Professional Documents
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Air Force Project Blue Book Special Report
Air Force Project Blue Book Special Report
SAUCERS:
OF TH E
A N A NA L Y S IS
AIR FORCE
PROJECT BLUEBOOK
SPECIALREPORTNo.t4
l,il':'
This ner^rand enlarged ed.iilon of the HLue Book SpeciaS. Report No. 14
is belng issued because of the demandwhich has steadily continued since
th:is was first publ-ished in I956t and, whlch is ncrr inereasing because of
recent sightings. Th€ upsurg€ of natLonaJ- nagazine and televisioa pub-
liclty and trad,e books, ln the flrst half of L%r ls reninLscent of the
the great 1952 nflaprr. The author
sirnLlar perlod In I952t shich preced,ed,
states h-ere his belief that the C.I.A. was and, is responsibl-e for mrch of
this; the reader may rnakehis or her om evaluation.
l"Iary earJ.y press releases and other rare d.ocunnentshave been included
in this ed.itlon. which even the Air Force ltseLf claftns to have copies of
no J.onger. (See'p. C5.) flre Table of Contents (p. ii) shol^tswhere these
may be found. Comnents by the author appear on the first page of each of
the four Parts Lnto r,rhich this edition is divided'.
tlie authorl s files eontain nany more docuroents r,lhich night be of ln-
terost to serLous stuclents of the subJectp but whlch had to be onttted
fmrn thls book because of the prressure of sp&c€r These tnclude the ful1
39-page transcrlpt of the famous press conferenee of MaJ. Gen. John A. Sar
height of the idashlngton
Sord at the Pentagon on Jrrly 290 1952, at the
trflaptt, in uhich [e unhesitatinlly denled that,the U.S. had 8r{r sec]Bt d.e-
vlces irftfefr had no rnass and unlirnlted po,rert (See inside back cov-er for
reproduetlon of first page of transcript.)
Another iten in the fl1es ls Atr Force Eegulatiola ?oO-Z, whlch the
.Lir Foree no ]-onger issues to the publlc' (see p' c5') The author also
ltas his unclassliled notes on the contents of the 19/19ProSect GRUDGE Re-
port (See p. A1) including conplete l-ists of the cases ln
studJ-ed. that
'report,
co-rre1atlons of t[e sightlngs, remarks on each case, the officlal
caie nqmter"g and locations, etc. Another lten i.s the forr'page 1lst of,
questLons presented to l{aj6r Fotrrnet at the Pentagon on Nov. 5t 1952 (See
pp. ALrAZ) together rrith hls startllng answers.
Third Edition
consisting of
Publishing History
Original Air Force Issue (100 copies, restricted distribution) May 1955
First Edition published by Leon Davidson 1000 copies D ec . 1956
Second Edition pubtished by Leon Davidson 1000copies Oc t. 1957
Third Edition published by Ramsey-Wallace Corp.
First Printing 2000 coPies JuIy 1966
SecondPrinting 2000 coPies July 1967
Part c: The current (1966) air Force fieLease on progeet BLue Book 0L
Sransnlttal- Letter from AS.nSorcou J"r:ne3, j"g66 $,,t
Stat*stics for ,T"965 r.t8
Fart D: Analysis of the PnoJr:et 33ue Book $pec;l.a.l fiepont No. J.d". $1
R.lblLsherle Statement ::"romRlrst and Saconei I&litions []2
Analysis bJr Sr. teon $ayidson heglns on page B/e
Atr Force Press Retreaeed.ated 0ctober 25? ZgSy $f
$rggestions to ths ltea,fler EIO
Orliginal- TttLe Page cf ^Sir !'orce SditL,:n of Beport i
Tabl-e of Oontents 8s publ"ished. bf Atr Fo:rce ;t
Ltst of fLluetra**ons as publlshed hy AJ.r Forco -,_lo,f
,Surn:nary(which a*cu.trpa:r-tedthe Sctober eSrl:gSS release) '
S'
?he srFlying Saucerrt l,Tcdcl- qS
fionchrsions, {rs puh i.s}-l*ti b.y the Air lTnr*e 68
"lFpelnrlfx A. iirn'.e:'t ,i1,1Taih"l**qi.n fr"i.r Fr:l.qg ile**g-h'"i ri::"-;ri
In January L952 I moved to Arli.ngton, Va., and asked to inspect the saucer
fllcs at the Pentagon, per letter on p. Al. Thc repJy, enelosing trdo press re-
leases, ts r.eproduced on pages A4 and 45. f qisited. Lt. Col. Searl-es and 1,1r.
AJ. Chop at the Pentagon A.Fi' Fress Desk several times, ard e:rarained,the para-
phrased varsion of the CBUD@Report there, verlfying that rry notes made at
Los Alanos were coverred by this d,eelassified publicly available d.ocunent.
Perhaps as a result of zucb argumsnts, the Air Force revised. lts regu-
lation AI'R 200-2 in August l95ln pointlng out that saucer reports should be
taken seriously, Just in case.n.. Ib,e Air !'o:rce also stopped d.enying that
saucers might be Asrerlcan devlces, by dropping fronr its 195/r (and later)
press releases the denj-al paragraph which it had used up through 1953.
(Gorpare the bracsketed paragraphs in the press reLeases reproduced, on pages
S10, A1/*, and aI'/.) I then r.rot.e and got cLeared the l-etter shor.m on p. &19,
pointing out the nenrposltion taken by the Air Foree.
The 1953 release about the nlleLl Roarern flare (p. A20) shows a tylpical
cause of somo flying saucer reports, and firrthermore shors how 1gg1!@!g
secret ndlitary actlvlties have led, to flying saucer reports. These usually
receive funnrodiateper{\mctory denials that UnS. activities or aircraft had
had arything to do with eausirlg the repor*s. Sueh d.enial-s are properfy Jus-
tified because of the eecret nature of the aetlqitles at the tinre. lhe
Later adml"esions (as in the p. A20 press release, for e:cample) tend not to
eatch up r*lth. the original d.enials, so that zuch evrgnts get establi.shed Ln
the saueer Literature as ilauthenttcrr eases. (See qf article flECI'{+ CIA = IJF0{
in the Mareh-April 1"960Lesue of IlElFg Saucer Fpoiew (London, Engi.and).)
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T L953
ISSUED ABOUT DECEI\tsER
F A CT S } IEE T
. D url n g 19 5 2 , the bum per year for t' saucer t' slghtlfigs, 1r '7OO
r e p o r t s w ere rece l ved b y the Alr For eer .ol' lvhich fO per c.ent c am e
f r o m c l vl l .tran so u rces. Appr oxlm ately 2O .per cenb of the slgh tl ngo
w e r e un e xp l al na b l e o n the tr agls of infor m atlon r ecelved.
MORE
A1 {
In o rde r to o ver com e thls lack of' bas1c data, and to s tandar d-
I z e a j .f ::e p o rts, a detalled questlonnalr e was pr epar ed by the A1r
T ech n l ca1 In te l i l ge n ce Cer r tc' r and 1s now subm ltted to eac h per s on
r ep o rbl ng a n u n l de n tlfled aer lal object. It is felt that the
l ni orrn a tl on thu s ob talned w1]1 lower st1ll m or e the nur nber of
u nexp l al ne d sl g h tl ng s.
-2- MORE
At3
T e mp e ratu re l nve rsl o n r eflectlons can glve a r etr r r n on a r adar
s c o p e t h a t 1s a s sha rp a s that r ecelved fr om an alr cr "afL. Speeds
o f t h e s e retu rns re p o rted l y r angc fr om zer o t:o far r l,asblc r ates
T h e ' r o b Jectst' a l so a p p ca r to niove ln alL dir .cctlor r s Sr "r chsi- ght-
lngs have resr.rltcd 1n nratiy frr.rltless ilitr:rt:r.ifjt efforts.
-3- MOTiE
A1+ T h e n a mes o f the per sons lnvolved 1n thc slghtlngs ar e.w l th-
he l d 1 n re sp e ct o f their pr lvacy. They ar e fr eer - howe Ver , to Say
w h a t th e y p i ea se .-;and Iiepor ti whlch dlvulle the capabllltles of our
al rcraftl i 'a a i r, blectr onlc equlpm er it ar e cLasslfled for
o b vl ou s re a so n s. Af f othcr lnfor niatlon wlth r "espect to s l ghfl ngs
1s a matte r d f pu b li- c r ecor d.
t'fl y l r tg
A n o th e r ml sconceptlon eenter s about photogr aphs of
sau ce r.s" . T he A l rt'flytng For ce does not possess photogr aphs w hl c h pr ov e
t h e e xl sten ce o f saucer sr t. Because stll] phot ogr aphs , c an
bc so e a s1 l y fake d , 6tt[er by uslng a m ock- up or m odel 'agal ns t a
1eg1t|nate Lackground, or by- retouchlng the negablye', they are
p ri ctl ea l l y w o rthl ess as evidence. Innum er abl.e obJect s , fr om as h-
t rays to w l sh b a sl ns, have been photogr aphed wh1]e sal l l ng thr ough
the- alr. Many such :6trotos have been publistred wlthout ieveallng
t h e true , l de n tl ty of the obJccts "
i ft." Alr Force has stated 1n the pa't, and reafflrrns at the
phenomgna--aTe not a secret
I pr"r*it'tf.til r- th;t unexpfifned aerla]- States.
I weap.x, rnlssite, Or alrbraft, developr:cl by the United
I ii;;;";i ;h; trrn6e mltltary: d*ipartrnents nor anv other agcncv 1n t
J A;;;d*""t-ls conductlng 6xpeilrnents,- clapslfled ot' otherwlse,
| flyhg 6Ujecis *r,f6rt cbuld be a basls for tho reported phe-
"itrt-
nomena.
I
r-
a,'m., tolcen,
IJy the same tnkon - rrrr attl-,hent'1c physlcal
1'roauthentlc r evlde nce has beert
re ce l ved e sti nffsh l ng lfte exlstence of space shlps fr o m other
pl an e ts.
END
-4-
ISSUED ABOUT lv
DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE ocToBER,1964
O ffl ce of Publlc Infor m atlen
Wa shlngton 25t D. C.
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Part B: 1'lrc CIA PANELBcport of 19(3
lbe rnaterlaL ln thc Project Blue Book gpcclaJ. Rcport No. 1l+ (s€e Part D)
B1
nar flrst preparoal t\ 1952 at the rcqucrt of the CIA by A1r Forc. contlactors
ancl the ProJcct Blue Book staff, for pros.ltatloa to a panel of sclontlsts early
ln 1953. (Sco E.J.Ruppeltrs book [The Report on Unldentlfled F1ylng obJcctsrr,
Doubleday, fl.rst edltloar .sp. pp. 293-2}.t for the background of thls Panef.)
In Junc, 1p66, one of thc Pancl nenbers, appearlJlg on e CBg TV Speclal Report,
pubJ.lcly naneil the CfA at ths rsgercyr (unaened by Ruppclt) vhlch had palrl for
the Pancl,! s actlvltles.
gthough th€ BlEc Book Report No. 1l+ yas nad6 pubHa lu Octobvr 1955 .sec
page D5), tbe Palel-rs r.port (page 82) ua! kept secret unt11 glven to MaJ. D.E.
Keyhoe 1! early J.tl8, for usc ln a racllo lntervlcy, I ther vrote to the CIA to
get the nat-_rlal., anal (BGC l€tter on p. 82) thc Pane1 rcport ras glrren to ne on
ilprll 91 1918, f6t dlstrlbutlon. I then vrotc to oaoh Pa"n61 nenb6r, antt to otherr.
to try to clarlfl th6 purpose aril neanlng of tbclr r.port. Selectlons fron the
rsplles vhlch I rocclved ar€ r€produced otr pag€r 83 to 35.
Note tbat the na{n purposc of tbl's Panel study, lnsofar es the CIA vas con-
oc!!etl, spparegtl.y vrs to prepsro for e tcst program to se6 rrhy peopls reacteal
strolgly to trflylEg laucerr slghtjrgs. (Scveral polnts ln the letters touchlng
oB tbls ar€ ln(llceted by narglnal notes rrSee Pagc Bl.n) hon thls, the CIA nlght
bave rrisbetl to derlvc aon€ ulofuL psychologlcal. rrarfarc tecbnlques.
#*
1hc lctter reproctgced belou sho$s that the nornal cha:nel for sci€ntlfie
study of govertrlttelt rroblens, the Natlonal Academyof Sclences. (vtrich would not
gi1 ngutat;nce" ;-.srraplng rts iui"ri;i;-hJ'n;;
lrave.accepted..such besr lnvlted
to stualy the rrsaucern slgbtlngs, at thc iand tine tilt-tft bJl'ffi"n"r of scien_
tlsts $as set-up. Thus one
1iy'be Justlfleal fn aouliini-irr"t'^tir"'u-s.co""r"r"nt
:h99lg1y uantetl an inpartlal sclenilflc lnvestigatlon 5r tne liivrne
in 1953. Tbls ls rurther shown by th6 Governnenl,s fallure to aa6pt ors"u""rjn
I1sh the recomendatlons glven by tbe pa.nel ln pat.e"upl 3-oi-tir"i'r'r6po"icil"s2), to oub-
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A lcttcr fron r not
Panclr sho vrotc to PaneL nenbors ho
kaorr'acking about thc Rcport, tn 1958'
{J.t Qt |
s I ,'
\ | " Ex ac tl y l
q&b \
\ "You mean you would like to uge thig phenornenon'
q,
qft 6ay , to pr oduc e an i m age of C hr i s t ov er the k r er nl i n?r '
kr " he s ai d'
s*
\
" Yee that'e
I'Abs ol ute
an ex c el l ent ex am pl e,
I then w ent on to
nons ens e I " I r epl i ed'
emphatically that I waa not goirig to be muzzled by any con-
state
of s ec ur i ty or s ec r ec y i n thi s dev el oPr nent' As I r ec a l l '
sider ati ons
Gener al Sanl or d w as pr es ent at thes e r neeti ngs '
S i ncerel y yours,
CI
Parb Cr The Current (f966) Air Force Reloase on Project Blue Book
Pagcs C-l thro-rgh C-8 coryrisc the coqplete tert of the doeument
lssued b5r the Alr Force in Febmary 1966 as its cument frpress
releasefr for ttre public. Tho only doletions (made necessary by
l-inLtations of space) are a frsrrggested.Reading Listrr of books on
astronory, atrnospheric phenomenarete., whieh oonstituted page 6,
and a Elreball Report Form which fonned page J.0. If desiredt
these mlsslng pages rnay be obtained fron the publLsher (see back
cover for add.ress) at a nomina} charge to cover reprod.uction and
handLing expenses.
