Chapter 12:

Decision Making
and Reasoning.

Presented by: Lozano, Manalo, Pacifico, Rivera, Santos

P., Santos R., & Zamora.
 MECHANICS.
Ice Breaker. Let's Judge the scenario shown
and decide under the
test your judgment given time, and provide
and reasoning. your reasoning for your
answer. The group that
gives the closest answer
or best answer that
meets the real solution
Raise your hand as fast as wins. The group with
you can to answer first. most scores wins.
SCENARIO ONE 5 PTS: IS IT MURDER OR SUICIDE?
ANSWER: MURDER
There are signs of struggle in the room as the
clock is broken.
Two water glasses in the room indicate the
presence of two people which also suggests that
the killer is known to the victim.
There are a book and a pen on the bed which
indicates that the dead person was reading and a
suicide note was written from another pen that
seems to be planted.
The man's crutches are too far from the man
SCENARIO TWO 5 PTS: IS IT MURDER OR SUICIDE?
ANSWER: MURDER
There is a sign of the struggle in the room.
In case of suicide, a bullet wound is generally on
the head but here the wound is on the chest.
The dead man is left-handed as all his stuff like
phone pens are on the left side but the gun is on
the right-hand side (must be planted).
SCENARIO THREE 5 PTS: FIND THE KILLER IN THE SHOP
ANSWER: THE MAN WITH THE CAST
Reason 1: The blood strain is on the left side of the
dead man which means the killer is most likely left-
handed. The cashier and the man with the cashier
are both right-handed.
Reason 2: Why will a man with the cast go for
buying shirts/coats? Seems suspicious.
Reason 3: The man with the cast must be carrying
the weapon inside the cast
SCENARIO FOUR 10 PTS: WHO IS THE KILLER?
ANSWER: THE MURDERER IS NUMBER 4
The knife (a tool of murder that is next to the
victim), is missing from the table.
His clothes are as if he was physically in
contact with someone and is right next to
the toilet door (although they are women’s
toilets the rest of the customers do not have
the ability to see who comes in).
Finally, the observers would see that behind
the murderer’s ear, there is blood.
BONUS ROUND 15 PTS: IS IT MURDER OR SUICIDE?
ANSWER: MURDER
Point 1: His posture and the position of the gun are not in agreement
for someone who wants to kill himself. No doubt the gun was
planted. It appears the man is not left-handed.
Point 2: The blood stain on the wall suggests a different riffle with
higher firepower was used cos the pistol in the picture does not
have the firepower to pass through his head and leave such blood
stains on the wall
Point 3: there appears to be some kind of struggle in the room
suggesting the presence of a stronger person who shot him and
planted the gun in his hands.
The killer tried to put the gun in their hand which would make it seem
as though he actually did kill himself but from my calculations, the
man is not left-handed and that gave the killer away!
Obviously a murder case
 Chapter 12:
Decision Making
and Reasoning.

Presented by: Lozano, Manalo, Pacifico, Rivera, Santos

P., Santos R., & Zamora.

Judgment is the process of evaluating choices or
opportunities with the intent of taking action
Reasoning is the process of evaluating
information to assess a fact or perceive a
relationship, either deductive or inductively.
The rational mind is mankind's
primary means of survival as it
guides our course of action
through exercising judgment
and making decisions.
Classical Decision Theory

Theory were devised by economists,

statistician, and philosophers, not by
psychologists.

Classical decision theory assumes that

decisions should be completely rational and
optimal; thus, the theory employs an optimizing
strategy that seeks the best possible
alternative to maximize the achievement of
goals.
 The Economic Model of
this or that?...
Man and Woman

Assumption of Awareness - the awareness of possible

options and the outcomes of those available options.

Assumption of Infinite Sensitivity - refers to the ability

of a person to evaluate the difference of two
outcomes, no matter how subtle the distinctions among
options may be.

Assumption of Rationality - people make their choices

to maximize something of value, whatever that
something may be.
Subjective Expected Utility Theory

According to subjective expected utility theory, the goal of

human action is to seek pleasure and avoid pain. In making
decisions, people will seek to maximize pleasure (referred to
as positive utility) and to minimize pain (referred to as
negative utility).

Subjective Utility - A calculation based on the individual's

judged weightings of utility (value), rather than on object
criteria.
Subjective Probability - A calculation based on the
individual's estimates of likelihood, rather than on
objective statistical computions.

