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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2021) 28:62421–62430

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15167-9

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Determinants of municipal solid waste: a global analysis by countries’


income level
Manuel A. Zambrano-Monserrate 1 & Maria Alejandra Ruano 2 & Vanessa Ormeño-Candelario 3

Received: 16 November 2020 / Accepted: 23 June 2021 / Published online: 1 July 2021
# The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021

Abstract
The generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) is an environmental problem worldwide. A high rate of MSW produces
pollution and diseases and affects the economic development of countries. This study analyzes the effect that GDP, population
density, urbanization, and tourists’ flow have on the generation of MSW in 173 countries worldwide. We grouped countries
according to their income levels to control for heterogeneity between regions. The results show that, during 2016, solid waste
generation increased along with GDP increments, mainly in high-income countries. We show that the increase in MSW is also
due to the rise in population and urbanization. Tourism also has a positive and significant impact on the generation of waste. Our
results allow us to recommend some public policy actions.

Keywords Municipal solid waste (MSW) . Income level . Population . Urban density . Tourists’ flow

Introduction generation. The latter has been of great interest to academics


and governments (Cheng et al. 2020).
Municipal solid waste (MSW) is defined as the waste gener- Previous studies have identified economic, demographic,
ated by domestic, commercial, and construction activities col- and tourists’ flow variables, among other factors, as determin-
lected, transported, treated, and disposed of by municipalities ing factors in MSW generation. For example, authors like
(Karak et al. 2012; Das et al. 2019; Xiao et al. 2020). MSW Cheng et al. (2020), Shapiro-Bengtsen et al. (2020), Xiao
generation has received significant attention in recent years et al. (2020), and Malav et al. (2020) have attributed the in-
due to its large production volume (Cheng et al. 2020). crease in MSW to rapid population growth and urbanization,
Statistics show that more than 4 billion tons of solid waste, as well as accelerated economic growth. On this, Soukiazis
almost half of which is MSW, is produced worldwide each and Proença (2020) explain how the MSW generation follows
year (Gutberlet 2015). the same trend of population density, degree of urbanization,
For this reason, the majority of countries have shown in- and economic growth. As the standard of living and income
terest in reducing solid waste production. For this, the first improves, more resources are used, and therefore, waste
step would be to understand the factors that affect their production tends to increase. On the other hand, Chen et al.
(2005) show that tourism also affects the generation of MSW.
According to Gidarakos et al. (2006), Teh and Cabanban
(2007), and Estay-Ossandon and Mena-Nieto (2018), tourism
Responsible Editor: Philippe Garrigues
is one of the leading social activities that increases MSW.
Table 1 shows a summary of previous studies on the subject.
* Manuel A. Zambrano-Monserrate
manuelzambranom@uees.edu.ec However, these previous studies have been carried out on
particular countries, which have prevented having a global
1
perspective on the effect of economic, demographic, and tour-
Universidad Espíritu Santo, Samborondón, Ecuador
ists’ flow variables on MSW generation.
2
Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Humanísticas, Escuela Superior Therefore, this research analyzes the variables that affect
Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Campus Gustavo Galindo Km 30.5
Vía Perimetral, P.O. Box 09-01-5863, Guayaquil, Ecuador
the generation of MSW in 173 countries. First, we propose a
3
global model, including all the countries in the sample.
Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL,
Guayaquil, Ecuador
Subsequently, we group the countries according to their
62422 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:62421–62430

