyr
qHynGtzy GslG tyotnlGpF Gsp ClEGtGtzy Gz Jstns zmFpEIlGtzy t tF lwwznlGpo mA
Gsp ElyozxtBlGtzy- OpyzGp mA q—}v ’K( Gsp ¨GGpo qHynGtzy+ nzxCHGpo JtGs
Gsp vGs ClEG zq Gsp olGl EpxzIpo- jspy Gsp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy pFGtxlGp zq
CEpotnGtzy pEEzE tF
Y
% ∑
Na’q—( ˆ ’At W q—}κWt( ’Kt ((, ’fi-?](
Y tˆ0
jACtnlw nsztnpF zq V lEp 4 zE %$ ’Fpp mpwzJ(- jsp nlFp V ˆ Y tF vyzJy

lF wplIp,zyp,zHG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- Ty GstF nlFp κ’t( ˆ t+ lyo qzE Gsp tGs
zmFpEIlGtzy Gsp ¨G tF nzxCHGpo HFtyr lww Gsp olGl pKnpCG Gsp tGs-
RtIpy l FpG zq xzopwF q ’KW α( tyopKpo mA l GHytyr ClElxpGpE α+ opyzGp
mA q—}v ’KW α( Gsp αGs xzopw ¨G JtGs Gsp vGs ClEG zq Gsp olGl EpxzIpo- jspy
qzE GstF FpG zq xzopwF Jp opÿp
Y
% ∑
Na’q—W α( ˆ ’At W q—}κWt( ’Kt W α((, ’fi-?–(
Y tˆ0
jsp qHynGtzy Na’q—W α( CEzItopF ly pFGtxlGp zq Gsp GpFG pEEzE nHEIp+ lyo Jp
ÿo Gsp GHytyr ClElxpGpE α — GslG xtytxtBpF tG- ZHE ÿlw nszFpy xzopw tF
q ’KW α(+
— Jstns Jp Gspy ¨G Gz lww Gsp olGl-
TG tF tyGpEpFGtyr Gz JzyopE lmzHG JslG DHlyGtGA V!qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy
pFGtxlGpF- btGs V ˆ 4 zE %$+ Jp xtrsG rHpFF GslG tG pFGtxlGpF Gsp pK!
CpnGpo pEEzE PEE+ Ftynp Gsp GEltytyr FpGF ty plns qzwo lEp DHtGp otΓpEpyG
qEzx Gsp zEtrtylw GEltytyr FpG- Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ tq V ˆ Y Jp xtrsG
rHpFF GslG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy pFGtxlGpF Gsp nzyotGtzylw pEEzE PEEH - TG GHEyF
zHG GslG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy zywA pFGtxlGpF pΓpnGtIpwA Gsp lIpElrp pEEzE PEE+
lF otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy fi-%=-
bslG IlwHp FszHwo Jp nszzFp qzE V¯ btGs V ˆ Y + Gsp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy
pFGtxlGzE tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA HymtlFpo qzE Gsp GEHp ’pKCpnGpo( CEpotnGtzy pE!
EzE+ mHG nly slIp strs IlEtlynp mpnlHFp Gsp Y ˜GEltytyr FpGF˙ lEp Fz FtxtwlE
Gz zyp lyzGspE- jsp nzxCHGlGtzylw mHEopy tF lwFz nzyFtopElmwp+ EpDHtEtyr
Y lCCwtnlGtzyF zq Gsp wplEytyr xpGszo- Ty npEGlty FCpntlw CEzmwpxF+ GstF
nzxCHGlGtzy nly mp ozyp DHtnvwA1Fpp PKpEntFpF fi-“ lyo 4-%“-
fi-%/ NEzFF,alwtolGtzy =?“
0.8
0.6
1-Err
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 50 100 150 200

Size of Training Set
QTRIFD 6W7W SACzGspGtnlw wplEytyr nHEIp qzE l nwlFFt6pE zy l rtIpy GlFv9 l

CwzG zq % } PEE IpEFHF Gsp FtBp zq Gsp GEltytyr FpG Y - btGs l olGlFpG zq =//
zmFpEIlGtzyF+ 4,qzwo nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy JzHwo HFp GEltytyr FpGF zq FtBp %[/+ Jstns
JzHwo mpslIp xHns wtvp Gsp qHww FpG- SzJpIpE+ JtGs l olGlFpG zq 4/ zmFpEIlGtzyF
6Ipqzwo nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy JzHwo HFp GEltytyr FpGF zq FtBp ?/+ lyo GstF JzHwo EpFHwG
ty l nzyFtopElmwp zIpEpFGtxlGp zq CEpotnGtzy pEEzE-
Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ JtGs V ˆ 4 FlA+ nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy slF wzJpE IlEtlynp-

MHG mtlF nzHwo mp l CEzmwpx+ opCpyotyr zy szJ Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp
wplEytyr xpGszo IlEtpF JtGs Gsp FtBp zq Gsp GEltytyr FpG- QtrHEp fi-] FszJF
l sACzGspGtnlw ˜wplEytyr nHEIp˙ qzE l nwlFFt¨pE zy l rtIpy GlFv+ l CwzG zq
% } PEE IpEFHF Gsp FtBp zq Gsp GEltytyr FpG Y - jsp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp
nwlFFt¨pE txCEzIpF lF Gsp GEltytyr FpG FtBp tynEplFpF Gz %$$ zmFpEIlGtzyF:
tynEplFtyr Gsp yHxmpE qHEGspE Gz =$$ mEtyrF zywA l Fxlww mpyp¨G- Tq zHE
GEltytyr FpG slo =$$ zmFpEIlGtzyF+ Ïpqzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy JzHwo pFGtxlGp
Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq zHE nwlFFt¨pE zIpE GEltytyr FpGF zq FtBp %[$+ Jstns qEzx
QtrHEp fi-] tF ItEGHlwwA Gsp Flxp lF Gsp CpEqzExlynp qzE GEltytyr FpG FtBp
=$$- jsHF nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy JzHwo yzG FHΓpE qEzx xHns mtlF- SzJpIpE tq Gsp
GEltytyr FpG slo 4$ zmFpEIlGtzyF+ Ïpqzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy JzHwo pFGtxlGp
Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq zHE nwlFFt¨pE zIpE GEltytyr FpGF zq FtBp ?$+ lyo qEzx Gsp
¨rHEp GslG JzHwo mp ly HyopEpFGtxlGp zq % } PEE- Spynp lF ly pFGtxlGp zq
PEE+ nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy JzHwo mp mtlFpo HCJlEo-
jz FHxxlEtBp+ tq Gsp wplEytyr nHEIp slF l nzyFtopElmwp FwzCp lG Gsp rtIpy
GEltytyr FpG FtBp+ Ïp! zE Gpyqzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Jtww zIpEpFGtxlGp Gsp GEHp
CEpotnGtzy pEEzE- bspGspE GstF mtlF tF l oElJmlnv ty CElnGtnp opCpyoF zy
Gsp zmupnGtIp- Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ wplIp!zyp!zHG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy slF wzJ
mtlF mHG nly slIp strs IlEtlynp- ZIpElww+ Ïp! zE Gpyqzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy
lEp Epnzxxpyopo lF l rzzo nzxCEzxtFp9 Fpp MEptxly lyo iCpnGzE ’%––=(
lyo VzslIt ’%––4(-
QtrHEp fi-– FszJF Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE lyo Gpyqzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy nHEIp
pFGtxlGpo qEzx l Ftyrwp GEltytyr FpG+ qEzx Gsp FnpylEtz ty Gsp mzGGzx EtrsG
Clypw zq QtrHEp fi-“- jstF tF l GJz!nwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpx+ HFtyr l wty!
=?? fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
0.6
•
0.5
Misclassification Error •
0.4 • • •
•
• •
0.3
•
• • •
• •
0.2
•
• •
• • • •• • • • • •• •• •• ••
0.1
• •
0.0
5 10 15 20
Subset Size p
QTRIFD 6W8W fEpotnGtzy pEEzE ’zElyrp( lyo Gpyqzwo nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy nHEIp

’mwHp( pFGtxlGpo qEzx l Ftyrwp GEltytyr FpG+ qEzx Gsp FnpylEtz ty Gsp mzGGzx EtrsG
Clypw zq QtrHEp fi-“-
plE xzopw JtGs mpFG FHmFpGF EprEpFFtzy zq FHmFpG FtBp C- iGlyolEo pEEzE mlEF
lEp FszJy+ Jstns lEp Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzEF zq Gsp tyotItoHlw xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy
pEEzE ElGpF qzE plns zq Gsp Gpy ClEGF- MzGs nHEIpF slIp xtytxl lG C ˆ %$+
lwGszHrs Gsp Na nHEIp tF ElGspE 7lG mpAzyo %$- ZqGpy l ˜zyp!FGlyolEo
pEEzE˙ EHwp tF HFpo JtGs nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy+ ty Jstns Jp nszzFp Gsp xzFG ClE!
FtxzytzHF xzopw JszFp pEEzE tF yz xzEp Gsly zyp FGlyolEo pEEzE lmzIp
Gsp pEEzE zq Gsp mpFG xzopw- SpEp tG wzzvF wtvp l xzopw JtGs lmzHG C ˆ –
CEpotnGzEF JzHwo mp nszFpy+ Jstwp Gsp GEHp xzopw HFpF C ˆ %$-
RpypElwtBpo nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy CEzItopF l nzyIpytpyG lCCEzKtxlGtzy Gz wplIp!
zyp zHG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy+ qzE wtyplE ¨GGtyr HyopE FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF- LF op!
ÿpo ty ipnGtzy fi-[+ l wtyplE ¨GGtyr xpGszo tF zyp qzE Jstns Jp nly JEtGp
— ˆ iA,
A ’fi-4$(
YzJ qzE xlyA wtyplE ¨GGtyr xpGszoF+
% ∑+ At } q—’Kt ( ,=
Y Y
% ∑
”At } q—}t ’Kt (fl= ˆ W ’fi-4%(
Y tˆ0 Y tˆ0 % } itt
JspEp itt tF Gsp tGs otlrzylw pwpxpyG zq i ’Fpp PKpEntFp fi-“(- jsp RNa
lCCEzKtxlGtzy tF
Y
C D=
% ∑ A t } —’Kt (
q
RNa’q—( ˆ , ’fi-4=(
Y tˆ0 % } GElnp’i(.Y
fi-%/ NEzFF,alwtolGtzy =?4
jsp DHlyGtGA GElnp’i( tF Gsp pΓpnGtIp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF+ lF opÿpo ty

ipnGtzy fi-[-
RNa nly slIp l nzxCHGlGtzylw loIlyGlrp ty Fzxp FpGGtyrF+ JspEp Gsp
GElnp zq i nly mp nzxCHGpo xzEp plFtwA Gsly Gsp tyotItoHlw pwpxpyGF itt -
Ty FxzzGstyr CEzmwpxF+ RNa nly lwFz lwwpItlGp Gsp GpyopynA zq nEzFF!
IlwtolGtzy Gz HyopEFxzzGs- jsp FtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy RNa lyo LTN nly mp
Fppy qEzx Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtzy %.’% } K(= ≈ % ) =K ’PKpEntFp fi-fi(-
fi-0.-1 jsp bEzyr lyo htrsG blA Gz Oz NEzFF,IlwtolGtzy

NzyFtopE l nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpx JtGs l wlErp yHxmpE zq CEpotnGzEF+ lF xlA
lEtFp+ qzE pKlxCwp+ ty rpyzxtn zE CEzGpzxtn lCCwtnlGtzyF- L GACtnlw FGElGprA
qzE lylwAFtF xtrsG mp lF qzwwzJF9
%- inEppy Gsp CEpotnGzEF9 ÿo l FHmFpG zq ˜rzzo˙ CEpotnGzEF GslG FszJ
qltEwA FGEzyr ’HytIlEtlGp( nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF
=- kFtyr uHFG GstF FHmFpG zq CEpotnGzEF+ mHtwo l xHwGtIlEtlGp nwlFFt¨pE-
“- kFp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp HyvyzJy GHytyr ClElxpGpEF lyo
Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE zq Gsp ÿlw xzopw-
TF GstF l nzEEpnG lCCwtnlGtzy zq nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy¯ NzyFtopE l FnpylEtz JtGs
Y ˆ 4$ FlxCwpF ty GJz pDHlw!FtBpo nwlFFpF+ lyo C ˆ 4$$$ DHlyGtGlGtIp
CEpotnGzEF ’FGlyolEo RlHFFtly( GslG lEp tyopCpyopyG zq Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF-
jsp GEHp ’GpFG( pEEzE ElGp zq lyA nwlFFt¨pE tF 4$0- bp nlEEtpo zHG Gsp lmzIp
EpntCp+ nszzFtyr ty FGpC ’%( Gsp %$$ CEpotnGzEF slItyr strspFG nzEEpwlGtzy
JtGs Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF+ lyo Gspy HFtyr l %!yplEpFG yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨pE+ mlFpo
zy uHFG GspFp %$$ CEpotnGzEF+ ty FGpC ’=(- ZIpE 4$ FtxHwlGtzyF qEzx GstF
FpGGtyr+ Gsp lIpElrp Na pEEzE ElGp JlF “0- jstF tF qlE wzJpE Gsly Gsp GEHp
pEEzE ElGp zq 4$0-
bslG slF slCCpypo¯ jsp CEzmwpx tF GslG Gsp CEpotnGzEF slIp ly HyqltE
loIlyGlrp+ lF GspA JpEp nszFpy ty FGpC ’%( zy Gsp mlFtF zq lww zq Gsp FlxCwpF-
plItyr FlxCwpF zHG lqGpE Gsp IlEtlmwpF slIp mppy FpwpnGpo ozpF yzG nzE!
EpnGwA xtxtn Gsp lCCwtnlGtzy zq Gsp nwlFFt¨pE Gz l nzxCwpGpwA tyopCpyopyG
GpFG FpG+ Ftynp GspFp CEpotnGzEF ˜slIp lwEploA Fppy˙ Gsp wpqG zHG FlxCwpF-
QtrHEp fi-%$ ’GzC Clypw( twwHFGElGpF Gsp CEzmwpx- bp FpwpnGpo Gsp %$$ CEp!
otnGzEF slItyr wlErpFG nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF zIpE lww 4$ FlxCwpF-
jspy Jp nszFp l Elyozx FpG zq %$ FlxCwpF+ lF Jp JzHwo oz ty Ïp!qzwo nEzFF!
IlwtolGtzy+ lyo nzxCHGpo Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF zq Gsp CEp!FpwpnGpo %$$ CEpotnGzEF
JtGs Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF zIpE uHFG GspFp %$ FlxCwpF ’GzC Clypw(- bp Fpp GslG
Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF lIpElrp lmzHG $-=]+ ElGspE Gsly $+ lF zyp xtrsG pKCpnG-
SpEp tF Gsp nzEEpnG JlA Gz nlEEA zHG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy ty GstF pKlxCwp9
%- OtItop Gsp FlxCwpF tyGz V nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy qzwoF ’rEzHCF( lG Elyozx-
=- QzE plns qzwo v ˆ %W =W , , , W V
=?[ fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
Wrong way
30
Frequency
20
10
0
−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Correlations of Selected Predictors with Outcome
Right way
30
Frequency
20
10
0
−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Correlations of Selected Predictors with Outcome
QTRIFD 6W0.W NEzFF,IlwtolGtzy Gsp JEzyr lyo EtrsG JlA9 stFGzrElxF FszJF Gsp
nzEEpwlGtzy zq nwlFF wlmpwF+ ty %/ ElyozxwA nszFpy FlxCwpF+ JtGs Gsp %// CEpotn,
GzEF nszFpy HFtyr Gsp tynzEEpnG ’HCCpE Epo( lyo nzEEpnG ’wzJpE rEppy( IpEFtzyF zq
nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy-
’l( Qtyo l FHmFpG zq ˜rzzo˙ CEpotnGzEF GslG FszJ qltEwA FGEzyr ’Hyt!
IlEtlGp( nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF+ HFtyr lww zq Gsp FlxCwpF
pKnpCG GszFp ty qzwo v-
’m( kFtyr uHFG GstF FHmFpG zq CEpotnGzEF+ mHtwo l xHwGtIlEtlGp nwlFFt!
¨pE+ HFtyr lww zq Gsp FlxCwpF pKnpCG GszFp ty qzwo v-
’n( kFp Gsp nwlFFt¨pE Gz CEpotnG Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF qzE Gsp FlxCwpF ty
qzwo v-
jsp pEEzE pFGtxlGpF qEzx FGpC =’n( lEp Gspy lnnHxHwlGpo zIpE lww V qzwoF+ Gz
CEzoHnp Gsp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy pFGtxlGp zq CEpotnGtzy pEEzE- jsp wzJpE Clypw
zq QtrHEp fi-%$ FszJF Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF zq nwlFF wlmpwF JtGs Gsp %$$ CEpotnGzEF
nszFpy ty FGpC =’l( zq Gsp nzEEpnG CEznpoHEp+ zIpE Gsp FlxCwpF ty l GACtnlw
qzwo v- bp Fpp GslG GspA lIpElrp lmzHG BpEz+ lF GspA FszHwo-
Ty rpypElw+ JtGs l xHwGtFGpC xzopwtyr CEznpoHEp+ nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy xHFG
mp lCCwtpo Gz Gsp pyGtEp FpDHpynp zq xzopwtyr FGpCF- Ty ClEGtnHwlE+ FlxCwpF
xHFG mp ˜wpqG zHG˙ mpqzEp lyA FpwpnGtzy zE ¨wGpEtyr FGpCF lEp lCCwtpo- jspEp
tF zyp DHlwt¨nlGtzy9 tytGtlw HyFHCpEItFpo FnEppytyr FGpCF nly mp ozyp mp!
qzEp FlxCwpF lEp wpqG zHG- QzE pKlxCwp+ Jp nzHwo FpwpnG Gsp %$$$ CEpotnGzEF
fi-%/ NEzFF,alwtolGtzy =?fi
JtGs strspFG IlEtlynp lnEzFF lww 4$ FlxCwpF+ mpqzEp FGlEGtyr nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy-

itynp GstF ¨wGpEtyr ozpF yzG tyIzwIp Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF+ tG ozpF yzG rtIp Gsp
CEpotnGzEF ly HyqltE loIlyGlrp-
bstwp GstF CztyG xlA Fppx zmItzHF Gz Gsp EplopE+ Jp slIp Fppy GstF
mwHyopE nzxxtGGpo xlyA GtxpF ty CHmwtFspo ClCpEF ty GzC Elyv uzHEylwF-
btGs Gsp wlErp yHxmpEF zq CEpotnGzEF GslG lEp Fz nzxxzy ty rpyzxtn lyo
zGspE lEplF+ Gsp CzGpyGtlw nzyFpDHpynpF zq GstF pEEzE slIp lwFz tynEplFpo
oElxlGtnlwwA: Fpp LxmEztFp lyo Xn lnswly ’=$$=( qzE l opGltwpo otFnHFFtzy
zq GstF tFFHp-
fi-0.-“ OzpF NEzFF,alwtolGtzy hplwwA bzEv3

bp zynp lrlty pKlxtyp Gsp mpslItzE zq nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy ty l strs!otxpyFtzylw
nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpx- NzyFtopE l FnpylEtz JtGs Y ˆ =$ FlxCwpF ty GJz
pDHlw!FtBpo nwlFFpF+ lyo C ˆ 4$$ DHlyGtGlGtIp CEpotnGzEF GslG lEp tyopCpy!
opyG zq Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF- Zynp lrlty+ Gsp GEHp pEEzE ElGp zq lyA nwlFFt¨pE tF
4$0- NzyFtopE l FtxCwp HytIlEtlGp nwlFFt¨pE9 l Ftyrwp FCwtG GslG xtytxtBpF
Gsp xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE ’l ˜FGHxC˙(- iGHxCF lEp GEppF JtGs l Ftyrwp FCwtG+
lyo lEp HFpo ty mzzFGtyr xpGszoF ’NslCGpE %$(- L FtxCwp lErHxpyG FHr!
rpFGF GslG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Jtww yzG JzEv CEzCpEwA ty GstF FpGGtyr= 9
QtGGtyr Gz Gsp pyGtEp GEltytyr FpG) Jp Jtww ÿo l CEpotnGzE GslG

FCwtGF Gsp olGl IpEA Jpww Tq Jp oz 4,qzwo nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy) GstF
Flxp CEpotnGzE FszHwo FCwtG lyA ?.4GsF lyo %.4Gs zq Gsp olGl
Jpww Gzz) lyo spynp tGF nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy pEEzE Jtww mp Fxlww &xHns
wpFF Gsly 4/0( jsHF Na ozpF yzG rtIp ly lnnHElGp pFGtxlGp zq
pEEzE-
jz tyIpFGtrlGp JspGspE GstF lErHxpyG tF nzEEpnG+ QtrHEp fi-%% FszJF Gsp

EpFHwG zq l FtxHwlGtzy qEzx GstF FpGGtyr- jspEp lEp 4$$ CEpotnGzEF lyo =$
FlxCwpF+ ty plns zq GJz pDHlw!FtBpo nwlFFpF+ JtGs lww CEpotnGzEF slItyr l
FGlyolEo RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy- jsp Clypw ty Gsp GzC wpqG FszJF Gsp yHxmpE
zq GEltytyr pEEzEF qzE plns zq Gsp 4$$ FGHxCF ¨G Gz Gsp GEltytyr olGl- bp
slIp xlEvpo ty nzwzE Gsp FtK CEpotnGzEF Atpwotyr Gsp qpJpFG pEEzEF- Ty Gsp GzC
EtrsG Clypw+ Gsp GEltytyr pEEzEF lEp FszJy qzE FGHxCF ¨G Gz l Elyozx ?.4GsF
ClEGtGtzy zq Gsp olGl ’%[ FlxCwpF(+ lyo GpFGpo zy Gsp Epxltytyr %.4Gs ’qzHE
FlxCwpF(- jsp nzwzEpo CztyGF tyotnlGp Gsp Flxp CEpotnGzEF xlEvpo ty Gsp
GzC wpqG Clypw- bp Fpp GslG Gsp FGHxC qzE Gsp mwHp CEpotnGzE ’JszFp FGHxC
JlF Gsp mpFG ty Gsp GzC wpqG Clypw(+ xlvpF GJz zHG zq qzHE GpFG pEEzEF ’4$0(+
lyo tF yz mpGGpE Gsly Elyozx-
bslG slF slCCpypo¯ jsp CEpnpotyr lErHxpyG slF tryzEpo Gsp qlnG GslG
ty nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy+ Gsp xzopw xHFG mp nzxCwpGpwA EpGEltypo qzE plns qzwo
= jstF lErHxpyG JlF xlop Gz HF mA l FntpyGtFG lG l CEzGpzxtnF wlm xppGtyr) lyo wpo
Gz xlGpEtlw ty GstF FpnGtzy-

=?] fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
4
8
Error on Full Training Set
3
7
Error on 1/5
6
2
5
4
1
3
0
2
0 100 200 300 400 500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Predictor Error on 4/5
1.0
1
0.8
Class Label
0.6
full
4/5
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
−1 0 1 2
Predictor 436 (blue) CV Errors
QTRIFD 6W00W itxHwlGtzy FGHoA Gz tyIpFGtrlGp Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq nEzFF Ilwt,

olGtzy ty l strs,otxpyFtzylw CEzmwpx JspEp Gsp CEpotnGzEF lEp tyopCpyopyG zq Gsp
nwlFF wlmpwF- jsp GzC,wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp yHxmpE zq pEEzEF xlop mA tyotItoHlw
FGHxC nwlFFt6pEF zy Gsp qHww GEltytyr FpG ’=/ zmFpEIlGtzyF(- jsp GzC EtrsG Clypw
FszJF Gsp pEEzEF xlop mA tyotItoHlw FGHxCF GEltypo zy l Elyozx FCwtG zq Gsp
olGlFpG tyGz ?.4GsF ’%[ zmFpEIlGtzyF( lyo GpFGpo zy Gsp Epxltytyr %.4Gs ’? zm,
FpEIlGtzyF(- jsp mpFG CpEqzExpEF lEp opCtnGpo mA nzwzEpo ozGF ty plns Clypw- jsp
mzGGzx wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp p;pnG zq Ep,pFGtxlGtyr Gsp FCwtG CztyG ty plns qzwo9 Gsp
nzwzEpo CztyGF nzEEpFCzyo Gz Gsp qzHE FlxCwpF ty Gsp ?.4GsF IlwtolGtzy FpG- jsp
FCwtG CztyG opEtIpo qEzx Gsp qHww olGlFpG nwlFFt6pF lww qzHE FlxCwpF nzEEpnGwA+ mHG
Jspy Gsp FCwtG CztyG tF Ep,pFGtxlGpo zy Gsp ?.4GsF olGl ’lF tG FszHwo mp(+ tG nzx,
xtGF GJz pEEzEF zy Gsp qzHE IlwtolGtzy FlxCwpF- Ty Gsp mzGGzx EtrsG Jp Fpp Gsp
zIpElww EpFHwG zq 6Ip,qzwo nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy lCCwtpo Gz 4/ FtxHwlGpo olGlFpGF- jsp
lIpElrp pEEzE ElGp tF lmzHG 4/0+ lF tG FszHwo mp-
fi-%% MzzGFGElC cpGszoF =?–
zq Gsp CEznpFF- Ty Gsp CEpFpyG pKlxCwp+ GstF xplyF GslG Gsp mpFG CEpotnGzE
lyo nzEEpFCzyotyr FCwtG CztyG lEp qzHyo qEzx ?.4GsF zq Gsp olGl- jsp pΓpnG
zq CEpotnGzE nsztnp tF Fppy ty Gsp GzC EtrsG Clypw- itynp Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF lEp
tyopCpyopyG zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF+ Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq l FGHxC zy Gsp ?.4GsF
GEltytyr olGl nzyGltyF yz tyqzExlGtzy lmzHG tGF CpEqzExlynp ty Gsp Epxlty!
tyr %.4Gs- jsp pΓpnG zq Gsp nsztnp zq FCwtG CztyG tF FszJy ty Gsp mzGGzx wpqG
Clypw- SpEp Jp Fpp Gsp olGl qzE CEpotnGzE ?“[+ nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz Gsp mwHp
ozG ty Gsp GzC wpqG CwzG- jsp nzwzEpo CztyGF tyotnlGp Gsp %.4Gs olGl+ Jstwp
Gsp Epxltytyr CztyGF mpwzyr Gz Gsp ?.4GsF- jsp zCGtxlw FCwtG CztyGF qzE GstF
CEpotnGzE mlFpo zy mzGs Gsp qHww GEltytyr FpG lyo ?.4GsF olGl lEp tyotnlGpo-
jsp FCwtG mlFpo zy Gsp qHww olGl xlvpF yz pEEzEF zy Gsp %.4GsF olGl- MHG
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy xHFG mlFp tGF FCwtG zy Gsp ?.4GsF olGl+ lyo GstF tynHEF GJz
pEEzEF zHG zq qzHE FlxCwpF-
jsp EpFHwGF zq lCCwAtyr Ïp!qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Gz plns zq 4$ FtxHwlGpo
olGlFpGF tF FszJy ty Gsp mzGGzx EtrsG Clypw- LF Jp JzHwo szCp+ Gsp lIpElrp
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy pEEzE tF lEzHyo 4$0+ Jstns tF Gsp GEHp pKCpnGpo CEpotnGtzy
pEEzE qzE GstF nwlFFt¨pE- Spynp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy slF mpslIpo lF tG FszHwo-
Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ GspEp tF nzyFtopElmwp IlEtlmtwtGA ty Gsp pEEzE+ HyopEFnzE!
tyr Gsp txCzEGlynp zq EpCzEGtyr Gsp pFGtxlGpo FGlyolEo pEEzE zq Gsp Na
pFGtxlGp- ipp PKpEntFp fi-%$ qzE lyzGspE IlEtlGtzy zq GstF CEzmwpx-
fi-00 MzzGFGElC cpGszoF

jsp mzzGFGElC tF l rpypElw Gzzw qzE lFFpFFtyr FGlGtFGtnlw lnnHElnA- QtEFG Jp
opFnEtmp Gsp mzzGFGElC ty rpypElw+ lyo Gspy FszJ szJ tG nly mp HFpo Gz
pFGtxlGp pKGEl!FlxCwp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE- LF JtGs nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy+ Gsp mzzG!
FGElC FppvF Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp nzyotGtzylw pEEzE PEEH + mHG GACtnlwwA pFGtxlGpF
Jpww zywA Gsp pKCpnGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE PEE-
iHCCzFp Jp slIp l xzopw ¨G Gz l FpG zq GEltytyr olGl- bp opyzGp Gsp
GEltytyr FpG mA e ˆ ’B0 W B= W , , , W BY ( JspEp Bt ˆ ’Kt W At (- jsp mlFtn topl tF
Gz ElyozxwA oElJ olGlFpGF JtGs EpCwlnpxpyG qEzx Gsp GEltytyr olGl+ plns
FlxCwp Gsp Flxp FtBp lF Gsp zEtrtylw GEltytyr FpG- jstF tF ozyp M GtxpF
’M ˆ %$$ FlA(+ CEzoHntyr M mzzGFGElC olGlFpGF+ lF FszJy ty QtrHEp fi-%=-
jspy Jp Ep¨G Gsp xzopw Gz plns zq Gsp mzzGFGElC olGlFpGF+ lyo pKlxtyp
Gsp mpslItzE zq Gsp ¨GF zIpE Gsp M EpCwtnlGtzyF-
Ty Gsp ¨rHEp+ i’e( tF lyA DHlyGtGA nzxCHGpo qEzx Gsp olGl e+ qzE pK!
lxCwp+ Gsp CEpotnGtzy lG Fzxp tyCHG CztyG- QEzx Gsp mzzGFGElC FlxCwtyr
Jp nly pFGtxlGp lyA lFCpnG zq Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy zq i’e(+ qzE pKlxCwp+ tGF
IlEtlynp+
M
̂ % ∑
alE”i’e(fl ˆ ’i’e{m ( } i3{ (= W ’fi-4“(
M}%
mˆ0
=4/ fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
MzzGFGElC
EpCwtnlGtzyF
i’e{0 ( i’e{= ( i’e{M (
MzzGFGElC
FlxCwpF
e{0 e{= e{M
e ˆ ’B0 W B= W , , , W BY ( jEltytyr
FlxCwp
QTRIFD 6W01W inspxlGtn zq Gsp mzzGFGElC CEznpFF- bp JtFs Gz lFFpFF Gsp FGl,
GtFGtnlw lnnHElnA zq l DHlyGtGA i’C( nzxCHGpo qEzx zHE olGlFpG- M GEltytyr FpGF
C∗m W m ˆ %W , , , W M plns zq FtBp Y lEp oElJy JtGs EpCwlnpxpyG qEzx Gsp zEtrtylw
olGlFpG- jsp DHlyGtGA zq tyGpEpFG i’C( tF nzxCHGpo qEzx plns mzzGFGElC GEltytyr
FpG+ lyo Gsp IlwHpF i’C∗0 (W , , , W i’C∗M ( lEp HFpo Gz lFFpFF Gsp FGlGtFGtnlw lnnHElnA
zq i’C(-
( ̂
JspEp i3{ ˆ {m
m i’e (.M- YzGp GslG alE”i’e(fl nly mp GszHrsG zq lF l
XzyGp!NlEwz pFGtxlGp zq Gsp IlEtlynp zq i’e( HyopE FlxCwtyr qEzx Gsp
pxCtEtnlw otFGEtmHGtzy qHynGtzy Q— qzE Gsp olGl ’B0 W B= W , , , W BY (-
SzJ nly Jp lCCwA Gsp mzzGFGElC Gz pFGtxlGp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE¯ Zyp lC!
CEzlns JzHwo mp Gz ¨G Gsp xzopw ty DHpFGtzy zy l FpG zq mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF+
lyo Gspy vppC GElnv zq szJ Jpww tG CEpotnGF Gsp zEtrtylw GEltytyr FpG- Tq
q—{m ’Kt ( tF Gsp CEpotnGpo IlwHp lG Kt + qEzx Gsp xzopw ¨GGpo Gz Gsp mGs mzzG!
FGElC olGlFpG+ zHE pFGtxlGp tF
M ∑
∑ Y
̂mBBG ˆ % %
PEE ’At W q—{m ’Kt ((, ’fi-4?(
MY tˆ0 mˆ0
̂mBBG ozpF yzG CEzItop l rzzo pFGtxlGp ty

SzJpIpE+ tG tF plFA Gz Fpp GslG PEE
rpypElw- jsp EplFzy tF GslG Gsp mzzGFGElC olGlFpGF lEp lnGtyr lF Gsp GEltytyr
FlxCwpF+ Jstwp Gsp zEtrtylw GEltytyr FpG tF lnGtyr lF Gsp GpFG FlxCwp+ lyo
GspFp GJz FlxCwpF slIp zmFpEIlGtzyF ty nzxxzy- jstF zIpEwlC nly xlvp
zIpE¨G CEpotnGtzyF wzzv HyEplwtFGtnlwwA rzzo+ lyo tF Gsp EplFzy GslG nEzFF!
IlwtolGtzy pKCwtntGwA HFpF yzy!zIpEwlCCtyr olGl qzE Gsp GEltytyr lyo GpFG
FlxCwpF- NzyFtopE qzE pKlxCwp l %!yplEpFG yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨pE lCCwtpo Gz l
GJz!nwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpx JtGs Gsp Flxp yHxmpE zq zmFpEIlGtzyF ty
fi-%% MzzGFGElC cpGszoF =4%
plns nwlFF+ ty Jstns Gsp CEpotnGzEF lyo nwlFF wlmpwF lEp ty qlnG tyopCpyopyG-
jspy Gsp GEHp pEEzE ElGp tF $,4- MHG Gsp nzyGEtmHGtzyF Gz Gsp mzzGFGElC
̂mBBG Jtww mp BpEz HywpFF Gsp zmFpEIlGtzy t ozpF yzG lCCplE ty Gsp
pFGtxlGp PEE
mzzGFGElC FlxCwp m- Ty GstF wlGGpE nlFp tG Jtww slIp Gsp nzEEpnG pKCpnGlGtzy
$,4- YzJ
& % 'Y
fE·zmFpEIlGtzy t ∈ mzzGFGElC FlxCwp m• ˆ % } % }
Y
≈ % } p}0
ˆ $,[“=, ’fi-44(
Spynp Gsp pKCpnGlGtzy zq PEÊmBBG tF lmzHG $,4 × $,“[] ˆ $,%]?+ qlE mpwzJ
Gsp nzEEpnG pEEzE ElGp $,4-
MA xtxtnvtyr nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy+ l mpGGpE mzzGFGElC pFGtxlGp nly mp zm!
Gltypo- QzE plns zmFpEIlGtzy+ Jp zywA vppC GElnv zq CEpotnGtzyF qEzx mzzG!
FGElC FlxCwpF yzG nzyGltytyr GslG zmFpEIlGtzy- jsp wplIp!zyp!zHG mzzGFGElC
pFGtxlGp zq CEpotnGtzy pEEzE tF opÿpo mA
Y
̂
W0( % ∑ % ∑
PEE ˆ }t
’At W q—{m ’Kt ((, ’fi-4[(
Y tˆ0 KN K Tt m∈N
SpEp N }t tF Gsp FpG zq tyotnpF zq Gsp mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF m GslG oz yzG nzyGlty
W0(
̂ +
zmFpEIlGtzy t+ lyo KN }t K tF Gsp yHxmpE zq FHns FlxCwpF- Ty nzxCHGtyr PEE
Jp ptGspE slIp Gz nszzFp M wlErp pyzHrs Gz pyFHEp GslG lww zq Gsp KN }t K lEp
rEplGpE Gsly BpEz+ zE Jp nly uHFG wplIp zHG Gsp GpExF ty ’fi-4[( nzEEpFCzyotyr
Gz KN }t K&F GslG lEp BpEz-
jsp wplIp!zyp zHG mzzGFGElC FzwIpF Gsp zIpE¨GGtyr CEzmwpx FHΓpEpo mA
̂mBBG + mHG slF Gsp GEltytyr!FpG!FtBp mtlF xpyGtzypo ty Gsp otFnHFFtzy zq
PEE
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- jsp lIpElrp yHxmpE zq otFGtynG zmFpEIlGtzyF ty plns mzzG!
FGElC FlxCwp tF lmzHG $,[“= ± Y + Fz tGF mtlF Jtww EzHrswA mpslIp wtvp GslG zq
GJzqzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- jsHF tq Gsp wplEytyr nHEIp slF nzyFtopElmwp FwzCp
lG FlxCwp FtBp Y.=+ Gsp wplIp!zyp zHG mzzGFGElC Jtww mp mtlFpo HCJlEo lF
ly pFGtxlGp zq Gsp GEHp pEEzE-
jsp ˜,[“= pFGtxlGzE˙ tF opFtrypo Gz lwwpItlGp GstF mtlF- TG tF opÿpo mA
W,[˜=( W0(
̂
PEE ̂
ˆ ,“[] ± pEE ) ,[“= ± PEE , ’fi-4fi(
jsp opEtIlGtzy zq Gsp ,[“= pFGtxlGzE tF nzxCwpK: tyGHtGtIpwA tG CHwwF Gsp

wplIp!zyp zHG mzzGFGElC pFGtxlGp ozJy GzJlEo Gsp GEltytyr pEEzE ElGp+ lyo
spynp EpoHnpF tGF HCJlEo mtlF- jsp HFp zq Gsp nzyFGlyG -[“= EpwlGpF Gz ’fi-44(-
jsp ,[“= pFGtxlGzE JzEvF Jpww ty ˜wtrsG ¨GGtyr˙ FtGHlGtzyF+ mHG nly mEplv
ozJy ty zIpE¨G zypF- SpEp tF ly pKlxCwp oHp Gz MEptxly pG lw- ’%–]?(-
iHCCzFp Jp slIp GJz pDHlw!FtBp nwlFFpF+ JtGs Gsp GlErpGF tyopCpyopyG zq
Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF+ lyo Jp lCCwA l zyp!yplEpFG yptrsmzE EHwp- jspy pEE ˆ $+
=4= fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
W0( W,[˜=(
̂ ˆ $,4 lyo Fz PEE
PEE ̂ ˆ ,[“= × $,4 ˆ ,“%[- SzJpIpE+ Gsp GEHp pEEzE
ElGp tF $-4-
Zyp nly txCEzIp Gsp -[“= pFGtxlGzE mA Glvtyr tyGz lnnzHyG Gsp lxzHyG
zq zIpE¨GGtyr- QtEFG Jp opÿp γ Gz mp Gsp yz,tyqzExlGtzy pEEzE ElGp9 GstF
tF Gsp pEEzE ElGp zq zHE CEpotnGtzy EHwp tq Gsp tyCHGF lyo nwlFF wlmpwF JpEp
tyopCpyopyG- Ly pFGtxlGp zq γ tF zmGltypo mA pIlwHlGtyr Gsp CEpotnGtzy EHwp
zy lww CzFFtmwp nzxmtylGtzyF zq GlErpGF At lyo CEpotnGzEF Kt′
Y Y
% ∑∑
γ— ˆ ’At W q—’Kt′ ((, ’fi-4](
Y = tˆ0 ′
t ˆ0
QzE pKlxCwp+ nzyFtopE Gsp otnszGzxzHF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpx9 wpG C—0 mp

Gsp zmFpEIpo CEzCzEGtzy zq EpFCzyFpF At pDHlwtyr %+ lyo wpG D—0 mp Gsp zm!
FpEIpo CEzCzEGtzy zq CEpotnGtzyF q—’Kt′ ( pDHlwtyr %- jspy
γ— ˆ C—0 ’% } D—0 ( ) ’% } C—0 (—
D0 , ’fi-4–(
btGs l EHwp wtvp %!yplEpFG yptrsmzEF qzE Jstns D—0 ˆ C—0 Gsp ( IlwHp zq γ— tF
=—
C0 ’%} C—0 (- jsp xHwGt!nlGprzEA rpypElwtBlGtzy zq ’fi-4–( tF γ— ˆ ℓ C—ℓ ’%} D—ℓ (-
kFtyr GstF+ Gsp EpwlGtIp zIpE¨GGtyr ElGp tF opÿpo Gz mp
W0(
̂
— ˆ PEE } pEE W
h ’fi-[$(
γ— } pEE
W0(
l DHlyGtGA GslG ElyrpF qEzx $ tq GspEp tF yz zIpE¨GGtyr ’PEÊ ˆ pEE( Gz %
tq Gsp zIpE¨GGtyr pDHlwF Gsp yz!tyqzExlGtzy IlwHp γ— } pEE- QtylwwA+ Jp opÿp
Gsp ˜-[“=)˙ pFGtxlGzE mA
W,[˜=)( W0(
̂
PEE ˆ ’% } J(
— ± pEE ) J ̂
— ± PEE ’fi-[%(
,[“=
JtGs J
— ˆ ,
—
% } ,“[]h
W,[˜=)(
jsp JptrsG J ElyrpF qEzx ,[“= tq h — ˆ $ Gz % tq h ̂
— ˆ %+ Fz PEE
W,[˜=( W0(
̂
ElyrpF qEzx PEE ̂ - Lrlty+ Gsp opEtIlGtzy zq ’fi-[%( tF nzxCwt!
Gz PEE
nlGpo9 EzHrswA FCplvtyr+ tG CEzoHnpF l nzxCEzxtFp mpGJppy Gsp wplIp!zyp!
zHG mzzGFGElC lyo Gsp GEltytyr pEEzE ElGp GslG opCpyoF zy Gsp lxzHyG zq
zIpE¨GGtyr- QzE Gsp %!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE CEzmwpx JtGs nwlFF wlmpwF tyopCpy!
W,[˜=)( W0(
opyG zq Gsp tyCHGF+ J—ˆh ̂
— ˆ %+ Fz PEE ̂ + Jstns slF Gsp nzEEpnG
ˆ PEE
W,[˜=)(
̂
pKCpnGlGtzy zq $-4- Ty zGspE CEzmwpxF JtGs wpFF zIpE¨GGtyr+ PEE Jtww
W0(
̂ -
wtp FzxpJspEp mpGJppy pEE lyo PEE
fi-00-0 PKlxCwp ’NzyGtyHpo(

QtrHEp fi-%“ FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF zq Gpyqzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy lyo Gsp -[“=) mzzG!
FGElC pFGtxlGp ty Gsp Flxp qzHE CEzmwpxF zq QtrHEpF fi-fi- LF ty GslG ¨rHEp+
fi-%% MzzGFGElC cpGszoF =4“
Cross−validation
100
80
60
40
20
0
Bootstrap
100
80
60
40
20
0
QTRIFD 6W02W MzKCwzGF FszJ Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp EpwlGtIp pEEzE

%// ± ”PEEα1 } xtyα PEE’α(7.”xlKα PEE’α( } xtyα PEE’α(7 zIpE Gsp qzHE FnpylE,
tzF zq QtrHEp fi-“- jstF tF Gsp pEEzE ty HFtyr Gsp nszFpy xzopw EpwlGtIp Gz Gsp mpFG
xzopw- jspEp lEp %// GEltytyr FpGF EpCEpFpyGpo ty plns mzKCwzG-
QtrHEp fi-%“ FszJF mzKCwzGF zq %$$ ± ”PEEα1 } xtyα PEE’α(fl.”xlKα PEE’α( }

xtyα PEE’α(fl+ Gsp pEEzE ty HFtyr Gsp nszFpy xzopw EpwlGtIp Gz Gsp mpFG xzopw-
jspEp lEp %$$ otΓpEpyG GEltytyr FpGF EpCEpFpyGpo ty plns mzKCwzG- MzGs xpl!
FHEpF CpEqzEx Jpww zIpElww+ CpEslCF Gsp Flxp zE FwtrsGwA JzEFp GslG Gsp LTN
ty QtrHEp fi-fi-
ZHE nzynwHFtzy tF GslG qzE GspFp ClEGtnHwlE CEzmwpxF lyo ¨GGtyr xpGszoF+
xtytxtBlGtzy zq ptGspE LTN+ nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy zE mzzGFGElC AtpwoF l xzopw
qltEwA nwzFp Gz Gsp mpFG lIltwlmwp- YzGp GslG qzE Gsp CHECzFp zq xzopw Fpwpn!
Gtzy+ lyA zq Gsp xplFHEpF nzHwo mp mtlFpo lyo tG JzHwoy&G lΓpnG GstyrF+ lF
wzyr lF Gsp mtlF oto yzG nslyrp Gsp EpwlGtIp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp xpGszoF-
QzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp lootGtzy zq l nzyFGlyG Gz lyA zq Gsp xplFHEpF JzHwo yzG
nslyrp Gsp EpFHwGtyr nszFpy xzopw- SzJpIpE+ qzE xlyA lolCGtIp+ yzywtyplE
GpnsytDHpF ’wtvp GEppF(+ pFGtxlGtzy zq Gsp pΓpnGtIp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF tF
IpEA otffnHwG- jstF xlvpF xpGszoF wtvp LTN txCElnGtnlw lyo wplIpF HF JtGs
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy zE mzzGFGElC lF Gsp xpGszoF zq nsztnp-
L otΓpEpyG DHpFGtzy tF9 szJ Jpww ozpF plns xpGszo pFGtxlGp GpFG pEEzE¯
Zy Gsp lIpElrp Gsp LTN nEtGpEtzy zIpEpFGtxlGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE zq tGF nsz!
=4? fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
Fpy xzopw mA “]0+ “fi0+ 4%0+ lyo “$0+ EpFCpnGtIpwA+ zIpE Gsp qzHE FnpylEtzF+
JtGs MTN CpEqzExtyr FtxtwlEwA- Ty nzyGElFG+ nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy zIpEpFGtxlGpo
Gsp pEEzE mA %0+ ?0+ $0+ lyo ?0+ JtGs Gsp mzzGFGElC oztyr lmzHG Gsp
Flxp- Spynp Gsp pKGEl JzEv tyIzwIpo ty nzxCHGtyr l nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy zE
mzzGFGElC xplFHEp tF JzEGsJstwp+ tq ly lnnHElGp pFGtxlGp zq GpFG pEEzE tF
EpDHtEpo- btGs zGspE ¨GGtyr xpGszoF wtvp GEppF+ nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy lyo mzzG!
FGElC nly HyopEpFGtxlGp Gsp GEHp pEEzE mA %$0+ mpnlHFp Gsp FplEns qzE mpFG
GEpp tF FGEzyrwA lΓpnGpo mA Gsp IlwtolGtzy FpG- Ty GspFp FtGHlGtzyF zywA l
FpClElGp GpFG FpG Jtww CEzItop ly HymtlFpo pFGtxlGp zq GpFG pEEzE-
fi-01 NzyotGtzylw zE PKCpnGpo jpFG PEEzE3

QtrHEpF fi-%? lyo fi-%4 pKlxtyp Gsp DHpFGtzy zq JspGspE nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy ozpF
l rzzo uzm ty pFGtxlGtyr PEEH + Gsp pEEzE nzyotGtzylw zy l rtIpy GEltytyr FpG
H ’pKCEpFFtzy ’fi-%4( zy Clrp ==](+ lF zCCzFpo Gz Gsp pKCpnGpo GpFG pEEzE-
QzE plns zq %$$ GEltytyr FpGF rpypElGpo qEzx Gsp ˜Epr#wtyplE˙ FpGGtyr ty
Gsp GzC!EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp fi-“+ QtrHEp fi-%? FszJF Gsp nzyotGtzylw pEEzE
nHEIpF PEEH lF l qHynGtzy zq FHmFpG FtBp ’GzC wpqG(- jsp ypKG GJz ClypwF FszJ
%$!qzwo lyo Y !qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy+ Gsp wlGGpE lwFz vyzJy lF wplIp!zyp!zHG
’ ZZ(- jsp Gstnv Epo nHEIp ty plns CwzG tF Gsp pKCpnGpo pEEzE PEE+ Jstwp
Gsp Gstnv mwlnv nHEIpF lEp Gsp pKCpnGpo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy nHEIpF- jsp wzJpE
EtrsG Clypw FszJF szJ Jpww nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy lCCEzKtxlGpF Gsp nzyotGtzylw
lyo pKCpnGpo pEEzE-
Zyp xtrsG slIp pKCpnGpo Y !qzwo Na Gz lCCEzKtxlGp PEEH Jpww+ Ftynp tG
lwxzFG HFpF Gsp qHww GEltytyr FlxCwp Gz ¨G l ypJ GpFG CztyG- %$!qzwo Na+ zy
Gsp zGspE slyo+ xtrsG mp pKCpnGpo Gz pFGtxlGp PEE Jpww+ Ftynp tG lIpElrpF
zIpE FzxpJslG otΓpEpyG GEltytyr FpGF- QEzx Gsp ¨rHEp tG lCCplEF %$!qzwo
ozpF l mpGGpE uzm Gsly Y !qzwo ty pFGtxlGtyr PEEH + lyo pFGtxlGpF PEE pIpy
mpGGpE- Tyoppo+ Gsp FtxtwlEtGA zq Gsp GJz mwlnv nHEIpF JtGs Gsp Epo nHEIp
FHrrpFGF mzGs Na nHEIpF lEp lCCEzKtxlGpwA HymtlFpo qzE PEE+ JtGs %$!qzwo
slItyr wpFF IlEtlynp- itxtwlE GEpyoF JpEp EpCzEGpo mA PqEzy ’%–]“(-
QtrHEp fi-%4 FszJF FnlGGpECwzGF zq mzGs %$!qzwo lyo Y !qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy
pEEzE pFGtxlGpF IpEFHF Gsp GEHp nzyotGtzylw pEEzE qzE Gsp %$$ FtxHwlGtzyF-
LwGszHrs Gsp FnlGGpECwzGF oz yzG tyotnlGp xHns nzEEpwlGtzy+ Gsp wzJpE EtrsG
Clypw FszJF GslG qzE Gsp xzFG ClEG Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF lEp yprlGtIp+ l nHEt!
zHF Cspyzxpyzy GslG slF mppy zmFpEIpo mpqzEp- jstF yprlGtIp nzEEpwlGtzy
pKCwltyF JsA yptGspE qzEx zq Na pFGtxlGpF PEEH Jpww- jsp mEzvpy wtypF ty
plns CwzG lEp oElJy lG PEE’C(+ Gsp pKCpnGpo pEEzE qzE Gsp mpFG FHmFpG zq
FtBp C- bp Fpp lrlty GslG mzGs qzExF zq Na lEp lCCEzKtxlGpwA HymtlFpo qzE
pKCpnGpo pEEzE+ mHG Gsp IlEtlGtzy ty GpFG pEEzE qzE otΓpEpyG GEltytyr FpGF tF
DHtGp FHmFGlyGtlw-
Lxzyr Gsp qzHE pKCpEtxpyGlw nzyotGtzyF ty fi-“+ GstF ˜Epr#wtyplE˙ FnpylEtz
FszJpo Gsp strspFG nzEEpwlGtzy mpGJppy lnGHlw lyo CEpotnGpo GpFG pEEzE- jstF
fi-%= NzyotGtzylw zE PKCpnGpo jpFG PEEzE3 =44
Prediction Error 10−Fold CV Error

0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
Error
Error
0.2
0.2
0.1
5 10 15 20 0.1 5 10 15 20
Subset Size p Subset Size p
Leave−One−Out CV Error Approximation Error

0.045
PH KNa0$ }PEEK
0.4
PH KNa0$ }PEEH K
Mean Absolute Deviation
PH KNad }PEEH K
0.035
0.3
Error
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.015
5 10 15 20 5 10 15 20
Subset Size p Subset Size p
QTRIFD 6W03W NzyotGtzylw CEpotnGtzy,pEEzE PEE + %/,qzwo nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy+ lyo

wplIp,zyp,zHG nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy nHEIpF qzE l %// FtxHwlGtzyF qEzx Gsp GzC,EtrsG
Clypw ty QtrHEp fi-“- jsp Gstnv Epo nHEIp tF Gsp pKCpnGpo CEpotnGtzy pEEzE PEE+
Jstwp Gsp Gstnv mwlnv nHEIpF lEp Gsp pKCpnGpo Na nHEIpF P Na0+ lyo P NaB -
jsp wzJpE,EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp xply lmFzwHGp opItlGtzy zq Gsp Na nHEIpF qEzx
Gsp nzyotGtzylw pEEzE+ P VNaa } PEE V qzE V ˆ %/ ’mwHp( lyo V ˆ Y ’rEppy(+
lF Jpww lF qEzx Gsp pKCpnGpo pEEzE P VNa0+ } PEEV ’zElyrp(-
=4[ fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
Subset Size 1 Subset Size 5

0.40
0.40
0.30
0.30
CV Error
CV Error
0.20
0.20
0.10
0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40
Prediction Error Prediction Error
Subset Size 10
0.2
0.40
0.0
0.30
Correlation
CV Error
−0.2
0.20
−0.4
0.10
Leave−one−out
10−Fold
−0.6
0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 5 10 15 20
Prediction Error Subset Size
QTRIFD 6W04W fwzGF zq Gsp Na pFGtxlGpF zq pEEzE IpEFHF Gsp GEHp nzyotGtzylw
pEEzE qzE plns zq Gsp %// GEltytyr FpGF+ qzE Gsp FtxHwlGtzy FpGHC ty Gsp GzC EtrsG
Clypw QtrHEp fi-“- MzGs %/,qzwo lyo wplIp,zyp,zHG Na lEp opCtnGpo ty ot;pEpyG
nzwzEF- jsp 6EFG GsEpp ClypwF nzEEpFCzyo Gz ot;pEpyG FHmFpG FtBpF C+ lyo IpEGtnlw
lyo szEtBzyGlw wtypF lEp oElJy lG PEE’C(- LwGszHrs GspEp lCCplEF Gz mp wtGGwp nzE,
EpwlGtzy ty GspFp CwzGF+ Jp Fpp ty Gsp wzJpE EtrsG Clypw GslG qzE Gsp xzFG ClEG Gsp
nzEEpwlGtzy tF yprlGtIp-
PKpEntFpF =4fi
Cspyzxpyzy lwFz znnHEF qzE mzzGFGElC pFGtxlGpF zq pEEzE+ lyo Jp JzHwo

rHpFF+ qzE lyA zGspE pFGtxlGp zq nzyotGtzylw CEpotnGtzy pEEzE-
bp nzynwHop GslG pFGtxlGtzy zq GpFG pEEzE qzE l ClEGtnHwlE GEltytyr FpG tF
yzG plFA ty rpypElw+ rtIpy uHFG Gsp olGl qEzx GslG Flxp GEltytyr FpG- TyFGplo+
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy lyo EpwlGpo xpGszoF xlA CEzItop EplFzylmwp pFGtxlGpF zq
Gsp pKCpnGpo pEEzE PEE-
MtmwtzrElCstn dzGpF
VpA EpqpEpynpF qzE nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy lEp iGzyp ’%–fi?(+ iGzyp ’%–fifi( lyo
Lwwpy ’%–fi?(- jsp LTN JlF CEzCzFpo mA Lvltvp ’%–fi“(+ Jstwp Gsp MTN
JlF tyGEzoHnpo mA insJlEB ’%–fi](- Xlotrly lyo hlqGpEA ’%––?( rtIp ly
zIpEItpJ zq MlApFtly xzopw FpwpnGtzy- jsp XO nEtGpEtzy tF oHp Gz htFFl!
ypy ’%–]“(- NzIpE lyo jszxlF ’%––%( nzyGltyF l rzzo opFnEtCGtzy zq nzotyr
GspzEA lyo nzxCwpKtGA- aN otxpyFtzy tF opFnEtmpo ty alCytv ’%––[(- iGzyp
’%–fifi( FszJpo GslG Gsp LTN lyo wplIp!zyp zHG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy lEp lFAxC!
GzGtnlwwA pDHtIlwpyG- RpypElwtBpo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy tF opFnEtmpo mA RzwHm pG
lw- ’%–fi–( lyo blsml ’%–]$(: l qHEGspE otFnHFFtzy zq Gsp GzCtn xlA mp qzHyo
ty Gsp xzyzrElCs mA blsml ’%––$(- ipp lwFz SlFGtp lyo jtmFstElyt ’%––$(+
NslCGpE “- jsp mzzGFGElC tF oHp Gz PqEzy ’%–fi–(: Fpp PqEzy lyo jtmFst!
Elyt ’%––“( qzE ly zIpEItpJ- PqEzy ’%–]“( CEzCzFpF l yHxmpE zq mzzGFGElC
pFGtxlGpF zq CEpotnGtzy pEEzE+ tynwHotyr Gsp zCGtxtFx lyo -[“= pFGtxlGpF-
PqEzy ’%–][( nzxClEpF Na+ RNa lyo mzzGFGElC pFGtxlGpF zq pEEzE ElGpF-
jsp HFp zq nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy lyo Gsp mzzGFGElC qzE xzopw FpwpnGtzy tF FGHo!
tpo mA MEptxly lyo iCpnGzE ’%––=(+ MEptxly ’%––=(+ islz ’%––[(+ eslyr
’%––“( lyo VzslIt ’%––4(- jsp ,[“=) pFGtxlGzE JlF CEzCzFpo mA PqEzy
lyo jtmFstElyt ’%––fi(-
NspEvlFFvA lyo Xl ’=$$“( CHmwtFspo l FGHoA zy Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq
ihX qzE xzopw FpwpnGtzy ty EprEpFFtzy+ ty EpFCzyFp Gz zHE FGHoA zq FpnGtzy
fi-–-%- jspA nzxCwltypo GslG Jp slo mppy HyqltE Gz ihX mpnlHFp slo yzG
lCCwtpo tG CEzCpEwA- ZHE EpFCzyFp nly mp qzHyo ty Gsp Flxp tFFHp zq Gsp
uzHEylw ’SlFGtp pG lw- ’=$$“((-
PKpEntFpF
PK- fi-% OpEtIp Gsp pFGtxlGp zq ty!FlxCwp pEEzE ’fi-=?(-

PK- fi-= QzE $8% wzFF JtGs d ∈ ·$W %• lyo fE’d ˆ %KK$ ( ˆ q ’K$ (+ FszJ GslG
PEE’K$ ( ˆ — $ (Kc ˆ K$ (
fE’d 0ˆ R’K
ˆ — $ ( 0ˆ R’K$ (Kc ˆ K$ (W
PEEM ’K$ ( ) K=q ’K$ ( } %KfE’R’K
’fi-[=(
=4] fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
—
JspEp R’K( ˆ T’q—’K( / 0= (+ R’K( ˆ T’q ’K( / =0 ( tF Gsp MlApF nwlFFt¨pE+
lyo PEEM ’K$ ( ˆ fE’d 0ˆ R’K$ (Kc ˆ K$ (+ Gsp tEEpoHntmwp MlApF pEEzE lG K$ -
kFtyr Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtzy q—’K$ ( ∼ Y ’Pq—’K$ (W alE’q—’K$ ((+ FszJ GslG
( 1
Ftry’ 0
} q ’K$ ((’Pq—’K$ ( } 0 (
— $ ( 0ˆ R’K$ (Kc ˆ K$ ( ≈ Φ
fE’R’K =
4 =
, ’fi-[“(
alE’q—’K$ ((
Ty Gsp lmzIp+
∫ G
%
Φ’G( ˆ √ pKC’}G= .=(oGW
=π }∞
Gsp nHxHwlGtIp RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy qHynGtzy- jstF tF ly tynEplFtyr qHyn!

Gtzy+ JtGs IlwHp $ lG G ˆ }∞ lyo IlwHp % lG G ˆ )∞-
bp nly Gstyv zq Ftry’ 0= } q ’K$ ((’Pq—’K$ ( } 0= ( lF l vtyo zq mzHyolEA,
mtlF GpEx+ lF tG opCpyoF zy Gsp GEHp q ’K$ ( zywA GsEzHrs Jstns Ftop zq Gsp
mzHyolEA ’ =0 ( GslG tG wtpF- YzGtnp lwFz GslG Gsp mtlF lyo IlEtlynp nzxmtyp
ty l xHwGtCwtnlGtIp ElGspE Gsly lootGtIp qlFstzy- Tq Pq—’K$ ( tF zy Gsp Flxp
Ftop zq 0= lF q ’K$ (+ Gspy Gsp mtlF tF yprlGtIp+ lyo opnEplFtyr Gsp IlEtlynp
Jtww opnEplFp Gsp xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE- Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ tq Pq—’K$ ( tF
zy Gsp zCCzFtGp Ftop zq 0= Gz q ’K$ (+ Gspy Gsp mtlF tF CzFtGtIp lyo tG ClAF Gz
tynEplFp Gsp IlEtlynp, iHns ly tynEplFp Jtww txCEzIp Gsp nslynp GslG q—’K$ (
qlwwF zy Gsp nzEEpnG Ftop zq 0= ’QEtpoxly+ %––fi(-
PK- fi-“ pG —D ˆ iA mp l wtyplE FxzzGstyr zq A-
’l( Tq itt tF Gsp tGs otlrzylw pwpxpyG zq i+ FszJ GslG qzE i lEtFtyr qEzx wplFG
FDHlEpF CEzupnGtzyF lyo nHmtn FxzzGstyr FCwtypF+ Gsp nEzFF!IlwtolGpo
EpFtoHlw nly mp JEtGGpy lF
At } q—’Kt (
At } q—}t ’Kt ( ˆ , ’fi-[?(
% } itt
’m( kFp GstF EpFHwG Gz FszJ GslG KAt } q—}t ’Kt (K ≥ KAt } q—’Kt (K-
’n( Qtyo rpypElw nzyotGtzyF zy lyA FxzzGspE i Gz xlvp EpFHwG ’fi-[?( szwo-
PK- fi-? NzyFtopE Gsp ty!FlxCwp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE ’fi-%]( lyo Gsp GEltytyr
pEEzE pEE ty Gsp nlFp zq FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF9
Y
% ∑
PEEty ˆ Pd $ ’dt$ } q—’Kt ((=
Y tˆ0
Y
% ∑
pEE ˆ ’At } q—’Kt ((= ,
Y tˆ0
PKpEntFpF =4–
Loo lyo FHmGElnG q ’Kt ( lyo Pq—’Kt ( ty plns pKCEpFFtzy lyo pKClyo- Spynp
pFGlmwtFs GslG Gsp lIpElrp zCGtxtFx ty Gsp GEltytyr pEEzE tF
Y
= ∑
NzI’—
At W At (W
Y tˆ0
lF rtIpy ty ’fi-=%(-
— ˆ iA+ FszJ GslG
PK- fi-4 QzE l wtyplE FxzzGspE A
Y
∑
At W At ( ˆ GElnp’i(σε= W
NzI’— ’fi-[4(
tˆ0
Jstns uHFGt¨pF tGF HFp lF Gsp pΓpnGtIp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF-
PK- fi-[ iszJ GslG qzE ly lootGtIp!pEEzE xzopw+ Gsp pΓpnGtIp oprEppF!zq!
qEppozx qzE Gsp v!yplEpFG!yptrsmzEF EprEpFFtzy ¨G tF Y.v-
PK- fi-fi kFp Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtzy %.’%}K(= ≈ %)=K Gz pKCzFp Gsp EpwlGtzyFstC
mpGJppy NN #LTN ’fi-=[( lyo RNa ’fi-4=(+ Gsp xlty otΓpEpynp mptyr Gsp
xzopw HFpo Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp yztFp IlEtlynp σε= -
PK- fi-] iszJ GslG Gsp FpG zq qHynGtzyF ·T’Fty’αK( / $(• nly FslGGpE Gsp
qzwwzJtyr CztyGF zy Gsp wtyp9
B 0 ˆ %$}0 W , , , W B ℓ ˆ %$}ℓ W ’fi-[[(
qzE lyA ℓ- Spynp Gsp aN otxpyFtzy zq Gsp nwlFF ·T’Fty’αK( / $(• tF tyÿtGp-
PK- fi-– QzE Gsp CEzFGlGp olGl zq NslCGpE “+ nlEEA zHG l mpFG!FHmFpG wtyplE
EprEpFFtzy lylwAFtF+ lF ty jlmwp “-“ ’GstEo nzwHxy qEzx wpqG(- NzxCHGp Gsp
LTN+ MTN+ Ïp! lyo Gpyqzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy+ lyo mzzGFGElC -[“= pFGtxlGpF
zq CEpotnGtzy pEEzE- OtFnHFF Gsp EpFHwGF-
PK- fi-%$ hpqpEEtyr Gz Gsp pKlxCwp ty ipnGtzy fi-%$-“+ FHCCzFp tyFGplo GslG
lww zq Gsp C CEpotnGzEF lEp mtylEA+ lyo spynp GspEp tF yz yppo Gz pFGtxlGp
FCwtG CztyGF- jsp CEpotnGzEF lEp tyopCpyopyG zq Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF lF mpqzEp-
jspy tq C tF IpEA wlErp+ Jp nly CEzmlmwA ÿo l CEpotnGzE GslG FCwtGF Gsp
pyGtEp GEltytyr olGl CpEqpnGwA+ lyo spynp JzHwo FCwtG Gsp IlwtolGtzy olGl
’zyp!¨qGs zq olGl( CpEqpnGwA lF Jpww- jstF CEpotnGzE JzHwo GspEpqzEp slIp
BpEz nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy pEEzE- OzpF GstF xply GslG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy ozpF yzG
CEzItop l rzzo pFGtxlGp zq GpFG pEEzE ty GstF FtGHlGtzy¯ ”jstF DHpFGtzy JlF
FHrrpFGpo mA t Xl-fl
=[/ fi- czopw LFFpFFxpyG lyo ipwpnGtzy
jstF tF Clrp =[%
]
czopw TyDpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
7-0 TyGEzoHnGtzy
QzE xzFG zq GstF mzzv+ Gsp ¨GGtyr ’wplEytyr( zq xzopwF slF mppy lnstpIpo mA
xtytxtBtyr l FHx zq FDHlEpF qzE EprEpFFtzy+ zE mA xtytxtBtyr nEzFF!pyGEzCA
qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy- Ty qlnG+ mzGs zq GspFp xtytxtBlGtzyF lEp tyFGlynpF zq Gsp
xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo lCCEzlns Gz ¨GGtyr-
Ty GstF nslCGpE Jp CEzItop l rpypElw pKCzFtGtzy zq Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwt!
szzo lCCEzlns+ lF Jpww lF Gsp MlApFtly xpGszo qzE tyqpEpynp- jsp mzzG!
FGElC+ tyGEzoHnpo ty NslCGpE fi+ tF otFnHFFpo ty GstF nzyGpKG+ lyo tGF EpwlGtzy
Gz xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo lyo MlApF tF opFnEtmpo- QtylwwA+ Jp CEpFpyG Fzxp
EpwlGpo GpnsytDHpF qzE xzopw lIpElrtyr lyo txCEzIpxpyG+ tynwHotyr nzx!
xtGGpp xpGszoF+ mlrrtyr+ FGlnvtyr lyo mHxCtyr-
7-1 jsp MzzGFGElC lyo clKtxHx tvpwtszzo

cpGszoF
7-1-0 L ixzzGstyr PKlxCwp
jsp mzzGFGElC xpGszo CEzItopF l otEpnG nzxCHGlGtzylw JlA zq lFFpFFtyr
HynpEGltyGA+ mA FlxCwtyr qEzx Gsp GEltytyr olGl- SpEp Jp twwHFGElGp Gsp
mzzGFGElC ty l FtxCwp zyp!otxpyFtzylw FxzzGstyr CEzmwpx+ lyo FszJ tGF
nzyypnGtzy Gz xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo-
=[= ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
1.0
•
5
4
0.8
•
• • • •• •
B-spline Basis
3 • •
0.6
• •
2
•
y
• • •
•
0.4
• •• •
1
•
• •
•• • •
••• •• •• •
• • ••
0
0.2
•
•• • •
••
-1
0.0
•
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
x x
QTRIFD 7W0W ’ pqG Clypw(9 OlGl qzE FxzzGstyr pKlxCwp- ’htrsG Clypw9( ipG zq
FpIpy M,FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF- jsp mEzvpy IpEGtnlw wtypF tyotnlGp Gsp CwlnpxpyG
zq Gsp GsEpp vyzGF-
OpyzGp Gsp GEltytyr olGl mA e ˆ ·B0 W B= W , , , W BY •+ JtGs Bt ˆ ’Kt W At (+

t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y - SpEp Kt tF l zyp!otxpyFtzylw tyCHG+ lyo At Gsp zHGnzxp+
ptGspE nzyGtyHzHF zE nlGprzEtnlw- LF ly pKlxCwp+ nzyFtopE Gsp Y ˆ 4$ olGl
CztyGF FszJy ty Gsp wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp ]-%-
iHCCzFp Jp opntop Gz ¨G l nHmtn FCwtyp Gz Gsp olGl+ JtGs GsEpp vyzGF
Cwlnpo lG Gsp DHlEGtwpF zq Gsp c IlwHpF- jstF tF l FpIpy!otxpyFtzylw wty!
plE FClnp zq qHynGtzyF+ lyo nly mp EpCEpFpyGpo+ qzE pKlxCwp+ mA l wtyplE
pKClyFtzy zq M!FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF ’Fpp ipnGtzy 4-–-=(9
fi
∑
<’K( ˆ βH sH ’K(, ’]-%(
Hˆ0
SpEp Gsp sH ’K(+ u ˆ %W =W , , , W fi lEp Gsp FpIpy qHynGtzyF FszJy ty Gsp EtrsG
Clypw zq QtrHEp ]-%- bp nly Gstyv zq <’K( lF EpCEpFpyGtyr Gsp nzyotGtzylw
xply P’d Kc ˆ K(-
pG S mp Gsp Y × fi xlGEtK JtGs tuGs pwpxpyG sH ’Kt (- jsp HFHlw pFGtxlGp
zq β+ zmGltypo mA xtytxtBtyr Gsp FDHlEpo pEEzE zIpE Gsp GEltytyr FpG+ tF
rtIpy mA
β— ˆ ’Sj S(}0 Sj A, ’]-=(

(fi —
jsp nzEEpFCzyotyr ¨G <—’K( ˆ Hˆ0 βH sH ’K( tF FszJy ty Gsp GzC wpqG Clypw
zq QtrHEp ]-=-
jsp pFGtxlGpo nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK zq β— tF
̂ β(
alE’ — ˆ ’Sj S(}0 σ
—=W ’]-“(
(Y
JspEp Jp slIp pFGtxlGpo Gsp yztFp IlEtlynp mA σ — = ˆ tˆ0 ’At } <
—’Kt ((= .Y -
pGGtyr s’K(j ˆ ’s0 ’K(W s= ’K(W , , , W sfi ’K((+ Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzE zq l CEpotn!
]-= jsp MzzGFGElC lyo clKtxHx tvpwtszzo cpGszoF =[“
• •
5
5
4
4
• •
• • • •• • • • • •• •
3
3
• • • •
• • • •
2
2
• •
y
y
• • • • • •
• •• • • • •• • •
1
1
•
••• •• • •
••• •• •
••• •• •• • ••• •• •• •
• • •• • • ••
0
0
• •
•• • • •• • •
•• ••
-1
-1
• •
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
x x
• •
5
5
4
• •
• • • •• • • • • •• •
3
• • • •
• • • •
2
• •
y
• • • • • •
• •• • • • •• • •
1
••••• • • ••••• • •
••• •• •• • ••• •• •• •
• • •• • • ••
0
• •
•• • • •• • •
•• ••
-1
-1
• •
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
x x
QTRIFD 7W1W ’jzC wpqG9( M,FCwtyp FxzzGs zq olGl- ’jzC EtrsG9( M,FCwtyp FxzzGs
CwHF lyo xtyHF %,–[× FGlyolEo pEEzE mlyoF- ’MzGGzx wpqG9( jpy mzzGFGElC EpCwt,
nlGpF zq Gsp M,FCwtyp FxzzGs- ’MzGGzx EtrsG9( M,FCwtyp FxzzGs JtGs –40 FGlyolEo
pEEzE mlyoF nzxCHGpo qEzx Gsp mzzGFGElC otFGEtmHGtzy-
=[? ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
—’K( ˆ s’K(j β— tF
Gtzy <
0
P <’K(fl ˆ ”s’K(j ’Sj S(}0 s’K(fl = σ
Fp”— —, ’]-?(
Ty Gsp GzC EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp ]-= Jp slIp CwzGGpo <—’K( ± %,–[ ± Fp”—
P <’K(fl-
itynp %-–[ tF Gsp –fi-40 CztyG zq Gsp FGlyolEo yzExlw otFGEtmHGtzy+ GspFp
EpCEpFpyG lCCEzKtxlGp %$$ } = × =,40 ˆ –40 CztyGJtFp nzyöpynp mlyoF
qzE <’K(-
SpEp tF szJ Jp nzHwo lCCwA Gsp mzzGFGElC ty GstF pKlxCwp- bp oElJ M
olGlFpGF plns zq FtBp Y ˆ 4$ JtGs EpCwlnpxpyG qEzx zHE GEltytyr olGl+ Gsp
FlxCwtyr HytG mptyr Gsp CltE Bt ˆ ’Kt W At (- jz plns mzzGFGElC olGlFpG e{
Jp ¨G l nHmtn FCwtyp <—{ ’K(: Gsp ¨GF qEzx Gpy FHns FlxCwpF lEp FszJy ty Gsp
mzGGzx wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp ]-=- kFtyr M ˆ =$$ mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF+ Jp nly
qzEx l –40 CztyGJtFp nzyöpynp mlyo qEzx Gsp CpEnpyGtwpF lG plns K9 Jp
ÿo Gsp =,40 × =$$ ˆ ¨qGs wlErpFG lyo FxlwwpFG IlwHpF lG plns K- jspFp lEp
CwzGGpo ty Gsp mzGGzx EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp ]-=- jsp mlyoF wzzv FtxtwlE Gz
GszFp ty Gsp GzC EtrsG+ mptyr l wtGGwp JtopE lG Gsp pyoCztyGF-
jspEp tF lnGHlwwA l nwzFp nzyypnGtzy mpGJppy Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGpF
’]-=( lyo ’]-“(+ Gsp mzzGFGElC+ lyo xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo- iHCCzFp Jp qHEGspE
lFFHxp GslG Gsp xzopw pEEzEF lEp RlHFFtly+
dˆ <’c( ) ε: ε ∼ Y ’$W σ = (W
∑fi
<’K( ˆ βH sH ’K(, ’]-4(
Hˆ0
jsp mzzGFGElC xpGszo opFnEtmpo lmzIp+ ty Jstns Jp FlxCwp JtGs Ep!

CwlnpxpyG qEzx Gsp GEltytyr olGl+ tF nlwwpo Gsp yzyClElxpGEtn mzzGFGElC-
jstF EplwwA xplyF GslG Gsp xpGszo tF ˜xzopw!qEpp+˙ Ftynp tG HFpF Gsp ElJ
olGl+ yzG l FCpnt¨n ClElxpGEtn xzopw+ Gz rpypElGp ypJ olGlFpGF- NzyFtopE
l IlEtlGtzy zq Gsp mzzGFGElC+ nlwwpo Gsp ClElxpGEtn mzzGFGElC+ ty Jstns Jp
FtxHwlGp ypJ EpFCzyFpF mA lootyr RlHFFtly yztFp Gz Gsp CEpotnGpo IlwHpF9
At{ ˆ <
—’Kt ( ) ε{t : ε{t ∼ Y ’$W σ
— = (: t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y, ’]-[(
jstF CEznpFF tF EpCplGpo M GtxpF+ JspEp M ˆ =$$ FlA- jsp EpFHwGtyr mzzG!
FGElC olGlFpGF slIp Gsp qzEx ’K0 W A0{ (W , , , W ’KY W AY
{
( lyo Jp EpnzxCHGp Gsp
M!FCwtyp FxzzGs zy plns- jsp nzyöpynp mlyoF qEzx GstF xpGszo Jtww pK!
lnGwA pDHlw Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF mlyoF ty Gsp GzC EtrsG Clypw+ lF Gsp yHxmpE zq
mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF rzpF Gz tyÿtGA- L qHynGtzy pFGtxlGpo qEzx l mzzGFGElC
FlxCwp A{ tF rtIpy mA < —{ ’K( ˆ s’K(j ’Sj S(}0 Sj A{ + lyo slF otFGEtmHGtzy
—{ ’K( ∼ Y ’—
< <’K(W s’K(j ’Sj S(}0 s’K(—
σ = (, ’]-fi(
YzGtnp GslG Gsp xply zq GstF otFGEtmHGtzy tF Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF pFGtxlGp+ lyo
Gsp FGlyolEo opItlGtzy tF Gsp Flxp lF Gsp lCCEzKtxlGp qzExHwl ’]-?(-
]-= jsp MzzGFGElC lyo clKtxHx tvpwtszzo cpGszoF =[4
7-1-1 clKtxHx tvpwtszzo TyqpEpynp

TG GHEyF zHG GslG Gsp ClElxpGEtn mzzGFGElC lrEppF JtGs wplFG FDHlEpF ty Gsp
CEpItzHF pKlxCwp mpnlHFp Gsp xzopw ’]-4( slF lootGtIp RlHFFtly pEEzEF- Ty
rpypElw+ Gsp ClElxpGEtn mzzGFGElC lrEppF yzG JtGs wplFG FDHlEpF mHG JtGs
xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo+ Jstns Jp yzJ EpItpJ-
bp mprty mA FCpntqAtyr l CEzmlmtwtGA opyFtGA zE CEzmlmtwtGA xlFF qHynGtzy
qzE zHE zmFpEIlGtzyF
Bt ∼ rθ ’B(, ’]-](
Ty GstF pKCEpFFtzy θ EpCEpFpyGF zyp zE xzEp HyvyzJy ClElxpGpEF GslG rzI!

pEy Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy zq e- jstF tF nlwwpo l ClElxpGEtn xzopw qzE e- LF ly
pKlxCwp+ tq e slF l yzExlw otFGEtmHGtzy JtGs xply < lyo IlEtlynp σ = + Gspy
θ ˆ ’<W σ = (W ’]-–(
lyo
% 0 = =
rθ ’B( ˆ √ p} = WB}<( .σ , ’]-%$(
=πσ
XlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo tF mlFpo zy Gsp wtvpwtszzo qHynGtzy+ rtIpy mA
Y
∏
’θ: e( ˆ rθ ’Bt (W ’]-%%(
tˆ0
Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA zq Gsp zmFpEIpo olGl HyopE Gsp xzopw rθ - jsp wtvpwtszzo tF
opÿpo zywA HC Gz l CzFtGtIp xHwGtCwtpE+ Jstns Jp slIp Glvpy Gz mp zyp-
bp Gstyv zq ’θ: e( lF l qHynGtzy zq θ+ JtGs zHE olGl e ¨Kpo-
OpyzGp Gsp wzrlEtGsx zq ’θ: e( mA
Y
∑
ℓ’θ: e( ˆ ℓ’θ: Bt (
tˆ0
Y
∑
ˆ wzr rθ ’Bt (W ’]-%=(
tˆ0
Jstns Jp Jtww FzxpGtxpF lmmEpItlGp lF ℓ’θ(- jstF pKCEpFFtzy tF nlwwpo Gsp

wzr!wtvpwtszzo+ lyo plns IlwHp ℓ’θ: Bt ( ˆ wzr rθ ’Bt ( tF nlwwpo l wzr!wtvpwtszzo
nzxCzypyG- jsp xpGszo zq xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo nszzFpF Gsp IlwHp θ ˆ θ—
Gz xlKtxtBp ℓ’θ: e(-
jsp wtvpwtszzo qHynGtzy nly mp HFpo Gz lFFpFF Gsp CEpntFtzy zq θ- — bp yppo
l qpJ xzEp opÿtGtzyF- jsp FnzEp qHynGtzy tF opÿpo mA
Y
∑
5 e( ˆ
ℓ’θ: 5 Bt (W
ℓ’θ: ’]-%“(
tˆ0
=[[ ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
5 Bt ( ˆ ∂ℓ’θ: Bt (.∂θ- LFFHxtyr GslG Gsp wtvpwtszzo GlvpF tGF xlKt!

JspEp ℓ’θ:
5 θ:
xHx ty Gsp tyGpEtzE zq Gsp ClElxpGpE FClnp+ ℓ’ — e( ˆ $- jsp tyqzExlGtzy
xlGEtK tF
Y
∑ ∂ = ℓ’θ: Bt (
T’θ( ˆ } , ’]-%?(
tˆ0
∂θ∂θj
— tG tF zqGpy nlwwpo Gsp zmFpEIpo tyqzExlGtzy-

bspy T’θ( tF pIlwHlGpo lG θ ˆ θ+
jsp QtFspE tyqzExlGtzy ’zE pKCpnGpo tyqzExlGtzy( tF
t’θ( ˆ Pθ ”T’θ(fl, ’]-%4(
QtylwwA+ wpG θ$ opyzGp Gsp GEHp IlwHp zq θ-

L FGlyolEo EpFHwG FlAF GslG Gsp FlxCwtyr otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp xlKtxHx
wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGzE slF l wtxtGtyr yzExlw otFGEtmHGtzy
θ— → Y ’θ$ W t’θ$ (}0 (W ’]-%[(
lF Y → ∞- SpEp Jp lEp tyopCpyopyGwA FlxCwtyr qEzx rθ$ ’B(- jstF FHrrpFGF

GslG Gsp FlxCwtyr otFGEtmHGtzy zq θ— xlA mp lCCEzKtxlGpo mA
— t’θ(
Y ’θW — }0 ( zE Y ’θW
— T’θ(
— }0 (W ’]-%fi(
JspEp θ— EpCEpFpyGF Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp qEzx Gsp zmFpEIpo

olGl-
jsp nzEEpFCzyotyr pFGtxlGpF qzE Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzEF zq θ—H lEp zmGltypo
qEzx
4 4
— }0
t’θ( lyo — }0 ,
T’θ( ’]-%](
HH HH
Nzyöpynp CztyGF qzE θH nly mp nzyFGEHnGpo qEzx ptGspE lCCEzKtxlGtzy

ty ’]-%fi(- iHns l nzyöpynp CztyG slF Gsp qzEx
4 4
θ—H } B W0}α( ± t’θ(
— }0
HH zE θ—H } B W0}α( ± T’θ(
— }0 W
HH
EpFCpnGtIpwA+ JspEp B W0}α( tF Gsp % } α CpEnpyGtwp zq Gsp FGlyolEo yzExlw

otFGEtmHGtzy- XzEp lnnHElGp nzyöpynp tyGpEIlwF nly mp opEtIpo qEzx Gsp
wtvpwtszzo qHynGtzy+ mA HFtyr Gsp nst!FDHlEpo lCCEzKtxlGtzy
— } ℓ’θ$ (fl ∼ χ= W
=”ℓ’θ( ’]-%–(
C
JspEp C tF Gsp yHxmpE zq nzxCzypyGF ty θ- jsp EpFHwGtyr % } =α nzy¨!

— } ℓ’θ$ (fl ≤ χ= W0}=α( +
opynp tyGpEIlw tF Gsp FpG zq lww θ$ FHns GslG =”ℓ’θ( C
W0}=α(
JspEp χ=C tF Gsp % } =α CpEnpyGtwp zq Gsp nst!FDHlEpo otFGEtmHGtzy JtGs
C oprEppF zq qEppozx-
]-“ MlApFtly cpGszoF =[fi
pG&F EpGHEy Gz zHE FxzzGstyr pKlxCwp Gz Fpp JslG xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo

AtpwoF- jsp ClElxpGpEF lEp θ ˆ ’βW σ = (- jsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo tF
Y
Y % ∑
ℓ’θ( ˆ } wzr σ = =π } = ’At } s’Kt (j β(= , ’]-=$(
= =σ tˆ0
jsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp tF zmGltypo mA FpGGtyr ∂ℓ.∂β ˆ $ lyo

∂ℓ.∂σ = ˆ $+ rtItyr
β— ˆ ’Sj S(}0 Sj AW
% ∑ ’]-=%(
—= ˆ
σ —’Kt ((= W
’At } <
Y
Jstns lEp Gsp Flxp lF Gsp HFHlw pFGtxlGpF rtIpy ty ’]-=( lyo mpwzJ ’]-“(-
jsp tyqzExlGtzy xlGEtK qzE θ ˆ ’βW σ = ( tF mwznv!otlrzylw+ lyo Gsp mwznv
nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz β tF
T’β( ˆ ’Sj S(.σ = W ’]-==(
Fz GslG Gsp pFGtxlGpo IlEtlynp ’Sj S(}0 σ
— = lrEppF JtGs Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF
pFGtxlGp ’]-“(-
7-1-“ MzzGFGElC IpEFHF clKtxHx tvpwtszzo

Ty pFFpynp Gsp mzzGFGElC tF l nzxCHGpE txCwpxpyGlGtzy zq yzyClElxpGEtn zE
ClElxpGEtn xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo- jsp loIlyGlrp zq Gsp mzzGFGElC zIpE Gsp
xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo qzExHwl tF GslG tG lwwzJF HF Gz nzxCHGp xlKtxHx wtvp!
wtszzo pFGtxlGpF zq FGlyolEo pEEzEF lyo zGspE DHlyGtGtpF ty FpGGtyrF JspEp
yz qzExHwlF lEp lIltwlmwp-
Ty zHE pKlxCwp+ FHCCzFp GslG Jp lolCGtIpwA nszzFp mA nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy
Gsp yHxmpE lyo CzFtGtzy zq Gsp vyzGF GslG opÿp Gsp M!FCwtypF+ ElGspE
Gsly ¨K Gspx ty loIlynp- OpyzGp mA λ Gsp nzwwpnGtzy zq vyzGF lyo GsptE
CzFtGtzyF- jspy Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzEF lyo nzyöpynp mlyoF FszHwo lnnzHyG
qzE Gsp lolCGtIp nsztnp zq λ+ mHG GspEp tF yz JlA Gz oz GstF lylwAGtnlwwA-
btGs Gsp mzzGFGElC+ Jp nzxCHGp Gsp M!FCwtyp FxzzGs JtGs ly lolCGtIp
nsztnp zq vyzGF qzE plns mzzGFGElC FlxCwp- jsp CpEnpyGtwpF zq Gsp EpFHwGtyr
nHEIpF nlCGHEp Gsp IlEtlmtwtGA qEzx mzGs Gsp yztFp ty Gsp GlErpGF lF Jpww lF
— Ty GstF ClEGtnHwlE pKlxCwp Gsp nzyöpynp mlyoF ’yzG FszJy(
GslG qEzx λ-
ozy&G wzzv xHns otΓpEpyG Gsly Gsp ¨Kpo λ mlyoF- MHG ty zGspE CEzmwpxF+
JspEp xzEp lolCGlGtzy tF HFpo+ GstF nly mp ly txCzEGlyG pΓpnG Gz nlCGHEp-
7-“ MlApFtly cpGszoF

Ty Gsp MlApFtly lCCEzlns Gz tyqpEpynp+ Jp FCpntqA l FlxCwtyr xzopw fE’eKθ(
’opyFtGA zE CEzmlmtwtGA xlFF qHynGtzy( qzE zHE olGl rtIpy Gsp ClElxpGpEF+
=[] ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
lyo l CEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy qzE Gsp ClElxpGpEF fE’θ( Ep7pnGtyr zHE vyzJwporp
lmzHG θ mpqzEp Jp Fpp Gsp olGl- bp Gspy nzxCHGp Gsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy
fE’eKθ( ± fE’θ(
fE’θKe( ˆ B W ’]-=“(
fE’eKθ( ± fE’θ(oθ
Jstns EpCEpFpyGF zHE HColGpo vyzJwporp lmzHG θ lqGpE Jp Fpp Gsp olGl- jz
HyopEFGlyo GstF CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy+ zyp xtrsG oElJ FlxCwpF qEzx tG zE
FHxxlEtBp mA nzxCHGtyr tGF xply zE xzop- jsp MlApFtly lCCEzlns otΓpEF
qEzx Gsp FGlyolEo ’˜qEpDHpyGtFG˙( xpGszo qzE tyqpEpynp ty tGF HFp zq l CEtzE
otFGEtmHGtzy Gz pKCEpFF Gsp HynpEGltyGA CEpFpyG mpqzEp Fpptyr Gsp olGl+ lyo
Gz lwwzJ Gsp HynpEGltyGA Epxltytyr lqGpE Fpptyr Gsp olGl Gz mp pKCEpFFpo ty
Gsp qzEx zq l CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy-
jsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy lwFz CEzItopF Gsp mlFtF qzE CEpotnGtyr Gsp IlwHpF
zq l qHGHEp zmFpEIlGtzy B ypk + Itl Gsp CEpotnGtIp otFGEtmHGtzy9
∫
fE’B ypk Ke( ˆ fE’B ypk Kθ( ± fE’θKe(oθ, ’]-=?(
Ty nzyGElFG+ Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo lCCEzlns JzHwo HFp fE’B ypk Kθ(+ —
Gsp olGl opyFtGA pIlwHlGpo lG Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp+ Gz CEpotnG
qHGHEp olGl- kywtvp Gsp CEpotnGtIp otFGEtmHGtzy ’]-=?(+ GstF ozpF yzG lnnzHyG
qzE Gsp HynpEGltyGA ty pFGtxlGtyr θ-
pG&F Jlwv GsEzHrs Gsp MlApFtly lCCEzlns ty zHE FxzzGstyr pKlxCwp-
bp FGlEG JtGs Gsp ClElxpGEtn xzopw rtIpy mA pDHlGtzy ’]-4(+ lyo lFFHxp
qzE Gsp xzxpyG GslG σ = tF vyzJy- bp lFFHxp GslG Gsp zmFpEIpo qplGHEp
IlwHpF K0 W K= W , , , W KY lEp ¨Kpo+ Fz GslG Gsp ElyozxypFF ty Gsp olGl nzxpF
FzwpwA qEzx A IlEAtyr lEzHyo tGF xply <’K(-
jsp Fpnzyo tyrEpotpyG Jp yppo tF l CEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy- OtFGEtmHGtzyF zy
qHynGtzyF lEp qltEwA nzxCwpK pyGtGtpF9 zyp lCCEzlns tF Gz HFp l RlHFFtly
CEznpFF CEtzE ty Jstns Jp FCpntqA Gsp CEtzE nzIlEtlynp mpGJppy lyA GJz
qHynGtzy IlwHpF <’K( lyo <’K′ ( ’blsml+ %––$: Yplw+ %––[(-
SpEp Jp Glvp l FtxCwpE EzHGp9 mA nzyFtopEtyr l ÿtGp M!FCwtyp mlFtF qzE
<’K(+ Jp nly tyFGplo CEzItop l CEtzE qzE Gsp nzpffntpyGF β+ lyo GstF txCwtntGwA
opÿpF l CEtzE qzE <’K(- bp nszzFp l RlHFFtly CEtzE npyGpEpo lG BpEz
β ∼ Y ’$W τ :( ’]-=4(
JtGs Gsp nsztnpF zq Gsp CEtzE nzEEpwlGtzy xlGEtK : lyo IlEtlynp τ Gz mp

otFnHFFpo mpwzJ- jsp txCwtntG CEznpFF CEtzE qzE <’K( tF spynp RlHFFtly+
JtGs nzIlEtlynp vpEypw
V’KW K′ ( ˆ nzI”<’K(W <’K′ (fl

ˆ τ ± s’K(j :s’K′ (, ’]-=[(
]-“ MlApFtly cpGszoF =[–
3
2
1
<’K(
0
-1
-2
-3
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

K
QTRIFD 7W2W ixzzGstyr pKlxCwp9 jpy oElJF qEzx Gsp RlHFFtly CEtzE otFGEt,
mHGtzy qzE Gsp qHynGtzy <’K(-
jsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy qzE β tF lwFz RlHFFtly+ JtGs xply lyo nzIlEtlynp
9 )}0
σ = }0
P’βKe( ˆ Sj S ) : Sj AW
τ
9 )}0 ’]-=fi(
j σ = }0 =
nzI’βKe( ˆ S S ) : σ W
τ
JtGs Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr CzFGpEtzE IlwHpF qzE <’K(+
9 )}0
σ = }0
P’<’K(Ke( ˆ s’K(j Sj S ) : Sj AW
τ
9 )}0 ’]-=](
′ σ = }0
nzI”<’K(W <’K (Kefl ˆ s’K(j j
S S) : s’K′ (σ = ,
τ
SzJ oz Jp nszzFp Gsp CEtzE nzEEpwlGtzy xlGEtK :¯ Ty Fzxp FpGGtyrF Gsp
CEtzE nly mp nszFpy qEzx FHmupnG xlGGpE vyzJwporp lmzHG Gsp ClElxpGpEF-
SpEp Jp lEp Jtwwtyr Gz FlA Gsp qHynGtzy <’K( FszHwo mp FxzzGs+ lyo slIp
rHlElyGppo GstF mA pKCEpFFtyr < ty l FxzzGs wzJ!otxpyFtzylw mlFtF zq M!
FCwtypF- Spynp Jp nly Glvp Gsp CEtzE nzEEpwlGtzy xlGEtK Gz mp Gsp topyGtGA
: ˆ T- bspy Gsp yHxmpE zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF tF wlErp+ GstF xtrsG yzG mp FHq!
¨ntpyG+ lyo lootGtzylw FxzzGsypFF nly mp pyqzEnpo mA txCzFtyr EpFGEtnGtzyF
zy :: GstF tF pKlnGwA Gsp nlFp JtGs FxzzGstyr FCwtypF ’ipnGtzy 4-]-%(-
QtrHEp ]-“ FszJF Gpy oElJF qEzx Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr CEtzE qzE <’K(- jz
rpypElGp CzFGpEtzE IlwHpF zq Gsp qHynGtzy <’K(+ Jp rpypElGp IlwHpF β ′ qEzx tGF
(fi
CzFGpEtzE ’]-=fi(+ rtItyr nzEEpFCzyotyr CzFGpEtzE IlwHp <′ ’K( ˆ 0 βH′ sH ’K(-
jpy FHns CzFGpEtzE nHEIpF lEp FszJy ty QtrHEp ]-?- jJz otΓpEpyG IlwHpF
JpEp HFpo qzE Gsp CEtzE IlEtlynp τ + % lyo %$$$- YzGtnp szJ FtxtwlE Gsp
EtrsG Clypw wzzvF Gz Gsp mzzGFGElC otFGEtmHGtzy ty Gsp mzGGzx wpqG Clypw
=fi/ ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
τ ˆ% τ ˆ %$$$
• •
5
5
4
4
• •
• • • •• • • • • •• •
3
3
• • • •
<’K(
<’K(
• • • •
2
2
• • • •
• • • •
• •• • • • •• • •
1
1
•
••• •• • •
••• •• •
••• •• •• • ••• •• •• •
• • •• • • ••
0
0
• •
•• • • •• • •
•• ••
-1
-1
• •
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
K K
QTRIFD 7W3W ixzzGstyr pKlxCwp9 jpy oElJF qEzx Gsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy
qzE Gsp qHynGtzy <’K(+ qzE GJz ot;pEpyG IlwHpF zq Gsp CEtzE IlEtlynp τ - jsp CHECwp
nHEIpF lEp Gsp CzFGpEtzE xplyF-
zq QtrHEp ]-= zy Clrp =[“- jstF FtxtwlEtGA tF yz lnntopyG- LF τ → ∞+ Gsp

CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy ’]-=fi( lyo Gsp mzzGFGElC otFGEtmHGtzy ’]-fi( nztyntop-
Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ qzE τ ˆ %+ Gsp CzFGpEtzE nHEIpF <’K( ty Gsp wpqG Clypw
zq QtrHEp ]-? lEp FxzzGspE Gsly Gsp mzzGFGElC nHEIpF+ mpnlHFp Jp slIp
txCzFpo xzEp CEtzE JptrsG zy FxzzGsypFF-
jsp otFGEtmHGtzy ’]-=4( JtGs τ → ∞ tF nlwwpo l yzytyqzExlGtIp CEtzE qzE
θ- Ty RlHFFtly xzopwF+ xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo lyo ClElxpGEtn mzzGFGElC lylw!
AFpF Gpyo Gz lrEpp JtGs MlApFtly lylwAFpF GslG HFp l yzytyqzExlGtIp CEtzE
qzE Gsp qEpp ClElxpGpEF- jspFp Gpyo Gz lrEpp+ mpnlHFp JtGs l nzyFGlyG CEtzE+
Gsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy tF CEzCzEGtzylw Gz Gsp wtvpwtszzo- jstF nzEEpFCzy!
opynp lwFz pKGpyoF Gz Gsp yzyClElxpGEtn nlFp+ JspEp Gsp yzyClElxpGEtn
mzzGFGElC lCCEzKtxlGpF l yzytyqzExlGtIp MlApF lylwAFtF: ipnGtzy ]-? slF
Gsp opGltwF-
bp slIp+ szJpIpE+ ozyp Fzxp GstyrF GslG lEp yzG CEzCpE qEzx l MlApFtly
CztyG zq ItpJ- bp slIp HFpo l yzytyqzExlGtIp ’nzyFGlyG( CEtzE qzE σ = lyo
EpCwlnpo tG JtGs Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp σ — = ty Gsp CzFGpEtzE- L
xzEp FGlyolEo MlApFtly lylwAFtF JzHwo lwFz CHG l CEtzE zy σ ’GACtnlwwA
r’σ( ∝ %.σ(+ nlwnHwlGp l uztyG CzFGpEtzE qzE <’K( lyo σ+ lyo Gspy tyGprElGp
zHG σ+ ElGspE Gsly uHFG pKGElnG Gsp xlKtxHx zq Gsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy
’˜XLf˙ pFGtxlGp(-
]-? hpwlGtzyFstC MpGUppy Gsp MzzGFGElC lyo MlApFtly TyqpEpynp =fi%
7-? hpwlGtzyFstC MpGUppy Gsp MzzGFGElC lyo

MlApFtly TyqpEpynp
NzyFtopE ËFG l IpEA FtxCwp pKlxCwp+ ty Jstns Jp zmFpEIp l Ftyrwp zmFpE!
IlGtzy B qEzx l yzExlw otFGEtmHGtzy
B ∼ Y ’θW %(, ’]-=–(
jz nlEEA zHG l MlApFtly lylwAFtF qzE θ+ Jp yppo Gz FCpntqA l CEtzE- jsp

xzFG nzyIpytpyG lyo nzxxzy nsztnp JzHwo mp θ ∼ Y ’$W τ ( rtItyr CzFGpEtzE
otFGEtmHGtzy
9 )
B %
θKB ∼ Y W , ’]-“$(
% ) %.τ % ) %.τ
YzJ Gsp wlErpE Jp Glvp τ + Gsp xzEp nzynpyGElGpo Gsp CzFGpEtzE mpnzxpF
lEzHyo Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp θ— ˆ B- Ty Gsp wtxtG lF τ → ∞ Jp
zmGlty l yzytyqzExlGtIp ’nzyFGlyG( CEtzE+ lyo Gsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy tF
θKB ∼ Y ’BW %(, ’]-“%(
jstF tF Gsp Flxp lF l ClElxpGEtn mzzGFGElC otFGEtmHGtzy ty Jstns Jp rpy!

pElGp mzzGFGElC IlwHpF B { qEzx Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp zq Gsp
FlxCwtyr opyFtGA Y ’BW %(-
jspEp lEp GsEpp tyrEpotpyGF GslG xlvp GstF nzEEpFCzyopynp JzEv9
%- jsp nsztnp zq yzytyqzExlGtIp CEtzE qzE θ-
=- jsp opCpyopynp zq Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo ℓ’θ: e( zy Gsp olGl e zywA

— Spynp Jp nly JEtGp Gsp
GsEzHrs Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp θ-
—
wzr!wtvpwtszzo lF ℓ’θ: θ(-
— GslG tF+ ℓ’θ: θ(
“- jsp FAxxpGEA zq Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo ty θ lyo θ+ — ˆ
—
ℓ’θ: θ( ) nzyFGlyG-
fEzCpEGtpF ’=( lyo ’“( pFFpyGtlwwA zywA szwo qzE Gsp RlHFFtly otFGEtmH!
Gtzy- SzJpIpE+ GspA lwFz szwo lCCEzKtxlGpwA qzE Gsp xHwGtyzxtlw otFGEtmH!
Gtzy+ wplotyr Gz l nzEEpFCzyopynp mpGJppy Gsp yzyClElxpGEtn mzzGFGElC
lyo MlApF tyqpEpynp+ Jstns Jp zHGwtyp ypKG-
LFFHxp GslG Jp slIp l otFnEpGp FlxCwp FClnp JtGs nlGprzEtpF- pG JH mp
Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA GslG l FlxCwp CztyG qlwwF ty nlGprzEA u+ lyo J—H Gsp zmFpEIpo
CEzCzEGtzy ty nlGprzEA u- pG J ˆ ’J0 W J= W , , , W J (W J
— ˆ ’J
—0 W J
—= W , , , W J
— (-
OpyzGp zHE pFGtxlGzE mA i’J(: — Glvp lF l CEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy qzE J l FAx!
xpGEtn OtEtnswpG otFGEtmHGtzy JtGs ClElxpGpE l9
J ∼ Ot ’l%(W ’]-“=(
=fi= ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
M
GslG tF+ Gsp CEtzE CEzmlmtwtGA xlFF qHynGtzy tF CEzCzEGtzylw Gz ℓˆ0 Jℓl}0 -
jspy Gsp CzFGpEtzE opyFtGA zq J tF
J ∼ Ot ’l% ) Y J(W
— ’]-““(
JspEp Y tF Gsp FlxCwp FtBp- pGGtyr l → $ Gz zmGlty l yzytyqzExlGtIp CEtzE

rtIpF
J ∼ Ot ’Y J(,
— ’]-“?(
YzJ Gsp mzzGFGElC otFGEtmHGtzy+ zmGltypo mA FlxCwtyr JtGs EpCwlnpxpyG

qEzx Gsp olGl+ nly mp pKCEpFFpo lF FlxCwtyr Gsp nlGprzEA CEzCzEGtzyF qEzx
l xHwGtyzxtlw otFGEtmHGtzy- iCpnt¨nlwwA+
— { ∼ XHwG’YW J(W
YJ — ’]-“4(
JspEp XHwG’YW J( — opyzGpF l xHwGtyzxtlw otFGEtmHGtzy+ slItyr CEzmlmtwtGA

$ Y
% M Y J1ℓ∗
xlFF qHynGtzy Y J1 ∗ W,,,WY J
1 ∗ J
—ℓ - jstF otFGEtmHGtzy tF FtxtwlE Gz Gsp CzF!
0
GpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy lmzIp+ slItyr Gsp Flxp FHCCzEG+ Flxp xply+ lyo yplEwA
Gsp Flxp nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK- Spynp Gsp mzzGFGElC otFGEtmHGtzy zq i’J — { ( Jtww
nwzFpwA lCCEzKtxlGp Gsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy zq i’J(-
Ty GstF FpyFp+ Gsp mzzGFGElC otFGEtmHGtzy EpCEpFpyGF ly ’lCCEzKtxlGp(
yzyClElxpGEtn+ yzytyqzExlGtIp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy qzE zHE ClElxpGpE-
MHG GstF mzzGFGElC otFGEtmHGtzy tF zmGltypo CltywpFFwA1JtGszHG slItyr Gz
qzExlwwA FCpntqA l CEtzE lyo JtGszHG slItyr Gz FlxCwp qEzx Gsp CzFGpEtzE
otFGEtmHGtzy- Spynp Jp xtrsG Gstyv zq Gsp mzzGFGElC otFGEtmHGtzy lF l ˜CzzE
xly&F˙ MlApF CzFGpEtzE- MA CpEGHEmtyr Gsp olGl+ Gsp mzzGFGElC lCCEzKt!
xlGpF Gsp MlApFtly pΓpnG zq CpEGHEmtyr Gsp ClElxpGpEF+ lyo tF GACtnlwwA
xHns FtxCwpE Gz nlEEA zHG-
7-4 jsp Pc LwrzEtGsx

jsp PX lwrzEtGsx tF l CzCHwlE Gzzw qzE FtxCwtqAtyr otffnHwG xlKtxHx
wtvpwtszzo CEzmwpxF- bp ËFG opFnEtmp tG ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq l FtxCwp xtKGHEp
xzopw-
7-4-0 jJz,NzxCzypyG ctKGHEp czopw

Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp opFnEtmp l FtxCwp xtKGHEp xzopw qzE opyFtGA pFGtxlGtzy+
lyo Gsp lFFzntlGpo PX lwrzEtGsx qzE nlEEAtyr zHG xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo
pFGtxlGtzy- jstF slF l ylGHElw nzyypnGtzy Gz RtmmF FlxCwtyr xpGszoF qzE
MlApFtly tyqpEpynp- XtKGHEp xzopwF lEp otFnHFFpo lyo opxzyFGElGpo ty FpI!
pElw zGspE ClEGF zq Gsp mzzv+ ty ClEGtnHwlE ipnGtzyF [-]+ %=-fi lyo %“-=-“-
jsp wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp ]-4 FszJF l stFGzrElx zq Gsp =$ ¨nGtGtzHF olGl
CztyGF ty jlmwp ]-%-
]-4 jsp Pc LwrzEtGsx =fi“
1.0
1.0
• •• • •• ••
•
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
density
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
•
• •• • • •• •
0.0
0.0
0 2 4 6 0 2 4 6
y y
QTRIFD 7W4W ctKGHEp pKlxCwp- ’ pqG Clypw9( StFGzrElx zq olGl- ’htrsG Clypw9(
clKtxHx wtvpwtszzo 6G zq RlHFFtly opyFtGtpF ’Fzwto Epo( lyo EpFCzyFtmtwtGA ’ozGGpo
rEppy( zq Gsp wpqG nzxCzypyG opyFtGA qzE zmFpEIlGtzy L+ lF l qHynGtzy zq L-
uLM D 7W0W jJpyGA 6nGtGtzHF olGl CztyGF HFpo ty Gsp GJz,nzxCzypyG xtKGHEp
pKlxCwp ty QtrHEp fl-4-
!$-“– $-%= $-–? %-[fi %-fi[ =-?? “-fi= ?-=] ?-–= 4-4“
$-$[ $-?] %-$% %-[] %-]$ “-=4 ?-%= ?-[$ 4-=] [-==
bp JzHwo wtvp Gz xzopw Gsp opyFtGA zq Gsp olGl CztyGF+ lyo oHp Gz Gsp
lCClEpyG mt!xzolwtGA+ l RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy JzHwo yzG mp lCCEzCEtlGp-
jspEp FppxF Gz mp GJz FpClElGp HyopEwAtyr EprtxpF+ Fz tyFGplo Jp xzopw
d lF l xtKGHEp zq GJz yzExlw otFGEtmHGtzyF9
d0 ∼ Y ’<0 W σ0= (W
d= ∼ Y ’<= W σ== (W ’]-“[(
d ˆ ’% } ∆( ± d0 ) ∆ ± d= W
JspEp ∆ ∈ ·$W %• JtGs fE’∆ ˆ %( ˆ π- jstF rpypElGtIp EpCEpFpyGlGtzy tF
pKCwtntG9 rpypElGp l ∆ ∈ ·$W %• JtGs CEzmlmtwtGA π+ lyo Gspy opCpyotyr zy
Gsp zHGnzxp+ opwtIpE ptGspE d0 zE d= - pG φθ ’K( opyzGp Gsp yzExlw opyFtGA
JtGs ClElxpGpEF θ ˆ ’<W σ = (- jspy Gsp opyFtGA zq d tF
rd ’A( ˆ ’% } π(φθ0 ’A( ) πφθ= ’A(, ’]-“fi(
YzJ FHCCzFp Jp JtFs Gz ¨G GstF xzopw Gz Gsp olGl ty QtrHEp ]-4 mA xlKt!
xHx wtvpwtszzo- jsp ClElxpGpEF lEp
θ ˆ ’πW θ0 W θ= ( ˆ ’πW <0 W σ0= W <= W σ== (, ’]-“](
jsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo mlFpo zy Gsp Y GEltytyr nlFpF tF
Y
∑
ℓ’θ: e( ˆ wzr”’% } π(φθ0 ’At ( ) πφθ= ’At (fl, ’]-“–(
tˆ0
=fi? ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
OtEpnG xlKtxtBlGtzy zq ℓ’θ: e( tF DHtGp otffnHwG yHxpEtnlwwA+ mpnlHFp zq

Gsp FHx zq GpExF tyFtop Gsp wzrlEtGsx- jspEp tF+ szJpIpE+ l FtxCwpE lC!
CEzlns- bp nzyFtopE HyzmFpEIpo wlGpyG IlEtlmwpF ∆t Glvtyr IlwHpF $ zE % lF
ty ’]-“[(9 tq ∆t ˆ % Gspy dt nzxpF qEzx xzopw =+ zGspEJtFp tG nzxpF qEzx
xzopw %- iHCCzFp Jp vypJ Gsp IlwHpF zq Gsp ∆t &F- jspy Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo
JzHwo mp
Y
∑
ℓ$ ’θ: eW ∆( ˆ ”’% } ∆t ( wzr φθ0 ’At ( ) ∆t wzr φθ= ’At (fl
tˆ0
Y
∑
) ”’% } ∆t ( wzr’% } π( ) ∆t wzr πfl W ’]-?$(
tˆ0
lyo Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGpF zq <0 lyo σ0= JzHwo mp Gsp FlxCwp
xply lyo IlEtlynp qzE GszFp olGl JtGs ∆t ˆ $+ lyo FtxtwlEwA GszFp qzE <=
lyo σ== JzHwo mp Gsp FlxCwp xply lyo IlEtlynp zq Gsp olGl JtGs ∆t ˆ %-
jsp pFGtxlGp zq π JzHwo mp Gsp CEzCzEGtzy zq ∆t ˆ %-
itynp Gsp IlwHpF zq Gsp ∆t &F lEp lnGHlwwA HyvyzJy+ Jp CEznppo ty ly
tGpElGtIp qlFstzy+ FHmFGtGHGtyr qzE plns ∆t ty ’]-?$( tGF pKCpnGpo IlwHp
γt ’θ( ˆ P’∆t KθW e( ˆ fE’∆t ˆ %KθW e(W ’]-?%(
lwFz nlwwpo Gsp EpFCzyFtmtwtGA zq xzopw = qzE zmFpEIlGtzy t- bp HFp l CEznp!
oHEp nlwwpo Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx+ rtIpy ty LwrzEtGsx ]-% qzE Gsp FCpntlw nlFp zq
RlHFFtly xtKGHEpF- Ty Gsp pKCpnGlGtzy FGpC+ Jp oz l FzqG lFFtryxpyG zq plns
zmFpEIlGtzy Gz plns xzopw9 Gsp nHEEpyG pFGtxlGpF zq Gsp ClElxpGpEF lEp HFpo
Gz lFFtry EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF lnnzEotyr Gz Gsp EpwlGtIp opyFtGA zq Gsp GEltytyr
CztyGF HyopE plns xzopw- Ty Gsp xlKtxtBlGtzy FGpC+ GspFp EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF
lEp HFpo ty JptrsGpo xlKtxHx!wtvpwtszzo ¨GF Gz HColGp Gsp pFGtxlGpF zq
Gsp ClElxpGpEF-
L rzzo JlA Gz nzyFGEHnG tytGtlw rHpFFpF qzE < —0 lyo <
—= tF FtxCwA Gz nszzFp
GJz zq Gsp At lG Elyozx- MzGs σ —0= lyo σ
—== nly mp FpG pDHlw Gz Gsp zIpElww
(Y
FlxCwp IlEtlynp tˆ0 ’At } A3(= .Y - jsp xtKtyr CEzCzEGtzy π — nly mp FGlEGpo
lG Gsp IlwHp $,4-
YzGp GslG Gsp lnGHlw xlKtxtBpE zq Gsp wtvpwtszzo znnHEF Jspy Jp CHG l
FCtvp zq tyÿtGp sptrsG lG lyA zyp olGl CztyG+ GslG tF+ < —0 ˆ At qzE Fzxp
t lyo σ—0= ˆ $- jstF rtIpF tyÿtGp wtvpwtszzo+ mHG tF yzG l HFpqHw FzwHGtzy-
Spynp Jp lEp lnGHlwwA wzzvtyr qzE l rzzo wznlw xlKtxHx zq Gsp wtvpwtszzo+
zyp qzE Jstns σ —0= W σ
—== / $- jz qHEGspE nzxCwtnlGp xlGGpEF+ GspEp nly mp
xzEp Gsly zyp wznlw xlKtxHx slItyr σ —0= W σ
—== / $- Ty zHE pKlxCwp+ Jp
Ely Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx JtGs l yHxmpE zq otΓpEpyG tytGtlw rHpFFpF qzE Gsp
ClElxpGpEF+ lww slItyr σ —v= / $,4+ lyo nszFp Gsp EHy GslG rlIp HF Gsp strspFG
xlKtxtBpo wtvpwtszzo- QtrHEp ]-[ FszJF Gsp CEzrEpFF( zq Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx ty
xlKtxtBtyr Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo- jlmwp ]-= FszJF π — ˆ t γ—t .Y + Gsp xlKtxHx
wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp zq Gsp CEzCzEGtzy zq zmFpEIlGtzyF ty nwlFF =+ lG FpwpnGpo
tGpElGtzyF zq Gsp PX CEznpoHEp-
]-4 jsp Pc LwrzEtGsx =fi4
LwrzEtGsx 7-0 PX LwrzEtGsx qzE jJz,nzxCzypyG RlHFFtly XtKGHEp-

%- jlvp tytGtlw rHpFFpF qzE Gsp ClElxpGpEF < —0= W <
—0 W σ —== W π
—= W σ — ’Fpp GpKG(-
=- PKCpnGlGtzy iGpC9 nzxCHGp Gsp EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF
π
— φθ1= ’At (
γ—t ˆ W t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y, ’]-?=(
’% } π
— (φθ10 ’At ( ) π
— φθ1= ’At (
“- XlKtxtBlGtzy iGpC9 nzxCHGp Gsp JptrsGpo xplyF lyo IlEtlynpF9

(Y (Y
’% } γ—t (At tˆ0 ’% } γ —t (’At } < —0 (=
—0 ˆ (tˆ0
< Y
W —0= ˆ
σ (Y W
tˆ0 ’% } γ —t ( tˆ0 ’% } γ —t (
(Y (Y
γ—t At tˆ0 γ—t ’At } <—= (=
—= ˆ (tˆ0
< Y
W —== ˆ
σ (Y W
tˆ0 γ —t tˆ0 γ —t
(Y
lyo Gsp xtKtyr CEzmlmtwtGA π
—ˆ tˆ0 γ—t .Y -
?- TGpElGp FGpCF = lyo “ HyGtw nzyIpErpynp-
uLM D 7W1W ipwpnGpo tGpElGtzyF zq Gsp Pc lwrzEtGsx qzE xtKGHEp pKlxCwp-

TGpElGtzy π
—
% $-?]4
4 $-?–“
%$ $-4=“
%4 $-4??
=$ $-4?[
jsp ÿlw xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGpF lEp
<
—0 ˆ ?,[=W —0= ˆ $,]fiW
σ
<
—= ˆ %,$[W —== ˆ $,fifiW
σ
π
— ˆ $,4?[,
jsp EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp ]-4 FszJF Gsp pFGtxlGpo RlHFFtly xtKGHEp opyFtGA
qEzx GstF CEznpoHEp ’Fzwto Epo nHEIp(+ lwzyr JtGs Gsp EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF ’ozGGpo
rEppy nHEIp(- YzGp GslG xtKGHEpF lEp lwFz HFpqHw qzE FHCpEItFpo wplEytyr: ty
ipnGtzy [-fi Jp FszJ szJ Gsp RlHFFtly xtKGHEp xzopw wploF Gz l IpEFtzy zq
Elotlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF-
=fi[ ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
-39
o o o o o o o o o o o
o
Observed Data Log-likelihood

o
-40
o
-41
o
o
o o
-42
o
-43
-44
o
5 10 15 20
Iteration
QTRIFD 7W5W Pc lwrzEtGsx9 zmFpEIpo olGl wzr,wtvpwtszzo lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp

tGpElGtzy yHxmpE-
7-4-1 jsp Pc LwrzEtGsx ty RpypElw

jsp lmzIp CEznpoHEp tF ly pKlxCwp zq Gsp PX ’zE MlHx8bpwns( lwrzEtGsx
qzE xlKtxtBtyr wtvpwtszzoF ty npEGlty nwlFFpF zq CEzmwpxF- jspFp CEzmwpxF
lEp zypF qzE Jstns xlKtxtBlGtzy zq Gsp wtvpwtszzo tF otffnHwG+ mHG xlop
plFtpE mA pywlErtyr Gsp FlxCwp JtGs wlGpyG ’HyzmFpEIpo( olGl- jstF tF nlwwpo
olGl lHrxpyGlGtzy- SpEp Gsp wlGpyG olGl lEp Gsp xzopw xpxmpEFstCF ∆t -
Ty zGspE CEzmwpxF+ Gsp wlGpyG olGl lEp lnGHlw olGl GslG FszHwo slIp mppy
zmFpEIpo mHG lEp xtFFtyr-
LwrzEtGsx ]-= rtIpF Gsp rpypElw qzExHwlGtzy zq Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx- ZHE
zmFpEIpo olGl tF e+ slItyr wzr!wtvpwtszzo ℓ’θ: e( opCpyotyr zy ClElxpGpEF
θ- jsp wlGpyG zE xtFFtyr olGl tF ex + Fz GslG Gsp nzxCwpGp olGl tF u ˆ
’eW ex ( JtGs wzr!wtvpwtszzo ℓ$ ’θ: u(+ ℓ$ mlFpo zy Gsp nzxCwpGp opyFtGA- Ty
Gsp xtKGHEp CEzmwpx ’eW ex ( ˆ ’AW ∆(+ lyo ℓ$ ’θ: u( tF rtIpy ty ’]-?$(-
Ty zHE xtKGHEp pKlxCwp+ P’ℓ$ ’θ′ : u(KeW θ—WH( ( tF FtxCwA ’]-?$( JtGs Gsp ∆t
— lyo Gsp xlKtxtBpEF ty FGpC “ lEp uHFG
EpCwlnpo mA Gsp EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF γ—t ’θ(+
JptrsGpo xplyF lyo IlEtlynpF-
bp yzJ rtIp ly pKCwlylGtzy zq JsA Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx JzEvF ty rpypElw-
itynp
fE’ex W eKθ′ (
fE’ex KeW θ′ ( ˆ W ’]-??(
fE’eKθ′ (
Jp nly JEtGp
fE’uKθ′ (
fE’eKθ′ ( ˆ , ’]-?4(
fE’ex KeW θ′ (
Ty GpExF zq wzr!wtvpwtszzoF+ Jp slIp ℓ’θ′ : e( ˆ ℓ$ ’θ′ : u(}ℓ0 ’θ′ : ex Ke(+ JspEp
ℓ0 tF mlFpo zy Gsp nzyotGtzylw opyFtGA fE’ex KeW θ′ (- jlvtyr nzyotGtzylw
pKCpnGlGtzyF JtGs EpFCpnG Gz Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy zq uKe rzIpEypo mA ClElxpGpE
θ rtIpF
ℓ’θ′ : e( ˆ P”ℓ$ ’θ′ : u(KeW θfl } P”ℓ0 ’θ′ : ex Ke(KeW θfl
]-4 jsp Pc LwrzEtGsx =fifi
LwrzEtGsx 7-ˆ jsp PX LwrzEtGsx-

%- iGlEG JtGs tytGtlw rHpFFpF qzE Gsp ClElxpGpEF θ—W$( -
=- PKCpnGlGtzy iGpC9 lG Gsp uGs FGpC+ nzxCHGp
g’θ′ W θ—WH( ( ˆ P’ℓ$ ’θ′ : u(KeW θ—WH( ( ’]-?“(
lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp oHxxA lErHxpyG θ′ -
“- XlKtxtBlGtzy iGpC9 opGpExtyp Gsp ypJ pFGtxlGp θ—WH)0( lF Gsp xlKt!

xtBpE zq g’θ′ W θ—WH( ( zIpE θ′ -
?- TGpElGp FGpCF = lyo “ HyGtw nzyIpErpynp-
≡ g’θ′ W θ( } h’θ′ W θ(, ’]-?[(
Ty Gsp X FGpC+ Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx xlKtxtBpF g’θ′ W θ( zIpE θ′ + ElGspE Gsly

Gsp lnGHlw zmupnGtIp qHynGtzy ℓ’θ′ : e(- bsA ozpF tG FHnnppo ty xlKtxtBtyr
ℓ’θ′ : e(¯ YzGp GslG h’θ{ W θ( tF Gsp pKCpnGlGtzy zq l wzr!wtvpwtszzo zq l opyFtGA
’tyopKpo mA θ{ (+ JtGs EpFCpnG Gz Gsp Flxp opyFtGA tyopKpo mA θ+ lyo spynp
’mA UpyFpy&F typDHlwtGA( tF xlKtxtBpo lF l qHynGtzy zq θ{ + Jspy θ{ ˆ θ ’Fpp
PKpEntFp ]-%(- iz tq θ′ xlKtxtBpF g’θ′ W θ(+ Jp Fpp GslG
ℓ’θ′ : e( } ℓ’θ: e( ˆ ”g’θ′ W θ( } g’θW θ(fl } ”h’θ′ W θ( } h’θW θ(fl

≥ $, ’]-?fi(
Spynp Gsp PX tGpElGtzy ypIpE opnEplFpF Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo-

jstF lErHxpyG lwFz xlvpF tG nwplE GslG l qHww xlKtxtBlGtzy ty Gsp X
FGpC tF yzG ypnpFFlEA9 Jp yppo zywA Gz ÿo l IlwHp θ—WH)0( Fz GslG g’θ′ W θ—WH( (
tynEplFpF lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp ËFG lErHxpyG+ GslG tF+ g’θ—WH)0( W θ—WH( ( /
g’θ—WH( W θ—WH( (- iHns CEznpoHEpF lEp nlwwpo RPX &rpypElwtBpo PX( lwrzEtGsxF-
jsp PX lwrzEtGsx nly lwFz mp ItpJpo lF l xtyzEtBlGtzy CEznpoHEp9 Fpp
PKpEntFp ]-fi-
7-4-“ Pc lF l clKtxtBlGtzy8clKtxtBlGtzy fEznpoHEp

SpEp tF l otΓpEpyG ItpJ zq Gsp PX CEznpoHEp+ lF l uztyG xlKtxtBlGtzy
lwrzEtGsx- NzyFtopE Gsp qHynGtzy
Q ’θ′ W f2 ( ˆ Pf2 ”ℓ$ ’θ′ : u(fl } Pf2 ”wzr f2 ’ex (fl, ’]-?](
SpEp f2 ’ex ( tF lyA otFGEtmHGtzy zIpE Gsp wlGpyG olGl ex - Ty Gsp xtKGHEp
pKlxCwp+ f2 ’ex ( nzxCEtFpF Gsp FpG zq CEzmlmtwtGtpF γt ˆ fE’∆t ˆ %KθW e(-
YzGp GslG Q pIlwHlGpo lG f2 ’ex ( ˆ fE’ex KeW θ′ (+ tF Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo zq
=fi] ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
4
3 0.3 0.1
Model Parameters
0.7 0.5
0.9
E M
2
E
1
0
1 2 3 4 5
Latent Data Parameters
QTRIFD 7W6W clKtxtBlGtzy8xlKtxtBlGtzy ItpJ zq Gsp Pc lwrzEtGsx- iszJy

lEp Gsp nzyGzHEF zq Gsp ’lHrxpyGpo( zmFpEIpo olGl wzr,wtvpwtszzo g ’θ′ W f2 (- jsp
P FGpC tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz xlKtxtBtyr Gsp wzr,wtvpwtszzo zIpE Gsp ClElxpGpEF zq Gsp
wlGpyG olGl otFGEtmHGtzy- jsp X FGpC xlKtxtBpF tG zIpE Gsp ClElxpGpEF zq Gsp
wzr,wtvpwtszzo- jsp Epo nHEIp nzEEpFCzyoF Gz Gsp zmFpEIpo olGl wzr,wtvpwtszzo+ l
CEz6wp zmGltypo mA xlKtxtBtyr g ’θ′ W f2 ( qzE plns IlwHp zq θ′ -
Gsp zmFpEIpo olGl+ qEzx ’]-?[(0 - jsp qHynGtzy Q pKClyoF Gsp ozxlty zq
Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo+ Gz qlntwtGlGp tGF xlKtxtBlGtzy-
jsp PX lwrzEtGsx nly mp ItpJpo lF l uztyG xlKtxtBlGtzy xpGszo qzE Q
zIpE θ′ lyo f2 ’ex (+ mA ¨Ktyr zyp lErHxpyG lyo xlKtxtBtyr zIpE Gsp zGspE-
jsp xlKtxtBpE zIpE f2 ’ex ( qzE ¨Kpo θ′ nly mp FszJy Gz mp
f2 ’ex ( ˆ fE’ex KeW θ′ ( ’]-?–(
’PKpEntFp ]-=(- jstF tF Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy nzxCHGpo mA Gsp P FGpC+ qzE pKlxCwp+
’]-?=( ty Gsp xtKGHEp pKlxCwp- Ty Gsp X FGpC+ Jp xlKtxtBp Q ’θ′ W f2 ( zIpE θ′
JtGs f2 ¨Kpo9 GstF tF Gsp Flxp lF xlKtxtBtyr Gsp ËFG GpEx Pf2 ”ℓ$ ’θ′ : u(KeW θfl
Ftynp Gsp Fpnzyo GpEx ozpF yzG tyIzwIp θ′ -
QtylwwA+ Ftynp Q ’θ′ W f2 ( lyo Gsp zmFpEIpo olGl wzr!wtvpwtszzo lrEpp Jspy
2
f ’ex ( ˆ fE’ex KeW θ′ (+ xlKtxtBlGtzy zq Gsp qzExpE lnnzxCwtFspF xlKt!
xtBlGtzy zq Gsp wlGGpE- QtrHEp ]-fi FszJF l FnspxlGtn ItpJ zq GstF CEznpFF-
jstF ItpJ zq Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx wploF Gz lwGpEylGtIp xlKtxtBlGtzy CEznp!
0 ’]-3[( szwoF qzE lww θ) tynwHotyr θ ˆ θ′ -

]-[ cNcN qzE ilxCwtyr qEzx Gsp fzFGpEtzE =fi–
LwrzEtGsx 7-2 RtmmF ilxCwpE-

W$(
%- jlvp Fzxp tytGtlw IlwHpF kv W v ˆ %W =W , , , W V-
=- hpCplG qzE G ˆ %W =W , , , W , 9
WG(
QzE v ˆ %W =W , , , W V rpypElGp kv qEzx
WG( WG( WG( WG}0( WG}0(
fE’kv Kk0 W , , , W kv}0 W kv)0 W , , , W kV (,
WG( WG( WG(
“- NzyGtyHp FGpC = HyGtw Gsp uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy zq ’k0 W k= W , , , W kV (
ozpF yzG nslyrp-
oHEpF- QzE pKlxCwp+ zyp ozpF yzG yppo Gz xlKtxtBp JtGs EpFCpnG Gz lww zq
Gsp wlGpyG olGl ClElxpGpEF lG zynp+ mHG nzHwo tyFGplo xlKtxtBp zIpE zyp
zq Gspx lG l Gtxp+ lwGpEylGtyr JtGs Gsp X FGpC-
7-” cNcN qzE ilxCwtyr qEzx Gsp fzFGpEtzE

SlItyr opÿpo l MlApFtly xzopw+ zyp JzHwo wtvp Gz oElJ FlxCwpF qEzx
Gsp EpFHwGtyr CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy+ ty zEopE Gz xlvp tyqpEpynpF lmzHG Gsp
ClElxpGpEF- PKnpCG qzE FtxCwp xzopwF+ GstF tF zqGpy l otffnHwG nzxCHGl!
Gtzylw CEzmwpx- Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp otFnHFF Gsp XlEvzI nslty XzyGp NlEwz
’XNXN( lCCEzlns Gz CzFGpEtzE FlxCwtyr- bp Jtww Fpp GslG RtmmF FlxCwtyr+
ly XNXN CEznpoHEp+ tF nwzFpwA EpwlGpo Gz Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx9 Gsp xlty otq!
qpEpynp tF GslG tG FlxCwpF qEzx Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzyF ElGspE Gsly
xlKtxtBtyr zIpE Gspx-
NzyFtopE ËFG Gsp qzwwzJtyr lmFGElnG CEzmwpx- bp slIp Elyozx IlEtlmwpF
k0 W k= W , , , W kV lyo Jp JtFs Gz oElJ l FlxCwp qEzx GsptE uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy-
iHCCzFp GstF tF otffnHwG Gz oz+ mHG tG tF plFA Gz FtxHwlGp qEzx Gsp nzyotGtzylw
otFGEtmHGtzyF fE’kH Kk0 W k= W , , , W kH}0 W kH)0 W , , , W kV (W u ˆ %W =W , , , W V- jsp
RtmmF FlxCwtyr CEznpoHEp lwGpEylGtIpwA FtxHwlGpF qEzx plns zq GspFp otFGEt!
mHGtzyF lyo Jspy Gsp CEznpFF FGlmtwtBpF+ CEzItopF l FlxCwp qEzx Gsp opFtEpo
uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy- jsp CEznpoHEp tF opÿpo ty LwrzEtGsx ]-“-
kyopE EprHwlEtGA nzyotGtzyF tG nly mp FszJy GslG GstF CEznpoHEp pIpy!
GHlwwA FGlmtwtBpF+ lyo Gsp EpFHwGtyr Elyozx IlEtlmwpF lEp tyoppo l FlxCwp
qEzx Gsp uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy zq k0 W k= W , , , W kV - jstF znnHEF opFCtGp Gsp qlnG
WG( WG( WG(
GslG Gsp FlxCwpF ’k0 W k= W , , , W kV ( lEp nwplEwA yzG tyopCpyopyG qzE otq!
qpEpyG G- XzEp qzExlwwA+ RtmmF FlxCwtyr CEzoHnpF l XlEvzI nslty JszFp
FGlGtzylEA otFGEtmHGtzy tF Gsp GEHp uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy+ lyo spynp Gsp GpEx
˜XlEvzI nslty XzyGp NlEwz-˙ TG tF yzG FHECEtFtyr GslG Gsp GEHp uztyG otF!
GEtmHGtzy tF FGlGtzylEA HyopE GstF CEznpFF+ lF Gsp FHnnpFFtIp FGpCF wplIp Gsp
xlErtylw otFGEtmHGtzyF zq Gsp kv &F Hynslyrpo-
=]/ ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
YzGp GslG Jp ozy&G yppo Gz vyzJ Gsp pKCwtntG qzEx zq Gsp nzyotGtzylw
opyFtGtpF+ mHG uHFG yppo Gz mp lmwp Gz FlxCwp qEzx Gspx- LqGpE Gsp CEznpoHEp
EplnspF FGlGtzylEtGA+ Gsp xlErtylw opyFtGA zq lyA FHmFpG zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF
nly mp lCCEzKtxlGpo mA l opyFtGA pFGtxlGp lCCwtpo Gz Gsp FlxCwp IlwHpF-
SzJpIpE tq Gsp pKCwtntG qzEx zq Gsp nzyotGtzylw opyFtGA fE’kv W Kkℓ W ℓ 0ˆ v(
tF lIltwlmwp+ l mpGGpE pFGtxlGp zq FlA Gsp xlErtylw opyFtGA zq kv nly mp
zmGltypo qEzx ’PKpEntFp ]-“(9
∑X
Q k ’H( ˆ % WG(
fE v
fE’HKkℓ W ℓ 0ˆ v(, ’]-4$(
’X } x ) %( Gˆx
SpEp Jp slIp lIpElrpo zIpE Gsp wlFG X } x ) % xpxmpEF zq Gsp FpDHpynp+

Gz lwwzJ qzE ly tytGtlw ˜mHEy!ty˙ CpEtzo mpqzEp FGlGtzylEtGA tF Eplnspo-
YzJ rpGGtyr mlnv Gz MlApFtly tyqpEpynp+ zHE rzlw tF Gz oElJ l FlxCwp qEzx
Gsp uztyG CzFGpEtzE zq Gsp ClElxpGpEF rtIpy Gsp olGl e- RtmmF FlxCwtyr Jtww
mp spwCqHw tq tG tF plFA Gz FlxCwp qEzx Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy zq plns
ClElxpGpE rtIpy Gsp zGspE ClElxpGpEF lyo e- Ly pKlxCwp1Gsp RlHFFtly
xtKGHEp CEzmwpx1tF opGltwpo ypKG-
jspEp tF l nwzFp nzyypnGtzy mpGJppy RtmmF FlxCwtyr qEzx l CzFGpEtzE lyo
Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx ty pKCzypyGtlw qlxtwA xzopwF- jsp vpA tF Gz nzyFtopE Gsp
wlGpyG olGl ex qEzx Gsp PX CEznpoHEp Gz mp lyzGspE ClElxpGpE qzE Gsp
RtmmF FlxCwpE- jz xlvp GstF pKCwtntG qzE Gsp RlHFFtly xtKGHEp CEzmwpx+
Jp Glvp zHE ClElxpGpEF Gz mp ’θW ex (- QzE FtxCwtntGA Jp ¨K Gsp IlEtlynpF
σ0= W σ== lyo xtKtyr CEzCzEGtzy π lG GsptE xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo IlwHpF Fz GslG
Gsp zywA HyvyzJy ClElxpGpEF ty θ lEp Gsp xplyF <0 lyo <= - jsp RtmmF
FlxCwpE qzE Gsp xtKGHEp CEzmwpx tF rtIpy ty LwrzEtGsx ]-?- bp Fpp GslG
FGpCF =’l( lyo =’m( lEp Gsp Flxp lF Gsp P lyo X FGpCF zq Gsp PX CEz!
npoHEp+ pKnpCG GslG Jp FlxCwp ElGspE Gsly xlKtxtBp- Ty FGpC =’l(+ ElGspE
Gsly nzxCHGp Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF γt ˆ P’∆t KθW e(+
Gsp RtmmF FlxCwtyr CEznpoHEp FtxHwlGpF Gsp wlGpyG olGl ∆t qEzx Gsp otFGEt!
mHGtzyF fE’∆t KθW e(- Ty FGpC =’m(+ ElGspE Gsly nzxCHGp Gsp xlKtxtBpEF zq
Gsp CzFGpEtzE fE’<0 W <= W ∆Ke( Jp FtxHwlGp qEzx Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy
fE’<0 W <= K∆W e(-
QtrHEp ]-] FszJF =$$ tGpElGtzyF zq RtmmF FlxCwtyr+ JtGs Gsp xply ClElx!
pGpEF <0 ’wzJpE( lyo <=( ’HCCpE( FszJy ty Gsp wpqG Clypw+ lyo Gsp CEzCzEGtzy
zq nwlFF = zmFpEIlGtzyF t ∆t .Y zy Gsp EtrsG- SzEtBzyGlw mEzvpy wtypF ( slIp
mppy oElJy lG Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp IlwHpF < —0 W <
—= lyo t γ—t .Y
ty plns nlFp- jsp IlwHpF Fppx Gz FGlmtwtBp DHtGp DHtnvwA+ lyo lEp otFGEtmHGpo
pIpywA lEzHyo Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo IlwHpF-
jsp lmzIp xtKGHEp xzopw JlF FtxCwt¨po+ ty zEopE Gz xlvp Gsp nwplE
nzyypnGtzy mpGJppy RtmmF FlxCwtyr lyo Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx- XzEp EplwtFGt!
nlwwA+ zyp JzHwo CHG l CEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy zy Gsp IlEtlynpF σ0= W σ== lyo xtKtyr
CEzCzEGtzy π+ lyo tynwHop FpClElGp RtmmF FlxCwtyr FGpCF ty Jstns Jp Flx!
Cwp qEzx GsptE CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzyF+ nzyotGtzylw zy Gsp zGspE ClElxpGpEF-
Zyp nly lwFz tynzECzElGp CEzCpE ’tyqzExlGtIp( CEtzEF qzE Gsp xply ClElx!
]-[ cNcN qzE ilxCwtyr qEzx Gsp fzFGpEtzE =]%
LwrzEtGsx 7-3 RtmmF FlxCwtyr qzE xtKGHEpF-

W$( W$(
%- jlvp Fzxp tytGtlw IlwHpF θW$( ˆ ’<0 W <= (-
=- hpCplG qzE G ˆ %W =W , , , W ,
WG( WG(
’l( QzE t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y rpypElGp ∆t ∈ ·$W %• JtGs fE’∆t ˆ %( ˆ
γ—t ’θWG( (+ qEzx pDHlGtzy ’]-?=(-
’m( ipG
(Y WG(
tˆ0 ’% } ∆t ( ± At
<
—0 ˆ (Y WG(
W
tˆ0 ’% } ∆t (
(Y WG(
tˆ0 ∆t ± At
<
—= ˆ (Y WG(
W
tˆ0 ∆t
WG( WG(
lyo rpypElGp <0 ∼ Y ’— —0= ( lyo <= ∼ Y ’—
<0 W σ —== (-
<= W σ
WG( WG(
“- NzyGtyHp FGpC = HyGtw Gsp uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy zq ’∆WG( W <0 W <= ( ozpFy&G
nslyrp
8
0.7
6
Mean Parameters
Mixing Proportion
0.6
4
0.5
2
0.4
0
0.3
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200

Gibbs Iteration Gibbs Iteration
QTRIFD 7W7W ctKGHEp pKlxCwp- ’ pqG Clypw9( =// IlwHpF zq Gsp GJz xply ClElx,
pGpEF qEzx RtmmF FlxCwtyr‘ szEtBzyGlw wtypF lEp oElJy lG Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo
pFGtxlGpF <
10 + <
1= - ’htrsG Clypw9( fEzCzEGtzy zq IlwHpF JtGs ;tC
ˆ %+ qzE plns zq Gsp
=// RtmmF FlxCwtyr tGpElGtzyF‘ l szEtBzyGlw wtyp tF oElJy lG t γ1t .Y -
=]= ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
pGpEF- jspFp CEtzEF xHFG yzG mp txCEzCpE lF GstF Jtww wplo Gz l oprpypElGp
CzFGpEtzE+ JtGs lww Gsp xtKtyr JptrsG zy zyp nzxCzypyG-
RtmmF FlxCwtyr tF uHFG zyp zq l yHxmpE zq EpnpyGwA opIpwzCpo CEznpoHEpF
qzE FlxCwtyr qEzx CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzyF- TG HFpF nzyotGtzylw FlxCwtyr zq
plns ClElxpGpE rtIpy Gsp EpFG+ lyo tF HFpqHw Jspy Gsp FGEHnGHEp zq Gsp CEzm!
wpx xlvpF GstF FlxCwtyr plFA Gz nlEEA zHG- ZGspE xpGszoF oz yzG EpDHtEp
FHns FGEHnGHEp+ qzE pKlxCwp Gsp XpGEzCzwtF8SlFGtyrF lwrzEtGsx- jspFp lyo
zGspE nzxCHGlGtzylw MlApFtly xpGszoF slIp mppy lCCwtpo Gz FzCstFGtnlGpo
wplEytyr lwrzEtGsxF FHns lF RlHFFtly CEznpFF xzopwF lyo ypHElw ypGJzEvF-
OpGltwF xlA mp qzHyo ty Gsp EpqpEpynpF rtIpy ty Gsp MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF lG
Gsp pyo zq GstF nslCGpE-
7-fi Mlrrtyr
PlEwtpE Jp tyGEzoHnpo Gsp mzzGFGElC lF l JlA zq lFFpFFtyr Gsp lnnHElnA zq l
ClElxpGpE pFGtxlGp zE l CEpotnGtzy- SpEp Jp FszJ szJ Gz HFp Gsp mzzGFGElC
Gz txCEzIp Gsp pFGtxlGp zE CEpotnGtzy tGFpwq- Ty ipnGtzy ]-? Jp tyIpFGtrlGpo
Gsp EpwlGtzyFstC mpGJppy Gsp mzzGFGElC lyo MlApF lCCEzlnspF+ lyo qzHyo
GslG Gsp mzzGFGElC xply tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA l CzFGpEtzE lIpElrp- Mlrrtyr
qHEGspE pKCwztGF GstF nzyypnGtzy-
NzyFtopE ËFG Gsp EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx- iHCCzFp Jp ¨G l xzopw Gz zHE
GEltytyr olGl e ˆ ·’K0 W A0 (W ’K= W A= (W , , , W ’KY W AY (•+ zmGltytyr Gsp CEpotn!
Gtzy q—’K( lG tyCHG K- MzzGFGElC lrrEprlGtzy zE mlrrtyr lIpElrpF GstF CEpotn!
Gtzy zIpE l nzwwpnGtzy zq mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF+ GspEpmA EpoHntyr tGF IlEtlynp-
QzE plns mzzGFGElC FlxCwp e{m + m ˆ %W =W , , , W M+ Jp ¨G zHE xzopw+ rtItyr
CEpotnGtzy q—{m ’K(- jsp mlrrtyr pFGtxlGp tF opÿpo mA
M
% ∑ —{m
q—mlr ’K( ˆ q ’K(, ’]-4%(
M
mˆ0
OpyzGp mA D— Gsp pxCtEtnlw otFGEtmHGtzy CHGGtyr pDHlw CEzmlmtwtGA %.Y zy

plns zq Gsp olGl CztyGF ’Kt W At (- Ty qlnG Gsp ˜GEHp˙ mlrrtyr pFGtxlGp tF
opÿpo mA PZ1 q—{ ’K(+ JspEp e{ ˆ ’K{0 W A0{ (W ’K{= W A={ (W , , , W ’K{Y W AY
{
( lyo plns
{ { —
’Kt W At ( ∼ D- PKCEpFFtzy ’]-4%( tF l XzyGp NlEwz pFGtxlGp zq Gsp GEHp
mlrrtyr pFGtxlGp+ lCCEzlnstyr tG lF M → ∞-
jsp mlrrpo pFGtxlGp ’]-4%( Jtww otΓpE qEzx Gsp zEtrtylw pFGtxlGp q—’K(
zywA Jspy Gsp wlGGpE tF l yzywtyplE zE lolCGtIp qHynGtzy zq Gsp olGl- QzE
pKlxCwp+ Gz mlr Gsp M!FCwtyp FxzzGs zq ipnGtzy ]-=-%+ Jp lIpElrp Gsp nHEIpF
ty Gsp mzGGzx wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp ]-= lG plns IlwHp zq K- jsp M!FCwtyp
FxzzGspE tF wtyplE ty Gsp olGl tq Jp ¨K Gsp tyCHGF: spynp tq Jp FlxCwp HFtyr
Gsp ClElxpGEtn mzzGFGElC ty pDHlGtzy ’]-[(+ Gspy q—mlr ’K( → q—’K( lF M → ∞
’PKpEntFp ]-?(- Spynp mlrrtyr uHFG EpCEzoHnpF Gsp zEtrtylw FxzzGs ty Gsp
]-fi Mlrrtyr =]“
GzC wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp ]-=- jsp Flxp tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA GEHp tq Jp JpEp Gz
mlr HFtyr Gsp yzyClElxpGEtn mzzGFGElC-
L xzEp tyGpEpFGtyr pKlxCwp tF l EprEpFFtzy GEpp+ JspEp q—’K( opyzGpF Gsp
GEpp&F CEpotnGtzy lG tyCHG IpnGzE K ’EprEpFFtzy GEppF lEp opFnEtmpo ty NslC!
GpE –(- Plns mzzGFGElC GEpp Jtww GACtnlwwA tyIzwIp otΓpEpyG qplGHEpF Gsly Gsp
zEtrtylw+ lyo xtrsG slIp l otΓpEpyG yHxmpE zq GpExtylw yzopF- jsp mlrrpo
pFGtxlGp tF Gsp lIpElrp CEpotnGtzy lG K qEzx GspFp M GEppF-
YzJ FHCCzFp zHE GEpp CEzoHnpF l nwlFFt¨pE R’K(— qzE l V!nwlFF EpFCzyFp-
SpEp tG tF HFpqHw Gz nzyFtopE ly HyopEwAtyr tyotnlGzE!IpnGzE qHynGtzy q—’K(+
JtGs IlwHp l Ftyrwp zyp lyo V } % BpEzpF+ FHns GslG R’K(— ˆ lEr xlKv q—’K(-
—
jspy Gsp mlrrpo pFGtxlGp qmlr ’K( ’]-4%( tF l V!IpnGzE ”C0 ’K(W C= ’K(W , , , W
CV ’K(fl+ JtGs Cv ’K( pDHlw Gz Gsp CEzCzEGtzy zq GEppF CEpotnGtyr nwlFF v lG K-
jsp mlrrpo nwlFFt¨pE FpwpnGF Gsp nwlFF JtGs Gsp xzFG ˜IzGpF˙ qEzx Gsp M
GEppF+ R— mlr ’K( ˆ lEr xlKv q—mlr ’K(-
ZqGpy Jp EpDHtEp Gsp nwlFF!CEzmlmtwtGA pFGtxlGpF lG K+ ElGspE Gsly Gsp
nwlFFt¨nlGtzyF GspxFpwIpF- TG tF GpxCGtyr Gz GEplG Gsp IzGtyr CEzCzEGtzyF
Cv ’K( lF pFGtxlGpF zq GspFp CEzmlmtwtGtpF- L FtxCwp GJz!nwlFF pKlxCwp FszJF
GslG GspA qltw ty GstF EprlEo- iHCCzFp Gsp GEHp CEzmlmtwtGA zq nwlFF % lG K tF
$,fi4+ lyo plns zq Gsp mlrrpo nwlFFt¨pEF lnnHElGpwA CEpotnG l %- jspy C0 ’K( ˆ
—
%+ Jstns tF tynzEEpnG- QzE xlyA nwlFFt¨pEF R’K(+ szJpIpE+ GspEp tF lwEploA
—
ly HyopEwAtyr qHynGtzy q ’K( GslG pFGtxlGpF Gsp nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF lG K ’qzE
GEppF+ Gsp nwlFF CEzCzEGtzyF ty Gsp GpExtylw yzop(- Ly lwGpEylGtIp mlrrtyr
FGElGprA tF Gz lIpElrp GspFp tyFGplo+ ElGspE Gsly Gsp IzGp tyotnlGzE IpnGzEF-
YzG zywA ozpF GstF CEzoHnp txCEzIpo pFGtxlGpF zq Gsp nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF+
mHG tG lwFz GpyoF Gz CEzoHnp mlrrpo nwlFFt¨pEF JtGs wzJpE IlEtlynp+ pFCpntlwwA
qzE Fxlww M ’Fpp QtrHEp ]-%$ ty Gsp ypKG pKlxCwp(-
7-fi-0 PKlxCwp9 jEppF JtGs itxHwlGpo OlGl

bp rpypElGpo l FlxCwp zq FtBp Y ˆ “$+ JtGs GJz nwlFFpF lyo C ˆ 4 qplGHEpF+
plns slItyr l FGlyolEo RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy JtGs CltEJtFp nzEEpwlGtzy
$,–4- jsp EpFCzyFp d JlF rpypElGpo lnnzEotyr Gz fE’d ˆ %KK0 ≤ $,4( ˆ $,=+
fE’d ˆ %KK0 / $,4( ˆ $,]- jsp MlApF pEEzE tF $,=- L GpFG FlxCwp zq FtBp =$$$
JlF lwFz rpypElGpo qEzx Gsp Flxp CzCHwlGtzy- bp ¨G nwlFFt¨nlGtzy GEppF Gz
Gsp GEltytyr FlxCwp lyo Gz plns zq =$$ mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF ’nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
GEppF lEp opFnEtmpo ty NslCGpE –(- Yz CEHytyr JlF HFpo- QtrHEp ]-– FszJF
Gsp zEtrtylw GEpp lyo pwpIpy mzzGFGElC GEppF- YzGtnp szJ Gsp GEppF lEp lww
otΓpEpyG+ JtGs otΓpEpyG FCwtGGtyr qplGHEpF lyo nHGCztyGF- jsp GpFG pEEzE qzE
Gsp zEtrtylw GEpp lyo Gsp mlrrpo GEpp tF FszJy ty QtrHEp ]-%$- Ty GstF pK!
lxCwp Gsp GEppF slIp strs IlEtlynp oHp Gz Gsp nzEEpwlGtzy ty Gsp CEpotnGzEF-
Mlrrtyr FHnnppoF ty FxzzGstyr zHG GstF IlEtlynp lyo spynp EpoHntyr Gsp
GpFG pEEzE-
Mlrrtyr nly oElxlGtnlwwA EpoHnp Gsp IlEtlynp zq HyFGlmwp CEznpoHEpF
wtvp GEppF+ wplotyr Gz txCEzIpo CEpotnGtzy- L FtxCwp lErHxpyG FszJF JsA
=]? ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
Original Tree b=1 b=2

x.1 < 0.395 x.1 < 0.555 x.2 < 0.205
| | |
1 1
0 1 0 0
0 1
1 0
0
0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1
b=3 b=4 b=5

x.2 < 0.285 x.3 < 0.985 x.4 < −1.36
| | |
0
1 1
0
0
1
1 1 0
1 0
0
1
1 1 0 1 1 0
b=6 b=7 b=8

x.1 < 0.395 x.1 < 0.395 x.3 < 0.985
| | |
1 1 0
0 1 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1
b=9 b = 10 b = 11
x.1 < 0.395 x.1 < 0.555 x.1 < 0.555
| | |
0
1
0
1
1 0 0 1
0 1 1 0 0 1
QTRIFD 7W8W Mlrrtyr GEppF zy FtxHwlGpo olGlFpG- jsp GzC wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp
zEtrtylw GEpp- PwpIpy GEppF rEzJy zy mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF lEp FszJy- QzE plns GEpp+
Gsp GzC FCwtG tF lyyzGlGpo-
]-fi Mlrrtyr =]4
0.50
Consensus
Probability
Original Tree
0.45
0.40
Test Error Bagged Trees
0.35
0.30
0.25
Bayes
0.20
0 50 100 150 200
Number of Bootstrap Samples
QTRIFD 7W0.W PEEzE nHEIpF qzE Gsp mlrrtyr pKlxCwp zq QtrHEp fl-–- iszJy tF
Gsp GpFG pEEzE zq Gsp zEtrtylw GEpp lyo mlrrpo GEppF lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp yHxmpE zq
mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF- jsp zElyrp CztyGF nzEEpFCzyo Gz Gsp nzyFpyFHF IzGp+ Jstwp Gsp
rEppy CztyGF lIpElrp Gsp CEzmlmtwtGtpF-
mlrrtyr spwCF HyopE FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF+ ty FszEG mpnlHFp lIpElrtyr EpoHnpF

