Revitalizing Wind Growth To Power The Energy Transition

REVITALIZING
WIND GROWTH
TO POWER
THE ENERGY
TRANSITION
INDIA WIND ENERGY MARKET
OUTLOOK 2022-2026
GWEC.NET
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Attribution
Renewing wind growth to power the transition: India wind energy market outlook 2026.
Global Wind Energy Council and MEC+, 2022.
Authors
Sidharth Jain (MEC+); Harshal Arekar (MEC+); Rishabh Ranade (MEC+)
Feng Zhao (GWEC); Martand Shardul (GWEC); Francis Jayasurya (GWEC); Anjali
Lathigara (GWEC); Joyce Lee (GWEC); Alex Bath (GWEC)
Report Design
Aspire Design, New Delhi
Image credits
GWEC and partners
2 Revitalizing wind growth to power the energy transition: India Wind Energy Market Outlook 2022-2026
About MEC+
MEC+, also known as MEC MEC+ works with government In India, the market is moving away
Intelligence, is a specialist consulting entities to build strong commercial from MW to MWh wherein flexibility
firm focused on the wind and understanding of areas related to and firmness of power will be the key
renewables sector for 10 years. wind power. Working with GWEC as proposition. Within corporate PPA
MEC+ has a highly skilled team of knowledge partner on India, MEC+ market, MEC+ supports asset owners
consultants with deep understanding publishes the annual wind power in selecting business models and
of turbine technology, integration market outlook and engages in multi- offerings to win orders, backed by
opportunities with battery, hydrogen, stakeholder discussions to promote insight on customer’s alternative and
project supply chains in offshore and wind power. associated contracting risks.
onshore wind, power market design,
financing / bidding / PPA structuring Our clients include largest global . For further queries please visit www.
and regulatory market. wind OEMs, utilities, oil and gas mecintelligence.com or reach out at
companies, Supply chain players, sidharth@mecintelligence.com
MEC+ engages with asset owners Equity funds, and Independent
and supply chain companies on their Service Providers.
investment and growth decisions.
The support provided extends from For more visit insights on www.
building business plans, identification mecintelligence.com/insights.
and mitigation of risks, and managing For queries write to info@
innovation and sales processes at mecintelligence.com in new
client organisation. In India, MEC+ technology innovations in onshore
has supported multiple acquisitions O&M, offshore installations, and
in the market on both supply chain integration with other sources such as
and asset platforms. MEC+ also solar, battery and hydrogen.
offers bidding support and strategy
building for India.
GWEC.NET 3
About GWEC
The Global Wind Energy Council associations, from both established GWEC India was established in 2020
(GWEC) is the global trade and emerging markets, including as a single advocacy and research
association for the wind power the world’s largest markets of the body representing the entire value
industry. Our mission is to ensure that US, all the European markets, India chain of India’s wind industry. GWEC
wind power establishes itself as the and China. India works closely with government
answer to today’s energy challenges, stakeholders, companies and
providing substantial environmental GWEC is actively engaged with adjacent technologies to accelerate
and economic benefits. We work emerging markets to unlock their the momentum around wind power
closely with national governments, wind potential with proven successes development in India and support
policy makers and international in Latin America, Africa, India and the country in achieving its ambitious
institutions to give them transparent also Southeast Asia. GWEC also renewable energy targets.
information about the benefits and works at the highest international
potential of wind power, enabling political level to create a better policy For further queries please visit
them to make informed decisions environment for wind power. www.gwec.net or contact francis.
about national energy policies. Working with the UNFCCC, REN21, jayasurya@gwec.net.
the IEA, international financial
The members of GWEC represent institutions, the IPCC and IRENA,
over 1,500 companies, organisations GWEC advocates for policies to help
and institutions in more than 80 wind power reach its full potential
countries. Our members are also all in as wide a variety of markets as
of the national wind industry trade possible.
Contents
Tables and Figures 6
Abbreviations7
Foreword9
Executive Summary 15
1. India’s wind energy sector: Background 21
2. Wind resource competitiveness 25
3. Current wind market activity 29
i. Project Activity 29
ii. Market Activity 30
4. Future wind installations (2022-2026) 37
i. Central auctions 37
ii. State auctions 43
iii. C&I market 47
5. India wind energy forecast: 2022-2026 51
6. Looking towards 2030 55
GWEC.NET 5
Tables and Figures
Table 1. Traffic- light indicator for future central wind auction segment 37
Table 2. Traffic-light indicator for state wind auction market 44
Table 3. Traffic-light indicator for C&I market 47
Figure 1. Y-o-Y new wind installations in India 2022-26 18