The cover letter fron the Air Force whieh aeconpanied this docu-
rnent is reproduced on page C-4, occupying t^rhat was a large blank
space in thc or{.glnal- document. Pages 4 and 5 of the originai-
doeurent, whieh were eaeh half-blanh, have been combined on
page C-J. Pages 6 and 10 have been ornitted, as stated above.
PR OJ E C T
BLUE
BOOK
I FEBR U A R Y 1966
C?
The United States Air Force has the responsibility under the Department of Defense for the
investigation of unidentified flying objects (UFOs). The name of this program, which has been in
operation since 1948, is Project Blue Book. It has been identified in the past as Project Sign and
Project Grudge.
Air Force interest in unidentified flying objects is related directly to the Air Force responsi-
bility for the air defense of the United States. Procedures for conducting this program are estab-
lished by Air Force Regulation 200-2.
The objectives of Project Blue Book are two-fold: first, to determine whether UFOs pose a
threat to the security of the United States; and, second, to determine whether UFOs exhibit any
unique scientific information or advancedtechnology which could contribute to scientific or technical
research. In the course of accomplishing these objectives, Project Blue Book strives to identify
and explain all UFO sightings reported to the Air Force.
The program is conducted in three phases. The first phase includes receipt of UFO reports
and initial investigation of the reports. The Air Force base nearest the location of a reported sight-
ing is charged with the responsibility of investigating the sighting and forwarding the information to
the Project Blue Book Office at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio.
If the initial investigation does not reveal a positive identification or explanation, a second
phase of more intensive analysis is conductedby the Project Blue Book Office. Each case is objec-
tively and scientifically analyzed, and, if necessary, all of the scientific facilities available to the
Air Force can be used to assist in arriving at an identification or explanation. All personnel asso-
ciated with the investigation, analysis, and evaluation efforts of the project view each report with
a scientific approach and an open mind.
The third phase of the program is dissemination of information concerning UFO sightings,
evaluations, and statistics. This is accomplished by the Secretary of the Air Force, Office of In-
formation.
The Air Force defines an unidentified flying object as any aerial object which the observer is
unable to identify.
Reports of unfamiliar objects in the sky are submitted to the Air Force from many sources.
These sources include military and civilian pilots, weather observers, amateur astronomers,
business and professional men and women, and housewives, etc.
Frequently such objects as missiles, balloclns, birds, kites, searchlights, aircraft navigation
and anticollision beacons, jet engine exhaust, condensationtrails, astronomical bodies and meteor-
ological phenomenaare mistakenly reported as unidentified flying objects.
The Air Force groups its evaluationsof UF'Oreports under three general headings: (1) identified,
(2) insufficient data, and (3) unidentified.
C3
Identified reports are those for which sufficient specific information has been accumulatedand
evaluatedto permit a positive identification or explanationof the object.
Reports categorized as Insufficient Data are those for which one or more elements of informa-
tion essential for evaluation-?Te-mGFilflSome examples are the omission of the duration of the
sighting, date, time, location, position in the sky, weather conditions, and the manner of appearance
or disappearance.If an element is missing and there is an indication that the sighting may be of a
security' scientific, technical, or public interest value, the Project Blue Book Office conductsan
adcl-itionafinvestigation and every attempt is made to obtain the information necessary for identifi-
cation. However, in some instances, essential inforrnation cannot be obtained. and no further action
can be taken.
The third and by far the smallest group of evaluationsis categorized as Unidentified. A sight-
ing is considered unidentified when a report apparently contains att pertirGnt d[Tlffiessary to
suggest a valid hypothesis concerning the cause or explanationof the report but the description of
the object or its motion cannotbe correlated with any known object or phenomena.
T her e a re v a ri o u s ty p e s o fU F 0 s i g h ti ngs.Mostcommonarereportsof" @
whic hinc lu d e b ri g h tS ta rS,p l a n e ts ,c o m ets,fi rebal Is,meteors,auroral strea@ -
tial bodies. when observed through haze, light fog, moving clouds, or other obscurations
or unusual
conditions, the planets, including venus, Jupiter, and Mars have been reported
as unidentified flying
objects. Stellar mirages are also a source of reports.
Satellites are another major source of UFO reports. An increase in satellites reported as
UFOs
tras co66aUout because of two factors. The first is the increase of interest on the part
of the public;
the second is the increasing numberof satellitesin the skies. Positive knowledge
of the location of all
satellites at all times enables rapid identification of satellite sightings. reeping track
of man-made
objects in orbit about the earth is the responsibility of the North American Air Defense
Command
Space Detection and Tracking System. This sophisticated electronic system gathers complex
space
traJfic data instantly from tracking stations all over the world.
Other space surveillance activities include theuseof ballistic tracking and large telescopic
cam-
eras. ECHO schedules are prepared by theNASAGoddardSpace Flight Center at Greenbelt,
Maryland,
and schedules of the South/North equator crossings are prepared by the Smithsonian Institution
at
Cambridge, Massachusetts. From the data produced bytheseagencies, satellites mistakenly
reported
as UFOs can be quickly identified. Some of these are visible to the naked eye.
AircraJt account for another major source of UFo reports, particularly during
adverse weather
conaili6iSShen observed at hiqhaltitudesandatsome distance, aircraft can have
appearances rang-
ing from disc to rocket shapes duetothe reflection of the sun on their
bright surfaces. vapor or con-
densation trails from jet aircraft will sometimes appear to glow fiery
red or orange when reflecting
sunlight. Afterburners from jet aircraftareoftenreforteaas uFos since they can be seen from great
distances when the aircraft cannot be seen.
The Project Blue Book office has direct contact with all
.elements of the Air Force and the Fed-
eral Aviation Agency civil air control centers. All aerial refueling
operations and special training
flights can be checked immediately. Air traJficof commercial airlinel and
flights of military aireraft
are checked witlt the nearest control center, enabling an immediate
evaluation of aircraft nii"trt*iv
reported as uF]Js. However, since manylocalflights are not carried,
these flights are probable causes
of some reports.
Balloons continue to be reported as UFOs. Severalthousandballoons are released each day from
mititffid civilian airports, weather stations, and research activities. There are several types of
balloons - weather balloons, rawinsondes, radiosondes, and the large research balloons which have
diameters up to 300 feet. At night, balloons carry running lights which cause an unusual appearance
when observed. Reflection of the sun onballoons at dawn and sunset sometimes produce strange ef-
fects. This usually occurs when theballoon,becauseof its altitudes, is exposedto the sun. Large bal-
loons can move at speeds of over 100 miles per hour when moving in high altitude jet windstreams.
These balloons sometimes appear to be flattened on top. At other times, they appear to be saucer-
shaped and to have lights mounted inside the bag itseU due to the sun's rays reflecting through the
material of the balloon. The Balloon Control Centerat Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico, main-
tains a plot on all Military Upper Air Research Balloons.
Another category of UFO evaluatlons labeled Other includes missiles, reflections, mirages,
searchlights, birds, kites, spurlous radar indications, hoaxes, fireworks, and flares.
Aircraft, satellites, balloons, and the like should NOT be reported since they do not fall within
the definition of an unidentified flying obJect.
JUt{- 3 1966
ELue Book Spclal Rcpor{ #flr vaa a onc t1n rportr and, rc
havc no pJrna to rcplacc or narrirc ltr
Slnccrrly,
,/?')
..r ./
/
'//,
I Ateb
.t/r&,:K7
'ro,li:t'.
ProJect BIue Eook !t Cotonel, USAy'
Chlef, Q/vil Blanch
^ tr - ^ -/
To date, the firm conclusions of ProjectBlueBook are: (1) no unidentified flying object reported,
investigated, and evaluated by the Air Force has ever given any indication of threat to our national
securityl (2) there has been no evidence submitted to or discovered by the Air Force that sightings
categorized as unidentified represent technological developments or principles beyond the range of
present day scientific knowledge; and (3) therehasbeen no evidence indicating that sightings categor-
ized as unidentified are extraterrestrial vehicles.
The Air Force does not deny the possibility that some form of life may exist on other planets in
the universe. However, to date, the Air Forcehas neither received nor discovered any evidence which
proves theexistence and intra-space mobility of extraterrestriallife. The Air Force continues to ex-
tend an open invitation to anyonewhofeelsthat he possesses any evidence of extraterrestrial vehicles
operating within the earth's near space envelopeto submit his evidence for analysis. Initial contact
for this purpose is through the following address:
Anyone observing what he considers to be an unidentified flying object should report it to the
nearest Air Force Base. Persons submitting a UFO report to the Air Force are free to discuss any
aspect of the report with anyone. The Air Force does not seek to limit discussion on such reports and
does not withhold or censor any information pertaining to this unclassified program.
The Jollowing items are for internal use only and are not available for
dlstribution to the public. These concern internal managemenTTndprocedures
for forwarding UFO reports to the appropriate agency:
2. JANAP 146
The Air Force has no films, photographs, maps, charts, or graphs of un-
identified flying objects. Photographs that have been submitted for evaluation
in conjunction with UFO reports have been determined to be a misinterpreta-
tion of natural or conventional objects. These objects have a posltive identifi-
cation.
The Air Force no longer possesses, and thus does not have for distribu-
tion, outdated reports on Project Sign, Project Grudge, Blue Book Special
Report No. 14, and outdated Project Blue Book press releases. Non-military
UFO publications should be requested fromthepublisher, not the Air Force.
415
TOTAL UFO (OBJECT)SIGHTINGS
(C ompi l ed 1T Jan 66 )
TOTAL
YEAR SIGHTINGS I.JNIDENTIFIED SOIIRCE
1953 1954 1955 1956 195? 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 TOTA L
Astronomical 175 13? 135 222 341 23t 144 235 203 136 85 r23 2167
Aircra-tt 73 80 124 148 2'.8 106 63 66 17 68 73 7t 116?
Balloon ?8 63 toz 93 114 58 31 22 3? 19 28 20 665
Insufficient Data ?9 103 95 132 191 111 65 105 115 S4 59 99 1248
Other 62 58 65 61 tzo 93 ?5 94 11 65 58 88 916
Satellite 0 0 0 0 8 1 8 02L691':-82t424t7
Unidentilied 42 46 24 t4 14 10 t2 14 13 15 14 19 237
T O T AL '4f7
50e 525 6?0- 1006 m 3eb EE? 5et Tti 3ee 562- 6dil
ASTRONOMICAL SIGHTINGS
Hoaxes, Hallucinations,
Unreliable neports and
Psychologica-l Causes 15 6 18 16 37 29 t4 13 t7 11 16 34 226
Mi ssi l es and nockets 2 7 1 3 2 6 1 472139137 83
R eflections 4 6 4 3 2 7 11 I 3 3 0 2 54
F l ares an d Fir ewor ks t4 8 6 8 3 5 7 433,1 59
l"{ i rases md lnversions 3 2 4 1 5 2 4 56302
sea rch a n d Gr oundlights 9 6 1 4 9 r 2 8561326 81
Clouds and Contrails 6 3 2 t9 5 3 4 5450 47
C ha-ff 0 2 0 1 2 6 1 43521 27
B rrds 4 1 2 6 1 1 0 32224 34
Radar Analysis 15 7 1 I 27 3 8 6 I 0 I 2 87
Photo Ana-lysis 1 1 2 4 7 7 4 63236 40
Physical Specimens 1 6 5 3 5 10 3 ? 4 15 3 8 70
S a te l l i te Decay 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 93343 ZJ
Oth e r 1 7 4 0 9 5 3 34246
T O T AL -A
sB- ib- -TT _lZb
ig- ?5
-eA -,n
ib-
-86 -86 =_48
vto
EE
STATISITICSFOR I9O5
APR MAY JI'N JUL AUG SEP ocT NOV DEC TOTAL
JAN FEB MAR
4 21027823027 22 t2 245
ASTRONOMICAL 108 1l
l4 1l 14732612013 l4 5 2lO
AIRCNAFT 11 8
32 I a 03?627 0 236
BALLOON
I N S U F F I CIENT DAT A 54 , 4 421624155
2 185
I 56942 19 ll 3 126
OTHER 11 8
1554241243 0 3 t52
S A T E L L I TE 45 o c
10 2 I 102440 1 016
UNIDENTIFIED
I 0 000226 4 217
PENDING 00
45 35 T3 5- aI $ I3b m, lb4 10 DC ,6 Bn
TOTAL
ASTRONOMICAL CASES
MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL
JAN FEB
OT H E R C ATEGORY
JAN FEB MAR APB MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL
Hoaxes, Hallucinations,
Unreliable Reports and
3 4 1 2 | 2 t2 3 0 34
Psychologicalcauses 5
I a 1 10
Miisiles affl Rockets
I I 2 I I
Retlections
I I I 4
Flares and Fireworks a
t
Mlrages and Inversions
0 I 0 0 1 2 0 9
S e a rcha n dGr oundLights 2 |
Clouds and Contrails 1 I I
I
Chaff
B i rd s | 2 2 3 lll ll
lc
lr 1w
P h vsi cal Specim ens
le lg 3gmn lm 6
Radar Analysis
zdl ld li 2kj 5x 1j t2
Photo Analysis
I I 0 1 0 2 0101 8
S a te l l i teD ecay O I
lh 4sbbb th 3tuv 13
Miscellaneous 2^b ?bt
T OT ALlIE' 856 I 42 teu5 1ze
(a) Tracer Bullets (b) Misinterpretatlon of ConventionalObjects (c) Metal Ball (d) Developer Smear (e) Anomalous Propagatron
(J) No Image on.Fllm (k) Poor Photo Process (l) Free Falling Object
it) fit"" (g) Electronic Counter Meaaures (h) Debris in Wind
(m) False Targets (n) weather Returns (p) dmulsion Flaws (r) Ptastic Bags (s) Man on Ground (t) Lightnine (u) chemical Trails
from Research Rocket (v) Missile Launch Activity (rv) Gourd
I
part D: Analysis of Project Blue Book speclal Report No. 1/r
lbis scction includes the fulI text of the First Editionr which con-
taincd certain press releases lszued in L955 at the tlne that
Special Report No. 1/" was alrnounced to the public. The material
w-hich appeared on the inslde covers and outsld.e back cover of the
Second inttion has been omitted., as being outdated and non-eubstantive.
flre Atr'R pff,-z docutrent (pages X-I to X-/r) which ie bound ln at the
centcr fold of thls edition was not lncluded in the first tt'ro cdl-
tJ.ons, and should be ignored in arqr roferences to page nur:oberl.
rt arfd not form part of tho contents of the orig:inal spoelal Report
No. 1/*.-l[4d.itlonal single copi.es of the Afn 200-2 document may be
roquested, free of charge, by wrd.ting to the publlsher at the ad-
d.ress sholln on the back cover of thls book, enclosing a long self-
add^ressedenvolope bearing flrst-class postage. Give your ZIP-Code'
Dcoernbcr7, 3956
I-EG ISLAT IVEAND PUBLIC AFFAIRS
Stncerely
T-",
[*.
