VALUASI EKUITAS

Valuasi Relatif
(Relative Valution

Kelipatan Laba Kelipatan Nilai Buku Kelipatan Pendapatan

(Earning Multiple) (Book Value Multiples) (Revenue Multiples)

Price to Earning = f Price to Book Value = Price to Sales = f

(growth, payout ratio, f (growth, payout ratio, (growth, payout ratio,
risk) risk, ROE) risk, Margin)

Price to Earning = Price to Book Value Price to Sales =

Market price per = Price per share/Book Market Value of Equity
share/Earning per share Value per Equity per /Revenues
share
= Market Value of Enterprise Value to Sales
Equity/ Book Value Of Ratio = (MVE+MVD-
Equity Cash)/Revenues
VALUASI RELATIF
PER
 PRICE
PER = -------------------------- HARGA WAJAR = PER * EPS/LBR
EPS

EAT
Harga Pasar
EPS = ----------------------
JLH LEMBAR SAHAM

IF HARGA WAJAR > HARGA PASAR = MURAH = UNDERPRICE (UNDERVALUE)

IF HARGA WAJAR < HARGA PASAR = MAHAL = OVERPRICE = OVERPRICE)
 CONTOH TRIWULAN 1:2018; 1:2019; 1:2020; PROYEKSI 1:2021
Perhitungan harga wajar:
PRICE
EPS (TTM) Mean PER (TTM) Harga Wajar
PER = --------------------------
Rp278.66 12.96 Rp3,611
EPS
Perhitungan diskon/margin of safety:
Harga Saat Ini Harga Wajar Diskon/MOS
EAT Rp3,350 Rp3,611 7.24%
EPS = ----------------------
JLH LEMBAR SAHAM Jan- Maret 2021

CONTOH EPS =Q1:2018; Q1:2019; Q1:2020: MEAN= 278.66; PROYEKSI Q1:2021

CONTOH PER =Q1:2018; Q1:2019; Q1:2020: MEAN= 12, 96; PROYEKSI Q1:2021
PBV
 PRICE
PBV = --------------------------
Book Value Equity
per Share HARGA WAJAR = PBV *BVE/LBR

EKUITAS
BVE/lbr = ----------------------
JLH LEMBAR SAHAM HARGA PASAR

IF HARGA WAJAR > HARGA PASAR = MURAH = UNDERPRICE (UNDERVALUE)

IF HARGA WAJAR < HARGA PASAR = MAHAL = OVERPRICE = OVERPRICE)
IF PBV > 1 (OVER VALUE) – MASALAHNYA RATA-RATA PERUSAHAAN BAIK, PBV
DIATAS 1
BANDINGKAN PBV DENGAN TAHUN BANDINGKAN PBV DENGAN USAHA
SOLUSI
SEBELUMNYA SEJENIS
A (Lancar + Tetap) = L (Lancar +Panjang) +
Ekuitas)
PRICE
PBV = --------------------------
Book Value Equity HARGA WAJAR = PBV *BVE/LBR
per Share

EKUITAS
BVE/lbr = ----------------------
JLH LEMBAR SAHAM
HARGA PASAR

HITUNG: PBV =TRIWULAN 1:2018; 1:2019; 1:2020: MEAN= 278.66; PROYEKSI 1:2021
HITUNG: BVE =TRIWULAN 1:2018; 1:2019; 1:2020: MEAN= 12, 96; PROYEKSI 1:2021
PSR
 HITUNG: PBV =TRIWULAN 1:2018; 1:2019; 1:2020: MEAN= 278.66; PROYEKSI 1:2021
HITUNG: BVE =TRIWULAN 1:2018; 1:2019; 1:2020: MEAN= 12, 96; PROYEKSI 1:2021
CONTOH Laporan Rugi Laba:
Penjualan (Revenue) –HPP = Laba Operasi – By
adm dan Pemasaran = Laba Operasi – Bunga =
Price EBT- Pajak = EAT
P/S = --------------------------
Sales/LBR
HARGA WAJAR = (P/S *
(Sales)/LBR
Sales
Sales/SAHAM= ----------------------
Jumlah Lbr saham
Harga Pasar
BCA Website
Idx.com
OJK, BI, Investing IF HARGA WAJAR > HARGA PASAR = MURAH = UNDERPRICE (UNDERVALUE)
Yohoofinance IF HARGA WAJAR < HARGA PASAR = MAHAL = OVERPRICE = OVERPRICE)
Annual Report
CONTOH APLIKASI
 2018 2019 2020 Mean 2021
Perioda
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
Harga Saham Per Lembar (Close) 7200 7250 8100 7,516.67
Sales ? ? ? ?
EAT ? ? ? ?
Ekuitas Total (Saham) ? ? ? ?
Jumlah Lembar Saham ? ? ? ?

