The Manager Model Index

By: Modern Meteorological Solutions

Founders:

Jason Sedeski

Gavin Sande l

David Guerrero

Anthony Nargi
Our Mission:

We, Modern Meteorological Solutions, are a company that uses meteorological

data to recommend informed business decisions. We aim to save retail businesses

money by maximizing efficiency and education. Our product, the Manager Model Index,

takes data inputs from various credible sources and plugs them into our proprietary data

processing software. This software computes a simple number output, and this number

tells a business leader what decision to make in several different areas. Some of these

areas include shipping, labor, utilities, and advertising relative to the business. No

meteorological knowledge is necessary in order to understand the index. We offer

several versions of our product that tailor to the company’s needs. Based on the output

of our index, the company can make a decision that saves money relative to weather

related events. We also offer a non compete clause in our contract that makes our

product exclusive to the signing company, this is pivotal for companies in a competitive

industry.
A New Approach for Weis Markets:

We are offering Weis Markets the exclusive opportunity to purchase the Manager

Model Index for use in their daily operations. Modern Meteorological Solutions would be

proud to partner with such a reputable family company. Weis grocery stores have been

consistently performing well in the market. With nearly 200 stores in the Northeast

region of the United States, they have established a strong reputation for quality

products, exceptional customer service, and competitive pricing. Their commitment to

providing customers with fresh and locally sourced products, including produce, meats,

and bakery items, has earned them a loyal customer base. Their financial performance

has been impressive, with a strong and steady profitability, reflecting the effectiveness

of their business strategy.

However, in today's dynamic and competitive retail environment, relying solely on

past successes may not be enough. As the retail landscape evolves, Weis Markets

needs to explore new ways to stay relevant and succeed. In 2021, Weis Markets

reported a net income of $108 million, over a $10 million decrease compared to the

previous year. The company's operating income also decreased by over $16 million to

$146 million.
 In 2022, Weis Markets was ranked in the bottom half of the 89th annual PG Top

100 with only a 2.72% increase in fiscal year end sales. The average was 11%, as most

sales escalated after the Covid-19 pandemic.

A family business like Weis Markets must find ways to save money and increase

their gross profits in this increasingly competitive industry. Modern Meteorological

Solutions presents a solution for Weis Markets with our Manager Model Index. It
provides valuable insights into current and future weather, so that Weis Markets could

operate as efficiently as possible. If Weis wants to grow their brand as a top grocery

store, then we strongly urge them to consider our innovative technologies. With our

product they can revamp their marketing strategies, introduce new products and

services to attract and retain customers, and save money when possible without

intruding on the quality they are known for. While their past success is commendable,

it's crucial for Weis grocery stores to adapt to the changing market dynamics to ensure

continued growth and success in the future.

Areas for Improvement:

While most grocery stores focus on improving their customer appeal, one way

Weis could gain an advantage on their competitors is by investing in our Manager

Model Index. The grocery business is heavily influenced by weather conditions, and

thus, a weather index could vastly improve the company's profit in the long run.

One of the most significant costs for grocery stores is perishable items, such as

fruits and vegetables. Extreme weather conditions, such as heatwaves, droughts, or

floods, can affect the shipping, availability and quality of this produce. This can lead to

increased prices, complications in shipping processes, and decreased sales for the

grocery stores. The Manager Model Index can provide insight into the likelihood of such

weather conditions and inform management to increase orders for the products

affected, giving Weis Markets a jump on other retailers before a product’s availability

becomes scarce. Additional information is produced by the index to recommend the

appropriate price point for such products under different meteorological circumstances.

With 155 million dollars being spent on shipping in 2021, we value the potential savings

at over $777,000.

In 2021, Weis Markets spent over 387 million dollars on labor costs alone. Based

on our calculations, that leaves room for over $775,000 in potential savings, that’s

almost $4,000 per store annually! The Manager Model Index is able to take into account

current road conditions, as well as forecasts up to 5 days in advance. Our index will use

this data to produce an output and determine whether an increase or decrease of labor

is appropriate for that day, relevant to how weather will affect shopping habits. This is a

great tool that aids management in producing work schedules that maximize company

payroll. Of course, this feature is only possible with the purchase of the store by store

index.