-.-,--, **xJa "0..t-*.*r.-.-
Pblllp K. AlLcn
Dopfiy, hrbllc Affalru
Force has not d.lstrlbuted the full- 316-page ProJect Blue Book Special Re-
i port No. I/+ because the cost would. have been prohibltlve. A letter from
i A.F.Su"""tary Donald A. Quarles, dated July 51 L956, statest
rrlt has been
estimated. that the cost of nrintlng enough copies for distribution to the
public thr.ough such outlets; as libraries and academlc institutlons would
tl
be between $tO and $l-5 per copY.
This privately fLnanced. editlon of the Blue Book report is being ls-
sued. as a public ser,ric.. Through the careful eliminatlon of the bulk of
tho tables in the orlginal report, the slzo has been reduced to about 8O
pages, without loss oi a single wonl of the main text. The full Tables of
borrt"rrtr of the origlnal report have been retained, so that the reader may
know exactly what has been onr:itted. The only pulpose ln the omissicns
has been to bring the cost d.olrn to a reasonable level, So that widespread
distribution could be establi-shed.
tZl Page 76 of the original editicn has been reoroduced in two parts, as
nage nurnbers) of this eCition, to emphasize
pBges +l ati--lO ("ip"t
betweln sections and avoid sn1lt-up of the text by the
the dlvision
Chl Square tables.
The case numbers have been written in on the sketches of the twelve
tl] The orlg-
nsood ,INKi'td;N';iciiiiNcs- (pages 52 to 6t ?! tlis ed'ition) '
iial ed.ition did not put such numberson the sketches.
originally accounted
t+] The hea,]ing at the top of pa,ge 69 (this editj-cn)
at the top of nage
for two pr!u" of the rupo,{, and was incorn.rtted
69 tor econolryo
to sorae
please note: The original- report assigned double nage numbers
practise when a blank prrre fo1-1ows a orinted
pages, as is usual Goiernment
page.Thisisthecaseonpages2ofthlsedition,whichwaslabeled
po["t n295 and' 296't Ln the original edition'
DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE 7"3
W ASH IN GT ON
15 November 1955
I trust this serves to rnake clear the position of the Air Force.
Since rely,
&v*
ANDRE\r y/J. KTNNEY I
Brigadie'r General, USnlf
Director of Information Services
The nress release on the fsClng pase, and the sumary fron the reportt
were the bnty rnaterial nede readily avallab1e to the publle by-ProJect
Blue Book. ihe ful1 text of the report was essentially u:ravailable to
Subconrnlttee
the pqblic, as shown in the Fecord' of Hearings of the House
olr ,Sovern*ent rrrfo"t"ii"" (Rep. John E. Moss, Chairman) for Nov' L5, ]..956'
Cne mlght wonder whether the Alr Force had octually wanted to keep the
fu11 report from the pubIlc, and lf so, why{
lhe answer may be fcr:nd. by reading tho text and' tables of the reportt
I arr.ii.ecmparing 't,hls the Sururoaryrdl;tdUlte$ publicly with tbe press re-
I Iease. Tthekey to ',ith the ansr,reris cbnta:ned in Flg. I (or1S. p..2d) and
\ T.,bles L7, A2, u"A lj-(orig. pp. 10? and 108). Flg. I sho*s that unknown
tt :,iohtin,,s'"o"ititute 33.f,, of-aff the object sightines-f9l wnign the re-
nExcellentrt. Tables A1--43 ag3ee
1..ir,:rji'ity of iire sighl:."/ f" consi'dered
are inglud'ed, the-pen'
t
I ,,,hi-si even if sigtrtings of lesser reliability
It ,,j.rrr
I (.-.,,ii1.:t,,-:
sf U:-rl;rr:.'r.rn
silfrtinls j-s not less than about 204' Note that tbe
i::-:'c,rriat,icn in Llie nain body of the report covers the years I9l+7-'L952'
"The A1r Force and the other Armed servlces have under
ment several vertlcal-rls1nsr develop-
hlgh p."io"*unce alrcraft, and as
e a r l y a s fa st-yea r a p rop elr 6r oir vbn- ver tr "ar - "isin[
flown- T h e A 1 r F o rce w i l t f1y the r ir si ar r cr aft w as
Jet- power ed ver tlcal-
r l s l n g a l rp l an e 1 n a matter oi oays.- - !' r ; have- another pr oJect under
contract wlth-AVRO Ltd., of Canadi, wfricfr could
shaped alreraft.gorgo*hr! result ln disc-
srmrrar i5 irr"-poprrlar concept of a flylng
s a u c e r . A n a va l l a b l d p l ctur e, whir e only an
couLdlllustrate ar tlstsr gonceptl on,
such an obJecg..(plglgEt";ii G"iiiiraur. ar
Pictoriar Branch, RoomzD7B6;nitj-7ffJir.
"rnthlle some of these may take novel forms, sueh as the
p r o J e c t r -th e y are dl re ct-l l ne AVRO
d.escendents of conventlonaL alr c r aft
and should not be regarded as supra-naturar
p e c t t o de ve l op a trpl an e s that- wiir or mysterlous. we ex_
ir y- r gster , hlgher and perhaps
f a r t h e r th a n p rese n t d e si gns,_bgt tGt"wtr l stir i- EuJy natunat l aw s
and lf manned, they w1ri-Jtr1l be manired by normal terrestrlat
men. other than reducing runway requlrements aj-r-
v e r t l c a l - rl sl ng we do not expect
al rcraft-to hav6 m or e- or tstandlng m llltar y char ac -
terlstlcs th a n con ve n tl on a L types.
r
l/ -6
Attaehment
- 2-
Slnce the Sdnnaly glrres flgqres of Yl for the Unlsrowncases ln
L95T-I954, md onLv fi for the Udmown cases Ln 1955 (up to I'{ay 5), tt
ls evltlent that persons not harrlng the firl-l reporb avallable would not
Iorou that fl. to M. of the cases had been left as Unlcrown in the naln
study. The fuimary absolutely fail-s to quote gII nurerical results for
L9/v7--I952. Ornemay surrise that the Alr Force did not want the pubIlc
to licrow that such a hlgh percentage of the reports rernained Unlrror,m, and
that this was one reason for nsking the fu11 repor'u unavailable, for all
practlcal pur-Doses,to the pub1lc.
tZl What ls the 'neanlng and purpose of the Chl Square test (pages &'-76
of the orlginal ed.ltion) ?
The paragraph at the bottom of page 6O and top of page 61 (orig. ed.)
explaJ.ns the purpose of the rrChi Squaren test, and the statlstlcal theory
lnvolvod ls d.escribed on page 61. The reason for maklng thj-s test was
slrnply thisr The author(s) of the report felt that lt mtght be possible
to show by thls test that the Unknolrn cases were realIy Just llke the
Knornaeases, after all. If this could be shomr, it would then have been
slryIe to say that the Urrlrror,rnshad been essentlally the same.'obJects as
the Knorms, and there would bave been no residual tfunknownttt)pe of obJect
(tlftying saucertf) to talk about.
(a) The author(s) founa only twelve cases reported, in enough detail to
T merit conslderatlon. Anyone who has fol1or^red the subJect knows of
f naqy other cases of detailed sightlngs which would selrre as we11r or
V better, than the dozen selected for the Blue Book analysi-s.
(U) In d.iscussing these twelve detailed cases, the report ornits detall-s
such as the names of the localities and other identifylng information
which there is absclutlly no reason to r.,rithhold. The reason for thls
may be to try to hinder readers who rnlght want to compare other ver-
sions of those same eases r,rith the versl-ons presented @ the report.
(") The sketches of the obJects ln the fuport have a certaln studied
awlorardness about then, as lf the arbist had been lnstrlcted to nake
the obJects look as different as posslble and as queer as possible.
For exarryle, the sketch of Case III resembles two frankfurters lying
one across the otber. The arbist ls certainly a skllled draftsman;
the shading v€ry clearly shows the cyllndrlcal- shapes of the franlc-
furters. Yet the descriptlon given by the pilots in Case III speci-
fles nan afuplane with a ciga:s-shaped body and stralgbt wingsn.
T?ris sketch ls absurd as an illustratlon of that. Llko'dse, the
stuange whlte narkings or openings on the Case IX sketches have no
relation to tbe accoryarying tert.
(a) The failure to place the sketches of Case V-I and Case \IJII on the
same psge hid.es a very remarkable resemblsrtc@o
(") The key to the situatlon is forrnd ln the extra conditions throrm ln
at the mid.dl-eof page 9t (or18.). Presrunably all- trrel-ve cases had
fulfilled such conditions or they wouId not have surrlved the weed.ing-
out process. (See p. ??, orig.).- The prlze example is paragrapb (6)
on page $2. By throwlng case trl-I out at thls golnt, the author(s)
wer-. {hen able to throw out Case I|JII ln par. (8), slnee the nateh be-
tween these tnro sketches had been lost by ellninating Caso fl. Like-
wlse, Case III uas ellmlnated because Case II hail been thrown out.
tsl were the author(s) justified on page 93 (orlg.) in saying
the following?
The logical \
erzor here may be seen ln the paranhrase cf the a oove ----t I
quotation: rr l.Ie found many different ty,oes of saucers. l.ie could not find I{ /
just one class. We could not find even cne class. I'herefcre, we c:u-l-C Ix
not flnd rnore than one class. n rhis type of reasoning, in wirich the l
author(s) of the Blue Book report indulged, is utterly'absurli.
t5] what are the lrnportant polnts in tho trconclusionsn on p. 9r+ (orlg.)?
The author(s) adn:it in the first sentence that they cannot }rrcve that
trflying saucersrt In the last sentenee, they Jo not d.eny
d.o not e>dst.
that saucers corrld. be novel governmgntal devices, ncw existing. \iowhere
is there any discussion as to whether or not there is evidence to prove or
disprove that saucers nlght be erbraterrestrlal objects or devieee.
Lll t,lhat vitally inrportant technical aspect was cnitted from thr: nna'l'nsi s
by the Blue Book Project?
t8] l^lhat sigrificant change was mad.ein the categories provlded for final
ldentifications, before the final report r^rasrritten and issued Qr the Air
Force?
After read.ing the BIue Book Report r"rhich starts on the next page, lf
you feel a desira to see the coryJ-ete set of tables and graphs (onltted
here for reasons of cost) r Iotr nright try to bortour a coplt of the full-
report fron the Air Foree. Wr{.te to the Secretaqy of the Ai-r Force,
Pentagon Bu:llding, Washington 25, D.C., and ask for one of the loan copies
of Blue Book Special- Reporb No. I{.
If, after readlng the report as glven here, you feeJ- that the Alr
Force should be able to glve a definite an$.ter to such specific questlons
as rfDo flrving objects of-(such and^such) shape e>dst?', ioo ntght wr{.te
to your Congnessm"nor Senator, or to the President of the United States,
and ask hLs asstbance ln obtalning the answer to your specl-flo question
from the Alr Force.
U'
'1 '"
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(ANALY$S OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBTECTS)
P RO J E CT NO . I O O 7 3
5 M AY r 955
vii
SUMMARY
I
I N T R O D U C T ION
3
O R I G I N A N D NAT URE Or . DAT A
4
R E D U C T IO N OF DATA TO M ECIIANIZED COM PU T AT ION F OR M
4
Q ue sti onnair e . .
6
C o d i ng System and W or k Sheet
7
Id e n ti fication of W or king Paper s.
IO
Evaluation of Individual Reports . .
l4
A N A L Y S IS OF THE DATA .
la
F req u ency and Per centage Distr ibutions by C har ac ter i s ti c s
lo
Gr aphical Pr esentation . .
l6
Advanced Study of the Data
l6
Position of the Sun Relative to the Obs er v er .
60
Statistical Chi Squar e Test
ao
T he "Flying Saucer " M odel
94
C ON C L U S IO NS
255
A P P E N D IX B. W ORKING PAPER FORM S
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
zl
F i g u re5 D i str ibutionofobjectSightingsbyEvaluationlt/it hi nM onths for Al l Year s
111
LIS T OF ILLU STR A TION S
( C onti nued)
Page
F i gu re I 7 Distr ibution of AII Sightings by Ob s er v er Loc ati on for AII Year s and Eac h y ear . . 33
1 8 Com par ison of Known and Unknom Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by C ol c r , 1947- 1952 34
t 9 Com par ison of Known and Unknom Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by N um ber of Obj ec ts
per Sighting, 1947- 1952 35
F i g u re Z0 Com par ison of Known and Unknow n Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by Speed, 1947- 1952 36
F i gu re Zl Com par ison o{ Known and Unknown Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by D ur ati on, l 94T - 1952 37
F i gu re 22 Com par ison of Known and Unknown Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by Shape, L947- 1952 38
F i g u re 23 Com par ison of Known and Unknown Obj ec t Si ghti ngs by Li ght Br i ghtnes s , 1947- L952 39
F i g u re 24 Com par ison of M onthly Distr ibution of Obj ec t Si ghti ngs Ev al uated as As tr onom i c al
Ver sus Total Object Sightings Les s As tr onom i c al . 40
F i g u re Z5 Com par ison of M onthly Distr ibution o{ Obj ec t Si ghti ngs Ev al uated as Ai r c r aft
Ver sus Total Object Sightings Le s s Ai r c r aft 4t
F i g u re 26 Com par ison of M onthly Distr ibution of Obj ec t Si ghti ngs Ev al uated as Bal l oon
Ver sus Total Object Sightings Le s s Bal l oon, 4Z
F i g u re Z7 Com par ison of M onthly Distr ibution of Obj ec t Si ghti ngs Ev al uated as Ins u- ffi c i ent
Infor m ation Vdr sus Total Object Si ghti ngs Les s Ins uffi c i ent Infor m ati on . 43
F i gu re 28 Com par ison oI M onthly Distr ibution of Obj ec t Si ghti ngs Ev al uated as Other
Ver sus Total Object Sightings Le s s Other
F i g u re 2p Com par ison of M onthly Distr ibution of Obj ec t Sightings Evaluated as Unknom
Ver sus Total Object Sightings Les s U nk now n 45
F i gu re 30 Char acter istics Pr o{ iles of Object Si ghti ngs by T otal Sam pl e, Know n Ev al uati ons ,
and Individual Known Evaluations, Wi.th Unknom Evaluations Supe rimpos ed . . 46
F i g u re 3l Fr equency of Object, Unit, and All Si ghti ngs W i thi n the g. S., 1947- t952, by
Subdivisions of One Degree of Latitude and Longitude
F i g u re 32 Distr ibution of Object Sightings by Ev al uati on for the T w eLv e R egi onal Ar eas of
the U, S., W ith the Str ategic Ar e as Loc ated . 48
F i g u re 33 c om par ison of Evaluation of objec t s i ghti ngs i n the s tr ategi c Ar eas of the
Centr al East Region 49
F i g u re 34 c om par ison of Evaluation of object s i ghti ngs i n the s tr ategi c Ar eas of the
Centr al M i.dwest Region 50
1\/
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Page
)b
F i g u re 39 Diagr am of a Celeetial Spher e.