Heuristics.
Heuristics are mental shortcuts
that lighten the cognitive load of
making decisions.
However, sometimes we
tend to be biased when
making decisions. When
encountering
overwhelming situations,
we conserve energy by
sacrificing the efficiency
and effectiveness of the
outcome of our decisions
even if we are aware that
we are taking shortcuts
(heuristics) and those
decisions can be prone to
a greater error (biases).
Heuristics.

Back in the 1950s, researchers were

challenging the idea of unlimited rationality.
Bounded rationality: In particular, we
humans are not necessarily irrational—we
are rational but within limits (Simon,
1957).
 Satisficing. Representativeness heuristic.
gauges probability according to similarities of a
one of the heuristics formulated, entails
sample to a population and the degree to which

Heuristics.
making the best of limited resources–
we recognize the salient features of a process.
accepting that our choice of one option We try to assess how likely a certain event is,
often precludes our choice of other and we often make our decision by thinking
options. In general, satisficing means about how similar it is to a mental prototype.
Base rates: refers to the prevalence of an event
selecting an option that meets our basic
or characteristic within its population of events
requirements to an adequate degree.
or characteristics
Heuristics.

Elimination by aspects. Availability heuristics.

involves considering the aspects of a
we make judgments on the
decision or an outcome to eliminate
basis/of information on how
choices that are not appealing in
easily we can call to mind
terms of the most important aspect
what we perceive as
or aspects; we eliminate
relevant instances of a
alternatives by focusing on aspects
of each alternative, one at a time.
phenomenon

 Anchoring.
related to availability, a
Heuristics.
Framing. phenomenon that causes a person
to base their estimate on the first
phenomenon they encounter and
in which the way
by which people adjust their
that the options are evaluations of things by means of
certain reference points called
presented end-anchors

influences the

selection of an For example, 2 groups were asked to

estimate an equation.
option.

The first group : 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1

Second group: 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8

 BIASES WHILE HEURISTICS CAN

HELP US SOLVE
PROBLEMS AND SPEED
UP OUR DECISION-
MAKING PROCESS, THEY
CAN INTRODUCE
ILLUSORY CORRELATION ERRORS AND BIAS
OVERCONFIDENCE JUDGMENTS
HINDSIGHT BIAS
 ILLUSORY

CORRELATION

In the case of events, we

We are predisposed to see particular
may see spurious cause-
events or attributes and categories as
effect relationships
going together, even when they do not
In the case of attributes, have strong relationship at all.
we may use personal
prejudices to form and
use stereotypes Back to Agenda Page
 Why are people
overconfident?
OVERCONFIDENCE
1. People may not realize how Individual’s over-valuation of
little they know. her or his own skills, knowledge,
2. They may not realize that or judgment.
their information comes
from unreliable sources.

Back to Agenda Page

HINDSIGHT "“Why didn’t I see it coming?
BIAS It was so obvious!"

We look at a situation
retrospectively, we believe we
easily can see all the signs and
events leading up to a
particular outcome.
The application
of a heuristic to FALLACIES
make a

decision may
lead to

fallacies in
Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand
thinking. Conjunction Fallacy
Sunk-cost Fallacy
 Gambler’s Fallacy and
the Hot Hand

It is a mistaken belief that the

probability of a given random
event, such as winning or losing at
a game of chance, is influenced by
previous random events.

Gambler's Fallacy: different outcome

Hot Hand: same outcome
 Conjunction Fallacy

An individual gives a higher estimate for a

subset of events.

Sunk-cost Fallacy

It represents the decision to continue to

invest in something simply because one has
invested in it before and hopes to recover
one’s investment.
The Gist of It: Do Heuristics
Help Us or Lead Us Astray?
 The Gist of It: Do

Heuristics Help Us or

Take-the-best Heuristics
Lead Us Astray? In making a decision, identify

the single most important

Heuristics do not always

criterion to you for making

lead to wrong judgments

that decision.
or poor decisions (Cohen,

1981).

Fast-and-frugal heuristics (FFH)

based on a small fraction of

information, and decisions using

the heuristics are made rapidly.

 Opportunity Costs

are the prices paid for

availing oneself of certain

opportunities.
Naturalistic Decision Making
Naturalistic Decision Making
field of study that is based

on decision-making in natural

field ofenvironments.
study that is based

on decision-making

in

natural environments.

