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F LY INO

SAUCERS:
OF TH E
A N A NA L Y S IS
AIR FORCE
PROJECT BLUEBOOK
SPECIALREPORTNo.t4
l,il':'

T H I R DED I T ION PREPARED


BY
J U L Y, 1 9 6 6 DR" LEON DA VID SOI
Authorrs Note tg-Eeaders of the ThLrtl Edition:

This ner^rand enlarged ed.iilon of the HLue Book SpeciaS. Report No. 14
is belng issued because of the demandwhich has steadily continued since
th:is was first publ-ished in I956t and, whlch is ncrr inereasing because of
recent sightings. Th€ upsurg€ of natLonaJ- nagazine and televisioa pub-
liclty and trad,e books, ln the flrst half of L%r ls reninLscent of the
the great 1952 nflaprr. The author
sirnLlar perlod In I952t shich preced,ed,
states h-ere his belief that the C.I.A. was and, is responsibl-e for mrch of
this; the reader may rnakehis or her om evaluation.

l"Iary earJ.y press releases and other rare d.ocunnentshave been included
in this ed.itlon. which even the Air Force ltseLf claftns to have copies of
no J.onger. (See'p. C5.) flre Table of Contents (p. ii) shol^tswhere these
may be found. Comnents by the author appear on the first page of each of
the four Parts Lnto r,rhich this edition is divided'.

tlie authorl s files eontain nany more docuroents r,lhich night be of ln-
terost to serLous stuclents of the subJectp but whlch had to be onttted
fmrn thls book because of the prressure of sp&c€r These tnclude the ful1
39-page transcrlpt of the famous press conferenee of MaJ. Gen. John A. Sar
height of the idashlngton
Sord at the Pentagon on Jrrly 290 1952, at the
trflaptt, in uhich [e unhesitatinlly denled that,the U.S. had 8r{r sec]Bt d.e-
vlces irftfefr had no rnass and unlirnlted po,rert (See inside back cov-er for
reproduetlon of first page of transcript.)

Another iten in the fl1es ls Atr Force Eegulatiola ?oO-Z, whlch the
.Lir Foree no ]-onger issues to the publlc' (see p' c5') The author also
ltas his unclassliled notes on the contents of the 19/19ProSect GRUDGE Re-
port (See p. A1) including conplete l-ists of the cases ln
studJ-ed. that
'report,
co-rre1atlons of t[e sightlngs, remarks on each case, the officlal
caie nqmter"g and locations, etc. Another lten i.s the forr'page 1lst of,
questLons presented to l{aj6r Fotrrnet at the Pentagon on Nov. 5t 1952 (See
pp. ALrAZ) together rrith hls startllng answers.

Othar anall-able rnater{al includes copl.es of artlcles writton by the


trAnalysis of a Pre-19/*? SigHtngn
author m tThe CIA and the Saucersrr, ar
(tllscueslng the probable cause of the fioerich sightlng in tbe _Gobl hsert
in 19fl), sesuLti of d,etectlve work establlshlag the orlgin of a small-
rad.Loactive disk report€d by N.I.O.A.P.1 discussions ttopen of the Trernonton flJ-mst
artlcles 6gl nd.arnskl, electronic eounterrneasur€s, an Letter to Szueer
fiesearcherss (See p. gf), &d studies of the soulee of the recold.ing of
cod,e nessages roceivea by rad;lo by aoqualntanees of John Otto in Ghicago
in L95?o e{c. Files of correspondence with mllitary and civlllan agenciest
Consr"oss, etc., are also available.
please wr{-te f,o the publisher of this Third Edition, g! the address
show4 .gll @ [4g! outside cover of tFiF @*, . if interested ln obtainlng
copies of ary-of ttris specific rnaterial. Costs wlll clependon the volume
of requests, method of reproductionn etc. Please lndicate whether you night
be inierested in pr:rchasing a tt$ource Book on Saucersrr, containing a large
amount of this rnaterial.

July {, 1966 Leon Davidson

C0TIERILIUSf,FOTION: OfficiaL Alr Force sketch of AV30 ailppsft. (Soe P. D5.)


FLYING SAUCERS: An AnalYsis of the

AIR FORCE PROJECT BLUE BOOK SPECIAL REPORT NO. 14

By Dr. Leon Davidson

Third Edition

consisting of

Part A: Early Air Force Press Releases


Part B: The CIA Panel RePort of 1953
Part C: The Current (1966)Air Force Blue Book Release
Part D: Analysis of the Special Report No. L4

with an appendix consisting of a photo-offset copy of


the full text of the Air Force Project Blue Book
Special Report no. 14, dated May 5, 1955
and some of the important tables and
figures from that rePort

Library of Congress New Material in Third Edition


Catalog Card Numbers written by Dr. Leon Davidson
First Edition Copyright (c) 1966 by Leon Davidson
57-2610
Analysis Section of First Edition
Third Edition Copyright 1956 by Leon Davidson
66 -88 9 ?

Publishing History

Original Air Force Issue (100 copies, restricted distribution) May 1955
First Edition published by Leon Davidson 1000 copies D ec . 1956
Second Edition pubtished by Leon Davidson 1000copies Oc t. 1957
Third Edition published by Ramsey-Wallace Corp.
First Printing 2000 coPies JuIy 1966
SecondPrinting 2000 coPies July 1967

Ramsey-Wallace Corp. Ramsey, N. J. JuIy 1967


fiospectfrrlly Ded:icated to the 1ate

John Fitzgerald l(ennedy

President of the United States


t%t--t963
rf he nright l:ave been alror*ed to live through his full span of offi.ce,
the invisJ.ble goverrrmont which increasingly stretehes out from our para-
ndlitary complex would have beeu kept under better control; and
rice yerqg.

TABTEOT COMTSNTS Page lfrmber *


Authorf s Note to Read,ers Insid.e Front Cover
Part A: Early Air Force Fress Releases 'begi.ns on ?age .{?"
ReLease dated free.X, Lg49 :p" A3 n{pri3. 7p 1953 ilq,itiCI
Apri.L 3, L952 $4 ,Tu-ly i-5, 1953 ,tA0
April 25?L952 A5 ffDoe, 3953 Fact Sheet $,LI-Al,/*
Jvne L7, Lg52 A6 .t-r:'+. !954,5r.unrnary A*5*AJ.8
(cm1 Doc"l"t: 3952 w (Jct" 25, 1955 See p.Dgi
rSen. FLandirss 3et*ers $ 11e11Roarer release
Part B: ?he cra PAI']E[,Fpsrt sf tg53 begg.nn on Fege i33
Letter fron i{'a*iona} Acaderry,*"f $s*enr:es ql"
Panel Hepor4 o"f ,TanuaqyLV5j, reLeased .Aprij" j.g5$ ,'x
Letter fmm fo::lner Sir Foree Sffg.eer, i{ey ?, Ig5S :lg
Letter from Major Teckorn IISAF, May ffl, 1g5S F&
Letter fron a sci"entLst, l4ay 20, Lg58 p6

Part c: The current (1966) air Force fieLease on progeet BLue Book 0L
Sransnlttal- Letter from AS.nSorcou J"r:ne3, j"g66 $,,t
Stat*stics for ,T"965 r.t8

Fart D: Analysis of the PnoJr:et 33ue Book $pec;l.a.l fiepont No. J.d". $1
R.lblLsherle Statement ::"romRlrst and Saconei I&litions []2
Analysis bJr Sr. teon $ayidson heglns on page B/e
Atr Force Press Retreaeed.ated 0ctober 25? ZgSy $f
$rggestions to ths ltea,fler EIO
Orliginal- TttLe Page cf ^Sir !'orce SditL,:n of Beport i
Tabl-e of Oontents 8s publ"ished. bf Atr Fo:rce ;t
Ltst of fLluetra**ons as publlshed hy AJ.r Forco -,_lo,f
,Surn:nary(which a*cu.trpa:r-tedthe Sctober eSrl:gSS release) '
S'
?he srFlying Saucerrt l,Tcdcl- qS
fionchrsions, {rs puh i.s}-l*ti b.y the Air lTnr*e 68
"lFpelnrlfx A. iirn'.e:'t ,i1,1Taih"l**qi.n fr"i.r Fr:l.qg ile**g-h'"i ri::"-;ri

Fi"rs* pngc of trnnsex*i-"+lE i;ir ,:'.jxfsfea.€6* -i.,,,s;i.r.j,.:


r,.r'i:;
u::i i:la.f te'n. $sttru'ozd,8s .r:,.:t+k
"
&Lr Fsree 1?eguJ-atio.nAX3-f, {,}Il'd l,$Q*fi-), ,$ee e,,,;*;t*:ii6q}a}piige ffi. .a;*,&*
#Note.
{U. page rnunbers gfven $.n t}rts Tab3e of Gontente refer to the Sarge
handuritten numbore Ln the upper outsLi!.e corners of ttre prdnted p6g"s,
as assigired. for this EdLtion.
Part At Earlv Ai.r Force fuess Aelease$ on nlvlns Saucers. et-c,

Hi.stonr and Background of thls Collectiog

$r lnterest in flying saucers began ln l{en Mexico in L949 when I started.


wor kat@ ificL a b o rgto ry.A 1oca ] . e p 1 d e rn ic o f n g re e n f ire b a 1 1 s ' t
durC.ngthe previous year (see p. A6) had led to the forrnatlon of ons of the
first flying saucer study groups, tfrq _I1qsAle4gg S"tFph . jf sociation. This
was composedof scientists and engineEiG-In the Lab., with oF?f6i?1[-dffi6rt.
.0fter jofudng this lnfonnal grcrup, f eareful-Iy studied the secret Prroject GRUDC'E
Scport whlch had been sent to the Lab. by the Air Force to help these studies.

In tbe GRUDCTE neport (Report No. 102 AC h9/L5-]"3A, tUnid.entlfi.ed. Fly5"ng


Objectsrto ProJeet GRUDC'E, Project XS-30/*, Release date August L949r written by
tt" H.lJ.Smith and.lotr""G.W"TowIes, Alr Materiel Command HQ, Wrlght FieJ"d)rI was
greatly irryressed bg Pmf . Hyneki s chapter, in i,fiich he staterl. hLs opinion that
the greon flreballs of the Soutlwest were probably eowrected with U.S. research
acti-vitl.es. I also irnpressed $rith the ehapter W the Air Foree Chief Sci-
entiot, who concluded, "'ss
that the saucers could.nrt pgssibly bc h*ssi.an devicee, brrt
who never even mentioned the possS.bility that they might be Arreriean, linother
interesting iten in the reporb was a copy of RANDCorp. lotter T12563, March 29,
1949, askJng for access to the Air Force files on the l'faury leland incLdent
(later iliscu,ssed in grreat d.etalI in the book nThe Condng of the $aucerstt, b5r
Ken .[rnold and 8ay Pal-rnor")

The press release orr pr A3 appeared worrl-for-word in the Becommendations


seetlon of the GRUDGD report, in complianee r,rith a letter from an Air For.ee
goneral (eJso given in the report), dateAfu-.Laaue$glS49", direct1ng that the
project name be ehanged frorn SIGN to GRIIDC'E,and that the investigation be
dlscontinred by the end of L949. The re,port was issued ln August 1949.

On b€haLf of the toe Alarnos Astrophysl.cal Assoclation, I wrote to the Alr


Force requesting access to the origtnal report fi3-esn which had been rfmicro-
fiLmed for researreh usen at Wright FieLd,. I then vislted, Lt. Snith there on
l,lay 17, Lgfr, and was abLe to get sonre detalJ.s frnrc hlm, but lnstead of for*
vard,ing more d,ata to l,os Alanosr tEq ait {-oge$gL}88ts,_ogf_gopyi lqjbg.ryIlq
qgpcl"lr*and the letter on p. 43 wae sent to me. Ttre Los Alamos Lab. officlals
also ceased, then to support our sauoer researeh efforts.

In January L952 I moved to Arli.ngton, Va., and asked to inspect the saucer
fllcs at the Pentagon, per letter on p. Al. Thc repJy, enelosing trdo press re-
leases, ts r.eproduced on pages A4 and 45. f qisited. Lt. Col. Searl-es and 1,1r.
AJ. Chop at the Pentagon A.Fi' Fress Desk several times, ard e:rarained,the para-
phrased varsion of the CBUD@Report there, verlfying that rry notes made at
Los Alanos were coverred by this d,eelassified publicly available d.ocunent.

further eomespondenee follor,red, and, f was lnvited to the Pentagon in Nov.


1952 *o meet CoL. W. A. Adans and l"faJ. Devey J. J. Forrrnet for dlscussion of ry
contsntion that saucers, lf real, wele American. I p:resented.a four-page l-lst
of questionsn thc ansltets to r.rhich proved to me that the A.F. ilS.nvestigatlonrt
of saucers was eotryletely a coverbup for sonettring e1se. CoI. Adarqsasked Maj.
founret to gf.ve ne a prd.vato showing of the nTrnemontonfilnso which, at the tlme,
convineed ms that the saucers mrst lndeed be reaL. (See ry artlcle-ln Leonard
Strlngfteldrs nC.B.f.F.0. Ns,tslettern, Sept. 195/* lssue, ard see Gapt. &rppeltts
artLcle l,n tlnreil l"Iagazine, l4ay 1954..)
t, [-
'i

WhlLe working in Washirrgton ln L952t I had seen classlfi€d, photos of


a cert&ln Naqf gutded nissLle uhlch dlsproved, (to me, at Least) the ALr
Forte denlal-s that the U.$. had no devlces lrhlch looked LLke sone of the
Baueers repor"ted. by the public" l&Jor !'ouraet stated that he hten nothing
about this mLssile, and I sincerely beHeve that he really dldnrtt 0f such
stuff 8r€ U.S.A.F. saucer investlgators doprivedl

Whl.le trying to clear a proposed, artlcle reporting thls sad. state of


affairs, f lias pald a vtsit by a tean of three nen, from the Office of Naval
Intelllgence, the Arrg Counter-fntel-llgence Cor.ps, and the Inspector of
Naval I'lateriel. These three m€n assuted thernselves that I had seen the mis-
sl1"e photos legitinately ln the conrse of ry work, and tha.t I had not oor
promJ.sedsecunity procedures Ln handltng ry proposed reLease. (T?re 0.1tr.
I. manwore black, incidentally, for the infornation of those read.ers who
have hearrl about saucsr rssearoher.s being silenced after a visj.t fron
nthree nen in black.il) A letter fron Senator Flanders (p. AB) was a repLy
to ny cor:respmdence to Congress about thig nlssll-e and the U.F.O.ts.

fn Lotters to the Secretap of Defense and others in L953r f pointed


ort that the Alr Forcers attitrtd.e of ridlcu}lng and operatlonaIly lgnordng
aLL saucer sightings could alLow an enerqy to send, alrcraft or rnissiles
through our defenses easily, merely by puttlng enough flIashing lights on
then to cause thenr to be reported. as ttflying saucersn. (f personal.ly vert-
fied that this would be possible, by vorking as a voLunteer ln the White
Plaine Filter Center of the Ground. Obserrrer 9ot?g, ad, observing the treat-
ment aceorded to reports of strange objects.)

Perhaps as a result of zucb argumsnts, the Air Force revised. lts regu-
lation AI'R 200-2 in August l95ln pointlng out that saucer reports should be
taken seriously, Just in case.n.. Ib,e Air !'o:rce also stopped d.enying that
saucers might be Asrerlcan devlces, by dropping fronr its 195/r (and later)
press releases the denj-al paragraph which it had used up through 1953.
(Gorpare the bracsketed paragraphs in the press reLeases reproduced, on pages
S10, A1/*, and aI'/.) I then r.rot.e and got cLeared the l-etter shor.m on p. &19,
pointing out the nenrposltion taken by the Air Foree.

The 1953 release about the nlleLl Roarern flare (p. A20) shows a tylpical
cause of somo flying saucer reports, and firrthermore shors how 1gg1!@!g
secret ndlitary actlvlties have led, to flying saucer reports. These usually
receive funnrodiateper{\mctory denials that UnS. activities or aircraft had
had arything to do with eausirlg the repor*s. Sueh d.enial-s are properfy Jus-
tified because of the eecret nature of the aetlqitles at the tinre. lhe
Later adml"esions (as in the p. A20 press release, for e:cample) tend not to
eatch up r*lth. the original d.enials, so that zuch evrgnts get establi.shed Ln
the saueer Literature as ilauthenttcrr eases. (See qf article flECI'{+ CIA = IJF0{
in the Mareh-April 1"960Lesue of IlElFg Saucer Fpoiew (London, Engi.and).)
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DEI'AR'IMENTOF DEFEN,SE
'All
OFFTCI.]OF PUBLIC INFORMATION
Washlngton 2J t D, C.

T L953
ISSUED ABOUT DECEI\tsER

F A CT S } IEE T

T hc fol l o w l n g l n fo rmatlon concer ns A1r For ce lnvegtlgatl ons


of unr-isual ,aerl.a1 phcnomena.
T h e A 1 r F q n ce f1 .rst took offlclal notlce of r epor ts of s o-
n q ' lt o r rrl rl 'rrrrrg , g o r.i e e rs" ln the Fall of tgllT vlhen nepor ts fr o m the
r +. , *r r

p u b l l c l ncl l ca te d tha t the ,r r p.tter m lght lnvoJve the aJ- r defenge of


t h e U n l tecl S ta te s. T h e Alr M ater le] Conunand,,W r lght- Pattcr s on
A1 r F orce B a se , D ayto n , OhJ..o,was dlr eeted to set up..a pr oJec t to
c o l l e c t a n d eva l ua te a I,l ,ava,ilatr f,e facts concer nlng "fLylng s auc er "
dLr { *d d
D
^{ r 6 r r u J - r r 6 D.

T h e A l r Mate rl e l C onunand,ln tur n, obtalned bhe ser vlce g of


clvlllan a n d mi l l ta ry a str or r om er ,s,rPsychologlsts,
' electr onlcs
s p e o l A l l sts, mete o rol og lsts, aer onautlcal englneer s, and ph y s l c Ls ts
to ald ln study and r..'es.e0r.oh.,

T w o ye a rs l ate rr or r Decem ber ?' 7r 1949, af.ter J' l! r epor t ed


s l g h t l ngs ha d b e e n l nve stlgated, the A1r l,' or ce annclunced the fl nd-
l n g s of thc " fl yl ng sau cer ," pr oJect.

T h e ma Jo rl ty o f th e\ slghtlngs could be accounted for as m l s ^'


l n t e r p r e ta tl on s of co n ventlonal ob,Jects, such as balloons and al r ',
craft. Oth e rs co u l d b e explalued as m eteor "ol.oglcal phenomenaer
t l g f r t q g fl ectl on s fro m c r ystallzed par tlcles ln the upper atm os -
p h e r e . S o me w ere de te rmlned to be hoaxes. However , ther e s tl l I
remained a few unexplalned slghtlngs i

The lnvestlgatlon of unknown aertr.a} phenonrenawats bhen trang-


f e r r e d to th e A 1r T ech n lcal Ir r telJlgence Center at W r lght- Patber " s on
A 1 r F o rce B a se a s a con tJ.m r lng pr oJect.

. D url n g 19 5 2 , the bum per year for t' saucer t' slghtlfigs, 1r '7OO
r e p o r t s w ere rece l ved b y the Alr For eer .ol' lvhich fO per c.ent c am e
f r o m c l vl l .tran so u rces. Appr oxlm ately 2O .per cenb of the slgh tl ngo
w e r e un e xp l al na b l e o n the tr agls of infor m atlon r ecelved.

MORE
A1 {

D rl rl n g 1 9 5 3 , bV m ld- year , only 250 r epor ts had been r ec el v ed,


of w hl ch n e a rl y 5 0 per cent cam e fr om m llltar y Sour ces. T he num ber
of ui l cxp Ia l ua i ,,l e sl ghi;lngs dr opped to 1O per cent.

The drop ln unexplailied slghtlngs li; largely due to the Ln-


o r ea se d accu racy an d the com pleteness of r epor ts belng r ec el v ed.
T o be o f val ue , a repor t should lnclude such basJ.o data 8s s 1ae,
s ha p e , co mpo sl tl o n , speed, altltude, dlr ecblon, and the m aneuv er
p attern of th e o b Je cts. itllthout suclr 1nf or m atlon, 1t 1 s al m os t
l mp o ssl bl e to e sta b llsh the ldentlty of the obJect slghted. In
a dd l tl o n , a re ce n t study has shown a dlr ect cor uelatlor r betw een
t h e n u mi -,erof s16 4 h b1ngsr cpor ted and the publlclty glven to
"s a u ce rstt l ry th e n a tlonr s pr esg.

In o rde r to o ver com e thls lack of' bas1c data, and to s tandar d-
I z e a j .f ::e p o rts, a detalled questlonnalr e was pr epar ed by the A1r
T ech n l ca1 In te l i l ge n ce Cer r tc' r and 1s now subm ltted to eac h per s on
r ep o rbl ng a n u n l de n tlfled aer lal object. It is felt that the
l ni orrn a tl on thu s ob talned w1]1 lower st1ll m or e the nur nber of
u nexp l al ne d sl g h tl ng s.

T he nraJo rl ty o f all r epor ted slghtlngs have been fo und to


l n vo l ve e l the r ma n - nr adeobJects such as alr cr aft or bal ]ootl s , or
k now n ph e n o men asu ch ag m eteor s and plancts.

P re se rrt-da y Jet air cr aft, flylng at gleat speeds and hl gh


a l tl tu d e s, a re o fte n m lstaken for unlcnownobJeets by the untr al ned
o bse rver. Sunllght r eflectlons fr om the po]1shed sur fac es of al r -
c r aft can be se e n plalnly even when the alr cr aft ltself l s too
d lstan t to be vl sl b 1 e.
We a th e r ba l l o o ns also account for a substantlal nu m ber of
s lg h tl ng s. T h e se balloons, sent to altltudes. of 4Or O0 O.feet and
h lg h e r, are l au n ch e d fr or n vlr tually ever y alr fleld 1n the c ountr y .
T he y a re mad e of rubber or polyethylene, swe1l as they g?11 o1tl -
t ud e , h a ve ve ry g o o d r efl"ectlve qualltles, car r y sr nall l l ghts
w he n l a u n ch e d a fte r dar k, and can be seen at ver y hlgh al tl tudes .

In acldltlon to the ordtnary weather ba1loon, huge 9O-foob


b al l oo n s, w hl ch so m etlm es dr lft fr om coast to coast 2 &Ta us ed for
u pp e r a l r rese a rch. These balloons also have a hlghly r efl ec tl v e
s u rface an d are v1 slble at extr em e. altltudes.

F req u e n tl y, un usually br lght m eteor s and planets w 111 c aus e a


f l urry of rep o rts, s om etlm es fr om r elatlvely exper lenced obs er v er s .
A t ce rtal n tl me s of the year , Venus, for lnstange, ls low on the
h orl zon a rrd w 1 ]1 a p peaf to change color and m ove er r atlc al l - y due
to b a zy a tmosp h e rl c condltlons.

A pp roxl ma te l y 12 per cent of all slghttr ngs r epor ted ar e fr om


m 1I1 ta ry an d cl vl l l a n r adar facllltles, It ls fa1r ly w el l es tab-
l 1sh e d th a t so me of these lm ages ar e.gr ound obJects r eflec ted fr om
a l aye r of w a rm al r above the ear th ( lem per atur e lnver slon) .

-2- MORE
At3
T e mp e ratu re l nve rsl o n r eflectlons can glve a r etr r r n on a r adar
s c o p e t h a t 1s a s sha rp a s that r ecelved fr om an alr cr "afL. Speeds
o f t h e s e retu rns re p o rted l y r angc fr om zer o t:o far r l,asblc r ates
T h e ' r o b Jectst' a l so a p p ca r to niove ln alL dir .cctlor r s Sr "r chsi- ght-
lngs have resr.rltcd 1n nratiy frr.rltless ilitr:rt:r.ifjt efforts.

Be arl n g o u t th e the o ry of tem pcr atur e lnver sion r eflectlon ls


a n l n c l d e nt w i tl ch o ccu rre d ln Janr - r ar y.195I near Oakr ldge, Ter rnes -
s e c r ' I t '.roA 1 r" F orce a l rcraf t attenr pted to lnter ccl.r- on t an unldentl f l ed
I'ot:Jecttt
.a .Irdactu a l l y cs1" ab]1sheda r adar "Lock" thc obJcct.
T h e i n a l t l tud e at the tl n re was 71000 feet. ' I' he r - r r ildentlfled ob:
J e c t , a c cordl .rrg bo th e l r radar , appear ed to be at an elcvatlon of
1 0 t o 2 5 cl eg recs. 'Ihrcc pas$es wcr e m ade tr r an attcm pt to cLos e
o n b h e o bJect. In ea ch l n stance the pllots r epor ter l that thelr
r a d a r 1 c d the m fl rst up vrar d and then dovr n towar d a speclflc po Lnt
o 1 t f r e g ror.tnd . (O ne scl en tlf 1c thcor y holds tlr at f fgtr t can ,be
s l m l I a r l ' y refl ectu d from a layer of war m alr aboye the ear th; rf
t h i s p r o ves to .b c co l 'rcct, m any vlsual nlght slgtr ' uir r gs cour d be
a c c o u n ' u edfo r. )

There are a small numberof unexprla,lncd reports whlch lnvolve


a c o m b l na tto n of se e l ng th e obJe.ct ,and detectlng it on r adar
s i - n u l t a r r eo ttsl y. In ea ch case the obJcct appeaFeclat nlght tirne.
a n d h a d th e ap p e a ran o e of sir nple llghbs,

Ionlzeci clorrrls have proi-r,ably causcd some unlclentlfled radar"


returns. T hu n d e rston n s are tdentlf table i.,y r adar , and r adatr 1s
u s e c l a b oa rd so m? b l ri ra ft ancl shlps fo avclld thir r n. ttaclar yutu r l s
h a v e a l s o b e e n rcee l ved fr.onr i:lr ' ds, lce for m atlons ln the air ,
b a l l o o n s , g rou n d refl cctl o n s, fr equenclr lnter fer cr r r :e betwecn ptner
r a d a r s t al f9 1 9 , a n cl w l n d b o nr e obJects.- Oi;v1ousIy such r etur r is
a r "e -v c r y ' dl ff'l cul t to J-de nLlfy, espec;lally when i;liey bccur dur ,1n65
darkness.

A s , sb a te d e a r" 1 1 e r, th e dlfflcr - r l.by of e.valuatlng r epor bs o f


a J . 1 t y p e s 1s b a se d l arge Jy upon the lack of baslc data sur r or ;r r dl ng
t h e s l g h tl ng . It 1 s f cl t that the dctaJ.led questlor inair e w111
r c m e d y t h e sl tu a tl -o n 1n pa r t.

I n ad d l tl o u , spe cl al photogr aphlc equlpm ent has been deve l opec l


f o r c l l s t rl bu tl on to sel ected a1r ' base. contr ol tower s and.Alr
D e f e n s e C ornmanrad d a r s1te s. Thls equlpm cnt conslsts gf .a clJ-ffr ac :
t l o n g r a tl ri g ca mera w h l ctr s epar abes 11ght lnto lts com pone- nt,p ants
( s p c c t r u nt) a n d rcg l stcrs .ther n on f11m . The pr inc.:1ple lr r volv,ed J .s
that used by' astrorlomers ln detennlnlng the composltlotr of the
stars. T n th l s man n e r A l r F' or ce sclentlsts r nay be able to dcter -
m l n e t h e so u rce o f u n l de n tlfied } lghts. As Vet, no photogr aphs
f r o r r r t h l s carrrcrah a ve . b e e n ' r ecelved.

T h ere ha ve b e e n so rnem lsconceptlons concer nlng the A1r Fo r c e


h a n d l l t r g of t'f l y1n g sau l ccrtt r epor ts. Qne of these= r nlsconceptl ons
1 s t h a t the A l r F orcc 1 s e lther vr lthholdlng "f1y1ng saucer "- lnfor -
m a t l o n f r om th e pu b l l c o r c loaklng lt bcr ieath a secur lty classlfl -
catlon, T hJ.s l s url tn l e.

-3- MOTiE
A1+ T h e n a mes o f the per sons lnvolved 1n thc slghtlngs ar e.w l th-
he l d 1 n re sp e ct o f their pr lvacy. They ar e fr eer - howe Ver , to Say
w h a t th e y p i ea se .-;and Iiepor ti whlch dlvulle the capabllltles of our
al rcraftl i 'a a i r, blectr onlc equlpm er it ar e cLasslfled for
o b vl ou s re a so n s. Af f othcr lnfor niatlon wlth r "espect to s l ghfl ngs
1s a matte r d f pu b li- c r ecor d.
t'fl y l r tg
A n o th e r ml sconceptlon eenter s about photogr aphs of
sau ce r.s" . T he A l rt'flytng For ce does not possess photogr aphs w hl c h pr ov e
t h e e xl sten ce o f saucer sr t. Because stll] phot ogr aphs , c an
bc so e a s1 l y fake d , 6tt[er by uslng a m ock- up or m odel 'agal ns t a
1eg1t|nate Lackground, or by- retouchlng the negablye', they are
p ri ctl ea l l y w o rthl ess as evidence. Innum er abl.e obJect s , fr om as h-
t rays to w l sh b a sl ns, have been photogr aphed wh1]e sal l l ng thr ough
the- alr. Many such :6trotos have been publistred wlthout ieveallng
t h e true , l de n tl ty of the obJccts "

More a tte n tl or" r ls glven to m ovlng plctur es of unl dentl fl ed


fl y1 n g o b Je cts sl n ce they ar e m or e dlfflcult to falce, H ow ev er ,
oniy a very few movle-type f1lns have beetl recel,ved by the AII
Forle and they reveal on:.y plnpolnts of J-lghb mo'rlng aeross the
sky. The A1r Force has been unable to irlentlfy the solrrce of
th6 se l l gh ts, T he lm ages ar e' too sm all to analyze pr o per l y . Sl nc e
ownershlp of these f1lms remalns wlth the persons taklng them the
A 1 r F orce l s n o t 1 n a posltlon to Elvc ttr enr out. The ow ner $ m ay
d o w l th th e m a s they please.
A l tho u g h ho a Xes com pnlse b' ut a sm a]} per centage of total
reports, sofile of btrem prove to be the rnost scrrsatJ.onal and the
mo st pu b l l cl zed . However , to lnsur e that the Aln For c e w 1'11-not
e mba rass 1 n d 1 v1 d u als or r gr oups who ar e slncer e ln thelr bel l e.fs or
who may be vlctlms of such hoaxes, the facts brought out 1n the
l n ve stl ga ti on s ally no t m ade publ 1c
o f these false r epor tg ane gener'erroneous
Unfortrrnately, thls pollcy has often glven the ltnpresslon
tha t the A 1r F o rce 1s dellber ately denylng or wlthholdl ng l nfonm a-
tl o n w h l ch, l f reveaLed, would pr .ove the exlstence of " s auc c r s " .

i ft." Alr Force has stated 1n the pa't, and reafflrrns at the
phenomgna--aTe not a secret
I pr"r*it'tf.til r- th;t unexpfifned aerla]- States.
I weap.x, rnlssite, Or alrbraft, developr:cl by the United
I ii;;;";i ;h; trrn6e mltltary: d*ipartrnents nor anv other agcncv 1n t
J A;;;d*""t-ls conductlng 6xpeilrnents,- clapslfled ot' otherwlse,
| flyhg 6Ujecis *r,f6rt cbuld be a basls for tho reported phe-
"itrt-
nomena.
I
r-
a,'m., tolcen,
IJy the same tnkon - rrrr attl-,hent'1c physlcal
1'roauthentlc r evlde nce has beert
re ce l ved e sti nffsh l ng lfte exlstence of space shlps fr o m other
pl an e ts.

END

-4-
ISSUED ABOUT lv
DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE ocToBER,1964
O ffl ce of Publlc Infor m atlen
Wa shlngton 25t D. C.

U . S , A l r F cree Sum m ar yof Eqents and .Infor m atlon


C on ce rnl ng the U nldentlfled F1ylng ObJect Pr ogr am

T h e A 1 r F orce fee l s a ver y doflnlle obllgatlon to ldentlfy and


analyze th l ng s tha t ha p p e n 1n tfr e alr that m ay have 1n them menac e to
t h e U n l t ed S ta te s an c1 , b e eause of that feellng of obllgatlon and Pur .-
s u l t o f tha t l n te rest, th e Alr For ce establlshed an actlvl- ty k now n as
t h e U n l de n tl fl e d F l yl ng O bJect Pr ogr am .

T h l s p rog ram w as e stabllshed 1n 1947 when unldentlflecl fLy l nts


o b J e c t s w ere be l ng rep o rted ln.var lous par ts of the Unlted States .
T h ; r e p orts of sfeh tfh g s r eached a pealr of 1,70q In 1952 and d r opped
t o a t b t af of 4 2 9 -1n f9 1 3 . Dur lne the flr st nlne r nonlhs of 1954 onl y
2 5 4 s l g htl n g s w erd re p o rted,

F r om a su rvey of the volum e of slghtlngs r ecelved by the Al r .


