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The Impact of Minority Political Candidates on Minority Voter Rates in Major

American Elections

Introduction

Throughout the history of the United States, there have been many trends regarding the

people who hold public office. One predominant theme is that white males have overwhelmingly

held political power over all other minority groups. One reason for this is that African American

men were not given the ability to run for office until the passage of the fifteenth amendment in

1870; while women were not permitted to run for public office until 1920 when the nineteenth

amendment was ratified. Although these two groups were granted formal power through the

aforementioned amendments, they continued to struggle to reach a critical mass. According to

Schaeffer (2021), 23% of the 117th U.S. Congress identified as non-white, compared to the 79th

Congress where only 1% of lawmakers were non-white. As these structural barriers have been

broken down, the struggle for minority candidates to obtain political power persists.

Additionally, the rates of political participation, specifically voting, vary significantly

across different identities. This research is done with the intention of determining whether or not

the presence of minority Congressional candidates increases the likelihood that minority voters

who share that identity will turn out to vote in national elections in greater numbers. For the

purposes of this study, we will be solely focusing on voter behavior for all major national

elections since 2000 (i.e., all presidential and midterm election years). The two main groups of

minorities that will be the focus of this research are white females and African American

females, with an emphasis on the intersectionality of female African-American candidates and

voters.
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This research seeks to fill holes in the existing literature by expanding upon the pre-

existing literature regarding the political behavior of women, as well as African Americans, yet

largely excluding women of color at this intersection of identities. The research serves as an

examination of whether or not identity appeals are a useful strategy for minority candidates to

employ when attempting to turn out voters. The importance of this study cannot be overstated as

there needs to be more research regarding the best avenues for minority candidates to be

successful on the national stage. Additionally, there must be more done to persuade minority

groups to turn out to vote in larger numbers to ensure that all groups of people are being

adequately represented.

Literature Review

White Female Voter Turnout

As was previously mentioned, women in the United States were granted suffrage in 1919

through the passage of the nineteenth amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Throughout U.S.

history, women have played various important roles in influencing policy, however, this act

solidified and enhanced their political influence. As American political culture has progressed

and adopted a more egalitarian view of who should be involved in the political world, women

have had an increasing impact on electoral outcomes. Recent electoral trends indicate that

women have a higher overall turnout rate than men for presidential elections (Medenica and

Fowler 2020). As women become such a large and active portion of the electorate, they are the

key to success for many candidates. Most campaigns share the common notion that winning an

election lies, at least in some part, in their ability to gain the female vote.

According to Brown (2014), white women, in particular, are most likely to be mobilized

through interest groups, strong party affiliation, direct voter contact from a political party, and
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contact from a church or other religious organization. Although these factors are important to

keep in mind when planning white female voter turnout strategies, other demographic features

such as age and education level must be taken into consideration as significant to whether or not

white women are likely to vote (Brown 2014). This is in no way meant to paint the female voter

as a monolith, instead, this section as well as subsequent ones provide some of the general

factors that impact the voter turnout of each group, respectively.

African American Female Voter Turnout

After centuries of enslavement, the 1863 Emancipation Proclamation freed African

Americans from their condition of servitude. This act led to the passage of the fifteenth

amendment to the U.S. Constitution in 1870 which formally granted African American men the

right to vote. African American women also stood by as the turn of the century brought renewed

calls for women’s suffrage that was exclusive to white women. Finally, the Voting Rights Act of

1965 fully extended the right to vote to all African American women. African American women

have made strides in political participation, despite the fact that they have only been granted the

right to vote for approximately six decades. This is evident based on the fact that Black women

had the highest voter turnout rate among all demographic groups of eligible voters in 2008 and

2012 (Brown and Gershon 2016).

The term intersectionality was coined in the 1980s by Kimberlé Crenshaw to emphasize

the differences between white and black women and how the compounding of marginalized

identities placed on African American women leads to unique experiences (Cho et al. 2013). For

the purposes of this research, an intersectional lens will help to examine the differences in voter

turnout factors for white women and African American women. Some of the ways in which

African American women differ from white women are that they are not likely to be significantly
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mobilized by external factors such as political parties, churches, or interest groups (Brown 2014).

Medenica and Fowler (2020), put forth the theory that the political participation gap between

white women and African American women can be attributed to a perceived lack of influence on

behalf of the latter group.

Minority Candidates in America

One of the fundamental components of the American political system is the use of

majority-minority districts. These districts were designed to increase the number of non-white

elected officials because of the Thornburg v Gingles decisions of 1986 (Fraga 2016), which

would “[e]nhance the descriptive representation of underrepresented groups” (Banducci et al.