T ab l e I Object Sightings 60
UI Chi Squar e Test of Knom s Ver eus U nk nom e- on the Bas i s of N um ber 63
T ab l e
Table IV Chi Square Test of Knoms Veraua Unknoms on t]le Basis of Shape 64
T ab l e V Chi Square Test of Knoms Versus Unknoms on the Baeie of Duration of Observation . of
T ab l e V II chi square Test of Knoms vergus unknoms on the Basie of Light Brightness bI
chi square Test of Revised Knoms vergus unknoms on the Basig of color 70
Table VIII
chi square Test of Revised Knoms Versus Unknoms on the Bagia of Number. 7l
Table IX
7Z
T ab l e X ChiSquar eTeetofRevieedKnom gVer e us U n}nom eontheBas i s ofShape
Analysis of the refined and evaluated data derived frorn the original
reports of sightings consisted of (t) a systematic atternpt to ferret out any
distinguishing chaiacteristics inherent in the data of any of their segrnents,
(Z) concentrated study of any trend or pattern found, and (3) an atternpt
^
to deterrnine the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represent observa-
tions of technologic-al developrnents not known to this country.
The first step in the analysis of the data revealed the existence of
certain apparent sirnilarities between cases of objects definitely identified
and those not identified. Statistical rnethods of testing when applied indicated
a low probability that these apparent sirnilarities were significant. An
atternpt to deterrnine the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represented
observations of technological developrnents not known to this country necessi-
tated a thorough re-exarnination and re-evaluation of the cases of objects not
originally identified; this led to the conclusion that this probability was very
srnall.
v11
with the year L952. In these charts , 3ZOL cases have been used.
The I953 and L954 cases show a general and expected trend of
increasing percentages in the finally identified categories. -Jhey also show
decreasin! p..."rttages in categories where there was insufficient inforrna-
tion and those wherJthe phenornena could not be explained. This trend had
been anticipated in the light of irnproved reporting and investigating pro-
cedures "
Aircraft 20To
Astronornical 2SYu
Other - 13%
Insu{ficient Info
Unknown
This new prograrn, which had begun to show rnarked results before
January 1955, providlea prirnarily that the 4602d Air Intelligence Service
Squadron (Air Oefense Cornrnand) would carry out all field investigations.
This squad.ron has sufficient units and is so deployed as to be able to arrive
Iton the spotrtwithin a very short tirne after a report is rece,ived- After
treatrneni Uy tf,. 4602d AISS, all inforrnation is supplied to the Air Technical
Intelligence Center for final evaluation. This cooperative prograrn has re-
sultedi sinc e I January I955, in reducing the insufficient inforrnation cases
to 77c and the unknown cases to 3lo, of the totals
The periocl I January 1955 to 5 May 1955 accounted for l3l unidentified
aerial objeci reports received- Evaluation percentages of these are as follows:
v111
Balloons - 26To
Aircraft - ZT'IO
Astronornical - 237o
Other - Z0%
Unknown - 3Yo
A11 available data were included in this study which was prepared by
x,no,
a panel of scientists both in and out of the Air Force. On the basis of this
is belieygd thst .1!1,thg u4identified..aerial o-Hse.€-*c6!:1d'htt*;'t-.'e'n
- .*-q4v-it.
- 9l-n_llingd if rno:9, co+pLete,,obs,s,r.v1!iena_l.da$a.
ha.4beg{r.qvqilablp., . .Insofar
as the reported aerial objects which still rernain unexpiairred are conc-rned,
there exists little inforrnation other than the irnpressions and interpretations
of their observers. As these irnpressions and interpretations havs been
replaced b-y the use of irnproved rnethods of investigation and reporting, and
by scientific analysis, the nurnber of unexplained cises has decieased-""pidly
towards the vanishing point.
1'<
XHIBIT B8
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thern was subrnitted by serious..peo"ol"e.r..gt_.y-sJiii:"9,"hy,Xla!.t-tteV,nad and
3
IZ
f or get t ing th e s u b j e c ti v i ty o f th e data at the ti rne that concl usi ons are
dr awn f r or n th e a n a l y s i s . It rn u st be ernphasi zed, agai n and agai n, that a ny
c onc lus ions c o n ta i n e d i n th i s re port are based N OT on facts, but on w hat
m any obs erv e rs th o u g h t a n d e s ti rnated the true facts to be.
Que s tionnaire
(1) A modified Air Force Form 112 pertinent questionsto be answered in regard to an uniderttificd-objcct
sighting.
reportiug, and
(2) Air Force Letter 200-5 places responsibiliry with the Air Force f o r d r e i n v e s t i g a t i o n ,
analysis of unidentified aerial objects. This letter is dated 29 A p r i l 1 9 5 2 .
future, it was irnperative to develop a questionnaire forrn listing the factors
necessary for evaluation of the observer and his report, and identification
of the unknown objects. In addition, it was decided that such a questionnaire
should be designed to serve as an interrogatorrs guide, and as a forrn for
the observer hirnself to cornplete when personal interrogation was not possi-
ble or practicable.
The rnaster coding plan was evolved during the early stages of the
prelirninary analysis of data, and was reviewed by the panel of consultants
before use. It was recognized that this systern of coding would be the
heart of the analysis, that is, the cornpleteness o{ the facility for trans-
lation of data could rnake or break the study. Accordingly, every conceiv-
able factor that rnight influence the identification of unidentified aerial
objects was included, together with a wide range of variations within each
factor. The original coding systern (with rninor corrections) was used
throughout the translation of the original data with rnarked success. A copy
of this systern, called CODES, is enclosed as Exhibit B4, Appendix B.
After the analysis was under wayr it becarne apParent that the rne-
chanics of rnachine processi ng could be irnproved by incorporating in the
IBM card systern grouP classifications of certain factors requiring rnore
than one colurnn for discrete expression. In addition, the inclusion of
certain data relating to the evaluation and bearing of the sun with respect
to the observer was considered necessary. Finally, a critical exarnination
of certain segrnents of the data indicated the need for the definition of a
new factor relating to the rnaneuvers of the object or objects sighted'
a corn-
Prior to the start of the analytical study, it had been assurned that
rnaneuver pattern'
bination of stated factors would, by inference, define the
While this scherne would serve to identify any individual sighting, identifi-
cation of each report and its subsequent forrns was necessary. The rninor
subserial nurnbers (two digits) fulfiiled this requirernent. For all SINGLE
OBSERVATIONS, a rnajor serial nurnber followed by two (Z) zeros, for
exarnple, 2759.00, was sufficient identification. For MULTIPLE OBSER-
VATIONS, the rnajor serial nurnber followed by a series of two-digit nurrr-
bers ranging frorn 00 to 99 was used to identify the individual reports. In
general, the rnost cornplete report frorn the rnost reliable observer of that
MULTIPLE OBSERVATION was identified with ttre .00 subserial nurnber
As an exarnple, a MULTIPLE OBSERVATION consisting of six sighting
reports would have the following serial nurnbers:
9
F or r n a c h i n e rn a n i p u l a ti o n , i t w as desi rabl e to be abl e to sel ect the
s ar nple of c a rd s (a l l re p o rts , a l l si ghti ngs, or al l phenornena) to be i n-
c luded in a p a rti c u l a r s tu d y . T h e concept of a S IGH TIN G ID E N TIFIC A TION
NUM B E R w a s e v o l v e d to fi l l th i s desi re. U si ng one col urrl n of the IB M
c ar d, and t h e c o rre l a te d w o rk i n g papers, the code for thi s functi on w as
d ev eloped. Mu l ti p l e p u n c h i n g e l irni nated the need to use several col urnns
for dis c r et e e x p re s s i o n o f th e v a ri ati ons. S el ecti on of the proper nurnber
i n t his c olurn n th u s p e rrn i tte d s e lecti on of the desi red sampl e of cards.
B a Il o o n
A s tro n o rn i cal
A i rc ra f t
L i g h t p h enornenon
B i rd s
Clouds, dust, etc.
In s u ffi c i e nt i nformati on
P s y c h o l o gi c al rnani fe s tati ons
Unknown
Oth e r
T he f i rs t s te p the deducti on
i n e v a l u a ti o n , of di screte facts f rorn
s ubjec t iv e d a ta , re q u i re d c e rta i n cal cul ati ons based on the i nformati on
av ailable in th e s i g h ti n g re p o rt. A n exarnpl e w as the fi ndi ng of the approxi -
r nat e angula r v e l o c i ty a n d a c c e l e rati on of the obj ect or obj ects si ghted.
Car e was t a k e n d u ri n g th i s p h a s e of the w ork to i nsure agai nst the deduc-
tion of dis c re te fa c ts n o t w a rra n ted by the ori gi nal data. Thus, even
t hough t her e w a s a c o rn p l e te l a c k of any val i d evi dence consi sti ng of
t?
physical rnatter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object, this
was not assurned to be prirna facie evidence thattrflying saucersrrdid not
exist.
The second step in evaluation, the rating of the observer and his
report, Iogically followed the first step, the reduction of the data to usable
forrn. Ratinss were assipoed on the basis of tk;[g[ry;-+g""lggJp-*:.**91.*._:_.-_
*-**-e,w
forrnatiSn, considered in relation to one another:
**T;;;;;;;;;;;;;fr.rnhis
d
o c c u p a ti o n , aget a nd trai ni ng;
I n th e c o d i n g s y s te rn , the choi ces provi ded for fi nal i denti fi cati ons
wer e ba s e d o n A T IC t s p re v i ous experi ence i n anal ysi s of the data. They
had f oun d th a t th e rn a j o ri ty of si ghti ngs coul d be cl assi fi ed as rni si nterpr e-
t at ions o f c o rn rn o n o b j e c ts o r natural phenornena. A ccordi ngl y, catego r ies
f or obje c ts rn o s t fre q u e n tl y present i n the ai r w ere provi ded. B al l oons,
air c r af t , a s tro n o rn i c a l b o d i e s (such as rneteors), bi rds, and cl ouds or dust
wer e recognized a s rn a j o r c a tegori es. The l ess frequent, but cornrnon
objec t s , s u c h a s k i te s , fi re w orks, fl ares, rockets, contrai l s, and
ll
were collected into a
rneteorological phenornena like srnall tornadoesr
category ..ti"a OTHER. A separate category for the uncornrnon natural
such as rnirages'
phenornena associated with light reflections or refractions'
ice'
sun dogs, inversion-layer irnages, and distortions caused by airborne
categories for
was established with the title of LIGHT PHENOMENON.
INSUFFICIENTINFORMATIoN'PSYCHoLOGICALMANIFESTATIONS'and
not be fitted into the
UNKNOWN were provided for the sightings that could
An expLanation of their use follows:
preceding identifications.
INSUFFICIENTINFORMATIoN-Thisidentificationcategory
was assrgned to a report when, uPon final con-
sideration, there was sorne essential itern of
inforrnation rnissing, or there was enough
doubtaboutwhatdatawereavailabletodisallow
identification as a cornrrlon object or sorne
natural phenornenon. It is ernphasized that this
categgry of identification was not used as a
convenient way to dispose of what rnight be
called "poor un-knowns'r, but as a category for
reports that, perhaps, could have been one of
several known objects or natural phenornena'
NoreportsidentifiedasINSUFFICIENTINFoRMA-
TION contain authenticated facts or irnpressions
concerning the sighting that would prevent its
being identified as a known object or phenorrlenon;
,'hy
h a d b e e n overdraw n. R el i gi ous fanati ci srnt
d e s i re for publ i ci ty, or an over-acti ve i rnagi -
n a ti o n were the rnost cornl rl on rnental aber-
ra ti o n s causi ng thi s type of report;
il'
-
assigned to those reports of si ghti ngs w herei n
th e d e s c ri pti on of the obj ect and i ts rnaneuvers
c o u l d not be fi tted to the pattern of any know n
object or P henornenon.
were
For the purposes of this study, two groups of identifications
categories except the
recognized, tne f<NOWNS (including all identification
UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS.
Allpossibleidentificationsprovidedinthecodesystern,except
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION and UNKNOWN, could be assigned accord-
ing to two degrees of certainty, designated 'rcertain't and "Doubtful'r'
tz
S e e N ote a t Botton of Page Xl+.
x1 *AtrIR 2O(L2
l-5
INTELLIGENCE
Unidentified Flying Objects Reporting (Short Title: UFOB)
Po,ragraph
Purpose and Scope--- I
l Definitions ------------- 2
Objectives 3
Reiponsibility 4
I
G uidanc e- - - - - - - - - - - - - 5
ZI Collection 6
Reporting 7
EvidencJ---- 8
Releaseof Facts------ I
l. Purpoee and Scope. This Regulation es- (2) The possibilitv exists that an air ve-
^procedures hicle- of revoiutionary configuration
tablishes fdr reporting lnformation
and evidence pertaining to unidentified flying may be developed.
objects and scts forth the responsibility of Air (3) The reporting of all pertinent faetors
Force activities in this regard. It applies to all rvill have a direct bearing on the suc-
Air Force activities. cess of the technical analysis.