Force, 1t has been determlned that qvqr'-gggg-!-ce-eLare explalnable as
b e 1 n g k no w no b Je crs.G en e r,air yiiir ,co- r ,ir ecaie-
gory ofl ba l l o o n s, a l re ratt, astr onom lcal bodles, atm ospher lc r efl ec -
t 1 o n s , ancl bl rd s. A 11 r'epor ts of unldentlfled flylng obiects r es ul t
f r o m e l t her rad a r o r vl sual slghtlngs.
E x pl an a tl on s pe rtal nl ng to slghtl.ngs r epor ted fr cm m llltar y and
c 1 . v 1 1 1 anra d a r fa c1 1 1 tl es aCe as follows:

1 . T empe ratu re l nve r slon r eflectlons can glve a r etur n on a


r a d a r s c op a th a t 1 s ag B h ar p as that r ecelved. fr oni an alr cr aft.
S p e e d , so f .th e se re tu rns repor tedly r ange fr oni' zer o to fantastlc r ates ,
T h e t ' o b J e ct$ r' a l so a p p e a r to m ove 1n a' 11 dlr ectlons. Such. slg hLi ngs
h a v e r e s ul te'd 1n man y fru l tless lnter cep! effor ts.

T o p o ssl bl y b e a r out the theor y of tem per atur e lnver s l on


refleetlon 1 s a n l n cl de n t whlch occur r ed ln Januar y l- 95I near Oak r l dge,
T e n n e s see .. T WoA 1 r F o rce alr cr aft attem pted to lnter cept an u nl dentl * I
florr rrnlrioottt
'and aCtually ttlgCktt
eStab]lshed a fadar on the object.
rh;;' ;;;1ffi6 *i.' T,oob-iu*t.--rr'eunicientrrledobJect, tf
a c c o r d "iiii"o";;
l ng to tLrel r rad a r, appear ed to be at an elevatlon of 10 to 25
d e g r e e s fro m th l s a l t1tu d e , Thr ee passes wer e m ade 1n an abNem pt to
c l o s e o n th e o b ,Je ct. fn each lnstance the p11ots r epor bed tha t thel r
r a d a r 1 ed the m fl rst u p w ar d and then down towar d a speclfld pol nt on
t h e g r o un d . (O ne scl en tl fl e theor y holcls that l1ght can be ,s 1m 1l ar l y
r e f l e c t e d fro m a l aye r o f war m a1r above the ear th. If thls p r ov es
t o b e c orre ct, ma n y vl sua l nlght slghtlngs could be accounded for . )

2 . fo n l zed e l ou d s h ave caused som e unldentlfled r adar r e tur ns .


T t r u f l d e r storms a re l de n tl fl a b1e by r adar and r adar r etur ns have al s o
b e e n r e c e l ved from 1 ce fo rmatlons 1n the &1r , balloons, gr ound r efl ec -
t 1 o n s , freq u e n cy l n te rferenee between other r adar statlons, and w l nd-
b o r n o b J e cts, O bvl or.l sl y, euch r etur ns ar e ver y dlff,1cult to ldent1fy ,
1 p e c 1 a 1 1 y w he n ttrey o e cu r dur lng dar kness.

MORE
T he Plcked
f l ock of du cks. F 1 1ght lnter cepblons pr oved these Phen om ena'

A n e xp l an a tl on of known types of vlsual slghtlngs ar e as


f o l l o w s:
1 . P rese n t-da y Jet alr cr aft, flylng at - gr eat. spee ds and hl gh
a ltl tud e s, a i .e ofte n ir lstaken for - unknowfi obJects by the untr al ned
o bse rver,. S u n l l g h t r eflectlons fr om the poIls!9d- st' r r fac es of a1r -
c r a ft ca n be s" " i p laln1y even when the alr cr aft ltself l s too d1s -
t an t to be vi sl b l e. The exhaust of Jet alr er aft 9p1ts a tr a1l and
o ften th l s 1 s se e n rather than the alr cr aft ltse1f.

Z. Wea th e r ba lloons account for a substantla] num ber of s l ght-


1 ng s. T he se b a l l o o nsp Sent to altltudes of 4OTOOO feet and i i l gher '
a r e l a u n ch e d fro m vlr tuaLly ever y a1r f1eld ln the countr y '- T hey ar e
m acl eo f rub b e r or p otyethyiene, ivr el] as they galn aLtltude, hav e
; ; ;y go o d refl ectl ve qualitfes, car r y sm al1 l1ghts when I'aunc hed
a fte r:da rk, a n cl can be seen at ver y hlgh altltudes.

3 . In a d d l tl o n bo the or dLnar y weather ba11oon, huge 9o- foot


b al l o o n s, w hl ch S om etlm es dr lft fr om coast to coas' t, are us ed for
u ppe r a1 r re se a reh . These bal]oons also have a hlghly r efl ec t'1v e
s irrface a n d are 'r1s1bld at extr enr e altltudes.
l +. F re q u e n tl y, unr isua]Iy br lght m eteor s and planets w l 11 c aus e'
a f'l rrrr-w o f n e p o rti , som etlm es fr oni r elatlvely
q
.,
exper lenc ed obs er v er s .
A,t ce rtal n tl mbs o f the year , Ventts, for lnstance, 13 low - on l hu
"'

h o rl zo n a n d w 1 ]1 ap p.ar Lo change color and m ove er r atlc al l y due to


h a zy a tmosp h e rl c cb ndltlons. Slnce the gtar s ar e chant ed and m os t
o f tfretr ch a racte rl stlcs known, m any cases ar e tr aced to them '
M ete o rs on th e o th e r h6nd ar e 6g r aife slngle- dlr ectlon m ov em ent and
a re. o n l y vl sl b l e fo r a few seeonds. M eteor actlvlty ls r nor e c om m on
a t certal n tl me s of the year ,than other s, ancl r epor ts of U F Ots hav e
s h o w n a te n d e n e y to lncr ease dur lng these per lods.

5 , S o me ca se s ar lse whlch, on the basls of fnfor m atl on r ec el v ec


a re of a w el rd a n d pecr - illar natur e. The objects dlsqlay er r atl c ..
m ove men tSa n d p h e n om enal Speeds. Slnee m aneuver s and s peeds of thl s
k l n d e a n n o t be traced dlr ectly' to alr cr aft, balloons, or k now n as tr o'
n oml ca l so u rces, l t ls Oelleveci' that they ar e r eflectlons fr om ob-
J e cts rath e r th a n belng obJects bhem selves' For exam pl e: s uppos e
we w o r.tl d h o l d a ml r r or - ln tiand under a llght, causlng a r efl ec tl on
o n th e ce 1 L 1 n g . Only a sIlght, qulck m ovem ent of the hand w ouJ d
r esul t tn e rrl tl c m ovem ents- andfhenom enal speeds of tLr e r efl ec ted
bea m, R efl ectl on s m ay be pr oJected to clouds and haze both fr om the
gro u n d a n d a l r. Many thln- gs whlch ar e com m on to the hav e h1ghl y
.skc yl ouds . Ac c u-
i efl ectj ,ve q u a i ttt,:s l such as. balloons, alxer aft, and
r ate spe e d s a re a l so dlfflcult to deter m lne due to the 1nabl 1l ty
of th e re p o rter to Judge dletance, angles, and tlm e
6 , B i ,1l l " 1a n t flashlng llgnts that som etlnr es appear r ed and
whl te i n co l or ha ve b' een r epor - ed by obser ver s. Thls t y pe hu.g been
t r ace d to a n e w 1 l ghtlng sy- stem of bom m er clal alr 11nes and m 111Ear y
al rcraft. A to p th; talf sectlon of these alr cr aft hlghl y r efl ec tl v e
r ed a n d w hl te fl a sh er type llghts have been lnstalled and ar e m any
t lme s ml sl nte rprete d by the gr ound obser ver .
MORE
e s t a b l l s he d from e xp e rl e n ce and tr ends to r neasur e and attem pt to n
d e t e r m l n e th e so u rce of UFOts. Som e of .these ar e gener al 1n natur e
l 7
a n d a r e b u b Je ct to ch a n g e as new sclentlflc and factual lnfon m atl on
1 s r e c e lved . It sho u fd be r em em ber ed that any obJect' vlewed fr om a
g r e a t dl stan ce ap p e a rs to be r ound. Near ly *a11 the slghtlngs r epor ted
a r e d e scrl b e d as ro u n d a nd would tend to lndlcate that m ost of the
o b J e c t s a re a t a g re& te r'dlstance fr om the obser ver than 1s gener al l y
e s t l m a t ed .

Ano th e n ml sco n ce p tl on center s about photogr aphs of unlde ntl fl ed


f I y l n g ob Je cts. A t b e st the m aJor lty of photogr aphs have pr ov en
n o n - c o ncl usl ve as e vl de n ce.to thls pr ogr am r nalnly due to type c am er as
u s e d . A l so, tt rnl gh t b e m entloned that because st1Il photographs c an
b e s o ea stl y fa ke d , €1 th e n by uslng a r nock- up or m odel agalns t a
l e g l t l m a te b a ckg rou n d , o r by r etouchlng the negatlve, they are w or th-
J e s s a s evl de n ce . In n u mdr able obJects, fr om ashtr ays to was h bas l ns ,
have been photographed wh!.1e sa1l1ng through the a1r. Many such
p h o t o s ha ve be e n p u b l trg h e$' wlthout r eveallng the tr ue ldentlty of the
o b J e c . t s.

M ore a tte n tl on 1 s g l v en to m o' r lng plctur es of unldentlfled fl y -


l n g o b J e cts stn ce th e y a re m or e d1ff1cult to r etouch. Howev er , onl y
a v e r y fe w mo vl e-type f1 l ms have been r ecelved by the A1r Forc e and
t h e y r e vea l o n l y p l np o l nts of l1ghb m ovlng acr oss the sky. The Al r
F o r c e h as be e n u n a b l e to ldentlfy the sour ce of these llghts bec aus e
the lmages are too smal-l to analyze properly, strnce ownershlp of
t h e s e f 1 l ms remal ns w l th the per sons taklng them , thr e A1r For c e 1s
n o w 1 n a p o sl tl o n to g l ve them out.

T h e dl ffl cu l ty o f e valuatlng r epor ts of all types ls bas ed


l a r g e l - y up o n th e l ack o f baslc data sur uoundlng the slghtlngs. T he
d r o p 1 n sl gh tl ng s d u r'1 n g 1953 1s lar gely due to the lncr eased. ac c ur ac Sr
a n d t h e compl ete n e ss of repor ts belng r ecelvedn To be of va1ue, a
r e p o r t sh o u l d l ncl ud e su ch baslc data as s1ze, shape, com pos l tl on,
s p e e d , a1 t1 tu d e , d l re ctl on , and the m aneuver patter n of the obJ ec ts .
W l t h o u t su ch l nfo rma tl on , tt 1s alm ost lm posslble to establlsh the
ldentlty of th e o b Je ct sl ghted. In add1t1on, a r ecent study has s how n
a d l r e c t co rre l atl on b e tw een the num ber of slghtlngs r epor teO anO the
publlclty g l ven to n sa u cer sn by the natlonr s pr ess.

T h e A 1r F orce to o k a fur ther step 1n ear ly lg53 by pr ocur l ng


v l d e o n c ameras fo r th e p u r pose of photogr aphlng thls phenom ena. fhes e
c a m e r a s w ere d l strl bu te d to var lous nr 111tar y 1nstallat1ons. T hl s ty pe
: a m e r a ha s tw o l -e n se s, o n e of whlch takes an or dlnar y photogr aph, and
b h e o t h er h a s a d l ffra ctl on gr atlng whleh separ ates ir lr r t r nto- r i s
c o m p o n e n t p a r" ts, T hl s a l ds 1n deter m lnlng the com posltlon of the ob-
J e c t p h oto g rap h e d . A small num ber of photogr aphs ir ave been r ec el v ed
f r o m t h l s ca mera; h o w eve r, only llght spots of no deta1l have been
l n d l c a t e d 1 n th e p h o to s to date. As m oie photogr aphs ar e taken by
t h e s e o bservers, 1 t 1 s b e ]1eved that a gr ebt oeir br the m yste r y i r r r r
be llfted from the program.
-i
f rhe A l r F o rce w ou l d 11ke to state that no evldence has be en
I 'e ce l ve d w h l ch w ou l d ten d to lndlcate that the unlted states 1s oel ng i
i .o se rve d b y rn a ch l ne s fro m outen gpace or a for elgn gover nm ent, N o - i
or p a rtl cl e of an unlcnownsubstance has been- r ecelved and :
l__oulect
-3- MORE
,A
1E
n o p h o t o g r ap h s of de ta l l ha ve been pr oduccd. Thc photogr aphs on
f ran b a r e l a t be st, o n l y l arge and sm all blobs of l1ght wh1chl ln
m o s t c a s e s , a re e xP 1 a 1 n a b 1 e .

I t n a y b e co n cl ud e d fro m the above and fr om past exper lence that


n o n e w s t g nl fl ca n t tre n d s ha ve devcloped out of thesc cases. ,' Ih er e
w a s a n l n c r ea i e i n u b 1 l c l n ter est whlch occur r ed slm ultaneously w l th
p
t he p u b l l c a tl on of varl o u s b ooks and ar tlcles on the subJecti how ev er '
t hl s t r e n d ha s be e n n o te d sever al tlm es pneviously.

I n o r de r to o ve rcome the lack of baslc data, and to standar dl z e


a l l r e p o r t s , a de ta l l e d qu e stlonnalr e 1s now sr - r bm ltted to each,per s on
rep o r t i n g ' a n un l de n tl fl e d ae .r la] obJect. It 1s felt that the lnfor -
m a t l o n t h u s o b ta l ne d w 1 1 1 l cwer stfll r nor e the num ber of unexplai nc d
sl g h t l n g s .

F o r o bservers w h o w l sh to r epor t unloentlfled aer 1a1 obJect$e


t he Al r F o r ce w o u l d vre l come,the lnfor m atlon. Attached to thr ls repor t
1 s a b r l e f b a sl c su mma ry fo rm. It would be appr eclated 1f obser v er s
w o u l d s e n d th e co mpl ete d fo rm to tlr e near est Ali' For ce Base.

I f a n d w he n ne w d e ve l op m ents tur n up 1n thls pr ogr an, the A 1r


F o r c e w 1 1 1 ke e p th e pu b l l c l nfor m ed.

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Part B: 1'lrc CIA PANELBcport of 19(3

lbe rnaterlaL ln thc Project Blue Book gpcclaJ. Rcport No. 1l+ (s€e Part D)
B1
nar flrst preparoal t\ 1952 at the rcqucrt of the CIA by A1r Forc. contlactors
ancl the ProJcct Blue Book staff, for pros.ltatloa to a panel of sclontlsts early
ln 1953. (Sco E.J.Ruppeltrs book [The Report on Unldentlfled F1ylng obJcctsrr,
Doubleday, fl.rst edltloar .sp. pp. 293-2}.t for the background of thls Panef.)
In Junc, 1p66, one of thc Pancl nenbers, appearlJlg on e CBg TV Speclal Report,
pubJ.lcly naneil the CfA at ths rsgercyr (unaened by Ruppclt) vhlch had palrl for
the Pancl,! s actlvltles.
gthough th€ BlEc Book Report No. 1l+ yas nad6 pubHa lu Octobvr 1955 .sec
page D5), tbe Palel-rs r.port (page 82) ua! kept secret unt11 glven to MaJ. D.E.
Keyhoe 1! early J.tl8, for usc ln a racllo lntervlcy, I ther vrote to the CIA to
get the nat-_rlal., anal (BGC l€tter on p. 82) thc Pane1 rcport ras glrren to ne on
ilprll 91 1918, f6t dlstrlbutlon. I then vrotc to oaoh Pa"n61 nenb6r, antt to otherr.
to try to clarlfl th6 purpose aril neanlng of tbclr r.port. Selectlons fron the
rsplles vhlch I rocclved ar€ r€produced otr pag€r 83 to 35.

Note tbat the na{n purposc of tbl's Panel study, lnsofar es the CIA vas con-
oc!!etl, spparegtl.y vrs to prepsro for e tcst program to se6 rrhy peopls reacteal
strolgly to trflylEg laucerr slghtjrgs. (Scveral polnts ln the letters touchlng
oB tbls ar€ ln(llceted by narglnal notes rrSee Pagc Bl.n) hon thls, the CIA nlght
bave rrisbetl to derlvc aon€ ulofuL psychologlcal. rrarfarc tecbnlques.

.Ibe slCllqg r-eport_quotett by MaJ. Keyhoc 1n h1s book nFlylng Saucers--Top


-
9ectetrr pp. 18-201 ba6 all the samarks of a crA rfieLal evaluatloin of such a'
psycbologlcal warfare glmlcl. S-eEnI conoegts on tbl.s 1n ny artlcle (on p. 5O)
" llt o p e n L e tte r to sa u cer-R cs-carchersn, 1n the nagazl nGrrFryl ng sauceri r,. i ,Iarch.
1p62 (lssue Fs-2lr) publ-lshed by nay-iainer, tnh;;;i; wis";;;i"; 5b\o6.-

#*
1hc lctter reproctgced belou sho$s that the nornal cha:nel for sci€ntlfie
study of govertrlttelt rroblens, the Natlonal Academyof Sclences. (vtrich would not
gi1 ngutat;nce" ;-.srraplng rts iui"ri;i;-hJ'n;;
lrave.accepted..such besr lnvlted
to stualy the rrsaucern slgbtlngs, at thc iand tine tilt-tft bJl'ffi"n"r of scien_
tlsts $as set-up. Thus one
1iy'be Justlfleal fn aouliini-irr"t'^tir"'u-s.co""r"r"nt
:h99lg1y uantetl an inpartlal sclenilflc lnvestigatlon 5r tne liivrne
in 1953. Tbls ls rurther shown by th6 Governnenl,s fallure to aa6pt ors"u""rjn
I1sh the recomendatlons glven by tbe pa.nel ln pat.e"upl 3-oi-tir"i'r'r6po"icil"s2), to oub-

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ittoApia dEraFodi aoepPo.o p+oodd<oa< a '
A lcttcr fron r not
Panclr sho vrotc to PaneL nenbors ho
kaorr'acking about thc Rcport, tn 1958'

May 20, 1958

M r . Leon D avi dson


6 4 Prospect Street
Wh ite P l ai ns, N .Y .

De ar Mr. D avi dson:

I recei ved one verbal and one w ri tten anaw er to


m y query. Tbe w ri tten anaw er w ae qui te defi ni te' The rel eage
h a d been w ri tten i n i l governmenteseI P urpoael y, but i t w as not
e xp ected that there w oul d be any rel ease' There w as to be no
further statement from the group. A gecond man told rne rnore
definitely that he was agtonished at the wording of the docurnent
that he had, presurnably signed. He agreed with rne about its
indefiniteness and thought that it would do harm' But then he
people
pointed out that no matter what you said the flying saucer
wo ul d get you sornehow or other.

If I ha.r of anything more o{ interest I wiil keep


yo u i n-formed, I fi nd R uppel t's l etter i nteresti ng and certai nl y
it throws iight on some of the activities of that agency' In rny
opinion it further verifies Ruppeldincornpetence for the job tlat
h e w as gi ven. I mean thi s not as a cri ti ci arn, becauge one can-
not alwaye control the assignrnent and doubtless he did the beet
h e coul d. B ut I've never seen a proj ect w orse handl ed than the
e a r l y stages of the fl yi ng saucer P rogram' I had one of thoee
recal l one i nci dent'
"b r i;fi ng sessi ord' and parti cul arl y

In my emphasie that these were natural phenomena'


a i l suppose that w e
f sa v mi rages for exarnpl e, one of the men sai d
F - ( s.a tt.d fl r a moment, that you are correct' D oesn rt
)€e to you that w e rni ght be abl e to use thi s i nJormati on in
\ i, o..t"
\'s. Pa
t ce .1
-l r e verse?"
\h-t I - rrY ou mean as a counter rneasuref " I agked'

{J.t Qt |
s I ,'
\ | " Ex ac tl y l

q&b \
\ "You mean you would like to uge thig phenornenon'
q,
qft 6ay , to pr oduc e an i m age of C hr i s t ov er the k r er nl i n?r '

kr " he s ai d'
s*
\
" Yee that'e

I'Abs ol ute
an ex c el l ent ex am pl e,

I then w ent on to
nons ens e I " I r epl i ed'
emphatically that I waa not goirig to be muzzled by any con-
state
of s ec ur i ty or s ec r ec y i n thi s dev el oPr nent' As I r ec a l l '
sider ati ons
Gener al Sanl or d w as pr es ent at thes e r neeti ngs '

Ae a r es ul t, they agr eed to oPen up the Bl ue Book fil e s


to m e. In fac t R uppel t w ae r eques ted to br i ng ther n to r ne
Well, not only did Ruppelt never
so that I could study thern.
irnmediately mowed in to classify the files and
corne, but he further
as Key hoe and other s hav e i ndi c ated' to get
I w as not Per r ni tted,
this i nfor m ati on. On one oc c as i on' how ev er , I w as tol d to c or ne
them open'
ove r and s ee al l of the fi l es and they w oul d thr ow

I w ent ov er to the Pentagon w her e the s c i enti at in


irnrnediately pulled out great drawers of these
charge of this bureau
ex ac tl y w hat i s
thing- s and s ai d " now her e y ou c an See for y our s el f
in ther n. H e s ai d k now y ou hav e s ec ur i ty c l ear anc e.''
" "I

I as k edhi m i f the fi l es w er e c l as s i fi ed and that i f

anything that I happen to see in those files and wanted to quote it

woul d be s i r ni l ar l y c l as s i fi ed. H e s ai d y es that I w as not per m i tte d


t' and thus avoided what rnight con-
to quote. I said I'no thank youl
cei v abl y hav e been a tr aP to m uz z l e m e.

S i ncerel y yours,
CI
Parb Cr The Current (f966) Air Force Reloase on Project Blue Book

Pagcs C-l thro-rgh C-8 coryrisc the coqplete tert of the doeument
lssued b5r the Alr Force in Febmary 1966 as its cument frpress
releasefr for ttre public. Tho only doletions (made necessary by
l-inLtations of space) are a frsrrggested.Reading Listrr of books on
astronory, atrnospheric phenomenarete., whieh oonstituted page 6,
and a Elreball Report Form which fonned page J.0. If desiredt
these mlsslng pages rnay be obtained fron the publLsher (see back
cover for add.ress) at a nomina} charge to cover reprod.uction and
handLing expenses.

The cover letter fron the Air Force whieh aeconpanied this docu-
rnent is reproduced on page C-4, occupying t^rhat was a large blank
space in thc or{.glnal- document. Pages 4 and 5 of the originai-
doeurent, whieh were eaeh half-blanh, have been combined on
page C-J. Pages 6 and 10 have been ornitted, as stated above.

PR OJ E C T

BLUE
BOOK

I FEBR U A R Y 1966
C?

PROJECT BLUE BOOK

The United States Air Force has the responsibility under the Department of Defense for the
investigation of unidentified flying objects (UFOs). The name of this program, which has been in
operation since 1948, is Project Blue Book. It has been identified in the past as Project Sign and
Project Grudge.

Air Force interest in unidentified flying objects is related directly to the Air Force responsi-
bility for the air defense of the United States. Procedures for conducting this program are estab-
lished by Air Force Regulation 200-2.

The objectives of Project Blue Book are two-fold: first, to determine whether UFOs pose a
threat to the security of the United States; and, second, to determine whether UFOs exhibit any
unique scientific information or advancedtechnology which could contribute to scientific or technical
research. In the course of accomplishing these objectives, Project Blue Book strives to identify
and explain all UFO sightings reported to the Air Force.

HOW THE PROGRAMIS CONDUCTED

The program is conducted in three phases. The first phase includes receipt of UFO reports
and initial investigation of the reports. The Air Force base nearest the location of a reported sight-
ing is charged with the responsibility of investigating the sighting and forwarding the information to
the Project Blue Book Office at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio.

If the initial investigation does not reveal a positive identification or explanation, a second
phase of more intensive analysis is conductedby the Project Blue Book Office. Each case is objec-
tively and scientifically analyzed, and, if necessary, all of the scientific facilities available to the
Air Force can be used to assist in arriving at an identification or explanation. All personnel asso-
ciated with the investigation, analysis, and evaluation efforts of the project view each report with
a scientific approach and an open mind.

The third phase of the program is dissemination of information concerning UFO sightings,
evaluations, and statistics. This is accomplished by the Secretary of the Air Force, Office of In-
formation.

The Air Force defines an unidentified flying object as any aerial object which the observer is
unable to identify.

Reports of unfamiliar objects in the sky are submitted to the Air Force from many sources.
These sources include military and civilian pilots, weather observers, amateur astronomers,
business and professional men and women, and housewives, etc.

Frequently such objects as missiles, balloclns, birds, kites, searchlights, aircraft navigation
and anticollision beacons, jet engine exhaust, condensationtrails, astronomical bodies and meteor-
ological phenomenaare mistakenly reported as unidentified flying objects.

The Air Force groups its evaluationsof UF'Oreports under three general headings: (1) identified,
(2) insufficient data, and (3) unidentified.
C3
Identified reports are those for which sufficient specific information has been accumulatedand
evaluatedto permit a positive identification or explanationof the object.

Reports categorized as Insufficient Data are those for which one or more elements of informa-
tion essential for evaluation-?Te-mGFilflSome examples are the omission of the duration of the
sighting, date, time, location, position in the sky, weather conditions, and the manner of appearance
or disappearance.If an element is missing and there is an indication that the sighting may be of a
security' scientific, technical, or public interest value, the Project Blue Book Office conductsan
adcl-itionafinvestigation and every attempt is made to obtain the information necessary for identifi-
cation. However, in some instances, essential inforrnation cannot be obtained. and no further action
can be taken.

The third and by far the smallest group of evaluationsis categorized as Unidentified. A sight-
ing is considered unidentified when a report apparently contains att pertirGnt d[Tlffiessary to
suggest a valid hypothesis concerning the cause or explanationof the report but the description of
the object or its motion cannotbe correlated with any known object or phenomena.

IYPES OF UFO IDENTIFICATIONS AND EVALUATIONS

T her e a re v a ri o u s ty p e s o fU F 0 s i g h ti ngs.Mostcommonarereportsof" @
whic hinc lu d e b ri g h tS ta rS,p l a n e ts ,c o m ets,fi rebal Is,meteors,auroral strea@ -
tial bodies. when observed through haze, light fog, moving clouds, or other obscurations
or unusual
conditions, the planets, including venus, Jupiter, and Mars have been reported
as unidentified flying
objects. Stellar mirages are also a source of reports.

Satellites are another major source of UFO reports. An increase in satellites reported as
UFOs
tras co66aUout because of two factors. The first is the increase of interest on the part
of the public;
the second is the increasing numberof satellitesin the skies. Positive knowledge
of the location of all
satellites at all times enables rapid identification of satellite sightings. reeping track
of man-made
objects in orbit about the earth is the responsibility of the North American Air Defense
Command
Space Detection and Tracking System. This sophisticated electronic system gathers complex
space
traJfic data instantly from tracking stations all over the world.

Other space surveillance activities include theuseof ballistic tracking and large telescopic
cam-
eras. ECHO schedules are prepared by theNASAGoddardSpace Flight Center at Greenbelt,
Maryland,
and schedules of the South/North equator crossings are prepared by the Smithsonian Institution
at
Cambridge, Massachusetts. From the data produced bytheseagencies, satellites mistakenly
reported
as UFOs can be quickly identified. Some of these are visible to the naked eye.

AircraJt account for another major source of UFo reports, particularly during
adverse weather
conaili6iSShen observed at hiqhaltitudesandatsome distance, aircraft can have
appearances rang-
ing from disc to rocket shapes duetothe reflection of the sun on their
bright surfaces. vapor or con-
densation trails from jet aircraft will sometimes appear to glow fiery
red or orange when reflecting
sunlight. Afterburners from jet aircraftareoftenreforteaas uFos since they can be seen from great
distances when the aircraft cannot be seen.

The Project Blue Book office has direct contact with all
.elements of the Air Force and the Fed-
eral Aviation Agency civil air control centers. All aerial refueling
operations and special training
flights can be checked immediately. Air traJficof commercial airlinel and
flights of military aireraft
are checked witlt the nearest control center, enabling an immediate
evaluation of aircraft nii"trt*iv
reported as uF]Js. However, since manylocalflights are not carried,
these flights are probable causes
of some reports.
Balloons continue to be reported as UFOs. Severalthousandballoons are released each day from
mititffid civilian airports, weather stations, and research activities. There are several types of
balloons - weather balloons, rawinsondes, radiosondes, and the large research balloons which have
diameters up to 300 feet. At night, balloons carry running lights which cause an unusual appearance
when observed. Reflection of the sun onballoons at dawn and sunset sometimes produce strange ef-
fects. This usually occurs when theballoon,becauseof its altitudes, is exposedto the sun. Large bal-
loons can move at speeds of over 100 miles per hour when moving in high altitude jet windstreams.
These balloons sometimes appear to be flattened on top. At other times, they appear to be saucer-
shaped and to have lights mounted inside the bag itseU due to the sun's rays reflecting through the
material of the balloon. The Balloon Control Centerat Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico, main-
tains a plot on all Military Upper Air Research Balloons.

Another category of UFO evaluatlons labeled Other includes missiles, reflections, mirages,
searchlights, birds, kites, spurlous radar indications, hoaxes, fireworks, and flares.

Aircraft, satellites, balloons, and the like should NOT be reported since they do not fall within
the definition of an unidentified flying obJect.

DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE


W ASH IN GT ON

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY

JUt{- 3 1966

Dcar lr[r. Ibvldro:

ELue Book Spclal Rcpor{ #flr vaa a onc t1n rportr and, rc
havc no pJrna to rcplacc or narrirc ltr

I ar lnclootng tb. sturcnt rcDorg on P:loJcct BIur Eook for


Jrour l.nfol:latloDo lotr nlLL nota fr6 tbla ncport tbrt tb. conclutlonr
anc ce.cntlaf\y tb. ran af tboe€ Eadc 1D Spoolal mport, #Ill.

Slnccrrly,

,/?')
..r ./
/
'//,
I Ateb
.t/r&,:K7
'ro,li:t'.
ProJect BIue Eook !t Cotonel, USAy'
Chlef, Q/vil Blanch
^ tr - ^ -/

l,lro Leon Davldaon Corrnunl4yRelattons Dlvlston


4+ nrospcct Str Offlce of Informatlon
/
t{bltc Pla:Lna, l{cr lork
CONCLUSIONS

To date, the firm conclusions of ProjectBlueBook are: (1) no unidentified flying object reported,
investigated, and evaluated by the Air Force has ever given any indication of threat to our national
securityl (2) there has been no evidence submitted to or discovered by the Air Force that sightings
categorized as unidentified represent technological developments or principles beyond the range of
present day scientific knowledge; and (3) therehasbeen no evidence indicating that sightings categor-
ized as unidentified are extraterrestrial vehicles.

The Air Force willcontinuetoinvestigateallreports of unusual aerial phenomenaover the United


States. The services of qualified scientists and technicians will continue to be used to investigate and
analyze these reports, and periodic reports on the subject will be made.

The Air Force does not deny the possibility that some form of life may exist on other planets in
the universe. However, to date, the Air Forcehas neither received nor discovered any evidence which
proves theexistence and intra-space mobility of extraterrestriallife. The Air Force continues to ex-
tend an open invitation to anyonewhofeelsthat he possesses any evidence of extraterrestrial vehicles
operating within the earth's near space envelopeto submit his evidence for analysis. Initial contact
for this purpose is through the following address:

PROJECT BLUE BOOK INFORMATIONOFFICE


SATOI
WASHINGTON,D C 20330

Anyone observing what he considers to be an unidentified flying object should report it to the
nearest Air Force Base. Persons submitting a UFO report to the Air Force are free to discuss any
aspect of the report with anyone. The Air Force does not seek to limit discussion on such reports and
does not withhold or censor any information pertaining to this unclassified program.

The Jollowing items are for internal use only and are not available for
dlstribution to the public. These concern internal managemenTTndprocedures
for forwarding UFO reports to the appropriate agency:

1. Air Force Regulation200-2

2. JANAP 146

The Air Force has no films, photographs, maps, charts, or graphs of un-
identified flying objects. Photographs that have been submitted for evaluation
in conjunction with UFO reports have been determined to be a misinterpreta-
tion of natural or conventional objects. These objects have a posltive identifi-
cation.

The Air Force no longer possesses, and thus does not have for distribu-
tion, outdated reports on Project Sign, Project Grudge, Blue Book Special
Report No. 14, and outdated Project Blue Book press releases. Non-military
UFO publications should be requested fromthepublisher, not the Air Force.

