Decision Science

June 2022 Examination

Answer 1: Introduction:

Probabilities may be described using a tree diagram in mathematics and probability theory. 

• The end of each branch may reveal the result of an event. Using tree diagrams to represent
the chance of specific occurrences happening is possible.

Utilizing the occurrences to generate tree diagrams. Additionally, they may be referred to as
parents or leaders. They continue to discuss further scenarios. Each occurrence has a
probability that is predefined. Multiplying these branches yields the probability that each
series will occur, with all probabilities equaling 1.0.

Decision trees represent a statistical method. Similar characteristics characterise decision tree
diagrams and probability tree diagrams. It facilitates decision-making by displaying a range
of options and their outcomes. Mathematicians utilise this method to develop an algorithm
based on conditional statements.

Concept and Application

Three different airlines service Srinagar. Amira Airlines conducts more than fifty percent of
all flights. Biyas Airlines, which operates 30% of all flights, has a similar technique. Chinar
Airlines is in charge of twenty percent of all domestic flights. The value of on-time flights
increases by 80 percent, 60 percent, and 65 percent.

In probability theories, a tree diagram may be used to depict probability space. These
diagrams may be used to depict a sequence of events, such as the flipping of a coin. Also
possible are conditional probabilities, such as removing cards from a deck without replacing
them.

Each node in the tree diagram indicates an occurrence possibility. The first component is the
likelihood that something will occur. Parent events are broadcast separately from shared and
sibling node events.
In probability theory, a probability zone is represented by a tree diagram. The possibility tree
graphic depicts a series of unrelated or conditional occurrences. A series of coin tosses is
comparable to a discrete event. This is an entirely fabricated story. You need not rearrange
the deck in order to draw a card. The nodes of the probability tree each represent an event
with the same probability and outcome.

The probability diagram and decision tree may be substituted for one another. It enables you
to differentiate between unsafe and safe results. Mathematicians use it to build a collection of
rules including conditionally manipulable claims.

This opportunity diagram is intended to calculate the airline Amira's potential. Listed below
are the files needed to analyse the opportunity chart.

Event A represents the scheduled flights of airline Amira.

Event B represents the scheduled flights of airline Biyas.

Event C examines the remaining flights of Chinar.

These flights are very likely to occur

P (Amira), = 0.50

P (Biyas) = 0.30

P (Chinar), 0.20

Consider the posterior probabilities.

Amira = 0.80

P (E|Biyas) = 0.65

Chinar = 0.40

Airline A accounts for 50% of all scheduled flights, while airline B accounts 30% and airline
D 20%. They have 80% and 65% respectively for on-time schedule flights.
Let’s take another look at

Airline A has flights scheduled for Event A.

Airline B schedules Event B.

The occasion C represents the Airline C’s scheduled flight schedules.

The occasion E indicates that the flight was completed on time.

It is important to determine if Srinagar will leave Srinagar and if Srinagar will be flown by
Amira.

If you subtract the probability (posterior) and prior, Bayer’s Law yields.

P(A|E) = P(E|A)xP(A)

P(E|B)xP(B)+P(E|C)xP(C)P(E|A)xP(A)

P ((A|E)= (0.80*0.50)/(0.80*0.50)+(0.65*0.30)+(0.40*0.20)= 0.59259

= 0.4/0.675

= 0.59259

= 0.593

According to Amira, Srinagar was reached by the Srinagar flight. Its number is 0.5993.

= 59.26%.