2018 2019 2020 Mean

Per Lembar Saham
Q1 Q1 Q1
Sales Per Share (SPS) 2,846 7,945 2,103 4,298.00
Earning Per Share (EPS) 735 1,108 576 806.33
Book Value Per Share (BVPS) 765 3,064 1,351 1,726.67

Multiple Mean
P/S 2.53 0.91 3.85 2.43
PER = P/E 9.80 6.54 14.06 10.13
PBV = P/BV 9.41 2.37 6.00 5.92
 Metode Multiple Over/Under
Perusahaan Periode Harga Keputusan DISKON/PREMI
Metode Multp (Mean) Var Funda Indikasi Bobot Nilai Bobot Nilai Ket
PT XYZ Q1 2021 8,100 P/S 2.43 4,298.00 10,449.91 0.33 3,483.30 (2,349.91) Under Value Buy/Hold 0.2249
Q1 2021 8,100 PER 10.13 806.33 8,171.31 0.33 2,723.77 (71.31) Under Value Buy/Hold 0.0087
Q1 2021 8,100 PBV 5.92 1,726.67 10,229.64 0.33 3,409.88 (2,129.64) Under Value Buy/Hold 0.2082
8,100 1.00 9,616.96 (1,516.96) Under Value Buy/Hold 0.1577
PT XYZ Q2, 2021 P/S
Q2, 2021 PER
Q2, 2021 PBV

PT XYZ Q3,2021 PBV

Q3,2021 PER
Q3,2021 P/S

PT XYZ Q4,2021 PBV

Q4,2021 PER
Q4,2021 P/S
CASE STUDY: INKP
2. INKP

INKP
INKP

Dalam Miliaran IDR 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
Total Pendapatan 41,515 44,805 48,301 42,377 36,552 39,099 32,782 32,343 24,350 23,214
Revenue Total Beban Pokok Penjualan -29,521 -32,624 -30,869 -30,136 -28,742 -30,684 -27,137 -26,846 -21,180 -20,241
Laba Kotor 11,994 12,181 17,431 12,241 7,810 8,415 5,646 5,497 3,170 2,973
Total Beban Usaha -4,607 -4,392 -4,485 -4,076 -3,954 -3,902 -3,255 -3,380 -2,497 -2,261
Laba Usaha 7,387 7,790 12,947 8,165 3,856 4,513 2,391 2,116 673 711
Penghasilan/beban Lain-lain -2,056 -2,259 -2,292 -1,973 -1,903 -1,342 -819 408 -362 -503
Laba Sebelum Pajak 5,331 5,531 10,654 6,193 1,952 3,171 1,571 2,524 311 208
Beban Pajak Penghasilan -1,243 -1,717 -2,137 -593 772 -98 -2 174 170 -62
Laba Bersih Dari Operasi Yang D... 4,088 3,814 8,518 5,599 2,724 3,073 1,569 2,698 481 146
Hak Minoritas - - - - - - - - - -
Laba Bersih Tahun Berjalan 4,088 3,814 8,518 5,599 2,724 3,073 1,569 2,698 481 146
Pendapatan Komprehensif Lain -20 -31 71 -37 47 141 - - - -
Jumlah Laba Komprehensif 4,068 3,784 8,589 5,563 2,771 3,213 1,569 2,698 481 146
NI Laba Bersih Yang Dapat Diatribu... 4,088 3,814 8,518 5,599 2,724 3,073 1,569 2,698 481 146
Laba Komprehensif Yang Dapat Di... 4,068 3,784 8,589 5,563 2,771 3,213 1,569 2,698 481 146
2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
GROSS MARGIN (%) > 40% 28.9% 27.2% 36.1% 28.9% 21.4% 21.5% 17.2% 17.0% 13.0% 12.8%
NET MARGIN (%) > 20% 9.8% 8.5% 17.6% 13.2% 7.5% 7.9% 4.8% 8.3% 2.0% 0.6%
 Dalam Miliaran IDR 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
Aset
Aset Lancar

DER Kas Dan Setara Kas

Piutang Usaha
12,107
17,996
10,756
16,244
10,951
15,830
8,401
11,776
2,834
9,143
2,372
8,480
1,485
2,536
916
2,418
1,365
2,998
534
3,114
Piutang Lain-lain 48 75 53 39 27 52 57 77 82 66
Persediaan 5,073 5,666 17,116 12,865 13,137 11,941 10,836 11,058 8,559 6,230
Others 25,138 25,848 16,734 9,533 4,243 5,768 5,708 7,176 3,212 3,366
Total Aset Lancar 60,361 58,590 60,684 42,613 29,384 28,613 20,621 21,644 16,216 13,310
Aset Tidak Lancar
Aset Pajak Tangguhan - - - - - 1 - - 2 2
Piutang Usaha - - - - - - - 145 408 456
Piutang Pihak Berelasi 1,539 1,845 1,913 1,794 1,782 1,838 1,660 1,778 1,676 1,583

ROE Investasi Pada Entitas A...