IlEtlynp lyo wplIpF mtlF Hynslyrpo-
LFFHxp zHE GEltytyr zmFpEIlGtzyF ’Kt W At (W t ˆ %W , , , W Y lEp tyopCpy!
opyGwA oElJy qEzx l otFGEtmHGtzy D+ lyo nzyFtopE Gsp toplw lrrEprlGp pF!
GtxlGzE qlr ’K( ˆ PZ q—{ ’K(- SpEp K tF ¨Kpo lyo Gsp mzzGFGElC olGlFpG e{
nzyFtFGF zq zmFpEIlGtzyF K{t W At{ + t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y FlxCwpo qEzx D- YzGp GslG
qlr ’K( tF l mlrrtyr pFGtxlGp+ oElJtyr mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF qEzx Gsp lnGHlw
CzCHwlGtzy D ElGspE Gsly Gsp olGl- TG tF yzG ly pFGtxlGp GslG Jp nly HFp
ty CElnGtnp+ mHG tF nzyIpytpyG qzE lylwAFtF- bp nly JEtGp
PZ ”d } q—{ ’K(fl= ˆ PZ ”d } qlr ’K( ) qlr ’K( } q—{ ’K(fl=

ˆ PZ ”d } qlr ’K(fl= ) PZ ”q—{ ’K( } qlr ’K(fl=
≥ PZ ”d } qlr ’K(fl= , ’]-4=(
jsp pKGEl pEEzE zy Gsp EtrsG!slyo Ftop nzxpF qEzx Gsp IlEtlynp zq q—{ ’K(
lEzHyo tGF xply qlr ’K(- jspEpqzEp GEHp CzCHwlGtzy lrrEprlGtzy ypIpE ty!
nEplFpF xply FDHlEpo pEEzE- jstF FHrrpFGF GslG mlrrtyr1oElJtyr FlxCwpF
qEzx Gsp GEltytyr olGl1 Jtww zqGpy opnEplFp xply!FDHlEpo pEEzE-
jsp lmzIp lErHxpyG ozpF yzG szwo qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy HyopE $!% wzFF+ mp!
nlHFp zq Gsp yzylootGtItGA zq mtlF lyo IlEtlynp- Ty GslG FpGGtyr+ mlrrtyr l
=][ ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
rzzo nwlFFt¨pE nly xlvp tG mpGGpE+ mHG mlrrtyr l mlo nwlFFt¨pE nly xlvp tG
JzEFp- SpEp tF l FtxCwp pKlxCwp+ HFtyr l ElyozxtBpo EHwp- iHCCzFp d ˆ %
—
qzE lww K+ lyo Gsp nwlFFt¨pE R’K( CEpotnGF d ˆ % ’qzE lww K( JtGs CEzml!
mtwtGA $-? lyo CEpotnGF d ˆ $ ’qzE lww K( JtGs CEzmlmtwtGA $-[- jspy Gsp
—
xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE zq R’K( tF $-[ mHG GslG zq Gsp mlrrpo nwlFFt¨pE tF %-$-
QzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy Jp nly HyopEFGlyo Gsp mlrrtyr pΓpnG ty GpExF zq l
nzyFpyFHF zq tyopCpyopyG Jplv wplEypEF ’OtpGGpEtns+ =$$$l(- pG Gsp MlApF
zCGtxlw opntFtzy lG K mp R’K( ˆ % ty l GJz!nwlFF pKlxCwp- iHCCzFp plns
zq Gsp Jplv wplEypEF R{m slIp ly pEEzE!ElGp pm ˆ p ı $,4+ lyo wpG i0 ’K( ˆ
(M {
mˆ0 T’Rm ’K( ˆ %( mp Gsp nzyFpyFHF IzGp qzE nwlFF %- itynp Gsp Jplv wplEy!
pEF lEp lFFHxpo Gz mp tyopCpyopyG+ i0 ’K( ∼ Mty’MW % } p(+ lyo fE’i0 /
M.=( → % lF M rpGF wlErp- jstF nzynpCG slF mppy CzCHwlEtBpo zHGFtop zq
FGlGtFGtnF lF Gsp ˜btFozx zq NEzJoF˙ ’iHEzJtpnvt+ =$$?( 1 Gsp nzwwpnGtIp
vyzJwporp zq l otIpEFp lyo tyopCpyopyG mzoA zq CpzCwp GACtnlwwA pKnppoF
Gsp vyzJwporp zq lyA Ftyrwp tyotItoHlw+ lyo nly mp slEypFFpo mA IzGtyr-
Zq nzHEFp+ Gsp xlty nlIplG spEp tF ˜tyopCpyopyG+˙ lyo mlrrpo GEppF lEp
yzG- QtrHEp ]-%% twwHFGElGpF Gsp CzJpE zq l nzyFpyFHF IzGp ty l FtxHwlGpo
pKlxCwp+ JspEp zywA “$0 zq Gsp IzGpEF slIp Fzxp vyzJwporp-
Ty NslCGpE %4 Jp Fpp szJ Elyozx qzEpFGF txCEzIp zy mlrrtyr mA EpoHntyr
Gsp nzEEpwlGtzy mpGJppy Gsp FlxCwpo GEppF-
YzGp GslG Jspy Jp mlr l xzopw+ lyA FtxCwp FGEHnGHEp ty Gsp xzopw tF
wzFG- LF ly pKlxCwp+ l mlrrpo GEpp tF yz wzyrpE l GEpp- QzE tyGpECEpGlGtzy
zq Gsp xzopw GstF tF nwplEwA l oElJmlnv- XzEp FGlmwp CEznpoHEpF wtvp yplE!
pFG yptrsmzEF lEp GACtnlwwA yzG lΓpnGpo xHns mA mlrrtyr- kyqzEGHylGpwA+
Gsp HyFGlmwp xzopwF xzFG spwCpo mA mlrrtyr lEp HyFGlmwp mpnlHFp zq Gsp
pxCslFtF zy tyGpECEpGlmtwtGA+ lyo GstF tF wzFG ty Gsp mlrrtyr CEznpFF-
QtrHEp ]-%= FszJF ly pKlxCwp JspEp mlrrtyr ozpFy&G spwC- jsp %$$ olGl
CztyGF FszJy slIp GJz qplGHEpF lyo GJz nwlFFpF+ FpClElGpo mA Gsp rElA
wtyplE mzHyolEA K0 ) K= ˆ %- bp nszzFp lF zHE nwlFFt¨pE R’K( — l Ftyrwp
lKtF!zEtpyGpo FCwtG+ nszzFtyr Gsp FCwtG lwzyr ptGspE K0 zE K= GslG CEzoHnpF
Gsp wlErpFG opnEplFp ty GEltytyr xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE-
jsp opntFtzy mzHyolEA zmGltypo qEzx mlrrtyr Gsp $!% opntFtzy EHwp zIpE
M ˆ 4$ mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF tF FszJy mA Gsp mwHp nHEIp ty Gsp wpqG Clypw-
TG ozpF l CzzE uzm zq nlCGHEtyr Gsp GEHp mzHyolEA- jsp Ftyrwp FCwtG EHwp+
opEtIpo qEzx Gsp GEltytyr olGl+ FCwtGF yplE $ ’Gsp xtoowp zq Gsp Elyrp zq K0
zE K= (+ lyo spynp slF wtGGwp nzyGEtmHGtzy lJlA qEzx Gsp npyGpE- LIpElrtyr
Gsp CEzmlmtwtGtpF ElGspE Gsly Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzyF ozpF yzG spwC spEp- Mlrrtyr
pFGtxlGpF Gsp pKCpnGpo nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF qEzx Gsp Ftyrwp FCwtG EHwp+ GslG tF+
lIpElrpo zIpE xlyA EpCwtnlGtzyF- YzGp GslG Gsp pKCpnGpo nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF
nzxCHGpo mA mlrrtyr nlyyzG mp EplwtBpo zy lyA Ftyrwp EpCwtnlGtzy+ ty Gsp
Flxp JlA GslG l Jzxly nlyyzG slIp =-? nstwoEpy- Ty GstF FpyFp+ mlrrtyr
tynEplFpF FzxpJslG Gsp FClnp zq xzopwF zq Gsp tyotItoHlw mlFp nwlFFt¨pE-
SzJpIpE+ tG ozpFy&G spwC ty GstF lyo xlyA zGspE pKlxCwpF JspEp l rEplGpE
pywlErpxpyG zq Gsp xzopw nwlFF tF yppopo- ˜MzzFGtyr˙ tF l JlA zq oztyr GstF
]-fi Mlrrtyr =]fi
Wisdom of Crowds
10
Consensus
Individual
8
Expected Correct out of 10
6
4
2
0
0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
P − Probability of Informed Person Being Correct
QTRIFD 7W00W itxHwlGpo lnlopxA lJlEoF IzGtyr- 4/ xpxmpEF IzGp ty %/ nlG,

przEtpF+ plns JtGs ? yzxtylGtzyF- QzE lyA nlGprzEA+ zywA %4 IzGpEF slIp Fzxp
vyzJwporp+ EpCEpFpyGpo mA GsptE CEzmlmtwtGA zq FpwpnGtyr Gsp 2nzEEpnG5 nlyotolGp ty
GslG nlGprzEA ’Fz f ˆ /,=4 xplyF GspA slIp yz vyzJwporp(- QzE plns nlGprzEA+ Gsp
%4 pKCpEGF lEp nszFpy lG Elyozx qEzx Gsp 4/- hpFHwGF FszJ Gsp pKCpnGpo nzEEpnG
’mlFpo zy 4/ FtxHwlGtzyF( qzE Gsp nzyFpyFHF+ lF Jpww lF qzE Gsp tyotItoHlwF- jsp
pEEzE mlEF tyotnlGp zyp FGlyolEo opItlGtzy- bp Fpp+ qzE pKlxCwp+ GslG tq Gsp %4
tyqzExpo qzE l nlGprzEA slIp l 4/0 nslynp zq FpwpnGtyr Gsp nzEEpnG nlyotolGp+ Gsp
nzyFpyFHF ozHmwpF Gsp pKCpnGpo CpEqzExlynp zq ly tyotItoHlw-
=]] ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
Bagged Decision Rule Boosted Decision Rule
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QTRIFD 7W01W OlGl JtGs GJz qplGHEpF lyo GJz nwlFFpF+ FpClElGpo mA l wtyplE
mzHyolEA- ’ pqG Clypw9( OpntFtzy mzHyolEA pFGtxlGpo qEzx mlrrtyr Gsp opntFtzy
EHwp qEzx l Ftyrwp FCwtG+ lKtF,zEtpyGpo nwlFFt6pE- ’htrsG Clypw9( OpntFtzy mzHyolEA
qEzx mzzFGtyr Gsp opntFtzy EHwp zq Gsp Flxp nwlFFt6pE- jsp GpFG pEEzE ElGpF lEp
/,%[[+ lyo /,/[4+ EpFCpnGtIpwA- MzzFGtyr tF opFnEtmpo ty NslCGpE %/-
lyo tF opFnEtmpo ty NslCGpE %$- jsp opntFtzy mzHyolEA ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw tF
Gsp EpFHwG zq Gsp mzzFGtyr CEznpoHEp+ lyo tG EzHrswA nlCGHEpF Gsp otlrzylw
mzHyolEA-
7-7 czopw LIpElrtyr lyo iGlnvtyr

Ty ipnGtzy ]-? Jp ItpJpo mzzGFGElC IlwHpF zq ly pFGtxlGzE lF lCCEzKtxlGp
CzFGpEtzE IlwHpF zq l nzEEpFCzyotyr ClElxpGpE+ qEzx l vtyo zq yzyClElxpG!
Etn MlApFtly lylwAFtF- atpJpo ty GstF JlA+ Gsp mlrrpo pFGtxlGp ’]-4%( tF
ly lCCEzKtxlGp CzFGpEtzE MlApFtly xply- Ty nzyGElFG+ Gsp GEltytyr FlxCwp
pFGtxlGp q—’K( nzEEpFCzyoF Gz Gsp xzop zq Gsp CzFGpEtzE- itynp Gsp CzFGpEtzE
xply ’yzG xzop( xtytxtBpF FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF+ tG tF yzG FHECEtFtyr GslG
mlrrtyr nly zqGpy EpoHnp xply FDHlEpo!pEEzE-
SpEp Jp otFnHFF MlApFtly xzopw lIpElrtyr xzEp rpypElwwA- bp slIp l
FpG zq nlyotolGp xzopwF Xx W x ˆ %W , , , W X qzE zHE GEltytyr FpG e- jspFp
xzopwF xlA mp zq Gsp Flxp GACp JtGs otΓpEpyG ClElxpGpE IlwHpF ’p-r-+
FHmFpGF ty wtyplE EprEpFFtzy(+ zE otΓpEpyG xzopwF qzE Gsp Flxp GlFv ’p-r-+
ypHElw ypGJzEvF lyo EprEpFFtzy GEppF(-
iHCCzFp ζ tF Fzxp DHlyGtGA zq tyGpEpFG+ qzE pKlxCwp+ l CEpotnGtzy q ’K( lG
Fzxp ¨Kpo qplGHEp IlwHp K- jsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy zq ζ tF
X
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fE’ζKe( ˆ fE’ζKXx W e(fE’Xx Ke(W ’]-4“(
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JtGs CzFGpEtzE xply

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jstF MlApFtly CEpotnGtzy tF l JptrsGpo lIpElrp zq Gsp tyotItoHlw CEpotnGtzyF+

JtGs JptrsGF CEzCzEGtzylw Gz Gsp CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGA zq plns xzopw-
jstF qzExHwlGtzy wploF Gz l yHxmpE zq otΓpEpyG xzopw!lIpElrtyr FGElGp!
rtpF- NzxxtGGpp xpGszoF Glvp l FtxCwp HyJptrsGpo lIpElrp zq Gsp CEpotn!
GtzyF qEzx plns xzopw+ pFFpyGtlwwA rtItyr pDHlw CEzmlmtwtGA Gz plns xzopw-
XzEp lxmtGtzHFwA+ Gsp opIpwzCxpyG ty ipnGtzy fi-fi FszJF Gsp MTN nEtGpEtzy
nly mp HFpo Gz pFGtxlGp CzFGpEtzE xzopw CEzmlmtwtGtpF- jstF tF lCCwtnlmwp
ty nlFpF JspEp Gsp otΓpEpyG xzopwF lEtFp qEzx Gsp Flxp ClElxpGEtn xzopw+
JtGs otΓpEpyG ClElxpGpE IlwHpF- jsp MTN rtIpF JptrsG Gz plns xzopw op!
Cpyotyr zy szJ Jpww tG ¨GF lyo szJ xlyA ClElxpGpEF tG HFpF- Zyp nly lwFz
nlEEA zHG Gsp MlApFtly EpntCp ty qHww- Tq plns xzopw Xx slF ClElxpGpEF
θx + Jp JEtGp
fE’Xx Ke( ∝ fE’Xx ( ± fE’eKX

∫ x(
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Ty CEtyntCwp zyp nly FCpntqA CEtzEF fE’θx KXx ( lyo yHxpEtnlwwA nzx!
CHGp Gsp CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGtpF qEzx ’]-44(+ Gz mp HFpo lF xzopw!lIpElrtyr
JptrsGF- SzJpIpE+ Jp slIp Fppy yz Eplw pItopynp GslG GstF tF JzEGs lww zq
Gsp pΓzEG+ EpwlGtIp Gz Gsp xHns FtxCwpE MTN lCCEzKtxlGtzy-
SzJ nly Jp lCCEzlns xzopw lIpElrtyr qEzx l qEpDHpyGtFG ItpJCztyG¯
RtIpy CEpotnGtzyF q—0 ’K(W q—= ’K(W , , , W q—X ’K(+ HyopE FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF+ Jp nly
Fppv Gsp JptrsGF J ˆ ’J0 W J= W , , , W JX ( FHns GslG
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Gsp GlErpG d ( lEp otFGEtmHGpo lnnzEotyr Gz D- jsp FzwHGtzy tF Gsp CzCHwlGtzy
wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zq d zy Q— ’K(j ≡ ”q—0 ’K(W q—= ’K(W , , , W q—X ’K(fl9
— ˆ PZ ”Q— ’K(Q— ’K(j fl}0 PZ ”Q— ’K(d fl,

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=–/ ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
Zq nzHEFp Gsp CzCHwlGtzy wtyplE EprEpFFtzy ’]-4fi( tF yzG lIltwlmwp+ lyo tG

tF ylGHElw Gz EpCwlnp tG JtGs Gsp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zIpE Gsp GEltytyr FpG- MHG
GspEp lEp FtxCwp pKlxCwpF JspEp GstF ozpF yzG JzEv Jpww- QzE pKlxCwp+ tq
q—x ’K(W x ˆ %W =W , , , W X EpCEpFpyG Gsp CEpotnGtzy qEzx Gsp mpFG FHmFpG zq
tyCHGF zq FtBp x lxzyr X GzGlw tyCHGF+ Gspy wtyplE EprEpFFtzy JzHwo CHG lww
zq Gsp JptrsG zy Gsp wlErpFG xzopw+ GslG tF+ J —X ˆ %W J—x ˆ $W x ı X - jsp
CEzmwpx tF GslG Jp slIp yzG CHG plns zq Gsp xzopwF zy Gsp Flxp qzzGtyr
mA Glvtyr tyGz lnnzHyG GsptE nzxCwpKtGA ’Gsp yHxmpE zq tyCHGF x ty GstF
pKlxCwp(-
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mp Gsp CEpotnGtzy lG K+ HFtyr xzopw x+ lCCwtpo Gz Gsp olGlFpG JtGs Gsp
tGs GEltytyr zmFpEIlGtzy EpxzIpo- jsp FGlnvtyr pFGtxlGp zq Gsp JptrsGF tF
zmGltypo qEzx Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zq At zy q—x }t
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strspE nzxCwpKtGA- MpGGpE EpFHwGF nly mp zmGltypo mA EpFGEtnGtyr Gsp JptrsGF
Gz mp yzyyprlGtIp+ lyo Gz FHx Gz %- jstF FppxF wtvp l EplFzylmwp EpFGEtnGtzy
tq Jp tyGpECEpG Gsp JptrsGF lF CzFGpEtzE xzopw CEzmlmtwtGtpF lF ty pDHlGtzy
’]-4?(+ lyo tG wploF Gz l GElnGlmwp DHloElGtn CEzrElxxtyr CEzmwpx-
jspEp tF l nwzFp nzyypnGtzy mpGJppy FGlnvtyr lyo xzopw FpwpnGtzy Itl
wplIp!zyp!zHG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy ’ipnGtzy fi-%$(- Tq Jp EpFGEtnG Gsp xtytxtBlGtzy
ty ’]-4–( Gz JptrsG IpnGzEF J GslG slIp zyp HytG JptrsG lyo Gsp EpFG BpEz+
GstF wploF Gz l xzopw nsztnp x — JtGs FxlwwpFG wplIp!zyp!zHG nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy
pEEzE- hlGspE Gsly nszzFp l Ftyrwp xzopw+ FGlnvtyr nzxmtypF Gspx JtGs
pFGtxlGpo zCGtxlw JptrsGF- jstF Jtww zqGpy wplo Gz mpGGpE CEpotnGtzy+ mHG
wpFF tyGpECEpGlmtwtGA Gsly Gsp nsztnp zq zywA zyp zq Gsp X xzopwF-
jsp FGlnvtyr topl tF lnGHlwwA xzEp rpypElw Gsly opFnEtmpo lmzIp- Zyp
nly HFp lyA wplEytyr xpGszo+ yzG uHFG wtyplE EprEpFFtzy+ Gz nzxmtyp Gsp
xzopwF lF ty ’]-4–(: Gsp JptrsGF nzHwo lwFz opCpyo zy Gsp tyCHG wznlGtzy
K- Ty GstF JlA+ wplEytyr xpGszoF lEp ˜FGlnvpo˙ zy GzC zq zyp lyzGspE+ Gz
txCEzIp CEpotnGtzy CpEqzExlynp-
7-– iGznslFGtn iplEns9 MHxCtyr

jsp ÿlw xpGszo opFnEtmpo ty GstF nslCGpE ozpF yzG tyIzwIp lIpElrtyr zE
nzxmtytyr xzopwF+ mHG ElGspE tF l GpnsytDHp qzE ÿotyr l mpGGpE Ftyrwp
xzopw- MHxCtyr HFpF mzzGFGElC FlxCwtyr Gz xzIp ElyozxwA GsEzHrs xzopw
FClnp- QzE CEzmwpxF JspEp ¨GGtyr xpGszo ÿoF xlyA wznlw xtytxl+ mHxC!
tyr nly spwC Gsp xpGszo Gz lIzto rpGGtyr FGHnv ty CzzE FzwHGtzyF-
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Regular 4-Node Tree Bumped 4-Node Tree
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zq l FGlyolEo+ rEppoA+ GEpp,rEzJtyr lwrzEtGsx- jsp IpEGtnlw rEpA wtyp yplE Gsp wpqG
porp tF Gsp 6EFG FCwtG+ lyo Gsp mEzvpy wtypF lEp Gsp GJz FHmFpDHpyG FCwtGF- jsp lw,
rzEtGsx slF yz topl JspEp Gz xlvp l rzzo tytGtlw FCwtG+ lyo xlvpF l CzzE nsztnp-
jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp yplE,zCGtxlw FCwtGF qzHyo mA mHxCtyr Gsp GEpp,rEzJtyr
lwrzEtGsx =/ GtxpF-
LF ty mlrrtyr+ Jp oElJ mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF lyo ¨G l xzopw Gz plns- MHG

ElGspE Gsly lIpElrp Gsp CEpotnGtzyF+ Jp nszzFp Gsp xzopw pFGtxlGpo qEzx l
mzzGFGElC FlxCwp GslG mpFG ¨GF Gsp GEltytyr olGl- Ty opGltw+ Jp oElJ mzzG!
FGElC FlxCwpF e{0 W , , , W e{M lyo ¨G zHE xzopw Gz plns+ rtItyr CEpotnGtzyF
q—{m ’K(W m ˆ %W =W , , , W M lG tyCHG CztyG K- bp Gspy nszzFp Gsp xzopw GslG
CEzoHnpF Gsp FxlwwpFG CEpotnGtzy pEEzE+ lIpElrpo zIpE Gsp zEtrtylw GEltytyr
FpG- QzE FDHlEpo pEEzE+ qzE pKlxCwp+ Jp nszzFp Gsp xzopw zmGltypo qEzx
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jsp nzEEpFCzyotyr xzopw CEpotnGtzyF lEp q—{m ’K(- MA nzyIpyGtzy Jp lwFz
tynwHop Gsp zEtrtylw GEltytyr FlxCwp ty Gsp FpG zq mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF+ Fz GslG
Gsp xpGszo tF qEpp Gz Ctnv Gsp zEtrtylw xzopw tq tG slF Gsp wzJpFG GEltytyr
pEEzE-
MA CpEGHEmtyr Gsp olGl+ mHxCtyr GEtpF Gz xzIp Gsp ¨GGtyr CEznpoHEp
lEzHyo Gz rzzo lEplF zq xzopw FClnp- QzE pKlxCwp+ tq l qpJ olGl CztyGF lEp
nlHFtyr Gsp CEznpoHEp Gz ÿo l CzzE FzwHGtzy+ lyA mzzGFGElC FlxCwp GslG
zxtGF GszFp olGl CztyGF FszHwo CEznpoHEp l mpGGpE FzwHGtzy-
QzE lyzGspE pKlxCwp+ nzyFtopE Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy olGl ty QtrHEp ]-%“+ Gsp
yzGzEtzHF pKnwHFtIp zE &cZh( CEzmwpx- jspEp lEp GJz nwlFFpF ’mwHp lyo
zElyrp( lyo GJz tyCHG qplGHEpF+ JtGs Gsp qplGHEpF pKstmtGtyr l CHEp tyGpE!
=–= ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
lnGtzy- MA FCwtGGtyr Gsp olGl lG K0 ˆ $ lyo Gspy FCwtGGtyr plns EpFHwGtyr

FGElGl lG K= ˆ $+ ’zE Itnp IpEFl( l GEpp!mlFpo nwlFFt¨pE nzHwo lnstpIp CpE!
qpnG otFnEtxtylGtzy- SzJpIpE+ Gsp rEppoA+ FszEG!FtrsGpo NLhj lwrzEtGsx
’ipnGtzy –-=( GEtpF Gz ÿo Gsp mpFG FCwtG zy ptGspE qplGHEp+ lyo Gspy FCwtGF
Gsp EpFHwGtyr FGElGl- MpnlHFp zq Gsp mlwlynpo ylGHEp zq Gsp olGl+ lww tytGtlw
FCwtGF zy K0 zE K= lCCplE Gz mp HFpwpFF+ lyo Gsp CEznpoHEp pFFpyGtlwwA rpypE!
lGpF l Elyozx FCwtG lG Gsp GzC wpIpw- jsp lnGHlw FCwtG qzHyo qzE GspFp olGl tF
FszJy ty Gsp wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp ]-%“- MA mzzGFGElC FlxCwtyr qEzx Gsp olGl+
mHxCtyr mEplvF Gsp mlwlynp ty Gsp nwlFFpF+ lyo JtGs l EplFzylmwp yHxmpE
zq mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF ’spEp =$(+ tG Jtww mA nslynp CEzoHnp lG wplFG zyp GEpp
JtGs tytGtlw FCwtG yplE ptGspE K0 ˆ $ zE K= ˆ $- kFtyr uHFG =$ mzzGFGElC
FlxCwpF+ mHxCtyr qzHyo Gsp yplE zCGtxlw FCwtGF FszJy ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw
zq QtrHEp ]-%“- jstF FszEGnzxtyr zq Gsp rEppoA GEpp!rEzJtyr lwrzEtGsx tF
pKlnpEmlGpo tq Jp loo l yHxmpE zq yztFp qplGHEpF GslG lEp tyopCpyopyG zq
Gsp nwlFF wlmpw- jspy Gsp GEpp!rEzJtyr lwrzEtGsx nlyyzG otFGtyrHtFs K0 zE
K= qEzx Gsp zGspEF+ lyo rpGF FpEtzHFwA wzFG-
itynp mHxCtyr nzxClEpF otΓpEpyG xzopwF zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl+ zyp xHFG
pyFHEp GslG Gsp xzopwF slIp EzHrswA Gsp Flxp nzxCwpKtGA- Ty Gsp nlFp zq
GEppF+ GstF JzHwo xply rEzJtyr GEppF JtGs Gsp Flxp yHxmpE zq GpExtylw
yzopF zy plns mzzGFGElC FlxCwp- MHxCtyr nly lwFz spwC ty CEzmwpxF JspEp
tG tF otffnHwG Gz zCGtxtBp Gsp ¨GGtyr nEtGpEtzy+ CpEslCF mpnlHFp zq l wlnv zq
FxzzGsypFF- jsp GEtnv tF Gz zCGtxtBp l otΓpEpyG+ xzEp nzyIpytpyG nEtGpEtzy
zIpE Gsp mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF+ lyo Gspy nszzFp Gsp xzopw CEzoHntyr Gsp mpFG
EpFHwGF qzE Gsp opFtEpo nEtGpEtzy zy Gsp GEltytyr FlxCwp-
MtmwtzrElCstn dzGpF
jspEp lEp xlyA mzzvF zy nwlFFtnlw FGlGtFGtnlw tyqpEpynp9 NzK lyo Styv!
wpA ’%–fi?( lyo itwIpA ’%–fi4( rtIp yzyGpnsytnlw lnnzHyGF- jsp mzzGFGElC
tF oHp Gz PqEzy ’%–fi–( lyo tF opFnEtmpo xzEp qHwwA ty PqEzy lyo jtmFst!
Elyt ’%––“( lyo Slww ’%––=(- L rzzo xzopEy mzzv zy MlApFtly tyqpEpynp
tF Rpwxly pG lw- ’%––4(- L wHnto lnnzHyG zq Gsp lCCwtnlGtzy zq MlApFtly
xpGszoF Gz ypHElw ypGJzEvF tF rtIpy ty Yplw ’%––[(- jsp FGlGtFGtnlw lCCwt!
nlGtzy zq RtmmF FlxCwtyr tF oHp Gz Rpxly lyo Rpxly ’%–]?(+ lyo Rpwqlyo
lyo ixtGs ’%––$(+ JtGs EpwlGpo JzEv mA jlyypE lyo bzyr ’%–]fi(- XlEvzI
nslty XzyGp NlEwz xpGszoF+ tynwHotyr RtmmF FlxCwtyr lyo Gsp XpGEzCzwtF8
SlFGtyrF lwrzEtGsx+ lEp otFnHFFpo ty iCtprpwslwGpE pG lw- ’%––[(- jsp PX
lwrzEtGsx tF oHp Gz OpxCFGpE pG lw- ’%–fifi(: lF Gsp otFnHFFlyGF ty GslG Cl!
CpE xlvp nwplE+ GspEp JlF xHns EpwlGpo+ plEwtpE JzEv- jsp ItpJ zq PX lF
l uztyG xlKtxtBlGtzy Fnspxp qzE l CpylwtBpo nzxCwpGp!olGl wzr!wtvpwtszzo
JlF pwHntolGpo mA Yplw lyo StyGzy ’%––](: GspA nEpotG NFtFBlE lyo jHFyľoA
’%–]?( lyo SlGslJlA ’%–][( lF slItyr yzGtnpo GstF nzyypnGtzy plEwtpE- Mlr!
rtyr JlF CEzCzFpo mA MEptxly ’%––[l(- iGlnvtyr tF oHp Gz bzwCpEG ’%––=(:
PKpEntFpF =–“
MEptxly ’%––[m( nzyGltyF ly lnnpFFtmwp otFnHFFtzy qzE FGlGtFGtntlyF- pmwlyn

lyo jtmFstElyt ’%––[( opFnEtmp IlEtlGtzyF zy FGlnvtyr mlFpo zy Gsp mzzG!
FGElC- Xzopw lIpElrtyr ty Gsp MlApFtly qElxpJzEv slF mppy EpnpyGwA loIz!
nlGpo mA Xlotrly lyo hlqGpEA ’%––?(- MHxCtyr JlF CEzCzFpo mA jtmFst!
Elyt lyo VytrsG ’%–––(-
PKpEntFpF
PK- ]-% pG E’A( lyo D’A( mp CEzmlmtwtGA opyFtGA qHynGtzyF- UpyFpy&F ty!
pDHlwtGA FGlGpF GslG qzE l Elyozx IlEtlmwp c lyo l nzyIpK qHynGtzy φ’K(+
P”φ’c(fl ≥ φ”P’c(fl- kFp UpyFpy&F typDHlwtGA Gz FszJ GslG
PD wzr”E’d (.D’d (fl ’]-[%(
tF xlKtxtBpo lF l qHynGtzy zq E’A( Jspy E’A( ˆ D’A(- Spynp FszJ GslG

h’θW θ( ≥ h’θ′ W θ( lF FGlGpo mpwzJ pDHlGtzy ’]-?[(-
PK- ]-= NzyFtopE Gsp xlKtxtBlGtzy zq Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo
( ’]-?](+ zIpE otF!
GEtmHGtzyF f2 ’ex ( FHns GslG f2 ’ex ( ≥ $ lyo BK f2 ’ex ( ˆ %- kFp l!
rElyrp xHwGtCwtpEF Gz FszJ GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy tF Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy
f2 ’ex ( ˆ fE’ex KeW θ′ (+ lF ty ’]-?–(-
PK- ]-“ UHFGtqA Gsp pFGtxlGp ’]-4$(+ HFtyr Gsp EpwlGtzyFstC
∫
fE’L( ˆ fE’LKM(o’fE’M((,
PK- ]-? NzyFtopE Gsp mlrrtyr xpGszo zq ipnGtzy ]-fi- pG zHE pFGtxlGp q—’K(
mp Gsp M!FCwtyp FxzzGspE < —’K( zq ipnGtzy ]-=-%- NzyFtopE Gsp ClElxpGEtn
mzzGFGElC zq pDHlGtzy ’]-[(+ lCCwtpo Gz GstF pFGtxlGzE- iszJ GslG tq Jp mlr
q—’K(+ HFtyr Gsp ClElxpGEtn mzzGFGElC Gz rpypElGp Gsp mzzGFGElC FlxCwpF+
Gsp mlrrtyr pFGtxlGp q—mlr ’K( nzyIpErpF Gz Gsp zEtrtylw pFGtxlGp q—’K( lF
M → ∞-
PK- ]-4 iHrrpFG rpypElwtBlGtzyF zq plns zq Gsp wzFF qHynGtzyF ty QtrHEp %$-?
Gz xzEp Gsly GJz nwlFFpF+ lyo opFtry ly lCCEzCEtlGp CwzG Gz nzxClEp Gspx-
PK- ]-[ NzyFtopE Gsp mzyp xtypElw opyFtGA olGl zq QtrHEp 4-[-
’l( QtG l nHmtn FxzzGs FCwtyp Gz Gsp EpwlGtIp nslyrp ty FCtylw MXO+ lF l
qHynGtzy zq lrp- kFp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp zCGtxlw lxzHyG
zq FxzzGstyr- NzyFGEHnG CztyGJtFp –$0 nzyöpynp mlyoF qzE Gsp Hy!
opEwAtyr qHynGtzy-
’m( NzxCHGp Gsp CzFGpEtzE xply lyo nzIlEtlynp qzE Gsp GEHp qHynGtzy Itl
’]-=](+ lyo nzxClEp Gsp CzFGpEtzE mlyoF Gz GszFp zmGltypo ty ’l(-
=–? ]- czopw TyqpEpynp lyo LIpElrtyr
’n( NzxCHGp %$$ mzzGFGElC EpCwtnlGpF zq Gsp ¨GGpo nHEIpF+ lF ty Gsp mzGGzx
wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp ]-=- NzxClEp Gsp EpFHwGF Gz GszFp zmGltypo ty ’l(
lyo ’m(-
PK- ]-fi PX lF l xtyzEtBlGtzy lwrzEtGsx’SHyGpE lyo lyrp+ =$$?: bH lyo
lyrp+ =$$fi(- L qHynGtzy r’KW A( Gz Flto Gz xtyzEtBp l qHynGtzy q ’K( tq
r’KW A( ≤ q ’K(W r’KW K( ˆ q ’K( ’]-[=(
qzE lww KW A ty Gsp ozxlty- jstF tF HFpqHw qzE xlKtxtBtyr q ’K( Ftynp tF plFA
Gz FszJ GslG q ’K( tF yzy!opnEplFtyr HyopE Gsp HColGp
KF)0 ˆ lErxlKK r’KW KF ( ’]-[“(
jspEp lEp lylwzrzHF opÿtGtzyF qzE xluzEtBlGtzy+ qzE xtytxtBtyr l qHynGtzy

q ’K(- jsp EpFHwGtyr lwrzEtGsxF lEp vyzJy lF XX lwrzEtGsxF+ qzE ˜XtyzEtBp!
XlKtxtBp˙ zE ˜XluzEtBp!XtytxtBp-˙
iszJ GslG Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx ’ipnGtzy ]-4-=( tF ly pKlxCwp zq ly XX lw!
rzEtGsx+ HFtyr g’θ′ W θ()wzr fE’eKθ(}g’θW θ( Gz xtyzEtBp Gsp zmFpEIpo olGl
wzr!wtvpwtszzo ℓ’θ′ : e(- ’YzGp GslG zywA Gsp ËFG GpEx tyIzwIpF Gsp EpwpIlyG
ClElxpGpE θ′ (-
jstF tF Clrp =–4
–
LootGtIp czopwFb uEppFb lyo hpwlGpo
cpGszoF
Ty GstF nslCGpE Jp mprty zHE otFnHFFtzy zq Fzxp FCpnt¨n xpGszoF qzE FHCpE!
ItFpo wplEytyr- jspFp GpnsytDHpF plns lFFHxp l ’otΓpEpyG( FGEHnGHEpo qzEx
qzE Gsp HyvyzJy EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzy+ lyo mA oztyr Fz GspA ÿpFFp Gsp nHEFp
zq otxpyFtzylwtGA- Zq nzHEFp+ GspA ClA Gsp CzFFtmwp CEtnp zq xtFFCpntqAtyr
Gsp xzopw+ lyo Fz ty plns nlFp GspEp tF l GElopzΓ GslG slF Gz mp xlop- jspA
Glvp zΓ JspEp NslCGpEF “8[ wpqG zΓ- bp opFnEtmp Ïp EpwlGpo GpnsytDHpF9
rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopwF+ GEppF+ xHwGtIlEtlGp lolCGtIp EprEpFFtzy FCwtypF+
Gsp ClGtpyG EHwp tyoHnGtzy xpGszo+ lyo stpElEnstnlw xtKGHEpF zq pKCpEGF-
–-0 RpypElwtBpo LootGtIp czopwF

hprEpFFtzy xzopwF CwlA ly txCzEGlyG Ezwp ty xlyA olGl lylwAFpF+ CEzItotyr
CEpotnGtzy lyo nwlFFt¨nlGtzy EHwpF+ lyo olGl lylwAGtn GzzwF qzE HyopEFGlyo!
tyr Gsp txCzEGlynp zq otΓpEpyG tyCHGF-
LwGszHrs lGGElnGtIpwA FtxCwp+ Gsp GElotGtzylw wtyplE xzopw zqGpy qltwF ty
GspFp FtGHlGtzyF9 ty Eplw wtqp+ pΓpnGF lEp zqGpy yzG wtyplE- Ty plEwtpE nslCGpEF
Jp opFnEtmpo GpnsytDHpF GslG HFpo CEpopÿpo mlFtF qHynGtzyF Gz lnstpIp
yzywtyplEtGtpF- jstF FpnGtzy opFnEtmpF xzEp lHGzxlGtn 7pKtmwp FGlGtFGtnlw
xpGszoF GslG xlA mp HFpo Gz topyGtqA lyo nslElnGpEtBp yzywtyplE EprEpFFtzy
pΓpnGF- jspFp xpGszoF lEp nlwwpo ˜rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopwF-˙
Ty Gsp EprEpFFtzy FpGGtyr+ l rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopw slF Gsp qzEx
P’d Kc0 W c= W , , , W cC ( ˆ α ) q0 ’c0 ( ) q= ’c= ( ) ± ± ± ) qC ’cC (, ’–-%(

=–[ –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
LF HFHlw c0 W c= W , , , W cC EpCEpFpyG CEpotnGzEF lyo d tF Gsp zHGnzxp: Gsp qH &F

lEp HyFCpnt¨po FxzzGs ’˜yzyClElxpGEtn˙( qHynGtzyF- Tq Jp JpEp Gz xzopw
plns qHynGtzy HFtyr ly pKClyFtzy zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF ’lF ty NslCGpE 4(+ Gsp
EpFHwGtyr xzopw nzHwo Gspy mp ¨G mA FtxCwp wplFG FDHlEpF- ZHE lCCEzlns
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nHmtn FxzzGstyr FCwtyp zE vpEypw FxzzGspE(+ lyo CEzItop ly lwrzEtGsx qzE
FtxHwGlypzHFwA pFGtxlGtyr lww C qHynGtzyF ’ipnGtzy –-%-%(-
QzE GJz!nwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ Epnlww Gsp wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw qzE mtylEA
olGl otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy ?-?- bp EpwlGp Gsp xply zq Gsp mtylEA EpFCzyFp
<’c( ˆ fE’d ˆ %Kc( Gz Gsp CEpotnGzEF Itl l wtyplE EprEpFFtzy xzopw lyo
Gsp wzrtG wtyv qHynGtzy9
9 )
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% } <’c(
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lootGtItGA tF EpGltypo lyo lwwzJF HF Gz tyGpECEpG Gsp xzopw ty xHns Gsp
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zq l rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopw- Ty rpypElw+ Gsp nzyotGtzylw xply <’c( zq
l EpFCzyFp d tF EpwlGpo Gz ly lootGtIp qHynGtzy zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF Itl l wtyv
qHynGtzy r9
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| r’<( ˆ < tF Gsp topyGtGA wtyv+ HFpo qzE wtyplE lyo lootGtIp xzopwF qzE
RlHFFtly EpFCzyFp olGl-
| r’<( ˆ wzrtG’<( lF lmzIp+ zE r’<( ˆ CEzmtG’<(+ Gsp CEzmtG wtyv qHynGtzy+
qzE xzopwtyr mtyzxtlw CEzmlmtwtGtpF- jsp CEzmtG qHynGtzy tF Gsp tyIpEFp
RlHFFtly nHxHwlGtIp otFGEtmHGtzy qHynGtzy9 CEzmtG’<( ˆ Φ}0 ’<(-
| r’<( ˆ wzr’<( qzE wzr!wtyplE zE wzr!lootGtIp xzopwF qzE fztFFzy nzHyG
olGl-
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ty lootGtzy tynwHop Gsp rlxxl lyo yprlGtIp!mtyzxtlw otFGEtmHGtzyF- jspFp
qlxtwtpF rpypElGp Gsp Jpww!vyzJy nwlFF zq rpypElwtBpo wtyplE xzopwF+ Jstns
lEp lww pKGpyopo ty Gsp Flxp JlA Gz rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopwF-
jsp qHynGtzyF qH lEp pFGtxlGpo ty l 7pKtmwp xlyypE+ HFtyr ly lwrzEtGsx
JszFp mlFtn mHtwotyr mwznv tF l FnlGGpECwzG FxzzGspE- jsp pFGtxlGpo qHyn!
Gtzy q—H nly Gspy EpIplw CzFFtmwp yzywtyplEtGtpF ty Gsp pΓpnG zq cH - YzG lww
–-% RpypElwtBpo LootGtIp czopwF =–fi
zq Gsp qHynGtzyF qH yppo Gz mp yzywtyplE- bp nly plFtwA xtK ty wtyplE lyo

zGspE ClElxpGEtn qzExF JtGs Gsp yzywtyplE GpExF+ l ypnpFFtGA Jspy Fzxp zq
Gsp tyCHGF lEp DHlwtGlGtIp IlEtlmwpF ’qlnGzEF(- jsp yzywtyplE GpExF lEp yzG
EpFGEtnGpo Gz xlty pΓpnGF ptGspE: Jp nly slIp yzywtyplE nzxCzypyGF ty GJz
zE xzEp IlEtlmwpF+ zE FpClElGp nHEIpF ty cH qzE plns wpIpw zq Gsp qlnGzE cv -
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| r’<( ˆ c j β ) αv ) q ’e(1l FpxtClElxpGEtn xzopw+ JspEp c tF l
IpnGzE zq CEpotnGzEF Gz mp xzopwpo wtyplEwA+ αv Gsp pΓpnG qzE Gsp vGs
wpIpw zq l DHlwtGlGtIp tyCHG a + lyo Gsp pΓpnG zq CEpotnGzE e tF xzopwpo
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tyCHG a + lyo GsHF nEplGpF ly tyGpElnGtzy GpEx r’aW e( ˆ rv ’e( qzE
Gsp pΓpnG zq a lyo e-
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qplGHEpF-
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qzE pKlxCwp ly lootGtIp opnzxCzFtGtzy zq Gtxp FpEtpF+
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Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp opFnEtmp l xzoHwlE lwrzEtGsx qzE ¨GGtyr lootGtIp xzopwF
lyo GsptE rpypElwtBlGtzyF- jsp mHtwotyr mwznv tF Gsp FnlGGpECwzG FxzzGspE
qzE ¨GGtyr yzywtyplE pΓpnGF ty l 7pKtmwp JlA- QzE nzynEpGpypFF Jp HFp lF zHE
FnlGGpECwzG FxzzGspE Gsp nHmtn FxzzGstyr FCwtyp opFnEtmpo ty NslCGpE 4-
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C
∑
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Hˆ0
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wtvp Gsp CpylwtBpo FHx zq FDHlEpF ’4-–( zq ipnGtzy 4-? nly mp FCpnt¨po qzE
GstF CEzmwpx+
Y
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1= C ∫
∑ ∑ ∑ ′′
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tˆ0 Hˆ0 Hˆ0
’–-fi(
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zq ’–-fi( tF ly lootGtIp nHmtn FCwtyp xzopw: plns zq Gsp qHynGtzyF qH tF l
=–] –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
LwrzEtGsx –-0 jsp Mlnv¨GGtyr LwrzEtGsx qzE LootGtIp XzopwF-

(Y
— ˆ Y0 0 At + q—H ≡ $W {tW u-
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EHwp ty Gsp yzop tF v′ˆv′ C—xv C—xv′ 1Gsp Rtyt tyopK- itxtwlEwA+ tq Jp nzop
plns zmFpEIlGtzy lF % qzE nwlFF v lyo BpEz zGspEJtFp+ Gsp IlEtlynp zIpE Gsp
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rtIpF Gsp Rtyt tyopK-
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=D}0 } % CzFFtmwp ClEGtGtzyF zq Gsp D IlwHpF tyGz GJz rEzHCF+ lyo Gsp nzx!
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GstF nzxCHGlGtzy FtxCwt¨pF- bp zEopE Gsp CEpotnGzE nwlFFpF lnnzEotyr Gz Gsp
CEzCzEGtzy qlwwtyr ty zHGnzxp nwlFF %- jspy Jp FCwtG GstF CEpotnGzE lF tq tG
JpEp ly zEopEpo CEpotnGzE- Zyp nly FszJ GstF rtIpF Gsp zCGtxlw FCwtG+ ty
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przEtpF lEp zEopEpo mA tynEplFtyr xply zq Gsp zHGnzxp- LwGszHrs tyGHtGtIp+
Gsp CEzzqF zq GspFp lFFpEGtzyF lEp yzG GEtItlw- jsp CEzzq qzE mtylEA zHGnzxpF
tF rtIpy ty MEptxly pG lw- ’%–]?( lyo htCwpA ’%––[(: Gsp CEzzq qzE DHlyGtGl!
GtIp zHGnzxpF nly mp qzHyo ty QtFspE ’%–4](- QzE xHwGtnlGprzEA zHGnzxpF+
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mppy CEzCzFpo ’ zs lyo alytnsFpGlvHw+ %–]](-
jsp ClEGtGtzytyr lwrzEtGsx GpyoF Gz qlIzE nlGprzEtnlw CEpotnGzEF JtGs
xlyA wpIpwF D: Gsp yHxmpE zq ClEGtGtzyF rEzJF pKCzypyGtlwwA ty D+ lyo Gsp
xzEp nsztnpF Jp slIp+ Gsp xzEp wtvpwA Jp nly ÿo l rzzo zyp qzE Gsp olGl
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FszHwo mp lIztopo-
jsp zFF XlGEtK

Ty nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpxF+ Gsp nzyFpDHpynpF zq xtFnwlFFtqAtyr zmFpEIlGtzyF
lEp xzEp FpEtzHF ty Fzxp nwlFFpF Gsly zGspEF- QzE pKlxCwp+ tG tF CEzmlmwA
JzEFp Gz CEpotnG GslG l CpEFzy Jtww yzG slIp l splEG lGGlnv Jspy sp#Fsp
lnGHlwwA Jtww+ Gsly Itnp IpEFl- jz lnnzHyG qzE GstF+ Jp opÿp l V × V wzFF
xlGEtK + JtGs vv′ mptyr Gsp wzFF tynHEEpo qzE nwlFFtqAtyr l nwlFF v zmFpE!
IlGtzy lF nwlFF v ′ - jACtnlwwA yz wzFF tF tynHEEpo qzE nzEEpnG nwlFFt¨nlGtzyF+
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GslG tF+ vv ˆ $ {v- jz tynzECzElGp(Gsp wzFFpF tyGz Gsp xzopwtyr CEznpFF+

Jp nzHwo xzotqA Gsp Rtyt tyopK Gz v′ˆv′ vv′ C—xv C—xv′ : GstF JzHwo mp Gsp
pKCpnGpo wzFF tynHEEpo mA Gsp ElyozxtBpo EHwp- jstF JzEvF qzE Gsp xHwGt!
nwlFF nlFp+ mHG ty Gsp GJz!nwlFF nlFp slF yz pΓpnG+ Ftynp Gsp nzpffntpyG zq
C—xv C—xv′ tF vv′ ) v′ v - QzE GJz nwlFFpF l mpGGpE lCCEzlns tF Gz JptrsG Gsp
zmFpEIlGtzyF ty nwlFF v mA vv′ - jstF nly mp HFpo ty Gsp xHwGtnwlFF nlFp zywA
tq+ lF l qHynGtzy zq v+ vv′ ozpFy&G opCpyo zy v ′ - ZmFpEIlGtzy JptrsGtyr nly
mp HFpo JtGs Gsp opItlynp lF Jpww- jsp pΓpnG zq zmFpEIlGtzy JptrsGtyr tF Gz
lwGpE Gsp CEtzE CEzmlmtwtGA zy Gsp nwlFFpF- Ty l GpExtylw yzop+(Gsp pxCtEtnlw
MlApF EHwp txCwtpF GslG Jp nwlFFtqA Gz nwlFF v’x( ˆ lEr xtyv ℓ ℓv C—xℓ -
XtFFtyr fEpotnGzE alwHpF

iHCCzFp zHE olGl slF Fzxp xtFFtyr CEpotnGzE IlwHpF ty Fzxp zE lww zq Gsp
IlEtlmwpF- bp xtrsG otFnlEo lyA zmFpEIlGtzy JtGs Fzxp xtFFtyr IlwHpF+ mHG
GstF nzHwo wplo Gz FpEtzHF opCwpGtzy zq Gsp GEltytyr FpG- LwGpEylGtIpwA Jp
xtrsG GEA Gz ¨ww ty ’txCHGp( Gsp xtFFtyr IlwHpF+ JtGs FlA Gsp xply zq GslG
CEpotnGzE zIpE Gsp yzyxtFFtyr zmFpEIlGtzyF- QzE GEpp!mlFpo xzopwF+ GspEp
lEp GJz mpGGpE lCCEzlnspF- jsp ËFG tF lCCwtnlmwp Gz nlGprzEtnlw CEpotnGzEF9
Jp FtxCwA xlvp l ypJ nlGprzEA qzE ˜xtFFtyr-˙ QEzx GstF Jp xtrsG otF!
nzIpE GslG zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGs xtFFtyr IlwHpF qzE Fzxp xplFHEpxpyG mpslIp
otΓpEpyGwA Gsly GszFp JtGs yzyxtFFtyr IlwHpF- jsp Fpnzyo xzEp rpypElw
lCCEzlns tF Gsp nzyFGEHnGtzy zq FHEEzrlGp IlEtlmwpF- bspy nzyFtopEtyr l
CEpotnGzE qzE l FCwtG+ Jp HFp zywA Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF qzE Jstns GslG CEpotnGzE
tF yzG xtFFtyr- SlItyr nszFpy Gsp mpFG ’CEtxlEA( CEpotnGzE lyo FCwtG CztyG+
Jp qzEx l wtFG zq FHEEzrlGp CEpotnGzEF lyo FCwtG CztyGF- jsp ËFG FHEEzrlGp
tF Gsp CEpotnGzE lyo nzEEpFCzyotyr FCwtG CztyG GslG mpFG xtxtnF Gsp FCwtG zq
Gsp GEltytyr olGl lnstpIpo mA Gsp CEtxlEA FCwtG- jsp Fpnzyo FHEEzrlGp tF
Gsp CEpotnGzE lyo nzEEpFCzyotyr FCwtG CztyG GslG ozpF Fpnzyo mpFG+ lyo Fz
zy- bspy Fpyotyr zmFpEIlGtzyF ozJy Gsp GEpp ptGspE ty Gsp GEltytyr CslFp
zE oHEtyr CEpotnGtzy+ Jp HFp Gsp FHEEzrlGp FCwtGF ty zEopE+ tq Gsp CEtxlEA
FCwtGGtyr CEpotnGzE tF xtFFtyr- iHEEzrlGp FCwtGF pKCwztG nzEEpwlGtzyF mpGJppy
CEpotnGzEF Gz GEA lyo lwwpItlGp Gsp pΓpnG zq xtFFtyr olGl- jsp strspE Gsp nzE!
EpwlGtzy mpGJppy Gsp xtFFtyr CEpotnGzE lyo Gsp zGspE CEpotnGzEF+ Gsp FxlwwpE
Gsp wzFF zq tyqzExlGtzy oHp Gz Gsp xtFFtyr IlwHp- jsp rpypElw CEzmwpx zq
xtFFtyr olGl tF otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy –-[-
bsA MtylEA iCwtGF3

hlGspE Gsly FCwtGGtyr plns yzop tyGz uHFG GJz rEzHCF lG plns FGlrp ’lF
lmzIp(+ Jp xtrsG nzyFtopE xHwGtJlA FCwtGF tyGz xzEp Gsly GJz rEzHCF- bstwp
GstF nly FzxpGtxpF mp HFpqHw+ tG tF yzG l rzzo rpypElw FGElGprA- jsp CEzmwpx
tF GslG xHwGtJlA FCwtGF qElrxpyG Gsp olGl Gzz DHtnvwA+ wplItyr tyFHffntpyG
olGl lG Gsp ypKG wpIpw ozJy- Spynp Jp JzHwo JlyG Gz HFp FHns FCwtGF zywA
Jspy yppopo- itynp xHwGtJlA FCwtGF nly mp lnstpIpo mA l FpEtpF zq mtylEA
FCwtGF+ Gsp wlGGpE lEp CEpqpEEpo-
“%= –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
ZGspE jEpp,MHtwotyr fEznpoHEpF

jsp otFnHFFtzy lmzIp qznHFpF zy Gsp NLhj ’nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lyo EprEpFFtzy
GEpp( txCwpxpyGlGtzy zq GEppF- jsp zGspE CzCHwlE xpGszozwzrA tF TO“ lyo
tGF wlGpE IpEFtzyF+ N?-4 lyo N4-$ ’gHtywly+ %––“(- PlEwA IpEFtzyF zq Gsp
CEzrElx JpEp wtxtGpo Gz nlGprzEtnlw CEpotnGzEF+ lyo HFpo l GzC!ozJy EHwp
JtGs yz CEHytyr- btGs xzEp EpnpyG opIpwzCxpyGF+ N4-$ slF mpnzxp DHtGp
FtxtwlE Gz NLhj- jsp xzFG Ftryt¨nlyG qplGHEp HytDHp Gz N4-$ tF l Fnspxp
qzE opEtItyr EHwp FpGF- LqGpE l GEpp tF rEzJy+ Gsp FCwtGGtyr EHwpF GslG opÿp Gsp
GpExtylw yzopF nly FzxpGtxpF mp FtxCwt¨po9 GslG tF+ zyp zE xzEp nzyotGtzy
nly mp oEzCCpo JtGszHG nslyrtyr Gsp FHmFpG zq zmFpEIlGtzyF GslG qlww ty
Gsp yzop- bp pyo HC JtGs l FtxCwt¨po FpG zq EHwpF opÿtyr plns GpExtylw
yzop: GspFp yz wzyrpE qzwwzJ l GEpp FGEHnGHEp+ mHG GsptE FtxCwtntGA xtrsG
xlvp Gspx xzEp lGGElnGtIp Gz Gsp HFpE-
typlE NzxmtylGtzy iCwtGF

hlGspE Gsly EpFGEtnGtyr FCwtGF Gz mp zq Gsp(qzEx cH ≤ F+ zyp nly lwwzJ FCwtGF
lwzyr wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF zq Gsp qzEx lH cH ≤ F- jsp JptrsGF lH lyo
FCwtG CztyG F lEp zCGtxtBpo Gz xtytxtBp Gsp EpwpIlyG nEtGpEtzy ’FHns lF Gsp
Rtyt tyopK(- bstwp GstF nly txCEzIp Gsp CEpotnGtIp CzJpE zq Gsp GEpp+ tG nly
sHEG tyGpECEpGlmtwtGA- NzxCHGlGtzylwwA+ Gsp otFnEpGpypFF zq Gsp FCwtG CztyG
FplEns CEpnwHopF Gsp HFp zq l FxzzGs zCGtxtBlGtzy qzE Gsp JptrsGF- L mpGGpE
JlA Gz tynzECzElGp wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy FCwtGF tF ty Gsp stpElEnstnlw xtKGHEpF
zq pKCpEGF ’SXP( xzopw+ Gsp GzCtn zq ipnGtzy –-4-
TyFGlmtwtGA zq jEppF
Zyp xluzE CEzmwpx JtGs GEppF tF GsptE strs IlEtlynp- ZqGpy l Fxlww nslyrp
ty Gsp olGl nly EpFHwG ty l IpEA otΓpEpyG FpEtpF zq FCwtGF+ xlvtyr tyGpECEp!
GlGtzy FzxpJslG CEpnlEtzHF- jsp xluzE EplFzy qzE GstF tyFGlmtwtGA tF Gsp
stpElEnstnlw ylGHEp zq Gsp CEznpFF9 Gsp pΓpnG zq ly pEEzE ty Gsp GzC FCwtG
tF CEzClrlGpo ozJy Gz lww zq Gsp FCwtGF mpwzJ tG- Zyp nly lwwpItlGp GstF Gz
Fzxp oprEpp mA GEAtyr Gz HFp l xzEp FGlmwp FCwtG nEtGpEtzy+ mHG Gsp tyspEpyG
tyFGlmtwtGA tF yzG EpxzIpo- TG tF Gsp CEtnp Gz mp Clto qzE pFGtxlGtyr l FtxCwp+
GEpp!mlFpo FGEHnGHEp qEzx Gsp olGl- Mlrrtyr ’ipnGtzy ]-fi( lIpElrpF xlyA
GEppF Gz EpoHnp GstF IlEtlynp-
lnv zq ixzzGsypFF
LyzGspE wtxtGlGtzy zq GEppF tF Gsp wlnv zq FxzzGsypFF zq Gsp CEpotnGtzy FHE!
qlnp+ lF nly mp Fppy ty Gsp mzGGzx EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp –-=- Ty nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
JtGs $#% wzFF+ GstF ozpFy&G sHEG xHns+ Ftynp mtlF ty pFGtxlGtzy zq Gsp nwlFF
CEzmlmtwtGtpF slF l wtxtGpo pΓpnG- SzJpIpE+ GstF nly oprElop CpEqzExlynp
ty Gsp EprEpFFtzy FpGGtyr+ JspEp Jp JzHwo yzExlwwA pKCpnG Gsp HyopEwAtyr
qHynGtzy Gz mp FxzzGs- jsp XLhi CEznpoHEp+ opFnEtmpo ty ipnGtzy –-?+
–-= jEpp,MlFpo cpGszoF “%“
uLM D 8W2W iClx olGl9 nzyqHFtzy ElGpF qzE Gsp %fi,yzop GEpp ’nszFpy mA nEzFF8
IlwtolGtzy( zy Gsp GpFG olGl- ZIpElww pEEzE ElGp tF –,“0-
fEpotnGpo
jEHp pKltw FClK
pKltw 4fi-“0 ?-$0
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nly mp ItpJpo lF l xzot¨nlGtzy zq NLhj opFtrypo Gz lwwpItlGp GstF wlnv zq

FxzzGsypFF-
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LyzGspE CEzmwpx JtGs GEppF tF GsptE otffnHwGA ty xzopwtyr lootGtIp FGEHn!
GHEp- Ty EprEpFFtzy+ FHCCzFp+ qzE pKlxCwp+ GslG d ˆ n0 T’c0 ı G0 ()n= T’c= ı
G= ( ) ε JspEp ε tF BpEz!xply yztFp- jspy l mtylEA GEpp xtrsG xlvp tGF ËFG
FCwtG zy c0 yplE G0 - LG Gsp ypKG wpIpw ozJy tG JzHwo slIp Gz FCwtG mzGs yzopF
zy c= lG G= ty zEopE Gz nlCGHEp Gsp lootGtIp FGEHnGHEp- jstF xtrsG slCCpy
JtGs FHffntpyG olGl+ mHG Gsp xzopw tF rtIpy yz FCpntlw pynzHElrpxpyG Gz ÿo
FHns FGEHnGHEp- Tq GspEp JpEp Gpy ElGspE Gsly GJz lootGtIp pΓpnGF+ tG JzHwo
Glvp xlyA qzEGHtGzHF FCwtGF Gz EpnEplGp Gsp FGEHnGHEp+ lyo Gsp olGl lylwAFG
JzHwo mp slEo CEpFFpo Gz EpnzrytBp tG ty Gsp pFGtxlGpo GEpp- jsp ˜mwlxp˙
spEp nly lrlty mp lGGEtmHGpo Gz Gsp mtylEA GEpp FGEHnGHEp+ Jstns slF mzGs
loIlyGlrpF lyo oElJmlnvF- Lrlty Gsp XLhi xpGszo ’ipnGtzy –-?( rtIpF
HC GstF GEpp FGEHnGHEp ty zEopE Gz nlCGHEp lootGtIp FGEHnGHEp-
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bp lCCwtpo Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy GEpp xpGszozwzrA Gz Gsp FClK pKlxCwp tyGEz!
oHnpo plEwtpE- bp HFpo Gsp opItlynp xplFHEp Gz rEzJ Gsp GEpp lyo xtF!
nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ElGp Gz CEHyp tG- QtrHEp –-? FszJF Gsp %$!qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy
pEEzE ElGp lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp FtBp zq Gsp CEHypo GEpp+ lwzyr JtGs ±= FGly!
olEo pEEzEF zq Gsp xply+ qEzx Gsp Gpy EpCwtnlGtzyF- jsp GpFG pEEzE nHEIp tF
FszJy ty zElyrp- YzGp GslG Gsp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy pEEzE ElGpF lEp tyopKpo mA
l FpDHpynp zq IlwHpF zq α lyo yzG GEpp FtBp: qzE GEppF rEzJy ty otΓpEpyG qzwoF+
l IlwHp zq α xtrsG txCwA otΓpEpyG FtBpF- jsp FtBpF FszJy lG Gsp mlFp zq Gsp
CwzG EpqpE Gz Kjα K+ Gsp FtBpF zq Gsp CEHypo zEtrtylw GEpp-
jsp pEEzE 7lGGpyF zHG lG lEzHyo %fi GpExtylw yzopF+ rtItyr Gsp CEHypo GEpp
ty QtrHEp –-4- Zq Gsp %“ otFGtynG qplGHEpF nszFpy mA Gsp GEpp+ %% zIpEwlC JtGs
Gsp %[ Ftryt¨nlyG qplGHEpF ty Gsp lootGtIp xzopw ’jlmwp –-=(- jsp zIpElww
pEEzE ElGp FszJy ty jlmwp –-“ tF lmzHG 4$0 strspE Gsly qzE Gsp lootGtIp
xzopw ty jlmwp –-%-
NzyFtopE Gsp EtrsGxzFG mElynspF zq Gsp GEpp- bp mElyns Gz Gsp EtrsG
JtGs l FClx JlEytyr tq xzEp Gsly 4-40 zq Gsp nslElnGpEF lEp Gsp / Ftry-
“%? –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
α
176 21 7 5 3 2 0
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0 10 20 30 40
Tree Size
QTRIFD 8W3W hpFHwGF qzE FClx pKlxCwp- jsp mwHp nHEIp tF Gsp %/,qzwo nEzFF,Ilw,
tolGtzy pFGtxlGp zq xtFnwlFFt6nlGtzy ElGp lF l qHynGtzy zq GEpp FtBp+ JtGs FGlyolEo
pEEzE mlEF- jsp xtytxHx znnHEF lG l GEpp FtBp JtGs lmzHG %fi GpExtylw yzopF ’HFtyr
Gsp 2zyp,FGlyolEo,pEEzE5 EHwp(- jsp zElyrp nHEIp tF Gsp GpFG pEEzE+ Jstns GElnvF
Gsp Na pEEzE DHtGp nwzFpwA- jsp nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy tF tyopKpo mA IlwHpF zq α+ FszJy
lmzIp- jsp GEpp FtBpF FszJy mpwzJ EpqpE Gz Vjα V+ Gsp FtBp zq Gsp zEtrtylw GEpp tyopKpo
mA α-
SzJpIpE+ tq ty lootGtzy Gsp CsElFp sC znnHEF qEpDHpyGwA+ Gspy GstF tF wtvpwA

Gz mp nzxClyA mHFtypFF lyo Jp nwlFFtqA lF pxltw- Lww zq Gsp == nlFpF ty
Gsp GpFG FpG FlGtFqAtyr GspFp nEtGpEtl JpEp nzEEpnGwA nwlFFt¨po- Tq Gsp Fpnzyo
nzyotGtzy tF yzG xpG+ lyo ty lootGtzy Gsp lIpElrp wpyrGs zq EpCplGpo nlCtGlw
wpGGpEF NLfLaP tF wlErpE Gsly =-–+ Gspy Jp nwlFFtqA lF FClx- Zq Gsp ==fi GpFG
nlFpF+ zywA FpIpy JpEp xtFnwlFFt¨po-
Ty xpotnlw nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpxF+ Gsp GpExF FpyFtGtItGA lyo FCpnt¨ntGA
lEp HFpo Gz nslElnGpEtBp l EHwp- jspA lEp opÿpo lF qzwwzJF9
ipyFtGtItGA9 CEzmlmtwtGA zq CEpotnGtyr otFplFp rtIpy GEHp FGlGp tF otFplFp-
iCpnt¨ntGA9 CEzmlmtwtGA zq CEpotnGtyr yzy!otFplFp rtIpy GEHp FGlGp tF yzy!

otFplFp-
–-= jEpp,MlFpo cpGszoF “%4
pxlRU
600/1536
ns.9$!$444
ns.2$!$444
pxlRU gClx
280/1177 48/359
EpxMup9$!$5 sC9$!3$4
EpxMup2$!$5 sC2$!3$4
pxlRU gClx gClx pxlRU

180/1065 9/112 26/337 0/22
ns+9$!080 rpMErp9$!04 dLfLaP9=!8$6

ns+2$!080 rpMErp2$!04 dLfLaP2=!8$6
pxlRU pxlRU gClx pxlRU gClx gClx

80/861 100/204 6/109 0/3 19/110 7/227
rpMErp9$!$$4 dLfLaP9=!64$4 08889$!47

rpMErp2$!$$4 dLfLaP2=!64$4 08882$!47
pxlRU pxlRU pxlRU gClx gClx pxlRU

80/652 0/209 36/123 16/81 18/109 0/1
sC9$!$> eEpp9$!$54
sC2$!$> eEpp2$!$54
pxlRU pxlRU pxlRU gClx

77/423 3/229 16/94 9/29
dLfXLc90$!4 migRApgg9$!034
dLfXLc20$!4 migRApgg2$!034
pxlRU pxlRU pxlRU gClx

20/238 57/185 14/89 3/5
EpnpRup9$!0=4 poi9$!$34
EpnpRup2$!0=4 poi2$!$34
pxlRU gClx pxlRU pxlRU

19/236 1/2 48/113 9/72
MiE90!=
MiE20!=
pxlRU gClx
37/101 1/12
QTRIFD 8W4W jsp CEHypo GEpp qzE Gsp FClx pKlxCwp- jsp FCwtG IlEtlmwpF lEp
FszJy ty mwHp zy Gsp mElynspF+ lyo Gsp nwlFFt6nlGtzy tF FszJy ty pIpEA yzop-jsp
yHxmpEF HyopE Gsp GpExtylw yzopF tyotnlGp xtFnwlFFt6nlGtzy ElGpF zy Gsp GpFG olGl-
“%[ –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
1.0
• • • • • • • • •••••
• •••••••
•• •••••
•••
•
• ••••
•• •
0.8
• •
•• •
• ••
•
•
0.6
••
Sensitivity
Tree (0.95)
GAM (0.98)
Weighted Tree (0.90)
0.4
•
0.2
•
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Specificity
QTRIFD 8W5W hZN nHEIpF qzE Gsp nwlFFt6nlGtzy EHwpF 6G Gz Gsp FClx olGl- NHEIpF
GslG lEp nwzFpE Gz Gsp yzEGsplFG nzEypE EpCEpFpyG mpGGpE nwlFFt6pEF- Ty GstF nlFp Gsp
RLc nwlFFt6pE ozxtylGpF Gsp GEppF- jsp JptrsGpo GEpp lnstpIpF mpGGpE FpyFtGtItGA
qzE strspE FCpnt6ntGA Gsly Gsp HyJptrsGpo GEpp- jsp yHxmpEF ty Gsp wprpyo EpCEp,
FpyG Gsp lEpl HyopE Gsp nHEIp-
Tq Jp Gstyv zq FClx lyo pxltw lF Gsp CEpFpynp lyo lmFpynp zq otFplFp+ Ep!
FCpnGtIpwA+ Gspy qEzx jlmwp –-“ Jp slIp
““,?
ipyFtGtItGA ˆ %$$ × ˆ ][,“0W
““,? ) 4,“
4fi,“
iCpnt¨ntGA ˆ %$$ × ˆ –“,?0,
4fi,“ ) ?,$
Ty GstF lylwAFtF Jp slIp HFpo pDHlw wzFFpF- LF mpqzEp wpG vv′ mp Gsp
wzFF lFFzntlGpo JtGs CEpotnGtyr l nwlFF v zmupnG lF nwlFF v ′ - MA IlEAtyr Gsp
EpwlGtIp FtBpF zq Gsp wzFFpF $0 lyo 0$ + Jp tynEplFp Gsp FpyFtGtItGA lyo
opnEplFp Gsp FCpnt¨ntGA zq Gsp EHwp+ zE Itnp IpEFl- Ty GstF pKlxCwp+ Jp JlyG
Gz lIzto xlEvtyr rzzo pxltw lF FClx+ lyo GsHF Jp JlyG Gsp FCpnt¨ntGA Gz
mp IpEA strs- bp nly lnstpIp GstF mA FpGGtyr $0 / % FlA+ JtGs 0$ ˆ %-
jsp MlApF& EHwp ty plns GpExtylw yzop nwlFFt¨pF Gz nwlFF % ’FClx( tq Gsp
CEzCzEGtzy zq FClx tF ≥ $0 .’ 0$ ) $0 (+ lyo nwlFF BpEz zGspEJtFp- jsp
–-“ fhTc9 MHxC SHyGtyr “%fi
EpnptIpE zCpElGtyr nslElnGpEtFGtn nHEIp ’hZN( tF l nzxxzywA HFpo FHxxlEA

qzE lFFpFFtyr Gsp GElopzΓ mpGJppy FpyFtGtItGA lyo FCpnt¨ntGA- TG tF l CwzG zq
Gsp FpyFtGtItGA IpEFHF FCpnt¨ntGA lF Jp IlEA Gsp ClElxpGpEF zq l nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
EHwp- alEAtyr Gsp wzFF $0 mpGJppy $-% lyo %$+ lyo lCCwAtyr MlApF& EHwp Gz
Gsp %fi!yzop GEpp FpwpnGpo ty QtrHEp –-?+ CEzoHnpo Gsp hZN nHEIp FszJy
ty
A QtrHEp –-[- jsp FGlyolEo pEEzE zq plns nHEIp yplE $-– tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA
$,–’% } $,–(.%4“[ ˆ $,$$]+ lyo spynp Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzE zq Gsp otΓpEpynp
tF lmzHG $,$%- bp Fpp GslG ty zEopE Gz lnstpIp l FCpnt¨ntGA zq nwzFp Gz %$$0+
Gsp FpyFtGtItGA slF Gz oEzC Gz lmzHG 4$0- jsp lEpl HyopE Gsp nHEIp tF l
nzxxzywA HFpo DHlyGtGlGtIp FHxxlEA: pKGpyotyr Gsp nHEIp wtyplEwA ty plns
otEpnGtzy Fz GslG tG tF opÿpo zIpE ”$W %$$fl+ Gsp lEpl tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA $,–4-
QzE nzxClEtFzy+ Jp slIp tynwHopo Gsp hZN nHEIp qzE Gsp RLX xzopw ¨G
Gz GspFp olGl ty ipnGtzy –-=: tG rtIpF l mpGGpE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy EHwp qzE lyA wzFF+
JtGs ly lEpl zq $,–]-
hlGspE Gsly uHFG xzotqAtyr Gsp MlApF EHwp ty Gsp yzopF+ tG tF mpGGpE Gz
Glvp qHww lnnzHyG zq Gsp HypDHlw wzFFpF ty rEzJtyr Gsp GEpp+ lF JlF ozyp
ty ipnGtzy –-=- btGs uHFG GJz nwlFFpF $ lyo %+ wzFFpF xlA mp tynzECzElGpo
tyGz Gsp GEpp!rEzJtyr CEznpFF mA HFtyr JptrsG vW0}v qzE ly zmFpEIlGtzy ty
nwlFF v- SpEp Jp nszFp $0 ˆ 4W 0$ ˆ % lyo ¨G Gsp Flxp FtBp GEpp lF mpqzEp
’Kjα K ˆ %fi(- jstF GEpp slF strspE FpyFtGtItGA lG strs IlwHpF zq Gsp FCpnt¨ntGA
Gsly Gsp zEtrtylw GEpp+ mHG ozpF xzEp CzzEwA lG Gsp zGspE pKGEpxp- TGF GzC
qpJ FCwtGF lEp Gsp Flxp lF Gsp zEtrtylw GEpp+ lyo Gspy tG opClEGF qEzx tG-
QzE GstF lCCwtnlGtzy Gsp GEpp rEzJy HFtyr $0 ˆ 4 tF nwplEwA mpGGpE Gsly Gsp
zEtrtylw GEpp-
jsp lEpl HyopE Gsp hZN nHEIp+ HFpo lmzIp+ tF FzxpGtxpF nlwwpo Gsp n,
FGlGtFGtn- TyGpEpFGtyrwA+ tG nly mp FszJy GslG Gsp lEpl HyopE Gsp hZN nHEIp
tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp Xlyy!bstGypA k FGlGtFGtn ’zE btwnzKzy Elyv!FHx GpFG(+
qzE Gsp xpotly otΓpEpynp mpGJppy Gsp CEpotnGtzy FnzEpF ty Gsp GJz rEzHCF
’SlywpA lyo XnYptw+ %–]=(- QzE pIlwHlGtyr Gsp nzyGEtmHGtzy zq ly lootGtzylw
CEpotnGzE Jspy loopo Gz l FGlyolEo xzopw+ Gsp n!FGlGtFGtn xlA yzG mp ly
tyqzExlGtIp xplFHEp- jsp ypJ CEpotnGzE nly mp IpEA Ftryt¨nlyG ty GpExF
zq Gsp nslyrp ty xzopw opItlynp+ mHG FszJ zywA l Fxlww tynEplFp ty Gsp n!
FGlGtFGtn- QzE pKlxCwp+ EpxzIlw zq Gsp strswA Ftryt¨nlyG GpEx rpzErp qEzx
Gsp xzopw zq jlmwp –-= EpFHwGF ty l opnEplFp ty Gsp n!FGlGtFGtn zq wpFF Gsly
$,$%- TyFGplo+ tG tF HFpqHw Gz pKlxtyp szJ Gsp lootGtzylw CEpotnGzE nslyrpF
Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy zy ly tyotItoHlw FlxCwp mlFtF- L rzzo otFnHFFtzy zq GstF
CztyG lCCplEF ty Nzzv ’=$$fi(-
–-“ fhTc9 MHxC SHyGtyr

jEpp!mlFpo xpGszoF ’qzE EprEpFFtzy( ClEGtGtzy Gsp qplGHEp FClnp tyGz mzK!
FslCpo EprtzyF+ Gz GEA Gz xlvp Gsp EpFCzyFp lIpElrpF ty plns mzK lF otΓpE!
“%] –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
pyG lF CzFFtmwp- jsp FCwtGGtyr EHwpF opÿtyr Gsp mzKpF lEp EpwlGpo Gz plns
GsEzHrs l mtylEA GEpp+ qlntwtGlGtyr GsptE tyGpECEpGlGtzy-
jsp ClGtpyG EHwp tyoHnGtzy xpGszo ’fhTX( lwFz ÿoF mzKpF ty Gsp qplGHEp
FClnp+ mHG FppvF mzKpF ty Jstns Gsp EpFCzyFp lIpElrp tF strs- Spynp tG wzzvF
qzE xlKtxl ty Gsp GlErpG qHynGtzy+ ly pKpEntFp vyzJy lF mHxC sHyGtyr- ’Tq
xtytxl ElGspE Gsly xlKtxl lEp opFtEpo+ zyp FtxCwA JzEvF JtGs Gsp yprlGtIp
EpFCzyFp IlwHpF-(
fhTX lwFz otΓpEF qEzx GEpp!mlFpo ClEGtGtzytyr xpGszoF ty GslG Gsp mzK
opÿtGtzyF lEp yzG opFnEtmpo mA l mtylEA GEpp- jstF xlvpF tyGpECEpGlGtzy zq
Gsp nzwwpnGtzy zq EHwpF xzEp otffnHwG: szJpIpE+ mA EpxzItyr Gsp mtylEA GEpp
nzyFGEltyG+ Gsp tyotItoHlw EHwpF lEp zqGpy FtxCwpE-
jsp xlty mzK nzyFGEHnGtzy xpGszo ty fhTX JzEvF qEzx Gsp GzC ozJy+
FGlEGtyr JtGs l mzK nzyGltytyr lww zq Gsp olGl- jsp mzK tF nzxCEpFFpo lwzyr
zyp qlnp mA l Fxlww lxzHyG+ lyo Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF Gspy qlwwtyr zHGFtop Gsp
mzK lEp Cppwpo zΓ- jsp qlnp nszFpy qzE nzxCEpFFtzy tF Gsp zyp EpFHwGtyr ty
Gsp wlErpFG mzK xply+ lqGpE Gsp nzxCEpFFtzy tF CpEqzExpo- jspy Gsp CEznpFF
tF EpCplGpo+ FGzCCtyr Jspy Gsp nHEEpyG mzK nzyGltyF Fzxp xtytxHx yHxmpE
zq olGl CztyGF-
jstF CEznpFF tF twwHFGElGpo ty QtrHEp –-fi- jspEp lEp =$$ olGl CztyGF Hyt!
qzExwA otFGEtmHGpo zIpE Gsp HytG FDHlEp- jsp nzwzE!nzopo CwzG tyotnlGpF Gsp
EpFCzyFp d Glvtyr Gsp IlwHp % ’Epo( Jspy $,4 ı c0 ı $,] lyo $,? ı c= ı
$,[- lyo BpEz ’mwHp( zGspEJtFp- jsp ClypwF FszJF Gsp FHnnpFFtIp mzKpF qzHyo
mA Gsp GzC!ozJy Cppwtyr CEznpoHEp+ Cppwtyr zΓ l CEzCzEGtzy α ˆ $,% zq Gsp
Epxltytyr olGl CztyGF lG plns FGlrp-
QtrHEp –-] FszJF Gsp xply zq Gsp EpFCzyFp IlwHpF ty Gsp mzK+ lF Gsp mzK
tF nzxCEpFFpo-
LqGpE Gsp GzC!ozJy FpDHpynp tF nzxCHGpo+ fhTX EpIpEFpF Gsp CEznpFF+
pKClyotyr lwzyr lyA porp+ tq FHns ly pKClyFtzy tynEplFpF Gsp mzK xply-
jstF tF nlwwpo ClFGtyr- itynp Gsp GzC!ozJy CEznpoHEp tF rEppoA lG plns FGpC+
FHns ly pKClyFtzy tF zqGpy CzFFtmwp-
jsp EpFHwG zq GspFp FGpCF tF l FpDHpynp zq mzKpF+ JtGs otΓpEpyG yHxmpEF
zq zmFpEIlGtzy ty plns mzK- NEzFF!IlwtolGtzy+ nzxmtypo JtGs Gsp uHorxpyG
zq Gsp olGl lylwAFG+ tF HFpo Gz nszzFp Gsp zCGtxlw mzK FtBp-
OpyzGp mA M0 Gsp tyotnpF zq Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF ty Gsp mzK qzHyo ty FGpC %-
jsp fhTX CEznpoHEp Gspy EpxzIpF Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF ty M0 qEzx Gsp GEltytyr
FpG+ lyo Gsp GJz!FGpC CEznpFF1GzC ozJy Cppwtyr+ qzwwzJpo mA mzGGzx!HC
ClFGtyr1tF EpCplGpo zy Gsp Epxltytyr olGlFpG- jstF pyGtEp CEznpFF tF Ep!
CplGpo FpIpElw GtxpF+ CEzoHntyr l FpDHpynp zq mzKpF M0 W M= W , , , W Mv - Plns
mzK tF opÿpo mA l FpG zq EHwpF tyIzwItyr l FHmFpG zq CEpotnGzEF wtvp
’l0 ≤ c0 ≤ m0 ( lyo ’m0 ≤ c˜ ≤ m= (,
L FHxxlEA zq Gsp fhTX CEznpoHEp tF rtIpy LwrzEtGsx –-“-
fhTX nly slyowp l nlGprzEtnlw CEpotnGzE mA nzyFtopEtyr lww ClEGtGtzyF zq
Gsp CEpotnGzE+ lF ty NLhj- XtFFtyr IlwHpF lEp lwFz slyowpo ty l xlyypE
FtxtwlE Gz NLhj- fhTX tF opFtrypo qzE EprEpFFtzy ’DHlyGtGlGtIp EpFCzyFp
–-“ fhTc9 MHxC SHyGtyr “%–
1 2 3 4
oo o oooo o oo o oooo o oo o oooo o oo o oooo o
oo oo oo oo
o o o o oo ooo o oooo oo o o o o o oo ooo o oooo oo o o o o o oo ooo o oooo oo o o o o o oo ooo o oooo oo o
oo oo ooo oo ooo o oo oo ooo oo ooo o oo oo ooo oo ooo o oo oo ooo oo ooo o
oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo
o oo o o o oo o o o oo o o o oo o o
o oo oo o o o o ooooo ooo
o o oo oo o o o o ooooo ooo
o
o
o o
o o
o o
o
oo o oo o oo ooo o oo
oo oo o oo o oo ooo o oo
oo
o o o o oooo o o oo o oo o o o o o o oooo o o oo o oo o o o o o o oooo o o oo o oo o o o o o o oooo o o oo o oo o o
o
o o o o o ooo o o o
o o o o o ooo o o o
o o o o o ooo o o o
o o o o o ooo o o
oooooo o o oo o o o
o oooooo o o oo o o o
o
o o o o
o ooo oooo o o o oo o o o o o o
o ooo oooo o o o oo o o
oo o o o o o oo o o o o o oo o o o o o oo o o o o o
o o o o o o o o
5 6 7 8
oo oo oo oo
oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo
o oo oo o o o o ooooo ooo
o
o o o o
oo o oo oo oo ooo o oo
oo oo o oo oo oo ooo o oo
oo
o oo o o oo o o oo o o oo o
o o o o oooo o oooo o ooo o o o o o o oooo o oooo o ooo o o o o o o oooo o oooo o ooo o o o o o o oooo o oooo o ooo o o
o o o o o oo o o o o o o oo o o o o o o oo o o o o o o oo o
o o o o o o o o
oooooo o o oo o o o
o
o o o o
o o o o oo o o o o o o
o o o o oo o o
o o oooo o oooo o o o o o oooo o oooo o o o o o oooo o oooo o o o o o oooo o oooo o o o
o o o o o o o o
12 17 22 27
oo oo oo oo
oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo oo
oo oo o o o o oo
oo
o oo oo o o o o ooooo ooo o oo oo o o o o ooooo ooo o oo oo o o o o ooooo ooo o oo oo o o o o ooooo ooo
o
oo o oo oo oo ooo o oo o o o
oo o oo oo oo ooo o oo o o
o o o o
o o o o oooo o o oo o oo o o o o o o oooo o o oo o oo o o o o o o oooo o o oo o oo o o o o o o oooo o o oo o oo o o
o o o o o oo o o o o o o o oo o o o o o o o oo o o o o o o o oo o o
o
ooooo o o o o o o o
ooooo o o o o o o o
ooooo o o o o o o o
ooooo o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o
o o ooo ooo o o o oo
o o o o o
o o o o o
o o o o o
o o o o
oo o o o o o o oo o o o o o o oo o o o o o o oo o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o
QTRIFD 8W6W TwwHFGElGtzy zq fhTc lwrzEtGsx- jspEp lEp GJz nwlFFpF+ tyotnlGpo
mA Gsp mwHp ’nwlFF /( lyo Epo ’nwlFF %( CztyGF- jsp CEznpoHEp FGlEGF JtGs l EpnGlyrwp
’mEzvpy mwlnv wtypF( FHEEzHyotyr lww zq Gsp olGl+ lyo Gspy CppwF lJlA CztyGF lwzyr
zyp porp mA l CEpFCpnt6po lxzHyG ty zEopE Gz xlKtxtBp Gsp xply zq Gsp CztyGF
Epxltytyr ty Gsp mzK- iGlEGtyr lG Gsp GzC wpqG Clypw+ Gsp FpDHpynp zq CppwtyrF tF
FszJy+ HyGtw l CHEp Epo Eprtzy tF tFzwlGpo ty Gsp mzGGzx EtrsG Clypw- jsp tGpElGtzy
yHxmpE tF tyotnlGpo lG Gsp GzC zq plns Clypw-
1.0
•
•
0.8
•
•
Box Mean
0.6
•
•
•
0.4
•
••
••
••
0.2
•••
• • • •
• • • • • •
50 100 150
Number of Observations in Box
QTRIFD 8W7W MzK xply lF l qHynGtzy zq yHxmpE zq zmFpEIlGtzyF ty Gsp mzK-

“=/ –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
LwrzEtGsx –-2 flGtpyG hHwp TyoHnGtzy XpGszo-

%- iGlEG JtGs lww zq Gsp GEltytyr olGl+ lyo l xlKtxlw mzK nzyGltytyr lww
zq Gsp olGl-
=- NzyFtopE FsEtyvtyr Gsp mzK mA nzxCEpFFtyr zyp qlnp+ Fz lF Gz Cppw zΓ

Gsp CEzCzEGtzy α zq zmFpEIlGtzyF slItyr ptGspE Gsp strspFG IlwHpF zq
l CEpotnGzE cH + zE Gsp wzJpFG- NszzFp Gsp Cppwtyr GslG CEzoHnpF Gsp
strspFG EpFCzyFp xply ty Gsp Epxltytyr mzK- ’jACtnlwwA α ˆ $,$4 zE
$,%$-(
“- hpCplG FGpC = HyGtw Fzxp xtytxlw yHxmpE zq zmFpEIlGtzyF ’FlA %$(

Epxlty ty Gsp mzK-
?- PKClyo Gsp mzK lwzyr lyA qlnp+ lF wzyr lF Gsp EpFHwGtyr mzK xply
tynEplFpF-
4- iGpCF %8? rtIp l FpDHpynp zq mzKpF+ JtGs otΓpEpyG yHxmpEF zq zmFpE!
IlGtzyF ty plns mzK- kFp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Gz nszzFp l xpxmpE zq Gsp
FpDHpynp- Nlww Gsp mzK M0 -
[- hpxzIp Gsp olGl ty mzK M0 qEzx Gsp olGlFpG lyo EpCplG FGpCF =84 Gz
zmGlty l Fpnzyo mzK+ lyo nzyGtyHp Gz rpG lF xlyA mzKpF lF opFtEpo-
IlEtlmwp(: l GJz!nwlFF zHGnzxp nly mp slyowpo FtxCwA mA nzotyr tG lF $ lyo

%- jspEp tF yz FtxCwp JlA Gz oplw JtGs v / = nwlFFpF FtxHwGlypzHFwA9 zyp
lCCEzlns tF Gz EHy fhTX FpClElGpwA qzE plns nwlFF IpEFHF l mlFpwtyp nwlFF-
Ly loIlyGlrp zq fhTX zIpE NLhj tF tGF ClGtpynp- MpnlHFp zq tGF mt!
ylEA FCwtGF+ NLhj qElrxpyGF Gsp olGl DHtGp DHtnvwA- LFFHxtyr FCwtGF zq
pDHlw FtBp+ JtGs Y zmFpEIlGtzyF tG nly zywA xlvp wzr= ’Y ( } % FCwtGF mpqzEp
EHyytyr zHG zq olGl- Tq fhTX CppwF zΓ l CEzCzEGtzy α zq GEltytyr CztyGF
lG plns FGlrp+ tG nly CpEqzEx lCCEzKtxlGpwA } wzr’Y (. wzr’% } α( Cppwtyr
FGpCF mpqzEp EHyytyr zHG zq olGl- QzE pKlxCwp+ tq Y ˆ %=] lyo α ˆ $,%$+
Gspy wzr= ’Y ( } % ˆ [ Jstwp } wzr’Y (. wzr’% } α( ≈ ?[- jlvtyr tyGz lnnzHyG
GslG GspEp xHFG mp ly tyGprpE yHxmpE zq zmFpEIlGtzyF lG plns FGlrp+ fhTX
ty qlnG nly Cppw zywA =– GtxpF- Ty lyA nlFp+ Gsp lmtwtGA zq fhTX Gz mp xzEp
ClGtpyG FszHwo spwC Gsp GzC!ozJy rEppoA lwrzEtGsx ÿo l mpGGpE FzwHGtzy-
–-“-0 iClx PKlxCwp ’NzyGtyHpo(

bp lCCwtpo fhTX Gz Gsp FClK olGl+ JtGs Gsp EpFCzyFp nzopo lF % qzE FClx
lyo $ qzE pxltw-
jsp ËFG GJz mzKpF qzHyo mA fhTX lEp FHxxlEtBpo mpwzJ9
–-? cLhi9 cHwGtIlEtlGp LolCGtIp hprEpFFtzy iCwtypF “=%
hHwp % Rwzmlw Xply MzK Xply MzK iHCCzEG

jEltytyr $-“–“% $-–[$fi $-%?%“
jpFG $-“–4] %-$$$$ $-%4“[


 ns, / $,$=–



 N f aP / =,““%



 AziE / $,fi$4

/333 ı $,$?$
hHwp %

 N fjej / fi–,4$



 poi ı $,$fi$



 Ep ı $,4“4

ns: ı $,$“$
hHwp = hpxlty Xply MzK Xply MzK iHCCzEG

jEltytyr $-=––] $-–4[$ $-%$?“
jpFG $-=][= $-–=[? $-%$[%
{
EpKzIp / $,$%$
hHwp =
rpzErp ı $,%%$
jsp mzK FHCCzEG tF Gsp CEzCzEGtzy zq zmFpEIlGtzyF qlwwtyr ty Gsp mzK-
jsp ËFG mzK tF CHEpwA FClx+ lyo nzyGltyF lmzHG %40 zq Gsp GpFG olGl-
jsp Fpnzyo mzK nzyGltyF %$-[0 zq Gsp GpFG zmFpEIlGtzyF+ –=-[0 zq Jstns
lEp FClx- jzrpGspE Gsp GJz mzKpF nzyGlty =[0 zq Gsp olGl lyo lEp lmzHG
–fi0 FClx- jsp ypKG qpJ mzKpF ’yzG FszJy( lEp DHtGp Fxlww+ nzyGltytyr zywA
lmzHG “0 zq Gsp olGl-
jsp CEpotnGzEF lEp wtFGpo ty zEopE zq txCzEGlynp- TyGpEpFGtyrwA Gsp GzC
FCwtGGtyr IlEtlmwpF ty Gsp NLhj GEpp ’QtrHEp –-4( oz yzG lCCplE ty fhTX&F
ËFG mzK-
–-? cLhi9 cHwGtIlEtlGp LolCGtIp hprEpFFtzy

iCwtypF
XLhi tF ly lolCGtIp CEznpoHEp qzE EprEpFFtzy+ lyo tF Jpww FHtGpo qzE strs!
otxpyFtzylw CEzmwpxF ’t-p-+ l wlErp yHxmpE zq tyCHGF(- TG nly mp ItpJpo lF l
rpypElwtBlGtzy zq FGpCJtFp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zE l xzot¨nlGtzy zq Gsp NLhj
xpGszo Gz txCEzIp Gsp wlGGpE&F CpEqzExlynp ty Gsp EprEpFFtzy FpGGtyr- bp
tyGEzoHnp XLhi qEzx Gsp ËFG CztyG zq ItpJ+ lyo wlGpE xlvp Gsp nzyypnGtzy
Gz NLhj-
XLhi HFpF pKClyFtzyF ty CtpnpJtFp wtyplE mlFtF qHynGtzyF zq Gsp qzEx
’K } G() lyo ’G } K() - jsp ˜)˙ xplyF CzFtGtIp ClEG+ Fz
{ {
K } GW tq K / G+ G } KW tq K ı G+
’K}G() ˆ lyo ’G}K() ˆ
$W zGspEJtFp+ $W zGspEJtFp,
“== –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

MlFtF gHynGtzy
’R | K() ’K | R()
0.0 0.2 0.4 R 0.6 0.8 1.0

K
QTRIFD 8W8W jsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF ’K } R() ’Fzwto zElyrp( lyo ’R } K() ’mEzvpy
mwHp( HFpo mA cLhi-
LF ly pKlxCwp+ Gsp qHynGtzyF ’K } $,4() lyo ’$,4 } K() lEp FszJy ty Qtr!
HEp –-–-
Plns qHynGtzy tF CtpnpJtFp wtyplE+ JtGs l vyzG lG Gsp IlwHp G- Ty Gsp
GpExtyzwzrA zq NslCGpE 4+ GspFp lEp wtyplE FCwtypF- bp nlww Gsp GJz qHynGtzyF
l Ep7pnGpo CltE ty Gsp otFnHFFtzy mpwzJ- jsp topl tF Gz qzEx Ep7pnGpo CltEF
qzE plns tyCHG cH JtGs vyzGF lG plns zmFpEIpo IlwHp KtH zq GslG tyCHG-
jspEpqzEp+ Gsp nzwwpnGtzy zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF tF
N ˆ ·’cH } G() W ’G } cH () • G ∈ ·K0u W K=u W , , , W Kd u | ’–-%](
H ˆ 0W =W , , , W C,
Tq lww zq Gsp tyCHG IlwHpF lEp otFGtynG+ GspEp lEp =Y C mlFtF qHynGtzyF lwGz!
rpGspE- YzGp GslG lwGszHrs plns mlFtF qHynGtzy opCpyoF zywA zy l Ftyrwp
cH + qzE pKlxCwp+ s’c( ˆ ’cH } G() + tG tF nzyFtopEpo lF l qHynGtzy zIpE Gsp
pyGtEp tyCHG FClnp ThC -
jsp xzopw!mHtwotyr FGElGprA tF wtvp l qzEJlEo FGpCJtFp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy+
mHG tyFGplo zq HFtyr Gsp zEtrtylw tyCHGF+ Jp lEp lwwzJpo Gz HFp qHynGtzyF
qEzx Gsp FpG N lyo GsptE CEzoHnGF- jsHF Gsp xzopw slF Gsp qzEx
X
∑
q ’c( ˆ β$ ) βx sx ’c(W ’–-%–(
xˆ0
JspEp plns sx ’c( tF l qHynGtzy ty N+ zE l CEzoHnG zq GJz zE xzEp FHns

qHynGtzyF-
RtIpy l nsztnp qzE Gsp sx + Gsp nzpffntpyGF βx lEp pFGtxlGpo mA xtytxtB!
tyr Gsp EpFtoHlw FHx!zq!FDHlEpF+ GslG tF+ mA FGlyolEo wtyplE EprEpFFtzy- jsp
Eplw lEG+ szJpIpE+ tF ty Gsp nzyFGEHnGtzy zq Gsp qHynGtzyF sx ’K(- bp FGlEG
JtGs zywA Gsp nzyFGlyG qHynGtzy s$ ’c( ˆ % ty zHE xzopw+ lyo lww qHynGtzyF
ty Gsp FpG N lEp nlyotolGp qHynGtzyF- jstF tF opCtnGpo ty QtrHEp –-%$-
LG plns FGlrp Jp nzyFtopE lF l ypJ mlFtF qHynGtzy CltE lww CEzoHnGF zq l
qHynGtzy sx ty Gsp xzopw FpG X JtGs zyp zq Gsp Ep7pnGpo CltEF ty N- bp
loo Gz Gsp xzopw X Gsp GpEx zq Gsp qzEx
β—X )0 sℓ ’c( ± ’cH } G() ) β—X )= sℓ ’c( ± ’G } cH () W sℓ ∈ XW
–-? cLhi9 cHwGtIlEtlGp LolCGtIp hprEpFFtzy iCwtypF “=“
y0
NzyFGlyG
y=
yN
y0
y=
y=
yN
y0
y=
y=
y0 yN
QTRIFD 8W0.W inspxlGtn zq Gsp cLhi qzEJlEo xzopw,mHtwotyr CEznpoHEp- Zy

Gsp wpqG lEp Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF nHEEpyGwA ty Gsp xzopw9 tytGtlwwA+ GstF tF Gsp nzyFGlyG
qHynGtzy s’c( ˆ %- Zy Gsp EtrsG lEp lww nlyotolGp mlFtF qHynGtzyF Gz mp nzyFtopEpo
ty mHtwotyr Gsp xzopw- jspFp lEp CltEF zq CtpnpJtFp wtyplE mlFtF qHynGtzyF lF ty
QtrHEp –-–+ JtGs vyzGF R lG lww HytDHp zmFpEIpo IlwHpF Ktu zq plns CEpotnGzE cu -
LG plns FGlrp Jp nzyFtopE lww CEzoHnGF zq l nlyotolGp CltE JtGs l mlFtF qHynGtzy
ty Gsp xzopw- jsp CEzoHnG GslG opnEplFpF Gsp EpFtoHlw pEEzE Gsp xzFG tF loopo tyGz
Gsp nHEEpyG xzopw- LmzIp Jp twwHFGElGp Gsp 6EFG GsEpp FGpCF zq Gsp CEznpoHEp+ JtGs
Gsp FpwpnGpo qHynGtzyF FszJy ty Epo-
“=? –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
sWc0 W c= (
c=
c0
QTRIFD 8W00W jsp qHynGtzy s’c0 W c= ( ˆ ’c0 } K40 () ± ’K6= } c= () + EpFHwGtyr

qEzx xHwGtCwtnlGtzy zq GJz CtpnpJtFp wtyplE cLhi mlFtF qHynGtzyF-
GslG CEzoHnpF Gsp wlErpFG opnEplFp ty GEltytyr pEEzE- SpEp β—X )0 lyo β—X )=
lEp nzpffntpyGF pFGtxlGpo mA wplFG FDHlEpF+ lwzyr JtGs lww Gsp zGspE X ) %
nzpffntpyGF ty Gsp xzopw- jspy Gsp Jtyytyr CEzoHnGF lEp loopo Gz Gsp
xzopw lyo Gsp CEznpFF tF nzyGtyHpo HyGtw Gsp xzopw FpG X nzyGltyF Fzxp
CEpFpG xlKtxHx yHxmpE zq GpExF-
QzE pKlxCwp+ lG Gsp ËFG FGlrp Jp nzyFtopE lootyr Gz Gsp xzopw l qHynGtzy
zq Gsp qzEx β0 ’cH } G() ) β= ’G } cH () : G ∈ ·KtH •+ Ftynp xHwGtCwtnlGtzy mA
Gsp nzyFGlyG qHynGtzy uHFG CEzoHnpF Gsp qHynGtzy tGFpwq- iHCCzFp Gsp mpFG
nsztnp tF β—0 ’c= } Kfi= () ) β—= ’Kfi= } c= () - jspy GstF CltE zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF
tF loopo Gz Gsp FpG X+ lyo lG Gsp ypKG FGlrp Jp nzyFtopE tynwHotyr l CltE
zq CEzoHnGF Gsp qzEx
sx ’c( ± ’cH } G() lyo sx ’c( ± ’G } cH () W G ∈ ·KtH •W
JspEp qzE sx Jp slIp Gsp nsztnpF
s$ ’c( ˆ %W
s0 ’c( ˆ ’c= } Kfi= () W zE
s= ’c( ˆ ’Kfi= } c= () ,
jsp GstEo nsztnp CEzoHnpF qHynGtzyF FHns lF ’c0 } K40 () ± ’Kfi= } c= () +

opCtnGpo ty QtrHEp –-%%-
LG Gsp pyo zq GstF CEznpFF Jp slIp l wlErp xzopw zq Gsp qzEx ’–-%–(- jstF
xzopw GACtnlwwA zIpE¨GF Gsp olGl+ lyo Fz l mlnvJlEo opwpGtzy CEznpoHEp
tF lCCwtpo- jsp GpEx JszFp EpxzIlw nlHFpF Gsp FxlwwpFG tynEplFp ty EpFto!
Hlw FDHlEpo pEEzE tF opwpGpo qEzx Gsp xzopw lG plns FGlrp+ CEzoHntyr ly
pFGtxlGpo mpFG xzopw q—λ zq plns FtBp ’yHxmpE zq GpExF( λ- Zyp nzHwo HFp
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp zCGtxlw IlwHp zq λ+ mHG qzE nzxCHGlGtzylw
–-? cLhi9 cHwGtIlEtlGp LolCGtIp hprEpFFtzy iCwtypF “=4
FlItyrF Gsp XLhi CEznpoHEp tyFGplo HFpF rpypElwtBpo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- jstF

nEtGpEtzy tF opÿpo lF
(Y
} q—λ ’Kt ((=
tˆ0 ’At
RNa’λ( ˆ , ’–-=$(
’% } X ’λ(.Y (=
jsp IlwHp X ’λ( tF Gsp pΓpnGtIp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF ty Gsp xzopw9 GstF
lnnzHyGF mzGs qzE Gsp yHxmpE zq GpExF ty Gsp xzopwF+ CwHF Gsp yHxmpE
zq ClElxpGpEF HFpo ty FpwpnGtyr Gsp zCGtxlw CzFtGtzyF zq Gsp vyzGF- izxp
xlGspxlGtnlw lyo FtxHwlGtzy EpFHwGF FHrrpFG GslG zyp FszHwo ClA l CEtnp
zq GsEpp ClElxpGpEF qzE FpwpnGtyr l vyzG ty l CtpnpJtFp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy-
jsHF tq GspEp lEp E wtyplEwA tyopCpyopyG mlFtF qHynGtzyF ty Gsp xzopw+ lyo
V vyzGF JpEp FpwpnGpo ty Gsp qzEJlEo CEznpFF+ Gsp qzExHwl tF X ’λ( ˆ E)nV+
JspEp n ˆ “- ’bspy Gsp xzopw tF EpFGEtnGpo Gz mp lootGtIp1opGltwF mpwzJ1
l CpylwGA zq n ˆ = tF HFpo(- kFtyr GstF+ Jp nszzFp Gsp xzopw lwzyr Gsp
mlnvJlEo FpDHpynp GslG xtytxtBpF RNa’λ(-
bsA GspFp CtpnpJtFp wtyplE mlFtF qHynGtzyF+ lyo JsA GstF ClEGtnHwlE xzopw
FGElGprA¯ L vpA CEzCpEGA zq Gsp qHynGtzyF zq QtrHEp –-– tF GsptE lmtwtGA Gz
zCpElGp wznlwwA: GspA lEp BpEz zIpE ClEG zq GsptE Elyrp- bspy GspA lEp xHw!
GtCwtpo GzrpGspE+ lF ty QtrHEp –-%%+ Gsp EpFHwG tF yzyBpEz zywA zIpE Gsp Fxlww
ClEG zq Gsp qplGHEp FClnp JspEp mzGs nzxCzypyG qHynGtzyF lEp yzyBpEz- LF
l EpFHwG+ Gsp EprEpFFtzy FHEqlnp tF mHtwG HC ClEFtxzytzHFwA+ HFtyr yzyBpEz
nzxCzypyGF wznlwwA1zywA JspEp GspA lEp yppopo- jstF tF txCzEGlyG+ Ftynp
zyp FszHwo ˜FCpyo˙ ClElxpGpEF nlEpqHwwA ty strs otxpyFtzyF+ lF GspA nly
EHy zHG DHtnvwA- jsp HFp zq zGspE mlFtF qHynGtzyF FHns lF CzwAyzxtlwF+ JzHwo
CEzoHnp l yzyBpEz CEzoHnG pIpEAJspEp+ lyo JzHwo yzG JzEv lF Jpww-
jsp Fpnzyo txCzEGlyG loIlyGlrp zq Gsp CtpnpJtFp wtyplE mlFtF qHynGtzy
nzynpEyF nzxCHGlGtzy- NzyFtopE Gsp CEzoHnG zq l qHynGtzy ty X JtGs plns
zq Gsp Y Ep7pnGpo CltEF qzE ly tyCHG cH - jstF lCCplEF Gz EpDHtEp Gsp ¨GGtyr
zq Y Ftyrwp!tyCHG wtyplE EprEpFFtzy xzopwF+ plns zq Jstns HFpF Z’Y ( zCpE!
lGtzyF+ xlvtyr l GzGlw zq Z’Y = ( zCpElGtzyF- SzJpIpE+ Jp nly pKCwztG Gsp
FtxCwp qzEx zq Gsp CtpnpJtFp wtyplE qHynGtzy- bp ËFG ¨G Gsp Ep7pnGpo CltE
JtGs EtrsGxzFG vyzG- LF Gsp vyzG tF xzIpo FHnnpFFtIpwA zyp CzFtGtzy lG l
Gtxp Gz Gsp wpqG+ Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF otΓpE mA BpEz zIpE Gsp wpqG ClEG zq Gsp
ozxlty+ lyo mA l nzyFGlyG zIpE Gsp EtrsG ClEG- Spynp lqGpE plns FHns xzIp
Jp nly HColGp Gsp ¨G ty Z’%( zCpElGtzyF- jstF lwwzJF HF Gz GEA pIpEA vyzG
ty zywA Z’Y ( zCpElGtzyF-
jsp qzEJlEo xzopwtyr FGElGprA ty XLhi tF stpElEnstnlw+ ty Gsp FpyFp GslG
xHwGtJlA CEzoHnGF lEp mHtwG HC qEzx CEzoHnGF tyIzwItyr GpExF lwEploA ty
Gsp xzopw- QzE pKlxCwp+ l qzHE!JlA CEzoHnG nly zywA mp loopo Gz Gsp xzopw
tq zyp zq tGF GsEpp!JlA nzxCzypyGF tF lwEploA ty Gsp xzopw- jsp CstwzFzCsA
spEp tF GslG l strs!zEopE tyGpElnGtzy Jtww wtvpwA zywA pKtFG tq Fzxp zq tGF wzJpE!
zEopE ˜qzzGCEtyGF˙ pKtFG lF Jpww- jstF yppo yzG mp GEHp+ mHG tF l EplFzylmwp
JzEvtyr lFFHxCGtzy lyo lIztoF Gsp FplEns zIpE ly pKCzypyGtlwwA rEzJtyr
FClnp zq lwGpEylGtIpF-
“=[ –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
0.4
•
Test Misclassification Error
0.3
0.2
•
••
0.1
••••• GCV choice

•••• • •
• • ••••
•••••••••••••••••••• •• •• ••••••• •
0.055 • • • • •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
0 20 40 60 80 100
Rank of Model
QTRIFD 8W01W iClx olGl9 GpFG pEEzE xtFnwlFFt6nlGtzy ElGp qzE Gsp cLhi CEz,
npoHEp+ lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp Elyv ’yHxmpE zq tyopCpyopyG mlFtF qHynGtzyF( ty Gsp
xzopw-
jspEp tF zyp EpFGEtnGtzy CHG zy Gsp qzExlGtzy zq xzopw GpExF9 plns tyCHG
nly lCCplE lG xzFG zynp ty l CEzoHnG- jstF CEpIpyGF Gsp qzExlGtzy zq
strspE!zEopE CzJpEF zq ly tyCHG+ Jstns tynEplFp zE opnEplFp Gzz FslECwA
yplE Gsp mzHyolEtpF zq Gsp qplGHEp FClnp- iHns CzJpEF nly mp lCCEzKtxlGpo
ty l xzEp FGlmwp JlA JtGs CtpnpJtFp wtyplE qHynGtzyF-
L HFpqHw zCGtzy ty Gsp XLhi CEznpoHEp tF Gz FpG ly HCCpE wtxtG zy
Gsp zEopE zq tyGpElnGtzy- QzE pKlxCwp+ zyp nly FpG l wtxtG zq GJz+ lwwzJtyr
CltEJtFp CEzoHnGF zq CtpnpJtFp wtyplE qHynGtzyF+ mHG yzG GsEpp! zE strspE!
JlA CEzoHnGF- jstF nly lto ty Gsp tyGpECEpGlGtzy zq Gsp ÿlw xzopw- Ly
HCCpE wtxtG zq zyp EpFHwGF ty ly lootGtIp xzopw-
–-?-0 iClx PKlxCwp ’NzyGtyHpo(

bp lCCwtpo XLhi Gz Gsp ˜FClx˙ olGl lylwABpo plEwtpE ty GstF nslCGpE- jz
pyslynp tyGpECEpGlmtwtGA+ Jp EpFGEtnGpo XLhi Gz Fpnzyo!oprEpp tyGpElnGtzyF-
LwGszHrs Gsp GlErpG tF l GJz!nwlFF IlEtlmwp+ Jp HFpo Gsp FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF
qHynGtzy yzypGspwpFF ’Fpp ipnGtzy –-?-“(- QtrHEp –-%= FszJF Gsp GpFG pEEzE
xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy ElGp lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp Elyv ’yHxmpE zq tyopCpyopyG ml!
FtF qHynGtzyF( ty Gsp xzopw- jsp pEEzE ElGp wpIpwF zΓ lG lmzHG 4,40+ Jstns tF
FwtrsGwA strspE Gsly GslG zq Gsp rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopw ’4,“0( otFnHFFpo
plEwtpE- RNa nszFp l xzopw FtBp zq [$+ Jstns tF EzHrswA Gsp FxlwwpFG xzopw
rtItyr zCGtxlw CpEqzExlynp- jsp wplotyr tyGpElnGtzyF qzHyo mA XLhi ty!
IzwIpo tyCHGF ’ns/+ EpxzIp(+ ’ns/+ DEpp( lyo ’sC+ NLfjej(- SzJpIpE+ GspFp
tyGpElnGtzyF rtIp yz txCEzIpxpyG ty CpEqzExlynp zIpE Gsp rpypElwtBpo lo!
otGtIp xzopw-
–-? cLhi9 cHwGtIlEtlGp LolCGtIp hprEpFFtzy iCwtypF “=fi
–-?-1 PKlxCwp ’itxHwlGpo OlGl(

SpEp Jp pKlxtyp Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq XLhi ty GsEpp nzyGElFGtyr FnpylEtzF-
jspEp lEp Y ˆ %$$ zmFpEIlGtzyF+ lyo Gsp CEpotnGzEF c0 W c= W , , , W cC lyo
pEEzEF ε slIp tyopCpyopyG FGlyolEo yzExlw otFGEtmHGtzyF-
inpylEtz %9 jsp olGl rpypElGtzy xzopw tF
d ˆ ’c0 } %() ) ’c0 } %() ± ’c= } ,]() ) $,%= ± ε, ’–-=%(
jsp yztFp FGlyolEo opItlGtzy $-%= JlF nszFpy Fz GslG Gsp Ftrylw!Gz!
yztFp ElGtz JlF lmzHG 4- bp nlww GstF Gsp GpyFzE!CEzoHnG FnpylEtz: Gsp
CEzoHnG GpEx rtIpF l FHEqlnp GslG wzzvF wtvp GslG zq QtrHEp –-%%-
inpylEtz =9 jstF tF Gsp Flxp lF FnpylEtz %+ mHG JtGs C ˆ =$ GzGlw CEpotnGzEF:

GslG tF+ GspEp lEp %] tyCHGF GslG lEp tyopCpyopyG zq Gsp EpFCzyFp-
inpylEtz “9 jstF slF Gsp FGEHnGHEp zq l ypHElw ypGJzEv9
ℓ0 ˆ c0 ) c= ) c˜ ) c3 ) c4 W
ℓ= ˆ c[ } cfi ) c] } c8 ) c0$ W
’–-==(
σ’G( ˆ %.’% ) p}G (W
d ˆ σ’ℓ0 ( ) σ’ℓ= ( ) $,%= ± ε,
inpylEtzF % lyo = lEp toplwwA FHtGpo qzE XLhi+ Jstwp FnpylEtz “ nzyGltyF
strs!zEopE tyGpElnGtzyF lyo xlA mp otffnHwG qzE XLhi Gz lCCEzKtxlGp- bp
Ely Ïp FtxHwlGtzyF qEzx plns xzopw+ lyo EpnzEopo Gsp EpFHwGF-
Ty FnpylEtz %+ XLhi GACtnlwwA HynzIpEpo Gsp nzEEpnG xzopw lwxzFG CpE!
qpnGwA- Ty FnpylEtz =+ tG qzHyo Gsp nzEEpnG FGEHnGHEp mHG lwFz qzHyo l qpJ
pKGElypzHF GpExF tyIzwItyr zGspE CEpotnGzEF-
pG <’K( mp Gsp GEHp xply zq d + lyo wpG
XiP$ A } <’K((= W
ˆ lIpK∈upFG ’3
’–-=“(
XiP ˆ lIpK∈upFG ’q—’K( } <’K((= ,
jspFp EpCEpFpyG Gsp xply!FDHlEp pEEzE zq Gsp nzyFGlyG xzopw lyo Gsp ¨GGpo
XLhi xzopw+ pFGtxlGpo mA lIpElrtyr lG Gsp %$$$ GpFG IlwHpF zq K- jlmwp –-?
FszJF Gsp CEzCzEGtzylw opnEplFp ty xzopw pEEzE zE h= qzE plns FnpylEtz9
XiP$ } XiP
h= ˆ , ’–-=?(
XiP$
jsp IlwHpF FszJy lEp xplyF lyo FGlyolEo pEEzE zIpE Gsp Ïp FtxHwlGtzyF-
jsp CpEqzExlynp zq XLhi tF oprElopo zywA FwtrsGwA mA Gsp tynwHFtzy zq Gsp
HFpwpFF tyCHGF ty FnpylEtz =: tG CpEqzExF FHmFGlyGtlwwA JzEFp ty FnpylEtz “-
“=] –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
uLM D 8W3W fEzCzEGtzylw opnEplFp ty xzopw pEEzE ’h= ( Jspy cLhi tF lCCwtpo
Gz GsEpp ot;pEpyG FnpylEtzF-
inpylEtz Xply ’i-P-(

%9 jpyFzE CEzoHnG C ˆ = $-–fi ’$-$%(
=9 jpyFzE CEzoHnG C ˆ =$ $-–[ ’$-$%(
“9 YpHElw ypGJzEv $-fi– ’$-$%(
–-?-“ ZGspE TFFHpF

XLhi qzE NwlFFt¨nlGtzy
jsp XLhi xpGszo lyo lwrzEtGsx nly mp pKGpyopo Gz slyowp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
CEzmwpxF- ipIpElw FGElGprtpF slIp mppy FHrrpFGpo-
QzE GJz nwlFFpF+ zyp nly nzop Gsp zHGCHG lF $#% lyo GEplG Gsp CEzmwpx lF
l EprEpFFtzy: Jp oto GstF qzE Gsp FClK pKlxCwp- QzE xzEp Gsly GJz nwlFFpF+
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oztyr xHwGtCwp txCHGlGtzyF lyo spynp nEplGtyr xlyA otΓpEpyG GEltytyr FpGF-
jsp CEpotnGtIp xzopw qzE A nly mp ¨G Gz plns GEltytyr FpG+ lyo Gsp IlEtlGtzy
lnEzFF GEltytyr FpGF nly mp lFFpFFpo- Tq NLhj JlF HFpo qzE Gsp txCHGlGtzy
pyrtyp+ Gsp xHwGtCwp txCHGlGtzyF nzHwo mp ozyp mA FlxCwtyr qEzx Gsp IlwHpF
ty Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr GpExtylw yzopF-
““? –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
–-fi NzxCHGlGtzylw NzyFtopElGtzyF

btGs Y zmFpEIlGtzyF lyo C CEpotnGzEF+ lootGtIp xzopw ¨GGtyr EpDHtEpF Fzxp
yHxmpE xC zq lCCwtnlGtzyF zq l zyp!otxpyFtzylw FxzzGspE zE EprEpFFtzy
xpGszo- jsp EpDHtEpo yHxmpE zq nAnwpF x zq Gsp mlnv¨GGtyr lwrzEtGsx tF
HFHlwwA wpFF Gsly =$ lyo zqGpy wpFF Gsly %$+ lyo opCpyoF zy Gsp lxzHyG
zq nzEEpwlGtzy ty Gsp tyCHGF- btGs nHmtn FxzzGstyr FCwtypF+ qzE pKlxCwp+
Y wzr Y zCpElGtzyF lEp yppopo qzE ly tytGtlw FzEG lyo Y zCpElGtzyF qzE Gsp
FCwtyp ¨G- Spynp Gsp GzGlw zCpElGtzyF qzE ly lootGtIp xzopw ¨G tF CY wzr Y )
xCY -
jEppF EpDHtEp CY wzr Y zCpElGtzyF qzE ly tytGtlw FzEG qzE plns CEpotnGzE+
lyo GACtnlwwA lyzGspE CY wzr Y zCpElGtzyF qzE Gsp FCwtG nzxCHGlGtzyF- Tq Gsp
FCwtGF znnHEEpo yplE Gsp porpF zq Gsp CEpotnGzE ElyrpF+ GstF yHxmpE nzHwo
tynEplFp Gz Y = C-
XLhi EpDHtEpF Y x= ) CxY zCpElGtzyF Gz loo l mlFtF qHynGtzy Gz l
xzopw JtGs x GpExF lwEploA CEpFpyG+ qEzx l Czzw zq C CEpotnGzEF- Spynp Gz
mHtwo ly X !GpEx xzopw EpDHtEpF Y X ˜ ) CX = Y nzxCHGlGtzyF+ Jstns nly
mp DHtGp CEzstmtGtIp tq X tF l EplFzylmwp qElnGtzy zq Y -
Plns zq Gsp nzxCzypyGF zq ly SXP lEp GACtnlwwA typKCpyFtIp Gz ¨G lG
plns X!FGpC9 Y C= qzE Gsp EprEpFFtzyF+ lyo Y C= V = qzE l V!nwlFF wzrtFGtn
EprEpFFtzy- jsp PX lwrzEtGsx+ szJpIpE+ nly Glvp l wzyr Gtxp Gz nzyIpErp+
lyo Fz FtBlmwp SXP xzopwF lEp nzyFtopEpo nzFGwA Gz ¨G-
MtmwtzrElCstn dzGpF
jsp xzFG nzxCEpspyFtIp FzHEnp qzE rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopwF tF Gsp GpKG
zq GslG ylxp mA SlFGtp lyo jtmFstElyt ’%––$(- OtΓpEpyG lCCwtnlGtzyF zq
GstF JzEv ty xpotnlw CEzmwpxF lEp otFnHFFpo ty SlFGtp pG lw- ’%–]–( lyo
SlFGtp lyo SpExly ’%––$(+ lyo Gsp FzqGJlEp txCwpxpyGlGtzy ty iCwHF tF
opFnEtmpo ty NslxmpEF lyo SlFGtp ’%––%(- REppy lyo itwIpExly ’%––?(
otFnHFF CpylwtBlGtzy lyo FCwtyp xzopwF ty l IlEtpGA zq FpGGtyrF- PqEzy lyo
jtmFstElyt ’%––%( rtIp ly pKCzFtGtzy zq xzopEy opIpwzCxpyGF ty FGlGtFGtnF
’tynwHotyr rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopwF(+ qzE l yzyxlGspxlGtnlw lHotpynp-
NwlFFt¨nlGtzy lyo EprEpFFtzy GEppF olGp mlnv lG wplFG lF qlE lF XzErly lyo
izyDHtFG ’%–[“(- bp slIp qzwwzJpo Gsp xzopEy lCCEzlnspF zq MEptxly pG
lw- ’%–]?( lyo gHtywly ’%––“(- jsp fhTX xpGszo tF oHp Gz QEtpoxly
lyo QtFspE ’%–––(+ Jstwp XLhi tF tyGEzoHnpo ty QEtpoxly ’%––%(+ JtGs ly
lootGtIp CEpnHEFzE ty QEtpoxly lyo itwIpExly ’%–]–(- StpElEnstnlw xtKGHEpF
zq pKCpEGF JpEp CEzCzFpo ty UzEoly lyo UlnzmF ’%––?(: Fpp lwFz UlnzmF pG
lw- ’%––%(-
PKpEntFpF ““4
PKpEntFpF
PK- –-% iszJ GslG l FxzzGstyr FCwtyp ¨G zq At Gz Kt CEpFpEIpF Gsp wtyplE
ClEG zq Gsp ¨G- Ty zGspE JzEoF+ tq At ˆ A—t ) Et + JspEp A—t EpCEpFpyGF Gsp
wtyplE EprEpFFtzy ¨GF+ lyo i tF Gsp FxzzGstyr xlGEtK+ Gspy iA ˆ A — ) iE-
iszJ GslG Gsp Flxp tF GEHp qzE wznlw wtyplE EprEpFFtzy ’ipnGtzy [-%-%(- Spynp
lErHp GslG Gsp louHFGxpyG FGpC ty Gsp Fpnzyo wtyp zq ’=( ty LwrzEtGsx –-%
tF HyypnpFFlEA-
PK- –-= pG L mp l vyzJy v × v xlGEtK+ m mp l vyzJy v!IpnGzE+ lyo B
mp ly HyvyzJy v!IpnGzE- L RlHFF8iptopw lwrzEtGsx qzE FzwItyr Gsp wtyplE
FAFGpx zq pDHlGtzyF LB ˆ m JzEvF mA FHnnpFFtIpwA FzwItyr qzE pwpxpyG BH ty
Gsp uGs pDHlGtzy+ ¨Ktyr lww zGspE BH &F lG GsptE nHEEpyG rHpFFpF- jstF CEznpFF
tF EpCplGpo qzE u ˆ %W =W , , , W vW %W =W , , , W vW , , , W HyGtw nzyIpErpynp ’RzwHm lyo
aly zly+ %–]“(-
’l( NzyFtopE ly lootGtIp xzopw JtGs Y zmFpEIlGtzyF lyo C GpExF+ JtGs
Gsp uGs GpEx Gz mp ¨G mA l wtyplE FxzzGspE iH - NzyFtopE Gsp qzwwzJtyr
FAFGpx zq pDHlGtzyF9
  
T i0 i0 ± ± ± i0 D0 i0 A
i= T i= ± ± ± i=  D=  i= A
    
 -- -- -- - - --   --  ˆ  --  , ’–-““(
 - - - - -   -   - 
iC iC iC ±±± T DC iC A
SpEp plns DH tF ly Y !IpnGzE zq pIlwHlGtzyF zq Gsp uGs qHynGtzy lG
Gsp olGl CztyGF+ lyo A tF ly Y !IpnGzE zq Gsp EpFCzyFp IlwHpF- iszJ
GslG mlnv¨GGtyr tF l mwznvJtFp RlHFF8iptopw lwrzEtGsx qzE FzwItyr GstF
FAFGpx zq pDHlGtzyF-
’m( pG i0 lyo i= mp FAxxpGEtn FxzzGstyr zCpElGzEF ’xlGEtnpF( JtGs
ptrpyIlwHpF ty ”$W %(- NzyFtopE l mlnv¨GGtyr lwrzEtGsx JtGs EpFCzyFp
IpnGzE A lyo FxzzGspEF i0 W i= - iszJ GslG JtGs lyA FGlEGtyr IlwHpF+
Gsp lwrzEtGsx nzyIpErpF lyo rtIp l qzExHwl qzE Gsp ÿlw tGpElGpF-
PK- –-“ Mlnv¨GGtyr pDHlGtzyF- NzyFtopE l mlnv¨GGtyr CEznpoHEp JtGs zEGszr!
zylw CEzupnGtzyF+ lyo wpG O mp Gsp zIpElww EprEpFFtzy xlGEtK JszFp nzwHxyF
FCly a ˆ nBw ’i0 ( ⊕ nBw ’i= ( ⊕ ± ± ± ⊕ nBw ’iC (+ JspEp nBw ’i( opyzGpF Gsp
nzwHxy FClnp zq l xlGEtK i- iszJ GslG Gsp pFGtxlGtyr pDHlGtzyF
  
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    
 -- -- -- - - --   --  ˆ  -- 
 - - - - -   -   - 
iC iC iC ±±± T DC iC A
lEp pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp wplFG FDHlEpF yzExlw pDHlGtzyF Oj Oβ ˆ Oj A JspEp
β tF Gsp IpnGzE zq nzpffntpyGF-
““[ –- LootGtIp czopwF+ jEppF+ lyo hpwlGpo cpGszoF
PK- –-? iHCCzFp Gsp Flxp FxzzGspE i tF HFpo Gz pFGtxlGp mzGs GpExF ty l
GJz!GpEx lootGtIp xzopw ’t-p-+ mzGs IlEtlmwpF lEp topyGtnlw(- LFFHxp GslG i
tF FAxxpGEtn JtGs ptrpyIlwHpF ty ”$W %(- iszJ GslG Gsp mlnv¨GGtyr EpFtoHlw
nzyIpErpF Gz ’T ) i(}0 ’T } i(A+ lyo GslG Gsp EpFtoHlw FHx zq FDHlEpF nzy!
IpErpF HCJlEo- Nly Gsp EpFtoHlw FHx zq FDHlEpF nzyIpErp HCJlEo ty wpFF
FGEHnGHEpo FtGHlGtzyF¯ SzJ ozpF GstF ¨G nzxClEp Gz Gsp ¨G JtGs l Ftyrwp
GpEx ¨G mA i¯ ”StyG9 kFp Gsp ptrpy!opnzxCzFtGtzy zq i Gz spwC JtGs GstF
nzxClEtFzy-fl
PK- –-4 OprEppF zq qEppozx zq l GEpp- RtIpy olGl At JtGs xply q ’Kt ( lyo
IlEtlynp σ = + lyo l( ¨GGtyr zCpElGtzy A → A — + wpG&F opÿp Gsp oprEppF zq
qEppozx zq l ¨G mA t nzI’At W A—t (.σ = -
NzyFtopE l ¨G A — pFGtxlGpo mA l EprEpFFtzy GEpp+ ¨G Gz l FpG zq CEpotnGzEF
c0 W c= W , , , W cC -
’l( Ty GpExF zq Gsp yHxmpE zq GpExtylw yzopF x+ rtIp l EzHrs qzExHwl qzE
Gsp oprEppF zq qEppozx zq Gsp ¨G-
’m( RpypElGp %$$ zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGs CEpotnGzEF c0 W c= W , , , W c0$ lF tyop!

