PREPARED BY KASHIF HUSSEIN

CONCEPT OF FRAGILE STATE, FAILED STATE AND HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION

INTRODUCTION:
 Fragile state are also known as weak states.
 Fragile state failed to fulfil key needs of their citizens.
 The short coming of fragile states are termed as gaps between states and society.

There are three gaps:

1. Security gap:
It means that state does not provide adequate protection to its citizens.
2. Capacity gap:
In which state does not provide adequate services.
3. Legitimacy gap:
 The authority of state is not fully accepted.
NOTE: This differs from failed state whose government totally lack legitimacy.
 A fragile state is vulnerable to internal and external shocks and domestic and international conflicts.
 The fragility of the state can also be defined as state's growing inability to maintain a monopoly on force
in its declared territory.

WORLD BANK:

Consider a country to be fragile if:

 A state eligible of assistance from international development association (IDA).

 Has had a UN Peace keeping mission last three year.
 Has gained governance score less than 2.3

INTRODUCTION:

 Phenomenon of fragility can be observed in both developed and under developing states.
 State fragility index is released every year in which states are ranked for their fragility on the basis of certain
integrators.
 Every state in its political history at certain point has experienced elements of fragility but because of few
elements state cannot be termed as fragile, For example: USA at time of Donald trump's government faced lack
of cohesion in society.
 No state wishes to be fragile state.

INDICATORS OF FRAGALITY:

1) Prolonged conflict\unresolved conflict:

If a state in a condition of constant conflict on a certain issues that can have negative impacts on social, economic and
political conditions of state.

How it can be effected:

* Prolonged conflicts exhaust the resources of state.

* Pakistan-India have arm race, nuclear program, large stand armies to manage their conflict over Kashmir.
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 State resources exhaust.

 Political instability.
 Low development budget

For example: Kashmir issue.

a) Economic instability:
A state have to allocate major chunks of its economy to manage conflicts
b) Social instability:
A prolonged conflict also generates a constant elements of insecurity in society (psychological impacts)
C) Political instability:
The conflict can drag the regional powers who have to secure their stalks in the region.
For example:
Big power concerned about the transformation of Kashmir conflicts into nuclear conflict, Hence US has occasionally
intervened to stop the two parties from going into the war most notably at the time of war on terror.

2) UNEVENDEVELOPMENT:

 One region highly developed and other is underdeveloped this generates gap between state and society. If such
gap exist in state it can give rise to political, economic and social grievance in society.
 Concentration of population take palace in urban area (Urbanization and migration)

In the phenomena of uneven development we have some Sub indicators.

a) Group grievances:

 In the public would increase grievance can lead people to think different lines which can polarize the society.
For eg: grievance of the people of East-Pakistan lead to disintegration of Pakistan.
 If grievance are not addressed the keep on accelerating and could transfer into crisis.

b) Dimension of uneven development:

Uneven development can take place with different dimensions.

1. Industrialization and urbanization.

2. Availability of resources.
3. Providing basic necessities to people.
4. Security.

A state may failed if experiences prolonged uneven development.

1. ECONOMIC INEQUALITY:

If there is a huge gap in society btw the rich and the poor.
It can also be checked by observing the discrimination in the economic system of a society. And how state is legally
managing the economic gaps.

2. ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY:

We have to observe does people have the economic opportunities and does state or the private sector is providing any
opportunities to the people. Also we have to see that are people capable to materialize the economic opportunities, bcz
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if state has opportunities for the people but people are not professionally capable enough to take those opportunities
than those opportunities would be useless.

3. GAP BETWEEN URBAN RURAL DIVIDE:

If there is gap btw urban and rural setup then there would be possibility of uneven development.

4. DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURES/ POPULATION PRESSURE:

 How the population is a burden on the state with respect to its resources. If there is huge gap between availability
of the resources and the population growth that affects the stability of a state.
 According to Matheus theory “the resources increase arithmetically and population increases geometrically”
 We can see that in some states population growth rate is negative and in some states it’s highly positive.
 We can see that with respect to age difference the age gap is different. Somewhere youth is more than the old in
others it’s vice versa.
 Both old and youth bulge have their own drawbacks.

5. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION:

 We have to see if population distribution is reasonable or not what areas are scarce and what are dense in
population. For example: Baluchistan had less population than other provinces of Pakistan.
 More densely populated area have more civic, political, social and economic problems.
 Population growth rate also affects the public health states have different mortality and fertility rates and they
have to managed under better healthcare services.

6. NATURAL DISASTERS, NUTRITION AND FOOD SECURITY CAN AFFECT THE SEVERITY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC
PRESSURES.