 Groups that are successful in

Group Decision Making decision-making exhibit a number of

similar characteristics, including the

following:

Benefits
the group is small;

it has open communication;
It can enhance the effectiveness of
decision-making and problem-solving members share a common

The group benefits from the mind-set;

expertise of each of the members
members identify with the

Increase in resources and ideas

group; and
Improved group memory over
individual memory members agree on

acceptable group behavior

Group Decision Making

Groupthink is a phenomenon

characterized by premature

decision-making that is
What conditions lead to groupthink?
generally the result of group

members attempting to avoid

(1) an isolated, cohesive, and homogeneous

conflict. group is empowered to make decisions;

(2) objective and impartial leadership is absent,

within the group or outside it; and

(3) high levels of stress impinge on the group

decision-making process.
 Six symptoms of groupthink:
4. Formation of a “mindguard” for

1. Closed-mindedness—the
the group—one person appoints

group is not open to

himself or herself the keeper of

alternative ideas. the group norm and ensures that

people stay in line.

2. Rationalization—the group goes to

5. Feeling invulnerable—the group

great lengths to justify both the

believes that it must be right,

process and the product of its

decision-making, distorting reality

given the intelligence of its

where necessary in order to be

members and the information

persuasive. available to them.

3. Squelching of dissent—those
6. Feeling unanimous—members

who disagree with the group are

believe that everyone

ignored, criticized, or even

unanimously shares the opinions

ostracized. expressed by the group

Antidotes for

Groupthink:
encourage constructive criticism
be impartial
ensure that members seek input from

people outside the group.

form subgroups that meet separately to

consider alternative solutions to a single

problem
the leader takes responsibility for

preventing spurious conformity to a group

norm.
Neuroscience of

Decision Making
Deductive
Reasoning
 "If the premises are true, then the conclusion must be true"

It is the process of reasoning from one or more

Deductive general statements regarding what is known to
reach a logically certain conclusion.
Reasoning

“Cognitive psychology students are brilliant. I

PROPOSITION
It is an assertion, which may be either am Cognitive psychology student. Therefore, I
true or false. am brilliant."

PREMISES PROPOSITION EXAMPLES:

are propositions about which
arguments are made.
“Cognitive psychology students are brilliant.”
“Cognitive psychology students like peanut
butter.”
2 Types of Deductive Reasoning

Conditional Reasoning

Syllogism
 p= antecedent
q= consequent

If you are using cellphone,

then you are techy.
 "If and Then"
the reasoner must draw a conclusion based on
an if-then proposition
Conditional
Reasoning

EXAMPLES:
DEDUCTIVE VALIDITY
It is a logical soundness. “If students study hard, then they score high on
their exams.”
It states that if antecedent
condition p is met, then
consequent event q follows.
If consequent denied, p will
“If p, then q.
not follow.
 CONDITIONAL PROPOSITION

“If p, then q. p. Therefore, q.”

CONDITIONAL PROPOSITION EXAMPLE:

“If students eat peanuts, then they score high on

their exams. They eat peanuts. Therefore, they
score high on their exams.”
 "If and Then"
2 Kinds of Conditional
Proposition

1. DEDUCTIVELY VALID MODUS PONENS EXAMPLE:

INFERENCES “If you are a husband, then you are married.
Harrison is a husband.
MODUS PONENS
Therefore, he is married.”
the reasoner affirms the
antecedent (p)
MODUS TOLENS
MODUS TOLENS
“If you are a husband, then you are married.
which the reasoner denies the Harrison is not married.
consequent (q).
Therefore, he is not a husband.”
 WASON SELECTION TASK

IF A CARD HAS AN EVEN NUMBER ON ONE

SIDE, THEN IT HAS THE COLOUR RED ON
THE OTHER SIDE.
 "If and Then"
2 Kinds of Conditional
Proposition
2. DEDUCTIVE
FALLACIES
DENYING THE ANTECEDENT:
DENYING THE ANTECEDENT If you are a human, then you have two legs.
If p, then q. You are not a human.
not p. Therefore, you do not have a two legs.
Therefore, not q.
AFFIRMING THE AFFIRMING THE CONSEQUENT:
CONSEQUENT
“If you are a bird, then you have wings.
If p, then q. Flies have wings.
q. Therefore, flies are a bird.
Therefore, p.
 "2 Premises and Conclusion"

are deductive arguments that involve drawing

conclusions from two premises.
Syllogism
CATEGORICAL SYLLOGISM EXAMPLE:

CATEGORICAL SYLLOGISM
the premises state something
about the category memberships
of the terms.
Each term represents all, none, or
some of the members of a
particular class or category.
 4 Types of Premises

TYPE OF FORM OF PREMISE

DEFINITION

EXAMPLES

PREMISE STATEMENT

THE PREMISE POSITIVELY

UNIVERSAL (AFFIRMATIVELY) STATES THAT
ALL MEN ARE

ALL A ARE

B ALL MEMBERS OF
THE FIRST CLASS

AFFIRMITIVE (UNIVERSAL) ARE MEMBERS OF THE MALES.

SECOND CLASS.

THE PREMISE STATES THAT NONE

UNIVERSAL OF THE MEMBERS OF THE FIRST ALL MEN ARE

ALL A ARE
NOT B

CLASS ARE MEMBERS OF THE

NEGATIVE SECOND CLASS. NOT FEMALES.

THE PREMISE STATES THAT ONLY

PARTICULAR SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SOME FEMALES

SOME A ARE

FIRST CLASS ARE MEMBERS OF THE

AFFIRMATIVE SECOND CLASS

ARE WOMEN.

THE PREMISE STATES THAT SOME SOME FEMALES

PARTICULAR MEMBERS OF THE FIRST CLASS ARE

SOME A ARE

NOT B

NOT MEMBERS OF THE SECOND ARE

NOT
NEGATIVE CLASS.
WOMEN.
 HEURISTICS IN DEDUCTIVE
AIDS AND OBSTACLES REASONING

CONFIRMATION BIAS
seek confirmation rather than
disconfirmation of what we already
believe.
OVEREXTENSIONS
overextend the use of strategies that
work in some syllogisms to syllogisms in
which the strategies fail us
FORECLOSURE EFFECTS
fail to consider all the possibilities
before reaching a conclusion

PREMISE-PHRASING EFFECT
leap to a conclusion without
HOW TO ENHANCE DEDUCTIVE
adequately reflecting on the
REASONING? deductive validity of the syllogism.
Inductive
Reasoning
 Inductive
Reasoning

HOLYOAK & NIS-BETT, 1998)

It is the process of reasoning from
Inductive reasoning forms specific facts or observations to reach a
the basis of the empirical likely conclusion that may explain the
facts.
method.
Types of Inductive Reasoning
 Causal
Inferences
How people make judgments
about whether something
causes something else. (Cheng,
1997, 1999; Spellman, 1997)
JOHN STUART MILL'S "CANONS" OF
CAUSALITY
An effect always occurs after its
cause occurs
An effect never occurs unless its
cause occurs
There is no other event that would
cause the "cause" to occur
Categorical
Inferences

ON WHAT BASIS DO PEOPLE DRAW

INFERENCES?

They use both information from sensory

experiences and previously inferred
information.
 Analogical
Reasoning

Example: Rose: Flower::

Hammer:
a. car Ability to recognize relationships
b. tool among and apply similarities in
c. computer relationship to a wide array of
d. instrument phenomena.
Development of Inductive Reasoning

Inductive reasoning skills develop with age and develop to

different degrees in different subjects.
An Alternative
View of
Reasoning.
 contends that two
Dual-process complementary systems of
reasoning can be distinguished
Theory Associative system
Rule-based system
 Associative System
Based on the observation of
patterns and general
tendencies
It is a very loose system by
which observation leads to a
hasty conclusion that is tested
against future observations until
a level of certainty is reached
in a given assumption.
 Rule-based
System

Suggests more deliberate procedures for reaching

conclusions: rather than relying on casual observation,
much deliberation is done to reason the theoretical
nature of things and relationship among them, to derive
rules in advance of experience.
Belief-bias
effect
occurs when we agree
more with syllogisms
that affirm our beliefs,
whether or not these
sylllogisms are logically
valid
 False-consensus
effect

People believe that their

own behavior and
judgements are more
common and more
appropriate than those of
other people
Neuroscience of Reasoning

The process of reasoning involves

the prefrontal cortex
 Question 1: Differentiate
Availability and representativeness
Heuristics :P
 Question 2: Differentiate
Deductive Reasoning and Inductive
Reasoning
Thank you for listening!