CpyopyG FGlyolEo RlHFFtly IlEtlGpF lyo ¨K GspFp IlwHpF-
’n( RpypElGp EpFCzyFp IlwHpF lwFz lF FGlyolEo RlHFFtly ’σ = ˆ %(+ tyopCpy!

opyG zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF- QtG EprEpFFtzy GEppF Gz Gsp olGl zq ¨Kpo FtBp %+4
lyo %$ GpExtylw yzopF lyo spynp pFGtxlGp Gsp oprEppF zq qEppozx zq
plns ¨G- ”Oz Gpy FtxHwlGtzyF zq Gsp EpFCzyFp lyo lIpElrp Gsp EpFHwGF+
Gz rpG l rzzo pFGtxlGp zq oprEppF zq qEppozx-fl
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otFnHFF-
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qzE Fzxp xlGEtK i- jspy Gsp oprEppF zq qEppozx JzHwo mp GE’i(-
iHrrpFG l JlA Gz nzxCHGp ly lCCEzKtxlGp i xlGEtK qzE l EprEpFFtzy
GEpp+ nzxCHGp tG lyo nzxClEp Gsp EpFHwGtyr oprEppF zq qEppozx Gz
GszFp ty ’l( lyo ’n(-
PK- –-[ NzyFtopE Gsp zBzyp olGl zq QtrHEp [-–-
’l( QtG ly lootGtIp xzopw Gz Gsp nHmp EzzG zq zBzyp nzynpyGElGtzy- lF l

qHynGtzy zq GpxCpElGHEp+ Jtyo FCppo+ lyo ElotlGtzy- NzxClEp AzHE
EpFHwGF Gz GszFp zmGltypo Itl Gsp GEpwwtF otFCwlA ty QtrHEp [-–-
’m( QtG GEppF+ XLhi+ lyo fhTX Gz Gsp Flxp olGl+ lyo nzxClEp Gsp EpFHwGF
Gz GszFp qzHyo ty ’l( lyo ty QtrHEp [-–-
jstF tF Clrp ““fi
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0.-0 MzzFGtyr cpGszoF

MzzFGtyr tF zyp zq Gsp xzFG CzJpEqHw wplEytyr toplF tyGEzoHnpo ty Gsp wlFG
GJpyGA AplEF- TG JlF zEtrtylwwA opFtrypo qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpxF+ mHG lF
Jtww mp Fppy ty GstF nslCGpE+ tG nly CEz¨GlmwA mp pKGpyopo Gz EprEpFFtzy
lF Jpww- jsp xzGtIlGtzy qzE mzzFGtyr JlF l CEznpoHEp GslG nzxmtypF Gsp
zHGCHGF zq xlyA ˜Jplv˙ nwlFFt¨pEF Gz CEzoHnp l CzJpEqHw ñzxxtGGpp-˙
QEzx GstF CpEFCpnGtIp mzzFGtyr mplEF l EpFpxmwlynp Gz mlrrtyr lyo zGspE
nzxxtGGpp!mlFpo lCCEzlnspF ’ipnGtzy ]-](- SzJpIpE Jp Fslww Fpp GslG Gsp
nzyypnGtzy tF lG mpFG FHCpE¨ntlw lyo GslG mzzFGtyr tF qHyolxpyGlwwA otΓpE!
pyG-
bp mprty mA opFnEtmtyr Gsp xzFG CzCHwlE mzzFGtyr lwrzEtGsx oHp Gz
QEpHyo lyo inslCtEp ’%––fi( nlwwpo ˜LolMzzFG-X%-˙ NzyFtopE l GJz!nwlFF
CEzmwpx+ JtGs Gsp zHGCHG IlEtlmwp nzopo lF d ∈ ·}%W %•- RtIpy l IpnGzE zq
CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwpF c+ l nwlFFt¨pE R’c( CEzoHnpF l CEpotnGtzy Glvtyr zyp
zq Gsp GJz IlwHpF ·}%W %•- jsp pEEzE ElGp zy Gsp GEltytyr FlxCwp tF
Y
% ∑
pEE ˆ T’At 0ˆ R’Kt ((W
Y tˆ0
lyo Gsp pKCpnGpo pEEzE ElGp zy qHGHEp CEpotnGtzyF tF Pcd T’d 0ˆ R’c((-
L Jplv nwlFFt¨pE tF zyp JszFp pEEzE ElGp tF zywA FwtrsGwA mpGGpE Gsly
Elyozx rHpFFtyr- jsp CHECzFp zq mzzFGtyr tF Gz FpDHpyGtlwwA lCCwA Gsp
Jplv nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lwrzEtGsx Gz EpCplGpowA xzot¨po IpEFtzyF zq Gsp olGl+
GspEpmA CEzoHntyr l FpDHpynp zq Jplv nwlFFt¨pEF Rx ’K(W x ˆ %W =W , , , W X -
““] %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
rsAlv dvlFFsesCf
+( ,
X
R’K( ˆ Ftry xˆ0 αx Rx ’K(
Weighted Sample RX ’K(
Weighted Sample R˜ ’K(
Weighted Sample R= ’K(
Training Sample R0 ’K(
QTRIFD 0.W0W inspxlGtn zq LolMzzFG- NwlFFt6pEF lEp GEltypo zy JptrsGpo IpE,

FtzyF zq Gsp olGlFpG+ lyo Gspy nzxmtypo Gz CEzoHnp l 6ylw CEpotnGtzy-
jsp CEpotnGtzyF qEzx lww zq Gspx lEp Gspy nzxmtypo GsEzHrs l JptrsGpo
xluzEtGA IzGp Gz CEzoHnp Gsp ÿlw CEpotnGtzy9
( X 1
∑
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xˆ0
SpEp α0 W α= W , , , W αX lEp nzxCHGpo mA Gsp mzzFGtyr lwrzEtGsx+ lyo JptrsG

Gsp nzyGEtmHGtzy zq plns EpFCpnGtIp Rx ’K(- jsptE pΓpnG tF Gz rtIp strspE
ty7Hpynp Gz Gsp xzEp lnnHElGp nwlFFt¨pEF ty Gsp FpDHpynp- QtrHEp %$-% FszJF
l FnspxlGtn zq Gsp LolMzzFG CEznpoHEp-
jsp olGl xzot¨nlGtzyF lG plns mzzFGtyr FGpC nzyFtFG zq lCCwAtyr JptrsGF
J0 W J= W , , , W JY Gz plns zq Gsp GEltytyr zmFpEIlGtzyF ’Kt W At (W t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y -
TytGtlwwA lww zq Gsp JptrsGF lEp FpG Gz Jt ˆ %.Y + Fz GslG Gsp ËFG FGpC FtxCwA
GEltyF Gsp nwlFFt¨pE zy Gsp olGl ty Gsp HFHlw xlyypE- QzE plns FHnnpFFtIp
tGpElGtzy x ˆ =W “W , , , W X Gsp zmFpEIlGtzy JptrsGF lEp tyotItoHlwwA xzot!
¨po lyo Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lwrzEtGsx tF EplCCwtpo Gz Gsp JptrsGpo zmFpEIl!
GtzyF- LG FGpC x+ GszFp zmFpEIlGtzyF GslG JpEp xtFnwlFFt¨po mA Gsp nwlFFt¨pE
Rx}0 ’K( tyoHnpo lG Gsp CEpItzHF FGpC slIp GsptE JptrsGF tynEplFpo+ JspEplF
Gsp JptrsGF lEp opnEplFpo qzE GszFp GslG JpEp nwlFFt¨po nzEEpnGwA- jsHF lF
tGpElGtzyF CEznppo+ zmFpEIlGtzyF GslG lEp otffnHwG Gz nwlFFtqA nzEEpnGwA Ep!
nptIp pIpE!tynEplFtyr ty7Hpynp- Plns FHnnpFFtIp nwlFFt¨pE tF GspEpmA qzEnpo
%/-% MzzFGtyr cpGszoF ““–
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%- TytGtlwtBp Gsp zmFpEIlGtzy JptrsGF Jt ˆ %.YW t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y -
=- QzE x ˆ % Gz X 9
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’m( NzxCHGp
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tˆ0 Jt T’At 0ˆ Rx ’Kt ((
pEEx ˆ (Y ,
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’o( ipG Jt ← Jt ± pKC”αx ± T’At 0ˆ Rx ’Kt ((flW t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y -
+( ,
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xˆ0 x x R ’K( -
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zypF ty Gsp FpDHpynp-
LwrzEtGsx %$-% FszJF Gsp opGltwF zq Gsp LolMzzFG-X% lwrzEtGsx- jsp
nHEEpyG nwlFFt¨pE Rx ’K( tF tyoHnpo zy Gsp JptrsGpo zmFpEIlGtzyF lG wtyp =l-
jsp EpFHwGtyr JptrsGpo pEEzE ElGp tF nzxCHGpo lG wtyp =m- typ =n nlwnHwlGpF
Gsp JptrsG αx rtIpy Gz Rx ’K( ty CEzoHntyr Gsp ÿlw nwlFFt¨pE R’K( ’wtyp
“(- jsp tyotItoHlw JptrsGF zq plns zq Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF lEp HColGpo qzE Gsp
ypKG tGpElGtzy lG wtyp =o- ZmFpEIlGtzyF xtFnwlFFt¨po mA Rx ’K( slIp GsptE
JptrsGF Fnlwpo mA l qlnGzE pKC’αx (+ tynEplFtyr GsptE EpwlGtIp ty7Hpynp qzE
tyoHntyr Gsp ypKG nwlFFt¨pE Rx)0 ’K( ty Gsp FpDHpynp-
jsp LolMzzFG-X% lwrzEtGsx tF vyzJy lF ÕtFnEpGp LolMzzFG˙ ty QEtpo!
xly pG lw- ’=$$$(+ mpnlHFp Gsp mlFp nwlFFt¨pE Rx ’K( EpGHEyF l otFnEpGp nwlFF
wlmpw- Tq Gsp mlFp nwlFFt¨pE tyFGplo EpGHEyF l Eplw!IlwHpo CEpotnGtzy ’p-r-+
l CEzmlmtwtGA xlCCpo Gz Gsp tyGpEIlw ”}%W %fl(+ LolMzzFG nly mp xzot¨po
lCCEzCEtlGpwA ’Fpp ˜hplw LolMzzFG˙ ty QEtpoxly pG lw- ’=$$$((-
jsp CzJpE zq LolMzzFG Gz oElxlGtnlwwA tynEplFp Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq pIpy
l IpEA Jplv nwlFFt¨pE tF twwHFGElGpo ty QtrHEp %$-=- jsp qplGHEpF c0 W , , , W c0$
lEp FGlyolEo tyopCpyopyG RlHFFtly+ lyo Gsp opGpExtytFGtn GlErpG d tF op!
ÿpo mA { (0$
% tq Hˆ0 cH= / χ=0$ ’$,4(W
d ˆ ’%$-=(
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%$ oprEppF zq qEppozx ’FHx zq FDHlEpF zq %$ FGlyolEo RlHFFtlyF(- jspEp lEp
=$$$ GEltytyr nlFpF+ JtGs lCCEzKtxlGpwA %$$$ nlFpF ty plns nwlFF+ lyo %$+$$$
GpFG zmFpEIlGtzyF- SpEp Gsp Jplv nwlFFt¨pE tF uHFG l ˜FGHxC˙9 l GJz GpExtylw!
yzop nwlFFt¨nlGtzy GEpp- LCCwAtyr GstF nwlFFt¨pE lwzyp Gz Gsp GEltytyr olGl
FpG AtpwoF l IpEA CzzE GpFG FpG pEEzE ElGp zq ?4-]0+ nzxClEpo Gz 4$0 qzE
“?/ %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
0.5
Single Stump
0.4
0.3
Test Error
244 Node Tree

0.2
0.1
0.0
0 100 200 300 400
Boosting Iterations
QTRIFD 0.W1W itxHwlGpo olGl ’%/-=(9 GpFG pEEzE ElGp qzE mzzFGtyr JtGs FGHxCF+
lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp yHxmpE zq tGpElGtzyF- LwFz FszJy lEp Gsp GpFG pEEzE ElGp qzE
l Ftyrwp FGHxC+ lyo l =??,yzop nwlFFt6nlGtzy GEpp-
Elyozx rHpFFtyr- SzJpIpE+ lF mzzFGtyr tGpElGtzyF CEznppo Gsp pEEzE ElGp

FGplotwA opnEplFpF+ Eplnstyr 4-]0 lqGpE ?$$ tGpElGtzyF- jsHF+ mzzFGtyr GstF
FtxCwp IpEA Jplv nwlFFt¨pE EpoHnpF tGF CEpotnGtzy pEEzE ElGp mA lwxzFG l
qlnGzE zq qzHE- TG lwFz zHGCpEqzExF l Ftyrwp wlErp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy GEpp ’pEEzE
ElGp =?,fi0(- itynp tGF tyGEzoHnGtzy+ xHns slF mppy JEtGGpy Gz pKCwlty Gsp
FHnnpFF zq LolMzzFG ty CEzoHntyr lnnHElGp nwlFFt¨pEF- XzFG zq GstF JzEv
slF npyGpEpo zy HFtyr nwlFFt¨nlGtzy GEppF lF Gsp ˜mlFp wplEypE˙ R’K(+ JspEp
txCEzIpxpyGF lEp zqGpy xzFG oElxlGtn- Ty qlnG+ MEptxly ’YTfi bzEvFszC+
%––[( EpqpEEpo Gz LolMzzFG JtGs GEppF lF Gsp ˜mpFG zΓ!Gsp!Fspwq nwlFFt¨pE ty
Gsp JzEwo˙ ’Fpp lwFz MEptxly ’%––]((- jstF tF pFCpntlwwA Gsp nlFp qzE olGl!
xtytyr lCCwtnlGtzyF+ lF otFnHFFpo xzEp qHwwA ty ipnGtzy %$-fi wlGpE ty GstF
nslCGpE-
0.-0-0 ZHGwtyp zq jstF NslCGpE

SpEp tF ly zHGwtyp zq Gsp opIpwzCxpyGF ty GstF nslCGpE9
| bp FszJ GslG LolMzzFG ¨GF ly lootGtIp xzopw ty l mlFp wplEypE+

zCGtxtBtyr l yzIpw pKCzypyGtlw wzFF qHynGtzy- jstF wzFF qHynGtzy tF
%/-= MzzFGtyr QtGF ly LootGtIp czopw “?%
IpEA FtxtwlE Gz Gsp ’yprlGtIp( mtyzxtlw wzr!wtvpwtszzo ’ipnGtzyF %$-=8

%$-?(-
| jsp CzCHwlGtzy xtytxtBpE zq Gsp pKCzypyGtlw wzFF qHynGtzy tF FszJy
Gz mp Gsp wzr!zooF zq Gsp nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF ’ipnGtzy %$-4(-
| bp opFnEtmp wzFF qHynGtzyF qzE EprEpFFtzy lyo nwlFFt¨nlGtzy GslG lEp
xzEp EzmHFG Gsly FDHlEpo pEEzE zE pKCzypyGtlw wzFF ’ipnGtzy %$-[(-
| TG tF lErHpo GslG opntFtzy GEppF lEp ly toplw mlFp wplEypE qzE olGl
xtytyr lCCwtnlGtzyF zq mzzFGtyr ’ipnGtzyF %$-fi lyo %$-–(-
| bp opIpwzC l nwlFF zq rElotpyG mzzFGpo xzopwF ’RMXF(+ qzE mzzFGtyr
GEppF JtGs lyA wzFF qHynGtzy ’ipnGtzy %$-%$(-
| jsp txCzEGlynp zq ˜FwzJ wplEytyr˙ tF pxCslFtBpo+ lyo txCwpxpyGpo
mA FsEtyvlrp zq plns ypJ GpEx GslG pyGpEF Gsp xzopw ’ipnGtzy %$-%=(+
lF Jpww lF ElyozxtBlGtzy ’ipnGtzy %$-%=-=(-
| jzzwF qzE tyGpECEpGlGtzy zq Gsp ¨GGpo xzopw lEp opFnEtmpo ’ipnGtzy %$-%“(-
0.-1 MzzFGtyr QtGF ly LootGtIp czopw

jsp FHnnpFF zq mzzFGtyr tF EplwwA yzG IpEA xAFGpEtzHF- jsp vpA wtpF ty pK!
CEpFFtzy ’%$-%(- MzzFGtyr tF l JlA zq ¨GGtyr ly lootGtIp pKClyFtzy ty l FpG
zq pwpxpyGlEA ˜mlFtF˙ qHynGtzyF- SpEp Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF lEp Gsp tyotItoHlw
nwlFFt¨pEF Rx ’K( ∈ ·}%W %•- XzEp rpypElwwA+ mlFtF qHynGtzy pKClyFtzyF Glvp
Gsp qzEx
X
∑
q ’K( ˆ βx m’K: γx (W ’%$-“(
xˆ0
JspEp βx W x ˆ %W =W , , , W X lEp Gsp pKClyFtzy nzpffntpyGF+ lyo m’K: γ( ∈ Th
lEp HFHlwwA FtxCwp qHynGtzyF zq Gsp xHwGtIlEtlGp lErHxpyG K+ nslElnGpEtBpo
mA l FpG zq ClElxpGpEF γ- bp otFnHFF mlFtF pKClyFtzyF ty Fzxp opGltw ty
NslCGpE 4-
LootGtIp pKClyFtzyF wtvp GstF lEp lG Gsp splEG zq xlyA zq Gsp wplEytyr
GpnsytDHpF nzIpEpo ty GstF mzzv9
| Ty Ftyrwp!stoopy!wlApE ypHElw ypGJzEvF ’NslCGpE %%(+ m’K: γ( ˆ σ’γ$ )
γ0j K(+ JspEp σ’G( ˆ %.’% ) p}G ( tF Gsp Ftrxzto qHynGtzy+ lyo γ ClElx!
pGpEtBpF l wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy zq Gsp tyCHG IlEtlmwpF-
| Ty Ftrylw CEznpFFtyr+ JlIpwpGF ’ipnGtzy 4-–-%( lEp l CzCHwlE nsztnp JtGs
γ ClElxpGpEtBtyr Gsp wznlGtzy lyo Fnlwp FstqGF zq l ˜xzGspE˙ JlIpwpG-
| XHwGtIlEtlGp lolCGtIp EprEpFFtzy FCwtypF ’ipnGtzy –-?( HFpF GEHynlGpo!
CzJpE FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF JspEp γ ClElxpGpEtBpF Gsp IlEtlmwpF lyo
IlwHpF qzE Gsp vyzGF-
“?= %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
LwrzEtGsx 0.-ˆ QzEJlEo iGlrpJtFp LootGtIp Xzopwtyr-

%- TytGtlwtBp q$ ’K( ˆ $-
’l( NzxCHGp
Y
∑
’βx W γx ( ˆ lEr xty ’At W qx}0 ’Kt ( ) βm’Kt : γ((,
βWγ
tˆ0
’m( ipG qx ’K( ˆ qx}0 ’K( ) βx m’K: γx (-
| QzE GEppF+ γ ClElxpGpEtBpF Gsp FCwtG IlEtlmwpF lyo FCwtG CztyGF lG Gsp
tyGpEylw yzopF+ lyo Gsp CEpotnGtzyF lG Gsp GpExtylw yzopF-
jACtnlwwA GspFp xzopwF lEp ¨G mA xtytxtBtyr l wzFF qHynGtzy lIpElrpo

zIpE Gsp GEltytyr olGl+ FHns lF Gsp FDHlEpo!pEEzE zE l wtvpwtszzo!mlFpo wzFF
qHynGtzy+
Y
( X
1
∑ ∑
xty At W βx m’Kt : γx ( , ’%$-?(
·βK WγK |c
0 tˆ0 xˆ0
QzE xlyA wzFF qHynGtzyF ’AW q ’K(( lyo#zE mlFtF qHynGtzyF m’K: γ(+ GstF Ep!
DHtEpF nzxCHGlGtzylwwA tyGpyFtIp yHxpEtnlw zCGtxtBlGtzy GpnsytDHpF- SzJ!
pIpE+ l FtxCwp lwGpEylGtIp zqGpy nly mp qzHyo Jspy tG tF qplFtmwp Gz ElCtowA
FzwIp Gsp FHmCEzmwpx zq ¨GGtyr uHFG l Ftyrwp mlFtF qHynGtzy+
Y
∑
xty ’At W βm’Kt : γ(( , ’%$-4(
βWγ
tˆ0
0.-“ QzEUlEo iGlrpUtFp LootGtIp czopwtyr

QzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp xzopwtyr lCCEzKtxlGpF Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz ’%$-?( mA FpDHpy!
GtlwwA lootyr ypJ mlFtF qHynGtzyF Gz Gsp pKClyFtzy JtGszHG louHFGtyr Gsp
ClElxpGpEF lyo nzpffntpyGF zq GszFp GslG slIp lwEploA mppy loopo- jstF tF
zHGwtypo ty LwrzEtGsx %$-=- LG plns tGpElGtzy x+ zyp FzwIpF qzE Gsp zCGtxlw
mlFtF qHynGtzy m’K: γx ( lyo nzEEpFCzyotyr nzpffntpyG βx Gz loo Gz Gsp nHE!
EpyG pKClyFtzy qx}0 ’K(- jstF CEzoHnpF qx ’K(+ lyo Gsp CEznpFF tF EpCplGpo-
fEpItzHFwA loopo GpExF lEp yzG xzot¨po-
QzE FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF
’AW q ’K(( ˆ ’A } q ’K((= W ’%$-[(

%/-? PKCzypyGtlw zFF lyo LolMzzFG “?“
zyp slF
’At W qx}0 ’Kt ( ) βm’Kt : γ(( ˆ ’At } qx}0 ’Kt ( } βm’Kt : γ((=
ˆ ’Etx } βm’Kt : γ((= W ’%$-fi(
JspEp Etx ˆ At } qx}0 ’Kt ( tF FtxCwA Gsp EpFtoHlw zq Gsp nHEEpyG xzopw
zy Gsp tGs zmFpEIlGtzy- jsHF+ qzE FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF+ Gsp GpEx βx m’K: γx (
GslG mpFG ¨GF Gsp nHEEpyG EpFtoHlwF tF loopo Gz Gsp pKClyFtzy lG plns FGpC-
jstF topl tF Gsp mlFtF qzE ˜wplFG FDHlEpF˙ EprEpFFtzy mzzFGtyr otFnHFFpo ty
ipnGtzy %$-%$-=- SzJpIpE+ lF Jp FszJ yplE Gsp pyo zq Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy+
FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF tF rpypElwwA yzG l rzzo nsztnp qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy: spynp
Gsp yppo Gz nzyFtopE zGspE wzFF nEtGpEtl-
0.-? PKCzypyGtlw zFF lyo LolMzzFG

bp yzJ FszJ GslG LolMzzFG-X% ’LwrzEtGsx %$-%( tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz qzEJlEo
FGlrpJtFp lootGtIp xzopwtyr ’LwrzEtGsx %$-=( HFtyr Gsp wzFF qHynGtzy
’AW q ’K(( ˆ pKC’}A q ’K((, ’%$-](
jsp lCCEzCEtlGpypFF zq GstF nEtGpEtzy tF looEpFFpo ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy-

QzE LolMzzFG Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF lEp Gsp tyotItoHlw nwlFFt¨pEF Rx ’K( ∈
·}%W %•- kFtyr Gsp pKCzypyGtlw wzFF qHynGtzy+ zyp xHFG FzwIp
Y
∑
’βx W Rx ( ˆ lEr xty pKC”}At ’qx}0 ’Kt ( ) β R’Kt ((fl
βWR
tˆ0
qzE Gsp nwlFFt¨pE Rx lyo nzEEpFCzyotyr nzpffntpyG βx Gz mp loopo lG plns

FGpC- jstF nly mp pKCEpFFpo lF
Y
∑ Wx(
’βx W Rx ( ˆ lEr xty Jt pKC’}β At R’Kt (( ’%$-–(
βWR
tˆ0
Wx( Wx(
JtGs Jt ˆ pKC’}At qx}0 ’Kt ((- itynp plns Jt opCpyoF yptGspE zy β
yzE R’K(+ tG nly mp EprlEopo lF l JptrsG GslG tF lCCwtpo Gz plns zmFpEIl!
Gtzy- jstF JptrsG opCpyoF zy qx}0 ’Kt (+ lyo Fz Gsp tyotItoHlw JptrsG IlwHpF
nslyrp JtGs plns tGpElGtzy x-
jsp FzwHGtzy Gz ’%$-–( nly mp zmGltypo ty GJz FGpCF- QtEFG+ qzE lyA IlwHp
zq β / $+ Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz ’%$-–( qzE Rx ’K( tF
Y
∑ Wx(
Rx ˆ lEr xty Jt T’At 0ˆ R’Kt ((W ’%$-%$(
R
tˆ0
“?? %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
Jstns tF Gsp nwlFFt¨pE GslG xtytxtBpF Gsp JptrsGpo pEEzE ElGp ty CEpotnGtyr
A- jstF nly mp plFtwA Fppy mA pKCEpFFtyr Gsp nEtGpEtzy ty ’%$-–( lF
∑ Wx(
∑ Wx(
p}β ± Jt ) pβ ± Jt W
At ˆRWKt ( At ′ˆRWKt (
Jstns ty GHEy nly mp JEtGGpy lF

Y Y
$ β % ∑ Wx(
∑ Wx(
p } p}β ± Jt T’At 0ˆ R’Kt (( ) p}β ± Jt , ’%$-%%(
tˆ0 tˆ0
fwHrrtyr GstF Rx tyGz ’%$-–( lyo FzwItyr qzE β zyp zmGltyF

% % } pEEx
βx ˆ wzr W ’%$-%=(
= pEEx
JspEp pEEx tF Gsp xtytxtBpo JptrsGpo pEEzE ElGp
(Y Wx(
J T’At 0ˆ Rx ’Kt ((
pEEx ˆ tˆ0 t(Y Wx(
, ’%$-%“(
tˆ0 Jt
jsp lCCEzKtxlGtzy tF Gspy HColGpo

qx ’K( ˆ qx}0 ’K( ) βx Rx ’K(W
Jstns nlHFpF Gsp JptrsGF qzE Gsp ypKG tGpElGtzy Gz mp
Wx)0( Wx(
Jt ˆ Jt ± p}βK At RK WKt ( , ’%$-%?(
kFtyr Gsp qlnG GslG }At Rx ’Kt ( ˆ = ± T’At 0ˆ Rx ’Kt (( } %+ ’%$-%?( mpnzxpF
Wx)0( Wx(
Jt ˆ Jt ± pαK TWAt ′ˆRK WKt (( ± p}βK W ’%$-%4(
JspEp αx ˆ =βx tF Gsp DHlyGtGA opÿpo lG wtyp =n zq LolMzzFG-X% ’Lw!
rzEtGsx %$-%(- jsp qlnGzE p}βK ty ’%$-%4( xHwGtCwtpF lww JptrsGF mA Gsp
Flxp IlwHp+ Fz tG slF yz pΓpnG- jsHF ’%$-%4( tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz wtyp =’o( zq
LwrzEtGsx %$-%-
Zyp nly ItpJ wtyp =’l( zq Gsp LolmzzFG-X% lwrzEtGsx lF l xpGszo qzE
lCCEzKtxlGpwA FzwItyr Gsp xtytxtBlGtzy ty ’%$-%%( lyo spynp ’%$-%$(- Spynp
Jp nzynwHop GslG LolMzzFG-X% xtytxtBpF Gsp pKCzypyGtlw wzFF nEtGpEtzy
’%$-]( Itl l qzEJlEo!FGlrpJtFp lootGtIp xzopwtyr lCCEzlns-
QtrHEp %$-“ FszJF Gsp GEltytyr!FpG xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE ElGp lyo lIpE!
lrp pKCzypyGtlw wzFF qzE Gsp FtxHwlGpo olGl CEzmwpx ’%$-=( zq QtrHEp %$-=-
jsp GEltytyr!FpG xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE opnEplFpF Gz BpEz lG lEzHyo =4$ tG!
pElGtzyF ’lyo EpxltyF GspEp(+ mHG Gsp pKCzypyGtlw wzFF vppCF opnEplFtyr-
YzGtnp lwFz ty QtrHEp %$-= GslG Gsp GpFG!FpG xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE nzyGtyHpF
Gz txCEzIp lqGpE tGpElGtzy =4$- NwplEwA LolmzzFG tF yzG zCGtxtBtyr GEltytyr!
FpG xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE: Gsp pKCzypyGtlw wzFF tF xzEp FpyFtGtIp Gz nslyrpF
ty Gsp pFGtxlGpo nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF-
%/-4 bsA PKCzypyGtlw zFF3 “?4
1.0
0.8
0.6
Training Error
0.4
Exponential Loss
0.2
0.0
0 100 200 300 400
Boosting Iterations
QTRIFD 0.W2W itxHwlGpo olGl+ mzzFGtyr JtGs FGHxCF9 xtFnwlFFt6nlGtzy pEEzE

ElGp zy Gsp GEltytyr FpG+ lyo lIpElrp pKCzypyGtlw wzFF9 ’%.Y ( B
C
tˆ0 pKC’}L t q ’K t ((-
LqGpE lmzHG =4/ tGpElGtzyF+ Gsp xtFnwlFFt6nlGtzy pEEzE tF BpEz+ Jstwp Gsp pKCzypyGtlw
wzFF nzyGtyHpF Gz opnEplFp-
0.-4 bsA PKCzypyGtlw zFF3

jsp LolMzzFG-X% lwrzEtGsx JlF zEtrtylwwA xzGtIlGpo qEzx l IpEA otΓpE!
pyG CpEFCpnGtIp Gsly CEpFpyGpo ty Gsp CEpItzHF FpnGtzy- TGF pDHtIlwpynp Gz
qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp lootGtIp xzopwtyr mlFpo zy pKCzypyGtlw wzFF JlF zywA
otFnzIpEpo Ïp AplEF lqGpE tGF tynpCGtzy- MA FGHoAtyr Gsp CEzCpEGtpF zq Gsp
pKCzypyGtlw wzFF nEtGpEtzy+ zyp nly rlty tyFtrsG tyGz Gsp CEznpoHEp lyo otF!
nzIpE JlAF tG xtrsG mp txCEzIpo-
jsp CEtyntClw lGGElnGtzy zq pKCzypyGtlw wzFF ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq lootGtIp
xzopwtyr tF nzxCHGlGtzylw: tG wploF Gz Gsp FtxCwp xzoHwlE EpJptrsGtyr Lo!
lMzzFG lwrzEtGsx- SzJpIpE+ tG tF zq tyGpEpFG Gz tyDHtEp lmzHG tGF FGlGtFGtnlw
CEzCpEGtpF- bslG ozpF tG pFGtxlGp lyo szJ Jpww tF tG mptyr pFGtxlGpo¯ jsp
ËFG DHpFGtzy tF lyFJpEpo mA Fppvtyr tGF CzCHwlGtzy xtytxtBpE-
TG tF plFA Gz FszJ ’QEtpoxly pG lw-+ =$$$( GslG
% fE’d ˆ %KK(
q { ’K( ˆ lEr xty Pd KK ’p}d q WK( ( ˆ wzr W ’%$-%[(
q WK( = fE’d ˆ }%KK(
“?[ %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
zE pDHtIlwpyGwA
%
fE’d ˆ %KK( ˆ ,
%) p}=q ∗ WK(
jsHF+ Gsp lootGtIp pKClyFtzy CEzoHnpo mA LolMzzFG tF pFGtxlGtyr zyp!
slwq Gsp wzr!zooF zq f ’d ˆ %KK(- jstF uHFGt¨pF HFtyr tGF Ftry lF Gsp nwlFFt¨!
nlGtzy EHwp ty ’%$-%(-
LyzGspE wzFF nEtGpEtzy JtGs Gsp Flxp CzCHwlGtzy xtytxtBpE tF Gsp mt!
yzxtlw yprlGtIp wzr!wtvpwtszzo zE opItlynp ’lwFz vyzJy lF nEzFF!pyGEzCA(+
tyGpECEpGtyr q lF Gsp wzrtG GElyFqzEx- pG
pq WK( %
C’K( ˆ fE’d ˆ % K K( ˆ ˆ ’%$-%fi(
p}q WK( ) pq WK( % ) p}=q WK(
lyo opÿp d ′ ˆ ’d ) %(.= ∈ ·$W %•- jspy Gsp mtyzxtlw wzr!wtvpwtszzo wzFF
qHynGtzy tF
w’dW C’K(( ˆ d ′ wzr C’K( ) ’% } d ′ ( wzr’% } C’K((W
zE pDHtIlwpyGwA Gsp opItlynp tF

& '
}w’dW q ’K(( ˆ wzr % ) p}=d q WK( , ’%$-%](
itynp Gsp CzCHwlGtzy xlKtxtBpE zq wzr!wtvpwtszzo tF lG Gsp GEHp CEzmlmtwtGtpF

C’K( ˆ fE’d ˆ % K K(+ Jp Fpp qEzx ’%$-%fi( GslG Gsp CzCHwlGtzy xtytxtBpEF zq
Gsp opItlynp Pd KK ”}w’dW q ’K((fl lyo Pd KK ”p}d q WK( fl lEp Gsp Flxp- jsHF+ HFtyr
ptGspE nEtGpEtzy wploF Gz Gsp Flxp FzwHGtzy lG Gsp CzCHwlGtzy wpIpw- YzGp GslG
p}d q tGFpwq tF yzG l CEzCpE wzr!wtvpwtszzo+ Ftynp tG tF yzG Gsp wzrlEtGsx zq
lyA CEzmlmtwtGA xlFF qHynGtzy qzE l mtylEA Elyozx IlEtlmwp d ∈ ·}%W %•-
0.-” zFF QHynGtzyF lyo hzmHFGypFF

Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp pKlxtyp Gsp otΓpEpyG wzFF qHynGtzyF qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lyo
EprEpFFtzy xzEp nwzFpwA+ lyo nslElnGpEtBp Gspx ty GpExF zq GsptE EzmHFGypFF
Gz pKGEpxp olGl-
hzmHFG zFF QHynGtzyF qzE NwlFFt¨nlGtzy

LwGszHrs mzGs Gsp pKCzypyGtlw ’%$-]( lyo mtyzxtlw opItlynp ’%$-%]( Atpwo
Gsp Flxp FzwHGtzy Jspy lCCwtpo Gz Gsp CzCHwlGtzy uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy+ Gsp
Flxp tF yzG GEHp qzE ÿtGp olGl FpGF- MzGs nEtGpEtl lEp xzyzGzyp opnEplFtyr
qHynGtzyF zq Gsp ˜xlErty˙ Aq ’K(- Ty nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ’JtGs l }%.% EpFCzyFp(
Gsp xlErty CwlAF l Ezwp lylwzrzHF Gz Gsp EpFtoHlwF A}q ’K( ty EprEpFFtzy- jsp
nwlFFt¨nlGtzy EHwp R’K( ˆ Ftry”q ’K(fl txCwtpF GslG zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGs CzFtGtIp
xlErty At q ’Kt ( / $ lEp nwlFFt¨po nzEEpnGwA JspEplF GszFp JtGs yprlGtIp
xlErty At q ’Kt ( ı $ lEp xtFnwlFFt¨po- jsp opntFtzy mzHyolEA tF opÿpo mA
%/-[ zFF QHynGtzyF lyo hzmHFGypFF “?fi
3.0
Misclassification
Exponential
Binomial Deviance
2.5
Squared Error
2.0 Support Vector
zFF
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
−2 −1 0 1 2
A±D
QTRIFD 0.W3W zFF qHynGtzyF qzE GJz,nwlFF nwlFFt6nlGtzy- jsp EpFCzyFp tF

L ˆ ±%‘ Gsp CEpotnGtzy tF q + JtGs nwlFF CEpotnGtzy Ftry’q (- jsp wzFFpF lEp
xtFnwlFFt6nlGtzy9 T’Ftry’q ( ≫ˆ L(‘ pKCzypyGtlw9 pKC’}Lq (‘ mtyzxtlw opItlynp9
wzr’% ) pKC’}=Lq ((‘ FDHlEpo pEEzE9 ’L } q (= ‘ lyo FHCCzEG IpnGzE9 ’% } Lq () ’Fpp
ipnGtzy %=-“(- Plns qHynGtzy slF mppy Fnlwpo Fz GslG tG ClFFpF GsEzHrs Gsp CztyG
’/W %(-
q ’K( ˆ $- jsp rzlw zq Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lwrzEtGsx tF Gz CEzoHnp CzFtGtIp

xlErtyF lF qEpDHpyGwA lF CzFFtmwp- LyA wzFF nEtGpEtzy HFpo qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
FszHwo CpylwtBp yprlGtIp xlErtyF xzEp splItwA Gsly CzFtGtIp zypF Ftynp
CzFtGtIp xlErty zmFpEIlGtzyF lEp lwEploA nzEEpnGwA nwlFFt¨po-
QtrHEp %$-? FszJF mzGs Gsp pKCzypyGtlw ’%$-]( lyo mtyzxtlw opItlynp
nEtGpEtl lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp xlErty A ± q ’K(- LwFz FszJy tF xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy
wzFF ’AW q ’K(( ˆ T’A ± q ’K( ı $(+ Jstns rtIpF HytG CpylwGA qzE yprlGtIp xlE!
rty IlwHpF+ lyo yz CpylwGA lG lww qzE CzFtGtIp zypF- MzGs Gsp pKCzypyGtlw
lyo opItlynp wzFF nly mp ItpJpo lF xzyzGzyp nzyGtyHzHF lCCEzKtxlGtzyF
Gz xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy wzFF- jspA nzyGtyHzHFwA CpylwtBp tynEplFtyrwA yprlGtIp
xlErty IlwHpF xzEp splItwA Gsly GspA EpJlEo tynEplFtyrwA CzFtGtIp zypF-
jsp otΓpEpynp mpGJppy Gspx tF ty oprEpp- jsp CpylwGA lFFzntlGpo JtGs mt!
yzxtlw opItlynp tynEplFpF wtyplEwA qzE wlErp tynEplFtyrwA yprlGtIp xlErty+
JspEplF Gsp pKCzypyGtlw nEtGpEtzy tynEplFpF Gsp ty7Hpynp zq FHns zmFpEIl!
GtzyF pKCzypyGtlwwA-
LG lyA CztyG ty Gsp GEltytyr CEznpFF Gsp pKCzypyGtlw nEtGpEtzy nzynpy!
GElGpF xHns xzEp ty7Hpynp zy zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGs wlErp yprlGtIp xlErtyF-
Mtyzxtlw opItlynp nzynpyGElGpF EpwlGtIpwA wpFF ty7Hpynp zy FHns zmFpEIl!
“?] %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
GtzyF+ xzEp pIpywA FCEplotyr Gsp ty7Hpynp lxzyr lww zq Gsp olGl- TG tF
GspEpqzEp qlE xzEp EzmHFG ty yztFA FpGGtyrF JspEp Gsp MlApF pEEzE ElGp tF
yzG nwzFp Gz BpEz+ lyo pFCpntlwwA ty FtGHlGtzyF JspEp GspEp tF xtFFCpnt¨nlGtzy
zq Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF ty Gsp GEltytyr olGl- jsp CpEqzExlynp zq LolMzzFG slF
mppy pxCtEtnlwwA zmFpEIpo Gz oElxlGtnlwwA oprElop ty FHns FtGHlGtzyF-
LwFz FszJy ty Gsp ¨rHEp tF FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF- jsp xtytxtBpE zq Gsp nzE!
EpFCzyotyr EtFv zy Gsp CzCHwlGtzy tF
q { ’K( ˆ lEr xty Pd KK ’d }q ’K((= ˆ P’d K K( ˆ =±fE’d ˆ % K K(}%, ’%$-%–(

q WK(
LF mpqzEp Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy EHwp tF R’K( ˆ Ftry”q ’K(fl- iDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF

tF yzG l rzzo FHEEzrlGp qzE xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE- LF Fppy ty QtrHEp %$-?+ tG
tF yzG l xzyzGzyp opnEplFtyr qHynGtzy zq tynEplFtyr xlErty Aq ’K(- QzE xlE!
rty IlwHpF At q ’Kt ( / % tG tynEplFpF DHloElGtnlwwA+ GspEpmA Cwlntyr tynEplFtyr
ty7Hpynp ’pEEzE( zy zmFpEIlGtzyF GslG lEp nzEEpnGwA nwlFFt¨po JtGs tynEplF!
tyr npEGltyGA+ GspEpmA EpoHntyr Gsp EpwlGtIp ty7Hpynp zq GszFp tynzEEpnGwA
nwlFFt¨po At q ’Kt ( ı $- jsHF+ tq nwlFF lFFtryxpyG tF Gsp rzlw+ l xzyzGzyp op!
nEplFtyr nEtGpEtzy FpEIpF lF l mpGGpE FHEEzrlGp wzFF qHynGtzy- QtrHEp %=-? zy
Clrp ?=[ ty NslCGpE %= tynwHopF l xzot¨nlGtzy zq DHloElGtn wzFF+ Gsp ˜SH!
mpEtBpo˙ FDHlEp styrp wzFF ’hzFFpG pG lw-+ =$$?m(+ Jstns pyuzAF Gsp qlIzElmwp
CEzCpEGtpF zq Gsp mtyzxtlw opItlynp+ DHloElGtn wzFF lyo Gsp iaX styrp wzFF-
TG slF Gsp Flxp CzCHwlGtzy xtytxtBpE lF Gsp DHloElGtn ’%$-%–(+ tF BpEz qzE
A ± q ’K( / %+ lyo mpnzxpF wtyplE qzE A ± q ’K( ı }%- itynp DHloElGtn qHynGtzyF
lEp plFtpE Gz nzxCHGp JtGs Gsly pKCzypyGtlwF+ zHE pKCpEtpynp FHrrpFGF GstF
Gz mp l HFpqHw lwGpEylGtIp Gz Gsp mtyzxtlw opItlynp-
btGs V!nwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ Gsp EpFCzyFp d GlvpF IlwHpF ty Gsp HyzEopEpo
FpG Q ˆ ·Q0 W , , , W Qv • ’Fpp ipnGtzyF =-? lyo ?-?(- bp yzJ Fppv l nwlFFt¨pE
R’K( Glvtyr IlwHpF ty Q- TG tF FHffntpyG Gz vyzJ Gsp nwlFF nzyotGtzylw CEzml!
mtwtGtpF Cv ’K( ˆ fE’d ˆ Qv KK(W v ˆ %W =W , , , W V+ qzE Gspy Gsp MlApF nwlFFt¨pE
tF
R’K( ˆ Qv JspEp v ˆ lEr xlK Cℓ ’K(, ’%$-=$(
ℓ
Ty CEtyntClw+ GszHrs+ Jp yppo yzG wplEy Gsp Cv ’K(+ mHG FtxCwA Jstns zyp tF
wlErpFG- SzJpIpE+ ty olGl xtytyr lCCwtnlGtzyF Gsp tyGpEpFG tF zqGpy xzEp ty
Gsp nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF Cℓ ’K(W ℓ ˆ %W , , , W V GspxFpwIpF+ ElGspE Gsly ty CpE!
qzExtyr l nwlFF lFFtryxpyG- LF ty ipnGtzy ?-?+ Gsp wzrtFGtn xzopw rpypElwtBpF
ylGHElwwA Gz V nwlFFpF+
pqv WK(
Cv ’K( ˆ (V W ’%$-=%(
qk WK(
wˆ0 p
Jstns pyFHEpF GslG $ ≤ Cv ’K( ≤ % lyo GslG GspA FHx Gz zyp- YzGp GslG
spEp Jp slIp V otΓpEpyG qHynGtzyF+ zyp CpE nwlFF- jspEp tF l EpoHyolynA
ty Gsp qHynGtzyF qv ’K(+ Ftynp lootyr ly lEmtGElEA s’K( Gz plns wplIpF Gsp
xzopw Hynslyrpo- jElotGtzylwwA zyp zq Gspx tF FpG Gz BpEz9 qzE pKlxCwp+
%/-[ zFF QHynGtzyF lyo hzmHFGypFF “?–
qV ’K( ˆ $+ lF ty ’?-%fi(- SpEp Jp CEpqpE Gz EpGlty Gsp FAxxpGEA+ lyo txCzFp

(V
Gsp nzyFGEltyG vˆ0 qv ’K( ˆ $- jsp mtyzxtlw opItlynp pKGpyoF ylGHElwwA
Gz Gsp V!nwlFF xHwGtyzxtlw opItlynp wzFF qHynGtzy9
V
∑
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vˆ0
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qℓ WK(
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vˆ0 ℓˆ0
LF ty Gsp GJz!nwlFF nlFp+ Gsp nEtGpEtzy ’%$-==( CpylwtBpF tynzEEpnG CEpotnGtzyF

zywA wtyplEwA ty GsptE oprEpp zq tynzEEpnGypFF-
esH pG lw- ’=$$4( rpypElwtBp Gsp pKCzypyGtlw wzFF qzE V!nwlFF CEzmwpxF-
ipp PKpEntFp %$-4 qzE opGltwF-
hzmHFG zFF QHynGtzyF qzE hprEpFFtzy

Ty Gsp EprEpFFtzy FpGGtyr+ lylwzrzHF Gz Gsp EpwlGtzyFstC mpGJppy pKCzypyGtlw
wzFF lyo mtyzxtlw wzr!wtvpwtszzo tF Gsp EpwlGtzyFstC mpGJppy FDHlEpo!pEEzE
wzFF ’AW q ’K(( ˆ ’A }q ’K((= lyo lmFzwHGp wzFF ’AW q ’K(( ˆ K A }q ’K( K- jsp
CzCHwlGtzy FzwHGtzyF lEp q ’K( ˆ P’d KK( qzE FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF+ lyo q ’K( ˆ
xpotly’d KK( qzE lmFzwHGp wzFF: qzE FAxxpGEtn pEEzE otFGEtmHGtzyF GspFp lEp
Gsp Flxp- SzJpIpE+ zy ÿtGp FlxCwpF FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF CwlnpF xHns xzEp
pxCslFtF zy zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGs wlErp lmFzwHGp EpFtoHlwF K At } q ’Kt ( K oHEtyr
Gsp ¨GGtyr CEznpFF- TG tF GsHF qlE wpFF EzmHFG+ lyo tGF CpEqzExlynp FpIpEpwA
oprElopF qzE wzyr!Gltwpo pEEzE otFGEtmHGtzyF lyo pFCpntlwwA qzE rEzFFwA xtF!
xplFHEpo A!IlwHpF ’˜zHGwtpEF˙(- ZGspE xzEp EzmHFG nEtGpEtl+ FHns lF lmFz!
wHGp wzFF+ CpEqzEx xHns mpGGpE ty GspFp FtGHlGtzyF- Ty Gsp FGlGtFGtnlw Ez!
mHFGypFF wtGpElGHEp+ l IlEtpGA zq EprEpFFtzy wzFF nEtGpEtl slIp mppy CEzCzFpo
GslG CEzItop FGEzyr EpFtFGlynp ’tq yzG lmFzwHGp txxHytGA( Gz rEzFF zHGwtpEF
Jstwp mptyr yplEwA lF pffntpyG lF wplFG FDHlEpF qzE RlHFFtly pEEzEF- jspA
lEp zqGpy mpGGpE Gsly ptGspE qzE pEEzE otFGEtmHGtzyF JtGs xzopElGpwA splIA
GltwF- Zyp FHns nEtGpEtzy tF Gsp SHmpE wzFF nEtGpEtzy HFpo qzE X!EprEpFFtzy
’SHmpE+ %–[?(
{
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QtrHEp %$-4 nzxClEpF GspFp GsEpp wzFF qHynGtzyF-

jspFp nzyFtopElGtzyF FHrrpFG Gsly Jspy EzmHFGypFF tF l nzynpEy+ lF tF
pFCpntlwwA Gsp nlFp ty olGl xtytyr lCCwtnlGtzyF ’Fpp ipnGtzy %$-fi(+ FDHlEpo!
pEEzE wzFF qzE EprEpFFtzy lyo pKCzypyGtlw wzFF qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lEp yzG Gsp
mpFG nEtGpEtl qEzx l FGlGtFGtnlw CpEFCpnGtIp- SzJpIpE+ GspA mzGs wplo Gz Gsp
pwprlyG xzoHwlE mzzFGtyr lwrzEtGsxF ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp
lootGtIp xzopwtyr- QzE FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF zyp FtxCwA ¨GF Gsp mlFp wplEypE
Gz Gsp EpFtoHlwF qEzx Gsp nHEEpyG xzopw At } qx}0 ’Kt ( lG plns FGpC- QzE
“4/ %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
Squared Error
Absolute Error
Huber
8
6
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4
2
0
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QTRIFD 0.W4W L nzxClEtFzy zq GsEpp wzFF qHynGtzyF qzE EprEpFFtzy+ CwzGGpo lF l

qHynGtzy zq Gsp xlErty L}q - jsp SHmpE wzFF qHynGtzy nzxmtypF Gsp rzzo CEzCpEGtpF
zq FDHlEpo,pEEzE wzFF yplE BpEz lyo lmFzwHGp pEEzE wzFF Jspy VL } q V tF wlErp-
pKCzypyGtlw wzFF zyp CpEqzExF l JptrsGpo ¨G zq Gsp mlFp wplEypE Gz Gsp

zHGCHG IlwHpF At + JtGs JptrsGF Jt ˆ pKC’}At qx}0 ’Kt ((- kFtyr zGspE xzEp
EzmHFG nEtGpEtl otEpnGwA ty GsptE Cwlnp ozpF yzG rtIp EtFp Gz FHns FtxCwp
qplFtmwp mzzFGtyr lwrzEtGsxF- SzJpIpE+ ty ipnGtzy %$-%$-= Jp FszJ szJ zyp
nly opEtIp FtxCwp pwprlyG mzzFGtyr lwrzEtGsxF mlFpo zy lyA otΓpEpyGtlmwp
wzFF nEtGpEtzy+ GspEpmA CEzoHntyr strswA EzmHFG mzzFGtyr CEznpoHEpF qzE olGl
xtytyr-
0.-fi 2Z:,Gsp,ispwq5 fEznpoHEpF qzE OlGl ctytyr

fEpotnGtIp wplEytyr tF ly txCzEGlyG lFCpnG zq olGl xtytyr- LF nly mp Fppy
qEzx GstF mzzv+ l Jtop IlEtpGA zq xpGszoF slIp mppy opIpwzCpo qzE CEpotn!
GtIp wplEytyr qEzx olGl- QzE plns ClEGtnHwlE xpGszo GspEp lEp FtGHlGtzyF
qzE Jstns tG tF ClEGtnHwlEwA Jpww FHtGpo+ lyo zGspEF JspEp tG CpEqzExF mlowA
nzxClEpo Gz Gsp mpFG GslG nly mp ozyp JtGs GslG olGl- bp slIp lGGpxCGpo
Gz nslElnGpEtBp lCCEzCEtlGp FtGHlGtzyF ty zHE otFnHFFtzyF zq plns zq Gsp Ep!
FCpnGtIp xpGszoF- SzJpIpE+ tG tF Fpwozx vyzJy ty loIlynp Jstns CEznpoHEp
Jtww CpEqzEx mpFG zE pIpy Jpww qzE lyA rtIpy CEzmwpx- jlmwp %$-% FHxxlEtBpF
Fzxp zq Gsp nslElnGpEtFGtnF zq l yHxmpE zq wplEytyr xpGszoF-
TyoHFGEtlw lyo nzxxpEntlw olGl xtytyr lCCwtnlGtzyF Gpyo Gz mp pFCpntlwwA
nslwwpyrtyr ty GpExF zq Gsp EpDHtEpxpyGF Cwlnpo zy wplEytyr CEznpoHEpF-
OlGl FpGF lEp zqGpy IpEA wlErp ty GpExF zq yHxmpE zq zmFpEIlGtzyF lyo
yHxmpE zq IlEtlmwpF xplFHEpo zy plns zq Gspx- jsHF+ nzxCHGlGtzylw nzy!
%/-fi ˜Z∆,Gsp,ispwq5 fEznpoHEpF qzE OlGl ctytyr “4%
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▼—qltE+ lyo ▲—CzzE-
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YpGF VpEypwF
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tyCHG FClnp
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nzxmtylGtzyF zq qplGHEpF
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fEpotnGtIp CzJpE ❑ ❑ ▲ ▼ ❑
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tyCHGF Gpyo Gz mp xtKGHEpF zq DHlyGtGlGtIp+ mtylEA+ lyo nlGprzEtnlw IlEt!
lmwpF+ Gsp wlGGpE zqGpy JtGs xlyA wpIpwF- jspEp lEp rpypElwwA xlyA xtFFtyr
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GzE lyo EpFCzyFp IlEtlmwpF lEp zqGpy wzyr!Gltwpo lyo strswA FvpJpo- jstF
tF Gsp nlFp qzE Gsp FClx olGl ’ipnGtzy –-%-=(: Jspy ¨GGtyr l rpypElwtBpo
lootGtIp xzopw+ Jp ËFG wzr!GElyFqzExpo plns zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF ty zEopE Gz
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zq rEzFF xtF!xplFHEpxpyGF ’zHGwtpEF(- jsp CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwpF lEp rpypElwwA
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pwF- TG tF yzG pyzHrs Gz FtxCwA CEzoHnp CEpotnGtzyF- TG tF lwFz opFtElmwp Gz
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FCzyFp IlwHp- jsHF+ mwlnv mzK xpGszoF FHns lF ypHElw ypGJzEvF+ Jstns nly
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lEp qlE wpFF HFpqHw qzE olGl xtytyr-
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Zq lww Gsp Jpww!vyzJy wplEytyr xpGszoF+ opntFtzy GEppF nzxp nwzFpFG Gz
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xzopwF ’tq Gsp GEppF lEp Fxlww(- LF otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy –-=+ GspA ylGHElwwA
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GtzyF zq Gsp tyotItoHlw CEpotnGzEF- LF l EpFHwG+ Fnlwtyr lyo#zE xzEp rpypElw
GElyFqzExlGtzyF lEp yzG ly tFFHp+ lyo GspA lEp txxHyp Gz Gsp pΓpnGF zq CEp!
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zq Gsp CEznpoHEp- jspA lEp GspEpmA EpFtFGlyG+ tq yzG nzxCwpGpwA txxHyp+
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opntFtzy GEppF lEp wlErpwA Gsp EplFzy GslG GspA slIp pxpErpo lF Gsp xzFG
CzCHwlE wplEytyr xpGszo qzE olGl xtytyr-
jEppF slIp zyp lFCpnG GslG CEpIpyGF Gspx qEzx mptyr Gsp toplw Gzzw qzE
CEpotnGtIp wplEytyr+ ylxpwA tylnnHElnA- jspA Fpwozx CEzItop CEpotnGtIp ln!
nHElnA nzxClElmwp Gz Gsp mpFG GslG nly mp lnstpIpo JtGs Gsp olGl lG slyo-
LF Fppy ty ipnGtzy %$-%+ mzzFGtyr opntFtzy GEppF txCEzIpF GsptE lnnHElnA+
zqGpy oElxlGtnlwwA- LG Gsp Flxp Gtxp tG xltyGltyF xzFG zq GsptE opFtElmwp
CEzCpEGtpF qzE olGl xtytyr- izxp loIlyGlrpF zq GEppF GslG lEp FlnEt¨npo mA
mzzFGtyr lEp FCppo+ tyGpECEpGlmtwtGA+ lyo+ qzE LolMzzFG+ EzmHFGypFF lrltyFG
zIpEwlCCtyr nwlFF otFGEtmHGtzyF lyo pFCpntlwwA xtFwlmpwtyr zq Gsp GEltytyr
olGl- L rElotpyG mzzFGpo xzopw ’RMX( tF l rpypElwtBlGtzy zq GEpp mzzFGtyr
GslG lGGpxCGF Gz xtGtrlGp GspFp CEzmwpxF+ Fz lF Gz CEzoHnp ly lnnHElGp lyo
pΓpnGtIp zΓ!Gsp!Fspwq CEznpoHEp qzE olGl xtytyr-
0.-7 PKlxCwp9 iClx OlGl

MpqzEp Jp rz tyGz Gsp opGltwF zq rElotpyG mzzFGtyr+ Jp opxzyFGElGp tGF lmtwt!
GtpF zy l GJz!nwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpx- jsp FClx olGl lEp tyGEzoHnpo ty
NslCGpE %+ lyo HFpo lF ly pKlxCwp qzE xlyA zq Gsp CEznpoHEpF ty NslCGpE –
’ipnGtzyF –-%-=+ –-=-4+ –-“-% lyo –-?-%(-
LCCwAtyr rElotpyG mzzFGtyr Gz GspFp olGl EpFHwGpo ty l GpFG pEEzE ElGp zq
?-40+ HFtyr Gsp Flxp GpFG FpG lF JlF HFpo ty ipnGtzy –-%-=- MA nzxClEtFzy+
ly lootGtIp wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy lnstpIpo 4-40+ l NLhj GEpp qHwwA rEzJy lyo
%/-– MzzFGtyr jEppF “4“
CEHypo mA nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy ]-fi0+ lyo XLhi 4-40- jsp FGlyolEo pEEzE zq

GspFp pFGtxlGpF tF lEzHyo $-[0+ lwGszHrs rElotpyG mzzFGtyr tF Ftryt¨nlyGwA
mpGGpE Gsly lww zq Gspx HFtyr Gsp XnYpxlE GpFG ’PKpEntFp %$-[(-
Ty ipnGtzy %$-%“ mpwzJ Jp opIpwzC l EpwlGtIp txCzEGlynp xplFHEp qzE
plns CEpotnGzE+ lF Jpww lF l ClEGtlw opCpyopynp CwzG opFnEtmtyr l CEpotnGzE&F
nzyGEtmHGtzy Gz Gsp ¨GGpo xzopw- bp yzJ twwHFGElGp GspFp qzE Gsp FClx olGl-
QtrHEp %$-[ otFCwlAF Gsp EpwlGtIp txCzEGlynp FCpnGEHx qzE lww 4fi CEpotnGzE
IlEtlmwpF- NwplEwA Fzxp CEpotnGzEF lEp xzEp txCzEGlyG Gsly zGspEF ty FpC!
lElGtyr FClx qEzx pxltw- jsp qEpDHpyntpF zq Gsp nslElnGpE FGEtyrF ,+ /+ sC+
lyo EpxzIp lEp pFGtxlGpo Gz mp Gsp qzHE xzFG EpwpIlyG CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwpF-
LG Gsp zGspE pyo zq Gsp FCpnGEHx+ Gsp nslElnGpE FGEtyrF 746+ 3%4+ Glmwp+ lyo
2o slIp ItEGHlwwA yz EpwpIlynp-
jsp DHlyGtGA mptyr xzopwpo spEp tF Gsp wzr!zooF zq FClx IpEFHF pxltw
fE’FClxKK(
q ’K( ˆ wzr ’%$-=?(
fE’pxltwKK(
’Fpp ipnGtzy %$-%“ mpwzJ(- QtrHEp %$-fi FszJF Gsp ClEGtlw opCpyopynp zq Gsp
wzr!zooF zy FpwpnGpo txCzEGlyG CEpotnGzEF+ GJz CzFtGtIpwA lFFzntlGpo JtGs
FClx ’, lyo EpxzIp(+ lyo GJz yprlGtIpwA lFFzntlGpo ’poH lyo sC(- jspFp
ClEGtnHwlE opCpyopyntpF lEp Fppy Gz mp pFFpyGtlwwA xzyzGzytn- jspEp tF l
rpypElw lrEppxpyG JtGs Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr qHynGtzyF qzHyo mA Gsp lootGtIp
wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw: Fpp QtrHEp –-% zy Clrp “$“-
hHyytyr l rElotpyG mzzFGpo xzopw zy GspFp olGl JtGs U ˆ = GpExtylw!
yzop GEppF CEzoHnpF l CHEpwA lootGtIp ’xlty pΓpnGF( xzopw qzE Gsp wzr!
zooF+ JtGs l nzEEpFCzyotyr pEEzE ElGp zq ?-fi0+ lF nzxClEpo Gz ?-40 qzE Gsp
qHww rElotpyG mzzFGpo xzopw ’JtGs U ˆ 4 GpExtylw!yzop GEppF(- LwGszHrs
yzG Ftryt¨nlyG+ GstF FwtrsGwA strspE pEEzE ElGp FHrrpFGF GslG GspEp xlA mp
tyGpElnGtzyF lxzyr Fzxp zq Gsp txCzEGlyG CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwpF- jstF nly
mp otlryzFpo GsEzHrs GJz!IlEtlmwp ClEGtlw opCpyopynp CwzGF- QtrHEp %$-]
FszJF zyp zq Gsp FpIpElw FHns CwzGF otFCwlAtyr FGEzyr tyGpElnGtzy pΓpnGF-
Zyp FppF GslG qzE IpEA wzJ qEpDHpyntpF zq sC+ Gsp wzr!zooF zq FClx lEp
rEplGwA tynEplFpo- QzE strs qEpDHpyntpF zq sC+ Gsp wzr!zooF zq FClx Gpyo Gz
mp xHns wzJpE lyo EzHrswA nzyFGlyG lF l qHynGtzy zq ,- LF Gsp qEpDHpynA
zq sC opnEplFpF+ Gsp qHynGtzylw EpwlGtzyFstC JtGs , FGEpyrGspyF-
0.-– MzzFGtyr jEppF

hprEpFFtzy lyo nwlFFt¨nlGtzy GEppF lEp otFnHFFpo ty opGltw ty ipnGtzy –-=-
jspA ClEGtGtzy Gsp FClnp zq lww uztyG CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwp IlwHpF tyGz otFuztyG
EprtzyF hH W u ˆ %W =W , , , W U+ lF EpCEpFpyGpo mA Gsp GpExtylw yzopF zq Gsp GEpp-
L nzyFGlyG γH tF lFFtrypo Gz plns FHns Eprtzy lyo Gsp CEpotnGtIp EHwp tF
K ∈ hH ⇒ q ’K( ˆ γH ,
“4? %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
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CAPAVE
free
remove
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$
!
0 20 40 60 80 100
Relative Importance
QTRIFD 0.W5W fEpotnGzE IlEtlmwp txCzEGlynp FCpnGEHx qzE Gsp FClx olGl- jsp
IlEtlmwp ylxpF lEp JEtGGpy zy Gsp IpEGtnlw lKtF-
%/-– MzzFGtyr jEppF “44
-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Partial Dependence
Partial Dependence
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
! remove
-0.2 0.0 0.2
-0.2 0.0 0.2

Partial Dependence
Partial Dependence
-0.6
-0.6
-1.0
-1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
edu hp
QTRIFD 0.W6W flEGtlw opCpyopynp zq wzr,zooF zq FClx zy qzHE txCzEGlyG CEp,

otnGzEF- jsp Epo GtnvF lG Gsp mlFp zq Gsp CwzGF lEp opntwpF zq Gsp tyCHG IlEtlmwp-
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
!
0.2
1.0 0.5
2.0 1.5
3.0 2.5
hp
QTRIFD 0.W7W flEGtlw opCpyopynp zq Gsp wzr,zooF zq FClx IF- pxltw lF l qHyn,
Gtzy zq uztyG qEpDHpyntpF zq sC lyo Gsp nslElnGpE ,-
“4[ %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
jsHF l GEpp nly mp qzExlwwA pKCEpFFpo lF

U
∑
j ’K: Θ( ˆ γH T’K ∈ hH (W ’%$-=4(
Hˆ0
JtGs ClElxpGpEF Θ ˆ ·hH W γH •U0 - U tF HFHlwwA GEplGpo lF l xpGl!ClElxpGpE-

jsp ClElxpGpEF lEp qzHyo mA xtytxtBtyr Gsp pxCtEtnlw EtFv
U
∑ ∑
— ˆ lEr xty
Θ ’At W γH (, ’%$-=[(
Θ
Hˆ0 Kt ∈hu
jstF tF l qzExtolmwp nzxmtylGzEtlw zCGtxtBlGtzy CEzmwpx+ lyo Jp HFHlwwA

FpGGwp qzE lCCEzKtxlGp FHmzCGtxlw FzwHGtzyF- TG tF HFpqHw Gz otItop Gsp zCGt!
xtBlGtzy CEzmwpx tyGz GJz ClEGF9
Qtyotyr γH rtIpy hH 9 RtIpy Gsp hH + pFGtxlGtyr Gsp γH tF GACtnlwwA GEtItlw+
lyo zqGpy γ—H ˆ A3H + Gsp xply zq Gsp At qlwwtyr ty Eprtzy hH - QzE xtF!
nwlFFt¨nlGtzy wzFF+ γ—H tF Gsp xzolw nwlFF zq Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF qlwwtyr ty
Eprtzy hH -
Qtyotyr hH 9 jstF tF Gsp otffnHwG ClEG+ qzE Jstns lCCEzKtxlGp FzwHGtzyF lEp
qzHyo- YzGp lwFz GslG ÿotyr Gsp hH pyGltwF pFGtxlGtyr Gsp γH lF Jpww-
L GACtnlw FGElGprA tF Gz HFp l rEppoA+ GzC!ozJy EpnHEFtIp ClEGtGtzytyr
lwrzEtGsx Gz ÿo Gsp hH - Ty lootGtzy+ tG tF FzxpGtxpF ypnpFFlEA Gz
lCCEzKtxlGp ’%$-=[( mA l FxzzGspE lyo xzEp nzyIpytpyG nEtGpEtzy qzE
zCGtxtBtyr Gsp hH 9
Y
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2 ˆ lEr xty
Θ 2 ’At W j ’Kt W Θ((, ’%$-=fi(
Θ
tˆ0
jspy rtIpy Gsp h —H ˆ h 2 H + Gsp γH nly mp pFGtxlGpo xzEp CEpntFpwA

HFtyr Gsp zEtrtylw nEtGpEtzy-
Ty ipnGtzy –-= Jp opFnEtmpo FHns l FGElGprA qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy GEppF- jsp Rtyt
tyopK EpCwlnpo xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy wzFF ty Gsp rEzJtyr zq Gsp GEpp ’topyGtqAtyr
Gsp hH (-
jsp mzzFGpo GEpp xzopw tF l FHx zq FHns GEppF+
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tyoHnpo ty l qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp xlyypE ’LwrzEtGsx %$-=(- LG plns FGpC ty

Gsp qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp CEznpoHEp zyp xHFG FzwIp
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qzE Gsp Eprtzy FpG lyo nzyFGlyGF Θx ˆ ·hHx W γHx •U0 K zq Gsp ypKG GEpp+ rtIpy
Gsp nHEEpyG xzopw qx}0 ’K(-
RtIpy Gsp EprtzyF hHx + ÿotyr Gsp zCGtxlw nzyFGlyGF γHx ty plns Eprtzy
tF GACtnlwwA FGEltrsGqzEJlEo9
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γ—Hx ˆ lEr xty ’At W qx}0 ’Kt ( ) γHx ( , ’%$-“$(
γuK
Kt ∈huK
Qtyotyr Gsp EprtzyF tF otffnHwG+ lyo pIpy xzEp otffnHwG Gsly qzE l Ftyrwp
GEpp- QzE l qpJ FCpntlw nlFpF+ Gsp CEzmwpx FtxCwt¨pF-
QzE FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF+ Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz ’%$-=–( tF yz slEopE Gsly qzE l
Ftyrwp GEpp- TG tF FtxCwA Gsp EprEpFFtzy GEpp GslG mpFG CEpotnGF Gsp nHEEpyG
EpFtoHlwF At } qx}0 ’Kt (+ lyo γ—Hx tF Gsp xply zq GspFp EpFtoHlwF ty plns
nzEEpFCzyotyr Eprtzy-
QzE GJz!nwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lyo pKCzypyGtlw wzFF+ GstF FGlrpJtFp lCCEzlns
rtIpF EtFp Gz Gsp LolMzzFG xpGszo qzE mzzFGtyr nwlFFt¨nlGtzy GEppF ’Lwrz!
EtGsx %$-%(- Ty ClEGtnHwlE+ tq Gsp GEppF j ’K: Θx ( lEp EpFGEtnGpo Gz mp Fnlwpo
nwlFFt¨nlGtzy GEppF+ Gspy Jp FszJpo ty ipnGtzy %$-? GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz
(Y Wx(
’%$-=–( tF Gsp GEpp GslG xtytxtBpF Gsp JptrsGpo pEEzE ElGp tˆ0 Jt T’At 0ˆ
Wx(
j ’Kt : Θx (( JtGs JptrsGF Jt ˆ p}At qKT0 WKt ( - MA l Fnlwpo nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
GEpp+ Jp xply βx j ’K: Θx (+ JtGs Gsp EpFGEtnGtzy GslG γHx ∈ ·}%W %•(-
btGszHG GstF EpFGEtnGtzy+ ’%$-=–( FGtww FtxCwt¨pF qzE pKCzypyGtlw wzFF Gz l
JptrsGpo pKCzypyGtlw nEtGpEtzy qzE Gsp ypJ GEpp9
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Θ Jt pKC”}At j ’Kt : Θx (fl, ’%$-“%(
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TG tF FGEltrsGqzEJlEo Gz txCwpxpyG l rEppoA EpnHEFtIp!ClEGtGtzytyr lwrzEtGsx

HFtyr GstF JptrsGpo pKCzypyGtlw wzFF lF l FCwtGGtyr nEtGpEtzy- RtIpy Gsp hHx +
zyp nly FszJ ’PKpEntFp %$-fi( GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz ’%$-“$( tF Gsp JptrsGpo
wzr!zooF ty plns nzEEpFCzyotyr Eprtzy
( Wx(
Kt ∈huK Jt T’At ˆ %(
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jstF EpDHtEpF l FCpntlwtBpo GEpp!rEzJtyr lwrzEtGsx: ty CElnGtnp+ Jp CEpqpE

Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtzy CEpFpyGpo mpwzJ GslG HFpF l JptrsGpo wplFG FDHlEpF Ep!
rEpFFtzy GEpp-
kFtyr wzFF nEtGpEtl FHns lF Gsp lmFzwHGp pEEzE zE Gsp SHmpE wzFF ’%$-=“( ty
Cwlnp zq FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF qzE EprEpFFtzy+ lyo Gsp opItlynp ’%$-==( ty Cwlnp
zq pKCzypyGtlw wzFF qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ Jtww FpEIp Gz EzmHFGtqA mzzFGtyr GEppF-
kyqzEGHylGpwA+ Hywtvp GsptE yzyEzmHFG nzHyGpEClEGF+ GspFp EzmHFG nEtGpEtl
oz yzG rtIp EtFp Gz FtxCwp qlFG mzzFGtyr lwrzEtGsxF-
QzE xzEp rpypElw wzFF nEtGpEtl Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz ’%$-“$(+ rtIpy Gsp hHx +
tF GACtnlwwA FGEltrsGqzEJlEo Ftynp tG tF l FtxCwp ˜wznlGtzy˙ pFGtxlGp- QzE
“4] %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
lmFzwHGp wzFF tG tF uHFG Gsp xpotly zq Gsp EpFtoHlwF ty plns EpFCpnGtIp Eprtzy-
QzE Gsp zGspE nEtGpEtl qlFG tGpElGtIp lwrzEtGsxF pKtFG qzE FzwItyr ’%$-“$(+
lyo HFHlwwA GsptE qlFGpE ˜Ftyrwp!FGpC˙ lCCEzKtxlGtzyF lEp lopDHlGp- jsp
CEzmwpx tF GEpp tyoHnGtzy- itxCwp qlFG lwrzEtGsxF oz yzG pKtFG qzE FzwItyr
’%$-=–( qzE GspFp xzEp rpypElw wzFF nEtGpEtl+ lyo lCCEzKtxlGtzyF wtvp ’%$-=fi(
mpnzxp pFFpyGtlw-
0.-0. dHxpEtnlw ZCGtxtBlGtzy Itl RElotpyG

MzzFGtyr
QlFG lCCEzKtxlGp lwrzEtGsxF qzE FzwItyr ’%$-=–( JtGs lyA otΓpEpyGtlmwp wzFF
nEtGpEtzy nly mp opEtIpo mA lylwzrA Gz yHxpEtnlw zCGtxtBlGtzy- jsp wzFF ty
HFtyr q ’K( Gz CEpotnG A zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl tF
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jsp rzlw tF Gz xtytxtBp ’q ( JtGs EpFCpnG Gz q + JspEp spEp q ’K( tF nzy!

FGEltypo Gz mp l FHx zq GEppF ’%$-=](- TryzEtyr GstF nzyFGEltyG+ xtytxtBtyr
’%$-““( nly mp ItpJpo lF l yHxpEtnlw zCGtxtBlGtzy
—D ˆ lEr xty ’D (W ’%$-“?(
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JspEp Gsp ˜ClElxpGpEF˙ D ∈ ThY lEp Gsp IlwHpF zq Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtyr qHyn!
Gtzy q ’Kt ( lG plns zq Gsp Y olGl CztyGF Kt 9
D ˆ ·q ’K0 (W q ’K= ((W , , , W q ’KY (•,
YHxpEtnlw zCGtxtBlGtzy CEznpoHEpF FzwIp ’%$-“?( lF l FHx zq nzxCzypyG
IpnGzEF
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JspEp D$ ˆ s$ tF ly tytGtlw rHpFF+ lyo plns FHnnpFFtIp Dx tF tyoHnpo mlFpo
zy Gsp nHEEpyG ClElxpGpE IpnGzE Dx}0 + Jstns tF Gsp FHx zq Gsp CEpItzHFwA
tyoHnpo HColGpF- YHxpEtnlw zCGtxtBlGtzy xpGszoF otΓpE ty GsptE CEpFnEtC!
GtzyF qzE nzxCHGtyr plns tynEpxpyG IpnGzE sx ’˜FGpC˙(-
0.-0.-0 iGppCpFG OpFnpyG

iGppCpFG opFnpyG nszzFpF sx ˆ }ρx rx JspEp ρx tF l FnlwlE lyo rx ∈ ThY
tF Gsp rElotpyG zq ’D ( pIlwHlGpo lG D ˆ Dx}0 - jsp nzxCzypyGF zq Gsp
rElotpyG rx lEp
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∂ ’At W q ’Kt ((
rtx ˆ ’%$-“4(
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%/-%/ YHxpEtnlw ZCGtxtBlGtzy Itl RElotpyG MzzFGtyr “4–
jsp FGpC wpyrGs ρx tF Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz
ρx ˆ lEr xty ’Dx}0 } ρrx (, ’%$-“[(

ρ
jsp nHEEpyG FzwHGtzy tF Gspy HColGpo
Dx ˆ Dx}0 } ρx rx
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ItpJpo lF l IpEA rEppoA FGElGprA+ Ftynp }rx tF Gsp wznlw otEpnGtzy ty ThY
qzE Jstns ’D ( tF xzFG ElCtowA opnEplFtyr lG D ˆ Dx}0 -
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QzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp mzzFGtyr ’LwrzEtGsx %$-=( tF lwFz l IpEA rEppoA FGElGprA-
LG plns FGpC Gsp FzwHGtzy GEpp tF Gsp zyp GslG xlKtxlwwA EpoHnpF ’%$-=–(+
rtIpy Gsp nHEEpyG xzopw qx}0 lyo tGF ¨GF qx}0 ’Kt (- jsHF+ Gsp GEpp CEpotn!
GtzyF j ’Kt : Θx ( lEp lylwzrzHF Gz Gsp nzxCzypyGF zq Gsp yprlGtIp rElotpyG
’%$-“4(- jsp CEtyntClw otΓpEpynp mpGJppy Gspx tF GslG Gsp GEpp nzxCz!
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FGEltypo Gz mp Gsp CEpotnGtzyF zq l Ux !GpExtylw yzop opntFtzy GEpp+ JspEplF
Gsp yprlGtIp rElotpyG tF Gsp HynzyFGEltypo xlKtxlw opFnpyG otEpnGtzy-
jsp FzwHGtzy Gz ’%$-“$( ty Gsp FGlrpJtFp lCCEzlns tF lylwzrzHF Gz Gsp wtyp
FplEns ’%$-“[( ty FGppCpFG opFnpyG- jsp otΓpEpynp tF GslG ’%$-“$( CpEqzExF
l FpClElGp wtyp FplEns qzE GszFp nzxCzypyGF zq Gx GslG nzEEpFCzyo Gz plns
FpClElGp GpExtylw Eprtzy ·j ’Kt : Θx (•Kt ∈huK -
Tq xtytxtBtyr wzFF zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl ’%$-““( JpEp Gsp zywA rzlw+ FGppC!
pFG opFnpyG JzHwo mp Gsp CEpqpEEpo FGElGprA- jsp rElotpyG ’%$-“4( tF GEtItlw
Gz nlwnHwlGp qzE lyA otΓpEpyGtlmwp wzFF qHynGtzy ’AW q ’K((+ JspEplF FzwItyr
’%$-=–( tF otffnHwG qzE Gsp EzmHFG nEtGpEtl otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy %$-[- kyqzE!
GHylGpwA Gsp rElotpyG ’%$-“4( tF opÿpo zywA lG Gsp GEltytyr olGl CztyGF Kt +
JspEplF Gsp HwGtxlGp rzlw tF Gz rpypElwtBp qX ’K( Gz ypJ olGl yzG EpCEp!
FpyGpo ty Gsp GEltytyr FpG-
L CzFFtmwp EpFzwHGtzy Gz GstF otwpxxl tF Gz tyoHnp l GEpp j ’K: Θx ( lG Gsp
xGs tGpElGtzy JszFp CEpotnGtzyF Gx lEp lF nwzFp lF CzFFtmwp Gz Gsp yprlGtIp
rElotpyG- kFtyr FDHlEpo pEEzE Gz xplFHEp nwzFpypFF+ GstF wploF HF Gz
Y
∑
2 x ˆ lEr xty =
Θ ’}rtx } j ’Kt : Θ(( , ’%$-“fi(
Θ
tˆ0
jslG tF+ zyp ¨GF Gsp GEpp j Gz Gsp yprlGtIp rElotpyG IlwHpF ’%$-“4( mA wplFG
FDHlEpF- LF yzGpo ty ipnGtzy %$-– qlFG lwrzEtGsxF pKtFG qzE wplFG FDHlEpF
opntFtzy GEpp tyoHnGtzy- LwGszHrs Gsp FzwHGtzy EprtzyF h2 Hx Gz ’%$-“fi( Jtww
yzG mp topyGtnlw Gz Gsp EprtzyF hHx GslG FzwIp ’%$-=–(+ tG tF rpypElwwA Ftx!
twlE pyzHrs Gz FpEIp Gsp Flxp CHECzFp- Ty lyA nlFp+ Gsp qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp
“[/ %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
uLM D 0.W1W RElotpyGF qzE nzxxzywA HFpo wzFF qHynGtzyF-
ipGGtyr zFF QHynGtzy }∂ ’At W q ’Kt ((.∂q ’Kt (

0
hprEpFFtzy = ”At } q ’Kt (fl= At } q ’Kt (
hprEpFFtzy KAt } q ’Kt (K Ftry”At } q ’Kt (fl
hprEpFFtzy SHmpE At } q ’Kt ( qzE KAt } q ’Kt (K ≤ δx
δx Ftry”At } q ’Kt (fl qzE KAt } q ’Kt (K / δx
JspEp δx ˆ αGs!DHlyGtwp·KAt } q ’Kt (K•
NwlFFt¨nlGtzy OpItlynp vGs nzxCzypyG9 T’At ˆ Qv ( } Cv ’Kt (
mzzFGtyr CEznpoHEp+ lyo GzC!ozJy opntFtzy GEpp tyoHnGtzy+ lEp GspxFpwIpF

lCCEzKtxlGtzy CEznpoHEpF- LqGpE nzyFGEHnGtyr Gsp GEpp ’%$-“fi(+ Gsp nzEEp!
FCzyotyr nzyFGlyGF ty plns Eprtzy lEp rtIpy mA ’%$-“$(-
jlmwp %$-= FHxxlEtBpF Gsp rElotpyGF qzE nzxxzywA HFpo wzFF qHynGtzyF-
QzE FDHlEpo pEEzE wzFF+ Gsp yprlGtIp rElotpyG tF uHFG Gsp zEotylEA EpFtoHlw
}rtx ˆ At } qx}0 ’Kt (+ Fz GslG ’%$-“fi( zy tGF zJy tF pDHtIlwpyG FGlyolEo
wplFG FDHlEpF mzzFGtyr- btGs lmFzwHGp pEEzE wzFF+ Gsp yprlGtIp rElotpyG tF
Gsp Ftry zq Gsp EpFtoHlw+ Fz lG plns tGpElGtzy ’%$-“fi( ¨GF Gsp GEpp Gz Gsp
Ftry zq Gsp nHEEpyG EpFtoHlwF mA wplFG FDHlEpF- QzE SHmpE X!EprEpFFtzy+ Gsp
yprlGtIp rElotpyG tF l nzxCEzxtFp mpGJppy GspFp GJz ’Fpp Gsp Glmwp(-
QzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy Gsp wzFF qHynGtzy tF Gsp xHwGtyzxtlw opItlynp ’%$-==(+
lyo V wplFG FDHlEpF GEppF lEp nzyFGEHnGpo lG plns tGpElGtzy- Plns GEpp jvx
tF ¨G Gz tGF EpFCpnGtIp yprlGtIp rElotpyG IpnGzE rvx +
∂ ’At W q0x ’Kt (W , , , W q0x ’Kt ((
}rtvx ˆ
∂qvx ’Kt (
ˆ T’At ˆ Qv ( } Cv ’Kt (W ’%$-“](
JtGs Cv ’K( rtIpy mA ’%$-=%(- LwGszHrs V FpClElGp GEppF lEp mHtwG lG plns
tGpElGtzy+ GspA lEp EpwlGpo GsEzHrs ’%$-=%(- QzE mtylEA nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ’V ˆ
=(+ zywA zyp GEpp tF yppopo ’pKpEntFp %$-%$(-
0.-0.-“ TxCwpxpyGlGtzyF zq RElotpyG MzzFGtyr

LwrzEtGsx %$-“ CEpFpyGF Gsp rpypEtn rElotpyG GEpp!mzzFGtyr lwrzEtGsx qzE
EprEpFFtzy- iCpnt¨n lwrzEtGsxF lEp zmGltypo mA tyFpEGtyr otΓpEpyG wzFF nEt!
GpEtl ’AW q ’K((- jsp ËFG wtyp zq Gsp lwrzEtGsx tytGtlwtBpF Gz Gsp zCGtxlw
nzyFGlyG xzopw+ Jstns tF uHFG l Ftyrwp GpExtylw yzop GEpp- jsp nzxCzypyGF
zq Gsp yprlGtIp rElotpyG nzxCHGpo lG wtyp =’l( lEp EpqpEEpo Gz lF rpypElw!
tBpo zE CFpHoz EpFtoHlwF+ E- RElotpyGF qzE nzxxzywA HFpo wzFF qHynGtzyF lEp
FHxxlEtBpo ty jlmwp %$-=-
%/-%% htrsG,itBpo jEppF qzE MzzFGtyr “[%
LwrzEtGsx 0.-2 RElotpyG jEpp MzzFGtyr LwrzEtGsx-

(Y
%- TytGtlwtBp q$ ’K( ˆ lEr xtyγ tˆ0 ’At W γ(-
’l( QzE t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y nzxCHGp
[ ]
∂ ’At W q ’Kt ((
Etx ˆ } ,
∂q ’Kt ( q ˆqKT0
’m( QtG l EprEpFFtzy GEpp Gz Gsp GlErpGF Etx rtItyr GpExtylw EprtzyF
hHx W u ˆ %W =W , , , W Ux ,
’n( QzE u ˆ %W =W , , , W Ux nzxCHGp
∑
γHx ˆ lEr xty ’At W qx}0 ’Kt ( ) γ( ,
γ
Kt ∈huK
(UK
’o( kColGp qx ’K( ˆ qx}0 ’K( ) Hˆ0 γHx T’K ∈ hHx (-
“- ZHGCHG q—’K( ˆ qX ’K(-
jsp lwrzEtGsx qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy tF FtxtwlE- typF =’l(8’o( lEp EpCplGpo

V GtxpF lG plns tGpElGtzy x+ zynp qzE plns nwlFF HFtyr ’%$-“](- jsp EpFHwG
lG wtyp “ tF V otΓpEpyG ’nzHCwpo( GEpp pKClyFtzyF qvX ’K(W v ˆ %W =W , , , W V-
jspFp CEzoHnp CEzmlmtwtGtpF Itl ’%$-=%( zE oz nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lF ty ’%$-=$(-
OpGltwF lEp rtIpy ty PKpEntFp %$-–- jJz mlFtn GHytyr ClElxpGpEF lEp Gsp
yHxmpE zq tGpElGtzyF X lyo Gsp FtBpF zq plns zq Gsp nzyFGtGHpyG GEppF
Ux W x ˆ %W =W , , , W X -
jsp zEtrtylw txCwpxpyGlGtzy zq GstF lwrzEtGsx JlF nlwwpo XLhj qzE
˜xHwGtCwp lootGtIp EprEpFFtzy GEppF+˙ lyo JlF EpqpEEpo Gz ty Gsp ËFG pot!
Gtzy zq GstF mzzv- XlyA zq Gsp ¨rHEpF ty GstF nslCGpE JpEp CEzoHnpo mA
XLhj- RElotpyG mzzFGtyr lF opFnEtmpo spEp tF txCwpxpyGpo ty Gsp h rmK
Clnvlrp ’htorpJlA+ %–––+ ˜RElotpyG MzzFGpo XzopwF˙(+ lyo tF qEppwA lIltw!
lmwp- jsp rmK Clnvlrp tF HFpo ty ipnGtzy %$-%?-=+ lyo pKGpyFtIpwA ty NslC!
GpEF %[ lyo %4- LyzGspE h txCwpxpyGlGtzy zq mzzFGtyr tF KmzzFR ’SzGszEy
lyo M6 Hswxlyy+ =$$[(- L nzxxpEntlw txCwpxpyGlGtzy zq rElotpyG mzzFG!
tyr#XLhj nlwwpo jEppdpG tF lIltwlmwp qEzx ilwqzEo iAFGpxF+ Tyn-
0.-00 htrsG,itBpo jEppF qzE MzzFGtyr

StFGzEtnlwwA+ mzzFGtyr JlF nzyFtopEpo Gz mp l GpnsytDHp qzE nzxmtytyr xzo!
pwF+ spEp GEppF- LF FHns+ Gsp GEpp mHtwotyr lwrzEtGsx JlF EprlEopo lF l
“[= %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
CEtxtGtIp GslG CEzoHnpo xzopwF Gz mp nzxmtypo mA Gsp mzzFGtyr CEznp!

oHEp- Ty GstF FnpylEtz+ Gsp zCGtxlw FtBp zq plns GEpp tF pFGtxlGpo FpClElGpwA
ty Gsp HFHlw xlyypE Jspy tG tF mHtwG ’ipnGtzy –-=(- L IpEA wlErp ’zIpEFtBpo(
GEpp tF ËFG tyoHnpo+ lyo Gspy l mzGGzx!HC CEznpoHEp tF pxCwzApo Gz CEHyp
tG Gz Gsp pFGtxlGpo zCGtxlw yHxmpE zq GpExtylw yzopF- jstF lCCEzlns lF!
FHxpF txCwtntGwA GslG plns GEpp tF Gsp wlFG zyp ty Gsp pKClyFtzy ’%$-=](-
PKnpCG CpEslCF qzE Gsp IpEA wlFG GEpp+ GstF tF nwplEwA l IpEA CzzE lFFHxC!
Gtzy- jsp EpFHwG tF GslG GEppF Gpyo Gz mp xHns Gzz wlErp+ pFCpntlwwA oHEtyr
Gsp plEwA tGpElGtzyF- jstF FHmFGlyGtlwwA oprElopF CpEqzExlynp lyo tynEplFpF
nzxCHGlGtzy-
jsp FtxCwpFG FGElGprA qzE lIztotyr GstF CEzmwpx tF Gz EpFGEtnG lww GEppF
Gz mp Gsp Flxp FtBp+ Ux ˆ U {x- LG plns tGpElGtzy l U!GpExtylw yzop
EprEpFFtzy GEpp tF tyoHnpo- jsHF U mpnzxpF l xpGl!ClElxpGpE zq Gsp pyGtEp
mzzFGtyr CEznpoHEp+ Gz mp louHFGpo Gz xlKtxtBp pFGtxlGpo CpEqzExlynp qzE
Gsp olGl lG slyo-
Zyp nly rpG ly topl zq HFpqHw IlwHpF qzE U mA nzyFtopEtyr Gsp CEzCpEGtpF
zq Gsp ˜GlErpG˙ qHynGtzy
η ˆ lEr xty Pcd ’dW q ’c((, ’%$-“–(
q
SpEp Gsp pKCpnGpo IlwHp tF zIpE Gsp CzCHwlGtzy uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy zq ’cW d (-
jsp GlErpG qHynGtzy η’K( tF Gsp zyp JtGs xtytxHx CEpotnGtzy EtFv zy qHGHEp
olGl- jstF tF Gsp qHynGtzy Jp lEp GEAtyr Gz lCCEzKtxlGp-
Zyp EpwpIlyG CEzCpEGA zq η’c( tF Gsp oprEpp Gz Jstns Gsp nzzEotylGp IlEt!
lmwpF c j ˆ ’c0 W c= W , , , W cC ( tyGpElnG JtGs zyp lyzGspE- jstF tF nlCGHEpo
mA tGF LYZaL ’lylwAFtF zq IlEtlynp( pKClyFtzy
∑ ∑ ∑
η’c( ˆ ηH ’cH ( ) ηHv ’cH W cv ( ) ηHvw ’cH W cv W cw ( ) ± ± ± , ’%$-?$(
H Hv Hvw
jsp ËFG FHx ty ’%$-?$( tF zIpE qHynGtzyF zq zywA l Ftyrwp CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwp
cH - jsp ClEGtnHwlE qHynGtzyF ηH ’cH ( lEp GszFp GslG uztyGwA mpFG lCCEzKtxlGp
η’c( HyopE Gsp wzFF nEtGpEtzy mptyr HFpo- Plns FHns ηH ’cH ( tF nlwwpo Gsp
˜xlty pΓpnG˙ zq cH - jsp Fpnzyo FHx tF zIpE GszFp GJz!IlEtlmwp qHynGtzyF
GslG Jspy loopo Gz Gsp xlty pΓpnGF mpFG ¨G η’c(- jspFp lEp nlwwpo Gsp
Fpnzyo!zEopE tyGpElnGtzyF zq plns EpFCpnGtIp IlEtlmwp CltE ’cH W cv (- jsp
GstEo FHx EpCEpFpyGF GstEo!zEopE tyGpElnGtzyF+ lyo Fz zy- QzE xlyA CEzmwpxF
pynzHyGpEpo ty CElnGtnp+ wzJ!zEopE tyGpElnGtzy pΓpnGF Gpyo Gz ozxtylGp-
bspy GstF tF Gsp nlFp+ xzopwF GslG CEzoHnp FGEzyr strspE!zEopE tyGpElnGtzy
pΓpnGF+ FHns lF wlErp opntFtzy GEppF+ FHΓpE ty lnnHElnA-
jsp tyGpElnGtzy wpIpw zq GEpp!mlFpo lCCEzKtxlGtzyF tF wtxtGpo mA Gsp GEpp
FtBp U- YlxpwA+ yz tyGpElnGtzy pΓpnGF zq wpIpw rEplGpE GslG U } % lEp CzF!
Ftmwp- itynp mzzFGpo xzopwF lEp lootGtIp ty Gsp GEppF ’%$-=](+ GstF wtxtG
pKGpyoF Gz Gspx lF Jpww- ipGGtyr U ˆ = ’Ftyrwp FCwtG õpntFtzy FGHxC˙(
CEzoHnpF mzzFGpo xzopwF JtGs zywA xlty pΓpnGF: yz tyGpElnGtzyF lEp CpE!
xtGGpo- btGs U ˆ “+ GJz!IlEtlmwp tyGpElnGtzy pΓpnGF lEp lwFz lwwzJpo+ lyo
%/-%% htrsG,itBpo jEppF qzE MzzFGtyr “[“
Stumps
0.4
10 Node
100 Node
Adaboost
0.3
Test Error
0.2
0.1
0.0
0 100 200 300 400

Number of Terms
QTRIFD 0.W8W MzzFGtyr JtGs ot;pEpyG FtBpo GEppF+ lCCwtpo Gz Gsp pKlxCwp ’%/-=(
HFpo ty QtrHEp %/-=- itynp Gsp rpypElGtIp xzopw tF lootGtIp+ FGHxCF CpEqzEx Gsp
mpFG- jsp mzzFGtyr lwrzEtGsx HFpo Gsp mtyzxtlw opItlynp wzFF ty LwrzEtGsx %/-“‘
FszJy qzE nzxClEtFzy tF Gsp LolMzzFG LwrzEtGsx %/-%-
Fz zy- jstF FHrrpFGF GslG Gsp IlwHp nszFpy qzE U FszHwo Ep7pnG Gsp wpIpw
zq ozxtylyG tyGpElnGtzyF zq η’K(- jstF tF zq nzHEFp rpypElwwA HyvyzJy+ mHG
ty xzFG FtGHlGtzyF tG Jtww Gpyo Gz mp wzJ- QtrHEp %$-– twwHFGElGpF Gsp pΓpnG
zq tyGpElnGtzy zEopE ’nsztnp zq U( zy Gsp FtxHwlGtzy pKlxCwp ’%$-=(- jsp
rpypElGtIp qHynGtzy tF lootGtIp ’FHx zq DHloElGtn xzyzxtlwF(+ Fz mzzFGtyr
xzopwF JtGs U / = tynHEF HyypnpFFlEA IlEtlynp lyo spynp Gsp strspE GpFG
pEEzE- QtrHEp %$-%$ nzxClEpF Gsp nzzEotylGp qHynGtzyF qzHyo mA mzzFGpo
FGHxCF JtGs Gsp GEHp qHynGtzyF-
LwGszHrs ty xlyA lCCwtnlGtzyF U ˆ = Jtww mp tyFHffntpyG+ tG tF HywtvpwA
GslG U / %$ Jtww mp EpDHtEpo- PKCpEtpynp Fz qlE tyotnlGpF GslG ? ≤ U ≤ ]
JzEvF Jpww ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq mzzFGtyr+ JtGs EpFHwGF mptyr qltEwA tyFpyFtGtIp
Gz ClEGtnHwlE nsztnpF ty GstF Elyrp- Zyp nly ÿp!GHyp Gsp IlwHp qzE U mA
GEAtyr FpIpElw otΓpEpyG IlwHpF lyo nszzFtyr Gsp zyp GslG CEzoHnpF Gsp wzJ!
pFG EtFv zy l IlwtolGtzy FlxCwp- SzJpIpE+ GstF Fpwozx CEzItopF Ftryt¨nlyG
txCEzIpxpyG zIpE HFtyr U ≃ [-
“[? %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
Coordinate Functions for Additive Logistic Trees
q0 ’K0 ( q= ’K= ( q2 ’K2 ( q3 ’K3 ( q4 ’K4 (
q5 ’K5 ( q6 ’K6 ( q7 ’K7 ( q8 ’K8 ( q0+ ’K0+ (
QTRIFD 0.W0.W NzzEotylGp qHynGtzyF pFGtxlGpo mA mzzFGtyr FGHxCF qzE Gsp Ftx,
HwlGpo pKlxCwp HFpo ty QtrHEp %/-–- jsp GEHp DHloElGtn qHynGtzyF lEp FszJy qzE
nzxClEtFzy-
0.-01 hprHwlEtBlGtzy
MpFtopF Gsp FtBp zq Gsp nzyFGtGHpyG GEppF+ U+ Gsp zGspE xpGl!ClElxpGpE zq
rElotpyG mzzFGtyr tF Gsp yHxmpE zq mzzFGtyr tGpElGtzyF X - Plns tGpElGtzy
HFHlwwA EpoHnpF Gsp GEltytyr EtFv ’qX (+ Fz GslG qzE X wlErp pyzHrs GstF EtFv
nly mp xlop lEmtGElEtwA Fxlww- SzJpIpE+ ¨GGtyr Gsp GEltytyr olGl Gzz Jpww
nly wplo Gz zIpE¨GGtyr+ Jstns oprElopF Gsp EtFv zy qHGHEp CEpotnGtzyF- jsHF+
GspEp tF ly zCGtxlw yHxmpE X { xtytxtBtyr qHGHEp EtFv GslG tF lCCwtnlGtzy
opCpyopyG- L nzyIpytpyG JlA Gz pFGtxlGp X { tF Gz xzytGzE CEpotnGtzy EtFv
lF l qHynGtzy zq X zy l IlwtolGtzy FlxCwp- jsp IlwHp zq X GslG xtytxtBpF
GstF EtFv tF Glvpy Gz mp ly pFGtxlGp zq X { - jstF tF lylwzrzHF Gz Gsp plEwA
FGzCCtyr FGElGprA zqGpy HFpo JtGs ypHElw ypGJzEvF ’ipnGtzy %%-?(-
0.-01-0 isEtyvlrp
NzyGEzwwtyr Gsp IlwHp zq X tF yzG Gsp zywA CzFFtmwp EprHwlEtBlGtzy FGElGprA-
LF JtGs Etorp EprEpFFtzy lyo ypHElw ypGJzEvF+ FsEtyvlrp GpnsytDHpF nly mp
pxCwzApo lF Jpww ’Fpp ipnGtzyF “-?-% lyo %%-4(- jsp FtxCwpFG txCwpxpyGlGtzy
zq FsEtyvlrp ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq mzzFGtyr tF Gz Fnlwp Gsp nzyGEtmHGtzy zq plns
GEpp mA l qlnGzE $ ı ν ı % Jspy tG tF loopo Gz Gsp nHEEpyG lCCEzKtxlGtzy-
jslG tF+ wtyp =’o( zq LwrzEtGsx %$-“ tF EpCwlnpo mA
U
∑
qx ’K( ˆ qx}0 ’K( ) ν ± γHx T’K ∈ hHx (, ’%$-?%(
Hˆ0
jsp ClElxpGpE ν nly mp EprlEopo lF nzyGEzwwtyr Gsp wplEytyr ElGp zq Gsp

mzzFGtyr CEznpoHEp- ixlwwpE IlwHpF zq ν ’xzEp FsEtyvlrp( EpFHwG ty wlErpE
GEltytyr EtFv qzE Gsp Flxp yHxmpE zq tGpElGtzyF X - jsHF+ mzGs ν lyo X
nzyGEzw CEpotnGtzy EtFv zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl- SzJpIpE+ GspFp ClElxpGpEF oz
%/-%= hprHwlEtBlGtzy “[4
yzG zCpElGp tyopCpyopyGwA- ixlwwpE IlwHpF zq ν wplo Gz wlErpE IlwHpF zq X

qzE Gsp Flxp GEltytyr EtFv+ Fz GslG GspEp tF l GElopzΓ mpGJppy Gspx-
PxCtEtnlwwA tG slF mppy qzHyo ’QEtpoxly+ =$$%( GslG FxlwwpE IlwHpF zq ν
qlIzE mpGGpE GpFG pEEzE+ lyo EpDHtEp nzEEpFCzyotyrwA wlErpE IlwHpF zq X - Ty
qlnG+ Gsp mpFG FGElGprA lCCplEF Gz mp Gz FpG ν Gz mp IpEA Fxlww ’ν ı $,%(
lyo Gspy nszzFp X mA plEwA FGzCCtyr- jstF AtpwoF oElxlGtn txCEzIpxpyGF
’zIpE yz FsEtyvlrp ν ˆ %( qzE EprEpFFtzy lyo qzE CEzmlmtwtGA pFGtxlGtzy- jsp
nzEEpFCzyotyr txCEzIpxpyGF ty xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy EtFv Itl ’%$-=$( lEp wpFF+
mHG FGtww FHmFGlyGtlw- jsp CEtnp Clto qzE GspFp txCEzIpxpyGF tF nzxCHGl!
Gtzylw9 FxlwwpE IlwHpF zq ν rtIp EtFp Gz wlErpE IlwHpF zq X + lyo nzxCHGlGtzy
tF CEzCzEGtzylw Gz Gsp wlGGpE- SzJpIpE+ lF Fppy mpwzJ+ xlyA tGpElGtzyF lEp
rpypElwwA nzxCHGlGtzylwwA qplFtmwp pIpy zy IpEA wlErp olGl FpGF- jstF tF
ClEGwA oHp Gz Gsp qlnG GslG Fxlww GEppF lEp tyoHnpo lG plns FGpC JtGs yz
CEHytyr-
QtrHEp %$-%% FszJF GpFG pEEzE nHEIpF qzE Gsp FtxHwlGpo pKlxCwp ’%$-=( zq
QtrHEp %$-=- L rElotpyG mzzFGpo xzopw ’XLhj( JlF GEltypo HFtyr mtyzxtlw
opItlynp+ HFtyr ptGspE FGHxCF zE FtK GpExtylw!yzop GEppF+ lyo JtGs zE JtGs!
zHG FsEtyvlrp- jsp mpyp¨GF zq FsEtyvlrp lEp pItopyG+ pFCpntlwwA Jspy Gsp
mtyzxtlw opItlynp tF GElnvpo- btGs FsEtyvlrp+ plns GpFG pEEzE nHEIp EplnspF
l wzJpE IlwHp+ lyo FGlAF GspEp qzE xlyA tGpElGtzyF-
ipnGtzy %[-=-% oElJF l nzyypnGtzy mpGJppy qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp FsEtyvlrp
ty mzzFGtyr lyo Gsp HFp zq ly 0 CpylwGA qzE EprHwlEtBtyr xzopw ClElxp!
GpEF ’Gsp ˜wlFFz˙(- bp lErHp GslG 0 CpylwGtpF xlA mp FHCpEtzE Gz Gsp =
CpylwGtpF HFpo mA xpGszoF FHns lF Gsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE xlnstyp-
0.-01-1 iHmFlxCwtyr
bp FlJ ty ipnGtzy ]-fi GslG mzzGFGElC lIpElrtyr ’mlrrtyr( txCEzIpF Gsp
CpEqzExlynp zq l yztFA nwlFFt¨pE GsEzHrs lIpElrtyr- NslCGpE %4 otFnHFFpF
ty Fzxp opGltw Gsp IlEtlynp!EpoHnGtzy xpnslytFx zq GstF FlxCwtyr qzwwzJpo
mA lIpElrtyr- bp nly pKCwztG Gsp Flxp opItnp ty rElotpyG mzzFGtyr+ mzGs
Gz txCEzIp CpEqzExlynp lyo nzxCHGlGtzylw pffntpynA-
btGs FGznslFGtn rElotpyG mzzFGtyr ’QEtpoxly+ %–––(+ lG plns tGpElGtzy Jp
FlxCwp l qElnGtzy η zq Gsp GEltytyr zmFpEIlGtzyF ’JtGszHG EpCwlnpxpyG(+
lyo rEzJ Gsp ypKG GEpp HFtyr GslG FHmFlxCwp- jsp EpFG zq Gsp lwrzEtGsx tF
topyGtnlw- L GACtnlw IlwHp qzE η nly mp =0 + lwGszHrs qzE wlErp Y + η nly mp
FHmFGlyGtlwwA FxlwwpE Gsly 0= -
YzG zywA ozpF Gsp FlxCwtyr EpoHnp Gsp nzxCHGtyr Gtxp mA Gsp Flxp
qElnGtzy η+ mHG ty xlyA nlFpF tG lnGHlwwA CEzoHnpF l xzEp lnnHElGp xzopw-
QtrHEp %$-%= twwHFGElGpF Gsp pΓpnG zq FHmFlxCwtyr HFtyr Gsp FtxHwlGpo
pKlxCwp ’%$-=(+ mzGs lF l nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lyo lF l EprEpFFtzy pKlxCwp- bp
Fpp ty mzGs nlFpF GslG FlxCwtyr lwzyr JtGs FsEtyvlrp FwtrsGwA zHGCpEqzExpo
Gsp EpFG- TG lCCplEF spEp GslG FHmFlxCwtyr JtGszHG FsEtyvlrp ozpF CzzEwA-
“[[ %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
Stumps Stumps
2.0 Deviance Misclassification Error
0.5
No shrinkage No shrinkage
Shrinkage=0.2 Shrinkage=0.2
Test Set Misclassification Error
0.4
1.5
Test Set Deviance
0.3
1.0
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
Boosting Iterations Boosting Iterations
6-Node Trees 6-Node Trees

Deviance Misclassification Error
2.0
0.5
No shrinkage No shrinkage
Shrinkage=0.6 Shrinkage=0.6
Test Set Misclassification Error
0.4
1.5
Test Set Deviance
0.3
1.0
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
QTRIFD 0.W00W jpFG pEEzE nHEIpF qzE FtxHwlGpo pKlxCwp ’%/-=( zq QtrHEp %/-–+
HFtyr rElotpyG mzzFGtyr ’cLhj(- jsp xzopwF JpEp GEltypo HFtyr mtyzxtlw op,
Itlynp+ ptGspE FGHxCF zE FtK GpExtylw,yzop GEppF+ lyo JtGs zE JtGszHG FsEtyvlrp-
jsp wpqG ClypwF EpCzEG GpFG opItlynp+ Jstwp Gsp EtrsG ClypwF FszJ xtFnwlFFt6nlGtzy
pEEzE- jsp mpyp6ntlw p;pnG zq FsEtyvlrp nly mp Fppy ty lww nlFpF+ pFCpntlwwA qzE
opItlynp ty Gsp wpqG ClypwF-
%/-%“ TyGpECEpGlGtzy “[fi
4−Node Trees
Deviance Absolute Error
0.50
1.4
0.45
1.2
Test Set Absolute Error

Test Set Deviance
0.40
1.0
No shrinkage
Shrink=0.1
Sample=0.5
0.8
Shrink=0.1 Sample=0.5
0.35
0.6
0.30
0.4
0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000
QTRIFD 0.W01W jpFG,pEEzE nHEIpF qzE Gsp FtxHwlGpo pKlxCwp ’%/-=(+ FszJtyr
Gsp p;pnG zq FGznslFGtntGA- QzE Gsp nHEIpF wlmpwpo 2ilxCwpˆ /,45+ l ot;pEpyG 4/0
FHmFlxCwp zq Gsp GEltytyr olGl JlF HFpo plns Gtxp l GEpp JlF rEzJy- Ty Gsp wpqG
Clypw Gsp xzopwF JpEp 6G mA rmx HFtyr l mtyzxtlw opItlynp wzFF qHynGtzy‘ ty Gsp
EtrsG,slyo Clypw HFtyr FDHlEp,pEEzE wzFF-
jsp ozJyFtop tF GslG Jp yzJ slIp qzHE ClElxpGpEF Gz FpG9 U+ X + ν lyo

η- jACtnlwwA Fzxp plEwA pKCwzElGtzyF opGpExtyp FHtGlmwp IlwHpF qzE U+ ν lyo
η+ wplItyr X lF Gsp CEtxlEA ClElxpGpE-
0.-0“ TyGpECEpGlGtzy
ityrwp opntFtzy GEppF lEp strswA tyGpECEpGlmwp- jsp pyGtEp xzopw nly mp nzx!
CwpGpwA EpCEpFpyGpo mA l FtxCwp GJz!otxpyFtzylw rElCstn ’mtylEA GEpp( GslG
tF plFtwA ItFHlwtBpo- typlE nzxmtylGtzyF zq GEppF ’%$-=]( wzFp GstF txCzEGlyG
qplGHEp+ lyo xHFG GspEpqzEp mp tyGpECEpGpo ty l otΓpEpyG JlA-
0.-0“-0 hpwlGtIp TxCzEGlynp zq fEpotnGzE alEtlmwpF

Ty olGl xtytyr lCCwtnlGtzyF Gsp tyCHG CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwpF lEp Fpwozx pDHlwwA
EpwpIlyG- ZqGpy zywA l qpJ zq Gspx slIp FHmFGlyGtlw ty7Hpynp zy Gsp Ep!
FCzyFp: Gsp IlFG xluzEtGA lEp tEEpwpIlyG lyo nzHwo uHFG lF Jpww slIp yzG
mppy tynwHopo- TG tF zqGpy HFpqHw Gz wplEy Gsp EpwlGtIp txCzEGlynp zE nzyGEt!
mHGtzy zq plns tyCHG IlEtlmwp ty CEpotnGtyr Gsp EpFCzyFp-
“[] %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
QzE l Ftyrwp opntFtzy GEpp j + MEptxly pG lw- ’%–]?( CEzCzFpo

U}0
∑
Tℓ= ’j ( ˆ —>=G T’I’G( ˆ ℓ( ’%$-?=(
Gˆ0
lF l xplFHEp zq EpwpIlynp qzE plns CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwp cℓ - jsp FHx tF zIpE

Gsp U } % tyGpEylw yzopF zq Gsp GEpp- LG plns FHns yzop G+ zyp zq Gsp tyCHG
IlEtlmwpF cIWG( tF HFpo Gz ClEGtGtzy Gsp Eprtzy lFFzntlGpo JtGs GslG yzop tyGz
GJz FHmEprtzyF: JtGsty plns l FpClElGp nzyFGlyG tF ¨G Gz Gsp EpFCzyFp IlwHpF-
jsp ClEGtnHwlE IlEtlmwp nszFpy tF Gsp zyp GslG rtIpF xlKtxlw pFGtxlGpo
txCEzIpxpyG —>=G ty FDHlEpo pEEzE EtFv zIpE GslG qzE l nzyFGlyG ¨G zIpE Gsp
pyGtEp Eprtzy- jsp FDHlEpo EpwlGtIp txCzEGlynp zq IlEtlmwp cℓ tF Gsp FHx zq
FHns FDHlEpo txCEzIpxpyGF zIpE lww tyGpEylw yzopF qzE Jstns tG JlF nszFpy
lF Gsp FCwtGGtyr IlEtlmwp-
jstF txCzEGlynp xplFHEp tF plFtwA rpypElwtBpo Gz lootGtIp GEpp pKClyFtzyF
’%$-=](: tG tF FtxCwA lIpElrpo zIpE Gsp GEppF
X
% ∑ =
Tℓ= ˆ T ’jx (, ’%$-?“(
X xˆ0 ℓ
OHp Gz Gsp FGlmtwtBtyr pΓpnG zq lIpElrtyr+ GstF xplFHEp GHEyF zHG Gz mp xzEp
Epwtlmwp Gsly tF tGF nzHyGpEClEG ’%$-?=( qzE l Ftyrwp GEpp- LwFz+ mpnlHFp zq
FsEtyvlrp ’ipnGtzy %$-%=-%( Gsp xlFvtyr zq txCzEGlyG IlEtlmwpF mA zGspEF
JtGs Jstns GspA lEp strswA nzEEpwlGpo tF xHns wpFF zq l CEzmwpx- YzGp
GslG ’%$-?=( lyo ’%$-?“( EpqpE Gz FDHlEpo EpwpIlynp: Gsp lnGHlw EpwpIlynpF
lEp GsptE EpFCpnGtIp FDHlEp EzzGF- itynp GspFp xplFHEpF lEp EpwlGtIp+ tG tF
nHFGzxlEA Gz lFFtry Gsp wlErpFG l IlwHp zq %$$ lyo Gspy Fnlwp Gsp zGspEF
lnnzEotyrwA- QtrHEp %$-[ FszJF Gsp EpwpIlyG txCzEGlynp zq Gsp 4fi tyCHGF ty
CEpotnGtyr FClx IpEFHF pxltw-
QzE V!nwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ V FpClElGp xzopwF qv ’K(W v ˆ %W =W , , , W V lEp
tyoHnpo+ plns nzyFtFGtyr zq l FHx zq GEppF
X
∑
qv ’K( ˆ jvx ’K(, ’%$-??(
xˆ0
Ty GstF nlFp ’%$-?“( rpypElwtBpF Gz

X
= % ∑ =
Tℓv ˆ T ’jvx (, ’%$-?4(
X xˆ0 ℓ
SpEp Tℓv tF Gsp EpwpIlynp zq cℓ ty FpClElGtyr Gsp nwlFF v zmFpEIlGtzyF qEzx

Gsp zGspE nwlFFpF- jsp zIpElww EpwpIlynp zq cℓ tF zmGltypo mA lIpElrtyr zIpE
lww zq Gsp nwlFFpF
V
% ∑ =
Tℓ= ˆ Tℓv , ’%$-?[(
V
vˆ0
%/-%“ TyGpECEpGlGtzy “[–
QtrHEpF %$-=“ lyo %$-=? twwHFGElGp Gsp HFp zq GspFp lIpElrpo lyo FpClElGp
EpwlGtIp txCzEGlynpF-
0.-0“-1 flEGtlw OpCpyopynp fwzGF

LqGpE Gsp xzFG EpwpIlyG IlEtlmwpF slIp mppy topyGt¨po+ Gsp ypKG FGpC tF Gz
lGGpxCG Gz HyopEFGlyo Gsp ylGHEp zq Gsp opCpyopynp zq Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtzy
q ’c( zy GsptE uztyG IlwHpF- RElCstnlw EpyopEtyrF zq Gsp q ’c( lF l qHynGtzy
zq tGF lErHxpyGF CEzItopF l nzxCEpspyFtIp FHxxlEA zq tGF opCpyopynp zy
Gsp uztyG IlwHpF zq Gsp tyCHG IlEtlmwpF-
kyqzEGHylGpwA+ FHns ItFHlwtBlGtzy tF wtxtGpo Gz wzJ!otxpyFtzylw ItpJF-
bp nly plFtwA otFCwlA qHynGtzyF zq zyp zE GJz lErHxpyGF+ ptGspE nzyGtyHzHF
zE otFnEpGp ’zE xtKpo(+ ty l IlEtpGA zq otΓpEpyG JlAF: GstF mzzv tF ¨wwpo
JtGs FHns otFCwlAF- QHynGtzyF zq FwtrsGwA strspE otxpyFtzyF nly mp CwzGGpo
mA nzyotGtzytyr zy ClEGtnHwlE FpGF zq IlwHpF zq lww mHG zyp zE GJz zq Gsp
lErHxpyGF+ CEzoHntyr l GEpwwtF zq CwzGF ’MpnvpE pG lw-+ %––[(-0
QzE xzEp Gsly GJz zE GsEpp IlEtlmwpF+ ItpJtyr qHynGtzyF zq Gsp nzEEp!
FCzyotyr strspE!otxpyFtzylw lErHxpyGF tF xzEp otffnHwG- L HFpqHw lwGpEyl!
GtIp nly FzxpGtxpF mp Gz ItpJ l nzwwpnGtzy zq CwzGF+ plns zyp zq Jstns FszJF
Gsp ClEGtlw opCpyopynp zq Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtzy q ’c( zy l FpwpnGpo Fxlww FHm!
FpG zq Gsp tyCHG IlEtlmwpF- LwGszHrs FHns l nzwwpnGtzy nly Fpwozx CEzItop l
nzxCEpspyFtIp opCtnGtzy zq Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtzy+ tG nly zqGpy CEzoHnp spwCqHw
nwHpF+ pFCpntlwwA Jspy q ’K( tF ozxtylGpo mA wzJ!zEopE tyGpElnGtzyF ’%$-?$(-
NzyFtopE Gsp FHmIpnGzE cG zq ℓ ı C zq Gsp tyCHG CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwpF c j ˆ
’c0 W c= W , , , W cC (+ tyopKpo mA G ⊂ ·%W =W , , , W C•- pG N mp Gsp nzxCwpxpyG
FpG+ JtGs G ∪ N ˆ ·%W =W , , , W C•- L rpypElw qHynGtzy q ’c( Jtww ty CEtyntCwp
opCpyo zy lww zq Gsp tyCHG IlEtlmwpF9 q ’c( ˆ q ’cG W cN (- Zyp JlA Gz opÿp
Gsp lIpElrp zE ClEGtlw opCpyopynp zq q ’c( zy cG tF
qG ’cG ( ˆ Pc q ’cG W cN (, ’%$-?fi(
jstF tF l xlErtylw lIpElrp zq q + lyo nly FpEIp lF l HFpqHw opFnEtCGtzy zq Gsp

pΓpnG zq Gsp nszFpy FHmFpG zy q ’c( Jspy+ qzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp IlEtlmwpF ty cG
oz yzG slIp FGEzyr tyGpElnGtzyF JtGs GszFp ty cN -
flEGtlw opCpyopynp qHynGtzyF nly mp HFpo Gz tyGpECEpG Gsp EpFHwGF zq lyA
˜mwlnv mzK˙ wplEytyr xpGszo- jspA nly mp pFGtxlGpo mA
Y
% ∑
q3G ’cG ( ˆ q ’cG W KtN (W ’%$-?](
Y tˆ0
JspEp ·K0N W K=N W , , , W KY N • lEp Gsp IlwHpF zq cN znnHEEtyr ty Gsp GEltytyr

olGl- jstF EpDHtEpF l ClFF zIpE Gsp olGl qzE plns FpG zq uztyG IlwHpF zq cG qzE
Jstns q3G ’cG ( tF Gz mp pIlwHlGpo- jstF nly mp nzxCHGlGtzylwwA tyGpyFtIp+
0 wlhhtnp ty h-
“fi/ %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
pIpy qzE xzopElGpwA FtBpo olGl FpGF- QzEGHylGpwA JtGs opntFtzy GEppF+ q3G ’cG (
’%$-?]( nly mp ElCtowA nzxCHGpo qEzx Gsp GEpp tGFpwq JtGszHG EpqpEpynp Gz
Gsp olGl ’PKpEntFp %$-%%(-
TG tF txCzEGlyG Gz yzGp GslG ClEGtlw opCpyopynp qHynGtzyF opÿpo ty
’%$-?fi( EpCEpFpyG Gsp pΓpnG zq cG zy q ’c( lqGpE lnnzHyGtyr qzE Gsp ’lI!
pElrp( pΓpnGF zq Gsp zGspE IlEtlmwpF cN zy q ’c(- jspA lEp yzG Gsp pΓpnG
zq cG zy q ’c( tryzEtyr Gsp pΓpnGF zq cN - jsp wlGGpE tF rtIpy mA Gsp nzy!
otGtzylw pKCpnGlGtzy
q2G ’cG ( ˆ P’q ’cG W cN (KcG (W ’%$-?–(
lyo tF Gsp mpFG wplFG FDHlEpF lCCEzKtxlGtzy Gz q ’c( mA l qHynGtzy zq cG

lwzyp- jsp DHlyGtGtpF q2G ’cG ( lyo q3G ’cG ( Jtww mp Gsp Flxp zywA ty Gsp
HywtvpwA pIpyG GslG cG lyo cN lEp tyopCpyopyG- QzE pKlxCwp+ tq Gsp pΓpnG
zq Gsp nszFpy IlEtlmwp FHmFpG slCCpyF Gz mp CHEpwA lootGtIp+
q ’c( ˆ s0 ’cG ( ) s= ’cN (, ’%$-4$(
jspy ’%$-?fi( CEzoHnpF Gsp s0 ’cG ( HC Gz ly lootGtIp nzyFGlyG- Tq Gsp pΓpnG

tF CHEpwA xHwGtCwtnlGtIp+
q ’c( ˆ s0 ’cG ( ± s= ’cN (W ’%$-4%(
Gspy ’%$-?fi( CEzoHnpF s0 ’cG ( HC Gz l xHwGtCwtnlGtIp nzyFGlyG qlnGzE- Zy

Gsp zGspE slyo+ ’%$-?–( Jtww yzG CEzoHnp s0 ’cG ( ty ptGspE nlFp- Ty qlnG+
’%$-?–( nly CEzoHnp FGEzyr pΓpnGF zy IlEtlmwp FHmFpGF qzE Jstns q ’c( slF
yz opCpyopynp lG lww-
atpJtyr CwzGF zq Gsp ClEGtlw opCpyopynp zq Gsp mzzFGpo!GEpp lCCEzKtxl!
Gtzy ’%$-=]( zy FpwpnGpo IlEtlmwpF FHmFpGF nly spwC Gz CEzItop l DHlwtGlGtIp
opFnEtCGtzy zq tGF CEzCpEGtpF- TwwHFGElGtzyF lEp FszJy ty ipnGtzyF %$-] lyo
%$-%?- ZJtyr Gz Gsp wtxtGlGtzyF zq nzxCHGpE rElCstnF+ lyo sHxly CpEnpC!
Gtzy+ Gsp FtBp zq Gsp FHmFpGF cG xHFG mp Fxlww ’w ≈ %W =W “(- jspEp lEp zq
nzHEFp l wlErp yHxmpE zq FHns FHmFpGF+ mHG zywA GszFp nszFpy qEzx lxzyr
Gsp HFHlwwA xHns FxlwwpE FpG zq strswA EpwpIlyG CEpotnGzEF lEp wtvpwA Gz mp
tyqzExlGtIp- LwFz+ GszFp FHmFpGF JszFp pΓpnG zy q ’c( tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA
lootGtIp ’%$-4$( zE xHwGtCwtnlGtIp ’%$-4%( Jtww mp xzFG EpIplwtyr-
QzE V!nwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ GspEp lEp V FpClElGp xzopwF ’%$-??(+ zyp qzE
plns nwlFF- Plns zyp tF EpwlGpo Gz Gsp EpFCpnGtIp CEzmlmtwtGtpF ’%$-=%( GsEzHrs
V
% ∑
qv ’c( ˆ wzr Cv ’c( } wzr Cw ’c(, ’%$-4=(
V
wˆ0
jsHF plns qv ’c( tF l xzyzGzyp tynEplFtyr qHynGtzy zq tGF EpFCpnGtIp CEzm!

lmtwtGA zy l wzrlEtGsxtn Fnlwp- flEGtlw opCpyopynp CwzGF zq plns EpFCpnGtIp
qv ’c( ’%$-??( zy tGF xzFG EpwpIlyG CEpotnGzEF ’%$-?4( nly spwC EpIplw szJ
Gsp wzr!zooF zq EplwtBtyr GslG nwlFF opCpyo zy Gsp EpFCpnGtIp tyCHG IlEtlmwpF-
%/-%? TwwHFGElGtzyF “fi%
0.-0? TwwHFGElGtzyF
Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp twwHFGElGp rElotpyG mzzFGtyr zy l yHxmpE zq wlErpE olGlFpGF+
HFtyr otΓpEpyG wzFF qHynGtzyF lF lCCEzCEtlGp-
0.-0?-0 NlwtqzEytl SzHFtyr

jstF olGl FpG ’flnp lyo MlEEA+ %––fi( tF lIltwlmwp qEzx Gsp NlEyprtp!Xpwwzy
iGlG tm EpCzFtGzEA= - TG nzyFtFGF zq lrrEprlGpo olGl qEzx plns zq =$+?[$
yptrsmzEszzoF ’%––$ npyFHF mwznv rEzHCF( ty NlwtqzEytl- jsp EpFCzyFp IlEt!
lmwp d tF Gsp xpotly szHFp IlwHp ty plns yptrsmzEszzo xplFHEpo ty HytGF zq
/%$$+$$$- jsp CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwpF lEp opxzrElCstnF FHns lF xpotly tynzxp
XpoTyn+ szHFtyr opyFtGA lF Ep7pnGpo mA Gsp yHxmpE zq szHFpF SzHFp+ lyo Gsp
lIpElrp znnHClynA ty plns szHFp LIpennHC- LwFz tynwHopo lF CEpotnGzEF lEp
Gsp wznlGtzy zq plns yptrsmzEszzo ’wzyrtGHop lyo wlGtGHop(+ lyo FpIpElw
DHlyGtGtpF Ep7pnGtyr Gsp CEzCpEGtpF zq Gsp szHFpF ty Gsp yptrsmzEszzo9 lI!
pElrp yHxmpE zq EzzxF LIphzzxF lyo mpoEzzxF LIpMpoExF- jspEp lEp GsHF
l GzGlw zq ptrsG CEpotnGzEF+ lww yHxpEtn-
bp ¨G l rElotpyG mzzFGtyr xzopw HFtyr Gsp XLhj CEznpoHEp+ JtGs U ˆ [
GpExtylw yzopF+ l wplEytyr ElGp ’%$-?%( zq ν ˆ $,%+ lyo Gsp SHmpE wzFF
nEtGpEtzy qzE CEpotnGtyr Gsp yHxpEtn EpFCzyFp- bp ElyozxwA otItopo Gsp
olGlFpG tyGz l GEltytyr FpG ’]$0( lyo l GpFG FpG ’=$0(-
QtrHEp %$-%“ FszJF Gsp lIpElrp lmFzwHGp pEEzE
LLP ˆ P KA } q—X ’K(K ’%$-4“(
lF l qHynGtzy qzE yHxmpE zq tGpElGtzyF X zy mzGs Gsp GEltytyr olGl lyo GpFG
olGl- jsp GpFG pEEzE tF Fppy Gz opnEplFp xzyzGzytnlwwA JtGs tynEplFtyr X +
xzEp ElCtowA oHEtyr Gsp plEwA FGlrpF lyo Gspy wpIpwtyr zΓ Gz mptyr yplEwA
nzyFGlyG lF tGpElGtzyF tynEplFp- jsHF+ Gsp nsztnp zq l ClEGtnHwlE IlwHp zq X
tF yzG nEtGtnlw+ lF wzyr lF tG tF yzG Gzz Fxlww- jstF GpyoF Gz mp Gsp nlFp ty
xlyA lCCwtnlGtzyF- jsp FsEtyvlrp FGElGprA ’%$-?%( GpyoF Gz pwtxtylGp Gsp
CEzmwpx zq zIpE¨GGtyr+ pFCpntlwwA qzE wlErpE olGl FpGF-
jsp IlwHp zq LLP lqGpE ]$$ tGpElGtzyF tF $-“%- jstF nly mp nzxClEpo Gz
GslG zq Gsp zCGtxlw nzyFGlyG CEpotnGzE xpotly·At • Jstns tF $-]–- Ty GpExF zq
xzEp qlxtwtlE DHlyGtGtpF+ Gsp FDHlEpo xHwGtCwp nzEEpwlGtzy nzpffntpyG zq GstF
xzopw tF h= ˆ $,]?- flnp lyo MlEEA ’%––fi( HFp l FzCstFGtnlGpo FClGtlw lHGz!
EprEpFFtzy CEznpoHEp+ JspEp CEpotnGtzy qzE plns yptrsmzEszzo tF mlFpo zy
xpotly szHFp IlwHpF ty yplEmA yptrsmzEszzoF+ HFtyr Gsp zGspE CEpotnGzEF lF
nzIlEtlGpF- PKCpEtxpyGtyr JtGs GElyFqzExlGtzyF GspA lnstpIpo h= ˆ $,]4+
CEpotnGtyr wzr d - kFtyr wzr d lF Gsp EpFCzyFp Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr IlwHp qzE
rElotpyG mzzFGtyr JlF h= ˆ $,][-
= sGGC9..wtm-FGlG-nxH-poH-
“fi= %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
Training and Test Absolute Error
Train Error
0.8
Test Error
0.6
Absolute Error
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 200 400 600 800
Iterations M
QTRIFD 0.W02W LIpElrp,lmFzwHGp pEEzE lF l qHynGtzy zq yHxmpE zq tGpElGtzyF

qzE Gsp NlwtqzEytl szHFtyr olGl-
QtrHEp %$-%? otFCwlAF Gsp EpwlGtIp IlEtlmwp txCzEGlynpF qzE plns zq Gsp
ptrsG CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwpF- YzG FHECEtFtyrwA+ xpotly tynzxp ty Gsp yptrs!
mzEszzo tF Gsp xzFG EpwpIlyG CEpotnGzE- zyrtGHop+ wlGtGHop+ lyo lIpElrp
znnHClynA lww slIp EzHrswA slwq Gsp EpwpIlynp zq tynzxp+ JspEplF Gsp zGspEF
lEp FzxpJslG wpFF ty7HpyGtlw-
QtrHEp %$-%4 FszJF Ftyrwp!IlEtlmwp ClEGtlw opCpyopynp CwzGF zy Gsp xzFG
EpwpIlyG yzywznlGtzy CEpotnGzEF- YzGp GslG Gsp CwzGF lEp yzG FGEtnGwA FxzzGs-
jstF tF l nzyFpDHpynp zq HFtyr GEpp!mlFpo xzopwF- OpntFtzy GEppF CEzoHnp
otFnzyGtyHzHF CtpnpJtFp nzyFGlyG xzopwF ’%$-=4(- jstF nlEEtpF zIpE Gz FHxF
zq GEppF ’%$-=](+ JtGs zq nzHEFp xlyA xzEp CtpnpF- kywtvp xzFG zq Gsp xpGs!
zoF otFnHFFpo ty GstF mzzv+ GspEp tF yz FxzzGsypFF nzyFGEltyG txCzFpo zy
Gsp EpFHwG- LEmtGElEtwA FslEC otFnzyGtyHtGtpF nly mp xzopwpo- jsp qlnG GslG
GspFp nHEIpF rpypElwwA pKstmtG l FxzzGs GEpyo tF mpnlHFp GslG tF JslG tF
pFGtxlGpo Gz mpFG CEpotnG Gsp EpFCzyFp qzE GstF CEzmwpx- jstF tF zqGpy Gsp
nlFp-
jsp slFs xlEvF lG Gsp mlFp zq plns CwzG opwtyplGp Gsp opntwpF zq Gsp
olGl otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr IlEtlmwpF- YzGp GslG spEp Gsp olGl
opyFtGA tF wzJpE yplE Gsp porpF+ pFCpntlwwA qzE wlErpE IlwHpF- jstF nlHFpF Gsp
nHEIpF Gz mp FzxpJslG wpFF Jpww opGpExtypo ty GszFp EprtzyF- jsp IpEGtnlw
FnlwpF zq Gsp CwzGF lEp Gsp Flxp+ lyo rtIp l ItFHlw nzxClEtFzy zq Gsp EpwlGtIp
txCzEGlynp zq Gsp otΓpEpyG IlEtlmwpF-
jsp ClEGtlw opCpyopynp zq xpotly szHFp IlwHp zy xpotly tynzxp tF
xzyzGzytn tynEplFtyr+ mptyr yplEwA wtyplE zIpE Gsp xlty mzoA zq olGl- SzHFp
IlwHp tF rpypElwwA xzyzGzytn opnEplFtyr JtGs tynEplFtyr lIpElrp znnHClynA+
pKnpCG CpEslCF qzE lIpElrp znnHClynA ElGpF wpFF Gsly zyp- Xpotly szHFp
%/-%? TwwHFGElGtzyF “fi“
Population
AveBedrms
AveRooms
HouseAge
Latitude
AveOccup
Longitude
MedInc
0 20 40 60 80 100
Relative importance
QTRIFD 0.W03W hpwlGtIp txCzEGlynp zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF qzE Gsp NlwtqzEytl szHFtyr
olGl-
IlwHp slF l yzyxzyzGzytn ClEGtlw opCpyopynp zy lIpElrp yHxmpE zq EzzxF-

TG slF l xtytxHx lG lCCEzKtxlGpwA GsEpp EzzxF lyo tF tynEplFtyr mzGs qzE
FxlwwpE lyo wlErpE IlwHpF-
Xpotly szHFp IlwHp tF Fppy Gz slIp l IpEA Jplv ClEGtlw opCpyopynp zy
szHFp lrp GslG tF tynzyFtFGpyG JtGs tGF txCzEGlynp Elyvtyr ’QtrHEp %$-%?(-
jstF FHrrpFGF GslG GstF Jplv xlty pΓpnG xlA mp xlFvtyr FGEzyrpE tyGpEln!
Gtzy pΓpnGF JtGs zGspE IlEtlmwpF- QtrHEp %$-%[ FszJF Gsp GJz!IlEtlmwp ClEGtlw
opCpyopynp zq szHFtyr IlwHp zy uztyG IlwHpF zq xpotly lrp lyo lIpElrp zn!
nHClynA- Ly tyGpElnGtzy mpGJppy GspFp GJz IlEtlmwpF tF lCClEpyG- QzE IlwHpF
zq lIpElrp znnHClynA rEplGpE Gsly GJz+ szHFp IlwHp tF yplEwA tyopCpyopyG
zq xpotly lrp+ JspEplF qzE IlwHpF wpFF Gsly GJz GspEp tF l FGEzyr opCpyopynp
zy lrp-
QtrHEp %$-%fi FszJF Gsp GJz!IlEtlmwp ClEGtlw opCpyopynp zq Gsp ¨GGpo
xzopw zy uztyG IlwHpF zq wzyrtGHop lyo wlGtGHop+ otFCwlApo lF l Fslopo
nzyGzHE CwzG- jspEp tF nwplEwA l IpEA FGEzyr opCpyopynp zq xpotly szHFp
IlwHp zy Gsp yptrsmzEszzo wznlGtzy ty NlwtqzEytl- YzGp GslG QtrHEp %$-%fi tF
yzG l CwzG zq szHFp IlwHp IpEFHF wznlGtzy tryzEtyr Gsp pΓpnGF zq Gsp zGspE
CEpotnGzEF ’%$-?–(- tvp lww ClEGtlw opCpyopynp CwzGF+ tG EpCEpFpyGF Gsp pΓpnG
zq wznlGtzy lqGpE lnnzHyGtyr qzE Gsp pΓpnGF zq Gsp zGspE yptrsmzEszzo lyo
szHFp lGGEtmHGpF ’%$-?fi(- TG nly mp ItpJpo lF EpCEpFpyGtyr ly pKGEl CEpxtHx
zyp ClAF qzE wznlGtzy- jstF CEpxtHx tF Fppy Gz mp EpwlGtIpwA wlErp yplE Gsp
flnt¨n nzlFG pFCpntlwwA ty Gsp MlA LEpl lyo zF LyrpwpF8ily Otprz Ep!
“fi? %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
Partial Dependence
Partial Dependence
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
2 4 6 8 10 2 3 4 5
MedInc AveOccup
1.5
1.0
1.0
Partial Dependence
Partial Dependence
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
10 20 30 40 50 4 6 8 10
HouseAge AveRooms
QTRIFD 0.W04W flEGtlw opCpyopynp zq szHFtyr IlwHp zy Gsp yzywznlGtzy IlEt,

lmwpF qzE Gsp NlwtqzEytl szHFtyr olGl- jsp Epo GtnvF lG Gsp mlFp zq Gsp CwzG lEp
opntwpF zq Gsp tyCHG IlEtlmwpF-
1.0
0.5
0.0
50
40
30
2
20 3
HouseAge
4
10
5 AveOccup
QTRIFD 0.W05W flEGtlw opCpyopynp zq szHFp IlwHp zy xpotly lrp lyo lIpE,
lrp znnHClynA- jspEp lCCplEF Gz mp l FGEzyr tyGpElnGtzy p;pnG mpGJppy GspFp GJz
IlEtlmwpF-
%/-%? TwwHFGElGtzyF “fi4
42
1.0
40
0.5
38
Latitude
0.0
36
−0.5
34
−1.0
−124 −122 −120 −118 −116 −114
Longitude
QTRIFD 0.W06W flEGtlw opCpyopynp zq xpotly szHFp IlwHp zy wznlGtzy ty Nlw,

tqzEytl- Zyp HytG tF %//W ///+ lG %––/ CEtnpF+ lyo Gsp IlwHpF CwzGGpo lEp EpwlGtIp
Gz Gsp zIpElww xpotly zq %]/W ///-
rtzyF- Ty Gsp yzEGspEy+ npyGElw IlwwpA+ lyo FzHGsplFGpEy opFpEG EprtzyF zq

NlwtqzEytl+ wznlGtzy nzFGF nzyFtopElmwA wpFF-
0.-0?-1 dpJ eplwlyo QtFs

fwlyG lyo lytxlw pnzwzrtFGF HFp EprEpFFtzy xzopwF Gz CEpotnG FCpntpF CEpF!
pynp+ lmHyolynp lyo EtnsypFF lF l qHynGtzy zq pyItEzyxpyGlw IlEtlmwpF-
LwGszHrs qzE xlyA AplEF FtxCwp wtyplE lyo ClElxpGEtn xzopwF JpEp CzCH!
wlE+ EpnpyG wtGpElGHEp FszJF tynEplFtyr tyGpEpFG ty xzEp FzCstFGtnlGpo xzo!
pwF FHns lF rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopwF ’ipnGtzy –-%+ RLX(+ xHwGtIlEtlGp
lolCGtIp EprEpFFtzy FCwtypF ’ipnGtzy –-?+ XLhi( lyo mzzFGpo EprEpFFtzy
GEppF ’ plGsJtnv pG lw-+ =$$4: plGsJtnv pG lw-+ =$$[(- SpEp Jp xzopw Gsp
“fi[ %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
CEpFpynp lyo lmHyolynp zq Gsp Mwlnv ZEpz OzEA+ l xlEtyp ¨Fs qzHyo ty Gsp
znplytn JlGpEF lEzHyo YpJ eplwlyo-˜
QtrHEp %$-%] FszJF Gsp wznlGtzyF zq %fi+$$$ GElJwF ’oppC!JlGpE ypG ¨Fstyr+
JtGs l xlKtxHx opCGs zq =vx(+ lyo Gsp Epo CztyGF tyotnlGp GszFp =“4“
GElJwF qzE Jstns Gsp Mwlnv ZEpz JlF CEpFpyG+ zyp zq zIpE l sHyoEpo FCpntpF
EprHwlEwA EpnzEopo- jsp nlGns FtBp ty vr qzE plns FCpntpF JlF EpnzEopo qzE
plns GElJw- Lwzyr JtGs Gsp FCpntpF nlGns+ l yHxmpE zq pyItEzyxpyGlw xpl!
FHEpxpyGF lEp lIltwlmwp qzE plns GElJw- jspFp tynwHop Gsp lIpElrp opCGs zq
Gsp GElJw ’LIrOpCGs(+ lyo Gsp GpxCpElGHEp lyo FlwtytGA zq Gsp JlGpE- itynp
Gsp wlGGpE GJz lEp FGEzyrwA nzEEpwlGpo JtGs opCGs+ plGsJtnv pG lw- ’=$$[(
opEtIpo tyFGplo jpxChpFto lyo ilwhpFto+ Gsp EpFtoHlwF zmGltypo Jspy GspFp
GJz xplFHEpF lEp louHFGpo qzE opCGs ’Itl FpClElGp yzy!ClElxpGEtn EprEpF!
FtzyF(- iijRElo tF l xplFHEp zq Gsp rElotpyG zq Gsp Fpl FHEqlnp GpxCpElGHEp+
lyo Nswl tF l mEzlo tyotnlGzE zq pnzFAGpx CEzoHnGtItGA Itl FlGpwwtGp!txlrp
xplFHEpxpyGF- iHFflEGXlGGpE CEzItopF l xplFHEp zq FHFCpyopo ClEGtnHwlGp
xlGGpE+ ClEGtnHwlEwA ty nzlFGlw JlGpEF+ lyo tF lwFz FlGpwwtGp opEtIpo-
jsp rzlw zq GstF lylwAFtF tF Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA zq ÿotyr Mwlnv
ZEpz ty l GElJw+ lF Jpww lF Gsp pKCpnGpo nlGns FtBp+ FGlyolEotBpo Gz Glvp
tyGz lnnzHyG Gsp pΓpnGF zq IlEtlGtzy ty GElJw FCppo lyo otFGlynp+ lF Jpww
lF Gsp xpFs FtBp zq Gsp GElJw ypG- jsp lHGszEF HFpo wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy
qzE pFGtxlGtyr Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA- QzE Gsp nlGns FtBp+ tG xtrsG Fppx ylGHElw
Gz lFFHxp l fztFFzy otFGEtmHGtzy lyo xzopw Gsp wzr zq Gsp xply nzHyG+
mHG GstF tF zqGpy yzG lCCEzCEtlGp mpnlHFp zq Gsp pKnpFFtIp yHxmpE zq BpEzF-
LwGszHrs FCpntlwtBpo lCCEzlnspF slIp mppy opIpwzCpo+ FHns lF Gsp BpEz,
ty7lGpo fztFFzy ’ lxmpEG+ %––=(+ GspA nszFp l FtxCwpE lCCEzlns- Tq d tF
Gsp ’yzy!yprlGtIp( nlGns FtBp+
P’d Kc( ˆ P’d Kd / $W c( ± fE’d / $Kc(, ’%$-4?(
jsp Fpnzyo GpEx tF pFGtxlGpo mA Gsp wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy+ lyo Gsp ËFG GpEx
nly mp pFGtxlGpo HFtyr zywA Gsp =“4“ GElJwF JtGs l CzFtGtIp nlGns-
QzE Gsp wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy Gsp lHGszEF HFpo l rElotpyG mzzFGpo xzopw
’RMX(3 JtGs mtyzxtlw opItlynp wzFF qHynGtzy+ opCGs!%$ GEppF+ lyo l FsEtyv!
lrp qlnGzE ν ˆ $,$=4- QzE Gsp CzFtGtIp!nlGns EprEpFFtzy+ GspA xzopwpo
wzr’d ( HFtyr l RMX JtGs FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF ’lwFz opCGs!%$ GEppF+ mHG
ν ˆ $,$%(+ lyo Hy!wzrrpo Gsp CEpotnGtzyF- Ty mzGs nlFpF GspA HFpo %$!qzwo
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy qzE FpwpnGtyr Gsp yHxmpE zq GpExF+ lF Jpww lF Gsp FsEtyvlrp
qlnGzE-
2 jsp xzopwF) olGl) lyo xlCF FszJy spEp JpEp vtyowA CEzItopo mA OE Uzsy plGsJtnv
zq Gsp dlGtzylw TyFGtGHGp zq blGpE lyo LGxzFCspEtn hpFplEns ty dpJ eplwlyo) lyo OE
Ulyp PwtGs) inszzw zq MzGlyA) kytIpEFtGA zq cpwmzHEyp- jsp nzwwpnGtzy zq Gsp EpFplEns
GElJw olGl Gzzv Cwlnp qEzx %–fi–8=//4) lyo JlF qHyopo mA Gsp dpJ eplwlyo ctytFGEA zq
gtFspEtpF-
3 apEFtzy %-4!fi zq Clnvlrp rmx ty h) IpE- =-=-/-
%/-%? TwwHFGElGtzyF “fifi
QTRIFD 0.W07W clC zq YpJ eplwlyo lyo tGF FHEEzHyotyr pKnwHFtIp pnzyzxtn
Bzyp+ FszJtyr Gsp wznlGtzyF zq %fi+/// GElJwF ’Fxlww mwHp ozGF( Glvpy mpGJppy %–fi–
lyo =//4- jsp Epo CztyGF tyotnlGp GElJwF qzE Jstns Gsp FCpntpF Mwlnv ZEpz OzEA
JpEp CEpFpyG-
“fi] %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
1.0
GBM Test
0.34
GBM CV
GAM Test
0.8
0.32
Mean Deviance
0.6
0.30
Sensitivity
0.28
0.4
0.26
0.2
AUC
0.24
GAM 0.97
GBM 0.98
0.0
0 500 1000 1500 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Number of Trees Specificity
QTRIFD 0.W08W jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp xply opItlynp lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp
yHxmpE zq GEppF qzE Gsp RMc wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw 6G Gz Gsp CEpFpynp.lmFpynp
olGl- iszJy lEp %/,qzwo nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl ’lyo % × F-p- mlEF(+
lyo GpFG opItlynp zy Gsp GpFG olGl- LwFz FszJy qzE nzxClEtFzy tF Gsp GpFG opItlynp
HFtyr l RLc xzopw JtGs ] zq qzE plns GpEx- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF hZN nHEIpF
zy Gsp GpFG olGl qzE Gsp nszFpy RMc xzopw ’IpEGtnlw wtyp ty wpqG CwzG( lyo Gsp
RLc xzopw-
QtrHEp %$-%– ’wpqG Clypw( FszJF Gsp xply mtyzxtlw opItlynp qzE Gsp Fp!
DHpynp zq RMX xzopwF+ mzGs qzE %$!qzwo Na lyo GpFG olGl- jspEp tF l xzo!
pFG txCEzIpxpyG zIpE Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq l RLX xzopw+ ¨G HFtyr FxzzGstyr
FCwtypF JtGs ] oprEppF!zq!qEppozx ’oq( CpE GpEx- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp
hZN nHEIpF ’Fpp ipnGtzy –-=-4( qzE mzGs xzopwF+ Jstns xplFHEpF CEpotnGtIp
CpEqzExlynp- QEzx GstF CztyG zq ItpJ+ Gsp CpEqzExlynp wzzvF IpEA Ftxt!
wlE+ JtGs RMX CpEslCF slItyr l FwtrsG porp lF FHxxlEtBpo mA Gsp LkN
’lEpl HyopE Gsp nHEIp(- LG Gsp CztyG zq pDHlw FpyFtGtItGA#FCpnt¨ntGA+ RMX
lnstpIpF –%0+ lyo RLX –$0-
QtrHEp %$-=$ FHxxlEtBpF Gsp nzyGEtmHGtzyF zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF ty Gsp wzrtFGtn
RMX ¨G- bp Fpp GslG GspEp tF l Jpww!opÿpo opCGs Elyrp zIpE Jstns Mwlnv
ZEpz lEp nlHrsG+ JtGs xHns xzEp qEpDHpyG nlCGHEp ty nzwopE JlGpEF- bp oz
yzG rtIp opGltwF zq Gsp DHlyGtGlGtIp nlGns xzopw: Gsp txCzEGlyG IlEtlmwpF
JpEp xHns Gsp Flxp-
Lww Gsp CEpotnGzEF HFpo ty GspFp xzopwF lEp lIltwlmwp zy l ÿp rpzrElCst!
nlw rEto: ty qlnG GspA JpEp opEtIpo qEzx pyItEzyxpyGlw lGwlFpF+ FlGpwwtGp tx!
lrpF lyo Gsp wtvp1Fpp plGsJtnv pG lw- ’=$$[( qzE opGltwF- jstF lwFz xplyF
GslG CEpotnGtzyF nly mp xlop zy GstF rEto+ lyo txCzEGpo tyGz RTi xlCCtyr
FAFGpxF- QtrHEp %$-=% FszJF CEpotnGtzy xlCF qzE mzGs CEpFpynp lyo nlGns
FtBp+ JtGs mzGs FGlyolEotBpo Gz l nzxxzy FpG zq GElJw nzyotGtzyF: Ftynp Gsp
CEpotnGzEF IlEA ty l nzyGtyHzHF qlFstzy JtGs rpzrElCstnlw wznlGtzy+ Fz oz
Gsp CEpotnGtzyF-
%/-%? TwwHFGElGtzyF “fi–
−1
TempResid
AvgDepth
SusPartMatter
−2
SalResid
f(TempResid)
f(AvgDepth)
SSTGrad
−3
ChlaCase2
Slope
−4
TidalCurr
Pentade
−5
CodendSize
DisOrgMatter
Distance
−6
Speed
OrbVel
−7
0 10 25 −4 0 2 4 6 0 500 1000 2000
Relative influence TempResid AvgDepth
−1
−1
f(SusPartMatter)
−3
−3
f(SSTGrad)
−3
f(SalResid)
−5
−5
−5
−7
−7
−7
0 5 10 15 −0.8 −0.4 0.0 0.4 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
SusPartMatter SalResid SSTGrad
QTRIFD 0.W1.W jsp GzC,wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp EpwlGtIp ty7Hpynp nzxCHGpo qEzx
Gsp RMc wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw- jsp Epxltytyr ClypwF FszJ Gsp ClEGtlw op,
Cpyopynp CwzGF qzE Gsp wplotyr 6Ip IlEtlmwpF+ lww CwzGGpo zy Gsp Flxp Fnlwp qzE
nzxClEtFzy-
MpnlHFp zq GsptE lmtwtGA Gz xzopw tyGpElnGtzyF lyo lHGzxlGtnlwwA FpwpnG

IlEtlmwpF+ lF Jpww lF EzmHFGypFF Gz zHGwtpEF lyo xtFFtyr olGl+ RMX xzopwF
lEp ElCtowA rltytyr CzCHwlEtGA ty GstF olGl!Etns lyo pyGsHFtlFGtn nzxxHytGA-
0.-0?-“ OpxzrElCstnF OlGl

Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp twwHFGElGp rElotpyG mzzFGtyr zy l xHwGtnwlFF nwlFFt¨nl!
Gtzy CEzmwpx+ HFtyr XLhj- jsp olGl nzxp qEzx –=?“ DHpFGtzyyltEpF ¨wwpo
zHG mA FszCCtyr xlww nHFGzxpEF ty Gsp ily QElyntFnz MlA LEpl ’TxClnG
hpFzHEnpF+ Tyn-+ NzwHxmHF+ ZS(- Lxzyr Gsp DHpFGtzyF lEp %? nzynpEytyr
opxzrElCstnF- QzE GstF twwHFGElGtzy Gsp rzlw tF Gz CEpotnG znnHClGtzy HF!
tyr Gsp zGspE %“ IlEtlmwpF lF CEpotnGzEF+ lyo spynp topyGtqA opxzrElCstn
IlEtlmwpF GslG otFnEtxtylGp mpGJppy otΓpEpyG znnHClGtzylw nlGprzEtpF- bp
ElyozxwA otItopo Gsp olGl tyGz l GEltytyr FpG ’]$0( lyo GpFG FpG ’=$0(+
lyo HFpo U ˆ [ yzop GEppF JtGs l wplEytyr ElGp ν ˆ $,%-
QtrHEp %$-== FszJF Gsp V ˆ – znnHClGtzy nwlFF IlwHpF lwzyr JtGs GsptE
nzEEpFCzyotyr pEEzE ElGpF- jsp zIpElww pEEzE ElGp tF ?=-40+ Jstns nly mp
nzxClEpo Gz Gsp yHww ElGp zq [–0 zmGltypo mA CEpotnGtyr Gsp xzFG yHxpEzHF
“]/ %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
QTRIFD 0.W10W Rpzwzrtnlw CEpotnGtzy xlCF zq Gsp CEpFpynp CEzmlmtwtGA ’wpqG

xlC( lyo nlGns FtBp ’EtrsG xlC( zmGltypo qEzx Gsp rElotpyG mzzFGpo xzopwF-
nwlFF fEzD#Xly ’fEzqpFFtzylw#XlylrpEtlw(- jsp qzHE mpFG CEpotnGpo nwlFFpF

lEp Fppy Gz mp hpGtEpo+ iGHopyG+ fEzD#Xly+ lyo SzxpxlvpE-
QtrHEp %$-=“ FszJF Gsp EpwlGtIp CEpotnGzE IlEtlmwp txCzEGlynpF lF lIpE!
lrpo zIpE lww nwlFFpF ’%$-?[(- QtrHEp %$-=? otFCwlAF Gsp tyotItoHlw EpwlGtIp
txCzEGlynp otFGEtmHGtzyF ’%$-?4( qzE plns zq Gsp qzHE mpFG CEpotnGpo nwlFFpF-
Zyp FppF GslG Gsp xzFG EpwpIlyG CEpotnGzEF lEp rpypElwwA otΓpEpyG qzE plns
EpFCpnGtIp nwlFF- Ly pKnpCGtzy tF lrp Jstns tF lxzyr Gsp GsEpp xzFG EpwpIlyG
qzE CEpotnGtyr hpGtEpo+ iGHopyG+ lyo fEzD#Xly-
QtrHEp %$-=4 FszJF Gsp ClEGtlw opCpyopynp zq Gsp wzr!zooF ’%$-4=( zy lrp
qzE GspFp GsEpp nwlFFpF- jsp lmFntFFl IlwHpF lEp zEopEpo nzopF qzE EpFCpnGtIp
pDHlwwA FClnpo lrp tyGpEIlwF- Zyp FppF GslG lqGpE lnnzHyGtyr qzE Gsp nzyGEt!
mHGtzyF zq Gsp zGspE IlEtlmwpF+ Gsp zooF zq mptyr EpGtEpo lEp strspE qzE zwopE
CpzCwp+ JspEplF Gsp zCCzFtGp tF Gsp nlFp qzE mptyr l FGHopyG- jsp zooF zq
mptyr CEzqpFFtzylw#xlylrpEtlw lEp strspFG qzE xtoowp!lrpo CpzCwp- jspFp
EpFHwGF lEp zq nzHEFp yzG FHECEtFtyr- jspA twwHFGElGp GslG tyFCpnGtyr ClEGtlw
opCpyopynpF FpClElGpwA qzE plns nwlFF nly wplo Gz FpyFtmwp EpFHwGF-
MtmwtzrElCstn dzGpF
inslCtEp ’%––$( opIpwzCpo Gsp ËFG FtxCwp mzzFGtyr CEznpoHEp ty Gsp fLN
wplEytyr qElxpJzEv ’alwtlyG+ %–]?: VplEyF lyo alBtElyt+ %––?(- inslCtEp
%/-%? TwwHFGElGtzyF “]%
Overall Error Rate = 0.425
Student
Retired
Prof/Man
Homemaker
Labor
Clerical
Military
Unemployed
Sales
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Error Rate
QTRIFD 0.W11W PEEzE ElGp qzE plns znnHClGtzy ty Gsp opxzrElCstnF olGl-
yrs-BA
children
num-hsld
lang
typ-home
mar-stat
ethnic
sex
mar-dlinc
hsld-stat
edu
income
age
0 20 40 60 80 100
Relative Importance
QTRIFD 0.W12W hpwlGtIp txCzEGlynp zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF lF lIpElrpo zIpE lww

nwlFFpF qzE Gsp opxzrElCstnF olGl-
“]= %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
Class = Retired Class = Student
yrs-BA children
num-hsld yrs-BA
edu lang
children mar-dlinc
typ-home sex
lang typ-home
mar-stat num-hsld
hsld-stat ethnic
income edu
ethnic mar-stat
sex income
mar-dlinc age
age hsld-stat
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
Relative Importance Relative Importance
Class = Prof/Man Class = Homemaker
children yrs-BA
yrs-BA hsld-stat
mar-stat age
lang income
num-hsld typ-home
sex lang
typ-home mar-stat
hsld-stat edu
ethnic num-hsld
mar-dlinc ethnic
age children
income mar-dlinc
edu sex
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
Relative Importance Relative Importance
QTRIFD 0.W13W fEpotnGzE IlEtlmwp txCzEGlynpF FpClElGpwA qzE plns zq Gsp qzHE
nwlFFpF JtGs wzJpFG pEEzE ElGp qzE Gsp opxzrElCstnF olGl-
%/-%? TwwHFGElGtzyF “]“
Retired Student
2
Partial Dependence
Partial Dependence
3
1
2
0
1
-1
0
-2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
age age
Prof/Man
2
Partial Dependence
1
0
-1
-2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
age
QTRIFD 0.W14W flEGtlw opCpyopynp zq Gsp zooF zq GsEpp ot;pEpyG znnHClGtzyF

zy lrp+ qzE Gsp opxzrElCstnF olGl-
FszJpo GslG l Jplv wplEypE nzHwo lwJlAF txCEzIp tGF CpEqzExlynp mA GElty!
tyr GJz lootGtzylw nwlFFt¨pEF zy ¨wGpEpo IpEFtzyF zq Gsp tyCHG olGl FGEplx-
L Jplv wplEypE tF ly lwrzEtGsx qzE CEzoHntyr l GJz!nwlFF nwlFFt¨pE JtGs
CpEqzExlynp rHlElyGppo ’JtGs strs CEzmlmtwtGA( Gz mp Ftryt¨nlyGwA mpGGpE
Gsly l nzty!7tC- LqGpE wplEytyr ly tytGtlw nwlFFt¨pE R0 zy Gsp ËFG Y GEltytyr
CztyGF+
| R= tF wplEypo zy l ypJ FlxCwp zq Y CztyGF+ slwq zq Jstns lEp xtFnwlF!