One of the key ways a grocery store can use the Manager Model Index to save

money is by adjusting their inventory management practices. By analyzing historical

weather patterns, the store can predict when certain products will be in higher demand

and adjust their inventory accordingly. If the Manager Model Index predicts a hot

summer, the store may stock up on items such as water, ice cream, and refreshing

beverages, which are likely to see increased sales. Additionally, if our index predicts a

cold snap, it could recommend a decrease in inventory for other products. In this

scenario, the index may suggest a decrease in ice cream inventory which would save

on potential spoilage loss for that product. In the event of an impending winter storm,

our index will strongly recommend the restocking of essential items like bread, meat,

and milk. Without the recommendation by our index, Weis may sell out of these
essential items and run the risk of losing customers and profits. By these methods, we

see potential savings of $86,000 in inventory spoilage, along with the potential for

increased sales. This proactive approach ensures that the store has enough stock to

meet demand while minimizing the need for costly last-minute orders.

Another way a grocery store can use the Manager Model Index to save money is

by tailoring their advertising campaigns to the weather forecast. By doing so, they can

increase the relevance of their advertising while minimizing costs. For example, if the

weather index predicts a cold snap, the store would roll out their paper or digital

advertisements for hot soups, stews, and other warm comfort foods. Conversely, if the

weather index predicts a heatwave, the store may advertise sales on refreshing

beverages and ice cream. Our index could even recommend advertisements based off

of potential winter storms, this is when we tend to see the panic buying of essential

items due to the fear in families of being immobilized. Weis Markets could profit off of

this fear and associate their brand with this source of revenue. Weis Markets already

uses in-store advertisements and displays, but the Manager Model Index provides

insight into when certain displays would be more appropriate or relevant. Such

marketing campaigns with more day to day accuracy could lead to increased sales and

customer loyalty. By tailoring their advertising campaigns to the weather forecast, the

store can ensure that their message resonates with their customers, leading to

increased sales and brand recognition.

Behind shipping and labor, Weis Markets' next biggest expense in 2021 was

utility costs. They spent almost $97 million to cover all utility bills across their 196

locations. By our estimates, Weis has the opportunity to save over $484,000 with the
use of our Manager Model Index. For example, the index can account for a decrease in

in store shopping during a winter storm. Weis can save money by consolidating their

frozen products and switching off several freezers. Furthermore, motion activated

lighting could be utilized to reduce power consumption during idle shopping hours. By

examining meteorological information and customer habits, the index is able to predict

when customer visits will decrease and in turn, reduce utility costs.

Finally, a weather index could help Weis Markets plan its pricing strategy. In

extreme weather conditions, the prices of perishable items can fluctuate significantly. A

weather index could help the store predict such price changes and adjust its pricing

strategy accordingly. For example, if the index predicts a prolonged drought, the store

could expect an increase in the price of fruits and vegetables affected by that drought.

The store could either absorb the cost increase and maintain its current prices, or it

could increase its prices and communicate with customers the reasons behind the price

change. Such pricing strategies could help maintain customer trust and prevent loss of

sales.

The Manager Model Index is a wise investment capable of increasing income

and decreasing expenses. We value this investment's total potential profit increase to

be $3,319,533, with gross profit margin increasing to 26.445%, each store would be

saving nearly $17,000. Therefore, we have assessed the price of the MMI to be one

million dollars annually or $5100 per store. That amount increases to two million dollars

annually with the option of our non-compete clause, or $10,200 per store.
 To gain an advantage in this increasingly competitive industry, Modern

Meteorological Solutions is providing the option for non-compete agreement. This would

lock MMS and Weis Markets into a 12-month contract, under which our company would

have a legally bound agreement to provide our Manager Model Index exclusively to
Weis Markets. This eliminates the fear of MMS seeking out other customers and aiding

Weis Markets’ competitors.

In conclusion, Weis Markets had a successful year in 2021. However, the

Manager Model Index could help the store improve its profit in the long run. Our index

provides insight into the likelihood of extreme weather conditions, which could help the

store plan its labor, utility, inventory, marketing, and pricing strategies. By utilizing a

weather index, Weis Markets could optimize their operations, reduce waste, and

increase sales, leading to long-term financial benefits. The atmospheric science that the

MMI™ is based on will be explained further in the next section.