NATURAL DISASTERS: are they recurring or annually take place.

How much the state has the capacity to deal with all the demographic pressures?

7. HUMAN FLIGHT AND BRAIN DRAIN:

 When a good number of talented and professionally skilled citizens of a state move to other states for better
opportunities.
 The phenomena of brain drain has its implications on multiple sectors of a state.
 Although overseas citizens of a state send remittances to their state but this resource is not long lasting.
 State becomes dependent on the host state.
 When Iraq had invaded Kuwait lot of Pakistanis had lost their jobs.
 Remittances are a profited but they are dependent on other factors.

CONSEQUENCES:
 The prospects of innovation, inventions, intellectual grooming, and social mobility becomes weaker over the
period of time.
 The state remains with mediocre sort of intellectual and professional mentors. Hence in the result incompetency
breads in the society. As a result the loss of such human resource state declines towards fragility.
 Middle class is the backbone of a state.
 A state's strength also rests on the performance of the middle class of a society.
 Mostly professions are adopted by the middle class of the society.
 Middle class is politically aware and economy of state is also dependent on the middle class of a society. If middle
class shrinks in a state its direct impact comes on the state and because of human flight and brain drain middle
class shrinks.
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8. SECURITY APPARATUS:

 The condition of the security of a state, how secure people are or they feel in a state.
 If state experiences frequent events of terrorism, extremis and civil war and state is unable to control or counter
them it may be considered as a fragile state.
 If private militias or terror groups operate in a state easily and the security forces are unable to eliminate them
that is a fragile state because that means state doesn’t have the monopoly over power.
 If certain groups operate freely in a state on the behalf of their power and armed forces of the state are restricted
to go in those areas that is a question to the sovereignty of a state and it paves the way for other states to
intervene in that state to deal those groups.

9. AVALAIBILITY OF ARMS:

Annually deaths of civilians are recorded more by small arms than the heavy weapons and easy availability of small arms
can also make the state vulnerable. A strong state have monopoly over the coercion to maintain law and order. Groups
or militia or mercenaries don’t have the legitimacy to use power. If any group challenges the authority of the state by
claiming to take care of their own security than internal sovereignty of the state is missing. State loses its legitimacy of
providing security to its citizens than state goes into fragility and failure eventually.

10. FACTIONALIZED ELITE:

 Elites in any society are those groups who hold the power apparatus, i.e. economic, politics, so if that group is
factionalized from the other groups of the society than state could go to fragility by divisions.
 If the power groups are fragmented in the society on the basis of religious, linguistic or ethnic backgrounds etc.
such that the some groups gain the opportunities while rest are sidelined. Or for example one tribe has the power
and others are sidelined.
 In some states fictionalization is constitutional legitimate.

In such fictionalization the elite generally performs two key actions.

1. To maintain monopoly over the power.

2. Do not let others to join them.

For these two objectives the use tools such as, dividing the society on different lines as, religious, nationalistic etc. They
promote xenophobic mentality. They take nationalism to the level chauvinism.

Sub indicators of factionalized elite:

a) Legitimacy: the effects of factionalized on the fragility of a state vary with respect to its legitimacy.
Its legitimacy depends on two factors, public support and its electoral process.

We have to see if people support that leadership or not and is there any electoral process for making of the government
and how free and fair that process is.

b) Concentration of resources: fragility can also very in a factionalized state with respect to the concentration of power
and economic opportunities. That whether the wealth and power is being concentrated among factionalized elite or is it
being distributed. In how many classes the society is divided on the basis of their economic and political possessions most
importantly the role of middle class. If the middle class is strong the fragility of the state would be low.
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c) Cultural divisions: How much cultural division is present in the society and the factionalized elite and in the society?
The impact of those cultural divisions on in the factionalized society can also very and have different fragility impacts.
TOLERANCE: if there are any cultural divisions in society than how much tolerant people are.

d) LAWS: the management of matters on the basis of rules and regulations can also affect the fragility of the state in a
factionalized society. The state could be less fragile if enough legislation and implementation of law and order is present
in the state.

11. GROUP GRIEVANCES:

Most of the states and societies are multicultural and multilingual. So in fragile state different groups have different
grievances related to their cultural, economic and political rights and they face discrimination. These grievances can be
new and can also take place on historical patterns that if a group is targeted specifically and throughout history of that
state. If those grievances are on a historical pattern and persecution has been carried out historically than those
grievances keep on accumulating and eventually revolts take place.

Examples: Pakistan, Yugoslavia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India.