Ft¨po mA R0 :
| R˜ tF wplEypo zy Y CztyGF qzE Jstns R0 lyo R= otFlrEpp:
| Gsp mzzFGpo nwlFFt¨pE tF RM ˆ xluzEtGA IzGp’R0 W R= W R˜ (-
inslCtEp&F ˜iGEpyrGs zq bplv plEylmtwtGA˙ GspzEpx CEzIpF GslG RM slF

txCEzIpo CpEqzExlynp zIpE R0 -
QEpHyo ’%––4( CEzCzFpo l ˜mzzFG mA xluzEtGA˙ IlEtlGtzy Jstns nzxmtypo
xlyA Jplv wplEypEF FtxHwGlypzHFwA lyo txCEzIpo Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp
FtxCwp mzzFGtyr lwrzEtGsx zq inslCtEp- jsp GspzEA FHCCzEGtyr mzGs zq GspFp
“]? %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
lwrzEtGsxF EpDHtEpF Gsp Jplv wplEypE Gz CEzoHnp l nwlFFt¨pE JtGs l ¨Kpo

pEEzE ElGp- jstF wpo Gz Gsp xzEp lolCGtIp lyo EplwtFGtn LolMzzFG ’QEpHyo
lyo inslCtEp+ %––[l( lyo tGF zΓFCEtyr+ JspEp GstF lFFHxCGtzy JlF oEzCCpo-
QEpHyo lyo inslCtEp ’%––[l( lyo inslCtEp lyo ityrpE ’%–––( CEzItop
Fzxp GspzEA Gz FHCCzEG GsptE lwrzEtGsxF+ ty Gsp qzEx zq HCCpE mzHyoF zy
rpypElwtBlGtzy pEEzE- jstF GspzEA slF pIzwIpo ty Gsp nzxCHGlGtzylw wplEytyr
nzxxHytGA+ tytGtlwwA mlFpo zy Gsp nzynpCGF zq fLN wplEytyr- ZGspE Gspz!
EtpF lGGpxCGtyr Gz pKCwlty mzzFGtyr nzxp qEzx rlxp GspzEA ’QEpHyo lyo
inslCtEp+ %––[m: MEptxly+ %–––: MEptxly+ %––](+ lyo aN GspzEA ’inslCtEp
pG lw-+ %––](- jsp mzHyoF lyo Gsp GspzEA lFFzntlGpo JtGs Gsp LolMzzFG
lwrzEtGsxF lEp tyGpEpFGtyr+ mHG Gpyo Gz mp Gzz wzzFp Gz mp zq CElnGtnlw tx!
CzEGlynp- Ty CElnGtnp+ mzzFGtyr lnstpIpF EpFHwGF qlE xzEp txCEpFFtIp Gsly
Gsp mzHyoF JzHwo txCwA- inslCtEp ’=$$=( lyo XptE lyo h6 lGFns ’=$$“( rtIp
HFpqHw zIpEItpJF xzEp EpnpyG Gsly Gsp ËFG potGtzy zq GstF mzzv-
QEtpoxly pG lw- ’=$$$( lyo QEtpoxly ’=$$%( qzEx Gsp mlFtF qzE zHE pKCz!
FtGtzy ty GstF nslCGpE- QEtpoxly pG lw- ’=$$$( lylwABp LolMzzFG FGlGtFGtnlwwA+
opEtIp Gsp pKCzypyGtlw nEtGpEtzy+ lyo FszJ GslG tG pFGtxlGpF Gsp wzr!zooF
zq Gsp nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGA- jspA CEzCzFp lootGtIp GEpp xzopwF+ Gsp EtrsG!FtBpo
GEppF lyo LYZaL EpCEpFpyGlGtzy zq ipnGtzy %$-%%+ lyo Gsp xHwGtnwlFF wzrtG
qzExHwlGtzy- QEtpoxly ’=$$%( opIpwzCpo rElotpyG mzzFGtyr lyo FsEtyvlrp
qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lyo EprEpFFtzy+ Jstwp QEtpoxly ’%–––( pKCwzEpo FGznslFGtn
IlEtlyGF zq mzzFGtyr- XlFzy pG lw- ’=$$$( lwFz pxmElnpo l rElotpyG lCCEzlns
Gz mzzFGtyr- LF Gsp CHmwtFspo otFnHFFtzyF zq QEtpoxly pG lw- ’=$$$( FszJF+
GspEp tF Fzxp nzyGEzIpEFA lmzHG szJ lyo JsA mzzFGtyr JzEvF-
itynp Gsp CHmwtnlGtzy zq Gsp ËFG potGtzy zq GstF mzzv+ GspFp opmlGpF slIp
nzyGtyHpo+ lyo FCEplo tyGz Gsp FGlGtFGtnlw nzxxHytGA JtGs l FpEtpF zq ClCpEF
zy nzyFtFGpynA zq mzzFGtyr ’Utlyr+ =$$?: HrzFt lyo alAlGtF+ =$$?: eslyr
lyo dH+ =$$4: MlEGwpGG lyo jElFvty+ =$$fi(- XplFp lyo bAypE ’=$$](+
GsEzHrs l FpEtpF zq FtxHwlGtzy pKlxCwpF+ nslwwpyrp Fzxp zq zHE tyGpECEp!
GlGtzyF zq mzzFGtyr: zHE EpFCzyFp ’QEtpoxly pG lw-+ =$$]l( CHGF xzFG zq
GspFp zmupnGtzyF Gz EpFG- L EpnpyG FHEIpA mA M6 Hswxlyy lyo SzGszEy ’=$$fi(
FHCCzEGF zHE lCCEzlns Gz mzzFGtyr-
PKpEntFpF
PK- %$-% OpEtIp pKCEpFFtzy ’%$-%=( qzE Gsp HColGp ClElxpGpE ty LolMzzFG-
PK- %$-= fEzIp EpFHwG ’%$-%[(+ GslG tF+ Gsp xtytxtBpE zq Gsp CzCHwlGtzy
IpEFtzy zq Gsp LolMzzFG nEtGpEtzy+ tF zyp!slwq zq Gsp wzr zooF-
PK- %$-“ iszJ GslG Gsp xlErtylw lIpElrp ’%$-?fi( EpnzIpEF lootGtIp lyo
xHwGtCwtnlGtIp qHynGtzyF ’%$-4$( lyo ’%$-4%(+ Jstwp Gsp nzyotGtzylw pKCpn!
GlGtzy ’%$-?–( ozpF yzG-
PKpEntFpF “]4
PK- %$-?
’l( bEtGp l CEzrElx txCwpxpyGtyr LolMzzFG JtGs GEppF-
’m( hpoz Gsp nzxCHGlGtzyF qzE Gsp pKlxCwp zq QtrHEp %$-=- fwzG Gsp GElty!
tyr pEEzE lF Jpww lF GpFG pEEzE+ lyo otFnHFF tGF mpslItzE-
’n( TyIpFGtrlGp Gsp yHxmpE zq tGpElGtzyF yppopo Gz xlvp Gsp GpFG pEEzE
ÿlwwA FGlEG Gz EtFp-
’o( Nslyrp Gsp FpGHC zq GstF pKlxCwp lF qzwwzJF9 opÿp GJz nwlFFpF+ JtGs
Gsp qplGHEpF ty NwlFF % mptyr c0 W c= W , , , W c0$ + FGlyolEo tyopCpy!
opyG RlHFFtly IlEtlGpF- Ty NwlFF =+ Gsp qplGHEpF c0 W c= W , , , W c0$ lEp
lwFz
( FGlyolEo tyopCpyopyG RlHFFtly+ mHG nzyotGtzypo zy Gsp pIpyG
=
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hpCplG Gsp LolMzzFG pKCpEtxpyGF lF ty QtrHEp %$-= lyo otFnHFF Gsp
EpFHwGF-
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Ft¨nlGtzy CEzmwpx+ nzyFtopE Gsp nzotyr d ˆ ’d0 W , , , W dV (j JtGs
{
%W tq R ˆ Qv
dv ˆ 0 ’%$-44(
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P’dW q (+ FHmupnG Gz Gsp BpEz!FHx nzyFGEltyG+ lyo EpwlGp GspFp Gz Gsp
nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF-
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Gsp FClx olGl Gz mp 4-40 qzE l rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopw ’RLX(+ lyo
?-40 qzE rElotpyG mzzFGtyr ’RMX(+ JtGs l GpFG FlxCwp zq FtBp %4“[-
’l( iszJ GslG Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzE zq GspFp pFGtxlGpF tF lmzHG $-[0-
itynp Gsp Flxp GpFG olGl lEp HFpo qzE mzGs xpGszoF+ Gsp pEEzE ElGpF lEp
nzEEpwlGpo+ lyo Jp nlyyzG CpEqzEx l GJz!FlxCwp G!GpFG- bp nly nzxClEp
Gsp xpGszoF otEpnGwA zy plns GpFG zmFpEIlGtzy+ wplotyr Gz Gsp FHxxlEA
RMX
RLX NzEEpnG PEEzE
NzEEpnG %?“? %]
PEEzE ““ 4%
“][ %/- MzzFGtyr lyo LootGtIp jEppF
jsp XnYpxlE GpFG qznHFpF zy Gsp otFnzEolyG pEEzEF+ ““ IF- %]-

’m( NzyoHnG l GpFG Gz FszJ GslG RLX xlvpF Ftryt¨nlyGwA xzEp pEEzEF
Gsly rElotpyG mzzFGtyr+ JtGs l GJz!Ftopo C!IlwHp zq $,$“[-
PK- %$-fi OpEtIp pKCEpFFtzy ’%$-“=(-
PK- %$-] NzyFtopE l V!nwlFF CEzmwpx JspEp Gsp GlErpGF Atv lEp nzopo lF
% tq zmFpEIlGtzy t tF ty nwlFF v lyo BpEz ( zGspEJtFp- iHCCzFp Jp slIp l
V
nHEEpyG xzopw qv ’K(W v ˆ %W , , , W V+ JtGs vˆ0 qv ’K( ˆ $ ’Fpp ’%$-=%( ty
ipnGtzy %$-[(- bp JtFs Gz HColGp Gsp xzopw qzE zmFpEIlGtzyF ty l Eprtzy h
ty CEpotnGzE FClnp+ mA lootyr nzyFGlyGF qv ’K( ) γv + JtGs γV ˆ $-
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ËFG lyo Fpnzyo opEtIlGtIpF-
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(
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γv ˆ ( Kt ∈h
0
W v ˆ %W , , , W V } %W ’%$-4fi(
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(V
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v ˆ %W , , , W V-
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% tq zmFpEIlGtzy t tF ty nwlFF v lyo BpEz zGspEJtFp- kFtyr Gsp xHwGtyzxtlw
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mp rEzJy lG plns rElotpyG!mzzFGtyr tGpElGtzy-
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ty ’%$-?fi( pffntpyGwA-
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LF ty zHE rpypEtn FHCpEItFpo wplEytyr CEzmwpx+ lFFHxp Jp slIp ly tyCHG
IpnGzE c JtGs C nzxCzypyGF+ lyo l GlErpG d - pG ωx W x ˆ %W =W , , , W XW mp
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c= c0 c= c0
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Gsp xzopw ¨GF Jpww+ spynp Gsp ylxp ˜CEzupnGtzy CHEFHtG-˙ QtrHEp %%-% √ FszJF
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Fz GslG Gsp qHynGtzy zywA IlEtpF ty Gsp otEpnGtzy c0 ) c= - Ty Gsp pKlxCwp
zy Gsp EtrsG+ ω ˆ ’%W $(-
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nwlFF zq xzopwF- QzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp CEzoHnG c0 ± c= nly mp JEtGGpy lF ”’c0 )
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Neural Network - 10 Units, Weight Decay=0.02
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o o
o o ooo oo o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. o
oo o o o ooo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. o
ooooooo oo o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
oo o
o o o ooo o
o ooooo o oo o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o oo
o o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o
oo o oo o o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o oo o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o
o oo o oo o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o oooo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o ooo o
o .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o
oooo o ooo oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o ooo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o oo o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o
ooo .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o oo o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o oo
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. ..Training
. . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.160 .....................................................
o .. .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Error:
o . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.. ..Test
.. .. .. .. Error:
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.223 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o
Bayes Error: 0.210
QTRIFD 00W3W L ypHElw ypGJzEv zy Gsp xtKGHEp pKlxCwp zq NslCGpE =- jsp

HCCpE Clypw HFpF yz JptrsG opnlA+ lyo zIpE6GF Gsp GEltytyr olGl- jsp wzJpE Clypw
HFpF JptrsG opnlA+ lyo lnstpIpF nwzFp Gz Gsp MlApF pEEzE ElGp ’mEzvpy CHECwp
mzHyolEA(- MzGs HFp Gsp FzqGxlK lnGtIlGtzy qHynGtzy lyo nEzFF,pyGEzCA pEEzE-
?// YpHElw YpGUzEvF
Yz UptrsG opnlA bptrsG opnlA

A= A=
A0 A0
B0$
B0$
B0
B=
B>
B0
B4
B5
B6
B7
B8
B0
B=
B>
B0
B4
B5
B6
B7
B8
0
0
K= K=
K0 K0
0 0
B0$
B0$
B0
B=
B>
B0
B4
B5
B6
B7
B8
B0
B=
B>
B0
B4
B5
B6
B7
B8
QTRIFD 00W4W SplG xlCF zq Gsp pFGtxlGpo JptrsGF qEzx Gsp GEltytyr zq ypHElw
ypGJzEvF qEzx QtrHEp %%-3- jsp otFCwlA ElyrpF qEzx mEtrsG rEppy ’yprlGtIp( Gz
mEtrsG Epo ’CzFtGtIp(-
FzwHGtzy- LG Gsp zHGFpG tG tF mpFG Gz FGlyolEotBp lww tyCHGF Gz slIp xply BpEz
lyo FGlyolEo opItlGtzy zyp- jstF pyFHEpF lww tyCHGF lEp GEplGpo pDHlwwA ty
Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy CEznpFF+ lyo lwwzJF zyp Gz nszzFp l xplytyrqHw Elyrp qzE
Gsp Elyozx FGlEGtyr JptrsGF- btGs FGlyolEotBpo tyCHGF+ tG tF GACtnlw Gz Glvp
Elyozx HytqzEx JptrsGF zIpE Gsp Elyrp ”}$,fiW )$,fifl-
00-4-? dHxmpE zq Stoopy kytGF lyo lApEF

RpypElwwA FCplvtyr tG tF mpGGpE Gz slIp Gzz xlyA stoopy HytGF Gsly Gzz qpJ-
btGs Gzz qpJ stoopy HytGF+ Gsp xzopw xtrsG yzG slIp pyzHrs 7pKtmtwtGA Gz
nlCGHEp Gsp yzywtyplEtGtpF ty Gsp olGl: JtGs Gzz xlyA stoopy HytGF+ Gsp
pKGEl JptrsGF nly mp FsEHyv GzJlEo BpEz tq lCCEzCEtlGp EprHwlEtBlGtzy tF
HFpo- jACtnlwwA Gsp yHxmpE zq stoopy HytGF tF FzxpJspEp ty Gsp Elyrp zq
4 Gz %$$+ JtGs Gsp yHxmpE tynEplFtyr JtGs Gsp yHxmpE zq tyCHGF lyo yHx!
mpE zq GEltytyr nlFpF- TG tF xzFG nzxxzy Gz CHG ozJy l EplFzylmwA wlErp
yHxmpE zq HytGF lyo GElty Gspx JtGs EprHwlEtBlGtzy- izxp EpFplEnspEF HFp
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp zCGtxlw yHxmpE+ mHG GstF FppxF HyypnpF!
FlEA tq nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy tF HFpo Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpE-
Nsztnp zq Gsp yHxmpE zq stoopy wlApEF tF rHtopo mA mlnvrEzHyo vyzJwporp
lyo pKCpEtxpyGlGtzy- Plns wlApE pKGElnGF qplGHEpF zq Gsp tyCHG qzE EprEpF!
Ftzy zE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy- kFp zq xHwGtCwp stoopy wlApEF lwwzJF nzyFGEHnGtzy zq
stpElEnstnlw qplGHEpF lG otΓpEpyG wpIpwF zq EpFzwHGtzy- Ly pKlxCwp zq Gsp
pΓpnGtIp HFp zq xHwGtCwp wlApEF tF rtIpy ty ipnGtzy %%-[-
00-4-4 cHwGtCwp ctytxl

jsp pEEzE qHynGtzy h’θ( tF yzynzyIpK+ CzFFpFFtyr xlyA wznlw xtytxl- LF l
EpFHwG+ Gsp ÿlw FzwHGtzy zmGltypo tF DHtGp opCpyopyG zy Gsp nsztnp zq FGlEG!
%%-[ PKlxCwp9 itxHwlGpo OlGl ?/%
tyr JptrsGF- Zyp xHFG lG wplFG GEA l yHxmpE zq Elyozx FGlEGtyr nzy¨rHEl!
GtzyF+ lyo nszzFp Gsp FzwHGtzy rtItyr wzJpFG ’CpylwtBpo( pEEzE- fEzmlmwA l
mpGGpE lCCEzlns tF Gz HFp Gsp lIpElrp CEpotnGtzyF zIpE Gsp nzwwpnGtzy zq ypG!
JzEvF lF Gsp ÿlw CEpotnGtzy ’htCwpA+ %––[(- jstF tF CEpqpElmwp Gz lIpElrtyr
Gsp JptrsGF+ Ftynp Gsp yzywtyplEtGA zq Gsp xzopw txCwtpF GslG GstF lIpElrpo
FzwHGtzy nzHwo mp DHtGp CzzE- LyzGspE lCCEzlns tF Itl mlrrtyr+ Jstns lIpE!
lrpF Gsp CEpotnGtzyF zq ypGJzEvF GEltytyr qEzx ElyozxwA CpEGHEmpo IpEFtzyF
zq Gsp GEltytyr olGl- jstF tF opFnEtmpo ty ipnGtzy ]-fi-
00-” PKlxCwp9 itxHwlGpo OlGl

bp rpypElGpo olGl qEzx GJz lootGtIp pEEzE xzopwF d ˆ q ’c( ) ε9
iHx zq FtrxztoF9 d ˆ σ’lj0 c( ) σ’lj= c( ) ε0 :

0$
∏
hlotlw9 d ˆ φ’cx ( ) ε= ,
xˆ0
SpEp c j ˆ ’c0 W c= W , , , W cC (+ plns cH mptyr l FGlyolEo RlHFFtly IlEtlGp+

JtGs C ˆ = ty Gsp ËFG xzopw+ lyo C ˆ %$ ty Gsp Fpnzyo-
QzE Gsp Ftrxzto xzopw+ l0 ˆ ’“W “(W l= ˆ ’“W }“(: qzE Gsp Elotlw xzopw+
φ’G( ˆ ’%.=π(0.= pKC’}G= .=(- MzGs ε0 lyo ε= lEp RlHFFtly pEEzEF+ JtGs
IlEtlynp nszFpy Fz GslG Gsp Ftrylw!Gz!yztFp ElGtz
alE’P’d Kc(( alE’q ’c((
ˆ ’%%-%](
alE’d } P’d Kc(( alE’ε(
tF ? ty mzGs xzopwF- bp Gzzv l GEltytyr FlxCwp zq FtBp %$$ lyo l GpFG FlxCwp
zq FtBp %$W $$$- bp ¨G ypHElw ypGJzEvF JtGs JptrsG opnlA lyo IlEtzHF yHx!
mpEF zq stoopy HytGF+ lyo EpnzEopo Gsp lIpElrp GpFG pEEzE PupFG ’d } q—’c((=
qzE plns zq %$ Elyozx FGlEGtyr JptrsGF- ZywA zyp GEltytyr FpG JlF rpy!
pElGpo+ mHG Gsp EpFHwGF lEp GACtnlw qzE ly ˜lIpElrp˙ GEltytyr FpG- jsp GpFG
pEEzEF lEp FszJy ty QtrHEp %%-[- YzGp GslG Gsp BpEz stoopy HytG xzopw EpqpEF
Gz wtyplE wplFG FDHlEpF EprEpFFtzy- jsp ypHElw ypGJzEv tF CpEqpnGwA FHtGpo Gz
Gsp FHx zq FtrxztoF xzopw+ lyo Gsp GJz!HytG xzopw ozpF CpEqzEx Gsp mpFG+
lnstpItyr ly pEEzE nwzFp Gz Gsp MlApF ElGp- ’hpnlww GslG Gsp MlApF ElGp qzE
EprEpFFtzy JtGs FDHlEpo pEEzE tF Gsp pEEzE IlEtlynp: ty Gsp ¨rHEpF+ Jp EpCzEG
GpFG pEEzE EpwlGtIp Gz Gsp MlApF pEEzE(- YzGtnp+ szJpIpE+ GslG JtGs xzEp sto!
opy HytGF+ zIpE¨GGtyr DHtnvwA nEppCF ty+ lyo JtGs Fzxp FGlEGtyr JptrsGF Gsp
xzopw ozpF JzEFp Gsly Gsp wtyplE xzopw ’BpEz stoopy HytG( xzopw- PIpy
JtGs GJz stoopy HytGF+ GJz zq Gsp Gpy FGlEGtyr JptrsG nzy¨rHElGtzyF CEz!
oHnpo EpFHwGF yz mpGGpE Gsly Gsp wtyplE xzopw+ nzyËxtyr Gsp txCzEGlynp
zq xHwGtCwp FGlEGtyr IlwHpF-
L Elotlw qHynGtzy tF ty l FpyFp Gsp xzFG otffnHwG qzE Gsp ypHElw ypG+ lF tG tF
FCspEtnlwwA FAxxpGEtn lyo JtGs yz CEpqpEEpo otEpnGtzyF- bp Fpp ty Gsp EtrsG
?/= YpHElw YpGUzEvF
Sum of Sigmoids Radial
3.0
30
25
2.5
20
Test Error
Test Error
2.0
15
10
1.5
5
1.0
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Hidden Units Number of Hidden Units
QTRIFD 00W5W MzKCwzGF zq GpFG pEEzE+ qzE FtxHwlGpo olGl pKlxCwp+ EpwlGtIp Gz
Gsp MlApF pEEzE ’mEzvpy szEtBzyGlw wtyp(- jEHp qHynGtzy tF l FHx zq GJz FtrxztoF
zy Gsp wpqG+ lyo l Elotlw qHynGtzy tF zy Gsp EtrsG- jsp GpFG pEEzE tF otFCwlApo qzE
%/ ot;pEpyG FGlEGtyr JptrsGF+ qzE l Ftyrwp stoopy wlApE ypHElw ypGJzEv JtGs Gsp
yHxmpE zq HytGF lF tyotnlGpo-
Clypw zq QtrHEp %%-[ GslG tG ozpF CzzEwA ty GstF nlFp+ JtGs Gsp GpFG pEEzE
FGlAtyr Jpww lmzIp Gsp MlApF pEEzE ’yzGp Gsp otΓpEpyG IpEGtnlw Fnlwp qEzx
Gsp wpqG Clypw(- Ty qlnG+ Ftynp l nzyFGlyG ¨G ’FHns lF Gsp FlxCwp lIpElrp(
lnstpIpF l EpwlGtIp pEEzE zq 4 ’Jspy Gsp iYh tF ?(+ Jp Fpp GslG Gsp ypHElw
ypGJzEvF CpEqzEx tynEplFtyrwA JzEFp Gsly Gsp xply-
Ty GstF pKlxCwp Jp HFpo l ¨Kpo JptrsG opnlA ClElxpGpE zq $,$$$4+ EpC!
EpFpyGtyr l xtwo lxzHyG zq EprHwlEtBlGtzy- jsp EpFHwGF ty Gsp wpqG Clypw zq
QtrHEp %%-[ FHrrpFG GslG xzEp EprHwlEtBlGtzy tF yppopo JtGs rEplGpE yHx!
mpEF zq stoopy HytGF-
Ty QtrHEp %%-fi Jp EpCplGpo Gsp pKCpEtxpyG qzE Gsp FHx zq FtrxztoF xzopw+
JtGs yz JptrsG opnlA ty Gsp wpqG Clypw+ lyo FGEzyrpE JptrsG opnlA ’λ ˆ $,%(
ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw- btGs yz JptrsG opnlA+ zIpE¨GGtyr mpnzxpF pIpy xzEp
FpIpEp qzE wlErpE yHxmpEF zq stoopy HytGF- jsp JptrsG opnlA IlwHp λ ˆ $,%
CEzoHnpF rzzo EpFHwGF qzE lww yHxmpEF zq stoopy HytGF+ lyo GspEp ozpF yzG
lCCplE Gz mp zIpE¨GGtyr lF Gsp yHxmpE zq HytGF tynEplFp- QtylwwA+ QtrHEp %%-]
FszJF Gsp GpFG pEEzE qzE l Gpy stoopy HytG ypGJzEv+ IlEAtyr Gsp JptrsG opnlA
ClElxpGpE zIpE l Jtop Elyrp- jsp IlwHp $,% tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA zCGtxlw-
Ty FHxxlEA+ GspEp lEp GJz qEpp ClElxpGpEF Gz FpwpnG9 Gsp JptrsG opnlA λ
lyo yHxmpE zq stoopy HytGF X - LF l wplEytyr FGElGprA+ zyp nzHwo ¨K ptGspE
ClElxpGpE lG Gsp IlwHp nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz Gsp wplFG nzyFGEltypo xzopw+ Gz
pyFHEp GslG Gsp xzopw tF Etns pyzHrs+ lyo HFp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Gz nszzFp
Gsp zGspE ClElxpGpE- SpEp Gsp wplFG nzyFGEltypo IlwHpF lEp BpEz JptrsG opnlA
lyo Gpy stoopy HytGF- NzxClEtyr Gsp wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp %%-fi Gz QtrHEp
%%-]+ Jp Fpp GslG Gsp GpFG pEEzE tF wpFF FpyFtGtIp Gz Gsp IlwHp zq Gsp JptrsG
%%-[ PKlxCwp9 itxHwlGpo OlGl ?/“
No Weight Decay Weight Decay=0.1
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
Test Error
Test Error
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Hidden Units Number of Hidden Units
QTRIFD 00W6W MzKCwzGF zq GpFG pEEzE+ qzE FtxHwlGpo olGl pKlxCwp+ EpwlGtIp Gz Gsp
MlApF pEEzE- jEHp qHynGtzy tF l FHx zq GJz FtrxztoF- jsp GpFG pEEzE tF otFCwlApo
qzE Gpy ot;pEpyG FGlEGtyr JptrsGF+ qzE l Ftyrwp stoopy wlApE ypHElw ypGJzEv JtGs
Gsp yHxmpE HytGF lF tyotnlGpo- jsp GJz ClypwF EpCEpFpyG yz JptrsG opnlA ’wpqG(
lyo FGEzyr JptrsG opnlA λ ˆ /,% ’EtrsG(-
Sum of Sigmoids, 10 Hidden Unit Model

2.2
2.0
1.8
Test Error
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14
Weight Decay Parameter
QTRIFD 00W7W MzKCwzGF zq GpFG pEEzE+ qzE FtxHwlGpo olGl pKlxCwp- jEHp qHynGtzy
tF l FHx zq GJz FtrxztoF- jsp GpFG pEEzE tF otFCwlApo qzE Gpy ot;pEpyG FGlEGtyr
JptrsGF+ qzE l Ftyrwp stoopy wlApE ypHElw ypGJzEv JtGs Gpy stoopy HytGF lyo JptrsG
opnlA ClElxpGpE IlwHp lF tyotnlGpo-
?/? YpHElw YpGUzEvF
QTRIFD 00W8W PKlxCwpF zq GEltytyr nlFpF qEzx eTf nzop olGl- Plns txlrp tF
l %[ × %[ ],mtG rElAFnlwp EpCEpFpyGlGtzy zq l slyoJEtGGpy otrtG-
opnlA ClElxpGpE+ lyo spynp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy zq GstF ClElxpGpE JzHwo mp

CEpqpEEpo-
00-fi PKlxCwp9 eTf Nzop OlGl

jstF pKlxCwp tF l nslElnGpE EpnzrytGtzy GlFv9 nwlFFt¨nlGtzy zq slyoJEtGGpy
yHxpElwF- jstF CEzmwpx nlCGHEpo Gsp lGGpyGtzy zq Gsp xlnstyp wplEytyr lyo
ypHElw ypGJzEv nzxxHytGA qzE xlyA AplEF+ lyo slF Epxltypo l mpynsxlEv
CEzmwpx ty Gsp ¨pwo- QtrHEp %%-– FszJF Fzxp pKlxCwpF zq yzExlwtBpo slyo!
JEtGGpy otrtGF+ lHGzxlGtnlwwA Fnlyypo qEzx pyIpwzCpF mA Gsp k-i- fzFGlw
ipEItnp- jsp zEtrtylw Fnlyypo otrtGF lEp mtylEA lyo zq otΓpEpyG FtBpF lyo
zEtpyGlGtzyF: Gsp txlrpF FszJy spEp slIp mppy opFwlyGpo lyo FtBp yzExlw!
tBpo+ EpFHwGtyr ty %[ × %[ rElAFnlwp txlrpF ’ p NHy pG lw-+ %––$(- jspFp =4[
CtKpw IlwHpF lEp HFpo lF tyCHGF Gz Gsp ypHElw ypGJzEv nwlFFt¨pE-
L mwlnv mzK ypHElw ypGJzEv tF yzG toplwwA FHtGpo Gz GstF ClGGpEy Epnzryt!
Gtzy GlFv+ ClEGwA mpnlHFp Gsp CtKpw EpCEpFpyGlGtzy zq Gsp txlrpF wlnv npEGlty
tyIlEtlynpF ’FHns lF Fxlww EzGlGtzyF zq Gsp txlrp(- NzyFpDHpyGwA plEwA lG!
GpxCGF JtGs ypHElw ypGJzEvF Atpwopo xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy ElGpF lEzHyo ?,40
zy IlEtzHF pKlxCwpF zq Gsp CEzmwpx- Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp FszJ Fzxp zq Gsp
CtzyppEtyr pΓzEGF Gz slyonElqG Gsp ypHElw ypGJzEv Gz zIpEnzxp Fzxp GspFp
op¨ntpyntpF ’ p NHy+ %–]–(+ Jstns HwGtxlGpwA wpo Gz Gsp FGlGp zq Gsp lEG ty
ypHElw ypGJzEv CpEqzExlynp’ p NHy pG lw-+ %––](0 -
LwGszHrs nHEEpyG otrtG olGlFpGF slIp GpyF zq GszHFlyoF zq GEltytyr lyo
GpFG pKlxCwpF+ Gsp FlxCwp FtBp spEp tF opwtmpElGpwA xzopFG ty zEopE Gz px!
0 jsp ¨rHEpF lyo GlmwpF ty GstF pKlxCwp JpEp EpnEplGpo qEzx p NHy ’%–]–(-
%%-fi PKlxCwp9 eTf Nzop OlGl ?/4
10
10 4x4
10
12
8x8
16x16 16x16 16x16

Net-1 Net-2 Net-3
Local Connectivity
10 10
4x4 4x4x4
8x8x2 8x8x2
16x16 16x16
Net-4 Shared Weights

Net-5
QTRIFD 00W0.W LEnstGpnGHEp zq Gsp 6Ip ypGJzEvF HFpo ty Gsp eTf nzop pKlxCwp-
CslFtBp Gsp pΓpnGF- jsp pKlxCwpF JpEp zmGltypo mA Fnlyytyr Fzxp lnGHlw
slyo!oElJy otrtGF+ lyo Gspy rpypElGtyr lootGtzylw txlrpF mA Elyozx szE!
tBzyGlw FstqGF- OpGltwF xlA mp qzHyo ty p NHy ’%–]–(- jspEp lEp “=$ otrtGF
ty Gsp GEltytyr FpG+ lyo %[$ ty Gsp GpFG FpG-
QtIp otΓpEpyG ypGJzEvF JpEp ¨G Gz Gsp olGl9
YpG!%9 Yz stoopy wlApE+ pDHtIlwpyG Gz xHwGtyzxtlw wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy-
YpG!=9 Zyp stoopy wlApE+ %= stoopy HytGF qHwwA nzyypnGpo-
YpG!“9 jJz stoopy wlApEF wznlwwA nzyypnGpo-
YpG!?9 jJz stoopy wlApEF+ wznlwwA nzyypnGpo JtGs JptrsG FslEtyr-
YpG!49 jJz stoopy wlApEF+ wznlwwA nzyypnGpo+ GJz wpIpwF zq JptrsG FslEtyr-
jspFp lEp opCtnGpo ty QtrHEp %%-%$- YpG!% qzE pKlxCwp slF =4[ tyCHGF+ zyp
plns qzE Gsp %[ × %[ tyCHG CtKpwF+ lyo Gpy zHGCHG HytGF qzE plns zq Gsp otrtGF
$8–- jsp CEpotnGpo IlwHp q—v ’K( EpCEpFpyGF Gsp pFGtxlGpo CEzmlmtwtGA GslG
ly txlrp K slF otrtG nwlFF v+ qzE v ˆ $W %W =W , , , W –-
?/[ YpHElw YpGUzEvF
100
Net-5
Net-4
90
% Correct on Test Data
Net-3
Net-2
80
Net-1
70
60
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Training Epochs
QTRIFD 00W00W jpFG CpEqzExlynp nHEIpF+ lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp yHxmpE zq GElty,

tyr pCznsF+ qzE Gsp 6Ip ypGJzEvF zq jlmwp %%-% lCCwtpo Gz Gsp eTf nzop olGl-
’ p NHy+ %–fl–(
jsp ypGJzEvF lww slIp Ftrxztolw zHGCHG HytGF+ lyo JpEp lww ¨G JtGs Gsp
FHx!zq!FDHlEpF pEEzE qHynGtzy- jsp ËFG ypGJzEv slF yz stoopy wlApE+ lyo
spynp tF yplEwA pDHtIlwpyG Gz l wtyplE xHwGtyzxtlw EprEpFFtzy xzopw ’PKpE!
ntFp %%-?(- YpG!= tF l Ftyrwp stoopy wlApE ypGJzEv JtGs %= stoopy HytGF+ zq
Gsp vtyo opFnEtmpo lmzIp-
jsp GEltytyr FpG pEEzE qzE lww zq Gsp ypGJzEvF JlF $0+ Ftynp ty lww nlFpF
GspEp lEp xzEp ClElxpGpEF Gsly GEltytyr zmFpEIlGtzyF- jsp pIzwHGtzy zq Gsp
GpFG pEEzE oHEtyr Gsp GEltytyr pCznsF tF FszJy ty QtrHEp %%-%%- jsp wtyplE
ypGJzEv ’YpG!%( FGlEGF Gz zIpE¨G qltEwA DHtnvwA+ Jstwp GpFG CpEqzExlynp zq
Gsp zGspEF wpIpw zΓ lG FHnnpFFtIpwA FHCpEtzE IlwHpF-
jsp zGspE GsEpp ypGJzEvF slIp lootGtzylw qplGHEpF Jstns opxzyFGElGp
Gsp CzJpE lyo 7pKtmtwtGA zq Gsp ypHElw ypGJzEv ClElotrx- jspA tyGEzoHnp
nzyFGEltyGF zy Gsp ypGJzEv+ ylGHElw qzE Gsp CEzmwpx lG slyo+ Jstns lwwzJ
qzE xzEp nzxCwpK nzyypnGtItGA mHG qpJpE ClElxpGpEF-
YpG!“ HFpF wznlw nzyypnGtItGA9 GstF xplyF GslG plns stoopy HytG tF nzy!
ypnGpo Gz zywA l Fxlww ClGns zq HytGF ty Gsp wlApE mpwzJ- Ty Gsp ËFG stoopy
wlApE ’ly ] × ] lEElA(+ plns HytG GlvpF tyCHGF qEzx l “× “ ClGns zq Gsp tyCHG
wlApE: qzE HytGF ty Gsp ËFG stoopy wlApE GslG lEp zyp HytG lClEG+ GsptE EpnpC!
GtIp ¨pwoF zIpEwlC mA zyp EzJ zE nzwHxy+ lyo spynp lEp GJz CtKpwF lClEG-
Ty Gsp Fpnzyo stoopy wlApE+ tyCHGF lEp qEzx l 4 × 4 ClGns+ lyo lrlty HytGF
GslG lEp zyp HytG lClEG slIp EpnpCGtIp ¨pwoF GslG lEp GJz HytGF lClEG- jsp
JptrsGF qzE lww zGspE nzyypnGtzyF lEp FpG Gz BpEz- znlw nzyypnGtItGA xlvpF
plns HytG EpFCzyFtmwp qzE pKGElnGtyr wznlw qplGHEpF qEzx Gsp wlApE mpwzJ+ lyo
%%-fi PKlxCwp9 eTf Nzop OlGl ?/fi
uLM D 00W0W jpFG FpG CpEqzExlynp zq 6Ip ot;pEpyG ypHElw ypGJzEvF zy l slyo,
JEtGGpy otrtG nwlFFt6nlGtzy pKlxCwp ’ p NHy+ %–fl–(-
YpGJzEv LEnstGpnGHEp tyvF bptrsGF 0 NzEEpnG

YpG!%9 ityrwp wlApE ypGJzEv =4fi$ =4fi$ ]$-$0
YpG!=9 jJz wlApE ypGJzEv “=%? “=%? ]fi-$0
YpG!“9 znlwwA nzyypnGpo %==[ %==[ ]]-40
YpG!?9 NzyFGEltypo ypGJzEv % ==[[ %%“= –?-$0
YpG!49 NzyFGEltypo ypGJzEv = 4%–? %$[$ –]-?0
EpoHnpF nzyFtopElmwA Gsp GzGlw yHxmpE zq JptrsGF- btGs xlyA xzEp stoopy
HytGF Gsly YpG!=+ YpG!“ slF qpJpE wtyvF lyo spynp JptrsGF ’%==[ IF- “=%?(+
lyo lnstpIpF FtxtwlE CpEqzExlynp-
YpG!? lyo YpG!4 slIp wznlw nzyypnGtItGA JtGs FslEpo JptrsGF- Lww HytGF
ty l wznlw qplGHEp xlC CpEqzEx Gsp Flxp zCpElGtzy zy otΓpEpyG ClEGF zq Gsp
txlrp+ lnstpIpo mA FslEtyr Gsp Flxp JptrsGF- jsp ËFG stoopy wlApE zq YpG!
? slF GJz ]×] lEElAF+ lyo plns HytG GlvpF tyCHG qEzx l “×“ ClGns uHFG wtvp
ty YpG!“- SzJpIpE+ plns zq Gsp HytGF ty l Ftyrwp ] × ] qplGHEp xlC FslEp Gsp
Flxp FpG zq ytyp JptrsGF ’mHG slIp GsptE zJy mtlF ClElxpGpE(- jstF qzEnpF
Gsp pKGElnGpo qplGHEpF ty otΓpEpyG ClEGF zq Gsp txlrp Gz mp nzxCHGpo mA
Gsp Flxp wtyplE qHynGtzylw+ lyo nzyFpDHpyGwA GspFp ypGJzEvF lEp FzxpGtxpF
vyzJy lF nzyIzwHGtzylw ypGJzEvF- jsp Fpnzyo stoopy wlApE zq YpG!? slF
yz JptrsG FslEtyr+ lyo tF Gsp Flxp lF ty YpG!“- jsp rElotpyG zq Gsp pEEzE
qHynGtzy h JtGs EpFCpnG Gz l FslEpo JptrsG tF Gsp FHx zq Gsp rElotpyGF zq
h JtGs EpFCpnG Gz plns nzyypnGtzy nzyGEzwwpo mA Gsp JptrsGF ty DHpFGtzy-
jlmwp %%-% rtIpF Gsp yHxmpE zq wtyvF+ Gsp yHxmpE zq JptrsGF lyo Gsp
zCGtxlw GpFG CpEqzExlynp qzE plns zq Gsp ypGJzEvF- bp Fpp GslG YpG!? slF
xzEp wtyvF mHG qpJpE JptrsGF Gsly YpG!“+ lyo FHCpEtzE GpFG CpEqzExlynp-
YpG!4 slF qzHE ? × ? qplGHEp xlCF ty Gsp Fpnzyo stoopy wlApE+ plns HytG
nzyypnGpo Gz l 4 × 4 wznlw ClGns ty Gsp wlApE mpwzJ- bptrsGF lEp FslEpo
ty plns zq GspFp qplGHEp xlCF- bp Fpp GslG YpG!4 ozpF Gsp mpFG+ slItyr
pEEzEF zq zywA %-[0+ nzxClEpo Gz %“0 qzE Gsp ˜Ilytwwl˙ ypGJzEv YpG!=-
jsp nwpIpE opFtry zq ypGJzEv YpG!4+ xzGtIlGpo mA Gsp qlnG GslG qplGHEpF zq
slyoJEtGtyr FGAwp FszHwo lCCplE ty xzEp Gsly zyp ClEG zq l otrtG+ JlF Gsp
EpFHwG zq xlyA CpEFzy AplEF zq pKCpEtxpyGlGtzy- jstF lyo FtxtwlE ypGJzEvF
rlIp mpGGpE CpEqzExlynp zy eTf nzop CEzmwpxF Gsly lyA zGspE wplEytyr
xpGszo lG GslG Gtxp ’plEwA %––$F(- jstF pKlxCwp lwFz FszJF GslG ypHElw
ypGJzEvF lEp yzG l qHwwA lHGzxlGtn Gzzw+ lF GspA lEp FzxpGtxpF loIpEGtFpo-
LF JtGs lww FGlGtFGtnlw xzopwF+ FHmupnG xlGGpE vyzJwporp nly lyo FszHwo mp
HFpo Gz txCEzIp GsptE CpEqzExlynp-
jstF ypGJzEv JlF wlGpE zHGCpEqzExpo mA Gsp GlyrpyG otFGlynp lCCEzlns
’itxlEo pG lw-+ %––“( opFnEtmpo ty ipnGtzy %“-“-“+ Jstns pKCwtntGwA tynzECz!
ElGpF ylGHElw lffyp tyIlEtlynpF- LG GstF CztyG Gsp otrtG EpnzrytGtzy olGlFpGF
mpnzxp GpFG mpoF qzE pIpEA ypJ wplEytyr CEznpoHEp+ lyo EpFplEnspEF JzEvpo
?/] YpHElw YpGUzEvF
slEo Gz oEtIp ozJy Gsp pEEzE ElGpF- LF zq GstF JEtGtyr+ Gsp mpFG pEEzE ElGpF zy
l wlErp olGlmlFp ’[$W $$$ GEltytyr+ %$W $$$ GpFG zmFpEIlGtzyF(+ opEtIpo qEzx
FGlyolEo YTij= olGlmlFpF+ JpEp EpCzEGpo Gz mp Gsp qzwwzJtyr9 ’ p NHy pG
lw-+ %––](9
| %,%0 qzE GlyrpyG otFGlynp JtGs l %!yplEpFG yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨pE ’ipn!

Gtzy %“-“-“(:
| $,]0 qzE l oprEpp!– CzwAyzxtlw iaX ’ipnGtzy %=-“(:
| $,]0 qzE pdpG,4+ l xzEp nzxCwpK IpEFtzy zq Gsp nzyIzwHGtzylw ypG!

JzEv opFnEtmpo spEp:
| $,fi0 qzE mzzFGpo pdpG,?- MzzFGtyr tF opFnEtmpo ty NslCGpE ]- pdpG,

? tF l CEpopnpFFzE zq pdpG,4-
p NHy pG lw- ’%––]( EpCzEG l xHns wlErpE Glmwp zq CpEqzExlynp EpFHwGF+ lyo
tG tF pItopyG GslG xlyA rEzHCF slIp mppy JzEvtyr IpEA slEo Gz mEtyr GspFp
GpFG pEEzE ElGpF ozJy- jspA EpCzEG l FGlyolEo pEEzE zq $,%0 zy Gsp pEEzE
pFGtxlGpF+ Jstns tF mlFpo zy l mtyzxtlw lIpElrp JtGs Y ˆ %$W $$$ lyo
C ≈ $,$%- jstF txCwtpF GslG pEEzE ElGpF JtGsty $,%1$,=0 zq zyp lyzGspE
lEp FGlGtFGtnlwwA pDHtIlwpyG- hplwtFGtnlwwA Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzE tF pIpy strspE+
Ftynp Gsp GpFG olGl slF mppy txCwtntGwA HFpo ty Gsp GHytyr zq Gsp IlEtzHF
CEznpoHEpF-
00-7 OtFnHFFtzy
MzGs CEzupnGtzy CHEFHtG EprEpFFtzy lyo ypHElw ypGJzEvF Glvp yzywtyplE qHyn!
GtzyF zq wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF ’õpEtIpo qplGHEpF˙( zq Gsp tyCHGF- jstF tF l
CzJpEqHw lyo IpEA rpypElw lCCEzlns qzE EprEpFFtzy lyo nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ lyo
slF mppy FszJy Gz nzxCpGp Jpww JtGs Gsp mpFG wplEytyr xpGszoF zy xlyA
CEzmwpxF-
jspFp GzzwF lEp pFCpntlwwA pΓpnGtIp ty CEzmwpxF JtGs l strs Ftrylw!Gz!yztFp
ElGtz lyo FpGGtyrF JspEp CEpotnGtzy JtGszHG tyGpECEpGlGtzy tF Gsp rzlw- jspA
lEp wpFF pΓpnGtIp qzE CEzmwpxF JspEp Gsp rzlw tF Gz opFnEtmp Gsp CsAFtnlw CEz!
npFF GslG rpypElGpo Gsp olGl lyo Gsp EzwpF zq tyotItoHlw tyCHGF- Plns tyCHG
pyGpEF tyGz Gsp xzopw ty xlyA CwlnpF+ ty l yzywtyplE qlFstzy- izxp lHGszEF
’StyGzy+ %–]–( CwzG l otlrElx zq Gsp pFGtxlGpo JptrsGF tyGz plns stoopy
HytG+ Gz GEA Gz HyopEFGlyo Gsp qplGHEp GslG plns HytG tF pKGElnGtyr- jstF
tF wtxtGpo szJpIpE mA Gsp wlnv zq topyGt¨lmtwtGA zq Gsp ClElxpGpE IpnGzEF
αx W x ˆ %W , , , W X - ZqGpy GspEp lEp FzwHGtzyF JtGs αx FClyytyr Gsp Flxp
wtyplE FClnp lF Gsp zypF qzHyo oHEtyr GEltytyr+ rtItyr CEpotnGpo IlwHpF GslG
= jsp dlGtzylw TyFGtGHGp zq iGlyolEoF lyo jpnsyzwzrA xltyGlty wlErp olGlmlFpF) ty!
nwHotyr slyoJEtGGpy nslElnGpE olGlmlFpF: shhC9..vvv-ytFh-rzT.FEo.-

%%-– MlApFtly YpHElw YpGF lyo Gsp YTfi =//“ Nslwwpyrp ?/–
lEp EzHrswA Gsp Flxp- izxp lHGszEF FHrrpFG nlEEAtyr zHG l CEtyntClw nzx!
CzypyG lylwAFtF zq GspFp JptrsGF+ Gz GEA Gz ÿo ly tyGpECEpGlmwp FzwHGtzy- Ty
rpypElw+ Gsp otffnHwGA zq tyGpECEpGtyr GspFp xzopwF slF wtxtGpo GsptE HFp ty
¨pwoF wtvp xpotntyp+ JspEp tyGpECEpGlGtzy zq Gsp xzopw tF IpEA txCzEGlyG-
jspEp slF mppy l rEplG oplw zq EpFplEns zy Gsp GEltytyr zq ypHElw ypG!
JzEvF- kywtvp xpGszoF wtvp NLhj lyo XLhi+ ypHElw ypGJzEvF lEp FxzzGs
qHynGtzyF zq Eplw!IlwHpo ClElxpGpEF- jstF qlntwtGlGpF Gsp opIpwzCxpyG zq
MlApFtly tyqpEpynp qzE GspFp xzopwF- jsp ypKG FpnGtzyF otFnHFFpF l FHnnpFF!
qHw MlApFtly txCwpxpyGlGtzy zq ypHElw ypGJzEvF-
00-– MlApFtly dpHElw dpGF lyo Gsp dTfi 1..“

Nslwwpyrp
L nwlFFt¨nlGtzy nzxCpGtGtzy JlF spwo ty =$$“+ ty Jstns Ïp wlmpwpo GElty!
tyr olGlFpGF JpEp CEzItopo Gz ClEGtntClyGF- TG JlF zErlytBpo qzE l YpHElw
TyqzExlGtzy fEznpFFtyr iAFGpxF ’YTfi( JzEvFszC- Plns zq Gsp olGl FpGF
nzyFGtGHGpo l GJz!nwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpxF+ JtGs otΓpEpyG FtBpF lyo qEzx
l IlEtpGA zq ozxltyF ’Fpp jlmwp %%-=(- QplGHEp xplFHEpxpyGF qzE l Ilwtol!
Gtzy olGlFpG JpEp lwFz lIltwlmwp-
flEGtntClyGF opIpwzCpo lyo lCCwtpo FGlGtFGtnlw wplEytyr CEznpoHEpF Gz
xlvp CEpotnGtzyF zy Gsp olGlFpGF+ lyo nzHwo FHmxtG CEpotnGtzyF Gz l Jpm!
FtGp zy Gsp IlwtolGtzy FpG qzE l CpEtzo zq %= JppvF- btGs GstF qppomlnv+
ClEGtntClyGF JpEp Gspy lFvpo Gz FHmxtG CEpotnGtzyF qzE l FpClElGp GpFG FpG
lyo GspA EpnptIpo GsptE EpFHwGF- QtylwwA+ Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF qzE Gsp IlwtolGtzy
FpG JpEp EpwplFpo lyo ClEGtntClyGF slo zyp Jppv Gz GElty GsptE lwrzEtGsxF
zy Gsp nzxmtypo GEltytyr lyo IlwtolGtzy FpGF+ lyo FHmxtG GsptE ÿlw CEp!
otnGtzyF Gz Gsp nzxCpGtGtzy JpmFtGp- L GzGlw zq fi4 rEzHCF ClEGtntClGpo+ JtGs
=$ lyo %[ pIpyGHlwwA xlvtyr FHmxtFFtzyF zy Gsp IlwtolGtzy lyo GpFG FpGF+
EpFCpnGtIpwA-
jspEp JlF ly pxCslFtF zy qplGHEp pKGElnGtzy ty Gsp nzxCpGtGtzy- LEGt!
¨ntlw ˜CEzmpF˙ JpEp loopo Gz Gsp olGl9 GspFp lEp yztFp qplGHEpF JtGs otF!
GEtmHGtzyF EpFpxmwtyr Gsp Eplw qplGHEpF mHG tyopCpyopyG zq Gsp nwlFF wlmpwF-
jsp CpEnpyGlrp zq CEzmpF GslG JpEp loopo Gz plns olGlFpG+ EpwlGtIp Gz Gsp
GzGlw FpG zq qplGHEpF+ tF FszJy zy jlmwp %%-=- jsHF plns wplEytyr lwrzEtGsx
slo Gz ¨rHEp zHG l JlA zq topyGtqAtyr Gsp CEzmpF lyo ozJyJptrsGtyr zE
pwtxtylGtyr Gspx-
L yHxmpE zq xpGEtnF JpEp HFpo Gz pIlwHlGp Gsp pyGEtpF+ tynwHotyr Gsp
CpEnpyGlrp nzEEpnG zy Gsp GpFG FpG+ Gsp lEpl HyopE Gsp hZN nHEIp+ lyo l
nzxmtypo FnzEp GslG nzxClEpo plns CltE zq nwlFFt¨pEF splo!Gz!splo- jsp
EpFHwGF zq Gsp nzxCpGtGtzy lEp IpEA tyGpEpFGtyr lyo lEp opGltwpo ty RHAzy pG
lw- ’=$$[(- jsp xzFG yzGlmwp EpFHwG9 Gsp pyGEtpF zq Yplw lyo eslyr ’=$$[(
JpEp Gsp nwplE zIpElww JtyypEF- Ty Gsp ÿlw nzxCpGtGtzy GspA ÿtFspo ËFG
?%/ YpHElw YpGUzEvF
uLM D 00W1W YTfi =//“ nslwwpyrp olGl FpGF- jsp nzwHxy wlmpwpo C tF Gsp yHxmpE
zq qplGHEpF- QzE Gsp OzEzGspl olGlFpG Gsp qplGHEpF lEp mtylEA- Yrf + YTlk lyo Yrp
lEp Gsp yHxmpE zq GEltytyr+ IlwtolGtzy lyo GpFG nlFpF+ EpFCpnGtIpwA
elGlFpG eBxlty QplGHEp C fpEnpyG YRq YTlk YRp
uACp fEBmpF
LEnpyp XlFF FCpnGEBxpGEA epyFp 0$+$$$ ˜$ 0$$ 0$$ fi$$
epKGpE upKG nwlFFt6nlGtBy iClEFp =$+$$$ 4$ ˜$$ ˜$$ =$$$
eBEBGspl eEHr otFnBIpEA iClEFp 0$$+$$$ 4$ ]$$ ˜4$ ]$$
RtFpGGp etrtG EpnBrytGtBy epyFp 4$$$ ˜$ [$$$ 0$$$ [4$$
XlopwBy LEGt6ntlw epyFp 4$$ 8[ =$$$ [$$ 0]$$
ty GsEpp zq Gsp Ïp olGlFpGF+ lyo JpEp 4Gs lyo fiGs zy Gsp Epxltytyr GJz
olGlFpGF-
Ty GsptE Jtyytyr pyGEtpF+ Yplw lyo eslyr ’=$$[( HFpo l FpEtpF zq CEp!
CEznpFFtyr qplGHEp!FpwpnGtzy FGpCF+ qzwwzJpo mA MlApFtly ypHElw ypGJzEvF+
OtEtnswpG otΓHFtzy GEppF+ lyo nzxmtylGtzyF zq GspFp xpGszoF- SpEp Jp qznHF
zywA zy Gsp MlApFtly ypHElw ypGJzEv lCCEzlns+ lyo GEA Gz otFnpEy Jstns
lFCpnGF zq GsptE lCCEzlns JpEp txCzEGlyG qzE tGF FHnnpFF- bp EpEHy GsptE
CEzrElxF lyo nzxClEp Gsp EpFHwGF Gz mzzFGpo ypHElw ypGJzEvF lyo mzzFGpo
GEppF+ lyo zGspE EpwlGpo xpGszoF-
00-–-0 MlApF) MzzFGtyr lyo Mlrrtyr

pG HF ËFG EpItpJ mEtp7A Gsp MlApFtly lCCEzlns Gz tyqpEpynp lyo tGF lCCwt!
nlGtzy Gz ypHElw ypGJzEvF- RtIpy GEltytyr olGl cGE W AGE + Jp lFFHxp l Flx!
Cwtyr xzopw JtGs ClElxpGpEF θ: Yplw lyo eslyr ’=$$[( HFp l GJz!stoopy!
wlApE ypHElw ypGJzEv+ JtGs zHGCHG yzopF Gsp nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF fE’d KcW θ(
qzE Gsp mtylEA zHGnzxpF- RtIpy l CEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy fE’θ(+ Gsp CzFGpEtzE
otFGEtmHGtzy qzE Gsp ClElxpGpEF tF
fE’θ(fE’AGE KcGE W θ(
fE’θKcGE W AGE ( ˆ B ’%%-%–(
fE’θ(fE’AGE KcGE W θ(oθ
QzE l GpFG nlFp JtGs qplGHEpF cypk + Gsp CEpotnGtIp otFGEtmHGtzy qzE Gsp
wlmpw dypk tF
∫
fE’dypk Kcypk W cGE W AGE ( ˆ fE’dypk Kcypk W θ(fE’θKcGE W AGE (oθ ’%%-=$(
’n-q- pDHlGtzy ]-=?(- itynp Gsp tyGprElw ty ’%%-=$( tF tyGElnGlmwp+ FzCstFGtnlGpo

XlEvzI Nslty XzyGp NlEwz ’XNXN( xpGszoF lEp HFpo Gz FlxCwp qEzx Gsp
CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy fE’dypk Kcypk W cGE W AGE (- L qpJ sHyoEpo IlwHpF θ lEp
rpypElGpo lyo Gspy l FtxCwp lIpElrp zq GspFp IlwHpF pFGtxlGpF Gsp tyGprElw-
Yplw lyo eslyr ’=$$[( HFp otΓHFp RlHFFtly CEtzEF qzE lww zq Gsp ClElxp!
GpEF- jsp ClEGtnHwlE XNXN lCCEzlns GslG JlF HFpo tF nlwwpo sAmEto XzyGp
NlEwz+ lyo xlA mp txCzEGlyG qzE Gsp FHnnpFF zq Gsp xpGszo- TG tynwHopF
ly lHKtwtlEA xzxpyGHx IpnGzE lyo txCwpxpyGF SlxtwGzytly oAylxtnF ty
Jstns Gsp CzGpyGtlw qHynGtzy tF Gsp GlErpG opyFtGA- jstF tF ozyp Gz lIzto
%%-– MlApFtly YpHElw YpGF lyo Gsp YTfi =//“ Nslwwpyrp ?%%
Elyozx Jlwv mpslItzE: Gsp FHnnpFFtIp nlyotolGpF xzIp lnEzFF Gsp FlxCwp
FClnp ty wlErpE FGpCF- jspA Gpyo Gz mp wpFF nzEEpwlGpo lyo spynp nzyIpErp
Gz Gsp GlErpG otFGEtmHGtzy xzEp ElCtowA-
Yplw lyo eslyr ’=$$[( lwFz GEtpo otΓpEpyG qzExF zq CEp!CEznpFFtyr zq Gsp
qplGHEpF9
%- HytIlEtlGp FnEppytyr HFtyr G!GpFGF+ lyo
=- lHGzxlGtn EpwpIlynp opGpExtylGtzy-
Ty Gsp wlGGpE xpGszo ’LhO(+ Gsp JptrsGF ’nzpffntpyGF( qzE Gsp uGs qplGHEp
Gz plns zq Gsp ËFG stoopy wlApE HytGF lww FslEp l nzxxzy CEtzE IlEtlynp
σH= + lyo CEtzE xply BpEz- jsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzyF qzE plns IlEtlynp σH=
lEp nzxCHGpo+ lyo Gsp qplGHEpF JszFp CzFGpEtzE IlEtlynp nzynpyGElGpF zy
Fxlww IlwHpF lEp otFnlEopo-
jspEp lEp GsHF GsEpp xlty qplGHEpF zq GstF lCCEzlns GslG nzHwo mp tx!
CzEGlyG qzE tGF FHnnpFF9
’l( Gsp qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy lyo CEp!CEznpFFtyr+
’m( Gsp ypHElw ypGJzEv xzopw+ lyo
’n( Gsp MlApFtly tyqpEpynp qzE Gsp xzopw HFtyr XNXN-
LnnzEotyr Gz Yplw lyo eslyr ’=$$[(+ qplGHEp FnEppytyr ty ’l( tF nlEEtpo

zHG CHEpwA qzE nzxCHGlGtzylw pffntpynA: Gsp XNXN CEznpoHEp tF FwzJ JtGs
l wlErp yHxmpE zq qplGHEpF- jspEp tF yz yppo Gz HFp qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy Gz lIzto
zIpE¨GGtyr- jsp CzFGpEtzE lIpElrp ’%%-=$( GlvpF nlEp zq GstF lHGzxlGtnlwwA-
bp JzHwo wtvp Gz HyopEFGlyo Gsp EplFzyF qzE Gsp FHnnpFF zq Gsp MlApFtly
xpGszo- Ty zHE ItpJ+ CzJpE zq xzopEy MlApFtly xpGszoF ozpF yzG wtp ty
GsptE HFp lF l qzExlw tyqpEpynp CEznpoHEp: xzFG CpzCwp JzHwo yzG mpwtpIp
GslG Gsp CEtzEF ty l strs!otxpyFtzylw+ nzxCwpK ypHElw ypGJzEv xzopw lEp
lnGHlwwA nzEEpnG- hlGspE Gsp MlApFtly#XNXN lCCEzlns rtIpF ly pffntpyG
JlA zq FlxCwtyr Gsp EpwpIlyG ClEGF zq xzopw FClnp+ lyo Gspy lIpElrtyr Gsp
CEpotnGtzyF qzE Gsp strs!CEzmlmtwtGA xzopwF-
Mlrrtyr lyo mzzFGtyr lEp yzy!MlApFtly CEznpoHEpF GslG slIp Fzxp Ftxt!
wlEtGA Gz XNXN ty l MlApFtly xzopw- jsp MlApFtly lCCEzlns ¨KpF Gsp olGl
lyo CpEGHEmF Gsp ClElxpGpEF+ lnnzEotyr Gz nHEEpyG pFGtxlGp zq Gsp CzFGp!
EtzE otFGEtmHGtzy- Mlrrtyr CpEGHEmF Gsp olGl ty ly t-t-o qlFstzy lyo Gspy
Ep!pFGtxlGpF Gsp xzopw Gz rtIp l ypJ FpG zq xzopw ClElxpGpEF- LG Gsp pyo+
l FtxCwp lIpElrp zq Gsp xzopw CEpotnGtzyF qEzx otΓpEpyG mlrrpo FlxCwpF tF
nzxCHGpo- MzzFGtyr tF FtxtwlE Gz mlrrtyr+ mHG ¨GF l xzopw GslG tF lootGtIp
ty Gsp xzopwF zq plns tyotItoHlw mlFp wplEypE+ Jstns lEp wplEypo HFtyr yzy
t-t-o- FlxCwpF- bp nly JEtGp lww zq GspFp xzopwF ty Gsp qzEx
∑
q—’Kypk ( ˆ Jℓ P’dypk KKypk W θ—ℓ ( ’%%-=%(
ℓˆ0
?%= YpHElw YpGUzEvF
Ty lww nlFpF Gsp θ—ℓ lEp l wlErp nzwwpnGtzy zq xzopw ClElxpGpEF- QzE Gsp
MlApFtly xzopw Gsp Jℓ ˆ %. + lyo Gsp lIpElrp pFGtxlGpF Gsp CzFGpEtzE
xply ’%%-=%( mA FlxCwtyr θℓ qEzx Gsp CzFGpEtzE otFGEtmHGtzy- QzE mlrrtyr+
Jℓ ˆ %. lF Jpww+ lyo Gsp θ—ℓ lEp Gsp ClElxpGpEF Ep¨G Gz mzzGFGElC Ep!
FlxCwpF zq Gsp GEltytyr olGl- QzE mzzFGtyr+ Gsp JptrsGF lEp lww pDHlw Gz
%+ mHG Gsp θ—ℓ lEp GACtnlwwA nszFpy ty l yzyElyozx FpDHpyGtlw qlFstzy Gz
nzyFGlyGwA txCEzIp Gsp ¨G-
00-–-1 fpEqzExlynp NzxClEtFzyF

MlFpo zy Gsp FtxtwlEtGtpF lmzIp+ Jp opntopo Gz nzxClEp MlApFtly ypHElw
ypGJzEvF Gz mzzFGpo GEppF+ mzzFGpo ypHElw ypGJzEvF+ Elyozx qzEpFGF lyo
mlrrpo ypHElw ypGJzEvF zy Gsp Ïp olGlFpGF ty jlmwp %%-=- Mlrrtyr lyo
mzzFGtyr zq ypHElw ypGJzEvF lEp yzG xpGszoF GslG Jp slIp CEpItzHFwA HFpo
ty zHE JzEv- bp opntopo Gz GEA Gspx spEp+ mpnlHFp zq Gsp FHnnpFF zq MlApFtly
ypHElw ypGJzEvF ty GstF nzxCpGtGtzy+ lyo Gsp rzzo CpEqzExlynp zq mlrrtyr
lyo mzzFGtyr JtGs GEppF- bp lwFz qpwG GslG mA mlrrtyr lyo mzzFGtyr ypHElw
ypGF+ Jp nzHwo lFFpFF mzGs Gsp nsztnp zq xzopw lF Jpww lF Gsp xzopw FplEns
FGElGprA-
SpEp lEp Gsp opGltwF zq Gsp wplEytyr xpGszoF GslG JpEp nzxClEpo9
MlApFtly ypHElw ypGF- jsp EpFHwGF spEp lEp Glvpy qEzx Yplw lyo eslyr
’=$$[(+ HFtyr GsptE MlApFtly lCCEzlns Gz ¨GGtyr ypHElw ypGJzEvF- jsp
xzopwF slo GJz stoopy wlApEF zq =$ lyo ] HytGF- bp Ep!Ely Fzxp
ypGJzEvF qzE Gtxtyr CHECzFpF zywA-
MzzFGpo GEppF- bp HFpo Gsp rmK Clnvlrp ’IpEFtzy %-4!fi( ty Gsp h wlyrHlrp-
jEpp opCGs lyo FsEtyvlrp qlnGzEF IlEtpo qEzx olGlFpG Gz olGlFpG- bp
nzyFtFGpyGwA mlrrpo ]$0 zq Gsp olGl lG plns mzzFGtyr tGpElGtzy ’Gsp
opqlHwG tF 4$0(- isEtyvlrp JlF mpGJppy $-$$% lyo $-%- jEpp opCGs JlF
mpGJppy = lyo –-
MzzFGpo ypHElw ypGJzEvF- itynp mzzFGtyr tF GACtnlwwA xzFG pΓpnGtIp JtGs

˜Jplv˙ wplEypEF+ Jp mzzFGpo l Ftyrwp stoopy wlApE ypHElw ypGJzEv JtGs
GJz zE qzHE HytGF+ ¨G JtGs Gsp yypR Clnvlrp ’IpEFtzy fi-=!“[( ty h-
hlyozx qzEpFGF- bp HFpo Gsp h Clnvlrp ElyozKgzEpFR ’IpEFtzy ?-4!%[(

JtGs opqlHwG FpGGtyrF qzE Gsp ClElxpGpEF-
Mlrrpo ypHElw ypGJzEvF- bp HFpo Gsp Flxp lEnstGpnGHEp lF ty Gsp MlApFtly

ypHElw ypGJzEv lmzIp ’GJz stoopy wlApEF zq =$ lyo ] HytGF(+ ¨G HFtyr
mzGs Yplw&F N wlyrHlrp Clnvlrp ˜QwpKtmwp MlApFtly Xzopwtyr˙ ’=$$?!
%%!%$ EpwplFp(+ lyo XlGwlm ypHElw!ypG GzzwmzK ’IpEFtzy 4-%(-
%%-– MlApFtly YpHElw YpGF lyo Gsp YTfi =//“ Nslwwpyrp ?%“
Univariate Screened Features ARD Reduced Features
Bayesian neural nets

boosted trees
boosted neural nets
random forests
bagged neural networks
25
25
Test Error (%)
Test Error (%)

15
15
5
Arcene Dexter Dorothea Gisette Madelon Arcene Dexter Dorothea Gisette Madelon
QTRIFD 00W01W fpEqzExlynp zq ot;pEpyG wplEytyr xpGszoF zy 6Ip CEzmwpxF+

HFtyr mzGs HytIlEtlGp FnEppytyr zq qplGHEpF ’GzC Clypw( lyo l EpoHnpo qplGHEp FpG
qEzx lHGzxlGtn EpwpIlynp opGpExtylGtzy- jsp pEEzE mlEF lG Gsp GzC zq plns CwzG
slIp JtoGs pDHlw Gz zyp FGlyolEo pEEzE zq Gsp ot;pEpynp mpGJppy GJz pEEzE ElGpF-
Zy xzFG zq Gsp CEzmwpxF FpIpElw nzxCpGtGzEF lEp JtGsty GstF pEEzE mzHyo-
jstF lylwAFtF JlF nlEEtpo zHG mA YtnszwlF UzsyFzy+ lyo qHww opGltwF xlA
mp qzHyo ty UzsyFzy ’=$$](˜ - jsp EpFHwGF lEp FszJy ty QtrHEp %%-%= lyo
jlmwp %%-“-
jsp ¨rHEp lyo Glmwp FszJ MlApFtly+ mzzFGpo lyo mlrrpo ypHElw ypGJzEvF+
mzzFGpo GEppF+ lyo Elyozx qzEpFGF+ HFtyr mzGs Gsp FnEppypo lyo EpoHnpo
qplGHEpF FpGF- jsp pEEzE mlEF lG Gsp GzC zq plns CwzG tyotnlGp zyp FGlyolEo
pEEzE zq Gsp otΓpEpynp mpGJppy GJz pEEzE ElGpF- MlApFtly ypHElw ypGJzEvF
lrlty pxpErp lF Gsp JtyypE+ lwGszHrs qzE Fzxp olGlFpGF Gsp otΓpEpynpF
mpGJppy Gsp GpFG pEEzE ElGpF tF yzG FGlGtFGtnlwwA Ftryt¨nlyG- hlyozx qzEpFGF
CpEqzExF Gsp mpFG lxzyr Gsp nzxCpGtGzEF HFtyr Gsp FpwpnGpo qplGHEp FpG+
Jstwp Gsp mzzFGpo ypHElw ypGJzEvF CpEqzEx mpFG JtGs Gsp EpoHnpo qplGHEp
FpG+ lyo yplEwA xlGns Gsp MlApFtly ypHElw ypG-
jsp FHCpEtzEtGA zq mzzFGpo ypHElw ypGJzEvF zIpE mzzFGpo GEppF FHrrpFG
GslG Gsp ypHElw ypGJzEv xzopw tF mpGGpE FHtGpo Gz GspFp ClEGtnHwlE CEzm!
wpxF- iCpnt¨nlwwA+ tyotItoHlw qplGHEpF xtrsG yzG mp rzzo CEpotnGzEF spEp
2 bp lwFz Gslyv TFlmpwwp RHAzy qzE spwC ty CEpClEtyr Gsp EpFHwGF zq GstF FpnGtzy-
?%? YpHElw YpGUzEvF
uLM D 00W2W fpEqzExlynp zq ot;pEpyG xpGszoF- alwHpF lEp lIpElrp Elyv zq GpFG
pEEzE lnEzFF Gsp 6Ip CEzmwpxF ’wzJ tF rzzo(+ lyo xply nzxCHGlGtzy Gtxp lyo
FGlyolEo pEEzE zq Gsp xply+ ty xtyHGpF-
inEppypo QplGHEpF LhO hpoHnpo QplGHEpF
cpGszo LIpElrp LIpElrp LIpElrp LIpElrp
hlyv jtxp hlyv jtxp
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hlyozx qzEpFGF =-fi %-–’%-fi( “-= %%-=’–-“(
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lyo wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF zq qplGHEpF JzEv mpGGpE- SzJpIpE Gsp txCEpFFtIp

CpEqzExlynp zq Elyozx qzEpFGF tF lG zooF JtGs GstF pKCwlylGtzy+ lyo nlxp
lF l FHECEtFp Gz HF-
itynp Gsp EpoHnpo qplGHEp FpGF nzxp qEzx Gsp MlApFtly ypHElw ypGJzEv
lCCEzlns+ zywA Gsp xpGszoF GslG HFp Gsp FnEppypo qplGHEpF lEp wprtGtxlGp+
Fpwq!nzyGltypo CEznpoHEpF- SzJpIpE+ GstF ozpF FHrrpFG GslG mpGGpE xpGszoF
qzE tyGpEylw qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy xtrsG spwC Gsp zIpElww CpEqzExlynp zq mzzFGpo
ypHElw ypGJzEvF-
jsp Glmwp lwFz FszJF Gsp lCCEzKtxlGp GEltytyr Gtxp EpDHtEpo qzE plns
xpGszo- SpEp Gsp yzy!MlApFtly xpGszoF FszJ l nwplE loIlyGlrp-
ZIpElww+ Gsp FHCpEtzE CpEqzExlynp zq MlApFtly ypHElw ypGJzEvF spEp xlA
mp oHp Gz Gsp qlnG GslG
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’m( Gsp XNXN lCCEzlns CEzItopF ly pffntpyG JlA zq pKCwzEtyr Gsp tx!
CzEGlyG ClEG zq Gsp ClElxpGpE FClnp+ lyo Gspy lIpElrtyr Gsp EpFHwGtyr
xzopwF lnnzEotyr Gz GsptE DHlwtGA-
jsp MlApFtly lCCEzlns JzEvF Jpww qzE FxzzGswA ClElxpGEtBpo xzopwF wtvp
ypHElw ypGF: tG tF yzG ApG nwplE GslG tG JzEvF lF Jpww qzE yzy!FxzzGs xzopwF
wtvp GEppF-
00-0. NzxCHGlGtzylw NzyFtopElGtzyF

btGs Y zmFpEIlGtzyF+ C CEpotnGzEF+ X stoopy HytGF lyo GEltytyr pCznsF+ l
ypHElw ypGJzEv ¨G GACtnlwwA EpDHtEpF Z’Y CX ( zCpElGtzyF- jspEp lEp xlyA
ClnvlrpF lIltwlmwp qzE ¨GGtyr ypHElw ypGJzEvF+ CEzmlmwA xlyA xzEp Gsly
pKtFG qzE xltyFGEplx FGlGtFGtnlw xpGszoF- MpnlHFp Gsp lIltwlmwp FzqGJlEp
IlEtpF JtopwA ty DHlwtGA+ lyo Gsp wplEytyr CEzmwpx qzE ypHElw ypGJzEvF tF
FpyFtGtIp Gz tFFHpF FHns lF tyCHG Fnlwtyr+ FHns FzqGJlEp FszHwo mp nlEpqHwwA
nszFpy lyo GpFGpo-
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fEzupnGtzy CHEFHtG JlF CEzCzFpo mA QEtpoxly lyo jHvpA ’%–fi?(+ lyo FCp!
ntlwtBpo Gz EprEpFFtzy mA QEtpoxly lyo iGHpGBwp ’%–]%(- SHmpE ’%–]4( rtIpF
l FnszwlEwA zIpEItpJ+ lyo hzzFpy lyo SlFGtp ’%––?( CEpFpyG l qzExHwlGtzy
HFtyr FxzzGstyr FCwtypF- jsp xzGtIlGtzy qzE ypHElw ypGJzEvF olGpF mlnv
Gz XnNHwwzns lyo ftGGF ’%–?“(+ btoEzJ lyo SzΓ ’%–[$( ’EpCEtyGpo ty Ly!
opEFzy lyo hzFpyqpwo ’%–]](( lyo hzFpymwlGG ’%–[=(- Spmm ’%–?–( splItwA
ty7Hpynpo Gsp opIpwzCxpyG zq wplEytyr lwrzEtGsxF- jsp EpFHErpynp zq ypHElw
ypGJzEvF ty Gsp xto %–]$F JlF oHp Gz bpEmzF ’%–fi?(+ flEvpE ’%–]4( lyo
hHxpwslEG pG lw- ’%–][(+ Jsz CEzCzFpo Gsp mlnv!CEzClrlGtzy lwrzEtGsx-
jzolA GspEp lEp xlyA mzzvF JEtGGpy zy Gsp GzCtn+ qzE l mEzlo Elyrp zq
lHotpynpF- QzE EplopEF zq GstF mzzv+ SpEGB pG lw- ’%––%(+ MtFszC ’%––4( lyo
htCwpA ’%––[( xlA mp Gsp xzFG tyqzExlGtIp- MlApFtly wplEytyr qzE ypHElw
ypGJzEvF tF opFnEtmpo ty Yplw ’%––[(- jsp eTf nzop pKlxCwp JlF Glvpy qEzx
p NHy ’%–]–(: Fpp lwFz p NHy pG lw- ’%––$( lyo p NHy pG lw- ’%––](-
bp oz yzG otFnHFF GspzEpGtnlw GzCtnF FHns lF lCCEzKtxlGtzy CEzCpEGtpF zq
ypHElw ypGJzEvF+ FHns lF Gsp JzEv zq MlEEzy ’%––“(+ RtEzFt pG lw- ’%––4(
lyo UzypF ’%––=(- izxp zq GspFp EpFHwGF lEp FHxxlEtBpo mA htCwpA ’%––[(-
PKpEntFpF
PK- %%-% PFGlmwtFs Gsp pKlnG nzEEpFCzyopynp mpGJppy Gsp CEzupnGtzy CHE!
FHtG EprEpFFtzy xzopw ’%%-%( lyo Gsp ypHElw ypGJzEv ’%%-4(- Ty ClEGtnHwlE+
FszJ GslG Gsp Ftyrwp!wlApE EprEpFFtzy ypGJzEv tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz l ffh xzopw
j j
JtGs rx ’ωx K( ˆ βx σ’α$x ) Fx ’ωx K((+ JspEp ωx tF Gsp xGs HytG IpnGzE-
PFGlmwtFs l FtxtwlE pDHtIlwpynp qzE l nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ypGJzEv-
PK- %%-= NzyFtopE l ypHElw ypGJzEv qzE l DHlyGtGlGtIp zHGnzxp lF ty ’%%-4(+

HFtyr FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF lyo topyGtGA zHGCHG qHynGtzy rv ’G( ˆ G- iHCCzFp
GslG Gsp JptrsGF αx qEzx Gsp tyCHG Gz stoopy wlApE lEp yplEwA BpEz- iszJ
GslG Gsp EpFHwGtyr xzopw tF yplEwA wtyplE ty Gsp tyCHGF-
PK- %%-“ OpEtIp Gsp qzEJlEo lyo mlnvJlEo CEzClrlGtzy pDHlGtzyF qzE Gsp
nEzFF!pyGEzCA wzFF qHynGtzy-
PK- %%-? NzyFtopE l ypHElw ypGJzEv qzE l V nwlFF zHGnzxp GslG HFpF nEzFF!
pyGEzCA wzFF- Tq Gsp ypGJzEv slF yz stoopy wlApE+ FszJ GslG Gsp xzopw tF
pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp xHwGtyzxtlw wzrtFGtn xzopw opFnEtmpo ty NslCGpE ?-
PK- %%-4
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0.210 o
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lyo GpFG pEEzE ElGpF qzE l yHxmpE zq nwlFFt¨nlGtzy GpnsytDHpF- QOL#XLhi
EpqpEF Gz QEtpoxly&F xHwGtIlEtlGp lolCGtIp EprEpFFtzy FCwtypF: oprEpp ˆ =
xplyF CltEJtFp CEzoHnGF lEp CpExtGGpo- YzGtnp GslG qzE QOL#XLhi+ Gsp
mpFG nwlFFt¨nlGtzy EpFHwGF lEp zmGltypo ty l EpoHnpo!Elyv FHmFClnp-
??? %=- QwpKtmwp OtFnEtxtylyGF
uLM D 01W2W azJpw EpnzrytGtzy olGl CpEqzExlynp EpFHwGF- jsp EpFHwGF qzE ypHElw
ypGJzEvF lEp Gsp mpFG lxzyr l xHns wlErpE FpG+ Glvpy qEzx l ypHElw ypGJzEv
lEnstIp- jsp yzGlGtzy QOL.MhkjZ EpqpEF Gz Gsp EprEpFFtzy xpGszo HFpo JtGs
QOL-

jEltytyr jpFG
’%( OL $-“= $-4[
izqGxlK $-?] $-[fi
’=( gOL $-$% $-4“
’“( NLhj $-$4 $-4[
’?( NLhj ’wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy FCwtGF( $-$4 $-4?
’4( ityrwp!wlApE CpEnpCGEzy $-[fi
’[( XHwGt!wlApE CpEnpCGEzy ’]] stoopy HytGF( $-?–
’fi( RlHFFtly yzop ypGJzEv ’4=] stoopy HytGF( $-?4
’]( YplEpFG yptrsmzE $-??
’–( QOL#MhkjZ $-$[ $-??
izqGxlK $-%% $-4$
’%$( QOL#XLhi ’oprEpp ˆ %( $-$– $-?4
MpFG EpoHnpo otxpyFtzy ’ˆ=( $-%] $-?=
izqGxlK $-%? $-?]
’%%( QOL#XLhi ’oprEpp ˆ =( $-$= $-?=
MpFG EpoHnpo otxpyFtzy ’ˆ[( $-%“ $-“–
izqGxlK $-%$ $-4$
01-4-0 NzxCHGtyr Gsp QOL PFGtxlGpF

jsp nzxCHGlGtzyF qzE Gsp QOL nzzEotylGpF nly mp FtxCwt¨po ty xlyA tx!
CzEGlyG nlFpF+ ty ClEGtnHwlE Jspy Gsp yzyClElxpGEtn EprEpFFtzy CEznpoHEp
nly mp EpCEpFpyGpo lF l wtyplE zCpElGzE- bp Jtww opyzGp GstF zCpElGzE mA
— ˆ iλ A+ JspEp A tF Gsp IpnGzE zq EpFCzyFpF lyo A
iλ : GslG tF+ A — Gsp IpnGzE
zq ¨GF- LootGtIp FCwtypF slIp GstF CEzCpEGA+ tq Gsp FxzzGstyr ClElxpGpEF lEp
¨Kpo+ lF ozpF XLhi zynp Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF lEp FpwpnGpo- jsp FHmFnEtCG λ
opyzGpF Gsp pyGtEp FpG zq FxzzGstyr ClElxpGpEF- Ty GstF nlFp zCGtxlw FnzEtyr
tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz l nlyzytnlw nzEEpwlGtzy CEzmwpx+ lyo Gsp FzwHGtzy nly mp
nzxCHGpo mA l Ftyrwp ptrpy!opnzxCzFtGtzy- jstF tF CHEFHpo ty PKpEntFp %=-[+
lyo Gsp EpFHwGtyr lwrzEtGsx tF CEpFpyGpo spEp-
bp nEplGp ly Y × V tyotnlGzE EpFCzyFp xlGEtK d qEzx Gsp EpFCzyFpF rt +
FHns GslG Atv ˆ % tq rt ˆ v+ zGspEJtFp Atv ˆ $- QzE l Ïp!nwlFF CEzmwpx d
xtrsG wzzv wtvp Gsp qzwwzJtyr9
%=-4 QwpKtmwp OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF ??4
N0 N= N2 N3 N4
r0 ˆ = / % / / /
P 0
r= ˆ % A %
A / / / / BB
r2 ˆ % A %
A / / / / BB
r3 ˆ 4 A /
A / / / % BB
r4 ˆ ? A / / / % / B
-- --
A B
A B
- 1 -
rB ˆ “ / / % / /
SpEp lEp Gsp nzxCHGlGtzylw FGpCF9
%- XHwGtIlEtlGp yzyClElxpGEtn EprEpFFtzy- QtG l xHwGtEpFCzyFp+ lolCGtIp

yzyClElxpGEtn EprEpFFtzy zq d zy c+ rtItyr ¨GGpo IlwHpF d-— pG iλ
mp Gsp wtyplE zCpElGzE GslG ¨GF Gsp ÿlw nszFpy xzopw+ lyo η { ’K( mp
Gsp IpnGzE zq ¨GGpo EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzyF-
— ˆ dj iλ d+
=- ZCGtxlw FnzEpF- NzxCHGp Gsp ptrpy!opnzxCzFtGtzy zq dj d
j
JspEp Gsp ptrpyIpnGzEF Θ lEp yzExlwtBpo9 Θ Oπ Θ ˆ T- SpEp Oπ ˆ
dj d.Y tF l otlrzylw xlGEtK zq Gsp pFGtxlGpo nwlFF CEtzE
CEzmlmtwtGtpF-
“- kColGp Gsp xzopw qEzx FGpC % HFtyr Gsp zCGtxlw FnzEpF9 η’K( ˆ Θj η { ’K(-
jsp ËFG zq Gsp V qHynGtzyF ty η’K( tF Gsp nzyFGlyG qHynGtzy1 l GEtItlw

FzwHGtzy: Gsp Epxltytyr V }% qHynGtzyF lEp Gsp otFnEtxtylyG qHynGtzyF- jsp
nzyFGlyG qHynGtzy+ lwzyr JtGs Gsp yzExlwtBlGtzy+ nlHFpF lww Gsp Epxltytyr
qHynGtzyF Gz mp npyGpEpo-
Lrlty iλ nly nzEEpFCzyo Gz lyA EprEpFFtzy xpGszo- bspy iλ ˆ Sc + Gsp
wtyplE EprEpFFtzy CEzupnGtzy zCpElGzE+ Gspy QOL tF wtyplE otFnEtxtylyG lylw!
AFtF- jsp FzqGJlEp GslG Jp EpqpEpynp ty Gsp NzxCHGlGtzylw NzyFtopElGtzyF
FpnGtzy zy Clrp ?44 xlvpF rzzo HFp zq GstF xzoHwlEtGA: Gsp Dol qHynGtzy
slF l xpGszo1 lErHxpyG GslG lwwzJF zyp Gz FHCCwA lyA EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzy+
lF wzyr lF tG qzwwzJF Fzxp ylGHElw nzyIpyGtzyF- jsp EprEpFFtzy qHynGtzyF
Jp CEzItop lwwzJ qzE CzwAyzxtlw EprEpFFtzy+ lolCGtIp lootGtIp xzopwF lyo
XLhi- jspA lww pffntpyGwA slyowp xHwGtCwp EpFCzyFpF+ Fz FGpC ’%( tF l Ftyrwp
nlww Gz l EprEpFFtzy EzHGtyp- jsp ptrpy!opnzxCzFtGtzy ty FGpC ’=( FtxHwGl!
ypzHFwA nzxCHGpF lww Gsp zCGtxlw FnzEtyr qHynGtzyF-
Ty ipnGtzy ?-= Jp otFnHFFpo Gsp CtGqlwwF zq HFtyr wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zy ly
tyotnlGzE EpFCzyFp xlGEtK lF l xpGszo qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy- Ty ClEGtnHwlE+ Fp!
IpEp xlFvtyr nly znnHE JtGs GsEpp zE xzEp nwlFFpF- QOL HFpF Gsp ¨GF qEzx
FHns l EprEpFFtzy ty FGpC ’%(+ mHG Gspy GElyFqzExF Gspx qHEGspE Gz CEzoHnp
HFpqHw otFnEtxtylyG qHynGtzyF GslG lEp opIzto zq GspFp CtGqlwwF- PKpEntFp %=-–
GlvpF lyzGspE ItpJ zq GstF Cspyzxpyzy-
??[ %=- QwpKtmwp OtFnEtxtylyGF
01-” fpylwtBpo OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF

LwGszHrs QOL tF xzGtIlGpo mA rpypElwtBtyr zCGtxlw FnzEtyr+ tG nly lwFz mp
ItpJpo otEpnGwA lF l qzEx zq EprHwlEtBpo otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF- iHCCzFp Gsp
EprEpFFtzy CEznpoHEp HFpo ty QOL lxzHyGF Gz l wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zyGz l
mlFtF pKClyFtzy s’c(+ JtGs l DHloElGtn CpylwGA zy Gsp nzpffntpyGF9
CY D
% ∑ ∑ j = j
Lih’·θℓ W βℓ •ℓˆ0 ( ˆ ’θℓ ’rt ( } s ’Kt (βℓ ( ) λβℓ Ωβℓ , ’%=-4fi(
Y tˆ0
ℓˆ0
jsp nsztnp zq Ω opCpyoF zy Gsp CEzmwpx- Tq ηℓ ’K( ˆ s’K(βℓ tF ly pKClyFtzy

zy FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF+ Ω xtrsG nzyFGElty ηℓ Gz mp FxzzGs zIpE ThC - Ty
Gsp nlFp zq lootGtIp FCwtypF+ GspEp lEp Y FCwtyp mlFtF qHynGtzyF qzE plns
nzzEotylGp+ EpFHwGtyr ty l GzGlw zq Y C mlFtF qHynGtzyF ty s’K(: Ω ty GstF nlFp
tF Y C × Y C lyo mwznv otlrzylw-
jsp FGpCF ty QOL nly Gspy mp ItpJpo lF l rpypElwtBpo qzEx zq OL+
Jstns Jp nlww CpylwtBpo otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF+ zE fOL9
| PywlErp Gsp FpG zq CEpotnGzEF c Itl l mlFtF pKClyFtzy s’c(-
| kFp ’CpylwtBpo( OL ty Gsp pywlErpo FClnp+ JspEp Gsp CpylwtBpo

XlslwlyzmtF otFGlynp tF rtIpy mA
O’KW <( ˆ ’s’K( } s’<((j ’:b ) λΩ(}0 ’s’K( } s’<((W ’%=-4](
JspEp :b tF Gsp JtGsty!nwlFF nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK zq Gsp opEtIpo IlEt!

lmwpF s’Kt (-
| OpnzxCzFp Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy FHmFClnp HFtyr l CpylwtBpo xpGEtn9
xlK Hj :MpG H FHmupnG Gz Hj ’:b ) λΩ(H ˆ %,
zzFpwA FCplvtyr+ Gsp CpylwtBpo XlslwlyzmtF otFGlynp GpyoF Gz rtIp wpFF

JptrsG Gz ˜EzHrs˙ nzzEotylGpF+ lyo xzEp JptrsG Gz ˜FxzzGs˙ zypF: Ftynp
Gsp CpylwGA tF yzG otlrzylw+ Gsp Flxp lCCwtpF Gz wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF GslG
lEp EzHrs zE FxzzGs-
QzE Fzxp nwlFFpF zq CEzmwpxF+ Gsp ËFG FGpC+ tyIzwItyr Gsp mlFtF pKClyFtzy+
tF yzG yppopo: Jp lwEploA slIp qlE Gzz xlyA ’nzEEpwlGpo( CEpotnGzEF- L
wplotyr pKlxCwp tF Jspy Gsp zmupnGF Gz mp nwlFFt¨po lEp otrtGtBpo lylwzr
FtrylwF9
| Gsp wzr!CpEtzozrElx zq l qElrxpyG zq FCzvpy FCppns+ FlxCwpo lG l FpG

zq =4[ qEpDHpyntpF: Fpp QtrHEp 4-4 zy Clrp %?–-
| Gsp rElAFnlwp CtKpw IlwHpF ty l otrtGtBpo txlrp zq l slyoJEtGGpy otrtG-

%=-[ fpylwtBpo OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF ??fi
LDA: Coefficient 1 PDA: Coefficient 1 LDA: Coefficient 2 PDA: Coefficient 2 LDA: Coefficient 3 PDA: Coefficient 3
QTRIFD 01W00W jsp txlrpF lCCplE ty CltEF+ lyo EpCEpFpyG Gsp ytyp otFnEtx,
tylyG nzpffntpyG qHynGtzyF qzE Gsp otrtG EpnzrytGtzy CEzmwpx- jsp wpqG xpxmpE zq
plns CltE tF Gsp OL nzpffntpyG+ Jstwp Gsp EtrsG xpxmpE tF Gsp fOL nzpffntpyG+
EprHwlEtBpo Gz pyqzEnp FClGtlw FxzzGsypFF-
TG tF lwFz tyGHtGtIpwA nwplE ty GspFp nlFpF JsA EprHwlEtBlGtzy tF yppopo-

jlvp Gsp otrtGtBpo txlrp lF ly pKlxCwp- YptrsmzEtyr CtKpw IlwHpF Jtww Gpyo
Gz mp nzEEpwlGpo+ mptyr zqGpy lwxzFG Gsp Flxp- jstF txCwtpF GslG Gsp CltE
zq nzEEpFCzyotyr OL nzpffntpyGF qzE GspFp CtKpwF nly mp JtwowA otΓpEpyG
lyo zCCzFtGp ty Ftry+ lyo GsHF nlynpw Jspy lCCwtpo Gz FtxtwlE CtKpw IlwHpF-
fzFtGtIpwA nzEEpwlGpo CEpotnGzEF wplo Gz yztFA+ yprlGtIpwA nzEEpwlGpo nzpff!
ntpyG pFGtxlGpF+ lyo GstF yztFp EpFHwGF ty HyJlyGpo FlxCwtyr IlEtlynp- L
EplFzylmwp FGElGprA tF Gz EprHwlEtBp Gsp nzpffntpyGF Gz mp FxzzGs zIpE Gsp
FClGtlw ozxlty+ lF JtGs txlrpF- jstF tF JslG fOL ozpF- jsp nzxCHGlGtzyF
CEznppo uHFG lF qzE QOL+ pKnpCG GslG ly lCCEzCEtlGp CpylwtBpo EprEpFFtzy
xpGszo tF HFpo- SpEp sj ’c(βℓ ˆ cβℓ + lyo Ω tF nszFpy Fz GslG βℓj Ωβℓ
CpylwtBpF EzHrsypFF ty βℓ Jspy ItpJpo lF ly txlrp- QtrHEp %-= zy Clrp ?
FszJF Fzxp pKlxCwpF zq slyoJEtGGpy otrtGF- QtrHEp %=-%% FszJF Gsp otF!
nEtxtylyG IlEtlGpF HFtyr OL lyo fOL- jszFp CEzoHnpo mA OL lCCplE
lF FlwG,lyo,CpCCpE txlrpF+ Jstwp GszFp CEzoHnpo mA fOL lEp FxzzGs tx!
lrpF- jsp ËFG FxzzGs txlrp nly mp Fppy lF Gsp nzpffntpyGF zq l wtyplE
nzyGElFG qHynGtzylw qzE FpClElGtyr txlrpF JtGs l olEv npyGElw IpEGtnlw FGEtC
’zypF+ CzFFtmwA FpIpyF( qEzx txlrpF GslG lEp szwwzJ ty Gsp xtoowp ’BpEzF+
Fzxp qzHEF(- QtrHEp %=-%= FHCCzEGF GstF tyGpECEpGlGtzy+ lyo JtGs xzEp otq!
¨nHwGA lwwzJF ly tyGpECEpGlGtzy zq Gsp Fpnzyo nzzEotylGp- jstF lyo zGspE
??] %=- QwpKtmwp OtFnEtxtylyGF
6
6
6
6
6 6 66 6
6 666 6 6 1 1
66 0
1 11
6 1 1 11 1 1
66 6666 6 666566 6 6 6 1 1 1 1 1
66 1 1 1 111111 1
66
4
0 6 6 6 6 6 6 2
6 6
66 6 666 666 1 11 11111111111 1
0 0 6 06 66
6
6 6 6 62 5 1 1
1111111 11
11 11
1111
11 1
0 0 50 00 0 5666666 6606 666 6 1 1
11 1111111111
1111111
11 111111
02 006666 6 66 66 66 5 20 56 6 41 11 1
11 1
1
1
1 111111
1
0 0 0 0 6 6
6 1 1 1
1111 11 11 1
11
111111111111
1
0 00 0 000 6 66 0 6 666 6 6 6666 66 6 6 1 11 1 1 11 1111 1
00 0000000000 0 0 6 5 6 6 5 6 66 5 55 02 2 5 2 1 1 11111111111 11111 1111 111
00 0 0000000 000 0 00 00000 0 506 6
6 6 06 6 6 6865 56 6 2
2 1 11 1111
1 1111111
1
0 00 00000 0 0 0 0
00 00060 5 2
5
6 5 5 5 6
62 1 5 2 8 11 1
11 1
000 00 0 6 5656 4 1 1
0000 00 000 0 58 544
PDA: Discriminant Coordinate 2
0 002 066 0 66 6 2 4 1 1
0 0 6 65 55 86 8 4 1 11 11
2
0 0 00 000 000 0000

00 20060 08 2 5 5 5 56 8 1 1 1111 11 1 1
0 0 0000 0 00000
00000 000 000000000000 0 0 5 5 65 220 56 55 5
588 22 52 2
2 62
00 000 0 000
0
0 00
00
0 0000000 000 2 020 5 0065 26 2 5555283 5 4 4
1
0 00 5 5 5 1
0 0 0 0000000 0 000
0 0 00 000 65650 5 55656555625258 5 5322556 42 4 4
0 0 0 000 0000 0000000000
00 0 0 00 5 2 6 1
0 00000 0 0050 40
205 5
0035 58 585 652
3 2552625 252
3 5555 85254
82
6 835 225 2 1
0 00 0000 0 0000 50 6 00 0
25 3 5 2 8885 2 2 8
5 5 3 2 54 2
8 3 2 4 1
0 0 0 0 0 55 0085 508325 5 488
50 585 23
852228 2 8 822 58 322
2 6 4
1 11
0 0 00 00 0 0 28032 3 22
25 252
522 23828528
5 322222885255 2 1
0 0 0 58 832 88 0 236 5 82
58532
23 8382 2
0 2355 8 25 5328223 22 82 222 2428 48 7
0
0 0 2 5 55 5 3 32
8 8
6 2 3
2 2 8 8 8 4 1 7
0 82 580032 05 0 52
88 8 385 242228
5 82 5 2 282 58 888 8 88 4
0 0 80 02 538453 4 3 8
0 2223 3822288 824 824
5 2 3 8 8 4 4
0 33323 350223 8838525 8383 53 338388825 2 8 288
0 4 88 838 2 8 2 28
2 822 3 3282488325888 2 84 8 914 9 1
0 0 4 5483 883 03282 8 325 252 222
3 35883
223228 2
45333 82 2 7
4
4
328 45
8
8 3 2 05
3 332 8 8 8 4 2 48 889
888 348382
3 3352 3
8 89
23 8473
2 3
3
38 4
4 2284382 84 1 5 4 9
8 08 3338 38
8 33 3 3 38333
8 23
33 3 24 8328
84 9 4 44 9
4 41 4
435 3343 54 49 498 414 841
35 74 3 4 333 334032332364 38 4
33 2 35 4494 8499 9 94 944
-2
233338 4 3427334 444 2

0 3 4 33 3 33 3 3 4
9 4 8 0
49484 7 44 409 4
7 4
4
33 248 344474 4444944094 9 9 9 99 4
333 3 2 393
4 4 3 3744 4 998 4
4 33 7778497347 474 4479 3
4 449 9 9 94
3 4 4 4 474
2 47 7 9 4479 9 9
3 4345 97 944474349777447949 994 9 94 99 7
4 4 33 4 9994749 79729 9 7944 47 7 7
4
4 49 7784497979
4 77 9
745749 999 4
4 4 7
44 7 7
7
49
9
497494974 9
9 49
9997479999799974779 9 9
7 9 7 9 7
7 99 99 79
47 79 4
9
47 4474
-4
3 47749 9 79 9 77 4 79999
9
979 9 7997 4 7 9
7 41 9994 9 97 797
7999
7
997 9797 97799977 9
7
3 7 991 777 977 7
7 97
79
9
9 777777 7
9 977797 9999 9 79 9 7
9
7
77997 9
4 44 9777799 77977
9 779 77
9 7 7 777
1 7
7 7
-6
-5 0 5
PDA: Discriminant Coordinate 1
QTRIFD 01W01W jsp 6EFG GJz CpylwtBpo nlyzytnlw IlEtlGpF+ pIlwHlGpo qzE Gsp
GpFG olGl- jsp ntEnwpF tyotnlGp Gsp nwlFF npyGEztoF- jsp 6EFG nzzEotylGp nzyGElFGF
xltywA /WF lyo %WF+ Jstwp Gsp Fpnzyo nzyGElFGF [WF lyo fi.–WF-
%=-fi ctKGHEp OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF ??–
pKlxCwpF lEp otFnHFFpo ty xzEp opGltw ty SlFGtp pG lw- ’%––4(+ Jsz lwFz FszJ
GslG Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy txCEzIpF Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CpEqzExlynp zq OL zy
tyopCpyopyG GpFG olGl mA l qlnGzE zq lEzHyo =40 ty Gsp nlFpF GspA GEtpo-
01-fi ctKGHEp OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF

typlE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF nly mp ItpJpo lF l CEzGzGACp nwlFFt¨pE- Plns
nwlFF tF EpCEpFpyGpo mA tGF npyGEzto+ lyo Jp nwlFFtqA Gz Gsp nwzFpFG HFtyr ly
lCCEzCEtlGp xpGEtn- Ty xlyA FtGHlGtzyF l Ftyrwp CEzGzGACp tF yzG FHffntpyG
Gz EpCEpFpyG tyszxzrpypzHF nwlFFpF+ lyo xtKGHEp xzopwF lEp xzEp lCCEz!
CEtlGp- Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp EpItpJ RlHFFtly xtKGHEp xzopwF lyo FszJ szJ
GspA nly mp rpypElwtBpo Itl Gsp QOL lyo fOL xpGszoF otFnHFFpo plEwtpE-
L RlHFFtly xtKGHEp xzopw qzE Gsp vGs nwlFF slF opyFtGA
hv
∑
f ’cKR ˆ v( ˆ πvE φ’c: <vE W :(W ’%=-4–(
Eˆ0
JspEp Gsp xtKtyr CEzCzEGtzyF πvE FHx Gz zyp- jstF slF hv CEzGzGACpF qzE
Gsp vGs nwlFF+ lyo ty zHE FCpnt¨nlGtzy+ Gsp Flxp nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK : tF
HFpo lF Gsp xpGEtn GsEzHrszHG- RtIpy FHns l xzopw qzE plns nwlFF+ Gsp nwlFF
CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGtpF lEp rtIpy mA
(hv
πvE φ’c: <vE W :(Πv
f ’R ˆ vKc ˆ K( ˆ (V Eˆ0
(hℓ W ’%=-[$(
ℓˆ0 Eˆ0 πℓE φ’c: <ℓE W :(Πℓ
JspEp Πv EpCEpFpyG Gsp nwlFF CEtzE CEzmlmtwtGtpF-

bp FlJ GspFp nlwnHwlGtzyF qzE Gsp FCpntlw nlFp zq GJz nzxCzypyGF ty
NslCGpE ]- LF ty OL+ Jp pFGtxlGp Gsp ClElxpGpEF mA xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo+
HFtyr Gsp uztyG wzr!wtvpwtszzo mlFpo zy f ’RW c(9
V ∑
Ch D
∑ ∑v
wzr πvE φ’Kt : <vE W :(Πv , ’%=-[%(

vˆ0 rt ˆv Eˆ0
jsp FHx JtGsty Gsp wzr xlvpF GstF l ElGspE xpFFA zCGtxtBlGtzy CEzmwpx
tq Glnvwpo otEpnGwA- jsp nwlFFtnlw lyo ylGHElw xpGszo qzE nzxCHGtyr Gsp
xlKtxHx!wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGpF ’X PF( qzE xtKGHEp otFGEtmHGtzyF tF Gsp PX
lwrzEtGsx ’OpxCFGpE pG lw-+ %–fifi(+ Jstns tF vyzJy Gz CzFFpFF rzzo nzyIpE!
rpynp CEzCpEGtpF- PX lwGpEylGpF mpGJppy Gsp GJz FGpCF9
?4/ %=- QwpKtmwp OtFnEtxtylyGF
P!FGpC9 RtIpy Gsp nHEEpyG ClElxpGpEF+ nzxCHGp Gsp EpFCzyFtmtwtGA zq FHm!

nwlFF nvE JtGsty nwlFF v qzE plns zq Gsp nwlFF!v zmFpEIlGtzyF ’rt ˆ v(9
πvE φ’Kt : <vE W :(

b ’nvE KKt W rt ( ˆ (hv , ’%=-[=(
ℓˆ0 πvℓ φ’Kt : <vℓ W :(
X!FGpC9 NzxCHGp Gsp JptrsGpo X PF qzE Gsp ClElxpGpEF zq plns zq Gsp

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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o ooo o o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o o o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
oo oo o
o o o o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o oo o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o
••
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o
o oooo o ooo o o oo
o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o
o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
oooo o ooo oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o ooo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
•
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o
o o o o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o oo oo o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o
ooo
o o o oo o
•
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.. ..Training . . . . . . . . Error: . . . . . . 0.17
o o .....................................................
.. .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.. ..Test . . . . Error:. . . . . . . . . . 0.22 .....................................................
.. .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
Bayes Error: .....................................................................
0.21 o
QTRIFD 01W02W QOL lyo cOL zy Gsp xtKGHEp olGl- jsp HCCpE CwzG HFpF
QOL JtGs cLhi lF Gsp EprEpFFtzy CEznpoHEp- jsp wzJpE CwzG HFpF cOL JtGs
6Ip xtKGHEp npyGpEF CpE nwlFF ’tyotnlGpo(- jsp cOL FzwHGtzy tF nwzFp Gz MlApF
zCGtxlw+ lF xtrsG mp pKCpnGpo rtIpy Gsp olGl lEtFp qEzx xtKGHEpF zq RlHFFtlyF-
jsp mEzvpy CHECwp nHEIp ty Gsp mlnvrEzHyo tF Gsp MlApF opntFtzy mzHyolEA-
%=-fi ctKGHEp OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF ?4“
Class 1
1
2
4 1
2 1
3 4 2
5 3
5
4 5
3
4
2
1 5
3 5 1
3 4 3 2
5 2
4 1 4 1
3 5 2
2 3
4 5 1
3 4 1
5 5 2
4 2 3
3
5 1 5
4 3 1
4 5
3 2
3
5 4
2 2 4 5
3
2 2
1 1 1 4
5
3
4
2
1 5
3
4
2
1 5
3
4
2
1 5
3
4
2
1 5
3
4
2
1 1 5
3
4
2
1
Class 2
3
2
4 3 1 3
5 2
4
5 1 2
4 5
3
4
2
1 1
5 5 3
1 4
2 5 2
1 3 4
4 1 3
5 2 2
4 3 5 1
5 1 4
3
2 2
4
5 1
3 5
1 4 5
4 3
2
4
5 1 2 5 1
1 2 4
1 2 3 5
4
5
3
4
2
1 2
3 3 3 5
3
4
2
1 5
3
4
2
1 5
3
4
2
1 5
3
4
2
1 5
3
4
2
1
Class 3
5
4
2
1
5 5
4 4
2
1 2
1
5 5
4 3 4
2
1 2
1
5 3 3 5
4
2
1 3
4
2
1 3 3 3 3 3
5
3
4
2
1 3
5
4 3 3 3
2
1 1
2 1
4
5 1 2 1 3
3 1 2 4 2 1
5
4
2 2 4 4 2 3
1 4 5 4 1
2
3 5 5 5 5 4 1
2 3
5 4
5 1
2
4
5
5
3
4
2
1 5
3
1
4
2
QTRIFD 01W03W izxp pKlxCwpF zq Gsp JlIpqzExF rpypElGpo qEzx xzopw ’%=-”3(
mpqzEp Gsp RlHFFtly yztFp tF loopo-
Ku } %%KW $(+ s= ’u( ˆ s0 ’u } ?( lyo s˜ ’u( ˆ s0 ’u ) ?(- QtrHEp %=-%? FszJF

Fzxp pKlxCwp JlIpqzExF qEzx plns nwlFF-
jlmwp %=-? FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF zq XOL lCCwtpo Gz Gsp JlIpqzEx olGl+ lF
Jpww lF FpIpElw zGspE xpGszoF qEzx GstF lyo zGspE nslCGpEF- Plns GElty!
tyr FlxCwp slF “$$ zmFpEIlGtzyF+ lyo pDHlw CEtzEF JpEp HFpo+ Fz GspEp lEp
EzHrswA %$$ zmFpEIlGtzyF ty plns nwlFF- bp HFpo GpFG FlxCwpF zq FtBp 4$$-
jsp GJz XOL xzopwF lEp opFnEtmpo ty Gsp nlCGtzy-
QtrHEp %=-%4 FszJF Gsp wplotyr nlyzytnlw IlEtlGpF qzE Gsp CpylwtBpo XOL
xzopw+ pIlwHlGpo lG Gsp GpFG olGl- LF Jp xtrsG slIp rHpFFpo+ Gsp nwlFFpF
lCCplE Gz wtp zy Gsp porpF zq l GEtlyrwp- jstF tF mpnlHFp Gsp sH ’t( lEp EpCEp!
FpyGpo mA GsEpp CztyGF ty =%!FClnp+ GspEpmA qzExtyr IpEGtnpF zq l GEtlyrwp+
lyo plns nwlFF tF EpCEpFpyGpo lF l nzyIpK nzxmtylGtzy zq l CltE zq IpEGtnpF+
lyo spynp wtp zy ly porp- LwFz tG tF nwplE ItFHlwwA GslG lww Gsp tyqzExlGtzy
wtpF ty Gsp ËFG GJz otxpyFtzyF: Gsp CpEnpyGlrp zq IlEtlynp pKCwltypo mA Gsp
ËFG GJz nzzEotylGpF tF ––,]0+ lyo Jp JzHwo wzFp yzGstyr mA GEHynlGtyr Gsp
FzwHGtzy GspEp- jsp MlApF EtFv qzE GstF CEzmwpx slF mppy pFGtxlGpo Gz mp
lmzHG $,%? ’MEptxly pG lw-+ %–]?(- XOL nzxpF nwzFp Gz Gsp zCGtxlw ElGp+
Jstns tF yzG FHECEtFtyr Ftynp Gsp FGEHnGHEp zq Gsp XOL xzopw tF FtxtwlE Gz
Gsp rpypElGtyr xzopw-
?4? %=- QwpKtmwp OtFnEtxtylyGF
uLM D 01W3W hpFHwGF qzE JlIpqzEx olGl- jsp IlwHpF lEp lIpElrpF zIpE Gpy Ftx,
HwlGtzyF+ JtGs Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzE zq Gsp lIpElrp ty ClEpyGspFpF- jsp 6Ip pyGEtpF
lmzIp Gsp wtyp lEp Glvpy qEzx SlFGtp pG lw- ’%––3(- jsp 6EFG xzopw mpwzJ Gsp wtyp
tF cOL JtGs GsEpp FHmnwlFFpF CpE nwlFF- jsp ypKG wtyp tF Gsp Flxp+ pKnpCG GslG Gsp
otFnEtxtylyG nzpffntpyGF lEp CpylwtBpo Itl l EzHrsypFF CpylwGA Gz p;pnGtIpwA ?oq-
jsp GstEo tF Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr CpylwtBpo OL zE fOL xzopw-

jEltytyr jpFG
OL $-%=%’$-$$[( $-%–%’$-$$[(
gOL $-$“–’$-$$?( $-=$4’$-$$[(
NLhj $-$fi=’$-$$“( $-=]–’$-$$?(
QOL#XLhi ’oprEpp ˆ %( $-%$$’$-$$[( $-%–%’$-$$[(
QOL#XLhi ’oprEpp ˆ =( $-$[]’$-$$?( $-=%4’$-$$=(
XOL ’“ FHmnwlFFpF( $-$]fi’$-$$4( $-%[–’$-$$[(
XOL ’“ FHmnwlFFpF+ CpylwtBpo ? oq( $-%“fi’$-$$[( $-%4fi’$-$$4(
fOL ’CpylwtBpo ? oq( $-%4$’$-$$4( $-%fi%’$-$$4(
MlApF $-%?$
3 Subclasses, Penalized 4 df 3 Subclasses, Penalized 4 df
3 3
3 33
3
4
3 32
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 33 3 33 3
1.0
1 3 3 3 33 3 333 2 22
22 1 3
33 33 33 3 3 3 31 3 2 1
1 311
3 3 33
3 3 333 33 3 3 3 3 3333 3 3
3 3 322 2332 33
23 22 2
1
3
3
33 33 3 33 3 33333 3 33 3 3 33 3 3 32 2222 3 332
2
2 1 2 31 3 31 1
Discriminant Var 2
Discriminant Var 4
33 3 33 3
2 3 2 2
2 3
2
1 1 3 333 3 3 33 23 322 2 2 1
3 3 3 33 3 333 33 22 333 3 13
31
3
31 3113 33 333333 33
33
3 3 2 3 33 32 2 2
2 2 3 3 1 2 23 1 1 3 1
0.5
3 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 13 32 1 1 22 1 2
3
1 11 33 3 3 2 33 2 2 3 3 22 2 1 2321 223 23
33 3 3 113 1 33 3 3 232 2
1
1
11 3113 111 11 3 1
3
1 11311 1111 1 1 1 1
3 3 2
22
22 2 2 2
2
3
2 3
1 2 2 311 213212 132
2 3
2 2 2313 223 12 312 232 21 1 3 2
1 13 133
3
12 3
3 2
133 3 12 3 1
3
2
2322 2 22 2 2 2
1 1
0
1 11 1 3 1 3 3 1 23 32 3 131 2 22 3 1 3 2 2
1 1 1 111 111 1111 2222 331133111
23321
2 3 331 1321121 32 1 23 31
1 1 2 2
2 2 22
2 123
3 331 311 323 3 2 2 3 13 32 3121 112132 32 1 3 3
0.0
1 1 1 11 1 2
2 2 3
31 2 2
321 21 222113 32 211 3 1 12 1 1 3 3 1
2 1 2 1
1 1 1 1
3
1
1 111
111 1
1 1 1
11 1 1 11 11
1 1 2 1
2
22
22
2222 2
2 2
2
1
3
2 11 2
13 2 2
31
3 1121 3 12
11
323
333
2
311
132
1122313
2
12312 221 132
22
22 2
232 1 13
3 2
213 1131
3 2 32 2 31 3 23 11
31 3 2
3
1 1 1
22 2
2
2 1 112221321 32 1 1 31 3 323
-2
1 1 11 33 1 33
111
1 111 11111 1 1 222 22 222 2 3
3 2 1231 21 121333 1
21 112222 3
2
3 3
2 3 3
1 2 3 33 3 3 12 1 23
1 1 11 1 1 2 2 2 22 2 3
2 3
1232 2 1 2 32 2 1 2
1 1 111 1 1
111 1 1
2 3
1 1 2 1 12 1 21 11 3 22
21
1 2
12 2 3222 2 2 32 1 1 1
11 2 2 22 1
1 12121 23 13 1 23 2 3 23 1
1 121 1 1 1 2 1 2 22 2 3 13
11 21 1 21
-4
3 1 1 1 311
1 2 2 121 2 12 2 2 22 11 1
1
2 212 22 22 31 1 2 1 33 1
-1.0
11 1 2 1 222 3 1 2
1 1 2 2 31
1 1 1 21 2
1 1
111
-6
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 -2 -1 0 1 2
Discriminant Var 1 Discriminant Var 3
QTRIFD 01W04W izxp GJz,otxpyFtzylw ItpJF zq Gsp cOL xzopw 6GGpo Gz l

FlxCwp zq Gsp JlIpqzEx xzopw- jsp CztyGF lEp tyopCpyopyG GpFG olGl+ CEzupnGpo
zy Gz Gsp wplotyr GJz nlyzytnlw nzzEotylGpF ’wpqG Clypw(+ lyo Gsp GstEo lyo qzHEGs
’EtrsG Clypw(- jsp FHmnwlFF npyGpEF lEp tyotnlGpo-
PKpEntFpF ?44
NzxCHGlGtzylw NzyFtopElGtzyF
btGs Y GEltytyr nlFpF+ C CEpotnGzEF+ lyo x FHCCzEG IpnGzEF+ Gsp FHCCzEG
IpnGzE xlnstyp EpDHtEpF x˜ ) xY ) xCY zCpElGtzyF+ lFFHxtyr x ≈ Y -
jspA oz yzG Fnlwp Jpww JtGs Y + lwGszHrs nzxCHGlGtzylw FszEGnHGF lEp lIltw!
lmwp ’fwlGG+ %–––(- itynp GspFp lEp pIzwItyr ElCtowA+ Gsp EplopE tF HErpo Gz
FplEns Gsp Jpm qzE Gsp wlGpFG GpnsyzwzrA-
OL EpDHtEpF Y C= ) C˜ zCpElGtzyF+ lF ozpF fOL- jsp nzxCwpKtGA zq
QOL opCpyoF zy Gsp EprEpFFtzy xpGszo HFpo- XlyA GpnsytDHpF lEp wtyplE
ty Y + FHns lF lootGtIp xzopwF lyo XLhi- RpypElw FCwtypF lyo vpEypw!mlFpo
EprEpFFtzy xpGszoF Jtww GACtnlwwA EpDHtEp Y ˜ zCpElGtzyF-
izqGJlEp tF lIltwlmwp qzE ¨GGtyr QOL+ fOL lyo XOL xzopwF ty Gsp h
Clnvlrp Kol+ Jstns tF lwFz lIltwlmwp ty i!f ki-
MtmwtzrElCstn dzGpF
jsp GspzEA mpstyo FHCCzEG IpnGzE xlnstypF tF oHp Gz alCytv lyo tF op!
FnEtmpo ty alCytv ’%––[(- jspEp tF l mHErpzytyr wtGpElGHEp zy iaXF: ly
zywtyp mtmwtzrElCsA+ nEplGpo lyo xltyGltypo mA LwpK ixzwl lyo MpEyslEo
ins6zwvzCq+ nly mp qzHyo lG9
sGGC9##UUU-vpEypw!xlnstypF-zEr-
ZHE GEplGxpyG tF mlFpo zy blsml pG lw- ’=$$$( lyo PIrpytzH pG lw- ’=$$$(+
lyo Gsp GHGzEtlw mA MHErpF ’MHErpF+ %––](-
typlE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF tF oHp Gz QtFspE ’%–“[( lyo hlz ’%–fi“(- jsp
nzyypnGtzy JtGs zCGtxlw FnzEtyr olGpF mlnv lG wplFG Gz MEptxly lyo Tslvl
’%–]?(+ lyo ty l FtxCwp qzEx Gz QtFspE ’%–“[(- jspEp lEp FGEzyr nzyypnGtzyF
JtGs nzEEpFCzyopynp lylwAFtF ’REppylnEp+ %–]?(- jsp opFnEtCGtzy zq 7pKtmwp+
CpylwtBpo lyo xtKGHEp otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF tF Glvpy qEzx SlFGtp pG lw-
’%––?(+ SlFGtp pG lw- ’%––4( lyo SlFGtp lyo jtmFstElyt ’%––[m(+ lyo lww
GsEpp lEp FHxxlEtBpo ty SlFGtp pG lw- ’%––](: Fpp lwFz htCwpA ’%––[(-
PKpEntFpF
PK- %=-% iszJ GslG Gsp nEtGpEtl ’%=-=4( lyo ’%=-]( lEp pDHtIlwpyG-
PK- %=-= iszJ GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz ’%=-=–( tF Gsp Flxp lF Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz
’%=-=4( qzE l ClEGtnHwlE vpEypw-
PK- %=-“ NzyFtopE l xzot¨nlGtzy Gz ’%=-?“( JspEp AzH oz yzG CpylwtBp Gsp
nzyFGlyG- QzExHwlGp Gsp CEzmwpx+ lyo nslElnGpEtBp tGF FzwHGtzy-
PK- %=-? iHCCzFp AzH CpEqzEx l EpoHnpo!FHmFClnp wtyplE otFnEtxtylyG lylw!

AFtF qzE l V!rEzHC CEzmwpx- dzH nzxCHGp Gsp nlyzytnlw IlEtlmwpF zq ot!
?4[ %=- QwpKtmwp OtFnEtxtylyGF
xpyFtzy ≤ V } % rtIpy mA B ˆ kj K+ JspEp k tF Gsp C × xlGEtK zq

otFnEtxtylyG nzpffntpyGF+ lyo C / V tF Gsp otxpyFtzy zq K-
’l( Tq ˆ V } % FszJ GslG
= = = =
‖B } B3v ‖ } ‖B } B3v′ ‖ ˆ ‖K } K
3v ‖b } ‖K } K
3v′ ‖b W
JspEp ‖±‖b opyzGpF XlslwlyzmtF otFGlynp JtGs EpFCpnG Gz Gsp nzIlEt!

lynp b-
’m( Tq ı V } %+ FszJ GslG Gsp Flxp pKCEpFFtzy zy Gsp wpqG xplFHEpF
Gsp otΓpEpynp ty XlslwlyzmtF FDHlEpo otFGlynpF qzE Gsp otFGEtmHGtzyF
CEzupnGpo zyGz Gsp FHmFClnp FClyypo mA k-
PK- %=-4 jsp olGl ty Cszypxp-FHmFpG+ lIltwlmwp qEzx GstF mzzv&F JpmFtGp
sGGC9##UUU!FGlG-FGlyDzEo-poH#PwpxiGlG plEy
nzyFtFGF zq otrtGtBpo wzr!CpEtzozrElxF qzE CszypxpF HGGpEpo mA [$ FCplvpEF+

plns FCplvpE slItyr CEzoHnpo CszypxpF qEzx plns zq Ïp nwlFFpF- TG tF
lCCEzCEtlGp Gz CwzG plns IpnGzE zq =4[ ˜qplGHEpF˙ lrltyFG Gsp qEpDHpyntpF
$8=44-
’l( fEzoHnp l FpClElGp CwzG zq lww Gsp Cszypxp nHEIpF lrltyFG qEpDHpynA
qzE plns nwlFF-
’m( dzH Cwly Gz HFp l yplEpFG CEzGzGACp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy Fnspxp Gz nwlFFtqA
Gsp nHEIpF tyGz Cszypxp nwlFFpF- Ty ClEGtnHwlE+ AzH Jtww HFp l V!xplyF
nwHFGpEtyr lwrzEtGsx ty plns nwlFF ’vKplyFW( ty h(+ lyo Gspy nwlFFtqA
zmFpEIlGtzyF Gz Gsp nwlFF zq Gsp nwzFpFG nwHFGpE npyGpE- jsp nHEIpF lEp
strs!otxpyFtzylw lyo AzH slIp l ElGspE Fxlww FlxCwp!FtBp!Gz!IlEtlmwpF
ElGtz- dzH opntop Gz EpFGEtnG lww Gsp CEzGzGACpF Gz mp FxzzGs qHynGtzyF
zq qEpDHpynA- Ty ClEGtnHwlE+ AzH opntop Gz EpCEpFpyG plns CEzGzGACp x
lF x ˆ Mθ JspEp M tF l =4[ × U xlGEtK zq ylGHElw FCwtyp mlFtF
qHynGtzyF JtGs U vyzGF HytqzExwA nszFpy ty ’$W =44( lyo mzHyolEA
vyzGF lG $ lyo =44- OpFnEtmp szJ Gz CEznppo lylwAGtnlwwA+ lyo ty
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lJlA qEzx Gsp GEltytyr CztyG9
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lCCEzKtxlGtzy wplEytyr ElGpF ’ipnGtzy %%-?-(
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zq l RlHFFtly opyFtGA+ Jstns slF l npyGEzto ’lF ty V!xplyF(+ lyo l nzIlEt!
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Fpp GslG lwGszHrs Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF lEp EzHrswA FtxtwlE+ GszFp qzE Gsp
xtKGHEp xzopw lEp FxzzGspE ’lwGszHrs Gsp CEzGzGACpF lEp ty lCCEzKtxlGpwA
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CEzGzGACp ’tynzEEpnGwA( Gz l Eprtzy ty Gsp yzEGsJpFG+ Gsp RlHFFtly xtKGHEp
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l DHpEA CztyG K$ + Jp ÿo Gsp v GEltytyr CztyGF KWE( W E ˆ %W , , , W v nwzFpFG ty
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K-means - 5 Prototypes per Class
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o oo oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o oo o
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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oo
o o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o
o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o o
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o
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oo o o o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o oo o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o
o o.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o oooo o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
oooo o ooo oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o ooo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
oo oo o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
ooo
o o o oo o
••
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. ..Training . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.170 .....................................................
.. .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Error:
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.. ..Test . . . . Error:
. . . . . . . . . . 0.243 .....................................................
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Gaussian Mixtures - 5 Subclasses per Class
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o oo oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
oo o o
•
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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o oo o
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.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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o o o ooo
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o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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0.30
•
• • • • • • • • • •
0.25
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• • •
Misclassification Errors • •
0.20
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0.15
• • •
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10-fold CV
0.05
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Bayes Error
•
0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of Neighbors
7-Nearest Neighbors
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ooooooo oo o o o
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o o
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oo oo o
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o oo o o o o o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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o o
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oo o ooooo o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
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oooo o ooo oo
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o ooo
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o o o oo
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o o o o o o
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
o o oo oo o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
ooo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o o o oo o
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
o oo
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. ..Training
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. . . . . . . . Error: . . . . . . 0.145
o o .....................................................
.. .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.. ..Test . . . . Error: . . . . . . . . . . 0.225 .....................................................
.. .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
Bayes Error: .....................................................................
0.210 o
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0.5
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0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0 20 40 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of Neighbors Number of Prototypes per Class
Nearest Neighbors / Difficult K-means & LVQ / Difficult

0.60
0.60
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.45
0.45
0.40
0.40
0 20 40 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of Neighbors Number of Prototypes per Class
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Spectral Band 1 Spectral Band 2 Spectral Band 3
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ty Gsp ijLj ZR CEzupnG+ tynwHotyr ag+ NLhj+ ypHElw ypGJzEvF+ wtyplE
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rEplG FHnnpFF+ lyo Gsp EpFHwGtyr nwlFFt¨pE zHGCpEqzExpo lww zGspEF lG Gsp
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lyo ipnGtzy %%-fi- jsp tyCHGF lEp rElAFnlwp txlrpF JtGs %[ × %[ ˆ =4[
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spynp Gsp GJz zmupnGF nly mp qlE lClEG ty PHnwtoply otFGlynp ty Th=4[ -
bp JtFs Gz EpxzIp Gsp pΓpnG zq EzGlGtzy ty xplFHEtyr otFGlynpF mpGJppy
GJz otrtGF zq Gsp Flxp nwlFF- NzyFtopE Gsp FpG zq CtKpw IlwHpF nzyFtFGtyr zq
Gsp zEtrtylw ˜“˙ lyo tGF EzGlGpo IpEFtzyF- jstF tF l zyp!otxpyFtzylw nHEIp ty
Th=4[ + opCtnGpo mA Gsp rEppy nHEIp ClFFtyr GsEzHrs Gsp ˜“˙ ty QtrHEp %“-%$-
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STATLOG results
LDA
Logistic
SMART
QDA
0.15
NewID C4.5
CART Neural
ALLOC80
RBF
LVQ
0.10
K-NN
DANN
0.05
0.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Method
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mA Gsp ijLj ZR CEzupnG- jsp pyGEA OLYY tF l IlEtlyG zq v,yplEpFG yptrsmzEF+
HFtyr ly lolCGtIp xpGEtn ’ipnGtzy %“-3-=(-
QTRIFD 02W8W PKlxCwpF zq rElAFnlwp txlrpF zq slyoJEtGGpy otrtGF-

%“-“ v,YplEpFG,YptrsmzE NwlFFt6pEF ?fi“
−15 −7.5 0 7.5 15
Transformations of 3
3 Tangent
Pixel space
α<− /,1 α<− /,0 α</ α</,0 α</,1
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lyo EzGlGpo IpEFtzyF zq tG- jsp rEppy nHEIp ty Gsp xtoowp zq Gsp 6rHEp opCtnGF
GstF FpG zq EzGlGpo 2 “5 ty =4[,otxpyFtzylw FClnp- jsp Epo wtyp tF Gsp GlyrpyG wtyp
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pDHlGtzy FszJy lG Gsp mzGGzx zq Gsp 6rHEp-
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PHnwtoply otFGlynp mpGJppy Gsp GJz txlrpF+ Jp HFp Gsp FszEGpFG otFGlynp
mpGJppy Gsp GJz nHEIpF- Ty zGspE JzEoF+ Gsp otFGlynp mpGJppy Gsp GJz
txlrpF tF Glvpy Gz mp Gsp FszEGpFG PHnwtoply otFGlynp mpGJppy lyA EzGlGpo
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otFGlynp tF nlwwpo ly tyIlEtlyG xpGEtn-
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IpEA otffnHwG Gz nlwnHwlGp qzE Eplw txlrpF- ipnzyo+ tG lwwzJF wlErp GElyF!
qzExlGtzyF GslG nly wplo Gz CzzE CpEqzExlynp- QzE pKlxCwp l ˜[˙ JzHwo
mp nzyFtopEpo nwzFp Gz l ˜–˙ lqGpE l EzGlGtzy zq %]$◦ - bp yppo Gz EpFGEtnG
lGGpyGtzy Gz Fxlww EzGlGtzyF-
jsp HFp zq GlyrpyG otFGlynp FzwIpF mzGs zq GspFp CEzmwpxF- LF FszJy ty
QtrHEp %“-%$+ Jp nly lCCEzKtxlGp Gsp tyIlEtlynp xlytqzwo zq Gsp txlrp
˜“˙ mA tGF GlyrpyG lG Gsp zEtrtylw txlrp- jstF GlyrpyG nly mp nzxCHGpo
mA pFGtxlGtyr Gsp otEpnGtzy IpnGzE qEzx Fxlww EzGlGtzyF zq Gsp txlrp+ zE mA
xzEp FzCstFGtnlGpo FClGtlw FxzzGstyr xpGszoF ’PKpEntFp %“-?-( QzE wlErp
EzGlGtzyF+ Gsp GlyrpyG txlrp yz wzyrpE wzzvF wtvp l ˜“+˙ Fz Gsp CEzmwpx
JtGs wlErp GElyFqzExlGtzyF tF lwwpItlGpo-
?fi? %“- fEzGzGACpF lyo YplEpFG,YptrsmzEF
uElyFDBExlGtByF
BD Kt
etFGlynp mpGkppy
GElyFDBExpo
ulyrpyG otFGlynp Kt lyo Kt′
Kt
Kt′
PHnwtoply otFGlynp
mpGkppy Kt lyo Kt′
uElyFDBExlGtByF
BD Kt′
QTRIFD 02W00W jlyrpyG otFGlynp nzxCHGlGtzy qzE GJz txlrpF Kt lyo Kt′ -
hlGspE Gsly HFtyr Gsp PHnwtoply otFGlynp mpGJppy Kt lyo Kt′ + zE Gsp FszEGpFG
otFGlynp mpGJppy Gsp GJz nHEIpF+ Jp HFp Gsp FszEGpFG otFGlynp mpGJppy Gsp GJz
GlyrpyG wtypF-
jsp topl Gspy tF Gz nzxCHGp Gsp tyIlEtlyG GlyrpyG wtyp qzE plns GEltytyr
txlrp- QzE l DHpEA txlrp Gz mp nwlFFt¨po+ Jp nzxCHGp tGF tyIlEtlyG GlyrpyG
wtyp+ lyo ÿo Gsp nwzFpFG wtyp Gz tG lxzyr Gsp wtypF ty Gsp GEltytyr FpG- jsp
nwlFF ’otrtG( nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz GstF nwzFpFG wtyp tF zHE CEpotnGpo nwlFF qzE Gsp
DHpEA txlrp- Ty QtrHEp %“-%% Gsp GJz GlyrpyG wtypF tyGpEFpnG+ mHG GstF tF zywA
mpnlHFp Jp slIp mppy qzEnpo Gz oElJ l GJz!otxpyFtzylw EpCEpFpyGlGtzy zq
Gsp lnGHlw =4[!otxpyFtzylw FtGHlGtzy- Ty Th=4[ Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA zq GJz FHns
wtypF tyGpEFpnGtyr tF pΓpnGtIpwA BpEz-
YzJ l FtxCwpE JlA Gz lnstpIp GstF tyIlEtlynp JzHwo mp Gz loo tyGz Gsp
GEltytyr FpG l yHxmpE zq EzGlGpo IpEFtzyF zq plns GEltytyr txlrp+ lyo Gspy
uHFG HFp l FGlyolEo yplEpFG!yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨pE- jstF topl tF nlwwpo ˜styGF˙ ty
LmH!XzFGlql ’%––4(+ lyo JzEvF Jpww Jspy Gsp FClnp zq tyIlEtlynpF tF Fxlww-
iz qlE Jp slIp CEpFpyGpo l FtxCwt¨po IpEFtzy zq Gsp CEzmwpx- Ty lootGtzy Gz
EzGlGtzy+ GspEp lEp FtK zGspE GACpF zq GElyFqzExlGtzyF HyopE Jstns Jp JzHwo
wtvp zHE nwlFFt¨pE Gz mp tyIlEtlyG- jspEp lEp GElyFwlGtzy ’GJz otEpnGtzyF(+
Fnlwtyr ’GJz otEpnGtzyF(+ FsppE+ lyo nslElnGpE GstnvypFF- Spynp Gsp nHEIpF
lyo GlyrpyG wtypF ty QtrHEpF %“-%$ lyo %“-%% lEp lnGHlwwA fi!otxpyFtzylw
xlytqzwoF lyo sACpECwlypF- TG tF tyqplFtmwp Gz loo GElyFqzExpo IpEFtzyF
zq plns GEltytyr txlrp Gz nlCGHEp lww zq GspFp CzFFtmtwtGtpF- jsp GlyrpyG
xlytqzwoF CEzItop ly pwprlyG JlA zq nlCGHEtyr Gsp tyIlEtlynpF-
jlmwp %“-% FszJF Gsp GpFG xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE qzE l CEzmwpx JtGs fi=–%
GEltytyr txlrpF lyo =$$fi GpFG otrtGF ’Gsp k-i- fzFGlw ipEItnpF olGlmlFp(+ qzE
l nlEpqHwwA nzyFGEHnGpo ypHElw ypGJzEv+ lyo FtxCwp %!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE lyo
%“-? LolCGtIp YplEpFG,YptrsmzE cpGszoF ?fi4
uLM D 02W0W jpFG pEEzE ElGpF qzE Gsp slyoJEtGGpy eTf nzop CEzmwpx-
cpGszo PEEzE ElGp
YpHElw,ypG /-/?–
%,yplEpFG,yptrsmzE.PHnwtoply otFGlynp /-/44
%,yplEpFG,yptrsmzE.GlyrpyG otFGlynp /-/=[
GlyrpyG otFGlynp %!yplEpFG!yptrsmzE EHwpF- jsp GlyrpyG otFGlynp yplEpFG!

yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨pE JzEvF EpxlEvlmwA Jpww+ JtGs GpFG pEEzE ElGpF yplE GszFp
qzE Gsp sHxly pAp ’GstF tF l yzGzEtzHFwA otffnHwG GpFG FpG(- Ty CElnGtnp+
tG GHEypo zHG GslG yplEpFG!yptrsmzEF lEp Gzz FwzJ qzE zywtyp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
ty GstF lCCwtnlGtzy ’Fpp ipnGtzy %“-4(+ lyo ypHElw ypGJzEv nwlFFt¨pEF JpEp
FHmFpDHpyGwA opIpwzCpo Gz xtxtn tG-
0“-? LolCGtIp dplEpFG,dptrsmzE cpGszoF

bspy yplEpFG!yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy tF nlEEtpo zHG ty l strs!otxpyFtzylw
qplGHEp FClnp+ Gsp yplEpFG yptrsmzEF zq l CztyG nly mp IpEA qlE lJlA+ nlHFtyr
mtlF lyo oprElotyr Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp EHwp-
jz DHlyGtqA GstF+ nzyFtopE Y olGl CztyGF HytqzExwA otFGEtmHGpo ty Gsp HytG
nHmp ”} =0 W =0 flC - pG h mp Gsp ElotHF zq l %!yplEpFG!yptrsmzEszzo npyGpEpo lG
Gsp zEtrty- jspy
& % 0.Y '0.C
xpotly’h( ˆ IC}0.C % } W ’%“-fi(
=
JspEp IC EC tF Gsp IzwHxp zq Gsp FCspEp zq ElotHF E ty C otxpyFtzyF- Qtr!
HEp %“-%= FszJF Gsp xpotly ElotHF qzE IlEtzHF GEltytyr FlxCwp FtBpF lyo
otxpyFtzyF- bp Fpp GslG xpotly ElotHF DHtnvwA lCCEzlnspF $,4+ Gsp otF!
Glynp Gz Gsp porp zq Gsp nHmp-
bslG nly mp ozyp lmzHG GstF CEzmwpx¯ NzyFtopE Gsp GJz!nwlFF FtGHlGtzy
ty QtrHEp %“-%“- jspEp lEp GJz qplGHEpF+ lyo l yplEpFG!yptrsmzEszzo lG
l DHpEA CztyG tF opCtnGpo mA Gsp ntEnHwlE Eprtzy- TxCwtntG ty yplE!yptrsmzE
nwlFFt¨nlGtzy tF Gsp lFFHxCGtzy GslG Gsp nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF lEp EzHrswA nzy!
FGlyG ty Gsp yptrsmzEszzo+ lyo spynp FtxCwp lIpElrpF rtIp rzzo pFGtxlGpF-
SzJpIpE+ ty GstF pKlxCwp Gsp nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF IlEA zywA ty Gsp szEtBzyGlw
otEpnGtzy- Tq Jp vypJ GstF+ Jp JzHwo FGEpGns Gsp yptrsmzEszzo ty Gsp IpEGt!
nlw otEpnGtzy+ lF FszJy mA Gsp Glww EpnGlyrHwlE Eprtzy- jstF Jtww EpoHnp Gsp
mtlF zq zHE pFGtxlGp lyo wplIp Gsp IlEtlynp Gsp Flxp-
Ty rpypElw+ GstF nlwwF qzE lolCGtyr Gsp xpGEtn HFpo ty yplEpFG!yptrsmzE
nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ Fz GslG Gsp EpFHwGtyr yptrsmzEszzoF FGEpGns zHG ty otEpnGtzyF
qzE Jstns Gsp nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF ozy&G nslyrp xHns- Ty strs!otxpyFtzylw
qplGHEp FClnp+ Gsp nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF xtrsG nslyrp zywA l wzJ!otxpyFtzylw
FHmFClnp lyo spynp GspEp nly mp nzyFtopElmwp loIlyGlrp Gz lolCGtyr Gsp
xpGEtn-
?fi[ %“- fEzGzGACpF lyo YplEpFG,YptrsmzEF
0.6
0.5
N=1,000
0.4
N=100 N=10,000
Median Radius
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0 5 10 15
Dimension
QTRIFD 02W01W cpotly ElotHF zq l %,yplEpFG,yptrsmzEszzo+ qzE HytqzEx olGl

JtGs Y zmFpEIlGtzyF ty C otxpyFtzyF-
5-Nearest Neighborhoods
o oo
o
o
o o o
o
o
o
o o
o o
• oo o
o o
o
o o
o
o
QTRIFD 02W02W jsp CztyGF lEp HytqzEx ty Gsp nHmp+ JtGs Gsp IpEGtnlw wtyp FpCl,
ElGtyr nwlFF Epo lyo rEppy- jsp IpEGtnlw FGEtC opyzGpF Gsp 4,yplEpFG,yptrsmzE Eprtzy
HFtyr zywA Gsp szEtBzyGlw nzzEotylGp Gz 6yo Gsp yplEpFG,yptrsmzEF qzE Gsp GlErpG
CztyG ’Fzwto ozG(- jsp FCspEp FszJF Gsp 4,yplEpFG,yptrsmzE Eprtzy HFtyr mzGs nz,
zEotylGpF+ lyo Jp Fpp ty GstF nlFp tG slF pKGpyopo tyGz Gsp nwlFF,Epo Eprtzy ’lyo
tF ozxtylGpo mA Gsp JEzyr nwlFF ty GstF tyFGlynp(-
%“-? LolCGtIp YplEpFG,YptrsmzE cpGszoF ?fifi
QEtpoxly ’%––?l( CEzCzFpo l xpGszo ty Jstns EpnGlyrHwlE yptrsmzE!

szzoF lEp qzHyo lolCGtIpwA mA FHnnpFFtIpwA nlEItyr lJlA porpF zq l mzK
nzyGltytyr Gsp GEltytyr olGl- SpEp Jp opFnEtmp Gsp otFnEtxtylyG lolCGtIp
yplEpFG,yptrsmzE ’OLYY( EHwp zq SlFGtp lyo jtmFstElyt ’%––[l(- PlEwtpE+
EpwlGpo CEzCzFlwF lCCplE ty iszEG lyo QHvHylrl ’%–]%( lyo XAwpF lyo
Slyo ’%––$(-
LG plns DHpEA CztyG l yptrsmzEszzo zq FlA 4$ CztyGF tF qzExpo+ lyo Gsp
nwlFF otFGEtmHGtzy lxzyr Gsp CztyGF tF HFpo Gz opntop szJ Gz opqzEx Gsp
yptrsmzEszzo1GslG tF+ Gz lolCG Gsp xpGEtn- jsp lolCGpo xpGEtn tF Gspy
HFpo ty l yplEpFG!yptrsmzE EHwp lG Gsp DHpEA CztyG- jsHF lG plns DHpEA
CztyG l CzGpyGtlwwA otΓpEpyG xpGEtn tF HFpo-
Ty QtrHEp %“-%“ tG tF nwplE GslG Gsp yptrsmzEszzo FszHwo mp FGEpGnspo ty
Gsp otEpnGtzy zEGszrzylw Gz wtyp uztytyr Gsp nwlFF npyGEztoF- jstF otEpnGtzy
lwFz nztyntopF JtGs Gsp wtyplE otFnEtxtylyG mzHyolEA+ lyo tF Gsp otEpnGtzy
ty Jstns Gsp nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGtpF nslyrp Gsp wplFG- Ty rpypElw GstF otEpnGtzy
zq xlKtxHx nslyrp Jtww yzG mp zEGszrzylw Gz Gsp wtyp uztytyr Gsp nwlFF npy!
GEztoF ’Fpp QtrHEp ?-– zy Clrp %%[-( LFFHxtyr l wznlw otFnEtxtylyG xzopw+
Gsp tyqzExlGtzy nzyGltypo ty Gsp wznlw JtGsty! lyo mpGJppy!nwlFF nzIlEt!
lynp xlGEtnpF tF lww GslG tF yppopo Gz opGpExtyp Gsp zCGtxlw FslCp zq Gsp
yptrsmzEszzo-
jsp otFnEtxtylyG lolCGtIp yplEpFG,yptrsmzE ’OLYY( xpGEtn lG l DHpEA
CztyG K$ tF opÿpo mA
O’KW K$ ( ˆ ’K } K$ (j :’K } K$ (W ’%“-](
JspEp
: ˆ b}0.= ”b}0.= Mb}0.= ) ǫTflb}0.=

ˆ b}0.= ”M{ ) ǫTflb}0.= , ’%“-–(
(V
SpEp b tF Gsp Czzwpo JtGsty!nwlFF nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK vˆ0 πv bv lyo M
(V
tF Gsp mpGJppy nwlFF nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK Kv } K
vˆ0 πv ’3 3(’3 3(j + JtGs
Kv } K
b lyo M nzxCHGpo HFtyr zywA Gsp 4$ yplEpFG yptrsmzEF lEzHyo K$ - LqGpE
nzxCHGlGtzy zq Gsp xpGEtn+ tG tF HFpo ty l yplEpFG!yptrsmzE EHwp lG K$ -
jstF nzxCwtnlGpo qzExHwl tF lnGHlwwA DHtGp FtxCwp ty tGF zCpElGtzy- TG ËFG
FCspEpF Gsp olGl JtGs EpFCpnG Gz b+ lyo Gspy FGEpGnspF Gsp yptrsmzEszzo
ty Gsp BpEz!ptrpyIlwHp otEpnGtzyF zq M{ ’Gsp mpGJppy!xlGEtK qzE Gsp FCspEpo
olGl (- jstF xlvpF FpyFp+ Ftynp wznlwwA Gsp zmFpEIpo nwlFF xplyF oz yzG otq!
qpE ty GspFp otEpnGtzyF- jsp ǫ ClElxpGpE EzHyoF Gsp yptrsmzEszzo+ qEzx ly
tyÿtGp FGEtC Gz ly pwwtCFzto+ Gz lIzto HFtyr CztyGF qlE lJlA qEzx Gsp DHpEA
CztyG- jsp IlwHp zq ǫ ˆ % FppxF Gz JzEv Jpww ty rpypElw- QtrHEp %“-%? FszJF
Gsp EpFHwGtyr yptrsmzEszzoF qzE l CEzmwpx JspEp Gsp nwlFFpF qzEx GJz nzy!
npyGEtn ntEnwpF- YzGtnp szJ Gsp yptrsmzEszzoF FGEpGns zHG zEGszrzylwwA Gz
Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF Jspy mzGs nwlFFpF lEp CEpFpyG ty Gsp yptrsmzEszzo-
Ty Gsp CHEp EprtzyF JtGs zywA zyp nwlFF+ Gsp yptrsmzEszzoF Epxlty ntEnHwlE:
?fi] %“- fEzGzGACpF lyo YplEpFG,YptrsmzEF
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o ooo o o oo oo oooo oo o
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o o ooo o o ooooo o o ooo oooo
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o o o
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o o o
o o o o o oo o
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QTRIFD 02W03W YptrsmzEszzoF qzHyo mA Gsp OLYY CEznpoHEp+ lG IlEtzHF DHpEA

CztyGF ’npyGpEF zq Gsp nEzFFpF(- jspEp lEp GJz nwlFFpF ty Gsp olGl+ JtGs zyp nwlFF
FHEEzHyotyr Gsp zGspE- 4/ yplEpFG,yptrsmzEF JpEp HFpo Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp wznlw xpG,
EtnF- iszJy lEp Gsp EpFHwGtyr xpGEtnF HFpo Gz qzEx %4,yplEpFG,yptrsmzEszzoF-
ty GspFp nlFpF Gsp mpGJppy xlGEtK M ˆ $+ lyo Gsp : ty ’%“-]( tF Gsp topyGtGA
xlGEtK-
0“-?-0 PKlxCwp
SpEp Jp rpypElGp GJz!nwlFF olGl ty Gpy otxpyFtzyF+ lylwzrzHF Gz Gsp GJz!
otxpyFtzylw pKlxCwp zq QtrHEp %“-%?- Lww Gpy CEpotnGzEF ty nwlFF % lEp ty!
opCpyopyG FGlyolEo yzExlw+ nzyotGtzypo zy Gsp ElotHF mptyr rEplGpE Gsly
==-? lyo wpFF Gsly ?$+ Jstwp Gsp CEpotnGzEF ty nwlFF = lEp tyopCpyopyG FGly!
olEo yzExlw JtGszHG Gsp EpFGEtnGtzy- jspEp lEp =4$ zmFpEIlGtzyF ty plns
nwlFF- Spynp Gsp ËFG nwlFF lwxzFG nzxCwpGpwA FHEEzHyoF Gsp Fpnzyo nwlFF ty
Gsp qHww Gpy!otxpyFtzylw FClnp-
Ty GstF pKlxCwp GspEp lEp yz CHEp yztFp IlEtlmwpF+ Gsp vtyo GslG l yplEpFG!
yptrsmzE FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy EHwp xtrsG mp lmwp Gz Jppo zHG- LG lyA rtIpy
CztyG ty Gsp qplGHEp FClnp+ Gsp nwlFF otFnEtxtylGtzy znnHEF lwzyr zywA zyp
otEpnGtzy- SzJpIpE+ GstF otEpnGtzy nslyrpF lF Jp xzIp lnEzFF Gsp qplGHEp
FClnp lyo lww IlEtlmwpF lEp txCzEGlyG FzxpJspEp ty Gsp FClnp-
QtrHEp %“-%4 FszJF mzKCwzGF zq Gsp GpFG pEEzE ElGpF zIpE Gpy EplwtBl!
GtzyF+ qzE FGlyolEo 4!yplEpFG!yptrsmzEF+ ag+ lyo otFnEtxtylyG lolCGtIp
4!yplEpFG!yptrsmzEF- bp HFpo 4$ CEzGzGACpF CpE nwlFF qzE ag+ Gz xlvp
tG nzxClElmwp Gz 4 yplEpFG!yptrsmzEF ’Ftynp =4$.4 ˆ 4$(- jsp lolCGtIp
xpGEtn Ftryt¨nlyGwA EpoHnpF Gsp pEEzE ElGp+ nzxClEpo Gz ag zE FGlyolEo
yplEpFG!yptrsmzEF-
%“-? LolCGtIp YplEpFG,YptrsmzE cpGszoF ?fi–
0.4
0.3
Test Error
0.2
0.1
0.0
N
N
AN
5N
LV
D
QTRIFD 02W04W jpy,otxpyFtzylw FtxHwlGpo pKlxCwp9 mzKCwzGF zq Gsp GpFG pEEzE
ElGpF zIpE Gpy EplwtBlGtzyF+ qzE FGlyolEo 4,yplEpFG,yptrsmzEF+ ag JtGs 4/ npyGpEF+
lyo otFnEtxtylyG,lolCGtIp 4,yplEpFG,yptrsmzEF
0“-?-1 Rwzmlw OtxpyFtzy hpoHnGtzy qzE dplEpFG,dptrsmzEF

jsp otFnEtxtylyG!lolCGtIp yplEpFG!yptrsmzE xpGszo nlEEtpF zHG wznlw ot!
xpyFtzy EpoHnGtzy1GslG tF+ otxpyFtzy EpoHnGtzy FpClElGpwA lG plns DHpEA
CztyG- Ty xlyA CEzmwpxF Jp nly lwFz mpyp¨G qEzx rwzmlw otxpyFtzy Ep!
oHnGtzy+ GslG tF+ lCCwA l yplEpFG!yptrsmzE EHwp ty Fzxp zCGtxlwwA nszFpy
FHmFClnp zq Gsp zEtrtylw qplGHEp FClnp- QzE pKlxCwp+ FHCCzFp GslG Gsp GJz
nwlFFpF qzEx GJz ypFGpo FCspEpF ty qzHE otxpyFtzyF zq qplGHEp FClnp+ lyo
GspEp lEp ly lootGtzylw FtK yztFp qplGHEpF JszFp otFGEtmHGtzy tF tyopCpyopyG
zq nwlFF- jspy Jp JzHwo wtvp Gz otFnzIpE Gsp txCzEGlyG qzHE!otxpyFtzylw
FHmFClnp+ lyo nlEEA zHG yplEpFG!yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ty GslG EpoHnpo FHm!
FClnp- SlFGtp lyo jtmFstElyt ’%––[l( otFnHFF l IlEtlGtzy zq Gsp otFnEtxtylyG!
lolCGtIp yplEpFG!yptrsmzE xpGszo qzE GstF CHECzFp- LG plns GEltytyr CztyG
Kt + Gsp mpGJppy!npyGEztoF FHx zq FDHlEpF xlGEtK Mt tF nzxCHGpo+ lyo Gspy
GspFp xlGEtnpF lEp lIpElrpo zIpE lww GEltytyr CztyGF9
∑Y
3 ˆ %
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pG p0 W p= W , , , W pC mp Gsp ptrpyIpnGzEF zq Gsp xlGEtK M+
Gz FxlwwpFG ptrpyIlwHp θv - jspy GspFp ptrpyIpnGzEF FCly Gsp zCGtxlw FHm!
FClnpF qzE rwzmlw FHmFClnp EpoHnGtzy- jsp opEtIlGtzy tF mlFpo zy Gsp qlnG
GslG Gsp mpFG Elyv! lCCEzKtxlGtzy Gz M+ 3 M35 7 ˆ ( j
ℓˆ0 θℓ pℓ pℓ + FzwIpF Gsp
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itynp plns Mt nzyGltyF tyqzExlGtzy zy ’l( Gsp wznlw otFnEtxtylyG FHmFClnp+

lyo ’m( Gsp FGEpyrGs zq otFnEtxtylGtzy ty GslG FHmFClnp+ ’%“-%%( nly mp Fppy
?]/ %“- fEzGzGACpF lyo YplEpFG,YptrsmzEF
lF l JlA zq ÿotyr Gsp mpFG lCCEzKtxlGtyr FHmFClnp zq otxpyFtzy Gz l

