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Impact of Covid-19 On Banking in India: An Empirical Analysis
Impact of Covid-19 On Banking in India: An Empirical Analysis
ANALYSIS
Abstract
The COVID-19 outbreak has challenged Indian Banking sector adversely. The pandemic is
impacting the Banking sector in multiple ways — from business continuity issues and operational
considerations to the overall financial outlook.Indian Banks reported Increase in NPAs, demand of
credit and in turn impacted profitability. Because of the shutdown, there were no source of
Revenue and expenses were increasing. So, People were demanding advances and on the other
hand they were not able to repay the loan. So, liquidity crisis arose. To overcome this situation,
Reserve bank of India and central Government has taken many measures to provide relief. This
Research Paper is an attempt to analyse the relationship between NPAs, Advances and
Profitability due to COVID-19 and also impact of measures taken by RBI and government in
Indian Banking sector. For the purpose, we have analysed four Indian Banks i.e. SBI, Bank of
Baroda, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank for a period of 5 years from 2014-15 to 2019-20. The data was
analysed using statistical tools like correlation coefficient to examine the impact of NPAs and
Advances on profitability. some experts believe that Banking sector mainly in India may take long
time to recover from the impact of this pandemic.
Introduction
In January 2020, coronavirus emerged in India and hit millions of lives with thousands of deaths
across the world. To combat with COVID-19, Indian Government announced complete lockdown
in the country starting on March 24, 2020 and the same was extended to 3rd May, 2020. A similar
action has been taken by many governments around the world. However, this kind of measures
taken by Indian Government to control the spread of covid-19 pandemic impacted the GDP of the
country in disruptive way. One of the most important sectors of Indian economy is banking sector
which is responsible for all the financial activities going on in the country and working as a
supporting hand to all of the industries in term of financing, credit, transactions, collection and
payment and so on. Covid-19 has caused so much repercussions in the performance of the Indian
banking sector in terms of NPAs, Profitability, advances etc.
Indian banks have faced a difficulty during the pandemic period and it has changed the
profitability of the Indian banks. They have faced many challenges and the changes they made,
have impacted on their financial statements. One of the core impacts was because of the increase
LITERATURE REVIEW
Ambrish Kumar Mishra, Archana Patel and Sarika Jain (Feb, 2021) carried out a research study
titled“Impact of Covid-19 Outbreak on Performance of Indian Banking Sector” demonstrates
repercussions of the Covid-19 in the performance of the Indian banking sector by creating and
evaluating the largest comprehensive knowledge base called ontology (Covid19-IBO) in order to
get semantic information, in continuation of the same they address few important research
questions with respect to Indian economy.
Vikas Kumar and Sanjeev Kumar (Jan, 2021) carried out a research study titled “Impact of Covid-
19 on Indian Economy with Special Reference to Banking Sector: An Indian Perspective”
demonstratesoverview of the impact of COVID-19 situation on Indian economy and its banking
sector and also analyses the various policy measures taken by Reserve Bank of India and Indian
Government at centre level and state level to improve the current economic situation of the
country.
Dr. Jitender Singh and Dr. B. S. Bodla (2020) carried out a research study titled “Covid-19
Pandemic and Lockdown Impact on India's Banking Sector: A Systemic Literature Review”
demonstrates the impact of this pandemic on Banks and NBFCs due to lockdown which has
resulted into closure of all commercial organisations, educational institutions, public and private
RESEARCH METHDOLOGY
I. Problem Statement:
How Covid-19 will impact Banking sector of India.
V. Data collection:
The study is planned to be carried out with the help of secondary data.