415
TOTAL UFO (OBJECT)SIGHTINGS

(C ompi l ed 1T Jan 66 )

TOTAL
YEAR SIGHTINGS I.JNIDENTIFIED SOIIRCE

1947 122 t2 C ase Fi l es


1948 156 I C ase Fi Ies
I 949 186 22 BIue Book, page 108
1950 2L0 27 C ase Fi l es
1951 169 22 C ase Fi l es
1952 1,501 303 Blue Book, page 108
1953 509 42 C ase Fi l es
1954 487 46 Case Files
1955 545 24 C ase Fi l es
1956 6?0 l4 C ase Fi l es
195? 1,006 t4 C ase Fi l es
1958 627 10 Case Files
1959 390 t2 Case Files
1960 DD '{ t4 C ase Fi l es
I 961 591 l3 Case Files
1962 474 15 Case Files
1963 399 t4 Case FiIes
1964 562 19 Case Files
1965 886 16 C ase Fi l es
frw 646
C1

STATISTICAL DATA FOR YEARS I953-1964

T O T A L C ASESBY CAT E@ RY (C ompi l e d I N ov 65)

1953 1954 1955 1956 195? 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 TOTA L

Astronomical 175 13? 135 222 341 23t 144 235 203 136 85 r23 2167
Aircra-tt 73 80 124 148 2'.8 106 63 66 17 68 73 7t 116?
Balloon ?8 63 toz 93 114 58 31 22 3? 19 28 20 665
Insufficient Data ?9 103 95 132 191 111 65 105 115 S4 59 99 1248
Other 62 58 65 61 tzo 93 ?5 94 11 65 58 88 916
Satellite 0 0 0 0 8 1 8 02L691':-82t424t7
Unidentilied 42 46 24 t4 14 10 t2 14 13 15 14 19 237
T O T AL '4f7
50e 525 6?0- 1006 m 3eb EE? 5et Tti 3ee 562- 6dil
ASTRONOMICAL SIGHTINGS

Meteors 70 92 ?9 88 1?9 168 100 18? 119 95 57 61 12s 5


Stars and Plarets 101 44 52 131 t44 56 40 45 ?8 36 23 55 805
Other 4 1 4 3 18 7 4 3 6 5 5 7 67
TOTAL m m tu5- m -mT TSi TTA TTs m i36 -T5 m nm
O T H E R C ASES

Hoaxes, Hallucinations,
Unreliable neports and
Psychologica-l Causes 15 6 18 16 37 29 t4 13 t7 11 16 34 226
Mi ssi l es and nockets 2 7 1 3 2 6 1 472139137 83
R eflections 4 6 4 3 2 7 11 I 3 3 0 2 54
F l ares an d Fir ewor ks t4 8 6 8 3 5 7 433,1 59
l"{ i rases md lnversions 3 2 4 1 5 2 4 56302
sea rch a n d Gr oundlights 9 6 1 4 9 r 2 8561326 81
Clouds and Contrails 6 3 2 t9 5 3 4 5450 47
C ha-ff 0 2 0 1 2 6 1 43521 27
B rrds 4 1 2 6 1 1 0 32224 34
Radar Analysis 15 7 1 I 27 3 8 6 I 0 I 2 87
Photo Ana-lysis 1 1 2 4 7 7 4 63236 40
Physical Specimens 1 6 5 3 5 10 3 ? 4 15 3 8 70
S a te l l i te Decay 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 93343 ZJ
Oth e r 1 7 4 0 9 5 3 34246
T O T AL -A
sB- ib- -TT _lZb
ig- ?5
-eA -,n
ib-
-86 -86 =_48
vto
EE

STATISITICSFOR I9O5

(Compiled l8 Jan 1966)

APR MAY JI'N JUL AUG SEP ocT NOV DEC TOTAL
JAN FEB MAR

4 21027823027 22 t2 245
ASTRONOMICAL 108 1l
l4 1l 14732612013 l4 5 2lO
AIRCNAFT 11 8
32 I a 03?627 0 236
BALLOON
I N S U F F I CIENT DAT A 54 , 4 421624155
2 185
I 56942 19 ll 3 126
OTHER 11 8
1554241243 0 3 t52
S A T E L L I TE 45 o c
10 2 I 102440 1 016
UNIDENTIFIED
I 0 000226 4 217
PENDING 00
45 35 T3 5- aI $ I3b m, lb4 10 DC ,6 Bn
TOTAL

ASTRONOMICAL CASES

MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL
JAN FEB

4142613 695 101


Meteors66822
2 0 5105516 20131 135
S t a r s a n d Pla n e ts 3 I 3
0 0 lc 3d le la l f00 9
Other la lb 0
rorAl I0 I ll 1 2 lonE2m nno tIr
Parhelia, Moon (e) Reflected Moonlight (f) comet lkeya-Seki
(a) Solar Image (b) Moon (c) Sun (d) Reflected Moonlight,

OT H E R C ATEGORY

JAN FEB MAR APB MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL

Hoaxes, Hallucinations,
Unreliable Reports and
3 4 1 2 | 2 t2 3 0 34
Psychologicalcauses 5
I a 1 10
Miisiles affl Rockets
I I 2 I I
Retlections
I I I 4
Flares and Fireworks a
t
Mlrages and Inversions
0 I 0 0 1 2 0 9
S e a rcha n dGr oundLights 2 |
Clouds and Contrails 1 I I
I
Chaff
B i rd s | 2 2 3 lll ll

lc
lr 1w
P h vsi cal Specim ens
le lg 3gmn lm 6
Radar Analysis
zdl ld li 2kj 5x 1j t2
Photo Analysis
I I 0 1 0 2 0101 8
S a te l l i teD ecay O I
lh 4sbbb th 3tuv 13
Miscellaneous 2^b ?bt
T OT ALlIE' 856 I 42 teu5 1ze
(a) Tracer Bullets (b) Misinterpretatlon of ConventionalObjects (c) Metal Ball (d) Developer Smear (e) Anomalous Propagatron
(J) No Image on.Fllm (k) Poor Photo Process (l) Free Falling Object
it) fit"" (g) Electronic Counter Meaaures (h) Debris in Wind
(m) False Targets (n) weather Returns (p) dmulsion Flaws (r) Ptastic Bags (s) Man on Ground (t) Lightnine (u) chemical Trails
from Research Rocket (v) Missile Launch Activity (rv) Gourd

I
part D: Analysis of Project Blue Book speclal Report No. 1/r

lbis scction includes the fulI text of the First Editionr which con-
taincd certain press releases lszued in L955 at the tlne that
Special Report No. 1/" was alrnounced to the public. The material
w-hich appeared on the inslde covers and outsld.e back cover of the
Second inttion has been omitted., as being outdated and non-eubstantive.

flre Atr'R pff,-z docutrent (pages X-I to X-/r) which ie bound ln at the
centcr fold of thls edition was not lncluded in the first tt'ro cdl-
tJ.ons, and should be ignored in arqr roferences to page nur:oberl.
rt arfd not form part of tho contents of the orig:inal spoelal Report
No. 1/*.-l[4d.itlonal single copi.es of the Afn 200-2 document may be
roquested, free of charge, by wrd.ting to the publlsher at the ad-
d.ress sholln on the back cover of thls book, enclosing a long self-
add^ressedenvolope bearing flrst-class postage. Give your ZIP-Code'

OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE


WA S H IN GTON 25, D . C .

Dcoernbcr7, 3956
I-EG ISLAT IVEAND PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Dear Dt. Davldeoa:

Refercnac your lettcr of llovubet 7l t I prcnme


that yur heve rccelvod a loaa oopy of tbe Bl.uc Book
fron the Nclt lork Offloe of Infornatloa Sctrlccs.
lhat offloc $ar verbally lngt,ntctcal to Dall a aogf
to you.

Rcgarflng ropnductlon of the ELue Book, tbc


Dcpartmnt of D'Efensc consldors thls to be your onr
prtvate effalr ard nelt'ber dmlcg or approeca your
plan.

I tnrst thls satlsfaotorlly aartnrs yotrr qlrortlons.

Stncerely
T-",
[*.
-.-,--, **xJa "0..t-*.*r.-.-
Pblllp K. AlLcn
Dopfiy, hrbllc Affalru

!b. Iao Davldson


64 hospect Strcct
lfblto Elrrnsr l{cv lork
hrblisherts Statement
!
Ii
I The letter on paPe D-3 frorn Gen. Kinney indicates that'the U.S.Air
'j

Force has not d.lstrlbuted the full- 316-page ProJect Blue Book Special Re-
i port No. I/+ because the cost would. have been prohibltlve. A letter from
i A.F.Su"""tary Donald A. Quarles, dated July 51 L956, statest
rrlt has been
estimated. that the cost of nrintlng enough copies for distribution to the
public thr.ough such outlets; as libraries and academlc institutlons would
tl
be between $tO and $l-5 per copY.

This privately fLnanced. editlon of the Blue Book report is being ls-
sued. as a public ser,ric.. Through the careful eliminatlon of the bulk of
tho tables in the orlginal report, the slzo has been reduced to about 8O
pages, without loss oi a single wonl of the main text. The full Tables of
borrt"rrtr of the origlnal report have been retained, so that the reader may
know exactly what has been onr:itted. The only pulpose ln the omissicns
has been to bring the cost d.olrn to a reasonable level, So that widespread
distribution could be establi-shed.

It ls guaranteed that there has been no change, alteration, or edit-


ing of' ttre material on any page of the Report }io. 14 which is reproduced
heieln. Each page has bebn- reprod.uced photographlcally exactly as it is
ln the origlnal Air Force ed.ition. Every single page of the rnain text
has been rJproduced. No part of the text has been ornitted.

No authorr s name appeared on the orlginal edition, an{ tle title


page HaS exactly as shom on page I below. AnSr errors or faults of
Repcrt No. 14 are those of the
io!i", etc., in the main bod.y oi ttre
origlnal Air Force author or authors'

of this copy differs from


The only ways in which the page arrangement
the original Air frorce edition are as follol'rst
original re-
tr] The chl square tables on pages 62-67 and'^7O-75 of the
per page. For oconorqy, these have been
pcrt were urrurrg"a one tatle
ptacea two per page in this edition'

tZl Page 76 of the original editicn has been reoroduced in two parts, as
nage nurnbers) of this eCition, to emphasize
pBges +l ati--lO ("ip"t
betweln sections and avoid sn1lt-up of the text by the
the dlvision
Chl Square tables.

The case numbers have been written in on the sketches of the twelve
tl] The orlg-
nsood ,INKi'td;N';iciiiiNcs- (pages 52 to 6t ?! tlis ed'ition) '
iial ed.ition did not put such numberson the sketches.
originally accounted
t+] The hea,]ing at the top of pa,ge 69 (this editj-cn)
at the top of nage
for two pr!u" of the rupo,{, and was incorn.rtted
69 tor econolryo
to sorae
please note: The original- report assigned double nage numbers
practise when a blank prrre fo1-1ows a orinted
pages, as is usual Goiernment
page.Thisisthecaseonpages2ofthlsedition,whichwaslabeled
po["t n295 and' 296't Ln the original edition'
DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE 7"3
W ASH IN GT ON

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY

15 November 1955

Dear Mr" Davidson:

I know that during the past several rnonths you have


had
considerdble correspondence with the Air Force and
the Defense
Departrnent regarding special Report #14, the Air Force project
Blue Book. The intent of this letter is to inform you of our posi-
tion on the Blue Book as defined by the secretary -Force.
of the Air

we distributed a press release and a sum*ary


at th€ tirne
the report was officially released. we rnade the full report avail-
able in the Inforrnation offices of this Headquartere
and in the Air
Force Information offices in New york and
Los Angeres. The repor t
is still available at these placeso we
did not distribute the report
rtself because the cost was prohibitive.

while the Air Force has never denied anyone


access to the
above-mentioned rocations for the purposes
of either reading or
copying the report, we have not felt justified
to expend public funds
to assist in cornmercial reproduction of the report.

I trust this serves to rnake clear the position of the Air Force.

Since rely,

&v*
ANDRE\r y/J. KTNNEY I
Brigadie'r General, USnlf
Director of Information Services

Mr. Leon Davidson


54 Prospect Street
llrhite Plains, New york
Analvsis of the ProJect Blue Bogk Reporb 19. 14

W Dr. Leon Davidson

The Blue Book Report No. 14 ls roproduced ln tbe pages following


this analysls. The press release on page D-5 (which when lssued was ac-
co@ani.ed by the Surnrnaryof the HLue Book Reoort, pages vil to lx of
the orlsinal text) glves the background of the ALr Force's lnvestigatlons
whlch led. to the wrtting of Report No. 14 and lts release on October 25t
t955.

A good.history of the earLier Air Force lnvestigations of the nsau-


cersrf (iftf"tr hcfuae ProJect SIGN in L947-48 and Project GRUDGE in I9t+*5O)
Ls given ln the book rrThe Report on Unldentifled Flying Objectsn by Edward
J. Rupnelt (Doubleday and Co., ffub., NentYork, 1956).

It will probably be evident to careftrl readers of the Report No. 1/rr


ilanalyslstr will not
even in its fql-1 origLnal ed.ition, that the Air Force
fhroughout its frlnvestlgationsn, the ALr Force has
bear careful scnrtlny.
withheld lnfomatior fmm the public. As a result, Lt is ilposslbLe for
interested members of the general nublic to find out all that has been re-
ported about flying saucers. Ttre publ-ic has not had acoess to al-l- the
pirotogr""hs anil other evldence l.rnith the Air Force has anassed. on the zub-
ject. Under these conditions, the public has not been abl-e to draw the
about the nature of the ilsaucersrr'
iorrect conclusions
Bl-ue Book Report,
At the end of this analysls, before the body of the
trsuggestion to the Readerrr'
will be found. several paragraphs head'ed
Thoughtful persons who rdsfi to learrr the facts about flylng saucers nay
llnd these suggestions of interest.

The analysis below will- be in questiorand-answer fom.

tf] What pereentage of the gaucer sighting cases rernaln trUnlorownil?

The nress release on the fsClng pase, and the sumary fron the reportt
were the bnty rnaterial nede readily avallab1e to the publle by-ProJect
Blue Book. ihe ful1 text of the report was essentially u:ravailable to
Subconrnlttee
the pqblic, as shown in the Fecord' of Hearings of the House
olr ,Sovern*ent rrrfo"t"ii"" (Rep. John E. Moss, Chairman) for Nov' L5, ]..956'
Cne mlght wonder whether the Alr Force had octually wanted to keep the
fu11 report from the pubIlc, and lf so, why{

lhe answer may be fcr:nd. by reading tho text and' tables of the reportt
I arr.ii.ecmparing 't,hls the Sururoaryrdl;tdUlte$ publicly with tbe press re-
I Iease. Tthekey to ',ith the ansr,reris cbnta:ned in Flg. I (or1S. p..2d) and
\ T.,bles L7, A2, u"A lj-(orig. pp. 10? and 108). Flg. I sho*s that unknown
tt :,iohtin,,s'"o"ititute 33.f,, of-aff the object sightines-f9l wnign the re-
nExcellentrt. Tables A1--43 ag3ee
1..ir,:rji'ity of iire sighl:."/ f" consi'dered
are inglud'ed, the-pen'
t
I ,,,hi-si even if sigtrtings of lesser reliability
It ,,j.rrr
I (.-.,,ii1.:t,,-:
sf U:-rl;rr:.'r.rn
silfrtinls j-s not less than about 204' Note that tbe
i::-:'c,rriat,icn in Llie nain body of the report covers the years I9l+7-'L952'

ianalysis continues on Page f?)


NO . t o 5 3 - 5 5
IMMEDIATE RELEASE ocToBER25, tg55 LT 5-6T00, Exr T5r3L
AIR FORCE RELEASES STUDY ON
UNIDEI{TTETED AERJ.AL.,0EJEOTS

The results of an lnvestlgatlon begun by the Alr Force in 1947


l n t o t h e fl el d o f U nl de n tlfled- Aer lal o65ectl fr yin e- -
s a u c e r s ) w ere rel -e a se d by bhe Alr For ce ioday.' t""- "air ed

No evldence of the exlstenee of the popularly-termed. ,,flylng


s a u c e r s ' w a s fo u n d .

Th: report was based on study and analysls by a private


scientlflc g rou p un d e r th e super vlslon of tle elr "Technical_
l l g e n c e ce n te r a t D a yto n ; oh1o. slnce the r nsCigation Intel -
vestlgatlon or the 1n-
more than seven ygars ogo, rnethods iilo p"o"edures have
been so reflned thai; of the i:f srg[ti.ngs reported durlng
the flrst
four months of 1955 only three per-cent were ]lsted as n[mrow".--(n
s u n m a r y of th e rep o rt l s attached.)

!' ^ on this report, rflg-q^q-etary of the gtr Fg-r_ceDonald A,


I
tAr -Qgeqles
-commentlng
-e_al$: "on the basls oi.irrrS. sirroy:w -i'.ifa""- ;il; ;;"*'*
o b j e c t s su ch 'as th o se p o p ur ar ly descr lbed as r r yin[
[ilL.i
overflown the unlted.:States.
q*eJr,,*t-*.9ou1d
I reet eertaln th;t 5r".r
have been exprirned. as
"ur rthe
hav e
"u*s unknown
!"!f$*e-p9,r-.
or llruslons phenomena
1f more complete observatlonal data "orrJ..ritonat
had ueen
i; avallable.
jj

"However, we are now enterlng a perlod of avlation technology


ln whlch alrcraft of unusual conrfg;riiro" and fllght
t l c s w 1 ll b e g l n to a p p e a r. characterls-

"The A1r Force and the other Armed servlces have under
ment several vertlcal-rls1nsr develop-
hlgh p."io"*unce alrcraft, and as
e a r l y a s fa st-yea r a p rop elr 6r oir vbn- ver tr "ar - "isin[
flown- T h e A 1 r F o rce w i l t f1y the r ir si ar r cr aft w as
Jet- power ed ver tlcal-
r l s l n g a l rp l an e 1 n a matter oi oays.- - !' r ; have- another pr oJect under
contract wlth-AVRO Ltd., of Canadi, wfricfr could
shaped alreraft.gorgo*hr! result ln disc-
srmrrar i5 irr"-poprrlar concept of a flylng
s a u c e r . A n a va l l a b l d p l ctur e, whir e only an
couLdlllustrate ar tlstsr gonceptl on,
such an obJecg..(plglgEt";ii G"iiiiraur. ar
Pictoriar Branch, RoomzD7B6;nitj-7ffJir.
"rnthlle some of these may take novel forms, sueh as the
p r o J e c t r -th e y are dl re ct-l l ne AVRO
d.escendents of conventlonaL alr c r aft
and should not be regarded as supra-naturar
p e c t t o de ve l op a trpl an e s that- wiir or mysterlous. we ex_
ir y- r gster , hlgher and perhaps
f a r t h e r th a n p rese n t d e si gns,_bgt tGt"wtr l stir i- EuJy natunat l aw s
and lf manned, they w1ri-Jtr1l be manired by normal terrestrlat
men. other than reducing runway requlrements aj-r-
v e r t l c a l - rl sl ng we do not expect
al rcraft-to hav6 m or e- or tstandlng m llltar y char ac -
terlstlcs th a n con ve n tl on a L types.
r
l/ -6

" V e rtl ca l -ri sl ng alr cr aft capable of tr ansltion to suPer s onl c


horlzontal flight wfif be a new phenomenon ln o.rr sl{ies, and under
c e r t a ln con d l ti o n s co u Ld glve the 1lIuslon of the so- cal- led fl y l ng
saucer. The Department oi Defense w111 make every effort wlthln
bounds of s""rr*iby to keep the pubIlc lnformed of these developments
so they can be relcogoized for what -they are.'l

Mr. O;rarles added: "I thlnk we must tecognLze that other


c o u n t ri es a l so ha ve the capabillty of developlng ver tlcal- r ls l ng
aircraft, perhaps of unconventlonal shapes. However we arerflylng satls-
fGa-;t €ni" tlme that none of the slghtlngs of so-calfed
saueers t reported in thls country were ln fact alrcraft of forelgn
o r i g l n, "
END

Attaehment

- 2-
Slnce the Sdnnaly glrres flgqres of Yl for the Unlsrowncases ln
L95T-I954, md onLv fi for the Udmown cases Ln 1955 (up to I'{ay 5), tt
ls evltlent that persons not harrlng the firl-l reporb avallable would not
Iorou that fl. to M. of the cases had been left as Unlcrown in the naln
study. The fuimary absolutely fail-s to quote gII nurerical results for
L9/v7--I952. Ornemay surrise that the Alr Force did not want the pubIlc
to licrow that such a hlgh percentage of the reports rernained Unlrror,m, and
that this was one reason for nsking the fu11 repor'u unavailable, for all
practlcal pur-Doses,to the pub1lc.

tZl What ls the 'neanlng and purpose of the Chl Square test (pages &'-76
of the orlginal ed.ltion) ?

The paragraph at the bottom of page 6O and top of page 61 (orig. ed.)
explaJ.ns the purpose of the rrChi Squaren test, and the statlstlcal theory
lnvolvod ls d.escribed on page 61. The reason for maklng thj-s test was
slrnply thisr The author(s) of the report felt that lt mtght be possible
to show by thls test that the Unknolrn cases were realIy Just llke the
Knornaeases, after all. If this could be shomr, it would then have been
slryIe to say that the Urrlrror,rnshad been essentlally the same.'obJects as
the Knorms, and there would bave been no residual tfunknownttt)pe of obJect
(tlftying saucertf) to talk about.

As lt turned. out, the author(s) naa to adnLt, at top of p. 68 (orlg.)


Se!"Jhem"-uee_y_enr*11-!t-1s--p*ebqF-iUtu.*tbq!*!-L_-*uabe[ps*r{eril!be*q,_q{e-_"as
rrsaucersrl
the Knomrs. Btrt they refused to adrnlt that this meant that
could[ be a real t5rpe of novel obJect. Notice how they ear"y on the ctrtggle
to prove that the Unlsrowrrsare the same as the Knornos, until at the end
of the rr0hl Square Testrr sectton, they admit that the results are incon-
eluslvo.
------*-
IZJ What ls the deflnition of {Flylng Saucern used ln the Blue Book Report?

0n p. 1 of the orlglnal terb, thlrd paragraph, a definltlon ls given


whleh is used by the author(s) of the report. It lnrplles that some rsecret
military weaponil may be involved., by use of the worrls trFree World'r and
nintmder alrrraft[.. There is no mention of frinterplanetary vehic]-esrl
either from terrestrial or extra-terrestrial sources.

Also on page 1, ln the second paragraph, is a fscetious deflnition of


nflying saucer'r r.rhlch, lf adopted, would prevent any ldentification or
erylanation of flying saucers, by its very worrling.

Unfortunately, the author(s) of the report, when refer"rlng to the


deflnition of rtfl-yin6' saucern, (as for lnstance in their Conelusions, orig.
p. 9t, fourbh paragraph), nerely refer to ntflying saucersr(as defined
on Page 1) il. This leayes somssrhat confused the questlon of which of the
two deflnitions on page 1 they are refer"ring to.
qiven at the end of
L+) Hor,;dld the author(s) arrive at the conclusion,tr...it
the flrst fu11 paragraph on orig. page 91, that ls still impos-
sible to develop a plcture of what a rflylng saucerr l-s. n?

Persons trained ln science and engineerlng, and thoss educated in the


fields of 1aw, accounting, business, medecine, or other disciplines in
which logical ttr:inkins is a requislte, should be able to unravel the utter
,l nonsense eontalned Lb',the section of the report called rt The I I'lylng
ii Saueerr Modeln, on orlg. pages 76--94.
attentlon to several faets:
It should be sufficient to call

(a) The author(s) founa only twelve cases reported, in enough detail to
T merit conslderatlon. Anyone who has fol1or^red the subJect knows of
f naqy other cases of detailed sightlngs which would selrre as we11r or
V better, than the dozen selected for the Blue Book analysi-s.

(U) In d.iscussing these twelve detailed cases, the report ornits detall-s
such as the names of the localities and other identifylng information
which there is absclutlly no reason to r.,rithhold. The reason for thls
may be to try to hinder readers who rnlght want to compare other ver-
sions of those same eases r,rith the versl-ons presented @ the report.

(") The sketches of the obJects ln the fuport have a certaln studied
awlorardness about then, as lf the arbist had been lnstrlcted to nake
the obJects look as different as posslble and as queer as possible.
For exarryle, the sketch of Case III resembles two frankfurters lying
one across the otber. The arbist ls certainly a skllled draftsman;
the shading v€ry clearly shows the cyllndrlcal- shapes of the franlc-
furters. Yet the descriptlon given by the pilots in Case III speci-
fles nan afuplane with a ciga:s-shaped body and stralgbt wingsn.
T?ris sketch ls absurd as an illustratlon of that. Llko'dse, the
stuange whlte narkings or openings on the Case IX sketches have no
relation to tbe accoryarying tert.

(a) The failure to place the sketches of Case V-I and Case \IJII on the
same psge hid.es a very remarkable resemblsrtc@o

(") The key to the situatlon is forrnd ln the extra conditions throrm ln
at the mid.dl-eof page 9t (or18.). Presrunably all- trrel-ve cases had
fulfilled such conditions or they wouId not have surrlved the weed.ing-
out process. (See p. ??, orig.).- The prlze example is paragrapb (6)
on page $2. By throwlng case trl-I out at thls golnt, the author(s)
wer-. {hen able to throw out Case I|JII ln par. (8), slnee the nateh be-
tween these tnro sketches had been lost by ellninating Caso fl. Like-
wlse, Case III uas ellmlnated because Case II hail been thrown out.
tsl were the author(s) justified on page 93 (orlg.) in saying
the following?

ItIt may be that some roi)orts represent


observaticns of not one but
several elasses of objects that mkht have been rtflylng saucersrl how-
everr the lack of erridence to confi:rn even one class l+"',.rtd seeln io nalce
this possibllity remoie. rl

This appears to be another ercamnle of faulty toglc. The author$s)


had just thror,rn out cases because they did not rLsenrble (supposed.ly)'.ny
other eases. This should be consldered evldence that there- naJr be more
than one class of trflying saucersrr. rn fact, at the top cf page 91 (orig.)
the author(s) list four categories of shapes, wirlch nrigirt be clnsid,:red
to define four rrclasgesn of saucers.

The logical \
erzor here may be seen ln the paranhrase cf the a oove ----t I
quotation: rr l.Ie found many different ty,oes of saucers. l.ie could not find I{ /
just one class. We could not find even cne class. I'herefcre, we c:u-l-C Ix
not flnd rnore than one class. n rhis type of reasoning, in wirich the l
author(s) of the Blue Book report indulged, is utterly'absurli.

t5] what are the lrnportant polnts in tho trconclusionsn on p. 9r+ (orlg.)?

The author(s) adn:it in the first sentence that they cannot }rrcve that
trflying saucersrt In the last sentenee, they Jo not d.eny
d.o not e>dst.
that saucers corrld. be novel governmgntal devices, ncw existing. \iowhere
is there any discussion as to whether or not there is evidence to prove or
disprove that saucers nlght be erbraterrestrlal objects or devieee.

Lll t,lhat vitally inrportant technical aspect was cnitted from thr: nna'l'nsi s
by the Blue Book Project?

At the botton of page 6 (orig.), it is erqglained that, after the study


was well under way, lt v.rasfound that there was a [...rr€ed for the defini-
tion of a new factor relating to the naneuvers of the object or objects...rl
[Maneuvers rvould inelude the well-knovrn characteristics of hovering, very
sharp turns, rapld speod changes, wobbly f11ght, swinging llke a pendulurn,
etc.J The last paragraph of page 5 (orlg.) stetes tr...8t the tine that
the maneuver factor was deterrnined to be cri-tical, it was physically inr-
pnaatLGable to.rrro€vs'luate the original data. Therefore, no eod.e for
maneuverability has been included...rl

t8] l^lhat sigrificant change was mad.ein the categories provlded for final
ldentifications, before the final report r^rasrritten and issued Qr the Air
Force?

On page 12 (orig) the categorles ilfnsufficient Inforrnationrr and. rTJn-


lcnornmnare e>qplai.ned. The whole report ls written on the basls oi those
two categorles and the others 1lsted on page 10 (orif.). Hovtrever, a nost
interesting ehange may be obsenred on .trage 85 Grj,g.) which is page 82
of this editi.on.
It r"rttt be seen, ln the cod.es for Flnal ldentiflcation, that the
category or{.ginally called ilRoekets and }4iss11es[, ln the early work
of the ana\rsis, was changed to be call-ed ilfnsuffLclent Infomatlonfr.
Llkewise, the final category of t?tlnknomnhad orlginally been cal-led
nElectrornagnetic Phenomenontr. (The typerrrltten strlkeovers and ehanges
on page 295 (orig.) appear that way in the origlnal Air Force Edltlon,
and-this editlon ls a trre photo-copy of that page.)

It ls lnteretting to specrrlate oa the roason for changing the narnes


these eategorles. Note that the obJects flnally rridentifled'f as ln
of
the nUnknowntrcategory lnclude almost all of the cases whlch would seem
to be aetual "flytng laucerstr as the pubi-lc rrnd.erstands the tenn. There-
trelectro-
fore, the fact that the ALr Force or{.ginally called this category
rnagnetic phenomenonrrnay indlcate that the BLue Book lnvestlgatlve staff
had reason to b611eve that objects l-ike the typlcal- nflying saucern ntgbt
be electronagnetically pr"ope11ed. Thls ls of more than casual lnterest
because of tho perslstent storles that circuJ-ate, which indleate that
nsaueers[ nake use of some system of electronagnetic prtpulsl6n'

Sussestlon to the Reader

After read.ing the BIue Book Report r"rhich starts on the next page, lf
you feel a desira to see the coryJ-ete set of tables and graphs (onltted
here for reasons of cost) r Iotr nright try to bortour a coplt of the full-
report fron the Air Foree. Wr{.te to the Secretaqy of the Ai-r Force,
Pentagon Bu:llding, Washington 25, D.C., and ask for one of the loan copies
of Blue Book Special- Reporb No. I{.

If, after readlng the report as glven here, you feeJ- that the Alr
Force should be able to glve a definite an$.ter to such specific questlons
as rfDo flrving objects of-(such and^such) shape e>dst?', ioo ntght wr{.te
to your Congnessm"nor Senator, or to the President of the United States,
and ask hLs asstbance ln obtalning the answer to your specl-flo question
from the Alr Force.

On page 37 of the official transoript of the press conferenee of


Maj. Gen. John A. Samfonl at the Pentagon, July 291 7952, a question
was askeC of the Gcneralt rrls Lt some very highly secret nsst weapon
that welre workJ.ng on thatrs causlng these flying saueer reporbs?tl
The General anshter€dl rWe have nothing that has no nass and unlimited
powert n The tranocQt lndicates [Laughter] at that point, and. well lt
rnight. If yor belleve that a more meanlngful antl definlte angwer Ls ia
ord.er from the Alr Foncer Xou ruight rrite to arry of the officials nen-
tioned above for a speelfic answer to the specific question quoted in
thls paragraph.

The publisher of thls edltion would be very happy to learn of any


responses which nright be obtained b5r readers f&llorring any of these
suggestions. A1so, ar{r conments from readers would be welcore.
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(ANALY$S OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBTECTS)

P RO J E CT NO . I O O 7 3

5 M AY r 955

AIR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE CENTER


WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR F'ORCE BASE
OHIO

No copyslght m at.r l al l a c ontel nc d l n thl r publ l c .tl on.


L
TAB LE OF C ON TE N TS

vii
SUMMARY
I
I N T R O D U C T ION
3
O R I G I N A N D NAT URE Or . DAT A
4
R E D U C T IO N OF DATA TO M ECIIANIZED COM PU T AT ION F OR M

4
Q ue sti onnair e . .
6
C o d i ng System and W or k Sheet
7
Id e n ti fication of W or king Paper s.
IO
Evaluation of Individual Reports . .

l4
A N A L Y S IS OF THE DATA .

la
F req u ency and Per centage Distr ibutions by C har ac ter i s ti c s
lo
Gr aphical Pr esentation . .
l6
Advanced Study of the Data
l6
Position of the Sun Relative to the Obs er v er .
60
Statistical Chi Squar e Test
ao
T he "Flying Saucer " M odel

94
C ON C L U S IO NS

A P P E N D I X A. T ABUL AT ION OF F REQUEN C Y AN D PE R C E N TA GE


D IS T R IB U TIONS B Y CTIARAC TERISTICS

255
A P P E N D IX B. W ORKING PAPER FORM S

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

U ni t, and A1I Si ghti ngs l7


F i gu re I Fr equency o{ Sightings by Year fo r Obj ec t,

and AU Sightings for All Years l8


l 'i gu re 2 Distri.bution of Evaluations of Object, Unit,

of Object Sightings by Ev al uati on for Al l Year s W i th C om Par i s ons


F i g u re 3 Distr ibution
r9
of Each Year for Each Evaluation C r oup . '

for Al l Year s and Eac h Year z0


F i g u re 4 Distr ibution oI Object Sightings by Ev al uati on

zl
F i g u re5 D i str ibutionofobjectSightingsbyEvaluationlt/it hi nM onths for Al l Year s

by C er tai n and D oubtful Ev al uati ons for


F i e u re 6 Distr ibution of Object Sightings
zz
All Year s and Each Year .

of Object Sightings and Unknom Object Evaluations by


!'i g u re 7 Frequer,cy z3
M o n th s, 1 9 4 7 - 1 9 5 2

of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups With


F i g u re 8 Distributi.on
Evaluation Distr ibutions for Ea c h Gr oup '

of Object Sightings Among the Four Sighting Reliability


F i g u re 9 Distribution z5
Cr oups for All Year s and Each Year . .

of AII Sightings by Si ghti ng R el i abi l i ty Gr oups , Segr egated


F i g u re l0 Distr ibution
by M ilitar y and Civilian Obser v er s , W i th Ev al uati on D i s tr i buti on
Zt)
{ or Each Segr egation

Distr ibution of Object Sightings by R epor ted C ol or s of Obj ec t( s ) W i th


F i gu re I I z7
Evaluation Distr ibution for Eac h C ol or Gr oup . '

l2 Distr ibution of Object Sightings by N um ber of Obj ec ts Seen per Si ghti ng


F i g u re z8
W ith Evaluation Distr ibution for Eac h Gr oup

l3 Distribution of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting With Evaluation


F i g u re 70
Distribution for Each Duration Group .