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MpFtopF Gsp EpFGEtnGtIp qzEx zq Gsp olGl Gz Jstns GspA nly mp lCCwtpo+ lF!
FzntlGtzy EHwpF slIp zGspE wtxtGlGtzyF- NEtGtnlw Gz nzxCHGlGtzylw qplFtmtwtGA
tF Gsp FHCCzEG GsEpFszwo ’%?-[(- jsp yHxmpE zq FzwHGtzy tGpx FpGF+ GsptE FtBp+
lyo Gsp yHxmpE zq ClFFpF EpDHtEpo zIpE Gsp olGl nly rEzJ pKCzypyGtlwwA
JtGs opnEplFtyr FtBp zq GstF wzJpE mzHyo- jsHF+ EHwpF JtGs strs nzyöpynp
zE wtqG+ mHG wzJ FHCCzEG+ Jtww yzG mp otFnzIpEpo- QzE pKlxCwp+ l strs nzy¨!
opynp EHwp FHns lF Izovl ⇒ nlItlE Jtww yzG mp HynzIpEpo zJtyr Gz Gsp wzJ
FlwpF IzwHxp zq Gsp nzyFpDHpyG nlItlE-
0?-1-“ PKlxCwp9 clEvpG MlFvpG LylwAFtF

bp twwHFGElGp Gsp HFp zq LCEtzEt zy l xzopElGpwA FtBpo opxzrElCstnF olGl
mlFp- jstF olGl FpG nzyFtFGF zq Y ˆ –?$– DHpFGtzyyltEpF ¨wwpo zHG mA FszC!
Ctyr xlww nHFGzxpEF ty Gsp ily QElyntFnz MlA LEpl ’TxClnG hpFzHEnpF+ Tyn-+
NzwHxmHF ZS+ %–]fi(- SpEp Jp HFp lyFJpEF Gz Gsp ËFG %? DHpFGtzyF+ EpwlG!
tyr Gz opxzrElCstnF+ qzE twwHFGElGtzy- jspFp DHpFGtzyF lEp wtFGpo ty jlmwp
%?-%- jsp olGl lEp Fppy Gz nzyFtFG zq l xtKGHEp zq zEotylw lyo ’HyzEopEpo(
nlGprzEtnlw IlEtlmwpF+ xlyA zq Gsp wlGGpE slItyr xzEp Gsly l qpJ IlwHpF-
jspEp lEp xlyA xtFFtyr IlwHpF-
bp HFpo l qEppJlEp txCwpxpyGlGtzy zq Gsp LCEtzEt lwrzEtGsx oHp Gz NsEtF!
Gtly MzErpwG0 - LqGpE EpxzItyr zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGs xtFFtyr IlwHpF+ plns zEotylw
CEpotnGzE JlF nHG lG tGF xpotly lyo nzopo mA GJz oHxxA IlEtlmwpF: plns
nlGprzEtnlw CEpotnGzE JtGs v nlGprzEtpF JlF nzopo mA v oHxxA IlEtlmwpF-
jstF EpFHwGpo ty l []fi[ × 4$ xlGEtK zq []fi[ zmFpEIlGtzyF zy 4$ oHxxA
IlEtlmwpF-
jsp lwrzEtGsx qzHyo l GzGlw zq [=]] lFFzntlGtzy EHwpF+ tyIzwItyr ≤ 4
CEpotnGzEF+ JtGs FHCCzEG zq lG wplFG %$0- kyopEFGlyotyr GstF wlErp FpG zq
EHwpF tF tGFpwq l nslwwpyrtyr olGl lylwAFtF GlFv- bp Jtww yzG lGGpxCG GstF spEp+
mHG zywA twwHFGElGp ty QtrHEp %?-= Gsp EpwlGtIp qEpDHpynA zq plns oHxxA
IlEtlmwp ty Gsp olGl ’GzC( lyo Gsp lFFzntlGtzy EHwpF ’mzGGzx(- fEpIlwpyG
nlGprzEtpF Gpyo Gz lCCplE xzEp zqGpy ty Gsp EHwpF+ qzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp ËFG
nlGprzEA ty wlyrHlrp ’PyrwtFs(- SzJpIpE+ zGspEF FHns lF znnHClGtzy lEp
HyopE!EpCEpFpyGpo+ JtGs Gsp pKnpCGtzy zq Gsp ËFG lyo ¨qGs wpIpw-
SpEp lEp GsEpp pKlxCwpF zq lFFzntlGtzy EHwpF qzHyo mA Gsp LCEtzEt lwrz!
EtGsx9
LFFzntlGtzy EHwp 09 iHCCzEG =40+ nzyöpynp ––-fi0 lyo wtqG %-$“-
0 ipp shhC9..OSMMA-nF-Syt!alropmSEr-op.·mzErpwh-
Relative Frequency in Association Rules Relative Frequency in Data
0.0 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.0 0.02 0.04 0.06
0
0
income income
sex sex
marstat marstat
age age
10
10
educ educ
mA Gsp LCEtzEt lwrzEtGsx ’mzGGzx(-

occup occup
20
20
yrs−bay yrs−bay
dualinc dualinc
Attribute
Attribute
perhous perhous
peryoung peryoung
30
30
house house
typehome typehome
40
40
ethnic ethnic
%?-= LFFzntlGtzy hHwpF
language language
50
50
?–“
QTRIFD 03W1W clEvpG mlFvpG lylwAFtF9 EpwlGtIp qEpDHpynA zq plns oHxxA IlEt,
lmwp ’nzotyr ly tyCHG nlGprzEA( ty Gsp olGl ’GzC(+ lyo Gsp lFFzntlGtzy EHwpF qzHyo
?–? %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
uLM D 03W0W TyCHGF qzE Gsp opxzrElCstn olGl-
QplGHEp OpxzrElCstn . alwHpF jACp
% ipK = NlGprzEtnlw
= XlEtGlw FGlGHF 4 NlGprzEtnlw
“ Lrp fi ZEotylw
? PoHnlGtzy [ ZEotylw
4 ZnnHClGtzy – NlGprzEtnlw
[ Tynzxp – ZEotylw
fi dplEF ty MlA LEpl 4 ZEotylw
] OHlw tynzxpF “ NlGprzEtnlw
– YHxmpE ty szHFpszwo – ZEotylw
%$ YHxmpE zq nstwoEpy – ZEotylw
%% SzHFpszwopE FGlGHF “ NlGprzEtnlw
%= jACp zq szxp 4 NlGprzEtnlw
%“ PGsytn nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ] NlGprzEtnlw
%? lyrHlrp ty szxp “ NlGprzEtnlw
[ ]
yHxmpE ty szHFpszwo ˆ %
yHxmpE zq nstwoEpy ˆ /
⇓
wlyrHlrp ty szxp ˆ PyrwtFs
LFFzntlGtzy EHwp ˆ9 iHCCzEG %“-?0+ nzyöpynp ]$-]0+ lyo wtqG =-%“-

 
 szHFpszwopE FGlGHF ˆ zJy 
znnHClGtzy ˆ ·CEzqpFFtzylw.xlylrpEtlw•
⇓
tynzxp ≥ ?/)///
LFFzntlGtzy EHwp 29 iHCCzEG =[-40+ nzyöpynp ]=-]0 lyo wtqG =-%4-

 
 tynzxp ı ?/)/// 
 
 xlEtGlw FGlGHF ˆ yzG xlEEtpo 
yHxmpE zq nstwoEpy ˆ /
⇓
poHnlGtzy ∈
. ·nzwwprp rEloHlGp) rEloHlGp FGHoA•
%?-= LFFzntlGtzy hHwpF ?–4
bp nszFp Gsp ËFG lyo GstEo EHwpF mlFpo zy GsptE strs FHCCzEG- jsp Fpnzyo
EHwp tF ly lFFzntlGtzy EHwp JtGs l strs!tynzxp nzyFpDHpyG+ lyo nzHwo mp
HFpo Gz GEA Gz GlErpG strs!tynzxp tyotItoHlwF-
LF FGlGpo lmzIp+ Jp nEplGpo oHxxA IlEtlmwpF qzE plns nlGprzEA zq Gsp
tyCHG CEpotnGzEF+ qzE pKlxCwp+ e0 ˆ T’tynzxp ı /?$W $$$( lyo e= ˆ
T’tynzxp ≥ /?$W $$$( qzE mpwzJ lyo lmzIp Gsp xpotly tynzxp- Tq Jp JpEp
tyGpEpFGpo zywA ty ÿotyr lFFzntlGtzyF JtGs Gsp strs!tynzxp nlGprzEA+ Jp
JzHwo tynwHop e= mHG yzG e0 - jstF tF zqGpy Gsp nlFp ty lnGHlw xlEvpG mlFvpG
CEzmwpxF+ JspEp Jp lEp tyGpEpFGpo ty ÿotyr lFFzntlGtzyF JtGs Gsp CEpFpynp
zq l EpwlGtIpwA ElEp tGpx+ mHG yzG lFFzntlGtzyF JtGs tGF lmFpynp-
0?-1-? kyFHCpEItFpo lF iHCpEItFpo plEytyr

SpEp Jp otFnHFF l GpnsytDHp qzE GElyFqzExtyr Gsp opyFtGA pFGtxlGtzy CEzm!
wpx tyGz zyp zq FHCpEItFpo qHynGtzy lCCEzKtxlGtzy- jstF qzExF Gsp mlFtF
qzE Gsp rpypElwtBpo lFFzntlGtzy EHwpF opFnEtmpo ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy-
pG r’K( mp Gsp HyvyzJy olGl CEzmlmtwtGA opyFtGA Gz mp pFGtxlGpo+ lyo
r$ ’K( mp l FCpnt¨po CEzmlmtwtGA opyFtGA qHynGtzy HFpo qzE EpqpEpynp- QzE pK!
lxCwp+ r$ ’K( xtrsG mp Gsp HytqzEx opyFtGA zIpE Gsp Elyrp zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF-
ZGspE CzFFtmtwtGtpF lEp otFnHFFpo mpwzJ- jsp olGl FpG K0 W K= W , , , W KY tF CEp!
FHxpo Gz mp ly t-t-o- Elyozx FlxCwp oElJy qEzx r’K(- L FlxCwp zq FtBp Y$
nly mp oElJy qEzx r$ ’K( HFtyr XzyGp NlEwz xpGszoF- fzzwtyr GspFp GJz
olGl FpGF+ lyo lFFtrytyr xlFF J ˆ Y$ .’Y ) Y$ ( Gz GszFp oElJy qEzx r’K(+
lyo J$ ˆ Y.’Y ) Y$ ( Gz GszFp oElJy qEzx r$ ’K(+ EpFHwGF ty l Elyozx
FlxCwp oElJy qEzx Gsp xtKGHEp opyFtGA ’r’K( ) r$ ’K(( .=- Tq zyp lFFtryF
Gsp IlwHp d ˆ % Gz plns FlxCwp CztyG oElJy qEzx r’K( lyo d ˆ $ GszFp
oElJy qEzx r$ ’K(+ Gspy
r’K(
<’K( ˆ P’d K K( ˆ
r’K( ) r$ ’K(
r’K(.r$ ’K(
ˆ ’%?-%$(
% ) r’K(.r$ ’K(
nly mp pFGtxlGpo mA FHCpEItFpo wplEytyr HFtyr Gsp nzxmtypo FlxCwp
’A0 W K0 (W ’A= W K= (W , , , W ’AY )Y$ W KY )Y$ ( ’%?-%%(
lF GEltytyr olGl- jsp EpFHwGtyr pFGtxlGp < —’K( nly mp tyIpEGpo Gz CEzItop ly
pFGtxlGp qzE r’K(
<—’K(
r—’K( ˆ r$ ’K( , ’%?-%=(
%}< —’K(
RpypElwtBpo IpEFtzyF zq wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy ’ipnGtzy ?-?( lEp pFCpntlwwA Jpww
FHtGpo qzE GstF lCCwtnlGtzy Ftynp Gsp wzr!zooF+
r’K(
q ’K( ˆ wzr W ’%?-%“(
r$ ’K(
lEp pFGtxlGpo otEpnGwA- Ty GstF nlFp zyp slF
?–[ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
• •• ••
•• • • •• ••• • •
6
• • •• • • •
• • • • •• • • •• ••
• • ••
•
• • •• • • • •• • •• • •• •••
4 •• •• • •• • • • • •
4
•• •• • • • ••• • • • ••
• •• • • • • •• •• • •• •• ••• • • • •• ••
•• • • •• • ••• • • • • •• ••• •• • • • • •• • • •
y=
y=
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•• ••• •••••• ••• •• ••• • •• ••• •••••• •• ••••• • ••• • ••• • •••• • ••
2
2
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• •
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•
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-1 0 1 2 -1 0 1 2
y0 y0
QTRIFD 03W2W OpyFtGA pFGtxlGtzy Itl nwlFFt6nlGtzy- ’ pqG Clypw9( jEltytyr FpG
zq =// olGl CztyGF- ’htrsG Clypw9( jEltytyr FpG CwHF =// EpqpEpynp olGl CztyGF+
rpypElGpo HytqzExwA zIpE Gsp EpnGlyrwp nzyGltytyr Gsp GEltytyr olGl- jsp GEltytyr
FlxCwp JlF wlmpwpo lF nwlFF %+ lyo Gsp EpqpEpynp FlxCwp nwlFF /+ lyo l FpxtClEl,
xpGEtn wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw JlF 6G Gz Gsp olGl- izxp nzyGzHEF qzE r1’K( lEp
FszJy-
1
r—’K( ˆ r$ ’K( pq WK( , ’%?-%?(
Ly pKlxCwp tF FszJy ty QtrHEp %?-“- bp rpypElGpo l GEltytyr FpG zq FtBp
=$$ FszJy ty Gsp wpqG Clypw- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp EpqpEpynp olGl ’mwHp(
rpypElGpo HytqzExwA zIpE Gsp EpnGlyrwp nzyGltytyr Gsp GEltytyr olGl- jsp
GEltytyr FlxCwp JlF wlmpwpo lF nwlFF %+ lyo Gsp EpqpEpynp FlxCwp nwlFF $+
lyo l wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw+ HFtyr l GpyFzE CEzoHnG zq ylGHElw FCwtypF
’ipnGtzy 4-=-%(+ JlF ¨G Gz Gsp olGl- izxp CEzmlmtwtGA nzyGzHEF zq < —’K( lEp
FszJy ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw: GspFp lEp lwFz Gsp nzyGzHEF zq Gsp opyFtGA pFGtxlGp
—’K(.’% } <
r—’K(+ Ftynp r—’K( ˆ < —’K((+ tF l xzyzGzyp qHynGtzy- jsp nzyGzHEF
EzHrswA nlCGHEp Gsp olGl opyFtGA-
Ty CEtyntCwp lyA EpqpEpynp opyFtGA nly mp HFpo qzE r$ ’K( ty ’%?-%?(- Ty
CElnGtnp Gsp lnnHElnA zq Gsp pFGtxlGp r—’K( nly opCpyo rEplGwA zy ClEGtn!
HwlE nsztnpF- Rzzo nsztnpF Jtww opCpyo zy Gsp olGl opyFtGA r’K( lyo Gsp
CEznpoHEp HFpo Gz pFGtxlGp ’%?-%$( zE ’%?-%“(- Tq lnnHElnA tF Gsp rzlw+ r$ ’K(
FszHwo mp nszFpy Fz GslG Gsp EpFHwGtyr qHynGtzyF <’K( zE q ’K( lEp lCCEzK!
txlGpo plFtwA mA Gsp xpGszo mptyr HFpo- SzJpIpE+ lnnHElnA tF yzG lwJlAF
Gsp CEtxlEA rzlw- MzGs <’K( lyo q ’K( lEp xzyzGzytn qHynGtzyF zq Gsp opy!
FtGA ElGtz r’K(.r$ ’K(- jspA nly GsHF mp ItpJpo lF ñzyGElFG˙ FGlGtFGtnF GslG
CEzItop tyqzExlGtzy nzynpEytyr opClEGHEpF zq Gsp olGl opyFtGA r’K( qEzx
Gsp nszFpy EpqpEpynp opyFtGA r$ ’K(- jspEpqzEp+ ty olGl lylwAGtn FpGGtyrF+ l
nsztnp qzE r$ ’K( tF otnGlGpo mA GACpF zq opClEGHEpF GslG lEp oppxpo xzFG
tyGpEpFGtyr ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq Gsp FCpnt¨n CEzmwpx lG slyo- QzE pKlxCwp+ tq
opClEGHEpF qEzx HytqzExtGA lEp zq tyGpEpFG+ r$ ’K( xtrsG mp Gsp l HytqzEx
opyFtGA zIpE Gsp Elyrp zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF- Tq opClEGHEpF qEzx uztyG yzExlwtGA
%?-= LFFzntlGtzy hHwpF ?–fi
lEp zq tyGpEpFG+ l rzzo nsztnp qzE r$ ’K( JzHwo mp l RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy

JtGs Gsp Flxp xply IpnGzE lyo nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK lF Gsp olGl- OpClEGHEpF
qEzx tyopCpyopynp nzHwo mp tyIpFGtrlGpo mA HFtyr
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L FlxCwp qEzx GstF tyopCpyopyG opyFtGA ’%?-%4( tF plFtwA rpypElGpo qEzx Gsp
olGl tGFpwq mA lCCwAtyr l otΓpEpyG Elyozx CpExHGlGtzy Gz Gsp olGl IlwHpF
zq plns zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF-
LF otFnHFFpo lmzIp+ HyFHCpEItFpo wplEytyr tF nzynpEypo JtGs EpIplwtyr
CEzCpEGtpF zq Gsp olGl opyFtGA r’K(- Plns GpnsytDHp qznHFpF zy l ClEGtnH!
wlE CEzCpEGA zE FpG zq CEzCpEGtpF- LwGszHrs GstF lCCEzlns zq GElyFqzExtyr
Gsp CEzmwpx Gz zyp zq FHCpEItFpo wplEytyr ’%?-%$(8’%?-%?( FppxF Gz slIp
mppy ClEG zq Gsp FGlGtFGtnF qzwvwzEp qzE Fzxp Gtxp+ tG ozpF yzG lCCplE Gz
slIp slo xHns txClnG opFCtGp tGF CzGpyGtlw Gz mEtyr Jpww!opIpwzCpo FH!
CpEItFpo wplEytyr xpGszozwzrA Gz mplE zy HyFHCpEItFpo wplEytyr CEzmwpxF-
Zyp EplFzy xlA mp GslG Gsp CEzmwpx xHFG mp pywlErpo JtGs l FtxHwlGpo
olGl FpG rpypElGpo mA XzyGp NlEwz GpnsytDHpF- itynp Gsp FtBp zq GstF olGl
FpG FszHwo mp lG wplFG lF wlErp lF Gsp olGl FlxCwp Y$ ≥ Y + Gsp nzxCH!
GlGtzy lyo xpxzEA EpDHtEpxpyGF zq Gsp pFGtxlGtzy CEznpoHEp lEp lG wplFG
ozHmwpo- LwFz+ FHmFGlyGtlw nzxCHGlGtzy xlA mp EpDHtEpo Gz rpypElGp Gsp
XzyGp NlEwz FlxCwp tGFpwq- LwGszHrs CpEslCF l opGpEEpyG ty Gsp ClFG+ GspFp
tynEplFpo nzxCHGlGtzylw EpDHtEpxpyGF lEp mpnzxtyr xHns wpFF zq l mHEopy
lF tynEplFpo EpFzHEnpF mpnzxp EzHGtypwA lIltwlmwp- bp twwHFGElGp Gsp HFp zq
FHCpEItFtyr wplEytyr xpGszoF qzE HyFHCpEItFpo wplEytyr ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy-
0?-1-4 RpypElwtBpo LFFzntlGtzy hHwpF

jsp xzEp rpypElw CEzmwpx ’%?-=( zq ÿotyr strs!opyFtGA EprtzyF ty Gsp olGl
FClnp nly mp looEpFFpo HFtyr Gsp FHCpEItFpo wplEytyr lCCEzlns opFnEtmpo
lmzIp- LwGszHrs yzG lCCwtnlmwp Gz Gsp sHrp olGl mlFpF qzE Jstns xlEvpG
mlFvpG lylwAFtF tF qplFtmwp+ HFpqHw tyqzExlGtzy nly mp zmGltypo qEzx xzo!
pElGpwA FtBpo olGl FpGF- jsp CEzmwpx ’%?-=( nly mp qzExHwlGpo lF ÿotyr
FHmFpGF zq Gsp tyGprpEF I ⊂ ·%W =W , , , W C• lyo nzEEpFCzyotyr IlwHp FHmFpGF
FH W u ∈ I qzE Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr IlEtlmwpF cH + FHns GslG
 
⋂ ∑Y ⋂
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FH (•H∈T Jtww mp nlwwpo l ˜rpypElwtBpo˙ tGpx FpG- jsp FHmFpGF FH nzEEpFCzyo!
tyr Gz DHlyGtGlGtIp IlEtlmwpF lEp Glvpy Gz mp nzyGtrHzHF tyGpEIlwF JtGsty
?–] %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
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Gsly l Ftyrwp IlwHp- jsp lxmtGtzHF ylGHEp zq GstF qzExHwlGtzy CEpnwHopF l
GszEzHrs FplEns qzE lww rpypElwtBpo tGpx FpGF JtGs FHCCzEG ’%?-%[( rEplGpE
Gsly l FCpnt¨po xtytxHx GsEpFszwo+ lF JlF CzFFtmwp ty Gsp xzEp EpFGEtn!
GtIp FpGGtyr zq xlEvpG mlFvpG lylwAFtF- SpHEtFGtn FplEns xpGszoF xHFG mp
pxCwzApo+ lyo Gsp xzFG zyp nly szCp qzE tF Gz ÿo l HFpqHw nzwwpnGtzy zq
FHns rpypElwtBpo tGpx FpGF-
MzGs xlEvpG mlFvpG lylwAFtF ’%?-4( lyo Gsp rpypElwtBpo qzExHwlGtzy ’%?-%[(
txCwtntGwA EpqpEpynp Gsp HytqzEx CEzmlmtwtGA otFGEtmHGtzy- Zyp FppvF tGpx
FpGF GslG lEp xzEp qEpDHpyG Gsly JzHwo mp pKCpnGpo tq lww uztyG olGl IlwHpF
’K0 W K= W , , , W KY ( JpEp HytqzExwA otFGEtmHGpo- jstF qlIzEF Gsp otFnzIpEA zq
tGpx FpGF JszFp xlErtylw nzyFGtGHpyGF ’cH ∈ FH ( lEp tyotItoHlwwA qEpDHpyG+
GslG tF+ Gsp DHlyGtGA
Y
% ∑
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Y tˆ0
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xlErtylw FHCCzEG+ Fz GslG GsptE uztyG FHCCzEG tF pFCpntlwwA Fxlww- hpqpEpynp
Gz Gsp HytqzEx otFGEtmHGtzy nly nlHFp strswA qEpDHpyG tGpx FpGF JtGs wzJ
lFFzntlGtzyF lxzyr GsptE nzyFGtGHpyGF Gz ozxtylGp Gsp nzwwpnGtzy zq strspFG
FHCCzEG tGpx FpGF-
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mpnlHFp Gsp opyFtGA ElGtz r’K(.r$ ’K( tF HytqzEx tq GspEp lEp yz lFFzntlGtzyF
lxzyr Gsp IlEtlmwpF ’nzxCwpGp tyopCpyopynp(+ EprlEowpFF zq Gsp qEpDHpynA
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[ ]
szHFpszwopE FGlGHF ˆ zJy
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⇓
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[ ]
szHFpszwopE FGlGHF ˆ zJy
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JspGspE zE yzG Gsp olGl nzyFtFGF zq l FpG otFGtynG FHmrEzHCF+ plns rEzHC
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o’Kt W Kt′ ( ˆ ’KtH } Kt′ H (= ˆ KKKt } Kt′ KK=
Hˆ0
tF nszFpy lF Gsp otFFtxtwlEtGA xplFHEp- YzGp GslG JptrsGpo PHnwtoply otF!

Glynp nly mp HFpo mA Epopÿtyr Gsp KtH IlwHpF ’PKpEntFp %?-%(-
jsp JtGsty!CztyG FnlGGpE ’%?-=]( nly mp JEtGGpy lF
V
%∑ ∑ ∑
b ’N( ˆ KKKt } Kt′ KK=
=
vˆ0 NWt(ˆv NWt′ (ˆv
V
∑ ∑
ˆ Yv 3v KK= W
KKKt } K ’%?-“%(
vˆ0 NWt(ˆv
JspEp K3v ˆ ’3
K0v W , , , W K
3 ( tF Gsp xply IpnGzE lFFzntlGpo JtGs Gsp vGs nwHF!
(Y Cv
GpE+ lyo Yv ˆ tˆ0 T’N’t( ˆ v(- jsHF+ Gsp nEtGpEtzy tF xtytxtBpo mA
lFFtrytyr Gsp Y zmFpEIlGtzyF Gz Gsp V nwHFGpEF ty FHns l JlA GslG JtGsty
plns nwHFGpE Gsp lIpElrp otFFtxtwlEtGA zq Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF qEzx Gsp nwHFGpE
xply+ lF opÿpo mA Gsp CztyGF ty GslG nwHFGpE+ tF xtytxtBpo-
Ly tGpElGtIp opFnpyG lwrzEtGsx qzE FzwItyr
4%/ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
LwrzEtGsx 03-0 V,xplyF NwHFGpEtyr-

%- QzE l rtIpy nwHFGpE lFFtryxpyG N+ Gsp GzGlw nwHFGpE IlEtlynp ’%?-““( tF
xtytxtBpo JtGs EpFCpnG Gz ·x0 W , , , W xV • Atpwotyr Gsp xplyF zq Gsp
nHEEpyGwA lFFtrypo nwHFGpEF ’%?-“=(-
=- RtIpy l nHEEpyG FpG zq xplyF ·x0 W , , , W xV •+ ’%?-““( tF xtytxtBpo mA
lFFtrytyr plns zmFpEIlGtzy Gz Gsp nwzFpFG ’nHEEpyG( nwHFGpE xply- jslG
tF+
N’t( ˆ lErxty KKKt } xv KK= , ’%?-“?(
0≤v≤V
“- iGpCF % lyo = lEp tGpElGpo HyGtw Gsp lFFtryxpyGF oz yzG nslyrp-
V
∑ ∑
{
N ˆ xty Yv 3v KK=
KKKt } K
N
vˆ0 NWt(ˆv
nly mp zmGltypo mA yzGtyr GslG qzE lyA FpG zq zmFpEIlGtzyF i

∑
K
3i ˆ lErxty KKKt } xKK= , ’%?-“=(
x
t∈i
Spynp Jp nly zmGlty N { mA FzwItyr Gsp pywlErpo zCGtxtBlGtzy CEzmwpx

V
∑ ∑
xty Yv KKKt } xv KK= , ’%?-““(
NW·xv |a
0 vˆ0 NWt(ˆv
jstF nly mp xtytxtBpo mA ly lwGpEylGtyr zCGtxtBlGtzy CEznpoHEp rtIpy ty

LwrzEtGsx %?-%-
Plns zq FGpCF % lyo = EpoHnpF Gsp IlwHp zq Gsp nEtGpEtzy ’%?-““(+ Fz GslG
nzyIpErpynp tF lFFHEpo- SzJpIpE+ Gsp EpFHwG xlA EpCEpFpyG l FHmzCGtxlw
wznlw xtytxHx- jsp lwrzEtGsx zq SlEGtrly lyo bzyr ’%–fi–( rzpF qHEGspE+
lyo pyFHEpF GslG GspEp tF yz Ftyrwp FJtGns zq ly zmFpEIlGtzy qEzx zyp rEzHC
Gz lyzGspE rEzHC GslG Jtww opnEplFp Gsp zmupnGtIp- Ty lootGtzy+ zyp FszHwo
FGlEG Gsp lwrzEtGsx JtGs xlyA otΓpEpyG Elyozx nsztnpF qzE Gsp FGlEGtyr
xplyF+ lyo nszzFp Gsp FzwHGtzy slItyr FxlwwpFG IlwHp zq Gsp zmupnGtIp qHyn!
Gtzy-
QtrHEp %?-[ FszJF Fzxp zq Gsp V!xplyF tGpElGtzyF qzE Gsp FtxHwlGpo olGl
zq QtrHEp %?-?- jsp npyGEztoF lEp opCtnGpo mA ˜Z˙F- jsp FGEltrsG wtypF FszJ
Gsp ClEGtGtzytyr zq CztyGF+ plns FpnGzE mptyr Gsp FpG zq CztyGF nwzFpFG Gz
plns npyGEzto- jstF ClEGtGtzytyr tF nlwwpo Gsp azEzyzt GpFFpwwlGtzy- LqGpE =$
tGpElGtzyF Gsp CEznpoHEp slF nzyIpErpo-
0?-“-fi RlHFFtly ctKGHEpF lF izqG k,xplyF NwHFGpEtyr

jsp V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr CEznpoHEp tF nwzFpwA EpwlGpo Gz Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx
qzE pFGtxlGtyr l npEGlty RlHFFtly xtKGHEp xzopw- ’ipnGtzyF [-] lyo ]-4-%(-
%?-“ NwHFGpE LylwAFtF 4%%
Initial Centroids Initial Partition
• •• • ••
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6
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•• • •• • • •• •••• • •• • • ••
•
•• • •• • • •• •••• • •• • • ••
0
• • • •
•• ••••••• ••• ••• •••• •• ••••••• ••• ••• ••••
•• • •• • •• • •• •
• • • •
-2
• •
-4 -2 0 2 4 6
Iteration Number 2 Iteration Number 20
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••
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•
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•
•
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•
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• •• • • •••••••• • ••• ••• • • •• • • •••••••• • ••• ••• •
••
•
•• • •• • •• •••• • •• • • ••
• •
•• ••••••• ••• ••• ••••
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•
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• •
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•
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• •
QTRIFD 03W5W iHnnpFFtIp tGpElGtzyF zq Gsp V,xplyF nwHFGpEtyr lwrzEtGsx qzE

Gsp FtxHwlGpo olGl zq QtrHEp %3-3-
4%= %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
σ ˆ %,/ σ ˆ %,/
1.0
Responsibilities
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
• •
0.0
σ ˆ /,= σ ˆ /,=
1.0
Responsibilities
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
• •
0.0
QTRIFD 03W6W ’ pqG ClypwF9( GJz RlHFFtly opyFtGtpF r+ ’K( lyo r0 ’K( ’mwHp lyo
zElyrp( zy Gsp Eplw wtyp+ lyo l Ftyrwp olGl CztyG ’rEppy ozG( lG K ˆ /,4- jsp nzwzEpo
FDHlEpF lEp CwzGGpo lG K ˆ }%,/ lyo K ˆ %,/+ Gsp xplyF zq plns opyFtGA- ’htrsG
ClypwF9( Gsp EpwlGtIp opyFtGtpF r+ ’K(.’r+ ’K( ) r0 ’K(( lyo r0 ’K(.’r+ ’K( ) r0 ’K((+
nlwwpo Gsp 2EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF5 zq plns nwHFGpE+ qzE GstF olGl CztyG- Ty Gsp GzC ClypwF+
Gsp RlHFFtly FGlyolEo opItlGtzy σ ˆ %,/‘ ty Gsp mzGGzx ClypwF σ ˆ /,=- jsp
Pc lwrzEtGsx HFpF GspFp EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF Gz xlvp l 2FzqG5 lFFtryxpyG zq plns
olGl CztyG Gz plns zq Gsp GJz nwHFGpEF- bspy σ tF qltEwA wlErp+ Gsp EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF
nly mp yplE /,4 ’GspA lEp /,“[ lyo /,[3 ty Gsp GzC EtrsG Clypw(- LF σ → /+ Gsp
EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF → %+ qzE Gsp nwHFGpE npyGpE nwzFpFG Gz Gsp GlErpG CztyG+ lyo / qzE
lww zGspE nwHFGpEF- jstF 2slEo5 lFFtryxpyG tF Fppy ty Gsp mzGGzx EtrsG Clypw-
jsp P!FGpC zq Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx lFFtryF ˜EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF˙ qzE plns olGl

CztyG mlFpo ty tGF EpwlGtIp opyFtGA HyopE plns xtKGHEp nzxCzypyG+ Jstwp
Gsp X!FGpC EpnzxCHGpF Gsp nzxCzypyG opyFtGA ClElxpGpEF mlFpo zy Gsp
nHEEpyG EpFCzyFtmtwtGtpF- iHCCzFp Jp FCpntqA V xtKGHEp nzxCzypyGF+ plns
JtGs l RlHFFtly opyFtGA slItyr FnlwlE nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK σ = T- jspy Gsp
EpwlGtIp opyFtGA HyopE plns xtKGHEp nzxCzypyG tF l xzyzGzyp qHynGtzy zq
Gsp PHnwtoply otFGlynp mpGJppy Gsp olGl CztyG lyo Gsp xtKGHEp npyGpE-
Spynp ty GstF FpGHC PX tF l ˜FzqG˙ IpEFtzy zq V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr+ xlvtyr
CEzmlmtwtFGtn ’ElGspE Gsly opGpExtytFGtn( lFFtryxpyGF zq CztyGF Gz nwHFGpE
npyGpEF- LF Gsp IlEtlynp σ = → $+ GspFp CEzmlmtwtGtpF mpnzxp $ lyo %+ lyo
Gsp GJz xpGszoF nztyntop- OpGltwF lEp rtIpy ty PKpEntFp %?-=- QtrHEp %?-fi
twwHFGElGpF GstF EpFHwG qzE GJz nwHFGpEF zy Gsp Eplw wtyp-
0?-“-7 PKlxCwp9 SHxly jHxzE ctnEzlEElA OlGl

bp lCCwA V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr Gz Gsp sHxly GHxzE xtnEzlEElA olGl op!
FnEtmpo ty NslCGpE %- jstF tF ly pKlxCwp zq strs!otxpyFtzylw nwHFGpEtyr-
%?-“ NwHFGpE LylwAFtF 4%“
•
240000
•
Sum of Squares
•
200000
•
•
•
• •
160000
• •
2 4 6 8 10
Number of Clusters K
QTRIFD 03W7W jzGlw JtGsty,nwHFGpE FHx zq FDHlEpF qzE V,xplyF nwHFGpEtyr lC,
Cwtpo Gz Gsp sHxly GHxzE xtnEzlEElA olGl-
uLM D 03W1W SHxly GHxzE olGl9 yHxmpE zq nlynpE nlFpF zq plns GACp+ ty plns
zq Gsp GsEpp nwHFGpEF qEzx V,xplyF nwHFGpEtyr-
NwHFGpE MEplFG Ndi Nzwzy V4[= pHvpxtl XNg6
% “ 4 $ $ $ $
= = $ $ = [ =
“ = $ fi $ $ $
NwHFGpE Xpwlyzxl diN N eIlEtly fEzFGlGp hpylw kyvyzUy
% % fi [ = – %
= fi = $ $ $ $
“ $ $ $ $ $ $
jsp olGl lEp l []“$ × [? xlGEtK zq Eplw yHxmpEF+ plns EpCEpFpyGtyr ly

pKCEpFFtzy xplFHEpxpyG qzE l rpyp ’EzJ( lyo FlxCwp ’nzwHxy(- SpEp Jp
nwHFGpE Gsp FlxCwpF+ plns zq Jstns tF l IpnGzE zq wpyrGs []“$+ nzEEpFCzyo!
tyr Gz pKCEpFFtzy IlwHpF qzE Gsp []“$ rpypF- Plns FlxCwp slF l wlmpw FHns
lF mEplFG ’qzE mEplFG nlynpE(+ xpwlyzxl+ lyo Fz zy: Jp ozy&G HFp GspFp wl!
mpwF ty Gsp nwHFGpEtyr+ mHG Jtww pKlxtyp CzFGszn Jstns wlmpwF qlww tyGz Jstns
nwHFGpEF-
bp lCCwtpo V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr JtGs V EHyytyr qEzx % Gz %$+ lyo nzx!
CHGpo Gsp GzGlw JtGsty!FHx zq FDHlEpF qzE plns nwHFGpEtyr+ FszJy ty Qtr!
HEp %?-]- jACtnlwwA zyp wzzvF qzE l vtyv ty Gsp FHx zq FDHlEpF nHEIp ’zE tGF
wzrlEtGsx( Gz wznlGp Gsp zCGtxlw yHxmpE zq nwHFGpEF ’Fpp ipnGtzy %?-“-%%(-
SpEp GspEp tF yz nwplE tyotnlGtzy9 qzE twwHFGElGtzy Jp nszFp V ˆ “ rtItyr Gsp
GsEpp nwHFGpEF FszJy ty jlmwp %?-=-
4%? %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
QTRIFD 03W8W itE hzylwo L- QtFspE ’%]–/ } %–[=( JlF zyp zq Gsp qzHyopEF
zq xzopEy olA FGlGtFGtnF+ Gz Jszx Jp zJp xlKtxHx,wtvpwtszzo+ FHffntpynA+ lyo
xlyA zGspE qHyolxpyGlw nzynpCGF- jsp txlrp zy Gsp wpqG tF l %/=?×%/=? rElAFnlwp
txlrp lG ] mtGF CpE CtKpw- jsp npyGpE txlrp tF Gsp EpFHwG zq = × = mwznv ag+ HFtyr
=// nzop IpnGzEF+ JtGs l nzxCEpFFtzy ElGp zq %,– mtGF.CtKpw- jsp EtrsG txlrp HFpF
zywA qzHE nzop IpnGzEF+ JtGs l nzxCEpFFtzy ElGp zq /,4/ mtGF.CtKpw
bp Fpp GslG Gsp CEznpoHEp tF FHnnpFFqHw lG rEzHCtyr GzrpGspE FlxCwpF zq

Gsp Flxp nlynpE- Ty qlnG+ Gsp GJz mEplFG nlynpEF ty Gsp Fpnzyo nwHFGpE JpEp
wlGpE qzHyo Gz mp xtFotlryzFpo lyo JpEp xpwlyzxlF GslG slo xpGlFGlFtBpo-
SzJpIpE+ V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr slF FszEGnzxtyrF ty GstF lCCwtnlGtzy- QzE zyp+
tG ozpF yzG rtIp l wtyplE zEopEtyr zq zmupnGF JtGsty l nwHFGpE9 Jp slIp FtxCwA
wtFGpo Gspx ty lwCslmpGtn zEopE lmzIp- ipnzyowA+ lF Gsp yHxmpE zq nwHFGpEF
V tF nslyrpo+ Gsp nwHFGpE xpxmpEFstCF nly nslyrp ty lEmtGElEA JlAF- jslG
tF+ JtGs FlA qzHE nwHFGpEF+ Gsp nwHFGpEF yppo yzG mp ypFGpo JtGsty Gsp GsEpp
nwHFGpEF lmzIp- QzE GspFp EplFzyF+ stpElEnstnlw nwHFGpEtyr ’opFnEtmpo wlGpE(+
tF CEzmlmwA CEpqpElmwp qzE GstF lCCwtnlGtzy-
0?-“-– apnGzE gHlyGtBlGtzy

jsp V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr lwrzEtGsx EpCEpFpyGF l vpA Gzzw ty Gsp lCClEpyGwA
HyEpwlGpo lEpl zq txlrp lyo Ftrylw nzxCEpFFtzy+ ClEGtnHwlEwA ty IpnGzE DHly,
GtBlGtzy zE ag ’RpEFsz lyo RElA+ %––=(- jsp wpqG txlrp ty QtrHEp %?-–= tF l
otrtGtBpo CszGzrElCs zq l qlxzHF FGlGtFGtntly+ itE hzylwo QtFspE- TG nzyFtFGF
zq %$=? × %$=? CtKpwF+ JspEp plns CtKpw tF l rElAFnlwp IlwHp Elyrtyr qEzx $
Gz =44+ lyo spynp EpDHtEpF ] mtGF zq FGzElrp CpE CtKpw- jsp pyGtEp txlrp zn!
nHCtpF % xprlmAGp zq FGzElrp- jsp npyGpE txlrp tF l ag!nzxCEpFFpo IpEFtzy
zq Gsp wpqG Clypw+ lyo EpDHtEpF $,=“– zq Gsp FGzElrp ’lG Fzxp wzFF ty DHlwtGA(-
jsp EtrsG txlrp tF nzxCEpFFpo pIpy xzEp+ lyo EpDHtEpF zywA $,$[=4 zq Gsp
FGzElrp ’lG l nzyFtopElmwp wzFF ty DHlwtGA(-
jsp IpEFtzy zq ag txCwpxpyGpo spEp ËFG mEplvF Gsp txlrp tyGz Fxlww
mwznvF+ ty GstF nlFp =×= mwznvF zq CtKpwF- Plns zq Gsp 4%=×4%= mwznvF zq qzHE
= jstF pKlxCwp JlF CEpClEpo mA clAl RHCGl-

%?-“ NwHFGpE LylwAFtF 4%4
yHxmpEF tF EprlEopo lF l IpnGzE ty Th3 - L V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr lwrzEtGsx

’lwFz vyzJy lF wzAo&F lwrzEtGsx ty GstF nzyGpKG( tF EHy ty GstF FClnp-
jsp npyGpE txlrp HFpF V ˆ =$$+ Jstwp Gsp EtrsG txlrp V ˆ ?- Plns zq
Gsp 4%= × 4%= CtKpw mwznvF ’zE CztyGF( tF lCCEzKtxlGpo mA tGF nwzFpFG nwHFGpE
npyGEzto+ vyzJy lF l nzopJzEo- jsp nwHFGpEtyr CEznpFF tF nlwwpo Gsp pynzotyr
FGpC+ lyo Gsp nzwwpnGtzy zq npyGEztoF tF nlwwpo Gsp nzopmzzv-
jz EpCEpFpyG Gsp lCCEzKtxlGpo txlrp+ Jp yppo Gz FHCCwA qzE plns mwznv
Gsp topyGtGA zq Gsp nzopmzzv pyGEA GslG lCCEzKtxlGpF tG- jstF Jtww EpDHtEp
wzr= ’V( mtGF CpE mwznv- bp lwFz yppo Gz FHCCwA Gsp nzopmzzv tGFpwq+ Jstns
tF V × ? Eplw yHxmpEF ’GACtnlwwA yprwtrtmwp(- ZIpElww+ Gsp FGzElrp qzE Gsp
nzxCEpFFpo txlrp lxzHyGF Gz wzr= ’V(.’? ± ]( zq Gsp zEtrtylw ’$,=“– qzE
V ˆ =$$+ $,$[“ qzE V ˆ ?(- jstF tF GACtnlwwA pKCEpFFpo lF l ElGp ty mtGF
CpE CtKpw9 wzr= ’V(.?+ Jstns lEp %,–% lyo $,4$+ EpFCpnGtIpwA- jsp CEznpFF
zq nzyFGEHnGtyr Gsp lCCEzKtxlGp txlrp qEzx Gsp npyGEztoF tF nlwwpo Gsp
opnzotyr FGpC-
bsA oz Jp pKCpnG ag Gz JzEv lG lww¯ jsp EplFzy tF GslG qzE GACtnlw
pIpEAolA txlrpF wtvp CszGzrElCsF+ xlyA zq Gsp mwznvF wzzv Gsp Flxp- Ty
GstF nlFp GspEp lEp xlyA lwxzFG CHEp JstGp mwznvF+ lyo FtxtwlEwA CHEp rElA
mwznvF zq IlEtzHF FslopF- jspFp EpDHtEp zywA zyp mwznv plns Gz EpCEpFpyG
Gspx+ lyo Gspy xHwGtCwp CztyGpEF Gz GslG mwznv-
bslG Jp slIp opFnEtmpo tF vyzJy lF wzFFA nzxCEpFFtzy+ Ftynp zHE tx!
lrpF lEp oprElopo IpEFtzyF zq Gsp zEtrtylw- jsp oprElolGtzy zE otFGzEGtzy tF
HFHlwwA xplFHEpo ty GpExF zq xply FDHlEpo pEEzE- Ty GstF nlFp O ˆ $,]–
qzE V ˆ =$$ lyo O ˆ %[,–4 qzE V ˆ ?- XzEp rpypElwwA l ElGp#otFGzEGtzy
nHEIp JzHwo mp HFpo Gz lFFpFF Gsp GElopzΓ- Zyp nly lwFz CpEqzEx wzFFwpFF
nzxCEpFFtzy HFtyr mwznv nwHFGpEtyr+ lyo FGtww nlCtGlwtBp zy Gsp EpCplGpo ClG!
GpEyF- Tq AzH Gzzv Gsp zEtrtylw txlrp lyo wzFFwpFFwA nzxCEpFFpo tG+ Gsp mpFG
AzH JzHwo oz tF ?-?] mtGF CpE CtKpw-
bp nwltxpo lmzIp GslG wzr= ’V( mtGF JpEp yppopo Gz topyGtqA plns zq Gsp V
nzopJzEoF ty Gsp nzopmzzv- jstF HFpF l ¨Kpo!wpyrGs nzop+ lyo tF typffntpyG
tq Fzxp nzopJzEoF znnHE xlyA xzEp GtxpF Gsly zGspEF ty Gsp txlrp- kFtyr
islyyzy nzotyr GspzEA+ Jp vyzJ GslG ty rpypElw (V l IlEtlmwp wpyrGs nzop
Jtww oz mpGGpE+ lyo Gsp ElGp Gspy mpnzxpF } ℓˆ0 Cℓ wzr= ’Cℓ (.?- jsp GpEx
ty Gsp yHxpElGzE tF Gsp pyGEzCA zq Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy Cℓ zq Gsp nzopJzEoF
ty Gsp txlrp- kFtyr IlEtlmwp wpyrGs nzotyr zHE ElGpF nzxp ozJy Gz %,?=
lyo $,“–+ EpFCpnGtIpwA- QtylwwA+ GspEp lEp xlyA rpypElwtBlGtzyF zq ag GslG
slIp mppy opIpwzCpo9 qzE pKlxCwp+ GEpp!FGEHnGHEpo ag ÿoF Gsp npyGEztoF
JtGs l GzC!ozJy+ =!xplyF FGAwp lwrzEtGsx+ lF lwwHopo Gz ty ipnGtzy %?-“-%=-
jstF lwwzJF FHnnpFFtIp EpÿpxpyG zq Gsp nzxCEpFFtzy- QHEGspE opGltwF xlA
mp qzHyo ty RpEFsz lyo RElA ’%––=(-
0?-“-0. k,xpoztoF
LF otFnHFFpo lmzIp+ Gsp V!xplyF lwrzEtGsx tF lCCEzCEtlGp Jspy Gsp otF!
FtxtwlEtGA xplFHEp tF Glvpy Gz mp FDHlEpo PHnwtoply otFGlynp O’Kt W Kt′ (
4%[ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
LwrzEtGsx 03-ˆ V,xpoztoF NwHFGpEtyr-

%- QzE l rtIpy nwHFGpE lFFtryxpyG N ÿo Gsp zmFpEIlGtzy ty Gsp nwHFGpE
xtytxtBtyr GzGlw otFGlynp Gz zGspE CztyGF ty GslG nwHFGpE9
∑
t{v ˆ lErxty O’Kt W Kt′ (, ’%?-“4(
·t9NWt(ˆv|
NWt′ (ˆv
jspy xv ˆ Kt∗v W v ˆ %W =W , , , W V lEp Gsp nHEEpyG pFGtxlGpF zq Gsp

nwHFGpE npyGpEF-
=- RtIpy l nHEEpyG FpG zq nwHFGpE npyGpEF ·x0 W , , , W xV •+ xtytxtBp Gsp Gz!
Glw pEEzE mA lFFtrytyr plns zmFpEIlGtzy Gz Gsp nwzFpFG ’nHEEpyG( nwHFGpE
npyGpE9
N’t( ˆ lErxty O’Kt W xv (, ’%?-“[(
0≤v≤V
“- TGpElGp FGpCF % lyo = HyGtw Gsp lFFtryxpyGF oz yzG nslyrp-
’%?-%%=(- jstF EpDHtEpF lww zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF Gz mp zq Gsp DHlyGtGlGtIp GACp- Ty

lootGtzy+ HFtyr FDHlEpo PHnwtoply otFGlynp CwlnpF Gsp strspFG ty7Hpynp zy
Gsp wlErpFG otFGlynpF- jstF nlHFpF Gsp CEznpoHEp Gz wlnv EzmHFGypFF lrltyFG
zHGwtpEF GslG CEzoHnp IpEA wlErp otFGlynpF- jspFp EpFGEtnGtzyF nly mp Ep!
xzIpo lG Gsp pKCpyFp zq nzxCHGlGtzy-
jsp zywA ClEG zq Gsp V!xplyF lwrzEtGsx GslG lFFHxpF FDHlEpo PH!
nwtoply otFGlynp tF Gsp xtytxtBlGtzy FGpC ’%?-“=(: Gsp nwHFGpE EpCEpFpyGlGtIpF
·x0 W , , , W xV • ty ’%?-““( lEp Glvpy Gz mp Gsp xplyF zq Gsp nHEEpyGwA lFFtrypo
nwHFGpEF- jsp lwrzEtGsx nly mp rpypElwtBpo qzE HFp JtGs lEmtGElEtwA opÿpo
otFFtxtwlEtGtpF O’Kt W Kt′ ( mA EpCwlntyr GstF FGpC mA ly pKCwtntG zCGtxtBlGtzy
JtGs EpFCpnG Gz ·x0 W , , , W xV • ty ’%?-““(- Ty Gsp xzFG nzxxzy qzEx+ npy!
GpEF qzE plns nwHFGpE lEp EpFGEtnGpo Gz mp zyp zq Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF lFFtrypo
Gz Gsp nwHFGpE+ lF FHxxlEtBpo ty LwrzEtGsx %?-=- jstF lwrzEtGsx lFFHxpF
lGGEtmHGp olGl+ mHG Gsp lCCEzlns nly lwFz mp lCCwtpo Gz olGl opFnEtmpo
zywA mA CEzKtxtGA xlGEtnpF ’ipnGtzy %?-“-%(- jspEp tF yz yppo Gz pKCwtntGwA
nzxCHGp nwHFGpE npyGpEF: ElGspE Jp uHFG vppC GElnv zq Gsp tyotnpF t{v -
izwItyr ’%?-“=( qzE plns CEzItFtzylw nwHFGpE v EpDHtEpF ly lxzHyG zq nzx!
CHGlGtzy CEzCzEGtzylw Gz Gsp yHxmpE zq zmFpEIlGtzyF lFFtrypo Gz tG+ JspEplF
qzE FzwItyr ’%?-“4( Gsp nzxCHGlGtzy tynEplFpF Gz Z’Yv= (- RtIpy l FpG zq nwHF!
GpE ñpyGpEF+˙ ·t0 W , , , W tV •+ zmGltytyr Gsp ypJ lFFtryxpyGF
N’t( ˆ lErxty ott∗v ’%?-“fi(
0≤v≤V
EpDHtEpF nzxCHGlGtzy CEzCzEGtzylw Gz V ± Y lF mpqzEp- jsHF+ V!xpoztoF tF

qlE xzEp nzxCHGlGtzylwwA tyGpyFtIp Gsly V!xplyF-
LwGpEylGtyr mpGJppy ’%?-“4( lyo ’%?-“fi( EpCEpFpyGF l ClEGtnHwlE spHEtFGtn
FplEns FGElGprA qzE GEAtyr Gz FzwIp
%?-“ NwHFGpE LylwAFtF 4%fi
uLM D 03W2W OlGl qEzx l CzwtGtnlw Fntpynp FHEIpA9 IlwHpF lEp lIpElrp CltEJtFp
otFFtxtwlEtGtpF zq nzHyGEtpF qEzx l DHpFGtzyyltEp rtIpy Gz CzwtGtnlw Fntpynp FGHopyGF-
MP MhL NST NkM PRd QhL TYO Tih kiL kii dkR
MhL 4-4]
NST fi-// [-4/
NkM fi-/] fi-// “-]“
PRd ?-]“ 4-/] ]-%fi 4-]“
QhL =-%fi 4-fi4 [-[fi [-–= ?-–=
TYO [-?= 4-// 4-4] [-// ?-[fi [-?=
Tih “-?= 4-4/ [-?= [-?= 4-// “-–= [-%fi
kiL =-4/ ?-–= [-=4 fi-““ ?-4/ =-=4 [-““ =-fi4
kii [-/] [-[fi ?-=4 =-[fi [-// [-%fi [-%fi [-–= [-%fi
dkR 4-=4 [-]“ ?-4/ “-fi4 4-fi4 4-?= [-/] 4-]“ [-[fi “-[fi
eLT ?-fi4 “-// [-/] [-[fi 4-// 4-4] ?-]“ [-%fi 4-[fi [-4/ [-–=
V
∑ ∑
xty ottv , ’%?-“](
NW ·tv |a
0 vˆ0 NWt(ˆv
VlHqxly lyo hzHFFppHJ ’%––$( CEzCzFp ly lwGpEylGtIp FGElGprA qzE otEpnGwA

FzwItyr ’%?-“]( GslG CEzItFtzylwwA pKnslyrpF plns npyGpE tv JtGs ly zmFpE!
IlGtzy GslG tF yzG nHEEpyGwA l npyGpE+ FpwpnGtyr Gsp pKnslyrp GslG CEzoHnpF
Gsp rEplGpFG EpoHnGtzy ty Gsp IlwHp zq Gsp nEtGpEtzy ’%?-“](- jstF tF EpCplGpo
HyGtw yz loIlyGlrpzHF pKnslyrpF nly mp qzHyo- XlFFlEG pG lw- ’%–]“( opEtIp
l mElyns!lyo!mzHyo nzxmtylGzEtlw xpGszo GslG ÿoF Gsp rwzmlw xtytxHx
zq ’%?-“]( GslG tF CElnGtnlw zywA qzE IpEA Fxlww olGl FpGF-
PKlxCwp9 NzHyGEA OtFFtxtwlEtGtpF

jstF pKlxCwp+ Glvpy qEzx VlHqxly lyo hzHFFppHJ ’%––$(+ nzxpF qEzx l
FGHoA ty Jstns CzwtGtnlw Fntpynp FGHopyGF JpEp lFvpo Gz CEzItop CltEJtFp otF!
FtxtwlEtGA xplFHEpF qzE %= nzHyGEtpF9 MpwrtHx+ MElBtw+ Nstwp+ NHml+ PrACG+
QElynp+ Tyotl+ TFElpw+ kytGpo iGlGpF+ kytzy zq izItpG izntlwtFG hpCHmwtnF+
dHrzFwlItl lyo eltEp- jsp lIpElrp otFFtxtwlEtGA FnzEpF lEp rtIpy ty jl!
mwp %?-“- bp lCCwtpo “!xpozto nwHFGpEtyr Gz GspFp otFFtxtwlEtGtpF- YzGp GslG
V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr nzHwo yzG mp lCCwtpo mpnlHFp Jp slIp zywA otFGlynpF
ElGspE Gsly ElJ zmFpEIlGtzyF- jsp wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp %?-%$ FszJF Gsp
otFFtxtwlEtGtpF EpzEopEpo lyo mwznvpo lnnzEotyr Gz Gsp “!xpozto nwHFGpEtyr-
jsp EtrsG Clypw tF l GJz!otxpyFtzylw xHwGtotxpyFtzylw Fnlwtyr CwzG+ JtGs
Gsp “!xpozto nwHFGpEF lFFtryxpyGF tyotnlGpo mA nzwzEF ’xHwGtotxpyFtzylw
Fnlwtyr tF otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy %?-]-( MzGs CwzGF FszJ GsEpp Jpww!FpClElGpo
nwHFGpEF+ mHG Gsp XOi otFCwlA tyotnlGpF GslG ˜PrACG˙ qlwwF lmzHG slwqJlA
mpGJppy GJz nwHFGpEF-
4%] %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
3
ZAI IND
YUG
CUB
EGY
USS
BRA
FRA
BEL
CHI
IND
BRA
ISR
ZAI
Second MDS Coordinate
2
USA
ISR
FRA
1
EGY EGY
BEL
CHI
0
ZAI
CUB
IND
BRA USS
-1
YUG
USA
USS
BELISR YUG
-2
CUB FRA
-2 0 2 4
Reordered Dissimilarity Matrix First MDS Coordinate
QTRIFD 03W0.W iHEIpA zq nzHyGEA otFFtxtwlEtGtpF- ’ pqG Clypw9( otFFtxtwlEtGtpF

EpzEopEpo lyo mwznvpo lnnzEotyr Gz “,xpozto nwHFGpEtyr- SplG xlC tF nzopo qEzx
xzFG FtxtwlE ’olEv Epo( Gz wplFG FtxtwlE ’mEtrsG Epo(- ’htrsG Clypw9( GJz,otxpy,
Ftzylw xHwGtotxpyFtzylw Fnlwtyr CwzG+ JtGs “,xpozto nwHFGpEF tyotnlGpo mA ot;pEpyG
nzwzEF-
0?-“-00 fElnGtnlw TFFHpF

Ty zEopE Gz lCCwA V!xplyF zE V!xpoztoF zyp xHFG FpwpnG Gsp yHxmpE zq
nwHFGpEF V { lyo ly tytGtlwtBlGtzy- jsp wlGGpE nly mp opÿpo mA FCpntqAtyr
ly tytGtlw FpG zq npyGpEF ·x0 W , , , W xV • zE ·t0 W , , , W tV • zE ly tytGtlw pynzopE
N’t(- kFHlwwA FCpntqAtyr Gsp npyGpEF tF xzEp nzyIpytpyG- iHrrpFGtzyF Elyrp
qEzx FtxCwp Elyozx FpwpnGtzy Gz l opwtmpElGp FGElGprA mlFpo zy qzEJlEo
FGpCJtFp lFFtryxpyG- LG plns FGpC l ypJ npyGpE tv tF nszFpy Gz xtytxtBp
Gsp nEtGpEtzy ’%?-““( zE ’%?-“](+ rtIpy Gsp npyGpEF t0 W , , , W tv}0 nszFpy lG Gsp
CEpItzHF FGpCF- jstF nzyGtyHpF qzE V FGpCF+ GspEpmA CEzoHntyr V tytGtlw
npyGpEF JtGs Jstns Gz mprty Gsp zCGtxtBlGtzy lwrzEtGsx-
L nsztnp qzE Gsp yHxmpE zq nwHFGpEF V opCpyoF zy Gsp rzlw- QzE olGl
FprxpyGlGtzy V tF HFHlwwA opÿpo lF ClEG zq Gsp CEzmwpx- QzE pKlxCwp+
l nzxClyA xlA pxCwzA V FlwpF CpzCwp+ lyo Gsp rzlw tF Gz ClEGtGtzy l
nHFGzxpE olGlmlFp tyGz V FprxpyGF+ zyp qzE plns FlwpF CpEFzy+ FHns GslG Gsp
nHFGzxpEF lFFtrypo Gz plns zyp lEp lF FtxtwlE lF CzFFtmwp- ZqGpy+ szJpIpE+
nwHFGpE lylwAFtF tF HFpo Gz CEzItop l opFnEtCGtIp FGlGtFGtn qzE lFnpEGltytyr Gsp
pKGpyG Gz Jstns Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF nzxCEtFtyr Gsp olGl mlFp qlww tyGz ylGHElw
otFGtynG rEzHCtyrF- SpEp Gsp yHxmpE zq FHns rEzHCF V { tF HyvyzJy lyo
zyp EpDHtEpF GslG tG+ lF Jpww lF Gsp rEzHCtyrF GspxFpwIpF+ mp pFGtxlGpo qEzx
Gsp olGl-
OlGl!mlFpo xpGszoF qzE pFGtxlGtyr V { GACtnlwwA pKlxtyp Gsp JtGsty!
nwHFGpE otFFtxtwlEtGA bV lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp yHxmpE zq nwHFGpEF V- ipClElGp
FzwHGtzyF lEp zmGltypo qzE V ∈ ·%W =W , , , W VxlK •- jsp nzEEpFCzyotyr IlwHpF
%?-“ NwHFGpE LylwAFtF 4%–
·b0 W b= W , , , W bVxlV • rpypElwwA opnEplFp JtGs tynEplFtyr V- jstF Jtww mp

Gsp nlFp pIpy Jspy Gsp nEtGpEtzy tF pIlwHlGpo zy ly tyopCpyopyG GpFG FpG+
Ftynp l wlErp yHxmpE zq nwHFGpE npyGpEF Jtww Gpyo Gz ¨ww Gsp qplGHEp FClnp
opyFpwA lyo GsHF Jtww mp nwzFp Gz lww olGl CztyGF- jsHF nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy
GpnsytDHpF+ Fz HFpqHw qzE xzopw FpwpnGtzy ty FHCpEItFpo wplEytyr+ nlyyzG mp
HGtwtBpo ty GstF nzyGpKG-
jsp tyGHtGtzy HyopEwAtyr Gsp lCCEzlns tF GslG tq GspEp lEp lnGHlwwA V {
otFGtynG rEzHCtyrF zq Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF ’lF opÿpo mA Gsp otFFtxtwlEtGA xpl!
FHEp(+ Gspy qzE V ı V { Gsp nwHFGpEF EpGHEypo mA Gsp lwrzEtGsx Jtww plns
nzyGlty l FHmFpG zq Gsp GEHp HyopEwAtyr rEzHCF- jslG tF+ Gsp FzwHGtzy Jtww
yzG lFFtry zmFpEIlGtzyF ty Gsp Flxp ylGHElwwA znnHEEtyr rEzHC Gz otΓpEpyG
pFGtxlGpo nwHFGpEF- jz Gsp pKGpyG GslG GstF tF Gsp nlFp+ Gsp FzwHGtzy nEtGpEtzy
IlwHp Jtww Gpyo Gz opnEplFp FHmFGlyGtlwwA JtGs plns FHnnpFFtIp tynEplFp ty Gsp
yHxmpE zq FCpnt¨po nwHFGpEF+ bV)0 ≪ bV + lF Gsp ylGHElw rEzHCF lEp FHn!
npFFtIpwA lFFtrypo Gz FpClElGp nwHFGpEF- QzE V / V { + zyp zq Gsp pFGtxlGpo
nwHFGpEF xHFG ClEGtGtzy lG wplFG zyp zq Gsp ylGHElw rEzHCF tyGz GJz FHm!
rEzHCF- jstF Jtww Gpyo Gz CEzItop l FxlwwpE opnEplFp ty Gsp nEtGpEtzy lF V tF
qHEGspE tynEplFpo- iCwtGGtyr l ylGHElw rEzHC+ JtGsty Jstns Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF
lEp lww DHtGp nwzFp Gz plns zGspE+ EpoHnpF Gsp nEtGpEtzy wpFF Gsly ClEGtGtzytyr
Gsp Hytzy zq GJz Jpww!FpClElGpo rEzHCF tyGz GsptE CEzCpE nzyFGtGHpyGF-
jz Gsp pKGpyG GstF FnpylEtz tF EplwtBpo+ GspEp Jtww mp l FslEC opnEplFp ty
FHnnpFFtIp otΓpEpynpF ty nEtGpEtzy IlwHp+ bV } bV)0 + lG V ˆ V { - jslG
tF+ ·bV } bV)0 K V ı V { • ≫ ·bV } bV)0 K V ≥ V { •- Ly pFGtxlGp
V— { qzE V { tF Gspy zmGltypo mA topyGtqAtyr l ˜vtyv˙ ty Gsp CwzG zq bV lF l
qHynGtzy zq V- LF JtGs zGspE lFCpnGF zq nwHFGpEtyr CEznpoHEpF+ GstF lCCEzlns
tF FzxpJslG spHEtFGtn-
jsp EpnpyGwA CEzCzFpo RlC FGlGtFGtn ’jtmFstElyt pG lw-+ =$$%m( nzxClEpF
Gsp nHEIp wzr bV Gz Gsp nHEIp zmGltypo qEzx olGl HytqzExwA otFGEtmHGpo
zIpE l EpnGlyrwp nzyGltytyr Gsp olGl- TG pFGtxlGpF Gsp zCGtxlw yHxmpE zq
nwHFGpEF Gz mp Gsp Cwlnp JspEp Gsp rlC mpGJppy Gsp GJz nHEIpF tF wlErpFG-
PFFpyGtlwwA GstF tF ly lHGzxlGtn JlA zq wznlGtyr Gsp lqzEpxpyGtzypo ˜vtyv-˙
TG lwFz JzEvF EplFzylmwA Jpww Jspy Gsp olGl qlww tyGz l Ftyrwp nwHFGpE+ lyo
ty GslG nlFp Jtww Gpyo Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp zCGtxlw yHxmpE zq nwHFGpEF Gz mp zyp-
jstF tF Gsp FnpylEtz JspEp xzFG zGspE nzxCpGtyr xpGszoF qltw-
QtrHEp %?-%% FszJF Gsp EpFHwG zq Gsp RlC FGlGtFGtn lCCwtpo Gz FtxHwlGpo
olGl zq QtrHEp %?-?- jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF wzr bV qzE v ˆ %W =W , , , W ] nwHFGpEF
’rEppy nHEIp( lyo Gsp pKCpnGpo IlwHp zq wzr bV zIpE =$ FtxHwlGtzyF qEzx
HytqzEx olGl ’mwHp nHEIp(- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp rlC nHEIp+ Jstns tF Gsp
pKCpnGpo nHEIp xtyHFA Gsp zmFpEIpo nHEIp- iszJy lwFz lEp pEEzE mlEF zq slwq!
JtoGs F′V ˆ FV % ) %.=$+ JspEp FV tF Gsp FGlyolEo opItlGtzy zq wzr bV
zIpE Gsp =$ FtxHwlGtzyF- jsp RlC nHEIp tF xlKtxtBpo lG V ˆ = nwHFGpEF- Tq
R’V( tF Gsp RlC nHEIp lG V nwHFGpEF+ Gsp qzExlw EHwp qzE pFGtxlGtyr V { tF
V { ˆ lErxty·VKR’V( ≥ R’V ) %( } F′V)0 •, ’%?-“–(

V
4=/ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0
1.0
•
0.5
• •• •
wzr xa
Gap
• • •
• •
• •
0.0
• • •
• • • •
• •
-0.5
2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8
Number of Clusters Number of Clusters
QTRIFD 03W00W ’ pqG Clypw(9 zmFpEIpo ’rEppy( lyo pKCpnGpo ’mwHp( IlwHpF zq
wzr ba qzE Gsp FtxHwlGpo olGl zq QtrHEp %3-3- MzGs nHEIpF slIp mppy GElyFwlGpo
Gz pDHlw BpEz lG zyp nwHFGpE- ’htrsG Clypw(9 RlC nHEIp+ pDHlw Gz Gsp ot;pEpynp
mpGJppy Gsp zmFpEIpo lyo pKCpnGpo IlwHpF zq wzr ba - jsp RlC pFGtxlGp V ∗ tF Gsp
FxlwwpFG V CEzoHntyr l rlC JtGsty zyp FGlyolEo opItlGtzy zq Gsp rlC lG V ) %‘
spEp V ∗ ˆ =-
jstF rtIpF V { ˆ =+ Jstns wzzvF EplFzylmwp qEzx QtrHEp %?-?-
0?-“-01 StpElEnstnlw NwHFGpEtyr

jsp EpFHwGF zq lCCwAtyr V!xplyF zE V!xpoztoF nwHFGpEtyr lwrzEtGsxF op!
Cpyo zy Gsp nsztnp qzE Gsp yHxmpE zq nwHFGpEF Gz mp FplEnspo lyo l FGlEGtyr
nzy¨rHElGtzy lFFtryxpyG- Ty nzyGElFG+ stpElEnstnlw nwHFGpEtyr xpGszoF oz
yzG EpDHtEp FHns FCpnt¨nlGtzyF- TyFGplo+ GspA EpDHtEp Gsp HFpE Gz FCpntqA l
xplFHEp zq otFFtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy ’otFuztyG( rEzHCF zq zmFpEIlGtzyF+ mlFpo
zy Gsp CltEJtFp otFFtxtwlEtGtpF lxzyr Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF ty Gsp GJz rEzHCF-
LF Gsp ylxp FHrrpFGF+ GspA CEzoHnp stpElEnstnlw EpCEpFpyGlGtzyF ty Jstns
Gsp nwHFGpEF lG plns wpIpw zq Gsp stpElEnsA lEp nEplGpo mA xpErtyr nwHFGpEF
lG Gsp ypKG wzJpE wpIpw- LG Gsp wzJpFG wpIpw+ plns nwHFGpE nzyGltyF l Ftyrwp
zmFpEIlGtzy- LG Gsp strspFG wpIpw GspEp tF zywA zyp nwHFGpE nzyGltytyr lww zq
Gsp olGl-
iGElGprtpF qzE stpElEnstnlw nwHFGpEtyr otItop tyGz GJz mlFtn ClElotrxF9 lr,
rwzxpElGtIp ’mzGGzx!HC( lyo otItFtIp ’GzC!ozJy(- LrrwzxpElGtIp FGElGprtpF
FGlEG lG Gsp mzGGzx lyo lG plns wpIpw EpnHEFtIpwA xpErp l FpwpnGpo CltE zq
nwHFGpEF tyGz l Ftyrwp nwHFGpE- jstF CEzoHnpF l rEzHCtyr lG Gsp ypKG strspE
wpIpw JtGs zyp wpFF nwHFGpE- jsp CltE nszFpy qzE xpErtyr nzyFtFG zq Gsp GJz
rEzHCF JtGs Gsp FxlwwpFG tyGpErEzHC otFFtxtwlEtGA- OtItFtIp xpGszoF FGlEG
lG Gsp GzC lyo lG plns wpIpw EpnHEFtIpwA FCwtG zyp zq Gsp pKtFGtyr nwHFGpEF lG
%?-“ NwHFGpE LylwAFtF 4=%
GslG wpIpw tyGz GJz ypJ nwHFGpEF- jsp FCwtG tF nszFpy Gz CEzoHnp GJz ypJ
rEzHCF JtGs Gsp wlErpFG mpGJppy!rEzHC otFFtxtwlEtGA- btGs mzGs ClElotrxF
GspEp lEp Y } % wpIpwF ty Gsp stpElEnsA-
Plns wpIpw zq Gsp stpElEnsA EpCEpFpyGF l ClEGtnHwlE rEzHCtyr zq Gsp olGl
tyGz otFuztyG nwHFGpEF zq zmFpEIlGtzyF- jsp pyGtEp stpElEnsA EpCEpFpyGF ly
zEopEpo FpDHpynp zq FHns rEzHCtyrF- TG tF HC Gz Gsp HFpE Gz opntop Jstns
wpIpw ’tq lyA( lnGHlwwA EpCEpFpyGF l ˜ylGHElw˙ nwHFGpEtyr ty Gsp FpyFp GslG
zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGsty plns zq tGF rEzHCF lEp FHffntpyGwA xzEp FtxtwlE Gz plns
zGspE Gsly Gz zmFpEIlGtzyF lFFtrypo Gz otΓpEpyG rEzHCF lG GslG wpIpw- jsp
RlC FGlGtFGtn opFnEtmpo plEwtpE nly mp HFpo qzE GstF CHECzFp-
hpnHEFtIp mtylEA FCwtGGtyr#lrrwzxpElGtzy nly mp EpCEpFpyGpo mA l EzzGpo
mtylEA GEpp- jsp yzopF zq Gsp GEppF EpCEpFpyG rEzHCF- jsp EzzG yzop EpCEp!
FpyGF Gsp pyGtEp olGl FpG- jsp Y GpExtylw yzopF plns EpCEpFpyG zyp zq Gsp
tyotItoHlw zmFpEIlGtzyF ’FtyrwpGzy nwHFGpEF(- Plns yzyGpExtylw yzop ’˜ClE!
pyG˙( slF GJz olHrsGpE yzopF- QzE otItFtIp nwHFGpEtyr Gsp GJz olHrsGpEF
EpCEpFpyG Gsp GJz rEzHCF EpFHwGtyr qEzx Gsp FCwtG zq Gsp ClEpyG: qzE lrrwzx!
pElGtIp nwHFGpEtyr Gsp olHrsGpEF EpCEpFpyG Gsp GJz rEzHCF GslG JpEp xpErpo
Gz qzEx Gsp ClEpyG-
Lww lrrwzxpElGtIp lyo Fzxp otItFtIp xpGszoF ’Jspy ItpJpo mzGGzx!HC(
CzFFpFF l xzyzGzytntGA CEzCpEGA- jslG tF+ Gsp otFFtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy xpErpo
nwHFGpEF tF xzyzGzyp tynEplFtyr JtGs Gsp wpIpw zq Gsp xpErpE- jsHF Gsp
mtylEA GEpp nly mp CwzGGpo Fz GslG Gsp sptrsG zq plns yzop tF CEzCzEGtzylw
Gz Gsp IlwHp zq Gsp tyGpErEzHC otFFtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy tGF GJz olHrsGpEF- jsp
GpExtylw yzopF EpCEpFpyGtyr tyotItoHlw zmFpEIlGtzyF lEp lww CwzGGpo lG BpEz
sptrsG- jstF GACp zq rElCstnlw otFCwlA tF nlwwpo l opyoEzrElx-
L opyoEzrElx CEzItopF l strswA tyGpECEpGlmwp nzxCwpGp opFnEtCGtzy zq
Gsp stpElEnstnlw nwHFGpEtyr ty l rElCstnlw qzExlG- jstF tF zyp zq Gsp xlty
EplFzyF qzE Gsp CzCHwlEtGA zq stpElEnstnlw nwHFGpEtyr xpGszoF-
QzE Gsp xtnEzlEElA olGl+ QtrHEp %?-%= FszJF Gsp opyoEzrElx EpFHwGtyr
qEzx lrrwzxpElGtIp nwHFGpEtyr JtGs lIpElrp wtyvlrp: lrrwzxpElGtIp nwHFGpE!
tyr lyo GstF pKlxCwp lEp otFnHFFpo ty xzEp opGltw wlGpE ty GstF nslCGpE-
NHGGtyr Gsp opyoEzrElx szEtBzyGlwwA lG l ClEGtnHwlE sptrsG ClEGtGtzyF Gsp
olGl tyGz otFuztyG nwHFGpEF EpCEpFpyGpo mA Gsp IpEGtnlw wtypF GslG tyGpEFpnG
tG- jspFp lEp Gsp nwHFGpEF GslG JzHwo mp CEzoHnpo mA GpExtylGtyr Gsp CEz!
npoHEp Jspy Gsp zCGtxlw tyGpErEzHC otFFtxtwlEtGA pKnppoF GslG GsEpFszwo
nHG IlwHp- REzHCF GslG xpErp lG strs IlwHpF+ EpwlGtIp Gz Gsp xpErpE IlwHpF
zq Gsp FHmrEzHCF nzyGltypo JtGsty Gspx wzJpE ty Gsp GEpp+ lEp nlyotolGpF
qzE ylGHElw nwHFGpEF- YzGp GslG GstF xlA znnHE lG FpIpElw otΓpEpyG wpIpwF+
tyotnlGtyr l nwHFGpEtyr stpElEnsA9 GslG tF+ nwHFGpEF ypFGpo JtGsty nwHFGpEF-
iHns l opyoEzrElx tF zqGpy ItpJpo lF l rElCstnlw FHxxlEA zq Gsp olGl
tGFpwq+ ElGspE Gsly l opFnEtCGtzy zq Gsp EpFHwGF zq Gsp lwrzEtGsx- SzJpIpE+
FHns tyGpECEpGlGtzyF FszHwo mp GEplGpo JtGs nlHGtzy- QtEFG+ otΓpEpyG stpElE!
nstnlw xpGszoF ’Fpp mpwzJ(+ lF Jpww lF Fxlww nslyrpF ty Gsp olGl+ nly wplo
Gz DHtGp otΓpEpyG opyoEzrElxF- LwFz+ FHns l FHxxlEA Jtww mp Ilwto zywA Gz
Gsp pKGpyG GslG Gsp CltEJtFp zmFpEIlGtzy otFFtxtwlEtGtpF CzFFpFF Gsp stpElE!
4== %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
LEUKEMIA
BREAST
NSCLC
RENAL
BREAST
NSCLC
LEUKEMIA
LEUKEMIA
NSCLC
NSCLC
CNS
COLON
RENAL
MELANOMA
CNS
BREAST
NSCLC
COLON
OVARIAN
OVARIAN
NSCLC
BREAST
COLON
NSCLC
MELANOMA
OVARIAN
OVARIAN
RENAL
MELANOMA
PROSTATE
CNS
RENAL
MELANOMA
OVARIAN
PROSTATE
MELANOMA
COLON
COLON
RENAL
RENAL
RENAL
NSCLC
NSCLC
LEUKEMIA
LEUKEMIA
COLON
COLON
MELANOMA
RENAL
RENAL
MELANOMA
MELANOMA
CNS
CNS
LEUKEMIA
K562B-repro
K562A-repro
UNKNOWN
OVARIAN
MCF7A-repro
BREAST
BREAST
BREAST
QTRIFD 03W01W OpyoEzrElx qEzx lrrwzxpElGtIp stpElEnstnlw nwHFGpEtyr JtGs MCF7D-repro
lIpElrp wtyvlrp Gz Gsp sHxly GHxzE xtnEzlEElA olGl-
nstnlw FGEHnGHEp CEzoHnpo mA Gsp lwrzEtGsx- StpElEnstnlw xpGszoF txCzFp

stpElEnstnlw FGEHnGHEp JspGspE zE yzG FHns FGEHnGHEp lnGHlwwA pKtFGF ty Gsp
olGl-
jsp pKGpyG Gz Jstns Gsp stpElEnstnlw FGEHnGHEp CEzoHnpo mA l opyoEz!
rElx lnGHlwwA EpCEpFpyGF Gsp olGl tGFpwq nly mp uHorpo mA Gsp nzCspypGtn
nzEEpwlGtzy nzpffntpyG- jstF tF Gsp nzEEpwlGtzy mpGJppy Gsp Y ’Y }%(.= CltE!
JtFp zmFpEIlGtzy otFFtxtwlEtGtpF ott′ tyCHG Gz Gsp lwrzEtGsx lyo GsptE nzEEp!
FCzyotyr nzCspypGtn otFFtxtwlEtGtpF Ntt′ opEtIpo qEzx Gsp opyoEzrElx- jsp
nzCspypGtn otFFtxtwlEtGA Ntt′ mpGJppy GJz zmFpEIlGtzyF ’tW t′ ( tF Gsp tyGpE!
rEzHC otFFtxtwlEtGA lG Jstns zmFpEIlGtzyF t lyo t′ lEp ËFG uztypo GzrpGspE
ty Gsp Flxp nwHFGpE-
jsp nzCspypGtn otFFtxtwlEtGA tF l IpEA EpFGEtnGtIp otFFtxtwlEtGA xplFHEp-
QtEFG+ Gsp Ntt′ zIpE Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF xHFG nzyGlty xlyA GtpF+ Ftynp zywA Y }%
zq Gsp GzGlw Y ’Y } %(.= IlwHpF nly mp otFGtynG- LwFz GspFp otFFtxtwlEtGtpF
zmpA Gsp HwGElxpGEtn typDHlwtGA
Ntt′ ≤ xlK·Ntv W Nt′ v • ’%?-?$(

%?-“ NwHFGpE LylwAFtF 4=“
qzE lyA GsEpp zmFpEIlGtzyF ’tW t′ W v(- LF l rpzxpGEtn pKlxCwp+ FHCCzFp Gsp
olGl JpEp EpCEpFpyGpo lF CztyGF ty l PHnwtoply nzzEotylGp FAFGpx- Ty zEopE
qzE Gsp FpG zq tyGpECztyG otFGlynpF zIpE Gsp olGl Gz nzyqzEx Gz ’%?-?$(+ Gsp
GEtlyrwpF qzExpo mA lww GEtCwpF zq CztyGF xHFG mp tFzFnpwpF GEtlyrwpF JtGs Gsp
HypDHlw wpyrGs yz wzyrpE Gsly Gsp wpyrGs zq Gsp GJz pDHlw FtopF ’Ulty lyo
OHmpF+ %–]](- jspEpqzEp tG tF HyEplwtFGtn Gz pKCpnG rpypElw otFFtxtwlEtGtpF
zIpE lEmtGElEA olGl FpGF Gz nwzFpwA EpFpxmwp GsptE nzEEpFCzyotyr nzCspypGtn
otFFtxtwlEtGtpF lF nlwnHwlGpo qEzx l opyoEzrElx+ pFCpntlwwA tq GspEp lEp yzG
xlyA Gtpo IlwHpF- jsHF Gsp opyoEzrElx FszHwo mp ItpJpo xltywA lF l op!
FnEtCGtzy zq Gsp nwHFGpEtyr FGEHnGHEp zq Gsp olGl lF txCzFpo mA Gsp ClEGtnHwlE
lwrzEtGsx pxCwzApo-
LrrwzxpElGtIp NwHFGpEtyr
LrrwzxpElGtIp nwHFGpEtyr lwrzEtGsxF mprty JtGs pIpEA zmFpEIlGtzy EpCEp!
FpyGtyr l FtyrwpGzy nwHFGpE- LG plns zq Gsp Y } % FGpCF Gsp nwzFpFG GJz ’wplFG
otFFtxtwlE( nwHFGpEF lEp xpErpo tyGz l Ftyrwp nwHFGpE+ CEzoHntyr zyp wpFF nwHF!
GpE lG Gsp ypKG strspE wpIpw- jspEpqzEp+ l xplFHEp zq otFFtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy
GJz nwHFGpEF ’rEzHCF zq zmFpEIlGtzyF( xHFG mp opÿpo-
pG R lyo S EpCEpFpyG GJz FHns rEzHCF- jsp otFFtxtwlEtGA o’RW S( mp!
GJppy R lyo S tF nzxCHGpo qEzx Gsp FpG zq CltEJtFp zmFpEIlGtzy otFFtx!
twlEtGtpF ott′ JspEp zyp xpxmpE zq Gsp CltE t tF ty R lyo Gsp zGspE t′ tF
ty S- ityrwp wtyvlrp ’i ( lrrwzxpElGtIp nwHFGpEtyr GlvpF Gsp tyGpErEzHC
otFFtxtwlEtGA Gz mp GslG zq Gsp nwzFpFG ’wplFG otFFtxtwlE( CltE
oi ’RW S( ˆ xty ott′ , ’%?-?%(

t∈R
t′ ∈S
jstF tF lwFz zqGpy nlwwpo Gsp yplEpFG,yptrsmzE GpnsytDHp- NzxCwpGp wtyvlrp

’N ( lrrwzxpElGtIp nwHFGpEtyr ’qHEGspFG,yptrsmzE GpnsytDHp( GlvpF Gsp ty!
GpErEzHC otFFtxtwlEtGA Gz mp GslG zq Gsp qHEGspFG ’xzFG otFFtxtwlE( CltE
oN ’RW S( ˆ xlK ott′ , ’%?-?=(

t∈R
t′ ∈S
REzHC lIpElrp ’RL( nwHFGpEtyr HFpF Gsp lIpElrp otFFtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy Gsp
rEzHCF
% ∑∑
oRL ’RW S( ˆ ott′ ’%?-?“(
YR YS ′t∈R t ∈S
JspEp YR lyo YS lEp Gsp EpFCpnGtIp yHxmpE zq zmFpEIlGtzyF ty plns rEzHC-

LwGszHrs GspEp slIp mppy xlyA zGspE CEzCzFlwF qzE opÿtyr tyGpErEzHC
otFFtxtwlEtGA ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq lrrwzxpElGtIp nwHFGpEtyr+ Gsp lmzIp GsEpp lEp
Gsp zypF xzFG nzxxzywA HFpo- QtrHEp %?-%“ FszJF pKlxCwpF zq lww GsEpp-
Tq Gsp olGl otFFtxtwlEtGtpF ·ott′ • pKstmtG l FGEzyr nwHFGpEtyr GpyopynA+ JtGs
plns zq Gsp nwHFGpEF mptyr nzxClnG lyo Jpww FpClElGpo qEzx zGspEF+ Gspy lww
GsEpp xpGszoF CEzoHnp FtxtwlE EpFHwGF- NwHFGpEF lEp nzxClnG tq lww zq Gsp
4=? %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
Average Linkage Complete Linkage Single Linkage
QTRIFD 03W02W OpyoEzrElxF qEzx lrrwzxpElGtIp stpElEnstnlw nwHFGpEtyr zq sH,

xly GHxzE xtnEzlEElA olGl-
zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGsty Gspx lEp EpwlGtIpwA nwzFp GzrpGspE ’Fxlww otFFtxtwlEtGtpF(

lF nzxClEpo JtGs zmFpEIlGtzyF ty otΓpEpyG nwHFGpEF- jz Gsp pKGpyG GstF tF
yzG Gsp nlFp+ EpFHwGF Jtww otΓpE-
ityrwp wtyvlrp ’%?-?%( zywA EpDHtEpF GslG l Ftyrwp otFFtxtwlEtGA ott′ + t ∈ R
lyo t′ ∈ S+ mp Fxlww qzE GJz rEzHCF R lyo S Gz mp nzyFtopEpo nwzFp
GzrpGspE+ tEEpFCpnGtIp zq Gsp zGspE zmFpEIlGtzy otFFtxtwlEtGtpF mpGJppy Gsp
rEzHCF- TG Jtww GspEpqzEp slIp l GpyopynA Gz nzxmtyp+ lG EpwlGtIpwA wzJ
GsEpFszwoF+ zmFpEIlGtzyF wtyvpo mA l FpEtpF zq nwzFp tyGpExpotlGp zmFpEIl!
GtzyF- jstF Cspyzxpyzy+ EpqpEEpo Gz lF nsltytyr+ tF zqGpy nzyFtopEpo l op!
qpnG zq Gsp xpGszo- jsp nwHFGpEF CEzoHnpo mA Ftyrwp wtyvlrp nly ItzwlGp Gsp
ñzxClnGypFF˙ CEzCpEGA GslG lww zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGsty plns nwHFGpE Gpyo Gz
mp FtxtwlE Gz zyp lyzGspE+ mlFpo zy Gsp FHCCwtpo zmFpEIlGtzy otFFtxtwlEt!
GtpF ·ott′ •- Tq Jp opÿp Gsp otlxpGpE OR zq l rEzHC zq zmFpEIlGtzyF lF Gsp
wlErpFG otFFtxtwlEtGA lxzyr tGF xpxmpEF
OR ˆ xlK ott′ W ’%?-??(

t∈R
t′ ∈R
Gspy Ftyrwp wtyvlrp nly CEzoHnp nwHFGpEF JtGs IpEA wlErp otlxpGpEF-
NzxCwpGp wtyvlrp ’%?-?=( EpCEpFpyGF Gsp zCCzFtGp pKGEpxp- jJz rEzHCF
R lyo S lEp nzyFtopEpo nwzFp zywA tq lww zq Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF ty GsptE Hytzy
lEp EpwlGtIpwA FtxtwlE- TG Jtww Gpyo Gz CEzoHnp nzxClnG nwHFGpEF JtGs Fxlww
otlxpGpEF ’%?-??(- SzJpIpE+ tG nly CEzoHnp nwHFGpEF GslG ItzwlGp Gsp ñwzFp!
ypFF˙ CEzCpEGA- jslG tF+ zmFpEIlGtzyF lFFtrypo Gz l nwHFGpE nly mp xHns
%?-“ NwHFGpE LylwAFtF 4=4
nwzFpE Gz xpxmpEF zq zGspE nwHFGpEF Gsly GspA lEp Gz Fzxp xpxmpEF zq GsptE
zJy nwHFGpE-
REzHC lIpElrp nwHFGpEtyr ’%?-?“( EpCEpFpyGF l nzxCEzxtFp mpGJppy Gsp
GJz pKGEpxpF zq Ftyrwp lyo nzxCwpGp wtyvlrp- TG lGGpxCGF Gz CEzoHnp Epw,
lGtIpwA nzxClnG nwHFGpEF GslG lEp EpwlGtIpwA qlE lClEG- SzJpIpE+ tGF EpFHwGF
opCpyo zy Gsp yHxpEtnlw Fnlwp zy Jstns Gsp zmFpEIlGtzy otFFtxtwlEtGtpF ott′
lEp xplFHEpo- LCCwAtyr l xzyzGzyp FGEtnGwA tynEplFtyr GElyFqzExlGtzy s’±(
Gz Gsp ott′ + stt′ ˆ s’ott′ (+ nly nslyrp Gsp EpFHwG CEzoHnpo mA ’%?-?“(- Ty
nzyGElFG+ ’%?-?%( lyo ’%?-?=( opCpyo zywA zy Gsp zEopEtyr zq Gsp ott′ lyo
lEp GsHF tyIlEtlyG Gz FHns xzyzGzyp GElyFqzExlGtzyF- jstF tyIlEtlynp tF
zqGpy HFpo lF ly lErHxpyG ty qlIzE zq Ftyrwp zE nzxCwpGp wtyvlrp zIpE rEzHC
lIpElrp xpGszoF-
Zyp nly lErHp GslG rEzHC lIpElrp nwHFGpEtyr slF l FGlGtFGtnlw nzyFtF!
GpynA CEzCpEGA ItzwlGpo mA Ftyrwp lyo nzxCwpGp wtyvlrp- LFFHxp Jp slIp
lGGEtmHGp!IlwHp olGl c j ˆ ’c0 W , , , W cC ( lyo GslG plns nwHFGpE v tF l Ely!
ozx FlxCwp qEzx Fzxp CzCHwlGtzy uztyG opyFtGA Cv ’K(- jsp nzxCwpGp olGl
FpG tF l Elyozx FlxCwp qEzx l xtKGHEp zq V FHns opyFtGtpF- jsp rEzHC
lIpElrp otFFtxtwlEtGA oRL ’RW S( ’%?-?“( tF ly pFGtxlGp zq
∫ ∫
o’KW K′ ( CR ’K( CS ’K′ ( oK oK′ W ’%?-?4(
JspEp o’KW K′ ( tF Gsp otFFtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy CztyGF K lyo K′ ty Gsp FClnp

zq lGGEtmHGp IlwHpF- LF Gsp FlxCwp FtBp Y lCCEzlnspF tyÿtGA oRL ’RW S(
’%?-?“( lCCEzlnspF ’%?-?4(+ Jstns tF l nslElnGpEtFGtn zq Gsp EpwlGtzyFstC
mpGJppy Gsp GJz opyFtGtpF CR ’K( lyo CS ’K( - QzE Ftyrwp wtyvlrp+ oi ’RW S(
’%?-?%( lCCEzlnspF BpEz lF Y → ∞ tyopCpyopyG zq CR ’K( lyo CS ’K( - QzE
nzxCwpGp wtyvlrp+ oN ’RW S( ’%?-?=( mpnzxpF tyÿtGp lF Y → ∞+ lrlty
tyopCpyopyG zq Gsp GJz opyFtGtpF- jsHF+ tG tF yzG nwplE JslG lFCpnGF zq Gsp
CzCHwlGtzy otFGEtmHGtzy lEp mptyr pFGtxlGpo mA oi ’RW S( lyo oN ’RW S(-
PKlxCwp9 SHxly NlynpE XtnEzlEElA OlGl &NzyGtyHpo(

jsp wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp %?-%“ FszJF Gsp opyoEzrElx EpFHwGtyr qEzx lIpElrp
wtyvlrp lrrwzxpElGtIp nwHFGpEtyr zq Gsp FlxCwpF ’nzwHxyF( zq Gsp xtnEzlEElA
olGl- jsp xtoowp lyo EtrsG ClypwF FszJ Gsp EpFHwG HFtyr nzxCwpGp lyo Ftyrwp
wtyvlrp- LIpElrp lyo nzxCwpGp wtyvlrp rlIp FtxtwlE EpFHwGF+ Jstwp Ftyrwp
wtyvlrp CEzoHnpo Hymlwlynpo rEzHCF JtGs wzyr Gsty nwHFGpEF- bp qznHF zy
Gsp lIpElrp wtyvlrp nwHFGpEtyr-
tvp V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr+ stpElEnstnlw nwHFGpEtyr tF FHnnpFFqHw lG nwHFGpEtyr
FtxCwp nlynpEF GzrpGspE- SzJpIpE tG slF zGspE ytnp qplGHEpF- MA nHGGtyr zΓ
Gsp opyoEzrElx lG IlEtzHF sptrsGF+ otΓpEpyG yHxmpEF zq nwHFGpEF pxpErp+
lyo Gsp FpGF zq nwHFGpEF lEp ypFGpo JtGsty zyp lyzGspE- ipnzyowA+ tG rtIpF
Fzxp ClEGtlw zEopEtyr tyqzExlGtzy lmzHG Gsp FlxCwpF- Ty QtrHEp %?-%?+ Jp
slIp lEElyrpo Gsp rpypF ’EzJF( lyo FlxCwpF ’nzwHxyF( zq Gsp pKCEpFFtzy
xlGEtK ty zEopEtyrF opEtIpo qEzx stpElEnstnlw nwHFGpEtyr-
4=[ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
YzGp GslG tq Jp 7tC Gsp zEtpyGlGtzy zq Gsp mElynspF zq l opyoEzrElx lG lyA

xpErp+ Gsp EpFHwGtyr opyoEzrElx tF FGtww nzyFtFGpyG JtGs Gsp FpEtpF zq stpElE!
nstnlw nwHFGpEtyr zCpElGtzyF- Spynp Gz opGpExtyp ly zEopEtyr zq Gsp wplIpF+
Jp xHFG loo l nzyFGEltyG- jz CEzoHnp Gsp EzJ zEopEtyr zq QtrHEp %?-%?+
Jp slIp HFpo Gsp opqlHwG EHwp ty i!f ki9 lG plns xpErp+ Gsp FHmGEpp JtGs
Gsp GtrsGpE nwHFGpE tF Cwlnpo Gz Gsp wpqG ’GzJlEo Gsp mzGGzx ty Gsp EzGlGpo
opyoEzrElx ty Gsp ¨rHEp-( TyotItoHlw rpypF lEp Gsp GtrsGpFG nwHFGpEF CzFFt!
mwp+ lyo xpErpF tyIzwItyr GJz tyotItoHlw rpypF Cwlnp Gspx ty zEopE mA GsptE
zmFpEIlGtzy yHxmpE- jsp Flxp EHwp JlF HFpo qzE Gsp nzwHxyF- XlyA zGspE
EHwpF lEp CzFFtmwp1qzE pKlxCwp+ zEopEtyr mA l xHwGtotxpyFtzylw Fnlwtyr zq
Gsp rpypF: Fpp ipnGtzy %?-]-
jsp GJz!JlA EplEElyrpxpyG zq QtrHEp%?-%? CEzoHnpF ly tyqzExlGtIp Ctn!
GHEp zq Gsp rpypF lyo FlxCwpF- jstF CtnGHEp tF xzEp tyqzExlGtIp Gsly Gsp
ElyozxwA zEopEpo EzJF lyo nzwHxyF zq QtrHEp %-“ zq NslCGpE %- QHEGspE!
xzEp+ Gsp opyoEzrElxF GspxFpwIpF lEp HFpqHw+ lF mtzwzrtFGF nly+ qzE pKlxCwp+
tyGpECEpG Gsp rpyp nwHFGpEF ty GpExF zq mtzwzrtnlw CEznpFFpF-
OtItFtIp NwHFGpEtyr
OtItFtIp nwHFGpEtyr lwrzEtGsxF mprty JtGs Gsp pyGtEp olGl FpG lF l Ftyrwp
nwHFGpE+ lyo EpnHEFtIpwA otItop zyp zq Gsp pKtFGtyr nwHFGpEF tyGz GJz olHrs!
GpE nwHFGpEF lG plns tGpElGtzy ty l GzC!ozJy qlFstzy- jstF lCCEzlns slF yzG
mppy FGHotpo yplEwA lF pKGpyFtIpwA lF lrrwzxpElGtIp xpGszoF ty Gsp nwHFGpE!
tyr wtGpElGHEp- TG slF mppy pKCwzEpo FzxpJslG ty Gsp pyrtyppEtyr wtGpElGHEp
’RpEFsz lyo RElA+ %––=( ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq nzxCEpFFtzy- Ty Gsp nwHFGpEtyr
FpGGtyr+ l CzGpyGtlw loIlyGlrp zq otItFtIp zIpE lrrwzxpElGtIp xpGszoF nly
znnHE Jspy tyGpEpFG tF qznHFpo zy ClEGtGtzytyr Gsp olGl tyGz l EpwlGtIpwA
Fxlww yHxmpE zq nwHFGpEF-
jsp otItFtIp ClElotrx nly mp pxCwzApo mA EpnHEFtIpwA lCCwAtyr lyA zq
Gsp nzxmtylGzEtlw xpGszoF FHns lF V!xplyF ’ipnGtzy %?-“-[( zE V!xpoztoF
’ipnGtzy %?-“-%$(+ JtGs V ˆ =+ Gz CpEqzEx Gsp FCwtGF lG plns tGpElGtzy- SzJ!
pIpE+ FHns ly lCCEzlns JzHwo opCpyo zy Gsp FGlEGtyr nzy¨rHElGtzy FCpnt¨po
lG plns FGpC- Ty lootGtzy+ tG JzHwo yzG ypnpFFlEtwA CEzoHnp l FCwtGGtyr Fp!
DHpynp GslG CzFFpFFpF Gsp xzyzGzytntGA CEzCpEGA EpDHtEpo qzE opyoEzrElx
EpCEpFpyGlGtzy-
L otItFtIp lwrzEtGsx GslG lIztoF GspFp CEzmwpxF JlF CEzCzFpo mA Xln!
ylHrsGzy ixtGs pG lw- ’%–[4(- TG mprtyF mA Cwlntyr lww zmFpEIlGtzyF ty l
Ftyrwp nwHFGpE R- TG Gspy nszzFpF GslG zmFpEIlGtzy JszFp lIpElrp otFFtxt!
wlEtGA qEzx lww Gsp zGspE zmFpEIlGtzyF tF wlErpFG- jstF zmFpEIlGtzy qzExF Gsp
ËFG xpxmpE zq l Fpnzyo nwHFGpE S- LG plns FHnnpFFtIp FGpC GslG zmFpEIlGtzy
ty R JszFp lIpElrp otFGlynp qEzx GszFp ty S+ xtyHF GslG qzE Gsp Epxltytyr
zmFpEIlGtzyF ty R tF wlErpFG+ tF GElyFqpEEpo Gz S- jstF nzyGtyHpF HyGtw Gsp
nzEEpFCzyotyr otΓpEpynp ty lIpElrpF mpnzxpF yprlGtIp- jslG tF+ GspEp lEp
yz wzyrpE lyA zmFpEIlGtzyF ty R GslG lEp+ zy lIpElrp+ nwzFpE Gz GszFp ty
S- jsp EpFHwG tF l FCwtG zq Gsp zEtrtylw nwHFGpE tyGz GJz olHrsGpE nwHFGpEF+
%?-“ NwHFGpE LylwAFtF 4=fi
QTRIFD 03W03W OYL xtnEzlEElA olGl9 lIpElrp wtyvlrp stpElEnstnlw nwHFGpEtyr

slF mppy lCCwtpo tyopCpyopyGwA Gz Gsp EzJF ’rpypF( lyo nzwHxyF ’FlxCwpF(+ op,
GpExtytyr Gsp zEopEtyr zq Gsp EzJF lyo nzwHxyF ’Fpp GpKG(- jsp nzwzEF Elyrp qEzx
mEtrsG rEppy ’yprlGtIp+ HyopE,pKCEpFFpo( Gz mEtrsG Epo ’CzFtGtIp+ zIpE,pKCEpFFpo(-
4=] %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF GElyFqpEEpo Gz S+ lyo GszFp Epxltytyr ty R- jspFp GJz

nwHFGpEF EpCEpFpyG Gsp Fpnzyo wpIpw zq Gsp stpElEnsA- Plns FHnnpFFtIp wpIpw
tF CEzoHnpo mA lCCwAtyr GstF FCwtGGtyr CEznpoHEp Gz zyp zq Gsp nwHFGpEF lG
Gsp CEpItzHF wpIpw- VlHqxly lyo hzHFFppHJ ’%––$( FHrrpFG nszzFtyr Gsp
nwHFGpE lG plns wpIpw JtGs Gsp wlErpFG otlxpGpE ’%?-??( qzE FCwtGGtyr- Ly lw!
GpEylGtIp JzHwo mp Gz nszzFp Gsp zyp JtGs Gsp wlErpFG lIpElrp otFFtxtwlEtGA
lxzyr tGF xpxmpEF
% ∑∑
o3R ˆ ott′ ,
YR ′
t∈R t ∈R
jsp EpnHEFtIp FCwtGGtyr nzyGtyHpF HyGtw lww nwHFGpEF ptGspE mpnzxp FtyrwpGzyF
zE lww xpxmpEF zq plns zyp slIp BpEz otFFtxtwlEtGA qEzx zyp lyzGspE-
0?-? ipwq,ZErlytBtyr clCF

jstF xpGszo nly mp ItpJpo lF l nzyFGEltypo IpEFtzy zq V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr+
ty Jstns Gsp CEzGzGACpF lEp pynzHElrpo Gz wtp ty l zyp! zE GJz!otxpyFtzylw
xlytqzwo ty Gsp qplGHEp FClnp- jsp EpFHwGtyr xlytqzwo tF lwFz EpqpEEpo Gz
lF l nzyFGEltypo GzCzwzrtnlw xlC+ Ftynp Gsp zEtrtylw strs!otxpyFtzylw zmFpE!
IlGtzyF nly mp xlCCpo ozJy zyGz Gsp GJz!otxpyFtzylw nzzEotylGp FAFGpx-
jsp zEtrtylw iZX lwrzEtGsx JlF zywtyp1zmFpEIlGtzyF lEp CEznpFFpo zyp lG
l Gtxp1lyo wlGpE l mlGns IpEFtzy JlF CEzCzFpo- jsp GpnsytDHp lwFz mplEF
l nwzFp EpwlGtzyFstC Gz CEtyntClw nHEIpF lyo FHEqlnpF+ Jstns lEp otFnHFFpo ty
Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy-
bp nzyFtopE l iZX JtGs l GJz!otxpyFtzylw EpnGlyrHwlE rEto zq V CEzGz!
GACpF xH ∈ ThC ’zGspE nsztnpF+ FHns lF spKlrzylw rEtoF+ nly lwFz mp HFpo(-
Plns zq Gsp V CEzGzGACpF lEp ClElxpGEtBpo JtGs EpFCpnG Gz ly tyGprpE
nzzEotylGp CltE ℓH ∈ P0 × P= - SpEp P0 ˆ ·%W =W , , , W D0 •+ FtxtwlEwA P= + lyo
V ˆ D0 ±D= - jsp xH lEp tytGtlwtBpo+ qzE pKlxCwp+ Gz wtp ty Gsp GJz!otxpyFtzylw
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG Cwlyp zq Gsp olGl ’ypKG FpnGtzy(- bp nly Gstyv zq Gsp
CEzGzGACpF lF ˜mHGGzyF+˙ ˜FpJy˙ zy Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG Cwlyp ty l
EprHwlE ClGGpEy- jsp iZX CEznpoHEp GEtpF Gz mpyo Gsp Cwlyp Fz GslG Gsp
mHGGzyF lCCEzKtxlGp Gsp olGl CztyGF lF Jpww lF CzFFtmwp- Zynp Gsp xzopw tF
¨G+ Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF nly mp xlCCpo ozJy zyGz Gsp GJz!otxpyFtzylw rEto-
jsp zmFpEIlGtzyF Kt lEp CEznpFFpo zyp lG l Gtxp- bp ÿo Gsp nwzFpFG
CEzGzGACp xH Gz Kt ty PHnwtoply otFGlynp ty ThC + lyo Gspy qzE lww yptrsmzEF
xv zq xH + xzIp xv GzJlEo Kt Itl Gsp HColGp
xv ← xv ) α’Kt } xv (, ’%?-?[(
jsp ˜yptrsmzEF˙ zq xH lEp opÿpo Gz mp lww xv FHns GslG Gsp otFGlynp

mpGJppy ℓH lyo ℓv tF Fxlww- jsp FtxCwpFG lCCEzlns HFpF PHnwtoply otFGlynp+
lyo ˜Fxlww˙ tF opGpExtypo mA l GsEpFszwo E- jstF yptrsmzEszzo lwJlAF
tynwHopF Gsp nwzFpFG CEzGzGACp xH tGFpwq-
%?-? ipwq,ZErlytBtyr clCF 4=–
YzGtnp GslG otFGlynp tF opÿpo ty Gsp FClnp P0 ×P= zq tyGprpE GzCzwzrtnlw

nzzEotylGpF zq Gsp CEzGzGACpF+ ElGspE Gsly ty Gsp qplGHEp FClnp ThC - jsp
pΓpnG zq Gsp HColGp ’%?-?[( tF Gz xzIp Gsp CEzGzGACpF nwzFpE Gz Gsp olGl+
mHG lwFz Gz xltyGlty l FxzzGs GJz!otxpyFtzylw FClGtlw EpwlGtzyFstC mpGJppy
Gsp CEzGzGACpF-
jsp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp iZX lwrzEtGsx opCpyoF zy Gsp wplEytyr ElGp
α lyo Gsp otFGlynp GsEpFszwo E- jACtnlwwA α tF opnEplFpo qEzx FlA %,$ Gz
$,$ zIpE l qpJ GszHFlyo tGpElGtzyF ’zyp CpE zmFpEIlGtzy(- itxtwlEwA E tF
opnEplFpo wtyplEwA qEzx FGlEGtyr IlwHp h Gz % zIpE l qpJ GszHFlyo tGpElGtzyF-
bp twwHFGElGp l xpGszo qzE nszzFtyr h ty Gsp pKlxCwp mpwzJ-
bp slIp opFnEtmpo Gsp FtxCwpFG IpEFtzy zq Gsp iZX- XzEp FzCstFGtnlGpo
IpEFtzyF xzotqA Gsp HColGp FGpC lnnzEotyr Gz otFGlynp9
xv ← xv ) αs’‖ℓH } ℓv ‖(’Kt } xv (W ’%?-?fi(
JspEp Gsp yptrsmzEszzo qHynGtzy s rtIpF xzEp JptrsG Gz CEzGzGACpF xv JtGs

tyotnpF ℓv nwzFpE Gz ℓH Gsly Gz GszFp qHEGspE lJlA-
Tq Jp Glvp Gsp otFGlynp E Fxlww pyzHrs Fz GslG plns yptrsmzEszzo nzyGltyF
zywA zyp CztyG+ Gspy Gsp FClGtlw nzyypnGtzy mpGJppy CEzGzGACpF tF wzFG- Ty
GslG nlFp zyp nly FszJ GslG Gsp iZX lwrzEtGsx tF ly zywtyp IpEFtzy zq
V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr+ lyo pIpyGHlwwA FGlmtwtBpF lG zyp zq Gsp wznlw xtytxl
qzHyo mA V!xplyF- itynp Gsp iZX tF l nzyFGEltypo IpEFtzy zq V!xplyF
nwHFGpEtyr+ tG tF txCzEGlyG Gz nspnv JspGspE Gsp nzyFGEltyG tF EplFzylmwp
ty lyA rtIpy CEzmwpx- Zyp nly oz GstF mA nzxCHGtyr Gsp EpnzyFGEHnGtzy
pEEzE ‖K } xH ‖= + FHxxpo zIpE zmFpEIlGtzyF+ qzE mzGs xpGszoF- jstF Jtww
ypnpFFlEtwA mp FxlwwpE qzE V!xplyF+ mHG FszHwo yzG mp xHns FxlwwpE tq Gsp
iZX tF l EplFzylmwp lCCEzKtxlGtzy-
LF ly twwHFGElGtIp pKlxCwp+ Jp rpypElGpo –$ olGl CztyGF ty GsEpp otxpy!
FtzyF+ yplE Gsp FHEqlnp zq l slwq FCspEp zq ElotHF %- jsp CztyGF JpEp ty plns
zq GsEpp nwHFGpEF1Epo+ rEppy+ lyo mwHp1wznlGpo yplE ’$W %W $(+ ’$W $W %( lyo
’%W $W $(- jsp olGl lEp FszJy ty QtrHEp %?-%4
MA opFtry+ Gsp Epo nwHFGpE JlF xHns GtrsGpE Gsly Gsp rEppy zE mwHp zypF-
’QHww opGltwF zq Gsp olGl rpypElGtzy lEp rtIpy ty PKpEntFp %?-4-( L 4 × 4 rEto
zq CEzGzGACpF JlF HFpo+ JtGs tytGtlw rEto FtBp h ˆ =: GstF xplyG GslG lmzHG
l GstEo zq Gsp CEzGzGACpF JpEp tytGtlwwA ty plns yptrsmzEszzo- bp oto l
GzGlw zq ?$ ClFFpF GsEzHrs Gsp olGlFpG zq –$ zmFpEIlGtzyF+ lyo wpG E lyo α
opnEplFp wtyplEwA zIpE Gsp “[$$ tGpElGtzyF-
Ty QtrHEp %?-%[ Gsp CEzGzGACpF lEp tyotnlGpo mA ntEnwpF+ lyo Gsp CztyGF
GslG CEzupnG Gz plns CEzGzGACp lEp CwzGGpo ElyozxwA JtGsty Gsp nzEEpFCzyo!
tyr ntEnwp- jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp tytGtlw nzy¨rHElGtzy+ Jstwp Gsp EtrsG
Clypw FszJF Gsp ÿlw zyp- jsp lwrzEtGsx slF FHnnppopo ty FpClElGtyr Gsp
nwHFGpEF: szJpIpE+ Gsp FpClElGtzy zq Gsp Epo nwHFGpE tyotnlGpF GslG Gsp xly!
tqzwo slF qzwopo mlnv zy tGFpwq ’Fpp QtrHEp %?-%fi(- itynp Gsp otFGlynpF ty Gsp
GJz!otxpyFtzylw otFCwlA lEp yzG HFpo+ GspEp tF wtGGwp tyotnlGtzy ty Gsp iZX
CEzupnGtzy GslG Gsp Epo nwHFGpE tF GtrsGpE Gsly Gsp zGspEF-
4“/ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
1.5
0.5
−0.5
−1
1.5
1 1.5
0.5 1
0 0.5
0
−0.5
−0.5
−1 −1
QTRIFD 03W04W itxHwlGpo olGl ty GsEpp nwlFFpF+ yplE Gsp FHEqlnp zq l slwq8
FCspEp-
•• • • •
5 • • •• 5 •••••••••• •• ••• •••••••
•• •••• •••• ••• •• ••• •

4
•• • ••• • ••• • 4 • •
•••• ••••• • ••••••• •••• •••• •

3 • •
3
• • • • •••
•
2 ••••••• • •• •• • • 2 •• •• • • •
•• •
•• ••• •• • ••• •• ••••
1
••••••
1
••• •
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
QTRIFD 03W05W ipwq,zErlytBtyr xlC lCCwtpo Gz slwq,FCspEp olGl pKlxCwp- pqG

Clypw tF Gsp tytGtlw nzy6rHElGtzy+ EtrsG Clypw Gsp 6ylw zyp- jsp 4 × 4 rEto zq
CEzGzGACpF lEp tyotnlGpo mA ntEnwpF+ lyo Gsp CztyGF GslG CEzupnG Gz plns CEzGzGACp
lEp CwzGGpo ElyozxwA JtGsty Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr ntEnwp-
%?-? ipwq,ZErlytBtyr clCF 4“%
QTRIFD 03W06W btEpxpFs EpCEpFpyGlGtzy zq Gsp 6GGpo iZc xzopw ty Th2 - jsp
wtypF EpCEpFpyG Gsp szEtBzyGlw lyo IpEGtnlw porpF zq Gsp GzCzwzrtnlw wlGGtnp- jsp
ozHmwp wtypF tyotnlGp GslG Gsp FHEqlnp JlF qzwopo otlrzylwwA mlnv zy tGFpwq ty zEopE
Gz xzopw Gsp Epo CztyGF- jsp nwHFGpE xpxmpEF slIp mppy utGGpEpo Gz tyotnlGp GsptE
nzwzE+ lyo Gsp CHECwp CztyGF lEp Gsp yzop npyGpEF-
QtrHEp %?-%] FszJF Gsp EpnzyFGEHnGtzy pEEzE+ pDHlw Gz Gsp GzGlw FHx zq
FDHlEpF zq plns olGl CztyG lEzHyo tGF CEzGzGACp- QzE nzxClEtFzy Jp nlEEtpo
zHG l V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr JtGs =4 npyGEztoF+ lyo tyotnlGp tGF EpnzyFGEHnGtzy
pEEzE mA Gsp szEtBzyGlw wtyp zy Gsp rElCs- bp Fpp GslG Gsp iZX Ftryt¨nlyGwA
opnEplFpF Gsp pEEzE+ yplEwA Gz Gsp wpIpw zq Gsp V!xplyF FzwHGtzy- jstF CEz!
ItopF pItopynp GslG Gsp GJz!otxpyFtzylw nzyFGEltyG HFpo mA Gsp iZX tF
EplFzylmwp qzE GstF ClEGtnHwlE olGlFpG-
Ty Gsp mlGns IpEFtzy zq Gsp iZX+ Jp HColGp plns xH Itl
(
Jv Kv
xH ˆ ( , ’%?-?](
Jv
jsp FHx tF zIpE CztyGF Kv GslG xlCCpo ’t-p-+ JpEp nwzFpFG Gz( yptrsmzEF xv
zq xH - jsp JptrsG qHynGtzy xlA mp EpnGlyrHwlE+ GslG tF+ pDHlw Gz % qzE Gsp
yptrsmzEF zq xv + zE xlA opnEplFp FxzzGswA JtGs otFGlynp ‖ℓv }ℓH ‖ lF mpqzEp-
Tq Gsp yptrsmzEszzo FtBp tF nszFpy Fxlww pyzHrs Fz GslG tG nzyFtFGF zywA
zq xv + JtGs EpnGlyrHwlE JptrsGF+ GstF EpoHnpF Gz Gsp V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr
CEznpoHEp opFnEtmpo plEwtpE- TG nly lwFz mp GszHrsG zq lF l otFnEpGp IpEFtzy
zq CEtyntClw nHEIpF lyo FHEqlnpF+ opFnEtmpo ty ipnGtzy %?-4-
4“= %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
50
•
•
40 •
Reconstruction Error
• ••
30
• •
20
•
• ••
• ••
• • •• • •
10
• • • ••••••••••••••••••••••••••
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Iteration
QTRIFD 03W07W Slwq,FCspEp olGl9 EpnzyFGEHnGtzy pEEzE qzE Gsp iZc lF l qHyn,
Gtzy zq tGpElGtzy- PEEzE qzE v,xplyF nwHFGpEtyr tF tyotnlGpo mA Gsp szEtBzyGlw wtyp-
PKlxCwp9 OznHxpyG ZErlytBlGtzy lyo hpGEtpIlw

OznHxpyG EpGEtpIlw slF rltypo txCzEGlynp JtGs Gsp ElCto opIpwzCxpyG zq
Gsp TyGpEypG lyo Gsp bpm+ lyo iZXF slIp CEzIpo Gz mp HFpqHw qzE zErlytB!
tyr lyo tyopKtyr wlErp nzECzEl- jstF pKlxCwp tF Glvpy qEzx Gsp bPMiZX
szxpClrp sGGC9##UpmFzx-sHG-Dt# ’Vzszypy pG lw-+ =$$$(- QtrHEp %?-%– EpC!
EpFpyGF l iZX ¨G Gz %=+$]] ypJFrEzHC nzxC-lt-ypHElw!ypGF lEGtnwpF- jsp
wlmpwF lEp rpypElGpo lHGzxlGtnlwwA mA Gsp bPMiZX FzqGJlEp lyo CEzItop
l rHtop lF Gz Gsp GACtnlw nzyGpyG zq l yzop-
Ty lCCwtnlGtzyF FHns lF GstF+ Gsp oznHxpyGF slIp Gz mp EpCEznpFFpo ty
zEopE Gz nEplGp l qplGHEp IpnGzE- L GpEx,oznHxpyG xlGEtK tF nEplGpo+ JspEp
plns EzJ EpCEpFpyGF l Ftyrwp oznHxpyG- jsp pyGEtpF ty plns EzJ lEp Gsp
EpwlGtIp qEpDHpynA zq plns zq l CEpopÿpo FpG zq GpExF- jspFp GpExF nzHwo
mp l wlErp FpG zq otnGtzylEA pyGEtpF ’4$+$$$ JzEoF(+ zE ly pIpy wlErpE FpG
zq mtrElxF ’JzEo CltEF(+ zE FHmFpGF zq GspFp- jspFp xlGEtnpF lEp GACtnlwwA
IpEA FClEFp+ lyo Fz zqGpy Fzxp CEpCEznpFFtyr tF ozyp Gz EpoHnp Gsp yHxmpE
zq qplGHEpF ’nzwHxyF(- izxpGtxpF Gsp iaO ’ypKG FpnGtzy( tF HFpo Gz EpoHnp
Gsp xlGEtK: Vzszypy pG lw- ’=$$$( HFp l ElyozxtBpo IlEtlyG GspEpzq- jspFp
EpoHnpo IpnGzEF lEp Gspy Gsp tyCHG Gz Gsp iZX-
%?-? ipwq,ZErlytBtyr clCF 4““
QTRIFD 03W08W SplGxlC EpCEpFpyGlGtzy zq Gsp iZc xzopw 6G Gz l nzECHF

zq %=+/]] ypJFrEzHC nzxC-lt-ypHElw!ypGF nzyGEtmHGtzyF ’nzHEGpFA bPMiZc
szxpClrp(- jsp wtrsGpE lEplF tyotnlGp strspE,opyFtGA lEplF- fzCHwlGpo yzopF lEp
lHGzxlGtnlwwA wlmpwpo lnnzEotyr Gz GACtnlw nzyGpyG-
4“? %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
I0
• •
St0 z0 •
• •
• ••
• • • Kt
••
• • • •
• •
QTRIFD 03W1.W jsp 6EFG wtyplE CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG zq l FpG zq olGl- jsp wtyp
xtytxtBpF Gsp GzGlw FDHlEpo otFGlynp qEzx plns CztyG Gz tGF zEGszrzylw CEzupnGtzy
zyGz Gsp wtyp-
Ty GstF lCCwtnlGtzy Gsp lHGszEF slIp opIpwzCpo l ˜Bzzx˙ qplGHEp+ Jstns

lwwzJF zyp Gz tyGpElnG JtGs Gsp xlC ty zEopE Gz rpG xzEp opGltw- jsp ÿlw
wpIpw zq Bzzxtyr EpGEtpIpF Gsp lnGHlw ypJF lEGtnwpF+ Jstns nly Gspy mp Eplo-
0?-4 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF) NHEIpF lyo iHEqlnpF

fEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lEp otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzyF “-?-%+ JspEp GspA Fspo wtrsG
zy Gsp FsEtyvlrp xpnslytFx zq Etorp EprEpFFtzy- fEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lEp
l FpDHpynp zq CEzupnGtzyF zq Gsp olGl+ xHGHlwwA HynzEEpwlGpo lyo zEopEpo
ty IlEtlynp- Ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy Jp CEpFpyG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lF wtyplE
xlytqzwoF lCCEzKtxlGtyr l FpG zq Y CztyGF Kt ∈ ThC - bp Gspy CEpFpyG
Fzxp yzywtyplE rpypElwtBlGtzyF ty ipnGtzy %?-4-=- ZGspE EpnpyG CEzCzFlwF
qzE yzywtyplE lCCEzKtxlGtyr xlytqzwoF lEp otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy %?-–-
0?-4-0 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF

jsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF zq l FpG zq olGl ty ThC CEzItop l FpDHpynp zq mpFG
wtyplE lCCEzKtxlGtzyF Gz GslG olGl+ zq lww ElyvF D ≤ C-
OpyzGp Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF mA K0 W K= W , , , W KY + lyo nzyFtopE Gsp Elyv!D wtyplE
xzopw qzE EpCEpFpyGtyr Gspx
%?-4 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF+ NHEIpF lyo iHEqlnpF 4“4
q ’λ( ˆ < ) aD λW ’%?-?–(
JspEp < tF l wznlGtzy IpnGzE ty ThC + aD tF l C × D xlGEtK JtGs D zEGszrzylw

HytG IpnGzEF lF nzwHxyF+ lyo λ tF l D IpnGzE zq ClElxpGpEF- jstF tF Gsp
ClElxpGEtn EpCEpFpyGlGtzy zq ly lffyp sACpECwlyp zq Elyv D- QtrHEpF %?-=$
lyo %?-=% twwHFGElGp qzE D ˆ % lyo D ˆ =+ EpFCpnGtIpwA- QtGGtyr FHns l xzopw
Gz Gsp olGl mA wplFG FDHlEpF lxzHyGF Gz xtytxtBtyr Gsp EpnzyFGEHnGtzy pEEzE
Y
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xty ‖Kt } < } aD λt ‖= , ’%?-4$(
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tˆ0
bp nly ClEGtlwwA zCGtxtBp qzE < lyo Gsp λt ’PKpEntFp %?-fi( Gz zmGlty
<
— ˆ K3W ’%?-4%(
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jstF wplIpF HF Gz ÿo Gsp zEGszrzylw xlGEtK aD 9

Y
∑
xty 3( } aD aDj ’Kt } K
KK’Kt } K 3(KK= , ’%?-4“(
Te
tˆ0
QzE nzyIpytpynp Jp lFFHxp GslG K 3 ˆ $ ’zGspEJtFp Jp FtxCwA EpCwlnp Gsp

zmFpEIlGtzyF mA GsptE npyGpEpo IpEFtzyF K2t ˆ Kt } K 3(- jsp C × C xlGEtK
SD ˆ aD aDj tF l CEzupnGtzy xlGEtK+ lyo xlCF plns CztyG Kt zyGz tGF Elyv!
D EpnzyFGEHnGtzy SD Kt + Gsp zEGszrzylw CEzupnGtzy zq Kt zyGz Gsp FHmFClnp
FClyypo mA Gsp nzwHxyF zq aD - jsp FzwHGtzy nly mp pKCEpFFpo lF qzwwzJF-
iGlnv Gsp ’npyGpEpo( zmFpEIlGtzyF tyGz Gsp EzJF zq ly Y × C xlGEtK c- bp
nzyFGEHnG Gsp FtyrHwlE IlwHp opnzxCzFtGtzy zq c9
c ˆ kOaj , ’%?-4?(
jstF tF l FGlyolEo opnzxCzFtGtzy ty yHxpEtnlw lylwAFtF+ lyo xlyA lwrz!

EtGsxF pKtFG qzE tGF nzxCHGlGtzy ’RzwHm lyo aly zly+ %–]“+ qzE pKlxCwp(-
SpEp k tF ly Y × C zEGszrzylw xlGEtK ’kj k ˆ TC ( JszFp nzwHxyF HH lEp
nlwwpo Gsp wpqG FtyrHwlE IpnGzEF: a tF l C × C zEGszrzylw xlGEtK ’aj a ˆ TC (
JtGs nzwHxyF IH nlwwpo Gsp EtrsG FtyrHwlE IpnGzEF+ lyo O tF l C × C otlrzylw
xlGEtK+ JtGs otlrzylw pwpxpyGF o0 ≥ o= ≥ ± ± ± ≥ oC ≥ $ vyzJy lF Gsp Fty,
rHwlE IlwHpF- QzE plns Elyv D+ Gsp FzwHGtzy aD Gz ’%?-4“( nzyFtFGF zq Gsp ËFG
D nzwHxyF zq a- jsp nzwHxyF zq kO lEp nlwwpo Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF
zq c ’Fpp ipnGtzy “-4-%(- jsp Y zCGtxlw λ — t ty ’%?-4=( lEp rtIpy mA Gsp ËFG
D CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF ’Gsp Y EzJF zq Gsp Y × D xlGEtK kD OD (-
jsp zyp!otxpyFtzylw CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG wtyp ty Th= tF twwHFGElGpo ty Qtr!
HEp %?-=$- QzE plns olGl CztyG Kt + GspEp tF l nwzFpFG CztyG zy Gsp wtyp+ rtIpy
mA Ht0 o0 I0 - SpEp I0 tF Gsp otEpnGtzy zq Gsp wtyp lyo λ — t ˆ Ht0 o0 xplFHEpF
otFGlynp lwzyr Gsp wtyp qEzx Gsp zEtrty- itxtwlEwA QtrHEp %?-=% FszJF Gsp
4“[ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
• •
•
1.0
• • • • •• ••• ••
• • • • •
• •
•
Second principal component
0.5
• •
•• •
•
• • • •
• • ••• • •
0.0
•• •
• •• •
• ••• •• • • •
•
•• • • • • • • • •
•• •
−0.5
• •
• •••
• • • ••
• • • •
• •
−1.0
−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
First principal component
QTRIFD 03W10W jsp mpFG Elyv,GJz wtyplE lCCEzKtxlGtzy Gz Gsp slwq,FCspEp olGl-
jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp CEzupnGpo CztyGF JtGs nzzEotylGpF rtIpy mA I= Z= + Gsp
6EFG GJz CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF zq Gsp olGl-
GJz!otxpyFtzylw CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG FHEqlnp ¨G Gz Gsp slwq!FCspEp olGl

’wpqG Clypw(- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp CEzupnGtzy zq Gsp olGl zyGz Gsp
ËFG GJz CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF- jstF CEzupnGtzy JlF Gsp mlFtF qzE Gsp tytGtlw
nzy¨rHElGtzy qzE Gsp iZX xpGszo FszJy plEwtpE- jsp CEznpoHEp tF DHtGp
FHnnpFFqHw lG FpClElGtyr Gsp nwHFGpEF- itynp Gsp slwq!FCspEp tF yzywtyplE+ l
yzywtyplE CEzupnGtzy Jtww oz l mpGGpE uzm+ lyo GstF tF Gsp GzCtn zq Gsp ypKG
FpnGtzy-
fEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF slIp xlyA zGspE ytnp CEzCpEGtpF+ qzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp
wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy cI0 slF Gsp strspFG IlEtlynp lxzyr lww wtyplE nzx!
mtylGtzyF zq Gsp qplGHEpF: cI= slF Gsp strspFG IlEtlynp lxzyr lww wtyplE
nzxmtylGtzyF FlGtFqAtyr I= zEGszrzylw Gz I0 + lyo Fz zy-
PKlxCwp9 SlyoJEtGGpy OtrtGF

fEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lEp l HFpqHw Gzzw qzE otxpyFtzy EpoHnGtzy lyo nzx!
CEpFFtzy- bp twwHFGElGp GstF qplGHEp zy Gsp slyoJEtGGpy otrtGF olGl opFnEtmpo
ty NslCGpE %- QtrHEp %?-== FszJF l FlxCwp zq %“$ slyoJEtGGpy “&F+ plns l
otrtGtBpo %[ × %[ rElAFnlwp txlrp+ qEzx l GzGlw zq [4] FHns “&F- bp Fpp
nzyFtopElmwp IlEtlGtzy ty JEtGtyr FGAwpF+ nslElnGpE GstnvypFF lyo zEtpyGl!
Gtzy- bp nzyFtopE GspFp txlrpF lF CztyGF Kt ty Th=4[ + lyo nzxCHGp GsptE
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF Itl Gsp iaO ’%?-4?(-
QtrHEp %?-=“ FszJF Gsp ËFG GJz CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF zq GspFp olGl- QzE
plns zq GspFp ËFG GJz CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF Ht0 lyo Ht= + Jp nzxCHGpo Gsp
40+ =40+ 4$0+ fi40 lyo –40 DHlyGtwp CztyGF+ lyo HFpo Gspx Gz opÿp
Gsp EpnGlyrHwlE rEto FHCpEtxCzFpo zy Gsp CwzG- jsp ntEnwpo CztyGF tyotnlGp
%?-4 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF+ NHEIpF lyo iHEqlnpF 4“fi
QTRIFD 03W11W L FlxCwp zq %“/ slyoJEtGGpy “WF FszJF l IlEtpGA zq JEtGtyr

FGAwpF-
GszFp txlrpF nwzFp Gz Gsp IpEGtnpF zq Gsp rEto+ JspEp Gsp otFGlynp xplFHEp
qznHFpF xltywA zy GspFp CEzupnGpo nzzEotylGpF+ mHG rtIpF Fzxp JptrsG Gz Gsp
nzxCzypyGF ty Gsp zEGszrzylw FHmFClnp- jsp EtrsG CwzG FszJF Gsp txlrpF
nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz GspFp ntEnwpo CztyGF- jstF lwwzJF HF Gz ItFHlwtBp Gsp ylGHEp
zq Gsp ËFG GJz CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF- bp Fpp GslG Gsp I0 ’szEtBzyGlw xzIp!
xpyG( xltywA lnnzHyGF qzE Gsp wpyrGspytyr zq Gsp wzJpE Gltw zq Gsp GsEpp+
Jstwp I= ’IpEGtnlw xzIpxpyG( lnnzHyGF qzE nslElnGpE GstnvypFF- Ty GpExF zq
Gsp ClElxpGEtBpo xzopw ’%?-?–(+ GstF GJz!nzxCzypyG xzopw slF Gsp qzEx
q—’λ( ˆ K
3 ) λ0 I0 ) λ= I=
ˆ ) λ0 ± ) λ= ± , ’%?-44(
SpEp Jp slIp otFCwlApo Gsp ËFG GJz CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG otEpnGtzyF+ I0

lyo I= + lF txlrpF- LwGszHrs GspEp lEp l CzFFtmwp =4[ CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF+
lCCEzKtxlGpwA 4$ lnnzHyG qzE –$0 zq Gsp IlEtlGtzy ty Gsp GsEppF+ %= ln!
nzHyG qzE [“0- QtrHEp %?-=? nzxClEpF Gsp FtyrHwlE IlwHpF Gz GszFp zmGltypo
qzE pDHtIlwpyG HynzEEpwlGpo olGl+ zmGltypo mA ElyozxwA FnElxmwtyr plns
nzwHxy zq c- jsp CtKpwF ty l otrtGtBpo txlrp lEp tyspEpyGwA nzEEpwlGpo+
lyo Ftynp GspFp lEp lww Gsp Flxp otrtG Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF lEp pIpy FGEzyrpE-
4“] %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
• •
• •
•• • •
•• • •
• •• •• •
• •
• • • •O • • •
5
•
O •
O • • • O• ••
• • • • •• • • • • O• • •
• • • •• •• • • • • • • ••• • •
Second Principal Component
•• • • • • •
• • ••••• ••• • • • •• • • • •
• • • • • • • • •
• • • • • •• • • • •• •• • •• • •• •• • •••••• • • ••• • • •• •
• • • •• •
•• • • •• • • • • • •O•
• • •• • • ••
•••• O • • ••• • • •O • •••
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•• • O •••• ••• • •O • • ••
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• • • •• • ••••• •••• • ••• •• ••• •• ••••• • •• • • • ••• ••
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First Principal Component
QTRIFD 03W12W ’ pqG Clypw9( Gsp 6EFG GJz CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF zq Gsp slyo,
JEtGGpy GsEppF- jsp ntEnwpo CztyGF lEp Gsp nwzFpFG CEzupnGpo txlrpF Gz Gsp IpEGtnpF
zq l rEto+ op6ypo mA Gsp xlErtylw DHlyGtwpF zq Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF- ’htrsG
Clypw9( jsp txlrpF nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz Gsp ntEnwpo CztyGF- jspFp FszJ Gsp ylGHEp zq
Gsp 6EFG GJz CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF-
•
80
•
••
• Real Trace
Singular Values
60
• • Randomized Trace
••
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40
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••
0
0 50 100 150 200 250

Dimension
QTRIFD 03W13W jsp =4[ FtyrHwlE IlwHpF qzE Gsp otrtGtBpo GsEppF+ nzxClEpo Gz
GszFp qzE l ElyozxtBpo IpEFtzy zq Gsp olGl ’plns nzwHxy zq y JlF FnElxmwpo(-
%?-4 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF+ NHEIpF lyo iHEqlnpF 4“–
L EpwlGtIpwA Fxlww FHmFpG zq Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF FpEIp lF pKnpwwpyG

wzJpE!otxpyFtzylw qplGHEpF qzE EpCEpFpyGtyr Gsp strs!otxpyFtzylw olGl-
PKlxCwp9 fEznEHFGpF jElyFqzExlGtzyF lyo islCp LIpElrtyr
QTRIFD 03W14W ’ pqG Clypw9( jJz ot;pEpyG otrtGtBpo slyoJEtGGpy iF+ plns EpC,
EpFpyGpo mA –” nzEEpFCzyotyr CztyGF ty Th= - jsp rEppy i slF mppy opwtmpElGpwA
EzGlGpo lyo GElyFwlGpo qzE ItFHlw p;pnG- ’htrsG Clypw9( L fEznEHFGpF GElyFqzExl,
Gtzy lCCwtpF l GElyFwlGtzy lyo EzGlGtzy Gz mpFG xlGns HC Gsp GJz FpG zq CztyGF-
QtrHEp %?-=4 EpCEpFpyGF GJz FpGF zq CztyGF+ Gsp zElyrp lyo rEppy+ ty Gsp
Flxp CwzG- Ty GstF tyFGlynp GspFp CztyGF EpCEpFpyG GJz otrtGtBpo IpEFtzyF
zq l slyoJEtGGpy i+ pKGElnGpo qEzx Gsp FtrylGHEp zq l FHmupnG ˜iHEpFs-˙
QtrHEp %?-=[ FszJF Gsp pyGtEp FtrylGHEpF qEzx Jstns GspFp JpEp pKGElnGpo
’GstEo lyo qzHEGs ClypwF(- jsp FtrylGHEpF lEp EpnzEopo oAylxtnlwwA HFtyr
GzHns!FnEppy opItnpF+ qlxtwtlE FtrsGF ty xzopEy FHCpExlEvpGF- jspEp lEp
Y ˆ –[ CztyGF EpCEpFpyGtyr plns i+ Jstns Jp opyzGp mA Gsp Y × = xlGEtnpF
c0 lyo c= - jspEp tF l nzEEpFCzyopynp mpGJppy Gsp CztyGF1Gsp tGs EzJF
zq c0 lyo c= lEp xplyG Gz EpCEpFpyG Gsp Flxp CzFtGtzyF lwzyr Gsp GJz i&F-
Ty Gsp wlyrHlrp zq xzECszxpGEtnF+ GspFp CztyGF EpCEpFpyG wlyoxlEvF zy
Gsp GJz zmupnGF- SzJ zyp ÿoF FHns nzEEpFCzyotyr wlyoxlEvF tF ty rpypElw
otffnHwG lyo FHmupnG FCpnt¨n- Ty GstF ClEGtnHwlE nlFp Jp HFpo oAylxtn Gtxp
JlECtyr zq Gsp FCppo Ftrylw lwzyr plns FtrylGHEp ’SlFGtp pG lw-+ %––=(+ mHG
Jtww yzG rz tyGz opGltwF spEp-
Ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw Jp slIp lCCwtpo l GElyFwlGtzy lyo EzGlGtzy Gz Gsp rEppy
CztyGF Fz lF mpFG Gz xlGns Gsp zElyrp1l Fz!nlwwpo fEznEHFGpF˜ GElyFqzExl!
Gtzy ’XlEotl pG lw-+ %–fi–+ qzE pKlxCwp(-
NzyFtopE Gsp CEzmwpx
xty KKc= } ’c0 h ) 0<j (KKQ W ’%?-4[(

<WQ
2 fEznEHFGpF JlF ly LqEtnly mlyotG ty REppv xAGszwzrA) Jsz FGEpGnspo zE FDHlFspo
stF ItFtGzEF Gz ¨G stF tEzy mpo ’pIpyGHlwwA vtwwtyr Gspx(-

4?/ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
JtGs c0 lyo c= mzGs Y × C xlGEtnpF zq nzEEpFCzyotyr CztyGF+ h ly zE!

