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PERSONAL COVID 19 RISK BENEFIT ASSESSMENT 5 Sept2021
PERSONAL COVID 19 RISK BENEFIT ASSESSMENT 5 Sept2021
BENEFIT ASSESSMENT
Risk from Covid-19 vs vaccines
5 September 2021
An Australian perspective
Contents
SUMMARY: ........................................................................................................... 2
INTRODUCTION: .................................................................................................... 3
A NOTE ON THE REPORTING OF COVID-19 DEATHS: ....................................................................................................................3
A NOTE ON RISK FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH COVID-19:.............................................................................................................3
1
Summary:
Government and mainstream media are emphasising a ‘serious’ risk of illness/death from Covid-19, while
minimising the potential risks of experimental Covid-19 vaccines that are being promoted to protect against
spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and risk of severe illness and/or death from Covid-19 caused by the virus.
This document represents a risk-benefit assessment of the risk of illness/death from Covid-19 versus risk of
illness/death from vaccination, relying on official Government and medical sources.
In Australia, overall mortality associated with the Alpha variant was 2.9% of confirmed Covid-19 cases since the
start of the pandemic in 2020 to July 2021, prior to the appearance of the Delta variant.
The Delta variant is now responsible nearly all new cases of Covid-19 and associated with a 0.4% mortality rate.
Risk of death from Covid-19 is strongly correlated with age and co-morbidities such as obesity (which indicates
the presence of other chronic inflammatory conditions such as diabetes and hypertensive disorders).
The majority of Covid-19 cases are occurring in the under 50s, yet the majority of reported deaths are occurring
in the over-70s (91.4% of all deaths).
Up to 5 September 2021, in Australia 1,031 deaths have been reported in people ‘from’ and/or ‘with’ Covid-19.
Of these:
• 15 have occurred in the under 50s (1.5% of deaths, or 0.02% of total confirmed cases)
• 89 have occurred in the under 70s (8.6% of deaths, or 0.14% of total confirmed cases)
• 942 have occurred in the over 70s (91.4% of deaths, or 1.5% of total confirmed cases).
The overall median age of death is 86 – above the usual average age expectancy for males and females.
Of these 1,031 reported deaths, 910 had already occurred during the previous Alpha variant waves (820 in
Victorian nursing homes in winter 2020) prior to the appearance of the Delta variant wave from July 2021. Since
Delta, total confirmed Covid-19 cases have doubled (since the start of the pandemic), with 121 deaths.
This trend mirrors UK figures, which show that mortality from the second Alpha wave that occurred in early
2021 was around 80% lower than that during the first wave that occurred in mid 2020 prior to vaccines, a trend
that has continued. This is consistent with how pandemics evolve and naturally decrease in virulence over time.
Recent UK figures do not show a clear overall difference between case numbers and mortality between
vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. In Covid-19 cases attending emergency care between 1 Feb & 29 Aug 2021:
• Unvaccinated people accounted for 29.8% of total deaths from Delta, whereas double-vaccinated people
accounted for 60.7% of total deaths.
• In the over-50s, unvaccinated people accounted for 9.5% of total deaths, whereas double-vaccinated
people accounted for 72.3% of deaths.
These data suggest that the overall risk of mortality from Covid-19 is low and has dropped markedly since the
appearance of the Delta variant.
Covid-19 vaccines are novel, experimental drug technologies that lack short-, medium-, or long-term safety
profiles. They have been given Provisional approval, with experimental trial periods that expire in 2023. Despite
government and media messaging, they cannot – and were not designed to – prevent transmission of the virus.
In Australia, there have been 495 reports of death and 55,016 adverse events following immunisation reported
to the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) to 29 August 2021. Overall, people who receive the vaccine have
a two- to six-fold increased risk of a severe adverse event compared to those who do not receive the vaccine.
The risk-benefit ratio of Covid-19 vaccination rapidly inverts with decreasing age, particularly in the under 70
age brackets (subject to co-morbidity factors), who are at negligible risk of dying from Covid (0.14% mortality).
