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24 March 2023

Market snapshot Today’s top research idea


Equities - India Close Chg .% CYTD.%
Eicher Motors: Expanding Hunter beyond tier-1/2 cities
Sensex 57,925 -0.5 -4.8
Rollout of Hunter/Super Meteor underway in export markets
Nifty-50 17,077 -0.4 -5.7
Nifty-M 100 29,917 -0.4 -5.1
 We met with the management of Eicher Motors (EIM) to get an update on the
Equities-Global Close Chg .% CYTD.%
Royal Enfield (RE) business. Management sees stable demand in the domestic
S&P 500 3,949 0.3 2.8
market and expects the next phase of growth to come from the ramp-up of
Nasdaq 11,787 1.0 12.6
Hunter in tier-3 and smaller cities.
FTSE 100 7,500 -0.9 0.6
 While EIM is witnessing a seasonal decline in export markets, it expects
DAX 15,210 0.0 9.2
growth to be driven by the ramp-up in the portfolio and its reach in
Hang Seng 6,836 3.0 2.0
international markets. Although RE is currently present in 64 countries, a large
Nikkei 225 27,420 -0.2 5.1
part of volumes come from only 15 countries, where it is in an early phase of
Commodities Close Chg .% CYTD.%
ramp-up. Beyond these 15 countries, RE is working to activate the markets
Brent (US$/Bbl) 75 -0.7 -12.2
and get structures right.
Gold ($/OZ) 1,993 1.2 9.3
 EIM will continue to launch new products to address demand in international
Cu (US$/MT) 9,033 1.5 8.0
markets and to give upgrade options to RE owners in India.
Almn (US$/MT) 2,279 1.9 -3.0
 Although the focus remains on profit growth over profitability, we believe
Currency Close Chg .% CYTD.%
there are levers for margin improvement in the near term.
USD/INR 82.3 -0.5 -0.6
USD/EUR 1.1 -0.2 1.2
USD/JPY 130.9 -0.4 -0.2
YIELD (%) Close 1MChg CYTD chg
10 Yrs G-Sec 7.3 -0.01 0.0
Research covered
10 Yrs AAA Corp 7.8 -0.01 0.1
Cos/Sector Key Highlights
Flows (USD b) 23-Mar MTD CYTD
Eicher Motors Expanding Hunter beyond tier-1/2 cities
FIIs -0.12 1.27 -2.9
DIIs 0.20 0.20 9.2 Equitas Small Finance Bank Robust profitability aided by superior business growth
Volumes (INRb) 23-Mar MTD* YTD* Accenture’s strong outsourcing performance to help ease
Technology
Cash 451 527 528 macro fear
F&O 4,24,773 2,42,925 2,15,710 Consumer Crude decline is the highlight of the month
Note: Flows, MTD includes provisional numbers.
*Average

Chart of the Day: Equitas Small Finance Bank (Robust profitability aided by superior business growth)
We estimates loans to grow at healthy 26% CAGR over F23-25 AUM growth has been healthy and gaining pace over the past
after reporting a strong 28% growth in FY23 few quarters

Loans (INRb) Growth YoY (%) AUM (INR b) YoY Growth (%)
35 33 37
50 31
27 26 27
35 22 20
19 17 15
28 27 26 13 13 15
23
18
15
249
217
228
154
123
133
146

156
167
174
179
178
190
197
206
116

168

248

315

397
137

FY22 194
77

4QFY20
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20

1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY23E

FY24E

FY25E

Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company

Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)


Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
In the news today

Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link

1 2
Accenture to lay off 19,000 Mercedes-Benz plans to launch 4 EVs in 8-12 months in India
people, 40% of its 7.38 lakh The company expects 25 per cent of its total sales in India to come from
employees are in India electric vehicles in India by 2027. "We are very happy with the
Accenture said currency development of our EVs (electric vehicles) here in the Indian market with
headwinds and wage inflation had (models such as) the EQS and the EQB. We'll have four more vehicles
a direct impact on its decision to coming in," Luehrs told reporters here in an interaction.
lay off people.