GszyzExlw C × C xlGEtK3 + lyo < l C!IpnGzE zq wznlGtzy nzzEotylGpF- SpEp
KKcKK=Q ˆ GElnp’cj c( tF Gsp FDHlEpo QEzmpytHF xlGEtK yzEx-
pG K30 lyo K3= mp Gsp nzwHxy xply IpnGzEF zq Gsp xlGEtnpF+ lyo c2 0 lyo
2
c= mp Gsp IpEFtzyF zq GspFp xlGEtnpF JtGs Gsp xplyF EpxzIpo- NzyFtopE
Gsp iaO c 2jc 2 = ˆ kOaj - jspy Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz ’%?-4[( tF rtIpy mA ’PKpE!
0
ntFp %?-](
— ˆ kaj
h
— K0 W ’%?-4fi(
<
— ˆ K 3= } h3
lyo Gsp xtytxlw otFGlynpF tF EpqpEEpo Gz lF Gsp fEznEHFGpF otFGlynp- QEzx
Gsp qzEx zq Gsp FzwHGtzy+ Jp nly npyGpE plns xlGEtK lG tGF nzwHxy npyGEzto+
lyo Gspy tryzEp wznlGtzy nzxCwpGpwA- SpEplqGpE Jp lFFHxp GstF tF Gsp nlFp-
jsp fEznEHFGpF otFGlynp JtGs Fnlwtyr FzwIpF l FwtrsGwA xzEp rpypElw
CEzmwpx+
xty KKc= } βc0 hKKQ W ’%?-4](
βWQ
JspEp β / $ tF l CzFtGtIp FnlwlE- jsp FzwHGtzy qzE h tF lF mpqzEp+ JtGs

β— ˆ GElnp’O(.KKc0 KK=Q -
hpwlGpo Gz fEznEHFGpF otFGlynp tF Gsp fEznEHFGpF lIpElrp zq l nzwwpnGtzy
zq FslCpF+ Jstns FzwIpF Gsp CEzmwpx
∑
xty KKcℓ hℓ } XKK=Q : ’%?-4–(
·Qℓ |0 Wy
ℓˆ0
GslG tF+ ÿo Gsp FslCp X nwzFpFG ty lIpElrp FDHlEpo fEznEHFGpF otFGlynp Gz
lww Gsp FslCpF- jstF tF FzwIpo mA l FtxCwp lwGpEylGtyr lwrzEtGsx9
$- TytGtlwtBp X ˆ c0 ’qzE pKlxCwp(-
%- izwIp Gsp fEznEHFGpF EzGlGtzy CEzmwpxF JtGs X ¨Kpo+ Atpwotyr
c′ℓ ← ch— ℓ-
(
=- pG X ← 0 ℓˆ0 c′ℓ -
iGpCF %- lyo =- lEp EpCplGpo HyGtw Gsp nEtGpEtzy ’%?-4–( nzyIpErpF-
QtrHEp %?-=[ FszJF l FtxCwp pKlxCwp JtGs GsEpp FslCpF- YzGp GslG Jp nly
zywA pKCpnG l FzwHGtzy HC Gz l EzGlGtzy: lwGpEylGtIpwA+ Jp nly txCzFp l
nzyFGEltyG+ FHns lF GslG X mp HCCpE!GEtlyrHwlE+ Gz qzEnp HytDHpypFF- Zyp
nly plFtwA tynzECzElGp Fnlwtyr ty Gsp opÿtGtzy ’%?-4–(: Fpp PKpEntFp %?-–-
XzFG rpypElwwA Jp nly opÿp Gsp lffyp,tyIlEtlyG lIpElrp zq l FpG zq
FslCpF Itl
3 jz FtxCwtqA xlGGpEF) Jp nzyFtopE zywA zEGszrzylw xlGEtnpF Jstns tynwHop Ep7pnGtzyF
lF Jpww lF EzGlGtzyF ”Gsp p’C( rEzHCfl: lwGszHrs Ep7pnGtzyF lEp HywtvpwA spEp) GspFp xpGszoF
nly mp EpFGEtnGpo qHEGspE Gz lwwzJ zywA EzGlGtzyF ”ip’C( rEzHCfl-
%?-4 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF+ NHEIpF lyo iHEqlnpF 4?%
QTRIFD 03W15W jsp fEznEHFGpF lIpElrp zq GsEpp IpEFtzyF zq Gsp wplotyr i ty

iHEpFsWF FtrylGHEpF- jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp CEpFslCp lIpElrp+ JtGs plns zq Gsp
FslCpF y′ℓ ty CEpFslCp FClnp FHCpEtxCzFpo- jsp EtrsG GsEpp ClypwF xlC Gsp CEp,
FslCp X FpClElGpwA Gz xlGns plns zq Gsp zEtrtylw iWF-
∑
xty KKcℓ Lℓ } XKK=Q W ’%?-[$(
·Lℓ |0 Wy
ℓˆ0
JspEp Gsp Lℓ lEp lyA C × C yzyFtyrHwlE xlGEtnpF- SpEp Jp EpDHtEp l FGly!

olEotBlGtzy+ FHns lF Xj X ˆ T+ Gz lIzto l GEtItlw FzwHGtzy- jsp FzwHGtzy tF
lGGElnGtIp+ lyo nly mp nzxCHGpo JtGszHG tGpElGtzy ’PKpEntFp %?-%$(9
%- pG Sℓ ˆ cℓ ’cjℓ cℓ (}0 cℓ mp Gsp Elyv!C CEzupnGtzy xlGEtK opÿpo
mA cℓ -
=- X( 3 ˆ
tF Gsp Y ×C xlGEtK qzExpo qEzx Gsp C wlErpFG ptrpyIpnGzEF zq S
0
ℓˆ0 Sℓ -
0?-4-1 fEtyntClw NHEIpF lyo iHEqlnpF

fEtyntClw nHEIpF rpypElwtBp Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG wtyp+ CEzItotyr l FxzzGs
zyp!otxpyFtzylw nHEIpo lCCEzKtxlGtzy Gz l FpG zq olGl CztyGF ty ThC - L CEty!
ntClw FHEqlnp tF xzEp rpypElw+ CEzItotyr l nHEIpo xlytqzwo lCCEzKtxlGtzy
zq otxpyFtzy = zE xzEp-
bp Jtww ËFG opÿp CEtyntClw nHEIpF qzE Elyozx IlEtlmwpF c ∈ ThC + lyo
Gspy xzIp Gz Gsp ÿtGp olGl nlFp- pG q ’λ( mp l ClElxpGpEtBpo FxzzGs
nHEIp ty ThC - Spynp q ’λ( tF l IpnGzE qHynGtzy JtGs C nzzEotylGpF+ plns l
FxzzGs qHynGtzy zq Gsp Ftyrwp ClElxpGpE λ- jsp ClElxpGpE λ nly mp nszFpy+
qzE pKlxCwp+ Gz mp lEn!wpyrGs lwzyr Gsp nHEIp qEzx Fzxp ¨Kpo zEtrty- QzE
plns olGl IlwHp K+ wpG λq ’K( opÿp Gsp nwzFpFG CztyG zy Gsp nHEIp Gz K- jspy
q ’λ( tF nlwwpo l CEtyntClw nHEIp qzE Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp Elyozx IpnGzE
c tq
q ’λ( ˆ P’cKλq ’c( ˆ λ(, ’%?-[%(
jstF FlAF q ’λ( tF Gsp lIpElrp zq lww olGl CztyGF GslG CEzupnG Gz tG+ GslG tF+ Gsp
CztyGF qzE Jstns tG tF ˜EpFCzyFtmwp-˙ jstF tF lwFz vyzJy lF l Fpwq,nzyFtFGpynA
CEzCpEGA- LwGszHrs ty CElnGtnp+ nzyGtyHzHF xHwGtIlEtlGp otFGEtmHGpF slIp
tyÿtGpwA xlyA CEtyntClw nHEIpF ’OHnslxC lyo iGHpGBwp+ %––[(+ Jp lEp
4?= %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
••
••
•• •• ••
•• •• •••• •• ••• ••
•
••
•• •
.••
•• •• •••
•
•• ••
••
•• • ••
•• ••
••
••
q Wλ( ˆ 5q0 Wλ(W q= Wλ(7
••
QTRIFD 03W16W jsp CEtyntClw nHEIp zq l FpG zq olGl- Plns CztyG zy Gsp nHEIp
tF Gsp lIpElrp zq lww olGl CztyGF GslG CEzupnG GspEp-
tyGpEpFGpo xltywA ty Gsp FxzzGs zypF- L CEtyntClw nHEIp tF twwHFGElGpo ty

QtrHEp %?-=fi-
fEtyntClw CztyGF lEp ly tyGpEpFGtyr EpwlGpo nzynpCG- NzyFtopE l FpG zq v
CEzGzGACpF lyo qzE plns CztyG K ty Gsp FHCCzEG zq l otFGEtmHGtzy+ topyGtqA
Gsp nwzFpFG CEzGzGACp+ GslG tF+ Gsp CEzGzGACp GslG tF EpFCzyFtmwp qzE tG- jstF
tyoHnpF l ClEGtGtzy zq Gsp qplGHEp FClnp tyGz Fz!nlwwpo azEzyzt EprtzyF- jsp
FpG zq v CztyGF GslG xtytxtBp Gsp pKCpnGpo otFGlynp qEzx c Gz tGF CEzGzGACp
lEp nlwwpo Gsp CEtyntClw CztyGF zq Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy- Plns CEtyntClw CztyG tF
Fpwq!nzyFtFGpyG+ ty GslG tG pDHlwF Gsp xply zq c ty tGF azEzyzt Eprtzy- QzE
pKlxCwp+ JtGs v ˆ %+ Gsp CEtyntClw CztyG zq l ntEnHwlE yzExlw otFGEtmHGtzy tF
Gsp xply IpnGzE: JtGs v ˆ = GspA lEp l CltE zq CztyGF FAxxpGEtnlwwA Cwlnpo
zy l ElA GsEzHrs Gsp xply IpnGzE- fEtyntClw CztyGF lEp Gsp otFGEtmHGtzylw
lylwzrF zq npyGEztoF qzHyo mA V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr- fEtyntClw nHEIpF nly mp
ItpJpo lF v ˆ ∞ CEtyntClw CztyGF+ mHG nzyFGEltypo Gz wtp zy l FxzzGs nHEIp+
ty l FtxtwlE JlA GslG l iZX nzyFGEltyF V!xplyF nwHFGpE npyGpEF Gz qlww zy
l FxzzGs xlytqzwo-
jz ÿo l CEtyntClw nHEIp q ’λ( zq l otFGEtmHGtzy+ Jp nzyFtopE tGF nzzEotylGp
qHynGtzyF q ’λ( ˆ ”q0 ’λ(W q= ’λ(W , , , W qC ’λ(fl lyo wpG c j ˆ ’c0 W c= W , , , W cC (-
NzyFtopE Gsp qzwwzJtyr lwGpEylGtyr FGpCF9
’l( q—H ’λ( ← P’cH Kλ’c( ˆ λ(: u ˆ %W =W , , , W CW
— ’%?-[=(
’m( λq ’K( ← lErxtyλ′ KKK } q—’λ′ (KK= ,
jsp ËFG pDHlGtzy ¨KpF λ lyo pyqzEnpF Gsp Fpwq!nzyFtFGpynA EpDHtEpxpyG
’%?-[%(- jsp Fpnzyo pDHlGtzy ¨KpF Gsp nHEIp lyo ÿoF Gsp nwzFpFG CztyG zy
%?-4 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF+ NHEIpF lyo iHEqlnpF 4?“
• • •
0.2
•• • • •
• • • •
••
• • • •• •
•
0.1
• •
•• •
• • • •
•
•• •• ••
0.0
λ=
• •
• • •• • • •
• •• ••••• • • • ••
• • •
• •• • • •
•• •
-0.1
• • •• ••
• • •
•• •
•
• •
-0.2
-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
λ0
QTRIFD 03W17W fEtyntClw FHEqlnp 6G Gz slwq,FCspEp olGl- ’ pqG Clypw9( 6GGpo

GJz,otxpyFtzylw FHEqlnp- ’htrsG Clypw9( CEzupnGtzyF zq olGl CztyGF zyGz Gsp FHE,
10 W λ
qlnp+ EpFHwGtyr ty nzzEotylGpF λ 1= -
Gsp nHEIp Gz plns olGl CztyG- btGs ÿtGp olGl+ Gsp CEtyntClw nHEIp lwrzEtGsx
FGlEGF JtGs Gsp wtyplE CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG+ lyo tGpElGpF Gsp GJz FGpCF ty
’%?-[=( HyGtw nzyIpErpynp- L FnlGGpECwzG FxzzGspE tF HFpo Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp
nzyotGtzylw pKCpnGlGtzyF ty FGpC ’l( mA FxzzGstyr plns cH lF l qHynGtzy zq
—
Gsp lEn!wpyrGs λ’c(+ lyo Gsp CEzupnGtzy ty ’m( tF ozyp qzE plns zq Gsp zm!
FpEIpo olGl CztyGF- fEzItyr nzyIpErpynp ty rpypElw tF otffnHwG+ mHG zyp nly
FszJ GslG tq l wtyplE wplFG FDHlEpF ¨G tF HFpo qzE Gsp FnlGGpECwzG FxzzGstyr+
Gspy Gsp CEznpoHEp nzyIpErpF Gz Gsp ËFG wtyplE CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG+ lyo
tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp CzJpE xpGszo qzE ÿotyr Gsp wlErpFG ptrpyIpnGzE zq l
xlGEtK-
fEtyntClw FHEqlnpF slIp pKlnGwA Gsp Flxp qzEx lF CEtyntClw nHEIpF+ mHG
lEp zq strspE otxpyFtzy- jsp xzFGwA nzxxzywA HFpo tF Gsp GJz!otxpyFtzylw
CEtyntClw FHEqlnp+ JtGs nzzEotylGp qHynGtzyF
q ’λ0 W λ= ( ˆ ”q0 ’λ0 W λ= (W , , , W qC ’λ0 W λ= (fl,
jsp pFGtxlGpF ty FGpC ’l( lmzIp lEp zmGltypo qEzx GJz!otxpyFtzylw FHEqlnp
FxzzGspEF- fEtyntClw FHEqlnpF zq otxpyFtzy rEplGpE Gsly GJz lEp ElEpwA HFpo+
Ftynp Gsp ItFHlwtBlGtzy lFCpnG tF wpFF lGGElnGtIp+ lF tF FxzzGstyr ty strs
otxpyFtzyF-
QtrHEp %?-=] FszJF Gsp EpFHwG zq l CEtyntClw FHEqlnp ¨G Gz Gsp slwq!FCspEp
olGl- fwzGGpo lEp Gsp olGl CztyGF lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp pFGtxlGpo yzywtyplE
nzzEotylGpF λ— 0 ’Kt (W λ
— = ’Kt (- jsp nwlFF FpClElGtzy tF pItopyG-
fEtyntClw FHEqlnpF lEp IpEA FtxtwlE Gz Fpwq!zErlytBtyr xlCF- Tq Jp HFp l
vpEypw FHEqlnp FxzzGspE Gz pFGtxlGp plns nzzEotylGp qHynGtzy qH ’λ0 W λ= (+
GstF slF Gsp Flxp qzEx lF Gsp mlGns IpEFtzy zq iZXF ’%?-?](- jsp iZX
JptrsGF Jv lEp uHFG Gsp JptrsGF ty Gsp vpEypw- jspEp tF l otΓpEpynp+ szJpIpE9
4?? %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
Gsp CEtyntClw FHEqlnp pFGtxlGpF l FpClElGp CEzGzGACp q ’λ0 ’Kt (W λ= ’Kt (( qzE
plns olGl CztyG Kt + Jstwp Gsp iZX FslEpF l FxlwwpE yHxmpE zq CEzGzGACpF
qzE lww olGl CztyGF- LF l EpFHwG+ Gsp iZX lyo CEtyntClw FHEqlnp Jtww lrEpp
zywA lF Gsp yHxmpE zq iZX CEzGzGACpF rEzJF IpEA wlErp-
jspEp lwFz tF l nzynpCGHlw otΓpEpynp mpGJppy Gsp GJz- fEtyntClw FHE!
qlnpF CEzItop l FxzzGs ClElxpGpEtBlGtzy zq Gsp pyGtEp xlytqzwo ty GpExF
zq tGF nzzEotylGp qHynGtzyF+ Jstwp iZXF lEp otFnEpGp lyo CEzoHnp zywA Gsp
pFGtxlGpo CEzGzGACpF qzE lCCEzKtxlGtyr Gsp olGl- jsp FxzzGs ClElxpGpE!
tBlGtzy ty CEtyntClw FHEqlnpF CEpFpEIpF otFGlynp wznlwwA9 ty QtrHEp %?-=] tG
EpIplwF GslG Gsp Epo nwHFGpE tF GtrsGpE Gsly Gsp rEppy zE mwHp nwHFGpEF- Ty
FtxCwp pKlxCwpF Gsp pFGtxlGpF nzzEotylGp qHynGtzyF GspxFpwIpF nly mp ty!
qzExlGtIp9 Fpp PKpEntFp%?-%“-
0?-4-“ iCpnGElw NwHFGpEtyr

jElotGtzylw nwHFGpEtyr xpGszoF wtvp V!xplyF HFp l FCspEtnlw zE pwwtCGtnlw
xpGEtn Gz rEzHC olGl CztyGF- Spynp GspA Jtww yzG JzEv Jpww Jspy Gsp nwHF!
GpEF lEp yzy!nzyIpK+ FHns lF Gsp nzynpyGEtn ntEnwpF ty Gsp GzC wpqG Clypw zq
QtrHEp %?-=–- iCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr tF l rpypElwtBlGtzy zq FGlyolEo nwHFGpEtyr
xpGszoF+ lyo tF opFtrypo qzE GspFp FtGHlGtzyF- TG slF nwzFp nzyypnGtzyF JtGs
Gsp wznlw xHwGtotxpyFtzylw!Fnlwtyr GpnsytDHpF ’ipnGtzy %?-–( GslG rpypElwtBp
XOi-
jsp FGlEGtyr CztyG tF l Y × Y xlGEtK zq CltEJtFp FtxtwlEtGtpF Ftt′ ≥ $ mp!
GJppy lww zmFpEIlGtzy CltEF- bp EpCEpFpyG Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF ty ly HyotEpnGpo
FtxtwlEtGA rElCs R ˆ 〈aW P〉- jsp Y IpEGtnpF It EpCEpFpyG Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF+
lyo CltEF zq IpEGtnpF lEp nzyypnGpo mA ly porp tq GsptE FtxtwlEtGA tF CzFtGtIp
’zE pKnppoF Fzxp GsEpFszwo(- jsp porpF lEp JptrsGpo mA Gsp Ftt′ - NwHFGpEtyr
tF yzJ EpCsElFpo lF l rElCs!ClEGtGtzy CEzmwpx+ JspEp Jp topyGtqA nzyypnGpo
nzxCzypyGF JtGs nwHFGpEF- bp JtFs Gz ClEGtGtzy Gsp rElCs+ FHns GslG porpF
mpGJppy otΓpEpyG rEzHCF slIp wzJ JptrsG+ lyo JtGsty l rEzHC slIp strs
JptrsG- jsp topl ty FCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr tF Gz nzyFGEHnG FtxtwlEtGA rElCsF GslG
EpCEpFpyG Gsp wznlw yptrsmzEszzo EpwlGtzyFstCF mpGJppy zmFpEIlGtzyF-
jz xlvp GstyrF xzEp nzynEpGp+ nzyFtopE l FpG zq Y CztyGF Kt ∈ ThC + lyo wpG
ott′ mp Gsp PHnwtoply otFGlynp mpGJppy Kt lyo Kt′ - bp Jtww HFp lF FtxtwlEtGA
xlGEtK Gsp Elotlw!vpEypw rElx xlGEtK: GslG tF+ Ftt′ ˆ pKC’}o=tt′ .n(+ JspEp
n / $ tF l Fnlwp ClElxpGpE-
jspEp lEp xlyA JlAF Gz opÿp l FtxtwlEtGA xlGEtK lyo tGF lFFzntlGpo
FtxtwlEtGA rElCs GslG Ep7pnG wznlw mpslItzE- jsp xzFG CzCHwlE tF Gsp xHGHlw
V,yplEpFG,yptrsmzE rElCs- Opÿp YV Gz mp Gsp FAxxpGEtn FpG zq yplEmA
CltEF zq CztyGF: FCpnt¨nlwwA l CltE ’tW t′ ( tF ty YV tq CztyG t tF lxzyr Gsp
V!yplEpFG yptrsmzEF zq t′ + zE Itnp!IpEFl- jspy Jp nzyypnG lww FAxxpGEtn
yplEpFG yptrsmzEF+ lyo rtIp Gspx porp JptrsG Jtt′ ˆ Ftt′ : zGspEJtFp Gsp
porp JptrsG tF BpEz- PDHtIlwpyGwA Jp FpG Gz BpEz lww Gsp CltEJtFp FtxtwlEtGtpF
yzG ty YV + lyo oElJ Gsp rElCs qzE GstF xzot¨po FtxtwlEtGA xlGEtK-
%?-4 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF+ NHEIpF lyo iHEqlnpF 4?4
LwGpEylGtIpwA+ l qHwwA nzyypnGpo rElCs tynwHopF lww CltEJtFp porpF JtGs

JptrsGF Jtt′ ˆ Ftt′ + lyo Gsp wznlw mpslItzE tF nzyGEzwwpo mA Gsp Fnlwp ClElx!
pGpE n-
jsp xlGEtK zq porp JptrsGF b ˆ ·Jtt′ • qEzx l FtxtwlEtGA( rElCs tF nlwwpo
Gsp loulnpynA xlGEtK- jsp oprEpp zq IpEGpK t tF rt ˆ t′ Jtt′ + Gsp FHx zq
Gsp JptrsGF zq Gsp porpF nzyypnGpo Gz tG- pG R mp l otlrzylw xlGEtK JtGs
otlrzylw pwpxpyGF rt -
QtylwwA+ Gsp rElCs lCwlntly tF opÿpo mA
ˆR}b ’%?-[“(
jstF tF nlwwpo Gsp HyyzExlwtBpo rElCs lCwlntly: l yHxmpE zq yzExlwtBpo

IpEFtzyF slIp mppy CEzCzFpo1GspFp FGlyolEotBp Gsp lCwlntly JtGs EpFCpnG
Gz Gsp yzop oprEppF rt + qzE pKlxCwp+ 2 ˆ T } R}0 b-
iCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr ÿoF Gsp x ptrpyIpnGzEF eY ×x nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz Gsp
x FxlwwpFG ptrpyIlwHpF zq ’tryzEtyr Gsp GEtItlw nzyFGlyG ptrpyIpnGzE(-
kFtyr l FGlyolEo xpGszo wtvp V!xplyF+ Jp Gspy nwHFGpE Gsp EzJF zq e Gz
Atpwo l nwHFGpEtyr zq Gsp zEtrtylw olGl CztyGF-
Ly pKlxCwp tF CEpFpyGpo ty QtrHEp %?-=–- jsp GzC wpqG Clypw FszJF ?4$
FtxHwlGpo olGl CztyGF ty GsEpp ntEnHwlE nwHFGpEF tyotnlGpo mA Gsp nzwzEF- V!
xplyF nwHFGpEtyr JzHwo nwplEwA slIp otffnHwGA topyGtqAtyr Gsp zHGpE nwHFGpEF-
bp lCCwtpo FCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr HFtyr l %$!yplEpFG yptrsmzE FtxtwlEtGA rElCs+
lyo otFCwlA Gsp ptrpyIpnGzE nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz Gsp Fpnzyo lyo GstEo FxlwwpFG
ptrpyIlwHp zq Gsp rElCs lCwlntly ty Gsp wzJpE wpqG- jsp %4 FxlwwpFG ptrpy!
IlwHpF lEp FszJy ty Gsp GzC EtrsG Clypw- jsp GJz ptrpyIpnGzEF FszJy slIp
topyGt¨po Gsp GsEpp nwHFGpEF+ lyo l FnlGGpECwzG zq Gsp EzJF zq Gsp ptrpyIpnGzE
xlGEtK d ty Gsp mzGGzx EtrsG nwplEwA FpClElGpF Gsp nwHFGpEF- L CEznpoHEp
FHns lF V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr lCCwtpo Gz GspFp GElyFqzExpo CztyGF JzHwo plF!
twA topyGtqA Gsp GsEpp rEzHCF-
bsA ozpF FCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr JzEv¯ QzE lyA IpnGzE D Jp slIp
Y
∑ Y ∑
∑ Y
Dj D ˆ rt qt= } qt qt′ Jtt′
tˆ0 tˆ0 t′ ˆ0
Y Y
%∑∑
ˆ Jtt′ ’qt } qt′ (= , ’%?-[?(
= tˆ0 ′
t ˆ0
QzExHwl %?-[? FHrrpFGF GslG l Fxlww IlwHp zq D j D Jtww mp lnstpIpo tq CltEF

zq CztyGF JtGs wlErp loulnpyntpF slIp nzzEotylGpF qt lyo qt′ nwzFp GzrpGspE-
itynp 0j 0 ˆ $ qzE lyA rElCs+ Gsp nzyFGlyG IpnGzE tF l GEtItlw ptrpyIpnGzE
JtGs ptrpyIlwHp BpEz- YzG Fz zmItzHF tF Gsp qlnG GslG tq Gsp rElCs tF nzy!
ypnGpo4 + tG tF Gsp zywA BpEz ptrpyIpnGzE ’PKpEntFp %?-=%(- RpypElwtBtyr GstF
lErHxpyG+ tG tF plFA Gz FszJ GslG qzE l rElCs JtGs x nzyypnGpo nzxCzypyGF+
4L rElCs tF nzyypnGpo tq lyA GJz yzopF nly mp Eplnspo Itl l ClGs zq nzyypnGpo yzopF-
4?[ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
0.5
4
0.4
2
0.3
Eigenvalue
x2
0.2
−2
0.1
−4
0.0
−4 −2 0 2 4 1 3 5 10 15
x1 Number
Eigenvectors Spectral Clustering

0.05
0.06
2nd Smallest
Third Smallest Eigenvector

−0.05
0.02
0.05
−0.02
3rd Smallest
−0.05
−0.06
0 100 200 300 400 −0.04 −0.02 0.00 0.02
Index Second Smallest Eigenvector
QTRIFD 03W18W jzA pKlxCwp twwHFGElGtyr FCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr- OlGl ty GzC wpqG lEp
?4/ CztyGF qlwwtyr ty GsEpp nzynpyGEtn nwHFGpEF zq %4/ CztyGF plns- jsp CztyGF lEp
HytqzExwA otFGEtmHGpo ty lyrwp+ JtGs ElotHF %W =,] lyo 4 ty Gsp GsEpp rEzHCF+ lyo
RlHFFtly yztFp JtGs FGlyolEo opItlGtzy /,=4 loopo Gz plns CztyG- kFtyr l v ˆ %/
yplEpFG,yptrsmzE FtxtwlEtGA rElCs+ Gsp ptrpyIpnGzE nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz Gsp Fpnzyo lyo
GstEo FxlwwpFG ptrpyIlwHpF zq lEp FszJy ty Gsp mzGGzx wpqG‘ Gsp FxlwwpFG ptrpy,
IpnGzE tF nzyFGlyG- jsp olGl CztyGF lEp nzwzEpo ty Gsp Flxp JlA lF ty Gsp GzC wpqG-
jsp %4 FxlwwpFG ptrpyIlwHpF lEp FszJy ty Gsp GzC EtrsG Clypw- jsp nzzEotylGpF zq
Gsp =yo lyo “Eo ptrpyIpnGzEF ’Gsp ?4/ EzJF zq C( lEp CwzGGpo ty Gsp mzGGzx EtrsG
Clypw- iCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr ozpF FGlyolEo ’p-r-+ V,xplyF( nwHFGpEtyr zq GspFp CztyGF
lyo Jtww plFtwA EpnzIpE Gsp GsEpp zEtrtylw nwHFGpEF-
%?-4 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF+ NHEIpF lyo iHEqlnpF 4?fi
Gsp yzopF nly mp EpzEopEpo Fz GslG tF mwznv otlrzylw JtGs l mwznv qzE plns
nzyypnGpo nzxCzypyG- jspy slF x ptrpyIpnGzEF zq ptrpyIlwHp BpEz+ lyo
Gsp ptrpyFClnp zq ptrpyIlwHp BpEz tF FClyypo mA Gsp tyotnlGzE IpnGzEF zq Gsp
nzyypnGpo nzxCzypyGF- Ty CElnGtnp zyp slF FGEzyr lyo Jplv nzyypnGtzyF+
Fz BpEz ptrpyIlwHpF lEp lCCEzKtxlGpo mA Fxlww ptrpyIlwHpF-
iCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr tF ly tyGpEpFGtyr lCCEzlns qzE ÿotyr yzy!nzyIpK nwHF!
GpEF- bspy l yzExlwtBpo rElCs lCwlntly tF HFpo+ GspEp tF lyzGspE JlA Gz
ItpJ GstF xpGszo- Opÿtyr f ˆ R}0 b+ Jp nzyFtopE l Elyozx Jlwv zy
Gsp rElCs JtGs GElyFtGtzy CEzmlmtwtGA xlGEtK f- jspy FCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr
AtpwoF rEzHCF zq yzopF FHns GslG Gsp Elyozx Jlwv Fpwozx GElyFtGtzyF qEzx
zyp rEzHC Gz lyzGspE-
jspEp lEp l yHxmpE zq tFFHpF GslG zyp xHFG oplw JtGs ty lCCwAtyr FCpn!
GElw nwHFGpEtyr ty CElnGtnp- bp xHFG nszzFp Gsp GACp zq FtxtwlEtGA rElCs1pr-
qHwwA nzyypnGpo zE yplEpFG yptrsmzEF+ lyo lFFzntlGpo ClElxpGpEF FHns lF Gsp
yHxmpE zq yplEpFG zq yptrsmzEF v zE Gsp Fnlwp ClElxpGpE zq Gsp vpEypw n- bp
xHFG lwFz nszzFp Gsp yHxmpE zq ptrpyIpnGzEF Gz pKGElnG qEzx lyo ÿlwwA+
lF JtGs lww nwHFGpEtyr xpGszoF+ Gsp yHxmpE zq nwHFGpEF- Ty Gsp GzA pKlxCwp
zq QtrHEp %?-=– Jp zmGltypo rzzo EpFHwGF qzE v ∈ ”4W =$$fl+ Gsp IlwHp =$$ nzE!
EpFCzyotyr Gz l qHwwA nzyypnGpo rElCs- btGs v ı 4 Gsp EpFHwGF opGpEtzElGpo-
zzvtyr lG Gsp GzC!EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp %?-=–+ Jp Fpp yz FGEzyr FpClElGtzy
mpGJppy Gsp FxlwwpFG GsEpp ptrpyIlwHpF lyo Gsp EpFG- Spynp tG tF yzG nwplE
szJ xlyA ptrpyIpnGzEF Gz FpwpnG-
0?-4-? VpEypw fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF

iCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr tF EpwlGpo Gz vpEypw CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF+ l yzy!wtyplE
IpEFtzy zq wtyplE CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF- iGlyolEo wtyplE CEtyntClw nzxCz!
ypyGF ’fNL( lEp zmGltypo qEzx Gsp ptrpyIpnGzEF zq Gsp nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK+
lyo rtIp otEpnGtzyF ty Jstns Gsp olGl slIp xlKtxlw IlEtlynp- VpEypw fNL
’ins6zwvzCq pG lw-+ %–––( pKClyo Gsp FnzCp zq fNL+ xtxtnvtyr JslG Jp JzHwo
zmGlty tq Jp JpEp Gz pKClyo Gsp qplGHEpF mA yzy!wtyplE GElyFqzExlGtzyF+ lyo
Gspy lCCwA fNL ty GstF GElyFqzExpo qplGHEp FClnp-
bp FszJ ty ipnGtzy %]-4-= GslG Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF IlEtlmwpF e zq
l olGl xlGEtK c nly mp nzxCHGpo qEzx Gsp tyypE!CEzoHnG ’rElx( xlGEtK
V ˆ ccj - Ty opGltw+ Jp nzxCHGp Gsp ptrpy!opnzxCzFtGtzy zq Gsp ozHmwp!
npyGpEpo IpEFtzy zq Gsp rElx xlGEtK
Ṽ ˆ ’T } X(V’T } X( ˆ kO= kj W ’%?-[4(
j
JtGs X ˆ 00 .Y + lyo Gspy e ˆ kO- PKpEntFp %]-%4 FszJF szJ Gz nzx!
CHGp Gsp CEzupnGtzyF zq ypJ zmFpEIlGtzyF ty GstF FClnp-
VpEypw fNL FtxCwA xtxtnF GstF CEznpoHEp+ tyGpECEpGtyr Gsp vpEypw xl!
GEtK V ˆ ·V’Kt W Kt′ (• lF ly tyypE!CEzoHnG xlGEtK zq Gsp txCwtntG qpl!
GHEpF 〈φ’Kt (W φ’Kt′ (〉 lyo ÿotyr tGF ptrpyIpnGzEF- jsp pwpxpyGF zq Gsp xGs
nzxCzypyG Bx ’xGs nzwHxy zq e( nly mp JEtGGpy ’HC Gz npyGpEtyr( lF
(Y
Btx ˆ Hˆ0 αHx V’Kt W KH (+ JspEp αHx ˆ HHx .ox ’PKpEntFp %?-%[(-
4?] %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
bp nly rlty xzEp tyFtrsG tyGz vpEypw fNL mA ItpJtyr Gsp Bx lF Flx!
Cwp pIlwHlGtzyF zq CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG qHynGtzyF rx ∈ SV + JtGs SV Gsp
EpCEzoHntyr vpEypw StwmpEG FClnp rpypElGpo mA V ’Fpp ipnGtzy 4-]-%(- jsp
ËFG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG qHynGtzy r0 FzwIpF
xlK alEH r0 ’c( FHmupnG Gz KKr0 KKSa ˆ % ’%?-[[(

r0 ∈Sa
SpEp alEH EpqpEF Gz Gsp FlxCwp IlEtlynp zIpE GEltytyr olGl H - jsp yzEx
nzyFGEltyG KKr0 KKSa ˆ % nzyGEzwF Gsp FtBp lyo EzHrsypFF zq Gsp qHynGtzy r0 +
lF otnGlGpo mA Gsp vpEypw V- LF ty Gsp EprEpFFtzy nlFp tG nly mp FszJy GslG
Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz ’%?-[[( tF ÿtGp otxpyFtzylw JtGs EpCEpFpyGlGtzy r0 ’K( ˆ
(Y
Hˆ0 nH V’KW KH (- PKpEntFp %?-%fi FszJF GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy tF opÿpo mA n
—H ˆ
αH0 W u ˆ %W , , , W Y lmzIp- jsp Fpnzyo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG qHynGtzy tF op!
ÿpo ty l FtxtwlE JlA+ JtGs Gsp lootGtzylw nzyFGEltyG GslG 〈r0 W r= 〉Sa ˆ $+
lyo Fz zy-[
ins6zwvzCq pG lw- ’%–––( opxzyFGElGp Gsp HFp zq vpEypw CEtyntClw nzxCz!
ypyGF lF qplGHEpF qzE slyoJEtGGpy!otrtG nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ lyo FszJ GslG GspA
nly txCEzIp Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq l nwlFFt¨pE Jspy GspFp lEp HFpo tyFGplo zq
wtyplE CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF-
YzGp GslG tq Jp HFp Gsp Elotlw vpEypw
V’KW K′ ( ˆ pKC’}‖K } K′ ‖= .n(W ’%?-[fi(
Gspy Gsp vpEypw xlGEtK V slF Gsp Flxp qzEx lF Gsp FtxtwlEtGA xlGEtK i ty
FCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr- jsp xlGEtK zq porp JptrsGF b tF l wznlwtBpo IpEFtzy zq
V+ FpGGtyr Gz BpEz lww FtxtwlEtGtpF qzE CltEF zq CztyGF GslG lEp yzG yplEpFG
yptrsmzEF-
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HpF zq Ṽ: GstF tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz ÿotyr Gsp ptrpyIpnGzEF nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz Gsp
FxlwwpFG ptrpyIlwHpF zq
T } Ṽ, ’%?-[](
jstF tF lwxzFG Gsp Flxp lF Gsp lCwlntly ’%?-[“(+ Gsp otΓpEpynpF mptyr Gsp
npyGpEtyr zq Ṽ lyo Gsp qlnG GslG R slF Gsp oprEppF zq Gsp yzopF lwzyr Gsp
otlrzylw-
QtrHEp %?-“$ pKlxtypF Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq vpEypw CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF
ty Gsp GzA pKlxCwp zq QtrHEp %?-=–- Ty Gsp HCCpE wpqG Clypw Jp HFpo Gsp El!
otlw vpEypw JtGs n ˆ =+ Gsp Flxp IlwHp GslG JlF HFpo ty FCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr-
jstF ozpF yzG FpClElGp Gsp rEzHCF+ mHG JtGs n ˆ %$ ’HCCpE EtrsG Clypw(+ Gsp
ËFG nzxCzypyG FpClElGpF Gsp rEzHCF Jpww- Ty Gsp wzJpE!wpqG Clypw Jp lC!
Cwtpo vpEypw fNL HFtyr Gsp yplEpFG!yptrsmzE Elotlw vpEypw b qEzx FCpnGElw
nwHFGpEtyr- Ty Gsp wzJpE EtrsG Clypw Jp HFp Gsp vpEypw xlGEtK tGFpwq lF Gsp
5 jstF FpnGtzy mpyp¨Gpo qEzx spwCqHw otFnHFFtzyF JtGs UzylGsly jlAwzE-

%?-4 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF+ NHEIpF lyo iHEqlnpF 4?–
Radial Kernel (c=2) Radial Kernel (c=10)

0.10
0.05
Second Largest Eigenvector

0.05
0.00
0.00
−0.05
−0.05
−0.10
−0.10 −0.06 −0.02 0.02 −0.06 −0.02 0.02 0.06
First Largest Eigenvector First Largest Eigenvector
NN Radial Kernel (c=2) Radial Kernel Laplacian (c=2)

0.2
0.15
Third Smallest Eigenvector

0.1
0.10
0.05
0.0
0.00
−0.1
−0.10
−0.2
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 −0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
First Largest Eigenvector Second Smallest Eigenvector
QTRIFD 03W2.W VpEypw CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lCCwtpo Gz Gsp GzA pKlxCwp zq Qtr,
HEp %3-=–+ HFtyr ot;pEpyG vpEypwF- ’jzC wpqG9( hlotlw vpEypw ’%3-”fi( JtGs y ˆ =-
’jzC EtrsG9( hlotlw vpEypw JtGs y ˆ %/- ’MzGGzx wpqG(9 YplEpFG yptrsmzE Elotlw vpE,
ypw x qEzx FCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr- ’MzGGzx EtrsG9( iCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr JtGs lCwlntly
nzyFGEHnGpo qEzx Gsp Elotlw vpEypw-
44/ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
FtxtwlEtGA xlGEtK qzE nzyFGEHnGtyr Gsp lCwlntly ’%?-[“( ty FCpnGElw nwHFGpE!

tyr- Ty yptGspE nlFp oz Gsp CEzupnGtzyF FpClElGp Gsp GJz rEzHCF- LouHFGtyr
n oto yzG spwC ptGspE-
Ty GstF GzA pKlxCwp+ Jp Fpp GslG vpEypw fNL tF DHtGp FpyFtGtIp Gz Gsp Fnlwp
lyo ylGHEp zq Gsp vpEypw- bp lwFz Fpp GslG Gsp yplEpFG!yptrsmzE GEHynlGtzy
zq Gsp vpEypw tF txCzEGlyG qzE Gsp FHnnpFF zq FCpnGElw nwHFGpEtyr-
0?-4-4 iClEFp fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF

bp zqGpy tyGpECEpG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF mA pKlxtytyr Gsp otEpnGtzy IpnGzEF
IH + lwFz vyzJy lF wzlotyrF+ Gz Fpp Jstns IlEtlmwpF CwlA l Ezwp- bp oto GstF
JtGs Gsp txlrp wzlotyrF ty ’%?-44(- ZqGpy GstF tyGpECEpGlGtzy tF xlop plFtpE
tq Gsp wzlotyrF lEp FClEFp- Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp mEtp7A otFnHFF Fzxp xpGszoF
qzE opEtItyr CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF JtGs FClEFp wzlotyrF- jspA lEp lww mlFpo
zy wlFFz ’ 0 ( CpylwGtpF-
bp FGlEG JtGs ly Y × C olGl xlGEtK c+ JtGs npyGpEpo nzwHxyF- jsp
CEzCzFpo xpGszoF qznHF zy ptGspE Gsp xlKtxHx!IlEtlynp CEzCpEGA zq CEty!
ntClw nzxCzypyGF+ zE Gsp xtytxHx EpnzyFGEHnGtzy pEEzE- jsp iNzj Lii
CEznpoHEp zq UzwtΓp pG lw- ’=$$“( GlvpF Gsp ËFG lCCEzlns+ mA FzwItyr
(C
xlK I j ’cj c(IW FHmupnG Gz Hˆ0 KIH K ≤ G+ I j I ˆ %, ’%?-[–(
jsp lmFzwHGp!IlwHp nzyFGEltyG pynzHElrpF Fzxp zq Gsp wzlotyrF Gz mp BpEz

lyo spynp I Gz mp FClEFp- QHEGspE FClEFp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lEp qzHyo
ty Gsp Flxp JlA+ mA qzEntyr Gsp vGs nzxCzypyG Gz mp zEGszrzylw Gz Gsp
ËFG v } % nzxCzypyGF- kyqzEGHylGpwA GstF CEzmwpx tF yzG nzyIpK lyo Gsp
nzxCHGlGtzyF lEp otffnHwG-
ezH pG lw- ’=$$[( FGlEG tyFGplo JtGs Gsp EprEpFFtzy#EpnzyFGEHnGtzy CEzC!
pEGA zq fNL+ FtxtwlE Gz Gsp lCCEzlns ty ipnGtzy %?-4-%- pG Kt mp Gsp tGs EzJ
zq c- QzE l Ftyrwp nzxCzypyG+ GsptE FClEFp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG GpnsytDHp
FzwIpF
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θWI
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pGF pKlxtyp GstF qzExHwlGtzy ty xzEp opGltw-

| Tq mzGs λ lyo λ0 lEp BpEz lyo Y / C+ tG tF plFA Gz FszJ GslG I ˆ θ
lyo tF Gsp wlErpFG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG otEpnGtzy-
| bspy C ≫ Y Gsp FzwHGtzy tF yzG ypnpFFlEtwA HytDHp HywpFF λ / $- QzE
lyA λ / $ lyo λ0 ˆ $ Gsp FzwHGtzy qzE I tF CEzCzEGtzylw Gz Gsp wlErpFG
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG otEpnGtzy-
| jsp Fpnzyo CpylwGA zy I pynzHElrpF FClEFpypFF zq Gsp wzlotyrF-
%?-4 fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF+ NHEIpF lyo iHEqlnpF 44%
blwvtyr iCppo
apEmlw QwHpynA
fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF iClEFp fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF
QTRIFD 03W20W iGlyolEo lyo FClEFp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF qEzx l FGHoA zq

Gsp nzECHF nlwwzFHx IlEtlGtzy- jsp FslCp IlEtlGtzyF nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz Ftryt6nlyG
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF ’Epo nHEIpF( lEp zIpEwlto zy Gsp xply NN FslCp ’mwlnv
nHEIpF(-
QzE xHwGtCwp nzxCzypyGF+ Gsp FClEFp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF CEznpoHEpF

xtytxtBpF
Y
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tˆ0 vˆ0 vˆ0
FHmupnG Gz Θj Θ ˆ TV - SpEp a tF l C × V xlGEtK JtGs nzwHxyF Iv lyo Θ

tF lwFz C × V-
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plns ClElxpGpE JtGs Gsp zGspE ClElxpGpE ¨Kpofi - XtytxtBlGtzy zIpE a JtGs
Θ ¨Kpo tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz V pwlFGtn ypG CEzmwpxF ’ipnGtzy %]-?( lyo nly mp
ozyp pffntpyGwA- Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ xtytxtBlGtzy zIpE Θ JtGs a ¨Kpo tF l
IpEFtzy zq Gsp fEznEHFGpF CEzmwpx ’%?-4[(+ lyo tF FzwIpo mA l FtxCwp iaO
nlwnHwlGtzy ’PKpEntFp %?-%=(- jspFp FGpCF lEp lwGpEylGpo HyGtw nzyIpErpynp-
QtrHEp %?-“% FszJF ly pKlxCwp zq FClEFp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lylwAFtF
HFtyr ’%?-fi%(+ Glvpy qEzx iu6 zFGElyo pG lw- ’=$$fi(- SpEp Gsp FslCp zq Gsp
xto!FlrtGGlw nEzFF!FpnGtzy zq Gsp nzECHF nlwwzFHx ’NN( tF EpwlGpo Gz IlEtzHF
nwtytnlw ClElxpGpEF ty l FGHoA tyIzwItyr 4[– pwopEwA CpEFzyF] - Ty GstF pKlx!
6 dzGp GslG Gsp HFHlw CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG nEtGpEtzy) qzE pKlxCwp ’%3-4/() tF yzG uztyGwA
nzyIpK ty Gsp ClElxpGpEF ptGspE- dpIpEGspwpFF) Gsp FzwHGtzy tF Jpww opÿpo lyo ly pffntpyG
lwrzEtGsx tF lIltwlmwp-
7 bp Gslyv hlFxHF lEFpy lyo VlEw iu6 zFGElyo qzE FHrrpFGtyr GstF lCCwtnlGtzy) lyo
FHCCwAtyr HF JtGs Gsp CzFGFnEtCG ¨rHEpF EpCEzoHnpo spEp-
44= %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
QTRIFD 03W21W Ly pKlxCwp zq l xto,FlrrtGlw mElty Fwtnp+ JtGs Gsp nzECHF nzw,
wzFHx lyyzGlGpo JtGs wlyoxlEvF-
Cwp fNL tF lCCwtpo Gz FslCp olGl+ lyo tF l CzCHwlE Gzzw ty xzECszxpGEtnF-

QzE FHns lCCwtnlGtzyF+ l yHxmpE zq wlyoxlEvF lEp topyGt¨po lwzyr Gsp ntE!
nHxqpEpynp zq Gsp FslCp: ly pKlxCwp tF rtIpy ty QtrHEp %?-“=- jspFp lEp
lwtrypo mA fEznEHFGpF lylwAFtF Gz lwwzJ qzE EzGlGtzyF+ lyo ty GstF nlFp Fnlw!
tyr lF Jpww ’Fpp ipnGtzy %?-4-%(- jsp qplGHEpF HFpo qzE fNL lEp Gsp FpDHpynp
zq nzzEotylGp CltEF qzE plns wlyoxlEv+ HyClnvpo tyGz l Ftyrwp IpnGzE-
Ty GstF lylwAFtF+ mzGs FGlyolEo lyo FClEFp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF JpEp
nzxCHGpo+ lyo nzxCzypyGF GslG JpEp Ftryt¨nlyGwA lFFzntlGpo JtGs IlEtzHF
nwtytnlw ClElxpGpEF JpEp topyGt¨po- Ty Gsp ¨rHEp+ Gsp FslCp IlEtlGtzyF nzE!
EpFCzyotyr Gz Ftryt¨nlyG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF ’Epo nHEIpF( lEp zIpEwlto zy
Gsp xply NN FslCp ’mwlnv nHEIpF(- zJ Jlwvtyr FCppo EpwlGpF Gz NNF GslG
lEp GstyypE ’otFCwlAtyr lGEzCsA( ty EprtzyF nzyypnGtyr Gsp xzGzE nzyGEzw
lyo nzrytGtIp npyGpEF zq Gsp mElty- zJ IpEmlw 7HpynA EpwlGpF Gz NNF GslG
lEp GstyypE ty EprtzyF nzyypnGtyr lHotGzEA#ItFHlw#nzrytGtIp npyGpEF- jsp
FClEFp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF CEznpoHEp rtIpF l xzEp ClEFtxzytzHF+ lyo Cz!
GpyGtlwwA xzEp tyqzExlGtIp CtnGHEp zq Gsp txCzEGlyG otΓpEpynpF-
%?-[ Yzy,yprlGtIp clGEtK QlnGzEtBlGtzy 44“
0?-” dzy,yprlGtIp clGEtK QlnGzEtBlGtzy

Yzy!yprlGtIp xlGEtK qlnGzEtBlGtzy ’ pp lyo ipHyr+ %–––( tF l EpnpyG lw!
GpEylGtIp lCCEzlns Gz CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lylwAFtF+ ty Jstns Gsp olGl
lyo nzxCzypyGF lEp lFFHxpo Gz mp yzy!yprlGtIp- TG tF HFpqHw qzE xzopwtyr
yzy!yprlGtIp olGl FHns lF txlrpF-
jsp Y × C olGl xlGEtK c tF lCCEzKtxlGpo mA
c ≈ bS ’%?-fi=(
JspEp b tF Y × E lyo S tF E × C+ E ≤ xlK’YW C(- bp lFFHxp GslG
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jsp xlGEtnpF b lyo S lEp qzHyo mA xlKtxtBtyr
C
Y ∑
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jstF tF Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo qEzx l xzopw ty Jstns KtH slF l fztFFzy otF!
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jsp qzwwzJtyr lwGpEylGtyr lwrzEtGsx ’ pp lyo ipHyr+ =$$%( nzyIpErpF Gz
l wznlw xlKtxHx zq ’bW S(9
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Hˆ0 svH KtH .’bS(tH
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(Y ’%?-fi?(
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’bW S( ’PKpEntFp %?-=“( lyo tF lwFz EpwlGpo Gz Gsp tGpElGtIp!CEzCzEGtzylw!
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pDHtIlwpyG Gz v!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr( lyo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lylwAFtF ’fNL(-
jsp GsEpp wplEytyr xpGszoF JpEp lCCwtpo Gz l olGlmlFp zq Y ˆ =W ?=– ql!
ntlw txlrpF+ plns nzyFtFGtyr zq %– × %– CtKpwF+ EpFHwGtyr ty l =W ?=– × “]%
xlGEtK c- LF FszJy ty Gsp fi × fi lEElA zq xzyGlrpF ’plns l %– × %– txlrp(+
plns xpGszo slF wplEypo l FpG zq E ˆ ?– mlFtF txlrpF- fzFtGtIp IlwHpF lEp
twwHFGElGpo JtGs mwlnv CtKpwF lyo yprlGtIp IlwHpF JtGs Epo CtKpwF- L ClE!
GtnHwlE tyFGlynp zq l qlnp+ FszJy lG GzC EtrsG+ tF lCCEzKtxlGpo mA l wtyplE
FHCpECzFtGtzy zq mlFtF txlrpF- jsp nzpffntpyGF zq Gsp wtyplE FHCpECzFtGtzy
lEp FszJy ypKG Gz plns xzyGlrp+ ty l fi × fi lEElA0$ + lyo Gsp EpFHwGtyr FH!
CpECzFtGtzyF lEp FszJy Gz Gsp EtrsG zq Gsp pDHlwtGA Ftry- jsp lHGszEF CztyG
8 bp Gslyv ipmlFGtly ipHyr qzE CEzItotyr GstF txlrp-

0+ jspFpfi × fi lEElyrpxpyGF lwwzJ qzE l nzxClnG otFCwlA) lyo slIp yz FGEHnGHElw
Ftryt¨nlynp-
44? %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
zHG GslG Hywtvp ag lyo fNL+ YXQ wplEyF Gz EpCEpFpyG qlnpF JtGs l FpG zq
mlFtF txlrpF EpFpxmwtyr ClEGF zq qlnpF-
Ozyzsz lyo iGzoopy ’=$$?( CztyG zHG l CzGpyGtlwwA FpEtzHF CEzmwpx JtGs
yzy!yprlGtIp xlGEtK qlnGzEtBlGtzy- PIpy ty FtGHlGtzyF JspEp c ˆ bS szwoF
pKlnGwA+ Gsp opnzxCzFtGtzy xlA yzG mp HytDHp- QtrHEp %?-“? twwHFGElGpF Gsp
CEzmwpx- jsp olGl CztyGF wtp ty C ˆ = otxpyFtzyF+ lyo GspEp tF ˜zCpy FClnp˙
mpGJppy Gsp olGl lyo Gsp nzzEotylGp lKpF- bp nly nszzFp Gsp mlFtF IpnGzEF
s0 lyo s= lyAJspEp ty GstF zCpy FClnp+ lyo EpCEpFpyG plns olGl CztyG
pKlnGwA JtGs l yzyyprlGtIp wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy zq GspFp IpnGzEF- jstF yzy!
HytDHpypFF xplyF GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy qzHyo mA Gsp lmzIp lwrzEtGsx opCpyoF
zy Gsp FGlEGtyr IlwHpF+ lyo tG JzHwo Fppx Gz slxCpE Gsp tyGpECEpGlmtwtGA zq
Gsp qlnGzEtBlGtzy- OpFCtGp GstF tyGpECEpGlGtzylw oElJmlnv+ Gsp yzy!yprlGtIp
xlGEtK qlnGzEtBlGtzy lyo tGF lCCwtnlGtzyF slF lGGElnGpo l wzG zq tyGpEpFG-
0?-”-0 LEnspGAClw LylwAFtF

jstF xpGszo+ oHp Gz NHGwpE lyo MEptxly ’%––?(+ lCCEzKtxlGpF olGl CztyGF
mA CEzGzGACpF GslG lEp GspxFpwIpF wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF zq olGl CztyGF- Ty
GstF FpyFp tG slF l FtxtwlE 7lIzE Gz V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr- SzJpIpE+ ElGspE
Gsly lCCEzKtxlGtyr plns olGl CztyG mA l Ftyrwp yplEmA CEzGzGACp+ lEnspGA!
Clw lylwAFtF lCCEzKtxlGpF plns olGl CztyG mA l nzyIpK nzxmtylGtzy zq l
nzwwpnGtzy zq CEzGzGACpF- jsp HFp zq l nzyIpK nzxmtylGtzy qzEnpF Gsp CEzGz!
GACpF Gz wtp zy Gsp nzyIpK sHww zq Gsp olGl nwzHo- Ty GstF FpyFp+ Gsp CEzGzGACpF
lEp ˜CHEp+˙+ zE ˜lEnspGAClw-˙
LF ty ’%?-fi=(+ Gsp Y × C olGl xlGEtK c tF xzopwpo lF
c ≈ bS ’%?-fi4(
(E
JspEp b tF Y × E lyo S tF E × C- bp lFFHxp GslG Jtv ≥ $ lyo vˆ0 Jtv ˆ
% {t- Spynp Gsp Y olGl CztyGF ’EzJF zq c( ty C!otxpyFtzylw FClnp lEp
EpCEpFpyGpo mA nzyIpK nzxmtylGtzyF zq Gsp E lEnspGACpF ’EzJF zq S(- bp
lwFz lFFHxp GslG
S ˆ Mc ’%?-fi[(
(Y
JspEp M tF E × Y JtGs mvt ≥ $ lyo tˆ0 mvt ˆ % {v- jsHF Gsp lEnspGACpF
GspxFpwIpF lEp nzyIpK nzxmtylGtzyF zq Gsp olGl CztyGF- kFtyr mzGs ’%?-fi4(
lyo ’%?-fi[( Jp xtytxtBp
U’bW M( ˆ KKc } bSKK=

ˆ KKc } bMcKK= ’%?-fifi(
zIpE Gsp JptrsGF b lyo M- jstF qHynGtzy tF xtytxtBpo ty ly lwGpEylGtyr

qlFstzy+ JtGs plns FpClElGp xtytxtBlGtzy tyIzwItyr l nzyIpK zCGtxtBlGtzy-
jsp zIpElww CEzmwpx tF yzG nzyIpK szJpIpE+ lyo Fz Gsp lwrzEtGsx nzyIpErpF
Gz l wznlw xtytxHx zq Gsp nEtGpEtzy-
%?-[ Yzy,yprlGtIp clGEtK QlnGzEtBlGtzy 444
Original
NMF
µ =
VQ
µ =
PCA
µ =
QTRIFD 03W22W Yzy,yprlGtIp xlGEtK qlnGzEtBlGtzy ’YcQ(+ IpnGzE DHlyGtBlGtzy

’ag+ pDHtIlwpyG Gz v,xplyF nwHFGpEtyr( lyo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lylwAFtF ’fNL(
lCCwtpo Gz l olGlmlFp zq qlntlw txlrpF- OpGltwF lEp rtIpy ty Gsp GpKG- kywtvp ag
lyo fNL+ YcQ wplEyF Gz EpCEpFpyG qlnpF JtGs l FpG zq mlFtF txlrpF EpFpxmwtyr
ClEGF zq qlnpF-
44[ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
s0
s=
QTRIFD 03W23W Yzy,HytDHpypFF zq Gsp yzy,yprlGtIp xlGEtK qlnGzEtBlGtzy-

jspEp lEp %% olGl CztyGF ty GJz otxpyFtzyF- LyA nsztnp zq Gsp mlFtF IpnGzEF s0
lyo s= ty Gsp zCpy FClnp mpGJppy Gsp nzzEotylGp lKpF lyo olGl+ rtIpF ly pKlnG
EpnzyFGEHnGtzy zq Gsp olGl-
QtrHEp %?-“4 FszJF ly pKlxCwp JtGs FtxHwlGpo olGl ty GJz otxpyFtzyF-

jsp GzC Clypw otFCwlAF Gsp EpFHwGF zq lEnspGAClw lylwAFtF+ Jstwp Gsp mzGGzx
Clypw FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF qEzx V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr- Ty zEopE Gz mpFG Epnzy!
FGEHnG Gsp olGl qEzx nzyIpK nzxmtylGtzyF zq Gsp CEzGzGACpF+ tG ClAF Gz
wznlGp Gsp CEzGzGACpF zy Gsp nzyIpK sHww zq Gsp olGl- jstF tF Fppy ty Gsp GzC
ClypwF zq QtrHEp %?-“4 lyo tF Gsp nlFp ty rpypElw+ lF CEzIpy mA NHGwpE lyo
MEptxly ’%––?(- V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr+ FszJy ty Gsp mzGGzx ClypwF+ nszzFpF
CEzGzGACpF ty Gsp xtoowp zq Gsp olGl nwzHo-
bp nly Gstyv zq V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr lF l FCpntlw nlFp zq Gsp lEnspGAClw
xzopw+ ty Jstns plns EzJ zq b slF l Ftyrwp zyp lyo Gsp EpFG zq Gsp pyGEtpF
lEp BpEz-
YzGtnp lwFz GslG Gsp lEnspGAClw xzopw ’%?-fi4( slF Gsp Flxp rpypElw qzEx
lF Gsp yzy!yprlGtIp xlGEtK qlnGzEtBlGtzy xzopw ’%?-fi=(- SzJpIpE+ Gsp GJz
xzopwF lEp lCCwtpo ty otΓpEpyG FpGGtyrF+ lyo slIp FzxpJslG otΓpEpyG rzlwF-
Yzy!yprlGtIp xlGEtK qlnGzEtBlGtzy ltxF Gz lCCEzKtxlGp Gsp nzwHxyF zq Gsp
olGl xlGEtK c+ lyo Gsp xlty zHGCHG zq tyGpEpFG lEp Gsp nzwHxyF zq b
EpCEpFpyGtyr Gsp CEtxlEA yzy!yprlGtIp nzxCzypyGF ty Gsp olGl- LEnspGAClw
lylwAFtF qznHFpF tyFGplo zy Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtzy zq Gsp EzJF zq c HFtyr Gsp
EzJF zq S+ Jstns EpCEpFpyG Gsp lEnspGAClw olGl CztyGF- Yzy!yprlGtIp xlGEtK
qlnGzEtBlGtzy lwFz lFFHxpF GslG E ≤ C- btGs E ˆ C+ Jp nly rpG ly pKlnG
EpnzyFGEHnGtzy FtxCwA nszzFtyr b Gz mp Gsp olGl c JtGs nzwHxyF Fnlwpo
Fz GslG GspA FHx Gz %- Ty nzyGElFG+ lEnspGAClw lylwAFtF EpDHtEpF E ≤ Y +
mHG lwwzJF E / C- Ty QtrHEp %?-“4+ qzE pKlxCwp+ C ˆ =W Y ˆ 4$ Jstwp
E ˆ =W ? zE ]- jsp lootGtzylw nzyFGEltyG ’%?-fi[( txCwtpF GslG Gsp lEnspGAClw
lCCEzKtxlGtzy Jtww yzG mp CpEqpnG+ pIpy tq E / C-
QtrHEp %?-“[ FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF zq lEnspGAClw lylwAFtF lCCwtpo Gz Gsp
olGlmlFp zq “&F otFCwlApo ty QtrHEp %?-==- jsp GsEpp EzJF ty QtrHEp %?-“[
lEp Gsp EpFHwGtyr lEnspGACpF qEzx GsEpp EHyF+ FCpntqAtyr GJz+ GsEpp lyo qzHE
%?-fi TyopCpyopyG NzxCzypyG LylwAFtFlyo PKCwzElGzEA fEzupnGtzy fHEFHtG 44fi
2 Prototypes 4 Prototypes 8 Prototypes
QTRIFD 03W24W LEnspGAClw lylwAFtF ’GzC ClypwF( lyo V,xplyF nwHFGpEtyr ’mzG,
Gzx ClypwF( lCCwtpo Gz 4/ olGl CztyGF oElJy qEzx l mtIlEtlGp RlHFFtly otFGEtmH,
Gtzy- jsp nzwzEpo CztyGF FszJ Gsp CzFtGtzyF zq Gsp CEzGzGACpF ty plns nlFp-
lEnspGACpF+ EpFCpnGtIpwA- LF pKCpnGpo+ Gsp lwrzEtGsx slF CEzoHnpo pKGEpxp

“&F mzGs ty FtBp lyo FslCp-
0?-fi TyopCpyopyG NzxCzypyG LylwAFtF lyo

PKCwzElGzEA fEzupnGtzy fHEFHtG
XHwGtIlEtlGp olGl lEp zqGpy ItpJpo lF xHwGtCwp tyotEpnG xplFHEpxpyGF lEtF!
tyr qEzx ly HyopEwAtyr FzHEnp+ Jstns GACtnlwwA nlyyzG mp otEpnGwA xplFHEpo-
PKlxCwpF tynwHop Gsp qzwwzJtyr9
| PoHnlGtzylw lyo CFAnszwzrtnlw GpFGF HFp Gsp lyFJpEF Gz DHpFGtzyyltEpF

Gz xplFHEp Gsp HyopEwAtyr tyGpwwtrpynp lyo zGspE xpyGlw lmtwtGtpF zq
FHmupnGF-
| PPR mElty FnlyF xplFHEp Gsp ypHEzylw lnGtItGA ty IlEtzHF ClEGF zq

Gsp mElty tyotEpnGwA Itl pwpnGEzxlrypGtn FtrylwF EpnzEopo lG FpyFzEF
Cwlnpo lG IlEtzHF CzFtGtzyF zy Gsp splo-
| jsp GElotyr CEtnpF zq FGznvF nslyrp nzyFGlyGwA zIpE Gtxp+ lyo Ep7pnG
IlEtzHF HyxplFHEpo qlnGzEF FHns lF xlEvpG nzyöpynp+ pKGpEylw ty!
44] %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
QTRIFD 03W25W LEnspGAClw lylwAFtF lCCwtpo Gz Gsp olGlmlFp zq otrtGtBpo “WF- jsp
EzJF ty Gsp 6rHEp FszJ Gsp EpFHwGtyr lEnspGACpF qEzx GsEpp EHyF+ FCpntqAtyr GJz+
GsEpp lyo qzHE lEnspGACpF+ EpFCpnGtIpwA-
7HpynpF+ lyo zGspE oEtItyr qzEnpF GslG xlA mp slEo Gz topyGtqA zE

xplFHEp-
QlnGzE lylwAFtF tF l nwlFFtnlw GpnsytDHp opIpwzCpo ty Gsp FGlGtFGtnlw wtGpE!

lGHEp GslG ltxF Gz topyGtqA GspFp wlGpyG FzHEnpF- QlnGzE lylwAFtF xzopwF
lEp GACtnlwwA Jpo Gz RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzyF+ Jstns slF Gz Fzxp pKGpyG sty!
opEpo GsptE HFpqHwypFF- XzEp EpnpyGwA+ tyopCpyopyG nzxCzypyG lylwAFtF slF
pxpErpo lF l FGEzyr nzxCpGtGzE Gz qlnGzE lylwAFtF+ lyo lF Jp Jtww Fpp+ EpwtpF
zy Gsp yzy!RlHFFtly ylGHEp zq Gsp HyopEwAtyr FzHEnpF qzE tGF FHnnpFF-
0?-fi-0 lGpyG alEtlmwpF lyo QlnGzE LylwAFtF

j
jsp FtyrHwlE!IlwHp opnzxCzFtGtzy
√ c ˆ kOa ’%?-4?( slF
√ l wlGpyG IlEtlmwp
EpCEpFpyGlGtzy- bEtGtyr i ˆ Y k lyo L ˆ Oaj . Y + Jp slIp c ˆ
j
iLj + lyo spynp plns zq Gsp nzwHxyF zq c tF l wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy zq Gsp

nzwHxyF zq i- YzJ Ftynp k tF zEGszrzylw+ lyo lFFHxtyr lF mpqzEp GslG Gsp
nzwHxyF zq c ’lyo spynp k( plns slIp xply BpEz+ GstF txCwtpF GslG Gsp
nzwHxyF zq i slIp BpEz xply+ lEp HynzEEpwlGpo lyo slIp HytG IlEtlynp- Ty
GpExF zq Elyozx IlEtlmwpF+ Jp nly tyGpECEpG Gsp iaO+ zE Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG lylwAFtF ’fNL( lF ly pFGtxlGp zq l wlGpyG IlEtlmwp
xzopw
%?-fi TyopCpyopyG NzxCzypyG LylwAFtF lyo PKCwzElGzEA fEzupnGtzy fHEFHtG 44–
c0 ˆ l00 i0 ) l0= i= ) ± ± ± ) l0C iC

c= ˆ l=0 i0 ) F== i= ) ± ± ± ) l=C iC
-- -- ’%?-fi](
- -
cC ˆ lC0 i0 ) FC= i= ) ± ± ± ) lCC iC W
zE FtxCwA c ˆ Li- jsp nzEEpwlGpo cH lEp plns EpCEpFpyGpo lF l wtyplE
pKClyFtzy ty Gsp HynzEEpwlGpo+ HytG IlEtlynp IlEtlmwpF iℓ - jstF tF yzG Gzz
FlGtFqlnGzEA+ GszHrs+ mpnlHFp rtIpy lyA zEGszrzylw C × C xlGEtK h+ Jp nly
JEtGp
c ˆ Li
ˆ Lhj hi
ˆ L{ i { W ’%?-fi–(
lyo NzI’i { ( ˆ h NzI’i( hj ˆ T- Spynp GspEp lEp xlyA FHns opnzx!

CzFtGtzyF+ lyo tG tF GspEpqzEp txCzFFtmwp Gz topyGtqA lyA ClEGtnHwlE wlGpyG
IlEtlmwpF lF HytDHp HyopEwAtyr FzHEnpF- jsp iaO opnzxCzFtGtzy ozpF slIp
Gsp CEzCpEGA GslG lyA Elyv D ı C GEHynlGpo opnzxCzFtGtzy lCCEzKtxlGpF
c ty ly zCGtxlw JlA-
jsp nwlFFtnlw qlnGzE lylwAFtF xzopw+ opIpwzCpo CEtxlEtwA mA EpFplEnspEF ty
CFAnszxpGEtnF+ lwwpItlGpF GspFp CEzmwpxF Gz Fzxp pKGpyG: Fpp+ qzE pKlxCwp+
XlEotl pG lw- ’%–fi–(- btGs D ı C+ l qlnGzE lylwAFtF xzopw slF Gsp qzEx
c0 ˆ l00 i0 ) ± ± ± ) l0D iD ) ε0
c= ˆ l=0 i0 ) ± ± ± ) l=D iD ) ε=
-- -- ’%?-]$(
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zE c ˆ Li ) ε- SpEp i tF l IpnGzE zq D ı C HyopEwAtyr wlGpyG IlEtlmwpF zE

qlnGzEF+ L tF l C × D xlGEtK zq qlnGzE wzlotyrF+ lyo Gsp εH lEp HynzEEpwlGpo
BpEz!xply otFGHEmlynpF- jsp topl tF GslG Gsp wlGpyG IlEtlmwpF iℓ lEp nzx!
xzy FzHEnpF zq IlEtlGtzy lxzyrFG Gsp cH + lyo lnnzHyG qzE GsptE nzEEpwlGtzy
FGEHnGHEp+ Jstwp Gsp HynzEEpwlGpo εH lEp HytDHp Gz plns cH lyo Ctnv HC Gsp
Epxltytyr HylnnzHyGpo IlEtlGtzy- jACtnlwwA Gsp iH lyo Gsp εH lEp xzopwpo
lF RlHFFtly Elyozx IlEtlmwpF+ lyo Gsp xzopw tF ¨G mA xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo-
jsp ClElxpGpEF lww EpFtop ty Gsp nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK
: ˆ LLj ) Oε W ’%?-]%(
JspEp Oε ˆ otlr”alE’ε0 (W , , , W alE’εC (fl- jsp iH mptyr RlHFFtly lyo Hy!

nzEEpwlGpo xlvpF Gspx FGlGtFGtnlwwA tyopCpyopyG Elyozx IlEtlmwpF- jsHF l
mlGGpEA zq poHnlGtzylw GpFG FnzEpF JzHwo mp GszHrsG Gz mp oEtIpy mA Gsp
tyopCpyopyG HyopEwAtyr qlnGzEF FHns lF tyGpwwtrpynp+ oEtIp lyo Fz zy- jsp
nzwHxyF zq L lEp EpqpEEpo Gz lF Gsp qlnGzE wzlotyrF+ lyo lEp HFpo Gz ylxp
lyo tyGpECEpG Gsp qlnGzEF-
4[/ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
kyqzEGHylGpwA Gsp topyGt¨lmtwtGA tFFHp ’%?-fi–( EpxltyF+ Ftynp L lyo Lhj

lEp pDHtIlwpyG ty ’%?-]%( qzE lyA D × D zEGszrzylw h- jstF wplIpF l npEGlty
FHmupnGtItGA ty Gsp HFp zq qlnGzE lylwAFtF+ Ftynp Gsp HFpE nly FplEns qzE Ez!
GlGpo IpEFtzyF zq Gsp qlnGzEF GslG lEp xzEp plFtwA tyGpECEpGlmwp- jstF lFCpnG
slF wpqG xlyA lylwAFGF FvpCGtnlw zq qlnGzE lylwAFtF+ lyo xlA lnnzHyG qzE tGF
wlnv zq CzCHwlEtGA ty nzyGpxCzElEA FGlGtFGtnF- LwGszHrs Jp Jtww yzG rz tyGz
opGltwF spEp+ Gsp iaO CwlAF l vpA Ezwp ty Gsp pFGtxlGtzy zq ’%?-]%(- QzE pK!
lxCwp+ tq Gsp alE’εH ( lEp lww lFFHxpo Gz mp pDHlw+ Gsp wplotyr D nzxCzypyGF
zq Gsp iaO topyGtqA Gsp FHmFClnp opGpExtypo mA L-
MpnlHFp zq Gsp FpClElGp otFGHEmlynpF εH qzE plns cH + qlnGzE lylwAFtF nly
mp Fppy Gz mp xzopwtyr Gsp nzEEpwlGtzy FGEHnGHEp zq Gsp cH ElGspE Gsly Gsp
nzIlEtlynp FGEHnGHEp- jstF nly mp plFtwA Fppy mA FGlyolEotBtyr Gsp nzIlEt!
lynp FGEHnGHEp ty ’%?-]%( ’PKpEntFp %?-%?(- jstF tF ly txCzEGlyG otFGtynGtzy
mpGJppy qlnGzE lylwAFtF lyo fNL+ lwGszHrs yzG npyGElw Gz Gsp otFnHFFtzy
spEp- PKpEntFp %?-%4 otFnHFFpF l FtxCwp pKlxCwp JspEp Gsp FzwHGtzyF qEzx
qlnGzE lylwAFtF lyo fNL otΓpE oElxlGtnlwwA mpnlHFp zq GstF otFGtynGtzy-
0?-fi-1 TyopCpyopyG NzxCzypyG LylwAFtF

jsp tyopCpyopyG nzxCzypyG lylwAFtF ’TNL( xzopw slF pKlnGwA Gsp Flxp
qzEx lF ’%?-fi](+ pKnpCG Gsp it lEp lFFHxpo Gz mp FGlGtFGtnlwwA tyopCpy,
opyG ElGspE Gsly HynzEEpwlGpo- TyGHtGtIpwA+ wlnv zq nzEEpwlGtzy opGpExtypF
Gsp Fpnzyo!oprEpp nEzFF!xzxpyGF ’nzIlEtlynpF( zq l xHwGtIlEtlGp otFGEtmH!
Gtzy+ Jstwp ty rpypElw FGlGtFGtnlw tyopCpyopynp opGpExtypF lww zq Gsp nEzFF!
xzxpyGF- jspFp pKGEl xzxpyG nzyotGtzyF lwwzJ HF Gz topyGtqA Gsp pwpxpyGF
zq L HytDHpwA- itynp Gsp xHwGtIlEtlGp RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy tF opGpExtypo
mA tGF Fpnzyo xzxpyGF lwzyp+ tG tF Gsp pKnpCGtzy+ lyo lyA RlHFFtly tyop!
CpyopyG nzxCzypyGF nly mp opGpExtypo zywA HC Gz l EzGlGtzy+ lF mpqzEp-
Spynp topyGt¨lmtwtGA CEzmwpxF ty ’%?-fi]( lyo ’%?-]$( nly mp lIztopo tq Jp
lFFHxp GslG Gsp it lEp tyopCpyopyG lyo yzy,RlHFFtly-
SpEp Jp Jtww otFnHFF Gsp qHww C!nzxCzypyG xzopw lF ty ’%?-fi](+ JspEp Gsp
iℓ lEp tyopCpyopyG JtGs HytG IlEtlynp: TNL IpEFtzyF zq Gsp qlnGzE lylwAFtF
xzopw ’%?-]$( pKtFG lF Jpww- ZHE GEplGxpyG tF mlFpo zy Gsp FHEIpA lEGtnwp
mA SAI6lEtypy lyo Zul ’=$$$(-
bp JtFs Gz EpnzIpE Gsp xtKtyr xlGEtK L ty c ˆ Li- btGszHG wzFF
zq rpypElwtGA+ Jp nly lFFHxp GslG c slF lwEploA mppy JstGpypo Gz slIp
NzI’c( ˆ T: GstF tF GACtnlwwA lnstpIpo Itl Gsp iaO opFnEtmpo lmzIp- jstF
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rH FlGtF¨pF Gsp yzExlwtBlGtzy nzyotGtzyF EpDHtEpo zq l opyFtGA- LFFHxtyr
lF mpqzEp GslG c tF CEp!JstGpypo+ Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo qzE Gsp zmFpEIpo olGl
c ˆ Li tF
C
Y ∑
∑ 2 %
ℓ’LW ·rH •C0 : c( ˆ wzr φH ’ljH Kt ( ) rH ’ljH Kt flW ’%?-–$(
tˆ0 Hˆ0
Jstns Jp JtFs Gz xlKtxtBp FHmupnG Gz Gsp nzyFGEltyGF GslG L tF zEGszrzylw

lyo GslG Gsp rH EpFHwG ty opyFtGtpF ty ’%?-]–(- btGszHG txCzFtyr lyA qHEGspE
EpFGEtnGtzyF zy rH + Gsp xzopw ’%?-–$( tF zIpE!ClElxpGEtBpo+ Fz Jp tyFGplo
xlKtxtBp l EprHwlEtBpo IpEFtzy
C
C Y ∫ ∫ D
∑ % ∑2 3
j j ru WG( ′′′ =
wzr φ’lH Kt ( ) rH ’lH Kt ( } φ’G(p oG } λH ·rH ’G(• ’G(oG ,
Hˆ0
Y tˆ0
’%?-–%(
bp slIp FHmGElnGpo GJz CpylwGA GpExF ’qzE plns u( ty ’%?-–%(+ tyFCtEpo mA
itwIpExly ’%–][+ ipnGtzy 4-?-?(9
B
| jsp ËFG pyqzEnpF Gsp opyFtGA nzyFGEltyG φ’G(pr1u WG( oG ˆ % zy lyA
FzwHGtzy r—H -
| jsp Fpnzyo tF l EzHrsypFF CpylwGA+ Jstns rHlElyGppF GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy
r—H tF l DHlEGtn!FCwtyp JtGs vyzGF lG Gsp zmFpEIpo IlwHpF zq FtH ˆ ljH Kt -
TG nly qHEGspE mp FszJy GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy opyFtGtpF q—H ˆ φpr1u plns slIp
xply BpEz lyo IlEtlynp zyp ’PKpEntFp %?-%](- LF Jp tynEplFp λH + GspFp
FzwHGtzyF lCCEzlns Gsp FGlyolEo RlHFFtly φ-
LwrzEtGsx 03-2 fEzoHnG OpyFtGA TNL LwrzEtGsx9 fEzOpyTN

%- TytGtlwtBp L ’Elyozx RlHFFtly xlGEtK qzwwzJpo mA zEGszrzylwtBlGtzy(-
=- LwGpEylGp HyGtw nzyIpErpynp zq L9
’l( RtIpy L+ zCGtxtBp ’%?-–%( J-E-G- rH ’FpClElGpwA qzE plns u(-

’m( RtIpy rH W u ˆ %W , , , W C+ CpEqzEx zyp FGpC zq l ¨Kpo CztyG lwrz!
EtGsx GzJlEoF ÿotyr Gsp zCGtxlw L-
bp ¨G Gsp qHynGtzyF rH lyo otEpnGtzyF lH mA zCGtxtBtyr ’%?-–%( ty ly

lwGpEylGtyr qlFstzy+ lF opFnEtmpo ty LwrzEtGsx %?-“-
4[] %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
iGpC =’l( lxzHyGF Gz l Fpxt!ClElxpGEtn opyFtGA pFGtxlGtzy+ Jstns nly

mp FzwIpo HFtyr l yzIpw lCCwtnlGtzy zq rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp xzopwF- QzE
nzyIpytpynp Jp pKGElnG zyp zq Gsp C FpClElGp CEzmwpxF+
Y ∫ ∫
% ∑
”wzr φ’Ft ( ) r’Ft (fl } φ’G(p oG } λ ·r ′′′ ’G(•= ’G(oG,
rWG(
’%?-–=(
Y tˆ0
LwGszHrs Gsp Fpnzyo tyGprElw ty ’%?-–=( wploF Gz l FxzzGstyr FCwtyp+ Gsp

ËFG tyGprElw tF CEzmwpxlGtn+ lyo EpDHtEpF ly lCCEzKtxlGtzy- bp nzyFGEHnG
l ÿp rEto zq IlwHpF F{ℓ ty tynEpxpyGF ∆ nzIpEtyr Gsp zmFpEIpo IlwHpF Ft +
lyo nzHyG Gsp yHxmpE zq Ft ty Gsp EpFHwGtyr mtyF9
.Ft ∈ ’F{ℓ } ∆.=W F{ℓ ) ∆.=(

Aℓ{ ˆ , ’%?-–“(
Y
jACtnlwwA Jp Ctnv Gz mp %$$$+ Jstns tF xzEp Gsly lopDHlGp- bp nly Gspy
lCCEzKtxlGp ’%?-–=( mA
∑7 8 ∫
∗ =
At{ ”wzr’φ’F{ℓ (( ) r’F{ℓ (fl } ∆φ’F{ℓ (prWFℓ ( } λ r ′′′ ’F(oF, ’%?-–?(
ℓˆ0
jstF wlFG pKCEpFFtzy nly mp Fppy Gz mp CEzCzEGtzylw Gz l CpylwtBpo fztFFzy

wzr!wtvpwtszzo JtGs EpFCzyFp Aℓ{ .∆ lyo CpylwGA ClElxpGpE λ.∆+ lyo xply
<’F( ˆ φ’F(prWF( - jstF tF l rpypElwtBpo lootGtIp FCwtyp xzopw ’SlFGtp lyo
jtmFstElyt+ %––$: PqEzy lyo jtmFstElyt+ %––[(+ JtGs ly z;FpG GpEx wzr φ’F(+
lyo nly mp ¨G HFtyr l YpJGzy lwrzEtGsx ty Z’ ( zCpElGtzyF- LwGszHrs
l DHlEGtn FCwtyp tF nlwwpo qzE+ Jp ÿo ty CElnGtnp GslG l nHmtn FCwtyp tF
lopDHlGp- bp slIp C GHytyr ClElxpGpEF λH Gz FpG: ty CElnGtnp Jp xlvp
Gspx lww Gsp Flxp+ lyo FCpntqA Gsp lxzHyG zq FxzzGstyr Itl Gsp pΓpnGtIp
oprEppF!zq!qEppozx oq’λ(- ZHE FzqGJlEp HFpF 4oq lF l opqlHwG IlwHp-
iGpC =’m( ty LwrzEtGsx %?-“ EpDHtEpF zCGtxtBtyr ’%?-–=( JtGs EpFCpnG Gz
L+ szwotyr Gsp r—H ¨Kpo- ZywA Gsp ËFG GpExF ty Gsp FHx tyIzwIp L+ lyo
Ftynp L tF zEGszrzylw+ Gsp nzwwpnGtzy zq GpExF tyIzwItyr φ oz yzG opCpyo zy
L ’PKpEntFp %?-%–(- Spynp Jp yppo Gz xlKtxtBp
C Y
% ∑∑
N’L( ˆ r—H ’ljH Kt ( ’%?-–4(
Y Hˆ0 tˆ0
C
∑
ˆ NH ’lH (
Hˆ0
N’L( tF l wzr!wtvpwtszzo ElGtz mpGJppy Gsp ¨GGpo opyFtGA lyo l RlHFFtly+

lyo nly mp Fppy lF ly pFGtxlGp zq yprpyGEzCA ’%?-][(+ JtGs plns r—H l nzy!
GElFG qHynGtzy lF ty ’%?-]fi(- jsp ¨Kpo CztyG HColGp ty FGpC =’m( tF l xzot¨po
YpJGzy FGpC ’PKpEntFp %?-=$(
%?-fi TyopCpyopyG NzxCzypyG LylwAFtF lyo PKCwzElGzEA fEzupnGtzy fHEFHtG 4[–
%- QzE plns u HColGp

5 6
lH ← P c r—H′ ’ljH c( } P”—
rH′′ ’ljH c(fllH W ’%?-–[(
JspEp P EpCEpFpyGF pKCpnGlGtzy J-E-G Gsp FlxCwp Kt - itynp r—H tF l ¨GGpo

DHlEGtn ’zE nHmtn( FCwtyp+ Gsp ËFG lyo Fpnzyo opEtIlGtIpF lEp EplotwA
lIltwlmwp-
=- ZEGszrzylwtBp L HFtyr Gsp FAxxpGEtn FDHlEp!EzzG GElyFqzExlGtzy

0
’LLj (} = L- Tq L ˆ kOaj tF Gsp iaO zq L+ tG tF plFA Gz FszJ GslG
GstF wploF Gz Gsp HColGp L ← kaj -
ZHE fEzOpyTN lwrzEtGsx JzEvF lF Jpww lF glFRTN zy Gsp lEGt¨ntlw Gtxp

FpEtpF olGl zq QtrHEp %?-“fi+ Gsp xtKGHEp zq HytqzExF olGl zq QtrHEp %?-“]+
lyo Gsp otrtG olGl ty QtrHEp %?-“–-
PKlxCwp9 itxHwlGtzyF
a b c
0.50
FastICA
KernelICA
ProdDenICA
d e f
Amari Distance from True A
0.20
g h i
0.10
0.05
j k l
m n o
0.02
0.01
p q r
a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r
Distribution
QTRIFD 03W31W jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF %] otFGEtmHGtzyF HFpo qzE nzxClEtFzyF-
jspFp tynwHop Gsp 2G5+ HytqzEx+ pKCzypyGtlw+ xtKGHEpF zq pKCzypyGtlwF+ FAxxpGEtn
lyo lFAxxpGEtn RlHFFtly xtKGHEpF- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF ’zy Gsp wzr Fnlwp(
Gsp lIpElrp LxlEt xpGEtn qzE plns xpGszo lyo plns otFGEtmHGtzy+ mlFpo zy “/
FtxHwlGtzyF ty Th= qzE plns otFGEtmHGtzy-
QtrHEp %?-?= FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF zq l FtxHwlGtzy nzxClEtyr fEzOpyTN Gz

glFRTN + lyo lyzGspE Fpxt!ClElxpGEtn nzxCpGtGzE VpEypwTN ’Mlns lyo
UzEoly+ =$$=(- jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp %] otFGEtmHGtzyF HFpo lF l mlFtF
zq nzxClEtFzy- QzE plns otFGEtmHGtzy+ Jp rpypElGpo l CltE zq tyopCpyopyG
nzxCzypyGF ’Y ˆ %$=?(+ lyo l Elyozx xtKtyr xlGEtK ty Th= JtGs nzyotGtzy
yHxmpE mpGJppy % lyo =- bp HFpo zHE h txCwpxpyGlGtzyF zq glFRTN + HFtyr
Gsp yprpyGEzCA nEtGpEtzy ’%?-]fi(+ lyo fEzOpyTN - QzE VpEypwTN Jp HFpo
4fi/ %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
Gsp lHGszEF nLi LM nzop-0= itynp Gsp FplEns nEtGpEtl lEp yzynzyIpK+ Jp
HFpo Ïp Elyozx FGlEGF qzE plns xpGszo- Plns zq Gsp lwrzEtGsxF opwtIpEF
ly zEGszrzylw xtKtyr xlGEtK L ’Gsp olGl JpEp CEp,JstGpypo(+ Jstns tF
lIltwlmwp qzE nzxClEtFzy JtGs Gsp rpypElGtyr zEGszrzylwtBpo xtKtyr xlGEtK
L$ - bp HFpo Gsp LxlEt xpGEtn ’Mlns lyo UzEoly+ =$$=( lF l xplFHEp zq
Gsp nwzFpypFF zq Gsp GJz qElxpF9
C
( (C 1 C 9 (C )
% ∑ Hˆ0 KEtH K % ∑ tˆ0 KEtH K
o’L$ W L( ˆ }% ) } % W ’%?-–fi(
=C tˆ0 xlKH KEtH K =C Hˆ0 xlKt KEtH K
JspEp EtH ˆ ’Lz L}0 (tH - jsp EtrsG Clypw ty QtrHEp %?-?= nzxClEpF Gsp
lIpElrpF ’zy Gsp wzr Fnlwp( zq Gsp LxlEt xpGEtn mpGJppy Gsp GEHGs lyo Gsp
pFGtxlGpo xtKtyr xlGEtnpF- fEzOpyTNL tF nzxCpGtGtIp JtGs QlFGTNL lyo
VpEypwTNL ty lww FtGHlGtzyF+ lyo ozxtylGpF xzFG zq Gsp xtKGHEp FtxHwlGtzyF-
0?-7 cHwGtotxpyFtzylw inlwtyr

MzGs Fpwq!zErlytBtyr xlCF lyo CEtyntClw nHEIpF lyo FHEqlnpF xlC olGl
CztyGF ty ThC Gz l wzJpE!otxpyFtzylw xlytqzwo- XHwGtotxpyFtzylw Fnlwtyr
’XOi( slF l FtxtwlE rzlw+ mHG lCCEzlnspF Gsp CEzmwpx ty l FzxpJslG otq!
qpEpyG JlA-
bp FGlEG JtGs zmFpEIlGtzyF K0 W K= W , , , W KY ∈ ThC + lyo wpG otH mp Gsp otF!
Glynp mpGJppy zmFpEIlGtzyF t lyo u- ZqGpy Jp nszzFp PHnwtoply otFGlynp
otH ˆ KKKt } KH KK+ mHG zGspE otFGlynpF xlA mp HFpo- QHEGspE+ ty Fzxp lC!
CwtnlGtzyF Jp xlA yzG pIpy slIp lIltwlmwp Gsp olGl CztyGF Kt + mHG zywA
slIp Fzxp otFFtxtwlEtGA xplFHEp otH ’Fpp ipnGtzy %?-“-%$(- QzE pKlxCwp+ ty
l Jtyp GlFGtyr pKCpEtxpyG+ otH xtrsG mp l xplFHEp zq szJ otΓpEpyG l FHm!
upnG uHorpo JtypF t lyo u+ lyo Gsp FHmupnG CEzItopF FHns l xplFHEp qzE lww
CltEF zq JtypF tW u- XOi EpDHtEpF zywA Gsp otFFtxtwlEtGtpF otH + ty nzyGElFG Gz
Gsp iZX lyo CEtyntClw nHEIpF lyo FHEqlnpF Jstns yppo Gsp olGl CztyGF Kt -
XHwGtotxpyFtzylw Fnlwtyr FppvF IlwHpF B0 W B= W , , , W BY ∈ Thv Gz xtytxtBp
Gsp Fz!nlwwpo FGEpFF qHynGtzy0˜
∑
iX ’B0 W B= W , , , W BY ( ˆ ’ott′ } KKBt } Bt′ KK(= , ’%?-–](
t′ˆt′
jstF tF vyzJy lF wplFG FDHlEpF zE VEHFvlw8ispCslEo Fnlwtyr- jsp topl tF

Gz ÿo l wzJpE!otxpyFtzylw EpCEpFpyGlGtzy zq Gsp olGl GslG CEpFpEIpF Gsp
CltEJtFp otFGlynpF lF Jpww lF CzFFtmwp- YzGtnp GslG Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtzy tF
0= gElyntFMlns vtyowA FHCCwtpo GstF nzop) lyo spwCpo HF FpG HC Gsp FtxHwlGtzyF-
02 izxp lHGszEF opÿp FGEpFF lF Gsp FDHlEp!EzzG zq iX : Ftynp tG ozpF yzG l;pnG Gsp
zCGtxtBlGtzy) Jp wplIp tG FDHlEpo Gz xlvp nzxClEtFzyF JtGs zGspE nEtGpEtl FtxCwpE-
%?-] cHwGtotxpyFtzylw inlwtyr 4fi%
ty GpExF zq Gsp otFGlynpF ElGspE Gsly FDHlEpo otFGlynpF ’Jstns EpFHwGF ty

FwtrsGwA xpFFtpE lwrpmEl(- L rElotpyG opFnpyG lwrzEtGsx tF HFpo Gz xtytxtBp
iX -
L IlEtlGtzy zy wplFG FDHlEpF Fnlwtyr tF Gsp Fz!nlwwpo ilxxzy xlCCtyr
Jstns xtytxtBpF
∑ ’ott′ } KKBt } Bt′ KK(=
iix ’B0 W B= W , , , W BY ( ˆ , ’%?-––(
′
ott′
t′ˆt
SpEp xzEp pxCslFtF tF CHG zy CEpFpEItyr FxlwwpE CltEJtFp otFGlynpF-

Ty nwlFFtnlw Fnlwtyr+ Jp tyFGplo FGlEG JtGs FtxtwlEtGtpF Ftt′ 9 zqGpy Jp HFp
Gsp npyGpEpo tyypE CEzoHnG Ftt′ ˆ 〈Kt } K 3W Kt′ } K3〉- jsp CEzmwpx Gspy tF Gz
xtytxtBp
∑
iN ’B0 W B= W , , , W BY ( ˆ ’Ftt′ } 〈Bt } B3W Bt′ } B3〉(= ’%?-%$$(
tWt′
zIpE B0 W B= W , , , W BY ∈ Thv - jstF tF lGGElnGtIp mpnlHFp GspEp tF ly pKCwtntG

FzwHGtzy ty GpExF zq ptrpyIpnGzEF9 Fpp PKpEntFp %?-%%- Tq Jp slIp otFGlynpF
ElGspE Gsly tyypE!CEzoHnGF+ Jp nly nzyIpEG Gspx Gz npyGpEpo tyypE!CEzoHnGF
tq Gsp otFGlynpF lEp PHnwtoply:03 Fpp ’%]-“%( zy Clrp [fi% ty NslCGpE %]-
Tq Gsp FtxtwlEtGtpF lEp ty qlnG npyGpEpo tyypE!CEzoHnGF+ nwlFFtnlw Fnlwtyr tF
pKlnGwA pDHtIlwpyG Gz CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF+ ly tyspEpyGwA wtyplE otxpyFtzy!
EpoHnGtzy GpnsytDHp- NwlFFtnlw Fnlwtyr tF yzG pDHtIlwpyG Gz wplFG FDHlEpF
Fnlwtyr: Gsp wzFF qHynGtzyF lEp otΓpEpyG+ lyo Gsp xlCCtyr nly mp yzywtyplE-
plFG FDHlEpF lyo nwlFFtnlw Fnlwtyr lEp EpqpEEpo Gz lF xpGEtn Fnlwtyr xpGs!
zoF+ ty Gsp FpyFp GslG Gsp lnGHlw otFFtxtwlEtGtpF zE FtxtwlEtGtpF lEp lCCEzK!
txlGpo- ispCslEo8VEHFvlw yzyxpGEtn Fnlwtyr pΓpnGtIpwA HFpF zywA ElyvF-
YzyxpGEtn Fnlwtyr FppvF Gz xtytxtBp Gsp FGEpFF qHynGtzy
( 2 3=
t′ˆt′KKBt } Bt′ KK } θ’ott′ (
iML ’B0 W B= W , , , W BY ( ˆ ( =
’%?-%$%(
t′ˆt′ KKBt } Bt′ KK
zIpE Gsp Bt lyo ly lEmtGElEA tynEplFtyr qHynGtzy θ- btGs θ ¨Kpo+ Jp xty!

txtBp zIpE Bt mA rElotpyG opFnpyG- btGs Gsp Bt ¨Kpo+ Gsp xpGszo zq tFz!
Gzytn EprEpFFtzy tF HFpo Gz ÿo Gsp mpFG xzyzGzytn lCCEzKtxlGtzy θ’ott′ (
Gz KKBt } Bt′ KK- jspFp FGpCF lEp tGpElGpo HyGtw Gsp FzwHGtzyF FGlmtwtBp-
tvp Gsp Fpwq!zErlytBtyr xlC lyo CEtyntClw FHEqlnpF+ xHwGtotxpyFtzylw
Fnlwtyr EpCEpFpyGF strs!otxpyFtzylw olGl ty l wzJ!otxpyFtzylw nzzEotylGp
FAFGpx- fEtyntClw FHEqlnpF lyo iZXF rz l FGpC qHEGspE+ lyo lCCEzKtxlGp
Gsp zEtrtylw olGl mA l wzJ!otxpyFtzylw xlytqzwo+ ClElxpGEtBpo ty Gsp wzJ
otxpyFtzylw nzzEotylGp FAFGpx- Ty l CEtyntClw FHEqlnp lyo iZX+ CztyGF
03 Ly Y × Y otFGlynp xlGEtK tF PHnwtoply tq Gsp pyGEtpF EpCEpFpyG CltEJtFp PHnwtoply
otFGlynpF mpGJppy Y CztyGF ty Fzxp otxpyFtzylw FClnp-

4fi= %?- kyFHCpEItFpo plEytyr
• •
•
1.0
• • • ••
• • • •• • •• • ••
• •
•
0.5
• •
Second MDS Coordinate
•• •
• •
• • •
• • ••• • •
0.0
• •
• • • •••• • • •
• •• • •
•• • •• • •
•• •
•• •
-0.5
• •
••• •••
• • •
• • • •
• •
-1.0
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

First MDS Coordinate
QTRIFD 03W32W QtEFG GJz nzzEotylGpF qzE slwq,FCspEp olGl+ qEzx nwlFFtnlw xHwGt,
otxpyFtzylw Fnlwtyr-
nwzFp GzrpGspE ty Gsp zEtrtylw qplGHEp FClnp FszHwo xlC nwzFp GzrpGspE zy
Gsp xlytqzwo+ mHG CztyGF qlE lClEG ty qplGHEp FClnp xtrsG lwFz xlC nwzFp
GzrpGspE- jstF tF wpFF wtvpwA ty xHwGtotxpyFtzylw Fnlwtyr Ftynp tG pKCwtntGwA
GEtpF Gz CEpFpEIp lww CltEJtFp otFGlynpF-
QtrHEp %?-?“ FszJF Gsp ËFG GJz XOi nzzEotylGpF qEzx nwlFFtnlw Fnlwtyr
qzE Gsp slwq!FCspEp pKlxCwp- jspEp tF nwplE FpClElGtzy zq Gsp nwHFGpEF+ lyo
Gsp GtrsGpE ylGHEp zq Gsp Epo nwHFGpE tF lCClEpyG-
0?-– dzywtyplE OtxpyFtzy hpoHnGtzy lyo znlw

cHwGtotxpyFtzylw inlwtyr
ipIpElw xpGszoF slIp mppy EpnpyGwA CEzCzFpo qzE yzywtyplE otxpyFtzy Ep!
oHnGtzy+ FtxtwlE ty FCtEtG Gz CEtyntClw FHEqlnpF- jsp topl tF GslG Gsp olGl wtp
nwzFp Gz ly tyGEtyFtnlwwA wzJ!otxpyFtzylw yzywtyplE xlytqzwo pxmpoopo ty l
strs!otxpyFtzylw FClnp- jspFp xpGszoF nly mp GszHrsG zq lF ˜7lGGpytyr˙
Gsp xlytqzwo+ lyo spynp EpoHntyr Gsp olGl Gz l FpG zq wzJ!otxpyFtzylw nz!
zEotylGpF GslG EpCEpFpyG GsptE EpwlGtIp CzFtGtzyF ty Gsp xlytqzwo- jspA lEp
HFpqHw qzE CEzmwpxF JspEp Ftrylw!Gz!yztFp ElGtz tF IpEA strs ’p-r-+ CsAFtnlw
FAFGpxF(+ lyo lEp CEzmlmwA yzG lF HFpqHw qzE zmFpEIlGtzylw olGl JtGs wzJpE
Ftrylw!Gz!yztFp ElGtzF-
jsp mlFtn rzlw tF twwHFGElGpo ty Gsp wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp %?-??- jsp olGl
wtp yplE l ClElmzwl JtGs FHmFGlyGtlw nHEIlGHEp- NwlFFtnlw XOi ozpF yzG CEp!
%?-– YzywtyplE OtxpyFtzy hpoHnGtzy lyo znlw cHwGtotxpyFtzylw inlwtyr 4fi“
Classical MDS Local MDS
0
−5
−5
K=
K=
−10
−10
−15
−15
−5 0 5 −5 0 5
K0 K0
QTRIFD 03W33W jsp zElyrp CztyGF FszJ olGl wAtyr zy l ClElmzwl+ Jstwp Gsp mwHp
CztyGF FszJF xHwGtotxpyFtzylw Fnlwtyr EpCEpFpyGlGtzyF ty zyp otxpyFtzy- NwlFFtnlw
xHwGtotxpyFtzylw Fnlwtyr ’wpqG Clypw( ozpF yzG CEpFpEIp Gsp zEopEtyr zq Gsp CztyGF
lwzyr Gsp nHEIp+ mpnlHFp tG uHorpF CztyGF zy zCCzFtGp pyoF zq Gsp nHEIp Gz mp nwzFp
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Page 1
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QTRIFD 03W36W PKlxCwp zq l Fxlww ypGJzEv-
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NwlFFt¨nlGtzy9 pG N—m ’K( mp Gsp nwlFF CEpotnGtzy zq Gsp mGs Elyozx!qzEpFG

GEpp- jspy N—EDM ’K( ˆ xluzEtGA IzGp ·N—m ’K(•M
0 -
FGEHnGHEpF ty Gsp olGl+ lyo tq rEzJy FHffntpyGwA oppC+ slIp EpwlGtIpwA wzJ
mtlF- itynp GEppF lEp yzGzEtzHFwA yztFA+ GspA mpyp¨G rEplGwA qEzx Gsp lIpElr!
tyr- XzEpzIpE+ Ftynp plns GEpp rpypElGpo ty mlrrtyr tF topyGtnlwwA otFGEtmHGpo
’t-o-(+ Gsp pKCpnGlGtzy zq ly lIpElrp zq M FHns GEppF tF Gsp Flxp lF Gsp pK!
CpnGlGtzy zq lyA zyp zq Gspx- jstF xplyF Gsp mtlF zq mlrrpo GEppF tF Gsp
Flxp lF GslG zq Gsp tyotItoHlw GEppF+ lyo Gsp zywA szCp zq txCEzIpxpyG tF
GsEzHrs IlEtlynp EpoHnGtzy- jstF tF ty nzyGElFG Gz mzzFGtyr+ JspEp Gsp GEppF
lEp rEzJy ty ly lolCGtIp JlA Gz EpxzIp mtlF+ lyo spynp lEp yzG t-o-
Ly lIpElrp zq M t-t-o- Elyozx IlEtlmwpF+ plns JtGs IlEtlynp σ = + slF IlEt!
lynp M0 σ = - Tq Gsp IlEtlmwpF lEp FtxCwA t-o- ’topyGtnlwwA otFGEtmHGpo+ mHG yzG
ypnpFFlEtwA tyopCpyopyG( JtGs CzFtGtIp CltEJtFp nzEEpwlGtzy ρ+ Gsp IlEtlynp
zq Gsp lIpElrp tF ’PKpEntFp %4-%(
%}ρ =
ρσ = ) σ , ’%4-%(
M
LF M tynEplFpF+ Gsp Fpnzyo GpEx otFlCCplEF+ mHG Gsp ËFG EpxltyF+ lyo
spynp Gsp FtBp zq Gsp nzEEpwlGtzy zq CltEF zq mlrrpo GEppF wtxtGF Gsp mpyp¨GF
zq lIpElrtyr- jsp topl ty Elyozx qzEpFGF ’LwrzEtGsx %4-%( tF Gz txCEzIp
Gsp IlEtlynp EpoHnGtzy zq mlrrtyr mA EpoHntyr Gsp nzEEpwlGtzy mpGJppy Gsp
GEppF+ JtGszHG tynEplFtyr Gsp IlEtlynp Gzz xHns- jstF tF lnstpIpo ty Gsp
GEpp!rEzJtyr CEznpFF GsEzHrs Elyozx FpwpnGtzy zq Gsp tyCHG IlEtlmwpF-
iCpnt¨nlwwA+ Jspy rEzJtyr l GEpp zy l mzzGFGElCCpo olGlFpG9
MpqzEp plns FCwtG) FpwpnG x ≤ C zq Gsp tyCHG IlEtlmwpF lG Elyozx
lF nlyotolGpF qzE FCwtGGtyr-
%4-= Op6ytGtzy zq hlyozx QzEpFGF 4]–
√
jACtnlwwA IlwHpF qzE x lEp C zE pIpy lF wzJ lF %-
LqGpE M FHns GEppF ·j ’K: Θm (•M
0 lEp rEzJy+ Gsp Elyozx qzEpFG ’EprEpFFtzy(
CEpotnGzE tF
M
% ∑
q—EDM ’K( ˆ j ’K: Θm (, ’%4-=(
M
mˆ0
LF ty ipnGtzy %$-– ’Clrp “4[(+ Θm nslElnGpEtBpF Gsp mGs Elyozx qzEpFG GEpp ty
GpExF zq FCwtG IlEtlmwpF+ nHGCztyGF lG plns yzop+ lyo GpExtylw!yzop IlwHpF-
TyGHtGtIpwA+ EpoHntyr x Jtww EpoHnp Gsp nzEEpwlGtzy mpGJppy lyA CltE zq GEppF
ty Gsp pyFpxmwp+ lyo spynp mA ’%4-%( EpoHnp Gsp IlEtlynp zq Gsp lIpElrp-
Spam Data
0.070
Bagging
Random Forest
Gradient Boosting (5 Node)
0.065
0.060
Test Error
0.055
0.050
0.045
0.040
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Number of Trees
QTRIFD 04W0W Mlrrtyr+ Elyozx qzEpFG+ lyo rElotpyG mzzFGtyr+ lCCwtpo Gz Gsp
FClx olGl- QzE mzzFGtyr+ 4,yzop GEppF JpEp HFpo+ lyo Gsp yHxmpE zq GEppF JpEp
nszFpy mA %/,qzwo nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy ’=4// GEppF(- Plns 2FGpC5 ty Gsp 6rHEp nzEEp,
FCzyoF Gz l nslyrp ty l Ftyrwp xtFnwlFFt6nlGtzy ’ty l GpFG FpG zq %4“[(-
YzG lww pFGtxlGzEF nly mp txCEzIpo mA Fslvtyr HC Gsp olGl wtvp GstF-
TG FppxF GslG strswA yzywtyplE pFGtxlGzEF+ FHns lF GEppF+ mpyp¨G Gsp xzFG-
QzE mzzGFGElCCpo GEppF+ ρ tF GACtnlwwA Fxlww ’$,$4 zE wzJpE tF GACtnlw: Fpp
QtrHEp %4-–(+ Jstwp σ = tF yzG xHns wlErpE Gsly Gsp IlEtlynp qzE Gsp zEtrtylw
GEpp- Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ mlrrtyr ozpF yzG nslyrp wtyplE pFGtxlGpF+ FHns
lF Gsp FlxCwp xply ’spynp tGF IlEtlynp ptGspE(: Gsp CltEJtFp nzEEpwlGtzy
mpGJppy mzzGFGElCCpo xplyF tF lmzHG 4$0 ’PKpEntFp %4-?(-
4–/ %4- hlyozx QzEpFGF
hlyozx qzEpFGF lEp CzCHwlE- pz MEptxly&F0 nzwwlmzElGzE Lopwp NHGwpE

xltyGltyF l Elyozx qzEpFG JpmFtGp= JspEp Gsp FzqGJlEp tF qEppwA lIltwlmwp+
JtGs xzEp Gsly “$$$ ozJywzloF EpCzEGpo mA =$$=- jspEp tF l ElyozKgzEpFR
Clnvlrp ty h+ xltyGltypo mA LyoA tlJ+ lIltwlmwp qEzx Gsp Nh d JpmFtGp-
jsp lHGszEF xlvp rElyo nwltxF lmzHG Gsp FHnnpFF zq Elyozx qzEpFGF9
˜xzFG lnnHElGp+˙ ˜xzFG tyGpECEpGlmwp+˙ lyo Gsp wtvp- Ty zHE pKCpEtpynp Ely!
ozx qzEpFGF oz EpxlEvlmwA Jpww+ JtGs IpEA wtGGwp GHytyr EpDHtEpo- L Ely!
ozx qzEpFG nwlFFt¨pE lnstpIpF ?,]]0 xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE zy Gsp FClx GpFG
olGl+ Jstns nzxClEpF Jpww JtGs lww zGspE xpGszoF+ lyo tF yzG Ftryt¨nlyGwA
JzEFp Gsly rElotpyG mzzFGtyr lG ?,40- Mlrrtyr lnstpIpF 4,?0 Jstns tF
Ftryt¨nlyGwA JzEFp Gsly ptGspE ’HFtyr Gsp XnYpxlE GpFG zHGwtypo ty PK!
pEntFp %$-[(+ Fz tG lCCplEF zy GstF pKlxCwp Gsp lootGtzylw ElyozxtBlGtzy
spwCF-
Nested Spheres
0.15
0.10
0.05
Bayes Error
0.00
RF−1 RF−3 Bagging GBM−1 GBM−6
QTRIFD 04W1W jsp EpFHwGF zq 4/ FtxHwlGtzyF qEzx Gsp 2ypFGpo FCspEpF5 xzopw ty
Th0+ - jsp MlApF opntFtzy mzHyolEA tF Gsp FHEqlnp zq l FCspEp ’lootGtIp(- 2hQ,“5
EpqpEF Gz l Elyozx qzEpFG JtGs x ˆ “+ lyo 2RMc,”5 l rElotpyG mzzFGpo xzopw
JtGs tyGpElnGtzy zEopE FtK‘ FtxtwlEwA qzE 2hQ,%5 lyo 2RMc,%-5 jsp GEltytyr FpGF
JpEp zq FtBp =///+ lyo Gsp GpFG FpGF %/W ///-
QtrHEp %4-% FszJF Gsp GpFG!pEEzE CEzrEpFFtzy zy =4$$ GEppF qzE Gsp GsEpp
xpGszoF- Ty GstF nlFp GspEp tF Fzxp pItopynp GslG rElotpyG mzzFGtyr slF
FGlEGpo Gz zIpE¨G+ lwGszHrs %$!qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy nszFp lww =4$$ GEppF-
0 ilowA) pz MEptxly otpo ty UHwA) =//4-

= shhC9..vvv-alhs-SFS-poS.·lopwp.OzEpFhF.
%4-= Op6ytGtzy zq hlyozx QzEpFGF 4–%
California Housing Data
RF m=2
0.44
RF m=6
GBM depth=4
GBM depth=6
0.42
Test Average Absolute Error
0.40
0.38
0.36
0.34
0.32
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Number of Trees
QTRIFD 04W2W hlyozx qzEpFGF nzxClEpo Gz rElotpyG mzzFGtyr zy Gsp NlwtqzEytl

szHFtyr olGl- jsp nHEIpF EpCEpFpyG xply lmFzwHGp pEEzE zy Gsp GpFG olGl lF l
qHynGtzy zq Gsp yHxmpE zq GEppF ty Gsp xzopwF- jJz Elyozx qzEpFGF lEp FszJy+ JtGs
x ˆ = lyo x ˆ [- jsp GJz rElotpyG mzzFGpo xzopwF HFp l FsEtyvlrp ClElxpGpE
ν ˆ /,/4 ty ’%/-3%(+ lyo slIp tyGpElnGtzy opCGsF zq ? lyo [- jsp mzzFGpo xzopwF
zHGCpEqzEx Elyozx qzEpFGF-
QtrHEp %4-= FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF zq l FtxHwlGtzy˜ nzxClEtyr Elyozx qzEpFGF

Gz rElotpyG mzzFGtyr zy Gsp ypFGpo FCspEpF CEzmwpx ”PDHlGtzy ’%$-=( ty
NslCGpE %$fl- MzzFGtyr plFtwA zHGCpEqzExF Elyozx qzEpFGF spEp- YzGtnp GslG
FxlwwpE x tF mpGGpE spEp+ lwGszHrs ClEG zq Gsp EplFzy nzHwo mp GslG Gsp GEHp
opntFtzy mzHyolEA tF lootGtIp-
QtrHEp %4-“ nzxClEpF Elyozx qzEpFGF Gz mzzFGtyr ’JtGs FsEtyvlrp( ty l
EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx+ HFtyr Gsp NlwtqzEytl szHFtyr olGl ’ipnGtzy %$-%?-%(-
jJz FGEzyr qplGHEpF GslG pxpErp lEp
| hlyozx qzEpFGF FGlmtwtBp lG lmzHG =$$ GEppF+ Jstwp lG %$$$ GEppF mzzFG!
tyr nzyGtyHpF Gz txCEzIp- MzzFGtyr tF FwzJpo ozJy mA Gsp FsEtyvlrp+
lF Jpww lF Gsp qlnG GslG Gsp GEppF lEp xHns FxlwwpE-
| MzzFGtyr zHGCpEqzExF Elyozx qzEpFGF spEp- LG %$$$ GpExF+ Gsp JplvpE

mzzFGtyr xzopw ’RMX opCGs ?( slF l FxlwwpE pEEzE Gsly Gsp FGEzyrpE
2 OpGltwF9 jsp Elyozx qzEpFGF JpEp ¨G HFtyr Gsp h Clnvlrp ElyozagzEpFh 1-4!$$)
JtGs 4// GEppF- jsp rElotpyG mzzFGtyr xzopwF JpEp ¨G HFtyr h Clnvlrp rma $-4) JtGs
FsEtyvlrp ClElxpGpE FpG Gz /-/4) lyo =/// GEppF-
4–= %4- hlyozx QzEpFGF
0.075
OOB Error
Test Error
0.065
0.055
0.045
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Number of Trees
QTRIFD 04W3W BBa pEEzE nzxCHGpo zy Gsp FClx GEltytyr olGl+ nzxClEpo Gz Gsp
GpFG pEEzE nzxCHGpo zy Gsp GpFG FpG-
Elyozx qzEpFG ’hQ x ˆ [(: l btwnzKzy GpFG zy Gsp xply otΓpEpynpF

ty lmFzwHGp pEEzEF slF l C!IlwHp zq $,$$fi- QzE wlErpE x Gsp Elyozx
qzEpFGF CpEqzExpo yz mpGGpE-
04-“ OpGltwF zq hlyozx QzEpFGF

bp slIp rwzFFpo zIpE Gsp otFGtynGtzy mpGJppy Elyozx qzEpFGF qzE nwlFFt¨nl!
Gtzy IpEFHF EprEpFFtzy- bspy HFpo qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ l Elyozx qzEpFG zmGltyF
l nwlFF IzGp qEzx plns GEpp+ lyo Gspy nwlFFt¨pF HFtyr xluzEtGA IzGp ’Fpp ipn!
Gtzy ]-fi zy mlrrtyr qzE l FtxtwlE otFnHFFtzy(- bspy HFpo qzE EprEpFFtzy+ Gsp
CEpotnGtzyF qEzx plns GEpp lG l GlErpG CztyG K lEp FtxCwA lIpElrpo+ lF ty
’%4-=(- Ty lootGtzy+ Gsp tyIpyGzEF xlvp Gsp qzwwzJtyr EpnzxxpyolGtzyF9
√
| QzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ Gsp opqlHwG IlwHp qzE x tF ⌊ C⌋ lyo Gsp xtytxHx
yzop FtBp tF zyp-
| QzE EprEpFFtzy+ Gsp opqlHwG IlwHp qzE x tF ⌊C.“⌋ lyo Gsp xtytxHx
yzop FtBp tF Ïp-
Ty CElnGtnp Gsp mpFG IlwHpF qzE GspFp ClElxpGpEF Jtww opCpyo zy Gsp CEzmwpx+
lyo GspA FszHwo mp GEplGpo lF GHytyr ClElxpGpEF- Ty QtrHEp %4-“ Gsp x ˆ [
CpEqzExF xHns mpGGpE Gsly Gsp opqlHwG IlwHp ⌊].“⌋ ˆ =-
04-“-0 ZHG zq Mlr ilxCwpF

Ly txCzEGlyG qplGHEp zq Elyozx qzEpFGF tF tGF HFp zq zHG,zq,mlr ’BBa( Flx!
CwpF9
%4-“ OpGltwF zq hlyozx QzEpFGF 4–“
QzE plns zmFpEIlGtzy Bt ˆ ’Kt W At () nzyFGEHnG tGF Elyozx qzEpFG

CEpotnGzE mA lIpElrtyr zywA GszFp GEppF nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz mzzG,
FGElC FlxCwpF ty Jstns Bt oto yzG lCCplE-
Ly BBa pEEzE pFGtxlGp tF lwxzFG topyGtnlw Gz GslG zmGltypo mA Y !qzwo nEzFF!

IlwtolGtzy: Fpp PKpEntFp %4-=- Spynp Hywtvp xlyA zGspE yzywtyplE pFGtxlGzEF+
Elyozx qzEpFGF nly mp ¨G ty zyp FpDHpynp+ JtGs nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy mptyr CpE!
qzExpo lwzyr Gsp JlA- Zynp Gsp BBa pEEzE FGlmtwtBpF+ Gsp GEltytyr nly mp
GpExtylGpo-
QtrHEp %4-? FszJF Gsp BBa xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE qzE Gsp FClx olGl+ nzx!
ClEpo Gz Gsp GpFG pEEzE- LwGszHrs =4$$ GEppF lEp lIpElrpo spEp+ tG lCCplEF
qEzx Gsp CwzG GslG lmzHG =$$ JzHwo mp FHffntpyG-
04-“-1 alEtlmwp TxCzEGlynp

alEtlmwp txCzEGlynp CwzGF nly mp nzyFGEHnGpo qzE Elyozx qzEpFGF ty pKlnGwA
Gsp Flxp JlA lF GspA JpEp qzE rElotpyG!mzzFGpo xzopwF ’ipnGtzy %$-%“(-
LG plns FCwtG ty plns GEpp+ Gsp txCEzIpxpyG ty Gsp FCwtG!nEtGpEtzy tF Gsp
txCzEGlynp xplFHEp lGGEtmHGpo Gz Gsp FCwtGGtyr IlEtlmwp+ lyo tF lnnHxHwlGpo
zIpE lww Gsp GEppF ty Gsp qzEpFG FpClElGpwA qzE plns IlEtlmwp- jsp wpqG CwzG
zq QtrHEp %4-4 FszJF Gsp IlEtlmwp txCzEGlynpF nzxCHGpo ty GstF JlA qzE
Gsp FClx olGl: nzxClEp JtGs Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr QtrHEp %$-[ zy Clrp “4? qzE
rElotpyG mzzFGtyr- MzzFGtyr tryzEpF Fzxp IlEtlmwpF nzxCwpGpwA+ Jstwp Gsp
Elyozx qzEpFG ozpF yzG- jsp nlyotolGp FCwtG!IlEtlmwp FpwpnGtzy tynEplFpF
Gsp nslynp GslG lyA Ftyrwp IlEtlmwp rpGF tynwHopo ty l Elyozx qzEpFG+ Jstwp
yz FHns FpwpnGtzy znnHEF JtGs mzzFGtyr-
hlyozx qzEpFGF lwFz HFp Gsp BBa FlxCwpF Gz nzyFGEHnG l otΓpEpyG IlEtlmwp,
txCzEGlynp xplFHEp+ lCClEpyGwA Gz xplFHEp Gsp CEpotnGtzy FGEpyrGs zq plns
IlEtlmwp- bspy Gsp mGs GEpp tF rEzJy+ Gsp BBa FlxCwpF lEp ClFFpo ozJy
Gsp GEpp+ lyo Gsp CEpotnGtzy lnnHElnA tF EpnzEopo- jspy Gsp IlwHpF qzE Gsp
uGs IlEtlmwp lEp ElyozxwA CpExHGpo ty Gsp BBa FlxCwpF+ lyo Gsp lnnHElnA
tF lrlty nzxCHGpo- jsp opnEplFp ty lnnHElnA lF l EpFHwG zq GstF CpExHGtyr
tF lIpElrpo zIpE lww GEppF+ lyo tF HFpo lF l xplFHEp zq Gsp txCzEGlynp zq
IlEtlmwp u ty Gsp Elyozx qzEpFG- jspFp lEp pKCEpFFpo lF l CpEnpyG zq Gsp
xlKtxHx ty Gsp EtrsG CwzG ty QtrHEp %4-4- LwGszHrs Gsp ElyvtyrF zq Gsp
GJz xpGszoF lEp FtxtwlE+ Gsp txCzEGlynpF ty Gsp EtrsG CwzG lEp xzEp Hyt!
qzEx zIpE Gsp IlEtlmwpF- jsp ElyozxtBlGtzy pΓpnGtIpwA IztoF Gsp pΓpnG zq
l IlEtlmwp+ xHns wtvp FpGGtyr l nzpffntpyG Gz BpEz ty l wtyplE xzopw ’PKpE!
ntFp %4-fi(- jstF ozpF yzG xplFHEp Gsp pΓpnG zy CEpotnGtzy JpEp GstF IlEtlmwp
yzG lIltwlmwp+ mpnlHFp tq Gsp xzopw JlF Ep¨GGpo JtGszHG Gsp IlEtlmwp+ zGspE
IlEtlmwpF nzHwo mp HFpo lF FHEEzrlGpF-
4–? %4- hlyozx QzEpFGF
Gini Randomization
table table
parts parts
cs 3d
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415 cs
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conference 415
project #
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lab data
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0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
Variable Importance Variable Importance
QTRIFD 04W4W alEtlmwp txCzEGlynp CwzGF qzE l nwlFFt6nlGtzy Elyozx qzEpFG

rEzJy zy Gsp FClx olGl- jsp wpqG CwzG mlFpF Gsp txCzEGlynp zy Gsp Rtyt FCwtG,
Gtyr tyopK+ lF ty rElotpyG mzzFGtyr- jsp ElyvtyrF nzxClEp Jpww JtGs Gsp ElyvtyrF
CEzoHnpo mA rElotpyG mzzFGtyr ’QtrHEp %/-” zy Clrp “43(- jsp EtrsG CwzG HFpF BBa
ElyozxtBlGtzy Gz nzxCHGp IlEtlmwp txCzEGlynpF+ lyo GpyoF Gz FCEplo Gsp txCzE,
GlynpF xzEp HytqzExwA-
%4-“ OpGltwF zq hlyozx QzEpFGF 4–4
Proximity Plot Random Forest Classifier

4
6
5
2
3
etaCAgtBA 1
4 3
1
y=
2
5
etaCAgtBA b y0
QTRIFD 04W5W ’ pqG(9 fEzKtxtGA CwzG qzE l Elyozx qzEpFG nwlFFt6pE rEzJy Gz
Gsp xtKGHEp olGl- ’htrsG(9 OpntFtzy mzHyolEA lyo GEltytyr olGl qzE Elyozx qzEpFG
zy xtKGHEp olGl- itK CztyGF slIp mppy topyGt6po ty plns CwzG-
04-“-“ fEzKtxtGA fwzGF

Zyp zq Gsp loIpEGtFpo zHGCHGF zq l Elyozx qzEpFG tF l CEzKtxtGA CwzG- Qtr!
HEp %4-[ FszJF l CEzKtxtGA CwzG qzE Gsp xtKGHEp olGl opÿpo ty ipnGtzy =-“-“
ty NslCGpE =- Ty rEzJtyr l Elyozx qzEpFG+ ly Y × Y CEzKtxtGA xlGEtK tF
lnnHxHwlGpo qzE Gsp GEltytyr olGl- QzE pIpEA GEpp+ lyA CltE zq BBa zmFpE!
IlGtzyF FslEtyr l GpExtylw yzop slF GsptE CEzKtxtGA tynEplFpo mA zyp- jstF
CEzKtxtGA xlGEtK tF Gspy EpCEpFpyGpo ty GJz otxpyFtzyF HFtyr xHwGtotxpy!
Ftzylw Fnlwtyr ’ipnGtzy %?-](- jsp topl tF GslG pIpy GszHrs Gsp olGl xlA mp
strs!otxpyFtzylw+ tyIzwItyr xtKpo IlEtlmwpF+ pGn-+ Gsp CEzKtxtGA CwzG rtIpF
ly tyotnlGtzy zq Jstns zmFpEIlGtzyF lEp pΓpnGtIpwA nwzFp GzrpGspE ty Gsp pApF
zq Gsp Elyozx qzEpFG nwlFFt¨pE-
fEzKtxtGA CwzGF qzE Elyozx qzEpFGF zqGpy wzzv IpEA FtxtwlE+ tEEpFCpnGtIp zq
Gsp olGl+ Jstns nlFGF ozHmG zy GsptE HGtwtGA- jspA Gpyo Gz slIp l FGlE FslCp+
zyp lEx CpE nwlFF+ Jstns tF xzEp CEzyzHynpo Gsp mpGGpE Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
CpEqzExlynp-
itynp Gsp xtKGHEp olGl lEp GJz!otxpyFtzylw+ Jp nly xlC CztyGF qEzx Gsp
CEzKtxtGA CwzG Gz Gsp zEtrtylw nzzEotylGpF+ lyo rpG l mpGGpE HyopEFGlyotyr zq
JslG GspA EpCEpFpyG- TG FppxF GslG CztyGF ty CHEp EprtzyF nwlFF!JtFp xlC Gz
Gsp pKGEpxtGtpF zq Gsp FGlE+ Jstwp CztyGF yplEpE Gsp opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF xlC
yplEpE Gsp npyGpE- jstF tF yzG FHECEtFtyr Jspy Jp nzyFtopE Gsp nzyFGEHnGtzy
zq Gsp CEzKtxtGA xlGEtnpF- YptrsmzEtyr CztyGF ty CHEp EprtzyF Jtww zqGpy
pyo HC FslEtyr l mHnvpG+ Ftynp Jspy l GpExtylw yzop tF CHEp+ tG tF yz wzyrpE
4–[ %4- hlyozx QzEpFGF
FCwtG mA l Elyozx qzEpFG GEpp!rEzJtyr lwrzEtGsx- Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ CltEF

zq CztyGF GslG lEp nwzFp mHG mpwzyr Gz otΓpEpyG nwlFFpF Jtww FzxpGtxpF FslEp
l GpExtylw yzop+ mHG yzG lwJlAF-
04-“-? hlyozx QzEpFGF lyo ZIpE6GGtyr

bspy Gsp yHxmpE zq IlEtlmwpF tF wlErp+ mHG Gsp qElnGtzy zq EpwpIlyG IlEtlmwpF
Fxlww+ Elyozx qzEpFGF lEp wtvpwA Gz CpEqzEx CzzEwA JtGs Fxlww x- LG plns
FCwtG Gsp nslynp nly mp Fxlww GslG Gsp EpwpIlyG IlEtlmwpF Jtww mp FpwpnGpo-
QtrHEp %4-fi FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF zq l FtxHwlGtzy GslG FHCCzEGF GstF nwltx- Op!
GltwF lEp rtIpy ty Gsp ¨rHEp nlCGtzy lyo PKpEntFp %4-“- LG Gsp GzC zq plns
CltE Jp Fpp Gsp sACpE!rpzxpGEtn CEzmlmtwtGA GslG l EpwpIlyG IlEtlmwp Jtww mp
FpwpnGpo lG lyA FCwtG mA l Elyozx qzEpFG GEpp ’ty GstF FtxHwlGtzy+ Gsp EpwpIlyG
IlEtlmwpF lEp lww pDHlw ty FGlGHEp(- LF GstF CEzmlmtwtGA rpGF Fxlww+ Gsp rlC
mpGJppy mzzFGtyr lyo Elyozx qzEpFGF tynEplFpF- bspy Gsp yHxmpE zq Epwp!
IlyG IlEtlmwpF tynEplFpF+ Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq Elyozx qzEpFGF tF FHECEtFtyrwA
EzmHFG Gz ly tynEplFp ty Gsp yHxmpE zq yztFp IlEtlmwpF- QzE pKlxCwp+ JtGs [
EpwpIlyG lyo %$$ yztFp IlEtlmwpF+ Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA
A zq l EpwpIlyG IlEtlmwp mptyr
FpwpnGpo lG lyA FCwtG tF $-?[+ lFFHxtyr x ˆ ’[ ) %$$( ≈ %$- LnnzEotyr Gz
QtrHEp %4-fi+ GstF ozpF yzG sHEG Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq Elyozx qzEpFGF nzxClEpo
JtGs mzzFGtyr- jstF EzmHFGypFF tF wlErpwA oHp Gz Gsp EpwlGtIp tyFpyFtGtItGA zq
xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy nzFG Gz Gsp mtlF lyo IlEtlynp zq Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA pFGtxlGpF
ty plns GEpp- bp nzyFtopE Elyozx qzEpFGF qzE EprEpFFtzy ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy-
LyzGspE nwltx tF GslG Elyozx qzEpFGF ñlyyzG zIpE¨G˙ Gsp olGl- TG tF

npEGltywA GEHp GslG tynEplFtyr M ozpF yzG nlHFp Gsp Elyozx qzEpFG FpDHpynp
Gz zIpE¨G: wtvp mlrrtyr+ Gsp Elyozx qzEpFG pFGtxlGp ’%4-=( lCCEzKtxlGpF Gsp
pKCpnGlGtzy
q—ED ’K( ˆ PΘ j ’K: Θ( ˆ wtx q—’K(M
ED ’%4-“(
M→∞
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otGtzylw zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl- SzJpIpE+ GstF wtxtG nly zIpE¨G Gsp olGl: Gsp
lIpElrp zq qHwwA rEzJy GEppF nly EpFHwG ty Gzz Etns l xzopw+ lyo tynHE Hyypn!
pFFlEA IlEtlynp- iprlw ’=$$?( opxzyFGElGpF Fxlww rltyF ty CpEqzExlynp mA
nzyGEzwwtyr Gsp opCGsF zq Gsp tyotItoHlw GEppF rEzJy ty Elyozx qzEpFGF- ZHE
pKCpEtpynp tF GslG HFtyr qHww!rEzJy GEppF Fpwozx nzFGF xHns+ lyo EpFHwGF ty
zyp wpFF GHytyr ClElxpGpE-
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pKlxCwp- NwlFFt¨pEF lEp wpFF FpyFtGtIp Gz IlEtlynp+ lyo GstF pΓpnG zq zIpE!
¨GGtyr tF Fpwozx Fppy JtGs Elyozx!qzEpFG nwlFFt¨nlGtzy-
%4-? LylwAFtF zq hlyozx QzEpFGF 4–fi
0.52 0.34 0.25 0.19 0.15
0.30
Random Forest
0.25
0.20
0.15 Gradient Boosting
Bayes Error
0.10
(2, 5) (2, 25) (2, 50) (2, 100) (2, 150)

Number of (Relevant, Noise) Variables
QTRIFD 04W6W L nzxClEtFzy zq Elyozx qzEpFGF lyo rElotpyG mzzFGtyr zy CEzm,

wpxF JtGs tynEplFtyr yHxmpEF zq yztFp IlEtlmwpF- Ty plns nlFp Gsp GEHp opntFtzy
mzHyolEA opCpyoF zy GJz IlEtlmwpF+ lyo ly tynEplFtyr yHxmpE zq yztFp IlEtlmwpF
√
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CltE tF Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA GslG zyp zq Gsp EpwpIlyG IlEtlmwpF tF nszFpy lG lyA FCwtG-
jsp EpFHwGF lEp mlFpo zy 4/ FtxHwlGtzyF qzE plns CltE+ JtGs l GEltytyr FlxCwp zq
“//+ lyo l GpFG FlxCwp zq 4//-
04-? LylwAFtF zq hlyozx QzEpFGF

Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp lylwABp Gsp xpnslytFxF lG CwlA JtGs Gsp lootGtzylw
ElyozxtBlGtzy pxCwzApo mA Elyozx qzEpFGF- QzE GstF otFnHFFtzy Jp qznHF
zy EprEpFFtzy lyo FDHlEpo pEEzE wzFF+ Ftynp GstF rpGF lG Gsp xlty CztyGF+
lyo mtlF lyo IlEtlynp lEp xzEp nzxCwpK JtGs $8% wzFF ’Fpp ipnGtzy fi-“-%(-
QHEGspExzEp+ pIpy ty Gsp nlFp zq l nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpx+ Jp nly nzyFtopE
Gsp Elyozx!qzEpFG lIpElrp lF ly pFGtxlGp zq Gsp nwlFF CzFGpEtzE CEzmlmtwtGtpF+
qzE Jstns mtlF lyo IlEtlynp lEp lCCEzCEtlGp opFnEtCGzEF-
04-?-0 alEtlynp lyo Gsp Op,NzEEpwlGtzy P:pnG

jsp wtxtGtyr qzEx ’M → ∞( zq Gsp Elyozx qzEpFG EprEpFFtzy pFGtxlGzE tF
q—ED ’K( ˆ PΘKB j ’K: Θ’e((W ’%4-?(

JspEp Jp slIp xlop pKCwtntG Gsp opCpyopynp zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl e- SpEp
Jp nzyFtopE pFGtxlGtzy lG l Ftyrwp GlErpG CztyG K- QEzx ’%4-%( Jp Fpp GslG
4–] %4- hlyozx QzEpFGF
Shallow Deep
Mean Squared Test Error
1.10
1.05
1.00
50 30 20 10 5
Minimum Node Size
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Ftzy- Ty GstF pKlxCwp+ Gsp GEHp FHEqlnp JlF lootGtIp ty GJz zq Gsp %= IlEtlmwpF+
CwHF lootGtIp HytG,IlEtlynp RlHFFtly yztFp- jEpp opCGs tF nzyGEzwwpo spEp mA Gsp
xtytxHx yzop FtBp‘ Gsp FxlwwpE Gsp xtytxHx yzop FtBp+ Gsp oppCpE Gsp GEppF-
alEq—ED ’K( ˆ ρ’K(σ = ’K(, ’%4-4(
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σ = ’K( ˆ alE j ’K: Θ’e((, ’%4-fi(
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ty l rtIpy Elyozx!qzEpFG pyFpxmwp: GslG tF+ Gstyv zq Gsp ¨GGpo GEppF lF Y !
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wlGtzy tF yzG otEpnGwA EpwpIlyG ty Gsp lIpElrtyr CEznpFF+ lyo Gsp opCpyopynp
zy K ty ρ’K( JlEyF HF zq Gsp otFGtynGtzy- hlGspE+ ρ’K( tF Gsp GspzEpGtnlw
nzEEpwlGtzy mpGJppy l CltE zq Elyozx!qzEpFG GEppF pIlwHlGpo lG K+ tyoHnpo
mA EpCplGpowA xlvtyr GEltytyr FlxCwp oElJF e qEzx Gsp CzCHwlGtzy+ lyo
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nzEEpwlGtzy tyoHnpo mA Gsp FlxCwtyr otFGEtmHGtzy zq e lyo Θ-
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lyo ’%4-fi( tF mzGs
%4-? LylwAFtF zq hlyozx QzEpFGF 4––
| nzyotGtzylw zy e9 oHp Gz Gsp mzzGFGElC FlxCwtyr lyo qplGHEp FlxCwtyr

lG plns FCwtG+ lyo
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Ty qlnG+ Gsp nzyotGtzylw nzIlEtlynp zq l CltE zq GEpp ¨GF lG K tF BpEz+ mpnlHFp
Gsp mzzGFGElC lyo qplGHEp FlxCwtyr tF t-t-o: Fpp PKpEntFp %4-4-
0.08
0.06
Correlation between Trees
0.04
0.02
0.00
1 4 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49
Number of Randomly Selected Splitting Variables m
QTRIFD 04W8W NzEEpwlGtzyF mpGJppy CltEF zq GEppF oElJy mA l Elyozx,qzEpFG

EprEpFFtzy lwrzEtGsx+ lF l qHynGtzy zq x- jsp mzKCwzGF EpCEpFpyG Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF
lG [// ElyozxwA nszFpy CEpotnGtzy CztyGF K-
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4$
% ∑
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l Ftyrwp FpG zq GpFG wznlGtzyF zq FtBp [$$- itynp EprEpFFtzy GEppF lEp yzywtyplE
ty e+ Gsp ClGGpEyF Jp Fpp mpwzJ Jtww otΓpE FzxpJslG opCpyotyr zy Gsp
FGEHnGHEp zq Gsp xzopw-
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nEplFpF lF x opnEplFpF9 CltEF zq GEpp CEpotnGtzyF lG K qzE otΓpEpyG GEltytyr
FpGF e lEp wtvpwA Gz mp wpFF FtxtwlE tq GspA oz yzG HFp Gsp Flxp FCwtGGtyr
IlEtlmwpF-
Ty Gsp wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp %4-%$ Jp nzyFtopE Gsp IlEtlynpF zq Ftyrwp GEpp
CEpotnGzEF+ alEj ’K: Θ’e(( ’lIpElrpo zIpE [$$ CEpotnGtzy CztyGF K oElJy
ElyozxwA qEzx zHE FtxHwlGtzy xzopw(- jstF tF Gsp GzGlw IlEtlynp+ lyo nly mp
[// %4- hlyozx QzEpFGF
opnzxCzFpo tyGz GJz ClEGF HFtyr FGlyolEo nzyotGtzylw IlEtlynp lErHxpyGF

’Fpp PKpEntFp %4-4(9
alEΘWB j ’K: Θ’e(( ˆ alEB PΘKB j ’K: Θ’e(( ) PB alEΘKB j ’K: Θ’e((
jzGlw alEtlynp ˆ alEB q—ED ’K(
JtGsty,e alEtlynp )
’%4-–(
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lynp zq Gsp Elyozx qzEpFG pyFpxmwp ’FszJy ty Gsp EtrsG Clypw(+ Jstns op!
nEplFpF lF x opnEplFpF- jsp IlEtlynp zq Gsp tyotItoHlw GEppF ozpF yzG nslyrp
lCCEpntlmwA zIpE xHns zq Gsp Elyrp zq x+ spynp ty wtrsG zq ’%4-4(+ Gsp IlEt!
lynp zq Gsp pyFpxmwp tF oElxlGtnlwwA wzJpE Gsly GstF GEpp IlEtlynp-
Single Tree Random Forest Ensemble
0.85
0.20
Mean Squared Error and Squared Bias
1.95
0.80
0.15
1.90
Variance
Variance
0.75
0.10
1.85
0.70
0.05
Mean Squared Error
1.80
Within Z Squared Bias

0.65
0.0
Total Variance
0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50
m m
QTRIFD 04W0.W itxHwlGtzy EpFHwGF- jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp lIpElrp IlEtlynp zq
l Ftyrwp Elyozx qzEpFG GEpp+ lF l qHynGtzy zq x- 2btGsty C5 EpqpEF Gz Gsp lIpElrp
JtGsty,FlxCwp nzyGEtmHGtzy Gz Gsp IlEtlynp+ EpFHwGtyr qEzx Gsp mzzGFGElC FlxCwtyr
lyo FCwtG,IlEtlmwp FlxCwtyr ’%4-–(- 2jzGlw5 tynwHopF Gsp FlxCwtyr IlEtlmtwtGA zq
C- jsp szEtBzyGlw wtyp tF Gsp lIpElrp IlEtlynp zq l Ftyrwp qHwwA rEzJy GEpp ’JtGs,
zHG mzzGFGElC FlxCwtyr(- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp lIpElrp xply,FDHlEpo pEEzE+
FDHlEpo mtlF lyo IlEtlynp zq Gsp pyFpxmwp+ lF l qHynGtzy zq x- YzGp GslG Gsp
IlEtlynp lKtF tF zy Gsp EtrsG ’Flxp Fnlwp+ ot;pEpyG wpIpw(- jsp szEtBzyGlw wtyp tF
Gsp lIpElrp FDHlEpo,mtlF zq l qHwwA rEzJy GEpp-
04-?-1 MtlF
LF ty mlrrtyr+ Gsp mtlF zq l Elyozx qzEpFG tF Gsp Flxp lF Gsp mtlF zq lyA
zq Gsp tyotItoHlw FlxCwpo GEppF j ’K: Θ’e((9
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CEHypo GEpp rEzJy Gz e+ Ftynp Gsp ElyozxtBlGtzy lyo EpoHnpo FlxCwp FClnp
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rtyr zE Elyozx qzEpFGF lEp FzwpwA l EpFHwG zq IlEtlynp EpoHnGtzy-
LyA otFnHFFtzy zq mtlF opCpyoF zy Gsp HyvyzJy GEHp qHynGtzy- Qtr!
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Gsp FslCp lyo ElGp zq Gsp mtlF nHEIpF xlA otΓpE+ Gsp rpypElw GEpyo tF GslG
lF x opnEplFpF+ Gsp mtlF tynEplFpF- iszJy ty Gsp ¨rHEp tF Gsp xply!FDHlEpo
pEEzE+ lyo Jp Fpp l nwlFFtnlw mtlF!IlEtlynp GElop!zΓ ty Gsp nsztnp zq x- QzE
lww x Gsp FDHlEpo mtlF zq Gsp Elyozx qzEpFG tF rEplGpE Gsly GslG qzE l Ftyrwp
GEpp ’szEtBzyGlw wtyp(-
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qzEx Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy opntFtzy-
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Random Forest Classifier 3−Nearest Neighbors
o o oo o o oo
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Training Error: 0.000 oo Training Error: 0.130 oo
o o o o
Test Error: 0.238 Test Error: 0.242
Bayes Error: 0.210 o Bayes Error: 0.210 o
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0.4
dzC;ntCyGF
dzC;ntCyGF
svi svi
lweight lweight
pgg45 pgg45
lbph lbph
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
gleason gleason
age age
−0.2
−0.2
lcp lcp
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0 50 100 150 200

C
Gˆ v Vαv V uGCElGtzy
QTRIFD 05W0W fEz6wpF zq pFGtxlGpo nzpffntpyGF qEzx wtyplE EprEpFFtzy+ qzE Gsp
CEzFGlGp olGl FGHotpo ty NslCGpE “- jsp wpqG Clypw C
FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF qEzx Gsp wlFFz+
qzE ot;pEpyG IlwHpF zq Gsp mzHyo ClElxpGpE R ˆ v Vαv V- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF
Gsp EpFHwGF zq Gsp FGlrpJtFp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy LwrzEtGsx %”-%+ HFtyr X ˆ ==/
nzyFpnHGtIp FGpCF zq FtBp ε ˆ ,/%-
ylw IlEtlmwpF cv GspxFpwIpF: GslG tF+ l xHwGtCwp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy xzopw- jsp
wpqG Clypw otFCwlAF Gsp CEz¨wpF zq pFGtxlGpo ( nzpffntpyGF qEzx Gsp wlFFz+ qzE
otΓpEpyG IlwHpF zq Gsp mzHyo ClElxpGpE G ˆ v Kαv K- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF
Gsp EpFHwGF zq Gsp FGlrpJtFp LwrzEtGsx %[-%+ JtGs X ˆ =4$ lyo ε ˆ $,$%-
”jsp wpqG lyo EtrsG ClypwF zq QtrHEp %[-% lEp Gsp Flxp lF QtrHEp “-%$ lyo
Gsp wpqG Clypw zq QtrHEp “-%–+ EpFCpnGtIpwA-fl jsp FtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy Gsp GJz
rElCsF tF FGEtvtyr-
Ty Fzxp FtGHlGtzyF Gsp EpFpxmwlynp tF xzEp Gsly DHlwtGlGtIp- QzE pKlxCwp+
tq lww zq Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF jv lEp xHGHlwwA HynzEEpwlGpo+ Gspy lF ε ↓ $+ X ↑
FHns GslG X ǫ → G+ LwrzEtGsx %[-% ( AtpwoF pKlnGwA Gsp Flxp FzwHGtzy lF Gsp
wlFFz qzE mzHyo ClElxpGpE G ˆ v Kαv K ’lyo wtvpJtFp qzE lww FzwHGtzyF lwzyr
Gsp ClGs(- Zq nzHEFp+ GEpp!mlFpo EprEpFFzEF lEp yzG HynzEEpwlGpo- SzJpIpE+
Gsp FzwHGtzy FpGF lEp lwFz topyGtnlw tq Gsp nzpffntpyGF α— v ’λ( lEp lww xzyzGzyp
qHynGtzyF zq λ- jstF tF zqGpy Gsp nlFp Jspy Gsp nzEEpwlGtzy mpGJppy Gsp
IlEtlmwpF tF wzJ- bspy Gsp α — v ’λ( lEp yzG xzyzGzyp ty λ+ Gspy Gsp FzwHGtzy
FpGF lEp yzG topyGtnlw- jsp FzwHGtzy FpGF qzE LwrzEtGsx %[-% Gpyo Gz nslyrp
wpFF ElCtowA JtGs nslyrtyr IlwHpF zq Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpE Gsly GszFp
zq Gsp wlFFz-
[%/ %[- PyFpxmwp plEytyr
PqEzy pG lw- ’=$$?( xlvp Gsp nzyypnGtzyF xzEp CEpntFp+ mA nslElnGpEtBtyr

Gsp pKlnG FzwHGtzy ClGsF ty Gsp ε!wtxtGtyr nlFp- jspA FszJ GslG Gsp nzpff!
ntpyG ClGsF lEp Ctpnp!JtFp wtyplE qHynGtzyF+ mzGs qzE Gsp wlFFz lyo qzEJlEo
FGlrpJtFp- jstF qlntwtGlGpF pffntpyG lwrzEtGsxF Jstns lwwzJ Gsp pyGtEp ClGsF
Gz mp nzxCHGpo JtGs Gsp Flxp nzFG lF l Ftyrwp wplFG!FDHlEpF ¨G- jstF wplFG
lyrwp EprEpFFtzy lwrzEtGsx tF opFnEtmpo ty xzEp opGltw ty ipnGtzy “-]-%-
SlFGtp pG lw- ’=$$fi( FszJ GslG GstF tyÿtGpFtxlw qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp lwrz!
EtGsx ’Qi$ ( ¨GF l xzyzGzyp IpEFtzy zq Gsp wlFFz+ Jstns zCGtxlwwA EpoHnpF
lG plns FGpC Gsp wzFF qHynGtzy qzE l rtIpy tynEplFp ty Gsp lEn wpyrGs zq Gsp
nzpffntpyG ClGs ’Fpp ipnGtzyF %[-=-“ lyo “-]-%(- jsp lEn!wpyrGs qzE Gsp ǫ / $
nlFp tF X ǫ+ lyo spynp CEzCzEGtzylw Gz Gsp yHxmpE zq FGpCF-
jEpp mzzFGtyr ’LwrzEtGsx %$-“( JtGs FsEtyvlrp ’%$-?%( nwzFpwA EpFpxmwpF
LwrzEtGsx %[-%+ JtGs Gsp wplEytyr ElGp ClElxpGpE ν nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz ε- QzE
FDHlEpo pEEzE wzFF+ Gsp zywA otΓpEpynp tF GslG Gsp zCGtxlw GEpp Gz mp FpwpnGpo
lG plns tGpElGtzy jv{ tF lCCEzKtxlGpo mA Gsp FGlyolEo GzC!ozJy rEppoA
GEpp!tyoHnGtzy lwrzEtGsx- QzE zGspE wzFF qHynGtzyF+ FHns lF Gsp pKCzypyGtlw
wzFF zq LolMzzFG lyo Gsp mtyzxtlw opItlynp+ hzFFpG pG lw- ’=$$?l( FszJ
FtxtwlE EpFHwGF Gz JslG Jp Fpp spEp- jsHF+ zyp nly ItpJ GEpp mzzFGtyr JtGs
FsEtyvlrp lF l qzEx zq xzyzGzyp tww!CzFpo EprEpFFtzy zy lww CzFFtmwp ’U!
GpExtylw yzop( GEppF+ JtGs Gsp wlFFz CpylwGA ’%[-?( lF l EprHwlEtBpE- bp
EpGHEy Gz GstF GzCtn ty ipnGtzy %[-=-“-
jsp nsztnp zq yz FsEtyvlrp ”ν ˆ % ty pDHlGtzy ’%$-?%(fl tF lylwzrzHF Gz
qzEJlEo!FGpCJtFp EprEpFFtzy+ lyo tGF xzEp lrrEpFFtIp nzHFty mpFG!FHmFpG
( Fp!
wpnGtzy+ Jstns CpylwtBpF Gsp yHxmpE zq yzy BpEz nzpffntpyGF U’α( ˆ v Kαv K$ -
btGs l Fxlww qElnGtzy zq ozxtylyG IlEtlmwpF+ mpFG FHmFpG lCCEzlnspF zqGpy
JzEv Jpww- MHG JtGs l xzopElGp qElnGtzy zq FGEzyr IlEtlmwpF+ tG tF Jpww vyzJy
GslG FHmFpG FpwpnGtzy nly mp pKnpFFtIpwA rEppoA ’NzClF+ %–]“(+ zqGpy Atpwotyr
CzzE EpFHwGF Jspy nzxClEpo Gz wpFF lrrEpFFtIp FGElGprtpF FHns lF Gsp wlFFz
zE Etorp EprEpFFtzy- jsp oElxlGtn txCEzIpxpyGF zqGpy Fppy Jspy FsEtyvlrp
tF HFpo JtGs mzzFGtyr lEp ApG lyzGspE nzyËxlGtzy zq GstF lCCEzlns-
0”-1-1 jsp 2MpG zy iClEFtGA5 fEtyntCwp

LF FszJy ty Gsp CEpItzHF FpnGtzy+ mzzFGtyr&F qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp FGElGprA
JtGs FsEtyvlrp lCCEzKtxlGpwA xtytxtBpF Gsp Flxp wzFF qHynGtzy JtGs l
wlFFz!FGAwp 0 CpylwGA- jsp xzopw tF mHtwG HC FwzJwA+ FplEnstyr GsEzHrs
˜xzopw FClnp˙ lyo lootyr FsEHyvpy mlFtF qHynGtzyF opEtIpo qEzx txCzE!
GlyG CEpotnGzEF- Ty nzyGElFG+ Gsp = CpylwGA tF nzxCHGlGtzylwwA xHns plFtpE
Gz oplw JtGs+ lF FszJy ty ipnGtzy %=-“-fi- btGs Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF lyo =
CpylwGA nszFpy Gz xlGns l ClEGtnHwlE CzFtGtIp!opÿtGp vpEypw+ zyp nly FzwIp
Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr zCGtxtBlGtzy CEzmwpx JtGszHG pKCwtntGwA FplEnstyr zIpE
tyotItoHlw mlFtF qHynGtzyF-
SzJpIpE+ Gsp FzxpGtxpF FHCpEtzE CpEqzExlynp zq mzzFGtyr zIpE CEznp!
oHEpF FHns lF Gsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE xlnstyp xlA mp wlErpwA oHp Gz Gsp tx!
CwtntG HFp zq Gsp 0 IpEFHF = CpylwGA- jsp FsEtyvlrp EpFHwGtyr qEzx Gsp
%[-= MzzFGtyr lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy flGsF [%%
0 CpylwGA tF mpGGpE FHtGpo Gz FClEFp FtGHlGtzyF+ JspEp GspEp lEp qpJ mlFtF
qHynGtzyF JtGs yzyBpEz nzpffntpyGF ’lxzyr lww CzFFtmwp nsztnpF(-
bp nly FGEpyrGspy GstF lErHxpyG GsEzHrs l FtxCwp pKlxCwp+ Glvpy qEzx
QEtpoxly pG lw- ’=$$?(- iHCCzFp Jp slIp %$W $$$ olGl CztyGF lyo zHE xzopw
tF l wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy zq l xtwwtzy GEppF- Tq Gsp GEHp CzCHwlGtzy nzpffntpyGF
zq GspFp GEppF lEzFp qEzx l RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy+ Gspy Jp vyzJ GslG ty l
MlApFtly FpyFp Gsp mpFG CEpotnGzE tF Etorp EprEpFFtzy ’PKpEntFp “-[(- jslG tF+
Jp FszHwo HFp ly = ElGspE Gsly ly 0 CpylwGA Jspy ¨GGtyr Gsp nzpffntpyGF-
Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ tq GspEp lEp zywA l Fxlww yHxmpE ’p-r-+ %$$$( nzpffntpyGF
GslG lEp yzyBpEz+ Gsp wlFFz ’ 0 CpylwGA( Jtww JzEv mpGGpE- bp Gstyv zq GstF
lF l FClEFp FnpylEtz+ Jstwp Gsp ËFG nlFp ’RlHFFtly nzpffntpyGF( tF opyFp-
YzGp szJpIpE GslG ty Gsp opyFp FnpylEtz+ lwGszHrs Gsp = CpylwGA tF mpFG+
yptGspE xpGszo ozpF IpEA Jpww Ftynp GspEp tF Gzz wtGGwp olGl qEzx Jstns Gz
pFGtxlGp FHns l wlErp yHxmpE zq yzyBpEz nzpffntpyGF- jstF tF Gsp nHEFp zq
otxpyFtzylwtGA Glvtyr tGF Gzww- Ty l FClEFp FpGGtyr+ Jp nly CzGpyGtlwwA oz
Jpww JtGs Gsp 0 CpylwGA+ Ftynp Gsp yHxmpE zq yzyBpEz nzpffntpyGF tF Fxlww-
jsp = CpylwGA qltwF lrlty-
Ty zGspE JzEoF+ HFp zq Gsp 0 CpylwGA qzwwzJF JslG Jp nlww Gsp ˜mpG zy
FClEFtGA˙ CEtyntCwp qzE strs!otxpyFtzylw CEzmwpxF9
kFp l CEznpoHEp GslG ozpF Jpww ty FClEFp CEzmwpxF) Ftynp yz CEz,

npoHEp ozpF Jpww ty opyFp CEzmwpxF-
jspFp nzxxpyGF yppo Fzxp DHlwt¨nlGtzy9
| QzE lyA rtIpy lCCwtnlGtzy+ Gsp oprEpp zq FClEFpypFF#opyFpypFF opCpyoF

zy Gsp HyvyzJy GEHp GlErpG qHynGtzy+ lyo Gsp nszFpy otnGtzylEA H -
| jsp yzGtzy zq FClEFp IpEFHF opyFp tF EpwlGtIp Gz Gsp FtBp zq Gsp GElty!
tyr olGl FpG lyo#zE Gsp yztFp!Gz!Ftrylw ElGtz ’Yih(- lErpE GEltytyr
FpGF lwwzJ HF Gz pFGtxlGp nzpffntpyGF JtGs FxlwwpE FGlyolEo pEEzEF-
tvpJtFp ty FtGHlGtzyF JtGs Fxlww Yih+ Jp nly topyGtqA xzEp yzyBpEz
nzpffntpyGF JtGs l rtIpy FlxCwp FtBp Gsly ty FtGHlGtzyF JspEp Gsp Yih
tF wlErpE-
| jsp FtBp zq Gsp otnGtzylEA CwlAF l Ezwp lF Jpww- TynEplFtyr Gsp FtBp zq Gsp
otnGtzylEA xlA wplo Gz l FClEFpE EpCEpFpyGlGtzy qzE zHE qHynGtzy+ mHG
Gsp FplEns CEzmwpx mpnzxpF xzEp otffnHwG wplotyr Gz strspE IlEtlynp-
QtrHEp %[-= twwHFGElGpF GspFp CztyGF ty Gsp nzyGpKG zq wtyplE xzopwF HF!
tyr FtxHwlGtzy- bp nzxClEp Etorp EprEpFFtzy lyo wlFFz+ mzGs qzE nwlFFt¨!
nlGtzy lyo EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpxF- Plns EHy slF 4$ zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGs “$$
tyopCpyopyG RlHFFtly CEpotnGzEF- Ty Gsp GzC EzJ lww “$$ nzpffntpyGF lEp
yzyBpEz+ rpypElGpo qEzx l RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy- Ty Gsp xtoowp EzJ+ zywA
%$ lEp yzyBpEz lyo rpypElGpo qEzx l RlHFFtly+ lyo Gsp wlFG EzJ slF “$
yzy BpEz RlHFFtly nzpffntpyGF- QzE EprEpFFtzy+ FGlyolEo RlHFFtly yztFp tF
[%= %[- PyFpxmwp plEytyr
Regression Classification
Lasso/Gaussian Ridge/Gaussian Lasso/Gaussian Ridge/Gaussian

1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
Percentage Squared Prediction Error Explained
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Percentage Misclassification Error Explained

Lasso/Subset 10 Ridge/Subset 10 Lasso/Subset 10 Ridge/Subset 10
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Lasso/Subset 30 Ridge/Subset 30 Lasso/Subset 30 Ridge/Subset 30

1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Noise−to−Signal Ratio Noise−to−Signal Ratio
QTRIFD 05W1W itxHwlGtzyF GslG FszJ Gsp FHCpEtzEtGA zq Gsp 0 ’wlFFz( CpylwGA
zIpE = ’Etorp( ty EprEpFFtzy lyo nwlFFt6nlGtzy- Plns EHy slF 4/ zmFpEIlGtzyF
JtGs “// tyopCpyopyG RlHFFtly CEpotnGzEF- Ty Gsp GzC EzJ lww “// nzpffntpyGF lEp
yzyBpEz+ rpypElGpo qEzx l RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy- Ty Gsp xtoowp EzJ+ zywA %/ lEp
yzyBpEz+ lyo Gsp wlFG EzJ slF “/ yzyBpEz- RlHFFtly pEEzEF lEp loopo Gz Gsp wtyplE
CEpotnGzE η’c( qzE Gsp EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpxF+ lyo mtylEA EpFCzyFpF rpypElGpo Itl Gsp
tyIpEFp,wzrtG GElyFqzEx qzE Gsp nwlFFt6nlGtzy CEzmwpxF- inlwtyr zq η’c( EpFHwGpo ty
Gsp yztFp,Gz,Ftrylw ElGtzF FszJy- lFFz tF HFpo ty Gsp wpqG FHm,nzwHxyF+ Etorp ty Gsp
EtrsG- bp EpCzEG Gsp zCGtxlw CpEnpyGlrp zq pEEzE pKCwltypo zy GpFG olGl ’EpwlGtIp
Gz Gsp pEEzE zq l nzyFGlyG xzopw(+ otFCwlApo lF mzKCwzGF zIpE =/ EplwtBlGtzyF qzE
plns nzxmtylGtzy- Ty Gsp zywA FtGHlGtzy JspEp Etorp mplGF wlFFz ’GzC EzJ(+ yptGspE
oz Jpww-
%[-= MzzFGtyr lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy flGsF [%“
loopo Gz Gsp wtyplE CEpotnGzE η’c( ˆ c j β Gz CEzoHnp l nzyGtyHzHF Ep!