DISCRIMINATORY LAWS: in some cases state declares its inclination to some specific citizens.
According to the constitution of SRILANKA BUDHIST SUNALIS are first grade citizens.
In Malaysia the status of a MALAYA MUSLIM is higher than the others.

12. EXTERNAL INTERVENTION:

 Generally external intervention is considered as when a state interfere forcefully in the internal affairs of any
other state if that state is weak in political and security terms.
 This sort of intervention is condemned in international law and UN does not give its approval. It is considered
unethical approach also.
 But there are cases where interventions take place with approvals by different international instruments and are
not considered unethical. I.e.; humanitarian intervention, when any state faces any serious disasters example
natural disaster, civil war, genocide.

If a neighboring state intervenes it is acceptable only on two accounts

 To save the humanity

 To prevent the spillover effect of any crisis.

So both cases of intervention the element of politics cannot be eliminated.

Two types of interventions in the context of politics and security.

1. FORCED INTERVENTION.
2. HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION.

a) ECONOMIC INTERVENTION:

This is also kind of external intervention in which states and international Organizations, MNCS.

b) INTERVENTION BY MULTINATIONAL CORPORATION:

 MNCS can breach the state sovereignty if they are powerful than the state and state could turn into fragility.
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 MNCs sometimes sign agreements on their terms against the interest of the state. A powerful state can control
and deal with MNCS according to its interests.

 States also intervene economically in the name of economic assistance and aid.
 Prolonged dependency is can give rise to the prolonged fragility.

c) INTERVENTION BY IOS:

 If an International organization intervenes on humanitarian or political grounds in state.

 If the state is fragile that becomes easy i.e.; peacekeeping forces of UN this shows the fragility of a state.
 In economic aspect of a state has prolonged dependency in terms of aid on IOS like UN than that state is facing
fragility including Somalia, Ethiopia, and Rwanda.

13. REFUGEES AND IDPS:

Refugees: With the influx of refugees the already existing indicators of fragility can further get sharpen. Population would
increase, demographic pressures, more challenges in the climatic changes. The issue of refugees is also most of the time
not just a humanitarian but political also, states faces different political challenges at national and international level in
the refugee crisis.
Examples: Europe is divided over refugee issues and Turkey and Pakistan use refugees as political tools.

IDPS: This takes place within a state, could be because of natural disaster, IDPS and refugees can have spillover effect.
They can affect the neighboring states.
Example: In Pakistan Sudden arrival of IDPS also generates the issue of social cohesion.
If the IDPS are displaced forcefully they have different issues. So if a state has frequent IDPS it can turn into fragile.

14. POVERTY:

 United Nations: If a person earns less than 2.5 dollars a day.

 Those who earn more than 3 dollars a day can be considered above poverty line.
 It is the state which creates conducive environment to reduce poverty .State can face fragility because of poverty
which means if it fails to provide its citizens the economic opportunities and basic necessities.

 1 Constant poverty.
 2 Relative poverty.

Excessive poverty increases gap between state and society. People become alienated from the state which is disastrous.

15. STATE LEGITIMACY:

State society relationship: the bond of trust between state and society when people trust state and its institutions the
state gains legitimacy through this bond.

In order to check the legitimacy of a state we have to check some elements in a state.

Armed insurgency: When a group of people belonging to some specific religious, linguistic, sectarian identity in a state
has grievances. Whether in context of political participation, economic inequality, Cultural grievances (if the cultural
identity or cultural elements of society are not preserved or not given importance in comparison with other groups).
If all such type of grievances persist they can generate political disobedience in shape of insurgencies. If the insurgencies
become prolonged that would be an indicator of mistrust between the people and state and her institutions.
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Electoral process: If free and fair elections are being held that is also one indicator that the state legitimacy us missing in
the citizens.
Elements of transparency and accountability. If there is no accountability of injustices for those who depend on the help
of the state then state would lose the trust of the people and on its institutions.
Human rights: The matter of human rights can become an element of fragility and stability for a state.
We can check the fragility of a state by observing the state basic human rights whether the violation is taking place or
not. States resist any intervention by foreign actors in the name of human rights but a state could only resist if it is
relatively powerful weaker states have to accept the norms of human rights devised by the international community.
Civil society: If the concept and practice of civil society is vibrant in society that can be stable and less fragile because of
this element. The concept of civil society is western and is also related to human rights so some states also resist it.
Legal system: it is also related to the concept of human rights. If the legal system of society is vibrant and strong , if there
is no discrimination in the legal framework of the state and criminals are being punished than that would be a stable
state in the context of fragility.

NOTE: The chances of a state to become a failed state depend on the intensity of these above mentioned elements