Manajemen dan

Rekayasa Risiko
22521
ADHITYA RYAN
RAMADANI
WHY ARE YOU TAKING
THIS COURSE ?
WHAT ARE YOUR
EXPECTATIONS ?
SCOPES
Accident
Modelling
Human
Reliability
Analysis

Frequency
Analysis

Layers of
Protection

Risk Assessment
Consequences
Analysis
Your grades will be…
ASSIGNMENT (20%)
• On each main topic

FINAL REPORT (20%)

MID EXAM (30 %)

• Open book exam

FINAL EXAM (30%)

• Take home exam
There won’t be any 100%
wrong answer in this
course*
*Terms and Conditions applied
FINAL REPORT
A group consists of 4-5 people
Select a topic based on this course
Guidelines to write the report will be
distributed soon
Your report can be: 1) A new idea, 2) A
“duplication” from previously published works
USEFUL SOFTWARE FOR
THIS COURSE

Ms Excel MATLAB Pyrosim

GeNIe TopEvent
FTA
 CHALLENGE

Group(s) that can publish

their work in a nationally
accredited journal (max Auto A
one week after your final
exam date)
Potential topics for the final report and
thesis (but not limited to)
Fire and explosion
Accident modelling for a Human reliability
modelling to estimate
hydrocarbon release analysis to estimate
potential risk of an
accident human error probability
offshore structure

Quantitative risk
Bayesian network Evacuation risk
assessment of offshore
modelling for offshore assessment for offshore
structures subjected to
installations major accidents
corrosion using Bow-tie

Risk analysis of Risk analysis of

Risk analysis of
structural and marine hazardous materials
personal safety
events transport
QUESTIONS?
Basic,
Definition,
and
Concepts
The aftermath
165 Died
61 Survived
226
US$1.4 billion
Insurance claim
Bhopal
Disaster
Wind
turbine
accident
data
Hydrocarbon release accidents
200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Major Minor Significant

https://www.hse.gov.uk/offshore/statistics/index.htm
https://www.hse.gov.uk/offshore/statistics/index.htm
 ANYTHING IN
YOUR MIND NOW
WHY DO WE
NEED SAFETY
ENGINEERING?
 HOWEVER…
80% of the engineers had never taken a safety course
in college

more than 60% had never taken a short course in

safety through work

80% had never attended a safety conference

Some of these accidents
occurred many years ago. Some
of them occurred recently. 70% had never attended a safety lecture
Many of the accidents crossed
international borders and many professors in universities do not have a good
affected millions of people in understanding of hazard identification and risk
reduction, let alone teach it
other countries.

1Bahr, N.J. (2014). System Safety Engineering and Risk Assessment: A

Practical Approach. CRC Press
SO THE BIG
QUESTION IS…
WHAT IS SAFETY
ANALYSIS?
Safety analysis
A generic term for study of the system,
identification of dangerous aspects of the
system, and correction of them
How do we assess
the safety of our Risk Assessment
system?

Remember!
Engineers must use system safety
engineering analyses to truly understand
what causes hazards and how they should be
controlled
RISK Probability Consequence

FREQUENCY CONSEQUENCE
ANALYSIS ANALYSIS
Probabilistic model Fire and explosion
Leak frequency model modeling
Corrosion
Structural analysis
HOW
SAFE IS
SAFE
ENOUGH?

1Bahr, N.J. (2014). System Safety Engineering and Risk Assessment: A

Practical Approach. CRC Press
System safety
process
Bahr, N.J. (2014). System Safety
Engineering and Risk Assessment: A
Practical Approach. CRC Press
ACCIDENT
an unplanned process of events that leads to
undesired injury, loss of life, and damage to the system
or the environment.
 ! REMEMBER
Accidents don’t just happen; they are a result of
a long process, with many steps.

Next: Accident Modeling

 A practical
example of
an accident
investigation