3 4
Shriram Life Insurance plans Udaan plans to expand FMCG
to maximize rural reach 6-fold to 10,000 small
penetration; hopes to grow towns, villages 5
AUM to Rs 13,000 cr by FY25 Riding on the opportunity in the
As of December 2022, the cold beverages segment in rural Reliance Jio launches 3GB per
Chennai-based company's assets areas, B2B e-commerce unicorn day cricket plans ahead of IPL
under management (AUM) stood Udaan is planning to expand FMCG 2023
at Rs 8,573 crore, down from Rs vertical reach six-fold to around Priced at Rs. 219, Rs. 399, and Rs.
8,900 crore a year ago and hopes 10,000 small towns and villages 999, the three special cricket
to close the current fiscal with Rs plans will have validities of 14
9,000 crore AUM, up from Rs days, 28 days and 84 days
7,683 in March 2022. respectively

6 7
After cola, Reliance begins price Vedanta board to meet next
war in home and personal care week to consider fifth interim
space dividend for FY23
sparking a price war in the Vedanta Resources had said it
carbonated beverages market had pre-paid all of its debt that
through Campa Cola, Reliance was due for repayment till March
2023, deleveraging by USD 2
Consumer Products has taken
billion in the past 11 months
the pricing battle to the other
segments in the fast-moving
consumer goods market.

24 March 2023 2
23 March 2023
Sector: Automobiles

Eicher Motors
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
57,925 17,077
CMP: INR2,924 TP: INR3,625 (+24%) Buy
Expanding Hunter beyond tier-1/2 cities
Rollout of Hunter/Super Meteor underway in export markets
Bloomberg EIM IN
Equity Shares (m) We met with the management of Eicher Motors (EIM) to get an update on the Royal
273
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) Enfield (RE) business. Management sees stable demand in the domestic market and
799.7 / 9.7
52-Week Range (INR) 3886 / 2311
expects the next phase of growth to come from the ramp-up of Hunter in tier-3 and
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -7/-19/23
smaller cities. While EIM is witnessing a seasonal decline in export markets, it expects
12M Avg Val (INR M) 2338
Free float (%) growth to be driven by the ramp-up in the portfolio and its reach in international
50.8
markets. EIM will continue to launch new products to address demand in
Financials & Valuations (INR b) international markets and to give upgrade options to RE owners in India. Although the
Y/E MARCH FY23E FY24E FY25E focus remains on profit growth over profitability, we believe there are levers for
Sales 144.6 167.3 194.8 margin improvement in the near term.
EBITDA 34.2 41.2 49.7
 Domestic demand stable for RE: Demand remains healthy for RE in the
Adj. PAT 28.0 36.8 46.6
Adj EPS (INR) 102.5 134.7 170.4 domestic market, with no impact of macro headwinds or IT sector weakness
EPS Gr (%) 67.1 31.4 26.5 (given relatively high salience). RE continues to gain market share in the
BV/Sh (INR) 539 648 794
Ratios
150cc and above motorcycle segment (FY23YTD at 31.8% v/s FY22 at 28.7%
RoE (%) 20.3 22.3 23.1 vs FY19 at 25%). If the interest rate stabilizes, it could support demand for
RoCE (%) 20.3 22.3 23.1 RE.
Payout (%) 24.4 18.6 14.7
 Hunter to expand in tier-3 and smaller cities: Demand for Hunter has
Valuations
P/E (x) 28.5 21.7 17.2 stabilized at 15k-17k per month. However, demand is skewed toward tier-1
P/BV (x) 5.4 4.5 3.7 & 2 cities. EIM has just started with market activation in tier-3 and smaller
Div. Yield (%) 0.9 0.9 0.9
FCF Yield (%) 3.7 3.2 4.1
cities, as there is still an order backlog from tier-1 & 2 cities. Hence, it
expects the next phase of growth for Hunter to come from tier-3 and
Shareholding pattern (%) smaller markets. Demand remains skewed toward premium variants.
As On Dec-22 Sep-22 Dec-21  RE sees stable demand for retail exports: As per the management, most of
Promoter 49.2 49.2 49.2 the markets are doing fine and the moderation witnessed in export volume
DII 10.1 10.1 9.8 is due to seasonality as 2/3rd of volumes come from the markets with
FII 29.9 30.3 29.5 heavy winters. Although RE is currently present in 64 countries, a large part
Others 10.9 10.5 11.5
of volumes come from only 15 countries, where it is in an early phase of
FII Includes depository receipts
ramp-up. Beyond these 15 countries, RE is working to activate the markets
Stock Performance (1-year) and get structures right. Hunter is launched in APAC but awaits a roll-out in
Eicher Motors other markets. Similarly, Super Meteor will be launched in international
Nifty - Rebased markets in 4QFY23.
4,000
 New product pipeline remains strong: EIM will continue to launch new
3,500
products, with two new models estimated to be launched every year. EIM
3,000 plans to leverage its 3-4 platforms to extend into adjacencies with different
2,500 genres of motorcycles. Most of the upcoming product launches will target
2,000 international markets and address potential upgrades by RE owners in
India. The share of existing RE owners in RE volumes is 7-8%.
Mar-22