Government and mainstream media characteristically avoid/suppress any independent public or independent
scientific debate concerning this risk-benefit scenario or alternative Covid prevention and treatment strategies.
2
Introduction:
Many people are currently confused, afraid and unsure what information to trust about the Covid pandemic and
what personal protective measures they should take.
Following is an analysis to help assess personal risk from Covid-19 resulting from infection with the SARS-CoV-2
virus versus vaccination risk (and does not represent health advice). This has been approached in two stages:
For rigour, this process has relied exclusively on official government data and medical sources.
On 29 August 2021, NSW Health (Dr Jeremy McAnulty) clarified that that CFR data reported includes deaths that
are the consequence of other health conditions, stating:
• ‘Some cases have recovered from Covid and then died of something else’ (e.g. a pre-existing chronic
health condition)
• ‘It is often difficult for doctors to determine the extent to which Covid contributed to a person’s death’
• ‘When elderly people die, they often have a range of comorbidities and age increases risk of death’.
For example, in NSW a 15-year-old boy who died of acute meningitis, a 27-year-old who died of acute heart
failure and a 90-year-old who died of a terminal illness while in palliative care are listed as Covid-19 fatalities, as
they also contracted Covid-19 (although they did not die from it).
In Australia, the median age of death from Covid-19 is 86, mostly in people with pre-existing co-morbidities.
Other risk factors include (but not limited to) age (strong correlation), general health status, socio-economic
and/or nutritional status (eg. Vitamin D/ zinc deficiency).
Pandemics are as old as human history and to date, every pandemic in human history has involved initial waves
that are the most virulent, followed by more transmissible but less virulent waves as natural immunity builds
and the pathogen becomes endemic. As this happens, overall mortality drops.
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At the very start of the Covid-19 pandemic, mortality rate was as high as 10% for closed cases and then settled
to a mortality rate of around 2.5% by the time it spread from China and was designated as a pandemic (the
Alpha variant wave that appeared in early 2020). Since the Delta variant appeared, overall mortality in
comparable countries is dropping further to (currently) between 0.2-0.4%.
Although the majority of people infected with Covid are in the under-50 age bracket, deaths from/with Covid are
predominantly occurring in the over-80s.
• According to Department of Health figures, the median age of death ‘from/with’ Covid-19 is 86.
Comparing total confirmed cases (61,609) by total deaths (1,031), the 5 September 2021 daily update shows an
overall mortality since the start of the pandemic of 1.7%.
The Delta strain first appeared in Australia in May 2021, but did not begin to surge until July 2021.
What was the status of total confirmed cases of Covid-19 to total deaths prior to the appearance of the
Delta variant wave in July 2021 (i.e., during the Alpha variant waves)?
The Department of Health daily Covid-19 update as of 1 July 2021 answers this question, which provides Covid-
19 infections and mortality data prior to the appearance of the Delta variant:
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This shows that by 1 July 2021, 910 deaths had already occurred ‘from/with’ the Alpha variant out of 30,643
confirmed cases, equating to an overall mortality of 2.9%.
• Of these 910 deaths, 820 had occurred in Victorian nursing homes during the Jul-Aug 2020 Alpha wave.
These snapshots show that since the onset of the current Delta wave, there have been an additional 30,966
confirmed cases and 129 deaths – representing a mortality rate of 0.4%. Thus:
As at 1 July 2021, the full vaccination rate in Australia was 5.9% (24.2% at least one dose); 15.2% as at 1 August
(33.2% at least one dose); and 28.8% as at 1 September 2021 (48.8% at least one dose).
These Australian Government figures show that the majority of deaths from/with Covid-19 have been
consistently reported in people aged 70 years and over, median age of 86. This not changed since the start of the
pandemic, noting that the usual average life expectancy for men is 81 years and for women 85 years.