2. Definitiong: 4. Responsibility:
a. Unidentified Flyins Objects (UFOB)- a. Reporting. Commanders of Air Force
Relates to any airborne object which by perform- activities will report all information and evidenee
ance, aerodynamic charaeteristics, or unusual that may eome to their attention, including that
features doesnot conform to any presently known received-from adjacent commands of the other
aircraft or missile type, or which cannot be services and from civilians.
positively identified as a familiar object.
b. Inuestigation. Air Defense Command
b. Familiar Objects-Include balloons, as- will conduct all field investigations within the
tronomical bodies, birds, and so forth. ZI, to determine the identity of any UFOB.
3. Objectivee. Air Force interest in unidenti- e. Analusis. The Air Teehnical Intelligence
'Wright-Patterson
fied flying objects is twofold: First as a possible Center (ATIC), Air Force
threat to the security of the United States and Base, Ohio, will analyze and evaluate: All in-
its forees, and secondly, to determine technical formation and evidence reported within lhe Zl
aspects involved. after the Air Defense Command has exhausted
all efforts to identify the UFOB; and all informa-
a. Air Defense. To date, the flying objects
tion and evidence eollected in oversea areas.
reported have imposed no threat to the security
of the United States and its Possessions.How- d. Cooperation. All activities will cooperate
ever, the possibility that new air vehicles, hostile with Air Defense Command representatives to
aircraft or missiles may first be regarded as flying insure the economical and prompt successof an
objects by the initial observer is real. This re- investigation, ineluding the furnishing of air and
quires that sighiings be reported rapidly and as ground transporiation, when feasible.
cbmpletely as information permits.
5. Guidanee. The thoroughness and quality
b. Technical. Analysis thus far has failed
of a renort or investigation into incidents of un-
to provide a satisiaetory explanation for a num- identifled flying objects are limited only by the
bef of sightings reported. The Air Foree will resourcefulness and imagination of the person
eontinue to collect and analyze reports until all responsiblefor preparing the report. Guidance
sightings can be satisfactorily explained,bearing set forth below is based on experience and has
in mind that:
been found helpful in evaluating incidents:
(1) To me&sure scientific advances, the
a. Theodolite measurements of changes of
Air Force must be informed on experi-
azimut,hanrl clevation and angular size.
ment.ation and development of new
air vehicles. b. Interception, identification, or air search
+Tlris Regularion supereedesAFR 2OO-2,26 August 1953, including Change 200-2A, 2 NovemLer 1953.
AFR 2fi)-2
J-l
XZ
action. These actions may be taken if appro- submitted-additional data is required which
priate and within the scopeof existing air defense can be developedmore economicallyby the
regulations. nearest Air Force activity, srlch as: narrative
statements,sketches,rnarked maps, charts, and
c. Contact with local aircraft control and appropriate
so forth. Under suchcircumstances,
warning (AC&W) units, ground observationcorps commanders will be contactedby the 4602dAISS.
(GOC) posts and filter centers,pilots and crews
of aircraft aloft at the time and place of sighting c. Direct communicationbetween echelons
whenever feasible, and any other personsor or- of the 4602d AISS and Air Force acfivities is
ganizationswhieh may have factual data bearing authorized.
6n the UFOB or may-be able to offer corroborat- 7. Reporting. All information relating to
ing evidence,electronic or otherwise"
d. Consultation with military or civilian
UFOB'swill be reportedpromptly. The method
(electricalor written) and priority of dispatch I
weather forecastersto obtain data on: Tracks will be selectedin accordance with the apparent I
of rveather balloons released in the area, since intelligencevalue of the information. In most
these often 6rs ls."ponsiblefor sightings; and any instances,reports will be made by electrical
unusuai meteorologicalactivity which may have means: Information over 24 hours old will be
a bearing on the UFOB. given a "deferred"precedence.Reportsover 3
e. Consultation with astronomersin the area days old will be madeby written report prepared
to determine s'hether any astronomical body or on AF Form 112, Air Intelligence Information
nhenomenonwould account for or have a bearing Report, and AF Form 1"12a,Supplementto AF
bn the observation. Form 112.
f. Contact with military and civilian tower a. Addressees:
operators, air operations offices,and so-forth, to (l) ElectricalReports. All electricalre-
d^etermine whether the sighting could be the ports will be multiple addressed to:
result of rnisidentifieation of known aircraft. (a) Commander,Air Defense Com-
g. Contact with persons who might have mand, Ent Air Force Base, Colo-
knowiedee of experimental aircraft of unusrral rado Springs,Colorado.
configuration, roiket and guided missile firings, (b) Nearest Air Division (Defense).
and so forth, in the area. (For ZI only.)
(c) Commander,Air TechnicalIntelli-
6. ZI Collection. The Air Defense Commancl genceCenter,Wright-PattersonAir
has a direct interest in the facts pertaining to Force Base,Ohio.
UFOB's reported within lhe Zl and has, in the (d) Directorof Intelligence, Headquar-
4602d Air Intelligence ServiceSquadron (AISS), tersUSAF,Washington25,D. C.
the capabiiity to investigate these reports. The (2) Written Reports:
4602d AISS is composed6f specialistslrained for
fie1d collection and investigation of matters of
(a) Within lhe ZI, reportswill be sub-
air intellisence interest which oecur within the mitted direct to the Air Defense
ZI. This iquarlron is highly mobile and deployed Command. Air DefenseCommand
throughout the ZI as follows: Flights are at- will reproducethe report and dis-
tachecl to air defense divisions, detachments are tribute it to interestedZI intelli-
attached to each of the defense fotces, and the genceagencies.The original rcport
souadron headquarters is located at Peterson together with notation of the dis-
Ficld, Colorado, adjacent to Headquarters, Air tribution effectedthen will be for-
Defense Command. Air Force activities, there- wardedto the Director of Intelli-
fore, should establish and maintain liaison with gence,HeadquartersUSAF, Wash-
the nearest element of this squadron. This can ington 25, D. C.
be accomplished by contacting the appropriate (b) Outsidelhe ZI, reportswill be sub-
echelon of the Air Defense Command as outlined mitted directto Director of Intelli-
above. gence,HeadquartersUSAF, Wash-
ington 25, D. C. as prescribedin
a. All Air Force activities are authorized to
conduct such preliminary investigation as may "fnteliigence Collection fnstruc-
be required for reporting purposes; however, in-
tions" GCI), June 7954.
vestigations should not be earried beyond this b. SltortTitle. "IIFOB" will appearat the
point, unless such action is requested by the beginningof the text of electrieaimessagcs and
ltss.
+ooza in the subject of written reports.
b. On occasions-after initial reports are c. Negatiue Data. The word "negative"
{l
v?J
/\ AF.R 200-2
a{
in reply to any numbered item of the report (5) Locations of obsen'er(s). Exact iati-
forrnat \a'ill indicate that all loeical leads were tude and Iongitude of each observer,
develope-dwithout success. The phrase "not or Georef position, or position with
applicable" (N/A) s'ill indicate that the question reference to a known landmark.
doesnot apply to the sighting being investigated. (6) Identifying information of all ob-
d. Report Format. Reports will include the SC IVC I{SI:
following numtrered items: (a) Civilian-Name, age, mailing ad-
(1 ) D e s c ri p ti o n o f th e o b j e c t(s): dress, occupation.
(a ) S h a p e . (b) Military-Name, grade, organiza-
(b) Size compared to a known object tion, duty, and estimate of reli-
ability.
! (use one of the foilowing terms:
Head of a pin, pea, dirne, nickel, (7) Weather and winds-aloft conditions
Orrrcre.r,: N. F. TWINING
Chief ol Stafi, United StatesAir Force
K. E. THIEBAUD
Colonel,USAF
Aii Adjutant General
DISTRIBUTON:
S; X:
ONI, Department of the Navy 200
G-2, Departmentof the Army 10
A NA L Y S I S O F T HE DA T A
judicious
Broadly stated, the problern at this point consisted of the
the sub-
application of scientific rnethods of categorizing and analyzing
jective data in reports of sightings of unidentified aerial objects. It was
by a sys-
recog.rized that an approac h to this problern could best be rnade
give frequency and percentage
ternatic sorting and tabulation Prograln to
of the irnportant characteristics of sightings. A suggestion
distributions
all questions that rnight be asked in
that an atternpt be rnade to anticipate
provide answers'
the future about a sighting or a group of sightings, and to
was rejected. The systernatic approach also rnade it possible to develop
included in
a detailed reference rnanual of the attributes of the sightings
this studY.
Also,itwasanticipatedthatanypatternsortrendsthatrnightbe
in the hope of discovering
found could be subjected to concentrated study
of ttflying saucers"'
significant inforrnation relating to the characteristics
as certain of the
Further, it was believed that these trends could serve
in the atternpt to
criteria of validity for any concepts (rnodels) developed
ttflying saucers'r'
discover a class of
the availability of
The original conception of this study assurned
physical appearancer trraneuver
sufficient data to describe adequately the
characteristics, range, direction, and probable path of the object or
during the
objects observed. H-owe',ret, f"t riliarity with the data, acquired
l4
translation and transcription frorn reports to punched cards, indicated that
there would be relatively few specific variables or factors that would yield
rneaningful correlation studie s. ***hSg-*Ue*oJ.igf**?1..4_-+_1"1-lt"*t*g*1*r,.g**"**!j*e;:
e
:Sp___q"-rJs",rv.-p...s1d""F""e",Ll-e"!rsJ:--r*e*{g9
.3iJtu^.-.os-th€*i,!a#.g]p]"9:"e_::::..ot ".1hS.*.q*igi_m],
the sarnple of a specific*Variable.
angle of elevation of
The first thing that was done was to calculate the
north as seen by the
the sun above the horizon and its bearing frorn true
\Mith this inforrnation, it could then
observer at the tirne of each sighting.
the reported object
be deterrnined whether there was a possibility that
In addition, it could be
could have been illurninated by light frorn the sun.
(sun dog) or whether
deterrnined whether an obj ect could be a rnock sun
an aircraft at the posi-
there was a possibility of specular reflection frorn
of a'rflying disc'r'
tion of the object, which would give the appearance
Aprograrnofcornputationwassetupandcarriedouttoobtainthe
sighting' A11 inforrna-
angle of elevation and the bearing of the sun for each
deck of IBM cards'
tion needed for this calculation was available on the
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FIG U R E E D IS TR IB U T I o No F o B J E c T S | G HT | NG s B Y S I G HT | N G
R E LIA B | LI T Y o n o u p s w| T HE V A L UA T | o ND| S T RI BU T |o N S
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PROFILESOF OBJECTSIGHTINGS
F I G U RE 30 C H A R A C T E R ISTICS BY
TOTALSAMPLE,KNOWNEVALUATIONS, AND KNOWN
INDIVIDUAL
EVALUATIONS, WITH UNKNOWNEVALUATIONS SUPERIMPOSED
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48
This inforrnation consisted of:
Using the date and tirne of the observation, the longitude and declina-
tion (S) of the sun were obtained frorn an epherneris of the sun and corrected
for the equation of tirne. The difference between the longitudes of the sun
and the observer was taken, and called the hour angle (F{A on Figu}e 39).
Then, using the declination of the sun (S), the latitude of the observer
(tat), and the hour angle (EA), the angle (Zg) U.t*een the observerts zenith
and the sun can be calculated frorn the law of cosines of spherical trigo-
nornetry. Thus, cos ZS = cos (90 - lat) cos (90 - S) + sin (90 - lat) sin
(go - s) cos (FIA).
Since the angle ZS is rneasured frorn the observerr s zenith, the angle
of elevation of the sun above the horizon for daytirne sightings was found by
taking gO -re. When the sun was below the horizon, the angle of depres-
sion of the sun below the horizon was found by taking B - gO.
Having found the angle ZS, tt.e bearing of the sun (angle B) was ob-
tained frorn the forrnula:
sin (B) _
sin (90 - S)
A11 of the above calculations were rnade with IBM equiprnent. Sines,
cosines, and their inverses were obtained frorn a deck of 9r 000 IBM cards
on which seven-place Petert s tables of the sines, cosines, and tangents of
angles had been punched for each 0.01 of a degree frorn 0 to 90 degrees.
o
T
?b
Lz
q, gE
.2 dlo
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-e o ou,
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@ bH
65
3 frts
' 39
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rt ct $t ol L
Thus, there are only two inferences to be rnade frorn this histograrn:
(t) ttre high peak of sightings soon after sunset, and (2) the lack of increase
in the UNKNOWNS relative to the KNOWNS near either sunset or sunrise.
This would seern to discount the possibility that atrnospheric phenornena
such as rnock suns were the prirnary cause of the unknown reports, since
such phenornena usually occur when the sun is near the horizon.
The Local Sun Tirne was cornputed as a step in the calculation of the
angle of elevation of the sun. It is related to the hour anglg by the equation:
Local Sun Tirne (r-.s.T.) = IlA/15 + 12.00, where L.S-T. is in hours and
FIA in degrees.
The cards were then broken up into seven groups on the basis of the
angle of elevation of the sun, as follows:
TA B L E I O B J E CT S I G HT I NG S
B alloon r56 L7 z8 83 40 az
A s tr onornic al 5Z 6 43 236 ll8 96
A irc r aft 187 z3 49 144 60 5Z
Light phenornena 8 z 4 z5 7 00
Insuffic ie nt inf orrnation 7Z LZ z6 76 28 z0
UNKNOWN 134 T4 z5 I50 86 67
Other 64 8 tz 50 36 37
In the rneantirne, rnirror graphs had been constructed frorn the fre-
quency tabulations which seerned to show that, when the KNOWNS (total less
UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS were grouped according to one of six
characteristics, the percentage of KNOWNS and the percentage of
60
UNKNOWNS in each characteristic group showed the sarne general trend.
In other words, on the basis of these graphs, it looked as though there was
a good possibility that the UNKNOWNS were no different frorn the KNOWNS,
in the aggregate. It was decided to investigate this by the use of a
"ll.""t |tChi Square Testrr.
statistical procedure called the
The Chi Square Test is a statistical test of the likelihood that two
distributions corne frorn the sarne population, that is, it gives the proba-
bility that there is no difference in the rnake-up of the two distributions
being r rleasured.