Mar-23
Jul-22

Sep-22

Jan-23
Nov-22
May-22

 Consistent focus on profit growth over profitability: RE continues to focus


on growing profits rather than focusing on volume-driven margin
expansion. However, we see many leavers for EBITDA margin from the
3QFY23 base: 1) full benefits of low RM costs (just 50bp in 3Q), 2) full
benefits of price hikes in Hunter & Bullet (1.5% in Nov’22), 3) stable mix
(higher Hunter, lower exports), and 4) operating leverage.

24 March 2023 3
 Currently, profitability is also hit by the cost of developing an export market as
well as a full-scale EV organization. In the medium term, EIM expects to benefit
from an increasing share of exports, the spares/accessories/merchandize
business, and operating leverage.

Other takeaways
 Apart from tapping existing RE owners for upgrades, RE is also engaging with
them regarding services, extended warranties, road-side assistance, accessories
and merchandise. For accessories, the focus is on improving supplies and
expanding offerings.
 It expects new launches from the competition to help expand the market. Unlike
its competitors, RE is just focused on this segment which works to its advantage.
 RE is yet to pass on the cost of OBD phase-2 norms as the cost increase is
nominal.

Valuation and view


The Hunter launch has led to a recovery for RE in the India market by expanding the
addressable market and bringing in new customers, thereby increasing the market
share in the premium motorcycle segment. While EIM is witnessing a seasonal
decline in the international business, the opportunity is very large and could be an
important driver of volumes and profits for RE. We believe improving supplies, new
product launches and the ramp-up in exports will drive the next phase of growth for
RE. Besides, stable commodity prices will also support margins and drive earnings
growth. The stock trades at 21.7x/17.2x FY24E/FY25E consolidated EPS. We have a
BUY rating on the stock with a TP of INR3,625 (Mar’25E SoTP).

SoTP valuations – INR3,625 (Mar’25 based)


INR M FY24E FY25E
Royal Enfield PE (x) 20 20
PAT 32,285 40,085
Equity Value PE @ 20x 6,45,703 8,08,914
VECV (@ 54.4% Economic interest) 12 12
EBITDA 9,902 12,751
EV @ 12x EV/EBITDA 1,18,820 1,53,013
Net Debt -21,150 -29,136
Equity Value 1,39,970 1,82,148
Total Equity Value 7,85,673 9,91,063
Target Price (INR/Sh) 2,874 3,625
Upside (%) 24
Source: Company, MOFSL