Table 1 Previous studies concerning MSW

Authors Country Time period Variables Methods Main Results

Cheng et al. (2020) China 2003–2016 MSW, GDP, population, Difference-in-difference, The total amount of MSW will
urbanization rate, the gas STIRPAT model not decrease in a short term.
penetration rate, share of Increased population and
tertiary industry, and urbanization promote the
education generation of MSW. Increased
gas penetration rate has
reduced MSW, especially in
Central and Western China.
The share of tertiary industry
has a positive relationship with
MSW, especially in the eastern
region, but has a negative
relationship with it in the
northeastern region
Gutberlet (2015) Brazil 2007–2013 MSW, average number of Descriptive analysis Recycling cooperatives are key
cooperative members, to the sustainability of cities,
materials sold in kg, price since they reduce the city’s
variations for selected solid waste load. Their impact
materials depends on resource
availability, fair pay, and
access to recycled material
within the MSW
Karak et al. (2012) Worldwide - Annual MSW, MSW generation Descriptive analysis The developed countries generate
(in kpc), population, physical from 521.95 to 759.2 kg per
composition of MSW person per year (kpc), while
developing countries generate
from 109.5 to 525.6 kpc on
average. The global MSW
generation surpasses 2 billion
tons per year, which threatens
the environment
Das et al. (2019) Worldwide 2011–2015, MSW, GDP, urban population, Descriptive analysis The location of the country and
2016–20- major waste management its economic situation are
19 technologies essential to determine the
characteristics of its waste.
Modern techniques should be
applied in developed
countries. Low-cost labor in-
tensive techniques can be use-
ful in poor and developing
countries, since it maintains
the flow of “waste-to-wealth
cycle” and generates employ-
ment
Xiao et al. (2020) China 2010–2035 MSW, GDP, per capita disposal System dynamics model A higher GDP growth rate will
income of residents, per capita boost the amount of MSW
consumption expenditure of generation per capita and the
residents, growth rate of total amount of MSW
migration resident, growth rate generation. Nevertheless, a
of permanent resident, strict demographic policy will
percentage of recyclable boost MSW generation per
waste, percentage of capita but insignificantly
household food waste, among influence the MSW
others generation’s total amount. A
sorting policy will result in
great demand for food waste
treatment facilities
Zambrano-Monserrate Ecuador 2017 MSW, gender, age, civil status, Multivariate probit model The level of education and access
et al. (2020) education, income, poverty, to the Internet are determinants
of household behavior when
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:62421–62430 62423

Table 1 (continued)

Authors Country Time period Variables Methods Main Results

region, environment, separating waste. This effect is


volunteering, Internet greater in the rural population
than in the urban one
Alam and Ahmade Worldwide - Sources and components of solid Descriptive analysis The amount of waste generated
(2013) waste, type and the quantity of daily by each household has
solid waste disposed, and increased due to global
methods of solid waste population growth and the
disposal rising demand for food and
other essentials. Waste that is
not managed correctly is a
severe health hazard and leads
to infectious disease
Magazzino et al. Switzerland 1990–2017 MSW, purchasing power parity, Time series procedures There is a bidirectional causal
(2020) municipal waste recovery (stationarity and relationship between
generation, greenhouse gas causality tests) and a municipal solid waste
emissions from the waste machine learning generation and GDP,
sector approach indicating that Switzerland’s
Environmental Kuznets Curve
hypothesis holds. Waste
recovery (recycling and
composting) is a crucial driver
in mitigating greenhouse gas
emissions
Clarke et al. (2019) UK 2010–2030 Mass of Waste Electrical and Material flow analysis, The authors identified reuse as
Electronic Equipment prospective scenario the preferred management
(WEEE) present in the light analysis option, next to recycling.
iron waste stream, masses of Current WEEE management
WEEE collected through indi- practices are found to result in
rect collections, in-warranty net GHG saving
returns, retail take-back, and
asset management schemes,
mass of non-obligated WEEE,
among others
Alola et al. (2019a) France, 1990–2016 Final renewable energy Fully modified Ordinary Renewable energy consumption
Germany, consumption measure in Least Square is observed to cause a 0.13%
and the million tons of energy, (FMOLS) and and 0.14% decline in the
UK migration index, consumer Dynamic Ordinary emissions of carbon dioxide
price index, GDP, carbon Least Square (DOLS) with FMOLS and DOLS.
dioxide emissions, greenhouse Migration causes a 0.04% and
gas 0.05% increase in carbon
dioxide emissions in the panel
countries with FMOLS and
DOLS, respectively
Alola et al. (2019b) Spain, 1999–2014 GDP, number of housing Pooled mean group, A 1% increase in housing
France, construction per year, real mean group, and construction policy, real
Slovenia, income tourism, carbon dynamic fixed effects income tourism, and carbon
Greece, emissions, renewable energy emissions leads to 0.955,
Turkey, consumption 8.622, 0.007, and 6.805
Lebanon, increase in renewable energy
and Israel growth
Shapiro-Bengtsen China 2003–2017 MSW, sorted food waste, urban Time series Mixed MSW ranges from 159
et al. (2020) population, and real million metric tons (MMT) to
disposable household income 340 MMT and sorted food
waste from MSW from zero to
109 MMT in 2050. Sorting
food waste will create stable
levels of mixed MSW in many
provinces
Malav et al. (2020) India - MSW, disposal methods, Descriptive analysis MSW can be used as a renewable
characteristics of MSW (review) source of energy through
62424 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:62421–62430

Table 1 (continued)