I. Axis Bank
Year NPAs (CR) Net Profit (CR) Total Advances (CR)
2014-15 1316.71 7357.82 281083.03
2015-16 2522.14 8223.66 338774.00
2016-17 8626.55 3679.28 373069.00
2017-18 16591.71 275.68 439650.00
2018-19 11275.60 4676.61 494798.00
2019-20 9360.41 1627.22 571424.00
A XI S B a n k N PA s a n d Ne t P ro f i t
NPAs (CR) NET PROFIT(CR)
18000.00
16000.00 16591.71
14000.00
12000.00
RS IN CR
11275.60
10000.00 9360.41
8000.00 8223.66 8626.55
7357.82
6000.00
4000.00 4676.61
3679.28
2000.00 2522.14
1316.71 1627.22
0.00 275.68
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
YEAR
TOTAL ADVANCES IN CR
600000.00 571424.00
494798.00
500000.00 439650.00
400000.00 373069.00
338774.00
RS IN CR
281083.03
300000.00
200000.00
100000.00
0.00
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Year
Interpretation:
In the above chart, NPAs for the year 2014-15 is Rs. 1316.71 CR and Net Profit for the year is Rs
7357.82 CR. In the subsequent year, the net profit and NPAs of the bank, both rises i.e., Rs
7357.82 CR and Rs 1316.71 CR respectively. The reason behind the same is the net profit of the
bank is much higher than the NPAs of the bank. Thus, there is nominal or no effect of NPAs is
seen on the bank profit in the year 2014-15 and 2015-16.
In the year 2016-17, the net profit of the bank has decreased to Rs 3679.28 CR and NPAs of the
bank has surpassed the net profit of the bank. The NPAs has increased to Rs 8626.55 CR. Thus, it
is clearly seen that the sudden increase of the NPAs of the bank has majorly impacted the
profitability of the bank in the year 2016-17. The reason of sudden increase in the NPAs in the
year 2016-17 is that there was higher liquidity and very less corporate credit demand. Still the
company managed to increase the loan advances in the year 2016-17 but all the benefits were
eaten up by the increase in the NPAs.
In the year 2017-18, the NPAs of the bank doubled compared to 2016-17. This again majorly
impacted the profitability of the bank for the year. The profit of the bank reduced to Rs 275.68
CR. In the year 2018-19, the NPAs got reduced and net profit increased. Thus, it is clearly seen
that there is an inversely proportional relationship between NPAs and net profit of the bank.
Pandemic effect:
In the year 2019-20, Net profit and NPAs, both are decreasing.
1. NPAs are decreasing
2. Loan disbursement is also increasing
Above both the parameters show that the net profit should increase. But actually, it is not. The
reason behind the same are:
1. NPAs are higher than the Net profit
2. There is a huge impact on the Indian economy.
120000.00 110854.70
100000.00
80000.00 65894.74
54065.61 51871.30
RS IN CR
60000.00 42365.78
40000.00 27590.58
13101.90 9950.65 10484.10 14488.11
20000.00
862.23
-6547.45
0.00
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
-20000.00
YEARS
TOTAL ADVANCES IN CR
2500000.00 2325289.56
2185876.92
1934880.19
2000000.00
1571078.38
1463700.42
1500000.00 1300026.39
RS IN CR
1000000.00
500000.00
0.00
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
YEAR
80000.00
69381.43
60000.00
48232.76
RS IN CR
40000.00
19406.46 23482.65
20000.00 8069.49
18080.18
3398.44 -5395.54
0.00 1383.14 -2431.81 433.52 546.19
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
-20000.00
AXIS TITLE
TOTAL ADVANCES IN CR
800000.00
690120.73
700000.00
600000.00
468818.74
RS IN CR
Interpretation:
In the above chart, NPAs for the year 2014-15 is Rs. 8069.49CR and Net Profit for the year is Rs.
3398.44 CR. In the subsequent year, NPAs has increased drastically with Rs. 19406.46 and on the
other hand because of the rise in NPAs, Net Profit has decreased and made loss of Rs. 5395.54
CR.
In the year 2016-17, BOB revived its profit of Rs. 1383.14 CR by succeed in decreasing its NPAs
which was 18080.18 CR. Though there is not much difference in NPAs and advances compared to
previous year, then also they made Profit. Sources of the Profit can be corporate financial services,
international operations, retail financial services, business financial services, global treasury and
rural financial services.
Again, in the year 2017-18, BOB failed to achieve profitability and made loss of Rs. 2431.81 CR
because of the drastic increase in NPAs of 23482.65 CR. So inverse relationship between NPAs
and Profitability can be seen in the year 2017-18.
30000.00 26257.32
25000.00 21078.17
17486.73
RS IN CR
20000.00 14549.64
12296.21
15000.00 10215.92
10000.00 3542.36
1843.99 2601.02 3214.52
5000.00 896.28 1320.37
0.00
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
YEAR
TOTAL ADVANCES IN CR
1200000.00
993702.88
1000000.00
819401.22
800000.00
658333.09
RS IN CR
554568.20
600000.00 464593.96
365495.03
400000.00
200000.00
0.00
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
YEAR
Interpretation:
HDFC Bank’s NPAs, Net profit as well as loan advances are increasing from 2014-15 to 2019-20.