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Deaths by age group & sex:
The following table shows the number of Covid-19 associated deaths in Australia for males and females by age
group since the first case was reported at the start of the pandemic in 2020 to 5 Sep 2021 (Alpha and Delta
variants combined):
0-9 0 0 0 0% 0%
10-19 1* 0 1 0.09% 0.001%
20-29 2* 0 2 0.19% 0.003%
30-39 4 2 6 0.58% 0.01%
40-49 3 3 6 0.58% 0.01%
50-59 12 9 21 2% 0.03%
60-69 36 17 53 5.1% 0.09%
70-79 120 67 187 18.1% 0.30%
80-89 209 213 422 40.9% 0.68%
90+ 125 208 333 32.3% 0.54%
Total: 1,031 100% 1.67%
Source: NINDSS data 5/9/2021
[Note: the 1 death listed in the 10-19 bracket is a boy who contracted Covid but died of viral meningitis; another male in the
20-29 bracket died of acute heart failure as the probable cause of death. The figures also include other people who died ‘with’
Covid particularly elderly people in nursing homes/ palliative care].
While the majority of diagnosed Covid-19 cases are occurring in the under 40 age group, the risk of death in this
age group is negligible (0.9% of total mortality, or 0.01% of total confirmed cases) – noting that these figures
include cases known to be associated with death from other conditions (meaning even this low figure is inflated).
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Viewed as a whole, these statistics do not accord with messaging by media and Government regarding
the ‘high risk’ of Covid-19. This particularly applies to people under 70, with mortality dropping
markedly as age decreases.
Such evidence-based, risk-benefit analyses are characteristically missing from media and Government
communications to the public.
Data gathered in the UK shows a strong downward trend in the Covid-19 CFR since January 2021, and as of 5
September 2021 was 0.23% (overall). This represents an overall 90% drop in mortality compared with the
beginning of the pandemic (noting that this general figure does not account for factors such as age and co-
morbidities). The overall drop in CFR is because far more people are now getting Covid, but far fewer are dying.
As in Australia, UK data shows that deaths from/with Covid-19 follows a marked age-related trend. Deaths
have predominantly occurred in those over 75 with co-morbidities, with median age of death 83 (81 in males
and 85 in females).
The most common pre-existing co-morbid condition recorded on the death certificate is diabetes (23%),
followed by hypertensive diseases (17%) and chronic lower respiratory tract diseases (15%).
The Delta variant wave in the UK (from July 2021) has seen deaths continue to remain at the lower rate and
also continue to decouple from the sharp increase in cases (a trend that has continued to the present):
Note – as at:
• 1 Feb 2021 full
vaccination rate was
0.7% (14.5% at least
one dose)
• 1 March 2021 – 1.3%
(30.7% at least one
dose)
• 1 Apr 2021 – 7.4%
(47% at least one dose)
• 1 May 2021 – 23%
(51.8% at least one
dose)
• 1 June 2021 – 39%
(59.4% at least one
dose)
• 1 July 2021 – 50%
(67.5% at least one
dose)
• 1 Aug 2021 – 57.7%
(70.3% at least one
dose).
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Although these graphs cut off at 14 July 2021, the ‘flatlined’ death rate has sustained as Delta has surged. Covid-
19 cases currently occupy only 1-2% of NHS hospital beds (down from up to 80% occupancy during the second
alpha wave in early 2021), despite initial fears that the hospital system would be overwhelmed:
The marked and sustained decrease in mortality rate is being attributed to vaccination, which began with
prioritising the elderly (that represent the considerable majority of deaths). However, mortality rate had
already dropped markedly during the second Alpha wave compared with the first wave, before vaccines
were available (see graph on previous page).
Mortality rate had already dropped to between 0.2-0.3% prior to commencement of the vaccination program
and has remained at this lower level to the present. In mid-July 2021, mortality was 0.186%.
This data also indicates that the vaccination campaign has not stopped widespread transmission of the Delta
variant in the UK, which is also being observed in other highly vaccinated countries such as Israel. This is not
unexpected, since the Covid-19 vaccines are not designed to be able to stop transmission (see Part 2).
Cases & deaths by age category and vaccination status in the UK (Delta variant):
The following data from Public Health England (‘SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation
in England Technical briefing 22, 3 September 2021’) shows the number of Delta cases in the UK and deaths by
age category (<50 and ≥50) and vaccination status (of cases attending to emergency care).
