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List of Figures

Fig. 1: Location Map of the Study area


Data Set
Landsat5 (TM) Landsat7 Landsat5 Landsat8 DEM
1990 (ETM+) 2000 (TM) 2010 (OLI) 2020)

Ground truth data and elders information

Data pre-processing (atmospheric correction, image enhancement, etc.)

Training samples
Validation samples
LULC Classification using Random Forest classification

NO Accuracy assessment

YES

Classification maps of year 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 2020 LULC Map

LULC Change Detection (1990 – 2000, 2000 – 2010, 2010 – 2020, and 1990 - 2020)

tion Probability Matrix and Transition Area Matrix (2000 – 2010) Transition Probability Matrix and Transition Area Matrix (20010 – 2020)
Markov Chain Analysis

CA-Markov model
Factors to LULCs Change Suitability Map

Predicted 2020 LULC Map


Constraints to LULCs Change

No Model Validation

YES

Calibrated CA-Markov Model

Predicted 2030 and 2050 LULC Maps

LULC change trend assessment (1990 – 2050)

Fig.2: Research methodological flow chart


Fig.3: Suitability maps: (A) Agriculture, (B) Built-up, (C) Grassland, (D) Vegetation, and(E) Water body; and input data: (F)
Elevation, (G) Slope, (H) Built-up 2010, and (I) Main Road.
Fig.4: Historical LULC Statistics (1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020)
Area (ha) 1990 2000 2010 2020
4500
4000

4161.8

2977.2

2926.2
3500
2783.8

3474.4
3000
2500
2647.3

2000

2235.1

1918.9
1500

1455.1
1324.1

1000
156.9

1438.5

2325.5
2553.4

2505.7

119.1

139.6
500
498.2

109.4

103.3
Agriculture Built-up Vegetation Grass land Water body

Fig. 5: Land use/land cover change from 1990–2020


Yea Net change
r
Water Water
Vegetation Vegetation
1990-2000

Grasses Grasses
Built up Built up
Agriculture Agriculture

00 00 00 00 0 0 00 00 00 00 0 00 0 00 00 00
0 5 0 -5 50 10 15 20 25 00 0 10 20 30
-2 -1 -1 -2 -1

Water Water
Vegetation Vegetation
2000-2010

Grasses Grasses
Built up Built up
Agriculture Agriculture

00 00 0 00 00 0 0 00 00 00 0 0 0 0 0 00 00
5 0 50 0 -5 50 10 15 5 00 -5 50 10 15
-2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1

Water Water

Vegetation Vegetation
2010-2020

Grasses Grasses
Built up Built up
Agriculture Agriculture

00 0 0 00 00 00 0
0 00 10 20 30 0 00 00 00 0
20
0
40
0
60
0
-2 -1 -8 -6 -4 -2
Fig. 6: Historical LULC losses, gains, and net changes constructed by author
Fig.7: Classified and Projected 2020of Burayu City
Fig.8: Classified land use/land cover (1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020)
Agriculture Built up
3000 8000
2000 6000
4000
Hectors

Hectors
1000 2000
0 0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2050

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2050
Year Year

Grasses Vegetation
4000 4000
3000 3000
2000 2000
Hectors

Hectors
1000 1000
0 0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2050

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2050
Year Year

Water Total
150
8000
100
Hectors

Hectors

4000
50
0 0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2050

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2050
Year Year

Fig. 9: Historical and simulated LULC for Burayu town (1990 - 2050)

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