(I)ThecharacteristicswhichwereobservedfortheUNKNoWNS
weredifferentfrornthoseobservedfortheKNowNsbecause
or because of
of the psychological rnake-up of the observer
This assurnes the distribution of
atrnoslheric distortion.
same'
objects in KNOlffNS and UNKNOWNS is the
(2)TheUNKNoWNSrnaybeknownobjectsindifferentpropor-
(That'is' a
tions than the group identified as KNOIiINS'
of the UNKNOWNS could be aircraft
,greater percentage
iclentified KNowNS')
than the percentage of aircraft in the
(l) Color
(zl Nurnber
a greater proportion of
The large chi square is due to
classification. Apparently
UNKNOWNS in the rnultiple objeci
these are harder to identifY'
( 3) Shape
of UNKNOWNS
ln this caser there is a higher Percentage
classification' These rnight
in the rocket-aircraft-shape
rnaneuvers were
be farniliar objects for which unusual
reported.
68
(4) Duration of observation
(5) Speed
It will be noted that sorne groups were cornbined when the adjusted
nurnber of KNOWNS was ten or less, except for the case for which the
nurnber of objects per sighting was the characteristic studied. These were
borderline cases, and no good cornbination of groups existed. li
69
4+
AnotherinterestingasPectofthesenewtestsisthatthereareonly
twolargediscrepanciesinallofthegrouPs.Theseareforthellormoresighting and for the
by numbe-r of object3 P€r
groups in the classification
over40o-mPhandmeteor-likegrouPfortheclassificationbyspeed.The sightingr
[y aetetion of the astronomical
first was relatively unchangea
of sightings in the singlc-object
principally because of the Joncentration
catesory.Thesecondwasslightlyincreasedbytheremovalofthcactro-However' the main
meieor-like classification'
nomical sightings f rom the
discrepancy,thatofthee*..""ofUNKNowNsintheover-40O-mPhclasl'
was little changed'
/- rclusive since they neither confirm
r r..^-a
arthough
xisowNS,
unidentiriea
tr t "", o.:;",ff;ll:"
-m;lT':":T"i::i:n,
!lithey<loindicatethatrelativelyferrroftheUNKNowNsareactuallyastro-
i nomical Phenomena'
I
I + 'ed to its logical
process would not be carrr
7* lt was clecicled that this
conclusron(th:rtis,thedeterminationofalinearcombinationofKNoWNS
thatwotrldgivcirnegligiblechi"q'.ore.whencomparedwiththeUNKNoWNS)' a distorted
felt that the inaccuracies in the reports would give
since it was
;rtrcl nre;rningless result'
A d ju s t e d
Nurnber of Nurnber of
KNOWNS (K)
Nurnber of
UNKNoWNS (n)
,*Ili'
Color KNOWNS
Degreee of freedom 8
5% r 5 .5
r% 2 0 .I
5To 9.5
lTo 13. 3
6z 63
:ai E,
F
a
Lrj
:tr
F
z
o CN
E
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(9
. 96
=
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:* o
s6
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(t, .9 .9
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{g ED '
- o- i1t j-
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is o -OO
c O9E o=
3c o
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5N i5
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6T
U)r
(EO
(t'
f
> lrJ
OF
( JF
F
ro
Ld
gc
)
(9
l!
shape
Nurnber
KNowNs
of
Adjuated
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)
itu
K
Degrees of freedom 6
5% 12.6
r% r 6 .8
Adjusted YZ,
Duration of Nurnber of Nurnber of Nurnber of (K-n)c^
Observation KNOWNS K NO WNS (K UNK NO WNS
Degrees ef freedorn 7
5To 14. I
r% 18. 5
64 65
TABLE VI CHI SOUARE TEST OT' KNOWNS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SPEED
Adjustcd
Number of Number of Numbcr of
Speed KNOWNS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS
StationarY 249 6r 53 l . 05
Less than 100 mPh 154 38 z6 3.79
100 to 400 rnph l 8l 45 58 3. ?6
Over 400 rnph 403 99 145 2t.37
Meteor-likc 83 zo l6 0.80
Not stated 69s t?t 136 7. l 6
Degrees of freedorn 5
ssh I l. I
tsh 15. I
A d ju s t e d ,,!-,,,
Nurnber of Nurnber of Nurnber of (5-tt)'
KNowNs KNOWNS (K) UNKNO1f,NS (n) K
Degrees of freedorn 5
5To ll.l
llo 15. I
66 67
TAB LE V III CHI S OU A RE T E S T O F RE V I S E D K NO WNS V E RSU S
r7
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF COLOR
Adjusted x2,
Nr-lrnber of Number of Nurnber of (ry-")2
Color KNOWNS KNOWNS (K) UNKNOWNS (n) K
Degrees of freedorn 1
t
\Yo 14. I
lV o 18. 5
Degrees o{ fneedorrr 4
5Vo 9"5
jfn l? a
4 TABLE X
' ut uNKNowNS oN THE BAsIs oF
'HAPE
Adjusted X2,
Nurnber of Numbcr of (K-niz
Numb e r o f
K NO WNS (K UNKNOWNS K
Sha K NOW NS
zl3 195 l. 52
Elliptical 632
z4 33 3 . 3?
Rocket or aircraft 7Z
Meteor or comet
FlArne
9
47
3
l6 ,l)
zz
l. 32
0 .93
lenticulart 79 27
TeardroP,
or cdnical l . 76
l5l 5l 54
Othe r 2.56
296 100 r l6
N ot sta ted
414 414 r 1.46
Total l 286
t
Degrees of freedorn
I t. r
5To t5 . r
llo
VERSUS UNKNOWNS
TABLE XI CHI S QUA RE TE S T OF REVISED KNOWNS
ON THE BASIS OF DURATION OF OBSERVATION
Adjusted
Nurnber of Nurnber of ( K - ") z
Duration of Nurnber of
KNOWNS K NO WNS (K UNK NO WNS
Observation
3l z7 0 . 52
5 sec or less 9Z
l6 2l r. 56
6- 10 sec 47
40 33 t. 23
I l-30 sec ll8
3I 4Z 3 . 90
3l-60 sec 9Z z.3r
25z 85 99
5l sec-5 rnin 7l 2.94
259 87
6 min-30 mi n 37 l. r 6
9l 3l
Over 30 rnin
lt 3 104 o .7z
Not stated 335
434 434 14. 34
Total r 286
7
Degrees of freedorn
14. I
5To 18.5
LTo
13
7Z
TABLE X II CHI S OUA RE T E S T O F RE V I S E D K NO WNS V E RS US
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SPEED
Adjusted urz
At
Degrees of treedom 4
5To 9.5
Ito 13. 3
Adjusted Yz,
Nurnber of (K-n)a
^
Nurnber of Number of
L-ight Ilrightncss KNOWNS KNOWNS (K) UNKNowNS (n) K
S unlight o n n ri rro r z4 8 t* I z. 67
S unlight o n a l u rn i n u m 136 46 28 1
S unlight o n p l a s te r, 63 2t l6 l. r g
s t ot r t : , o r s o i l
I l r ight c r th a n rrro o n 143 48 6l 3.52
Lik e r noon o r d u l l e r 42 l5 zz 3.27
t h; r r r nr oo n
Not s t ; r t ed 878 296 293 0 .0 3
'l't-rt; r I I 286 434 4J4 1 0 .6 8
5To 9.
lTo 1 3. 3
74 75
The "Flying Saucerrr Model
This study had two purposes. The first was to deterrnine, with
additional inforrnation such as the angle of elevation of the sun, how rnany
of the UNKNOWNS rnight be ascribed to known phenornena. The second was
to obtain those UNKNOWNS which were described in sufficient detail that
they rnight be used to construct a rnodel or rnodels of "flying saucerstr.
TO
,UNKNOWNS*it\ p:"f{',.i.'tly g"*,i1" d d:', " ".'gti,"+It. b: d'' good
:i}}e
. UNKNOWNI', whilEffiE-E?ffiinder would sirn .
One hundred sixty-four folders of a total of 186 OBJECT SIGHTINGS in
Groups 1, Z, 3, 6, and 7 were exarnined. The:e were 18 possible aircraft,
20possi b1 e b a 1 loons,7goodUNK No wNS , l0 0 UNK No wNs @
ffid EFTEing posETSle KNOWNS of various types. It is
interesting to note that two of these were established as rnock suns on the
basis of the angle of sun elevation and the sun bearing angle, together with
the direction of the object frorn the observer. In addition, the UNKNOW NS
in angle-of-sun-elevation Groups 4 and 5 (nighttirne sightings) were scanned
with no atternpt at identification, but to find any possible rrgood UNKNOWNSTI
There were five sightings that could be put into this category.
l/{/
obser in such a wav that thev should have been recogni zed eas
had been farniliar objects, that is, there was little ssibility that lr
s ha as seenlcould have been distorted sufficientl one cause or
a render thern u There were a verv 1d
hav e bee n identified as guided rnissiles or rockets, but that w ere not so
ident if ied because of the geographical location in which they w ere seen.
77
have been farniliar objects. However, the resolution of this question with
any degree of certainty appears to be irnpossible.
Thus, out of the 434 OBJECT SIGHTINGS that were identified as.
UNKNOWNS by the data reduction process, there were only lZ thatwere
described with sufficient detail that they could be used in an atternpt to
derivearnode1@Thefo11owingisasurnInaryoftheIZ
g""d UNKNOWN StCnriNCS;
Ir
v
Case-I (Serial 0573. 00)
6' to 8'
M 16;; r_,r.i,
l-l/2'x2'
78
objec t s f le w i n a s tra i g h t line except for
sorne changes i n di recti on ,',
y'tit,,*-
ac c or nplis he d i n a rrra n n e r like any standard ai rcraft turn.
P{ r t'.i{'""
T he o b j e c ts w e re shaped l i ke conventi onal ai rcraft. The unaccount-
abte GElu-ie-iif in6 o"bj;;i;-;aJ'thit.ifach;"1iil;-;;;r;*-;;rrounding it and
was glowin g i ts e l f, a l th o u g h i t w as a cl oudl ess ni ght.
Li ght gl ow
C.aseT
^-
Two towel ogeratgrs sighted a light over a city airport at Z0ZO hours
125'l Sincd .o.rr.rrurcial plane was taking off at this
"%{i-Ju;;y2d', "
tirne, the pilots were asked to investigate this light. They observed it at
2026 hours . According to thern, it flew abreast of thern at a greater
radius as they rnade their clirnbing turn, during which time it blinked so1.ae
lights which looked like running lights. While the observing plane was still
in its clirnbing turn, the object rnade a turn toward the plane and flew
across
its nose. As the two rnen turned their heads to watch it, it instantly
appeared on their other side flying in the sarne direction as they were
flying, and then in z or 3 seconds it slipped under thern, and they did not
see it again. Tota1 tirne of the observation was not stated. In appearance,
it was like an airplandwith a cigar-shaped body and strarght wings, sorne-
what larger than a B-2,9. No engine nacelles were observed on the wings.
79
&
r A' : ' ',1 a
(Jn e ltT €r ,e" jc.)
a'
Exhoust
l
Ces e I f ,) ! :, ,
* fi" ll,l lit> O o . 'r ;
/r- I tl /s Tn{. pttlut( 0t ont o _ -h(
J, I
':-l
! t' { .- ]i *vrr a.' i li,e / cit oi 1", ,,:6{f L n lo n , o:
f
:- J o E : . , o j s f " cr , ' f r ' ' ; r
r: ,._ 0h '* ,1ffi a.7
ho1,, a.cl
o i : l " c j ,i 80
l/
Case V (Serial 0565.0 0 to 0565 . 0 3 )
P ilor
Casef Windowswith
w hi i e l i ghr
C opi l or
8l
{r"
Case Vt (SeriaL 48ZZ.0O)
oFFrcEoF rr{tr,onMarrolt
*L igrfrnfornation
#:il: Dj.vjsion
*F,kt,irur"t*i^7,1m
\
I
I
Cas c f Deep red
82
A Flight sergeant saw an object over an
Air Force base in Korea at
o84z hours o" Jryjr-s.l3. The object flew in a series of spiinning
turnbling actiSi?. and
rt *"ir.r an erratic course, first frying lever,
stopping rnornentarily, then
shooting straight up, flying lever and
again turnbling,
then changing course and disaplearing
into the sun. rt reappeared and was
seen flying back and forth across the
sun. At one time an F-g5 passed
between the observer and the object.
He pointed it out to another rnan who
saw it as it maneuvered near th.
"orr.
Rotoii , n\
\
\
I
/
(D i mensi onsore os
C as eW show n i n observer' s
ori gi nol drow i ng)
C ase vUt (S eria1 0 5 7 6 .00)
Case Wt
(Rotio opprox. 3:l)
84
Cas e (Serial 0066.00)
A farrner and his two sons, aged 8 and 10, were at his {ishing carrrp
olAugugt I3, 1947: At about I300 hours, he went to look for the boys,
having sent thern to the river for sorne tape frorn his boat. He noticed an
object sorne 3.00 fget gwa_y, 75 _feet above tle grouqd. He saw it against
the background o-f the canygn walt which was 400 {e9t hfg]1 at this point. It
was hedge hopping, following the contour of the ground, was sky blue,
about ZA f.eet in diarneter and 10 feet thick, and had pods on the side frorn
which flarnes were shooti.ng out. It rnade a swishing sound. The observer
stated that the trees were highly agitated by the craft as it passed over.
His two sons also observed the object. No one saw the object for rnore
than a few seconds.
Side view
r -f--
LasL IL
End view
85
Cas e X (S e ri a l 1 I1 9 . 0 0 )
Tt?
L- as e A Something equivolent
to o polch Smoother in
fronf
86
Case XI (Serial 1550.00)
87
Ca,se-
W
Portholes
Case XII (Serial 3601.00)
It was about 75 feet long, 45 f.eeI wide, and l5 feet thick, shaped like
two oval rneat platters placed together. It was a dull alurninurn color, and
had a srnooth surface. A rnediurn$lue continuous light shone through the
o ne window i n th e fro n t s e c ti o n . The head a
r not ionles s , fa c i n s th e fo rw a rd edqe of the obi ect, w ere vi si bl e. In the
rnidsection of the object were several windows extendingTftffi-the top to the
r ear edge o f th e o b j e c t; th e rn i d secti on of the shi p had a bl ue l i ght w hi ch
gr adually c h a n g e d to d i ffe re n t s hades. There w as a l arge arnount of acti vi ty
and r nov er ne n t i n th e rn i d s e c ti o n that coul d not be i denti fi ed as ei ther hurnan
o r r nec hanic a l , a l th o u g h i t d i d n ot have a regul ar pattern of rnovernent.
