One

X–axis of this graph represents the possible

performance times of the activity considered.
The Y–axis of this graph represents the
frequency (number of times) of completing this
activity with different completion times marked
on the X – axis.

Another method of expressing the relationship is

in the form of a probability distribution curve. In
the case of a probability distribution curve,
Skew to the left Skew to the right
(along CP)
curve.
Fig. 10
z
Solution
x

X (te)
Critical events are 1, 2, 4, 5
CP is 1 – 2 – 4 - 5 and Expected project completion time, Te = 30 days
Variance of Project Length, VT = 4 + 9 + 9 = 22

S.D. of Project Length, T

Probability of completing the project in 35 days

T
Critical events are 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8

CP is 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 6 – 7 – 8 and Expected project completion time, Te = 35 days

Variance of Project Length,
VT = 1 + 4 + 0 + 7.11 + 1.77 + 0.44 = 14.32
S.D. of Project Length, T

Probability of completing the project in 40 days

z = 40 – 35 = 1.32
3.78

From ND Tables, Probability = 90.66 %

( c ) Time duration that will provide 95% probability of its completion in time

or Ts = 42 days