FCzyFp- QzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy Gsp wtyplE CEpotnGzE tF GElyFqzExpo Itl Gsp tyIpEFp!
wzrtG Gz l CEzmlmtwtGA+ lyo l mtylEA EpFCzyFp tF rpypElGpo- QtIp otΓpE!
pyG yztFp!Gz!Ftrylw ElGtzF lEp CEpFpyGpo+ zmGltypo mA Fnlwtyr η’c( CEtzE
Gz rpypElGtyr Gsp EpFCzyFp- Ty mzGs nlFpF GstF tF opÿpo Gz mp dih ˆ
alE’d Kη’c((.alE’η’c((- MzGs Gsp Etorp EprEpFFtzy lyo wlFFz nzpffntpyG
ClGsF JpEp ¨G HFtyr l FpEtpF zq 4$ IlwHpF zq λ nzEEpFCzyotyr Gz l Elyrp zq
oq qEzx % Gz 4$ ’Fpp NslCGpE “ qzE opGltwF(- jsp xzopwF JpEp pIlwHlGpo zy
l wlErp GpFG FpG ’tyÿtGp qzE RlHFFtly+ 4$$$ qzE mtylEA(+ lyo ty plns nlFp Gsp
IlwHp qzE λ JlF nszFpy Gz xtytxtBp Gsp GpFG!FpG pEEzE- bp EpCzEG CpEnpyGlrp
IlEtlynp pKCwltypo qzE Gsp EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpxF+ lyo CpEnpyGlrp xtFnwlFFt¨!
nlGtzy pEEzE pKCwltypo qzE Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpxF ’EpwlGtIp Gz l mlFpwtyp
pEEzE zq $,4(- jspEp lEp =$ FtxHwlGtzy EHyF qzE plns FnpylEtz-
YzGp GslG qzE Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpxF+ Jp lEp HFtyr FDHlEpo!pEEzE wzFF
Gz ¨G Gsp mtylEA EpFCzyFp- YzGp lwFz GslG Jp oz yzG HFtyr Gsp GEltytyr
olGl Gz FpwpnG λ+ mHG ElGspE lEp EpCzEGtyr Gsp mpFG CzFFtmwp mpslItzE qzE
plns xpGszo ty Gsp otΓpEpyG FnpylEtzF- jsp = CpylwGA CpEqzExF CzzEwA
pIpEAJspEp- jsp lFFz CpEqzExF EplFzylmwA Jpww ty Gsp zywA GJz FtGHlGtzyF
JspEp tG nly ’FClEFp nzpffntpyGF(- LF pKCpnGpo Gsp CpEqzExlynp rpGF JzEFp
lF Gsp Yih tynEplFpF ’wpFF Fz qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy(+ lyo lF Gsp xzopw mpnzxpF
opyFpE- jsp otΓpEpynpF lEp wpFF xlEvpo qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy Gsly qzE EprEpFFtzy-
jspFp pxCtEtnlw EpFHwGF lEp FHCCzEGpo mA l wlErp mzoA zq GspzEpGtnlw
EpFHwGF ’Ozyzsz lyo UzsyFGzyp+ %––?: Ozyzsz lyo Pwlo+ =$$“: Ozyzsz+
=$$[m: NlyopF lyo jlz+ =$$fi( GslG FHCCzEG Gsp FHCpEtzEtGA zq 0 pFGtxlGtzy
ty FClEFp FpGGtyrF-
0”-1-“ hprHwlEtBlGtzy flGsF) ZIpE,6GGtyr lyo clErtyF

TG slF zqGpy mppy zmFpEIpo GslG mzzFGtyr õzpF yzG zIpE¨G+˙ zE xzEp lF!
GHGpwA tF ˜FwzJ Gz zIpE¨G-˙ flEG zq Gsp pKCwlylGtzy qzE GstF Cspyzxpyzy JlF
xlop plEwtpE qzE Elyozx qzEpFGF 1 xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzE tF wpFF FpyFtGtIp Gz
IlEtlynp Gsly tF xply!FDHlEpo pEEzE+ lyo nwlFFt¨nlGtzy tF Gsp xluzE qznHF
ty Gsp mzzFGtyr nzxxHytGA- Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp FszJ GslG Gsp EprHwlEtBl!
Gtzy ClGsF zq mzzFGpo xzopwF lEp ˜Jpww mpslIpo+˙ lyo GslG qzE npEGlty wzFF
qHynGtzyF GspA slIp ly lCCplwtyr wtxtGtyr qzEx-
QtrHEp %[-“ FszJF Gsp nzpffntpyG ClGsF qzE wlFFz lyo tyÿtGpFtxlw qzEJlEo
FGlrpJtFp ’Qi$ ( ty l FtxHwlGpo EprEpFFtzy FpGGtyr- jsp olGl nzyFtFGF zq l
otnGtzylEA zq %$$$ RlHFFtly IlEtlmwpF+ FGEzyrwA nzEEpwlGpo ’ρ ˆ $,–4( JtGsty
mwznvF zq =$+ mHG HynzEEpwlGpo mpGJppy mwznvF- jsp rpypElGtyr xzopw slF
yzyBpEz nzpffntpyGF qzE 4$ IlEtlmwpF+ zyp oElJy qEzx plns mwznv+ lyo Gsp
nzpffntpyG IlwHpF lEp oElJy qEzx l FGlyolEo RlHFFtly- QtylwwA+ RlHFFtly
yztFp tF loopo+ JtGs l yztFp!Gz!Ftrylw ElGtz zq $,fi= ’PKpEntFp %[-%-( jsp
Qi$ lwrzEtGsx tF l wtxtGtyr qzEx zq lwrzEtGsx %[-%+ JspEp Gsp FGpC FtBp ε
tF FsEHyv Gz BpEz ’ipnGtzy “-]-%(- jsp rEzHCtyr zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF tF tyGpyopo
Gz xtxtn Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF zq yplEmA GEppF+ lyo JtGs Gsp qzEJlEo!FGlrpJtFp
[%? %[- PyFpxmwp plEytyr
LASSO Forward Stagewise
30
30
20
20
Standardized Coefficients
Standardized Coefficients
10
10
0
0
−10
−10
−20
−20
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Vα’x(V.Vα’∞(V Vα’x(V.Vα’∞(V
QTRIFD 05W2W NzxClEtFzy zq wlFFz lyo ty6ytGpFtxlw qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp ClGsF

zy FtxHwlGpo EprEpFFtzy olGl- jsp yHxmpE zq FlxCwpF tF [/ lyo Gsp yHxmpE zq
IlEtlmwpF tF %///- jsp qzEJlEo,FGlrpJtFp ClGsF 7HnGHlGp wpFF Gsly GszFp zq wlFFz
ty Gsp 6ylw FGlrpF zq Gsp lwrzEtGsxF-
lwrzEtGsx+ GstF FpGHC tF tyGpyopo lF ly toplwtBpo IpEFtzy zq rElotpyG mzzFGtyr

JtGs FsEtyvlrp- QzE mzGs GspFp lwrzEtGsxF+ Gsp nzpffntpyG ClGsF nly mp
nzxCHGpo pKlnGwA+ Ftynp GspA lEp CtpnpJtFp wtyplE ’Fpp Gsp Lhi lwrzEtGsx
ty ipnGtzy “-]-%(-
SpEp Gsp nzpffntpyG CEz¨wpF lEp FtxtwlE zywA ty Gsp plEwA FGlrpF zq Gsp
ClGsF- QzE Gsp wlGpE FGlrpF+ Gsp qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp ClGsF Gpyo Gz mp xzyz!
Gzyp lyo FxzzGspE+ Jstwp GszFp qzE Gsp wlFFz 7HnGHlGp JtopwA- jstF tF oHp
Gz Gsp FGEzyr nzEEpwlGtzyF lxzyr FHmFpGF zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF 1wlFFz FHΓpEF
FzxpJslG qEzx Gsp xHwGt!nzwwtyplEtGA CEzmwpx ’PKpEntFp “-=](-
jsp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp GJz xzopwF tF ElGspE FtxtwlE ’QtrHEp %[-?(+ lyo
GspA lnstpIp lmzHG Gsp Flxp xtytxHx- Ty Gsp wlGpE FGlrpF qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp
GlvpF wzyrpE Gz zIpE¨G+ l wtvpwA nzyFpDHpynp zq Gsp FxzzGspE ClGsF-
SlFGtp pG lw- ’=$$fi( FszJ GslG Qi$ FzwIpF l xzyzGzyp IpEFtzy zq Gsp wlFFz
CEzmwpx qzE FDHlEpo pEEzE wzFF- pG H l ˆ H ∪ ·}H • mp Gsp lHrxpyGpo
otnGtzylEA zmGltypo mA tynwHotyr l(yprlGtIp nzCA zq pIpEA mlFtF pwpxpyG
ty H - bp nzyFtopE xzopwF q ’K( ˆ jv ∈H l αv jv ’K( JtGs yzy!yprlGtIp nz!
pffntpyGF αv ≥ $- Ty GstF pKClyopo FClnp+ Gsp wlFFz nzpffntpyG ClGsF lEp
CzFtGtIp+ Jstwp GszFp zq Qi$ lEp xzyzGzyp yzyopnEplFtyr-
jsp xzyzGzyp wlFFz ClGs tF nslElnGpEtBpo mA l otΓpEpyGtlw pDHlGtzy
∂α
ˆ ρxw ’α’ℓ((W ’%[-[(
∂ℓ
%[-= MzzFGtyr lyo hprHwlEtBlGtzy flGsF [%4
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o
55
o Forward Stagewise
50
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35
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30
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25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
KαWx(K
QTRIFD 05W3W cply FDHlEpo pEEzE qzE wlFFz lyo ty6ytGpFtxlw qzEJlEo FGlrpJtFp
zy Gsp FtxHwlGpo olGl- OpFCtGp Gsp ot;pEpynp ty Gsp nzpffntpyG ClGsF+ Gsp GJz
xzopwF CpEqzEx FtxtwlEwA zIpE Gsp nEtGtnlw ClEG zq Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClGs- Ty Gsp
EtrsG Gltw+ wlFFz lCCplEF Gz zIpE6G xzEp ElCtowA-
JtGs tytGtlw nzyotGtzy α’$( ˆ $+ JspEp ℓ tF Gsp 0 lEn!wpyrGs zq Gsp ClGs

α’ℓ( ’PKpEntFp %[-=(- jsp xzyzGzyp wlFFz xzIp otEpnGtzy ’IpwzntGA IpnGzE(
ρxw ’α’ℓ(( opnEplFpF Gsp wzFF lG Gsp zCGtxlw DHloElGtn ElGp CpE HytG tynEplFp
ty Gsp 0 lEn!wpyrGs zq Gsp ClGs- itynp ρxw v ’α’ℓ(( ≥ $ {vW ℓ+ Gsp FzwHGtzy
ClGsF lEp xzyzGzyp-
jsp wlFFz nly FtxtwlEwA mp nslElnGpEtBpo lF Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz l otΓpEpyGtlw
pDHlGtzy lF ty ’%[-[(+ pKnpCG GslG Gsp xzIp otEpnGtzyF opnEplFp Gsp wzFF
zCGtxlwwA CpE HytG tynEplFp ty Gsp 0 yzEx zq Gsp ClGs- LF l nzyFpDHpynp+
GspA lEp yzG ypnpFFlEtwA CzFtGtIp+ lyo spynp Gsp wlFFz ClGsF yppo yzG mp
xzyzGzyp-
Ty GstF lHrxpyGpo otnGtzylEA+ EpFGEtnGtyr Gsp nzpffntpyGF Gz mp CzFtGtIp tF
ylGHElw+ Ftynp tG lIztoF ly zmItzHF lxmtrHtGA- TG lwFz GtpF ty xzEp ylGHElwwA
JtGs GEpp mzzFGtyr1Jp lwJlAF ÿo GEppF CzFtGtIpwA nzEEpwlGpo JtGs Gsp
nHEEpyG EpFtoHlw-
jspEp slIp mppy FHrrpFGtzyF GslG mzzFGtyr CpEqzExF Jpww ’qzE GJz!nwlFF
nwlFFt¨nlGtzy( mpnlHFp tG pKstmtGF xlKtxlw!xlErty CEzCpEGtpF+ xHns wtvp Gsp
FHCCzEG!IpnGzE xlnstypF zq NslCGpEF ?-4-= lyo %=- inslCtEp ( pG lw- ’%––](
opÿp Gsp yzExlwtBpo 0 xlErty zq l ¨GGpo xzopw q ’K( ˆ v αv jv ’K( lF
At q ’Kt (
x’q ( ˆ xty (V , ’%[-fi(
vˆ0 Kαv K
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kywtvp Gsp = xlErty ’?-?$( zq FHCCzEG IpnGzE xlnstypF+ Gsp 0 xlErty
x’q ( xplFHEpF Gsp otFGlynp Gz Gsp nwzFpFG GEltytyr CztyG ty ∞ HytGF ’xlK!
txHx nzzEotylGp otFGlynp(-
[%[ %[- PyFpxmwp plEytyr
0.1
0.28
0.0
0.27
Test Error
Margin
−0.1
0.26
−0.2
0.25
−0.3
0 2K 4K 6K 8K 10K 0 2K 4K 6K 8K 10K
Number of Trees Number of Trees
QTRIFD 05W4W jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF Gsp 0 xlErty x’q ( qzE Gsp LolmzzFG nwlF,
Ft6pE zy Gsp xtKGHEp olGl+ lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp yHxmpE zq ?,yzop GEppF- jsp xzopw
JlF 6G HFtyr Gsp h Clnvlrp rmx+ JtGs l FsEtyvlrp qlnGzE zq /,/=- LqGpE %/W ///
GEppF+ x’q ( slF FpGGwpo ozJy- YzGp GslG Jspy Gsp xlErty nEzFFpF BpEz+ Gsp GEltytyr
pEEzE mpnzxpF BpEz- jsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp GpFG pEEzE+ Jstns tF xtytxtBpo lG
=?/ GEppF- Ty GstF nlFp+ LolmzzFG zIpE6GF oElxlGtnlwwA tq EHy Gz nzyIpErpynp-
inslCtEp pG lw- ’%––]( CEzIp GslG JtGs FpClElmwp olGl+ LolmzzFG ty!
nEplFpF x’q ( JtGs plns tGpElGtzy+ nzyIpErtyr Gz l xlErty!FAxxpGEtn Fz!
wHGtzy- h6lGFns lyo blExHGs ’=$$=( CEzIp Gsp lFAxCGzGtn nzyIpErpynp zq
LolmzzFG JtGs FsEtyvlrp Gz l 0 !xlErty!xlKtxtBtyr FzwHGtzy- hzFFpG pG
lw- ’=$$?l( nzyFtopE EprHwlEtBpo xzopwF zq Gsp qzEx ’%[-=( qzE rpypElw wzFF
qHynGtzyF- jspA FszJ GslG lF λ ↓ $+ qzE ClEGtnHwlE wzFF qHynGtzyF Gsp FzwHGtzy
nzyIpErpF Gz l xlErty!xlKtxtBtyr nzy¨rHElGtzy- Ty ClEGtnHwlE GspA FszJ
GstF Gz mp Gsp nlFp qzE Gsp pKCzypyGtlw wzFF zq LolmzzFG+ lF Jpww lF mtyzxtlw
opItlynp-
NzwwpnGtyr GzrpGspE Gsp EpFHwGF zq GstF FpnGtzy+ Jp Eplns Gsp qzwwzJtyr
FHxxlEA qzE mzzFGpo nwlFFt¨pEF9
jsp FpDHpynp zq mzzFGpo nwlFFt¨pEF qzEx ly 0 ,EprHwlEtBpo xzyz,
Gzyp ClGs Gz l xlErty,xlKtxtBtyr FzwHGtzy-
Zq nzHEFp Gsp xlErty!xlKtxtBtyr pyo zq Gsp ClGs nly mp l IpEA CzzE+ zIpE¨G
FzwHGtzy+ lF tG tF ty Gsp pKlxCwp ty QtrHEp %[-4- PlEwA FGzCCtyr lxzHyGF
Gz Ctnvtyr l CztyG lwzyr Gsp ClGs+ lyo FszHwo mp ozyp JtGs Gsp lto zq l
IlwtolGtzy olGlFpG-
0”-“ plEytyr PyFpxmwpF

jsp tyFtrsGF wplEypo qEzx Gsp CEpItzHF FpnGtzyF nly mp slEypFFpo Gz CEzoHnp
l xzEp pΓpnGtIp lyo pffntpyG pyFpxmwp xzopw- Lrlty Jp nzyFtopE qHynGtzyF
%[-“ plEytyr PyFpxmwpF [%fi
zq Gsp qzEx ∑
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JspEp H tF l otnGtzylEA zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF+ GACtnlwwA GEppF- QzE rElotpyG

mzzFGtyr lyo Elyozx qzEpFGF+ KH K tF IpEA wlErp+ lyo tG tF DHtGp GACtnlw qzE Gsp
ÿlw xzopw Gz tyIzwIp xlyA GszHFlyoF zq GEppF- Ty Gsp CEpItzHF FpnGtzy Jp
lErHp GslG rElotpyG mzzFGtyr JtGs FsEtyvlrp ¨GF ly 0 EprHwlEtBpo xzyzGzyp
ClGs ty GstF FClnp zq GEppF-
QEtpoxly lyo fzCpFnH ’=$$“( CEzCzFp l sAmEto lCCEzlns Jstns mEplvF
GstF CEznpFF ozJy tyGz GJz FGlrpF9
| L ÿtGp otnGtzylEA H ˆ ·j0 ’K(W j= ’K(W , , , W jX ’K(• zq mlFtF qHynGtzyF
tF tyoHnpo qEzx Gsp GEltytyr olGl:
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otnGtzylEA9
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α
tˆ0 xˆ0 xˆ0
Ty tGF FtxCwpFG qzEx GstF xzopw nzHwo mp Fppy lF l JlA zq CzFG!CEznpFFtyr

mzzFGtyr zE Elyozx qzEpFGF+ Glvtyr qzE H Gsp nzwwpnGtzy zq GEppF CEzoHnpo
mA Gsp rElotpyG mzzFGtyr zE Elyozx qzEpFG lwrzEtGsxF- MA ¨GGtyr Gsp wlFFz
ClGs Gz GspFp GEppF+ Jp JzHwo GACtnlwwA HFp l xHns EpoHnpo FpG+ Jstns JzHwo
FlIp ty nzxCHGlGtzyF lyo FGzElrp qzE qHGHEp CEpotnGtzyF- Ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy
Jp opFnEtmp xzot¨nlGtzyF zq GstF CEpFnEtCGtzy GslG EpoHnp Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF ty
Gsp pyFpxmwp H + lyo txCEzIp Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp wlFFz CzFG CEznpFFzE-
LF ly tytGtlw twwHFGElGtzy+ Jp lCCwA GstF CEznpoHEp Gz l Elyozx qzEpFG
pyFpxmwp rEzJy zy Gsp FClx olGl-
QtrHEp %[-[ FszJF GslG l wlFFz CzFG!CEznpFFtyr zΓpEF xzopFG txCEzIp!
xpyG zIpE Gsp Elyozx qzEpFG ’mwHp nHEIp(+ lyo EpoHnpF Gsp qzEpFG Gz lmzHG
?$ GEppF+ ElGspE Gsly Gsp zEtrtylw %$$$- jsp CzFG!CEznpFFpo CpEqzExlynp
xlGnspF GslG zq rElotpyG mzzFGtyr- jsp zElyrp nHEIpF EpCEpFpyG l xzot¨po
IpEFtzy zq Elyozx qzEpFGF+ opFtrypo Gz EpoHnp Gsp nzEEpwlGtzyF mpGJppy GEppF
pIpy xzEp- SpEp l Elyozx FHm!FlxCwp ’JtGszHG EpCwlnpxpyG( zq 40 zq Gsp
GEltytyr FlxCwp tF HFpo Gz rEzJ plns GEpp+ lyo Gsp GEppF lEp EpFGEtnGpo Gz mp
FslwwzJ ’lmzHG FtK GpExtylw yzopF(- jsp CzFG!CEznpFFtyr zΓpEF xzEp oEl!
xlGtn txCEzIpxpyGF spEp+ lyo Gsp GEltytyr nzFGF lEp EpoHnpo mA l qlnGzE
zq lmzHG %$$- SzJpIpE+ Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp CzFG!CEznpFFpo xzopw qlwwF
FzxpJslG FszEG zq Gsp mwHp nHEIpF-
0”-“-0 plEytyr l Rzzo PyFpxmwp

YzG lww pyFpxmwpF H Jtww CpEqzEx Jpww JtGs CzFG!CEznpFFtyr- Ty GpExF zq
mlFtF qHynGtzyF+ Jp JlyG l nzwwpnGtzy GslG nzIpEF Gsp FClnp Jpww ty CwlnpF
[%] %[- PyFpxmwp plEytyr
Spam Data
0.09
Random Forest
Random Forest (5%, 6)
Gradient Boost (5 node)
0.08
0.07
Test Error
0.06
0.05
0.04
0 100 200 300 400 500
Number of Trees
QTRIFD 05W5W LCCwtnlGtzy zq Gsp wlFFz CzFG,CEznpFFtyr ’%”-–( Gz Gsp FClx olGl-
jsp szEtBzyGlw mwHp wtyp tF Gsp GpFG pEEzE zq l Elyozx qzEpFG 6G Gz Gsp FClx olGl+
HFtyr %/// GEppF rEzJy Gz xlKtxHx opCGs ’JtGs x ˆ fi‘ Fpp LwrzEtGsx %4-%(-
jsp ulrrpo mwHp nHEIp tF Gsp GpFG pEEzE lqGpE CzFG,CEznpFFtyr Gsp 6EFG 4// GEppF
HFtyr Gsp wlFFz+ lF l qHynGtzy zq Gsp yHxmpE zq GEppF JtGs yzyBpEz nzpffntpyGF-
jsp zElyrp nHEIp.wtyp HFp l xzot6po qzEx zq Elyozx qzEpFG+ JspEp l Elyozx
oElJ zq 40 zq Gsp olGl lEp HFpo Gz rEzJ plns GEpp+ lyo Gsp GEppF lEp qzEnpo Gz
mp FslwwzJ ’GACtnlwwA FtK GpExtylw yzopF(- SpEp Gsp CzFG,CEznpFFtyr z;pEF xHns
rEplGpE txCEzIpxpyG zIpE Gsp Elyozx qzEpFG GslG rpypElGpo Gsp pyFpxmwp-
JspEp GspA lEp yppopo+ lyo lEp FHffntpyGwA otΓpEpyG qEzx plns zGspE qzE
Gsp CzFG!CEznpFFzE Gz mp pΓpnGtIp-
QEtpoxly lyo fzCpFnH ’=$$“( rlty tyFtrsGF qEzx yHxpEtnlw DHloElGHEp
lyo txCzEGlynp FlxCwtyr- jspA ItpJ Gsp HyvyzJy qHynGtzy lF ly tyGprElw
∫
q ’K( ˆ β’γ(m’K: γ(oγW ’%[-%$(
JspEp γ ∈ Γ tyopKpF Gsp mlFtF qHynGtzyF m’K: γ(- QzE pKlxCwp+ tq Gsp mlFtF
qHynGtzyF lEp GEppF+ Gspy γ tyopKpF Gsp FCwtGGtyr IlEtlmwpF+ Gsp FCwtG!CztyGF
lyo Gsp IlwHpF ty Gsp GpExtylw yzopF- YHxpEtnlw DHloElGHEp lxzHyGF Gz
(X CztyGF γx ∈ Γ lyo nzEEpFCzyotyr JptrsGF
ÿotyr l FpG zq X pIlwHlGtzy
αx Fz GslG qX ’K( ˆ α$ ) xˆ0 αx m’K: γx ( lCCEzKtxlGpF q ’K( Jpww zIpE
Gsp ozxlty zq K- TxCzEGlynp FlxCwtyr lxzHyGF Gz FlxCwtyr γ lG Elyozx+
mHG rtItyr xzEp JptrsG Gz EpwpIlyG EprtzyF zq Gsp FClnp Γ- QEtpoxly lyo
fzCpFnH ’=$$“( FHrrpFG l xplFHEp zq ’wlnv zq( EpwpIlynp GslG HFpF Gsp wzFF
qHynGtzy ’%[-–(9
%[-“ plEytyr PyFpxmwpF [%–
Y
∑
g’γ( ˆ xty ’At W n$ ) n0 m’Kt : γ((W ’%[-%%(
n$ Wn0
tˆ0
pIlwHlGpo zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl-

Tq l Ftyrwp mlFtF qHynGtzy JpEp Gz mp FpwpnGpo ’p-r-+ l GEpp(+ tG JzHwo mp
Gsp rwzmlw xtytxtBpE γ { ˆ lEr xtyγ∈Γ g’γ(- TyGEzoHntyr ElyozxypFF ty Gsp
FpwpnGtzy zq γ JzHwo ypnpFFlEtwA CEzoHnp wpFF zCGtxlw IlwHpF JtGs g’γ( ≥
g’γ { (- jspA CEzCzFp l ylGHElw xplFHEp zq Gsp nslElnGpEtFGtn JtoGs σ zq Gsp
FlxCwtyr Fnspxp G+
σ ˆ PG ”g’γ( } g’γ { (fl, ’%[-%=(
| σ Gzz ylEEzJ FHrrpFGF Gzz xlyA zq Gsp m’K: γx ( wzzv lwtvp+ lyo FtxtwlE
Gz m’K: γ { (:
| σ Gzz Jtop txCwtpF l wlErp FCEplo ty Gsp m’K: γx (+ mHG CzFFtmwA nzy!
FtFGtyr zq xlyA tEEpwpIlyG nlFpF-
QEtpoxly lyo fzCpFnH ’=$$“( HFp FHm!FlxCwtyr lF l xpnslytFx qzE tyGEz!

oHntyr ElyozxypFF+ wplotyr Gz GsptE pyFpxmwp!rpypElGtzy lwrzEtGsx %[-=-
LwrzEtGsx 05-ˆ Ti P PyFpxmwp RpypElGtzy-

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“- HSi P ˆ ·m’K: γ0 (W m’K: γ= (W , , , W m’K: γX (•-
ix ’η( EpqpEF Gz l FHmFlxCwp zq Y ± η ’η ∈ ’$W %fl( zq Gsp GEltytyr zmFpE!

IlGtzyF+ GACtnlwwA JtGszHG EpCwlnpxpyG- jsptE
√ FtxHwlGtzyF FHrrpFG Ctnvtyr
η ≤ 0= + lyo qzE wlErp Y Ctnvtyr η ∼ %. Y - hpoHntyr η tynEplFpF Gsp
ElyozxypFF+ lyo spynp Gsp JtoGs σ- jsp ClElxpGpE ν ∈ ”$W %fl tyGEzoHnpF
xpxzEA tyGz Gsp ElyozxtBlGtzy CEznpFF: Gsp wlErpE ν+ Gsp xzEp Gsp CEz!
npoHEp lIztoF m’K: γ( FtxtwlE Gz GszFp qzHyo mpqzEp- L yHxmpE zq qlxtwtlE
ElyozxtBlGtzy FnspxpF lEp FCpntlw nlFpF zq LwrzEtGsx %[-=9
Mlrrtyr slF η ˆ %+ mHG FlxCwpF JtGs EpCwlnpxpyG+ lyo slF ν ˆ $- QEtpo!

xly lyo Slww ’=$$fi( lErHp GslG FlxCwtyr JtGszHG EpCwlnpxpyG JtGs
η ˆ %.= tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz FlxCwtyr JtGs EpCwlnpxpyG JtGs η ˆ %+ lyo
Gsp qzExpE tF xHns xzEp pffntpyG-
[=/ %[- PyFpxmwp plEytyr
hlyozx qzEpFG FlxCwtyr tF FtxtwlE+ JtGs xzEp ElyozxypFF tyGEzoHnpo mA

Gsp FpwpnGtzy zq Gsp FCwtGGtyr IlEtlmwp- hpoHntyr η ı %.= ty lwrz!
EtGsx %[-= slF l FtxtwlE pΓpnG Gz EpoHntyr x ty Elyozx qzEpFGF+ mHG
ozpF yzG FHΓpE qEzx Gsp CzGpyGtlw mtlFpF otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy %4-?-=-
RElotpyG mzzFGtyr JtGs FsEtyvlrp ’%$-?%( HFpF η ˆ %+ mHG GACtnlwwA ozpF

yzG CEzoHnp FHffntpyG JtoGs σ-
iGznslFGtn rElotpyG mzzFGtyr ’QEtpoxly+ %–––( qzwwzJF Gsp EpntCp pKlnGwA-
jsp lHGszEF Epnzxxpyo IlwHpF ν ˆ $,% lyo η ≤ 0= + lyo nlww GsptE nzxmtypo
CEznpoHEp ’pyFpxmwp rpypElGtzy lyo CzFG CEznpFFtyr( TxCzEGlynp FlxCwpo
wplEytyr pyFpxmwp ’Ti P(-
QtrHEp %[-fi FszJF Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq ly Ti P zy Gsp FClx olGl- TG ozpF
Spam Data
0.060
Gradient Boosting (5 Node)

Lasso Post−processed
0.055
Test Error
0.050
0.045
0.040
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Number of Trees
QTRIFD 05W6W TxCzEGlynp FlxCwtyr wplEytyr pyFpxmwp ’Ti P( 6G Gz Gsp FClx

olGl- SpEp Jp HFpo η ˆ %.=+ ν ˆ /,/4+ lyo GEppF JtGs 6Ip GpExtylw yzopF- jsp
wlFFz CzFG,CEznpFFpo pyFpxmwp ozpF yzG txCEzIp Gsp CEpotnGtzy pEEzE ty GstF nlFp+
mHG tG EpoHnpF Gsp yHxmpE zq GEppF mA l qlnGzE zq 6Ip-
yzG txCEzIp Gsp CEpotnGtIp CpEqzExlynp+ mHG tF lmwp Gz CEzoHnp l xzEp

ClEFtxzytzHF xzopw- YzGp GslG ty CElnGtnp Gsp CzFG!CEznpFFtyr tynwHopF
Gsp FpwpnGtzy zq Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpE λ ty ’%[-–(+ Jstns JzHwo mp
%[-“ plEytyr PyFpxmwpF [=%
nszFpy mA nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- SpEp Jp FtxCwA opxzyFGElGp Gsp pΓpnGF zq CzFG!

CEznpFFtyr mA FszJtyr Gsp pyGtEp ClGs zy Gsp GpFG olGl-
QtrHEp %[-] FszJF IlEtzHF Ti PF zy l EprEpFFtzy pKlxCwp- jsp rpypElGtyr
3.5
GBM (1, 0.01)

GBM (0.1, 0.01)
ISLE GB
ISLE RF
3.0
Random Forest
Mean Squared Error
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Number of Trees
QTRIFD 05W7W OpxzyFGElGtzy zq pyFpxmwp xpGszoF zy l EprEpFFtzy FtxHwlGtzy

pKlxCwp- jsp yzGlGtzy RMc ’/-%+ /-/%( EpqpEF Gz l rElotpyG mzzFGpo xzopw+ JtGs
ClElxpGpEF ’ηW ν(- bp EpCzEG xply,FDHlEpo pEEzE qEzx Gsp GEHp ’vyzJy( qHynGtzy-
YzGp GslG Gsp FHm,FlxCwpo RMc xzopw ’rEppy( zHGCpEqzExF Gsp qHww RMc xzopw
’zElyrp(- jsp wlFFz CzFG,CEznpFFpo IpEFtzy lnstpIpF FtxtwlE pEEzE- jsp Elyozx
qzEpFG tF zHGCpEqzExpo mA tGF CzFG,CEznpFFpo IpEFtzy+ mHG mzGs qlww FszEG zq Gsp
zGspE xzopwF-
qHynGtzy tF
4
∏ ˜4
∑
=
q ’c( ˆ %$ ± p}=cu ) cH W ’%[-%“(
Hˆ0 Hˆ[
JspEp c ∼ k ”$W %fl0$$ ’Gsp wlFG [4 pwpxpyGF lEp yztFp IlEtlmwpF(- jsp Ep!
FCzyFp d ˆ q ’c( ) ε JspEp ε ∼ Y ’$W σ = (: Jp nszFp σ ˆ %,“ EpFHwGtyr ty l
Ftrylw!Gz!yztFp ElGtz zq lCCEzKtxlGpwA =- bp HFpo l GEltytyr FlxCwp zq FtBp
%$$$+ lyo pFGtxlGpo Gsp xply FDHlEpo pEEzE P’q—’c(}q ’c((= mA lIpElrtyr
zIpE l GpFG FpG zq 4$$ FlxCwpF- jsp FHm!FlxCwpo RMX nHEIp ’wtrsG mwHp(
tF ly tyFGlynp zq FGznslFGtn rElotpyG mzzFGtyr ’QEtpoxly+ %–––( otFnHFFpo ty
ipnGtzy %$-%=+ lyo tG zHGCpEqzExF rElotpyG mzzFGtyr zy GstF pKlxCwp-
[== %[- PyFpxmwp plEytyr
0”-“-1 hHwp PyFpxmwpF

SpEp Jp opFnEtmp l xzot¨nlGtzy zq Gsp GEpp!pyFpxmwp xpGszo GslG qznHFpF
zy tyotItoHlw EHwpF ’QEtpoxly lyo fzCpFnH+ =$$“(- bp pynzHyGpEpo EHwpF
ty ipnGtzy –-“ ty Gsp otFnHFFtzy zq Gsp fhTX xpGszo- jsp topl tF Gz pywlErp
ly pyFpxmwp zq GEppF mA nzyFGEHnGtyr l FpG zq EHwpF qEzx plns zq Gsp GEppF
ty Gsp nzwwpnGtzy-
c0 / =,0 c0 ≥ =,0
1 2
c> ∈ ·i| c> ∈ ·XW |
3 4
c6 / 3,4 c6 ≥ 3,4
5 6
QTRIFD 05W8W L GACtnlw GEpp ty ly pyFpxmwp+ qEzx Jstns EHwpF nly mp opEtIpo-
QtrHEp %[-– opCtnGF l Fxlww GEpp+ JtGs yHxmpEpo yzopF- jsp qzwwzJtyr
EHwpF nly mp opEtIpo qEzx GstF GEpp9
h0 ’c( ˆ T’c0 > =,%(
h= ’c( ˆ T’c0 ≥ =,%(
h2 ’c( ˆ T’c0 ≥ =,%( ± T’c2 ∈ ·i|(
’%[-%?(
h3 ’c( ˆ T’c0 ≥ =,%( ± T’c2 ∈ ·XW |(
h4 ’c( ˆ T’c0 ≥ =,%( ± T’c2 ∈ ·i|( ± T’c6 > ?,4(
h5 ’c( ˆ T’c0 ≥ =,%( ± T’c2 ∈ ·i|( ± T’c6 ≥ ?,4(
L wtyplE pKClyFtzy ty EHwpF %+ ?+ 4 lyo [ tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp GEpp tGFpwq

’PKpEntFp %[-“(: spynp ’%[-%?( tF ly zIpE,nzxCwpGp mlFtF qzE Gsp GEpp-
QzE plns GEpp jx ty ly pyFpxmwp H + Jp nly nzyFGEHnG tGF xtyt!pyFpxmwp
x
zq EHwpF HER p + lyo Gspy nzxmtyp Gspx lww Gz qzEx l wlErpE pyFpxmwp
X
⋃
x
Hhv P ˆ Hhv P, ’%[-%4(
xˆ0
jstF tF Gspy GEplGpo wtvp lyA zGspE pyFpxmwp+ lyo CzFG!CEznpFFpo Itl Gsp
wlFFz zE FtxtwlE EprHwlEtBpo CEznpoHEp-
jspEp lEp FpIpElw loIlyGlrpF Gz GstF lCCEzlns zq opEtItyr EHwpF qEzx Gsp
xzEp nzxCwpK GEppF9
| jsp FClnp zq xzopwF tF pywlErpo+ lyo nly wplo Gz txCEzIpo CpEqzE!
xlynp-
%[-“ plEytyr PyFpxmwpF [=“
1.3
1.2
Mean Squared Error
1.1
1.0
0.9
Rules Rules + Linear
QTRIFD 05W0.W cply FDHlEpo pEEzE qzE EHwp pyFpxmwpF+ HFtyr =/ EplwtBlGtzyF
zq Gsp FtxHwlGtzy pKlxCwp ’%”-%“(-
| hHwpF lEp plFtpE Gz tyGpECEpG Gsly GEppF+ Fz GspEp tF Gsp CzGpyGtlw qzE
l FtxCwt¨po xzopw-
| TG tF zqGpy ylGHElw Gz lHrxpyG H ER p mA tynwHotyr plns IlEtlmwp cH

FpClElGpwA lF Jpww+ GsHF lwwzJtyr Gsp pyFpxmwp Gz xzopw wtyplE qHyn!
GtzyF Jpww-
QEtpoxly lyo fzCpFnH ’=$$]( opxzyFGElGp Gsp CzJpE zq GstF CEznpoHEp zy l

yHxmpE zq twwHFGElGtIp pKlxCwpF+ tynwHotyr Gsp FtxHwlGtzy pKlxCwp ’%[-%“(-
QtrHEp %[-%$ FszJF mzKCwzGF zq Gsp xply!FDHlEpo pEEzE qEzx Gsp GEHp xzopw
qzE GJpyGA EplwtBlGtzyF qEzx GstF xzopw- jsp xzopwF JpEp lww ¨G HFtyr Gsp
hHwpDtG FzqGJlEp+ lIltwlmwp zy Gsp Pi szxpClrp˜ + Jstns EHyF ty ly lHGz!
xlGtn xzop-
Zy Gsp Flxp GEltytyr FpG lF HFpo ty QtrHEp %[-]+ Gsp EHwp mlFpo xzopw
lnstpIpo l xply!FDHlEpo pEEzE zq %-$[- LwGszHrs FwtrsGwA JzEFp Gsly Gsp
mpFG lnstpIpo ty GslG ¨rHEp+ Gsp EpFHwGF lEp yzG nzxClElmwp mpnlHFp nEzFF!
IlwtolGtzy JlF HFpo spEp Gz FpwpnG Gsp ÿlw xzopw-
MtmwtzrElCstn dzGpF
LF yzGpo ty Gsp tyGEzoHnGtzy+ xlyA zq Gsp ypJ xpGszoF ty xlnstyp wplEytyr
slIp mppy oHmmpo ˜pyFpxmwp˙ xpGszoF- jspFp tynwHop ypHElw ypGJzEvF
mzzFGtyr+ mlrrtyr lyo Elyozx qzEpFGF: OtpGGpEtns ’=$$$l( rtIpF l FHEIpA zq
GEpp!mlFpo pyFpxmwp xpGszoF- YpHElw ypGJzEvF ’NslCGpE %%( lEp CpEslCF
xzEp opFpEItyr zq Gsp ylxp+ Ftynp GspA FtxHwGlypzHFwA wplEy Gsp ClElxpGpEF
2 Pi szxpClrp9 vvv!Fhlh-FhlyOzEo-poS.Pwpaihlh plEy

[=? %[- PyFpxmwp plEytyr
zq Gsp stoopy HytGF ’mlFtF qHynGtzyF(+ lwzyr JtGs szJ Gz nzxmtyp Gspx-
MtFszC ’=$$[( otFnHFFpF ypHElw ypGJzEvF ty Fzxp opGltw+ lwzyr JtGs Gsp
MlApFtly CpEFCpnGtIp ’XlnVlA+ %––=: Yplw+ %––[(- iHCCzEG IpnGzE xlnstypF
’NslCGpE %=( nly lwFz mp EprlEopo lF ly pyFpxmwp xpGszo: GspA CpEqzEx
= EprHwlEtBpo xzopw ¨GGtyr ty strs!otxpyFtzylw qplGHEp FClnpF- MzzFGtyr
lyo wlFFz pKCwztG FClEFtGA GsEzHrs 0 EprHwlEtBlGtzy Gz zIpEnzxp Gsp strs!
otxpyFtzylwtGA+ Jstwp iaXF EpwA zy Gsp ˜vpEypw GEtnv˙ nslElnGpEtFGtn zq =
EprHwlEtBlGtzy-
N4-$ ’gHtywly+ =$$?( tF l nzxxpEntlw GEpp lyo EHwp rpypElGtzy Clnvlrp+
JtGs Fzxp rzlwF ty nzxxzy JtGs hiwpqtR-
jspEp tF l IlFG lyo IlEtpo wtGpElGHEp zqGpy EpqpEEpo Gz lF ñzxmtytyr nwlF!
Ft¨pEF˙ Jstns lmzHyoF ty lo!szn FnspxpF qzE xtKtyr xpGszoF zq otΓpEpyG
GACpF Gz lnstpIp mpGGpE CpEqzExlynp- QzE l CEtyntCwpo lCCEzlns+ Fpp VtGGwpE
pG lw- ’%––](-
PKpEntFpF
PK- %[-% OpFnEtmp pKlnGwA szJ Gz rpypElGp Gsp mwznv nzEEpwlGpo olGl HFpo
ty Gsp FtxHwlGtzy ty ipnGtzy %[-=-“-
PK- %[-= pG α’G( ∈ ThC mp l CtpnpJtFp!otΓpEpyGtlmwp lyo nzyGtyHzHF nzpq!

¨ntpyG CEz¨wp+ JtGs α’$( ˆ $- jsp 0 lEn!wpyrGs zq α qEzx Gtxp $ Gz G tF
opÿpo mA ∫ G
Λ’G( ˆ Kα’G(K
5 0 oG, ’%[-%[(
$
iszJ GslG Λ’G( ≥ Kα’G(K0 + JtGs pDHlwtGA tΓ α’G( tF xzyzGzyp-
PK- %[-“ iszJ GslG ¨GGtyr l wtyplE EprEpFFtzy xzopw HFtyr EHwpF %+ ?+ 4 lyo
[ ty pDHlGtzy ’%[-%?( rtIpF Gsp Flxp ¨G lF Gsp EprEpFFtzy GEpp nzEEpFCzyotyr
Gz GstF GEpp- iszJ Gsp Flxp tF GEHp qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ tq l wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy
xzopw tF ¨G-
PK- %[-? fEzrElx lyo EHy Gsp FtxHwlGtzy FGHoA opFnEtmpo ty QtrHEp %[-=-
jstF tF Clrp [=4
%fi
kyotEpnGpo RElCstnlw czopwF
0fi-0 TyGEzoHnGtzy
L rElCs nzyFtFGF zq l FpG zq IpEGtnpF ’yzopF(+ lwzyr JtGs l FpG zq porpF uzty!
tyr Fzxp CltEF zq Gsp IpEGtnpF- Ty rElCstnlw xzopwF+ plns IpEGpK EpCEpFpyGF
l Elyozx IlEtlmwp+ lyo Gsp rElCs rtIpF l ItFHlw JlA zq HyopEFGlyotyr Gsp
uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp pyGtEp FpG zq Elyozx IlEtlmwpF- jspA nly mp HFp!
qHw qzE ptGspE HyFHCpEItFpo zE FHCpEItFpo wplEytyr- Ty ly HyotEpnGpo rElCs+
Gsp porpF slIp yz otEpnGtzylw lEEzJF- bp EpFGEtnG zHE otFnHFFtzy Gz Hyot!
EpnGpo rElCstnlw xzopwF+ lwFz vyzJy lF XlEvzI Elyozx ¨pwoF zE XlEvzI
ypGJzEvF- Ty GspFp rElCsF+ Gsp lmFpynp zq ly porp mpGJppy GJz IpEGtnpF slF
l FCpntlw xplytyr9 Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr Elyozx IlEtlmwpF lEp nzyotGtzylwwA
tyopCpyopyG+ rtIpy Gsp zGspE IlEtlmwpF-
QtrHEp %fi-% FszJF ly pKlxCwp zq l rElCstnlw xzopw qzE l 7zJ!nAGzxpGEA
olGlFpG JtGs C ˆ %% CEzGptyF xplFHEpo zy Y ˆ fi?[[ npwwF+ qEzx ilnsF
pG lw- ’=$$“(- Plns IpEGpK ty Gsp rElCs nzEEpFCzyoF Gz Gsp Eplw!IlwHpo pK!
CEpFFtzy wpIpw zq l CEzGpty- jsp ypGJzEv FGEHnGHEp JlF pFGtxlGpo lFFHxtyr
l xHwGtIlEtlGp RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy+ HFtyr Gsp rElCstnlw wlFFz CEznpoHEp
otFnHFFpo wlGpE ty GstF nslCGpE-
iClEFp rElCsF slIp l EpwlGtIpwA Fxlww yHxmpE zq porpF+ lyo lEp nzyIpytpyG
qzE tyGpECEpGlGtzy- jspA lEp HFpqHw ty l IlEtpGA zq ozxltyF+ tynwHotyr rp!
yzxtnF lyo CEzGpzxtnF+ JspEp GspA CEzItop EzHrs xzopwF zq npww ClGsJlAF-
XHns JzEv slF mppy ozyp ty opÿtyr lyo HyopEFGlyotyr Gsp FGEHnGHEp zq
rElCstnlw xzopwF: Fpp Gsp MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF qzE EpqpEpynpF-
[=[ %fi- kyotEpnGpo RElCstnlw czopwF
Raf
Mek Jnk
Plcg P38
PIP2 PKC
PIP3 PKA
Erk Akt
QTRIFD 06W0W PKlxCwp zq l FClEFp HyotEpnGpo rElCs+ pFGtxlGpo qEzx l 7zJ

nAGzxpGEA olGlFpG+ JtGs C ˆ %% CEzGptyF xplFHEpo zy Y ˆ fi?[[ npwwF- jsp ypG,
JzEv FGEHnGHEp JlF pFGtxlGpo HFtyr Gsp rElCstnlw wlFFz CEznpoHEp otFnHFFpo ty GstF
nslCGpE-
LF Jp Jtww Fpp+ Gsp porpF ty l rElCs lEp ClElxpGEtBpo mA IlwHpF zE Cz,

GpyGtlwF GslG pynzop Gsp FGEpyrGs zq Gsp nzyotGtzylw opCpyopynp mpGJppy
Gsp Elyozx IlEtlmwpF lG Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr IpEGtnpF- jsp xlty nslwwpyrpF ty
JzEvtyr JtGs rElCstnlw xzopwF lEp xzopw FpwpnGtzy ’nszzFtyr Gsp FGEHnGHEp
zq Gsp rElCs(+ pFGtxlGtzy zq Gsp porp ClElxpGpEF qEzx olGl+ lyo nzxCH!
GlGtzy zq xlErtylw IpEGpK CEzmlmtwtGtpF lyo pKCpnGlGtzyF+ qEzx GsptE uztyG
otFGEtmHGtzy- jsp wlFG GJz GlFvF lEp FzxpGtxpF nlwwpo wplEytyr lyo tyqpEpynp
ty Gsp nzxCHGpE Fntpynp wtGpElGHEp-
bp oz yzG lGGpxCG l nzxCEpspyFtIp GEplGxpyG zq GstF tyGpEpFGtyr lEpl-
TyFGplo+ Jp tyGEzoHnp Fzxp mlFtn nzynpCGF+ lyo Gspy otFnHFF l qpJ Ftx!
Cwp xpGszoF qzE pFGtxlGtzy zq Gsp ClElxpGpEF lyo FGEHnGHEp zq HyotEpnGpo
rElCstnlw xzopwF: xpGszoF GslG EpwlGp Gz Gsp GpnsytDHpF lwEploA otFnHFFpo
ty GstF mzzv- jsp pFGtxlGtzy lCCEzlnspF GslG Jp CEpFpyG qzE nzyGtyHzHF
lyo otFnEpGp!IlwHpo IpEGtnpF lEp otΓpEpyG+ Fz Jp GEplG Gspx FpClElGpwA- ipn!
GtzyF %fi-“-% lyo %fi-“-= xlA mp zq ClEGtnHwlE tyGpEpFG+ lF GspA opFnEtmp ypJ+
EprEpFFtzy!mlFpo CEznpoHEpF qzE pFGtxlGtyr rElCstnlw xzopwF-
jspEp tF l wlErp lyo lnGtIp wtGpElGHEp zy otEpnGpo rElCstnlw xzopwF zE
MlApFtly ypGJzEvF: GspFp lEp rElCstnlw xzopwF ty Jstns Gsp porpF slIp
otEpnGtzylw lEEzJF ’mHG yz otEpnGpo nAnwpF(- OtEpnGpo rElCstnlw xzopwF EpC!
EpFpyG CEzmlmtwtGA otFGEtmHGtzyF GslG nly mp qlnGzEpo tyGz CEzoHnGF zq nzyot!
Gtzylw otFGEtmHGtzyF+ lyo slIp Gsp CzGpyGtlw qzE nlHFlw tyGpECEpGlGtzyF- bp
EpqpE Gsp EplopE Gz blFFpExly ’=$$?( qzE l mEtpq zIpEItpJ zq mzGs Hyot!
EpnGpo lyo otEpnGpo rElCsF: Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy qzwwzJF nwzFpwA stF NslCGpE %]-
%fi-= clEvzI RElCsF lyo jsptE fEzCpEGtpF [=fi
d b
d
c e c e
’l( ’m(
d e
c d e b
c b
’n( ’o(
QTRIFD 06W1W PKlxCwpF zq HyotEpnGpo rElCstnlw xzopwF zE clEvzI ypGJzEvF-
Plns yzop zE IpEGpK EpCEpFpyGF l Elyozx IlEtlmwp+ lyo Gsp wlnv zq ly porp mpGJppy
GJz yzopF tyotnlGpF nzyotGtzylw tyopCpyopynp- QzE pKlxCwp+ ty rElCs ’l(+ c lyo
e lEp nzyotGtzylwwA tyopCpyopyG+ rtIpy d - Ty rElCs ’m(+ e tF tyopCpyopyG zq plns
zq c+ d + lyo b -
L wzyrpE wtFG zq HFpqHw EpqpEpynpF tF rtIpy ty Gsp MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF zy

Clrp [?4-
0fi-1 clEvzI RElCsF lyo jsptE fEzCpEGtpF

Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp otFnHFF Gsp mlFtn CEzCpEGtpF zq rElCsF lF xzopwF qzE Gsp
uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy zq l FpG zq Elyozx IlEtlmwpF- bp opqpE otFnHFFtzy zq ’l(
ClElxpGEtBlGtzy lyo pFGtxlGtzy zq Gsp porp ClElxpGpEF qEzx olGl+ lyo ’m(
pFGtxlGtzy zq Gsp GzCzwzrA zq l rElCs+ Gz wlGpE FpnGtzyF-
QtrHEp %fi-= FszJF qzHE pKlxCwpF zq HyotEpnGpo rElCsF- L rElCs Q nzyFtFGF
zq l CltE ’aW P(+ JspEp a tF l FpG zq IpEGtnpF lyo P Gsp FpG zq porpF ’opÿpo
mA CltEF zq IpEGtnpF(- jJz IpEGtnpF c lyo d lEp nlwwpo loulnpyG tq GspEp
tF l porp uztytyr Gspx: GstF tF opyzGpo mA c ∼ d - L ClGs c0 W c= W , , , W cy
tF l FpG zq IpEGtnpF GslG lEp uztypo+ GslG tF ct}0 ∼ ct qzE t ˆ =W , , , W y- L
nzxCwpGp rElCs tF l rElCs JtGs pIpEA CltE zq IpEGtnpF uztypo mA ly porp-
L FHmrElCs k ∈ a tF l FHmFpG zq IpEGtnpF GzrpGspE JtGs GsptE porpF- QzE
pKlxCwp+ ’cW dW e( ty QtrHEp %fi-=’l( qzEx l ClGs mHG yzG l nzxCwpGp rElCs-
iHCCzFp GslG Jp slIp l rElCs Q JszFp IpEGpK FpG a EpCEpFpyGF l FpG zq
Elyozx IlEtlmwpF slItyr uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy f - Ty l XlEvzI rElCs Q+ Gsp
lmFpynp zq ly porp txCwtpF GslG Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr Elyozx IlEtlmwpF lEp
nzyotGtzylwwA tyopCpyopyG rtIpy Gsp IlEtlmwpF lG Gsp zGspE IpEGtnpF- jstF tF
pKCEpFFpo JtGs Gsp qzwwzJtyr yzGlGtzy9
[=] %fi- kyotEpnGpo RElCstnlw czopwF
Yz porp uztytyr c lyo d ⇐⇒ c ⊥ d KEpFG ’%fi-%(
JspEp ˜EpFG˙ EpqpEF Gz lww zq Gsp zGspE IpEGtnpF ty Gsp rElCs- QzE pKlxCwp
ty QtrHEp %fi-=’l( c ⊥ eKd - jspFp lEp vyzJy lF Gsp CltEJtFp XlEvzI
tyopCpyopyntpF zq Q-
Tq LW M lyo N lEp FHmrElCsF+ Gspy N tF Flto Gz FpClElGp L lyo M tq pIpEA
ClGs mpGJppy L lyo M tyGpEFpnGF l yzop ty N- QzE pKlxCwp+ d FpClElGpF
c lyo e ty QtrHEpF %fi-=’l( lyo ’o(+ lyo e FpClElGpF d lyo b ty ’o(- Ty
QtrHEp %fi-=’m( e tF yzG nzyypnGpo Gz cW dW b Fz Jp FlA GslG Gsp GJz FpGF
lEp FpClElGpo mA Gsp pxCGA FpG- Ty QtrHEp %fi-=’n(+ N ˆ ·cW e• FpClElGpF
d lyo b -
ipClElGzEF slIp Gsp ytnp CEzCpEGA GslG GspA mEplv Gsp rElCs tyGz nzy!
otGtzylwwA tyopCpyopyG CtpnpF- iCpnt¨nlwwA+ ty l XlEvzI rElCs Q JtGs FHm!
rElCsF LW M lyo N+
tq N FpClElGpF L lyo M Gspy L ⊥ MKN, ’%fi-=(
jspFp lEp vyzJy lF Gsp rwzmlw XlEvzI CEzCpEGtpF zq Q- TG GHEyF zHG GslG Gsp
CltEJtFp lyo rwzmlw XlEvzI CEzCpEGtpF zq l rElCs lEp pDHtIlwpyG ’qzE rElCsF
JtGs CzFtGtIp otFGEtmHGtzyF(- jslG tF+ Gsp FpG zq rElCsF JtGs lFFzntlGpo CEzm!
lmtwtGA otFGEtmHGtzyF GslG FlGtFqA Gsp CltEJtFp XlEvzI tyopCpyopyntpF lyo
rwzmlw XlEvzI lFFHxCGtzyF lEp Gsp Flxp- jstF EpFHwG tF HFpqHw qzE tyqpEEtyr
rwzmlw tyopCpyopynp EpwlGtzyF qEzx FtxCwp CltEJtFp CEzCpEGtpF- QzE pKlxCwp
ty QtrHEp %fi-=’o( c ⊥ eK·dW b • Ftynp tG tF l XlEvzI rElCs lyo GspEp tF yz
wtyv uztytyr c lyo e- MHG d lwFz FpClElGpF c qEzx e lyo b lyo spynp mA
Gsp rwzmlw XlEvzI lFFHxCGtzy Jp nzynwHop GslG c ⊥ eKd lyo c ⊥ b Kd -
itxtwlEwA Jp slIp d ⊥ b Ke-
jsp rwzmlw XlEvzI CEzCpEGA lwwzJF HF Gz opnzxCzFp rElCsF tyGz FxlwwpE
xzEp xlylrplmwp CtpnpF lyo GsHF wploF Gz pFFpyGtlw FtxCwt¨nlGtzyF ty nzx!
CHGlGtzy lyo tyGpECEpGlGtzy- QzE GstF CHECzFp Jp FpClElGp Gsp rElCs tyGz
nwtDHpF- L nwtDHp tF l nzxCwpGp FHmrElCs1 l FpG zq IpEGtnpF GslG lEp lww
loulnpyG Gz zyp lyzGspE: tG tF nlwwpo xlKtxlw tq tG tF l nwtDHp lyo yz zGspE
IpEGtnpF nly mp loopo Gz tG lyo FGtww Atpwo l nwtDHp- jsp xlKtxlw nwtDHpF qzE
Gsp rElCsF zq QtrHEp %fi-= lEp
’l( ·cW d •W ·dW e•+
’m( ·cW dW b •W ·e•+
’n( ·cW d •W ·dW e•W ·eW b •W ·cW b •+ lyo
’o( ·cW d •W ·dW e•W ·eW b •-
LwGszHrs Gsp qzwwzJtyr lCCwtpF Gz mzGs nzyGtyHzHF lyo otFnEpGp otFGEt!

mHGtzyF+ xHns zq Gsp opIpwzCxpyG slF mppy qzE Gsp wlGGpE- L CEzmlmtwtGA
opyFtGA qHynGtzy q zIpE l XlEvzI rElCs Q nly mp nly EpCEpFpyGpo lF
%fi-= clEvzI RElCsF lyo jsptE fEzCpEGtpF [=–
% ∏
q ’K( ˆ µN ’KN ( ’%fi-“(
e
N∈N
JspEp N tF Gsp FpG zq xlKtxlw nwtDHpF+ lyo Gsp CzFtGtIp qHynGtzyF µN ’±( lEp
nlwwpo nwtDHp CzGpyGtlwF- jspFp lEp yzG ty rpypElw opyFtGA qHynGtzyF0 + mHG
ElGspE lEp lffytGtpF GslG nlCGHEp Gsp opCpyopynp ty cN mA FnzEtyr npEGlty
tyFGlynpF KN strspE Gsly zGspEF- jsp DHlyGtGA
∑ ∏
eˆ µN ’KN ( ’%fi-?(
K∈A N∈N
tF Gsp yzExlwtBtyr nzyFGlyG+ lwFz vyzJy lF Gsp ClEGtGtzy qHynGtzy- LwGpEyl!

GtIpwA+ Gsp EpCEpFpyGlGtzy ’%fi-“( txCwtpF l rElCs JtGs tyopCpyopynp CEzC!
pEGtpF opÿpo mA Gsp nwtDHpF ty Gsp CEzoHnG- jstF EpFHwG szwoF qzE XlEvzI
ypGJzEvF Q JtGs CzFtGtIp otFGEtmHGtzyF+ lyo tF vyzJy lF Gsp SlxxpEFwpA,
Nwt;zEo GspzEpx ’SlxxpEFwpA lyo NwtΓzEo+ %–fi%: NwtΓzEo+ %––$(-
XlyA zq Gsp xpGszoF qzE pFGtxlGtzy lyo nzxCHGlGtzy zy rElCsF ËFG op!
nzxCzFp Gsp rElCs tyGz tGF xlKtxlw nwtDHpF- hpwpIlyG DHlyGtGtpF lEp nzx!
CHGpo ty Gsp tyotItoHlw nwtDHpF lyo Gspy lnnHxHwlGpo lnEzFF Gsp pyGtEp
rElCs- L CEzxtypyG pKlxCwp tF Gsp uzty GEpp zE uHynGtzy GEpp lwrzEtGsx qzE
nzxCHGtyr xlErtylw lyo wzJ zEopE CEzmlmtwtGtpF qEzx Gsp uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy
zy l rElCs- OpGltwF nly mp qzHyo ty fplEw ’%–][(+ lHEtGBpy lyo iCtprpw!
slwGpE ’%–]](+ fplEw ’%–]](+ ispyzA lyo islqpE ’%–]](+ UpyFpy pG lw- ’%––$(+
zE VzwwpE lyo QEtpoxly ’=$$fi(-
c e
QTRIFD 06W2W L nzxCwpGp rElCs ozpF yzG HytDHpwA FCpntqA Gsp strspE,zEopE
opCpyopynp FGEHnGHEp ty Gsp uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF-
L rElCstnlw xzopw ozpF yzG lwJlAF HytDHpwA FCpntqA Gsp strspE!zEopE

opCpyopynp FGEHnGHEp zq l uztyG CEzmlmtwtGA otFGEtmHGtzy- NzyFtopE Gsp nzx!
CwpGp GsEpp!yzop rElCs ty QtrHEp %fi-“- TG nzHwo EpCEpFpyG Gsp opCpyopynp
FGEHnGHEp zq ptGspE zq Gsp qzwwzJtyr otFGEtmHGtzyF9
0
q W=( ’KW AW B( ˆ e µ’KW A(µ’KW B(µ’AW B(:
0
’%fi-4(
q W˜( ’KW AW B( ˆ e µ’KW AW B(,
jsp ËFG FCpnt¨pF zywA Fpnzyo zEopE opCpyopynp ’lyo nly mp EpCEpFpyGpo
JtGs qpJpE ClElxpGpEF(- RElCstnlw xzopwF qzE otFnEpGp olGl lEp l FCpntlw
0 Tq Gsp nwtDHpF lEp FpClElGpo) Gspy Gsp CzGpyGtlwF nly mp opyFtGtpF) mHG GstF tF ty rpypElw
yzG Gsp nlFp-

[“/ %fi- kyotEpnGpo RElCstnlw czopwF
nlFp zq wzrwtyplE xzopwF qzE xHwGtJlA nzyGtyrpynA GlmwpF ’MtFszC pG lw-+

%–fi4+ p-r-(: ty GslG wlyrHlrp q W=( tF EpqpEEpo Gz lF Gsp ˜yz Fpnzyo!zEopE
tyGpElnGtzy˙ xzopw-
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’VzwwpE lyo QEtpoxly+ =$$fi(- SpEp GspEp tF l CzGpyGtlw qHynGtzy qzE plns
porp ’CltE zq IlEtlmwpF lF ty q W=( lmzIp(+ lyo lG xzFG Fpnzyo8zEopE tyGpEln!
GtzyF lEp EpCEpFpyGpo- jspFp lEp xzEp ClEFtxzytzHF ty GpExF zq ClElxpGpEF+
plFtpE Gz JzEv JtGs+ lyo rtIp Gsp xtytxlw nzxCwpKtGA txCwtpo mA Gsp rElCs
FGEHnGHEp- jsp xzopwF qzE mzGs nzyGtyHzHF lyo otFnEpGp olGl lEp qHynGtzyF
zq zywA Gsp CltEJtFp xlErtylw otFGEtmHGtzyF zq Gsp IlEtlmwpF EpCEpFpyGpo ty
Gsp porp FpG-
0fi-“ kyotEpnGpo RElCstnlw czopwF qzE NzyGtyHzHF

alEtlmwpF
SpEp Jp nzyFtopE XlEvzI ypGJzEvF JspEp lww Gsp IlEtlmwpF lEp nzyGtyHzHF-
jsp RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy tF lwxzFG lwJlAF HFpo qzE FHns rElCstnlw xzopwF+
mpnlHFp zq tGF nzyIpytpyG lylwAGtnlw CEzCpEGtpF- bp lFFHxp GslG Gsp zmFpEIl!
GtzyF slIp l xHwGtIlEtlGp RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy JtGs xply < lyo nzIlEtlynp
xlGEtK :- itynp Gsp RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy EpCEpFpyGF lG xzFG Fpnzyo!zEopE
EpwlGtzyFstCF+ tG lHGzxlGtnlwwA pynzopF l CltEJtFp XlEvzI rElCs- jsp rElCs
ty QtrHEp %fi-% tF ly pKlxCwp zq l RlHFFtly rElCstnlw xzopw-
jsp RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy slF Gsp CEzCpEGA GslG lww nzyotGtzylw otFGEt!
mHGtzyF lEp lwFz RlHFFtly- jsp tyIpEFp nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK :}0 nzyGltyF
tyqzExlGtzy lmzHG Gsp ClEGtlw nzIlEtlynpF mpGJppy Gsp IlEtlmwpF: GslG tF+
Gsp nzIlEtlynpF mpGJppy CltEF t lyo u+ nzyotGtzypo zy lww zGspE IlEtlmwpF-
Ty ClEGtnHwlE+ tq Gsp tuGs nzxCzypyG zq Θ ˆ :}0 tF BpEz+ Gspy IlEtlmwpF t lyo
u lEp nzyotGtzylwwA tyopCpyopyG+ rtIpy Gsp zGspE IlEtlmwpF ’PKpEntFp %fi-“(-
TG tF tyFGEHnGtIp Gz pKlxtyp Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy zq zyp IlEtlmwp
IpEFHF Gsp EpFG+ JspEp Gsp Ezwp zq Θ tF pKCwtntG- iHCCzFp Jp ClEGtGtzy c ˆ
’eW d ( JspEp e ˆ ’c0 W , , , W cC}0 ( nzyFtFGF zq Gsp ËFG C } % IlEtlmwpF lyo
d ˆ cC tF Gsp wlFG- jspy Jp slIp Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy zq d rtIp e
’XlEotl pG lw-+ %–fi–+ p-r-(
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d Ke ˆ B ∼ Y <d ) ’B } <e (j :}0 j }0
ee σed W σd d } σed :ee σed W ’%fi-[(
JspEp Jp slIp ClEGtGtzypo : lF

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:ˆ j , ’%fi-fi(
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HwlGtzy xHwGtCwp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zq d zy e+ JtGs EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyG
β ˆ :}0ee σed ”Fpp ’=-%[( zy Clrp %–fl- Tq Jp ClEGtGtzy Θ ty Gsp Flxp JlA+
Ftynp :Θ ˆ T FGlyolEo qzExHwlF qzE ClEGtGtzypo tyIpEFpF rtIp
%fi-“ kyotEpnGpo RElCstnlw czopwF qzE NzyGtyHzHF alEtlmwpF [“%
θed ˆ }θd d ± :}0

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j
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bp slIp wplEypo GJz GstyrF spEp9

| jsp opCpyopynp zq d zy e ty ’%fi-[( tF ty Gsp xply GpEx lwzyp- SpEp
Jp Fpp pKCwtntGwA GslG BpEz pwpxpyGF ty β lyo spynp θed xply GslG
Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr pwpxpyGF zq e lEp nzyotGtzylwwA tyopCpyopyG zq d +
rtIpy Gsp EpFG-
| bp nly wplEy lmzHG GstF opCpyopynp FGEHnGHEp GsEzHrs xHwGtCwp wtyplE
EprEpFFtzy-
jsHF Θ nlCGHEpF lww Gsp Fpnzyo!zEopE tyqzExlGtzy ’mzGs FGEHnGHElw lyo
DHlyGtGlGtIp( yppopo Gz opFnEtmp Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy zq plns yzop
rtIpy Gsp EpFG+ lyo tF Gsp Fz!nlwwpo ˜ylGHElw˙ ClElxpGpE qzE Gsp RlHFFtly
rElCstnlw xzopw= -
LyzGspE ’otΓpEpyG( vtyo zq rElCstnlw xzopw tF Gsp nzIlEtlynp rElCs zE Epw,
pIlynp ypGJzEv+ ty Jstns IpEGtnpF lEp nzyypnGpo mA mtotEpnGtzylw porpF tq Gsp
nzIlEtlynp ’ElGspE Gsly Gsp ClEGtlw nzIlEtlynp( mpGJppy Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr
IlEtlmwpF tF yzyBpEz- jspFp lEp CzCHwlE ty rpyzxtnF+ Fpp pFCpntlwwA MHGGp
pG lw- ’=$$$(- jsp yprlGtIp wzr!wtvpwtszzo qEzx GspFp xzopwF tF yzG nzyIpK+
xlvtyr Gsp nzxCHGlGtzyF xzEp nslwwpyrtyr ’NslHosHEt pG lw-+ =$$fi(-
0fi-“-0 PFGtxlGtzy zq Gsp flElxpGpEF Jspy Gsp RElCs

iGEHnGHEp tF VyzJy
RtIpy Fzxp EplwtBlGtzyF zq c+ Jp JzHwo wtvp Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp ClElxpGpEF
zq ly HyotEpnGpo rElCs GslG lCCEzKtxlGpF GsptE uztyG otFGEtmHGtzy- iHCCzFp
ËFG GslG Gsp rElCs tF nzxCwpGp ’qHwwA nzyypnGpo(- bp lFFHxp GslG Jp slIp
Y xHwGtIlEtlGp yzExlw EplwtBlGtzyF Kt W t ˆ %W , , , W Y JtGs CzCHwlGtzy xply
< lyo nzIlEtlynp :- pG
Y
% ∑
iˆ ’Kt } K 3(j
3(’Kt } K ’%fi-%$(
Y tˆ0
mp Gsp pxCtEtnlw nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK+ JtGs K

3 Gsp FlxCwp xply IpnGzE- TryzEtyr
nzyFGlyGF+ Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo zq Gsp olGl nly mp JEtGGpy lF
= jsp otFGEtmHGtzy lEtFtyr qEzx l RlHFFtly rElCstnlw xzopw tF l btFslEG otFGEtmHGtzy-
jstF tF l xpxmpE zq Gsp pKCzypyGtlw qlxtwA) JtGs nlyzytnlw zE 2ylGHElw˙ ClElxpGpE

Θ ˆ x|0 - Tyoppo) Gsp ClEGtlwwA xlKtxtBpo wzr!wtvpwtszzo ’%fi-%%( tF ’HC Gz nzyFGlyGF(
Gsp btFslEG wzr!wtvpwtszzo-
[“= %fi- kyotEpnGpo RElCstnlw czopwF
ℓ’Θ( ˆ wzr opG Θ } GElnp’iΘ(, ’%fi-%%(

Ty ’%fi-%%( Jp slIp ClEGtlwwA xlKtxtBpo JtGs EpFCpnG Gz Gsp xply ClElxpGpE
<- jsp DHlyGtGA }ℓ’Θ( tF l nzyIpK qHynGtzy zq Θ- TG tF plFA Gz FszJ GslG
Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp zq : tF FtxCwA i-
YzJ Gz xlvp Gsp rElCs xzEp HFpqHw ’pFCpntlwwA ty strs!otxpyFtzylw FpG!
GtyrF( wpG&F lFFHxp GslG Fzxp zq Gsp porpF lEp xtFFtyr: qzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp
porp mpGJppy fTf1 lyo PEv tF zyp zq FpIpElw xtFFtyr ty QtrHEp %fi-%- LF Jp
slIp Fppy+ qzE Gsp RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy GstF txCwtpF GslG Gsp nzEEpFCzyo!
tyr pyGEtpF zq Θ ˆ :}0 lEp BpEz- Spynp Jp yzJ JzHwo wtvp Gz xlKtxtBp
’%fi-%%( HyopE Gsp nzyFGEltyGF GslG Fzxp CEp!opÿpo FHmFpG zq Gsp ClElxp!
GpEF lEp BpEz- jstF tF ly pDHlwtGA!nzyFGEltypo nzyIpK zCGtxtBlGtzy CEzmwpx+
lyo l yHxmpE zq xpGszoF slIp mppy CEzCzFpo qzE FzwItyr tG+ ty ClEGtnHwlE
Gsp tGpElGtIp CEzCzEGtzylw ¨GGtyr CEznpoHEp ’iCppo lyo VttIpEt+ %–][(- jstF
lyo zGspE xpGszoF lEp FHxxlEtBpo qzE pKlxCwp ty bstGGlvpE ’%––$( lyo
lHEtGBpy ’%––[(- jspFp xpGszoF pKCwztG Gsp FtxCwt¨nlGtzyF GslG lEtFp qEzx
opnzxCzFtyr Gsp rElCs tyGz tGF xlKtxlw nwtDHpF+ lF opFnEtmpo ty Gsp CEpIt!
zHF FpnGtzy- SpEp Jp zHGwtyp l FtxCwp lwGpEylGp lCCEzlns+ GslG pKCwztGF Gsp
FClEFtGA ty l otΓpEpyG JlA- jsp qEHtGF zq GstF lCCEzlns Jtww mpnzxp lCClEpyG
wlGpE Jspy Jp otFnHFF Gsp CEzmwpx zq pFGtxlGtzy zq Gsp rElCs FGEHnGHEp-
jsp topl tF mlFpo zy wtyplE EprEpFFtzy+ lF tyFCtEpo mA ’%fi-[( lyo ’%fi-–(-
Ty ClEGtnHwlE+ FHCCzFp GslG Jp JlyG Gz pFGtxlGp Gsp porp ClElxpGpEF θtH qzE
Gsp IpEGtnpF GslG lEp uztypo Gz l rtIpy IpEGpK t+ EpFGEtnGtyr GszFp GslG lEp yzG
uztypo Gz mp BpEz- jspy tG JzHwo Fppx GslG Gsp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zq Gsp yzop
t IlwHpF zy Gsp zGspE EpwpIlyG IpEGtnpF xtrsG CEzItop l EplFzylmwp pFGtxlGp-
MHG GstF tryzEpF Gsp opCpyopynp FGEHnGHEp lxzyr Gsp CEpotnGzEF ty GstF
EprEpFFtzy- TG GHEyF zHG GslG tq tyFGplo Jp HFp zHE nHEEpyG ’xzopw!mlFpo(
pFGtxlGp zq Gsp nEzFF!CEzoHnG xlGEtK zq Gsp CEpotnGzEF Jspy Jp CpEqzEx
zHE EprEpFFtzyF+ GstF rtIpF Gsp nzEEpnG FzwHGtzyF lyo FzwIpF Gsp nzyFGEltypo
xlKtxHx!wtvpwtszzo CEzmwpx pKlnGwA- bp yzJ rtIp opGltwF-
jz nzyFGElty Gsp wzr!wtvpwtszzo ’%fi-%%(+ Jp loo lrElyrp nzyFGlyGF qzE
lww xtFFtyr porpF
∑
ℓN ’Θ( ˆ wzr opG Θ } GElnp’iΘ( } γHv θHv , ’%fi-%=(
WHWv(′∈P
jsp rElotpyG pDHlGtzy qzE xlKtxtBtyr ’%fi-%=( nly mp JEtGGpy lF

Θ}0 } i } Γ ˆ .W ’%fi-%“(
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opympErsp+ =$$?+ qzE pKlxCwp+ Clrp [?%(- Γ tF l xlGEtK zq lrElyrp ClElx!
pGpEF JtGs yzyBpEz IlwHpF qzE lww CltEF JtGs porpF lmFpyG-
bp Jtww FszJ szJ Jp nly HFp EprEpFFtzy Gz FzwIp qzE Θ lyo tGF tyIpEFp
b ˆ Θ}0 zyp EzJ lyo nzwHxy lG l Gtxp- QzE FtxCwtntGA wpG&F qznHF zy Gsp
wlFG EzJ lyo nzwHxy- jspy Gsp HCCpE EtrsG mwznv zq pDHlGtzy ’%fi-%“( nly
mp JEtGGpy lF
%fi-“ kyotEpnGpo RElCstnlw czopwF qzE NzyGtyHzHF alEtlmwpF [““
J0= } F0= } γ0= ˆ $, ’%fi-%?(

SpEp Jp slIp ClEGtGtzypo Gsp xlGEtnpF tyGz GJz ClEGF lF ty ’%fi-fi(9 ClEG %
mptyr Gsp ËFG C } % EzJF lyo nzwHxyF+ lyo ClEG = Gsp CGs EzJ lyo nzwHxy-
btGs b lyo tGF tyIpEFp Θ ClEGtGtzypo ty l FtxtwlE qlFstzy+ Jp slIp
9 )9 ) 9 )
b00 J0= Θ00 θ0= T $
j j ˆ , ’%fi-%4(
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jstF txCwtpF
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ˆ b00 β ’%fi-%fi(
JspEp β ˆ }θ0= .θ== lF ty ’%fi-–(- YzJ FHmFGtGHGtyr ’%fi-%fi( tyGz ’%fi-%?(

rtIpF
b00 β } F0= } γ0= ˆ $, ’%fi-%](
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FGEltypo EprEpFFtzy zq cC zy Gsp zGspE CEpotnGzEF+ pKnpCG GslG Gsp zmFpEIpo
xply nEzFF!CEzoHnGF xlGEtK i00 tF EpCwlnpo mA b00 + Gsp nHEEpyG pFGtxlGpo
nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK qEzx Gsp xzopw-
YzJ Jp nly FzwIp ’%fi-%]( mA FtxCwp FHmFpG EprEpFFtzy- iHCCzFp GspEp lEp
C}D yzyBpEz pwpxpyGF ty γ0= 1t-p-+ C}D porpF nzyFGEltypo Gz mp BpEz- jspFp
C } D EzJF nlEEA yz tyqzExlGtzy lyo nly mp EpxzIpo- QHEGspExzEp Jp nly
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D × D FAFGpx zq pDHlGtzyF
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HC Gz l Fnlwp qlnGzE %.θ== + tG tF plFA Gz FszJ GslG
% j
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Γ ty ’%fi-%“( tF BpEz-
jstF wploF Gz Gsp FtxCwp tGpElGtIp CEznpoHEp rtIpy ty LwrzEtGsx %fi-% qzE
pFGtxlGtyr mzGs b — lyo tGF tyIpEFp Θ+
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xtFFtyr porpF-
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CEzmwpx tF yzG C FpClElGp EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpxF+ mHG ElGspE C nzHCwpo CEzm!
wpxF- jsp HFp zq Gsp nzxxzy b ty FGpC ’m(+ ty Cwlnp zq Gsp zmFpEIpo
nEzFF!CEzoHnGF xlGEtK+ nzHCwpF Gsp CEzmwpxF GzrpGspE ty Gsp lCCEzCEtlGp
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[“? %fi- kyotEpnGpo RElCstnlw czopwF
LwrzEtGsx 0fi-0 L Xzot¨po hprEpFFtzy LwrzEtGsx qzE PFGtxlGtzy zq ly

kyotEpnGpo RlHFFtly RElCstnlw Xzopw JtGs VyzJy iGEHnGHEp-
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nslCGpE zy GzCtnF ty rElCstnlw xzopwF GslG EpwlGp Gz xlnstyp wplEytyr- bp
qzHyo GstF ClEGtnHwlEwA HFpqHw qzE tGF otFnHFFtzy zq MzwGBxlyy xlnstypF-
PKpEntFpF
PK- %fi-% QzE Gsp XlEvzI rElCs zq QtrHEp %fi-]+ wtFG lww zq Gsp txCwtpo nzyot!
Gtzylw tyopCpyopynp EpwlGtzyF lyo ÿo Gsp xlKtxlw nwtDHpF-
[?[ %fi- kyotEpnGpo RElCstnlw czopwF
c0
c3
c= c˜
c4
c[
QTRIFD 06W7W
PK- %fi-= NzyFtopE Elyozx IlEtlmwpF c0 W c= W c˜ W c3 - Ty plns zq Gsp qzwwzJtyr

nlFpF oElJ l rElCs GslG slF Gsp rtIpy tyopCpyopynp EpwlGtzyF9
’l( c0 ⊥ c˜ Kc= lyo c= ⊥ c3 Kc˜ -
’m( c0 ⊥ c3 Kc= W c˜ lyo c= ⊥ c3 Kc0 W c˜ -
’n( c0 ⊥ c3 Kc= W c˜ + c0 ⊥ c˜ Kc= W c3 lyo c˜ ⊥ c3 Kc0 W c= -
PK- %fi-“ pG : mp Gsp nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK zq l FpG zq C IlEtlmwpF c- NzyFtopE
Gsp ClEGtlw nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK :l,m ˆ :ll } :lm :}0 mm :ml mpGJppy Gsp GJz
FHmFpGF zq IlEtlmwpF cl ˆ ’c0 W c= ( nzyFtFGtyr zq Gsp ËFG GJz+ lyo cm
Gsp EpFG- jstF tF Gsp nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK mpGJppy GspFp GJz IlEtlmwpF+ lqGpE
wtyplE louHFGxpyG qzE lww Gsp EpFG- Ty Gsp RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy+ GstF tF Gsp
nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK zq Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy zq cl Kcm - jsp ClEGtlw
nzEEpwlGtzy nzpffntpyG ρHvKEpFG mpGJppy Gsp CltE cl nzyotGtzylw zy Gsp EpFG
cm + tF FtxCwA nzxCHGpo qEzx GstF ClEGtlw nzIlEtlynp- Opÿp Θ ˆ :}0 -
%- iszJ GslG :l,m ˆ Θ}0
ll -
=- iszJ GslG tq lyA zΓ!otlrzylw pwpxpyG zq Θ tF BpEz+ Gspy Gsp ClEGtlw

nzEEpwlGtzy nzpffntpyG mpGJppy Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr IlEtlmwpF tF BpEz-
“- iszJ GslG tq Jp GEplG Θ lF tq tG JpEp l nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK+ lyo nzxCHGp
Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr ñzEEpwlGtzy˙ xlGEtK
h ˆ otlr’Θ(}0.= ± Θ ± otlr’Θ(}0.= W ’%fi-?$(
Gspy EHv ˆ }ρHvKEpFG
PK- %fi-? OpyzGp mA
q ’c0 Kc= W c˜ W , , , W cC (
Gsp nzyotGtzylw opyFtGA zq c0 rtIpy c= W , , , W cC - Tq
q ’c0 Kc= W c˜ W , , , W cC ( ˆ q ’c0 Kc˜ W , , , W cC (W
FszJ GslG c0 ⊥ c= Kc˜ W , , , W cC -
PKpEntFpF [?fi
PK- %fi-4 NzyFtopE Gsp FpGHC ty ipnGtzy %fi-?-% JtGs yz xtFFtyr porpF- iszJ
GslG
i00 β } F0= ˆ $
lEp Gsp pFGtxlGtyr pDHlGtzyF qzE Gsp xHwGtCwp EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyGF zq Gsp
wlFG IlEtlmwp zy Gsp EpFG-
— ˆ:
PK- %fi-[ hpnzIpEA zq Θ — }0 qEzx LwrzEtGsx %fi-%- kFp pKCEpFFtzy ’%fi-%[(
Gz opEtIp Gsp FGlyolEo ClEGtGtzypo tyIpEFp pKCEpFFtzyF
}0
θ0= ˆ }b00 J0= θ== ’%fi-?%(
j }0
θ== ˆ %.’J== } J0= b00 J0= (, ’%fi-?=(
itynp β— ˆ b00}0
J0= + FszJ GslG θ—== ˆ %.’J== } J0=
j —
β( lyo θ—0= ˆ }β—θ—== -
— — —
jsHF θ0= tF l FtxCwA EpFnlwtyr zq β mA }θ== -
PK- %fi-fi bEtGp l CEzrElx Gz txCwpxpyG Gsp xzot¨po EprEpFFtzy CEznpoHEp
’%fi-%( qzE ¨GGtyr Gsp RlHFFtly rElCstnlw xzopw JtGs CEp!FCpnt¨po porpF
xtFFtyr- jpFG tG zy Gsp 7zJ nAGzxpGEA olGl qEzx Gsp mzzv JpmFtGp+ HFtyr
Gsp rElCs zq QtrHEp %fi-%-
PK- %fi-]
’l( bEtGp l CEzrElx Gz ¨G Gsp wlFFz HFtyr Gsp nzzEotylGp opFnpyG CEznpoHEp
’%fi-=[(- NzxClEp tGF EpFHwGF Gz GszFp qEzx Gsp wlEF CEzrElx zE Fzxp
zGspE nzyIpK zCGtxtBpE+ Gz nspnv GslG tG tF JzEvtyr nzEEpnGwA-
’m( kFtyr Gsp CEzrElx qEzx ’l(+ JEtGp nzop Gz txCwpxpyG Gsp rElCstnlw
wlFFz lwrzEtGsx ’%fi-=(- LCCwA tG Gz Gsp 7zJ nAGzxpGEA olGl qEzx Gsp
mzzv JpmFtGp- alEA Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpE lyo pKlxtyp Gsp
EpFHwGtyr ypGJzEvF-
PK- %fi-– iHCCzFp GslG Jp slIp l RlHFFtly rElCstnlw xzopw ty Jstns Fzxp
zE lww zq Gsp olGl lG Fzxp IpEGtnpF lEp xtFFtyr-
’l( NzyFtopE Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx qzE l olGlFpG zq Y t-t-o- xHwGtIlEtlGp zm!
FpEIlGtzyF Kt ∈ ThC JtGs xply < lyo nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK :- QzE plns
FlxCwp t+ wpG zt lyo xt tyopK Gsp CEpotnGzEF GslG lEp zmFpEIpo lyo
xtFFtyr+ EpFCpnGtIpwA- iszJ GslG ty Gsp P FGpC+ Gsp zmFpEIlGtzyF lEp
txCHGpo qEzx Gsp nHEEpyG pFGtxlGpF zq < lyo :9
—tWxt ˆ P’KtWxt KKtWzt W θ( ˆ <

K — x Wz ´
— xt ) ´ — }0
zt Wzt ’KtWzt } <
— zt (
t t
’%fi-?“(
Jstwp ty Gsp X FGpC+ < lyo : lEp Ep!pFGtxlGpo qEzx Gsp pxCtEtnlw
xply lyo ’xzot¨po( nzIlEtlynp zq Gsp txCHGpo olGl9
Y
∑
<
—H ˆ K
—tH .Y
tˆ0
[?] %fi- kyotEpnGpo RElCstnlw czopwF
Y
∑
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´ ˆ KtH } <
”’— KtH: } <
—H (’— —H ′ ( ) ntWHH ′ fl.Y ’%fi-??(
tˆ0
— HH ′ tq uW u ′ ∈ xt lyo BpEz zGspEJtFp- PKCwlty Gsp EplFzy

JspEp ntWHH ′ ˆ ´
qzE Gsp nzEEpnGtzy GpEx ntWHH ′ ’ tGGwp lyo hHmty+ =$$=(-
’m( TxCwpxpyG Gsp PX lwrzEtGsx qzE Gsp RlHFFtly rElCstnlw xzopw HFtyr
Gsp xzot¨po EprEpFFtzy CEznpoHEp qEzx PKpEntFp %fi-fi qzE Gsp X!FGpC-
’n( QzE Gsp 7zJ nAGzxpGEA olGl zy Gsp mzzv JpmFtGp+ FpG Gsp olGl qzE Gsp
wlFG CEzGpty kyv ty Gsp ËFG %$$$ zmFpEIlGtzyF Gz xtFFtyr+ ¨G Gsp xzopw
zq QtrHEp %fi-%+ lyo nzxClEp Gsp CEpotnGpo IlwHpF Gz Gsp lnGHlw IlwHpF
qzE kyv- NzxClEp Gsp EpFHwGF Gz GszFp zmGltypo qEzx l EprEpFFtzy zq
kyv zy Gsp zGspE IpEGtnpF JtGs porpF Gz kyv ty QtrHEp %fi-%+ HFtyr zywA
Gsp yzy!xtFFtyr olGl-
PK- %fi-%$ kFtyr l FtxCwp mtylEA rElCstnlw xzopw JtGs uHFG GJz IlEtlmwpF+
FszJ JsA tG tF pFFpyGtlw Gz tynwHop l nzyFGlyG yzop c$ ≡ % ty Gsp xzopw-
PK- %fi-%% iszJ GslG Gsp TFtyr xzopw ’%fi-=]( ’%fi-=]( qzE Gsp uztyG CEzmlmtwt!
GtpF ty l otFnEpGp rElCstnlw xzopw txCwtpF GslG Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzyF
slIp Gsp wzrtFGtn qzEx ’%fi-“$(-
PK- %fi-%= NzyFtopE l fztFFzy EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx JtGs C mtylEA IlEtlmwpF

KtH W u ˆ %W , , , W C lyo EpFCzyFp IlEtlmwp At Jstns xplFHEpF Gsp yHxmpE zq
zmFpEIlGtzyF JtGs CEpotnGzE Kt ∈ ·$W %•C - jsp opFtry tF mlwlynpo+ ty GslG lww
y ˆ =C CzFFtmwp nzxmtylGtzyF lEp xplFHEpo- bp lFFHxp l wzr!wtyplE xzopw
qzE Gsp fztFFzy xply ty plns npww
∑
wzr <’c( ˆ θ$$ ) KtH Ktv θHv W ’%fi-?4(
WHWv(∈P
HFtyr Gsp Flxp yzGlGtzy lF ty ipnGtzy %fi-?-% ’tynwHotyr Gsp nzyFGlyG IlEtlmwp
Kt$ ˆ %{t(- bp lFFHxp Gsp EpFCzyFp tF otFGEtmHGpo lF
p}<WK( <’K(A
fE’d ˆ AKc ˆ K( ˆ , ’%fi-?[(
A,
bEtGp ozJy Gsp nzyotGtzylw wzr!wtvpwtszzo qzE Gsp zmFpEIpo EpFCzyFpF At +
lyo nzxCHGp Gsp rElotpyG-
’l( iszJ GslG Gsp rElotpyG pDHlGtzy qzE θ$$ nzxCHGpF Gsp ClEGtGtzy qHyn!
Gtzy ’%fi-=–(-
’m( iszJ GslG Gsp rElotpyG pDHlGtzyF qzE Gsp EpxltyopE zq Gsp ClElxpGpEF
lEp pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp rElotpyG ’%fi-“?(-
jstF tF Clrp [?–
%]
Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxFfi N ≫ Y
07-0 bspy N tF cHns MtrrpE Gsly Y

Ty GstF nslCGpE Jp otFnHFF CEpotnGtzy CEzmwpxF ty Jstns Gsp yHxmpE zq
qplGHEpF C tF xHns wlErpE Gsly Gsp yHxmpE zq zmFpEIlGtzyF Y + zqGpy JEtGGpy
C ≫ Y - iHns CEzmwpxF slIp mpnzxp zq tynEplFtyr txCzEGlynp+ pFCpntlwwA ty
rpyzxtnF lyo zGspE lEplF zq nzxCHGlGtzylw mtzwzrA- bp Jtww Fpp GslG strs
IlEtlynp lyo zIpE¨GGtyr lEp l xluzE nzynpEy ty GstF FpGGtyr- LF l EpFHwG+
FtxCwp+ strswA EprHwlEtBpo lCCEzlnspF zqGpy mpnzxp Gsp xpGszoF zq nsztnp-
jsp ËFG ClEG zq Gsp nslCGpE qznHFpF zy CEpotnGtzy ty mzGs Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
lyo EprEpFFtzy FpGGtyrF+ Jstwp Gsp Fpnzyo ClEG otFnHFFpF Gsp xzEp mlFtn
CEzmwpx zq qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy lyo lFFpFFxpyG-
jz rpG HF FGlEGpo+ QtrHEp %]-% FHxxlEtBpF l Fxlww FtxHwlGtzy FGHoA GslG
opxzyFGElGpF Gsp ˜wpFF ¨GGtyr tF mpGGpE˙ CEtyntCwp GslG lCCwtpF Jspy C ≫ Y -
QzE plns zq Y ˆ %$$ FlxCwpF+ Jp rpypElGpo C FGlyolEo RlHFFtly qplGHEpF
c JtGs CltEJtFp nzEEpwlGtzy $,=- jsp zHGnzxp d JlF rpypElGpo lnnzEotyr
Gz l wtyplE xzopw
∑C
d ˆ cH βH ) σε ’%]-%(
Hˆ0
JspEp ε JlF rpypElGpo qEzx l FGlyolEo RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzy- QzE plns

olGlFpG+ Gsp FpG zq nzpffntpyGF βH JpEp lwFz rpypElGpo qEzx l FGlyolEo RlHF!
Ftly otFGEtmHGtzy- bp tyIpFGtrlGpo GsEpp nlFpF9 C ˆ =$W %$$W lyo %$$$- jsp
FGlyolEo opItlGtzy σ JlF nszFpy ty plns nlFp Fz GslG Gsp Ftrylw!Gz!yztFp
ElGtz alE”P’d Kc(fl.σ = pDHlwpo =- LF l EpFHwG+ Gsp yHxmpE zq Ftryt¨nlyG Hyt!
[4/ %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
20 features 100 features 1000 features
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
Test Error
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
20 9 2 99 35 7 99 87 43
Effective Degrees of Freedom
QTRIFD 07W0W jpFG,pEEzE EpFHwGF qzE FtxHwlGtzy pKCpEtxpyGF- iszJy lEp mzK,
CwzGF zq Gsp EpwlGtIp GpFG pEEzEF zIpE %// FtxHwlGtzyF+ qzE GsEpp ot;pEpyG IlwHpF
zq C+ Gsp yHxmpE zq qplGHEpF- jsp EpwlGtIp pEEzE tF Gsp GpFG pEEzE otItopo mA Gsp
MlApF pEEzE+ σ = - QEzx wpqG Gz EtrsG+ EpFHwGF lEp FszJy qzE Etorp EprEpFFtzy JtGs
GsEpp ot;pEpyG IlwHpF zq Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpE λ9 /,//%+ %// lyo %///- jsp
’lIpElrp( p;pnGtIp oprEppF zq qEppozx ty Gsp 6G tF tyotnlGpo mpwzJ plns CwzG-
IlEtlGp EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyGF0 JlF –+ ““ lyo ““%+ EpFCpnGtIpwA+ lIpElrpo

zIpE Gsp %$$ FtxHwlGtzy EHyF- jsp C ˆ %$$$ nlFp tF opFtrypo Gz xtxtn Gsp
vtyo zq olGl GslG Jp xtrsG Fpp ty l strs!otxpyFtzylw rpyzxtn zE CEzGpzxtn
olGlFpG+ qzE pKlxCwp-
bp ¨G l Etorp EprEpFFtzy Gz Gsp olGl+ JtGs GsEpp otΓpEpyG IlwHpF qzE Gsp
EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpE λ9 $,$$%+ %$$+ lyo %$$$- bspy λ ˆ $,$$%+ GstF
tF yplEwA Gsp Flxp lF wplFG FDHlEpF EprEpFFtzy+ JtGs l wtGGwp EprHwlEtBlGtzy
uHFG Gz pyFHEp GslG Gsp CEzmwpx tF yzy!FtyrHwlE Jspy C / Y - QtrHEp %]-%
FszJF mzKCwzGF zq Gsp EpwlGtIp GpFG pEEzE lnstpIpo mA Gsp otΓpEpyG pFGtxlGzEF
ty plns FnpylEtz- jsp nzEEpFCzyotyr lIpElrp oprEppF zq qEppozx HFpo ty
plns Etorp!EprEpFFtzy ¨G tF tyotnlGpo ’nzxCHGpo HFtyr qzExHwl ’“-4$( zy
Clrp []= (- jsp oprEppF zq qEppozx tF l xzEp tyGpECEpGlmwp ClElxpGpE Gsly
λ- bp Fpp GslG Etorp EprEpFFtzy JtGs λ ˆ $,$$% ’=$ oq( JtyF Jspy C ˆ =$:
λ ˆ %$$ ’“4 oq( JtyF Jspy C ˆ %$$+ lyo λ ˆ %$$$ ’?“ oq( JtyF Jspy
C ˆ %$$$+
SpEp tF ly pKCwlylGtzy qzE GspFp EpFHwGF- bspy C ˆ =$+ Jp ¨G lww Gsp JlA
lyo Jp nly topyGtqA lF xlyA zq Gsp Ftryt¨nlyG nzpffntpyGF lF CzFFtmwp JtGs
0 bp nlww l EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyG Ftryt¨nlyG tq > R u ≥ =) JspEp >1u tF Gsp pFGtxlGpo

Ru .Fp
’HytIlEtlGp( nzpffntpyG lyo Fp
R u tF tGF pFGtxlGpo FGlyolEo pEEzE-
= gzE l ¨Kpo IlwHp zq Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpE λ) Gsp oprEppF zq qEppozx opCpyoF
zy Gsp zmFpEIpo CEpotnGzE IlwHpF ty plns FtxHwlGtzy- Spynp Jp nzxCHGp Gsp lIpElrp
oprEppF zq qEppozx zIpE FtxHwlGtzyF-
%]-= YplEpFG isEHyvpy NpyGEztoF [4%
wzJ mtlF- bspy C ˆ %$$+ Jp nly topyGtqA Fzxp yzy!BpEz nzpffntpyGF HFtyr
xzopElGp FsEtyvlrp- QtylwwA+ Jspy C ˆ %$$$+ pIpy GszHrs GspEp lEp xlyA
yzyBpEz nzpffntpyGF+ Jp ozy&G slIp l szCp qzE ÿotyr Gspx lyo Jp yppo
Gz FsEtyv lww Gsp JlA ozJy- LF pItopynp zq GstF+ wpG GH ˆ βPH .Fp
P H + JspEp β—H
P H tGF pFGtxlGpo FGlyolEo pEEzE- jspy
tF Gsp Etorp EprEpFFtzy pFGtxlGp lyo Fp
HFtyr Gsp zCGtxlw Etorp ClElxpGpE ty plns zq Gsp GsEpp nlFpF+ Gsp xpotly
IlwHp zq KGH K JlF =-$+ $-[ lyo $-=+ lyo Gsp lIpElrp yHxmpE zq KGH K IlwHpF
pKnppotyr = JlF pDHlw Gz –-]+ %-= lyo $-$-
htorp EprEpFFtzy JtGs λ ˆ $,$$% FHnnpFFqHwwA pKCwztGF Gsp nzEEpwlGtzy ty
Gsp qplGHEpF Jspy C ı Y + mHG nlyyzG oz Fz Jspy C ≫ Y - Ty Gsp wlGGpE nlFp
GspEp tF yzG pyzHrs tyqzExlGtzy ty Gsp EpwlGtIpwA Fxlww yHxmpE zq FlxCwpF
Gz pffntpyGwA pFGtxlGp Gsp strs!otxpyFtzylw nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK- Ty GslG nlFp+
xzEp EprHwlEtBlGtzy wploF Gz FHCpEtzE CEpotnGtzy CpEqzExlynp-
jsHF tG tF yzG FHECEtFtyr GslG Gsp lylwAFtF zq strs!otxpyFtzylw olGl Ep!
DHtEpF ptGspE xzot¨nlGtzy zq CEznpoHEpF opFtrypo qzE Gsp Y / C FnpylEtz+ zE
pyGtEpwA ypJ CEznpoHEpF- Ty GstF nslCGpE Jp otFnHFF pKlxCwpF zq mzGs vtyoF
zq lCCEzlnspF qzE strs otxpyFtzylw nwlFFt¨nlGtzy lyo EprEpFFtzy: GspFp xpGs!
zoF Gpyo Gz EprHwlEtBp DHtGp splItwA+ HFtyr FntpyGt¨n nzyGpKGHlw vyzJwporp
Gz FHrrpFG Gsp lCCEzCEtlGp qzEx qzE GstF EprHwlEtBlGtzy- jsp nslCGpE pyoF
JtGs l otFnHFFtzy zq qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy lyo xHwGtCwp GpFGtyr-
07-1 Otlrzylw typlE OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF lyo

dplEpFG isEHyvpy NpyGEztoF
Rpyp pKCEpFFtzy lEElAF lEp ly txCzEGlyG ypJ GpnsyzwzrA ty mtzwzrA+ lyo
lEp otFnHFFpo ty NslCGpEF % lyo %?- jsp olGl ty zHE ypKG pKlxCwp qzEx
l xlGEtK zq =“$] rpypF ’nzwHxyF( lyo [“ FlxCwpF ’EzJF(+ qEzx l FpG zq
xtnEzlEElA pKCpEtxpyGF- Plns pKCEpFFtzy IlwHp tF l wzr!ElGtz wzr’h.R(- h
tF Gsp lxzHyG zq rpyp!FCpnt¨n hYL ty Gsp GlErpG FlxCwp GslG sAmEtotBpF
Gz l ClEGtnHwlE ’rpyp!FCpnt¨n( FCzG zy Gsp xtnEzlEElA+ lyo R tF Gsp nzEEp!
FCzyotyr lxzHyG zq hYL qEzx l EpqpEpynp FlxCwp- jsp FlxCwpF lEzFp qEzx
Fxlww+ EzHyo mwHp!npww GHxzEF ’ihMNj( qzHyo ty nstwoEpy+ lyo lEp nwlFFt¨po
tyGz qzHE xluzE GACpF9 M ’MHEvtGG wAxCszxl(+ Pbi ’PJtyr&F FlEnzxl(+
YM ’ypHEzmwlFGzxl(+ lyo hXi ’EslmozxAzFlEnzxl(- jspEp tF ly loot!
Gtzylw GpFG olGl FpG zq =$ zmFpEIlGtzyF- bp Jtww yzG rz tyGz Gsp FntpyGt¨n
mlnvrEzHyo spEp-
itynp C ≫ Y + Jp nlyyzG ¨G l qHww wtyplE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF ’ OL( Gz
Gsp olGl: Fzxp FzEG zq EprHwlEtBlGtzy tF yppopo- jsp xpGszo Jp opFnEtmp
spEp tF FtxtwlE Gz Gsp xpGszoF zq ipnGtzy ?-“-%+ mHG JtGs txCzEGlyG xzot¨!
nlGtzyF GslG lnstpIp qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy- jsp FtxCwpFG qzEx zq EprHwlEtBlGtzy
lFFHxpF GslG Gsp qplGHEpF lEp tyopCpyopyG JtGsty plns nwlFF+ GslG tF+ Gsp
JtGsty!nwlFF nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK tF otlrzylw- OpFCtGp Gsp qlnG GslG qplGHEpF
Jtww ElEpwA mp tyopCpyopyG JtGsty l nwlFF+ Jspy C ≫ Y Jp ozy&G slIp
[4= %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
pyzHrs olGl Gz pFGtxlGp GsptE opCpyopyntpF- jsp lFFHxCGtzy zq tyopCpy!

opynp rEplGwA EpoHnpF Gsp yHxmpE zq ClElxpGpEF ty Gsp xzopw lyo zqGpy
EpFHwGF ty ly pΓpnGtIp lyo tyGpECEpGlmwp nwlFFt¨pE-
jsHF Jp nzyFtopE Gsp otlrzylw,nzIlEtlynp OL EHwp qzE nwlFFtqAtyr Gsp
nwlFFpF- jsp otFnEtxtylyG FnzEp ”Fpp ’?-%= zy Clrp %%$fl qzE nwlFF v tF
C
∑
{
’K{H } K
3vH (=
δv ’K ( ˆ } ) = wzr πv , ’%]-=(
Hˆ0
F=H
SpEp K{ ˆ ’K{0 W K{= W , , , W K{C (j tF l IpnGzE zq pKCEpFFtzy IlwHpF qzE l GpFG zm!
FpEIlGtzy+ F(H tF Gsp Czzwpo JtGsty!nwlFF FGlyolEo opItlGtzy zq Gsp uGs rpyp+
lyo K 3vH ˆ t∈Nv KtH .Yv tF Gsp xply zq Gsp Yv IlwHpF qzE rpyp u ty nwlFF
v+ JtGs Nv mptyr Gsp tyopK FpG qzE nwlFF v- bp nlww K 2v ˆ ’3
Kv0 W K 3vC (j
3v= W , , , K
Gsp npyGEzto zq nwlFF v- jsp ËFG ClEG zq ’%]-=( tF FtxCwA Gsp ’yprlGtIp(
FGlyolEotBpo FDHlEpo otFGlynp zq K{ Gz Gsp vGs npyGEzto- jsp(Fpnzyo ClEG
V
tF l nzEEpnGtzy mlFpo zy Gsp nwlFF CEtzE CEzmlmtwtGA πv + JspEp vˆ0 πv ˆ %-
jsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy EHwp tF Gspy
N’K{ ( ˆ ℓ tq δℓ ’K{ ( ˆ xlKv δv ’K{ (, ’%]-“(
bp Fpp GslG Gsp otlrzylw OL nwlFFt¨pE tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz l yplEpFG npyGEzto
nwlFFt¨pE lqGpE lCCEzCEtlGp FGlyolEotBlGtzy- TG tF lwFz l FCpntlw nlFp zq Gsp
yltIp!MlApF nwlFFt¨pE+ lF opFnEtmpo ty ipnGtzy [-[-“- TG lFFHxpF GslG Gsp
qplGHEpF ty plns nwlFF slIp tyopCpyopyG RlHFFtly otFGEtmHGtzyF JtGs Gsp
Flxp IlEtlynp-
jsp otlrzylw OL nwlFFt¨pE tF zqGpy pΓpnGtIp ty strs otxpyFtzylw FpG!
GtyrF- TG tF lwFz nlwwpo Gsp ˜tyopCpyopynp EHwp˙ ty Mtnvpw lyo pItyl ’=$$?(+
Jsz opxzyFGElGp GspzEpGtnlwwA GslG tG Jtww zqGpy zHGCpEqzEx FGlyolEo wty!
plE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF ty strs!otxpyFtzylw CEzmwpxF- SpEp Gsp otlrzylw
OL nwlFFt¨pE Atpwopo Ïp xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy pEEzEF qzE Gsp =$ GpFG FlxCwpF-
Zyp oElJmlnv zq Gsp otlrzylw OL nwlFFt¨pE tF GslG tG HFpF lww zq Gsp qpl!
GHEpF ’rpypF(+ lyo spynp tF yzG nzyIpytpyG qzE tyGpECEpGlGtzy- btGs qHEGspE
EprHwlEtBlGtzy Jp nly oz mpGGpE1mzGs ty GpExF zq GpFG pEEzE lyo tyGpE!
CEpGlmtwtGA-
bp JzHwo wtvp Gz EprHwlEtBp ty l JlA GslG lHGzxlGtnlwwA oEzCF zHG qpl!
GHEpF GslG lEp yzG nzyGEtmHGtyr Gz Gsp nwlFF CEpotnGtzyF- bp nly oz GstF
mA FsEtyvtyr Gsp nwlFFJtFp xply GzJlEo Gsp zIpElww xply+ qzE plns qplGHEp
FpClElGpwA- jsp EpFHwG tF l EprHwlEtBpo IpEFtzy zq Gsp yplEpFG npyGEzto nwlF!
Ft¨pE+ zE pDHtIlwpyGwA l EprHwlEtBpo IpEFtzy zq Gsp otlrzylw!nzIlEtlynp qzEx
zq OL- bp nlww Gsp CEznpoHEp yplEpFG FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF ’YiN(-
jsp FsEtyvlrp CEznpoHEp tF opÿpo lF qzwwzJF- pG
3vH } K
K 3H
ovH ˆ W ’%]-?(
xv ’FH ) F$ (
JspEp K3H tF Gsp zIpElww xply qzE rpyp u+ x=v ˆ %.Yv } %.Y lyo F$ tF l
Fxlww CzFtGtIp nzyFGlyG+ GACtnlwwA nszFpy Gz mp Gsp xpotly zq Gsp FH IlwHpF-
%]-= YplEpFG isEHyvpy NpyGEztoF [4“
(0,0)
QTRIFD 07W1W izqG GsEpFszwotyr qHynGtzy Ftry’K(’VKV } ;() tF FszJy ty zElyrp+

lwzyr JtGs Gsp ?4◦ wtyp ty Epo-
jstF nzyFGlyG rHlEoF lrltyFG wlErp ovH IlwHpF GslG lEtFp qEzx pKCEpFFtzy
IlwHpF yplE BpEz- btGs nzyFGlyG JtGsty!nwlFF IlEtlynp σ = + Gsp IlEtlynp zq
3H ty Gsp yHxpElGzE tF x=v σ = + lyo spynp Gsp qzEx zq Gsp
3vH } K
Gsp nzyGElFG K
FGlyolEotBlGtzy ty Gsp opyzxtylGzE- bp FsEtyv Gsp ovH GzJlEo BpEz HFtyr
FzqG GsEpFszwotyr
o′vH ˆ Ftry’ovH (’KovH K } ∆() : ’%]-4(
Fpp QtrHEp %]-=- SpEp ∆ tF l ClElxpGpE Gz mp opGpExtypo: Jp HFpo %$!qzwo
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy ty Gsp pKlxCwp ’Fpp Gsp GzC Clypw zq QtrHEp %]-?(- Plns
ovH tF EpoHnpo mA ly lxzHyG ∆ ty lmFzwHGp IlwHp+ lyo tF FpG Gz BpEz tq tGF
lmFzwHGp IlwHp tF wpFF Gsly BpEz- jsp FzqG!GsEpFszwotyr qHynGtzy tF FszJy
ty QtrHEp %]-=: Gsp Flxp GsEpFszwotyr tF lCCwtpo Gz JlIpwpG nzpffntpyGF ty
ipnGtzy 4-–- Ly lwGpEylGtIp tF Gz HFp slEo GsEpFszwotyr
o′vH ˆ ovH ± T’KovH K ≥ ∆(: ’%]-[(
Jp CEpqpE FzqG!GsEpFszwotyr+ lF tG tF l FxzzGspE zCpElGtzy lyo GACtnlwwA

JzEvF mpGGpE- jsp FsEHyvpy IpEFtzyF zq K3vH lEp Gspy zmGltypo mA EpIpEFtyr
Gsp GElyFqzExlGtzy ty ’%]-?(9
3′vH ˆ K
K 3H ) xv ’FH ) F$ (o′vH , ’%]-fi(
bp Gspy HFp Gsp FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF K 3′vH ty Cwlnp zq Gsp zEtrtylw K

3vH ty Gsp
otFnEtxtylyG FnzEp ’%]-=(- jsp pFGtxlGzE ’%]-4( nly lwFz mp ItpJpo lF l
wlFFz!FGAwp pFGtxlGzE qzE Gsp nwlFF xplyF ’PKpEntFp %]-=(-
YzGtnp GslG zywA Gsp rpypF GslG slIp l yzyBpEz o′vH qzE lG wplFG zyp zq Gsp
nwlFFpF CwlA l Ezwp ty Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy EHwp+ lyo spynp Gsp IlFG xluzEtGA
zq rpypF nly zqGpy mp otFnlEopo- Ty GstF pKlxCwp+ lww mHG ?“ rpypF JpEp
otFnlEopo+ wplItyr l Fxlww tyGpECEpGlmwp FpG zq rpypF GslG nslElnGpEtBp plns
nwlFF- QtrHEp %]-“ EpCEpFpyGF Gsp rpypF ty l splGxlC-
QtrHEp %]-? ’GzC Clypw( opxzyFGElGpF Gsp pΓpnGtIpypFF zq Gsp FsEtyvlrp-
btGs yz FsEtyvlrp Jp xlvp 4#=$ pEEzEF zy Gsp GpFG olGl+ lyo FpIpElw pEEzEF
[4? %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
zy Gsp GEltytyr lyo Na olGl- jsp FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF lnstpIp BpEz GpFG pE!
EzEF qzE l qltEwA mEzlo mlyo zq IlwHpF qzE ∆- jsp mzGGzx Clypw zq QtrHEp %]-?
FszJF Gsp qzHE npyGEztoF qzE Gsp ihMNj olGl ’rElA(+ EpwlGtIp Gz Gsp zIpElww
npyGEzto- jsp mwHp mlEF lEp FsEHyvpy IpEFtzyF zq GspFp npyGEztoF+ zmGltypo
mA FzqG!GsEpFszwotyr Gsp rElA mlEF+ HFtyr ∆ ˆ ?,“- jsp otFnEtxtylyG FnzEpF
’%]-=( nly mp HFpo Gz nzyFGEHnG nwlFF CEzmlmtwtGA pFGtxlGpF9
0 ∗
p = δv WK (
C—v ’K{ ( ˆ (V 0 ∗
, ’%]-](
= δℓ WK (
ℓˆ0 p
jspFp nly mp HFpo Gz ElGp Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzyF+ zE Gz opntop yzG Gz nwlFFtqA l

ClEGtnHwlE FlxCwp lG lww-
YzGp GslG zGspE qzExF zq qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy nly mp HFpo ty GstF FpGGtyr+
tynwHotyr slEo GsEpFszwotyr- Qly lyo Qly ’=$$]( FszJ GspzEpGtnlwwA Gsp
txCzEGlynp zq nlEEAtyr zHG Fzxp vtyo zq qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy JtGs otlrzylw
wtyplE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF ty strs!otxpyFtzylw CEzmwpxF-
07-“ typlE NwlFFt6pEF UtGs gHloElGtn

hprHwlEtBlGtzy
hlxlFJlxA pG lw- ’=$$%( CEpFpyG l xzEp otffnHwG xtnEzlEElA nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
CEzmwpx+ tyIzwItyr l GEltytyr FpG zq %?? ClGtpyGF JtGs %? otΓpEpyG GACpF zq
nlynpE+ lyo l GpFG FpG zq 4? ClGtpyGF- Rpyp pKCEpFFtzy xplFHEpxpyGF JpEp
lIltwlmwp qzE %[W $[“ rpypF-
jlmwp %]-% FszJF Gsp CEpotnGtzy EpFHwGF qEzx ptrsG otΓpEpyG nwlFFt¨nlGtzy
xpGszoF- jsp olGl qEzx plns ClGtpyG JlF ËFG FGlyolEotBpo Gz slIp xply
$ lyo IlEtlynp %: GstF FppxF Gz txCEzIp CEpotnGtzy lnnHElnA zIpElww GstF
pKlxCwp+ FHrrpFGtyr GslG Gsp ˜FslCp˙ zq plns rpyp!pKCEpFFtzy CEz¨wp tF
txCzEGlyG+ ElGspE Gsly Gsp lmFzwHGp pKCEpFFtzy wpIpwF- Ty plns nlFp+ Gsp
BL EWS NB RMS
QTRIFD 07W2W SplG,xlC zq Gsp nszFpy 3“ rpypF- btGsty plns zq Gsp szEtBzyGlw
ClEGtGtzyF+ Jp slIp zEopEpo Gsp rpypF mA stpElEnstnlw nwHFGpEtyr+ lyo FtxtwlEwA
qzE Gsp FlxCwpF JtGsty plns IpEGtnlw ClEGtGtzy- dpwwzJ EpCEpFpyGF zIpE, lyo mwHp
HyopE,pKCEpFFtzy-
%]-“ typlE NwlFFt6pEF UtGs gHloElGtn hprHwlEtBlGtzy [44
Number of Genes
2308 2059 1223 598 284 159 81 43 23 15 10 5 1
0.8
Training
10−fold CV
Test
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 2 4 6
LaBSAR Bq isEtAulrC ;
BL EWS NB RMS
2000
1500
Gene
1000
500
0
−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Centroids: Average Expression Centered at Overall Centroid
QTRIFD 07W3W ’jzC(9 PEEzE nHEIpF qzE Gsp ihMNj olGl- iszJy lEp Gsp GElty,
tyr+ %/,qzwo nEzFF,IlwtolGtzy+ lyo GpFG xtFnwlFFt6nlGtzy pEEzEF lF Gsp GsEpFszwo
ClElxpGpE ; tF IlEtpo- jsp IlwHp ; ˆ ?,“? tF nszFpy mA Na+ EpFHwGtyr ty l FHm,
FpG zq ?“ FpwpnGpo rpypF- ’MzGGzx(9 QzHE npyGEztoF CEz6wpF zvu qzE Gsp ihMNj
olGl ’rElA(+ EpwlGtIp Gz Gsp zIpElww npyGEzto- Plns npyGEzto slF =“/] nzxCzypyGF+
lyo Jp Fpp nzyFtopElmwp yztFp- jsp mwHp mlEF lEp FsEHyvpy IpEFtzyF z′vu zq GspFp
npyGEztoF+ zmGltypo mA FzqG,GsEpFszwotyr Gsp rElA mlEF+ HFtyr ; ˆ ?,“-
[4[ %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
uLM D 07W0W fEpotnGtzy EpFHwGF qzE xtnEzlEElA olGl JtGs %3 nlynpE nwlFFpF-
cpGszo % tF opFnEtmpo ty ipnGtzy %fl-=- cpGszoF =+ “ lyo ” lEp otFnHFFpo ty ipn,
Gtzy %fl-“+ Jstwp 3+ fi lyo fl lEp otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy %fl-3- cpGszo 4 tF opFnEtmpo ty
ipnGtzy %“-“- jsp pwlFGtn,ypG CpylwtBpo xHwGtyzxtlw ozpF Gsp mpFG zy Gsp GpFG olGl+
mHG Gsp FGlyolEo pEEzE zq plns GpFG,pEEzE pFGtxlGp tF lmzHG “+ Fz FHns nzxClEtFzyF
lEp tynzynwHFtIp-
cpGszoF Na pEEzEF ’iP( jpFG pEEzEF YHxmpE zq

ZHG zq %?? ZHG zq 4? RpypF kFpo
%- YplEpFG FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF “4 ’4-/( %fi [+4=/

=- = ,CpylwtBpo otFnEtxtylyG =4 ’?-%( %= %[+/[“
lylwAFtF
“- iHCCzEG IpnGzE nwlFFt6pE =[ ’?-=( %? %[+/[“
?- lFFz EprEpFFtzy ’zyp IF lww( “/-fi ’%-]( %=-4 %+?=–
4- v,yplEpFG yptrsmzEF ?% ’?-[( =[ %[+/[“
[- = ,CpylwtBpo xHwGtyzxtlw =[ ’?-=( %4 %[+/[“
fi- 0 ,CpylwtBpo xHwGtyzxtlw %fi ’=-]( %“ =[–
]- PwlFGtn,ypG CpylwtBpo == ’“-fi( %%-] “]?
xHwGtyzxtlw
EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpE slF mppy nszFpy Gz xtytxtBp Gsp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy

pEEzE+ lyo Gsp GpFG pEEzE lG GslG IlwHp zq Gsp ClElxpGpE tF FszJy- bspy
xzEp Gsly zyp IlwHp zq Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpE AtpwoF Gsp xtytxlw
nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy pEEzE+ Gsp lIpElrp GpFG pEEzE lG GspFp IlwHpF tF EpCzEGpo-
hOL ’EprHwlEtBpo otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF(+ EprHwlEtBpo xHwGtyzxtlw wzrtFGtn
EprEpFFtzy+ lyo Gsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE xlnstyp lEp xzEp nzxCwpK xpGszoF GslG
GEA Gz pKCwztG xHwGtIlEtlGp tyqzExlGtzy ty Gsp olGl- bp opFnEtmp plns ty
GHEy+ lF Jpww lF l IlEtpGA zq EprHwlEtBlGtzy xpGszoF+ tynwHotyr mzGs 0 lyo
= lyo Fzxp ty mpGJppy-
07-“-0 hprHwlEtBpo OtFnEtxtylyG LylwAFtF

hprHwlEtBpo otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF ’hOL( tF opFnEtmpo ty ipnGtzy ?-“-%- ty!
plE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF tyIzwIpF Gsp tyIpEFtzy zq l C × C JtGsty!nzIlEtlynp
xlGEtK- bspy C ≫ Y + GstF xlGEtK nly mp sHrp+ slF Elyv lG xzFG Y ı C+
lyo spynp tF FtyrHwlE- hOL zIpEnzxpF Gsp FtyrHwlEtGA tFFHpF mA EprHwlEtB!
tyr Gsp JtGsty!nzIlEtlynp pFGtxlGp :-— SpEp Jp HFp l IpEFtzy zq hOL GslG
FsEtyvF :— GzJlEoF tGF otlrzylw9
—
:’γ( — ) ’% } γ(otlr’:(W
ˆ γ: — JtGs γ ∈ ”$W %fl- ’%]-–(
YzGp GslG γ ˆ $ nzEEpFCzyoF Gz otlrzylw OL+ Jstns tF Gsp ˜yz FsEtyvlrp˙

IpEFtzy zq yplEpFG FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF- jsp qzEx zq FsEtyvlrp ty ’%]-–( tF
%]-“ typlE NwlFFt6pEF UtGs gHloElGtn hprHwlEtBlGtzy [4fi
xHns wtvp Etorp EprEpFFtzy ’ipnGtzy “-?-%(+ Jstns FsEtyvF Gsp GzGlw nzIlEtlynp
xlGEtK zq Gsp qplGHEpF GzJlEoF l otlrzylw ’FnlwlE( xlGEtK- Ty qlnG+ ItpJtyr
wtyplE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF lF wtyplE EprEpFFtzy JtGs zCGtxlw FnzEtyr zq Gsp
nlGprzEtnlw EpFCzyFp ”Fpp ’%=-4]( ty ipnGtzy %=-[fl+ Gsp pDHtIlwpynp mpnzxpF
xzEp CEpntFp-
jsp nzxCHGlGtzylw mHEopy zq tyIpEGtyr GstF wlErp C×C xlGEtK tF zIpEnzxp
HFtyr Gsp xpGszoF otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy %]-“-4- jsp IlwHp zq γ JlF nszFpy
mA nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy ty wtyp = zq jlmwp %]-%: lww IlwHpF zq γ ∈ ’$,$$=W $,44$(
rlIp Gsp Flxp Na lyo GpFG pEEzE- QHEGspE opIpwzCxpyG zq hOL+ tynwHotyr
FsEtyvlrp zq Gsp npyGEztoF ty lootGtzy Gz Gsp nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK+ nly mp
qzHyo ty RHz pG lw- ’=$$[(-
07-“-1 zrtFGtn hprEpFFtzy JtGs gHloElGtn hprHwlEtBlGtzy

zrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy ’ipnGtzy ?-?( nly mp xzot¨po ty l FtxtwlE JlA+ Gz oplw
JtGs Gsp C ≫ Y nlFp- btGs V nwlFFpF+ Jp HFp l FAxxpGEtn IpEFtzy zq Gsp
xHwGtnwlFF wzrtFGtn xzopw ’?-%fi( zy Clrp %%–9
pKC’βv$ ) Kj βv (
fE’R ˆ vKc ˆ K( ˆ (V , ’%]-%$(
j
ℓˆ0 pKC’βℓ$ ) K βℓ (
jstF slF V nzpffntpyG IpnGzEF zq wzr!zooF ClElxpGpEF β0 W β= W , , , W βV - bp

EprHwlEtBp Gsp ¨GGtyr mA xlKtxtBtyr Gsp CpylwtBpo wzr!wtvpwtszzo
CY V
D
∑ λ∑ =
xlK wzr fE’rt KKt ( } KKβv KK= , ’%]-%%(
·β$v Wβv |a
0 tˆ0
=
vˆ0
jstF EprHwlEtBlGtzy lHGzxlGtnlwwA

(V EpFzwIpF Gsp EpoHyolynA ty Gsp ClElxpG!
EtBlGtzy+ lyo qzEnpF vˆ0 β—vH ˆ $W u ˆ %W , , , W C ’PKpEntFp %]-“(- YzGp GslG
Gsp nzyFGlyG GpExF βv$ lEp yzG EprHwlEtBpo ’lyo Fz zyp FszHwo mp FpG Gz
BpEz(- jsp EpFHwGtyr zCGtxtBlGtzy CEzmwpx tF nzyIpK+ lyo nly mp FzwIpo mA
l YpJGzy lwrzEtGsx zE zGspE yHxpEtnlw GpnsytDHpF- OpGltwF lEp rtIpy ty esH
lyo SlFGtp ’=$$?(- QEtpoxly pG lw- ’=$%$( CEzItop FzqGJlEp qzE nzxCHGtyr
Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClGs qzE Gsp GJz! lyo xHwGtnwlFF wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzo!
pwF- jlmwp %]-%+ wtyp [ EpCzEGF Gsp EpFHwGF qzE Gsp xHwGtnwlFF wzrtFGtn EprEpF!
Ftzy xzopw+ EpqpEEpo Gz GspEp lF ˜xHwGtyzxtlw˙- TG nly mp FszJy ’hzFFpG
pG lw-+ =$$?l( GslG qzE FpClElmwp olGl+ lF λ → $+ Gsp EprHwlEtBpo ’GJz!
nwlFF( wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy pFGtxlGp ’EpyzExlwtBpo( nzyIpErpF Gz Gsp xlKtxlw
xlErty nwlFFt¨pE ’ipnGtzy %=-=(- jstF rtIpF ly lGGElnGtIp lwGpEylGtIp Gz Gsp
FHCCzEG!IpnGzE xlnstyp+ otFnHFFpo ypKG+ pFCpntlwwA ty Gsp xHwGtnwlFF nlFp-
07-“-“ jsp iHCCzEG apnGzE NwlFFt6pE

jsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE tF opFnEtmpo qzE Gsp GJz!nwlFF nlFp ty ipn!
Gtzy %=-=- bspy C / Y + tG tF pFCpntlwwA lGGElnGtIp mpnlHFp ty rpypElw Gsp
[4] %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
nwlFFpF lEp CpEqpnGwA FpClElmwp mA l sACpECwlyp HywpFF GspEp lEp topyGtnlw

qplGHEp IpnGzEF ty otΓpEpyG nwlFFpF- btGszHG lyA EprHwlEtBlGtzy Gsp FHCCzEG
IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE ÿoF Gsp FpClElGtyr sACpECwlyp JtGs Gsp wlErpFG xlErty:
GslG tF+ Gsp sACpECwlyp Atpwotyr Gsp mtrrpFG rlC mpGJppy Gsp nwlFFpF ty
Gsp GEltytyr olGl- izxpJslG FHECEtFtyrwA+ Jspy C ≫ Y Gsp HyEprHwlEtBpo
FHCCzEG IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE zqGpy JzEvF lmzHG lF Jpww lF Gsp mpFG EprHwlEtBpo
IpEFtzy- ZIpE¨GGtyr zqGpy ozpF yzG Fppx Gz mp l CEzmwpx+ ClEGwA mpnlHFp zq
Gsp tyFpyFtGtItGA zq xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzy wzFF-
jspEp lEp xlyA otΓpEpyG xpGszoF qzE rpypElwtBtyr Gsp GJz!nwlFF FHCCzEG!
IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE Gz
$ %V / = nwlFFpF- Ty Gsp ˜zyp IpEFHF zyp˙ ’BTB( lCCEzlns+
Jp nzxCHGp lww V = CltEJtFp nwlFFt¨pEF- QzE plns GpFG CztyG+ Gsp CEpotnGpo
nwlFF tF Gsp zyp GslG JtyF Gsp xzFG CltEJtFp nzyGpFGF- Ty Gsp ˜zyp IpEFHF lww˙
’BTl( lCCEzlns+ plns nwlFF tF nzxClEpo Gz lww zq Gsp zGspEF ty V GJz!nwlFF
nzxClEtFzyF- jz nwlFFtqA l GpFG CztyG+ Jp nzxCHGp Gsp nzyöpynpF ’Ftrypo
otFGlynp qEzx Gsp sACpECwlyp( qzE plns zq Gsp V nwlFFt¨pEF- jsp JtyypE tF Gsp
nwlFF JtGs Gsp strspFG nzyöpynp- QtylwwA+ alCytv ’%––]( lyo bpFGzy lyo
blGvtyF ’%–––( FHrrpFGpo ’FzxpJslG nzxCwpK( xHwGtnwlFF nEtGpEtl Jstns
rpypElwtBp Gsp GJz!nwlFF nEtGpEtzy ’%=-[(-
jtmFstElyt lyo SlFGtp ’=$$fi( CEzCzFp Gsp xlErty GEpp nwlFFt¨pE+ ty Jstns
FHCCzEG!IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pEF lEp HFpo ty l mtylEA GEpp+ xHns lF ty NLhj
’NslCGpE –(- jsp nwlFFpF lEp zErlytBpo ty l stpElEnstnlw xlyypE+ Jstns nly
mp HFpqHw qzE nwlFFtqAtyr ClGtpyGF tyGz otΓpEpyG nlynpE GACpF+ qzE pKlxCwp-
typ “ zq jlmwp %]-% FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF qzE Gsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE
HFtyr Gsp BTl xpGszo: hlxlFJlxA pG lw- ’=$$%( EpCzEGpo ’lyo Jp nzy!
Ëxpo( GslG GstF lCCEzlns JzEvpo mpFG qzE GstF CEzmwpx- jsp pEEzEF lEp
IpEA FtxtwlE Gz GszFp ty wtyp [+ lF Jp xtrsG pKCpnG qEzx Gsp nzxxpyGF
lG Gsp pyo zq Gsp CEpItzHF FpnGtzy- jsp pEEzE ElGpF lEp tyFpyFtGtIp Gz Gsp
nsztnp zq N ”Gsp EprHwlEtBlGtzy ClElxpGpE ty ’%=-]( zy Clrp ?=$fl+ qzE IlwHpF
zq N / $,$$%- itynp C / Y + Gsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE sACpECwlyp nly CpEqpnGwA
FpClElGp Gsp GEltytyr olGl mA FpGGtyr N ˆ ∞-
07-“-? QplGHEp ipwpnGtzy

QplGHEp FpwpnGtzy tF ly txCzEGlyG FntpyGt¨n EpDHtEpxpyG qzE l nwlFFt¨pE Jspy
C tF wlErp- YptGspE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF+ wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy+ yzE Gsp FHCCzEG!
IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE CpEqzEx qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy lHGzxlGtnlwwA+ mpnlHFp lww HFp
DHloElGtn EprHwlEtBlGtzy- Lww qplGHEpF slIp yzyBpEz JptrsGF ty mzGs xzopwF-
Lo!szn xpGszoF qzE qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy slIp mppy CEzCzFpo+ qzE pKlxCwp+
EpxzItyr rpypF JtGs Fxlww nzpffntpyGF+ lyo Ep¨GGtyr Gsp nwlFFt¨pE- jstF tF
ozyp ty l mlnvJlEo FGpCJtFp xlyypE+ FGlEGtyr JtGs Gsp FxlwwpFG JptrsGF lyo
xzItyr zy Gz wlErpE JptrsGF- jstF tF vyzJy lF EpnHEFtIp qplGHEp pwtxtylGtzy
’RHAzy pG lw-+ =$$=(- TG JlF yzG FHnnpFFqHw ty GstF pKlxCwp: hlxlFJlxA
pG lw- ’=$$%( EpCzEG+ qzE pKlxCwp+ GslG Gsp lnnHElnA zq Gsp FHCCzEG!IpnGzE
nwlFFt¨pE FGlEGF Gz oprElop lF Gsp yHxmpE zq rpypF tF EpoHnpo qEzx Gsp qHww
%]-“ typlE NwlFFt6pEF UtGs gHloElGtn hprHwlEtBlGtzy [4–
FpG zq %[W $[“- jstF tF ElGspE EpxlEvlmwp+ lF Gsp yHxmpE zq GEltytyr FlxCwpF
tF zywA %??- bp oz yzG slIp ly pKCwlylGtzy qzE GstF mpslItzE-
Lww GsEpp xpGszoF otFnHFFpo ty GstF FpnGtzy ’hOL+ h lyo iaX( nly
mp xzot¨po Gz ¨G yzywtyplE opntFtzy mzHyolEtpF HFtyr vpEypwF- kFHlwwA Gsp
xzGtIlGtzy qzE FHns ly lCCEzlns tF Gz tynEplFp Gsp xzopw nzxCwpKtGA- btGs
C ≫ Y Gsp xzopwF lEp lwEploA FHffntpyGwA nzxCwpK lyo zIpE¨GGtyr tF lwJlAF
l olyrpE- dpG opFCtGp Gsp strs otxpyFtzylwtGA+ Elotlw vpEypwF ’ipnGtzy %=-“-“(
FzxpGtxpF opwtIpE FHCpEtzE EpFHwGF ty GspFp strs otxpyFtzylw CEzmwpxF- jsp
Elotlw vpEypw GpyoF Gz olxCpy tyypE CEzoHnGF mpGJppy CztyGF qlE lJlA qEzx
plns zGspE+ Jstns ty GHEy wploF Gz EzmHFGypFF Gz zHGwtpEF- jstF znnHEF zqGpy
ty strs otxpyFtzyF+ lyo xlA pKCwlty Gsp CzFtGtIp EpFHwGF- bp GEtpo l Elotlw
vpEypw JtGs Gsp iaX ty jlmwp %]-%+ mHG ty GstF nlFp Gsp CpEqzExlynp JlF
tyqpEtzE-
07-“-4 NzxCHGlGtzylw iszEGnHGF bspy N ≫ Y

jsp nzxCHGlGtzylw GpnsytDHpF otFnHFFpo ty GstF FpnGtzy lCCwA Gz lyA xpGszo
GslG ¨GF l wtyplE xzopw JtGs DHloElGtn EprHwlEtBlGtzy zy Gsp nzpffntpyGF-
jslG tynwHopF lww Gsp xpGszoF otFnHFFpo ty GstF FpnGtzy+ lyo xlyA xzEp-
bspy C / Y + Gsp nzxCHGlGtzyF nly mp nlEEtpo zHG ty ly Y !otxpyFtzylw
FClnp+ ElGspE Gsly C+ Itl Gsp FtyrHwlE IlwHp opnzxCzFtGtzy tyGEzoHnpo ty
ipnGtzy %?-4- SpEp tF Gsp rpzxpGEtn tyGHtGtzy9 uHFG wtvp GJz CztyGF ty GsEpp!
otxpyFtzylw FClnp lwJlAF wtp zy l wtyp+ Y CztyGF ty C!otxpyFtzylw FClnp wtp
ty ly ’Y } %(!otxpyFtzylw lffyp FHmFClnp-
RtIpy Gsp Y × C olGl xlGEtK c+ wpG
c ˆ kOaj ’%]-%=(
j
ˆ ha ’%]-%“(
mp Gsp FtyrHwlE!IlwHp opnzxCzFtGtzy ’iaO( zq c: GslG tF+ a tF C × Y JtGs

zEGszyzExlw nzwHxyF+ k tF Y × Y zEGszrzylw+ lyo O l otlrzylw xlGEtK
JtGs pwpxpyGF o0 ≥ o= ≥ oY ≥ $- jsp xlGEtK h tF Y × Y + JtGs EzJF Etj -
LF l FtxCwp pKlxCwp+ wpG&F ËFG nzyFtopE Gsp pFGtxlGpF qEzx l Etorp Ep!
rEpFFtzy9
β— ˆ ’cj c ) λT(}0 cj A, ’%]-%?(
hpCwlntyr c mA haj lyo lqGpE Fzxp qHEGspE xlytCHwlGtzyF+ GstF nly mp
FszJy Gz pDHlw
β— ˆ a’hj h ) λT(}0 hj A ’%]-%4(
’PKpEntFp %]-?(- jsHF β— ˆ aθ+ — JspEp θ— tF Gsp Etorp!EprEpFFtzy pFGtxlGp

HFtyr Gsp Y zmFpEIlGtzyF ’Et W At (+ t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y - Ty zGspE JzEoF+ Jp nly
FtxCwA EpoHnp Gsp olGl xlGEtK qEzx c Gz h+ lyo JzEv JtGs Gsp EzJF zq
h- jstF GEtnv EpoHnpF Gsp nzxCHGlGtzylw nzFG qEzx Z’C˜ ( Gz Z’CY = ( Jspy
C / Y-
[[/ %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
jspFp EpFHwGF nly mp rpypElwtBpo Gz lww xzopwF GslG lEp wtyplE ty Gsp
ClElxpGpEF lyo slIp DHloElGtn CpylwGtpF- NzyFtopE lyA FHCpEItFpo wplEytyr
CEzmwpx JspEp Jp HFp l wtyplE qHynGtzy q ’c( ˆ β$ ) c j β Gz xzopw l
ClElxpGpE ty Gsp nzyotGtzylw otFGEtmHGtzy zq d Kc- bp ¨G Gsp ClElxpGpEF β
(Y
mA xtytxtBtyr Fzxp wzFF qHynGtzy tˆ0 ’At W q ’Kt (( zIpE Gsp olGl JtGs l
DHloElGtn CpylwGA zy β- zrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy tF l HFpqHw pKlxCwp Gz slIp ty
xtyo- jspy Jp slIp Gsp qzwwzJtyr FtxCwp GspzEpx9
pG q { ’Et ( ˆ θ$ ) Etj θ JtGs Et opÿpo ty &%fl-%2() lyo nzyFtopE Gsp CltE zq
zCGtxtBlGtzy CEzmwpxF9
Y
∑
’β—$ W β(
— ˆ lEr xty ’At W β$ ) Kjt β( ) λβ j β: ’%]-%[(
β$ Wβ∈ThN
tˆ0
Y
∑
’θ—$ W θ(
— ˆ lEr xty ’At W θ$ ) Etj θ( ) λθj θ, ’%]-%fi(
θ$ Wθ∈Thd
tˆ0
jspy Gsp β—$ ˆ θ—$ ) lyo β— ˆ aθ-

—
jsp GspzEpx FlAF GslG Jp nly FtxCwA EpCwlnp Gsp C IpnGzEF Kt mA Gsp
Y !IpnGzEF Et + lyo CpEqzEx zHE CpylwtBpo ¨G lF mpqzEp+ mHG JtGs qlE qpJpE
CEpotnGzEF- jsp Y !IpnGzE FzwHGtzy θ— tF Gspy GElyFqzExpo mlnv Gz Gsp C!
IpnGzE FzwHGtzy Itl l FtxCwp xlGEtK xHwGtCwtnlGtzy- jstF EpFHwG tF ClEG zq
Gsp FGlGtFGtnF qzwvwzEp+ lyo opFpEIpF Gz mp vyzJy xzEp JtopwA1Fpp SlFGtp
lyo jtmFstElyt ’=$$?( qzE qHEGspE opGltwF-
RpzxpGEtnlwwA+ Jp lEp EzGlGtyr Gsp qplGHEpF Gz l nzzEotylGp FAFGpx ty
Jstns lww mHG Gsp ËFG Y nzzEotylGpF lEp BpEz- iHns EzGlGtzyF lEp lwwzJpo
Ftynp Gsp DHloElGtn CpylwGA tF tyIlEtlyG HyopE EzGlGtzyF+ lyo wtyplE xzopwF
lEp pDHtIlEtlyG-
jstF EpFHwG nly mp lCCwtpo Gz xlyA zq Gsp wplEytyr xpGszoF otFnHFFpo
ty GstF nslCGpE+ FHns lF EprHwlEtBpo ’xHwGtnwlFF( wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy+ wtyplE
otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF ’PKpEntFp %]-[(+ lyo FHCCzEG IpnGzE xlnstypF- TG lwFz
lCCwtpF Gz ypHElw ypGJzEvF JtGs DHloElGtn EprHwlEtBlGtzy ’ipnGtzy %%-4-=(-
YzGp+ szJpIpE+ GslG tG ozpF yzG lCCwA Gz xpGszoF FHns lF Gsp wlFFz+ Jstns
HFpF yzyDHloElGtn ’ 0 ( CpylwGtpF zy Gsp nzpffntpyGF-
jACtnlwwA Jp HFp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Gz FpwpnG Gsp ClElxpGpE λ- TG nly mp
Fppy ’PKpEntFp %]-%=( GslG Jp zywA yppo Gz nzyFGEHnG h zynp+ zy Gsp zEtrtylw
olGl+ lyo HFp tG lF Gsp olGl qzE plns zq Gsp Na qzwoF-
jsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE ˜vpEypw GEtnv˙ zq ipnGtzy %=-“-fi pKCwztGF Gsp Flxp Ep!
oHnGtzy HFpo ty GstF FpnGtzy+ ty l FwtrsGwA otΓpEpyG nzyGpKG- iHCCzFp Jp slIp
lG zHE otFCzFlw Gsp Y × Y rElx ’tyypE!CEzoHnG( xlGEtK V ˆ ccj - QEzx
’%]-%=( Jp slIp V ˆ kO= kj + lyo Fz V nlCGHEpF Gsp Flxp tyqzExlGtzy lF
h- PKpEntFp %]-%“ FszJF szJ Jp nly pKCwztG Gsp toplF ty GstF FpnGtzy Gz ¨G
l Etorpo wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy JtGs V HFtyr tGF iaO-
%]-? typlE NwlFFt6pEF UtGs 0 hprHwlEtBlGtzy [[%
07-? typlE NwlFFt6pEF UtGs % hprHwlEtBlGtzy

jsp xpGszoF zq Gsp CEpItzHF nslCGpE HFp ly = CpylwGA Gz EprHwlEtBp GsptE
ClElxpGpEF+ uHFG lF ty Etorp EprEpFFtzy- Lww zq Gsp pFGtxlGpo nzpffntpyGF
lEp yzyBpEz+ lyo spynp yz qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy tF CpEqzExpo- Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp
otFnHFF xpGszoF GslG HFp 0 CpylwGtpF tyFGplo+ lyo spynp CEzItop lHGzxlGtn
qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy-
hpnlww Gsp wlFFz zq ipnGtzy “-?-=+
% ∑& '=
Y ∑C ∑C
xty At } β$ } KtH βH ) λ KβH KW ’%]-%](
β =
tˆ0 Hˆ0 Hˆ0
Jstns Jp slIp JEtGGpy ty Gsp lrElyrp qzEx ’“-4=(- LF otFnHFFpo GspEp+ Gsp
HFp zq Gsp 0 CpylwGA nlHFpF l FHmFpG zq Gsp FzwHGtzy nzpffntpyGF β—H Gz mp
pKlnGwA BpEz+ qzE l FHffntpyGwA wlErp IlwHp zq Gsp GHytyr ClElxpGpE λ-
Ty ipnGtzy “-]-% Jp otFnHFFpo Gsp Lhi lwrzEtGsx+ ly pffntpyG CEznpoHEp
qzE nzxCHGtyr Gsp wlFFz FzwHGtzy qzE lww λ- bspy C / Y ’lF ty GstF nslCGpE(+
lF λ lCCEzlnspF BpEz+ Gsp wlFFz ¨GF Gsp GEltytyr olGl pKlnGwA- Ty qlnG+ mA
nzyIpK oHlwtGA zyp nly FszJ GslG Jspy C / Y Gsp yHxmpE zq yzy!BpEz
nzpffntpyGF tF lG xzFG Y qzE lww IlwHpF zq λ ’hzFFpG lyo esH+ =$$fi+ qzE
pKlxCwp(- jsHF Gsp wlFFz CEzItopF l ’FpIpEp( qzEx zq qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy-
lFFz EprEpFFtzy nly mp lCCwtpo Gz l GJz!nwlFF nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpx mA
nzotyr Gsp zHGnzxp ±%+ lyo lCCwAtyr l nHGzΓ ’HFHlwwA $( Gz Gsp CEpotnGtzyF-
QzE xzEp Gsly GJz nwlFFpF+ GspEp lEp xlyA CzFFtmwp lCCEzlnspF+ tynwHotyr
Gsp BTl lyo BTB xpGszoF otFnHFFpo ty ipnGtzy %]-“-“- bp GEtpo Gsp BTl!
lCCEzlns zy Gsp nlynpE olGl ty ipnGtzy %]-“- jsp EpFHwGF lEp FszJy ty
wtyp ’?( zq jlmwp %]-%- TGF CpEqzExlynp tF lxzyr Gsp mpFG-
L xzEp ylGHElw lCCEzlns qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy CEzmwpxF tF Gz HFp Gsp wlFFz
CpylwGA Gz EprHwlEtBp wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy- ipIpElw txCwpxpyGlGtzyF slIp mppy
CEzCzFpo ty Gsp wtGpElGHEp+ tynwHotyr ClGs lwrzEtGsxF FtxtwlE Gz Lhi ’flEv
lyo SlFGtp+ =$$fi(- MpnlHFp Gsp ClGsF lEp CtpnpJtFp FxzzGs mHG yzywtyplE+
pKlnG xpGszoF lEp FwzJpE Gsly Gsp Lhi lwrzEtGsx+ lyo lEp wpFF qplFtmwp
Jspy C tF wlErp-
QEtpoxly pG lw- ’=$%$( CEzItop IpEA qlFG lwrzEtGsxF qzE ¨GGtyr 0 !Cpy!
lwtBpo wzrtFGtn lyo xHwGtyzxtlw EprEpFFtzy xzopwF- jspA HFp Gsp FAxxpGEtn
xHwGtyzxtlw wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw lF ty ’%]-%$( ty ipnGtzy %]-“-=+ lyo
xlKtxtBp Gsp CpylwtBpo wzr!wtvpwtszzo
 