Figure 2. Total wind capacity in India to 2030 22
Figure 3. Recent central policy announcements and their impact 23
Figure 4. Renewables LCOE - 2022 and 2026 26
Figure 5. Requirement of round the clock base power 27
Figure 6. Storage and Battery Pack costs forecast in India (2022-26) 28
Figure 7. Y-o-Y Wind installations (2019-21) 29
Figure 8. Standalone Wind & Hybrid- Total central tenders announced vs capacity awarded 31
Figure 9. Standalone Wind & Hybrid- Total state tenders announced vs capacity awarded 35
Figure 10. New wind demand in central auctions (2022-26) 38
Figure 11. Status of projects awarded in central auction as on date of report publishing (Wind+ Wind component of Hybrid) 39
Figure 12. Central auction pipeline under 3 scenarios 40
Figure 13. Central standalone wind pipeline Tariff & Pipeline vs LCOE Cut-off 41
Figure 14. New wind demand in state auctions (2022-26) 44
Figure 15. Status of projects awarded in state auctions * (Wind+ Wind component of Hybrid auctions) 45
Figure 16. Status of private utility projects awarded*(Wind component of Hybrid auctions) 45
Figure 17. Status of State hybrid policies 49
Figure 18. C&I forecast (2022-26) 49
Figure 19. Y-o-Y new wind installations in India 2022-26 51
Abbreviations
APPC Average Power Purchasing Cost kWh Kilowatt hour TAM Term-Ahead Market
C&I Commercial and Industrial L1 Lowest price TWh Terawatt hour
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy WSH Wind/solar hybrids
CAPEX Capital Expenditure LiDAR Light Detection and Ranging WTG Wind Turbine Generator
COD Commercial Operation Date m Meter
COP Conference of the parties M&A Mergers and Acquisitions
CUF Capacity Utilisation Factor MNRE Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
DAM Day-ahead Market MOP Ministry of Power
DISCOM Distribution Company MW Megawatt
EOI Expression of Interest NIWE National Institute of Wind Energy
EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction NPA Non-Performing Assets
ESG Environment, Safety & Governance OA Open Access
ESS Energy Storage System OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer
FiT Feed-in Tariff PBG Performance Bank Guarantee
GHG Greenhouse Gases PLF Plant Load Factor
GST Goods and Services Tax PPA Power Purchase Agreement
G-TAM Green Term Ahead Market PSA Power Sales Agreement
GW Gigawatt RE Renewable Energy
IEA International Energy Agency RPO Renewable Purchase Obligation
IEX India Energy Exchange RTC Round-the-clock
IPP Independent Power Producer S/s Substation
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency SCD Scheduled Commissioning Date
ISTS Interstate Transmission System SECI Solar Energy Corporation of India
GWEC.NET 7
Foreword
As the world and India continue to India will play a crucial role in considered financially unsustainable
recover from the global pandemic, defining how the aforementioned key must not deter India’s long-term
recent events have brought into even issues are resolved in the coming stand for rapid decarbonization.
sharper focus the twin issues of years. India’s power demand across Increasing the share of wind and solar
clean energy transition and energy all sectors will steadily rise in the energy in the power mix must take
security. Emissions rose to new coming decades. The International precedence in policymaking if India
record levels in 2021 and global Energy Agency (IEA) has projected is to play a leading and constructive
temperatures continue to rise, while a 1.73x growth in power demand role in carrying out the clean energy
the Russian invasion of Ukraine in between 2019 and 2030, in the transition and achieving long-term Ben Backwell
early 2022 has exacerbated inflation India Vision Case (IVC) scenario.1 energy security.
CEO, Global Wind Energy Council
in the renewables supply chain, and State governments and enterprises
sharpened already acute supply are prioritizing the expansion of While India’s policy objectives are
chain challenges in the global wind manufacturing and renewable energy clear and ambitious, as this report
industry. electricity to meet social, climate, and outlines, wind growth in the fourth-
economic goals. largest onshore wind market in the
This is at a time when the world is at world has slowed down in recent
crossroads. There is a narrow window This indicates a critical need to years, largely due to the impacts of
of opportunity to halt irreversible accelerate the deployment of RE the COVID-19 pandemic, supply
damage to the planet and its within this decade, which can support chain challenges, and legacy issues
populations due to climate change. the Government of India’s target to around land and grid availability.
An urgent shift to clean energy is not meet 50% of its energy needs from
just an option – it is the way forward renewable energy sources by 2030. In order to avert the socioeconomic
for building climate resilience and Recent moves to lift coal imports and and environmental costs of delaying
boosting growth. reopen 100 coal mines previously renewable energy deployment
and achieve the government’s
1 https://www.iea.org/reports/india-energy- commitment to scale total wind
outlook-2021
GWEC.NET 9
capacity from 40 GW in 2021 to 140 that need to be imported, that have made land acquisition by the central and state governments
GW by 2030, India’s wind industry as well as engagement with a barrier to development. Recent also reflect a ray of hope. But more
demands an urgent overhaul. There intergovernmental and industry policy interventions to resolve the decisive action is needed to revitalize
are several key actions that this report bodies to secure strategic issue of pending payments are a India’s wind market and guard
highlights to unlock the full potential stockpiles of commodities and welcome step. against prevailing challenges. It is
of wind resources in India in this critical materials required for imperative for high wind potential
decade: large-scale wind growth. 5. Implement an enabling states to evaluate the performance of
environment for the their existing support mechanisms to
1. National and state 3. Repowering offers an successful realization of boost the deployment of standalone
governments must strengthen efficient pathway for India offshore wind and develop and hybrid utility-scale renewable
consensus and coordination to maximize productivity comprehensive state offshore energy solutions.
among various agencies to and socioeconomic benefits wind development roadmaps,
produce a consistent and aligned from sites already designated which can capitalise on the I believe there are three broad
market roadmap. This will help for wind power production. enormous resource potential opportunities ahead: dialogue to
to clarify target volumes and Policymakers should assess the in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. The drive consensus-building between
schedules of procurement, annual volume of wind capacity MNRE has shared an ambitious centre and states, delivery to match
grid balancing needs, and the nearing the end of its lifetime and capacity bidding trajectory timelines and regulations to India’s
composition and conditions for enable repowering via regulatory for offshore wind through targets, and the opportunity to build
new tenders. It is beyond doubt fast tracks. Asset owners 2030. Planning should include India as the destination for global
that innovative mechanisms should be able to undertake integration of offshore wind wind manufacturers and suppliers.
to stabilise procurement and repowering before the end of into state’s long-term energy,
revenue must be urgently the project lifetime, as there may socioeconomic growth and I convey my heartiest congratulations
introduced to ensure sustainable be wider cost efficiencies and decarbonization plans. to the GWEC and MEC+ teams
tariffs and advance the socioeconomic gains associated for this very timely and important
commercial viability of awarded with upgrading technology at an As we look ahead to the next five publication and extend GWEC’s
projects. earlier stage. years, demand in central auctions support to the Government of India to
for hybrid projects and RTC tenders achieve its vision of the transition.
2. Promote technology 4. Address the legacy is giving new prominence to cost-
exchange and alignment with challenges which have competitive and high-productivity
the global wind supply chain, disrupted the development wind generation. The demand for
in order to create export-oriented of wind energy, including reliable green electricity from the C&I
opportunities for the Indian DISCOM payment delays and segment is also rising exponentially,
manufacturing base. This should risks, the inadequacy of grid and with companies and PSUs making
include reconsideration of taxes transmission infrastructure, and firm commitments to renewable
and concessions on components changes in state land policies energy. Recent policy interventions
Foreword
The renewable energy sector has and develop energy security via years ahead of its pledge. This
gone through turbulence over the renewables. has seen the share of solar and
past two years as the pandemic wind in India’s energy mix grow
wreaked havoc on lives and For its part, India has clearly phenomenally. Going forward, fully
economies. Yet, despite facing many reiterated its commitment to the unlocking wind potential for power
challenges, the sector has bounced clean energy shift with Hon’ble Prime generation will be crucial for the
back due to the continuous support Minister Narendra Modi announcing success of India’s, and the world’s,
from the Government of India, which an ambitious non-fossil fuel installed global energy transformation. The
electricity capacity target of 500 GW
has been proactive and has not total wind power capacity in the Sumant Sinha
allowed the pandemic to derail the by 2030 and for India to become country increased at a CAGR of
a net–zero economy by 2070, at Chairperson GWEC India and
renewable energy growth story. 17.5% to 40.4 GW in March 2022 from Founder, Chairman and CEO,
COP26 last year. In addition, India’s just 1167 MW in 2000. ReNew Power Private Limited
Facts speak for themselves. For target to meet 50% of its electricity
instance, India now has achieved requirements from renewable energy As outlined in this edition of the India
a current RE installed capacity of sources by 2030 shows New Delhi’s Outlook, India needs to look beyond
around 160 GW, including large leadership in the titanic global the expansion of onshore wind
hydro. This is inspiring but more— battle against climate change: This energy to explore complementary
much more—needs to be done. The goal itself will reduce the emissions pathways in offshore wind, green
pandemic and its consequences— intensity of India’s economy by 45% energy storage, and the use of wind
and now the unfortunate Russia- and cut a billion tonnes of CO2. energy for fuelling electric vehicles,
Ukraine war and its fallout on energy as well as in the production of green
markets—only strengthens one’s According to the IEA, India has hydrogen. The recent announcement
deep-held belief that it is more already overachieved in meeting its by the Government to India to aim
imperative for the world to adopt commitment made at the COP21 for 37 GW of Offshore Wind capacity
sustainable means to achieve a summit in Paris in 2015 by ensuring addition by 2030 will strengthen the
holistic clean energy transition 40% of its power capacity is already
from non-fossil fuels; almost nine
GWEC.NET 11
sector and contribute notably to the This edition of India Outlook rightly
country’s 500 GW target. emphasizes the need for greater
clarity about the energy transition,
Given this backdrop, innovative building energy security, and refining
strategies are needed to mitigate the respective roadmaps of the
issues faced by the wind sector Central and state governments for
around infrastructure access and the wind energy sector. This report
availability such as land acquisition is also an admirable effort towards
and questions about the grid resource bringing together key wind sector
availability and financial health of stakeholders to create a greater
ailing DISCOMs. Identification of consensus on priorities that will boost
high-impact opportunities—offshore both India’s Nationally Determined
wind, as well as aligning the wind Contributions through larger
sector to complement ‘Aatmanirbhar deployment of wind capacity, as well
Bharat’—must be prioritized by the as GDP growth via enhanced private
Central and state governments. This sector participation. I congratulate
will accelerate wind deployment in GWEC India and our MEC+
a sustainable manner to quicken the colleagues for this very important and
pace of India’s transition, which is a thought-provoking publication.
must if we are to hit our climate goals.
Foreword
India’s power market is undergoing India’s track record has indicated that got stronger in 2021. Wind solar
change at a rapid pace. There have the wind installation market is a lumpy hybrid project PPAs have been on
been series of announcements from market. For time-bound execution the rise, especially within corporate
the government that, if implemented, of pipeline projects, grid, land, procurement contracts. Additionally,
can make any long term forecast regulations, and demand need to DISCOMs are likely to shift towards
redundant. This report was prepared align. A considerable momentum has a combination of wind and storage
during the period of March 2021 to been built in the pipeline since 2017- to meet their peak requirements.
May 2022. Since then, the government 2018. However, inordinate delays in India as a supply hub for wind
has already announced new RPO project execution have challenged OEMs has also gotten stronger with Sidharth Jain
trajectory, Green Open Access the assumptions of developers. These larger turbines being supplied out
Founder and CEO, MEC+
Rules, General network access have been caused by delays in of the country as well as new players
rules, strategy for offshore wind, signing the power supply agreements, emerging in the market for domestic
policy on supporting the build out delays in securing land, and delays supply.
of hydrogen infrastructure. The in getting the grid augmented at the
government is also likely to table right level. Although steps have been Our method of forecasts relies
the Electricity (Amendment) Bill taken to resolve these issues, which on project by project counting of
2022 in the monsoon session of the could have led to the installations pipeline status and the changes in
parliament. Although these changes taking off once again – the industry budgets available for procurement
impact the overall headline potential now faces supply pressures. The of power with utilities. This year’s
of installations, the year-to-year combined pressure of extremely report uses our 2021 expectations
installations are subject to the pipeline competitive bidding levels and rapid of pipeline build out as a starting
in place, its development in short inflation have put many projects in the point and goes into the reasons and
term, and how various stakeholders pipeline at risk. This can potentially themes that impacted installations. It
interact to bring the installations to the derail the installations again. then takes those lessons to direct on
market. what to expect in the years ahead to
Despite all the challenges – wind’s indicate how the project pipeline will
position as a complement to solar actualize in the forecast period.
GWEC.NET 13
The report is divided into four
sections:
1. Section I: India’s wind energy
sector background – Briefly
describes the historical
development and targets in the
market. Highlights impact on
role of wind due to key policy
announcements by government
2. Section II: Wind competitiveness
– Compares the generation costs
from wind, round the clock power
solutions and other dominant
electricity generation sources
in India, today and in future.
Highlights the supply chain issues
impacting generation cost of wind.
3. Section III: Current wind market
activity – Discusses progress on
wind project installations along with
challenges in deployment. Also,
evolution in tender conditions with
auction activity of wind and hybrids
in 2021- 2022 are highlighted
4. Section IV: Future Installations –
Describes drivers and inhibitors
in each market segment (Central
activity, State activity and C&I) and
their impact on installations till
2026, along with MEC+ forecasts
Happy reading!
Executive Summary
The decarbonization of India’s power zero emissions by 2070 and a 500 A slowdown in recent wind growth
sector, including the phaseout of coal GW RE generation target by 2030.
and fossil fuels and the acceleration This builds on top of the current RE In spite of the high potential, the wind
of renewable energy (RE), will be a target of 175 GW by 2022. industry installations have slowed
key factor for India’s overall energy down in India. In our Market Outlook
transition. Power generation is a Wind power makes up a major share to 2025 last year4, we anticipated
major source of greenhouse gas of the RE generation mix in India, 2.3 GW of wind installations in
(GHG) emissions in the country, with 37.7%3 (40.1 GW) of cumulative 2021 owing to a large pipeline and
comprising ~56% of India’s total installed RE capacity as of March multiple policy interventions to ease
emissions2. India’s power demand is 2022. The country is home to high execution bottlenecks. However,
further expected to grow at 6% yearly potential of 302 GW technical onshore wind project activity was lower than
towards 2030, driven by economic wind resource at 100m height and expected in 2021 with 1.45 GW of
growth, which will continue to drive 695 GW technical onshore wind wind installations. Project activity
emissions upward without rapid resource at 120m. In offshore wind, was impacted by delays, due to
displacement of fossil fuels by RE. India is home to 174 GW of technical the second wave of COVID-19 and
resource across fixed-bottom and supply chain-related disruptions. To
Over the last decade, India’s floating potential, mainly off the coasts counter these disruptions, MNRE
RE capacity has expanded by of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. Together granted a blanket timeline extension
more than 5 times, as the country with cost-competitiveness and for 7.5 half months after scheduled
moves toward long-term plans for resource complementarity for round- commissioning date (SCD) for
decarbonization of the power sector. the-clock (RTC) solutions, this makes projects with power purchase
The Government of India reinstated wind energy a critical link in India’s agreements (PPAs) signed before
its long-term commitment to clean power sector transition. June 2021, which pushed SCD of 0.7
energy at COP26 in November 2021, GW projects to 2022.
announcing a pledge to reach net
2 “India- Third Biennial Update Report to The United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change” : Ministry of Environment, Forest and 3 As on March 2022 as per CEA monthly installed 4 https://gwec.net/india-wind-energy-market-
Climate Change, Government of India, 2021 capacity report outlook-2025/
GWEC.NET 15
The slowdown has been witnessed In 2021, the Solar Energy Corporation
since the advent of the auction regime of India (SECI) awarded 2.4 GW of
in 2017 to award tenders. The new standalone wind tenders, which were
scheme led to large orders but highly oversubscribed in contrast with the
competitive bids. Subsequently, past 2 years, when the subscribed
the market has concentrated wind volumes for standalone wind tenders
projects around a few substations were 50-80%. In 2022, 1.1 GW
of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, which standalone wind tender of tranche
were home to the strongest resource XII was awarded. During period
potential and lowest cost of land. This of January 2021 to date of report
created bottlenecks and slowed down publishing, 1.65 GW of standalone
project activity. In the meanwhile, the wind tenders are issued but yet to be
cost of solar based power continued awarded.
to go down – creating a wider gap
with wind-based energy and hence During period of 2021 to date of
delays in signing of Power Supply publishing of report, SECI awarded
Agreements for already auctioned 2.65 GW of wind/solar hybrid (WSH)
projects. tenders which were oversubscribed
in line with WSH tenders in 2020.
Renewed appetite for wind investment Also, during this period 0.6 GW WSH
amid evolving market dynamics and tender (0.15 GW wind component)
move to hybrid projects issued by NTPC is yet to be awarded.
The announcement of waivers to open
The Government of India made access (OA) charges as part of WSH
multiple interventions to resolve policies by some states, along with
the current impasse in the industry ISTS waivers by the Ministry of Power
by improving tender conditions (MoP), has piqued the interest of
and introducing tenders for hybrid developers in WSH projects.
projects during 2021. 2021 saw
activity in tenders across the three The evolution of tender conditions as
market segments – central, state, and per changing market scenarios has
corporate market for wind and hybrid led to renewed interest of developers
projects. in wind and WSH auctions. Some key
changes to tender conditions in latest
auctions included the specification
of procurers before the auction, will remain crucial for the growth of pipeline of central and state markets
diversification of land and grid from hybrid volume. to 11.4 GW in the base case.
Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, removal of
tariff caps and encouragement of New and legacy supply chain Achieving an ambitious scenario of
repowering of exiting projects. challenges lead to a lower base case wind growth by 2026
During 2021 to date of report Foreign and domestic turbine original The major driver for future
publishing, Gujarat has awarded 0.5 equipment manufacturers (OEMs) installations is the renewable
GW of standalone wind capacity and are facing cost pressures due to cost purchase obligations (RPO)
Maharashtra has awarded 0.3 GW inflation of related raw materials and notified by the central and the state
standalone wind and 0.5 GW WSH critical wind turbine components, government in India. Until June 2022,
capacities. Additionally, 0.5 GW (0.25 such as steel and nickel. Supply chain the RPO trajectory by the central
GW wind component) assured peak disruptions caused by the pandemic, government was until the financial
power tender of Gujarat and 0.8 GW followed by the geopolitical tensions year 2022. In July, MoP announced a
(0.15 GW wind component) WSH from the invasion of Ukraine, have new trajectory till 2030 with separate
tender of RUMSL-Madhya Pradesh led to an increase in global logistics wind RPO to carve out additional
are issued but yet to be awarded. costs. Finally, a recent surge in Goods demand for wind technology. This
This is in contrast with muted activity and Services Tax (GST) has further is a welcome move to provide focus
observed in state auctions during aggravated turbine costs. on the Wind related procurement in
2020. India. The forecast will be dependent
In tandem with legacy infrastructure on the response of states to new MoP
Hybrid projects driving the pipeline challenges related to grid availability RPO trajectory. The current forecast
and land allocation proving to be in this report is based on the way the
India currently has a pipeline persistent, the challenging supply states have been adopting the central
of 13.4 GW in central and state chain scenario is likely to impact the government RPO in their planning.
markets, which is expected to existing pipeline. Our initial estimates on the impact
drive installations until 2024 in the of new RPO trajectory indicates that
market. The market post-2024 is Further project cancellations of ~
if these are implemented by states
likely to be driven by new capacity 2GW in central projects are expected
as intended it will reduce the base
awarded to wind, majorly in hybrid in the base case, as the focus on low-
market outlook scenarios by ~2%.
formats. The linking of utility-scale cost bidding (L1 prices) in the current
(See Note box 04)
wind and solar technology will be a tender design has left no room to
crucial lever for volumes in 2024-25. absorb inflationary pressure on wind Considering the current patterns in
Notification of new tenders and price projects. This emerging supply chain which state utilities are procuring
competitiveness of hybrid tenders scenario will restrict the current RPO, over 2022-26, India is expected
GWEC.NET 17
to install nearly 19.4 GW of wind
Figure 1. Y-o-Y new wind installations in India 2022-265
capacity, 76% of which will come
from central tenders, followed
GW Installations
by state utility markets and lastly
Ambitious Base case Conservative 2022-26 Scenario definitions
corporate procurement.
5.4 Active pipeline has no impact of surge in
In the conservative scenario, net 23.7 GW
turbine costs and is commissioned by 2024;
4.9 Remaining demand of state DISCOMs is
volume installations dip to 15 GW as 4.7
fulfilled by new annual auctions of ~9 GW for
the existing pipeline shrinks due to 4.4 4.3
4.6 hybrid till 2024; C&I installations for wind and
4.1
the impact of supply chain scenario hybrid scale with supportive central policies
by 2026
and new auctions being limited or 4.0 4.0
3.7 Active pipeline impacted with ~10% rise in
sporadic. However, in an ambitious 3.5 turbine costs making projects of tariffs below
19.4 GW
scenario, nearly 23.7 GW of volumes 3.2 INR 2.7/kWh unfeasible; remaining demand
2.9 of state DISCOMs is fulfilled by new annual
are installed over the next five years, 2.3
auctions of ~6 GW for hybrid till 2024; C&I
driven mostly by high demand for Future auctions are expected to be installations regain pre-2019 levels for wind
2.2 dominated by wind solar hybrid projects
price-competitive hybrid auctions and ~1 GW annual hybrid installations
which will replace wind auctions expected from 2024 - 2026
across India, as well as an easing of
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
supply chain challenges allowing Active pipeline impacted with more than
~18% rise in turbine costs making projects of
complete and on-time actualization Peak in installations Installations stabilize 15.0 GW
Majority of active pipeline is tariffs below INR 2.8/kWh unfeasible;
in 2024 with expiry with annual hybrid remaining demand of state DISCOMs is
of the current pipeline. commissioned until 2024; Base
of ISTS waive-offs auctions, where wind
case and conservative case fulfilled through new annual auctions of ~ 4
in June 2025 ; C& I plays critical role; GW for hybrid; C & I growth is constant fairly
projects will be impacted due
hybrid installations reduction due to phasing driven by annual hybrid installations of ~ 0.5
to surge in turbine costs
will peak out of ISTS waivers GW from 2024 - 2026
Note: As per calendar years; Wind component of hybrid projects have been considered as a part of forecast; wind component of 0.4 GW RTC I, 0.25
GW RTC II and 1.2 GW peak power tenders have been included in the forecast; Tenders issued by PSUs have not been considered in forecast
Source: State ARRs; RPO documents; PGCIL; NTC and RTC Meeting minutes; credit rating report; CEA; SECI; MEC+ analysis
5 MEC+ insights based on primary interviews with Turbine OEMs in India. Also validated as per S & P Global quarterly report with ~18-20% hike in turbine costs as pessimistic
case in 2021-2022 in comparison with 2020. As per IEA estimates, 10-25% increase is visible in wind turbine costs depending on country and region.
Towards 2030, the wind market offers 2. Promote technology 4. Address the legacy
multiple green shoots including exchange and alignment challenges which have
offshore wind procurement, onshore to the global wind supply disrupted development
wind repowering frameworks and chain, in order to create export- of wind energy, including
the development of a robust wind oriented opportunities for the DISCOM payment delays and
export hub in India to serve the Indian manufacturing base. This risks, inadequacy of grid and
Asia-Pacific region, which can ease could include reconsideration transmission infrastructure and
some of the cost challenges for of taxes and concessions on changes in state land policies
OEMs in the country. As well, there components which need to be which have made land acquisition
is large untapped potential of the imported, as well as working with a barrier to development.
largest commercial and industrial intergovernmental and industry
(C&I) consumers and companies with bodies to secure strategic 5. Finalise and implement
RE100 commitments in India, which stockpiles of commodities and offshore wind development
could unlock further RE demand critical materials required for roadmaps, which can capitalise
within certain states. large-scale wind growth. on the enormous resource
potential in Gujarat and Tamil
To unlock the full potential of wind 3. Repowering offers an Nadu. This should include
resource in India, we recommend the efficient pathway for India implementation of plans to
following actions: to maximize productivity absorb capacities that are likely
and socioeconomic benefits to be added as part of the 37 GW
1. National and state from sites already designated offshore wind tender trajectory
governments must strengthen for onshore wind power notified the government. Also,
consensus and coordination production. Policymakers elements constituting necessary
among various agencies to should assess the annual volume enabling environment must be
produce a consistent and aligned of wind capacity nearing end of identified and rolled out.
market roadmap. This can help lifetime and enable repowering
to clarify target volumes and via regulatory fast tracks. Asset
schedules of procurement, owners should be able to
grid balancing needs and the undertake repowering before
composition and conditions for the end of project lifetime,
new tenders. as there may be wider cost
efficiencies and socioeconomic
gains associated with upgrading
technology at an earlier stage.
GWEC.NET 19
1. India’s wind energy sector:
Background
Wind will play an important role in 14.3% over the past decade7. At 837 India’s total emissions10. With national This included a target of 500 GW
the global power sector transition to GW8 cumulative installed capacity power demand expected to grow at a of non-fossil fuel-based electricity
achieve net-zero goals as of 2021, wind energy accounts for CAGR of 6% from 1,276 TWh in 2021 generation capacity, meeting
~26% of total global RE installations. to 2,172 TWh by 2030, India needs 50% of energy requirements from
The global power sector is witnessing Wind energy will play a key role to prepare for decarbonisation of the renewables, reduction of 1 billion
a momentous transformation as the in the achievement of net zero power sector to meet its transition tonnes emissions from 2021 and
world moves towards a decarbonised targets by 2050, as per International goals11. RE remains the central axis reduction of carbon intensity of the
future. COP26 in November 2021 Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) of energy supply planning to meet economy by 45%. Also, a long-term
was a milestone event where 151 and International Energy Agency increasing demand and cross-sector commitment to achieve net zero
countries announced decarbonisation (IEA) roadmaps for a 1.5°C pathway decarbonisation needs in India. emissions by 2070 was announced.
goals and commitments to achieve published last year, with wind energy
carbon neutrality by 2050 and keep being the major electricity generation Over the last decade, India’s RE High resource potential makes wind
global warming within 1.5°C. With source with roughly 8000 GW capacity has expanded by more than energy a key source for India’s power
25% of GHG emissions in 2020 proposed installations by 20509. 5 times, as the country moves toward sector transition
originating from the power sector6, long-term plans for decarbonization
the shift to renewable electricity, The GHG emissions scenario in India of the power sector. India reinstated India has over two decades of
widescale electrification, energy follows the global trend, as power its commitment to clean energy experience in harnessing power
efficiency and other measures are generation is the major source of at COP26 in 2021, with the Prime through grid-connected wind
key drivers of the transition. emissions, contributing to ~56% of minister announcing Panchamrit, or energy. Between 2010-2011 and
five firm targets to meet by 2030. 2019-2020, wind energy in India
Global RE installations have increased experienced a CAGR of 11.39%
at a rapid pace, with a growth rate of 10 “India- Third Biennial Update Report to The United while overall installed electricity
Nations Framework Convention on Climate
7 “Renewable Capacity Statistics 2021”: IRENA Change” : Ministry of Environment, Forest and capacity witnessed a CAGR of
8 “GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2022”:GWEC Climate Change, Government of India,2021
6 Emissions by Sector; “Greenhouse Gas Emissions 9 “Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap”: IEA; “World 11 As per the India Vision Case in the International
from Energy: Overview”: IEA Energy Transitions Outlook”: IRENA Energy Agency’s India Energy Outlook 2021
GWEC.NET 21
8.78%12. Wind power continues to Figure 2. Total wind capacity in India to 2030
be a major constituent of India’s
GW Installed Base Targets
power generation mix and constitutes
37.7%13 (40.1 GW) of cumulative
installed RE capacity, as of March
2022. India contributes 5.1%14 to total 140
global onshore wind installations, +15%
making it the world’s fourth-largest
100
onshore wind market.
+5%
The National Institute of Wind Energy +13% 60
(NIWE), the autonomous research and
36 38 39 40
development institution of the Indian 32 34
23 27
20 21
Ministry of New and Renewable
Energy (MNRE), has estimated wind
power potential at 100m height 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027 2030
as 302 GW15 – almost 81% of the
country’s current installed electricity
generation capacity. In offshore wind, drastically slowed down to a 5% To revive growth in the wind
India is home to 174 GW of technical growth rate, in comparison with ~13% market and promote RE, the Indian
resource across fixed-bottom and growth over the period of 2012-2016. government announced new policies
floating potential, mainly off the coasts During 2017-2019 a slowdown is and market mechanisms in 2021.
of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. Together witnessed as competitive bidding was In July 2022, MoP has announced
with cost-competitiveness and introduced and multiple wind policy RPO trajectory till 2030 to showcase
resource complementarity for round- changes were implemented. Also, roadmap for achieving target of 500
the-clock (RTC) solutions, this makes slowdown in 2020-2021 is due to the GW of renewable generation capacity.
wind energy a critical link in India’s impact of the first and second waves
power sector transition. of the COVID-19 pandemic and wind
supply chain disruptions during
Over the last five years (2017-2021),
monsoon season.
wind energy installations have
12 Based on CEA’s Growth of Electricity Sector in
India from 1947-2020
13 As on March 2022 as per CEA monthly installed
capacity report
14 “GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2022”:GWEC
15 “India’s Wind Potential Atlas”: NIWE
Figure 3. Recent central policy announcements and their impact
High Low
Aug’20 – Oct’21 Nov’21 Jan’22 Feb’22 May’22 June’22 July’22
Policy/ Introduction of Cabinet GNA and Green