24 March 2023 4
21 March 2023
Company Update | Sector: Financials

Equitas Small Finance Bank


BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
57,925 17,077
CMP: INR65 TP: INR77 (+19%) Buy
Robust profitability aided by superior business growth
Moving coverage from hold co to bank; Estimate FY25E RoA at 2.2%

 EQUITASB has been focusing on building a diversified loan book with small
business loans (SBL), vehicle finance, MFI and housing finance being the key
business segments. Loan growth has witnessed a gradual recovery at 27% vs
Bloomberg EQUITASB IN
Equity Shares (m) 1,11,0m 15% last year and we estimate 26% CAGR in loan book over FY23-25E.
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 71.9 / 0.9  The bank has progressed well in building a granular liability franchise with total
52-Week Range (INR) 78 / 38 deposits up 45% CAGR over the past five years while CASA/retail term deposits
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -4/33/21 grew 55%/54% CAGR. During 9MFY23 the bank has reported 23% growth in total
12M Avg Val (INR M) 173
deposits while CASA growth has also been healthy at 10% (CASA mix of 46%).
Free float (%) 25.5
 The bank has demonstrated a strong improvement in asset quality with X bucket
Financials & Valuation (INR b) collection efficiency improving to Pre-Covid levels and GNPA/NNPA moderating
Y/E MARCH FY23E FY24E FY25E to 3.6%/1.8% as on 3QFY23. The bank expects slippages to moderate and has
NII 25.2 32.5 40.2 guided to improve its PCR to 60% by FY25 vs ~51% at present. We thus estimate
OP 11.0 15.0 19.1
credit cost to moderate to 1.3% by FY25 vs management guidance of 1%.
NP 5.6 8.0 10.4
NIM (%) 8.8 9.0 8.9  The reverse merger with the hold co has driven ~21% increase in BV. We believe
EPS (INR) 4.7 7.2 9.4 the merger would also solely shift the focus on the fundamental performance of
BV/Sh. (INR) 46 52 59 the bank. We thus transition our coverage from Equitas Holding to Equitas Small
ABV/Sh. (INR) 43 49 57 Finance Bank.
Ratios
 We estimate EQUITASB to deliver FY25E RoA/RoE of 2.2%/16.9% and value it at
RoE (%) 12.0 14.9 16.9
RoA (%) 1.8 2.1 2.2 INR77 (1.4x Sep’24E ABV). We thus transition our coverage with Buy rating.
Valuations
P/E (X) 13.7 9.0 6.9 SBL remains a key focused segment; Estimate 26% loan CAGR over FY23-25E
P/BV (X) 1.4 1.3 1.1
EQUITASB has been focusing on building a diversified loan book with small
P/ABV (X) 1.5 1.3 1.1
business loans (SBL), vehicle finance, MFI and housing finance to be the key
Shareholding pattern (%) focused segments. Over the past five years, AUM has grown by a healthy ~26%
As On Dec-22 Sep-22 Dec-21 CAGR led by SBL which grew at 33%. Vehicle finance grew by 23% YoY while
Promoter 74.5 74.5 81.4 MFI loans grew by 13% over the similar period. Housing finance grew at robust
DII 15.4 15.4 12.8
59% albeit on a lower base. The bank believes that SBL segment offers huge
FII 4.1 4.3 0.7
Others 6.1 5.9 5.1 opportunity which will continue to grow at a healthy pace while vehicle/MFI
FII Includes depository receipts loans are witnessing a gradual recovery which will continue to drive the loan
growth. We thus estimate loans to grow at 26% CAGR over FY23-25E.
Stock’s performance (one-year)
Equitas Sma. Fin Business mix well diversified; MFI mix to remain steady at ~15-20%
Nifty - Rebased The bank has progressed well in reducing the concentration of MFI loans
78 which moderated to 18.5% of AUM in 3QFY23 vs 53.6% in FY16. The mix of
66 vehicle loans has remained broadly stale at ~25% while the mix of SBL loans
54 has increased to 37% vs 18% over the similar period. The mix of housing loans
42 too has increased and now constitutes ~10% of the AUM. Disbursements in
30
the MFI and vehicle loans have started to witness a pick up and thus the bank
expects business mix to remain broadly stable with MFI contributing ~15-20%
Jul-22

Nov-22
Sep-22
Mar-22

Jan-23
Mar-23
May-22

of the AUM. We believe that the bank has been successful in building a
diversified franchise which will enable it to report a healthy loan growth.

