Republic of the Philippines

CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE

F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

is a mathematical method for solving statistical issues using probability. It gives people the resources
they need to reconsider their views in light of new information.

BAYESIAN STATICS BAYESIAN INFERENCE TEST FOR

SIGNIFICANCE

CONDITIONAL NERNOULI P-VALUE

PROBABILITY LIKELIHOOD
FUNCTION Following the
It is defined as calculation of the t-
the: The The likelihood of score for a specific
probability of an seeing a specific sample from a
occurrence A number of heads in a sampling distribution
given B is equal specific number of of fixed size, p-values
to the likelihood coin flips for a are then predicted.
of A and B specific number of
occurring coins This indicates
together divided that our likelihood of
by the likelihood seeing heads or tails
of B occurring. CONFIDENCE
depends on the
INTERVALS
coin's mass.
Considering that C.I.
is not a probability
BAYES distribution, which
THEOREM values are likely to
PRIOR BELIEF occur cannot be
when a number determined.
DISTRIBUTION
of events
combine to is employed to
produce an express our opinions'
exhaustive set BAYES FACTOR
strengths regarding
with event B. the criteria based on is the equivalent of p-
prior experience. value in the Bayesian
framework

HIGHDENSITY
INTERVEAL
HDI is formed from
the posterior
distribution after
observing the new
data.
 Republic of the Philippines
CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE
F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
- To revise and update the initial assessments of the event probabilities generated by the alternative
solutions.
- is a statistical paradigm that answers research questions about unknown parameters using
probability statements.

BAYES’ THEOREM/RULE:

LIKELIHOOD RATIO – it tells us how much

we should shift our suspicion for a particular
test result.

EVIDENCE – This is the probability of data

as determined by summing (or integrating)
across all possible values of θ, weighted by
how strongly we believe in those values of θ.

POSTERIOR ODDS – It is the result of how

much you would believe a particular
statement based on numerical data that you
have obtained.

PRIOR ODDS – it refers to the strength of

our belief.
 Republic of the Philippines
CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE
F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

Example:
Claire mentions to her brother that she has a friend who has breast cancer but doesn’t say much
else. Recently her brother saw a documentary about males with breast cancer. He wonders if his
sister’s friend is a male. His gut feeling is that it’s not that likely they’re male. To know the probability
that his sister’s friend is a male having a breast cancer he used Bayesian Theorem.

BAYES’ CRITERION
Selects the decision alternative having the maximum expected payoff, or the minimum expected loss
if he is working with a loss table.

Therefore, since the result was 0.79%,

which didn't even reach 1%, we may
arrive at the conclusion that it is
unlikely for his sister's acquaintance, a
man, to get breast cancer.

This idea about updating beliefs is core to BAYESIAN STATISTICS and can be used to Test
Hypotheses, by starting with some idea or belief about how something works.
 Republic of the Philippines
CAMARINES NORTE STATE COLLEGE
F. Pimentel Avenue, Brgy. 2, Daet, Camarines Norte – 4600, Philippines

Reference/s:

Bayesian Statistics Explained in Simple English For Beginners (analyticsvidhya.com)

You Know I’m All About that Bayes: Crash Course Statistics #24 - YouTube

GROUP 2
MEMBERS:

Asis, Jemm

Avellana, Gjene Reijh

Balte, Richard

Bardon, Hannah Mikaela

Bersabe, Anna Marie