ISTS Waiver Green Hydrogen MoP
market GDAM & GTAM approval of REC Mechanism open access
extension Policy, 2022 trajectory
mechanism at IEX and PXIL GEC phase 2 rules
• RE Projects • Facilitate grid • Excess RECs
• Allows for Day commissioned • Objective of GNA : • RPO trajectory
integration and can be traded
Ahead and before June decarbonising • Provide non- till 2030 inline
power by C&I
Term Ahead 2025, will be hard to abate discriminatory with 500 GW
evacuation of consumers and
contracts to be eligible for ISTS sectors access of target till 2030
Features of ~20 GW of RE Distribution
traded for power waiver for 25 ISTS system • Separate wind
power projects • Land allocation companies
policies/ generated from RPO to carve
years in 7 states incentives and • REC price
market Renewable Green OA : out additional
• ISTS waiver • Strengthen grid availability flexibility
mechanisms energy projects Ease approval demand
applicable for intrastate for renewable through power process and
including wind • Separate Hydro
C&I projects and network of key energy projects trade provision of
and hybrids on and energy
G-TAM/ G-DAM RE states with set for green • No expiry date banking , OA
the spot market storage
markets till June INR 120 billion hydrogen of REC until charges incentive
at IEX obligation
2025 investments production compliance for RE projects
Impact of policy/market mechanism on wind and hybrid installations
Scale of
installations
Duration of
impact
Note: ‘Scale of Installations’ refers to impact on wind and hybrid installations due to policy; ‘Duration of These recent policy announcements will
Impact’ refers to long/medium/short term impact of policy; favour a gradual shift of RE installations
Source: MNRE; Newspaper articles; MEC+ analysis
from standalone wind and solar projects to
hybrid installations in the medium term for
central auctions and the C&I segment.
GWEC.NET 23
2. Wind resource competitiveness
Cost competitiveness and resource pressures due to cost inflation of manufacturing from 5% to have surged by more than 75%18
complementarity for RTC solutions related raw materials and critical 12%, and the elimination or over 2021-22. So, the cost differential
make wind an attractive resource in wind turbine components. Steel revision of Customised Custom between renewables and coal power
comparison with conventional sources is a major component used Duty Concession benefits has plants is expected to remain the
in turbine manufacturing. The increased upward pressure on same towards 2026, as wind turbine
Wind is an attractive, cost- resurgence of steel demand wind LCOE. technology is expected to improve in
competitive, and utility-scale resource from the pandemic, shipping India with the launch of more efficient
Legacy challenges: Legacy
in India, despite current supply chain disruptions and increased power and advanced models by turbine
challenges such as unavailability
challenges. On average, wind LCOE outages in mainland China have OEMs, decreasing the per MW
of adequate power evacuation
is 40% lower than most coal plants led to an increase in commodity CAPEX (see figure 4).
and transmission infrastructure,
operating in the country, providing prices inclusive of steel, with delays in clearances and permits
much needed renewable electricity at expected prices to be 25-30% Solar shall remain a cost-competitive
and land acquisition among
affordable rates16. higher than 2021, which was still and complementary resource
others continue to push project
higher than the previous years. alongside wind towards 2026. As
Our earlier projections envisaged implementation costs at higher
wind has stronger capacity utilization
wind LCOE to reach INR 2.6/kWh by Supply chain disruptions: level.
factors (CUFs), a more consistent
2022. However, LCOE price in 2022 Supply chain instability caused
While the wind turbine prices has daily generation profile, lower societal
is expected to be in the range of INR by the pandemic and the impact
increased by ~12-18%17, coal prices costs, lower marginal costs for
2.8-3.3/kWh, owing to the following of the invasion of Ukraine have
dispatch and lower balancing costs,
key reasons: led to availability issues of
wind is an attractive proposition as
cargo ships and a spike in fuel 17 MEC+ insights based on primary interviews with
Surge in commodity prices: Turbine OEMs in India. Also validated as per S a standalone solution over solar in
costs, resulting in an increase in
Turbine OEMs are facing cost & P Global quarterly report with ~18-20% hike in many conditions.
logistics prices. turbine costs as pessimistic case in 2021-2022 in
comparison with 2020. As per IEA estimates, and
16 Referencing coal-based plants typically located Increase in tax rates: Surge in IEA Renewables report 10-25% increase is visible
500 km from domestic coal mines but using in wind turbine costs depending on country and 18 Representative price comparison over 2021-2022
domestic coal as fuel. GST rates for wind components region. by Ministry of Coal
GWEC.NET 25
Wind and solar together have to conventional sources with LCOE
complementary generation profiles in the range of INR 3.7-4.0/kWh. By
in terms of the time of the day and 2026, the viability of this round the
seasonality. In all seven high wind clock solution (WSH + storage) will
potential states, solar resource depend on the reduction of battery
availability is also high. Hence, wind storage prices (see Note Box 2).
and solar hybrid projects bring
greater benefit to the consumer in
Figure 4. Renewables LCOE - 2022 and 2026
terms of substituting 55-70% of grid
power in comparison with 40-45%
LCOE comparison of sources (new vs new), 2022 and 2026
CUF of standalone wind19. INR/kWh
When comparing LCOE of all sources 2022 2026