Utilize a probability tree diagram to total the probabilities of several events. The assistance-
of-the-equal may be used to predict certain outcomes. This tool may be used to build complex
probability equations. In some instances, it may be difficult to determine whether to multiply
or upload probability. Opportunity tree diagrams are a helpful tool. Simplifying the technique
may help you identify whether addition or multiplication is required.
Conclusion

The possibility tree diagram is a useful tool for evaluating the probabilities of different
events. A possibility tree diagram may be used to illustrate the potential effects of certain
alterations. This technique outperforms more advanced probability calculations. In particular
situations, it may be difficult to determine whether to include or omit options based on a
sophisticated probability computation. A probability tree diagram may be useful in this
circumstance. This illustration may assist you in deciding whether to multiply or add integers.
Using tree diagrams, one may illustrate the probability of specific occurrences. Also possible
are conditional probabilities, such as drawing cards from a deck. Srinagar is served by three
airlines, which account for more than half of all flights and 20% of domestic flights.

Answer 2: Introduction

Variables are required to indicate the attributes of distinct values. These elements are
essential for determining the features of distinctive values. Among the variables are
temperature, height, and other characteristics. Researchers used independent and dependent
variables to establish relationships between observable characteristics or elements. Problem-
causing dependent variables are referred to as "troublemakers." The study variables will
determine the significance of the variable. Explicit variables may be advantageous and
productive. There is an immediate impact on the dependent variables. Differentiating
between independent and dependent components may be tricky. A non-specialist may find it
difficult to differentiate between academic writing and a complex observation. To assess the
reliability of neutral components, it is vital to identify whether they have been modified by
researchers.

Without variables, application and idea investigations are inadequate. Researchers may use
variables to detect characteristics and get more accurate findings. Temperature and altitude
are two other factors to take into account. When attempting to establish relationships between
an observation's most relevant characteristics, researchers often miss unbiased and objective
aspects. The contest was prompted by a description of a pre-existing variable. The costs will
be modified by the additional elements listed. The objective and impact of unbiased variables
are polar opposites. It is capable of modifying independent variables in real time.
It might have a considerable effect on the quantity of data gathered and the experiment's
outcome. Because it has a unique cause, it is known as an independent variable. None of the
other components interact with one another. In some instances, independent variables are also
known as explanatory factors. They are used to describe what happened and why it occurred.
This may be used to modify dependent variables or to determine exchange rates for
independent variables.

Excel in data:

Sales Ad Spend Sales Rep customer-satisfaction ratings

5532 5512 1 1
8
5625 8337 1 1
1
5712 8788 4 1
6
5873 8828 5 1
9
6698 9050 5 2
4
7067 10150 7 2
6
7320 11236 8 2
6
8057 12538 8 3
1
9316 13161 8 3
8
9943 13448 9 4
2

Excel regression: Data->Data Analysis->Regression

Excel regression op
SUMMA
RY
OUTPUT
Regressio
n
Statistics
Multiple 0.981088
R 188
R Square 0.962534
032
Adjusted 0.943801
R Square 048
Standard 3721.755
Error 87
Observati 10
ons
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significa
nce F
Regressio 3 2135139 7.12E+ 51.381 0.000113
n 002 08 78 414
Residual 6 8310880 138514
0.55 67
Total 9 2218247
803
Coefficie Standard t Stat P- Lower Upper Lower Upper
nts Error value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 32355.26 8538.400 3.7893 0.0090 11462.54 53247. 11462. 53247.
089 022 82 8 869 97 55 97
Ad Spend 1.686835 1.500232 1.1243 0.3038 - 5.3577 - 5.3577
512 214 83 11 1.984100 71 1.9841 71
472
Sales Rep - 1061.613 - 0.8883 - 2442.1 - 2442.1
155.5294 404 0.1465 23 2753.203 45 2753.2 45
991 919
cust Sat 11309.33 2589.262 4.3677 0.0047 4973.636 17645. 4973.6 17645.
Rating 441 959 81 3 19 03 36 03

We get the following answers from above op:

Section 1: Define dependent, independent variables

dependent Vars. Kathwa sales

Independent Vars – Number of sales representatives, Adveritising expenditures, Customer

Satisfaction rating.

Part 2

Sales = B0 + Sales representatives + + b2* (Adveritising expense), + + b3*(Customer

satisfaction rating).

