Project Title: Does poverty and population growth drive the homicide

rates in the Caribbean?

[Math S.B.A]

NOVEMBER 1, 2022
ELIJAH KEVY DAVID

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction:.................................................................................................................................. 3
Methods of Data Collection:............................................................................................................ 4
Presentation of Data:...................................................................................................................... 5
Analysis of Data:.......................................................................................................................... 12
Discussion of findings:................................................................................................................. 15
Conclusions:................................................................................................................................ 16
References:.................................................................................................................................. 17

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Introduction:
The purpose of this SBA project is to investigate the effects that population size and poverty
levels have on the homicide rates in selected Caribbean countries where data could be found over
a ten-year period. The countries assessed are Jamaica. Dominican Republic, Trinidad and
Tobago, Bahamas, Barbados, and Puerto Rico.
The main goal of the study is to further improve our understanding of the factors contributing to
homicides in the Caribbean. The study has 3 main objectives: First, to determine whether a
strong relationship exist between poverty and homicide levels in the Caribbean, second, to
determine whether population changes affect homicidal rates in the Caribbean, and third, to
determine whether association between poverty, population size and homicide rates are stronger
at the country level compared to the wider region.
In recent years there has been an escalation in crime in the Caribbean. It is unclear what factors
are responsible for driving up crime levels, although some research has shown correlation
between various factors including poverty and illiteracy as drivers of crime. Other studies have
not been conclusive. The research is to collect data from various online sources for the
investigation. Results are expected show the relationship between population growth and
homicide counts. These results are expected to improve understanding of factors contributing to
crime and is to be used to governments in developing strategies to counteract crimes.

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Method of Data Collection:
The study uses population, poverty and homicide data for over a ten-year period to determine
whether relationships exist. A desktop search was conducted to obtain the data sets. Firstly, the
internet was used to check for data on the official government website in each country. This
effort produced limited results. Additionally, the World Bank Website was used to obtain much
of the data. Only countries for which data is consistent over a ten-year period was selected. The
data obtained was tabulated for ease of use and comparison and uploaded into Microsoft Excel
for analysis.

The tables to be utilized are as follows:

Table 1. Raw Homicide Counts per year.

Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Trinidad
Bahamas
Haiti
Puerto Rico
Barbados

Table 2. Raw population for selected countries

Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jamaica
Dominican
Republic
Trinidad
Bahamas
Haiti
Puerto
Rico
Barbados

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Table 3: Raw GDP Per Capita (USD) for selected countries
Countries 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bahamas
Barbados
Trinidad
Dominican
Republic
Haiti
Jamaica
Puerto Rico

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 Presentation of Data
Table 1. Raw Homicide Counts per year.
Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jamaica 1133 1102 1202 1005 1208 1354 1647 1287 1339 1323
Dominican Republic 2600 2268 1979 1381 1256 1207 1261 1068 1026 961
Trinidad 351 381 408 403 420 462 495 512 536 393
Bahamas 126 111 119 123 146 111 122 91 79 73
Haiti 914 1033 1039 880 1071 1028 na 743 na na
Puerto Rico 1179 1015 924 704 551 657 729 641 606 529
Barbados 27 22 24 25 31 22 30 28 48 41
Source: https://www.statista.com/topics/7680/crime-in-the-caribbean/#dossierKeyfigures

Table 2. Raw population for selected countries

Country 2011 2012 201 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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Jamaica 2825929 2842132 2858 2875139 28910 29062 29208 29348 29482 29611
712 21 36 48 47 79 67
Dominican 9813218 9930916 1004 1016518 10281 10397 10513 10627 10738 10847
Republic 8232 3 680 741 104 141 958 910
Trinidad 1336178 1344819 1353 1362345 13703 13775 13840 13898 13949 13994
704 28 60 59 43 73 48
Bahamas 359528 363584 3671 370633 37420 37793 38175 38563 38948 39324
69 6 0 5 7 2 4
Haiti 1010032 10250930 1040 1054900 10695 10389 10982 11123 11263 11402
0 0675 9 542 970 366 178 017 528
Puerto 3589861 3536572 3503 3453672 33815 32831 31636 30395 29334 28608
Rico 858 18 25 67 96 06 53
Barbados 282987 212701 2842 284826 28532 28579 28623 28664 28702 28737
96 4 6 2 1 5 5
Source: Population by Country (2022) - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

Table 3: Raw GDP Per Capita (USD) for selected countries

Countries 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bahamas 28,006 29,486 28,769 30,155 31,699 31,315 32,371 33,077 33,872 24,665
Barbados 16,459 16,250 16,452 16,489 16,559 16,910 17,404 17,783 18,480 16,319
Trinidad 19034 19171 20162 20290 18383 16241 16747 17139 17123 15285
Dominican
Republic 5,913 6,110 6,238 6,609 6,922 7,281 7,609 8,051 8,282 7,268
Haiti 1,288 1,337 1,433 1,387 1,387 1,290 1,369 1,479 1,313 1,272
Jamaica 5,111 5,210 4,990 4,834 4,908 4,844 5,070 5,360 5,369 4,665