of power generation in 2022, wind 7.8 Imported Fuel
is the second-cheapest renewable
energy source in the range INR 6.1 Imported fuel
2.8-3.3/kWh, which is 40% lower
than conventional sources of energy. 4.0 4.8 Domestic far 4.8 Domestic far
This is followed by WSH having an 3.3 4.0 Pit-head
3.9 Pit-head
3.0 3.1
LCOE between standalone solar and 2.7
2.5 3.7 2.4 2.5
wind sources in the range of INR Max
2.8 40%
Min 2.7 2.8 40%
2.8-3.3/kWh in 2022 – this is further 2.3 cheaper
2.2 2.1 2.2 cheaper
expected to fall by 2026 in line with
the reduction in wind prices. (See
Figure 4)
WSH coupled with battery storage Solar Wind WSH WSH + Coal Solar Wind WSH WSH + Coal
provides RTC solution for consumers Storage Storage
(see Note Box 1). As of 2022, high

battery costs mean this solution still Note: Wind and solar LCoE calculations done at 12% internal rate of return, and coal calculations done at 14% return on equity. Developer assumptions
for WSH + Storage: IRR – 12%, Solar – 25% CUF, Wind – 40% CUF
needs to gain in competitiveness Does not include transmission and distribution charges for any source
compared to conventional sources. Pit-head are coal plants using domestic coal and located near the mine; domestic far plants also use domestic coal but are located far from the
However, WSHs with battery mine (~500 km); Imported fuel plants make use of imported Australian coal
New vs New: Implies comparison of new coal being commissioned in 2020 and 2025 with wind and solar commissioning in same years
storage solutions are comparable Source: CEEW; BNEF; Lazard; MEC+ analysis
19 MEC+ estimates based on existing hybrid project
Note Box 1: Procurement of Round the Clock (RTC) Power
Figure 5. Requirement of round the clock base power
Typical demand curve of DISCOMs
135
DISCOM Needs
Round the clock power
130 2 • Base power supply running
Peak majority time of the day to serve
Power night lean; generating 24 X7
125
2 Peak • CUF requirements:
GW
Power – Annual: 75-80%

120 3
– Monthly: 75-70%
Firm & Flexible power – Hourly: 60-70%
115
• Replacement of Thermal power
1
generation to a large extension,
Round-the-clock/ Base power
110 operating at CUFs above 50-60%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 annually
Hours
Need for RTC power RTC power - Market activity
Distribution companies (DISCOMs) require sources of 24/7 power In Oct 2021 the second RTC tender (RE bundled with Thermal) was
supply for efficient supply planning. Due to variability in generation, auctioned. Despite full subscription, 0.25 GW was awarded due to
standalone RE sources are unable to provide RTC power, so they are inability of winners to match L1 bid levels, as needed by the tender
currently dependent on conventional sources such as coal to meet RTC terms. The remaining 2.25 GW capacity is to be reauctioned in 2022 with
power requirements. revised provisions. The tender is subsequent to the RTC-I tender of 0.4
GW and assured peak-power tender of 1.2 GW awarded in 2020.
Also, DISCOMs require a firm and consistent supply of RE power
to maintain grid stability, so there needs to be a balancing power With the high LCOE costs of ESS storage solutions, currently India sees
which can offset variability of renewables. Combining RE with other the majority of RTC blending of RE with thermal projects. Declining ESS
renewable or conventional sources such as energy storage systems costs in the future will enable RTC tenders and projects to source 100% of
(ESS), wind/solar, thermal, or hydro is required for 24/7 power supply. energy from RE sources.
GWEC.NET 27
Note Box 2: Decline in battery costs by 2026
Lithium-Ion battery pack prices, which were $186/kWh However, in the medium to long-term battery pack
in 2018, have decreased sharply at a CAGR of -8% costs are expected to decline at a CAGR of -9% until
to $132/kWh in 2021. Contrary to the trend, battery 2026 and dip below the $100/kWh mark in the year.
pack costs increased slightly to $135/kWh in 2022, This will lead to decline in co-located storage costs at
driven by the increased costs of key raw materials like a CAGR of -6% until 2026.
electrolytes and rising commodity prices are putting
pressure on the storage industry. The expected fall in battery prices by 2026 would
make WSH combined with storage a viable
proposition in comparison with conventional
generation sources for RTC power generation.
Figure 6. Storage and Battery Pack costs forecast in India (2022-26)

Forecast
St orage Cost s (2018-26) Co-located Storage Cost* Bat t er y P ack Cost s (2018-26) Cost of Battery Pack
USD/kWh Standalone Storage Cost* USD/kWh
253 -6% -8%

236 186
-9%
140 135
207 -6% 132
202 116
190
185 183 94
166
161
144
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2018 2020 2021 2022 2024 2026
Note: *includes cost of Battery Pack, BoS Hardware, BoS Inverter, Soft costs, EPC
Source: “Estimating the Cost of Grid-Scale Lithium-Ion Battery Storage in India” Berkely Lab; Bloomberg NEF; MEC+ analysis
3. Current wind market activity
Project and market activity was which took place during 2017-2019
Figure 7. Y-o-Y Wind installations (2019-21)
challenged by the second wave of the constituted 1.2 GW of central auction
COVID-19 pandemic, but recovered in wind energy projects. Gujarat state GW C&I Central
H2 2021 projects constituted ~0.15 GW State
capacity and ~0.1 GW capacity came 2.07
i. Project Activity from C&I installations in 2021.
0.28 +28%
Wind project activity in India was Growth slowdown due to delays and 1.45
0.52
lower than expected in 2021, with cancellations 0.11
1.14 0.15
1.45 GW of wind installations despite 0.07
a large, expected pipeline of 2.3 GW. At the beginning of 2021, we
0.33
Delays caused by the second wave of expected 14 projects of nearly 2.3
GW of wind capacity to come online 1.27 1.20
the COVID-19 pandemic and supply
within the year. However, 3 projects 0.74
chain-related disruptions led to a
slowdown in projects commissioned of ~0.7 GW have been delayed to
during 2021. 2022. These were delayed due to 2019 2020 2021
the second wave of the COVID-19
Wind installations were driven pandemic and wind supply chain
by central auction capacities disruptions due to heavy monsoons
with more than 80% (1.2 GW) of in 202120. To counter these issues
projects commissioned in 2021. The in addition to delays caused by first
remaining 0.25 GW projects were wave, the MNRE granted a blanket
commissioned from state tenders 20 “Time-extension in Scheduled Commissioning Date
and C&I segments (see figure 7). of Wind Energy Projects considering disruption due
to post-COVID supply chain and monsoon related
SECI Tranche II, III, IV and VI auctions disruptions”: MNRE order; dtd. March 17, 2022.
GWEC.NET 29
timeline extension of 7.5 months21 to pipeline projects as delays in grid ii. Market Activity 1.1 GW was awarded under SECI
all projects which signed PPAs before availability impact multiple projects. tranche XII in 2022. Also in 2022,
June 2021. The projects which have been The evolution of tender conditions and additional 1.2 GW of wind tenders
impacted in 2021 include a central support for complementarity of wind under tranche XIII and 0.15 GW
As on date of report publishing, auction project under SECI VI of ~0.3 for hybrids have renewed interest under NTPC were issued and was yet
~8.4 GW projects from state and GW and a state auction project of for wind energy under the e-reverse to be awarded at the time of report
central auctions have signed PSAs. ~0.1 GW in Gujarat. Further, the only auction mechanism publishing.
Around ~6.4 GW of central projects remaining central auction project
are under construction stage with under SECI V has been delayed due Central auction activity – SECI tranche X and XI tenders of 2.4
PSAs already signed by states. Out of to grid availability issues. On the Standalone wind projects GW were oversubscribed by more
these projects, ~3.6 GW are expected positive side, no central and state than 2.5 times with a tariff range
to be installed in 2022 and ~1 GW SECI’s standalone wind projects have of INR 2.7-2.77/kWh, marking the
projects have faced cancellations in
in 2023, in case the ongoing supply been oversubscribed in 2021, an revival of market activity in central
2021.
chain challenges do not worsen. improvement from the last two years standalone wind auctions. Despite, the
Similarly, ~1.8 GW of state projects Going forward, a further 1.2 GW when subscribed volumes were continued oversubscription in SECI
are under construction and expected projects with SCD in 2023, including almost 50-80%. tranche XII, the awarded capacity
to come online by 2025. ~0.6 GW of central auction projects stood at 1.1GW vs 1.2 GW tender, this
In 2021, 3 tranches of SECI auctions
under SECI tranche IV & VI and ~0.6 was due the criteria of cut-off at L1
The highly competitive bids seen totalling 3.6 GW and 1 auction of
GW of state projects in Tamil Nadu bid price+2% capping for discovered
in previous SECI tranches have led NTPC totalling 0.3 GW were issued
and Maharashtra are expected to be wind tariffs (range of INR 2.89-2.94/
to concentration of wind projects for standalone wind projects; out of
delayed. The reasons for uncertainty kWh).
in a few substations of Gujarat and these, 2.4 GW was awarded under
can be attributed to land allocation
Tamil Nadu, as they have the highest SECI tranche X & XI in 2021 and
challenges and delays in grid
resource potential and lowest cost availability22. T
of land. But concentration in these
two states has led to significant Further project cancellations are
delays and associated cost over- expected in the existing project
runs. This can be seen through pipeline as the focus on low-cost SECI’s standalone wind projects have been oversubscribed
delays in commissioning of Bhuj II, bidding (L1 prices) in current tender in 2021, an improvement from the last two years when
Jam Khambhaliya and Tirunelveli design has left no room to absorb
extension projects in 2021. Also, the inflationary pressure on wind projects subscribed volumes were almost 50-80%.
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (see Note Box 3 regarding the impact
is reported to be higher on existing on the existing pipeline).
21 MNRE orders on timeline extension of projects: 22 CERC Developer petitions for project extensions
Order1: May 2021; Order 2: March,2022 and cancellations.
Figure 8. Standalone Wind & Hybrid- Total central tenders announced vs capacity awarded
Standalone Wind - Total tender announced vs capacity awarded Hybrid - Total tender announced vs capacity awarded
GW GW
Tender Issued Tender Issued
Volume Subscribed Volume Subscribed
Volume Awarded Volume Awarded
7.7
5.8 6.2
4.2 3.9 4.3 4.2
3.5
2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.8
2.1 1.9
1.1 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2
2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022