111
LIS T OF ILLU STR A TION S
( C onti nued)

Page

F i gu re l4 Distr ibution of Object Sightings by M onths Am ong the Ei ght D r r r ati on


Gr oups for A11 Year s 30

F i g u re I5 Distr ibution of Object Sightings by Shape of Obj ec t( s ) R epor ted W i th


Evaluation Distr ibution for Each Shape C r oup . 3t

F i gu re l6 Distr ibution of Object Sightings by R epor ted Speed of Obj ec t( s ) W i th


Evaluation Distr ibution for Each Speed Gr oup . 3Z

F i gu re I 7 Distr ibution of AII Sightings by Ob s er v er Loc ati on for AII Year s and Eac h y ear . . 33

1 8 Com par ison of Known and Unknom Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by C ol c r , 1947- 1952 34

t 9 Com par ison of Known and Unknom Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by N um ber of Obj ec ts
per Sighting, 1947- 1952 35

F i g u re Z0 Com par ison of Known and Unknow n Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by Speed, 1947- 1952 36

F i gu re Zl Com par ison o{ Known and Unknown Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by D ur ati on, l 94T - 1952 37

F i gu re 22 Com par ison of Known and Unknown Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by Shape, L947- 1952 38

F i g u re 23 Com par ison of Known and Unknown Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by Li ght Br i ghtnes s , 1947- L952 39

F i g u re 24 Com par ison of M onthly Distr ibution of Obj ec t Si ghti ngs Ev al uated as As tr onom i c al
Ver sus Total Object Sightings Les s As tr onom i c al . 40

F i g u re Z5 Com par ison of M onthly Distr ibution o{ Obj ec t Si ghti ngs Ev al uated as Ai r c r aft
Ver sus Total Object Sightings Le s s Ai r c r aft 4t

F i g u re 26 Com par ison of M onthly Distr ibution of Obj ec t Si ghti ngs Ev al uated as Bal l oon
Ver sus Total Object Sightings Le s s Bal l oon, 4Z

F i g u re Z7 Com par ison of M onthly Distr ibution of Obj ec t Si ghti ngs Ev al uated as Ins u- ffi c i ent
Infor m ation Vdr sus Total Object Si ghti ngs Les s Ins uffi c i ent Infor m ati on . 43

F i gu re 28 Com par ison oI M onthly Distr ibution of Obj ec t Si ghti ngs Ev al uated as Other
Ver sus Total Object Sightings Le s s Other

F i g u re 2p Com par ison of M onthly Distr ibution of Obj ec t Sightings Evaluated as Unknom
Ver sus Total Object Sightings Les s U nk now n 45

F i gu re 30 Char acter istics Pr o{ iles of Object Si ghti ngs by T otal Sam pl e, Know n Ev al uati ons ,
and Individual Known Evaluations, Wi.th Unknom Evaluations Supe rimpos ed . . 46

F i g u re 3l Fr equency of Object, Unit, and All Si ghti ngs W i thi n the g. S., 1947- t952, by
Subdivisions of One Degree of Latitude and Longitude

F i g u re 32 Distr ibution of Object Sightings by Ev al uati on for the T w eLv e R egi onal Ar eas of
the U, S., W ith the Str ategic Ar e as Loc ated . 48

F i g u re 33 c om par ison of Evaluation of objec t s i ghti ngs i n the s tr ategi c Ar eas of the
Centr al East Region 49

F i g u re 34 c om par ison of Evaluation of object s i ghti ngs i n the s tr ategi c Ar eas of the
Centr al M i.dwest Region 50

Figure 35 comparison of Evaluation o{ object sightings in the strategic Areae of the


Centr al Far west Region 5I

Figure 36 comparison of Evaluation of object sightitrgs in the strategic Areas of the


South Midwest Region , . 5Z

Figure 37 comparison of Evaluation of object sightings in the strategic Areas of the


South W eBt Region .
53

1\/
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

Page

Figure 38 Comparieon of Evaluation of object sightinga in the strategic Areae of the


South Far we8t Region , . 54

)b
F i g u re 39 Diagr am of a Celeetial Spher e.

F i g u re 40 Frequency of Object Sightinge by Angle of Elevation of the Sun, Intervals


of l0 Degr ees of Angle.
57

r rg u re ar Frequency of Object Sightings by Local Sun Tlme, Intervals of One Hour 59

T ab l e I Object Sightings 60

T ab l e II Chi Square Test of Knoms Vereus Unknoms on the Basis of Color 6z

UI Chi Squar e Test of Knom s Ver eus U nk nom e- on the Bas i s of N um ber 63
T ab l e

Table IV Chi Square Test of Knoms Veraua Unknoms on t]le Basis of Shape 64

T ab l e V Chi Square Test of Knoms Versus Unknoms on the Baeie of Duration of Observation . of

VI Chi Squar e Test of Knom s Ver s us U nk nom s on the Baei s of SPeed b6


Table

T ab l e V II chi square Test of Knoms vergus unknoms on the Basie of Light Brightness bI

chi square Test of Revised Knoms vergus unknoms on the Basig of color 70
Table VIII

chi square Test of Revised Knoms Versus Unknoms on the Bagia of Number. 7l
Table IX

7Z
T ab l e X ChiSquar eTeetofRevieedKnom gVer e us U n}nom eontheBas i s ofShape

Table XI ChiSouar eTestofRevisedKnom sVer g ugU nk nom s ontl r eBaei aof


.
73
Duration of Obeervation

of Revised Kn om s Ver s ue Unknoms on the Baeig of SPeed 74


Table X II Chi Squar e Test

o{ Revised Knoms Versus Unknoms on the Basis of Light Brightneas. . 75


Table XIII Chi Squre Test
SUIVIMARY

Reports of unidentified aerial objects (popularly terrned "flying


6aucers'r or "flying discs") have been received by the U.S. Air Force
since rnid-I947 frorn rnany and diverse sources. Although there was no
evidence that the unexplained reports of unidentified objects constituted
a threat to the security of the U.S., the Air Force deterrnined that all
reports of unidentified aerial objects should be investigated and evaluated
to deterrnine if rrflying saucers'r represented technological developrnents
not known to this country.

In order to discover any pertinent trend or pattern inherent in the


data, and to evaluate or explain any trend or pattern found, appropriate
rnethods of reducing these data frorn reports of unidentified aerial objects
to a forrn arnenable to scientific appraisal were ernployed. In general, the
original data upon which this study was based consisted of irnpressions and
interpretations of apparently unexplainable events, and seldorn contained
reliable rrreasurernents of physical attributes. T_;fs_*subjectivity of the data
presented a rnajor lirnitation to the drawing of ffi-ftmfeamfiiSiffi'";-6"t-"
did not invalidate the application of scientific rnethods of study.

The reports received by the U.S. Air Force on unidentified aerial


obJects were reduced to IBM punched-card abstracts of the data by means
of logically developed forrns and standardized evaluation procedures.
Evaluation of sighting reports, a crucial step in the preparation of the data
for statlstical treatrnent, consisted of an appraisal of the re.ports and the
subsequent categorization of the object or objects described in each report.
A detailed description of this phase of the study stresses the careful
atternpt to rnaintain cornplete objectivity and consistency.

Analysis of the refined and evaluated data derived frorn the original
reports of sightings consisted of (t) a systematic atternpt to ferret out any
distinguishing chaiacteristics inherent in the data of any of their segrnents,
(Z) concentrated study of any trend or pattern found, and (3) an atternpt
^
to deterrnine the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represent observa-
tions of technologic-al developrnents not known to this country.

The first step in the analysis of the data revealed the existence of
certain apparent sirnilarities between cases of objects definitely identified
and those not identified. Statistical rnethods of testing when applied indicated
a low probability that these apparent sirnilarities were significant. An
atternpt to deterrnine the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represented
observations of technological developrnents not known to this country necessi-
tated a thorough re-exarnination and re-evaluation of the cases of objects not
originally identified; this led to the conclusion that this probability was very
srnall.

The special study which resulted in this report (Analysis of Reports


of Unidentified Aerial Objects, 5 May 1955) started in 1953. To provide the
study group with a cornplete set of files, the inforrnation cut-off date was
established as of thgg5[*9.f*125.A*-".k will accordingly be noted that the
statistics containJd in all charts and tables in this report are terrninated

v11
with the year L952. In these charts , 3ZOL cases have been used.

As the study progressed, a constant prograrn was rnaintained for


the purpose of rnaklng cornparisons between the current cases received
after I January 1953, and those being used for the report. This was done
in order that any change or significant trend which rnight arise- frorn
current developrnents iould be incorporated in the surnrnary of thie report.

The I953 and L954 cases show a general and expected trend of
increasing percentages in the finally identified categories. -Jhey also show
decreasin! p..."rttages in categories where there was insufficient inforrna-
tion and those wherJthe phenornena could not be explained. This trend had
been anticipated in the light of irnproved reporting and investigating pro-
cedures "

Official reports on hand at the end of 1954 totaled 4834. Of these,


425 were ptoduced in I953 and 429 in 1954' These 1953 and 1954 indi-
vidual reports (a total of 854), were evaluated on the sarne basis as were
those received. before the end of" L952. The results are as follows:

Balloons ' 16lo

Aircraft 20To

Astronornical 2SYu

Other - 13%
Insu{ficient Info

Unknown

As the study of the current cases progress.ed, it became increasingly


obvious that if reporting and investigating procedures could be further irnproved,
the percentages of those cases which contained insufficient inforrnation and
those rernaining unexplained would be greatly reduced. The key to a hlgher
I'on the spottrinvestigations
percentage of appeared to be in rapid
"olntion" On tfte basis of this, a revised program was estab-
Ly trainJd personnel.
I'Unidentified Flying Objects Reporting"
f isfrea by AF Reg. ZOO-Z Subject:
(Short Tittre: UFOB) dated 1Z August 1954.

This new prograrn, which had begun to show rnarked results before
January 1955, providlea prirnarily that the 4602d Air Intelligence Service
Squadron (Air Oefense Cornrnand) would carry out all field investigations.
This squad.ron has sufficient units and is so deployed as to be able to arrive
Iton the spotrtwithin a very short tirne after a report is rece,ived- After
treatrneni Uy tf,. 4602d AISS, all inforrnation is supplied to the Air Technical
Intelligence Center for final evaluation. This cooperative prograrn has re-
sultedi sinc e I January I955, in reducing the insufficient inforrnation cases
to 77c and the unknown cases to 3lo, of the totals

The periocl I January 1955 to 5 May 1955 accounted for l3l unidentified
aerial objeci reports received- Evaluation percentages of these are as follows:

v111
Balloons - 26To

Aircraft - ZT'IO

Astronornical - 237o

Other - Z0%

Insufficient Info - 77o

Unknown - 3Yo

A11 available data were included in this study which was prepared by
x,no,
a panel of scientists both in and out of the Air Force. On the basis of this
is belieygd thst .1!1,thg u4identified..aerial o-Hse.€-*c6!:1d'htt*;'t-.'e'n
- .*-q4v-it.
- 9l-n_llingd if rno:9, co+pLete,,obs,s,r.v1!iena_l.da$a.
ha.4beg{r.qvqilablp., . .Insofar
as the reported aerial objects which still rernain unexpiairred are conc-rned,
there exists little inforrnation other than the irnpressions and interpretations
of their observers. As these irnpressions and interpretations havs been
replaced b-y the use of irnproved rnethods of investigation and reporting, and
by scientific analysis, the nurnber of unexplained cises has decieased-""pidly
towards the vanishing point.

Therefore' on the basis of this evaluation of the inforrnation, it is


cousidered to be highly irnprobable that reports of unidentified aerial obJects
examined ln this study represent observations of technological developrnents
outside of the range of present-day scientific knowledge. tt is enrphaiized
that there has been a complete lack of any valid evidence of physical rnatter
in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object.

1'<
XHIBIT B8

F AN IBM CARD

Ss.f, \
4,\
^ct"
C?
d J.s r B M- s r R V r c t u u n r A U
t- + vN :i o
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c '' i \f- r q- i - =* 6 @ 'r r €i o Bl onl - U nurc d

S i g h r i n g Rclio b ility :| t t e rl -(o


Fi nol l donfi l i c ori on

Ob ccrvcr Rcliobilir y -N i t -
.{l <,6 @r r R cport R c l i obi l i ty
'i g r -
Mo n cu vcrr Obrcrvcr Occ upoi i on

Finql E l cvolion Or i cnlofion

D i ro p p o o roncc Boor ing l ni l l ol Elcvofion


rl J , J ) @ijF (0 ; o )i
211 N : i -)
A c cclcr olion - Ini ti o l E c ori ng
:l - € i .i n .r ) .r i r ( 'r i l o i
Angul or Vclocity
Li gh t B ri g htnor r |-
S ho p c Si zc
I
.I o l j - N IJo +Jr t@;F6 :;o U
N u mbcr Spcod
u ) l :r
L i gh t C ol or ?t N :'r t :r , 6lr @
C o l or Group
-J 'D ::

S ou n d l;: t', @ l- E c.i l, rj-


Obi e c l Color
oi: t - Nljlo v:1 6 o!j r- a i i o );

Group H ow O b s e rv c d
o0 c
.:to o i ,F N ",o s,tg l s:"i r @i ) @;
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T im c Un itr ; F s.,E
H undrodths
S i g€
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@i ,r
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{'= Dcar ccr o i ;- N :;o sr ;6 !o !'r ,::
ngF
3t GIJ- N ;o :i ;6 € l r 'i F- oiio)u
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o
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:, :
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o :1 .- &:Jl i m e "j r n <J : (r) M i nutc s

d i M inuis
H our s
Kc y
l; s
T d;: Hour s
Yoqr

6 Monrh
Do y

Inc i dont Ss r i ql N u mb c r
L1
Si ghri ng l den ti f i c qri on
S u b rcri ol Num bcr
N ., o s , qt F .,.. tn .;l
n .,
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I

315 and 316


I NT RO DUC T I O N
xol, oFr},rFoRMATro}t
!ubi I?*5,
i; f rf!{Frcu
,,..,.:rt sERvrcs,l
lu.'r ili.,,l"ion
In .TunePffglVi KounbfhvA)r,'nglg-ija'"npipp. Idaho, bus ine s s rnan and
pr iv ate prl oq*iffiUlfgiF:'iepd'4ea i'nf [iJ*+'"]i 3[ i ghting of a chai nl i k e
forrnation of dIJcj"slfa/'do{B$eBtttcnear Mount
" "
Rainieir,
'Washington.
Result-
ing newspaper publ.icity of .this incident caught the public interest, and,
shortly thereafter, a rash of reports of unidentified aerial objects spawned
the terrntrflying saucersrr. During the years since 194V, rnany reports of
unidentified aerial objects have been received by the Air Force frorn rnany
and diverse sources,

The unfortunate terrn I'flying saucerrr, ortrflying discrt, because of


its widespread and indiscrirninate use, requires definition. Many defini-
tions have been offered, one of the best being that originated by Dr. J.
Altren Hynek, Director of the Ernerson McMillin Observatory of The Ohio
State University, who has taken a scienJific interest in the problern of
unidentified aerial objects since 1949. Dr. Hynekts definition of the terrn
isrrany aerial phenornenon or sighting that rernains unexplained to the
viewer at least long enough for hirn to write a report about i1"( 1). Dr. Hynek,
elaborati ng on his definition, says, rrEach flying saucer, so defined, has
associated with it a prebable lifetirne. It wanders in the field of public in-
spection like an electron in a field of ions, until I capturedt by an explana-
tion which puts an end to its existence as'a !flying saucerrrr( l).

This definition would be applicable to any and all of the sightings


which rernained unidenti.fied throughout this study. However, the terrn
rrflying saucers" shall be used hereafter in this report to rnean a noveI,
airborne phenomenon, a rnanifestation that is not a part of or readily ex-
plainable by the fund of scientific knowledge known to be possessed by the
Free World. This would include such iterns as natural phenomena that are
not yet cornpletely understood, psychological phenornena, or intruder air-
craft of a type that rnay be possessed by sorrre source in large enough
nurnbers so that trlore than one independent rnission rnay have been flown
and reported. Thus, these phenornena are of the type which should have
been observed and reported rrrore than once.

Since 1947, public interest in the subject of unidentified aerial objects


fluctuated trlore or Iess within reasonable lirnits until the surnrner of 1952,
when the frequency of reports of sightings reached a peak, possibly stirnu-
lated by several articles on the subject in leading popular rnagazines.

Early in 1952, the Air Forcet s curnulative study and analysis of


reported sightings indicated that ttre rnajority of reports could be accounted
for as rnisinterpretations of, known objects (such as rneteors, baIIoons, or
aircraft), a few as the result of rnild hysteria, and a very few as the result
of unfarniliar rneteorological phenornena and Iight aberrations. However,
(l) Hynek, I. A., " Unusual Aerial Phenomena", Iournal of rhe Optical Sociery of America, 4g (4),
pp 3 11 -314, Apr il, 1953.
a significent rts bv reliable obser
rnained unexplaiqgsl Although no evidence existed that unexplained reports
of sightings constituted a ,rhysical threat to the security of the U. S.' in
March, 1952, the Air Forc e decided that all reports of unidentified
aerial objects should be investigated and evaluated to deterrnine if 'rflying
saucerstt represented technological developrnents not known to this country.

Originally, the problern involved the preparation and analysis of about


1r 300 reports accurnulated by the Air Force between 1947 and the-"end of
March, 1952. During the course of the work, the nurnber of reports sub-
rnitted for analysis and evaluation rnore than tripled, the result of the un-
precedented increase in observations during 1952. Accordingly, this study
is based on a nurnber of reports considered to be large enough for a pre-
lirninary statistical analysis, approxirnately 41 000 reports.

This s tu d y w a s u n d e r taken pri rnari l y to categori ze the avai l abl e


r epor t s o f s i g h ti n g s a n d to deterrni ne the probabi l i ty that any of the r epor t s
of uni d e n ti fi e d a e ri a l o b j e c ts represented observati ons of " fl yi ng saucer s".
W it h fu l l c o g n i z a n c e o f th e qual i ty of the data avai l abl e for study, yet wit h
an aw a re n e s s o f th e p ro p o rti ons thi s subj ect has assurned at ti rnes i n t he
public rn i n d , th i s w o rk w a s undertaken w i th al l the seri ousness accor ded
t o a s tra i g h tfo rw a rd s c i e n tifi c i nvesti gati on. In order to establ i sh th e
pr obab i i i ty th a t a n y o f th e reports of uni denti fi ed aeri al obj ects represent ed
obs er v a ti o n s of ttfl y i n g s a u cersrr, i t w as necessary to rnake an atternp t t o
i s a tfl yi ng saucert ? rt. H ow ever, i t rnus t be
ans we r th e q u e s ti o n ' rWh a t
er npha s i z e d th a t th i s w a s onl y i nci dental to the pri rnary purpose of th e
s t udy , th e d e te rrn i n a ti o n o f the probabi l i ty that any of the reports of un-
ident ifi e d a e ri a l o b j e c ts tep{esented observati ons of " fl yi ng saucersrr , as
de{ ine d o n Pa g e I.

T h e b a s i c te c h n i q u e for thi s study consi .sted of reduci ng the available


dat a to a fo rrn s u i ta b l e fp r rnechani cal rnani pul ati on, a prerequi si te f or t he
applica ti o n o f p re l i rn i n a ry stati sti cal rnethods. One of Internati onal
B us ine s s Machine C o rp o ra ti.onl s systerns w as chosen as the best available
r nec ha n i c a I e q u i p rn e n t.

The reduction of data contained in sighting reports into a forrn suit-


able for transfer to IBM punched cards was extrernely difficult and tirne
consurning.

F o r th i s s tu d y a p a n el of consul tants w as forrned, consi sti ng of bot h


ex per t s w i th i n a n d o u ts i d e A TIC . D uri ng the course of the w ork, guidance
and a d v i c e w e re re c e i v e d frorn the panel . The professi onal experi enc e
av aila b l e fro rn th e p a n e l covered rnaj or sci enti fi c fi el ds and nurnerous
s pe c i a l i z e d fi e Id s .

All re c o rd s a n d w o rki ng papers of thi s study have been careful l y

77 pr es erv e d i n a n o fd e rl y fashi on sui tabl e for ready reference. These


r ec or ds include c o n d e n s a ti o n s of al l i ndi vi dual si ghti ng reports, and the
IBM c ar d s u s e d i n v a ri o u s p h ases of the study.

ORIGIN AND NATURE OF DATA

Reports of sightings were received by the U. S. Air Force frorn a


representative cross section of the population o{ the U. S., and varied
widely in cornpleteness and quality. W.g,Ig ts- {rolTr reputabie
"Jry]yded, -lgpof
scientists, housgyiy..-,qr...{lI*9I."r. ..gt".4.!.t9.: .g.d .t"..t irii-if fy' it"i""d ..'...'-
"6;it of-' the Ai.rred fo.ces. Reports varied in Iength frorn a few sentences
stating that a "flying sauceril had been sighted, to those containing thou-
sands of words, including description, speculation, and advice on how to
handle the 'rproblern of the rfiying saucersr". ..
",.9-g",ll"!.S.fSPg.flF'.yg..r"e-,p.{.Ltigh ...1 :l
could rnake thern; , i_

j_-i.et_-i"i.1'-g
:,t"i_g'-i-T.e:. m,;;-ffi-i;e_!i._-,r.ii-brF:-
.p.e_"e-ri;.s*;-;ii#;.6 al. .
".*qy--""l.]ly,r'-.c.ol:.:,:-v.,.3ti-t-g,.-.e1d..19;1"9,"TP*ls,l,g.g"l.."l"tte.observer
"* ""::*i-,c
-g*.*P:r?"-ti-"-.n-*q{--!,bs,.,*P-o--li.? seen
thern was subrnitted by serious..peo"ol"e.r..gt_.y-sJiii:"9,"hy,Xla!.t-tteV,nad and

T h re e p ri n c i p a l s o u rc e s of reports w ere noted i n the prel i rni nary


r ev iew o f th e d a ta . T h e b u l k of the data arri ved at A TIC through regul ar
r nilit ar y c h a n n e l s , fro rn J u n e , 1947, unti l the rni ddl e of I952.

As e c o n d ty p e o f d a ta c o nsi sted of i etters reporti ng si ghti ngs sent by


c iv ilian o b s e rv e rs d i re c tl y to A TIC . Most of these di rect cornrnuni catron s
wer e date d s u b s e q u e n t to A p ri l 30, 1952, and are bel i eved to be the result
of a s ugg e s ti o n by a p o p u l a r rnagazi ne that future reports be di rected to t he
A ir T ec hn i c a l In te l l i g e n c e C e n ter. A s coul d be expected, a Iarge nurnbcr
of let t er s was re c e i v e d fo l l o w i ng thi s publ i ci ty.

A th i rd ty p eo f d a ta w a s that contai ned i n questi onnai re forrns corr l-


plet ed by th e o b s e rv e r h i rn s e l f. A questi onnai re forrn, devel oped duri ng
t he c our s e o f th i s s tu d y , w a s rnai l ed by A TIC to a sel ected group of w ri t er s
of dir ec t l e tte rs w i th th e re q u est that the forrn be cornpl eted and returned .
A ppr ox ir na te i y I, 0 0 0 re s p o n s e s w ere recei ved by A TIC .

I n g e n e ra l , th e d a ta w e re subj ecti ve, consi sti ng of qual i fi ed esti rn at es


of phy s ic a l c h a ra c te ri s ti c s rather than of preci se trreasurernents. Furth er -
r nor e, r n o s t o f th e re p o rts w e re not reduced to w ri tten forrn i rnrnedi atel y.
T he t ir ne b e tw e e n s i g h ti n g a n d report vari ed frorn one day to several year s.
B ot h of th e s e fa c to rs i n tro d u c e d an el ernent of doubt concerni ng the val i d it y
of t he or i g i n a l d a ta , a n d i n c re ased i ts subj ecti vi ty. Thi s w as i ntensi fi ed by

t he r ec og n i z e d i n a b i l i ty o f th e average i ndi vi dual to esti rnate speeds, d is-


t anc es , a n d s i z e s o f o b j e c ts i n the ai r w i th any degree of accuracy. In
s pit e of th e s e l i rn i ta ti o n s , rn ethods of stati sti cal anal ysi s of such reports rn
s u{ f ic ient l y l a rg e g ro u p s a re val i d. The danger l i es i n the possi bi l i ty of

3
IZ
f or get t ing th e s u b j e c ti v i ty o f th e data at the ti rne that concl usi ons are
dr awn f r or n th e a n a l y s i s . It rn u st be ernphasi zed, agai n and agai n, that a ny
c onc lus ions c o n ta i n e d i n th i s re port are based N OT on facts, but on w hat
m any obs erv e rs th o u g h t a n d e s ti rnated the true facts to be.

A lt oge th e r, th e d a ta f o r thi s study consi sted of approxi rnatel y 4, 000


r epor t s of s i g h ti n g s of u n i d e n ti fi ed aeri al obj ects. The rnaj ori ty w ere re-
c eiv ed t hr o u g h rn i l i ta ry channels or i n the forrn of observer-cornpl eted
ques t ionnair e s ; a fe w w e re a .:c e pted i n the forrn of di rect l etters from un-
ques t ionably re l i a b l e s o u rc e s . S i ghti ngs rnade betw een June, L947 , and
Dec er nber , L 9 5 2 , w e re c o n s i d e re d for thi s study. S i ghti ngs al l eged to have
oc c ur r ed p ri o r to 1 9 4 7 w e re n o t consi dered, si nce they w ere not reported
t o of f ic ial s o u rc e s u n ti l a fte r p ubl i c i nterest i n " fl yi ng saucers" ha{ been
s t ir nulat ed b y th e p o Pu l a r Pre s s .

REDUCTION OF DATA TO MECFIANIZED COMPUTATION FORM

A s re c e i v e d b y th e A i r T e chni cal Intel l i gence C enter, the si ghti ng


r epor t s we re n o t i n a fo rrn s u i ta bl e for even a quasi -sci enti fi c study. A
pr elir ninar y re v i e w o f th e d a ta i ndi cated the need for standardi zed i nterro-
gat ion pr oc e d u re s a n d s u p p l e rn e ntal forrns for the reducti on of currentl y
held and s u b s e q u e n tl y a c q u i re d data to a forrn arnenabl e to sci enti fi c
appr ais al.

T he p l a n fo r re d u c ti o n o f the data to usabl e forrn consi sted of a pro-


gr ar r l of de v e l o p rn e n t c o rn p ri s i n g four rnaj or stepsr (l ) a systernati c l i sti n g
of t he f ac t o rs n e c e s s a ry to e v a l uate the observer and hi s report, and to
ident if y t he u n k n o w n o b j e c t o b s erved; (Z) a standard scherne for the trans-
f er of dat a to a rn e c h a n i z e d c o rn putati on systern; (3) an orderl y rneans of
r elat ing t h e o ri g i n a l d a ta to a l l subsequent forrns; and (a) consi stent pro -
"
c edur e f or th e i d e n ti fi c a ti o n o f the phenornenon descri bed by' the ori gi nal
dat a.

Que s tionnaire

The first reports received by 4T.Ic varied widely in cornplet\eness


Air Force Letter 200-5(Z) and Air Force Forrn llZ\ri were
and quality.
atternpts to fix responsibility for and irnprove the quality of the reports of
To coordinate past efforts and to provide standardization for the
sightings.

(1) A modified Air Force Form 112 pertinent questionsto be answered in regard to an uniderttificd-objcct
sighting.
reportiug, and
(2) Air Force Letter 200-5 places responsibiliry with the Air Force f o r d r e i n v e s t i g a t i o n ,
analysis of unidentified aerial objects. This letter is dated 29 A p r i l 1 9 5 2 .
future, it was irnperative to develop a questionnaire forrn listing the factors
necessary for evaluation of the observer and his report, and identification
of the unknown objects. In addition, it was decided that such a questionnaire
should be designed to serve as an interrogatorrs guide, and as a forrn for
the observer hirnself to cornplete when personal interrogation was not possi-
ble or practicable.

Ideally, a questionnaire for the purposes required should contain


questions pertaining to all technical detaiLs considered to be essential for
the statistical approach, and should serve to obtain a rnaxirnurn of inforrna-
tion frorn the average individual who had rnade a sighting in the past or
would be likely to be reporting sightings in the future. Besides these dis-
crete facts, an integrated written description of a sighting would be re-
quired, thus enabling the reported facts of the sighting to be corroborated.
Also, a narrative description rnight allow subtle questions to be answered
concerning the observert s ability, such as indirect questions that would
reveal his reasoning ability, suggestibility, and general rnental attitude,
As a whole, then, the inforrnation contained in a questionnaire should rnake
possible the classification and evaluation of the sighting, the rating of the
observer, the probability of accuracy of reported facts, and the identifica-
tion of what was reported by the observer as unidentified.

During the course of this project, three questionnaire forrns were


developed, each intended to be an irnproved revision of the one preceding.
The irnprovernents were suggested and confirrned by rnernbers of the panel
of consultants connected with this project"

The original forrn was evolved by the panel of consultants as their


first work on this project. It was intended to allow the start of the reduc-
tion of reports to dis.crete data, and was irnrnediately subjected to exten-
sive review and revisi.on by the panel. The revised (second) forrn was
subjected to a trial test before adoption, ATIC sent a copy to observers
reporting sightings, with the request that the forrn be cornpleted and re-
turned. Of the first 300 questionnaires returned during July and Augus t,
1952, 168 were analyzed by a consulting psychologist. On the basis of this
analysis, plus the experience gained in working with past reports, the final
forrn of the questionnaire - the U. S. Air Force Technical Inforrnation
Sheet - was evolved. Copies of the three forrns of the questionnaire, in
the order of their developrnent, are shown as Exhibits BL, 82, and B3 in
Appendix B.

In order to irnplernent the transcription of data frorn past sighting


reports, each succeeding forrn was put to use as soon as it was developed
and approved. Accordingly, experience was obtained with each forrn in
relation to past data, an irnportant factor in the irnprovernent of the quality
and cornpleteness of the later reports included in this study.
C o d i ng S ystern and W ork S heet

Th e re d u c ti o n o f n o n -n urneri cai data to nurneri cal forrn i s rnanda t or y


in t he r n a c h i n e h a n d l i n g o f data. Thus, the sel ecti on of the IB M punched-
c ar d s y s te rn fo r a n a l y s i s o f data forced the adopti on of a rnaster codi ng
plan. Si n c e i t w a s i rn p ra c ti c abl e to transfer detai l ed data of an exact
nat ur e fro rn th e q u e s ti o n n a i re to the IB M card, an i nterrnedi ate transfer
f or r n, c o o rd i n a te d w i th th e rnaster code, w as necessary.

The rnaster coding plan was evolved during the early stages of the
prelirninary analysis of data, and was reviewed by the panel of consultants
before use. It was recognized that this systern of coding would be the
heart of the analysis, that is, the cornpleteness o{ the facility for trans-
lation of data could rnake or break the study. Accordingly, every conceiv-
able factor that rnight influence the identification of unidentified aerial
objects was included, together with a wide range of variations within each
factor. The original coding systern (with rninor corrections) was used
throughout the translation of the original data with rnarked success. A copy
of this systern, called CODES, is enclosed as Exhibit B4, Appendix B.

To facilitate the preparation of the punched-card abstract, an inter-


rnediate forrn called the VfORK SHEET (later, ttre C.A'RO BIBLE) was
<ieveloped. Referenced to both the data frorn the questionnaire and the sys-
tern of report identification, the WORK SHEET perrnitted an orderly
transcription of data sirnultaneously by several people. In conjunction
with the CODES, the WORK SHEET was used during the reduction of the
original data to code forrn necessary for transfer to punched cards' A
sarnple is included as Exhibit B5, Appendix B.