Authors Country Time period Variables Methods Main Results

various waste-to-energy (WtE)


technologies. As of
March 2019, India has
installed 138.3 MW of WtE
capacity
Chen et al. (2005) Taiwan 2003–2016 Waste generation, population, Cost analysis The municipality can hardly
personnel costs, operation avoid transporting waste to the
costs, and maintenance costs mainland. It is optimal to
for waste collection and invest in an incineration plant;
disposal doing so will allow them to
buy additional time to
investigate other solid waste
management strategies
Soukiazis and Proença Portugal 2009–2018 Municipal waste generation, Three-stage least squares There is an inverted U-shaped
(2020) gross value-added per head, relationship between waste
recycling level, population and overall production per
age, population density, pro- capita and between recycling
duction structure of the local and waste in Portugal. The el-
economies, and a dummy var- derly population recycles more
iable for crisis that highlights relatively to younger
the years of fiscal consolida- generations, and recycling in-
tion in Portugal creased during the fiscal con-
solidation period
Gidarakos et al. (2006) Greece 2003–2004 MSW, waste composition Physicochemical analysis Materials such as aluminum cans,
of MSW glass bottles, paper, and
plastics packaging materials
are representative
characteristics of intense
tourist activities and
greenhouses operation in the
area
Teh and Cabanban Malasia - Waste management, marine Descriptive analysis The biggest constraint in Pulau
2007 biodiversity, weather and (priori assessment) Banggi (the study’s site) is the
oceanographic conditions, and lack of adequate water and
water resources and sanitation infrastructure.
distribution Although occurring less than
once per hour, blast fishing can
potentially destroy the main
attraction for tourists
Estay-Ossandon and Spain 2000–2014 MSW, resident population, GDP System dynamics model The authors’ model predicts that
Mena-Nieto (2018) per capita, tourist population, and scenario analysis by 2030, the generation of
education level, number of MSW will have increased by
companies, number of houses 15% compared to 2014,
mainly due to the tourist
population’s effect, which is
37.5% higher than the resident
population. Also, the amount
of MSW sent to landfills
would decrease by 40%, and
selective collection would
increase by 30%, compared to
2014

income level, and finally, we estimate the elasticity of waste coefficients vary from one group to another. At the end of the
production according to the independent variables considered. document, we make some policy recommendations based on
Our results show that the magnitudes and significance of the the findings.
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:62421–62430 62425

The rest of the document is structured as follows: the Additionally, Fig. 2 analyzes the generation of MSW (per
“Methodology” section 2 describes the methodology used. capita) by groups of countries. A growing trend can be ob-
The results are analyzed in the “Results” section. The served in the production of waste as the income of the coun-
“Discussion and policy implications” section presents the dis- tries increases. Low-income countries such as Ethiopia,
cussion and policy implications. Uganda, Haiti, and Zimbabwe, among others, produced an
average of 0.1771 tons of solid waste per capita in 2016.
This value is relatively low compared to the garbage produc-
Methodology tion of high-income countries such as Australia, France,
Germany, the USA, and others. The latter generated approx-
Data and variables imately 0.5624 tons of solid waste per person in 2016.
Table 2 shows the results of the estimation of the Eq. (1) by
This study analyzes the generation of municipal solid waste robust OLS. The estimation by robust OLS allows correcting
for 173 countries during 20161. The generation of MSW is the problem of heteroscedasticity. In total, we estimated five
used as a dependent variable. The independent variables used models: a global model with all countries (173) and another
are: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (GDP per capita with a four models grouping the countries according to their income
purchasing power parity adjustment to 2011 to allow for com- levels. The countries’ classification by their income level was
parison across countries), urban population (UP) (measured as made according to the criteria used by the World Bank (World
percent of population living in an urban area), international Bank 2021). Previous studies such as those of Alola and
tourism (IT) (number of incoming international tourists to a Joshua (2020) have followed this strategy. Since the variables
country), and finally, the population (population of each are in logarithms, the estimated coefficients represent the elas-
country). ticities. In general, a good fit is observed in the models, and
MSW data was obtained from the study “What a Waste the signs of the variables are as expected. However, some
2.0” prepared by Kaza et al. (2018). The independent vari- results vary from model to model.
ables were obtained from the World Bank database (WDI The positive sign of GDP indicates that economic growth
2020). positively affects solid waste generation. However, the effect
Our model is specified as follows: is not significant in low-income countries nor lower-middle-
income countries. In high-income countries, a 1% increase in
GDP causes a 0.2978% increase in solid waste production.
This last finding agrees with the results from Namlis and
logðMSW Þ ¼ β0 þ β 1 logðGDPÞ Komilis (2019), which showed that in countries such as
þ β2 logðPOPULATION Þ þ β3 logðUPÞ Greece and Portugal, MSW generation is strongly affected
by the increase in GDP. Likewise, in their study in China,
þ β4 logðIT Þ þ ε ð1Þ Xiao et al. (2020) showed that GDP has a positive effect on
increasing solid waste.
where ε is the stochastic disturbance term, which is nor- The increase in the country’s population causes an increase
mally and independently distributed with zero mean and con- in the production of its municipal solid waste. This effect can
stant variance. The rest of the variables were previously de- be seen in all groups of countries. However, the magnitude of
fined. On the other hand, all the variables were expressed in the coefficients is different between the groups. For example,
terms of logarithms. This decreases the variance of the model in low-income countries, a 1% increase in their population
error. causes only a 0.5921% increase in waste generation. In con-
trast, in high-income countries, a 1% increase in their popula-
tion generates a 1.16% increase in waste generation. In other
Results words, MSW production in these countries is susceptible to
changes in their population. These results are consistent with
Figure 1 shows the generation of MSW per capita worldwide. those of Cheng et al. (2020) in China. The authors showed that
It is observed that the countries with the highest garbage pro- the population size is the main factor responsible for the in-
duction are the USA, Germany, France, Australia, and New crease in MSW generation, especially since China is the coun-
Zealand, among others. In contrast, the countries with the try with the world’s largest population. Furthermore, the study
lowest rate of waste production are mainly in the African by Ley et al. (2002) in the USA found that the demand for
continent and South Asia. solid waste collection and treatment services is directly related
1 to population growth.
Initially, MSW information from 192 countries was accessed during 2016.
However, due to missing data in some variables, the sample was reduced to The percentage of a country’s urban population also affects
173 countries. the amount of solid waste it generates. This issue occurs in
62426 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:62421–62430