Attendance to emergency care and deaths of sequenced and genotyped Delta cases in England by vaccination status (1
February 2021 to 29 August 2021):
Variant Age group Total Unlinked <21 days ≥21 days ≥14 days Un-
(years) post 1st post 1st post 2nd vaccinated
dose dose dose
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These data show that of people with Delta that attended emergency care between 1 Feb & 29 Aug 2021:
• The significant majority of Covid-19 cases occur in people <50 (85.4%) and that under-50s experience
the lowest death rate from/with Delta (8.6% of total deaths).
• People ≥50 have the lowest infection rate from Delta (14.4%) but account for the significant majority of
deaths from/with Delta (91.4% of total deaths).
• Unvaccinated people comprise under half of all Delta cases (44.6%), compared with 23.1% of people
who have been double-vaccinated (excluding those who have received just one dose)
• Unvaccinated people account for 29.8% of deaths from Delta, whereas double-vaccinated people
account for 60.7% of total deaths.
• According to these figures, vaccination status does not appear to be strongly correlated with either
reduction in transmission or mortality from the Delta variant (although evidence suggests it may reduce
severity of symptoms in elderly people with co-morbidities, with the effect waning after a few months).
1. In promoting the benefits of vaccination to protect against Covid-19, media and Government
communications routinely exclude discussion of (or downplay) the risks of vaccination. This includes that
the vaccines in question are experimental drugs using novel technology, only Provisionally approved, and
still in trial periods until 2023. There is an absence of short-, medium- or long-term safety data.
2. The novel vaccines were not designed to and do not prevent transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Any
claims otherwise have no scientific basis, yet preventing spread is core reasoning for mandating workers to
be vaccinated. Countries that have achieved high vaccination rates (such as Israel and the UK) are
experiencing unchecked spread of the Delta variant, irrespective of vaccination status, since the vaccines are
unable to (and do not) stop or mitigate transmission.
• This is reflected in official data showing that viral loads are similar between individuals that are
vaccinated and unvaccinated. For example, the 6 Aug 2021 UK Technical briefing 20 reports:
“PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from routinely undertaken tests in England show that Ct values (and by
inference viral load) are similar between individuals who are unvaccinated and vaccinated.”
3. Vaccine efficacy has been solely determined on the number of people having to be hospitalised, having to go
on a respirator, or dying. All the initial vaccine trials, and the trials that were submitted to the FDA, TGA and
other regulators were based on this end goal. The FDA/TGA approved the vaccine to be marketed under
emergency use based on this end goal only. Neither the FDA nor the vaccine manufacturers looked at
transmission rates in those who had been vaccinated – which was not considered. Thus, efficacy was
based solely on hospitalised or not hospitalised, intubated or not intubated, dying or not dying.
4. The vaccines were developed for the Alpha variant and are demonstrating less-than-expected efficacy
against the Delta variant. This is being demonstrated in countries that first reached high levels of vaccination
such as Israel, where effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine is less than 40% (below the minimum level usually
required for drug approval) and the Delta variant is spreading unchecked.
This has led experts to consider that regulators should demand adequate, controlled studies with long term
follow up, and make data publicly available, before granting full approval to Covid-19 vaccines. Many leading
virologists, epidemiologists, doctors and vaccine researchers are calling for an immediate halt to the
vaccination program internationally until these issues are resolved, to safeguard public safety.
5. Studies are showing that the effect of the vaccines starts reducing after two months of the second
vaccine dose, followed by a complete diminution after 6 months and requiring ongoing boosters. This
was in fact envisioned by the vaccine manufacturers at the outset. ‘Booster’ shots compound the risk of
adverse reactions, an issue that is not being assessed or communicated to the public.
6. Studies are beginning to emerge demonstrating that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger
protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalisation caused by the Delta variant of Sars-
CoV-2, compared to two-dose vaccine-induced immunity.