Backed By Science:

Introduction

The business of most retail industries is heavily linked to current and future

weather events . Meteorology makes a big impact on Weis’ day-to-day operations, with

examples including but not limited to supply chain management, pre-storm panic buys,

and widespread store closures. Use of the Manager Model Index will positively impact

awareness of effects on shipping and demand, and our experience and strides in

forecast knowledge will mean this product is fit for widespread commercial use.

The region that Weis Markets is located in is subject to several different

meteorological factors. The chain includes almost 200 stores, as far North as

Binghamton, New York, and as far south as Fredericksburg, Virginia. Almost all of Weis’

stores can be considered to be in the Mid-Atlantic region.

 Our team has over 10 combined years of college forecasting experience, with

most of our experience being in the Mid-Atlantic region where Weis Markets are

located. In addition to ever-improving computer model guidance, the Manager Model

Index is proven to be a reliable tool in a world where safe travel and consumer demand

matter most.

Our Reach

Meteorologists have a wide scope of both data sources and numerical prediction

models at our disposal. Machines and humans alike are able to make observations from

air, land, and sea, which are all continuously improving.

Twice a day, trained meteorologists around the world launch weather balloons.

Those balloons use devices called radiosondes, which measure variables such as

temperature, humidity, and pressure. Other airborne objects, such as commercial

planes, also have the capability to measure these variables where balloons don’t cover.

Most importantly, satellites, both geostationary and polar-orbiting, give a wide view of

the whole world. The current Eastern American geostationary satellite, GOES-16,

captures visible, infrared, and water vapor imagery over 16 different channels. These

satellites have numerous uses, which include hurricane tracking, lightning mappers, and

cloud movement/temperatures.
First ever view from GOES-16, showcasing the 16 different channels and the three imagery types.

Large observation networks exist on land, as well. COOP and ASOS are two

well-known observing networks that include information suitable for use in the Manager

Model Index. ASOS, also commonly used by aircraft pilots, uses a somewhat complex

string of letters that can be decoded to reveal numerous relevant weather variables;

including visibility, sky cover, temperature, and wind speed/direction.

Typical METAR output. 2=Station ID, 3= Issuance time, (DDHHMMz) 4=Wind, 5=Visibility, 6=

Present Weather, 7= Sky Cover, 8=Temp/Dew Point 9=Pressure, 10/11= Other Info.
 The COOP observer program is popularly referred to as the “nation’s weather

and climate observing network of, by, and for the people.” Created in 1890, the program

relies on almost 10,000 volunteers to take observations in places all around the country,

filling in the gaps where ASOS isn’t utilized.

NEXRAD is another example of a nationwide observation network. However,

instead of utilizing people, NEXRAD employs around 200 radars stationed across the

country to detect precipitation. In short, these radars emit a horizontal beam aimed up to

250 miles away. If any of the radio waves are returned to the station in an echo, then

meteorologists can use that echo to determine the type and intensity of precipitation.

Since the introduction of Dual-Pol radars, which emit the waves in both a vertical and

horizontal orientation, meteorologists have been able to get a much better

understanding of what size, shape, and variety of precipitation is falling.

A full meteorological observation network cannot be complete without

considering what is happening over water. Thankfully, the National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) maintains a worldwide buoy network. These buoys

measure relevant oceanic variables, such as sea surface temperature, wave height, and

pressure. The buoys help meteorologists track hurricane development, tsunamis, and

also ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) with a cohesive network centered over the

Eastern equatorial Pacific.

View of the NOAA’s buoy system. Many buoys are placed near the coastlines and in the Great

Lakes. Note buoys equally spaced near the bottom left. This is to track ENSO (El Niño Southern

Oscillation).

When one puts all these variables together, they provide the base of what is

given to Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWPs). These models vary based on

length and resolution, but each one follows a grid-point model that dictates where and

how well the original observation gets factored into the forecast. Mid-to-long range

models, such as the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and the European Centre for

Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) use a grid-point resolution of 8 and 5.59

miles, respectively, for their forecasts, which are 384 and 240 hours in length. However,

higher-resolution models including the North American Mesoscale Forecasting System

(NAM) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR) sacrifice length for high

resolution. The grid points on each of their models are separated by 1.8 miles, while

neither forecast goes above 60 hours. Either way, there is no wrong model to use, as
each individual model has several distinct purposes that would make it viable to use

over another one. For example, taking local topography into account for a forecast

would fare well with a higher-resolution model, yet a long-term model may do better in

giving preliminary warnings of any incoming weather.