After the analysis was under wayr it becarne apParent that the rne-
chanics of rnachine processi ng could be irnproved by incorporating in the
IBM card systern grouP classifications of certain factors requiring rnore
than one colurnn for discrete expression. In addition, the inclusion of
certain data relating to the evaluation and bearing of the sun with respect
to the observer was considered necessary. Finally, a critical exarnination
of certain segrnents of the data indicated the need for the definition of a
new factor relating to the rnaneuvers of the object or objects sighted'
a corn-
Prior to the start of the analytical study, it had been assurned that
rnaneuver pattern'
bination of stated factors would, by inference, define the

AII these additions have been incorporated in a revised set of CODES


B.
and CARD BIBLE that are illustrated as Exhibits 85 and B7, Appendix
to be criti-
However, at the tirne that the lrlaneuver factor was deterrnined
to rnake the required definitions and
cal, it was physically irnpracticable
no code for rnaneuverability has
re-evaluate the original data. Therefore,
been included in the coDES, CARD BIBLE, or IBM cards.
Identification of Working Papers

The actual reduction of data to IBM punched-card forrn presented a


problern of rnass transfer of figures by several workers. Recognizing that
an orderly systern of relating the original data to the questionnaire, the
WORK SHEET, and the IBM card was irnperative, a scherne of SERIAL
NUMBERS was developed to answer this need.

The first data consisted of a series of letter-file folders identified by


the year and location of the sighting or sightings they contained. The nurn-
ber of reports of sightings in a single folder varied frorn I to over 2O.
Under these conditions, there was a great possibility for incorrect tran-
scription of data, duplication of transcription, or rnisplacernent of inter-
rnediate forrns. Further, it was considered desirable to relate all sightings
of the sarrre object or objects to one another. The concept of a four-digit
serial nurnber (rnajor), followed by a two-digit subserial nurnber (rninor),
was adequate to fulfill these requirernents.

To expedite i'andling of the data, ternporary serial nurnbers were


assigned until each report had been evaluated and the phenornenon had been
placed in a category of identification. The use of ternporarjr serial nurr.-
bers perrnitted the consolidation of duplicate reports frorn apparently
diverse sources, such.as a teletype rnessage and an Air Force Forrn I lZ.
However, this consolidation was rnade ONLY when it could be proved con-
clusively that the sources of the two docurnents were one and the sarne.
Factors of the observerts l ocation, date and tirne of observation, descrip-
tion of the phenorrlenon, and finally, the narne of the observer were con-
sidered. In this rrlanner, the assignrnent of rnajor serial and rninor sub-
serial nurnbers in continuous series was rnade only to the reports accepted
for the statistical study. It is believed that the reports accepted represent
unique and unduplicated instances of sightings.

I n th e e s ta b l i s h rn e n t of the seri al -nurnber systern, i t w as necessar y


t o def in e c e rta i n te rrn s , s o that a standard i nterpretati on coul d be ach ieved.
T he t er rn s a n d c o rre s p o n d i n g defi ni ti ons w ere:

OBSERVER - Any witness reporting to a proper authority that


he had seen unidentified aerial objects.

SIGHTING - The report or group of reports of the sarrre


observed phenornenon that rernained unidenti'
fied to the observer or observers, at least
until reported.
t6 SINGLE OBSERVATION
w
- A SIGHTING consisting of a single
report frorn ( l) one OBSERVER with no knowledge
of additional OBSERVERS of the sarrre phenorn-
enon, or (Z) a group of witnesses of the sarne
phenornenon, each cognizant of the others. The
witness who rnade the report is called a SINGLE
OBSERV ER.

MULTIPLE OBSERVATION - A SIGHTING consisting of


several rePorts frorn OBSERVERS of the sarne
phenorrrenon who were cognizant of each other.
The witnesses who rnade reports are called'
MULTIPLE OBSERVERS.

ALL SIGHTINGS - (l) The group of reports consisting of one


report for each OBSERVER' including both
SINGLE and MULTIPLE OBSERVERS' (Z) The
questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card
representi.tg tttg-:S-Porf frorn each OBSERVER -
in other words, the representation of each report
accepted for the statistical. study.

UNIT SIGHTINGS - (l) The grouP of reports consisting of one


report for each SIGHTING' including all the
reports of SINGLE OBSERVATIONS and the one
rnost rePresentative report frorn each MULTIPLE
OBSERVATION. (Z) The questionnaire, work
sheet, and IBM card rePresenting the report for
each SIGHTING accepted for the statistical study.

A rnajor serial nurnber (four digits) was assigned to each sighting,


segregating the Year of occurrence by selection of lirnits for each yeart as
f oIlows:

0001 to 0500 reserved f.or 1947


0501 to 1000 reserved for 1948
l00I to I500 reserved f.or 1949
I501 to 2000 reserved for 1950
Z00l to 2500 reserved for 195l
2501 to 4900 reserved f.or l95Z

While this scherne would serve to identify any individual sighting, identifi-
cation of each report and its subsequent forrns was necessary. The rninor
subserial nurnbers (two digits) fulfiiled this requirernent. For all SINGLE
OBSERVATIONS, a rnajor serial nurnber followed by two (Z) zeros, for
exarnple, 2759.00, was sufficient identification. For MULTIPLE OBSER-
VATIONS, the rnajor serial nurnber followed by a series of two-digit nurrr-
bers ranging frorn 00 to 99 was used to identify the individual reports. In
general, the rnost cornplete report frorn the rnost reliable observer of that
MULTIPLE OBSERVATION was identified with ttre .00 subserial nurnber
As an exarnple, a MULTIPLE OBSERVATION consisting of six sighting
reports would have the following serial nurnbers:

lI3Z"00 representing the best report and observer


ll3Z.0l representing an addi ti onal observer
L L3Z.0 Z repre senti.ng an addi ti onal observer
Ll3Z.03 representing an addi ti onal observer
LL3Z.04 representing an addi ti onal observer
ll3Z.05 representing an addi ti onal observer

D u ri n g th e c o u rs e o f t he transcri pti on of the data to rnachi ne card


f or r n, i t b e c a rn e obvious th a t certai n reports coul d have been i ndependent
obs er v at i o n s o f th e s a rn e p h enornenon. S o, i f the presentati on of an
analy s is b a s e d o n o n e re p o rt for each si ghti ng w as val i d (the concept o f
UNI T SIGH T IN GS ), a p re s e n tati on of an anal ysi s based on one report for
eac h ph e n g n l s n e n s h o u l d b e val i d al so. Further, the exarni nati on of dat a
r elat ing to th e a c tu a l n u rn b e r of phenorrrena w as consi dered to be the pr oper
bas is fo r a s s e s s i n g th e p ro b abi l i ty of technol ogi cal devel oprnents outsi d e
t he r ang e o { p re s e n t-d a y s c i e nti fi c know l edge. Therefore, a desi gnati on of
O B J E CT SIGH T IN GS was e s t abl i shed, w i th the fol l ow i ng defi ni ti on:

OB J E C T S IGH T IN G - (l ) The of reports


group consi sti ng of
o n e re p o rt for each phenornenon. (2) The
q u e s ti o n nai re, w ork sheet, and IB M card
re p re s e n t i ng a report for each phenornenon
a c c e p te d for the stati sti cal study.

In brief review, ALL SIGHTINGS refer to aIl reports, UNIT SIGHTINGS


refer to actual sightings, and OBJECT SIGHTINGS refer to the assurned
nurnber of phenorrlena.

I t rn u s t b e re c o g n i z e d that the process of i denti fyi ng OB JE C T


S I G HT I N GS w a s d e d u c ti v e , w hi l e that for U N IT S IGH TIN GS w as defi ni ti v e.
A c ons e rv a ti v e a p p ro a c h w a s adopted i n the deterrni nati on of OB JE C T
S I G HT I N GS, u s i n g th e fa c to rs of date and ti rne of observati ons, l ocati on
of ob' s e rv e rs , d u ra ti o n o f o b servati ons, and range, beari ng, track di re c-
t ion, an d i d e n ti fi c a ti o n o f th e phenornena. A ny error of sel ecti on of OBJECT
S I G HT I N GS w i l l te n d to b e i n the di recti on of reduci ng the actual nurnbe r of
phenor ne n a o b s e rv e d (s e v e ra l i nstances of U N trT S IGH TIN GS that rni ght be
one O B J E C T S IGH T IN G w e re noted, but the evi dence w as not concl usi ve
enough to j u s ti fy c o n s o l i d a ti o n of the reports).

Following th e d e te rrn i n a ti on of oB JE C T S IGH TIN GS , a seri es of


s er ial n u rn b e rs , c a l i e d th e IN C ID E N T S E R IA L N U MB E R S , w as establ i sh ed
t o f ac it r i ta te a n y fu tu re s tu d y of a speci fi c obj ect si ghti ng. E ach reporte d
s ight ing th a t re l a te s to a n OB JE C T S IGH TIN G recei ved the sarrl e i nci dent
s er ial n u rn b e r, a fo u r-d i g i t code paral l el i ng the rnaj or seri al nurnber
s er ies .

9
F or r n a c h i n e rn a n i p u l a ti o n , i t w as desi rabl e to be abl e to sel ect the
s ar nple of c a rd s (a l l re p o rts , a l l si ghti ngs, or al l phenornena) to be i n-
c luded in a p a rti c u l a r s tu d y . T h e concept of a S IGH TIN G ID E N TIFIC A TION
NUM B E R w a s e v o l v e d to fi l l th i s desi re. U si ng one col urrl n of the IB M
c ar d, and t h e c o rre l a te d w o rk i n g papers, the code for thi s functi on w as
d ev eloped. Mu l ti p l e p u n c h i n g e l irni nated the need to use several col urnns
for dis c r et e e x p re s s i o n o f th e v a ri ati ons. S el ecti on of the proper nurnber
i n t his c olurn n th u s p e rrn i tte d s e lecti on of the desi red sampl e of cards.

Ev a l u a ti o n of Indi vi dual R eP orts

E v alua ti o n o f s i g h ti n g re p o rts w as recogni zed as a cruci al step i n the


p r epar at ion o f d a ta fo r s ta ti s ti c a l treatrnent; i nconsi stent eval uati ons w oul d 1
h av e inv alida te d any conclusions to be deri ved frorn thi s study. A rnethod
of ev aluat ion w a s , th e re fo re , d e terrni ned si rnuLtaneousl y w i th.the devel op-
rnent of t he q u e s ti o n n a i re , th e c o di ng systern, and the w ork sheet. It i s
er nphas iz ed th a t a l l p h a s e s o f e val uati on, even i ncl udi ng the tedi ous prep-
ar at ion of th e o ri g i n a l d a ta fo r stati sti cal treatrnent, w ere entrusted onl y
t o s elec t ed, specially q u a l i fi e d sci enti sts and engi neers.

E v alua ti o n c o n s i s te d o f a standardi zed procedure to be fol l ow ed for:


(t ) t ne dedu c ti o n o f d i s c re te fa c ts frorn data w hi ch depended on hurnan i rn-
p r es s ions ra th e r th a n s c i e n ti fi c rrreasurerrrents, (Z) tfre rati ng of the ob-
s er v er and h i s re p o rt a s d e te rrn i n ed frorn avai l abl e i nforrnati on, and (3) the
det er r ninat ion o f. th e p ro b a b l e i d e nti fi cati on of the phenorrl enon observed.
Cat egor ies o f i d e n ti fi c a ti o n , e s ta bl i shed upon the basi s of previ ous experi -
enc e, wer e as {ollows:

B a Il o o n
A s tro n o rn i cal
A i rc ra f t
L i g h t p h enornenon
B i rd s
Clouds, dust, etc.
In s u ffi c i e nt i nformati on
P s y c h o l o gi c al rnani fe s tati ons
Unknown
Oth e r

T he f i rs t s te p the deducti on
i n e v a l u a ti o n , of di screte facts f rorn
s ubjec t iv e d a ta , re q u i re d c e rta i n cal cul ati ons based on the i nformati on
av ailable in th e s i g h ti n g re p o rt. A n exarnpl e w as the fi ndi ng of the approxi -
r nat e angula r v e l o c i ty a n d a c c e l e rati on of the obj ect or obj ects si ghted.
Car e was t a k e n d u ri n g th i s p h a s e of the w ork to i nsure agai nst the deduc-
tion of dis c re te fa c ts n o t w a rra n ted by the ori gi nal data. Thus, even
t hough t her e w a s a c o rn p l e te l a c k of any val i d evi dence consi sti ng of
t?
physical rnatter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object, this
was not assurned to be prirna facie evidence thattrflying saucersrrdid not
exist.

In those cases in which an atternpt to reduce the inforrnation to a


factual level failed cornpletely, the report was elirninated frorn further con-
sideration, and thus not incl uded in the statistical analysis. About 800
reports of sightings were elirninated or rejected in this rnanner. Most of
these reports'were rejected because they were extrernely nebulous; the
rest were rejected'because they contained highly conflicting staternents.

The second step in evaluation, the rating of the observer and his
report, Iogically followed the first step, the reduction of the data to usable
forrn. Ratinss were assipoed on the basis of tk;[g[ry;-+g""lggJp-*:.**91.*._:_.-_
*-**-e,w
forrnatiSn, considered in relation to one another:
**T;;;;;;;;;;;;;fr.rnhis
d
o c c u p a ti o n , aget a nd trai ni ng;

( Z) The consistency arrlong the separate portions of 'the


description of the sighting;

( 3) The general quality and cornpleteness of the report; *f

( 4) Consideration of the observerr s fact-reporting ability


and attitude, as disclosed by his rnanner of describing
the sighting.

I n c as es i n w h i c h i n s u ffi c i e n t i nforrnati on w as avai l abl e to rnake a j udg r nent


of t he o b s e rv e r or re p o rt, n one w as rnade, but the report w as accepted f or
t he s t ati s ti c a l s tu d y .

The third step in the process of evaluatior, jbg*g3lSmp.f*gA"|gg_-{tl.l_{-i*c_.gL;


- t:3"- g{!!'e .obje cto robje ctssie. h ! s g f f i* --f irs t b y t h e in d iv id u a 1
who r na d e th e fra n s c ri p ti o n of the data (the prel i rni nary i denti fi cati on), and
Iater (the final identification) two repre-
[*"jrgg!*g:g_l*c5*"gfJ*o_;+'{_.pgg_q-,g-.*€,
s ent at iv e s fro rn A T IC a n d two frorn the panel of consul tants. A l though
r epr es en ta ti v e s o f A T IC p a rti ci pated i n rnaki ng the fi nal i denti fi cati ons, it
rnust be ernphasized that,anJ*pjgyrp"J*"9*.*Lgg_t].Ilf":.g,e"t"Lo*l_Sl_*_',","lg.3jing rnade by
ATIC w a s n o t i n tro d u c e d o r referred to i n any w ay.

I n th e c o d i n g s y s te rn , the choi ces provi ded for fi nal i denti fi cati ons
wer e ba s e d o n A T IC t s p re v i ous experi ence i n anal ysi s of the data. They
had f oun d th a t th e rn a j o ri ty of si ghti ngs coul d be cl assi fi ed as rni si nterpr e-
t at ions o f c o rn rn o n o b j e c ts o r natural phenornena. A ccordi ngl y, catego r ies
f or obje c ts rn o s t fre q u e n tl y present i n the ai r w ere provi ded. B al l oons,
air c r af t , a s tro n o rn i c a l b o d i e s (such as rneteors), bi rds, and cl ouds or dust
wer e recognized a s rn a j o r c a tegori es. The l ess frequent, but cornrnon
objec t s , s u c h a s k i te s , fi re w orks, fl ares, rockets, contrai l s, and

ll
were collected into a
rneteorological phenornena like srnall tornadoesr
category ..ti"a OTHER. A separate category for the uncornrnon natural
such as rnirages'
phenornena associated with light reflections or refractions'
ice'
sun dogs, inversion-layer irnages, and distortions caused by airborne
categories for
was established with the title of LIGHT PHENOMENON.
INSUFFICIENTINFORMATIoN'PSYCHoLOGICALMANIFESTATIONS'and
not be fitted into the
UNKNOWN were provided for the sightings that could
An expLanation of their use follows:
preceding identifications.

INSUFFICIENTINFORMATIoN-Thisidentificationcategory
was assrgned to a report when, uPon final con-
sideration, there was sorne essential itern of
inforrnation rnissing, or there was enough
doubtaboutwhatdatawereavailabletodisallow
identification as a cornrrlon object or sorne
natural phenornenon. It is ernphasized that this
categgry of identification was not used as a
convenient way to dispose of what rnight be
called "poor un-knowns'r, but as a category for
reports that, perhaps, could have been one of
several known objects or natural phenornena'
NoreportsidentifiedasINSUFFICIENTINFoRMA-
TION contain authenticated facts or irnpressions
concerning the sighting that would prevent its
being identified as a known object or phenorrlenon;

PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS - ThiS idCNtifiCAtiON


c a te g o ry w as assi gned to a report w hen,
a l th o u g h i t w as w el l establ i shed that the ob-
s e rv e r had seen sornethi ng, i t w as al so
o b v i o u s that the descri pti on of the si ghti ng
a

,'hy
h a d b e e n overdraw n. R el i gi ous fanati ci srnt
d e s i re for publ i ci ty, or an over-acti ve i rnagi -
n a ti o n were the rnost cornl rl on rnental aber-
ra ti o n s causi ng thi s type of report;

This d e s i gnati on i n the i denti fi cati on code w as


UNKNOWN

il'
-
assigned to those reports of si ghti ngs w herei n
th e d e s c ri pti on of the obj ect and i ts rnaneuvers
c o u l d not be fi tted to the pattern of any know n
object or P henornenon.

were
For the purposes of this study, two groups of identifications
categories except the
recognized, tne f<NOWNS (including all identification
UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS.

Allpossibleidentificationsprovidedinthecodesystern,except
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION and UNKNOWN, could be assigned accord-
ing to two degrees of certainty, designated 'rcertain't and "Doubtful'r'

tz
S e e N ote a t Botton of Page Xl+.
x1 *AtrIR 2O(L2
l-5

AIR FORCE REGUI,ATION I DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE


NO. 20G-2 | WASHINGTON. 12 AUGUST 1964

INTELLIGENCE
Unidentified Flying Objects Reporting (Short Title: UFOB)
Po,ragraph
Purpose and Scope--- I
l Definitions ------------- 2
Objectives 3
Reiponsibility 4
I
G uidanc e- - - - - - - - - - - - - 5
ZI Collection 6
Reporting 7
EvidencJ---- 8
Releaseof Facts------ I

l. Purpoee and Scope. This Regulation es- (2) The possibilitv exists that an air ve-
^procedures hicle- of revoiutionary configuration
tablishes fdr reporting lnformation
and evidence pertaining to unidentified flying may be developed.
objects and scts forth the responsibility of Air (3) The reporting of all pertinent faetors
Force activities in this regard. It applies to all rvill have a direct bearing on the suc-
Air Force activities. cess of the technical analysis.
2. Definitiong: 4. Responsibility:
a. Unidentified Flyins Objects (UFOB)- a. Reporting. Commanders of Air Force
Relates to any airborne object which by perform- activities will report all information and evidenee
ance, aerodynamic charaeteristics, or unusual that may eome to their attention, including that
features doesnot conform to any presently known received-from adjacent commands of the other
aircraft or missile type, or which cannot be services and from civilians.
positively identified as a familiar object.
b. Inuestigation. Air Defense Command
b. Familiar Objects-Include balloons, as- will conduct all field investigations within the
tronomical bodies, birds, and so forth. ZI, to determine the identity of any UFOB.
3. Objectivee. Air Force interest in unidenti- e. Analusis. The Air Teehnical Intelligence
'Wright-Patterson
fied flying objects is twofold: First as a possible Center (ATIC), Air Force
threat to the security of the United States and Base, Ohio, will analyze and evaluate: All in-
its forees, and secondly, to determine technical formation and evidence reported within lhe Zl
aspects involved. after the Air Defense Command has exhausted
all efforts to identify the UFOB; and all informa-
a. Air Defense. To date, the flying objects
tion and evidence eollected in oversea areas.
reported have imposed no threat to the security
of the United States and its Possessions.How- d. Cooperation. All activities will cooperate
ever, the possibility that new air vehicles, hostile with Air Defense Command representatives to
aircraft or missiles may first be regarded as flying insure the economical and prompt successof an
objects by the initial observer is real. This re- investigation, ineluding the furnishing of air and
quires that sighiings be reported rapidly and as ground transporiation, when feasible.
cbmpletely as information permits.
5. Guidanee. The thoroughness and quality
b. Technical. Analysis thus far has failed
of a renort or investigation into incidents of un-
to provide a satisiaetory explanation for a num- identifled flying objects are limited only by the
bef of sightings reported. The Air Foree will resourcefulness and imagination of the person
eontinue to collect and analyze reports until all responsiblefor preparing the report. Guidance
sightings can be satisfactorily explained,bearing set forth below is based on experience and has
in mind that:
been found helpful in evaluating incidents:
(1) To me&sure scientific advances, the
a. Theodolite measurements of changes of
Air Force must be informed on experi-
azimut,hanrl clevation and angular size.
ment.ation and development of new
air vehicles. b. Interception, identification, or air search

+Tlris Regularion supereedesAFR 2OO-2,26 August 1953, including Change 200-2A, 2 NovemLer 1953.
AFR 2fi)-2
J-l
XZ
action. These actions may be taken if appro- submitted-additional data is required which
priate and within the scopeof existing air defense can be developedmore economicallyby the
regulations. nearest Air Force activity, srlch as: narrative
statements,sketches,rnarked maps, charts, and
c. Contact with local aircraft control and appropriate
so forth. Under suchcircumstances,
warning (AC&W) units, ground observationcorps commanders will be contactedby the 4602dAISS.
(GOC) posts and filter centers,pilots and crews
of aircraft aloft at the time and place of sighting c. Direct communicationbetween echelons
whenever feasible, and any other personsor or- of the 4602d AISS and Air Force acfivities is
ganizationswhieh may have factual data bearing authorized.
6n the UFOB or may-be able to offer corroborat- 7. Reporting. All information relating to
ing evidence,electronic or otherwise"
d. Consultation with military or civilian
UFOB'swill be reportedpromptly. The method
(electricalor written) and priority of dispatch I
weather forecastersto obtain data on: Tracks will be selectedin accordance with the apparent I
of rveather balloons released in the area, since intelligencevalue of the information. In most
these often 6rs ls."ponsiblefor sightings; and any instances,reports will be made by electrical
unusuai meteorologicalactivity which may have means: Information over 24 hours old will be
a bearing on the UFOB. given a "deferred"precedence.Reportsover 3
e. Consultation with astronomersin the area days old will be madeby written report prepared
to determine s'hether any astronomical body or on AF Form 112, Air Intelligence Information
nhenomenonwould account for or have a bearing Report, and AF Form 1"12a,Supplementto AF
bn the observation. Form 112.
f. Contact with military and civilian tower a. Addressees:
operators, air operations offices,and so-forth, to (l) ElectricalReports. All electricalre-
d^etermine whether the sighting could be the ports will be multiple addressed to:
result of rnisidentifieation of known aircraft. (a) Commander,Air Defense Com-
g. Contact with persons who might have mand, Ent Air Force Base, Colo-
knowiedee of experimental aircraft of unusrral rado Springs,Colorado.
configuration, roiket and guided missile firings, (b) Nearest Air Division (Defense).
and so forth, in the area. (For ZI only.)
(c) Commander,Air TechnicalIntelli-
6. ZI Collection. The Air Defense Commancl genceCenter,Wright-PattersonAir
has a direct interest in the facts pertaining to Force Base,Ohio.
UFOB's reported within lhe Zl and has, in the (d) Directorof Intelligence, Headquar-
4602d Air Intelligence ServiceSquadron (AISS), tersUSAF,Washington25,D. C.
the capabiiity to investigate these reports. The (2) Written Reports:
4602d AISS is composed6f specialistslrained for
fie1d collection and investigation of matters of
(a) Within lhe ZI, reportswill be sub-
air intellisence interest which oecur within the mitted direct to the Air Defense
ZI. This iquarlron is highly mobile and deployed Command. Air DefenseCommand
throughout the ZI as follows: Flights are at- will reproducethe report and dis-
tachecl to air defense divisions, detachments are tribute it to interestedZI intelli-
attached to each of the defense fotces, and the genceagencies.The original rcport
souadron headquarters is located at Peterson together with notation of the dis-
Ficld, Colorado, adjacent to Headquarters, Air tribution effectedthen will be for-
Defense Command. Air Force activities, there- wardedto the Director of Intelli-
fore, should establish and maintain liaison with gence,HeadquartersUSAF, Wash-
the nearest element of this squadron. This can ington 25, D. C.
be accomplished by contacting the appropriate (b) Outsidelhe ZI, reportswill be sub-
echelon of the Air Defense Command as outlined mitted directto Director of Intelli-
above. gence,HeadquartersUSAF, Wash-
ington 25, D. C. as prescribedin
a. All Air Force activities are authorized to
conduct such preliminary investigation as may "fnteliigence Collection fnstruc-
be required for reporting purposes; however, in-
tions" GCI), June 7954.
vestigations should not be earried beyond this b. SltortTitle. "IIFOB" will appearat the
point, unless such action is requested by the beginningof the text of electrieaimessagcs and
ltss.
+ooza in the subject of written reports.
b. On occasions-after initial reports are c. Negatiue Data. The word "negative"
{l
v?J
/\ AF.R 200-2
a{

in reply to any numbered item of the report (5) Locations of obsen'er(s). Exact iati-
forrnat \a'ill indicate that all loeical leads were tude and Iongitude of each observer,
develope-dwithout success. The phrase "not or Georef position, or position with
applicable" (N/A) s'ill indicate that the question reference to a known landmark.
doesnot apply to the sighting being investigated. (6) Identifying information of all ob-
d. Report Format. Reports will include the SC IVC I{SI:
following numtrered items: (a) Civilian-Name, age, mailing ad-
(1 ) D e s c ri p ti o n o f th e o b j e c t(s): dress, occupation.
(a ) S h a p e . (b) Military-Name, grade, organiza-
(b) Size compared to a known object tion, duty, and estimate of reli-
ability.
! (use one of the foilowing terms:
Head of a pin, pea, dirne, nickel, (7) Weather and winds-aloft conditions

& quarter, half dollar, silver doilar,


baseball, grapefruit, or basketball)
h e l d i n th e ' h a n d a t about arms
at time and place of sighlings:
(a) Observer(s) account of weather
conditions.
length. (b) Report from nearest AWS or U. S.
(c) Coior, Weather Bureau Office of wind
(d) Number. direction and velocity in degrees
(e) Formation, if more than one. and knots at surface,6,000',10,000',
(f) Any discernible features or details. 16,000" 20,000,, 30,000,, 50,000,,
(g) Tail, trail, or exhaust, inciuding and 80,000', if available.
size of same compared to size of (c) Ceiling.
obj ect (s) . (d) Visibility.
(h) Sound. If heard, describesound. (e) Amount of cloud cover.
(i) Other pertinent or unusual features. (f) T.'hunderstormsin area and quad-
rant in which located.
.2 ) D e s c ri p ti o n o f c o u rs e o f obj ect(s):
(a) What first called the attention of (8) Any other unusual activity or condi-
o b s e rv e r(s )to th e o b j ect(s)? tion, meteorological,astrononiical, or
(b) Angle of elevation and azimuth of otherwise, which might account for
the object(s) when first observed. the sighting.
(c) Angle of elevation and azimuth of (9) Interception or identification action
object(s) upon disappearance. taken (such action may be taken
(d) Description of flight path and whenever feasible, cornplying with
existing air defense directives).
ma n e u v e rso f o b j e c t(s ) .
(e) Manner of disappearance of ob- (10) Location of any air traffic in the area
j ect (s) . at time of sighting.
(f) Lengih of time in sight. (11) Position title and comments of the
preparing officer, including his pre-
(3) Manner of observation: lirninary analysis of the possiblecause
(a) Use one or any cornbinationof the of the sighting(s).
following items: Ground-visual, (12) Existence of physical evidence, such
g ro u n d -e l e c tro n i c ,a i r-el ectroni c.
il (If electronic, specify type of
radar.)
as materials and photographs.
e. Seutrity. Reports should be unclassified
il (b) Statement as to optical aids (tele-
scopes, binoculars, and so fofth)
unless inclusion of data required bv d above
necessitatesa higher classification.
-

used and descriptionthereof. 8. Evidence. The existence of physical evi-


(c) If the sighting is made while air- dence (photographsor materiei) will be prornptly
borne, give type aircraft, ideirtifi- reported.
, cation nurnber, altitude, heading,
speed,and home station. a. Photographic:
(l) Visu,al. The negative and two prints
(4) Time and date of sighting:
will be forrvarded, all originai film,
(a) Zulu time-date group of sighting. including u,herever possible boih
(b) T,ieht conditions (use one of the irrints ancl negalives,will be titled or
following terms): Night, d*y, otherwi.qe properly iclentified as to
dawn, dusk. place, time, and date of the incident
AFR 2fi)-2
8-9
xt*
(see"IntelligenceCollectionInstruc- 9. Releaee of Facte. Headquarters USAF will
tions" (ICI), June 1954). release summaries of evaluated data which will
(2) Radar. Two copiesof eachprint will inform the public on this subject. In response
to local inquiries, it is permissible to inform news
be forwarded. Prints of radarscope
photographywill be titled in accord- media representatives on UFOB's rvhen the
is positively identified as a familiar object
ance with AFR 95-7 and forwarded object
(see paragraph 2b), except that the following
in compliancewith AFR 95-6.
type of data warrants protection and sirould not
b. X[ateriel. Suspectedor actual items of be revealed: Names of principles, intercept and
materiel which comeinto possession of any Air investigation procedures, and classified radar
Force echelonwill be safeguardedin such man- data. For those objects which are not ex-
ner as to prevent any defacing or alteration plainabie, only the fact that ATIC will analyze
which might reduce its value for inteliigence the data is worthly of release, due to the many
examinationand analysis. unknowns involved.

Bv OnopnoF THESscnnrenvoF THEArn Foncp:

Orrrcre.r,: N. F. TWINING
Chief ol Stafi, United StatesAir Force
K. E. THIEBAUD
Colonel,USAF
Aii Adjutant General

DISTRIBUTON:
S; X:
ONI, Department of the Navy 200
G-2, Departmentof the Army 10

Thle docunent (AI'R 200-2) has besn rcproduced as


a pubLlc sorries for digtribution rlith the Thlrd
naitfot of the book TELYING SAUCERS: An Analysls
of the ALr Force PmJect BIuc Book Spocia3' nepgrt
No. 14tr. Slngle copics of thle AER S0-2 nay b€
requeited, frco of charg€r W tt+ttng to the pub-
irirtot at the add,ress s[own bn the baek cover of
tbe Thftd Edltlon of that book, eneLosl'ng a long
self-addresssd cnveJ.opebearing *[rst-c]ass
postago. Glvo Your ZIP-Code.

* u. s, eoyERxlEflr pRttrlto oFrlclr le!a


ll
A t'Certainrr identification indicated a rninirnurn arnount of doubt regarding
the validity of the evaluation. By 'rr:ule-of-thurnbrt reasoning, the proba-
i
bility of the i.dentificatj,on being correct was better than 95 per cent" A
i'Doubtful'! identification indicated that the choice was less positive, but
that there was a better than even chance of being correct.

I_-t f-q g ? Bgin. !!at, a s..wg p . true. f o1 .q.!h" 1. pha.9.es of e valua -


. *__= 1*1_ernpftep,f
?T= jiea only to sCietttisls
t1,91r plg,nrltrng,"y.'-"rq. fina1. f aerrtificafion- .,'y-"q,..ttg"
a-na engi*.e s whor-.,!n, addltign. t9. ttrei.r. br9,4d scientific.ba.ckground, had
fecei.ved instructi.on, where necessary, in specialized subjects. The panel
of consultants provided background inf,orrnation for this instruction. Many
I
of the cases representing unusual features or rnaneuvers were subrnitted to
and discussed with various rnernbers of the panel of consultants prior to the
l final identification.

Consistency in the application of the knowledge necessary for rnaking


identifications was rnaintained by frequent colLaboration arnong the person-
nel involved,, and systernatic spot checks of the work. In addition to the
generatr fund of knowi,edge required to id.entify satisfactorily a reported
unidentified aerial object, an atterrpt was rnade to correlate specific data
such as flight plans of ai.rcraft, records of balloon releases, weather con-
drtions, and azeastronorni.catr alrrranac with the reported sighting"

The procedure followed in rzraking final i.dentifications deserves ex-


planation because cf the irnportance assurned by the identification as a' basis
for statistical treatrnent" As was rnentioned, a corrference of four qualified
persons, two frsrn ATIC and two frorn the pa.nel of celnsultants, decided
upon the final identification for each sighting report. This work was done
at ATIC, peri,odica,trly, as reports becarne ready.

sighting report was first


J*y.?.1,-g-,.+"g,1..4,q'Jifigq.ti-9,n-c9l]fe1en;e,3ach
st"d;"a,'" 'f;;;"$;-;;ig1*.i-aitl, by'o"e'peison" If that person arrived at a
decision, it was checked against the prelirninary identification; if the two
identifications were the sarne, the report was apPropriately rnarked and
considered finished. If the two identifications did not agree' the report
i was considered later by everyone participating in the conference unti"l a
I group decision could be rnade.
{
If an evaluator was unable to categorize the report as one of the
corntTron objects or as a natural phenornenon, and his opinion was that the
re-
sighting should be recorded as UNKNOWN, a group decision was also
quired on that report before it was considered {inished. a.grogp de.c-ision.
as UNKNOy*' rEg.gfdless of
Lgp.,glts linally lecorded
*w.as...De--c.egq.?-TJ.,o.Il"eU
In cases where a graup
ldentificet|qqtrad.!9eri..
"-"ghgl-"1-b_-.-_q,5eii*inatV
decision was not rnade within a reasonable tirne, the report was put aside
and Later subrnitted to certain rnernbers of the panel of consultants for their
opinions. If, after this, disagreernent continued to exist, the report of, the
sighting was identified as UNKNOWN.._"
LL
Upon cornpletion of final identifications, all data were transferred to
IBM cards, preParatory to analysis.