Part 3:

Run regression analysis using EXCEL. Paste all EXCEL tables into your document.

Excel Regression output

SUMMA
RY
OUTPUT
Regressio
n
Statistics
Multiple 0.981088
R 188
R Square 0.962534
032
Adjusted 0.943801
R Square 048
Standard 3721.755
Error 87
Observati 10
ons
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significa
nce F
Regressio 3 2135139 7.12E+ 51.381 0.000113
n 002 08 78 414
Residual 6 8310880 138514
0.55 67
Total 9 2218247
803
Coefficie Standard t Stat P- Lower Upper Lower Upper
nts Error value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 32355.26 8538.400 3.7893 0.0090 11462.54 53247. 11462. 53247.
089 022 82 8 869 97 55 97
Ad Spend 1.686835 1.500232 1.1243 0.3038 - 5.3577 - 5.3577
512 214 83 11 1.984100 71 1.9841 71
472
Sales Rep - 1061.613 - 0.8883 - 2442.1 - 2442.1
155.5294 404 0.1465 23 2753.203 45 2753.2 45
991 919
cust Sat 11309.33 2589.262 4.3677 0.0047 4973.636 17645. 4973.6 17645.
Rating 441 959 81 3 19 03 36 03

Part 4

Send us your interpretation of the impact of independent variables on sales.

ANOVA tables overall significance

p = 0.000110.05
We also REJECT THE NULL, concluding that the regression model for fir was statistically
significant.

The AdjR2= 0.9438 also indicates that the model can account for 94.38% of total variability.

Coefficient Table:

Advertising Spend: pvalue = 0.3038>0.05. It’s not an important predictor for sales.

Sales rep: p= 0.888>0.5. Sales reps don’t also predict sales.

Customer satisfaction rating: p=0.004730.05. The customer satisfaction rating can predict the
success of sales.

Interpretation

In an experiment, the dependent variable is the variable that is being measured or assessed. In
an investigation of tutoring and test performance, the test scores would serve as the
dependent variable. Psychologists examine the link between two variables (dependent and
independent) (the dependent variable). 2 Experiments may be used to examine the influence
of independent factors on dependent variables and to develop conclusions regarding cause-
and-effect relationships. At times, differentiating between dependent and independent
components could be problematic. When reading a report or doing research, it may be
challenging to discern between independent and dependent variables. It is essential, while
assessing the validity of independent variables, to determine if the researcher can control
them.

Researchers used independent and dependent variables to establish relationships between

observable characteristics or elements. Temperature and altitude are two other factors to take
into account. Similarly, implicit variables may have a function and have an instantaneous
influence on dependent variables. It may be difficult for non-specialists to discern between
independent and dependent components. In an experiment, the dependent variable is the
variable that is being measured or assessed. Psychologists examine the link between two
variables (dependent and independent) (the dependent variable). Independent variables are
variables that are not influenced by other factors and are beyond the control of the researcher.
Conclusion

Experiments may be difficult. They may also be challenging. Consider the following
inquiries to determine if you made the correct choice. Understanding what a dependent
variable is and how it operates will allow you to comprehend various academic sources.
Consider the effect of the dependent and independent variables on the variables of interest.
They are not impacted by any external circumstances. Existing variables may be more
accurate when analysing an independent variable. Variables that have been identified cause
transformation. Independent variables are unchangeable. These variables are known as
response variables in the field. Other factors could influence this one.

Answer 3a: Introduction:

Reels let you to express yourself freely while refreshing and entertaining your Instagram
account. Individuals may utilise reels to express themselves, interact with others, and
participate in cultural movements. You may utilise creative tools such as music overlays and
augmented reality effects to create videos for your business.

Concept and Application

Instagram Reels enables users to create 15-second music videos. Videos may be shared in a
variety of ways, including via Stories, Explore Feeds, and a user's Reels page.