2004, 536). Majority-minority districts serve this representative function by allowing for a

minority population to account for a majority of the voting-age population, therefore leading to

an increased likelihood that an African American and/or female candidate could win office

(Banducci et al. 2004).

Another way in which minority candidates have been able to find success in American

politics is through signaling openness in the political system. According to Dolan (2006), the

historical pattern of female exclusion from elective office makes the visibility of women a cue

that politics is becoming increasingly accessible and open to the needs of all.

Minority Candidates’ Impact on Minority Voters

The foremost way that minority candidates impact the rates at which individuals of that

same identity vote is through descriptive representation. Descriptive representation centers

around the visibility of marginalized identities in governing bodies. According to Banducci et al.,

(2004), the presence of minority officials leads to contextual cues to minority citizens that the

benefits of voting outweigh the costs of not voting. In other words, a constituent who sees a
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candidate who looks like them is more likely to believe that it would be beneficial for them to

vote because someone is running who is likely to have shared interests. Descriptive

representation is a key part of the minority empowerment theory which states that as minority

representation increases, so too do the representational links between politicians and their

constituents as well as fostering more positive attitudes toward the government and encouraging

political participation (Banducci et al. 2004).

Another way that female candidates specifically have the ability to lead to increased

female voter turnout is by their tendency to emphasize gender-related issues and issues of

particular interest to women (Medenica and Fowler 2020). In addition to the role of the

candidate, female voters are more likely to use a gender frame when thinking about political

issues. When coupled with the fact that female candidates use gender framing in their

communication, it can be inferred that women are more likely to vote for female candidates as

long as they emphasize gender-related issues in their campaigns (Hernson et al. 2003).

When referring specifically to the impact of candidate race on minority voter turnout, it is

clear that there is a pattern of racial solidarity. According to Medenica and Fowler (2020), the

African American population has historically forged strong bonds of racial solidarity that arose

out of centuries of collective hardship. This notion of racial solidarity extends to the discussion

of minority candidates’ impact on minority voter turnout rates as African Americans feel a sense

of duty to support those with a shared identity, thus leading to the tendency for African

American candidates to increase voter turnout due to their race (Washington 2006).
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Theory and Hypothesis

For the purposes of this study, I expect to find a clear and direct positive causal

relationship between the presence of minority political candidates and the rates of minority voter

turnout in national elections. I believe that as American political culture has progressed to

become more inclusive, historically marginalized demographic groups have become more

motivated to participate in the political process. For this specific theory that I am proposing, it is

conditional only to elections in the United States. While there are countries that mirror the

American structure of elections, this study does not take any other countries or political systems

into account. In this study, the explanatory variables are the percentage of white female

congressional candidates and the percentage of African American female congressional

candidates. The dependent variable then is the voter turnout rates for each respective group. I

propose the following hypotheses which will guide my research:

H1: If the percent visibility of white, female congressional (Senate and House of

Representatives) candidates increases, then white female voter turnout rates will increase.

The justification of H1 centers around the fact that recently, women have had a higher

overall voter turnout rate than men. This hypothesis contends that women, specifically white

women, are turning out to vote in larger numbers as a result of more white female congressional

candidates putting their hats in the race. Additionally, the creation of majority-minority voting

districts as a result of the 1986 Thornburg v Gingles decision made it easier for minority political

candidates to actually attain office, thus empowering minorities to believe that their vote

mattered.
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H2: If the percent visibility of African-American female congressional (Senate and House

of Representatives) candidates increases, then African-American female voter turnout

rates will increase.

The justification of H2 is that the increase in descriptive representation that African-

American female candidates give African-American female voters will foster more positive

political attitudes and encourage political participation. This is done by providing contextual

cues to African-American women that the benefits of voting outweigh the costs of not voting.

Descriptive representation also shows these groups that they too can be more active political

participants.

Research Design

In order to prove the above hypotheses, a quantitative data analysis of voter rates for the

targeted groups as well as House and Senate election return rates will be performed. The

timeframe within which this study will be focused consists of every major national congressional

election since 2000 (i.e. 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020).