# of 3 1 4 2 # of 2 3 3 1
auctions auctions
Note: Total tender capacity for hybrid projects has been considered, actual wind capacity for hybrid projects might differ
Source: SECI; MNRE; MEC+ analysis
GWEC.NET 31
The renewed interest by developers due to land allocation issues
in central auctions is primarily due to and delays in commissioning
the evolution in tender conditions, as of grid capacity before CoD.
highlighted below: To improve the grid availability
Specification of procurer scenario, SECI tranches X and XI
before the auction: It is have started specifying land and
noteworthy that ~29% of the grid details of the delivery point
central pipeline is yet to sign a in the tender document before
PSA with state DISCOMs. Also, out auctions. Also, the projects are
of 2.6 GW of total cancellations of in the states of Madhya Pradesh,
central projects, ~0.3 GW central Maharashtra, and Karnataka to
projects have been cancelled due avoid congestion in Gujarat and
to delay in PSA signing by states. Tamil Nadu.
SECI X and XI tenders specify Removal of Tariff caps:
the state DISCOM procurer of Market activity was muted over
power generated, providing a the past two years due to low
level of transparency to boost tariff caps imposed by tender
developer confidence in the conditions. The removal of tariff
timely signing of back-to-back caps during Tranche X and XI
PSAs with DISCOMs. This will auctions resulted in increased
help to ensure the reduction of bidding activity, as well as lower
project cancellations or delays price levels of ~INR 2.7/kWh, as
due to issues around DISCOM compared to ~INR 2.8/kWh in
PSA signing. Tranche VII and VIII. The removal
Diversification of Land of the tariff cap can provide relief
and Grid: A majority of wind to developers in the medium
projects in SECI tranches I to IX term, as price increases from
have been awarded in Gujarat strenuous supply chain scenarios
and Tamil Nadu. This has led to should be considered in future
congestion in the grid at Bhuj wind auctions.
and Tirunelveli substations. Of Reduction in performance
the 2.6 GW total cancellations bank guarantee (PBG): Delays
of central projects, ~1.1 GW of in central projects have impacted
central projects are cancelled the liquidity of wind developers.
Until November 2020, PBGs lead to a positive long-term impact on
were in the range of 8-10% of demand, private-sector participation,
contract value which limited and wind energy installations. This is
liquidity. In 2021, PBGs have visible with increased PSA signing
been reduced to 3% of contract activity after the previous report.
value for all renewable tenders Tranche IX and tranche X signed
issued until March 31, 2023. PSA in Dec 2021 and April 2022
This move will ensure the timely respectively and pre-bid agreement
execution of existing projects with state of MP exists for tranche XI,
and boost developer liquidity leaving the recently awarded tranche
amid an economic slowdown XI as the only auctioned capacity
and disruptions from COVID-19. without a PSA guarantee.
Furthermore, it will lead to
competitiveness in tariff rates Central auction activity – Hybrid
during future central auctions. projects
Repowering of existing Central auctions for hybrid projects
projects: Repowering in central have seen a surge of interest from
wind and hybrid auctions before developers due to multiple waivers
2021 was restricted to the allotted announced by state and central
capacity during the auctions. governments.
Moreover, the sale of excess
generation on repowering of a In 2021, two tenders of 1.8 GW were
plant could only be sold to SECI announced, out of which one WSH
at 75% of the rate prescribed tender of 1.2 GW was awarded
in the PPA. Post-Tranche X and under SECI Hybrid Tranche IV and
XI, capacity restrictions for remaining 0.6GW tender issued
repowering have been removed. by NTPC is yet to be awarded.
Additionally, the obligation to sell Additionally in 2022, one WSH tender
excess generation to SECI has of 1.2 GW was awarded under SECI
been removed and third-party Hybrid Tranche V.
sale of projects allowed.
In 2021, the announcement of
The evolution of tender conditions in waivers to OA charges as part of
these changing market scenarios will WSH policies by some states. along
GWEC.NET 33
with ISTS waivers by MoP, drew Apart from wind and WSH tenders, 2017. But state auction activity in
significant interest from developers RTC power tenders with storage have recent years has reduced due to the
in WSH projects. This resulted in been released by SECI. In 2021, RTC poor financial situation of DISCOMs;
oversubscription of Tranche IV II tender with 2.5 GW capacity was this has shifted the focus of wind
Hybrid auctions by around five issued for thermal energy blended procurement to central auctions for
times the awarded capacity. This is with RE, out of which only 0.25 GW some states.
an increase from around three times was awarded at a tariff of INR 3.01/
oversubscribed capacity during the kWh, due to inability of other winners In 2021, Maharashtra issued a tender
Hybrid III auctions conducted in 2020. to match L1 prices as required by the of 0.5 GW standalone wind, out of
Also, heightened competition has led tender document. The remaining 2.25 which 0.3 GW capacity was awarded
to a ~3% reduction in tariffs to INR GW capacity is to be reauctioned in at INR 3.44/kWh. Additionally, 0.5
2.34/kWh during Hybrid IV auctions 2022 with revised provisions. Earlier GW was awarded by Gujarat in 2022,
in comparison with the Hybrid III SECI had successfully awarded 0.4 at a higher tariff range of INR 2.84-
central auction. GW under RTC-I tender and 1.2 GW 3.27/kWh. No other state except
under assured peak-power supply Maharashtra and Gujarat issued
The participation of PSUs has also tender in 2020. standalone wind tenders during the
begun in auctions conducted by year. This scenario is in contrast with
SECI, with NTPC, NLC and SJVN Enthusiasm towards hybrid and muted activity observed in state
submitting bids for hybrid projects. round-the-clock projects is translated auctions during 2020, as no wind
Other notable activities by PSUs in the also within off-takers, all hybrid tenders were issued by any other
RE sector include: tranches awarded to date has secured state.
1. In March 2022, NTPC floated an PSAs including RTC-I and Assured
Expression of Interest (EOI) for peak-power supply tenders, except
shortlisting suitable land sites recently awarded Hybrid tranche
from Rajasthan, Maharashtra, V and 400 MW capacity in hybrid
Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, tranche-IV.
Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya
State auction activity – Standalone
Pradesh to set up wind projects.
wind projects
2. NTPC, ONGC, SVJN and others
are greening their energy There are 7 key windy states in India,
portfolios through RE targets and out of which 4 states (Gujarat, Madhya
conversion of non-performing Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Tamil
fossil-fuel power generation Nadu) have previously procured
assets into RE assets. power through state auctions since
Figure 9. Standalone Wind & Hybrid- Total state tenders announced vs capacity awarded State auction activity – Hybrid
projects
Standalone Wind - Total tender announced vs capacity awarded Hybrid - Total tender announced vs capacity awarded
GW GW There has been renewed interest
by states in 2021 for WSH auctions,
Tender Issued Tender Issued
compared to the drop observed
Volume Subscribed Volume Subscribed
during 2020 due to the COVID-19
Volume Awarded Volume Awarded
situation. In 2021, Maharashtra issued
and awarded ~0.5 GW of WSH
tenders, which saw oversubscription
by two times in a similar trend to
central auctions. At the date of report
publishing, the ~0.8 GW WSH tender
issued by Madhya Pradesh and 0.5
1.0 0.9 1.4 1.3 GW issued by Gujarat for assured
0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 peak power supply are yet to be
2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022
awarded. Karnataka has prioritized
hybrid projects as part of its newly
# of 1 0 1 1 # of 1 1 1 2
auctions auctions notified RE policy.
This shows that the evolution of tender

Note: Total tender capacity for hybrid projects has been considered, actual wind capacity for hybrid projects might differ conditions and government support
Source: GUVNL, TANGEDCO; MSEDCL, MP-RUMLS, MNRE; MEC+ analysis for hybrid projects led to increased
state auction activity during 2021-22.
GWEC.NET 35
4. Future wind installations
(2022-2026)
A reinvigorated wind market in India i. Central auctions
building on a healthy pipeline and
hybrid auctions India’s wind sector underwent several
positive developments in 2021 which
India is expected to install ~19.4 GW will support installations from central
Favourable
between 2022 and 2026 in the base auctions through 2026. A summary of
Neutral
case scenario, taking the cumulative the main drivers is provided in Table
installed base of wind power in 1 below: Unfavourable
India to 59.5 GW by 2026. These

installations will be driven by central Table 1 | Traffic- light indicator for future central wind auction segment
auctions, C&I, and state auctions.
CHARCTERISTICS COMMENTS
In the base case scenario, central POLICY & REGULATION The framework for tender execution is transparent and robust. Tender design changes in 2021 have ironed out
auctions are likely to contribute 14.9 issues on PSA signing and location specification.
GW across the existing pipeline and INFRASTRUCTURE Grid augmentation continued as per planning in 2021, with delays in the Bhuj II, Jam Khambhaliya and
Tirunelveli extension projects. Due to the high concentration of central projects in substations in Gujarat and
new auctions, while state auctions
Tamil Nadu, delays in commissioning have impacted more than half the projects in the pipeline. GEC phase 2
and private utilities are likely to approved by the Cabinet in 2022 will strengthen intrastate network for future projects.
contribute 3.1 GW. C&I will contribute DEMAND Central government has released wind RPO for procurement of power through projects post March 2022 to
~1.4 GW installations (even though carve out additional demand for wind. PSA signing has increased over past 1 year for central wind and hybrid
development activity is likely to projects indicating positive outlook of states towards wind procurement.
be higher), driven by companies’ PROJECT EXECUTION Land policies have been streamlined in the states of Karnataka, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Madhya
need to shift towards RE to meet Pradesh, but the ground-level impacts are yet to be observed. ISTS charges have been waived until June 2025.
decarbonization goals and replace PIPELINE There was strong activity in 2021 to meet the PSA bottlenecks of central auctions. A ~9.8 GW pipeline of
expensive power supply from awarded central auction projects exists, as on date of report publishing.
DISCOMs.
GWEC.NET 37
Demand and economics respective historical rates, this
Figure 10. New wind demand in central auctions (2022-26)
would create demand for ~14.9
A key demand driver for wind GW25 of new wind procurement
GW Windy states demand Non Windy states demand
installations is the non-solar until 2026.
Renewable Purchase Obligation +22%
In the ambitious case, demand for
(RPO). Central auctions were created 18.1
18.1 GW is projected based on
as a pathway for procurement of +32%
the growth at same pace as of old
wind by non-windy states, however, 14.9 5.9
MoP26 trajectory defined till 2022
slowly certain windy states have
4.7
(refer to figure 10).
joined in. Currently, central auction 11.2
procurement is fuelled by demand The average power purchasing cost
3.8
majorly from 14 non-windy states23 (APPC) across 19 states procuring
and three windy24 states which power from central auctions is
12.2
procure power from central auctions. 10.2 reported to be 30-35%27 higher
7.4 as compared to standalone wind
Out of these 17 states procuring
prices in central auctions. Also, these
power through central auctions,
states have APPC ~50% higher in
Odisha, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Conservative Base Ambitious
comparison with hybrid wind projects
Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan have
Source: MoP RPO targets; MEC+ analysis of central auctions. Around 64-67%
defined their RPO trajectories until
of demand can be met through the
2026; for the rest of the states, it is not
existing issued and awarded pipeline
defined beyond 2022. This indicates The response of states to new RPO take precedence as on date. Three of central auctions.
that remaining states may take trajectories announced by MoP till scenarios of central auction demand
multiple trajectories for RPO definition 2030 will determine the impact on can emerge from the 14 non-windy The high demand for central auction
towards 2026. wind demand for central auctions states and 3 windy states, depending tenders and a favourable business
(See Note Box 4). Going forward, on state adoption post 2022: case in comparison with existing
In July 2022, MOP came up with
there are two possibilities of RPO In the conservative case scenario, APPC, is reflected in a surge of PSA
new trajectory until 2030. States will
adoption by states, to either continue the states may not increase their activity with signing of PSAs for SECI
take time to adopt these trajectories.
with historical run-rate of state budget, creating a demand of VIII, IX, X and Hybrid III & IV, between
23 14 non windy states are UP, Bihar, Punjab, non-solar RPOs or adopt the MoP ~11.2 GW.
Jharkhand, West Bengal, Haryana, Telangana, trajectory for wind-specific RPOs
Kerala, Assam, Goa , Delhi, Odisha, Chhattisgarh In the base case, the RPO target 25 RPO targets set by states & MoP until 2022 and
and Puduchchery towards 2030. beyond
24 The three windy states comprise Tamil Nadu, is expected to vary between 26 No impact of new MOP trajectory of wind RPOs
Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Rajasthan and 6-12.5% in 2025, if states continue is incorporated in the forecast as on the date of
MP is procuring power from central auctions due to However, given the regulatory report publishing, however, possible impact is
poor wind resource and Tamil Nadu due to poor structure, state defined trajectories to increase RPO targets at indicated in note box 10
financial condition 27 State & National APPC tariff orders 2021
December 2021 to date of report Central auctions have a firm pipeline issues. Also, 2.8 GW of pipeline
publishing. of 9.8 GW (8.8 GW wind and 1 projects are yet to sign a PSA with a
GW wind component of hybrid) state DISCOM, which might impact
Pipeline scheduled to be commissioned by future installations.
2025. As on date of publishing of
India issued ~21.7 GW of standalone The pipeline excludes the 2.6 GW of
report, 7 GW projects have signed
wind and wind component of WSH projects which have been cancelled by
PSAs with state DISCOMs. Out
capacities in central auctions between developers due to infrastructure issues
of 7 GW, ~0.6 GW projects with
February 2017 to date of report and delays in the signing of PSAs by
signed PSAs are at risk of delay or
publishing. Out of ~21.7 GW issued states.
cancellation by the developer due to
tenders, 20.3 GW standalone wind land allocation and grid availability
tenders were issued during this
period28, out of which 15 GW was
awarded. Additionally, 6.6 GW of Figure 11. Status of projects awarded in central auction as on date of report publishing (Wind+ Wind component of Hybrid)
hybrid auctions (1.4 GW in wind) was
GW
issued in the same period, of which
21.7
5 GW of hybrid projects (1.1 GW in 1.8
wind) was awarded29. This creates a 3.9 16.1
net awarded capacity of 16.1 GW. The
3.7 12.4
breakdown of the status of awarded
2.6 9.8
wind volumes in central auctions is in 2.8 7.0 0.6 6.4
figure 11.
Out of total 20.3 GW standalone wind

capacity tenders, 1.7 GW capacity is
Cancelled capacity
Underconstruction
Yet to be awarded
Undersubscribed
Doubtful projects
yet to be awarded from wind tenders
PSA Not signed