A NA L Y S I S O F T HE DA T A

judicious
Broadly stated, the problern at this point consisted of the
the sub-
application of scientific rnethods of categorizing and analyzing
jective data in reports of sightings of unidentified aerial objects. It was
by a sys-
recog.rized that an approac h to this problern could best be rnade
give frequency and percentage
ternatic sorting and tabulation Prograln to
of the irnportant characteristics of sightings. A suggestion
distributions
all questions that rnight be asked in
that an atternpt be rnade to anticipate
provide answers'
the future about a sighting or a group of sightings, and to
was rejected. The systernatic approach also rnade it possible to develop
included in
a detailed reference rnanual of the attributes of the sightings
this studY.

plan was developed


Thus, at the beginning of the analysis, a detailed
frorn the punched-card
for sorting, counting, and tabulating the inforrnation
It was believed at the tirne, and later
abstracts of reports of sightings.
substantiated, that the results of the Prograrn for sorting'and tabulating
treatrnent involving
would serve as a guide for the rnore sophisticated
statistical rnethods.

Also,itwasanticipatedthatanypatternsortrendsthatrnightbe
in the hope of discovering
found could be subjected to concentrated study
of ttflying saucers"'
significant inforrnation relating to the characteristics
as certain of the
Further, it was believed that these trends could serve
in the atternpt to
criteria of validity for any concepts (rnodels) developed
ttflying saucers'r'
discover a class of

and tabulation prograrn,


The three parts of this study (t) ttre sorting
of the results of that prograrn, and (f) tfre investiga-
(Z) the advancedltoay
I'flying saucerrrfrorn
tion of the possibility of conceiving a rnodel of a
trFrequenc y and
descriptions reported, are discussed in sections entitled
I'Advanced Study of the Datarr'
Percentage Disiributions by Characteristicsr',
and rrThe tFlying Sauce'rt Modelrt'

Percenta Distributions Characte ris tic s

the availability of
The original conception of this study assurned
physical appearancer trraneuver
sufficient data to describe adequately the
characteristics, range, direction, and probable path of the object or
during the
objects observed. H-owe',ret, f"t riliarity with the data, acquired

l4
translation and transcription frorn reports to punched cards, indicated that
there would be relatively few specific variables or factors that would yield
rneaningful correlation studie s. ***hSg-*Ue*oJ.igf**?1..4_-+_1"1-lt"*t*g*1*r,.g**"**!j*e;:
e
:Sp___q"-rJs",rv.-p...s1d""F""e",Ll-e"!rsJ:--r*e*{g9
.3iJtu^.-.os-th€*i,!a#.g]p]"9:"e_::::..ot ".1hS.*.q*igi_m],
the sarnple of a specific*Variable.

Prelirninary tabulations of various sortings substantiated the irn-


possibility of deriving statistical results frorn certain variables, such as
rnoverrlent of the observer during the sighting, sound, shape pararneter,
size, angular velocity and acceleration, appearance and disappearance
bearing, initial and final elevation, altitude, and orientation of the object.
The statistically usable variables presented in this study include the date,
tirne, location, duration, reliability, and rnet\g5[*qf obserY*afion of the
i sighting, and the pf,lsical attrffites of nurnber, co*lor, sp*9g.-9,shape, light
brig-htne ss, and identi5cation of thgp$s.cts*s"i"ghted.

The presentation of frequency and percentage distributions of any of


the variables rnust be interpreted in the light of the sarnple of incidents
represented. For exarnple, the analysis of the reported colors of the
objects sighted, based on ALL SIGHTINGS, could lead to rnisrepresenta-
tion of the distribution of the reported color of the objects, because of the
rnultiplicity of reports on sorne of the phenornena. On the other hand, the
percentage distribution of the light brightness reported by each observer
is rnore likely to be correct than a distribution based on one report for
each phenornenon. To assure that the rnost nearly correct Presentation
was rnade, and to avoid the possibility of failure to uncover any pattern or
trend inherent in the data, the variables were studied on five different
bases or sarnples. These sarnples, and their nurnerical relation to each
other, were as follows:

ALL SIGHTINGS (all reports) 3r?0l cards


UNIT SIGHTINGS' all observers 2r554 cards
UNIT SIGHTINGS, single observer ZrZ3Z cards
UNIT SIGHTINGS, rnultiple observers - 322 cards
I OBJECT SIGHTINGS 2,I99 cards

I The prelirninary tabDlaqions indicated that the sarnples based on UNIT


SIGHTINGS, single observer, and UNIT SIGHTINGS, rnultiple observers'
would not add rnaterially to this study. Accordingly, although the fre-
quency distributions were recorded and are available for study, they are
not presented in this report.

The bases of ALL SIGHTINGS, UNIT SIGHTINGS (referring to all


observers), and OBJECT SIGHTINGS are presented in Appendix A as
Tables Al through A240. A critical study of these tabulations reveals that
there is no apparent change in the distribution of any variable frorn one
basis to another, and that no rnarked patterns or trends exist in any sarnple.
G raphical Pre sentation

Graphical representation of the irnportant inforrnation contained in


the tables is presented in Figures I through 38. These figures present the
distributions of the irnportant variables only by the total nurnber of cases
found
in each identification category, since no significant differences were
of rtCertainrt and trDoubtfultt identifications of
between the distributions
objects with respect to the variables. A chronological study of these
figures will afford a broad picture of the tabulated inforrnation, without the
necessity of a detailed study of the tables.

A critical exarnination of the figures will-ehow that no trendst Patternst


or corielations are to bC--fog *ittr ttt. exception of Figures I8 through 3
sirnilarity of the distributions shown by these rnirror graphs'
TL
t^ t
' Tfr- +p;rent
Y1,./
Figures I8 throug]n 23, was teqted by statistical rnFthods wlr3]lihoYed that
ff t her e
UNKNOWNS
was a low
b
P ro b a b i l i ty
were the sarne. These tests and their
ELil".t""istics
S and

owing section' For purposes of this


Tables
1, study, the strategic areas, shown in Figures 3Z through 38, and
Appendix A, were designated on the basis of concen-
1-zz3 through lzio,
interpre-
tration of reports of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in an area. No other
tation of the tables or rernaining charts was deerned necessary.

Ad vanced S tudy of the D ata

re c o g n i z e d th a t the l ack of any patterns or trends, as shown by


It w a s
provi ded an i nsecure basi s for draw i ng def init e
t he t ab u l a ti o n s .rrd g r.p h s ,
before the sorti ng and tabul ati on pr o-
c onc lus i o n s . A c c o rd i n g l y , shortl y
of study of the data w as devel oped to
gr ar r r w a s c o n c l u d e d , a p ro grarrl
a n d o th e r rnathernati cal rnethods, w hi ch coul d l ead t o a
ut iliz e s ta ti s ti c a l
r r lor e c o n c re te i n te rp re ta ti o n of the probl ern'

Position of the Sun Relative to the Observer

angle of elevation of
The first thing that was done was to calculate the
north as seen by the
the sun above the horizon and its bearing frorn true
\Mith this inforrnation, it could then
observer at the tirne of each sighting.
the reported object
be deterrnined whether there was a possibility that
In addition, it could be
could have been illurninated by light frorn the sun.
(sun dog) or whether
deterrnined whether an obj ect could be a rnock sun
an aircraft at the posi-
there was a possibility of specular reflection frorn
of a'rflying disc'r'
tion of the object, which would give the appearance

Aprograrnofcornputationwassetupandcarriedouttoobtainthe
sighting' A11 inforrna-
angle of elevation and the bearing of the sun for each
deck of IBM cards'
tion needed for this calculation was available on the

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PROFILESOF OBJECTSIGHTINGS
F I G U RE 30 C H A R A C T E R ISTICS BY
TOTALSAMPLE,KNOWNEVALUATIONS, AND KNOWN
INDIVIDUAL
EVALUATIONS, WITH UNKNOWNEVALUATIONS SUPERIMPOSED
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48
This inforrnation consisted of:

(l) Tirne and date of observation in Greenwich Civil Tirne

(Zl Latitude and longitude of the observer at the tirne of


observation.

Figure 39 shows a celestial sphere on which Z represents the ob-


serverr s zenith, s represents the sun, and N represents the north celest ial
pole.

Using the date and tirne of the observation, the longitude and declina-
tion (S) of the sun were obtained frorn an epherneris of the sun and corrected
for the equation of tirne. The difference between the longitudes of the sun
and the observer was taken, and called the hour angle (F{A on Figu}e 39).

Then, using the declination of the sun (S), the latitude of the observer
(tat), and the hour angle (EA), the angle (Zg) U.t*een the observerts zenith
and the sun can be calculated frorn the law of cosines of spherical trigo-
nornetry. Thus, cos ZS = cos (90 - lat) cos (90 - S) + sin (90 - lat) sin
(go - s) cos (FIA).

Since the angle ZS is rneasured frorn the observerr s zenith, the angle
of elevation of the sun above the horizon for daytirne sightings was found by
taking gO -re. When the sun was below the horizon, the angle of depres-
sion of the sun below the horizon was found by taking B - gO.

Having found the angle ZS, tt.e bearing of the sun (angle B) was ob-
tained frorn the forrnula:

sin (B) _
sin (90 - S)

A11 of the above calculations were rnade with IBM equiprnent. Sines,
cosines, and their inverses were obtained frorn a deck of 9r 000 IBM cards
on which seven-place Petert s tables of the sines, cosines, and tangents of
angles had been punched for each 0.01 of a degree frorn 0 to 90 degrees.

Upon cornpletion of these calculations, the cards representing OBJECT


SIGHTINGS were sorted on the sign of the sine of the bearing angle. This
separated the cards into two groups: (1) sightings which occurred between
noon and rnidnight, for which the sine of the bearing angle was positive; and
(Z) sightings between rnidnight and noon, for which the sine of the bearing
angle was negative. Then each of these groups was sorted into groups for
intervals of 10" in angle of elevation of the sun frorn -90" to +90". A count
was rnade of the nurnber of cards in each group and frorn this a histograrn
was constructed (Figure 40). The UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS were
then sorted out, counted in the same rrlanner, and a histogram was rnade
(again see Figure 40).
Fiorizon

F IGU R E 3 9 D IAGRAMOF A CELESTIAL SPHERE


A- 7! 35
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The following points should be carefully noted about these histograrns:

(l) The negligible nurnber of sightings when the sun is within


I0" of the zenith and nadir (angle of elevation of the sun =
*90") of the observer is due to the fact that the southern-
rnost latitude of the U. S. is greater than the declination
of the sun at the surnrner solstice, so that it would be irn-
possible for the sun to reach the zenith or nadir of any
observer in the U. S. (where rnost of the sightings were
rnade).

(Z) The tirne of day at which a particular angle of elevation


of the sun occurs does not rernain fixed but varies frorn
day to day. Consider, for exarnple, the variation in
sunrise and sunset tirnes over the course of a year.

Thus, there are only two inferences to be rnade frorn this histograrn:
(t) ttre high peak of sightings soon after sunset, and (2) the lack of increase
in the UNKNOWNS relative to the KNOWNS near either sunset or sunrise.
This would seern to discount the possibility that atrnospheric phenornena
such as rnock suns were the prirnary cause of the unknown reports, since
such phenornena usually occur when the sun is near the horizon.

The Local Sun Tirne was cornputed as a step in the calculation of the
angle of elevation of the sun. It is related to the hour anglg by the equation:
Local Sun Tirne (r-.s.T.) = IlA/15 + 12.00, where L.S-T. is in hours and
FIA in degrees.

The cards were grouped on the basis of L.S.T. in intervals of one


houri and the nurnber of cards in each interval was counted. Again the
UNKNOWNS were sorted out and sirnilarly treated. Histograrns were con-
structed with the re'sults of these tabulations of OBJECT SIGHTINGS
(Figure 4l). Here, again, there is a peak in the early evening hours.

The cards were then broken up into seven groups on the basis of the
angle of elevation of the sun, as follows:

Gr o u p I - Daylight sightings for which the sun was rnore than


I0" above the horizon.

G r ou p 2 - Sunset sightings for which the sun was between 0"


and 10" above the horizon.

G r ou p 3 - Sunset sightings for which the sun was between 0"


and 10" below the horizon.

Gr oup 4 - Evening sightings for which the sun was between


10" and 40" below the horizon.
o=
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foelqg lo r aqur nN
59
Group 5 - Night sightings for which the sun was Inore than l0'
below the horizon and which were not included in
GrouP 4.

Group 6 - sunrise sightings for which the sun was between 0o


and 10" below the horizon.

Group ? - sunrise sightings for which the sun was between 0o


and l0o above the horizon.

These grouP nurnbers were punched on the cards and incorporated


into the coding systern. The nurnber of oBJECT SIGHTINGS in each grouP
for each identification was then tabulated and is given in Table I.

TA B L E I O B J E CT S I G HT I NG S

A eof Elevation Grou


Identific ation

B alloon r56 L7 z8 83 40 az
A s tr onornic al 5Z 6 43 236 ll8 96
A irc r aft 187 z3 49 144 60 5Z
Light phenornena 8 z 4 z5 7 00
Insuffic ie nt inf orrnation 7Z LZ z6 76 28 z0
UNKNOWN 134 T4 z5 I50 86 67
Other 64 8 tz 50 36 37

TotaI 673 82 r8 7 764 375 25 24

According to this table, a large rnajority of the KNowN oBJECT


SIGHTINGS in Group I (343 out of 457) were either aircraft or balloons. In
Groups 4 and 5 cornbined, a large rrrajority (681 out of 899) were either
balloons, aircraft, or astronornical. Accordinglyr a re-evaluation of the
UNKNOWNS in these three groups was planned with the objective of deter-
rnining which of the UNKNOWNS in Group I rnight possibly be aircraft or
balloons and which of the UNKNOWNS in Groups 4 and 5 rnight possibly be
balloons, aircraft, or astronornical objects. More will be said of this
project later.

Statistical Chi Square Test

In the rneantirne, rnirror graphs had been constructed frorn the fre-
quency tabulations which seerned to show that, when the KNOWNS (total less
UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS were grouped according to one of six
characteristics, the percentage of KNOWNS and the percentage of

60
UNKNOWNS in each characteristic group showed the sarne general trend.
In other words, on the basis of these graphs, it looked as though there was
a good possibility that the UNKNOWNS were no different frorn the KNOWNS,
in the aggregate. It was decided to investigate this by the use of a
"ll.""t |tChi Square Testrr.
statistical procedure called the

The Chi Square Test is a statistical test of the likelihood that two
distributions corne frorn the sarne population, that is, it gives the proba-
bility that there is no difference in the rnake-up of the two distributions
being r rleasured.

The rnethod is outLined as follows:

( l) Adjust the distributions by rnultiplying the KNOWNS in each


characteristic group by the ratio of the total nurnber of
UI{KNOWNS to the total nurnber of KNOWNS. (ttre Ctri
Square Test is applicable only to distributions which have
the sarne total nurnber of elernents. )

(z) Take the difference between the nurnber of UNKNOWNS and


the adjusted nurnber of KNOWNS in each characteristic
grouP.

(3) Square the rernainder frorn Step Z.

(4) Divide the result of Step 3 by the correspondi.ng nurnber of


adjusted KNOWNS.

Th i s i s th e c h i s q u a re for the parti cul ar group. S urnrni ng the i n di-


v iduat r c h i s q u a re s o v e r th e groups of a characteri sti c gi ves the chi squar e
f or t hat c h a ra c te ri s ti c " T h i s nurnber i .s then cornpared w i th a tabl e o{ t he
dis t r ibut i o n o f c h i s q u a re w h i ch can be found i n rnany texts on el ernentar y
s t at is t ics "

I t w i l l b e n o te d th a t c h i square i s tabul ated i n terrns of degrees of


f r eedor n w h i c h i n th i s c a s e i s one l ess than the nurnber of groups of sight -
ings f o r e a c h c h a ra c te ri s ti c .

Th e ta b u l a ti o n s o f K N O\I/N S and U N K N OW N S agai nst the si x char-


ac t er is t i c s a n d th e C h i S q u a re Test as i t w as appl i ed are show n i n Tab les
I I t hr ou g h V II" In e a c h c a s e, the nurnber of degrees of freedorn i s gi v ent
as is t h e v a l u e o f c h i s q u a re s correspondi ng to probabi l i ti es of 5 per cent
and I p e r c e n t th a t tw o d i s tri buti ons w i th thi s nurnber of degrees of freedor n
c or ne f ro rn th e s a rn e p o p u l a tion. S rnce the greater the val ue of chi sq uar e
t he s r n a l l e r th e p ro b a b i l i ty of hornogenei ty of tw o di stri buti ons, a cal cu lat ed
v alue of chi s q u a re g re a te r than ei ther the 5 per cent or I per cent ' ralues
will ild i c a te a p ro b a b i l i ty l ess than 5 per cent or I per cent, respecti ve ly,
t hat t he tw o d i s tri b u ti o n s a re hornogeneous" The terrn hornogenei ty i s used
her e t o i n d i c a te th a t tw o d i stri .buti ons coul d have corrl e frorn the sarne
populat i .o n "
6i
+Z . rn {!,g o{ Ih.g
sitgrsgs,*}-be- glqPali\1ly-is lsrl tran I Per-:-g9l*thfl
uio.t".tooJto se' Light Brightness' the
-jL.
classificatio,'sffistobeofrealvalue.However,thesetests
do not necessarily rnean that the UNKNOWNS
are prirnarily "flying saucersrl
phenornena'
and not aircraft, balloons, or other known objects or natural
KNOWNS if either of the follow-
The UNKNOWN6 rnight still be unidentified
ing cases occurred:

(I)ThecharacteristicswhichwereobservedfortheUNKNoWNS
weredifferentfrornthoseobservedfortheKNowNsbecause
or because of
of the psychological rnake-up of the observer
This assurnes the distribution of
atrnoslheric distortion.
same'
objects in KNOlffNS and UNKNOWNS is the

(2)TheUNKNoWNSrnaybeknownobjectsindifferentpropor-
(That'is' a
tions than the group identified as KNOIiINS'
of the UNKNOWNS could be aircraft
,greater percentage
iclentified KNowNS')
than the percentage of aircraft in the

one. In this connection, it is


The second case is the Inore probable
contributed to a large chi square
interesting to note the factors which
result in the tests rnade above:

(l) Color

The rnajor contribution to chi square in color is frorn the


color green. There is a large excess-:-f-green sightings
Of the 130
among the KNOWNS over the UNKNOWNS'
98 areLstronornical'
known objects in this classification'
fireballs reported frorn
and are due rnostly to the green
the Southwest U. S.

(zl Nurnber

a greater proportion of
The large chi square is due to
classification. Apparently
UNKNOWNS in the rnultiple objeci
these are harder to identifY'

( 3) Shape
of UNKNOWNS
ln this caser there is a higher Percentage
classification' These rnight
in the rocket-aircraft-shape
rnaneuvers were
be farniliar objects for which unusual
reported.

KNOWNS in the flarne


There is a higher Percentage of
category' which in
and in the rneteo"-^ o" come-t-shape
frorn excesses of
both cases aPpears to result rnainly
astronornical s ightings'

68
(4) Duration of observation

Here there is an excess of KNOWNS irr the less-than-


5-second group. Again, the majority o{ KNOWNS in
this group are astronornical. The greater proportion
of UNKNOWNS in the 3l- to 60-second and 6I-second
to 5-rninute groups cannot be explained.

(5) Speed

The rnajor contribution to chi square for this char-


acteristic is due to a large excess of UNKNOWNS in
the over 400-rnph class. It can be assurned that sorne
of the excessive speeds are inaccuracies in estirnates
by observers. However, solne radar sightings, which
are practically irnpossible to identify, show objects
with speeds of 1r000 to 2r 000 rnph and over, and these
reports account for a nurnber of these UNKNOWNS.

(6) Light brightness

Since this chi square was not significant, it is not


necessary to discuss it here.

An exarnination of these discrepancies thus brings up a very interest-


ing point. In every case for which there is a significant excess of KNOWNS
over UNKNOWNS, the excess can be attributed to an excess of identifiable
astronornical phenornena. This would seern to lead to the conclusion that
astronornical phenorrrena are easy to identify and there are very few left in
the UNKNOWNS. Accordingly, the astronornical object sightings were
deleted frorn the KNOWN object sightings and the Chi Square Test was again
applied. The results are shown in Tables VIII through XIII, where in this
case the KNOWNS do not contain astronornical sightings.

It will be noted that sorne groups were cornbined when the adjusted
nurnber of KNOWNS was ten or less, except for the case for which the
nurnber of objects per sighting was the characteristic studied. These were
borderline cases, and no good cornbination of groups existed. li

It is apparent that the deletion of astronornical sightings gives a better


fit, although the decision is not clear cut, since for two cases (light bright'
ness and speed), the chi square increased. However, it can again be pointed
out that the reporting of these two characteristics is highly subjective and is ;
open to question. The estirnation of speed is especially open to question
because of the irnpossibility of accurately deterrnining it visually.

69
4+

AnotherinterestingasPectofthesenewtestsisthatthereareonly
twolargediscrepanciesinallofthegrouPs.Theseareforthellormoresighting and for the
by numbe-r of object3 P€r
groups in the classification
over40o-mPhandmeteor-likegrouPfortheclassificationbyspeed.The sightingr
[y aetetion of the astronomical
first was relatively unchangea
of sightings in the singlc-object
principally because of the Joncentration
catesory.Thesecondwasslightlyincreasedbytheremovalofthcactro-However' the main
meieor-like classification'
nomical sightings f rom the
discrepancy,thatofthee*..""ofUNKNowNsintheover-40O-mPhclasl'
was little changed'
/- rclusive since they neither confirm
r r..^-a
arthough
xisowNS,
unidentiriea
tr t "", o.:;",ff;ll:"
-m;lT':":T"i::i:n,
!lithey<loindicatethatrelativelyferrroftheUNKNowNsareactuallyastro-
i nomical Phenomena'
I
I + 'ed to its logical
process would not be carrr
7* lt was clecicled that this
conclusron(th:rtis,thedeterminationofalinearcombinationofKNoWNS
thatwotrldgivcirnegligiblechi"q'.ore.whencomparedwiththeUNKNoWNS)' a distorted
felt that the inaccuracies in the reports would give
since it was
;rtrcl nre;rningless result'
A d ju s t e d
Nurnber of Nurnber of
KNOWNS (K)
Nurnber of
UNKNoWNS (n)
,*Ili'
Color KNOWNS

rffhite 40 5 100 ll2 t.44


Metallic 313 77 76 0. 0l
Not stated zo9 5l 6z 2.37
Orange t7z 4Z 49 l. 17
Red L46 36 t3 o. 25
Yellow l28 3l 3l 0
Green 13 0 3Z l4 10. l3
Blue 67 t7 z6 4.76
Other 195 48 3l 6. 02

Total L765 434 434 26. t5

Degreee of freedom 8

5% r 5 .5
r% 2 0 .I

TABLE UI CHI SOUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS


UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF NUMBER

Number of Adjusted x2,


Objects Per Number of Nurnber of Nurnber of (K-nP
Sighting KNOWNS KNOWNS (K) UNKNOWNS (n) K

I I 339 329 297 3. lr


z 159 39 37 0. l0
3- l0 185 46 ?0 tz.5 2
I I or more 4l l0 z5 2 2 .5 0
Not stated 4l l0 5 2 . s0
Total r76s 434 434 40. ?3

Degr ees of freedorn 4

5To 9.5
lTo 13. 3

6z 63
:ai E,
F
a
Lrj
:tr
F
z
o CN
E
=o
E-
(9
. 96
=
i9e F
o cr I
6-o
ol
I
(n
o

F
c)
lr,
cl
-
o
l!
o
z
o=
o FO
:* o
s6
!o E .E
o;l 90 J cI -t lrl
rq
.:N
o
(t, .9 .9
=8,
{g ED '
- o- i1t j-
o EO l -U'
o tL LtJ
is o -OO
c O9E o=
3c o
!|r ) o 3g
5N i5
oaq
d)
6T
U)r
(EO
(t'
f
> lrJ
OF
( JF

F
ro
Ld
gc
)
(9
l!
shape
Nurnber
KNowNs
of
Adjuated
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)
itu
K

Elliptical 838 zo6 195 0. 59


Rocket and aircraft 80 zo 33 8.45
Meteor or cornet 55 l4 4 7.14
Tea rdrop, lenticular, 103 z5 z2 0.36
or conical
Flarne 96 z4 l0 8. l?
Other 193 47 54 l. 04
Not stated 400 98 ll6 3. 30

Total 1 76 5 434 434 29.05

Degrees of freedom 6

5% 12.6
r% r 6 .8

TABLE V CHI SOUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS UNKNOWNS


ON THE BASIS OF DURATION OF OBSERVATION

Adjusted YZ,
Duration of Nurnber of Nurnber of Nurnber of (K-n)c^
Observation KNOWNS K NO WNS (K UNK NO WNS

5 sec or less 259 64 zv 21.39


6-10 sec 92 z3 zl 0. l7
I l-30 sec 153 38 33 0. 65
3l-60 sec r08 z6 4Z 9.85
6l sec-5 rnin 269 66 99 16.50
6-30 rnin 305 75 7L 0. 2l
Over 30 rnin 135 33 37 0. 48
Not stated 444 t09 104 o. 23

Total 1765 434 434 49.49

Degrees ef freedorn 7

5To 14. I
r% 18. 5

64 65
TABLE VI CHI SOUARE TEST OT' KNOWNS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SPEED

Adjustcd
Number of Number of Numbcr of
Speed KNOWNS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS

StationarY 249 6r 53 l . 05
Less than 100 mPh 154 38 z6 3.79
100 to 400 rnph l 8l 45 58 3. ?6
Over 400 rnph 403 99 145 2t.37
Meteor-likc 83 zo l6 0.80
Not stated 69s t?t 136 7. l 6

Total 1765 434 434 3 7.93

Degrees of freedorn 5

ssh I l. I
tsh 15. I

T A B L E V II CHI S QU A RE T E S T O F K NO WNS V E RS US UNK NO W N S


ON THE BASIS OF LIGHT BRIGHTNESS

A d ju s t e d ,,!-,,,
Nurnber of Nurnber of Nurnber of (5-tt)'
KNowNs KNOWNS (K) UNKNO1f,NS (n) K

Sunlight on mirror 47 ll l4 0.82


Sunlight on aluminum t5l 37 z8 z. 1 9
Sunlight on plaster, 76 l9 l6 o .4 7
stone, or soil
Brighter than rrloon 273 67 6l 0. 55
Like rnoon or duller 68 t7 zz 1.47
than rnoon
Not stated l1 5 0 283 293 0.35

TotaI 1765 434 434 s. 8 5

Degrees of freedorn 5

5To ll.l
llo 15. I

66 67
TAB LE V III CHI S OU A RE T E S T O F RE V I S E D K NO WNS V E RSU S
r7
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF COLOR

Adjusted x2,
Nr-lrnber of Number of Nurnber of (ry-")2
Color KNOWNS KNOWNS (K) UNKNOWNS (n) K

White z8t 95 llz 3. 04


Metallic 298 l0 l 76 6. 19
Not stated 189 64 62 0.06
Orange ll7 39 49 2. 56
Red 92 3l 33 0. l3
Yellow 90 30 3t 0.03
G reen 32 ll t4 0.82
Blq.le z9 l0 261
I o.57
Other 158 53 3rJ
Totat r 28 6 434 434 13. 40

Degrees of freedorn 1
t

\Yo 14. I
lV o 18. 5

TA B LE IX CHI S QU"& RE T t rS T O F RE V I S E D K NO WNS V E RS US


UNKNOWNS ON THE tsASIS OF NUMBER

Nurnber of Adjusted x2,


Objects Per Nurnber of Nurnber of Number of ( K-")z
Sishtin KNOI,VNS KNOWI"IS (K UNK NO WNS (n K

I 913 308 297 0. 39


z t42 4E 37 2. 52
3- lr ) 168 57 70 2.96
I I or r r lo re 34 ll z5 r 5.3 6
Not s t at ed z9 10 5 2, . 5 0

T ot al r a86 434 434 2 3. 7 3

Degrees o{ fneedorrr 4

5Vo 9"5
jfn l? a
4 TABLE X
' ut uNKNowNS oN THE BAsIs oF
'HAPE

Adjusted X2,
Nurnber of Numbcr of (K-niz
Numb e r o f
K NO WNS (K UNKNOWNS K
Sha K NOW NS

zl3 195 l. 52
Elliptical 632
z4 33 3 . 3?
Rocket or aircraft 7Z
Meteor or comet
FlArne
9
47
3
l6 ,l)
zz
l. 32
0 .93
lenticulart 79 27
TeardroP,
or cdnical l . 76
l5l 5l 54
Othe r 2.56
296 100 r l6
N ot sta ted
414 414 r 1.46
Total l 286

t
Degrees of freedorn
I t. r
5To t5 . r
llo

VERSUS UNKNOWNS
TABLE XI CHI S QUA RE TE S T OF REVISED KNOWNS
ON THE BASIS OF DURATION OF OBSERVATION

Adjusted
Nurnber of Nurnber of ( K - ") z
Duration of Nurnber of
KNOWNS K NO WNS (K UNK NO WNS
Observation

3l z7 0 . 52
5 sec or less 9Z
l6 2l r. 56
6- 10 sec 47
40 33 t. 23
I l-30 sec ll8
3I 4Z 3 . 90
3l-60 sec 9Z z.3r
25z 85 99
5l sec-5 rnin 7l 2.94
259 87
6 min-30 mi n 37 l. r 6
9l 3l
Over 30 rnin
lt 3 104 o .7z
Not stated 335
434 434 14. 34
Total r 286

7
Degrees of freedorn
14. I
5To 18.5
LTo

13
7Z
TABLE X II CHI S OUA RE T E S T O F RE V I S E D K NO WNS V E RS US
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SPEED

Adjusted urz
At

Nurnber of Nurnber of Nurnber of ( K -n i z


Speed KNOWNS KNOWNS (K) UNKNOWNS (n) K

Stationary 196 66 53 2.56


Less than 100 rnph l28 43 26 6.7 2
100 to 400 rnph 155 5t 58 9.47
Over 400 mph 29r 98 t45
z4 2 8 . 54
Meteor-like 8 l6 )
Not stated 49r 166 136 5. 42

Total l 286 434 434 43.7 |

Degrees of treedom 4

5To 9.5
Ito 13. 3

'I'AI}LE XIII CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS


UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF LIGHT BRIGHTNESS

Adjusted Yz,
Nurnber of (K-n)a
^
Nurnber of Number of
L-ight Ilrightncss KNOWNS KNOWNS (K) UNKNowNS (n) K

S unlight o n n ri rro r z4 8 t* I z. 67
S unlight o n a l u rn i n u m 136 46 28 1
S unlight o n p l a s te r, 63 2t l6 l. r g
s t ot r t : , o r s o i l
I l r ight c r th a n rrro o n 143 48 6l 3.52
Lik e r noon o r d u l l e r 42 l5 zz 3.27
t h; r r r nr oo n
Not s t ; r t ed 878 296 293 0 .0 3
'l't-rt; r I I 286 434 4J4 1 0 .6 8

l) r : gr t ' c s < -rIfrc e d o n r 4

5To 9.
lTo 1 3. 3

74 75
The "Flying Saucerrr Model

The irnportance of the problern dictated a second approach, should the


statistical results prove inconclusive. It was decided that an atternpt
would be rnade to describe the physical appearance, flight characteristics,
and other attributes (that is, construct a rnodel) of a class or classes of
"flying saucersr!.

Preparatory to this atternpt, a re-evaluation of the UNKNOWNS was


necessary. This re-evaluation was accornplished by a panel cornposed only
of persons previously associated with the work. Using all the UNKNOWNS
reports available
_- at ATIC, the panel rnade a careful study of the reports for
-ffiffiKNOWN SlCttftIGS in angle<f-sun<Ievation Groups I, Z, 3, 5, and
7 - those groups fior which the sun was either above the horizon or less than
l0' in elevation bdlow the horizon.

This study had two purposes. The first was to deterrnine, with
additional inforrnation such as the angle of elevation of the sun, how rnany
of the UNKNOWNS rnight be ascribed to known phenornena. The second was
to obtain those UNKNOWNS which were described in sufficient detail that
they rnight be used to construct a rnodel or rnodels of "flying saucerstr.