T her e wer e n o w i n d o w s , d o o rs or porthol es, vents, searrrs, etc-, vi si bl e
t o t he obs er v e r i n th e re a r s e c ti o n of the obj ect or under the obj ect (vi ew ed
at t ir ne of a s c e n t). A n o th e r i d e nti fi abl e feature w as a seri es of prope.l l ers
6 t o l2 inc h e s i n d i a rn e te r s p a c e d cl osel y together al ong the outer edge of
the objec t . These p ro p e l l e rs w e re rnounted on a bracket so that they
r ev olv ed in a h o ri z o n ta l p l a n e a l ong the edge of the obj ect. The propel l ers
w er e r ev olv i n g a t a h i g h ra te o f speed.
B9
Approximorely
75' long
Case,ffi
These IZ sightings can be classed into four categories on the basis of
their shapes, as follows:
The criterion for choosing the above sightings was that their descrip-
tions were given in enough detail to perrnit diagrarns of the objects to be
drawn. It rnight be noted here that in all but one of these cases (Case XI)
the observer had already drawn a diagrarn of what he had seen.
(9) case IX. The object had rocket or jet pods on each
side that were shooting out flarnes.
9Z
(lZ) Case XII. The object had windows 1n its top and front
and its top rnidsection. It also had a set of propellers
around its waist.
9J 3,.jlllying
**-f:"*9el--P-e"-s's"i.hle*"*rh^s-&e"{or"ea-J.e"$-9.,5*fi"-e.""?--.-v-*if-i.-e..d-.m.,o-d"q1-
'irn:'
This point
*_g9_R*-.c*n**J#"aar^th.",e_-_d".+l+"*t"h?"!"".h*y,e-.'been.ge,$_ef""_eA"tg.d_elg-. is
portant enough to ernphasize. Out of about 4,000 people who said they saw
a !rflying saucerrr, sufficiently detailed descriptions were given in only I Z
cases. Having culled the crearn of the crop, it is still irnpossible to develop
a picture of what a rrflying saucerrr is.
I +rS
This is, of course, contrary to the bulk of the publicity that has been
nred"|j"n '
given to this problern. The reason for the nature of this publicity was
'' +4pil-
liln.;'- clearly brought out during the re-evaluation study. It is a definite fact that
dtf uPon reading a few reports, the reader becornes convinced that
"flying
saucersrrare real and are sotrre forrn of sinister contrivance. This reaction
is independent of the training of the reader or of his attitude toward the
problern prior to the initial contact. It is unfortunate that practically all of
the articles, books, and news stories dealing with the phenornenon of the
rrflying saucerrr were written by rnen
who were in this category, that is,
rnen who had read only a few selected reports. This is accentuated by the
fact that, as a rule, only the rnore lurid-sounding reports are cited in these
publications- *[9-a.q;-t**gj"{gr.-lbrs---9€m**9-.-q*"p-g-ys,tr-gl9d.if.gtis.*."qs-t*.-y.-,"1e,,
*g*qr**sgAx,lhs__ll*y.:_t9"*"o*.1_l._i!*.Lp*_p__o".::_1.9]_9.".-1h*"j'
*_".J_"*e*hle.$_.e!*!"t'i:"_l_q**j..9-
xe*".q-s:::-l:
r!lls;t,d@l
J The reaction, rnentioned above, that after reading a few reports, the ]
J i
fI reader is convinced thatttflying saucersrrare real and are sorne forrn of I
sinister contrivancer is very rnisleading. As rnore and rnore of the reports fI
are read, the feeling thatItsaucersttare real fades, and is replaced by a t
feeling of skepticisrn regarding their existeuce. The reader eventually I
reaches a pg_int of satu-13j*|gt, after which the reports contain no new infor-
rnation of any intere"t.
I
"t arnong
"fi*""ild1;;;"6&"" *LH.:.f*.gl_i"_+_g.gt;y^T-{_g_lly*,I
universal the per-s--q4rn,gl
who worked on this riiojeit, a.ra ib"fi",i"*ifv !
I
:*i;.;"itai"ed;-c";,-,,iioo;;i;;; on'ttJir:p;';r*t;;;i;t.i;il';;it-:-::"--::^-*:''
93
CONC LUSIONS
Although the reports considered in this study usually did not contain
scientific rneasurernents of the attributes of each sighting, it was possible
to establish certain valid conclusions by the application of statistical
rnethods in the treatrnent of the data. Scientifically evaluated and arranged,
the data as a whole did not show any rnarked patterns or trends. The in-
accuracies inherent in this type of data. in addition to the incornpleteness of
a large proportion of the reportsr may have obscured any patterns or trends
that otherwise would have been evident. This absence of indicative relation-
ships necessitated an exhaustive study of selected facets of the data in order
to draw any valid conclusions.
i n te n s i v e
An s tu d y , a i rn e d at fi ndi ng a veri fi ed exarnpl e of arrfl yi ng
s auc er l' o r a t d e ri v i n g a v e ri fi ed rnodel or rnodel s of ' tfl yi ng saucers" (a s
def ined o n Pa g e l ), l e d to th e concl usi on that nei ther goal coul d be attai n ed
us ing t he p re s e n t d a ta .
94
DIS TRIB UTIONS B Y CHA RA CT E RI S T I CS
69
INDEX OF TABLES
Page
by Year s 107
Table A I . E va l uation of All Sightings
by Year s 107
Table AZ. E va l uation of Unit Sightings
108
T a b l e A 3. E va l uation of Object Sightings by Year s
1948 III
T a b l e A 6. E va l uation of All Sightings by M onth of Year ,
T ab l e A 25 . E valuation of All Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr ouPs ' A1I Year s I30
T ab l e 427. E valuation of A1I Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr ouPs ' 1948 130
Table A29. E valuation of All Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr oups , 1950 . l3l
Table A30. E valuation of AII Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr oups , 1951 l3l
Table A33. E valuation of Unit Sightings by Sighting R el i abi l i ty Gr oups , 1947 . l3Z
95 and 96 97
INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Page
Table A54. Evaluation of All Sigtrtings for I950 by Sighting Reliability croups,
M ititar y Obser ver s 138
98
1l
T N D EX OF . T ABLES
( C onti nued)
Page
T a b l e 4'66 . E va l uation of AU Sightings foq All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
On e Object t44
T a b l e A 67 . E val uation of All Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
T wo Objects . . 144
Table A68. E va l uation of AII Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
T hr ee to Ten Objects . . 145
Table A 59 . E va l uation of A1I Sightings for All Yea r s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
E l even or M or e Objects . 145
Table A?0. E va l uation of All Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
N u m ber of Objects Not Stated . . t46
Table A7l. E va l uation of Unit Sightings for AII Ye ar s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
On e Object 147
Table A72. E val uation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
T w o Objects . . 141
T ab l e A73. E va l uation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
T h r ee to Ten Objects . . I48
T ab l e A 7 4 . E va l uation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
E l even or M or e Objects . . t48
Table A75. E va l uation of.Unit Sightings for All Ye ar s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
N um ber of Objects Not Stated . . t49
T a b l e A 76 . E val uation of object sightings for AII y ear s by N um ber of obj ec ts per s i ghti ng,
O ne Object 150
Table A77. E va l uation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghtr ng,
T w o Objects . .
T a b l e A 78 . 'E val uation of Object Sightings for Al1 Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghtr ng,
T h r ee to Ten Objects . .
T ab l e'A 79 . E va l uation of Object Sightings for All y ear s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghtr ng,
E l even or M or e Qbjects . .
T ab l e A 8 0 . E val uation of Object Sightings for All y ear s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng,
N u m ber o( Objects Not Stated . . t5z
Tab l e A 8 l . Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, ALl Year s . . 153
Tab l e A 8 Z . E va l uation of All Sightings by Dur ation o{ Si ghti ng, r947 t53
99
7L
IN D EX OF T ABLES
(C ontinued)
Page
1948 t54
T ab l e A 8 3 . Evaluation of Al1 Sightings by Dur ati on of Si ghti ng,
t54
T a b l e A 84 . Evaluation of AII Sightlngs by Dur ati on of Si ghti ng, 1949
I950 I55
Table A85, Evaluation of AU Sightings by Dur ati on o{ Si ghti ng'
rto
T a b l e A 8? , Evaluation of AIt Sightings by Dur ati on of Si ghti ng, I95Z
Ig47 L57
T ab l e A 8 9 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Dur ati on of Si ghti ng, '
Ig48 158
Table A90. Evaluation of Unit Sightlngs by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng, '
1949 I58
T a b l e A 9l . Evaluation of Unit Sightings by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng, '
Al l Year s l6l
T ab l e A '9 5 . Evaluation of Object Sightings by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng' ' '
194? 161
Table ,{9 6 . Evaluation o{ Object Sightings by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng,
1948 f6Z
T ab l e A 9 7 . Evaluation of Object Sightings by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng,
lb J
Table A99. Evaluation of Object Sightings by D ur .ati on of Si ghti ng' 1950
T ab l e Ai02. Evaluation of A11 Sightings for Al l Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
o{ Year , Five Seconds or Less . .
T a b l e A I0 5 . Evaluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Thir ty One to Sixty S ec onds 168
T a b l e A tO 5. Evaluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Sixty One Seconds to F i v e M i nutes . . 169
T ab l e A 1 0 ? . Evaluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Six to Thir ty M inutes t70
Table A108. Evaluation of All Sightings for Al l Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Over Thir ty M inutes
r 00
I INDEX OF TABLES
(C ontinued)
j less
i fa b l e A l I0 . E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s , by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Five Seconds or Less . . L73
T a b l e A l IZ . E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
o{ Year , Eleven to Thir ty Seconds 175
T ab l e A l l 3, E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on bf Si ghti ng for M onths
o{ Year , Thir ty One to Sixiy Secon ds
T ab l e A l 14 , E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Sixty One Seconds to Five M i nutes . ,
T ab l e A Il 5. E v aluation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Six to Thir ty M inutes 178
T ab l e A II6 . E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Over Thir ty M inutes l ?9
T ab l e All7. E valuation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Dur ation Not Stated . .
Table A l 18 . E valuation of Object Sightings for A11 Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Five Seconds or Less
Tabie A 12 3 . E valuation of Object Sightings for A11 Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year , Six to Thir ty M inutes 186
T ab l e A I24 . E valuation of Object Sightings for A l l Year s by D ur ati on of Si ghti ng for M onths
of Year , Over Thir ty M inutes lo a
Table AlZ6. Evaluation of All Sightings for A1l Years by Shape o{ Qbject, Elliptical 189
Table AlZ7. Evaluation of AII Sightings for A11 Years by Shape of Object' Rocket and Aircra{t r89
T a b l e A 12 8 . E v aluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t' M eteor or C om et r90
Table AlZ9. E valuation of All Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t' Lenti c ul ar , C oni c al ,
or Tear dr op 190
Table A I 30. Evaluation of A1l Sightings for A11 Years by Shape of Object, Flame l9l
T ab l e A l 3I, Evaluation of AII Sightings for AII Years by Shape of Object, Other Shapes t9l
T ab l e A 1 3 2 . E valuation of A11 Sightings for All Y ear s by Shape of Obj ec t, Shape N ot Stated L9Z
l0I
7+ INDEX OF TABLES
(G ontinued)
P age
A133. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al l Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, El l i pti c al . 193
Table -
I
Table A I 34 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al l Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, R oc k et and Ai r c r aft
lqa
T ab l e A135. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, M eteor or C om et
T ab te A 1 3 6 . Evaluation of Uait Sightings for AIl Year s by Shape of Obj ec t' Lenti c ul ar ,
Conical, or Tear dr op t94
F l am e L"
T ab l e A 13 7 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al 1 Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, .
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al l Year s by Shape of Obj ec t' Other Shapes . . to(
Table A I 38.
'r'a b l e 4 1 3 9 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, Shape N ot Stated 195
T ab l e A 14 0 . Evaluation of Object Sightings for A11 Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, El l i Pti c al . . I97
T ab l e A 1 4 l . Evaluation of Object Sightings for Al l Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, R oc k et and Ai r c r aft r97
T a b l e A I43 . Evaluation of Object Sightings f or A11 Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, Lenti c ul ar '
Conical, or Tear dr op r98
Tabie A I4 5 . Evaluation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, Other Shapes r99
Table A 14 6. Evaluation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by Shape of Obj ec t, Shape N ot Stated 200
T ab l e A I4 7 . Evaluation of A11 Sightings for Al l Year s by R epor ted s peeds of obj ec ts , s tati onar y , . z 0l
Table A148. Evaluation of AII Sightir igs for AII Year s by R ePor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts r Les s
Than One Hundr ed M iles Per H our .
z 0l
T ab te A 14 9 . Evaluation of All sightings for A11 Year s by R epor ted s peeds of Qbj ec ts , one
Hundr ed to Four Hundr ed M iles per H our
zoz
T ab l e A I5 I. Evaluation of AII Sightings for AII Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts '
Speeds .
203
M eteor - Like
T ab l e A 15 2 . Evaluation of AII sightings Ior AII Year s by R ePor ted s peeds of obj ec ts '
203
Speed Not Stated .
sightings for Al l Year s by R epor ted s peeds of obj ec ts , s tati onar y . . 204
T a b l e A I5 3 , Evaluation of unit
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by R epor ted Speede of Obj ec ts , Les s T han
T ab l e A 1 5 4 .
zo4
One Hundr ed M iles per Hour .
Evaluation of unit sightings for AIl Year s by R epor ted s peeds of obj ec ts , one H undr ed
T ab l e A I5 5 .
z o5
to Four Hundr ed M iles Per H our
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for A11 Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts , Ov er
T ab l e A I5 5 .
z o5
Four Hundr ed M iles Per Hour
Table A l 5? . Evaluation of Unit Sigtr tings for Al l Year s by R ePor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts t
Speeds .
206
M eteor - Like
roz
INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Page
A 15 9 . E v aluation of Object Sightings Ior AII Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts ' Stati onar y z o' 7
T ab l e
T ab l e A 1 6 0 . E v aluation of Object Sightings for A 11 Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts ' Les s
Than One Hundr ed M iles Per Hour . z o7
T ab l e A I6 l , E levation of Object Sightings { or Al} Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts , One.
to Four Hundr ed M iles pe r H our .
208
Hundr ed
T ab l e A I6 2 . E v aluation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by R epor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts , Ov er
Four Hundr ed M iles per Hour .
208
T ab l e A I6 3 . E valuation of Object Sightings for A l l Year s by R ePor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts '
Speeds ,
zo9
M eteor - Like
T a b l e A I6 4 . E v aluation of Object Sightings for A II Year s by R ePor ted Speeds of Obj ec ts '
209
Speed Not Stated .