Tenders issued
Commissioned
issued under SECI tranche XIII and
PSA signed
Remaining
NTPC tenders. Additionally, 0.6 GW
Awarded
capacity
capacity
pipeline
pipeline
hybrid tender (0.1 GW of wind
Firm
component) of NTPC issued in 2021
is yet to be awarded.
Note: Pipeline does not contain RTC - I of 0.4 GW and RTC - II of 0.25 GW
Source: SECI; MNRE; MEC+ analysis
28 Pipeline data is considered as per “GWEC Market

Intelligence Wind Auction Updates Q1 2022”
29 MEC+ estimates based on hybrid tender
requirement for CUF and other factors.
GWEC.NET 39
The supply chain scenario will impact leaving ~ 7.8 GW of projects in Figure 12. Central auction pipeline under 3 scenarios
future wind installations pipeline.
GW Pipeline (Firm + Doubtful)
Existing central pipeline projects In the conservative case scenario,
9.8
are highly sensitive to the evolving projects below INR 2.8/kWh will
supply chain challenges, as turbine be unviable due to a more than
costs impact project viability. This 18%31 increase in wind turbine 7.8
scenario might take overall project rates which will lead to an

cancellations to 2-4 GW for existing additional 4 GW cancellations of
5.8
awarded projects (See Note Box 3). standalone wind tenders, leaving
~5.8 GW pipeline.
The three scenarios for pipeline In the ambitious case, we have
are driven by recent developments assumed no impact on existing
in market conditions. Wind turbine pipeline from a wind turbine
prices have increased in 2022 owing price surge.
to cost pressures and supply chain Conservative Base Ambitious
issues faced by turbine OEMs. The As of on date of report publishing,
wind turbine price surge will increase the overall pipeline in the base case Note: ‘Conservative Case’ – Tariff cap at INR 2.8/kWh; ‘Base Case’ – Tariff cap at INR 2.7/kWh;
‘Ambitious Case’ – No Tariff cap
LCOE of wind projects which may plus issued tenders until 2021 is ~9.6 Source: SECI; MNRE; MEC+ analysis
impact viability of some projects in GW (7.8 GW base case pipeline +
pipelines with lower auction tariffs: 1.8 GW issued tenders) of projects
In the base case scenario, with standalone wind and wind Further, in the forecast period we
projects below INR 2.7/kWh components of hybrid tenders. In can see reinvigoration of interest in
will be unviable due to 10%30 addition to wind & hybrid tenders state market. MNRE has suggested
increase in wind turbine rates. there is 1.85 GW of RTC I & II and moving away from e-reverse bidding
This emerging situation may lead assure peak power tender pipeline in and conducting state-specific closed
to ~2 GW additional cancellations central forecast. envelope auctions.
in standalone wind pipeline,
30 MEC+ insights based on primary interviews with 31 MEC+ insights based on primary interviews with
Turbine OEMs in India. Also validated as per S Turbine OEMs in India. Also validated by news
& P Global quarterly report with ~18-20% hike in articles on Turbine OEM . As per IEA estimates,
turbine costs as pessimistic case in 2021-2022 in 10-25% increase is visible in wind turbine costs
comparison with 2020. As per IEA estimates ,and depending on country and region from 2020.
the IEA Renewables report, 10-25% increase is Wood Mackenzie estimates 10% increase over
visible in wind turbine costs depending on country 12 months due to increases in commodity prices,
and region. logistics costs, and COVID19-related challenges.
Note Box 3: Pipeline is highly sensitive to supply chain cost challenges
As on the date of report publishing, out of the 9.8 GW firm pipeline of wind In case the LCOE increases to INR 2.8/kWh, nearly half of existing
and hybrid central projects, 1 GW is wind component of hybrid tenders, pipeline projects are cancelled or delayed, leaving a pipeline of 4.8
which is immune to WTG price rise due to blending with solar. GW in standalone wind pipeline (which is the current conservative
scenario in the report)
For the remaining 8.8 GW pipeline in standalone wind tenders, LCOE is
However, if the LCOE rises to INR 3/kWh, would impact the viability
expected to increase due to the surge in turbine market prices arising
of the existing 7.8 GW standalone wind central project pipeline with
from cost pressures and supply chain issues in 2022. Estimates suggest
lower awarded tariffs, leaving an active pipeline of 1 GW
LCOE today to be in range of INR 2.7/kWh, which can result in 2 GW
cancellation in 8.8 GW pipeline. Envision has already announced ~1.9 GW wind turbine orders to be
delivered in the first half of 2023 for Indian wind projects, making the
Further sensitivity of wind pipeline can be illustrated from the numbers
second case unrealistic. Nonetheless, the high sensitivity of the standalone
below:
wind pipeline towards LCOE increases and supply chain conditions cannot
be negated and can impact forecasts.
Figure 13. Central standalone wind pipeline Tariff & Pipeline vs LCOE Cut-off
4.8 GW
INR/kWh | GW
1GW
3.5
3.0
2.9 INR 3/kWh
2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
2.7 INR 2.8/kWh
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
SECI - I
SECI IX
SECI XII
SECI VIII
SECI VII
SECI VI
SECI X
SECI V
SECI XI
SECI II
SECI IV
SECI III
0 GW 2 GW 4 GW 6 GW 8 GW 9
Note: **cut-off refers to the project tariff below which project would be deemed economically non-viable
Source: MNRE; SECI; MEC+ analysis
GWEC.NET 41
Grid availability in 2021-2022. Out of 7.5 GW capacity,
6 GW capacity was scheduled to
Nearly 29 substations have been be commissioned by 2021 in Bhuj
allocated to evacuate wind power in I (1.5 GW), Bhuj II (2GW), Jam
India. The auction design of previous Khambhaliya (2GW) and Tuticorin/
tranches has led to concentration of Tirunelveli (0.5 GW); while remaining
wind projects to a few substations in 1.5 GW capacity was scheduled to
Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. This has led be commissioned by 2022 in Bhuj
to cancellations of ~1.4 GW of central I substation extension. However, in
auction projects due to lack of grid 2021 only Bhuj I s/s of 1.5 GW grid
availability. To ensure grid availability, capacity was commissioned. The
substation details outside Gujarat remaining 4.5 GW capacity got
and Tamil Nadu were specified in delayed to 202232 due to Right of Way
tender documents of Tranche X and (RoW), land allocation and permit and
XI before the award of projects. The approval issues.
substations specified under Tranche
X and XI were Rajgarh in Madhya To develop an intrastate network,
Pradesh, Kallam in Maharashtra and the central government has
Koppal and Gadag in Karnataka has announced two phases of Green
led to developers exploring projects Energy Corridors (GEC). The first
in states outside Gujarat and Tamil phase is expected to be completed
Nadu. by 2022. With the approval of the
second phase of GEC, the grid
But current pipeline has led to availability scenario is expected to
congestion of projects in four ease for future installations. Also,
substations: Bhuj I, Bhuj II, Jam states like Karnataka allowing project
Khambhaliya and Tuticorin/ developers to connect to the ISTS
Tirunelveli. Any delay in grid through the STU network will shift
commissioning of these substations project installations outside Gujarat
will impact the commissioning of and Tamil Nadu.
more than 50% of projects in the
pipeline.
As per plan, 7.5 GW project capacity

was scheduled to be commissioned 32 “Report Indicating Status of Construction of Sub
Stations (220 kV & Above)” March 2022; CEA
Land availability Land policies have been revised and
the process is being streamlined in
The policy for land availability in key windy states. However, the results
key states has been stable in 2021. of the execution of new land policies
Presently, the states of Gujarat, are yet to be seen. So, some delays
Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Madhya may be expected in future project
Pradesh have a dedicated land installations.
allocation policy for RE projects
including wind. Andhra Pradesh ii. State auctions
has released an RE export policy in
2020, which has opened the state State auctions comprise tenders from
for siting new wind projects as land DISCOMs in seven windy states33. But
allocation for RE export projects is the scenario has changed since 2017,
prioritised. Karnataka has released as only four states (Gujarat, Madhya
a new RE policy in 2022, which will Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Tamil
ease procurement of agricultural land Nadu) have procured power through
for RE projects and has a provision the state auctions. The table below
for project construction without summarises the key drivers of the
waiting for land conversion. No land market:
policy update is observed in Tamil
Nadu region which might impact few
projects in pipeline.
As per the current scenario, the

land allocation process along with
land use conversion permits usually
takes around 6-9 months. But in a
few states where land policies are
not streamlined the delays in land
allocation were observed up to 18-24
months. This has resulted in several
petitions for timeline extensions from
developers to avoid encashment of
PBG which in turn leads to project 33 The seven windy states comprise Gujarat,
Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Madhya
cost overruns. Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Rajasthan.
GWEC.NET 43
Table 2 | Traffic-light indicator for state wind auction market
Favourable
CHARCTERISTICS TRAFFIC LIGHT INDICATOR Neutral
POLICY & REGULATION A roadmap is needed to define the volume, frequency, and composition of new tenders. Unfavourable
INFRASTRUCTURE Windy states have been major procurers of wind in the last two decades and grid
infrastructure is sufficiently available. GEC phase 2 approved by the Cabinet in 2022 will
strengthen intrastate network for future projects.
DEMAND RPO enforcement required by SERCs and RPO trajectory post-2022 needs to be defined.
PROJECT EXECUTION Land policies have been streamlined in the states of Karnataka, Gujarat, Maharashtra,
Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, but the ground-level impacts are yet to be observed.
PIPELINE Existing pipeline is limited at 2.1 GW of standalone wind projects, of which 0.6 GW
projects are facing project delays
The four states with high wind due to unmet demand. As the RPO Figure 14. New wind demand in state auctions (2022-26)
resource have been traditionally trajectories set until 2022 were
driving wind procurement in India about to expire, states have adopted GW State Utility Demand
through Feed-in Tariffs (FITs) since aggressive non-solar RPO trajectories.