Fig. 1 Municipal solid waste


generation (per capita)
worldwide. Elaboration: the
authors

upper and upper-middle-income countries. In general, for ev- Mateu-Sbert et al. 2013). Arbulú et al. (2015), in their study
ery 1% that the urban population increases, MSW generation for 32 European countries, explain that the influx of tourists
will increase by approximately 0.2928%. The results reinforce exerts significant upward pressure on the generation of MSW.
the hypothesis put forward by Cheng et al. (2020). The au- However, this happens up to a certain level of tourists. The
thors showed that in China, for every 1% increase in the urban authors mention that technology plays an essential role in
population percentage, the amount of MSW increases by reversing this relationship (MSW vs. tourists’ flow).
0.313%. This country has experienced rapid urbanization, On the other hand, the results of the goodness of fit and
which suggests that more people are migrating from rural to model specification tests are shown at the end of Table 1. The
urban areas, and thus, the amount of solid waste has increased. R2 of the global model is 0.9625; this implies that approxi-
Furthermore, Vij (2012) showed that in lower-middle-income mately 96.25% of the MSW generation variations are ex-
countries like India, cities with a high urbanization rate tend to plained by the joint variations of GDP, POPULATION, UP,
generate more waste. This result confirms the direct link be- and IT. The p value of the F test indicates that not all the slope
tween urbanization and waste production. coefficients are simultaneously zero; in other words, the null
On the other hand, we find that international tourism in- hypothesis, that the independent variables jointly do not affect
creases the production of solid waste. This outcome occurs in the dependent variable (MSW), is rejected.
all groups of countries, although in different magnitudes. For On the other hand, in small samples, the dependent variable
example, in high-income countries, the elasticity (MSW/IT) is must follow a normal distribution. Compliance with the above
much higher than in low-income countries. allows the statistical t and F tests to be used for inference. We
Previous studies have also shown that tourism increases find that the dependent variable follows a normal distribution
waste generation (Greco et al. 2018; Arbulú et al. 2015; in all the models since the skewness and kurtosis parameters

Fig. 2 Municipal solid waste 0.6


generation (per capita) by groups 0.55
of countries. Elaboration: the 0.5
authors
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
Low Income Lower middle Upper middle High
(LIC) income (LMC) income(UMC) Income(HIC)
MSW generation per
0.1471 0.2245 0.306 0.5624
capita in tons
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:62421–62430 62427

Table 2 Estimated models


Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5
Global L o w Lower middle Upper middle H i g h
income income (LMC) income (UMC) income
(LIC) (HIC)

log(GDP) 0.2537* 0.0786 0.1367 0.2178* 0.2978*


log(POPULATION) 0.6680* 0.5921* 0.6295* 0.7815* 1.1647*
log(UP) 0.2928* 0.1020 0.1823 0.2534** 0.3561*
log(IT) 0.0662*** 0.0532*** 0.0781** 0.0824* 0.1132*
_cons − 4.3982* − 5.9312* − 10.3241* − 4.7328* − 6.4391*
N 173 23 40 48 62
R2 0.9625 0.8662 0.9174 0.9816 0.9833
F 1460.58 27.63 127.34 635.64 846.33
Prob > F 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Normality Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal
(dependent
variable)
Ramsey RESET test 1.02 0.63 0.34 2.01 1.02
Prob > F 0.3910 0.6104 0.7961 0.1286 0.3910
Variance Inflation 5.34 5.42 5.67 5.25 5.39
Factor (VIF)