24 March 2023 5
Deposit franchise holding well despite competition; CASA mix healthy at 46%
The bank has progressed well in building a granular liability franchise with total
deposits up 45% CAGR over the past five years. This was led by CASA deposits which
grew at 55% over the similar period with the CASA mix improving to 46.2% vs 17.4%
in FY17. While the term deposits grew at 38% CAGR over the past five years, retail
term deposits grew at robust 54% YoY and constitutes 66% of total term deposits vs
31% in FY18. Further, the bank has indicated that ~95% of the bulk deposits are non-
callable which provides further comfort. The bank has shown significant resilience
and was among the few to post a healthy growth in CASA deposits in 3QFY23 at 19%
YoY/3.5% QoQ. The bank indicated that it will refrain from raising its SA rate and will
play the competition via TD rates.

CE remains strong; Estimate credit cost to moderate to 1.3% by FY25


The bank has demonstrated a strong improvement in asset quality with X bucket
collection efficiency improving to 99.5% for MFI, 99.6% for SBL loans and 98% for
vehicle finance. While the slippages have been elevated, recoveries and upgrades
have been strong enabling an improvement in asset quality ratios with GNPA/NNPA
at 3.6%/1.8% as on 3QFY23. The bank expects slippages to moderate and has guided
to improve its PCR to 60% by FY25 vs ~51% at present. Further, 1-90 DPD stands at
7.53% in 3QFY23 vs 10.43% in FY22 while the restructured book moderated to 2.9%
of AUM. The management expects credit cost to be ~1% on a steady state (1.5% for
FY23) and we conservatively estimate credit cost to moderate to 1.3% by FY25.

Amalgamation with holding company largely completed; BV to increase by ~21%


As per the approved scheme of amalgamation, EQUITASB pursuant to the NCLT
approval received on 12th Jan’23, set the record date at 3rd Feb’23 and approved the
allotment of shares on 8th Feb’23. As per the scheme, the shareholders of EQUITAS
have received 231 shares of bank for every 100 shares of holding. Post which
existing shares of ~934m held by holding has extinguished and the bank has allotted
~790m shares to its shareholders. Thus, the outstanding shares of bank have
moderated to ~1.11b while net worth increases by ~INR3.25b. As a result, book
value increases by ~21% and holding company has ceased to exist. We believe this
completes the impending overhang around the merger and would shift the focus on
the fundamental performance of the bank.

Valuation and view: Moving coverage to bank with Buy rating and TP of INR77
EQUITASB has been reporting a gradual improvement in operating performance
over the past few quarters with steady AUM growth, led by healthy traction across
segments while moderation in credit cost has aided earnings. As a result, the bank
reported a RoA/RoE of ~2.2%/~15% in 3QFY23. Growth in deposit too remains
healthy with CASA mix of ~46%. On the asset quality front, collection efficiency has
improved to Pre-Covid levels while gradual moderation in 1-90DPD and restructured
book augurs well for incremental asset quality. The bank has completed the
amalgamation scheme and we believe the merger would solely shift the focus on
the fundamental performance of the bank. We estimate EQUITASB to deliver FY25E
RoA/RoE of 2.2%/16.9% and value it at INR77 (1.4x Sep’24E ABV). We thus
transition our coverage from Equitas Holding to Equitas Small Finance Bank with a
Buy rating.