It was decided to put any of the UNKNOWNS which rnight be known


phenornena into a'rpossible KNOWN" category to denote the slightly lower
confidence level which could be ascribed to these new evaluations. The

TO
,UNKNOWNS*it\ p:"f{',.i.'tly g"*,i1" d d:', " ".'gti,"+It. b: d'' good
:i}}e
. UNKNOWNI', whilEffiE-E?ffiinder would sirn .
One hundred sixty-four folders of a total of 186 OBJECT SIGHTINGS in
Groups 1, Z, 3, 6, and 7 were exarnined. The:e were 18 possible aircraft,
20possi b1 e b a 1 loons,7goodUNK No wNS , l0 0 UNK No wNs @
ffid EFTEing posETSle KNOWNS of various types. It is
interesting to note that two of these were established as rnock suns on the
basis of the angle of sun elevation and the sun bearing angle, together with
the direction of the object frorn the observer. In addition, the UNKNOW NS
in angle-of-sun-elevation Groups 4 and 5 (nighttirne sightings) were scanned
with no atternpt at identification, but to find any possible rrgood UNKNOWNSTI
There were five sightings that could be put into this category.

e th w ere approxi rnatel Z0 sishtinss that were

l/{/
obser in such a wav that thev should have been recogni zed eas
had been farniliar objects, that is, there was little ssibility that lr
s ha as seenlcould have been distorted sufficientl one cause or
a render thern u There were a verv 1d
hav e bee n identified as guided rnissiles or rockets, but that w ere not so
ident if ied because of the geographical location in which they w ere seen.

A 11 o f th e re rn a i n i n g U N K N OW N S w ere cl assi fi ed as such sol el y be-


c aus e t he y w e re re p o rte d to have perforrned rnaneuvers that coul d not be
as c r ibed to a n y k n o w n o b j e c ts . In these cases, the shape rni ght have been
unr ec ogniz a b l e also, b u t i t w as fel t that thi s w as because of di storti on and
dis t anc e, o r b e c a u s e o f d a rk n ess.

T hi s i s a v e ry i rn p o rta n t poi nt. To put i t di fferentl y, i f these


UNK NO W N S , w h i c h re p re s e n t al l but about 40 of the U N K N OW N S IGH TIN GS
wer e r ep o rte d to h a v e p e rfo rrn e d rnaneuvers w hi ch coul d be ascri bed to
k nown ph e n o rn e n a , th e y w o u l d probabl y have been i denti fi ed as K N OW N S .
W it h t he e x c e p ti o n o f s o rn e ra dar si ghti ngs, al l of these rnaneuvers w ere
obs er v ed visually. T h e p o s s i bi l i ti es for i naccuraci es are great because
of t he ina b i l i ty o f a n o b s e rv e r to esti rnate vi sual l y si ze, di stance, and
s peed"

Rep o rts o f s i g h ti n g s b y radar usual l y w ere of hi gh-speed obj ects,


s or ne at e x tre rn e l y high a l ti tu d es. S orne w ere i denti fi ed as U N K N OW N S
bec aus e th e re w a s n o o b j e c t to be seen vi sual l y at the poi nt i ndi cated by t he
r adar s e t" It c a n n o t b e s a i d w i th any assurance w hat these radar si ghti ngs
r r t ean, bu t th e rn o s t l o g i c a l e xpl anati on i s that they are ground targets re -
f lec t ed b y a n a trn o s p h e ri c te rn perature i nversi on l ayer. The val i di ty of t his
s t at er nent c a n n o t b e e s ta b l i s h e d . It i s fel t that radar si ghti ngs i n thi s st udy
L
ar e of no s i g n i fi c a n c e w h a ts o e v " t
r s r naoe.

Taken in conjunction with the Chi Square Tests discussed earlier,


the resul ts of the re-evaluation of reports identified as UNKNOWN
SIGHTINGS would seerrl to indicate that the rnajority of thern could easily

77
have been farniliar objects. However, the resolution of this question with
any degree of certainty appears to be irnpossible.

Thus, out of the 434 OBJECT SIGHTINGS that were identified as.
UNKNOWNS by the data reduction process, there were only lZ thatwere
described with sufficient detail that they could be used in an atternpt to
derivearnode1@Thefo11owingisasurnInaryoftheIZ
g""d UNKNOWN StCnriNCS;
Ir
v
Case-I (Serial 0573. 00)

Two rnen ernployed by a rug-cleaning firrn were driving across a


bridge at 0955 hours or-rJuly 29, 1948, when they saw an object glide across
the road a few hundred feet in front of thern. It was shiny and rnetallic in
construction, about 6 to 8 feet lorg eldZ {u"t:ryid.. It was in a flat glide
path at an altitud" and in a rnoderate turn to the left. It was
"?T6liffi.t
s een f o r o n l y a fe w s e c o n d s and apparentl y w ent dow n i n a w ooded area,
although no trace of it was found.

6' to 8'

M 16;; r_,r.i,
l-l/2'x2'

These ore round cups which protrude


C as e-f
Case II (Serial 4508.00)

A naval aviation student, his wife, and several others were at a


drive-inrnoviefrornZlI5toZ24ohoutson@duringwhich
tirne they saw several groups of objects fly over. There were frorn two to
nine objects in a group and there were about 20 groups. The groups of

78
objec t s f le w i n a s tra i g h t line except for
sorne changes i n di recti on ,',
y'tit,,*-
ac c or nplis he d i n a rrra n n e r like any standard ai rcraft turn.
P{ r t'.i{'""
T he o b j e c ts w e re shaped l i ke conventi onal ai rcraft. The unaccount-
abte GElu-ie-iif in6 o"bj;;i;-;aJ'thit.ifach;"1iil;-;;;r;*-;;rrounding it and
was glowin g i ts e l f, a l th o u g h i t w as a cl oudl ess ni ght.

Li ght gl ow

C.aseT
^-

Case III (Serial 2013.00, 20L4.00, and 20f 4. 0t)

Two towel ogeratgrs sighted a light over a city airport at Z0ZO hours
125'l Sincd .o.rr.rrurcial plane was taking off at this
"%{i-Ju;;y2d', "
tirne, the pilots were asked to investigate this light. They observed it at
2026 hours . According to thern, it flew abreast of thern at a greater
radius as they rnade their clirnbing turn, during which time it blinked so1.ae
lights which looked like running lights. While the observing plane was still
in its clirnbing turn, the object rnade a turn toward the plane and flew
across
its nose. As the two rnen turned their heads to watch it, it instantly
appeared on their other side flying in the sarne direction as they were
flying, and then in z or 3 seconds it slipped under thern, and they did not
see it again. Tota1 tirne of the observation was not stated. In appearance,
it was like an airplandwith a cigar-shaped body and strarght wings, sorne-
what larger than a B-2,9. No engine nacelles were observed on the wings.

* E',.,,, )it htl r ''- i.1 C

79
&
r A' : ' ',1 a
(Jn e ltT €r ,e" jc.)
a'

Case IV (Serial 4599.00)

A part-tirne farrner and a hired hand were cu:ing tobacco at rnidnight


on July I9, 1952, when they looked up and saw twotigar-shaped objects.
O ne ho v e re d while th e o th e r rnoved to the east and carne back, at w hi ch
tinre both ascended until out of sight. Duration of observation was 3 to 4
rninutes. Both had an exhaust at one end, and neither had projections of any
kind. It was stated that they appeared to be transparent and illurninated
frorn the inside.

Exhoust

l
Ces e I f ,) ! :, ,
* fi" ll,l lit> O o . 'r ;
/r- I tl /s Tn{. pttlut( 0t ont o _ -h(
J, I
':-l
! t' { .- ]i *vrr a.' i li,e / cit oi 1", ,,:6{f L n lo n , o:
f
:- J o E : . , o j s f " cr , ' f r ' ' ; r
r: ,._ 0h '* ,1ffi a.7
ho1,, a.cl
o i : l " c j ,i 80
l/
Case V (Serial 0565.0 0 to 0565 . 0 3 )

A pilot and copilot were flying a DC -3 at 0340 hours on JuIaZ4, 1948,


whentheysawanobjectcorningtowardthern.Itpassedt"tffi
slightly above thern, at which time it went rmto 4__eltegllclimb and was lost
frorn sight in sorne clouds. Potrt
seconds. One passenger was able to catch a flash of light as the object
passed. The object seerned powered by rocket or jet rnotors shooting a
trail of fire sorne 50 feet to the rear of the object. The object had no wings
or other protrusion and had two rows of lighted windows.

P ilor

Casef Windowswith
w hi i e l i ghr

C opi l or

8l
{r"
Case Vt (SeriaL 48ZZ.0O)

An instrurnent technician, while driving frorn a Large city toward an


Air Force base on Decernbet 22, 1952, saw an object frorn his car at 1930
hours. He stoppeffit suddenly rnoved up toward the
zenith in spurts frorn right to left atan angle of about 45". It then rnoved
off in level flight at a high rate of speed, during which rnaneuver it appeared
white rnost of the tirne, but apparently rolled three tirnes showing a red
side. About halfway througb its ro11 it showed no light at all. It finally
assurned a position to the south of the planet Jupiter at a high altitude' at
which position it darted back and forth, left and right alternately. Total
tirne of the observation was 15 rninutes. Apparently, the observer just
stopped watching the objeff-

oFFrcEoF rr{tr,onMarrolt
*L igrfrnfornation
#:il: Dj.vjsion

*F,kt,irur"t*i^7,1m

\
I
I
Cas c f Deep red

82
A Flight sergeant saw an object over an
Air Force base in Korea at
o84z hours o" Jryjr-s.l3. The object flew in a series of spiinning
turnbling actiSi?. and
rt *"ir.r an erratic course, first frying lever,
stopping rnornentarily, then
shooting straight up, flying lever and
again turnbling,
then changing course and disaplearing
into the sun. rt reappeared and was
seen flying back and forth across the
sun. At one time an F-g5 passed
between the observer and the object.
He pointed it out to another rnan who
saw it as it maneuvered near th.
"orr.

Rotoii , n\

\
\
I
/

Block lines evenly spoced


Proportion7 to I

(D i mensi onsore os

C as eW show n i n observer' s
ori gi nol drow i ng)
C ase vUt (S eria1 0 5 7 6 .00)

An electrician was standing by the bathroorn window of his horne,


facing west, OSZS_H""r.I J"ly hen he first sighted an object.
"t "t Total
He ran to his kitchen where he pointed out the object to his wife.
tirne in sight was approxirnately l0 seconds, during which the object flew
on a straight and level course frorn horizon to horizon, west to east.

Case Wt
(Rotio opprox. 3:l)

84
Cas e (Serial 0066.00)

A farrner and his two sons, aged 8 and 10, were at his {ishing carrrp
olAugugt I3, 1947: At about I300 hours, he went to look for the boys,
having sent thern to the river for sorne tape frorn his boat. He noticed an
object sorne 3.00 fget gwa_y, 75 _feet above tle grouqd. He saw it against
the background o-f the canygn walt which was 400 {e9t hfg]1 at this point. It
was hedge hopping, following the contour of the ground, was sky blue,
about ZA f.eet in diarneter and 10 feet thick, and had pods on the side frorn
which flarnes were shooti.ng out. It rnade a swishing sound. The observer
stated that the trees were highly agitated by the craft as it passed over.
His two sons also observed the object. No one saw the object for rnore
than a few seconds.

Side view

r -f--
LasL IL

End view

85
Cas e X (S e ri a l 1 I1 9 . 0 0 )

Ane rn p l o y e e i n th e s u personi c l aboratory of an aeronauti cal l ab-


or at or y a n d s o rn e o th e r e rn pl oyees of thi s l ab, w ere by a ri ver, Z-l /Z
r niles fro rn i ts rn o u th , w h e n they saw an obj ect. The ti rne w as about I 700
hour s o n Ma y 2 4 , 1 9 4 9 . .T h e obj ect w as refl ecti ng sunl i .ght w he,n obser ved
by nak e d " " y .. H o w e v e r, h e then l ooked at i t w i th B -pow er bi nocul ars, at
whic h ti rn e th e re w a s n o g l are. (D i d gl asses have fi l ter?) It w as of
r net alli c c o n s tru c ti o n a n d w as seen w i th good enough resol uti on to show
t hat t h e s k i n w a s d i rty . It rnoved off i n hori zontal fl i ght at a gradual l y in-
c r eas in g ra te o f s p e e d , u n til i t seerned to approach the speed of a j et
bef or e i t d i s a p p e a re d . N o propul si on w as apparent. Ti rne of observation
w..1sZ- tf Z to 3 rnin u tes.
"

Tt?
L- as e A Something equivolent
to o polch Smoother in
fronf

Ro ugh ond wr ink led ce oppeored dirty


in r eor ond spotty in color

86
Case XI (Serial 1550.00)

On March ?O, 1950_l a Reserve Air Force Captain and an airlines


Captain were flying a cornrnercial airlines flight. A,t ZL:.26, the airline
Captain directed the attention of the Reserve Air Force Captain to an objec t
which apparently was flying at high speed, approaching the airliner frorn
the south on a nol:th heading. The Reserve Air Force Captain focused his
attention on the object. Both crew rnernbers watched it as it passed in front
of thern and went out of sight to the right. The observation, which Iasted
about 25 to 35 seconds, occurred about I5 rniles north of a rnediurn-sized
city. When the object passed in front of the air).iner, it was not rnore than
Z rntte dlstant and at an altitude of about I000 feet higher than the airliner.
.t,f
The object appeared to be circular, with a diarneter of approxirnately
100 feet and with a vertical height considerably less than the diarneter,
giving the object a disc-like shape. In the top center was a light which was
blinking at an estirnated 3 flashes per second. ,l!1" light wag, so brilliant
that it would have been irnpossible to look at i! 9onllnqously."had i.3 not been
"biinking. .,
. _...:...
This light coutd'be'lein only when the object was approaching
and after it had passed the airliner. When the object passed in front of the
observers, the bottorn side was visible. Ihe bottorn side appeared to have
9 to IZ syrnrnetrical oval or cj.rcular portholes trocated in a circle approxi-
rnately l/+ of the distance frorn the center to the outer edge. Through these
portholes carrre a soft purple tight about the shade of aircraft fluorescent
lights. The object was traveling in a straight line without spinning.
".Con- .
sidering tle visibility, the length of tirne the object was in sight, and the
,
=distance fryorn the object, the Reserve Air Force Captain estirnates the
-speed
to be in excess of l00O rnph

87
Ca,se-
W

Portholes
Case XII (Serial 3601.00)

At 0535 on the rnorning of August 25, L952, a rnusician for a radio


stationwasdrivingtoworkf'offinoticedanobject
hovering about l0 feet above a field near the road aLong which he was
driving. As he carne abreast of the object, he stopped his car and got out
to watch. Having an artificial leg, he could not leave the road, since the
surrounding terrain was rough. However, he was within about 100 yards
of it at the point he was standing on the road. The object was not absolutely
still, but seerned to rock slightly as it hovered. When he turned off the
rnotor of his car, he could hear a deep throbbing sound coming frorn the
object. As he got out of the c-ar, the object began a vertical ascent with a
sound sirnilar torra large covey of quail starting to fly at one tirnert. The
object ascended vertically through broken clouds until out of sight. His
view was not obscured by clouds. The observer states that the vegetation
was blown about by the object when it was near the ground.

Description of the object is as follows:

It was about 75 feet long, 45 f.eeI wide, and l5 feet thick, shaped like
two oval rneat platters placed together. It was a dull alurninurn color, and
had a srnooth surface. A rnediurn$lue continuous light shone through the
o ne window i n th e fro n t s e c ti o n . The head a
r not ionles s , fa c i n s th e fo rw a rd edqe of the obi ect, w ere vi si bl e. In the
rnidsection of the object were several windows extendingTftffi-the top to the
r ear edge o f th e o b j e c t; th e rn i d secti on of the shi p had a bl ue l i ght w hi ch
gr adually c h a n g e d to d i ffe re n t s hades. There w as a l arge arnount of acti vi ty
and r nov er ne n t i n th e rn i d s e c ti o n that coul d not be i denti fi ed as ei ther hurnan
o r r nec hanic a l , a l th o u g h i t d i d n ot have a regul ar pattern of rnovernent.
T her e wer e n o w i n d o w s , d o o rs or porthol es, vents, searrrs, etc-, vi si bl e
t o t he obs er v e r i n th e re a r s e c ti o n of the obj ect or under the obj ect (vi ew ed
at t ir ne of a s c e n t). A n o th e r i d e nti fi abl e feature w as a seri es of prope.l l ers
6 t o l2 inc h e s i n d i a rn e te r s p a c e d cl osel y together al ong the outer edge of
the objec t . These p ro p e l l e rs w e re rnounted on a bracket so that they
r ev olv ed in a h o ri z o n ta l p l a n e a l ong the edge of the obj ect. The propel l ers
w er e r ev olv i n g a t a h i g h ra te o f speed.

I nv e s i o n o f th e a re a soon afterw ard show ed sorrre evi dence of


v es et at ion b e i n s b l o w n a ro u n d . A n exarni nati on of grass and soi l sarnpl es
----_
tak en indic a te d n o th i n g unusual. R el i abi l i ty of the observer w as consi dered
good.
-f-

B9
Approximorely
75' long

Case,ffi
These IZ sightings can be classed into four categories on the basis of
their shapes, as follows:

(1) Propeller shape - Case I

(Z) Aircraft shape - Cases II and III

(:) Cigar shape - Cases IV and V

(4) Elliptical or disc shape - Cases VI to XII

The criterion for choosing the above sightings was that their descrip-
tions were given in enough detail to perrnit diagrarns of the objects to be
drawn. It rnight be noted here that in all but one of these cases (Case XI)
the observer had already drawn a diagrarn of what he had seen.

The objective of this section of the study was the conceiving of a


rnodel, or rnodels. The requirernent that the description be detailed is an
irnportant one, and was the easiest to deterrnine in the re-evaluation pro-
grarrr. However, a good rnodel ought to satisfy the following conditions as
we ll:

(l) The general shape of the object and the rnaneuvers it


perforrned should fit the reports of rnany of the UNKNOWNS
and thus explain therri.

(Z) The observer and the report should be reliable.

(3) The report should contain elernents which should have


been cbserved with accuracy, and which elirninate the
possibility that the sighting could be ascribed to a
farniliar object or to a known natural phenornenon.

(4) The rnodel should be derived frorn two or rnore good


UNKNOWNS between which there is no essenti al confl i ct.

It can be shown that it is not possible to deduce a rnodel frorn the lZ


cases that will satisfy all of these conditions. The following case-by-case
discussion of the l2 good UNKNOWNS will illustrate this point:

(l) case I does not satisfy conditions I and 4. The reported


shape of this object is not duplicated in any of the other
UNKNOWNS -

(2) Case II does not satisfy Conditions I and 3. There are


v ery few UNKNOWNS in the aircraft shape classification.
In addition, the unusual characteristic of this sighting
(i..., the red glow) could have been reflection of the
li ghts of Flint frorn the objects if they were either birds
or aircraft.
9l
(3) Case III does not satisfy Condition l. It also does not
satisfy condition 4 when case II is elirninated as a
good UNKNOWN.

(4) Case IV does not satisfy Conditions I or Z. There are


few cigar-shaped or rocket-shaped objects reported in
the literature. In addition, this observer is not con-
sidered to be well-qualified technically'

(5) Case V does not satisfy Condition I. It also does not


satisfy condition 4 when case IV is elirninated as a
good UNKNOWN.

It rnight be argued here that rrrany of the UNKNOWNS rnight actually


have shapes similar to these good UNKNOWNS. It will be noted, however,
condi-
that each of these five cases does not satisfy one of the other three
tions.

(6) Case VI does not satisfy Condition Z. In the description'


of the object, it was stated that at certain tirnes there
was no light seen frorn the object. Apparently, the
ilband of no light'r, as diagrarnrned by the observer, was
an atternpt to explain this. However, if the object were
constructed as shown in the diagrarn, light should have
been seen at all tirnes. Because of this conflict the
drawing is not considered reliable, and without the draw-
ing, there is not enough detail in the description to rnake
it useful for this studY.

(?) Case VII violates Conditions I and 4. Although the shape


is disc-like, the rnaneuvers perforrned by the object are
unique both arnong the UNKNOWNS and arrlong the good
UNKNOWNS.

cases vIII to XII satisfy Conditions I through 3, but they do not


satisfy Condition 4. The features which rnake thern different frorn each
other are as follows:

(8) Case VIII. The object is srnooth, with no protrusions


or other details.

(9) case IX. The object had rocket or jet pods on each
side that were shooting out flarnes.

( I0) Case X . The object had a fi n or rudder.

(lI) Case XI. The object had a series of portholes, or


windows. on its under side.

9Z
(lZ) Case XII. The object had windows 1n its top and front
and its top rnidsection. It also had a set of propellers
around its waist.

9J 3,.jlllying
**-f:"*9el--P-e"-s's"i.hle*"*rh^s-&e"{or"ea-J.e"$-9.,5*fi"-e.""?--.-v-*if-i.-e..d-.m.,o-d"q1-
'irn:'
This point
*_g9_R*-.c*n**J#"aar^th.",e_-_d".+l+"*t"h?"!"".h*y,e-.'been.ge,$_ef""_eA"tg.d_elg-. is
portant enough to ernphasize. Out of about 4,000 people who said they saw
a !rflying saucerrr, sufficiently detailed descriptions were given in only I Z
cases. Having culled the crearn of the crop, it is still irnpossible to develop
a picture of what a rrflying saucerrr is.

In addition to this study of the good UNKNOWNS, an atternpt was rnade


to find groups of UNKNOWNS for which the observed characteristics were
the sarne. No such groups were found.

On the basis of this evidence, therefore, there is a low probability


that any of the UNKNOWNS represent qLs€ryaH"gItS*_e*{_""*gJeS"""*,"91*:*Xi"*S
saucersrr. It rnay be that sorne teports represent observations of not-.one
ffii*L"'['.ile.al classes of objects that rnight have been I'flying saucersrr;
, however, the lack of evidence to confirrn even one class would seern to rnake
.[
.nIF 1
this possibility rernote. jl5g"_i.::lS_g_."g.*.!._-tt''**1.F."9*T*e*e[Jb.,__"sgep,p*,eJ_F_-N
T ^[ttV "?e."h.r*?"e*.r.e,.e-F.*"*"*x"".ei*t}e---.le*s+,.*.F*
{","-Uy-
.' .' *b-grsrg*-'-*$$99'?J"i-?,k*-.*np*grs*a. 7 4
jit$. -ggt-d*UNKN9-#*NS***u4-,.*"ur"fas'.".s,.9.*gj.e"-v,S..p-"".e-.,E.s-*"L*--q.".sd..r.s"
q.sf"gf_-"-a I

UNKNOWNS had it not been possible to establish their identity.

I +rS
This is, of course, contrary to the bulk of the publicity that has been
nred"|j"n '
given to this problern. The reason for the nature of this publicity was
'' +4pil-
liln.;'- clearly brought out during the re-evaluation study. It is a definite fact that
dtf uPon reading a few reports, the reader becornes convinced that
"flying
saucersrrare real and are sotrre forrn of sinister contrivance. This reaction
is independent of the training of the reader or of his attitude toward the
problern prior to the initial contact. It is unfortunate that practically all of
the articles, books, and news stories dealing with the phenornenon of the
rrflying saucerrr were written by rnen
who were in this category, that is,
rnen who had read only a few selected reports. This is accentuated by the
fact that, as a rule, only the rnore lurid-sounding reports are cited in these
publications- *[9-a.q;-t**gj"{gr.-lbrs---9€m**9-.-q*"p-g-ys,tr-gl9d.if.gtis.*."qs-t*.-y.-,"1e,,
*g*qr**sgAx,lhs__ll*y.:_t9"*"o*.1_l._i!*.Lp*_p__o".::_1.9]_9.".-1h*"j'
*_".J_"*e*hle.$_.e!*!"t'i:"_l_q**j..9-
xe*".q-s:::-l:
r!lls;t,d@l

J The reaction, rnentioned above, that after reading a few reports, the ]
J i
fI reader is convinced thatttflying saucersrrare real and are sorne forrn of I
sinister contrivancer is very rnisleading. As rnore and rnore of the reports fI
are read, the feeling thatItsaucersttare real fades, and is replaced by a t
feeling of skepticisrn regarding their existeuce. The reader eventually I
reaches a pg_int of satu-13j*|gt, after which the reports contain no new infor-
rnation of any intere"t.
I
"t arnong
"fi*""ild1;;;"6&"" *LH.:.f*.gl_i"_+_g.gt;y^T-{_g_lly*,I
universal the per-s--q4rn,gl
who worked on this riiojeit, a.ra ib"fi",i"*ifv !
I

:*i;.;"itai"ed;-c";,-,,iioo;;i;;; on'ttJir:p;';r*t;;;i;t.i;il';;it-:-::"--::^-*:''

93
CONC LUSIONS

It can never be absolutely proven that ttflying saucersrrdo not exist.


This would be true if the data obtained were to include cornplete scientific
lneasurerrlents of the attributes of each sighting, as well as cornplete and
detailed descriptions of the objects sighted. It rnight be possible to dernon-
strate the existence of "flying saucersrrwith data of this type, IF they were
to exist.

Although the reports considered in this study usually did not contain
scientific rneasurernents of the attributes of each sighting, it was possible
to establish certain valid conclusions by the application of statistical
rnethods in the treatrnent of the data. Scientifically evaluated and arranged,
the data as a whole did not show any rnarked patterns or trends. The in-
accuracies inherent in this type of data. in addition to the incornpleteness of
a large proportion of the reportsr may have obscured any patterns or trends
that otherwise would have been evident. This absence of indicative relation-
ships necessitated an exhaustive study of selected facets of the data in order
to draw any valid conclusions.

A critical exarnination of the distributions of the irnportant char-


acteristics of sightings, plus an intensive study of the sightings evaluated
as UNKNOWN, Ied to the conclusion that a cornbination of factors, prin-
cipalty the reported rnaneuvelrs of the objects and the unavailability of
supplernental data such as aircraft flight plans or balloon-launching records,
resulted in the failure to identify as KNOWNS rnost of the reports of objects
classified as UNKNOWNS.

i n te n s i v e
An s tu d y , a i rn e d at fi ndi ng a veri fi ed exarnpl e of arrfl yi ng
s auc er l' o r a t d e ri v i n g a v e ri fi ed rnodel or rnodel s of ' tfl yi ng saucers" (a s
def ined o n Pa g e l ), l e d to th e concl usi on that nei ther goal coul d be attai n ed
us ing t he p re s e n t d a ta .

I t i s e rn p h a s i z e d th a t th e re w as a cornpl ete l ack of any val i d evi dence


c ons is t ing of physical rn a tte r i n any case of a reported uni denti fi ed aeri a l
objec t .

T hu s , th e p ro b a b i l i ty th at any of the U N K N OW N S consi dered i n this


s t udy ar e ' tfl y i n g s a u c e rs rr i s concl uded to be extrernel y srnal l , si nce the
r nos t c or n p l e te a n d re l i a b l e reports frorn the present data, w hen i sol ated
and s t udie d , conclusively fa i l ed to reveal even a rough rnodel , and si nce
t he dat a a s a w h o l e fa i l e d to reveal any rnarked patterns or trends.

T he re fo re , o n th e b a s i s of thi s eval uati on of the i nforrnati on, it is


c ons ider ed to b e h i g h l y i rn p ro babl e that any of the reports of uni denti fi ed
aer ial ob j e c ts e x a rn i n e d i n th i s study represent observati ons of technol ogi-
c al dev elo p rn e n ts o u ts i d e th e range of present-day sci enti fi c know l edge.

94
DIS TRIB UTIONS B Y CHA RA CT E RI S T I CS
69
INDEX OF TABLES

Page

by Year s 107
Table A I . E va l uation of All Sightings

by Year s 107
Table AZ. E va l uation of Unit Sightings

108
T a b l e A 3. E va l uation of Object Sightings by Year s

o f Year , Al l Year s 109


T ab l e A 4 . E va l uation of A11 Sightings by M onth '

T a b l e A 5, E va l uation of Al1 Sightings by M onth of Yeat, L947

1948 III
T a b l e A 6. E va l uation of All Sightings by M onth of Year ,

by Month of. Y ear, L949


Lr z
T ab l e A 7, Evaluation of All Sightings

o{ Atl Sightings by M onth of Year , I950 II3


T ab l e A 8, E val uation

by M onth of Year ' I95l tt4


T ab l e .A 9 . E val uation of AU Sightings

by Mouth of \ ear, L .45? ll 5


T a b l e A I0 . Evaluation of All Sightings

by Month ol Year, All Yeals rl6


T a b l e A I I. Evaluation of Unit Sightings

Sightings by Month of. Year, L947 . II7


T ab l e A l Z . Evaluatim of Unit

by M onth oI Year , 1948 . I l8


T ab l e A I3 . E valuation of Unit Sightings

T ab l e A 14, Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Y eat , 1949 . rl 9

T ab l e A I5. E va luation of Unit Sightings by M onth of Year , I950 . LZ0

A16. E va luation of Unit Sightings by M onth of Year ' I95l . tz l


T ab l e

Table A l ?. E valuation of Unit Sightings by M onth of Year , 1952 tz2

Table A l 8. E valuation of Object Sightings by M onth of Year , Al l Year s tz3

of Object Sightings by M onth of Year , I94? l Z4


T a b l e A I9 . E valuation

E valuation of Object Sightings by M onth of Year , 1948 l Z5


Table A20.

of Object Sightings by M onth of Year , 1949 126


T a b l e A 2 I. E valuation

T ab l e A Z 2 . E valuation of Object Sightings by M onth of Year ; 1950 l Z7

T ab l e A 2 3 . E valuati.on of Object Sightings by M ont h of Year , l 95l tz8

T ab l e A 24 . E valuation o{ Object Sightings by M onth ol '{ear , L95Z L Zg

T ab l e A 25 . E valuation of All Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr ouPs ' A1I Year s I30

T ab l e A 26 . E valuation of All Sightings by Sighti.ng R el i abi l i ty Gr oups , 1947 130

T ab l e 427. E valuation of A1I Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr ouPs ' 1948 130

T ab l e A 28 . E valuation o{ All Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr oups , 1949 I30

Table A29. E valuation of All Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr oups , 1950 . l3l

Table A30. E valuation of AII Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr oups , 1951 l3l

T a b l e A 3I. E valuation of AII Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr oups , 1952 . l3l

Table 43 2 , E valuation oI Unit Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr oups , Al l Year s . 132

Table A33. E valuation of Unit Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr oups , 1947 . l3Z

95 and 96 97
INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)

Page

T a b l e A 34 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1948 . I3Z

T a b l e A 35 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groupe, 1949 . L3Z

T ab l e A 3 6 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1950 . 133

T ab l e A 3 ? . Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Retiability Groupe, l95l . 133

T a b l e A 38 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groupsr 1952 . 133

T a b l e A 39 . Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Rcliability Groups, All Years 134

T ab l e A 40 . Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groupsr 194? . 134

T ab l e A 4 l . Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1948 . 134

T ab l e A 4 2 , Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1949 . 134

T ab l e A 43 . Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1950 . 135

T ab l e A 4 4 . Evaluation of Object Sightings by Si ghti ng R el i abi l i ty Gr ougs , l 95I . 135

T ab l e A 4 5 . Evaluation of Object Sigbtings by Si ghti ng R el i abi l i ty Gr oupa, 1952 . 135

T ab l e A 4 6 . Evaluatioo of AII Sightings for AII Years by Sighting Reliability Groups,


M ilitar y Obser ver s 136

T ab l e A 4 7 . Evaluation of A11 Sightings for AII Years by Sighting Reliability Groupir,


Civiliau Obser ver s I JO

Table A48. Evaluation of All Sighti


M ilitar y Obser ver s :r".t":':ot.or.tt:o.':r.*":*:"t:" :'":n:' . r36

T ab l e A 4 9 . Evaluation of AII Sighti ngs for 194? by Sigbting Reliability Groups,


Civilian Obser ver s

T ab l e A 50 . Evaluatiou of AII Sightings for 1948 by Si ghti ng R el i abi l i ty Gr oups ,


M ilitar y Obser ver s I3?