Aset Tetap
148
46,938
140
50,800
137
56,963
69
51,965
62
54,329
59
59,148
51
54,673
47
54,614
36
41,440
35
38,158
Others 9,137 6,813 7,027 6,987 6,867 7,436 4,101 4,440 4,502 3,755
Total Aset Tidak Lanca... 57,763 59,597 66,039 60,815 63,039 68,482 60,485 61,024 48,065 43,989
Total Aset 118,124 118,187 126,723 103,429 92,424 97,095 81,106 82,668 64,281 57,299
Liabilitas Dan Ekuitas
Liabilitas
Liabilitas Jangka Pendek 26,734 25,480 25,222 20,362 18,384 20,413 14,931 14,781 9,663 12,587
Liabilitas Jangka Panjan... 32,307 37,024 46,886 39,474 36,158 40,496 36,213 39,905 34,574 26,367
Total Liabilitas 59,041 62,504 72,108 59,836 54,542 60,909 51,144 54,686 44,237 38,954
Ekuitas
Modal Saham 30,434 30,430 31,699 29,657 29,412 30,197 27,234 26,702 21,168 19,850
Tambahan Modal Disetor 82 82 85 80 79 80 72 71 56 53
Saldo Laba 28,436 25,020 22,642 13,746 8,246 5,809 2,652 1,205 -1,182 -1,558
EPS Kepentingan Non Pengenda... 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 4 2 1
Others 123 144 182 104 139 94 - - - -
Total Ekuitas 59,083 55,683 54,616 43,593 37,881 36,186 29,963 27,982 20,044 18,345
Total Liabilitas Dan Ekuitas 118,124 118,187 126,723 103,429 92,424 97,095 81,106 82,668 64,281 57,299
Saham Beredar 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.47

ROE 7% 7% 16% 13% 7% 8% 5% 10% 2% 1%

DER 55% 66% 86% 91% 95% 112% 121% 143% 172% 144%
EPS 747 697 1557 1024 498 562 287 493 88 27
 Dalam Miliaran IDR 12M 2020 12M 2019 12M 2018 12M 2017 12M 2016 12M 2015 12M 2014 12M 2013 12M 2012 12M 2011
Arus Kas Dari Aktivitas Operasi 7,562 7,294 7,885 9,020 2,203 2,223 3,751 4,441 1,549 1,467
Arus Kas Dari Aktivitas Investa... -2,234 761 -10,871 -4,973 1,143 -3,183 -315 -6,043 -3,337 -4,317
FCF
Arus Kas Dari Aktivitas Pendana... -3,752 -7,806 5,038 1,490 -2,826 1,670 -2,891 795 2,580 2,828
Kenaikan (penurunan) Bersih Kas... 1,576 249 2,053 5,537 520 709 544 -808 792 -22
Dampak Neto Perubahan Nilai Tuk... -227 -6 -81 6 3 17 6 2 4 -3
Kas Dan Setara Kas Awal Periode 10,758 10,513 8,980 2,858 2,311 1,646 934 1,722 570 559
Kas Dan Setara Kas Akhir Period... 12,107 10,756 10,951 8,401 2,834 2,372 1,485 916 1,365 534

Laba Bersih (NI) 4,088 3,814 8,518 5,599 2,724 3,073 1,569 2,698 481 146

RE (RETAINED EARNING) 28,436 25,020 22,642 13,746 8,246 5,809 2,652 1,205 -1,182 -1,558
CAPEX
CAPEX 2260 600 5397 1505 510 5594 1950 4118 3621 2525
CAPEX/NI < 25% 55% 16% 63% 27% 19% 182% 124% 153% 753% 1729%
CAPEX/RE 7.9% 2.4% 23.8% 10.9% 6.2% 96.3% 73.5% 341.7% -306.3% -162.1%
Perhitungan harga wajar:
Current BVPS Mean PV Harga Wajar
11,687.47 0.50 IDR 5,843.74

Perhitungan diskon/margin of safety:

Harga Saat Ini Harga Wajar Diskon/MOS
IDR 6,275.00 IDR 5,843.74 -7.38%

*Data Q2-2021
MOS 50% IDR 2,921.87
35% IDR 3,798.43
20% IDR 4,674.99
Perhitungan harga wajar:
EPS (TTM) Mean PER (TTM) Harga Wajar
IDR 581.79 8.23 IDR 4,788.13

Perhitungan diskon/margin of safety:

Harga Saat Ini Harga Wajar Diskon/MOS
IDR 6,275.00 IDR 4,788.13 -31.05%

*Data EPS (TTM) Q2-2021

MOS 50% IDR 2,394.07
35% IDR 3,112.29
20% IDR 3,830.51

PBV IDR 5,843.74

PER IDR 4,788.13 IDR 5,315.93
IDR 6,275.00
MOS -18%