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7. Vaccinologists, clinicians and scientists are only focusing on the short-term benefits and impacts at an
individual level, without looking at the consequences and risk at a human population level. Experts are now
warning that mass vaccination campaigns will result in an aggravation of the Covid-19 pandemic due to
‘immune escape’, as none of the current vaccines can prevent replication/transmission of more infectious
viral variants created by the government interventions themselves.
A recent Israeli study has demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection
against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared
to the BNT162b2 (Pfizer) two-dose vaccine-induced immunity.
Risk to children:
Government promotion of vaccinating young people is pushing against the science, which is advising that the
risks of vaccination compared with the very low risk of Covid-19 in young people does not support this. In the
UK, the assessment by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) is that “the health benefits
from vaccination are marginally greater than the potential known harms. However, the margin of benefit is
considered too small to support universal vaccination of healthy 12 to 15 year olds at this time.”
In Australia, the same conclusion was reached by the Doherty Institute Modelling Report for National Cabinet
released on 3 August 2021, which concluded, “Expanding the vaccine program to the 12-15 year age group has
minimal impact on transmission and clinical outcomes for any achieved level of vaccine uptake”.
Yet governments continue to push a politico-social agenda that ignores risk and recommendations of experts.
Within this context, following is a summary of adverse events following immunisation (AEFI) reported to the
TGA to 29 August 2021, predominantly from the AstraZenica (Vaxveria) and Pfizer (Comirnaty) vaccines. A
further breakdown of these AEFIs is provided on the following pages:
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Synthesis tables – risk of Covid-19 vs vaccination:
The following tables look at risk of adverse reactions and death following vaccination versus risk of death from
Covid-19, in the over & under 50 & 70 age groupings (Sources: Department of Health & TGA Covid-19 reporting)
Overall, people who receive the vaccine have a two- to six-fold increased risk of a severe adverse event
compared to those who do not receive the vaccine.
In the first instance, the purchaser (i.e. the Government) acknowledges and agrees that Pfizer’s efforts to develop
and manufacture the vaccine are “aspirational in nature and subject to significant risks and uncertainties”.
During the Provisional approval period, governments are also prohibited from terminating the contract should
another vaccine or successful treatment for Covid-19 be completed or approved earlier.
The contract also indemnifies Pfizer from all liability resulting from its product:
Meanwhile, Governments around the world have declined to adopt, investigate or allow medical practitioners to
offer patients early outpatient treatments employing protocols that including an array of existing anti-viral drugs
with established safety profiles.
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Further breakdown of adverse events & deaths reported to TGA:
Following is a breakdown of adverse reactions reported on the TGA Database of Adverse Event Notifications
(DAEN) to 7 August 2021, sorted in order of number of cases where death was a reported outcome:
Detailed report by organ class, reaction type and number of cases/ deaths reported is as follows (PTO):
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Resources & references:
Government:
TGA COVID-19 vaccine safety monitoring and reporting. https://www.tga.gov.au/covid-19-vaccine-safety-
monitoring-and-reporting
Public Health England: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England, Technical
briefing 22, 3 September 2021.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1014926
/Technical_Briefing_22_21_09_02.pdf
Doherty Institute Modelling Report for National Cabinet, 3 August 2021. https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-
events/news/doherty-institute-modelling-report-for-national-cabinet
UK Government. JCVI issues updated advice on COVID-19 vaccination of children aged 12 to 15.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-issues-updated-advice-on-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-aged-
12-to-15
Other:
Covid Medical Network. https://covidmedicalnetwork.com/default.aspx
Covid Medical Network: Open Letter To All Doctors and All Australians.
https://covidmedicalnetwork.com/open-letters/first-do-no-harm.aspx
COVID-19: Where Are We Going? – Assessment of novel mRNA/DNA vaccines (Prof Robert Clancy, University of
Newcastle Medical School). https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/public-health/2021/06/covid-19-where-are-we-
going/
Pathophysiological Basis and Rationale for Early Outpatient Treatment of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Infection.
McCullough et al, 6 Aug 2020. https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(20)30673-2/fulltext
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