T ab l e A 5 l . Evaluation of All Sightings for 1948 by Sighting Reliability Groups,


Civilian Obser ver s

T ab l e A 52 . Evaluation of AII Sightings tot L949 by Si ghti ng R el i abi l i ty Gr oups ,


M ilitar y Obser ver s t37

T ab l e A 53 . Evaluation of All Sightings for 1949 by Sighting Reliability Groups,


Civilian Obser ver s

Table A54. Evaluation of All Sigtrtings for I950 by Sighting Reliability croups,
M ititar y Obser ver s 138

T ab l e A 5 5 . Evaluation of A1l Sightings for 1950 by Sighting Reliability Groups,


Civilian Obser ver s

T ab l e A 5 6 . Evaluation o{ AII Sightings for 195l by Si ghti ng R el i abi l i ty Gr oups ,


M ilitar y Obser ver s 138

T ab l e A 5 ? . Evaluation of AII Sightings for l95l by Sighting Reliability croups,


Civilian Obser ver s

T ab l e A 58 . Evaluation of All Sightings for l 95Z by Si ghti ng R el i abi l i ty Gr oups ,


M ilitar y Obser ver s 139

98
1l
T N D EX OF . T ABLES
( C onti nued)

Page

T ab te A 5 9 . E va l uation of A11 Sightings for 1952 by Si ghti ng R el i abi l i ty Gr oups ,


I ao
C i vilian Obser ver s

T ab l e A 6 0 . R e p or ted Color s of Objects Sighted by Year s , Al l Si ghti ngs 140

T ab l e A 6l . R ep or ted Color s of Objects Sighted by Year s , U ni t Si ghti ngs 140

T ab l e A 5 2 . R ep or ted Color s of Objects Sighted by Year s , Obj ec t Si ghti ngs 140

T ab l e A 6 3 . E va l uation of Ali Sightings for All Year s by C ol or s R epor ted t41

T ab l e A 54 . E va l uation of Unit Sightings for All Ye ar s by C ol or s R epor ted L42

T ab l e A 55 . E va l uation oI Object Sightings for All Year s by C ol or s R epor ted . . 143

T a b l e 4'66 . E va l uation of AU Sightings foq All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
On e Object t44

T a b l e A 67 . E val uation of All Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
T wo Objects . . 144

Table A68. E va l uation of AII Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
T hr ee to Ten Objects . . 145

Table A 59 . E va l uation of A1I Sightings for All Yea r s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
E l even or M or e Objects . 145

Table A?0. E va l uation of All Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
N u m ber of Objects Not Stated . . t46

Table A7l. E va l uation of Unit Sightings for AII Ye ar s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
On e Object 147

Table A72. E val uation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
T w o Objects . . 141

T ab l e A73. E va l uation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
T h r ee to Ten Objects . . I48

T ab l e A 7 4 . E va l uation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
E l even or M or e Objects . . t48

Table A75. E va l uation of.Unit Sightings for All Ye ar s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
N um ber of Objects Not Stated . . t49

T a b l e A 76 . E val uation of object sightings for AII y ear s by N um ber of obj ec ts per s i ghti ng,
O ne Object 150

Table A77. E va l uation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghtr ng,
T w o Objects . .

T a b l e A 78 . 'E val uation of Object Sightings for Al1 Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghtr ng,
T h r ee to Ten Objects . .

T ab l e'A 79 . E va l uation of Object Sightings for All y ear s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghtr ng,
E l even or M or e Qbjects . .

T ab l e A 8 0 . E val uation of Object Sightings for All y ear s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
N u m ber o( Objects Not Stated . . t5z
Tab l e A 8 l . Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, ALl Year s . . 153

Tab l e A 8 Z . E va l uation of All Sightings by Dur ation o{ Si ghti ng, r947 t53

99
7L
IN D EX OF T ABLES
(C ontinued)

Page

1948 t54
T ab l e A 8 3 . Evaluation of Al1 Sightings by Dur ati on of Si ghti ng,

t54
T a b l e A 84 . Evaluation of AII Sightlngs by Dur ati on of Si ghti ng, 1949

I950 I55
Table A85, Evaluation of AU Sightings by Dur ati on o{ Si ghti ng'

of Si ghti ng, l 95I


r55
T a b l e .A '8 6 . Evaluation of All Sightings by Dur ati on

rto
T a b l e A 8? , Evaluation of AIt Sightings by Dur ati on of Si ghti ng, I95Z

of Si Shti ng' Al l Year s t57


T ab l e A 8 8 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Dur ati on

Ig47 L57
T ab l e A 8 9 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Dur ati on of Si ghti ng, '

Ig48 158
Table A90. Evaluation of Unit Sightlngs by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng, '

1949 I58
T a b l e A 9l . Evaluation of Unit Sightings by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng, '

by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng, f950 r59


Table 492. Evaluation of Unit Sightings

by Dur ati on of Si ghti ng' I95I t5 9


T ab l e A 9 3 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings

by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng' I952 r50


T ab l e A 9 4 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings '

Al l Year s l6l
T ab l e A '9 5 . Evaluation of Object Sightings by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng' ' '

194? 161
Table ,{9 6 . Evaluation o{ Object Sightings by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng,

1948 f6Z
T ab l e A 9 7 . Evaluation of Object Sightings by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng,

of Si ghti ng, 1949 16Z


T ab l e A 9 8 . Evaluation of Object Sightings by D ur ati on

lb J
Table A99. Evaluation of Object Sightings by D ur .ati on of Si ghti ng' 1950

of Object Sightings b y D ur ati on of Si ghti ngs ' I95l 163


T a b l e A I 0 0. Evaluation

of Object Sightings b y D ur ati on of Si ghti ng, I952 154


T ab l e A I0 l . Evaluation

T ab l e Ai02. Evaluation of A11 Sightings for Al l Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
o{ Year , Five Seconds or Less . .

T ab l e A I0 3 . Evaluation of AII Sightings for Al l Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths


o{ Year , Six to Ten Seconds . .

T ab l e d l 04 . Evaluation of A11 Sightings for Al l Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng {or M onths


of Year , Eleven to Tbi.r tY Sec onds . 167

T a b l e A I0 5 . Evaluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Thir ty One to Sixty S ec onds 168

T a b l e A tO 5. Evaluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Sixty One Seconds to F i v e M i nutes . . 169

T ab l e A 1 0 ? . Evaluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Six to Thir ty M inutes t70

Table A108. Evaluation of All Sightings for Al l Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Over Thir ty M inutes

T ab l e A 10 9 . Evaluation of AII Sightings for Al l Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths


of Year , Dur ation Not Stated . . t72

r 00
I INDEX OF TABLES
(C ontinued)

j less
i fa b l e A l I0 . E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s , by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Five Seconds or Less . . L73

T a b l e A l l I. E valuation of Unit Sightings { or Al1 Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti r \g {or M onths


: of Year , Six to Ten Seconds 174

T a b l e A l IZ . E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
o{ Year , Eleven to Thir ty Seconds 175

T ab l e A l l 3, E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on bf Si ghti ng for M onths
o{ Year , Thir ty One to Sixiy Secon ds

T ab l e A l 14 , E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Sixty One Seconds to Five M i nutes . ,

T ab l e A Il 5. E v aluation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Six to Thir ty M inutes 178

T ab l e A II6 . E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Over Thir ty M inutes l ?9

T ab l e All7. E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Dur ation Not Stated . .

Table A l 18 . E valuation of Object Sightings for A11 Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Five Seconds or Less

T ab l e A l l 9. E valuation o{ Object Sightings for Al l Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng {or M ouths


of Year . Six to Ten Seconds . . L8Z

T ab te A 1 2 0 . E v aluation of Object Sightings for A 11 Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths


of Year , Eleven to Tbir ty Seconds . I83

T ab l e A l Z l . E valuation of Object Sightings for Al l Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M ontbs


of Year , Thir ty One to Sixty Secon ds 184

T ab l e A 1 2 2 . E v aluation of Object Sightings for Al l Year s by D ur ati oo of Si ghti ng for M onths


of Year , Sixty One Seconds to Five M i nutes . .

Tabie A 12 3 . E valuation of Object Sightings for A11 Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year , Six to Thir ty M inutes 186

T ab l e A I24 . E valuation of Object Sightings for A l l Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Over Thir ty M inutes lo a

T ab l e A l 25 , E valuation of Object Sightings for A l l Year s by D ur ati oo of Si ghti ng for M onths


of Year , Dur ation Not Stated . . r88

Table AlZ6. Evaluation of All Sightings for A1l Years by Shape o{ Qbject, Elliptical 189

Table AlZ7. Evaluation of AII Sightings for A11 Years by Shape of Object' Rocket and Aircra{t r89

T a b l e A 12 8 . E v aluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t' M eteor or C om et r90

Table AlZ9. E valuation of All Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t' Lenti c ul ar , C oni c al ,
or Tear dr op 190

Table A I 30. Evaluation of A1l Sightings for A11 Years by Shape of Object, Flame l9l

T ab l e A l 3I, Evaluation of AII Sightings for AII Years by Shape of Object, Other Shapes t9l

T ab l e A 1 3 2 . E valuation of A11 Sightings for All Y ear s by Shape of Obj ec t, Shape N ot Stated L9Z

l0I
7+ INDEX OF TABLES
(G ontinued)

P age

A133. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al l Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, El l i pti c al . 193
Table -
I

Table A I 34 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al l Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, R oc k et and Ai r c r aft

lqa
T ab l e A135. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, M eteor or C om et

T ab te A 1 3 6 . Evaluation of Uait Sightings for AIl Year s by Shape of Obj ec t' Lenti c ul ar ,
Conical, or Tear dr op t94

F l am e L"
T ab l e A 13 7 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al 1 Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, .

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al l Year s by Shape of Obj ec t' Other Shapes . . to(
Table A I 38.

'r'a b l e 4 1 3 9 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, Shape N ot Stated 195

T ab l e A 14 0 . Evaluation of Object Sightings for A11 Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, El l i Pti c al . . I97

T ab l e A 1 4 l . Evaluation of Object Sightings for Al l Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, R oc k et and Ai r c r aft r97

T ab l e A 1 4 2. Evaluation of Object Sightings f or Al l Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, M eteor or C om et 198

T a b l e A I43 . Evaluation of Object Sightings f or A11 Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, Lenti c ul ar '
Conical, or Tear dr op r98

T a b l e A 14 4. Evaluation of Object Sightings f or Al l Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, F l am e r99

Tabie A I4 5 . Evaluation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, Other Shapes r99

Table A 14 6. Evaluation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, Shape N ot Stated 200

T ab l e A I4 7 . Evaluation of A11 Sightings for Al l Year s by R epor ted s peeds of obj ec ts , s tati onar y , . z 0l

Table A148. Evaluation of AII Sightir igs for AII Year s by R ePor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts r Les s
Than One Hundr ed M iles Per H our .
z 0l

T ab te A 14 9 . Evaluation of All sightings for A11 Year s by R epor ted s peeds of Qbj ec ts , one
Hundr ed to Four Hundr ed M iles per H our
zoz

T ab Ie A 15 0 . Evaluation of AU Sightings for AII Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts , Ov er


Four Hundr ed M iles per Hour
zoz

T ab l e A I5 I. Evaluation of AII Sightings for AII Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts '
Speeds .
203
M eteor - Like

T ab l e A 15 2 . Evaluation of AII sightings Ior AII Year s by R ePor ted s peeds of obj ec ts '
203
Speed Not Stated .

sightings for Al l Year s by R epor ted s peeds of obj ec ts , s tati onar y . . 204
T a b l e A I5 3 , Evaluation of unit

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by R epor ted Speede of Obj ec ts , Les s T han
T ab l e A 1 5 4 .
zo4
One Hundr ed M iles per Hour .

Evaluation of unit sightings for AIl Year s by R epor ted s peeds of obj ec ts , one H undr ed
T ab l e A I5 5 .
z o5
to Four Hundr ed M iles Per H our

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for A11 Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts , Ov er
T ab l e A I5 5 .
z o5
Four Hundr ed M iles Per Hour

Table A l 5? . Evaluation of Unit Sigtr tings for Al l Year s by R ePor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts t
Speeds .
206
M eteor - Like

T a b l e A I58 . Evaluation of Uuit Sightings { or Al l Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts ,


206
Speed Not Stated .

roz
INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)

Page

A 15 9 . E v aluation of Object Sightings Ior AII Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts ' Stati onar y z o' 7
T ab l e

T ab l e A 1 6 0 . E v aluation of Object Sightings for A 11 Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts ' Les s
Than One Hundr ed M iles Per Hour . z o7

T ab l e A I6 l , E levation of Object Sightings { or Al} Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts , One.
to Four Hundr ed M iles pe r H our .
208
Hundr ed

T ab l e A I6 2 . E v aluation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts , Ov er
Four Hundr ed M iles per Hour .
208

T ab l e A I6 3 . E valuation of Object Sightings for A l l Year s by R ePor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts '
Speeds ,
zo9
M eteor - Like

T a b l e A I6 4 . E v aluation of Object Sightings for A II Year s by R ePor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts '
209
Speed Not Stated .

of All Sightings for All Year s by Li ght Br i ghtnes s . 2I0


Table A165. E valuation

E valuation o{ Unit Sightings for AIl Year s by Li ght Br i ghtnes s z tl


Table A I66 .

T ab l e A I6 ? . E valuation of Object Sightings for A l l Year s by Li ght Br i ghtnes s zr z

T ab l e A 1 6 8 . Location of Obser ver s Dur ing Sighti ng by M onths fo! AU Si ghti ngs , AII Year s . zr 3

Location of Obser ver s Dur ing Sighti ng by M onths for A11 Si ghti ngs , 1947 z l ,4
T ab l e A I6 9 .

of Obser ver s Dur ing Sighti ng by M onttr s for AII Si ghti ngs , 1948 z I5
T a b l e A I?0 . Location

T ab l e A l ?I. Location of Obser ver s Dur ing Sighti ng by M onths {or AII Si ghti ngs ' 1949 zr 6

A l ?2 . Location of Obser ver s Dur ing Sight i ng by M onths for Al l Si ghti ngs ' 1950 zt7
Table

T ab l e A I73 . Location o{ Obser ver Dur ing Sightin g by M onths for AII Si ghti ngs , 195l . zL a

I95Z 7lq
Table A I7 4 . Location of Obser ver s Dur ing Sight i ng by M onths for Atl Si ghti ngs '

Table A l ?5 . Evaluation of AU Sightings for A11 Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, W hite or Glowing W bi te Obj ec ts . . zzo

T ab l e A 17 6 . Evaluation of AU Sightings for All Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on


of Sighting, M etallic Obje.ts . . ; . zz0

T ab l e Al?7. Evaluation of All Sightings for All Year s by C ol or s R ePor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Object Color Not Stated zzl

T ab l e A 17 8 . Evaluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R ePor ted for D ur ati on
oI Sighting, Or ange or .Glowing Or ange Obj ec ts . . ZZI

T ab l e A I?9 . Evaluation of AII Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sightingr Red or Glowing Red Objects . . zzz

T a b l e A I8 0 , Evaluation of A1l Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
o{ Sighting, Gr een or Glowing Green Obj ec ts
zzz

T ab l e A l 8l . Evaluation of AU Sightings for All Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on


oI Sighting, Yellow or Glowing Yel l ow Obj ec ts . z23

T ab l e A 18 2 . Evaluation of.All Sightings for All Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Objects of Other Color s
zz3

T ab l e A 18 3 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, W hite or Glowing W hi te Obj ec ts ' zz4

103
T N D EX OF T ABLES
( C onti nued)

Page

T ab l e A I84. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al l Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, M etallic Objec ts . . ZZ4

T ab l e A I85. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al l Year s by C ol or s R ePo!ted for D ur ati on


of Sighting, Object Color N ot Stated zz5

T ab l e A 186. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al l Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Or ange or Glow i ng Or aoge Obj ec ts . . zz5

T ab l e A 18?. Evaluation of Unit Sightings {or Al l Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Red or Glowing R ed Obj ec ts .

T ab l e A I88. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Gr een or Glow i ng Gr een Obj ec ts

T a b l e A189. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Ye11ow or Glow i ng Yel l ow Obj ec ts . zz7

T ab l e A 190. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for A11 Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Objects of Other C ol or s zz7

T ab l e A19I. Evaluati.on of Object Sighting s for AII Year s by Gol o!s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, W hite or Glowi ng W hi te Obj ec ts . . zz8

Table AI9Z. Evaluation of Object Sighting. for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, M etallic Objec ts . . zz8

Table A193. Evaluation oI Object Sightings for AIl Year s by C ol or s R ePor ted for D ur ati on
))a
of Sighting, Object Color N ot Stated

T ab l e A194. Evaluation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
?2q
of Sighti.ngr Qr ange or Glo w i ng Or ange Obj ec ts . .

T ab l e A195, Eyaluation oI Object Sightings {or A1l Year s by C ol or s R ePor ted for D ur ati on
Red or Glowing R ed Obj ec ts . . 230
of Sighting'

T ab Ie A196. Evaluation of Object Sightings for Al l Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Gyeen or Glow i ng Gr een Obj ec ts . . 230

Table AI97. Evaluation of Object Sightings for Al l Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, YeIIow or Glo w i ng Yel l ow Obj ec ts . 23r

Table AI98. Evaluation of object sighting s for Al l Year s by c ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Objects of Other C ol or s 23t

T ab te AI99, Evaluation of All sightings for Al l Year s by N um ber of obj ec ts per s i ghti ng
for Dur ation o{ Sightingr One Obj ec t z 3z

Table A200. Evaluation of All sightings for Al l Year s by N um ber of obj ec ts Per s i ghti ng
for Dur ation of Sighting, T w o Obj ec ts . . z 3z

T a b l e AZ0l. Evaluation of All Sightings for Al l Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts Per Si ghti ng
for Dur ation of Sighting, T hr ee to T en Obj ec ts . . 233

T ab l e A202. Evaluation of AII Sightings for Al l Year s by N um ber of obj ec ts Per s i ghti ng
for Dur ation of SiShting, El ev en or M or e Obj ec ts . . 233

T a b Ie A203. Evaluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts Per Si ghti ng
for Dur ation of Sighting, N um ber of Obj ec ts N ot Stated . 234

Table A204. Evaluation of unit sightings for A11 Year s by N um ber of obj ec ts per s i ghti ng
for Dur ation of Sighting, Oue Obj ec t
235

T ab l e A205. Evaluation of Unit Sr ghtings for Al l Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts Per Si ghti ng
for Dur ation of Sighting, T w o Obj ec ts
235
.

104
INDEX OF TABLES
(C onti nued)

Page

Table A206. E va luation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
{or Dur ation o{ Sighting, Thr ee to T en Obj ec ts , . 236

Table A 20 ? . E va luation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur atiou of Sighting, Eleven or M or e Obj ec ts . . 236

Table A208. E va luation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation of Sighting, Num ber of Obj ec ts N ot Stated . . 237

Tab l e A 20 9 . E va luation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation of Sighting, One Object 238
I
Ta b l e A ,2 1 0 . E va luation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation of Sighting, Two Object s . , 238

T ab l e A Z II. E va luation of Object Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation of Sighting, Thr ee to T en Obj ec ts . . 239

Tab l e A Z IZ . E va luation o{ Object Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation ol Sighting, Eleven or M or e Obj ec ts . . 239

Table A Z I3. E va luation of Object Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation of Sighting, Num ber of Obj ec ts N ot Stated . . Z4 O

Tab l e A 2 1 4 . E va luation of AU Sightings for All Year s by Geogr aphi c Loc ati on 24L

Table A 2I 5. E va luation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by Geogr aphi c Loc ati on . . 24l

Tab l e A Z I6. E va luation of Object Sightings for All Year s by Geogr aphi c Loc ati on . . z 4z

Table AZ l7. E valuation of All Sightings for AII Year s by N or tb Am er i c an Loc ati on, 243

Tab l e A Z I8. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by North American Location 243

Tab l e A 2 1 9 . E va luation of Object Sightings Ior All Year s by N or th Am er i c an Loc ati on 244

T ab l e A 2 2 0 . Evaluation o{ All Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location 245

T ab l e A Z Z I. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location 246

T a 6 l e A Z ?2 . EvalEtion of Object Sightings for All Yearg by United States Regional Location 247

Table 4,223. E valuation of All Sightings in ttr e Str a tegi c Ar eas of the C entr al Eas t R egi on 248

Table 4,224. Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Midwest Region . 248

T ab l e A ? 2 5 . E valuation of AU Sightings in the Str ategi c Ar eas of the C entr al F ar w es t R egi on . 248

T ab l e A 2 2 6 . E va luation of A1I Sightings in the Str a tegi c Ar eas of the South M i dw es t R egi on . . 249

T ab l e L 2 2 7 . E valuation of All Sightings in the Str ategi c Ar eas of the South W es t R egi on 249

Table 4,228. E valuation of A1l Sightings in the Str a tegi c Ar eas of the South F ar w es t R egi on . 249

T ab l e A 2 2 9 . Evaluation o{ Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central East Region 250
'

Table A230. E valuation- o{ Unit Sightings in the Str ategi c Ar eas of the C entr al . M i dw es t R egi on 250

T a b l e A 23 I. E va luation of Unit Sightings in the Str ategi c Ar eas of the C entr al F ar w es t R egi on , 250

" ta 6 l e A Z 3 Z . E valuation of Unit Sightings io the Strategi c Ar eas of ttr e South M i dw es t R egi on 25l

105
1B
IN D EX OF T ABLES
( Gouti nued)

Pa ge

of Unit Sightings i n the Str ategi c Ar eas of the South W es t R egi on z 5l


Table A 2 33. Evaluation

of unit sightings i n the s tr ategi c Ar eas of the s outh F ar w es t R egi on 25l


Table ,{234. Evaluation

of object sightings i n the s tr ategi .c Ar eas of the c entr al Eas t R egi on z 5z


T ab l e A 235. Evaluation

T ab l e A 2 35. Evaluation of object sightings i n tbe s tr ategi c Ar eas of the c entr al M i dw es t R egi .on 252

A 2 3?. Evaluation of Object Sightings i n the Str ategi c Ar eas of the C entr al F ar w es t R egi on z 5z
Table

Evaluation of Object Sightings i n the Str ategi c Ar eas of the South M i dw es t R egi on 253
Table A 238.

Evaluation of Qbject Sightings i n the Str ategi c A!eas of the South W es t R egi on . z 6i
T ab l e A 239.

of Object Sightings i n the Str ategi c Ar eas of the South F ar w es t R egi on . 253
T a b l e A 240. Evaluation
lloirtrr Pd C6l

EI
4,,

y'LJ ./€t?< /9y'7 / rr'( /Q:.Q

h!! Ps Crl Itd.r Pr Cat Itid Pd Cal lumbt Pd Crl

Enlda. )da. TfrI nn Id trl W IU hm tou ;mn w0n DouUn ToU :ffi. buto
.BJld ?rq t tt /t/1 q ,,2 ND 12 /q ?t t4 /1a //7 /-I
,llt l
'3
ltt ltt tnA ,<t /9 44 tt ?t ,71 2t t7 5t /t1 /4.L t4f ?4 to ??.t 1L2
l-^irdl ? t74 //.1 ?. 2 ,t.t r'- 2 ,t 42 /t 4 /, q< 2/" 't L /t /2 2' /2.'
FU|ltnrd. 12 2l <2 n9 4t t./ t/t 4t t ,t 2t /) t ,t ,t ,
.tliib ,e 23 t5 /).t] ,4 /) o /) ,f tn ,A 2 t r ', o 2 3 t.t 44
'Clrdt, lllt ae /o nt t,.t o.t 2 t /) t.t t.a nt D 2t a, t.t t a , ,/ n
;lolfic h. alLt 2L/ D1 t.D tAz t IL /rt tn /r.1 a |,f o.o ?? /) ? tl /4 tn /4t
rPvtblodcl . a 45 t1 174 t.t ? 2 r ?/ ,/ t2 2 ,7 to 2a t o ? /.t t/)
{lbr 49t 4?7 tel 1' .41 24 t 2t 24t to 4//, ta t, D5 ?? 2? /42
{}L ?,1 t2 a1 n u1 /t f) lL1 t 4 2/- ( 42 b o L 2.5 /rt

Yd ,7 ,44 7tI 29.1 tm. t( tt 91 (y'r /t.4 'oo c9 E tEl la4 ?<? tm /4t 9/- r'aL F' 4a2 I toD

/lsa /ts,/ /tt?,


E Pr Cdl E' P€ Cal ]hc Pd C6t t5.i I P! Cd
Ei|- m tu il m tor Toti
lrh 22 5 ,t A1 t.4 ttt ) t 3 t2 tt 2.2 ( t /z< t?o 1t4 1L v5 17t
LldldrJ //4. t? It ,tl fL ,1 th ?1 /t1 2 4t4 424 /D, ?.1t /2t t? n4
!{isi ?z /r/ I t.t tct /z t ,e /tt t.t n4 y'/ ltt 40t tt1 l/6 lr9
'LiflPt- o n , ,l t t /6 / . 7 ?.2 4a t0
'E
.lt /) a o 2Z It ltl t tt t/ 5 0.6 r1-9 111
{|..qH,tt 2 o a) ,. ,t n.z 2 2 a /7D a1./t 7 ,t ,t lr4
'L
;H[eI. 2Z o 2a /2t tt lt1 t 'L
/tJ tlt /t2 ,14 o /80 tr, , o 92
.Fla.a 2 2 lL td .r a td 2 ,7 2t /./ ?L z at t6 ,.t /.s
.uh 42 2 4t //1 / 2D ,t1 at at 31 ?11 1a ,47 ?1/4 ,2t to tt,
IF I 5 4t t./ 13 ? a ? <t ,/) <3 tt /b tI 2b tg ?t

T-l frt tt ed, 1/t /11 'dr. ta4 t- , tr7 tt4 t-:t 4ttr il7 at.t ta.

I07
8o
ffi batetr statt

108
INDEX OF FORMS

Page

Exhibit BI. Tentative Observers Data Sheet 259

Exhibit BZ. Tentative Obse rvers Questionnaire 267

Exhibit I}3. U. S. Air Force Technical Inforrnation Sheet 277

Exhibit 84. Codes for Work Sheet z89

E.,;iribit 85. Work Sheet 297

Exhibit 86. Codes for Card Bible. 301

Exhibit 87. Card Bible 3 09

Exhibit 88. Exarnpl.e of an IBM Card 313

257 and 258


copE6? nANrEQurvArp{! CODE?6 EI/AIUATIONOF OBSER\TER
RELIABIIITY

X Offlcer X x
YY I
0 Lt. 2nd 0 Prlvate 0 Conplete
I Lt. lst 1 Prlvateo let Cls. 1 Srlte
2 Capt. 2 Corp. 2 Falr
3 M aJ. 3 Serg. ? Dorbtfirl
L L t. C o }, l, S . T. Se rg . l+ Poor
5 Col. 5 M. Serg. 5 Not
6 Brlg. Gen. 6 tlarrant Off. 6
7 MaJ. Gen. 7 Chlef Warrant 7
8 Lt. Gen. I I
9 General 9 9 Canrt be Judged

RELTABTLITY CoDE?B pREtIMINAnvIDEMIFICATI9U


coLE ?? Er/AruATroN0F REBORT
x X Posslbtr"y
Y Y
0 Complete 0 Balloon
I Qulte I Astrononleal
2 Fatr 2 Aircraft
3 Doubtful 3 Light phenonenon
l+ Poor I Blrds
5 Not 5 Clouds, dust, ete.
6 6 Rocket or rolsslle
n
I 7 Psychological nanlfestatlons
8 I El.ectromagnetlc phenonenon
9 Canrt be Judged 9 0ther

CODE?9-80 FINAL IDEIYIIFICATION

x Probably
Y
o Balloon
I Astrononlcal
2 Aircraft
3 tlght Phenomenon
t, Blrds
5 Clouds, dust, etc.
6 Reeket-er-n*ee*1e Insuff lctent inforaatlon
7 Psychological nanife statlons
I Eleetrenegnet*e-pbeneEeRen Unknown
9 0ther

295 and 296


CODE6? AhIGUfuAACCETERATION BEARINC
(Change in angular velocitY) COD!]68 APPEARIJ'ICE

x Variable
x
Y
T ON
0 Zeto, V ' constant lNE
I fncreasing slowlY 2E
4
L Decreasing slow1Y
? Increasing fast 3SE
l+ Decreasing fast l+ s
Increasing verY fast 5 s} l
6l.;
5 Decreasing verY fast 7 N!'l
7 I
I Y

CODE?0.71 ELEVATION
BE48SS IlirTH RESPECTTO oRoUND'DIGREES
coDE69 DrsifPErENqE
Initlal
x Disappearedtit$3*fttt{0N
ssRqrc6
Division vA Variable x Variable
IHT.t"h?:illT'';;
tFF:.:'::t''';'-"; the
Air Foro' .L Y
::.;:* '..lo n:' 45thstreet U 0-g
0 0-9
.?t^t^if'',il I 10-r.9
Yo'k
New 1 r0-19
,fi3iX"'o;tt' 2 20-29
4
I 20-29
30-39
.t
3a-39
5 srd ll
ho-l+9
I
.+ h0-l+9
6w 50-5e 5a-59
? NW 6o-69 60-69
I { 7a-?9
IJ
"?
! 7a-79
f, 8c-89 80*Ep

OODE?2 OBJHCTONffi1{TATIO}'I
Apparent. i.nei-ination sf prineipa3"
--Iiis-of 90CUPATIOU
0B$i;riVFlfi'
oUiggt'grorn lrorizontai eoDE ?3 *lJtl'IEmIERS -:-e0DE
"--'- ?[*
i .1..

Y
K
Vasi"able
1r
vE Y Civil-:lan r'.1*';'*Pation rsb stated
fl, ,t ianaYp'nil"i ':*,tY
+gCIot0 6,00
I
+ii00 to 30c I 1 Nav3l', rra,l-1",r,4,rY
;l, '...{;;+.T"Y
Pl*"ri;:lc',1.,
"i rtilo "t.ll -!.ce 4:"
3 Air ta:r"cee .,iiiiitas3'
.,4,

1 .u,iOb i;o e,') J


l,
I' T' $o asrLstl'&*ru;rwritrl-tanY
C:J
r)e i;o -1"0o 5 Stersbranbmi*rine, militarY
tt* CIornnrereialair, eivil1an
-L0s tc -30s { CAlrr civiJ.lan
*30$ io -600 o
U I Governnont contractor, clvilinn
I -6os to -9oo I Civillan, other
a I

307
OF OB@
DE 75 EVALU,.TIOII CODE76 EVAI,UATION RELIABILITY
OF RT^PORT

x x
T Y
0 Complete Cornplete
1 Quite t Quite
2 Fair I Fair
3 Doubtful 3 Doubtful
l+ Poor L Poor
5 Not No t
6 6
7 7
B B
9 Cannot be judged Cannot be judged

CODE7? RELIABITITY GROUP CTASSIFICJ.TION


(Based on observer and .report ratings) copE38 FIlrAr rpENrrTrcATIoN
X Probably
Excellent (Observer O or I and Reoort 0 or 1) Y
Good (Observer 0 or 1, Report 22 3t or l+; 0 Balloon
Observer 2, 31 or lr, Report 0 or 11 Observer 1 Astronomieal
2, Report 2) 2 Aircraft
OouUtfui (Observer 0 or I, Report 5 or 9i 3 Light phenomenon
Observer 2, Report 3, b, 5t or 91 Observer L Birds
3 or lre Report 2, ), \t 5, or.9; Observer 5 5 Clouds, dust, etc.
or I+)
ot 9, Report 0, 1, 2t 3t 'Report 6 Insufficlent lnfornatlon
poo" (our""tut 5', 9', or fr 5, 9, or I) f Psychological manifestations
B Unknown
! Other

3C 6
(Wot tor general dtstrlbutlon)

DEPAXTI'IENTOF DEFENSE

MIMJTES OF PBESS CONFENENCE


EEI,D BY

I\{AJOBGENEBALJCHN A. SAlvlFORD

DISECTCn 0F IMELLTGENCn, U. S. Am FoRCE

29 July I9r2 - 4:00 p. n. - Room 3E-859, The Pentergon

Parttclpattng: lviaJor Gencral Roger M. Raney


Dlrector of Cperatlons, IJSAF

Colonel ,Donald. L. Bower, Technlcal Analysts


Drvtsion, Alr Technlcal Intclligunce Center

gap'talo R,cy L. James, Eleetronics Rranch,


Alr Tecr-,nl.enlInte1ll$ence Center

Captaln Edwa,rd.J. F.uppclt, Aerl;r.I Phenomenon


Branch, Air Tech-n1ca1 Intelllgence Center

l'{r. Fu::goyne L. Gr1-ffir'.9, Electronlcs Branch,


A1r Tecnnlcrl In'telll-Rcnce Center

ilB. SCHQOLEY: Ladles and. gentlenen, let me renlnd


the mllttarf t'h.r.it, whlle they arc welcome h.ere, thls 1s a
presg confer*nce r.r.rd.letrs be sure that tbe press ls aIl
seated before the coirference beglns.

Let me lntrcduce General Samford, Alr Foree Dlrector


of intell-tgenco, nnd General Raney, D!.rcctor of Operatlons.
Oenerc,l Sntnford.

MA,IC8 CENmAt $Al'lFCRDl f tbhk the plan ls to have


very bflef, opentng renerks and, then r,sk for such questlons as
you ufry vant to put to w for dlseusslon nnd &ns$rer, In so

H
r
for as openlir,g ren0,rks ls coneernetl, I Just nant to str:,te our
fecrson for conoern about th1s.

The Alr Force f,eels a very d.eflntte obllgatlon to


tdentlfy and anaiyze thtngs that hoppen 1n the alr tbat mry
bsve ln them nen::,ce to the Unlteti State.g and., because of that
feellng of obllgatlon ona our. pursult of that lnterest, sincc
L947 , we have an activtty thri.t was lcrown one timp as proJect
Saueer ond now, &$ irart of anothcr trore stable and lntegrated.
organlzrtlon, bnve urdertaken to analyze betveen a thousand.

If i nte reste d in getting a fuil


cop y of th i s 39- page docum entt
se e i n sl de fro nt cover of book.
.fu'

Corporation
Ramsey-\Wallace
PUBLISHERS
A 8 W E S T MA I N S T RE E T
RA MS E Y ' NE W . J E RS E Y
07446

$ 4.OO P E R CO P Y

Pr i nfed i n r he U .S.A. bv T he R onr s eyPr i n t S h o p p e

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