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 Puerto Rico 27,279 27,945 28,513 28,981 29,763 30,627 31,109 31,605 32,851 31,430
Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ranking/gdp-per-capita
The raw data was processed using the formulas on page 13 of the report. A summary of this
analysis in given in the following tables

Table 4. Homicide rate per country per hundred thousand population from the year 2011 to 2020.
Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jamaica 40.1 38.8 42.0 35.0 41.8 46.6 56.4 43.9 45.4 44.7
Dominican
26.5 22.8 19.7 13.6 12.2 11.6 12.0 10.0 9.6 8.9
Republic
Trinidad 26.3 28.3 30.1 29.6 30.6 33.5 35.8 36.8 38.4 28.1
Bahamas 35.0 30.5 32.4 33.2 39.0 29.4 32.0 23.6 20.3 18.6
Haiti 9.0 10.1 10.0 8.3 10.0 9.9 0.0 6.7 0.0 0.0
Puerto Rico 32.8 28.7 26.4 20.4 16.3 20.0 23.0 21.1 20.7 18.5
Barbados 9.5 10.3 8.4 8.8 10.9 7.7 10.5 9.8 16.7 14.3

The homicide rate per 100,000 population given in Table 4 above was derived from applying the
formula:

Table 5. Population verses average homicide per year for selected countries.
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Avg. 353875 3560458 360233 363285 366020 362754 370425 372361 374464 3769318
populatio 4 2 3 4 7 6 3 5
n
Avg. 1043 993 964 817 837 857 900 799 808 763
homicide
counts

Table 6. Average GDP per capita and homicide counts.

Homicides
Countries GDP per Capita counts

Jamaica 5036.1 1260

Dominican Republic 7028.3 1501
Trinidad 17957.5 436
Bahamas 30341.5 110
Haiti 1355.5 994
Puerto Rico 30010.3 754

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 Barbados 16910.5 30

Table 7. GDP per capita with average homicide per 100,000 population for the countries
Country Avg GDP per capita Avg homicide per 100,000

Jamaica 5036 1627  

Dominican
Republic 7028 550  
Trinidad 17958 1189  
Bahamas 30342 1101  
Haiti 1356 240  
Puerto Rico 30010 853  
Barbados 16911 400    

Table 8. Average change in annual GDP per capita and average change in homicide rates
Country Avg. % change in annual GDP Avg. % change in homicide
per capita annually

Jamaica -1.18 0.66

Dominican Republic 2.11 -12.36
Trinidad -2.68 0.50
Bahamas -2.09 -7.53
Haiti -0.35 1.54
Puerto Rico 1.54 -10.34
Barbados -0.2 1.35

The average for each data set above was calculated. The mean x̄ of a data set is the sum of all the data
divided by the count n.

Table 9. Percentage in GDP per Capita and percent change in homicide

  % change in GDP per Capita % change in homicide

Jamaica 4.5 17.8  
Dominican Republic 4.3 4.3  
Trinidad 3.0 6.7  
Bahamas 3.3 9.0  
Haiti 5.8 NA  
Puerto Rico 1.5 9.9  
Barbados 2.8 26.7    

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Table 10. GDP per Capita (USD) and homicide counts in selected countries
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP per
Capita 5,913 6,110 6,238 6,609 6,922 7,281 7,609 8,051 8,282 7,268
Homicide
2600 2268 1979 1381 1256 1207 1261 1068 1026 961
count
                     

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Figure 1 gives the average yearly population plotted against average homicide counts for
countries

Figure 2 shows homicide counts plotted with average GDP per capita.

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Figure 3 shows the average GDP per capita verses average homicide per 100, 000
population.

Figure 4 shows the average percent change in GDP per capita and homicide for ten years
for the selected countries.

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Figure 5 shows percent change in homicide and GDP per capita in 2017 for all countries.

Figure 6 shows the relationship between population and homicide per 100,000 population.

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Analysis of Data:
The data was analyzed in Microsoft Excel. The following analysis was completed

a. The mean for each data set was calculated. The mean x̄ of a data set is the sum of all the data
divided by the count n.

b. The percent change in homicide, GDP per capita, population was also calculated using
the formula:
(Value for yr. 2 – Value for yr. 1) x 100
Value for year 2

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Figure 1. Average yearly population plotted against average homicide counts for countries
From the figure, it can be seen that the average yearly population for the countries were steadily
increasing from year to year except for 2016. From 2011 the average yearly population increased
from 3,538,745 to 3,769, 318 in 2020. On the contrary, homicide trends are in general declining.
The highest counts are in 2011 with a total of 1043 and this decreased to 837 homicides in 2015.
However, between 2015 and 2017, there is a slight bump in annual homicides. In 2018, there
was a sharp decrease to 799 homicides over the previous years. The homicide counts from 2019
and 2020 are 808 and 763 respectively.