T ab l e A 1 6 8 . Location of Obser ver s Dur ing Sighti ng by M onths fo! AU Si ghti ngs , AII Year s . zr 3
Location of Obser ver s Dur ing Sighti ng by M onths for A11 Si ghti ngs , 1947 z l ,4
T ab l e A I6 9 .
of Obser ver s Dur ing Sighti ng by M onttr s for AII Si ghti ngs , 1948 z I5
T a b l e A I?0 . Location
T ab l e A l ?I. Location of Obser ver s Dur ing Sighti ng by M onths {or AII Si ghti ngs ' 1949 zr 6
A l ?2 . Location of Obser ver s Dur ing Sight i ng by M onths for Al l Si ghti ngs ' 1950 zt7
Table
T ab l e A I73 . Location o{ Obser ver Dur ing Sightin g by M onths for AII Si ghti ngs , 195l . zL a
I95Z 7lq
Table A I7 4 . Location of Obser ver s Dur ing Sight i ng by M onths for Atl Si ghti ngs '
Table A l ?5 . Evaluation of AU Sightings for A11 Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, W hite or Glowing W bi te Obj ec ts . . zzo
T ab l e Al?7. Evaluation of All Sightings for All Year s by C ol or s R ePor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Object Color Not Stated zzl
T ab l e A 17 8 . Evaluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R ePor ted for D ur ati on
oI Sighting, Or ange or .Glowing Or ange Obj ec ts . . ZZI
T ab l e A I?9 . Evaluation of AII Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sightingr Red or Glowing Red Objects . . zzz
T a b l e A I8 0 , Evaluation of A1l Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
o{ Sighting, Gr een or Glowing Green Obj ec ts
zzz
T ab l e A 18 2 . Evaluation of.All Sightings for All Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Objects of Other Color s
zz3
T ab l e A 18 3 . Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, W hite or Glowing W hi te Obj ec ts ' zz4
103
T N D EX OF T ABLES
( C onti nued)
Page
T ab l e A I84. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al l Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, M etallic Objec ts . . ZZ4
T ab l e A 186. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for Al l Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Or ange or Glow i ng Or aoge Obj ec ts . . zz5
T ab l e A 18?. Evaluation of Unit Sightings {or Al l Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Red or Glowing R ed Obj ec ts .
T ab l e A I88. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Gr een or Glow i ng Gr een Obj ec ts
T a b l e A189. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Ye11ow or Glow i ng Yel l ow Obj ec ts . zz7
T ab l e A 190. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for A11 Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Objects of Other C ol or s zz7
T ab l e A19I. Evaluati.on of Object Sighting s for AII Year s by Gol o!s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, W hite or Glowi ng W hi te Obj ec ts . . zz8
Table AI9Z. Evaluation of Object Sighting. for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, M etallic Objec ts . . zz8
Table A193. Evaluation oI Object Sightings for AIl Year s by C ol or s R ePor ted for D ur ati on
))a
of Sighting, Object Color N ot Stated
T ab l e A194. Evaluation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
?2q
of Sighti.ngr Qr ange or Glo w i ng Or ange Obj ec ts . .
T ab l e A195, Eyaluation oI Object Sightings {or A1l Year s by C ol or s R ePor ted for D ur ati on
Red or Glowing R ed Obj ec ts . . 230
of Sighting'
T ab Ie A196. Evaluation of Object Sightings for Al l Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Gyeen or Glow i ng Gr een Obj ec ts . . 230
Table AI97. Evaluation of Object Sightings for Al l Year s by C ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, YeIIow or Glo w i ng Yel l ow Obj ec ts . 23r
Table AI98. Evaluation of object sighting s for Al l Year s by c ol or s R epor ted for D ur ati on
of Sighting, Objects of Other C ol or s 23t
T ab te AI99, Evaluation of All sightings for Al l Year s by N um ber of obj ec ts per s i ghti ng
for Dur ation o{ Sightingr One Obj ec t z 3z
Table A200. Evaluation of All sightings for Al l Year s by N um ber of obj ec ts Per s i ghti ng
for Dur ation of Sighting, T w o Obj ec ts . . z 3z
T a b l e AZ0l. Evaluation of All Sightings for Al l Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts Per Si ghti ng
for Dur ation of Sighting, T hr ee to T en Obj ec ts . . 233
T ab l e A202. Evaluation of AII Sightings for Al l Year s by N um ber of obj ec ts Per s i ghti ng
for Dur ation of SiShting, El ev en or M or e Obj ec ts . . 233
T a b Ie A203. Evaluation of All Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts Per Si ghti ng
for Dur ation of Sighting, N um ber of Obj ec ts N ot Stated . 234
Table A204. Evaluation of unit sightings for A11 Year s by N um ber of obj ec ts per s i ghti ng
for Dur ation of Sighting, Oue Obj ec t
235
T ab l e A205. Evaluation of Unit Sr ghtings for Al l Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts Per Si ghti ng
for Dur ation of Sighting, T w o Obj ec ts
235
.
104
INDEX OF TABLES
(C onti nued)
Page
Table A206. E va luation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
{or Dur ation o{ Sighting, Thr ee to T en Obj ec ts , . 236
Table A 20 ? . E va luation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur atiou of Sighting, Eleven or M or e Obj ec ts . . 236
Table A208. E va luation of Unit Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation of Sighting, Num ber of Obj ec ts N ot Stated . . 237
Tab l e A 20 9 . E va luation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation of Sighting, One Object 238
I
Ta b l e A ,2 1 0 . E va luation of Object Sightings for AII Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation of Sighting, Two Object s . , 238
T ab l e A Z II. E va luation of Object Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation of Sighting, Thr ee to T en Obj ec ts . . 239
Tab l e A Z IZ . E va luation o{ Object Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation ol Sighting, Eleven or M or e Obj ec ts . . 239
Table A Z I3. E va luation of Object Sightings for All Year s by N um ber of Obj ec ts per Si ghti ng
fo r Dur ation of Sighting, Num ber of Obj ec ts N ot Stated . . Z4 O
Tab l e A 2 1 4 . E va luation of AU Sightings for All Year s by Geogr aphi c Loc ati on 24L
Table A 2I 5. E va luation of Unit Sightings for All Year s by Geogr aphi c Loc ati on . . 24l
Tab l e A Z I6. E va luation of Object Sightings for All Year s by Geogr aphi c Loc ati on . . z 4z
Table AZ l7. E valuation of All Sightings for AII Year s by N or tb Am er i c an Loc ati on, 243
Tab l e A Z I8. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by North American Location 243
Tab l e A 2 1 9 . E va luation of Object Sightings Ior All Year s by N or th Am er i c an Loc ati on 244
T ab l e A 2 2 0 . Evaluation o{ All Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location 245
T ab l e A Z Z I. Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location 246
T a 6 l e A Z ?2 . EvalEtion of Object Sightings for All Yearg by United States Regional Location 247
Table 4,223. E valuation of All Sightings in ttr e Str a tegi c Ar eas of the C entr al Eas t R egi on 248
Table 4,224. Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Midwest Region . 248
T ab l e A ? 2 5 . E valuation of AU Sightings in the Str ategi c Ar eas of the C entr al F ar w es t R egi on . 248
T ab l e A 2 2 6 . E va luation of A1I Sightings in the Str a tegi c Ar eas of the South M i dw es t R egi on . . 249
T ab l e L 2 2 7 . E valuation of All Sightings in the Str ategi c Ar eas of the South W es t R egi on 249
Table 4,228. E valuation of A1l Sightings in the Str a tegi c Ar eas of the South F ar w es t R egi on . 249
T ab l e A 2 2 9 . Evaluation o{ Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central East Region 250
'
Table A230. E valuation- o{ Unit Sightings in the Str ategi c Ar eas of the C entr al . M i dw es t R egi on 250
T a b l e A 23 I. E va luation of Unit Sightings in the Str ategi c Ar eas of the C entr al F ar w es t R egi on , 250
" ta 6 l e A Z 3 Z . E valuation of Unit Sightings io the Strategi c Ar eas of ttr e South M i dw es t R egi on 25l
105
1B
IN D EX OF T ABLES
( Gouti nued)
Pa ge
T ab l e A 2 35. Evaluation of object sightings i n tbe s tr ategi c Ar eas of the c entr al M i dw es t R egi .on 252
A 2 3?. Evaluation of Object Sightings i n the Str ategi c Ar eas of the C entr al F ar w es t R egi on z 5z
Table
Evaluation of Object Sightings i n the Str ategi c Ar eas of the South M i dw es t R egi on 253
Table A 238.
Evaluation of Qbject Sightings i n the Str ategi c A!eas of the South W es t R egi on . z 6i
T ab l e A 239.
of Object Sightings i n the Str ategi c Ar eas of the South F ar w es t R egi on . 253
T a b l e A 240. Evaluation
lloirtrr Pd C6l
EI
4,,
Enlda. )da. TfrI nn Id trl W IU hm tou ;mn w0n DouUn ToU :ffi. buto
.BJld ?rq t tt /t/1 q ,,2 ND 12 /q ?t t4 /1a //7 /-I
,llt l
'3
ltt ltt tnA ,<t /9 44 tt ?t ,71 2t t7 5t /t1 /4.L t4f ?4 to ??.t 1L2
l-^irdl ? t74 //.1 ?. 2 ,t.t r'- 2 ,t 42 /t 4 /, q< 2/" 't L /t /2 2' /2.'
FU|ltnrd. 12 2l <2 n9 4t t./ t/t 4t t ,t 2t /) t ,t ,t ,
.tliib ,e 23 t5 /).t] ,4 /) o /) ,f tn ,A 2 t r ', o 2 3 t.t 44
'Clrdt, lllt ae /o nt t,.t o.t 2 t /) t.t t.a nt D 2t a, t.t t a , ,/ n
;lolfic h. alLt 2L/ D1 t.D tAz t IL /rt tn /r.1 a |,f o.o ?? /) ? tl /4 tn /4t
rPvtblodcl . a 45 t1 174 t.t ? 2 r ?/ ,/ t2 2 ,7 to 2a t o ? /.t t/)
{lbr 49t 4?7 tel 1' .41 24 t 2t 24t to 4//, ta t, D5 ?? 2? /42
{}L ?,1 t2 a1 n u1 /t f) lL1 t 4 2/- ( 42 b o L 2.5 /rt
Yd ,7 ,44 7tI 29.1 tm. t( tt 91 (y'r /t.4 'oo c9 E tEl la4 ?<? tm /4t 9/- r'aL F' 4a2 I toD
T-l frt tt ed, 1/t /11 'dr. ta4 t- , tr7 tt4 t-:t 4ttr il7 at.t ta.
I07
8o
ffi batetr statt
108
INDEX OF FORMS
Page
X Offlcer X x
YY I
0 Lt. 2nd 0 Prlvate 0 Conplete
I Lt. lst 1 Prlvateo let Cls. 1 Srlte
2 Capt. 2 Corp. 2 Falr
3 M aJ. 3 Serg. ? Dorbtfirl
L L t. C o }, l, S . T. Se rg . l+ Poor
5 Col. 5 M. Serg. 5 Not
6 Brlg. Gen. 6 tlarrant Off. 6
7 MaJ. Gen. 7 Chlef Warrant 7
8 Lt. Gen. I I
9 General 9 9 Canrt be Judged
x Probably
Y
o Balloon
I Astrononlcal
2 Aircraft
3 tlght Phenomenon
t, Blrds
5 Clouds, dust, etc.
6 Reeket-er-n*ee*1e Insuff lctent inforaatlon
7 Psychological nanife statlons
I Eleetrenegnet*e-pbeneEeRen Unknown
9 0ther
x Variable
x
Y
T ON
0 Zeto, V ' constant lNE
I fncreasing slowlY 2E
4
L Decreasing slow1Y
? Increasing fast 3SE
l+ Decreasing fast l+ s
Increasing verY fast 5 s} l
6l.;
5 Decreasing verY fast 7 N!'l
7 I
I Y
CODE?0.71 ELEVATION
BE48SS IlirTH RESPECTTO oRoUND'DIGREES
coDE69 DrsifPErENqE
Initlal
x Disappearedtit$3*fttt{0N
ssRqrc6
Division vA Variable x Variable
IHT.t"h?:illT'';;
tFF:.:'::t''';'-"; the
Air Foro' .L Y
::.;:* '..lo n:' 45thstreet U 0-g
0 0-9
.?t^t^if'',il I 10-r.9
Yo'k
New 1 r0-19
,fi3iX"'o;tt' 2 20-29
4
I 20-29
30-39
.t
3a-39
5 srd ll
ho-l+9
I
.+ h0-l+9
6w 50-5e 5a-59
? NW 6o-69 60-69
I { 7a-?9
IJ
"?
! 7a-79
f, 8c-89 80*Ep
OODE?2 OBJHCTONffi1{TATIO}'I
Apparent. i.nei-ination sf prineipa3"
--Iiis-of 90CUPATIOU
0B$i;riVFlfi'
oUiggt'grorn lrorizontai eoDE ?3 *lJtl'IEmIERS -:-e0DE
"--'- ?[*
i .1..
Y
K
Vasi"able
1r
vE Y Civil-:lan r'.1*';'*Pation rsb stated
fl, ,t ianaYp'nil"i ':*,tY
+gCIot0 6,00
I
+ii00 to 30c I 1 Nav3l', rra,l-1",r,4,rY
;l, '...{;;+.T"Y
Pl*"ri;:lc',1.,
"i rtilo "t.ll -!.ce 4:"
3 Air ta:r"cee .,iiiiitas3'
.,4,
307
OF OB@
DE 75 EVALU,.TIOII CODE76 EVAI,UATION RELIABILITY
OF RT^PORT
x x
T Y
0 Complete Cornplete
1 Quite t Quite
2 Fair I Fair
3 Doubtful 3 Doubtful
l+ Poor L Poor
5 Not No t
6 6
7 7
B B
9 Cannot be judged Cannot be judged
3C 6
(Wot tor general dtstrlbutlon)
DEPAXTI'IENTOF DEFENSE
I\{AJOBGENEBALJCHN A. SAlvlFORD
H
r
for as openlir,g ren0,rks ls coneernetl, I Just nant to str:,te our
fecrson for conoern about th1s.
Corporation
Ramsey-\Wallace
PUBLISHERS
A 8 W E S T MA I N S T RE E T
RA MS E Y ' NE W . J E RS E Y
07446
$ 4.OO P E R CO P Y