Weather forecasting has its origins in the 1800s. Modern, computer-based

forecasting took over in the 1950s. However, numerical weather prediction is at a level

that we have not seen before. That is because of the constant improvement of the

supercomputer. When a forecast is made, these supercomputers solve various

meteorological equations. Doing so takes time, and a precise solution might get

rounded depending on the strength of the computer. However, floating-point operations

on computers are becoming much quicker. Since 1998, the number of floating-point

operations carried out by the strongest supercomputer in the world has increased by

over 100,000 times. Because there is such an increase in supercomputer efficiency, this

has allowed numerical prediction models to better their resolution and provide a more

reliable forecast.
 Floating-point operations carried out per second by the strongest supercomputer, per year. The
scale is logarithmic.

The graphs shown below also details the improvement numerical weather

prediction models have undertaken. In both the Northern and Southern hemispheres,

there has been a respectable increase in forecast skill since the 1950s. This is primarily

due to the exponential increase in supercomputer efficiency. The forecasts have also

grown at an exponential rate, as well. In 1991, a 72 hour (3-day) 500 mb height forecast

became as skilled as the 36 hour (1.5-day) one just 15 years ago.

 NCEP Operational forecast skill, 1955 to 2013.

Anomaly correlation percentage of 500mb height forecasts. From top to bottom: Accuracy of three
day forecasts, five day forecasts, seven day forecasts, and ten day forecasts.
Weis’ reach, and the meteorology behind it.

Your company, Weis Markets, contains about 200 stores entirely located within

the Mid-Atlantic region. An overwhelming majority of stores, plus the company

headquarters, are located in East-central Pennsylvania. Other stores are located in New

Jersey, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, Delaware, and New York.

The northern “bound” of the company is around Binghamton, NY. The southern

“bound” is located in Spotsylvania, VA, located near Fredericksburg. The easternmost

location of Weis Markets is in Randolph, NJ. Finally, the westernmost “bound” is located

near Frostburg, Maryland. It is important to determine the bounds and region of the

company, as a basis to create and make the Manager Model Index, and optimize it for

exclusive use of your company.

Map of all Weis Markets locations. The starred pin

represents the State College location, which is closest to our headquarters.

 Overall, the region presents a varied, yet decently predictable climate. According

to The Köppen climate classification, much of the region is under two climate

classifications: either a Hot Summer Continental Climate (Dfa) or a Humid Subtropical

Climate (Cfa). This means that the region is subject to warm summers and cool winters.

Also, the Northeast gets an average of ~40 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation,

depending on where in the region you are located. While lake-effect snowfall can be a

problem for shipping and other commercial ventures, all of Weis’ stores are outside of

the main targets where lake effect snow usually occurs. On average, the region that

Weis encompasses receives around 20-40 inches of annual snowfall.

Mean Annual Snowfall, Temperature, and Precipitation totals in the Mid-Atlantic and New England.
 With computer capabilities increasing exponentially, our forecasts at Modern

Meteorological Solution will only continue to get better and better. We use the most

advanced forecast models, in combination with reliable data sources across the globe.

The data is processed and plugged into our index to produce an output unlike any other.

Weis Markets could easily understand this output and make an informed business

decision, based on the meteorological knowledge gained. Our next section will address

exactly how the Manager Model Index works.

The Manager Model Index Details:

The Manager Model Index consists of three variables derived from a variety of

weather models to automatically produce an index score for 5 days in the future twice a

day. The index will detail general weather hazards to the company based on its score.

The scoring system ranges from 1 to 24 based on accumulated snowfall, rainfall, and

accretion of ice. This system will then display a map and color the areas based on their

score and how their score ranks in our 5 categories of store concern. The ranks are no

concern, mild concern, moderate concern, major concern, and extreme concern. The

map will highlight Weis Markets’ locations for the company as a whole, as well as list

each store individually with their personal level of concern.

The index is calculated from a simple formula taken from three impactful weather

variables that affect travel. This is called the Concern Score™ and it is the sum of the

total points each weather variable is assigned for each day's index. The formula is
Concern Score™ = Snowfall Points + Rainfall Points + Ice Points. When each score is

summed, the index predicts the overall level of concern based on what category the

score falls in. Below shows how many points convert to each threshold. If there are

different types of precipitation occurring during a weather event, the day can be more

severe due to the summation of multiple variables giving us a higher Concern Score™.