Although this is a relatively large parameter, it is necessary in order to yield more reliable results

of causality. In order to obtain the data needed for measurement of the explanatory variables:

percent of white female congressional candidates and percent of African-American female

congressional candidates; I will consult U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives election

return data collected from 1976 to 2020 by the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. This data,

which shows the number of votes each candidate received out of the total votes in each election

cycle, will be used simply to quantify how many candidates from the target groups (white

females and African-American females) were on the ballot. On the other hand, measurement of

the dependent variable of voter turnout rates will be done by drawing upon data from the U.S.
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Census Bureau regarding reported voting rates broken down by race, Hispanic origin, sex, and

age. This data is specifically valuable for this study as it gives the ability to delineate between

female voting rates for people who identify as “white only” and “black only” because we are

focused here on the intersection of identities and how African-American women experience

politics differently from white women.

The Census data that will be drawn upon to measure the dependent variable faces issues

of reliability as this data set does rely on self-reporting which is historically unreliable. These

reliability issues, however, are somewhat combated by the fact that the data is coming from the

U.S. Census Bureau which is the foremost American data agency. Additionally, the election

return data does not contain information about the racial background of the candidates Therefore,

it is the job of the researcher to filter through the candidate names and conduct further research

to narrow down the sample size, thus, reliability may be questioned.

Two tabulations will be made: one for white women and one for African American

women. These will be formulated using the software SPSS to create tables of two columns with

the first column being where X will be recorded and the second column being where Y will be

recorded. Although the years are not necessarily important, they will be recorded next to each

row as a way to keep track of all the data. Once all of these values have been accurately recorded

into each respective table, they will then be converted into points of a scatter plot. On the scatter

plot, the independent variable (X) will be placed on the horizontal x-axis while the dependent

variable (Y) will be on the vertical Y-axis. A scatter plot will be developed for this data because

it allows for the modeling of results where the independent variable and dependent variable are

both quantitative measures at the ratio level.

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The main goal of this research is to determine direct causality between the independent

variable and the dependent variable, therefore a statistical technique is required that can be used

to make causal inferences. For this reason, the Linear Regression Model is the necessary

statistical technique for this study. As previously mentioned, a scatter plot will be constructed to

represent the data, however, scatter plots only show the form and strength of the relationship at a

glance. Regression then builds upon this scatter plot by finding the line of best fit which

minimizes the squared vertical distances between the data points and the line. By using the

ordinary least squares formula for modeling linear relationships, I will be able to determine

whether or not there is a positive causal relationship between the independent variable and the

dependent variable.

Because of the nature of this study as a “pilot study,” there are many alterations to the

proposed research plan that will undoubtedly occur. For starters, as I would start compiling data

it may become apparent that there are easier, more time-conducive ways to do so. The election

return data, for example, could be substituted with a more tailored data set for this study. This

would also eliminate some reliability issues that were previously mentioned. Additionally, if I

were to make this a more extensive research project, I would have greater access to more

resources including more data sets which could widen the scope of this study.

References
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Banducci, Susan A., Todd Donovan, and Jeffrey A. Karp. 2004. “Minority

Representation, Empowerment, and Participation.” The Journal of Politics 66 (2): 534-

56.

Brown, Nadia E. 2014. “Political Participation of Women of Color: An Intersectional

Analysis.” Journal of Women, Politics, & Policy 34 (4): 315-48.

Brown, N. E., and S. A. Gershon. 2016. Distinct Identities: Minority Women in U.S. Politics.

Routledge.

Cho, Sumi, Kimberlé W. Crenshaw, and Leslie McCall. 2013. “Toward a Field of

Intersectionality Studies: Theory, Applications, and Praxis.” Signs: Journal of Women in

Culture and Society 38 (4): 785-810.

Dolan, Kathleen. 2006. “Symbolic Mobilization? The Impact of Candidate Sex in

American Elections.” American Politics Research 34 (6): 687-704.

Fraga, Bernard L. 2015. “Candidates or Districts? Reevaluating the Role of Race in Voter

Turnout.” American Journal of Political Science 60 (1): 97-122.

Hernson, Paul S., J. Celeste Lay, and Atiya Kai Stokes. 2003. “Women Running “as

Women”: Candidate Gender, Campaign Issues, and Voter-Targeting Strategies.” The

Journal of Politics 65 (1): 244-55.

Medenica, V. E., and M. Fowler. 2020. “The Intersectional Effects of Diverse Elections

on Validated Turnout in the 2018 Midterm Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 73

(4): 988-1003.

Schaeffer, Katherine. 2021. “The Changing Face of Congress in 7 Charts.”

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/03/10/the-changing-face-of-congress/

(accessed May 7, 2022).

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Washington, Ebonya. 2006. “How Black Candidates Affect Voter Turnout.” The

Quarterly Journal of Economics 121 (3): 973-98.