It is clearly seen that there is no any effect of increased NPAs on net profit. The reason behind the
same is the loan advances and net profit. Net profit is much higher than the NPAs of the
companies. Thus, NPAs have not affected the profitability of the business. Their loan advances
have risen from Rs 265495.03 CR to Rs 993702.88 CR in five years, which is approximately triple
of the loan advances in 2014-15. The more the loan advances, the more the net profit will be.
Thus, NPAs is not becoming a barrier to reduce the profitability of the bank.
Pandemic effect:
Total advances in the year 2019-20 has increased to Rs 993702.88 CR, which is because of the
moratorium given by the banks to the defaulters. Thus, their advances have increased and NPAs
have not increased more than it would have been, due to the moratorium given. Also, their NPAs
are very nominal compared to the net profits over 5 periods of time. Thus, there was a negligible
impact on the net profit of the bank, though the whole Indian economy was down.
CorrelationAnalysis:
Correlation of Axis Bank SBI BOB HDFC Bank
Net profit & NPAs -0.90 -0.90 0.04 0.97
Net profit&Total advances -0.70 -0.30 0.23 1.00
Note:
If the correlation is less than 1 then there is reciprocal relation between the two variables.
If the correlation is near 0, then there is no relation between the two variables.
If the correlation lies between 0.1 to 0.5, then there is moderate impact of one variable on the
other.
If the correlation is more than 0.5, then there is high impact of one variable on the other.
FINDINGS
Axis Bank has exhibited increase in advances and decrease in Profitability in the year 2019-20
compared to previous years due to the COVID-19 Pandemic.
On the other hand, SBI has reported sudden increase in Profit and decrease in NPAs in the year
2019-20. Reasons can be strong well established digital platform (SBI YONO) of SBI, Interest
income from increased advances, corporate credit demand and MSME lending.
Bank of Baroda has reported increase in both NPAs and Profit in pandemic year. Reason behind
profitability can be the rise in revenue from interest income due to the increase in advances.
HDFC Bank has reported increase in Advances in 2019-20 due to the moratorium given by the
banks to defaulters and NPAs and Profit have not been increased more than it would have been.
Correlation between Net Profit and NPAs:
Reforms and measures taken by RBI during pandemic has created enough liquidity in the
economy, availability of credit at lower rates, relief in Reporting requirements for banks due to
reduction in daily CRR maintenance requirements, encouraged surplus fund into productive
sectors of the economy in the form of investments and loans instead of RBI.
CONCLUSION
COVID-19 outbreak has hampered the Indian Banking operations and overall Banking sector. Not
only banking sector but it has severely affected every industry across the globe. As industries are
attempting to recover, there is need of some solid measures and strategic initiatives. RBI must take
all possible initiatives to maintain sufficient liquidity in the financial system and its constituents in
the face of COVID-19. Government is required to take decisions and actions to lessen uncertainty
andfinancial stress in the economy. Continuous measures should be taken to enable the smooth
functioning of both money and capital markets. COVID-19 breakdown has caused severe damage
in Banking sector. Actual NPAs will remain suppressed till the extended moratorium period gets
over. According to S&P Global rating, Indian Banking sector will be slower to recover and it will
happen only beyond 2023. The path to recovery will be more painful for emerging market such as
India. There is an expectation of an economic rebound in 2021 because of the release of vaccines.
After an economic rebound also, it may take a full 18 months or more to recover. There is much
uncertainty on the recovery path. For now, we can only focus on systematic measures to revive the
profitability and maintain liquidity in the market.
Bibliography
Mishra Ambrish Kumar, Archana Patel and Sarika Jain (Feb, 2021), “Impact of Covid-19
Outbreak on Performance of Indian Banking Sector by “Impact of Covid-19 on Indian Economy
with Special Reference to Banking Sector: An Indian Perspective”
Singh Jitender , Bodla B. S. (2020) “Covid-19 Pandemic and Lockdown Impact on India's
Banking Sector: A Systemic Literature Review”
Joseph Ashly Lynn Joseph and Dr. M. Prakash (Jul, 2014) “A Study on Analysing the Trend of
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