TokTok and Reels have many commonalities. It is now accessible in fifty nations, including
the United States. Your own page exists on Instagram Reels. The Reels Explore stream is
now available. Within the Explore section of Instagram is the Reels stream. You will see
reels from each account you follow as you scroll. Instead, the reels will include footage from
prominent and active Instagram users. Customers must target the appropriate audience to
achieve success. It is vital to make the expenses and time requirements of organising an
exhibition clear. Those who like their jobs will have difficulty producing high-quality work.

Instagram's emphasis on early adopters is its most important advantage. Instagram is similar.
Facebook users often struggle to figure out how to use new features. Users in India think that
reels facilitate interaction with their followers. Consequently, 75 percent of Instagram users
in India favour Instagram reels.
P= 75% = 0.75, q = 1-P = 0.25

n = 25

X Bin (n=25), p = 0.75

The X-Pmf

P(X = x) = (n/2) Px qn-x

P(exactly 15)

P(X= 15) = (25/15) 0.7515 * 0.2525-15

= (25! / 10! 15!) 0.7515 * 0.2515

= 3268760 * 0.7515 * 0.2510.

= 0.0417

P(X = 20)

P(X= 20) = (25/20) 0.7520 * 0.2525-20

= 53130 * 0.7520 * 0.255

= 0.1645

Conclusion

The intended audience must take primacy. If they are able to reach a larger audience, their
efforts will be more successful. The production of a play requires both time and money. Reels
are an excellent method for expanding your audience and fostering community. Customers
may use reels to develop ties and a sense of community. Reels makes it simple to distribute
original and viral content. Additionally, little quantities may be shared with others. This will
undoubtedly enrage a big number of individuals. Instagram Reels enables users to create 15-
second music videos. Stories, Explore Feeds, and Reels all let users to upload videos. It is
now accessible in fifty nations, including the United States.
Answer 3b: Introduction:

Probability theory is the field of mathematics that investigates random events. Frequently
ignored is one of the most important aspects of machine learning. Those who are not self-
taught may find learning frightening and challenging. The vastness of the region may lead
tourists to get disoriented.

Concept and Application

According to conventional belief, the universe is a book. Consider the advice of those who
have never travelled before. Travel time must be taken into account while planning a trip. By
accurately modelling temporal fluctuations, passenger carriers may enhance their
effectiveness and productivity. However, this is just the beginning. Given the reliance of self-
driving cars on innovation, this may be a significant step toward improved self-driving
vehicle management.

A probability distribution is a method for estimating the likelihood of different experimental

outcomes.

The function is another name for it.

P: A >> R

This transforms A, which is related to sampling space, into a real number. It is the
probability.

To be able to describe a probability range using the function, it must conform to all
Kolmogorov rules.

Non-negativity

One is the best probability.

Any countable disjoint event (mutually exclusive) can be added to.

Given X Normal (mean=10000). s=2400).

a. Probability to receive more than 12,000 hits

P(X>12000) = P((X-mean)/s > (12000-10000)/2400)

=P(Z> 0.83)

= 0.2033

b. The chance of receiving less than 9,000 hits

P(Z<9000) = P(Z<(9000-10000)/2400)

=P(Z<-0.42)

=0.3372

Conclusion

You must understand that not everyone has the means to go such huge distances. Due to
financial and other restraints, travel may be difficult. The study of random variables,
probability distributions, and their relationships. Additionally, they must be able to grasp
them. Also studied were the differences between continuous and discrete variables. Also
presented were the most important probability mass and density functions. If we have a better
grasp of probability distributions, we can make more informed choices, assumptions, and
judgments about the behaviour of random variables and their probable outcomes. Several
companies have utilised virtual travel. Bharat Darshan is one of these institutions. Probability
theory is utilised extensively in machine learning. Those who are not self-taught may find
learning frightening and challenging. If we have more knowledge, we may be able to make
more accurate evaluations, hypotheses, and conclusions about the behaviour and effects of
random variables.