24 March 2023 6
Sector Update | 24 March 2023

Technology
Accenture’s strong outsourcing performance to help ease macro fear
Muted commentary on workforce growth a sore spot
Accenture (ACN), one of the key peers of IT services companies, reported 9% YoY constant
currency (CC) revenue growth in 2QFY23, near the top end of its guided range of 6-10% in
ACN delivers a decent 2QFY23 CC. It reported record deal bookings in 2Q (up 17% YoY CC), mainly led by Outsourcing at
USD11.4b (1.5x book-to-bill, up 31% YoY). Despite the strong order booking, ACN trimmed
the upper-end of its FY23 revenue growth guidance by 100bp to 8-10% (from 8-11%),
28%
27%
27%

partially due to a 50bp lower contribution from acquisitions. This was on account of
22%
21%

weaker demand for its Consulting business (52% of revenues), partially offset by a strong
growth outlook in its Outsourcing business, which we see as positive for its Indian IT
16%

15%

services peers. However, the company’s plan to trim its workforce by 19,000 (2.5% of total
9%

workforce) and not to add workforce in 2Q and 3Q raise concerns.


2%
5%
4QFY20 -1%

Earnings snapshot – FY23 guidance cut despite record order inflow


3QFY22
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22

4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23

 Strong revenue performance and record bookings: Revenue stood at USD15.8b


(up 9.0% in CC/5.1% in USD YoY) in 2QFY23, 100bp below the upper end of its
Source: Company, MOFSL guided range (6-10% YoY CC) and 170bp ahead of consensus. ACN reported
record-high deal bookings at USD22.1b (book-to-bill ratio of 1.4x), up 17% YoY in
Record-high Bookings 2QFY23 CC and 13% in USD.
(USD b)  Record-high outsourcing bookings: ACN reported record-high bookings for
Outsourcing at USD11.4b, up 41% QoQ/31% YoY, which was partly driven by the
seasonal strength. Consulting bookings were up 32% QoQ/down 2% YoY.
22.1

 FY23 revenue guidance trimmed: ACN expects 3QFY23 revenue growth at 3-7%
19.6

18.4
17.0
16.8

YoY and FY23 revenue growth at 8-10% in CC v/s 8-11% earlier.


16.2
16.0
15.4
15.0
14.0

 Good operating margin performance: Adjusted EBIT margin rose 10bp YoY to
12.9

13.8%. Management maintained its FY23 margin guidance at 15.3-15.5% (up


10bp to 30bp YoY). However, ACN is expected to take a hit of USD800m in FY23
and USD700m in FY24 on account of business optimization costs, translating to a
2QFY22
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22

3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23

150bp YoY impact on FY23 margin.


 Attrition eased further: ACN reported another 100bp QoQ improvement in
Source: Company, MOFSL attrition to 12% from 13% in 1QFY23. However, the headcount addition was flat.

Deal pipeline remains healthy; headcount reduction is a concern


 Strong demand environment: The secular demand remains strong for Cloud,
Data, AI and Securities. Large transformation deals are being pursued actively
across its client base, with 35+ new signings in USD100m+ deals. However, small
size deals have taken a pause and are taking more time than usual to support
revenue growth, especially in the consulting business (North America).
 Nature of deals: The client focus has shifted to cost-takeout and efficiency-
driven deals that have a low payback period with high immediate returns.
 Trimming headcount: The company is purposefully trimming its headcount to
mitigate (given the utilization is stabilized at 91%) the compounding inflationary
impact and to streamline its operations to have better control on margins.

24 March 2023 7
Key highlights from the management commentary
 Few industries like Hi-Tech and Retail are drawing more attention and are quite
dominating in cost optimization, while the industries like Insurance and Energy
are putting equal focus on cost + growth initiatives.
 The demand environment remains similar to last quarter and clients remain
focused on compressed transformation initiatives. Cloud and Security are
growing in strong double digits and seeing strong demand.
 It is investing in business optimization and expects to incur USD800m/USD700m
cost in FY23/FY24, along with USD300m to consolidate office spaces (totaling to
USD1.5b). This will have a 150bp impact on margins.
 The benefits of the optimization are expected to flow in FY24 and beyond. It is
done to tackle the structural issue of compounding wages and will affect 19,000
employees. Half of the 19,000 employees are expected to depart in FY23.