2017. However, state-led wind Two windy states (Gujarat, and +4%
+13%
procurement has declined, following Maharashtra) set RPO trajectories in 3.3
3.1
the introduction of central auctions 2021 through 2025, while Karnataka
which is more attractive for project and Andhra Pradesh have released 2.8
developers. draft RPO trajectories till 2026.
Going forward, uncertainty around In a base case, Gujarat and

wind procurement continues in the Maharashtra will continue to push on
state market, even though states have aggressive RPO targets announced till
pent-up RPO demand. 2025. The response of states to new
RPO trajectories announced by MoP
Demand and Economics till 2030 will determine the impact on
wind demand for states of Karnataka
State DISCOMs in the four windy and Andhra Pradesh which are yet to
states (Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra finalise RPO trajectories till 2026. Conservative Base Ambitious
Pradesh, and Karnataka) will procure
power through their own auctions Source: State RPO targets; MEC+ analysis
Pipeline Figure 15. Status of projects awarded in state auctions * (Wind+ Wind component of Hybrid auctions)
As on the date of report publishing, GW

3.7
states procurement has a firm
0.4
pipeline of 1.4 GW, out of which 0.8
0.8
GW is active pipeline, 0.6 GW of 2.5
projects awarded in Tamil Nadu and
1.0
Maharashtra back in 2017/2018 have 1.4 1.4
0.0
been dormant and are unlikely to 0.6 0.8
fructify, especially projects in Tamil
Nadu which is likely to procure in
Under construction
central tenders (see section 4.1).
Yet to be awarded
Undersubscribed
Capacity Issued
Commissioned
Further, the pipeline can expand by
Remaining
Cancelled
Awarded
0.4 GW of issued tenders in states
Doubtful
capacity
capacity
capacity
projects
pipeline
pipeline
of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh
Firm
(RUMSL34). This included 0.15
GW wind component of 1.25 GW
WSH tender issued by Madhya
Pradesh- RUMSL and 0.25 GW wind Figure 16. Status of private utility projects awarded* (Wind component of Hybrid auctions) Additionally, Private utilities in
component of 0.5 GW assured peak Maharashtra have awarded WSH
power tender issued by Gujarat. GW tenders of ~1 GW (wind component
0.6 GW) in 2020. These ~0.6 GW
The status of awarded wind capacity 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.0 0.0 projects are in the construction phase.
in state auctions is indicated below in
figure 15.
Under construction
Commissioned
Firm pipeline -
Remaining
Cancelled
Awarded
capacity
capacity
capacity
pipeline
34 State tender issued by Rewa Ultra Mega Solar

Limited- RUMSL, JV of MPUVL and SECI can be
considered a PSU tender
GWEC.NET 45
As on date of report publishing, the to ease as intrastate transmission and long payment cycles, which
overall pipeline in the base case networks of key windy states will be might impact developer payments.
including awarded and issued tenders strengthened over the next five years.
for state and private auctions is ~2.4 Payment delays by DISCOMs
GW of projects with standalone wind Payment delays coupled with lower energy
and wind components of hybrids. generation, delays in payment
Heightened payment risks continue receivables, lower tariffs of wind
Grid availability to dampen state markets projects and land allocation issues
have impacted the viability of some
India has announced the development Payment delays adversely impact wind projects. ~20 MW of IREDA-
of an intrastate network in four key the growth of RE in India. Due financed projects from Maharashtra
windy states as part of Green Energy to the COVID-19 pandemic and have filed for NPA in 2020-2021.
Corridors (GEC). It is estimated that supply chain constraints, the overall Similarly, ~50 MW projects financed
~44 GW of new RE power generation dues of DISCOMs have ballooned. by PFC and REC from Maharashtra
evacuation will be possible through The outstanding payments to RE have filed for NPA in the same
the development of two Green Energy generators increased by 73% to duration. These financial institutions
Corridors (GEC) phases. INR 194 billion ($2.62 billion) in are employing additional measures
December 2021, as compared and increasing project and developer
The first phase of GEC with project to INR 112 billion ($1 billion) in monitoring to avoid NPAs in future.
capacity evacuation of ~24 GW is December 202035. Overdue amounts
under construction. The intrastate and increased payment cycles will The poor financial state of DISCOMs
network under GEC phase 1 is due to create a roadblock in achieving the and stringent measures from
be completed in 2022. targets set by the central and state financiers will restrict developers’
governments. ability to participate in state auctions.
The second phase of GEC will help This will shift the RPO demand of state
in the evacuation of ~20 GW of Gujarat is the best-performing state DISCOMs in Tamil Nadu and Madhya
renewable power. MNRE announced with least overdue amount and small Pradesh towards central procurement.
guidelines for the second phase payment cycles. Maharashtra and
of GEC post-Cabinet approval Tamil Nadu have very high overdue
in January 2022. The intrastate amounts and long payment cycles
transmission projects in four key which impact developer participation
windy states as part of GEC phase 2 in state auctions. Madhya Pradesh
will be commissioned by 2026. also has moderate overdue amounts
The grid availability scenario for

35 “Standing Committee on Energy (2021-22):17th
future state projects is expected Lok Sabha”: MNRE
iii. C&I market Table 3. Traffic-light indicator for C&I market
CHARCTERISTICS TRAFFIC LIGHT INDICATOR
Large-scale untapped opportunity
POLICY & REGULATION Inclusion of C&I projects for ISTS waivers until 2025, changes to REC mechanism and
exists in C&I procurement for wind waivers for hybrid projects will promote wind installations.
and hybrid projects
INFRASTRUCTURE Grid infrastructure is sufficiently available. Proposed General Network Access Rules (GNA)
will provide ease of access to ISTS infrastructure.
RE installations within the C&I
segment was kickstarted with DEMAND Announcements of aggressive net-zero targets by major C&I firms until 2030, RPO
compliance for captive users and cost-competitiveness of RE technologies have improved
the growing prominence of wind demand.
technology in India. As of 2021,
PROJECT EXECUTION Project execution requires additional clearances as per land policy and grid connectivity
~9.1 GW of C&I wind installations agreements.
have taken place in India. C&I
PIPELINE Existing pipeline is limited for standalone wind projects but ~1 GW annual hybrid
installations of standalone wind installations are expected post-2024 until 2026.
have reduced in recent years due
to cost competitiveness and less Favourable
maintenance of solar projects. But
Demand for wind within corporate also announced joining the RE100 Neutral
a need for RTC firm power through
procurement coalition of companies committing to Unfavourable
hybrid projects coupled with wind
has led to a resurgence of wind procurement of 100% RE electricity36.
Corporate demand for wind
installations in C&I segment. procurement is driven by the C&I Additionally, Environmental, Social
segment’s shift towards RE, growing and Governance (ESG) factors
The project size of C&I hybrid
commitments to sustainability and the are becoming central to corporate
projects is in the range of 50-100 MW,
associated cost savings as compared policies and access to international
thus fulfilling the RE demand of many
to DISCOM’s power supply. finance in India. ESG factors, when
C&I consumers. The table below
summarises the key drivers of the integrated into investment analysis
Indian companies have been
market: and portfolio construction, offer
preparing to scale up and implement
investors potential long-term
corporate energy decarbonization
performance advantages, creating
strategies. 89 companies have
a preference to fund ESG-compliant
adopted science-based targets
companies and platforms.
and announced their ambitions of
achieving net zero GHG emissions Wind is expected to play a key role
between 2030-2050, 29 of which have as the initial load requirements of C&I
had their net zero targets validated.
Some Indian corporates have 36 Science Based Targets; Companies taking action;
June 2022
GWEC.NET 47
consumers go beyond what can be group captive and INR 1.5/kWh ($27/ to connect dedicated lines for medium sized enterprises. Single
met through solar. As larger volumes MWh) for third-party PPAs in states evacuation of RE to their own window clearance mechanism with
of solar start impacting the grid with incentives. The differential is manufacturing plant. approvals in 15 days will help C&I
profile, integration of wind in the C&I calculated considering additional OA consumers to cater need through
portfolio will be the logical choice to charges levied by states. GNA regulations: green open access in a hassle-free
pick up additional demand, especially manner.
As storage prices are expected General network access (GNA) is
in the form of WSH projects.
to reduce over the next five years, open access to ISTS connectivity. Also, other incentives such as banking
The waivers of OA charges hybrid projects coupled with wind The proposed regulations provide up to 30% generation and exemption
announced for hybrid projects create will increase in cost-competitiveness the framework to facilitate OA power of some open access charges will
a selective case for third-party and provide RTC power solutions for to C&I consumers, developers and enable higher C&I demand for green
PPAs as well. The states of Gujarat, C&I players. DISCOMs for ISTS. energy based open access.
Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh have GNA allows enhancement of current 2. State policy updates:
released hybrid policies with waivers Policy updates impacting wind in the
connectivity to provide access to
to OA charges for such projects. C&I segment
any customers located in India. Also, The Government of Karnataka has
Also, ISTS waivers announced by
1. Central policy updates: generators can provide scheduled recently allowed developers to
the central government until 2025 power to any C&I consumer without connect to the ISTS network via its
will provide impetus to hybrid Eligibility for ISTS waivers: In specifying the consumer location state transmission network.
installations by the C&I segment. November 21, as per an order by beforehand. As part of this regulation,
MNRE, C&I projects of solar, wind connectivity to ISTS for developers The states of Gujarat, Rajasthan and
Economics Andhra Pradesh have dedicated
and hybrid connected to interstate will be eased and C&I consumers
networks were eligible for waiver in can meet RE requirements without hybrid policies. Rajasthan and Andhra
With RE in a firm position as the
ISTS charges for a 25-year period. location constraint. Pradesh have partial waivers on
cheapest source of grid power, C&I
This waiver is applicable for all C&I OA charges and have provisions of
consumers have a strong financial
RE projects connected before June Green Open access rules: banking for WSH projects. Gujarat has
incentive to switch to clean energy.
2025. Earlier, these waivers were removed incentives on OA charges
Currently, electricity prices in India
only applicable to projects of central In June 2022, CERC released green and has no banking provision for
for C&I consumers are high, in the
auctions. open access rules 2022 to ease WSH projects.
range of INR 6-9/kWh ($77-116/ the approval process and regulate
MWh). Hence, tariffs payable to the Other key windy states have included
The announcement of ISTS waivers charges on these transactions and
grid are higher than the landed cost WSH as part of RE policies of states.
will improve economics of RE enable higher green energy based
of wind project for C&I consumer. This improved business case from
projects through connections with open access. Green Open access has
The differential varies by state; central and state government support
the interstate network. After the amended eligibility criteria to 100 kW
however, savings can be as high as will increase C&I wind and WSH
announcement of these waivers, from existing criteria of 1 MW, thus
INR 3.5/kWh ($45/MWh) for captive/ volumes.
major C&I consumers are allowed enabling C&I demand of Small and
Figure 17. Status of State hybrid policies Figure 18. C&I forecast (2022-26) Forecast
Hybrid as part of RE policy GW RE corporate procurement will

Hybrid policy visible +64% continue to strengthen due to
No Hybrid policy removals of regulatory barriers,
2.3
Not assessed business case attractiveness and
sporadic support from states with
charge waivers. The cumulative
+40%
standalone wind market is expected
to be in the range of 0.4-0.7 GW from
1.4 2022 to 2026.
C&I volumes are expected to be