Significant at *1%, **5%, and ***10%

are consistent with this type of distribution2. In Fig. 3, we rate. The rapid increases in urbanization, economic develop-
present an estimate of the Kernel density to graphically show ment, population, and tourists flow are the main reasons that
the distribution of the global model’s dependent variable. If accelerate waste production, causing different socio-economic
we compare this graph with that of the normal distribution, it and environmental problems (Malinauskaite et al. 2017).
shows that they follow the same pattern. In fact, mismanagement of MSW has negative environ-
We also performed the Ramsey RESET test to test the mental effects and causes public health risks. Therefore, it is
specification of the models. We find probabilities greater than essential to urgently improve waste collection management,
10% in all cases, which is why we conclude that the models segregation, and safe disposal (Malav et al. 2020).
are well specified and do not have omitted variables. Also, the Given this, most countries have tried to implement envi-
VIF test was performed to detect multicollinearity. The mean ronmentally sustainable solutions to improve waste manage-
values are less than 10, so we can affirm that there is no ment and reduce their generation. Understanding and analyz-
multicollinearity between the exogenous variables. ing the factors that affect its production could facilitate this
Finally, Fig. 4 shows the conditional averages of MSW as a task (Cheng et al. 2020).
function of the independent variables (global model). The This research aimed to determine the impact of GDP, pop-
closeness of the point cloud to the estimated line indicates a ulation, urbanization, and the tourists’ flow on municipal solid
good fit of the model. The positive slope matches the expected waste production in 173 countries. Given the heterogeneity of
signs of the coefficients. the regions, we grouped the countries according to their in-
come levels. In total, five models were estimated.
We found that GDP increases MSW production. However,
Discussion and policy implications this only occurs in high- and upper-middle-income countries.
A possible explanation for this could be that consumption in
In recent years, special attention has been paid to studies re- these countries is also high. It is known that consumption is a
lated to the generation of municipal solid waste (MSW). function of income (GDP); therefore, a high GDP would pro-
MSW management continues to be a severe environmental duce a high consumption and therefore a greater generation of
problem worldwide (Malav et al. 2020). In general, countries waste.
(specially developed ones) produce waste at an accelerated A perhaps trivial finding, but not less important, is that the
number of inhabitants increases solid waste generation.
2
The probability of the skewness and kurtosis parameters is respectively 26% However, in high-income countries, the impact is much more
and 73%. The Chi-squared parameter for the joint test of both parameters has a
significant than in low-income countries. The explanation for
probability of 45%.
62428 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:62421–62430

Fig. 3 Kernel density estimate. Kernel density estimate


Elaboration: the authors

.25
.2
.15
Density

.1
.05
0
5 10 15 20
logMSW

Kernel density estimate


Normal density
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.5985

this can be seen in Fig. 2, where it shows that the per capita does not necessarily translate into a significant increase in
production of solid waste in high-income countries is much solid waste generation.
higher than in low-income countries. Likewise, we find that the flow of tourists in a country
On the other hand, the percentage of urban population af- increases its generation of waste. This outcome can be seen
fects MSW production. However, this effect is only signifi- in all groups of countries. However, in high-income countries,
cant in high-income and upper-middle-income countries. In it can be seen that tourism has a more significant impact on
low-income countries, an increase in their urban population waste generation. This result may be due to the tourist flow

Fig. 4 MSW conditional averages as a function of the independent variables. Elaboration: the authors
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021) 28:62421–62430 62429

that these countries have, which is much higher than that of Data availability The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current
study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
low-income countries.
Our findings allow us to recommend some public policies.
For example, it is of utmost importance that countries main- Declarations
tain and enhance their strategies to mitigate MSW’s environ-
Ethics approval Not applicable.
mental impact. This recommendation is primarily aimed at
higher-income countries, as they are the ones that generate Consent to participate Not applicable.
the most garbage. Mitigation strategies must act mainly on
the urban population. Likewise, countries should prioritize Consent for publication Not applicable.
economic growth based on clean technologies, which gener-
ates less impact on the environment. Recycling strategies Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests.
should also be established, and the population should be en-
couraged to use less polluting materials such as cloth bags.
This change would decrease the generation of waste. The
policy should be promoted mainly in low-income countries, References
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