Figure 2: Homicide counts plotted with average GDP per capita.

From the figure, it is apparent that Puerto Rico – with a GDP of 30,010 USD – Barbados (16,911
USD) Trinidad (17,958 USD) and The Bahamas (30,342 USD) have the highest GDP per capita
and incidentally the lowest homicides among the countries. On the other hand, Haiti – with a
GDP of 1356 USD, Jamaica (5036 USD) and the Dominican Republic (7028 USD) with lower
GDP per capita had the higher homicide rates comparatively. The general trend is that richer
countries, in terms of their GDP per capita, recorded lower homicide counts.

Figure 3. Average GDP per capita verses average homicide per 100, 000 population
It can be observed that the relationship is highly variable when we consider the homicide rate per
100,000 population. Jamaica, Trinidad and The Bahamas with widely different GDP per capita,
showed the highest homicide rate per 100,000 population while Haiti (240) and the Dominican
Republic (550) showed the lowest. Their GDP per capita was also very different.

Figure 4. Average percent change in GDP per capita and average percent change in
homicide for ten years
Average percent change in GDP per Capita and average percent change in homicide fluctuated
for the countries. The greatest percent decrease in homicide was in the Dominican Republic (-
12.36), Puerto Rico (-10.34), and the Bahamas (-7.53). This corresponds to a positive change in
GDP per capita for the Dominican Republic (2.11), and Puerto Rico (1.54), indicating an inverse
relationship for these countries. For the Bahamas, a decrease in GDP (-2.09) per capita
corresponded to a decrease in homicide level (-7.53).

Figure 5. Percent change in homicide and GDP per capita in 2017 for all countries
Figure 5 revealed that the percent change in homicide increased faster than percent change in
GDP per capita for all countries except the Dominican Republic where they increased at the
same rate of 4.3% each. The highest percent change in homicide was for Barbados at 26.7% and
the lowest percentage change was for the Dominican Republic at 4.3%. Homicide data for Haiti
from 2017 to 2020 was not assessed as it was not available. The highest change in GDP per
capita is Haiti with 5.8% while Puerto Rico had the lowest with 1.5%.
Figure 6. GDP per capita verses Homicide count

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In Figure 6, we see that from 2011, population increased steadily as the number of homicides per
100,000 population decreased gradually which indicates that exists an inverse relationship.

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Discussion of findings:
Factors contributing to homicide in any one country can be complex however some trends were
obvious for the countries investigated for a ten-year period. Average homicide committed fell
with increase in population for the countries. As population per 100,000 increased, homicide
decreased. On this basis only, we can anticipate that homicide levels will continue to decrease in
the countries when we consider 100,000 increases; however, this is a very simplistic
interpretation because other factors besides population have been known to influence homicide
levels. Average percent change in GDP per Capita and average percent change in homicide rates
fluctuated for the countries. Likewise, as a country’s GDP per capita increased the homicide
rates generally decreased. Richer countries – countries with higher GDP per capita – generally
recorded lower homicide counts. After assessing the average percent change in GDP per capita
and average percent change in homicide for ten years, an inverse relationship was found to exist
between the pair, which means when average percent change in GDP falls or rises, the opposite
effect is observed in average percent change in homicide. This implies that poverty levels are
among the likely factors driving up crimes in some countries. Thus, a regional strategy to tackle
crime should at least prioritize countries with lower GDP per capita. Finally, for the year 2017,
the percent change in homicide increased faster than the percent change in GDP except for the
Dominican Republic, where percent change was uniform. Again, this can be interpreted to mean
that the faster increase in homicide relative to change in GDP per capita is influenced by other
factors at a country level.

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Conclusions:
This SBA sought to find out how poverty and/or population growth affects the homicide rates in
selected countries. After a thorough investigation it was determined that relationships exist,
however they are variable and are influenced by country-specific factors. Most importantly, an
inverse relationship exists between GDP per Capita and homicide. The general trend is that, as a
country’s GDP per capita increased the homicide rates generally decreased, thus richer countries
– those with higher GDP per capita – generally have lower homicide counts. These results have
applicability in the real world. These trends can be factored into decision making and developing
crime related strategies for the wider regional level. Also, it helps to improve understanding of
present trends in the Caribbean and where priorities should go. The absence of consistent and
long-term data sets prevented me from looking at trends in the smaller islands or over a long
time period. This would have been even more interesting. I am however confident that the SBA
did shed some light on the subject in some countries.

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References:
Aitken, F. J. E. a. N., 2011. Income Inequality, Trust and Homicide in 33 Countries. European
Journal of Public Health, 21(2), p. 241–246.

Global Study on Homicide 2019. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimess, Vienna, UNODC

Macrotrends. [Online]
Available at: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ranking/gdp-per-capita
[Accessed 15 10 2022].

https://www.statista.com/topics/7680/crime-in-the-caribbean/#dossierKeyfigures. Accessed
October 31st, 2022

Population by Country (2022) - Worldometer (worldometers.info). Accessed October 31st, 2022

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