1.0
driven by hybrid projects where wind
will play a key role. The state hybrid
policies of Rajasthan, Gujarat and
Andhra Pradesh are expiring by 2024,
which will prompt a market rush in
the coming years. Also, eligibility
of C&I ISTS waivers until mid-2025
Source: MEC+ analysis Conservative Base Ambitious
will drive a surge in C&I hybrid
Source: MEC+ analysis installations with wind components,
whereby hybrid installations are
expected to be in the range of 1.5-4
GW (0.6-1.6 GW wind component)
from 2022 to 2026.
GWEC.NET 49
5. India wind energy forecast:
2022-2026
India is expected to install more than Figure 19. Y-o-Y new wind installations in India 2022-26
19 GW of wind in the next five years,
GW Installations
with a peak in 2024
Ambitious Base case Conservative 2022-26 Scenario definitions
The interplay of the three markets 5.4 Active pipeline has no impact of surge in
(central, state and C&I procurement) 23.7 GW
turbine costs and is commissioned by 2024;
4.9 Remaining demand of state DISCOMs is
is expected to spur 15-23.7 GW 4.7
fulfilled by new annual auctions of ~9 GW for
of new wind installations between 4.4 4.3
4.6 hybrid till 2024; C&I installations for wind and
4.1
2022 and 2026, while base case hybrid scale with supportive central policies
by 2026
installations are anticipated to be 19.4 4.0 4.0
3.7 Active pipeline impacted with ~10% rise in
GW. In addition to the wide range 3.5 turbine costs making projects of tariffs below
19.4 GW
of volume between scenarios, the 3.2 INR 2.7/kWh unfeasible; remaining demand
2.9 of state DISCOMs is fulfilled by new annual
market is expected to be bumpy 2.3
auctions of ~6 GW for hybrid till 2024; C&I
across the next five years. A surge in Future auctions are expected to be installations regain pre-2019 levels for wind
2.2 dominated by wind solar hybrid projects
installations is seen near 2025 due to and ~1 GW annual hybrid installations
which will replace wind auctions expected from 2024 - 2026
the expiry of ISTS waivers on 30 June
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Active pipeline impacted with more than
2025.
~18% rise in turbine costs making projects of
Peak in installations Installations stabilize 15.0 GW
Majority of active pipeline is tariffs below INR 2.8/kWh unfeasible;
MoP introduced RPO trajectory till in 2024 with expiry with annual hybrid remaining demand of state DISCOMs is
commissioned until 2024; Base
of ISTS waive-offs auctions, where wind fulfilled through new annual auctions of ~ 4
2030 with separate RPO component case and conservative case
in June 2025 ; C& I plays critical role;
projects will be impacted due GW for hybrid; C & I growth is constant fairly
to be met through wind projects to surge in turbine costs
hybrid installations reduction due to phasing driven by annual hybrid installations of ~ 0.5
commissioned post March 2022. will peak out of ISTS waivers GW from 2024 - 2026
The response of states to new RPO
Note: As per calendar years; Wind component of hybrid projects have been considered as a part of forecast; wind component of 0.4 GW RTC I, 0.25
trajectory and treatment of wind
GW RTC II and 1.2 GW peak power tenders have been included in the forecast; Tenders issued by PSUs have not been considered in forecast
Source: State ARRs; RPO documents; PGCIL; NTC and RTC Meeting minutes; credit rating report; CEA; SECI; MEC+ analysis
GWEC.NET 51
RPO will impact the wind outlook which are yet to be awarded. 2.4 GW demand is likely to be state hybrid auctions annually until
scenarios till 2026 (See Note box 04) Cancellations of ~2 GW projects met through issued and projects 2024, increasing from 4 GW of hybrid
in the existing pipeline of 9.8 GW awarded by state DISCOMs as on tenders from 2021-2022. Also, ~1.5-
In the conservative case, 15 GW of central projects are considered date of publishing of report. 4 GW hybrid projects are expected
wind is expected to be installed, as an impact of supply chain to be installed by the C&I segment.
The remaining 0.7 GW demand
with lower installations due to a more challenges, due to turbine cost The ambitious case assumes a higher
is likely to be met through 1 GW
than 18%37 surge in turbine costs surge of 10%38 which leads to a number of hybrid auctions, while the
annual WSH and RTC auctions to
as per the supply chain scenario central project pipeline of 7.8 GW conservative case sees limited hybrid
be conducted by state DISCOMs
and demand evaporation from an (See Figure 12). tenders.
of four windy states until 2024.
economic slowdown. The ambitious
Additionally, ~2 GW demand is
case sees cumulative installation of The remaining 1.4 GW demand for Overall, wind volumes over the next
expected to be met through RTC
23.7 GW from 2022 to 2026, with wind from 2022 to 2026 in the base five years are expected to transition
I auction of 0.4 GW, RTC II auction
no impact of turbine cost surges on case is expected to be driven by C&I from standalone wind projects to
of 0.25 GW and assured peak
the existing project pipeline and segment: growth of WSH projects across the
power auctions of 1.2 GW.
increased uptake of hybrid auctions central, state and C&I markets.
The remaining 3.3 GW demand is Standalone wind installations are
along with wind auctions.
likely to be met through ~4.5 GW expected to contribute ~0.5 GW
In the base case, a forecast of 19.4 annual hybrid auctions until 2024 from 2022 to 2026.
GW installations is driven by central comprising of WSH and RTC The remaining ~0.9 GW wind
procurement of 14.9 GW, state auctions. volume will be met through ~2
utilities’ procurement of 3.1 GW and GW hybrid installations post-
C&I procurement of 1.4 GW. Central 2.8 GW central projects, which are 2023 due to waivers by state and
procurement demand of 14.7 GW yet to sign a PSA, are likely to impact central governments for hybrid
in the base case is likely to be met future project installations through installations.
through the following sources: central procurement.
~9.6 GW demand is likely to Hybrid auctions to drive future wind
State utilities’ procurement of 3.1 GW
be met through ~7.8 GW of installations
in the base case is met through the
awarded central projects and 1.8 following sources: Volumes in 2025 and 2026 arise
GW of wind tenders issued as from the expected new tenders at
of on date of report publishing central and state level, wherein hybrid
38 MEC+ insights based on primary interviews with
37 MEC+ insights based on primary interviews with Turbine OEMs in India. Also validated by news auctions will be a combination of
Turbine OEMs in India. Also validated as per S articles on Turbine OEM . As per IEA estimates,
& P Global quarterly report with ~18-20% hike in 10-25% increase is visible in wind turbine costs
WSH tenders and RTC power tenders.
turbine costs as pessimistic case in 2021-2022 depending on country and region from 2020. The new tenders are expected to
in comparison with 2020. estimates, and IEA Wood Mackenzie estimates 10% increase over
Renewables report 10-25% increase is visible in 12 months due to increases in commodity prices, be driven by 4-9 GW of central and
turbine costs. logistics costs, and coronavirus-related challenges.
Note Box 4: Impact of RPO trajectory released by MoP till 2030 on wind outlook till 2026
Background: In July 2022, MoP released a long-term growth trajectory of March 2019 will be used to fulfil HPO, rest older hydro projects will be
Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) and Energy Storage Obligation till part of “Other RPO”.
2030. Key changes in new RPO trajectory announcement are as follows: Energy storage obligation has been introduced and will be met
A separate Wind RPO trajectory from 0.81% in 2023 to 6.9% in 2030 to through PSP/BESS with at least 85% of total energy stored on annual
be met from wind power projects commissioned after 31 March 2022. basis procured from RE (Solar/ wind) sources.
All older wind projects will be part of “Other RPO” category.
As per new wind RPO requirement announced by MoP, ~57.5 GW of
No separate trajectory for Solar RPO. Solar projects will be part of
India’s power demand will be supplied through new wind projects from
“Other RPO” category.
FY 2023 to FY 2030. ~ 40 GW wind projects have been installed in country
From 2023, all hydro sources of power are considered as part of RPO till FY 2022. This will lead to cumulative wind project installations of ~ 97.5
obligation. Hydro projects which have been commissioned post 08 GW till FY 2030 against a target of ~140 GW set by government. However,
Total RPO trajectory (2018 – 2030) Total RPO % as per old trajectory Total RPO % as per new trajectory Wind RPO %
%
19%
43.3%
41.4%
38.8%
36.0%
33.0%
29.9%
7% 27.1%
24.6%
21.0%
19.0%
17.0% 17.5%
14.3%
6.2% 6.9%
4.3% 5.2%
2.5% 3.4%
0.8% 1.6%
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30
GWEC.NET 53
hybrid project installations will oversize wind component of projects, thus leading to 17.1 GW (excluding C&I demand) demand in base
providing a significant upside to ~97.5 GW wind installations till FY 2030. scenario.
c. Aggressive scenario (based on MoP RPOs): 21.4 GW demand
New wind RPO trajectory will create a demand of ~29.6 GW wind
(excluding C&I demand) till 2026 for 21 major power consuming
projects considering all the states till 2026. 21 major states (14 non-windy
states in aggressive scenario is based on old MoP trajectory. The
and 7 windy states) which drive power demand in India will contribute
demand is reduced to 20.6 GW (excluding C&I demand) till 2026
~20.6 GW demand till 2026 as per new wind RPO, which is less than
for these states considering new wind RPO trajectory in aggressive
~21.4 GW demand (excluding C&I demand) as per existing forecast
scenario.
scenario with old MoP trajectory.
The revised market outlook including C&I demand based on
Impact of new RPO trajectory on forecast scenarios:
implementation of new RPO trajectory by states will have 15 GW forecast
a. Conservative scenario (based on budgeted RPOs): 14 GW demand in conservative scenario, 18.5 GW forecast in base scenario and 22.9 GW
(excluding C&I demand) till 2026 will remain the same due to no in aggressive scenario.
bearing of the new MoP RPO trajectory.
b. Base scenario (based on state RPOs): 18 GW demand (excluding Response of states to implement new RPO trajectory till 2030 and
C&I demand) till 2026 in base scenario will be reduced by the states treatment of Wind RPO over period of next 6 - 12 months will provide
which have not released RPO trajectory till 2026 and have MoP wind clarity on direction of wind market outlook scenario.
requirement lesser than historical RPO trend. ~0.9 GW demand
driven by Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu is reduced
6. Looking towards 2030
Towards 2030, India is expected to Offshore wind: The Ministry for non-exclusive lease utility or PGCIL. The move
continue pushing towards its climate of New and Renewable Energy award on ‘first-come- removes significant cost and
goals for the Paris Agreement and (MNRE) has released Strategy first-serve’ basis, for risk of delay from the scope
Panchamrit announced during the paper in July 2022, announcing consequent procurement of the developer.
COP26 conference. The long-term trajectory to award 37 GW of by government through • Kick-starting the OW
announcement of India achieving offshore wind tenders towards PPAs. Model 2 (no stated tenders: Upcoming tender
carbon neutrality by 2070 will 203039 in the states of Gujarat volume) is for non- for 4 GW under model 3 in
require a significant push from the and Tamil Nadu. The paper talks exclusive lease award September and 1 GW under
government to phase out and replace about: rights on ‘first-come-first- model 1 in December 2022;
existing coal generation capacity with • 3 models of offshore wind serve’ basis, for captive/ consequently, 2 GW PPA
RE over the next four decades and development in India: open-access sales tender is planned under
reduce the current pipeline of new - Model 3 (12 GW of model 2A in 2024
- Model 1 (1 GW tender
coal and fossil fuel capacity. lease award) is exclusive
planned): PPA award - India as a wind export
along with exclusive lease award based on hub: WTG OEMs and
To achieve its ambitious targets,
lease award based lease fee bid for captive/ the wider wind supply
the Government of India is
on quoted tariff/VGF open access sales (no chain continue to invest
looking beyond the expansion of
requirement bid for government backed PPA) in a manufacturing
onshore wind energy to explore
Gujarat Zone B3 for TN zone B, G and E base in India for
complementary pathways in offshore
wind, green energy storage, electric - Model 2 is further • Grid development in cost-competitiveness
vehicles, and the use of green divided into model 2A scope of PGCIL: Across and regional export
hydrogen. and 2B. Model 2A (24 the models, the export grid opportunities. India is
GW tenders planned) is (cables and OW substation) already the second-
The longer-term growth drivers for has been put into the scope largest wind supply chain
39 Offshore Wind Energy in India (pib.gov.in);
India’s wind market include: Strategy paper of the central transmission manufacturing hub in
GWEC.NET 55
the world, with further such as in Gujarat and
expansion supporting Tamil Nadu.
job creation, GDP • Policymakers should
growth, and technical proactively assess the annual
excellence, in line with volume of wind capacity
the government’s “Make nearing end of lifetime and
in India” initiative. enable repowering via
- Repowering older regulatory fast tracks for
wind projects: streamlined permitting and
Repowering offers an site license extensions.
efficient pathway for India • Asset owners should also
to maximize productivity be able to undertake
and socioeconomic repowering of wind assets
benefits from sites before the designated end of
already designated for project lifetime, as there may
wind power production. be wider cost efficiencies
Replacing older and socioeconomic gains
components with newer associated with installing
turbines that have upgraded technology at an
larger power ratings, earlier stage.
greater resilience to
environmental elements The long-term drivers for wind
and material upgrades continue to be strong in India, as the
can lower cost of country shifts towards competitive
installation and O&M technologies and low-carbon growth.
across projects, resulting
in fewer downtime
periods and lower
operational expenditures.
This can in turn help
to make projects more
economical where
procurement schemes
are highly competitive,
GWEC.NET 57
Global Wind Energy Council
Rue de Commerce 31,

1000, Brussels, Belgium
T. +32 490 56 81 39
info@gwec.net
@GWECGlobalWind
@Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)
@Global Wind Energy Council
MEC+
INDIA
510, Suncity Business Tower
122003, Golf Course Road
Gurugram, India
T: +91 124 480 2700
DENMARK
Nordre Fasanvej 113, 2
2000 Frederiksberg
Copenhagen, Denmark
T: +45 3543 3277
www.gwec.net
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Revitalizing Wind Growth To Power The Energy Transition

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Revitalizing Wind Growth To Power The Energy Transition

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REVITALIZING

Copyright © June 2022

This document contains forward-looking statements. These statements are based on

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Sidharth Jain (MEC+); Harshal Arekar (MEC+); Rishabh Ranade (MEC+)

Aspire Design, New Delhi

GWEC and partners

Figure 1. Y-o-Y new wind installations in India 2022-26 18

2 “India- Third Biennial Update Report to The United

Aug’20 – Oct’21 Nov’21 Jan’22 Feb’22 May’22 June’22 July’22

Policy/ Introduction of Cabinet GNA and Green

Impact of policy/market mechanism on wind and hybrid installations

When comparing LCOE of all sources 2022 2026

(see Note Box 1). As of 2022, high

Figure 5. Requirement of round the clock base power

Typical demand curve of DISCOMs

Power – Annual: 75-80%

Need for RTC power RTC power - Market activity

Figure 6. Storage and Battery Pack costs forecast in India (2022-26)

253 -6% -8%

2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022

This shows that the evolution of tender

India to 59.5 GW by 2026. These

Out of total 20.3 GW standalone wind

PSA Not signed

28 Pipeline data is considered as per “GWEC Market

scenario might take overall project rates which will lead to an

As per plan, 7.5 GW project capacity

As per the current scenario, the

through Feed-in Tariffs (FITs) since aggressive non-solar RPO trajectories.

developers. draft RPO trajectories till 2026.

Going forward, uncertainty around In a base case, Gujarat and

As on the date of report publishing, GW

34 State tender issued by Rewa Ultra Mega Solar

The grid availability scenario for

Hybrid as part of RE policy GW RE corporate procurement will

C&I volumes are expected to be

Rue de Commerce 31,

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Figure 1. Y-o-Y new wind installations in India 2022-26 18