∑Y V ∑
∑ C
xlK  wzr fE’rt KKt ( } λ KβvH K : ’%]-%–(
·β$v Wβv ∈ThN |a
0 tˆ0 vˆ0 Hˆ0
nzxClEp JtGs ’%]-%%(- jsptE lwrzEtGsx nzxCHGpF Gsp pKlnG FzwHGtzy lG l

CEp!nszFpy FpDHpynp zq IlwHpF qzE λ mA nAnwtnlw nzzEotylGp opFnpyG ’ipn!
Gtzy “-]-[(+ lyo pKCwztGF Gsp qlnG GslG FzwHGtzyF lEp FClEFp Jspy C ≫ Y +
[[= %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
lF Jpww lF Gsp qlnG GslG FzwHGtzyF qzE yptrsmzEtyr IlwHpF zq λ Gpyo Gz mp

IpEA FtxtwlE- jstF xpGszo JlF HFpo ty wtyp ’fi( zq jlmwp %]-%+ JtGs Gsp zIpE!
lww GHytyr ClElxpGpE λ nszFpy mA nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- jsp CpEqzExlynp JlF
FtxtwlE Gz GslG zq Gsp mpFG xpGszoF+ pKnpCG spEp Gsp lHGzxlGtn qplGHEp Fp!
wpnGtzy nszFp =[– rpypF lwGzrpGspE- L FtxtwlE lCCEzlns tF HFpo ty Rpyvty
pG lw- ’=$$fi(: lwGszHrs GspA CEpFpyG GsptE xzopw qEzx l MlApFtly CztyG zq
ItpJ+ GspA ty qlnG nzxCHGp Gsp CzFGpEtzE xzop+ Jstns FzwIpF Gsp CpylwtBpo
xlKtxHx!wtvpwtszzo CEzmwpx-
lFFz PwlFGtn YpG

2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
NBC2ntCARg
NBC2ntCARg
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
−8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 −8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1
wBrWλ( wBrWλ(
QTRIFD 07W4W hprHwlEtBpo wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy ClGsF qzE Gsp wpHvpxtl olGl- jsp
wpqG Clypw tF Gsp wlFFz ClGs+ Gsp EtrsG Clypw Gsp pwlFGtn,ypG ClGs JtGs α ˆ /,]- LG
Gsp pyoF zq Gsp ClGs ’pKGEpxp wpqG(+ GspEp lEp %– yzyBpEz nzpffntpyGF qzE Gsp wlFFz+
lyo “– qzE Gsp pwlFGtn ypG- jsp lIpElrtyr p;pnG zq Gsp pwlFGtn ypG EpFHwGF ty xzEp
yzy,BpEz nzpffntpyGF Gsly Gsp wlFFz+ mHG JtGs FxlwwpE xlrytGHopF-
Ty rpyzxtn lCCwtnlGtzyF+ GspEp lEp zqGpy FGEzyr nzEEpwlGtzyF lxzyr Gsp

IlEtlmwpF: rpypF Gpyo Gz zCpElGp ty xzwpnHwlE ClGsJlAF- jsp wlFFz CpylwGA
tF FzxpJslG tyotΓpEpyG Gz Gsp nsztnp lxzyr l FpG zq FGEzyr mHG nzEEp!
wlGpo IlEtlmwpF ’PKpEntFp “-=](- jsp Etorp CpylwGA+ zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ GpyoF
Gz FsEtyv Gsp nzpffntpyGF zq nzEEpwlGpo IlEtlmwpF GzJlEo plns zGspE ’PKpE!
ntFp “-=– zy Clrp ––(- jsp pwlFGtn ypG CpylwGA ’ezH lyo SlFGtp+ =$$4( tF l
nzxCEzxtFp+ lyo slF Gsp qzEx
C
∑ $ %
αKβH K ) ’% } α(βH= , ’%]-=$(
Hˆ0
jsp Fpnzyo GpEx pynzHElrpF strswA nzEEpwlGpo qplGHEpF Gz mp lIpElrpo+ Jstwp

Gsp ËFG GpEx pynzHElrpF l FClEFp FzwHGtzy ty Gsp nzpffntpyGF zq GspFp lIpE!
%]-? typlE NwlFFt6pEF UtGs 0 hprHwlEtBlGtzy [[“
lrpo qplGHEpF- jsp pwlFGtn ypG CpylwGA nly mp HFpo JtGs lyA wtyplE xzopw+
ty ClEGtnHwlE qzE EprEpFFtzy zE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy-
Spynp Gsp xHwGtyzxtlw CEzmwpx lmzIp JtGs pwlFGtn!ypG CpylwGA mpnzxpF
 
∑Y V ∑
∑ C
$ %
xlK  wzr fE’rt KKt ( } λ = 
αKβvH K ) ’% } α(βvH ,
·β$v Wβv ∈ThN |a
0 tˆ0 vˆ0 Hˆ0
’%]-=%(
jsp ClElxpGpE α opGpExtypF Gsp xtK zq Gsp CpylwGtpF+ lyo tF zqGpy CEp!
nszFpy zy DHlwtGlGtIp rEzHyoF- jsp pwlFGtn ypG nly Atpwo xzEp GslG Y yzy!
BpEz nzpffntpyGF Jspy C / Y + l CzGpyGtlw loIlyGlrp zIpE Gsp wlFFz- typ
’]( ty jlmwp %]-% HFpF GstF xzopw+ JtGs α lyo λ nszFpy mA nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy-
bp HFpo l FpDHpynp zq =$ IlwHpF zq α mpGJppy $,$4 lyo %,$+ lyo l %$$
IlwHpF zq λ HytqzEx zy Gsp wzr Fnlwp nzIpEtyr Gsp pyGtEp Elyrp- alwHpF zq
α ∈ ”$,fi4W $,]$fl rlIp Gsp xtytxHx Na pEEzE+ JtGs IlwHpF zq λ ı $,$$% qzE lww
Gtpo FzwHGtzyF- LwGszHrs tG slF Gsp wzJpFG GpFG pEEzE lxzyr lww xpGszoF+ Gsp
xlErty tF Fxlww lyo yzG Ftryt¨nlyG- TyGpEpFGtyrwA+ Jspy Na tF CpEqzExpo
FpClElGpwA qzE plns IlwHp zq α+ l xtytxHx GpFG pEEzE zq ],] tF lnstpIpo lG
α ˆ $,%$+ mHG GstF tF yzG Gsp IlwHp nszFpy ty Gsp GJz!otxpyFtzylw Na-
30
0.4
Training
Test
25
10−fold CV
0.3
20
Deviance
15
0.2
10
0.1
5
0.0
−8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 −8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1
wBrWλ( wBrWλ(
QTRIFD 07W5W jEltytyr+ GpFG+ lyo %/,qzwo nEzFF IlwtolGtzy nHEIpF qzE wlFFz wzrtF,
Gtn EprEpFFtzy zy Gsp wpHvpxtl olGl- jsp wpqG Clypw FszJF xtFnwlFFt6nlGtzy pEEzEF+
Gsp EtrsG Clypw FszJF opItlynp-
QtrHEp %]-4 FszJF Gsp wlFFz lyo pwlFGtn!ypG nzpffntpyG ClGsF zy Gsp GJz!
nwlFF wpHvpxtl olGl ’RzwHm pG lw-+ %–––(- jspEp lEp fi%=– rpyp!pKCEpFFtzy
xplFHEpxpyGF zy “] FlxCwpF+ =fi zq Gspx ty nwlFF L ’lnHGp wAxCsznAGtn
wpHvpxtl(+ lyo %% ty nwlFF LX ’lnHGp xApwzrpyzHF wpHvpxtl(- jspEp tF
lwFz l GpFG FpG JtGs “? FlxCwpF ’=$+ %?(- itynp Gsp olGl lEp wtyplEwA FpClEl!
mwp+ Gsp FzwHGtzy tF Hyopÿpo lG λ ˆ $ ’PKpEntFp %]-%%(+ lyo oprElopF qzE
IpEA Fxlww IlwHpF zq λ- Spynp Gsp ClGsF slIp mppy GEHynlGpo lF Gsp ¨GGpo
CEzmlmtwtGtpF lCCEzlns $ lyo %- jspEp lEp %– yzy!BpEz nzpffntpyGF ty Gsp
wpqG CwzG+ lyo “– ty Gsp EtrsG- QtrHEp %]-[ ’wpqG Clypw( FszJF Gsp xtFnwlF!
[[? %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
Ft¨nlGtzy pEEzEF qzE Gsp wlFFz wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy zy Gsp GEltytyr lyo GpFG
olGl+ lF Jpww lF qzE %$!qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy zy Gsp GEltytyr olGl- jsp EtrsG
Clypw HFpF mtyzxtlw opItlynp Gz xplFHEp pEEzEF+ lyo tF xHns FxzzGspE- jsp
Fxlww FlxCwp FtBpF wplo Gz nzyFtopElmwp FlxCwtyr IlEtlynp ty GspFp nHEIpF+
pIpy GszHrs tyotItoHlw nHEIpF lEp EpwlGtIpwA FxzzGs ’Fpp+ qzE pKlxCwp+ Qtr!
HEp fi-% zy Clrp ==$(- MzGs zq GspFp CwzGF FHrrpFG GslG Gsp wtxtGtyr FzwHGtzy
λ ↓ $ tF lopDHlGp+ wplotyr Gz “#“? xtFnwlFFt¨nlGtzyF ty Gsp GpFG FpG- jsp
nzEEpFCzyotyr ¨rHEpF qzE Gsp pwlFGtn ypG lEp DHlwtGlGtIpwA FtxtwlE lyo lEp
yzG FszJy-
QzE C ≫ Y + Gsp wtxtGtyr nzpffntpyGF otIpErp qzE lww EprHwlEtBpo wzrtFGtn
EprEpFFtzy xzopwF+ Fz ty CElnGtnlw FzqGJlEp txCwpxpyGlGtzyF l xtytxHx
IlwHp qzE λ / $ tF ptGspE pKCwtntGwA zE txCwtntGwA FpG- SzJpIpE+ EpyzExlwtBpo
IpEFtzyF zq Gsp nzpffntpyGF nzyIpErp+ lyo GspFp wtxtGtyr FzwHGtzyF nly mp
GszHrsG zq lF tyGpEpFGtyr lwGpEylGtIpF Gz Gsp wtyplE zCGtxlw FpClElGtyr sA!
CpECwlyp ’iaX(- btGs α ˆ $ Gsp wtxtGtyr FzwHGtzy nztyntopF JtGs Gsp iaX
’Fpp pyo zq ipnGtzy %]-“-=(+ mHG lww Gsp fi%=– rpypF lEp FpwpnGpo- btGs α ˆ %+
Gsp wtxtGtyr FzwHGtzy nztyntopF JtGs ly 0 FpClElGtyr sACpECwlyp ’hzFFpG
pG lw-+ =$$?l(+ lyo tynwHopF lG xzFG “] rpypF- LF α opnEplFpF qEzx %+ Gsp
pwlFGtn!ypG FzwHGtzyF tynwHop xzEp rpypF ty Gsp FpClElGtyr sACpECwlyp-
07-?-0 LCCwtnlGtzy zq lFFz Gz fEzGpty clFF iCpnGEzFnzCA

fEzGpty xlFF FCpnGEzxpGEA slF mpnzxp l CzCHwlE GpnsyzwzrA qzE lylwABtyr
Gsp CEzGptyF ty mwzzo+ lyo nly mp HFpo Gz otlryzFp l otFplFp zE HyopEFGlyo
Gsp CEznpFFpF HyopEwAtyr tG-
QzE plns mwzzo FpEHx FlxCwp t+ Jp zmFpEIp Gsp tyGpyFtGA KtH qzE xlyA
Gtxp zq 7trsG IlwHpF GH - jstF tyGpyFtGA tF EpwlGpo Gz Gsp yHxmpE zq ClEGtnwpF
zmFpEIpo Gz Glvp lCCEzKtxlGpwA GH Gtxp Gz ClFF qEzx Gsp pxtGGpE Gz Gsp
opGpnGzE oHEtyr l nAnwp zq zCpElGtzy zq Gsp xlnstyp- jsp Gtxp zq 7trsG slF
l vyzJy EpwlGtzyFstC Gz Gsp xlFF zIpE nslErp ElGtz ’x.B( zq Gsp nzyFGtGHpyG
CEzGptyF ty Gsp mwzzo- Spynp Gsp topyGt¨nlGtzy zq l Cplv ty Gsp FCpnGEHx
lG l npEGlty GH GpwwF HF GslG GspEp tF l CEzGpty JtGs l nzEEpFCzyotyr xlFF
lyo nslErp- jsp topyGtGA zq GstF CEzGpty nly Gspy mp opGpExtypo mA zGspE
xplyF-
QtrHEp %]-fi FszJF ly pKlxCwp Glvpy qEzx Lolx pG lw- ’=$$“(- TG FszJF
Gsp lIpElrp FCpnGEl qzE splwGsA ClGtpyGF lyo GszFp JtGs CEzFGlGp nlynpE-
jspEp lEp %[+]–] x.B FtGpF ty GzGlw+ Elyrtyr ty IlwHp qEzx =$$$ Gz ?$+$$$-
jsp qHww olGlFpG nzyFtFGF zq %4fi splwGsA ClGtpyGF lyo %[fi JtGs nlynpE+ lyo
Gsp rzlw tF Gz ÿo x.B FtGpF GslG otFnEtxtylGp mpGJppy Gsp GJz rEzHCF-
jstF tF ly pKlxCwp zq qHynGtzylw olGl: Gsp CEpotnGzEF nly mp ItpJpo lF l
qHynGtzy zq x.B- jspEp slF mppy xHns tyGpEpFG ty GstF CEzmwpx ty Gsp ClFG
qpJ AplEF: Fpp p-r- fpGEtnzty pG lw- ’=$$=(-
jsp olGl JpEp ËFG FGlyolEotBpo ’mlFpwtyp FHmGElnGtzy lyo yzExlwtBl!
Gtzy(+ lyo Jp EpFGEtnGpo lGGpyGtzy Gz x.B IlwHpF mpGJppy =$$$ lyo ?$+$$$
’FCpnGEl zHGFtop zq GstF Elyrp JpEp yzG zq tyGpEpFG(- bp Gspy lCCwtpo yplE!
%]-? typlE NwlFFt6pEF UtGs 0 hprHwlEtBlGtzy [[4
Normal
40
Cancer
30
Intensity
20
10
2e+03 5e+03 1e+04 2e+04 5e+04 1e+05 2e+05
m/z
QTRIFD 07W6W fEzGpty xlFF FCpnGEzxpGEA olGl9 lIpElrp CEz6wpF qEzx yzExlw
lyo CEzFGlGp nlynpE ClGtpyGF-
pFG FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF lyo wlFFz EprEpFFtzy Gz Gsp olGl+ JtGs Gsp EpFHwGF qzE
mzGs xpGszoF FszJy ty jlmwp %]-=-
MA ¨GGtyr slEopE Gz Gsp olGl+ Gsp wlFFz lnstpIpF l nzyFtopElmwA wzJpE
GpFG pEEzE ElGp- SzJpIpE+ tG xlA yzG CEzItop l FntpyGt¨nlwwA HFpqHw FzwH!
Gtzy- ToplwwA+ CEzGpty xlFF FCpnGEzxpGEA EpFzwIpF l mtzwzrtnlw FlxCwp tyGz
tGF nzyFGtGHpyG CEzGptyF+ lyo GspFp FszHwo lCCplE lF CplvF ty Gsp FCpnGEl-
jsp wlFFz ozpFy&G GEplG CplvF ty lyA FCpntlw JlA+ Fz yzG FHECEtFtyrwA zywA
Fzxp zq Gsp yzy!BpEz wlFFz JptrsGF JpEp FtGHlGpo yplE CplvF ty Gsp FCpnGEl-
QHEGspExzEp+ Gsp Flxp CEzGpty xlA Atpwo l Cplv lG FwtrsGwA otΓpEpyG x.B
IlwHpF ty otΓpEpyG FCpnGEl- Ty zEopE Gz topyGtqA nzxxzy CplvF+ Fzxp vtyo
zq x.B JlECtyr tF yppopo qEzx FlxCwp Gz FlxCwp-
jz looEpFF GstF+ Jp lCCwtpo l FGlyolEo Cplv!pKGElnGtzy lwrzEtGsx Gz plns
FCpnGEHx+ Atpwotyr l GzGlw zq 4%fi] CplvF ty Gsp =%fi GEltytyr FCpnGEl- ZHE
topl JlF Gz Czzw Gsp nzwwpnGtzy zq CplvF qEzx lww ClGtpyGF+ lyo spynp nzy!
FGEHnG l FpG zq nzxxzy CplvF- QzE GstF CHECzFp+ Jp lCCwtpo stpElEnstnlw
nwHFGpEtyr Gz Gsp CzFtGtzyF zq GspFp CplvF lwzyr Gsp wzr x.B lKtF- bp nHG
Gsp EpFHwGtyr opyoEzrElx szEtBzyGlwwA lG sptrsG wzr’$,$$4(˜ + lyo nzxCHGpo
lIpElrpF zq Gsp Cplv CzFtGtzyF ty plns EpFHwGtyr nwHFGpE- jstF CEznpFF Atpwopo
fi=] nzxxzy nwHFGpEF lyo GsptE nzEEpFCzyotyr Cplv npyGpEF-
RtIpy GspFp fi=] nzxxzy CplvF+ Jp opGpExtypo Jstns zq GspFp JpEp
CEpFpyG ty plns tyotItoHlw FCpnGEHx+ lyo tq CEpFpyG+ Gsp sptrsG zq Gsp Cplv-
L Cplv sptrsG zq BpEz JlF lFFtrypo tq GslG Cplv JlF yzG qzHyo- jstF CEz!
oHnpo l =%fi × fi=] xlGEtK zq Cplv sptrsGF lF qplGHEpF+ Jstns JlF HFpo ty l
wlFFz EprEpFFtzy- bp FnzEpo Gsp GpFG FCpnGEl qzE Gsp Flxp fi=] CplvF-
2 kFp zq Gsp IlwHp /,//4 xplyF GslG CplvF JtGs CzFtGtzyF wpFF Gsly /-40 lClEG lEp
nzyFtopEpo Gsp Flxp Cplv) l qltEwA nzxxzy lFFHxCGtzy-

[[[ %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
uLM D 07W1W hpFHwGF qzE Gsp CEzFGlGp olGl pKlxCwp- jsp FGlyolEo opItlGtzy qzE
Gsp GpFG pEEzEF tF lmzHG ?,4-
XpGszo jpFG PEEzEF#%$] YHxmpE zq itGpF
%- YplEpFG FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF “? ?4–
=- lFFz == %%“
“- lFFz zy CplvF =] “4
jsp CEpotnGtzy EpFHwGF qzE GstF lCCwtnlGtzy zq Gsp wlFFz Gz Gsp CplvF lEp
FszJy ty Gsp wlFG wtyp zq jlmwp %]-=9 tG ozpF qltEwA Jpww+ mHG yzG lF Jpww
lF Gsp wlFFz zy Gsp ElJ FCpnGEl- SzJpIpE+ Gsp ¨GGpo xzopw xlA mp xzEp
HFpqHw Gz Gsp mtzwzrtFG lF tG AtpwoF “4 Cplv CzFtGtzyF qzE qHEGspE FGHoA- Zy
Gsp zGspE slyo+ Gsp EpFHwGF FHrrpFG GslG GspEp xlA mp HFpqHw otFnEtxtylGzEA
tyqzExlGtzy mpGJppy Gsp CplvF zq Gsp FCpnGEl+ lyo Gsp CzFtGtzyF zq Gsp wlFFz
FtGpF qEzx wtyp ’=( zq Gsp Glmwp lwFz opFpEIp qHEGspE pKlxtylGtzy-
07-?-1 jsp QHFpo lFFz qzE QHynGtzylw OlGl

Ty Gsp CEpItzHF pKlxCwp+ Gsp qplGHEpF slo l ylGHElw zEopE+ opGpExtypo mA
Gsp xlFF!Gz!nslErp ElGtz x.B- XzEp rpypElwwA+ Jp xlA slIp qHynGtzylw qpl!
GHEpF Kt ’G( GslG lEp zEopEpo lnnzEotyr Gz Fzxp tyopK IlEtlmwp G- bp slIp
lwEploA otFnHFFpo FpIpElw lCCEzlnspF qzE pKCwztGtyr FHns FGEHnGHEp-
bp nly EpCEpFpyG Kt ’G( mA GsptE nzpffntpyGF ty l mlFtF zq qHynGtzyF ty G+
FHns lF FCwtypF+ JlIpwpGF zE QzHEtpE mlFpF+ lyo Gspy lCCwA l EprEpFFtzy HFtyr
GspFp nzpffntpyGF lF CEpotnGzEF- PDHtIlwpyGwA+ zyp nly tyFGplo EpCEpFpyG Gsp
nzpffntpyGF zq Gsp zEtrtylw qplGHEpF ty GspFp mlFpF- jspFp lCCEzlnspF lEp
opFnEtmpo ty ipnGtzy 4-“-
Ty Gsp nwlFFt¨nlGtzy FpGGtyr+ Jp otFnHFF Gsp lylwzrzHF lCCEzlns zq Cpylw!
tBpo otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF ty ipnGtzy %=-[- jstF HFpF l CpylwGA GslG pKCwtntGwA
nzyGEzwF Gsp EpFHwGtyr FxzzGsypFF zq Gsp nzpffntpyG IpnGzE-
jsp lmzIp xpGszoF Gpyo Gz FxzzGs Gsp nzpffntpyGF HytqzExwA- SpEp Jp
CEpFpyG l xzEp lolCGtIp FGElGprA GslG xzot¨pF Gsp wlFFz CpylwGA Gz Glvp
tyGz lnnzHyG Gsp zEopEtyr zq Gsp qplGHEpF- jsp qHFpo wlFFz ’jtmFstElyt pG
lw-+ =$$4( FzwIpF
"Y C C C}0
/
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
=
xtyN ’At } β$ } KtH βH ( ) λ0 KβH K ) λ= KβH)0 } βH K , ’%]-==(
β∈Th
tˆ0 Hˆ0 Hˆ0 Hˆ0
jstF nEtGpEtzy tF FGEtnGwA nzyIpK ty β+ Fz l HytDHp FzwHGtzy pKtFGF- jsp ËFG

CpylwGA pynzHElrpF Gsp FzwHGtzy Gz mp FClEFp+ Jstwp Gsp Fpnzyo pynzHElrpF
tG Gz mp FxzzGs ty Gsp tyopK u-
jsp otΓpEpynp CpylwGA ty ’%]-==( lFFHxpF ly HytqzExwA FClnpo tyopK u- Tq
tyFGplo Gsp HyopEwAtyr tyopK IlEtlmwp G slF yzyHytqzEx IlwHpF GH + l ylGHElw
rpypElwtBlGtzy zq ’%]-==( JzHwo mp mlFpo zy otItopo otΓpEpynpF
%]-? typlE NwlFFt6pEF UtGs 0 hprHwlEtBlGtzy [[fi
4
Izr= ElGtz
2
0
−2
0 200 400 600 800 1000
hCyzaC zEoCE
QTRIFD 07W7W QHFpo wlFFz lCCwtpo Gz NRS olGl- Plns CztyG EpCEpFpyGF Gsp
nzCA,yHxmpE zq l rpyp ty l GHxzE FlxCwp+ EpwlGtIp Gz GslG zq l nzyGEzw ’zy Gsp wzr
mlFp,= Fnlwp(-
C}0
∑ KβH)0 } βH K
λ= , ’%]-=“(
Hˆ0
KGH)0 } GH K
jstF lxzHyGF Gz slItyr l CpylwGA xzot¨pE qzE plns zq Gsp GpExF ty Gsp
FpEtpF-
L ClEGtnHwlEwA HFpqHw FCpntlw nlFp lEtFpF Jspy Gsp CEpotnGzE xlGEtK c ˆ
TY + Gsp Y × Y topyGtGA xlGEtK- jstF tF l FCpntlw nlFp zq Gsp qHFpo wlFFz+
HFpo Gz lCCEzKtxlGp l FpDHpynp ·At •Y0 - jsp qHFpo wlFFz Ftrylw lCCEzKtxlGzE
FzwIpF
"Y Y Y }0
/
∑ ∑ ∑
=
xty ’At } β$ } βt ( ) λ0 Kβt K ) λ= Kβt)0 } βt K , ’%]-=?(
β∈Thd
tˆ0 tˆ0 tˆ0
QtrHEp %]-] FszJF ly pKlxCwp Glvpy qEzx jtmFstElyt lyo blyr ’=$$fi(- jsp
olGl ty Gsp Clypw nzxp qEzx l NzxClElGtIp Rpyzxtn SAmEtotBlGtzy ’NRS(
lEElA+ xplFHEtyr Gsp lCCEzKtxlGp wzr ’mlFp!GJz( ElGtz zq Gsp yHxmpE zq
nzCtpF zq plns rpyp ty l GHxzE FlxCwp+ lF nzxClEpo Gz l yzExlw FlxCwp-
jsp szEtBzyGlw lKtF EpCEpFpyGF Gsp nsEzxzFzxlw wznlGtzy zq plns rpyp- jsp
topl tF GslG ty nlynpE npwwF+ rpypF lEp zqGpy lxCwt¨po ’oHCwtnlGpo( zE opwpGpo+
lyo tG tF zq tyGpEpFG Gz opGpnG GspFp pIpyGF- QHEGspExzEp+ GspFp pIpyGF Gpyo
Gz znnHE ty nzyGtrHzHF EprtzyF- jsp FxzzGspo Ftrylw pFGtxlGp qEzx Gsp
qHFpo wlFFz Ftrylw lCCEzKtxlGzE tF FszJy ty olEv Epo ’JtGs lCCEzCEtlGpwA
nszFpy IlwHpF qzE λ0 lyo λ= (- jsp Ftryt¨nlyGwA yzyBpEz EprtzyF nly mp HFpo
Gz opGpnG wznlGtzyF zq rltyF lyo wzFFpF zq rpypF ty Gsp GHxzE-
jspEp tF lwFz l GJz!otxpyFtzylw IpEFtzy zq Gsp qHFpo wlFFz+ ty Jstns Gsp
ClElxpGpEF lEp wlto zHG ty l rEto zq CtKpwF+ lyo l CpylwGA tF lCCwtpo Gz Gsp
[[] %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
ËFG otΓpEpynpF Gz Gsp wpqG+ EtrsG+ lmzIp lyo mpwzJ Gsp GlErpG CtKpw- jstF
nly mp HFpqHw qzE opyztFtyr zE nwlFFtqAtyr txlrpF- QEtpoxly pG lw- ’=$$fi(
opIpwzC qlFG rpypElwtBpo nzzEotylGp opFnpyG lwrzEtGsxF qzE Gsp zyp! lyo
GJz!otxpyFtzylw qHFpo wlFFz-
07-4 NwlFFt6nlGtzy bspy QplGHEpF lEp kylIltwlmwp

Ty Fzxp lCCwtnlGtzyF Gsp zmupnGF HyopE FGHoA lEp xzEp lmFGElnG ty ylGHEp+
lyo tG tF yzG zmItzHF szJ Gz opÿp l qplGHEp IpnGzE- LF wzyr lF Jp nly ¨ww
ty ly Y × Y CEzKtxtGA xlGEtK zq FtxtwlEtGtpF mpGJppy CltEF zq zmupnGF ty zHE
olGlmlFp+ tG GHEyF zHG Jp nly CHG Gz HFp xlyA zq Gsp nwlFFt¨pEF ty zHE lEFpylw
mA tyGpECEpGtyr Gsp CEzKtxtGtpF lF tyypE!CEzoHnGF- fEzGpty FGEHnGHEpF qlww
tyGz GstF nlGprzEA+ lyo Jp pKCwzEp ly pKlxCwp ty ipnGtzy %]-4-% mpwzJ-
Ty zGspE lCCwtnlGtzyF+ FHns lF oznHxpyG nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ qplGHEp IpnGzEF lEp
lIltwlmwp mHG nly mp pKGEpxpwA strs!otxpyFtzylw- SpEp Jp xlA yzG JtFs
Gz nzxCHGp JtGs FHns strs!otxpyFtzylw olGl+ mHG ElGspE FGzEp Gsp tyypE!
CEzoHnGF mpGJppy CltEF zq oznHxpyGF- ZqGpy GspFp tyypE!CEzoHnGF nly mp
lCCEzKtxlGpo mA FlxCwtyr GpnsytDHpF-
fltEJtFp otFGlynpF FpEIp l FtxtwlE CHECzFp+ mpnlHFp GspA nly mp GHEypo
tyGz npyGpEpo tyypE!CEzoHnGF- fEzKtxtGA xlGEtnpF lEp otFnHFFpo ty xzEp op!
Gltw ty NslCGpE %?-
07-4-0 PKlxCwp9 iGEtyr VpEypwF lyo fEzGpty NwlFFt6nlGtzy

Ly txCzEGlyG CEzmwpx ty nzxCHGlGtzylw mtzwzrA tF Gz nwlFFtqA CEzGptyF tyGz
qHynGtzylw lyo FGEHnGHElw nwlFFpF mlFpo zy GsptE FpDHpynp FtxtwlEtGtpF- fEz!
Gpty xzwpnHwpF lEp FGEtyrF zq lxtyz lntoF+ otΓpEtyr ty mzGs wpyrGs lyo nzx!
CzFtGtzy- Ty Gsp pKlxCwp Jp nzyFtopE+ Gsp wpyrGsF IlEA mpGJppy fi48%[$
lxtyz!lnto xzwpnHwpF+ plns zq Jstns nly mp zyp zq =$ otΓpEpyG GACpF+ wlmpwpo
HFtyr wpGGpEF- SpEp lEp GJz pKlxCwpF+ zq wpyrGs %%$ lyo %4“+ EpFCpnGtIpwA9
TfuiL aVPu L iuShu TLYPu hTfafaSVYSg NuPPTQgRTRu PiguagRRua
Ph QVY i TVVdTeRgVVVNRPPhhhaYgQ ed EfQ RaXYuPbT
fShhe NihiTb LhVThie uL uPidaVSgR biP uPLPh EfY gLdhuQSa L

h PeggaSQufuPReQSgLTSu gaLLQLdgTPP XT PdVTfhYPLeRX QPVV
bR Va Ef igbuahiTSe hQTiiSguRTf
jspEp slIp mppy xlyA CEzCzFlwF qzE xplFHEtyr Gsp FtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy l
CltE zq CEzGpty xzwpnHwpF- SpEp Jp qznHF zy l xplFHEp mlFpo zy Gsp nzHyG
zq xlGnstyr FHmFGEtyrF ’ pFwtp pG lw-+ =$$?(+ FHns lF Gsp ED lmzIp-
jz nzyFGEHnG zHE qplGHEpF+ Jp nzHyG Gsp yHxmpE zq GtxpF GslG l rtIpy
FpDHpynp zq wpyrGs x znnHEF ty zHE FGEtyr+ lyo Jp nzxCHGp GstF yHxmpE
%]-4 NwlFFt6nlGtzy bspy QplGHEpF lEp kylIltwlmwp [[–
qzE lww CzFFtmwp FpDHpynpF zq wpyrGs x- QzExlwwA+ qzE l FGEtyr K+ Jp opÿp l

qplGHEp xlC
Φx ’K( ˆ ·φl ’K(•l∈ K
’%]-=4(
JspEp Lx tF Gsp FpG zq FHmFpDHpynpF zq wpyrGs x+ lyo φl ’K( tF Gsp yHxmpE

zq GtxpF GslG ˜l˙ znnHEF ty zHE FGEtyr K- kFtyr GstF+ Jp opÿp Gsp tyypE
CEzoHnG
Vx ’K0 W K= ( ˆ 〈Φx ’K0 (W Φx ’K= (〉W ’%]-=[(
Jstns xplFHEpF Gsp FtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy Gsp GJz FGEtyrF K0 W K= , jstF nly mp
HFpo Gz oEtIp+ qzE pKlxCwp+ l FHCCzEG IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE qzE nwlFFtqAtyr FGEtyrF
tyGz otΓpEpyG CEzGpty nwlFFpF-
YzJ Gsp yHxmpE zq CzFFtmwp FpDHpynpF l tF KLx K ˆ =$x + Jstns nly mp
IpEA wlErp qzE xzopElGp x+ lyo Gsp IlFG xluzEtGA zq Gsp FHmFpDHpynpF oz
yzG xlGns Gsp FGEtyrF ty zHE GEltytyr FpG- TG GHEyF zHG GslG Jp nly nzxCHGp
Gsp Y × Y tyypE!CEzoHnG xlGEtK zE FGEtyr vpEypw Vx ’%]-=[( pffntpyGwA
HFtyr GEpp!FGEHnGHEpF+ JtGszHG lnGHlwwA nzxCHGtyr Gsp tyotItoHlw IpnGzEF-
jstF xpGszozwzrA+ lyo Gsp olGl Gz qzwwzJ+ nzxp qEzx pFwtp pG lw- ’=$$?(-3
jsp olGl nzyFtFG zq %fi$] CEzGptyF ty GJz nwlFFpF1 yprlGtIp ’%[[“( lyo
CzFtGtIp ’?4(- jsp GJz pKlxCwpF lmzIp+ Jstns Jp Jtww nlww ˜K0 ˙ lyo ˜K= ˙+
lEp qEzx GstF FpG- bp slIp xlEvpo Gsp znnHEEpynpF zq FHmFpDHpynp ED+
Jstns lCCplEF ty mzGs CEzGptyF- jspEp lEp =$˜ CzFFtmwp FHmFpDHpynpF+ Fz
Φ˜ ’K( Jtww mp l IpnGzE zq wpyrGs ]$$$- QzE GstF pKlxCwp φ gP ’K0 ( ˆ % lyo
φ gP ’K= ( ˆ =-
kFtyr FzqGJlEp qEzx pFwtp pG lw- ’=$$?(+ Jp nzxCHGpo Gsp FGEtyr vpEypw
qzE x ˆ ?+ Jstns JlF Gspy HFpo ty l FHCCzEG IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE Gz ÿo Gsp
xlKtxlw xlErty FzwHGtzy ty GstF =$3 ˆ %[$W $$$!otxpyFtzylw qplGHEp FClnp-
bp HFpo %$!qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy Gz nzxCHGp Gsp iaX CEpotnGtzyF zy lww zq
Gsp GEltytyr olGl- jsp zElyrp nHEIp ty QtrHEp %]-– FszJF Gsp nEzFF!IlwtolGpo
hZN nHEIp qzE Gsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE+ nzxCHGpo mA IlEAtyr Gsp nHG!
CztyG zy Gsp Eplw!IlwHpo CEpotnGtzyF qEzx Gsp nEzFF!IlwtolGpo FHCCzEG IpnGzE
nwlFFt¨pE- jsp lEpl HyopE Gsp nHEIp tF $-]?- pFwtp pG lw- ’=$$?( FszJ GslG
Gsp FGEtyr vpEypw xpGszo tF nzxCpGtGtIp JtGs+ mHG CpEslCF yzG lF lnnHElGp
lF+ xzEp FCpntlwtBpo xpGszoF qzE CEzGpty FGEtyr xlGnstyr-
XlyA zGspE nwlFFt¨pEF nly mp nzxCHGpo HFtyr zywA Gsp tyqzExlGtzy ty Gsp
vpEypw xlGEtK: Fzxp opGltwF lEp rtIpy ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy- jsp EpFHwGF qzE
Gsp yplEpFG npyGEzto nwlFFt¨pE ’rEppy(+ lyo otFGlynp!JptrsGpo zyp!yplEpFG
yptrsmzEF ’mwHp( lEp FszJy ty QtrHEp %]-–- jsptE CpEqzExlynp tF FtxtwlE Gz
GslG zq Gsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE-
3 bp Gslyv NsEtFGtyl pFwtp qzE spE spwC lyo qzE CEzItotyr Gsp olGl) Jstns tF lIltwlmwp
zy zHE mzzv JpmFtGp-

[fi/ %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
ROC Curves for String Kernel
1.0
0.8
0.6
Sensitivity
0.4
0.2
SVM 0.84
Nearest Centroid 0.84
0.0
One−Nearest Neighbor 0.86
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Specificity
QTRIFD 07W8W NEzFF,IlwtolGpo hZN nHEIpF qzE CEzGpty pKlxCwp HFtyr Gsp FGEtyr
vpEypw- jsp yHxmpEF ypKG Gz plns xpGszo ty Gsp wprpyo rtIp Gsp lEpl HyopE Gsp
nHEIp+ ly zIpElww xplFHEp zq lnnHElnA- jsp iac lnstpIpF mpGGpE FpyFtGtItGtpF Gsly
Gsp zGspE GJz+ Jstns lnstpIp mpGGpE FCpnt6ntGtpF-
07-4-1 NwlFFt6nlGtzy lyo ZGspE czopwF kFtyr TyypE,fEzoHnG

VpEypwF lyo fltEJtFp OtFGlynpF
jspEp lEp l yHxmpE zq zGspE nwlFFt¨pEF+ mpFtopF Gsp FHCCzEG!IpnGzE xl!
nstyp+ GslG nly mp txCwpxpyGpo HFtyr zywA tyypE!CEzoHnG xlGEtnpF- jstF
lwFz txCwtpF GspA nly mp ˜vpEypwtBpo˙ wtvp Gsp iaX-
Ly zmItzHF pKlxCwp tF yplEpFG!yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ Ftynp Jp nly GElyF!
qzEx CltEJtFp tyypE!CEzoHnGF Gz CltEJtFp otFGlynpF9
KKKt } Kt′ KK= ˆ 〈Kt W Kt 〉 ) 〈Kt′ W Kt′ 〉 } =〈Kt W Kt′ 〉, ’%]-=fi(
L IlEtlGtzy zq %!YY nwlFFt¨nlGtzy tF HFpo ty QtrHEp %]-–+ Jstns CEzoHnpF
l nzyGtyHzHF otFnEtxtylyG FnzEp yppopo Gz nzyFGEHnG l hZN nHEIp- jstF
otFGlynp!JptrsGpo %!YY xlvpF HFp zq Gsp otFGlynp zq l GpFG CztyGF Gz Gsp
nwzFpFG xpxmpE zq plns nwlFF: Fpp PKpEntFp %]-%?-
YplEpFG!npyGEzto nwlFFt¨nlGtzy qzwwzJF plFtwA lF Jpww- QzE GEltytyr CltEF
’Kt W rt (W t ˆ %W , , , W Y + l GpFG CztyG K$ + lyo nwlFF npyGEztoF K
3v + v ˆ %W , , , W V
Jp nly JEtGp
= ∑ % ∑ ∑
KKK$ } K 3v KK= ˆ 〈K$ W K$ 〉 } 〈K$ W Kt 〉 ) = 〈Kt W Kt′ 〉W ’%]-=](
Yv Yv
rt ˆv rt ˆv rt′ ˆv
%]-4 NwlFFt6nlGtzy bspy QplGHEpF lEp kylIltwlmwp [fi%
Spynp Jp nly nzxCHGp Gsp otFGlynp zq Gsp GpFG CztyG Gz plns zq Gsp npy!
GEztoF+ lyo CpEqzEx yplEpFG npyGEzto nwlFFt¨nlGtzy- jstF lwFz txCwtpF GslG
xpGszoF wtvp V!xplyF nwHFGpEtyr nly lwFz mp txCwpxpyGpo+ HFtyr zywA Gsp
tyypE CEzoHnGF zq Gsp olGl CztyGF-
zrtFGtn lyo xHwGtyzxtlw EprEpFFtzy JtGs DHloElGtn EprHwlEtBlGtzy nly
lwFz mp txCwpxpyGpo JtGs tyypE!CEzoHnG vpEypwF: Fpp ipnGtzy %=-“-“ lyo
PKpEntFp %]-%“- PKpEntFp %=-%$ opEtIpF wtyplE otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF HFtyr ly
tyypE!CEzoHnG vpEypw-
fEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF nly mp nzxCHGpo HFtyr tyypE!CEzoHnG vpEypwF lF
Jpww: Ftynp GstF tF qEpDHpyGwA HFpqHw+ Jp rtIp Fzxp opGltwF- iHCCzFp ËFG
GslG Jp slIp l npyGpEpo olGl xlGEtK c+ lyo wpG c ˆ kOaj mp tGF iaO
’%]-%=(- jspy e ˆ kO tF Gsp xlGEtK zq CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG IlEtlmwpF ’Fpp
ipnGtzy %?-4-%(- MHG tq V ˆ ccj + Gspy tG qzwwzJF GslG V ˆ kO= kj + lyo
spynp Jp nly nzxCHGp e qEzx Gsp ptrpy opnzxCzFtGtzy zq V- Tq c tF yzG
npyGpEpo+ Gspy Jp nly npyGpE tG HFtyr c 2 ˆ ’T } X(c+ JspEp X ˆ 0 00j
Y
tF Gsp xply zCpElGzE- jsHF Jp nzxCHGp Gsp ptrpyIpnGzEF zq Gsp ozHmwp,
npyGpEpo vpEypw ’T } X(V’T } X( qzE Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF qEzx ly
HynpyGpEpo tyypE!CEzoHnG xlGEtK- PKpEntFp %]-%4 pKCwzEpF GstF qHEGspE+ lyo
ipnGtzy %?-4-? otFnHFFpF ty xzEp opGltw vpEypw fNL qzE rpypElw vpEypwF+ FHns
lF Gsp Elotlw vpEypw HFpo ty iaXF-
Tq tyFGplo Jp slo lIltwlmwp zywA Gsp CltEJtFp ’FDHlEpo( PHnwtoply otF!
GlynpF mpGJppy zmFpEIlGtzyF+
∆=tt′ ˆ KKKt } Kt′ KK= W ’%]-=–(
tG GHEyF zHG Jp nly oz lww zq Gsp lmzIp lF Jpww- jsp GEtnv tF Gz nzyIpEG Gsp
CltEJtFp otFGlynpF Gz npyGpEpo tyypE!CEzoHnGF+ lyo Gspy CEznppo lF mpqzEp-
bp JEtGp
∆=tt′ ˆ KKKt } K
3KK= ) KKKt′ } K
3KK= } =〈Kt } K
3W Kt′ } K
3〉, ’%]-“$(
Opÿtyr M ˆ ·}∆=tt′ .=•+ Jp ozHmwp npyGpE M9

2 ˆ ’T } X(M’T } X(:
V ’%]-“%(
tG tF plFA Gz nspnv GslG V 2 tt′ ˆ 〈Kt } K

3W Kt′ } K
3〉+ Gsp npyGpEpo tyypE!CEzoHnG
xlGEtK-
OtFGlynpF lyo tyypE!CEzoHnGF lwFz lwwzJ HF Gz nzxCHGp Gsp xpozto ty plns
nwlFF1Gsp zmFpEIlGtzy JtGs FxlwwpFG lIpElrp otFGlynp Gz zGspE zmFpEIlGtzyF
ty GslG nwlFF- jstF nly mp HFpo qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ’nwzFpFG xpoztoF(+ lF Jpww lF
Gz oEtIp v!xpoztoF nwHFGpEtyr ’ipnGtzy %?-“-%$(- btGs lmFGElnG olGl zmupnGF
wtvp CEzGptyF+ xpoztoF slIp l CElnGtnlw loIlyGlrp zIpE xplyF- jsp xpozto tF
zyp zq Gsp GEltytyr pKlxCwpF+ lyo nly mp otFCwlApo- bp GEtpo nwzFpFG xpoztoF
ty Gsp pKlxCwp ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy ’Fpp jlmwp %]-“(+ lyo tGF CpEqzExlynp tF
otFlCCztyGtyr-
TG tF HFpqHw Gz nzyFtopE JslG Jp nlyyzG oz JtGs tyypE!CEzoHnG vpEypwF lyo
otFGlynpF9
[fi= %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
uLM D 07W2W NEzFF,IlwtolGpo pEEzE ElGpF qzE Gsp lmFGElnGF pKlxCwp- jsp yplEpFG
FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF pyopo HC HFtyr yz,FsEtyvlrp+ mHG ozpF HFp l JzEo,mA,JzEo
FGlyolEotBlGtzy ’FpnGtzy %fl-=(- jstF FGlyolEotBlGtzy rtIpF tG l otFGtynG loIlyGlrp
zIpE Gsp zGspE xpGszoF-
XpGszo Na PEEzE ’iP(
%- YplEpFG FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF $-%fi ’$-$4(
=- iaX $-=“ ’$-$[(
“- YplEpFG xpoztoF $-[4 ’$-$fi(
?- %!YY $-?? ’$-$fi(
4- YplEpFG npyGEztoF $-=– ’$-$fi(
| bp nlyyzG FGlyolEotBp Gsp IlEtlmwpF: FGlyolEotBlGtzy Ftryt¨nlyGwA tx!

CEzIpF CpEqzExlynp ty Gsp pKlxCwp ty Gsp ypKG FpnGtzy-
| bp nlyyzG lFFpFF otEpnGwA Gsp nzyGEtmHGtzyF zq tyotItoHlw IlEtlmwpF-

Ty ClEGtnHwlE+ Jp nlyyzG CpEqzEx tyotItoHlw G!GpFGF+ ¨G Gsp yplEpFG
FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF xzopw+ zE ¨G lyA xzopw GslG HFpF Gsp wlFFz CpylwGA-
| bp nlyyzG FpClElGp Gsp rzzo IlEtlmwpF qEzx Gsp yztFp9 lww IlEtlmwpF rpG
ly pDHlw FlA- Tq+ lF tF zqGpy Gsp nlFp+ Gsp ElGtz zq EpwpIlyG Gz tEEpwpIlyG
IlEtlmwpF tF Fxlww+ xpGszoF GslG HFp vpEypwF lEp yzG wtvpwA Gz JzEv lF
Jpww lF xpGszoF GslG oz qplGHEp FpwpnGtzy-
07-4-“ PKlxCwp9 LmFGElnGF NwlFFt6nlGtzy

jstF FzxpJslG JstxFtnlw pKlxCwp FpEIpF Gz twwHFGElGp l wtxtGlGtzy zq vpE!
ypw lCCEzlnspF- bp nzwwpnGpo Gsp lmFGElnGF qEzx ?] ClCpEF+ %[ plns qEzx
MElowpA PqEzy ’MP(+ jEpIzE SlFGtp lyo hzm jtmFstElyt ’Sj( ’qEpDHpyG nz!
lHGszEF(+ lyo UpEzxp QEtpoxly ’UQ(- bp pKGElnGpo lww HytDHp JzEoF qEzx
GspFp lmFGElnGF+ lyo opÿpo qplGHEpF KtH Gz mp Gsp yHxmpE zq GtxpF JzEo
u lCCplEF ty lmFGElnG t- jstF tF Gsp Fz!nlwwpo mlr zq JzEoF EpCEpFpyGlGtzy-
gHzGlGtzyF+ ClEpyGspFpF lyo FCpntlw nslElnGpEF JpEp ËFG EpxzIpo qEzx Gsp
lmFGElnGF+ lyo lww nslElnGpEF JpEp nzyIpEGpo Gz wzJpE nlFp- bp lwFz EpxzIpo
Gsp JzEo ˜Jp˙+ Jstns nzHwo HyqltEwA otFnEtxtylGp Sj lmFGElnGF qEzx Gsp
zGspEF-
jspEp JpEp ??–= GzGlw JzEoF+ zq Jstns C ˆ %“%$ JpEp HytDHp- bp FzHrsG
Gz nwlFFtqA Gsp oznHxpyGF tyGz MP+ Sj zE UQ zy Gsp mlFtF zq Gsp qplGHEpF
KtH - LwGszHrs tG tF lEGt¨ntlw+ GstF pKlxCwp lwwzJF HF Gz lFFpFF Gsp CzFFtmwp
oprElolGtzy ty CpEqzExlynp tq tyqzExlGtzy FCpnt¨n Gz Gsp ElJ qplGHEpF tF
yzG HFpo-
bp ËFG lCCwtpo Gsp yplEpFG FsEHyvpy npyGEzto nwlFFt¨pE Gz Gsp olGl+ HFtyr
%$!qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- TG pFFpyGtlwwA nszFp yz FsEtyvlrp+ lyo Fz HFpo lww Gsp
qplGHEpF: Fpp Gsp ËFG wtyp zq jlmwp %]-“- jsp pEEzE ElGp tF %fi0: Gsp yHxmpE
zq qplGHEpF nly mp EpoHnpo Gz lmzHG 4$$ JtGszHG xHns wzFF ty lnnHElnA-
%]-4 NwlFFt6nlGtzy bspy QplGHEpF lEp kylIltwlmwp [fi“
YzGp GslG Gsp yplEpFG FsEHyvpy nwlFFt¨pE EpDHtEpF Gsp ElJ qplGHEp xlGEtK
c ty zEopE Gz FGlyolEotBp Gsp qplGHEpF tyotItoHlwwA- QtrHEp %]-%$ FszJF Gsp
BE HT JF
problems
method
presented
propose
frequentist
bayesian
those
inference
when
variables
accuracy
values
technology
procedure
are
algorithm
than
using
bayes
predictive
QTRIFD 07W0.W LmFGElnGF pKlxCwp9 GzC =/ FnzEpF qEzx yplEpFG FsEHyvpy npy,
GEztoF- Plns FnzEp tF Gsp FGlyolEotBpo ot;pEpynp ty qEpDHpynA qzE Gsp JzEo ty Gsp
rtIpy nwlFF ’MP+ Sj zE UQ( IpEFHF lww nwlFFpF- jsHF l CzFtGtIp FnzEp ’Gz Gsp EtrsG
zq Gsp IpEGtnlw rEpA BpEz wtypF( tyotnlGpF l strspE qEpDHpynA ty GslG nwlFF‘ l yprlGtIp
FnzEp tyotnlGpF l wzJpE EpwlGtIp qEpDHpynA-
GzC =$ otFnEtxtylGtyr JzEoF+ JtGs l CzFtGtIp FnzEp tyotnlGtyr GslG l JzEo

lCCplEF xzEp ty GslG nwlFF Gsly ty Gsp zGspE nwlFFpF-
izxp zq GspFp GpExF xlvp FpyFp9 qzE pKlxCwp ˜qEpDHpyGtFG˙ lyo ˜MlApFtly˙
Ep7pnG PqEzy&F rEplGpE pxCslFtF zy FGlGtFGtnlw tyqpEpynp- SzJpIpE+ xlyA zGs!
pEF lEp FHECEtFtyr+ lyo Ep7pnG CpEFzylw JEtGtyr FGAwpF9 qzE pKlxCwp+ QEtpo!
xly&F HFp zq ˜CEpFpyGpo˙ lyo Sj&F HFp zq ˜CEzCzFp˙-
bp Gspy lCCwtpo Gsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE nwlFFt¨pE JtGs wtyplE vpEypw lyo yz
EprHwlEtBlGtzy+ HFtyr Gsp ˜lww CltEF˙ ’BTB( xpGszo Gz slyowp Gsp GsEpp
nwlFFpF ’EprHwlEtBlGtzy zq Gsp iaX oto yzG txCEzIp tGF CpEqzExlynp(- jsp
EpFHwG tF FszJy ty jlmwp %]-“- TG ozpF FzxpJslG JzEFp Gsly Gsp yplEpFG
FsEHyvpy npyGEzto nwlFFt¨pE-
LF xpyGtzypo+ Gsp ËFG wtyp zq jlmwp %]-“ EpCEpFpyGF yplEpFG FsEHyvpy npy!
GEztoF ’JtGs yz FsEtyvlrp(- OpyzGp mA FH Gsp Czzwpo JtGsty!nwlFF FGlyolEo
opItlGtzy qzE qplGHEp u+ lyo F$ Gsp xpotly zq Gsp FH IlwHpF- jspy wtyp ’%(
lwFz nzEEpFCzyoF Gz yplEpFG npyGEzto nwlFFt¨nlGtzy+ lqGpE ËFG FGlyolEotBtyr
plns qplGHEp mA FH ) F$ ”Epnlww ’%]-?( zy Clrp [4=fl-
typ ’“( FszJF GslG Gsp CpEqzExlynp zq yplEpFG xpoztoF tF IpEA CzzE+
FzxpGstyr Jstns FHECEtFpo HF- TG tF CpEslCF oHp Gz Gsp Fxlww FlxCwp FtBpF
[fi? %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
lyo strs otxpyFtzyF+ JtGs xpoztoF slItyr xHns strspE IlEtlynp Gsly
xplyF- jsp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp zyp!yplEpFG yptrsmzE nwlFFt¨pE tF lwFz CzzE-
jsp CpEqzExlynp zq Gsp yplEpFG npyGEzto nwlFFt¨pE tF lwFz FszJy ty jl!
mwp %]-“ ty wtyp ’4(9 tG tF mpGGpE Gsly yplEpFG xpoztoF+ mHG JzEFp Gsly GslG
zq yplEpFG FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF+ pIpy JtGs yz FsEtyvlrp- jsp otΓpEpynp FppxF
Gz mp Gsp FGlyolEotBlGtzy zq plns qplGHEp GslG tF ozyp ty yplEpFG FsEHyvpy
npyGEztoF- jstF FGlyolEotBlGtzy tF txCzEGlyG spEp+ lyo EpDHtEpF lnnpFF Gz
Gsp tyotItoHlw qplGHEp IlwHpF- YplEpFG npyGEztoF HFpF l FCspEtnlw xpGEtn+ lyo
EpwtpF zy Gsp qlnG GslG Gsp qplGHEpF lEp ty FtxtwlE HytGF- jsp FHCCzEG IpnGzE
xlnstyp pFGtxlGpF l wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy zq Gsp qplGHEpF lyo nly mpGGpE oplw
JtGs HyFGlyolEotBpo qplGHEpF-
07-” Strs,OtxpyFtzylw hprEpFFtzy9 iHCpEItFpo

fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF
Ty GstF FpnGtzy Jp opFnEtmp l FtxCwp lCCEzlns Gz EprEpFFtzy lyo rpypElwtBpo
EprEpFFtzy GslG tF pFCpntlwwA HFpqHw Jspy C ≫ Y - bp twwHFGElGp Gsp xpGszo
zy lyzGspE xtnEzlEElA olGl pKlxCwp- jsp olGl tF Glvpy qEzx hzFpyJlwo
pG lw- ’=$$=( lyo nzyFtFGF zq =?$ FlxCwpF qEzx ClGtpyGF JtGs otΓHFp wlErp
M!npww wAxCszxl ’O MN (+ JtGs rpyp pKCEpFFtzy xplFHEpxpyGF qzE fi“––
rpypF- jsp zHGnzxp tF FHEItIlw Gtxp+ ptGspE zmFpEIpo zE EtrsG npyFzEpo- bp
ElyozxwA otItopo Gsp wAxCszxl FlxCwpF tyGz l GEltytyr FpG zq FtBp %[$ lyo
l GpFG FpG zq FtBp ]$-
LwGszHrs FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF tF HFpqHw qzE wtyplE EprEpFFtzy+
tGF xzFG tyGpEpFGtyr lCCwtnlGtzyF xlA mp ty FHEItIlw FGHotpF+ Jstns tF Gsp
qznHF zq GstF pKlxCwp-
bp slIp yzG ApG otFnHFFpo EprEpFFtzy JtGs npyFzEpo FHEItIlw olGl ty GstF
mzzv: tG EpCEpFpyGF l rpypElwtBpo qzEx zq EprEpFFtzy ty Jstns Gsp zHGnzxp
IlEtlmwp ’FHEItIlw Gtxp( tF zywA ClEGwA zmFpEIpo qzE Fzxp tyotItoHlwF- iHC!
CzFp qzE pKlxCwp Jp nlEEA zHG l xpotnlw FGHoA GslG wlFGF qzE “[4 olAF+ lyo
qzE FtxCwtntGA lww FHmupnGF lEp EpnEHtGpo zy olA zyp- bp xtrsG zmFpEIp zyp
tyotItoHlw Gz otp =$$ olAF lqGpE Gsp FGlEG zq Gsp FGHoA- LyzGspE tyotIto!
Hlw xtrsG FGtww mp lwtIp lG “[4 olAF Jspy Gsp FGHoA pyoF- jstF tyotItoHlw
tF Flto Gz mp ˜EtrsG npyFzEpo˙ lG “[4 olAF- bp vyzJ zywA GslG sp zE Fsp
wtIpo lG wplFG “[4 olAF- LwGszHrs Jp oz yzG vyzJ szJ wzyr ClFG “[4 olAF
Gsp tyotItoHlw lnGHlwwA wtIpo+ Gsp npyFzEpo zmFpEIlGtzy tF FGtww tyqzExlGtIp-
jstF tF twwHFGElGpo ty QtrHEp %]-%%- QtrHEp %]-%= FszJF Gsp FHEItIlw nHEIp
pFGtxlGpo mA Gsp VlCwly8XptpE xpGszo qzE Gsp ]$ ClGtpyGF ty Gsp GpFG FpG-
ipp qzE pKlxCwp Vlwm7ptFns lyo fEpyGtnp ’%–]$( qzE l opFnEtCGtzy zq Gsp
VlCwly8XptpE xpGszo-
ZHE zmupnGtIp ty GstF pKlxCwp tF Gz ÿo l FpG zq qplGHEpF ’rpypF( GslG
nly CEpotnG Gsp FHEItIlw zq ly tyopCpyopyG FpG zq ClGtpyGF- jstF nzHwo mp
%]-[ Strs,OtxpyFtzylw hprEpFFtzy9 iHCpEItFpo fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF [fi4
3
Patient
0 100 200 300 365
Time(days)
QTRIFD 07W00W NpyFzEpo FHEItIlw olGl- QzE twwHFGElGtzy GspEp lEp qzHE ClGtpyGF-
jsp 6EFG lyo GstEo ClGtpyGF otp mpqzEp Gsp FGHoA pyoF- jsp Fpnzyo ClGtpyG tF lwtIp
lG Gsp pyo zq Gsp FGHoA ’“[4 olAF(+ Jstwp Gsp qzHEGs ClGtpyG tF wzFG Gz qzwwzJ,HC
mpqzEp Gsp FGHoA pyoF- QzE pKlxCwp+ GstF ClGtpyG xtrsG slIp xzIpo zHG zq Gsp
nzHyGEA- jsp FHEItIlw GtxpF qzE ClGtpyGF GJz lyo qzHE lEp Flto Gz mp 2npyFzEpo-5
iSoutulv rS nFtc
1.0
0.8
l
0.6
l
fE’j ≥ R(
ll lll
lll l
ll
ll l l ll l lllll
0.4
l ll l l l l
0.2
0.0
0 5 10 15 20
czyGsF R
QTRIFD 07W01W AxCszxl olGl- jsp VlCwly8cptpE pFGtxlGp zq Gsp FHEItIlw

qHynGtzy qzE Gsp ]/ ClGtpyGF ty Gsp GpFG FpG+ lwzyr JtGs zyp,FGlyolEo,pEEzE nHEIpF-
jsp nHEIp pFGtxlGpF Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA zq FHEItItyr ClFG R xzyGsF- jsp GtnvF tyotnlGp
npyFzEpo zmFpEIlGtzyF-
[fi[ %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
y
y
Poor Cell Type Good Cell Type
p
Survival Time
QTRIFD 07W02W kyopEwAtyr nzynpCGHlw xzopw qzE FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCz,

ypyGF- jspEp lEp GJz npww GACpF+ lyo ClGtpyGF JtGs Gsp rzzo npww GACp wtIp wzyrpE zy
Gsp lIpElrp- iHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF pFGtxlGp Gsp npww GACp+ mA lIpElrtyr
Gsp pKCEpFFtzy zq rpypF GslG Ep7pnG tG-
HFpqHw lF l CEzryzFGtn tyotnlGzE Gz lto ty nszzFtyr GEplGxpyGF+ zE Gz spwC

HyopEFGlyo Gsp mtzwzrtnlw mlFtF qzE Gsp otFplFp-
jsp HyopEwAtyr nzynpCGHlw xzopw qzE FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF
tF FszJy ty QtrHEp %]-%“- bp txlrtyp GslG GspEp lEp GJz npww GACpF+ lyo
ClGtpyGF JtGs Gsp rzzo npww GACp wtIp wzyrpE zy Gsp lIpElrp- SzJpIpE GspEp
tF nzyFtopElmwp zIpEwlC ty Gsp GJz FpGF zq FHEItIlw GtxpF- bp xtrsG Gstyv
zq FHEItIlw Gtxp lF l ˜yztFA FHEEzrlGp˙ qzE npww GACp- L qHwwA FHCpEItFpo
lCCEzlns JzHwo rtIp Gsp xzFG JptrsG Gz GszFp rpypF slItyr Gsp FGEzyrpFG
EpwlGtzyFstC JtGs FHEItIlw- jspFp rpypF lEp ClEGtlwwA+ mHG yzG CpEqpnGwA+ Ep!
wlGpo Gz npww GACp- Tq Jp nzHwo tyFGplo otFnzIpE Gsp HyopEwAtyr npww GACpF zq
Gsp ClGtpyGF+ zqGpy Ep7pnGpo mA l FtBlmwp FtrylGHEp zq rpypF lnGtyr GzrpGspE
ty ClGsJlAF+ Gspy Jp xtrsG oz l mpGGpE uzm zq CEpotnGtyr ClGtpyG FHEItIlw-
LwGszHrs Gsp npww GACp ty QtrHEp %]-%“ tF otFnEpGp+ tG tF HFpqHw Gz txlrtyp
l nzyGtyHzHF npww GACp+ opÿp mA Fzxp wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy zq Gsp qplGHEpF-
bp Jtww pFGtxlGp Gsp npww GACp lF l nzyGtyHzHF DHlyGtGA+ lyo Gspy otFnEpGtBp
tG qzE otFCwlA lyo tyGpECEpGlGtzy-
SzJ nly Jp ÿo Gsp wtyplE nzxmtylGtzy GslG opÿpF Gsp txCzEGlyG HyopE!
wAtyr npww GACpF¯ fEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lylwAFtF ’ipnGtzy %?-4( tF ly pΓpnGtIp
xpGszo qzE ÿotyr wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF zq qplGHEpF GslG pKstmtG wlErp IlEtl!
Gtzy ty l olGlFpG- MHG JslG Jp Fppv spEp lEp wtyplE nzxmtylGtzyF JtGs mzGs
strs IlEtlynp lyo Ftryt¨nlyG nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp zHGnzxp- jsp wzJpE EtrsG
Clypw zq QtrHEp %]-%? FszJF Gsp EpFHwG zq lCCwAtyr FGlyolEo CEtyntClw nzx!
CzypyGF ty GstF pKlxCwp: Gsp wplotyr nzxCzypyG ozpF yzG nzEEpwlGp FGEzyrwA
JtGs FHEItIlw ’opGltwF lEp rtIpy ty Gsp ¨rHEp nlCGtzy(-
Spynp Jp JlyG Gz pynzHElrp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG lylwAFtF Gz ÿo wtyplE
nzxmtylGtzyF zq qplGHEpF GslG slIp strs nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp zHGnzxp- jz
oz GstF+ Jp EpFGEtnG lGGpyGtzy Gz qplGHEpF Jstns mA GspxFpwIpF slIp l FtB!
lmwp nzEEpwlGtzy JtGs Gsp zHGnzxp- jstF tF FHxxlEtBpo ty Gsp FHCpEItFpo
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF LwrzEtGsx %]-%+ lyo twwHFGElGpo ty QtrHEp %]-%?-
jsp opGltwF ty FGpCF ’%( lyo ’=m( Jtww opCpyo zy Gsp GACp zq zHGnzxp
IlEtlmwp- QzE l FGlyolEo EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx+ Jp HFp Gsp HytIlEtlGp wtyplE
wplFG FDHlEpF nzpffntpyGF ty FGpC ’%( lyo l wtyplE wplFG FDHlEpF xzopw ty
%]-[ Strs,OtxpyFtzylw hprEpFFtzy9 iHCpEItFpo fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF [fifi
Supervised PC Best Single Gene
1.0
low score
high score
0.8
Probability of Survival
1
0.6
0.4
0.2
P=0.15
0.0
27 0 5 10 15 20
Supervised Principal Component − 27 Genes
1.0
Genes
0.8
0.6
50
0.4
7350
0.2
0.0 P=0.006
0 5 10 15 20
Principal Component − 7399 Genes

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
P=0.14
7399
0.0
1 80 160 0 2 4 0 5 10 15 20
Patients Absolute Cox Score Months
QTRIFD 07W03W iHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF zy Gsp wAxCszxl olGl- jsp

wpqG Clypw FszJF l splGxlC zq l FHmFpG zq Gsp rpyp,pKCEpFFtzy GEltytyr olGl- jsp
EzJF lEp zEopEpo mA Gsp xlrytGHop zq Gsp HytIlEtlGp NzK,FnzEp+ FszJy ty Gsp xto,
owp IpEGtnlw nzwHxy- jsp GzC 4/ lyo mzGGzx 4/ rpypF lEp FszJy- jsp FHCpEItFpo
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG HFpF Gsp GzC =fi rpypF ’nszFpy mA %/,qzwo Na(- TG tF EpCEp,
FpyGpo mA Gsp mlE lG Gsp GzC zq Gsp splGxlC+ lyo tF HFpo Gz zEopE Gsp nzwHxyF
zq Gsp pKCEpFFtzy xlGEtK- Ty lootGtzy+ plns EzJ tF xHwGtCwtpo mA Gsp Ftry zq Gsp
NzK,FnzEp- jsp xtoowp Clypw zy Gsp EtrsG FszJF Gsp FHEItIlw nHEIpF zy Gsp GpFG
olGl Jspy Jp nEplGp l wzJ lyo strs rEzHC mA FCwtGGtyr GstF FHCpEItFpo fN lG BpEz
’GEltytyr olGl xply(- jsp nHEIpF lEp Jpww FpClElGpo+ lF tyotnlGpo mA Gsp C,IlwHp
qzE Gsp wzr,Elyv GpFG- jsp GzC Clypw ozpF Gsp Flxp+ HFtyr Gsp GzC,FnzEtyr rpyp zy
Gsp GEltytyr olGl- jsp nHEIpF lEp FzxpJslG FpClElGpo+ mHG yzG Ftryt6nlyGwA- jsp
mzGGzx Clypw HFpF Gsp 6EFG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG zy lww Gsp rpypF+ lyo Gsp FpClEl,
Gtzy tF lwFz CzzE- Plns zq Gsp GzC rpypF nly mp tyGpECEpGpo lF yztFA FHEEzrlGpF qzE
l wlGpyG HyopEwAtyr npww,GACp nslElnGpEtFGtn+ lyo FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF
HFpF Gspx lww Gz pFGtxlGp GstF wlGpyG qlnGzE-
[fi] %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
LwrzEtGsx 07-0 iHCpEItFpo fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF-

%- NzxCHGp Gsp FGlyolEotBpo HytIlEtlGp EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyGF qzE Gsp
zHGnzxp lF l qHynGtzy zq plns qplGHEp FpClElGpwA-
=- QzE plns IlwHp zq Gsp GsEpFszwo θ qEzx Gsp wtFG $ ≤ θ0 ı θ= ı ± ± ± ı θV 9
’l( QzEx l EpoHnpo olGl xlGEtK nzyFtFGtyr zq zywA GszFp qplGHEpF

JszFp HytIlEtlGp nzpffntpyG pKnppoF θ ty lmFzwHGp IlwHp+ lyo
nzxCHGp Gsp ËFG x CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF zq GstF xlGEtK-
’m( kFp GspFp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF ty l EprEpFFtzy xzopw Gz CEpotnG
Gsp zHGnzxp-
“- ftnv θ ’lyo x( mA nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy-
FGpC ’=m(- QzE FHEItIlw CEzmwpxF+ NzK&F CEzCzEGtzylw slBlEoF EprEpFFtzy

xzopw tF JtopwA HFpo: spynp Jp HFp Gsp FnzEp GpFG qEzx GstF xzopw ty FGpC ’%(
lyo Gsp xHwGtIlEtlGp NzK xzopw ty FGpC ’=m(- jsp opGltwF lEp yzG pFFpyGtlw
qzE HyopEFGlyotyr Gsp mlFtn xpGszo: GspA xlA mp qzHyo ty MltE pG lw- ’=$$[(-
QtrHEp %]-%? FszJF Gsp EpFHwGF zq FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF ty GstF
pKlxCwp- bp HFpo l NzK!FnzEp nHGzΓ zq “-4“+ Atpwotyr =fi rpypF+ JspEp Gsp
IlwHp “-4“ JlF qzHyo GsEzHrs %$!qzwo nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy- bp Gspy nzxCHGpo
Gsp ËFG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG ’x ˆ %( HFtyr uHFG GstF FHmFpG zq Gsp olGl+
lF Jpww lF tGF IlwHp qzE plns zq Gsp GpFG zmFpEIlGtzyF- bp tynwHopo GstF lF
l DHlyGtGlGtIp CEpotnGzE ty l NzK EprEpFFtzy xzopw+ lyo tGF wtvpwtszzo!ElGtz
Ftryt¨nlynp JlF C ˆ $,$$4- bspy otnszGzxtBpo ’HFtyr Gsp xply FnzEp zy
Gsp GEltytyr olGl lF l GsEpFszwo(+ tG nwplEwA FpClElGpF Gsp ClGtpyGF ty Gsp
GpFG FpG tyGz wzJ lyo strs EtFv rEzHCF ’xtoowp!EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp %]-%?+
C ˆ $,$$[(-
jsp GzC!EtrsG Clypw zq QtrHEp %]-%? HFpF Gsp GzC FnzEtyr rpyp ’otnszG!
zxtBpo( lwzyp lF l CEpotnGzE zq FHEItIlw- TG tF yzG Ftryt¨nlyG zy Gsp GpFG FpG-
tvpJtFp+ Gsp wzJpE!EtrsG Clypw FszJF Gsp otnszGzxtBpo CEtyntClw nzxCz!
ypyG HFtyr lww Gsp GEltytyr olGl+ Jstns tF lwFz yzG Ftryt¨nlyG-
ZHE CEznpoHEp lwwzJF x / % CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF ty FGpC ’=l(- SzJpIpE+
Gsp FHCpEItFtzy ty FGpC ’%( pynzHElrpF Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF Gz lwtry
JtGs Gsp zHGnzxp+ lyo GsHF ty xzFG nlFpF zywA Gsp ËFG zE ËFG qpJ nzx!
CzypyGF Gpyo Gz mp HFpqHw qzE CEpotnGtzy- Ty Gsp xlGspxlGtnlw opIpwzCxpyG
mpwzJ+ Jp nzyFtopE zywA Gsp ËFG nzxCzypyG+ mHG pKGpyFtzyF Gz xzEp Gsly
zyp nzxCzypyG nly mp opEtIpo ty l FtxtwlE JlA-
07-”-0 NzyypnGtzy Gz lGpyG,alEtlmwp czopwtyr

L qzExlw nzyypnGtzy mpGJppy FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lyo Gsp Hy!
opEwAtyr npww GACp xzopw ’QtrHEp %]-%“( nly mp Fppy GsEzHrs l wlGpyG IlEtlmwp
xzopw qzE Gsp olGl- iHCCzFp Jp slIp l EpFCzyFp IlEtlmwp d Jstns tF EpwlGpo
%]-[ Strs,OtxpyFtzylw hprEpFFtzy9 iHCpEItFpo fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF [fi–
Gz ly HyopEwAtyr wlGpyG IlEtlmwp k mA l wtyplE xzopw
d ˆ β$ ) β0 k ) ε, ’%]-“=(
Ty lootGtzy+ Jp slIp xplFHEpxpyGF zy l FpG zq qplGHEpF cH tyopKpo mA u ∈ D

’qzE ClGsJlA(+ qzE Jstns
cH ˆ α$H ) α0H k ) ǫH W u ∈ D, ’%]-““(
jsp pEEzEF ε lyo ǫH lEp lFFHxpo Gz slIp xply BpEz lyo lEp tyopCpyopyG zq
lww zGspE Elyozx IlEtlmwpF ty GsptE EpFCpnGtIp xzopwF-
bp lwFz slIp xlyA lootGtzylw qplGHEpF cv + v 0∈ D Jstns lEp tyopCpyopyG
zq k - bp JzHwo wtvp Gz topyGtqA D+ pFGtxlGp k + lyo spynp ¨G Gsp CEpotn!
Gtzy xzopw ’%]-“=(- jstF tF l FCpntlw nlFp zq l wlGpyG!FGEHnGHEp xzopw+ zE
Ftyrwp!nzxCzypyG qlnGzE!lylwAFtF xzopw ’XlEotl pG lw-+ %–fi–+ Fpp lwFz ipn!
Gtzy %?-fi(- jsp wlGpyG qlnGzE k tF l nzyGtyHzHF IpEFtzy zq Gsp npww GACp
nzynpCGHlwtBpo ty QtrHEp %]-%“-
jsp FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG lwrzEtGsx nly mp Fppy lF l xpGszo
qzE ¨GGtyr GstF xzopw9
| jsp FnEppytyr FGpC ’%( pFGtxlGpF Gsp FpG D-
| RtIpy D+P Gsp wlErpFG CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG ty FGpC ’=l( pFGtxlGpF Gsp
wlGpyG qlnGzE k -
| QtylwwA+ Gsp EprEpFFtzy ¨G ty FGpC ’=m( pFGtxlGpF Gsp nzpffntpyG ty

xzopw ’%]-“=(-
iGpC ’%( tF ylGHElw+ Ftynp zy lIpElrp Gsp EprEpFFtzy nzpffntpyG tF yzyBpEz

zywA tq α0H tF yzy!BpEz- Spynp GstF FGpC FszHwo FpwpnG Gsp qplGHEpF u ∈ D-
iGpC ’=l( tF ylGHElw tq Jp lFFHxp GslG Gsp pEEzEF ǫH slIp l RlHFFtly otF!
GEtmHGtzy+ JtGs Gsp Flxp IlEtlynp- Ty GstF nlFp Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG tF
Gsp xlKtxHx wtvpwtszzo pFGtxlGp qzE Gsp Ftyrwp qlnGzE xzopw ’XlEotl pG
lw-+ %–fi–(- jsp EprEpFFtzy ty ’=m( tF ly zmItzHF ÿlw FGpC-
iHCCzFp GspEp lEp l GzGlw zq C qplGHEpF+ JtGs C0 qplGHEpF ty Gsp EpwpIlyG FpG
D- jspy tq C lyo C0 rEzJ mHG C0 tF Fxlww EpwlGtIp Gz C+ zyp nly FszJ ’HyopE
EplFzylmwp nzyotGtzyF( GslG Gsp wplotyr FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG
tF nzyFtFGpyG qzE Gsp HyopEwAtyr wlGpyG qlnGzE- jsp HFHlw wplotyr CEtyntClw
nzxCzypyG xlA yzG mp nzyFtFGpyG+ Ftynp tG nly mp nzyGlxtylGpo mA Gsp
CEpFpynp zq l wlErp yHxmpE zq ˜yztFp˙ qplGHEpF-
QtylwwA+ FHCCzFp GslG Gsp GsEpFszwo HFpo ty FGpC ’%( zq Gsp FHCpEItFpo
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG CEznpoHEp AtpwoF l wlErp yHxmpE zq qplGHEpF qzE nzx!
CHGlGtzy zq Gsp CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG- jspy qzE tyGpECEpGlGtzylw CHECzFpF+ lF
Jpww lF qzE CElnGtnlw HFpF+ Jp JzHwo wtvp Fzxp JlA zq ÿotyr l EpoHnpo l FpG
zq qplGHEpF GslG lCCEzKtxlGpF Gsp xzopw- fEp!nzyotGtzytyr ’ipnGtzy %]-[-“(
tF zyp JlA zq oztyr GstF-
[]/ %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
07-”-1 hpwlGtzyFstC JtGs flEGtlw plFG iDHlEpF

iHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF tF nwzFpwA EpwlGpo Gz ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF
EprEpFFtzy ’ipnGtzy “-4-=(- MltE pG lw- ’=$$[( qzHyo GslG Gsp vpA Gz Gsp rzzo
CpEqzExlynp zq FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF JlF Gsp ¨wGpEtyr zHG zq
yztFA qplGHEpF ty FGpC ’=l(- flEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF ’ipnGtzy “-4-=( ozJyJptrsGF
yztFA qplGHEpF+ mHG ozpF yzG GsEzJ Gspx lJlA: lF l EpFHwG l wlErp yHxmpE
zq yztFA qplGHEpF nly nzyGlxtylGp Gsp CEpotnGtzyF- SzJpIpE+ l xzot¨nlGtzy
zq Gsp ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF CEznpoHEp slF mppy CEzCzFpo GslG slF l FtxtwlE
7lIzE Gz FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF ”MEzJy pG lw- ’%––%(+YlowpE lyo
Nztqxly ’=$$4(+ qzE pKlxCwpfl- bp FpwpnG Gsp qplGHEpF lF ty FGpCF ’%( lyo
’=l( zq FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF+ mHG Gspy lCCwA f i ’ElGspE Gsly
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF( Gz GspFp qplGHEpF- QzE zHE nHEEpyG otFnHFFtzy+ Jp nlww
GstF ˜GsEpFszwopo f i-˙
jsEpFszwopo f i nly mp ItpJpo lF l yztFA IpEFtzy zq FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw
nzxCzypyGF+ lyo spynp Jp xtrsG yzG pKCpnG tG Gz JzEv lF Jpww ty CElnGtnp-
LFFHxp Gsp IlEtlmwpF lEp lww FGlyolEotBpo- jsp ËFG f i IlEtlGp slF Gsp
qzEx
∑
Bˆ 〈AW KH 〉KH W ’%]-“?(
H∈Z
lyo nly mp GszHrsG zq lF ly pFGtxlGp zq Gsp wlGpyG qlnGzE k ty xzopw ’%]-““(-

Ty nzyGElFG+ Gsp FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF otEpnGtzy H — FlGtF¨pF
% ∑
—ˆ
H 〈—
HW KH 〉KH W ’%]-“4(
o=
H∈Z
JspEp o tF Gsp wplotyr FtyrHwlE IlwHp zq cZ - jstF qzwwzJF qEzx Gsp opÿtGtzy
zq Gsp wplotyr CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG- Spynp GsEpFszwopo f i HFpF JptrsGF
Jstns lEp Gsp tyypE CEzoHnG zq A JtGs plns zq Gsp qplGHEpF+ Jstwp FHCpEItFpo
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF HFpF Gsp qplGHEpF Gz opEtIp l ˜Fpwq!nzyFtFGpyG˙ pFGtxlGp
— - itynp xlyA qplGHEpF nzyGEtmHGp Gz Gsp pFGtxlGp H
H — + ElGspE Gsly uHFG Gsp
Ftyrwp zHGnzxp A+ Jp nly pKCpnG H — Gz mp wpFF yztFA Gsly B- Ty qlnG+ tq GspEp
lEp C0 qplGHEpF ty Gsp FpG D+ lyo YW C lyo C0 rz Gz tyÿtGA JtGs C0 .Y → $+
Gspy tG nly mp FszJy HFtyr Gsp GpnsytDHpF ty MltE pG lw- ’=$$[( GslG
B ˆ H ) ZC ’%(
A
— ˆ H ) ZC ’ C0 .Y (W
H ’%]-“[(
JspEp H tF Gsp GEHp ’HyzmFpEIlmwp( wlGpyG IlEtlmwp ty Gsp xzopw ’%]-“=(+

’%]-““(-
bp yzJ CEpFpyG l FtxHwlGtzy pKlxCwp Gz nzxClEp Gsp xpGszoF yHxpEt!
nlwwA- jspEp lEp Y ˆ %$$ FlxCwpF lyo C ˆ 4$$$ rpypF- bp rpypElGpo Gsp
olGl lF qzwwzJF9
%]-[ Strs,OtxpyFtzylw hprEpFFtzy9 iHCpEItFpo fEtyntClw NzxCzypyGF []%
QTRIFD 07W04W SplGxlC zq Gsp zHGnzxp ’wpqG nzwHxy( lyo 6EFG 4// rpypF qEzx
l EplwtBlGtzy qEzx xzopw ’%fl-“fi(- jsp rpypF lEp ty Gsp nzwHxyF+ lyo Gsp FlxCwpF
lEp ty Gsp EzJF-
"
“ ) ǫtH tq t ≤ 4$W
KtH ˆ u ˆ %W , , , W 4$
? ) ǫtH tq t / 4$
"
%,4 ) ǫtH tq % ≤ t ≤ =4 zE 4% ≤ t ≤ fi4
KtH ˆ u ˆ 4%W , , , W =4$
4,4 ) ǫtH tq =[ ≤ t ≤ 4$ zE fi[ ≤ t ≤ %$$
KtH ˆ ǫtH u ˆ =4%W , , , W 4$$$
0
(4$
At ˆ = ± 4$ Hˆ0 KtH ) εt
’%]-“fi(
JspEp ǫtH lyo εt lEp tyopCpyopyG yzExlw Elyozx IlEtlmwpF JtGs xply $ lyo
FGlyolEo opItlGtzyF % lyo %-4+ EpFCpnGtIpwA- jsHF ty Gsp ËFG 4$ rpypF+ GspEp
tF ly lIpElrp otΓpEpynp zq % HytG mpGJppy FlxCwpF %84$ lyo 4%8%$$+ lyo GstF
otΓpEpynp nzEEpwlGpF JtGs Gsp zHGnzxp A- jsp ypKG =$$ rpypF slIp l wlErp
lIpElrp otΓpEpynp zq ? HytGF mpGJppy FlxCwpF ’%8=4+ 4%8fi4( lyo ’=[84$+
fi[8%$$(+ mHG GstF otΓpEpynp tF HynzEEpwlGpo JtGs Gsp zHGnzxp- jsp EpFG zq
Gsp rpypF lEp yztFp- QtrHEp %]-%4 FszJF l splGxlC zq l GACtnlw EplwtBlGtzy+
JtGs Gsp zHGnzxp lG Gsp wpqG+ lyo Gsp ËFG 4$$ rpypF Gz Gsp EtrsG-
bp rpypElGpo %$$ FtxHwlGtzyF qEzx GstF xzopw+ lyo FHxxlEtBp Gsp GpFG
pEEzE EpFHwGF ty QtrHEp %]-%[- jsp GpFG pEEzEF zq CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lyo
ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF lEp FszJy lG Gsp EtrsG zq Gsp CwzG: mzGs lEp mlowA
lΓpnGpo mA Gsp yztFA qplGHEpF ty Gsp olGl- iHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF
lyo GsEpFszwopo f i JzEv mpFG zIpE l Jtop Elyrp zq Gsp yHxmpE zq FpwpnGpo
qplGHEpF+ JtGs Gsp qzExpE FszJtyr nzyFtFGpyGwA wzJpE GpFG pEEzEF-
bstwp GstF pKlxCwp FppxF ˜GltwzE!xlop˙ qzE FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzx!
CzypyGF+ tGF rzzo CpEqzExlynp FppxF Gz szwo ty zGspE FtxHwlGpo lyo Eplw
olGlFpGF ’MltE pG lw-+ =$$[(-
07-”-“ fEp,NzyotGtzytyr qzE QplGHEp ipwpnGtzy

iHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF nly Atpwo wzJpE GpFG pEEzEF Gsly nzxCpGtyr
xpGszoF+ lF FszJy ty QtrHEp %]-%[- SzJpIpE+ tG ozpF yzG lwJlAF CEzoHnp l
FClEFp xzopw tyIzwItyr zywA l Fxlww yHxmpE zq qplGHEpF ’rpypF(- PIpy tq Gsp
GsEpFszwotyr ty iGpC ’%( zq Gsp lwrzEtGsx AtpwoF l EpwlGtIpwA Fxlww yHxmpE
[]= %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
1.25
Thresholded PLS
Relative Root Mean Square Test Error

Supervised Principal Components
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 ... 5000
Number of Features
QTRIFD 07W05W hzzG xply FDHlEpo GpFG pEEzE ’± zyp FGlyolEo pEEzE(+ qzE
FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lyo GsEpFszwopo f i zy %// EplwtBlGtzyF qEzx
xzopw ’%fl-“fi(- Lww xpGszoF HFp zyp nzxCzypyG+ lyo Gsp pEEzEF lEp EpwlGtIp Gz
Gsp yztFp FGlyolEo opItlGtzy ’Gsp MlApF pEEzE tF %,/(- QzE mzGs xpGszoF+ ot;pEpyG
IlwHpF qzE Gsp 6wGpEtyr GsEpFszwo JpEp GEtpo lyo Gsp yHxmpE zq qplGHEpF EpGltypo
tF FszJy zy Gsp szEtBzyGlw lKtF- jsp pKGEpxp EtrsG CztyGF nzEEpFCzyo Gz EprHwlE
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lyo ClEGtlw wplFG FDHlEpF+ HFtyr lww Gsp rpypF-
zq qplGHEpF+ tG xlA mp GslG Fzxp zq Gsp zxtGGpo qplGHEpF slIp FtBlmwp tyypE
CEzoHnGF JtGs Gsp FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG ’lyo nzHwo lnG lF l rzzo
FHEEzrlGp(- Ty lootGtzy+ strswA nzEEpwlGpo qplGHEpF Jtww Gpyo Gz mp nszFpy
GzrpGspE+ lyo GspEp xlA mp rEplG oplw zq EpoHyolynA ty Gsp FpG zq FpwpnGpo
qplGHEpF-
jsp wlFFz ’ipnGtzyF %]-? lyo “-?-=(+ zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ CEzoHnpF l FClEFp
xzopw qEzx Gsp olGl- SzJ oz Gsp GpFG pEEzEF zq Gsp GJz xpGszoF nzxClEp zy
Gsp FtxHwlGpo pKlxCwp zq Gsp wlFG FpnGtzy¯ QtrHEp %]-%fi FszJF Gsp GpFG pEEzEF
qzE zyp EplwtBlGtzy qEzx xzopw ’%]-“fi( qzE Gsp wlFFz+ FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw
nzxCzypyGF+ lyo Gsp CEp!nzyotGtzypo wlFFz ’opFnEtmpo mpwzJ(-
bp Fpp GslG FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF ’zElyrp nHEIp( EplnspF tGF
wzJpFG pEEzE Jspy lmzHG 4$ qplGHEpF lEp tynwHopo ty Gsp xzopw+ Jstns tF
Gsp nzEEpnG yHxmpE qzE Gsp FtxHwlGtzy- LwGszHrs l wtyplE xzopw ty Gsp ËFG
4$ qplGHEpF tF zCGtxlw+ Gsp wlFFz ’rEppy( tF loIpEFpwA lΓpnGpo mA Gsp wlErp
yHxmpE zq yztFA qplGHEpF+ lyo FGlEGF zIpE¨GGtyr Jspy qlE qpJpE lEp ty Gsp
xzopw-
Nly Jp rpG Gsp wzJ GpFG pEEzE zq FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lwzyr
JtGs Gsp FClEFtGA zq Gsp wlFFz¯ jstF tF Gsp rzlw zq CEp,nzyotGtzytyr ’flHw
pG lw-+ =$$](- Ty GstF lCCEzlns+ zyp ËFG nzxCHGpF Gsp FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw
nzxCzypyG CEpotnGzE A—t qzE plns zmFpEIlGtzy ty Gsp GEltytyr FpG ’JtGs Gsp
%]-fi QplGHEp LFFpFFxpyG lyo Gsp cHwGtCwp,jpFGtyr fEzmwpx []“
4.4
Lasso
Supervised Principal Components
4.2
Preconditioned Lasso
4.0
Mean Test Error
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
0 50 100 150 200 250
Number of Features in Model
QTRIFD 07W06W jpFG pEEzEF qzE Gsp wlFFz+ FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF+
lyo CEp,nzyotGtzypo wlFFz+ qzE zyp EplwtBlGtzy qEzx xzopw ’%fl-“fi(- Plns xzopw tF
tyopKpo mA Gsp yHxmpE zq yzy,BpEz qplGHEpF- jsp FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG
ClGs tF GEHynlGpo lG =4/ qplGHEpF- jsp wlFFz Fpwq,GEHynlGpF lG %//+ Gsp FlxCwp FtBp
’Fpp ipnGtzy %fl-3(- Ty GstF nlFp+ Gsp CEp,nzyotGtzypo wlFFz lnstpIpF Gsp wzJpFG pEEzE
JtGs lmzHG =4 qplGHEpF-
GsEpFszwo FpwpnGpo mA nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy(- jspy Jp lCCwA Gsp wlFFz JtGs A—t lF

Gsp zHGnzxp IlEtlmwp+ ty Cwlnp zq Gsp HFHlw zHGnzxp At - Lww qplGHEpF lEp HFpo
ty Gsp wlFFz ¨G+ yzG uHFG GszFp GslG JpEp EpGltypo ty Gsp GsEpFszwotyr FGpC
ty FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF- jsp topl tF GslG mA ËFG opyztFtyr Gsp
zHGnzxp IlEtlmwp+ Gsp wlFFz FszHwo yzG mp lF loIpEFpwA lΓpnGpo mA Gsp wlErp
yHxmpE zq yztFp qplGHEpF- QtrHEp %]-%fi FszJF GslG CEp!nzyotGtzytyr ’CHECwp
nHEIp( slF mppy FHnnpFFqHw spEp+ Atpwotyr xHns wzJpE GpFG pEEzE Gsly Gsp
HFHlw wlFFz+ lyo lF wzJ ’ty GstF nlFp( lF qzE FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF-
TG lwFz nly lnstpIp GstF HFtyr wpFF qplGHEpF- jsp HFHlw wlFFz+ lCCwtpo Gz
Gsp ElJ zHGnzxp+ FGlEGF Gz zIpE¨G xzEp DHtnvwA Gsly Gsp CEp!nzyotGtzypo
IpEFtzy- ZIpE¨GGtyr tF yzG l CEzmwpx+ Ftynp Gsp zHGnzxp IlEtlmwp slF mppy
opyztFpo- bp HFHlwwA FpwpnG Gsp GHytyr ClElxpGpE qzE Gsp CEp!nzyotGtzypo
wlFFz zy xzEp FHmupnGtIp rEzHyoF+ wtvp ClEFtxzyA-
fEp!nzyotGtzytyr nly mp lCCwtpo ty l IlEtpGA zq FpGGtyrF+ HFtyr tytGtlw
pFGtxlGpF zGspE Gsly FHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF lyo CzFG!CEznpFFzEF
zGspE Gsly Gsp wlFFz- XzEp opGltwF xlA mp qzHyo ty flHw pG lw- ’=$$](-
07-fi QplGHEp LFFpFFxpyG lyo Gsp cHwGtCwp,jpFGtyr

fEzmwpx
Ty Gsp ËFG ClEG zq GstF nslCGpE Jp otFnHFF CEpotnGtzy xzopwF ty Gsp C ≫ Y
FpGGtyr- SpEp Jp nzyFtopE Gsp xzEp mlFtn CEzmwpx zq lFFpFFtyr Gsp Ftrytq!
[]? %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
tnlynp zq plns zq Gsp C qplGHEpF- NzyFtopE Gsp CEzGpty xlFF FCpnGEzxpGEA

pKlxCwp zq ipnGtzy %]-?-%- Ty GslG CEzmwpx+ Gsp FntpyGtFG xtrsG yzG mp tyGpE!
pFGpo ty CEpotnGtyr JspGspE l rtIpy ClGtpyG slF CEzFGlGp nlynpE- hlGspE Gsp
rzlw xtrsG mp Gz topyGtqA CEzGptyF JszFp lmHyolynp otΓpEF mpGJppy yzE!
xlw lyo nlynpE FlxCwpF+ ty zEopE Gz pyslynp HyopEFGlyotyr zq Gsp otFplFp
lyo FHrrpFG GlErpGF qzE oEHr opIpwzCxpyG- jsHF zHE rzlw tF Gz lFFpFF Gsp
Ftryt¨nlynp zq tyotItoHlw qplGHEpF- jstF lFFpFFxpyG tF HFHlwwA ozyp JtGszHG
Gsp HFp zq l xHwGtIlEtlGp CEpotnGtIp xzopw wtvp GszFp ty Gsp ËFG ClEG zq GstF
nslCGpE- jsp qplGHEp lFFpFFxpyG CEzmwpx xzIpF zHE qznHF qEzx CEpotnGtzy
Gz Gsp GElotGtzylw FGlGtFGtnlw GzCtn zq xHwGtCwp sACzGspFtF GpFGtyr- QzE Gsp
EpxltyopE zq GstF nslCGpE Jp Jtww HFp X tyFGplo zq C Gz opyzGp Gsp yHxmpE
zq qplGHEpF+ Ftynp Jp Jtww qEpDHpyGwA mp EpqpEEtyr Gz C,IlwHpF-
uLM D 07W3W iHmFpG zq Gsp %=W [=4 rpypF qEzx xtnEzlEElA FGHoA zq ElotlGtzy
FpyFtGtItGA- jspEp lEp l GzGlw zq ?? FlxCwpF ty Gsp yzExlw rEzHC lyo %? ty Gsp
ElotlGtzy FpyFtGtIp rEzHC‘ Jp zywA FszJ GsEpp FlxCwpF qEzx plns rEzHC-
YzExlw hlotlGtzy ipyFtGtIp
Rpyp % fi-]4 =–-fi? =–-4/ ,,, %fi-=/ ,4/-fi4 ,%]-]– ,,,
Rpyp = %4-?? =-fi/ %–-“fi ,,, [-4fi ,fi-?% fi–-%] ,,,
Rpyp “ ,%-fi– %4-4= ,“-%“ ,,, ,]-“= %=-[? ?-fi4 ,,,
Rpyp ? ,%%-fi? ==-“4 ,“[-%% ,,, ,4=-%fi fi-=? ,=-“= ,,,
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
- - - - - - - - -
Rpyp %=+[=4 ,%?-/– “=-fifi 4fi-fi] ,,, ,“=-]? =?-/– ,%/%-?? ,,,
NzyFtopE+ qzE pKlxCwp+ Gsp xtnEzlEElA olGl ty jlmwp %]-?+ Glvpy qEzx l
FGHoA zy Gsp FpyFtGtItGA zq nlynpE ClGtpyGF Gz tzytBtyr ElotlGtzy GEplGxpyG
’htprpE pG lw-+ =$$?(- Plns EzJ nzyFtFGF zq Gsp pKCEpFFtzy zq rpypF ty 4]
ClGtpyG FlxCwpF9 ?? FlxCwpF JpEp qEzx ClGtpyGF JtGs l yzExlw EplnGtzy+ lyo
%? qEzx ClGtpyGF Jsz slo l FpIpEp EplnGtzy Gz ElotlGtzy- jsp xplFHEpxpyGF
JpEp xlop zy zwtrz!yHnwpzGtop xtnEzlEElAF- jsp zmupnG zq Gsp pKCpEtxpyG
JlF Gz ÿo rpypF JszFp pKCEpFFtzy JlF otΓpEpyG ty Gsp ElotlGtzy FpyFtGtIp
rEzHC zq ClGtpyGF- jspEp lEp X ˆ %=W [=4 rpypF lwGzrpGspE: Gsp Glmwp FszJF
Gsp olGl qzE Fzxp zq Gsp rpypF lyo FlxCwpF qzE twwHFGElGtzy-
jz topyGtqA tyqzExlGtIp rpypF+ Jp nzyFGEHnG l GJz!FlxCwp G!FGlGtFGtn qzE
plns rpyp-
3=H } K
K 30H
GH ˆ W ’%]-“](
FpH
(
JspEp K
3vH ˆ t∈Nℓ KtH .Yℓ - SpEp Nℓ lEp Gsp tyotnpF zq Gsp Yℓ FlxCwpF ty
rEzHC ℓ+ JspEp ℓ ˆ % tF Gsp yzExlw rEzHC lyo ℓ ˆ = tF Gsp FpyFtGtIp rEzHC-
jsp DHlyGtGA FpH tF Gsp Czzwpo JtGsty!rEzHC FGlyolEo pEEzE qzE rpyp u9
%]-fi QplGHEp LFFpFFxpyG lyo Gsp cHwGtCwp,jpFGtyr fEzmwpx []4
800
600
400
200
0
−4 −2 0 2 4
t−statistics
QTRIFD 07W07W hlotlGtzy FpyFtGtItGA xtnEzlEElA pKlxCwp- L stFGzrElx zq Gsp

%=W [=4 R,FGlGtFGtnF nzxClEtyr Gsp ElotlGtzy,FpyFtGtIp IpEFHF tyFpyFtGtIp rEzHCF-
ZIpEwlto ty mwHp tF Gsp stFGzrElx zq Gsp R,FGlGtFGtnF qEzx %/// CpExHGlGtzyF zq Gsp
FlxCwp wlmpwF-
( 1
4 ∑ ∑
FpH ˆ σ
—H 0
Y0 ) 0
Y= : —H=
σ ˆ 0
Y0 )Y= }= ’KtH } K =
30H ( ) ’KtH } K =
3=H ( ,
t∈N0 t∈N=
’%]-“–(
L stFGzrElx zq Gsp %=+[=4 G!FGlGtFGtnF tF FszJy ty zElyrp ty QtrHEp %]-%]+
Elyrtyr ty IlwHp qEzx }?,fi Gz 4,$- Tq Gsp GH IlwHpF JpEp yzExlwwA otFGEtmHGpo
Jp nzHwo nzyFtopE lyA IlwHp rEplGpE Gsly GJz ty lmFzwHGp IlwHp Gz mp Ftr!
yt¨nlyGwA wlErp- jstF JzHwo nzEEpFCzyo Gz l Ftryt¨nlynp wpIpw zq lmzHG 40-
SpEp GspEp lEp %%]– rpypF JtGs KGH K ≥ =- SzJpIpE JtGs %=+[=4 rpypF Jp
JzHwo pKCpnG xlyA wlErp IlwHpF Gz znnHE mA nslynp+ pIpy tq Gsp rEzHC!
tyr tF HyEpwlGpo Gz lyA rpyp- QzE pKlxCwp+ tq Gsp rpypF JpEp tyopCpyopyG
’Jstns GspA lEp FHEpwA yzG(+ Gsp yHxmpE zq qlwFpwA Ftryt¨nlyG rpypF JzHwo
slIp l mtyzxtlw otFGEtmHGtzy JtGs xply %=W [=4 ± $,$4 ˆ [“%,“ lyo FGlyolEo
opItlGtzy =?-4: Gsp lnGHlw %%]– tF JlA zHG zq Elyrp-
SzJ oz Jp lFFpFF Gsp EpFHwGF qzE lww %=+[=4 rpypF¯ jstF tF nlwwpo Gsp xHw,
GtCwp GpFGtyr CEzmwpx- bp nly FGlEG lF lmzIp mA nzxCHGtyr l C!IlwHp qzE
plns rpyp- jstF nly mp ozyp HFtyr Gsp GspzEpGtnlw G!otFGEtmHGtzy CEzmlmtw!
tGtpF+ Jstns lFFHxpF Gsp qplGHEpF lEp yzExlwwA otFGEtmHGpo- Ly lGGElnGtIp
lwGpEylGtIp lCCEzlns tF Gz HFp Gsp CpExHGlGtzy otFGEtmHGtzy+ Ftynp tG lIztoF
lFFHxCGtzyF
$ % lmzHG Gsp otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp olGl- bp nzxCHGp ’ty CEtyntCwp(
lww V ˆ 4] 03 CpExHGlGtzyF zq Gsp FlxCwp wlmpwF+ lyo qzE plns CpExHGlGtzy
v nzxCHGp Gsp G!FGlGtFGtnF GvH - jspy Gsp C!IlwHp qzE rpyp u tF
[][ %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
V
% ∑
CH ˆ T’KGvH K / KGH K(, ’%]-?$(
V
vˆ0
$ %
Zq nzHEFp+ 4] 0˜
03 tF l wlErp yHxmpE ’lEzHyo %$ ( lyo Fz Jp nly&G pyHxpE!
lGp lww zq Gsp CzFFtmwp CpExHGlGtzyF- TyFGplo Jp Glvp l Elyozx FlxCwp zq
Gsp CzFFtmwp CpExHGlGtzyF: spEp Jp Gzzv l Elyozx FlxCwp zq V ˆ %$$$
CpExHGlGtzyF-
jz pKCwztG Gsp qlnG GslG Gsp rpypF lEp FtxtwlE ’p-r-+ xplFHEpo zy Gsp
Flxp Fnlwp(+ Jp nly tyFGplo Czzw Gsp EpFHwGF qzE lww rpypF ty nzxCHGtyr Gsp
C!IlwHpF-
X V
% ∑∑
CH ˆ T’KGvH′ K / KGH K(, ’%]-?%(
XV ′
H ˆ0 vˆ0
jstF lwFz rtIpF xzEp rElyHwlE C!IlwHpF Gsly ozpF ’%]-?$(+ Ftynp GspEp xlyA
xzEp IlwHpF ty Gsp Czzwpo yHww otFGEtmHGtzy Gsly GspEp lEp ty plns tyotItoHlw
yHww otFGEtmHGtzy-
kFtyr GstF FpG zq C!IlwHpF+ Jp JzHwo wtvp Gz GpFG Gsp sACzGspFpF9
S$H ˆ GEplGxpyG slF yz pΓpnG zy rpyp u
IpEFHF ’%]-?=(
S0H ˆ GEplGxpyG slF ly pΓpnG zy rpyp u
qzE lww u ˆ %W =W , , , W X - bp EpupnG S$H lG wpIpw α tq CH ı α- jstF GpFG slF
GACp!T pEEzE pDHlw Gz α: GslG tF+ Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA zq qlwFpwA EpupnGtyr S$H tF α-
YzJ JtGs xlyA GpFGF Gz nzyFtopE+ tG tF yzG nwplE JslG Jp FszHwo HFp
lF ly zIpElww xplFHEp zq pEEzE- pG LH mp Gsp pIpyG GslG S$H tF qlwFpwA
EpupnGpo: mA opÿtGtzy fE’LH ( ˆ α- jsp qlxtwA,JtFp pEEzE ElGp ’QbPh(
tF Gsp CEzmlmtwtGA zq lG wplFG zyp qlwFp EpupnGtzy+ lyo tF l nzxxzywA HFpo
zIpElww xplFHEp zq pEEzE- Ty opGltw+ tq L ˆ ∪X Hˆ0 LH tF Gsp pIpyG zq lG wplFG
zyp qlwFp EpupnGtzy+ Gspy Gsp QbPh tF fE’L(- RpypElwwA fE’L( ≫ α qzE
wlErp X + lyo opCpyoF zy Gsp nzEEpwlGtzy mpGJppy Gsp GpFGF- Tq Gsp GpFGF lEp
tyopCpyopyG plns JtGs GACp!T pEEzE ElGp α+ Gspy Gsp qlxtwA!JtFp pEEzE ElGp
zq Gsp nzwwpnGtzy zq GpFGF tF ’% } ’% } α(X (- Zy Gsp zGspE slyo+ tq Gsp GpFGF
slIp CzFtGtIp opCpyopynp+ GslG tF fE’LH KLv ( / fE’LH (+ Gspy Gsp QbPh
Jtww mp wpFF Gsly ’% } ’% } α(X (- fzFtGtIp opCpyopynp mpGJppy GpFGF zqGpy
znnHEF ty CElnGtnp+ ty ClEGtnHwlE ty rpyzxtn FGHotpF-
Zyp zq Gsp FtxCwpFG lCCEzlnspF Gz xHwGtCwp GpFGtyr tF Gsp MzyqpEEzyt
xpGszo- TG xlvpF plns tyotItoHlw GpFG xzEp FGEtyrpyG+ ty zEopE Gz xlvp Gsp
QbPh pDHlw Gz lG xzFG α9 Jp EpupnG S$H tq CH ı α.X - TG tF plFA Gz FszJ
GslG Gsp EpFHwGtyr QbPh tF ≤ α ’PKpEntFp %]-%[(- jsp MzyqpEEzyt xpGszo
nly mp HFpqHw tq X tF EpwlGtIpwA Fxlww+ mHG qzE wlErp X tG tF Gzz nzyFpEIlGtIp+
GslG tF+ tG nlwwF Gzz qpJ rpypF Ftryt¨nlyG-
Ty zHE pKlxCwp+ tq Jp GpFG lG wpIpw FlA α ˆ $,$4+ Gspy Jp xHFG HFp Gsp
GsEpFszwo $,$4.%=W [=4 ˆ “,–×%$}[ - Yzyp zq Gsp %=W [=4 rpypF slo l C!IlwHp
GstF Fxlww-
%]-fi QplGHEp LFFpFFxpyG lyo Gsp cHwGtCwp,jpFGtyr fEzmwpx []fi
jspEp lEp IlEtlGtzyF Gz GstF lCCEzlns GslG louHFG Gsp tyotItoHlw C!IlwHpF
Gz lnstpIp ly QbPh zq lG xzFG α+ JtGs Fzxp lCCEzlnspF lIztotyr Gsp
lFFHxCGtzy zq tyopCpyopynp: Fpp+ p-r-+ OHoztG pG lw- ’=$$=m(-
07-fi-0 jsp QlwFp OtFnzIpEA hlGp

L otΓpEpyG lCCEzlns Gz xHwGtCwp GpFGtyr ozpF yzG GEA Gz nzyGEzw Gsp QbPh+
mHG qznHFpF tyFGplo zy Gsp CEzCzEGtzy zq qlwFpwA Ftryt¨nlyG rpypF- LF Jp Jtww
Fpp+ GstF lCCEzlns slF l FGEzyr CElnGtnlw lCCplw-
jlmwp %]-4 FHxxlEtBpF Gsp GspzEpGtnlw zHGnzxpF zq X sACzGspFtF GpFGF-
YzGp GslG Gsp qlxtwA!JtFp pEEzE ElGp tF fE’a ≥ %(- SpEp Jp tyFGplo qznHF
uLM D 07W4W fzFFtmwp zHGnzxpF qEzx X sACzGspFtF GpFGF- YzGp GslG a tF Gsp
yHxmpE zq qlwFp,CzFtGtIp GpFGF‘ Gsp GACp,T pEEzE ElGp tF P’a (.X+ - jsp GACp,TT pEEzE
ElGp tF P’j (.X0 + lyo Gsp CzJpE tF % } P’j (.X0 -
Nlwwpo Nlwwpo
YzG itryt¨nlyG itryt¨nlyG jzGlw
S$ jEHp k a X$
S$ QlwFp j i X0
jzGlw X }h h X
zy Gsp qlwFp otFnzIpEA ElGp
QOh ˆ P’a .h(, ’%]-?“(
Ty Gsp xtnEzlEElA FpGGtyr+ GstF tF Gsp pKCpnGpo CEzCzEGtzy zq rpypF GslG

lEp tynzEEpnGwA nlwwpo Ftryt¨nlyG+ lxzyr Gsp h rpypF GslG lEp nlwwpo Ftrytq!
tnlyG- jsp pKCpnGlGtzy tF Glvpy zIpE Gsp CzCHwlGtzy qEzx Jstns Gsp olGl
lEp rpypElGpo- Mpyulxtyt lyo SznsmpEr ’%––4( ËFG CEzCzFpo Gsp yzGtzy zq
qlwFp otFnzIpEA ElGp+ lyo rlIp l GpFGtyr CEznpoHEp ’LwrzEtGsx %]-=( JszFp
QOh tF mzHyopo mA l HFpE!opÿpo wpIpw α- jsp Mpyulxtyt8SznsmpEr ’MS(
CEznpoHEp tF mlFpo zy C!IlwHpF: GspFp nly mp zmGltypo qEzx ly lFAxCGzGtn
lCCEzKtxlGtzy Gz Gsp GpFG FGlGtFGtn ’p-r-+ RlHFFtly(+ zE l CpExHGlGtzy otF!
GEtmHGtzy+ lF tF ozyp spEp-
Tq Gsp sACzGspFpF lEp tyopCpyopyG+ Mpyulxtyt lyo SznsmpEr ’%––4( FszJ
GslG EprlEowpFF zq szJ xlyA yHww sACzGspFpF lEp GEHp lyo EprlEowpFF zq Gsp
otFGEtmHGtzy zq Gsp C!IlwHpF Jspy Gsp yHww sACzGspFtF tF qlwFp+ GstF CEznpoHEp
slF Gsp CEzCpEGA
X$
QOh ≤ α ≤ α, ’%]-?4(
X
QzE twwHFGElGtzy Jp nszFp α ˆ $,%4- QtrHEp %]-%– FszJF l CwzG zq Gsp zE!
opEpo C!IlwHpF CWH( + lyo Gsp wtyp JtGs FwzCp $,%4.%=[=4-
[]] %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
LwrzEtGsx 07-ˆ Mpyulxtyt8SznsmpEr ’MS( cpGszo-

%- QtK Gsp qlwFp otFnzIpEA ElGp α lyo wpG CW0( ≤ CW=( ≤ ± ± ± ≤ CWX ( opyzGp
Gsp zEopEpo C!IlwHpF
=- Opÿp
7 u 8
ˆ xlK u 9 CWH( ı α ± , ’%]-??(
X
“- hpupnG lww sACzGspFpF S$H qzE Jstns CH ≤ CW ( + Gsp MS EpupnGtzy

GsEpFszwo-
••
•••••••
5*10^−3
••
••
•••••••
••••
••••••
••
••••••••••
•••
••••
•••••••
5*10^−4
••••••
••••••
••••••
p−value
••••
••••
•
••
5*10^−5
• ••
•
• •
•
5*10^−6
•
1 5 10 50 100
Genes ordered by p−value
QTRIFD 07W08W ctnEzlEElA pKlxCwp nzyGtyHpo- iszJy tF l CwzG zq Gsp zEopEpo

C,IlwHpF Ciu( lyo Gsp wtyp /,%4 ± ’u.%=W [=4(+ qzE Gsp Mpyulxtyt8SznsmpEr xpGszo-
jsp wlErpFG u qzE Jstns Gsp C,IlwHp Ciu( qlwwF mpwzJ Gsp wtyp+ rtIpF Gsp MS GsEpFszwo-
SpEp GstF znnHEF lG u ˆ %%+ tyotnlGpo mA Gsp IpEGtnlw wtyp- jsHF Gsp MS xpGszo
nlwwF Ftryt6nlyG Gsp %% rpypF ’ty Epo( JtGs FxlwwpFG C,IlwHpF-
%]-fi QplGHEp LFFpFFxpyG lyo Gsp cHwGtCwp,jpFGtyr fEzmwpx []–
LwrzEtGsx 07-2 jsp fwHr,ty PFGtxlGp zq Gsp QlwFp OtFnzIpEA hlGp-

%- NEplGp V CpExHGlGtzyF zq Gsp olGl+ CEzoHntyr G!FGlGtFGtnF GvH qzE qpl!
GHEpF u ˆ %W =W , , , W X lyo CpExHGlGtzyF v ˆ %W =W , , , W V-
=- QzE l Elyrp zq IlwHpF zq Gsp nHG!CztyG N+ wpG

X
∑ X V
% ∑∑
hBmF ˆ T’KGH K / N(W P’a ( ˆ T’KGvH K / N(, ’%]-?[(
Hˆ0
V Hˆ0
vˆ0
“- PFGtxlGp Gsp QOh mA QOh ˆ P’a (.hBmF -
iGlEGtyr lG Gsp wpqG lyo xzItyr EtrsG+ Gsp MS xpGszo ÿoF Gsp wlFG Gtxp
GslG Gsp C!IlwHpF qlww mpwzJ Gsp wtyp- jstF znnHEF lG u ˆ %%+ Fz Jp EpupnG
Gsp %% rpypF JtGs FxlwwpFG C!IlwHpF- YzGp GslG Gsp nHGzΓ znnHEF lG Gsp %%Gs
FxlwwpFG C!IlwHp+ $-$$$%=+ lyo Gsp %%Gs wlErpFG zq Gsp IlwHpF KGH K tF ?,%$%
jsHF Jp EpupnG Gsp %% rpypF JtGs KGH K ≥ ?,%$%-
QEzx zHE mEtpq opFnEtCGtzy+ tG tF yzG nwplE szJ Gsp MS CEznpoHEp JzEvF:
GslG tF+ JsA Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr QOh tF lG xzFG $,%4+ Gsp IlwHp HFpo qzE α-
Tyoppo+ Gsp CEzzq zq GstF qlnG tF DHtGp nzxCwtnlGpo ’Mpyulxtyt lyo SznsmpEr+
%––4(-
L xzEp otEpnG JlA Gz CEznppo tF l CwHr,ty lCCEzlns- hlGspE Gsly FGlEGtyr
JtGs l IlwHp qzE α+ Jp ¨K l nHG!CztyG qzE zHE G!FGlGtFGtnF+ FlA Gsp IlwHp
?,%$% GslG lCCplEpo lmzIp- jsp yHxmpE zq zmFpEIpo IlwHpF KGH K pDHlw zE
rEplGpE Gsly ?,%$% tF %%- jsp GzGlw yHxmpE zq CpExHGlGtzy IlwHpF KGvH K pDHlw
zE rEplGpE Gsly ?,%$% tF %4%]+ qzE ly lIpElrp zq %4%].%$$$ ˆ %,4%] CpE
CpExHGlGtzy- jsHF l otEpnG pFGtxlGp zq Gsp qlwFp otFnzIpEA ElGp tF QOh ˆ
%,4%].%% ≈ %?0- YzGp GslG %?0 tF lCCEzKtxlGpwA pDHlw Gz Gsp IlwHp zq
α ˆ $,%4 HFpo lmzIp ’Gsp otΓpEpynp tF oHp Gz otFnEpGpypFF(- jstF CEznpoHEp
tF FHxxlEtBpo ty LwrzEtGsx %]-“- jz EpnlC9
jsp CwHr,ty pFGtxlGp zq QOh zq LwrzEtGsx %fl-2 tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp MS
CEznpoHEp zq LwrzEtGsx %fl-—) HFtyr Gsp CpExHGlGtzy C,IlwHpF &%fl-?/(-
jstF nzEEpFCzyopynp mpGJppy Gsp MS xpGszo lyo Gsp CwHr!ty pFGtxlGp tF
yzG l nztyntopynp- PKpEntFp %]-%fi FszJF GslG GspA lEp pDHtIlwpyG ty rpypElw-
YzGp GslG GstF CEznpoHEp xlvpF yz EpqpEpynp Gz C!IlwHpF lG lww+ mHG ElGspE
JzEvF otEpnGwA JtGs Gsp GpFG FGlGtFGtnF-
jsp CwHr!ty pFGtxlGp tF mlFpo zy Gsp lCCEzKtxlGtzy
P’a (
P’a .h( ≈ W ’%]-?fi(
P’h(
lyo ty rpypElw QOh tF l nzyFtFGpyG pFGtxlGp zq QOh ’iGzEpA+ =$$=: iGzEpA pG

lw-+ =$$?(- YzGp GslG Gsp yHxpElGzE P’a ( lnGHlwwA pFGtxlGpF ’X.X$ (P’a (+
[–/ %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
Ftynp Gsp CpExHGlGtzy otFGEtmHGtzy HFpF X ElGspE X$ yHww sACzGspFpF-

Spynp tq ly pFGtxlGp zq X$ tF lIltwlmwp+ l mpGGpE pFGtxlGp zq QOh nly mp
zmGltypo qEzx ’X — $ .X ( ± QOh- PKpEntFp %]-%– FszJF l JlA Gz pFGtxlGp X$ -
jsp xzFG nzyFpEIlGtIp ’HCJlEowA mtlFpo( pFGtxlGp zq QOh HFpF X$ ˆ X -
PDHtIlwpyGwA+ ly pFGtxlGp zq X$ nly mp HFpo Gz txCEzIp Gsp MS xpGszo+
GsEzHrs EpwlGtzy ’%]-?4(-
jsp EplopE xtrsG mp FHECEtFpo GslG Jp nszFp l IlwHp lF wlErp lF $,%4 qzE
α+ Gsp QOh mzHyo- bp xHFG EpxpxmpE GslG Gsp QOh tF yzG Gsp Flxp lF
GACp!T pEEzE+ qzE Jstns $-$4 tF Gsp nHFGzxlEA nsztnp- QzE Gsp FntpyGtFG+ Gsp
qlwFp otFnzIpEA ElGp tF Gsp pKCpnGpo CEzCzEGtzy zq qlwFp CzFtGtIp rpypF lxzyr
Gsp wtFG zq rpypF GslG Gsp FGlGtFGtntly GpwwF stx lEp Ftryt¨nlyG- XtnEzlEElA
pKCpEtxpyGF JtGs QOhF lF strs lF $-%4 xtrsG FGtww mp HFpqHw+ pFCpntlwwA tq
GspA lEp pKCwzElGzEA ty ylGHEp-
07-fi-1 LFAxxpGEtn NHGCztyGF lyo Gsp iLc fEznpoHEp

Ty Gsp GpFGtyr xpGszoF opFnEtmpo lmzIp+ Jp HFpo Gsp lmFzwHGp IlwHp zq Gsp
GpFG FGlGtFGtn GH + lyo spynp lCCwtpo Gsp Flxp nHG!CztyGF Gz mzGs CzFtGtIp lyo
yprlGtIp IlwHpF zq Gsp FGlGtFGtn- Ty Fzxp pKCpEtxpyGF+ tG xtrsG slCCpy GslG
xzFG zE lww zq Gsp otΓpEpyGtlwwA pKCEpFFpo rpypF nslyrp ty Gsp CzFtGtIp otEpn!
Gtzy ’zE lww ty Gsp yprlGtIp otEpnGtzy(- QzE GstF FtGHlGtzy tG tF loIlyGlrpzHF
Gz opEtIp FpClElGp nHG!CztyGF qzE Gsp GJz nlFpF-
jsp Ftryt¨nlynp lylwAFtF zq xtnEzlEElAF ’iLX( lCCEzlns zΓpEF l JlA zq
oztyr GstF- jsp mlFtF zq Gsp iLX xpGszo tF FszJy ty QtrHEp %]-=$- Zy Gsp
IpEGtnlw lKtF Jp slIp CwzGGpo Gsp zEopEpo GpFG FGlGtFGtnF GW0( ≤ GW=( ≤ ± ± ± ≤
GWX ( + Jstwp Gsp szEtBzyGlw lKtF FszJF Gsp pKCpnGpo zEopE FGlGtFGtnF qEzx Gsp
(V
CpExHGlGtzyF zq Gsp olGl9 G2WH( ˆ ’%.V( vˆ0 GvWH( + JspEp GvW0( ≤ GvW=( ≤ ± ± ± ≤
GvWX ( lEp Gsp zEopEpo GpFG FGlGtFGtnF qEzx CpExHGlGtzy v-
jJz wtypF lEp oElJy+ ClElwwpw Gz Gsp ?4◦ wtyp+ ∆ HytGF lJlA- iGlEGtyr lG
Gsp zEtrty lyo xzItyr Gz Gsp EtrsG+ Jp ÿo Gsp ËFG Cwlnp GslG Gsp rpypF
wplIp Gsp mlyo- jstF opÿpF Gsp HCCpE nHGCztyG Nst lyo lww rpypF mpAzyo
GslG CztyG lEp nlwwpo Ftryt¨nlyG ’xlEvpo Epo(- itxtwlEwA Jp ÿo Gsp wzJpE
nHGCztyG Nwzv qzE rpypF ty Gsp mzGGzx wpqG nzEypE- jsHF plns IlwHp zq Gsp
GHytyr ClElxpGpE ∆ opÿpF HCCpE lyo wzJpE nHGCztyGF+ lyo Gsp CwHr!ty
pFGtxlGp QOh qzE plns zq GspFp nHGCztyGF tF pFGtxlGpo lF mpqzEp- jACtnlwwA
l Elyrp zq IlwHpF zq ∆ lyo lFFzntlGpo QOh IlwHpF lEp nzxCHGpo+ qEzx Jstns
l ClEGtnHwlE CltE lEp nszFpy zy FHmupnGtIp rEzHyoF-
jsp loIlyGlrp zq Gsp iLX lCCEzlns wtpF ty Gsp CzFFtmwp lFAxxpGEA zq
Gsp nHGCztyGF- Ty Gsp pKlxCwp zq QtrHEp %]-=$+ JtGs ∆ ˆ $,fi% Jp zmGlty
%% Ftryt¨nlyG rpypF: GspA lEp lww ty Gsp HCCpE EtrsG- jsp olGl CztyGF ty Gsp
mzGGzx wpqG ypIpE wplIp Gsp mlyo+ lyo spynp Nwzv ˆ }∞- Spynp qzE GstF
IlwHp zq ∆+ yz rpypF lEp nlwwpo Ftryt¨nlyG zy Gsp wpqG ’yprlGtIp( Ftop- bp
oz yzG txCzFp FAxxpGEA zy Gsp nHGCztyGF+ lF JlF ozyp ty ipnGtzy %]-fi-%+
lF GspEp tF yz EplFzy Gz lFFHxp FtxtwlE mpslItzE lG Gsp GJz pyoF-
%]-fi QplGHEp LFFpFFxpyG lyo Gsp cHwGtCwp,jpFGtyr fEzmwpx [–%
•
•
• ;
••••
•
•
4
••
Nst •••
••••
••
••••
•
••••
•••••
•
•••••
•
••
••••
2
••••
•
•••••
••••
••••
•
•••••
t−statistic
••
••••
••••
••••
0
•••
•
••••
••••
••
•••••
•
••••
••••
•
•••••
−2
•
•••
•••••
••••
••••••
•
••••
•••
•
•••
•••••
••••
••
−4
• ••
•
−4 −2 0 2 4
Expected Order Statistics
QTRIFD 07W1.W iLc CwzG qzE Gsp ElotlGtzy FpyFtGtItGA xtnEzlEElA olGl- Zy Gsp
IpEGtnlw lKtF Jp slIp CwzGGpo Gsp zEopEpo GpFG FGlGtFGtnF+ Jstwp Gsp szEtBzyGlw lKtF
FszJF Gsp pKCpnGpo zEopE FGlGtFGtnF zq Gsp GpFG FGlGtFGtnF qEzx CpExHGlGtzyF zq Gsp
olGl- jJz wtypF lEp oElJy+ ClElwwpw Gz Gsp ?4◦ wtyp+ ; HytGF lJlA qEzx tG- iGlEGtyr
lG Gsp zEtrty lyo xzItyr Gz Gsp EtrsG+ Jp 6yo Gsp 6EFG Cwlnp GslG Gsp rpypF wplIp
Gsp mlyo- jstF op6ypF Gsp HCCpE nHG,CztyG Nst lyo lww rpypF mpAzyo GslG CztyG lEp
nlwwpo Ftryt6nlyG ’xlEvpo ty Epo(- itxtwlEwA Jp op6yp l wzJpE nHGCztyG Nwzv - QzE
Gsp ClEGtnHwlE IlwHp zq ; ˆ /,fi% ty Gsp CwzG+ yz rpypF lEp nlwwpo Ftryt6nlyG ty Gsp
mzGGzx wpqG-
[–= %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
jspEp tF Fzxp FtxtwlEtGA mpGJppy GstF lCCEzlns lyo Gsp lFAxxpGEA CzFFt!
mwp JtGs wtvpwtszzo!ElGtz GpFGF- iHCCzFp Jp slIp l wzr!wtvpwtszzo ℓ$ ’GH ( HyopE
Gsp yHww!sACzGspFtF zq yz pΓpnG+ lyo l wzr!wtvpwtszzo ℓ’GH ( HyopE Gsp lwGpEyl!
GtIp- jspy l wtvpwtszzo ElGtz GpFG lxzHyGF Gz EpupnGtyr Gsp yHww!sACzGspFtF
tq
ℓ’GH ( } ℓ$ ’GH ( / ∆W ’%]-?](
qzE Fzxp ∆- OpCpyotyr zy Gsp wtvpwtszzoF+ lyo ClEGtnHwlEwA GsptE EpwlGtIp
IlwHpF+ GstF nly EpFHwG ty l otΓpEpyG GsEpFszwo qzE GH Gsly qzE }GH - jsp iLX
CEznpoHEp EpupnGF Gsp yHww!sACzGspFtF tq
KGWH( } G2WH( K / ∆ ’%]-?–(
Lrlty+ Gsp GsEpFszwo qzE plns GWH( opCpyoF zy Gsp nzEEpFCzyotyr IlwHp zq
Gsp yHww IlwHp G2WH( -
07-fi-“ L MlApFtly TyGpECEpGlGtzy zq Gsp QOh

jspEp tF ly tyGpEpFGtyr MlApFtly ItpJ zq Gsp QOh+ opIpwzCpo ty iGzEpA
’=$$=( lyo PqEzy lyo jtmFstElyt ’=$$=(- QtEFG Jp yppo Gz opÿp Gsp CzFtGtIp
qlwFp otFnzIpEA ElGp ’CQOh( lF
[ ∣ ]
a ∣∣
CQOh ˆ P h / $ , ’%]-4$(
h∣
jsp lootGtzylw GpEx CzFtGtIp EpqpEF Gz Gsp qlnG GslG Jp lEp zywA tyGpEpFGpo
ty pFGtxlGtyr ly pEEzE ElGp JspEp CzFtGtIp ÿotyrF slIp znnHEEpo- TG tF
GstF FwtrsGwA xzot¨po IpEFtzy zq Gsp QOh GslG slF l nwply MlApFtly tyGpE!
CEpGlGtzy- YzGp GslG Gsp HFHlw QOh ”pKCEpFFtzy ’%]-?“(fl tF yzG opÿpo tq
fE’h ˆ $( / $-
pG Γ mp l EpupnGtzy Eprtzy qzE l Ftyrwp GpFG: ty Gsp pKlxCwp lmzIp Jp HFpo
Γ ˆ ’}∞W }?,%$( ∪ ’?,%$W ∞(- iHCCzFp GslG X topyGtnlw FtxCwp sACzGsp!
FtF GpFGF lEp CpEqzExpo JtGs Gsp t-t-o- FGlGtFGtnF G0 W , , , W GX lyo EpupnGtzy
Eprtzy Γ- bp opÿp l Elyozx IlEtlmwp eH Jstns pDHlwF $ tq Gsp uGs yHww
sACzGspFtF tF GEHp+ lyo % zGspEJtFp- bp lFFHxp GslG plns CltE ’GH W eH ( lEp
t-t-o Elyozx IlEtlmwpF JtGs
GH KeH ∼ ’% } eH ( ± Q$ ) eH ± Q0 ’%]-4%(
qzE Fzxp otFGEtmHGtzyF Q$ lyo Q0 - jstF FlAF GslG plns GpFG FGlGtFGtn GH nzxpF
qEzx zyp zq GJz otFGEtmHGtzyF9 Q$ tq Gsp yHww sACzGspFtF tF GEHp+ lyo Q0
zGspEJtFp- pGGtyr fE’eH ˆ $( ˆ π$ + xlErtylwwA Jp slIp9
GH ∼ π$ ± Q$ ) ’% } π$ ( ± Q0 , ’%]-4=(
jspy tG nly mp FszJy ’PqEzy pG lw-+ =$$%: iGzEpA+ =$$=( GslG

%]-] MtmwtzrElCstn YzGpF [–“
CQOh’Γ( ˆ fE’eH ˆ $KGH ∈ Γ(, ’%]-4“(
Spynp HyopE Gsp xtKGHEp xzopw ’%]-4%(+ Gsp CQOh tF Gsp CzFGpEtzE CEzml!
mtwtGA GslG Gsp yHww sACzGspFtF tG GEHp+ rtIpy GslG GpFG FGlGtFGtn qlwwF ty Gsp
EpupnGtzy Eprtzy qzE Gsp GpFG: GslG tF+ rtIpy GslG Jp EpupnG Gsp yHww sACzGspFtF
’PKpEntFp %]-=$(-
jsp qlwFp otFnzIpEA ElGp CEzItopF l xplFHEp zq lnnHElnA qzE GpFGF mlFpo
zy ly pyGtEp EpupnGtzy Eprtzy+ FHns lF KGH K ≥ =- MHG tq Gsp QOh zq FHns l GpFG
tF FlA %$0+ Gspy l rpyp JtGs FlA GH ˆ 4 Jtww mp xzEp Ftryt¨nlyG Gsly l rpyp
JtGs GH ˆ =- jsHF tG tF zq tyGpEpFG Gz opEtIp l wznlw ’rpyp!FCpnt¨n( IpEFtzy
zq Gsp QOh- jsp D,IlwHp ’iGzEpA+ =$$“( zq l GpFG FGlGtFGtn GH tF opÿpo Gz
mp Gsp FxlwwpFG QOh zIpE lww EpupnGtzy EprtzyF GslG EpupnG GH - jslG tF+ qzE
FAxxpGEtn EpupnGtzy EprtzyF+ Gsp D!IlwHp qzE GH ˆ = tF opÿpo Gz mp Gsp
QOh qzE Gsp EpupnGtzy Eprtzy Γ ˆ ·}’∞W }=( ∪ ’=W ∞(•- jsHF Gsp D!IlwHp
qzE GH ˆ 4 Jtww mp FxlwwpE Gsly GslG qzE GH ˆ =+ Ep7pnGtyr Gsp qlnG GslG GH ˆ 4
tF xzEp Ftryt¨nlyG Gsly GH ˆ =- jsp wznlw qlwFp otFnzIpEA ElGp ’PqEzy lyo
jtmFstElyt+ =$$=( lG G ˆ G$ tF opÿpo Gz mp
fE’eH ˆ $KGH ˆ G$ (, ’%]-4?(
jstF tF Gsp ’CzFtGtIp( QOh qzE ly tyÿtGpFtxlw EpupnGtzy Eprtzy FHEEzHyotyr

Gsp IlwHp GH ˆ G$ -
07-7 MtmwtzrElCstn dzGpF

XlyA EpqpEpynpF JpEp rtIpy lG FCpnt¨n CztyGF ty GstF nslCGpE: Jp rtIp Fzxp
lootGtzylw zypF spEp- OHoztG pG lw- ’=$$=l( rtIp ly zIpEItpJ lyo nzxClE!
tFzy zq otFnEtxtylGtzy xpGszoF qzE rpyp pKCEpFFtzy olGl- pItyl ’=$$=(
ozpF Fzxp xlGspxlGtnlw lylwAFtF nzxClEtyr otlrzylw OL Gz qHww OL+ lF
CW Y → ∞ JtGs C / Y - isp FszJF GslG JtGs EplFzylmwp lFFHxCGtzyF otlrz!
ylw OL slF l wzJpE lFAxCGzGtn pEEzE ElGp Gsly qHww OL- jtmFstElyt pG lw-
’=$$%l( lyo jtmFstElyt pG lw- ’=$$“( CEzCzFpo Gsp yplEpFG FsEHyvpy!npyGEzto
nwlFFt¨pE- esH lyo SlFGtp ’=$$?( FGHoA EprHwlEtBpo wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy- Strs!
otxpyFtzylw EprEpFFtzy lyo Gsp wlFFz lEp IpEA lnGtIp lEplF zq EpFplEns+ lyo
xlyA EpqpEpynpF lEp rtIpy ty ipnGtzy “-]-4- jsp qHFpo wlFFz JlF CEzCzFpo
mA jtmFstElyt pG lw- ’=$$4(+ Jstwp ezH lyo SlFGtp ’=$$4( tyGEzoHnpo Gsp
pwlFGtn ypG- iHCpEItFpo CEtyntClw nzxCzypyGF tF otFnHFFpo ty MltE lyo jtm!
FstElyt ’=$$?( lyo MltE pG lw- ’=$$[(- QzE ly tyGEzoHnGtzy Gz Gsp lylwAFtF
zq npyFzEpo FHEItIlw olGl+ Fpp Vlwm7ptFns lyo fEpyGtnp ’%–]$(-
XtnEzlEElA GpnsyzwzrA slF wpo Gz l 7HEEA zq FGlGtFGtnlw EpFplEns9 Fpp qzE
pKlxCwp Gsp mzzvF mA iCppo ’=$$“(+ flExtrtlyt pG lw- ’=$$“(+ itxzy pG lw-
’=$$?(+ lyo pp ’=$$?(-
jsp qlwFp otFnzIpEA ElGp JlF CEzCzFpo mA Mpyulxtyt lyo SznsmpEr ’%––4(+
lyo FGHotpo lyo rpypElwtBpo ty FHmFpDHpyG ClCpEF mA GspFp lHGszEF lyo
[–? %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
xlyA zGspEF- L ClEGtlw wtFG zq ClCpEF zy QOh xlA mp qzHyo zy dzlI Mpy!
ulxtyt&F szxpClrp- izxp xzEp EpnpyG ClCpEF tynwHop PqEzy lyo jtmFstElyt
’=$$=(+ iGzEpA ’=$$=(+ RpyzIpFp lyo blFFpExly ’=$$?(+ iGzEpA lyo jtm!
FstElyt ’=$$“( lyo Mpyulxtyt lyo dpvHGtpwt ’=$$4(- OHoztG pG lw- ’=$$=m(
EpItpJ xpGszoF qzE topyGtqAtyr otΓpEpyGtlwwA pKCEpFFpo rpypF ty xtnEzlEElA
FGHotpF-
PKpEntFpF
PK- %]-% QzE l nzpffntpyG pFGtxlGp β—H + wpG β—H .KKβ—H KK= mp Gsp yzExlwtBpo IpE!
Ftzy- iszJ GslG lF λ → ∞+ Gsp yzExlwtBpo Etorp!EprEpFFtzy pFGtxlGpF nzy!
IpErp Gz Gsp EpyzExlwtBpo ClEGtlw!wplFG!FDHlEpF zyp!nzxCzypyG pFGtxlGpF-
PK- %]-= dplEpFG FsEHyvpy npyGEztoF lyo Gsp wlFFz- NzyFtopE l ’yltIp MlApF(
RlHFFtly xzopw qzE nwlFFt¨nlGtzy ty Jstns Gsp qplGHEpF u ˆ %W =W , , , W C lEp
lFFHxpo Gz mp tyopCpyopyG JtGsty plns nwlFF v ˆ %W =W , , , W V- btGs zm!
FpEIlGtzyF t ˆ %W =W , , , W Y lyo Nv pDHlw Gz Gsp FpG zq tyotnpF zq Gsp Yv
zmFpEIlGtzyF ty nwlFF v+ Jp zmFpEIp KtH ∼ Y ’<H ) <Hv W σH= ( qzE t ∈ Nv JtGs
(V
—H= ˆ F=H + Gsp Czzwpo JtGsty!nwlFF IlEtlynp qzE qplGHEp u+
vˆ0 <Hv ˆ $- ipG σ
lyo nzyFtopE Gsp wlFFz!FGAwp xtytxtBlGtzy CEzmwpx
 
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V ∑
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<Hv K 
xty ) λ Yv K , ’%]-44(
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Hˆ0 vˆ0 t∈Nv
F=H Hˆ0 vˆ0
FH 
iszJ GslG Gsp FzwHGtzy tF pDHtIlwpyG Gz Gsp yplEpFG FsEHyvpy npyGEzto pF!
GtxlGzE ’%]-4(+ JtGs F$ FpG Gz BpEz+ lyo Xv pDHlw Gz %.Yv tyFGplo zq
%.Yv } %.Y lF mpqzEp-
PK- %]-“ iszJ GslG Gsp ¨GGpo nzpffntpyGF ( qzE Gsp EprHwlEtBpo xHwGtnwlFF
V —
wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx ’%]-%$( FlGtFqA vˆ0 βvH ˆ $W u ˆ %W , , , W C-
—
bslG lmzHG Gsp βv$ ¯ OtFnHFF tFFHpF JtGs GspFp nzyFGlyG ClElxpGpEF+ lyo
szJ GspA nly mp EpFzwIpo-
PK- %]-? OpEtIp Gsp nzxCHGlGtzylw qzExHwl ’%]-%4( qzE Etorp EprEpFFtzy-
”StyG9 kFp Gsp ËFG opEtIlGtIp zq Gsp CpylwtBpo FHx!zq!FDHlEpF nEtGpEtzy Gz
FszJ GslG tq λ / $+ Gspy β— ˆ cj F qzE Fzxp F ∈ ThY -fl
PK- %]-4 fEzIp Gsp GspzEpx ’%]-%[(8’%]-%fi( ty ipnGtzy %]-“-4+ mA opnzx!

CzFtyr β lyo Gsp EzJF zq c tyGz GsptE CEzupnGtzyF tyGz Gsp nzwHxy FClnp zq
a lyo tGF nzxCwpxpyG ty ThC -
PK- %]-[ iszJ szJ Gsp GspzEpx ty ipnGtzy %]-“-4 nly mp lCCwtpo Gz EprH!
wlEtBpo otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF ”ipnGtzy ?-%? lyo PDHlGtzy ’%]-–(fl-
PKpEntFpF [–4
PK- %]-fi NzyFtopE l wtyplE EprEpFFtzy CEzmwpx JspEp C ≫ Y + lyo lFFHxp

Gsp Elyv zq c tF Y - pG Gsp iaO zq c ˆ kOaj ˆ haj + JspEp h tF
Y × Y yzyFtyrHwlE+ lyo a tF C × Y JtGs zEGszyzExlw nzwHxyF-
’l( iszJ GslG GspEp lEp tyÿtGpwA xlyA wplFG!FDHlEpF FzwHGtzyF lww JtGs
BpEz EpFtoHlwF-
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β—λ ˆ a’hj h ) λT(}0 hj A ’%]-4[(
’n( iszJ GslG Jspy λ ˆ $+ Gsp FzwHGtzy β—$ ˆ aO}0 kj A slF EpFtoHlwF
lww pDHlw Gz BpEz+ lyo tF HytDHp ty GslG tG slF Gsp FxlwwpFG PHnwtoply
yzEx lxzyrFG lww BpEz!EpFtoHlw FzwHGtzyF-
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nly mp zmGltypo mA l wtyplE EprEpFFtzy zq l mtylEA EpFCzyFp IpnGzE A nzy!
FtFGtyr zq }%F lyo )%F- jsp CEpotnGtzy β—j K qzE lyA K tF ’HC Gz l Fnlwp lyo
FstqG( Gsp OL FnzEp δ’K(- iHCCzFp yzJ GslG C ≫ Y -
’l( NzyFtopE Gsp wtyplE EprEpFFtzy xzopw q ’K( ˆ α ) β j K ¨G Gz l mtylEA
EpFCzyFp d ∈ ·}%W )%•- kFtyr PKpEntFp %]-fi+ FszJ GslG GspEp lEp
tyÿtGpwA xlyA otEpnGtzyF opÿpo mA β— ty ThC zyGz Jstns Gsp olGl
CEzupnG Gz pKlnGwA GJz CztyGF+ zyp qzE plns nwlFF- jspFp lEp vyzJy lF
olGl Ctwtyr otEpnGtzyF ’Lsy lyo XlEEzy+ =$$4(-
— lyo
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spynp GspFp otEpnGtzyF opÿp FpClElGtyr sACpECwlypF JtGs GslG xlE!
rty-
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GstF otFGlynp tF wlErpFG+ lyo tF opÿpo mA β—$ ˆ aO}0 kj A ˆ c} A+
JspEp c ˆ kOaj tF Gsp iaO zq c-
PK- %]-– NzxClEp Gsp olGl Ctwtyr otEpnGtzy zq PKpEntFp %]-] Gz Gsp otEpnGtzy
zq Gsp zCGtxlw FpClElGtyr sACpECwlyp ’ipnGtzy ?-4-=( DHlwtGlGtIpwA- bstns
xlvpF Gsp JtopFG xlErty+ lyo JsA¯ kFp l Fxlww FtxHwlGtzy Gz opxzyFGElGp
Gsp otΓpEpynp-
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oprpypElGp mpnlHFp Gsp JtGsty!nwlFF nzIlEtlynp xlGEtK b tF FtyrHwlE- Zyp
IpEFtzy zq EprHwlEtBpo otFnEtxtylyG lylwAFtF ’?-%?( EpCwlnpF b mA l Etorpo
IpEFtzy b ) λT+ wplotyr Gz l EprHwlEtBpo otFnEtxtylyG qHynGtzy δλ ’K( ˆ
Kj ’b ) λT(}0 ’3K0 } K3}0 (- iszJ GslG δ$ ’K( ˆ wtxλ↓$ δλ ’K( nzEEpFCzyoF Gz
Gsp xlKtxlw olGl Ctwtyr otEpnGtzy opÿpo ty PKpEntFp %]-]-
PK- %]-%% iHCCzFp AzH slIp l FlxCwp zq Y CltEF ’Kt W At (+ JtGs At mtylEA
lyo Kt ∈ Th0 - iHCCzFp lwFz GslG Gsp GJz nwlFFpF lEp FpClElmwp: p-r-+ qzE plns
[–[ %]- Strs,OtxpyFtzylw fEzmwpxF9 C ≫ Y
CltE tW t′ JtGs At ˆ $ lyo At′ ˆ %+ Kt′ } Kt ≥ N qzE Fzxp N / $- dzH JtFs

Gz ¨G l wtyplE wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw wzrtGfE’d ˆ %Kc( ˆ α ) βc mA
xlKtxHx!wtvpwtszzo- iszJ GslG β— tF Hyopÿpo-
PK- %]-%= iHCCzFp Jp JtFs Gz FpwpnG Gsp Etorp ClElxpGpE λ mA %$!qzwo nEzFF!
IlwtolGtzy ty l C ≫ Y FtGHlGtzy ’qzE lyA wtyplE xzopw(- bp JtFs Gz HFp Gsp
nzxCHGlGtzylw FszEGnHGF opFnEtmpo ty ipnGtzy %]-“-4- iszJ GslG Jp yppo
zywA Gz EpoHnp Gsp Y × C xlGEtK c Gz Gsp Y × Y xlGEtK h zynp+ lyo nly
HFp tG ty lww Gsp nEzFF!IlwtolGtzy EHyF-
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CEzoHnG xlGEtK V ˆ ccj + lyo Jp JtFs Gz ¨G Gsp pDHtIlwpyG zq l wtyplE
wzrtFGtn EprEpFFtzy xzopw ty Gsp zEtrtylw qplGHEpF JtGs DHloElGtn EprHwlEtBl!
Gtzy- ZHE CEpotnGtzyF lEp lwFz Gz mp xlop HFtyr tyypE CEzoHnGF: l ypJ K$
tF CEpFpyGpo lF v$ ˆ cK$ - pG V ˆ kO= kj mp Gsp ptrpy!opnzxCzFtGtzy zq
V- iszJ GslG Gsp CEpotnGtzyF lEp rtIpy mA q—$ ˆ v$j α — + JspEp
— lyo
— ˆ kO}0 β+
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kO-
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xlGEtK V-
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wtvpJtFp o} ’K$ ( Gsp FszEGpFG otFGlynp qzE nwlFF }%- pG Y} mp Gsp yHxmpE
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o} ’K$ (
δ’K$ ( ˆ wzr ’%]-4fi(
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tyr Gz %!YY nwlFFt¨nlGtzy- ”StyG9 iszJ GslG q—) ’K$ ( ˆ Y) o)
0
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tGtpF π) lyo π} otΓpEpyG qEzx Gsp FlxCwp!CEtzEF Y) .Y lyo Y} .Y ¯
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PK- %]-%4 VpEypw fNL- Ty ipnGtzy %]-4-= Jp FszJ szJ Gz nzxCHGp Gsp
CEtyntClw nzxCzypyG IlEtlmwpF e qEzx ly HynpyGpEpo tyypE!CEzoHnG xlGEtK
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JtGs X ˆ 00j .Y + lyo Gspy e ˆ kO- iHCCzFp Jp slIp Gsp tyypE!CEzoHnG
PKpEntFpF [–fi
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plns zq Gsp Kt ty zHE GEltytyr FpG- iszJ GslG Gsp ’npyGpEpo( CEzupnGtzyF zq
K$ zyGz Gsp CEtyntClw!nzxCzypyG otEpnGtzyF lEp rtIpy mA
B$ ˆ O}0 kj ’T } X( ”v$ } V0.Y fl , ’%]-4](
PK- %]-%[ MzyqpEEzyt xpGszo qzE xHwGtCwp nzxClEtFzyF- iHCCzFp Jp lEp ty

l xHwGtCwp!GpFGtyr FnpylEtz JtGs yHww sACzGspFpF S$H + u ˆ %W =W , , , W X + lyo
nzEEpFCzyotyr C!IlwHpF CH + t ˆ %W =W , , , W X - pG L mp Gsp pIpyG GslG lG wplFG
zyp yHww sACzGspFtF tF qlwFpwA EpupnGpo+ lyo wpG LH mp Gsp pIpyG GslG Gsp
uGs yHww sACzGspFtF tF qlwFpwA EpupnGpo- iHCCzFp GslG Jp HFp Gsp MzyqpEEzyt
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fE’LH ∩ LH ′ (fl
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MX
% } fE’LN ( ˆ % } Hˆ0 fE’LN X
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C$ ˆ CW ( + l CEzCzEGtzy zq lG xzFG C$ zq Gsp CpExHGpo IlwHpF GvH
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Gz C$ ± X. ˆ α-
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’iGzEpA+ =$$“(-
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nzxCHGp Gsp CwHr!ty pFGtxlGp zq Gsp QOh qzE IlEtzHF IlwHpF zq Gsp
nHG!CztyG-
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SGC Iclcmsr Ne Lstshrshati Ectomhmf: Sodtno FTRSHD Pnados Sharghotmh Idonid Eohdcitm

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SGC Iclcmsr Ne Lstshrshati Ectomhmf: Sodtno FTRSHD Pnados Sharghotmh Idonid Eohdcitm

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