David Guerrero & Anthony Nargi

Burning House Weather Report

A home on 114 W. Fairmount Drive burned down on July 4th costing the owners

thousands of dollars. The owners claimed that the fire started from a lightning strike from the

chimney at 9:30 pm. In the insurance policy, there is a specific clause that prevents coverage for

carelessness such as fireworks. The insurance company has asked for an expert report on the

weather conditions from twelve hours before.

This map shows the Incident location, Penn State Golf Courses, and Walker Building

Multiple data sources were used in order to find the findings. The first source was

METAR data from university park airport that provided the cloud cover for the time period. Radar

data from the NOAA radar mosaic proved beneficial towards the report as it gave vital
information over precipitation. SC ACIS was also used to determine precipitation that occurred.

We also used the Storm Event Data archive in order to see if severe weather occurred during

that time period. The additional precipitation data was also used from the Walker building

COOP data.

The data sources should be considered viable, however, there are possible

shortcomings towards the data. One of the things to consider is the possible lack of calibration

of these instruments. Faulty data may be a result if this does occur. Another potential issue is

the proximity to the nearest METAR and COOP data which is half a mile away. Information

regarding precipitation amounts or the amount of solar radiation will not be precise in respect to

the exact location of the incident. However, we are able to collect data from surrounding areas.

This will give us the adequate amount of information in reporting the likely weather conditions

for the exact location.

Through the data, severe winds were reported in Centre county near Bellefonte. There

was also a thunderstorm that occurred between 12:39 PM and 4:20 PM on July 4th 2018

according to the KUNV AWOS. Following the Thunderstorm dry conditions were reported for the

rest of the day, however there was lightning in the vicinity reported at 10:00 PM and 12:30 AM

July 5th. This information is irrelevant for the event, as radar data shown later in the report will

show that the lightning in the vicinity was very far away.
 KUNV AWOS Weather Observations from 12:53 UTC July 4th 2018 to 1:53 UTC July 5th
2018

Using SC ACIS, we were able to determine that 1.47 inches of rain had fallen during the

thunderstorm earlier in the day, indicating that conditions would have likely been wet despite the

sun coming back out for a few hours at the end of the day. This is important because it shows

how wet conditions would have made it harder for a fire to burn, or for a smoldering fire to last

throughout the day.

 Walker Building weather observations from July 1st 2018 to July 6th 2018

The Storm Events Database from the NWS details how the thunderstorm caused severe

winds nearby, however the timestamp shows that the severe thunderstorm occurred several

hours before the 9:30 PM mark. This is important however because it indicates that lightning

was likely present for a period of time in the afternoon preceding the fire. This means that there

could have been a smoldering fire caused by a strike that led to the eventual burning of the

house.
 Severe Thunderstorm Report from July 4th 2018 at 12:50 PM EST (16:50 UTC)

Through the Weather Stem data, we can see data that correlates with the KUNV METAR

data along with the NOAA Radar mosaic that shows precipitation occurring from noon to 4 PM.

As shown through the sensors, the solar radiation increased by a small margin indicating some

break in cloud cover. Nevertheless, the radiation given will not be enough to dry any wet

surfaces.
WeatherStem Data from the Penn State Golf Courses from 13:00 UTC July 4th to 1 UTC July
5th 2018
 Weather Stem Graph showing the rainfall and solar radiation at Penn State Golf Courses on
July 4th 2018 from 9:30 AM to 9:30 PM

Using the NOAA radar mosaic we can see what the radar would have looked like at the

time of the event. It’s clear that there was no precipitation occurring at the time, and using the

METAR data from Iowa State we can conclude that there would not have been a thunderstorm

in the vicinity at the time of the event. Though thunderstorms were southeast of State College,

they were too far away to warrant any METAR lightning detection at the time of the fire, and the

mosaic shows that the closest cells that could’ve caused lightning were outside of Centre

County. The radar clearly indicates that there could not have been a thunderstorm cell that

would prove to cause lightning in the State College area within 5 hours of the incident. This

leaves the only possibility of smoldering caused by lightning that occurred during the

thunderstorm that left the State College area at 4:20 PM. However, as clearly stated, there was

1.47 inches of precipitation that fell at the Walker building, less than a mile from the incident

location. This signals to us that the conditions would have been too wet for smoldering to occur

for more than 5 hours in order to trigger a house fire.

 Radar Mosaic from 1:30 UTC July 5th (9:30 PM EST July 4th)

Due to the lack of thunderstorms in the area at the time of the incident, coupled with the

wetness of the ground, it is unlikely that lightning caused the fire. Though thunderstorms were

present earlier in the day, over an inch of precipitation followed with low levels of solar radiation

in the afternoon rules out smoldering caused by an earlier lightning strike. Additionally, the lack

of thunderstorms in the State College area at the time of the incident leads us to believe that

lightning could not have caused the fire.