The index is a dynamic model and will incorporate different weather models

depending on the day in the future it is predicting. For long range days (3 to 5 days out)

the model will heavily rely on medium range weather models, and favor the Global

Forecasting System (American model) and the European Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts model (European model). As the weather events get closer,

mesoscale models such as the North American Model (American mesoscale model)

and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model (Higher resolution American Mesoscale

Model), and the RGEM (Canadian Mesoscale Model), will play a role alongside the

previously mentioned models.

 This blend of modeling will result in a very accurate index forecast that will

outperform deterministic models through consensus. Deterministic models analyze

weather variables such as wind, temperature, humidity, and pressure in powerful

computers to create automated weather forecasts. These models are used by us and

fellow meteorologists to guide our predictions. When using a blend of these models as

well as checking our outputs with our own meteorological knowledge, we create an

index that is more accurate than any individual model could make.

Our quality control as meteorologists is the third factor that makes our index

unique and accurate. Our on hand meteorologists will overlook each index run before

sending it to Weis Markets. This will allow us to check for any model bias to keep Weis

from receiving inaccurate information. The index also has a key to determine the

various actions that should be taken to save money such as adjusting inventory based

on predicted increases in demand and shipping delays that will be caused by high

impact weather events. This key gives recommendations for when to increase shipping

on products that are in high demand prior to a weather event (classics such as bread

and milk for example). It also recommends when to potentially close, reduce store

hours, or reduce labor force. Simultaneously, the index will recommend steps be taken

to reduce utility usage during these stangnet hours. It will also predict when to reduce

fresh produce shipping to cut spoilage due to reduced demand or closure. These

predictions will produce a recommendation of the actions to be taken by decision

makers.
Index Example

This example is our index displaying its Sunday March 12th 0z (7:00 pm March

11th) Forecast for Day 1 and Day 2. As mentioned above, the levels of concern are

written in a key below the map. The levels of concern correspond to the tables above,

which give recommendations for how an individual store manager should operate. They

also indicate to the corporate office the extent and severity of a weather event for major

corporate decisions as well.

 Here we can see our index levels overlaid onto our map with locations included.

This is a good example of two very different days, a volatile day with many stores under

different concern levels and a good weather day, with no concern region wide. Our

index is automated then adjusted by our meteorologists before being published. Once

published it is viewable from a private server that all store managers will have access

to. These maps will also be accessible by Weis Markets’ Corporate offices. Weis may
decide how much control they would like to leave to their store managers during

inclement weather events. However we have also listed each store out with their

concern level, followed by a table of suggestions for Weis that we believe will increase

Weis’ profits and decrease Weis’ expenses before and after a storm.

Here’s an example of the chart that will be available to Weis Markets’ corporate

offices as well as individual stores. This chart is to make it easier for store managers to

find out their stores' specific index level. This is a convenience factor that contributes to

the index being more personable to individual store managers. On the other hand, the

use of a map is geared towards the interest of corporations, as the map gives a region

wide forecast and can be used for large company decisions made above the store

manager level.
Conclusion:

There are two primary goals of the team at Modern Meteorological Solutions, to

save Weis money and to increase their profits. Both of these goals can be achieved

through our expert analysis of severe weather events. The Manager Model Index

provides recommendations for increasing stock to keep from running out of supply

before and after events that cause consumer panic. It also provides recommendations

to managers on whether the store should remain open, remain open with reduced staff,

or to consider total closure. This then translates to the corporate side of the index.

When several stores are under a major event category, corporations can also utilize the

index to save the stores money and increase their profits. This can be done through

regional advertising, in-store marketing, supply chain management (ie altering truck

routes), and region wide promotions or sales.

The Manager Model Index is a flexible tool that will benefit Weis Markets. It gives

store managers easy to read weather information that directs management decisions

fast and efficiently prior to, during, and after a weather event. It can also be used by

Weis’ corporate offices to make regionwide decisions that can increase profits and limit

expenses. Our cutting-edge index will ease decision making during severe weather

events for the Weis Markets corporation and store managers.

Sources:

Northeast Climate Viewer

GOES-18: Overview and Improvements

How to Decode METAR reports

COOP

Weis locations and demographics

Radar- and dual pol

The quiet revolution of numerical prediction models

https://www.weismarkets.com/sites/default/files/weis_markets_inc._2021_annual_report

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