ACN’s record bookings and headcount cuts - Mixed impact for Indian IT
ACN delivered record-high bookings during the quarter. At the same time, it has
announced headcount cuts and indicated muted hiring for 3QFY23, which is
negative. The management commentary indicates consistent demand momentum
despite weak macro. We maintain our positive stance on the sector as we expect
good demand over the medium term and a strong margin recovery. TCS, HCLT, and
INFO remain our preferred picks in the Tier I IT space.

Quarterly performance
Y/E August FY22 FY23 FY21 FY22
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Revenue (USD b) 15.0 15.0 16.2 15.4 15.7 15.8 50.5 61.6
QoQ (%) 11.5 0.5 7.4 -4.5 2.1 0.4
YoY (%) 27.2 24.5 21.8 14.9 5.2 5.1 14.0 21.9
GPM (%) 32.9 30.1 32.9 32.1 32.9 30.6 32.4 32.0
SGA (%) 9.7 9.4 10.3 10.2 9.8 9.9 10.5 9.9
EBIT (USD m) 2,434 2,062 2,603 2,268 2,593 1,945 7,622 9,367
EBIT margin (%) 16.3 13.7 16.1 14.7 16.5 12.3 15.1 15.2
Other income -28 -11 -108 -23 9 2 140 -171
PBT (USD m) 2,406 2,050 2,495 2,245 2,602 1,947 7,761 9,196
ETR (%) 24.4 19.2 27.1 24.6 23.3 20.4 22.8 24.0
Adj. PAT (USD m) 1,791 1,635 1,786 1,665 1,965 1,524 5,907 6,877
Exceptional items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reported PAT (USD m) 1,791 1,635 1,786 1,665 1,965 1,524 5,907 6,877
QoQ (%) 26.5 -8.7 9.2 -6.8 18.0 -22.5
YoY (%) 19.4 13.5 15.3 17.6 9.7 -6.8 15.5 16.7
EPS (INR) 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.1 2.4 9.1 10.7
Source: MOFSL, Company

24 March 2023 8
Sector Update | 23 March 2023

Consumer
Brent Crude index (USD/bbl) Crude decline is the highlight of the month
We have analyzed price movements of key commodities in 4QFY23 so far and
identified companies from our coverage universe that could benefit or be impaired
by such price movements.
102  The crude oil price has been easing for the last three quarters after being on
the boil since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is at the lowest level
74 since the beginning of CY22, declining the most in Mar’23 (down 31.5% YoY).
However, it historically remains at elevated levels. The crude oil price is
currently hovering at USD72-75/bbl, down 45% from its all-time high of
Mar-22

Mar-23
Jul-22

Sep-22

Jan-23
Nov-22
May-22

USD134/bbl.
 Palm oil prices stable after sharp correction: Palm oil is a key raw material for
soap companies and, to some extent, food players. Both Malaysian palm oil and
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate (PFAD) remained flat QoQ after a sharp correction
Mentha Oil prices (INR/kg) recently from all-time high levels (down 49% and 61% respectively). The
Malaysian palm oil price has inched up 5.9% MoM in Mar’23 to MYR4,083/MT,
while the PFAD price has remained flat MoM at USD707/MT.
1,250
 With the sharp correction in few key commodities such as crude oil and palm oil,
we expect companies to pass on the benefits to consumers; some of them have
1,223
already started to do so. On the other hand, prices of milk, wheat, barley, glass,
and maize continue to rise, which could lead to price hikes or grammage
reductions by affected companies. However, the current demand environment
could constraint their ability to take price hikes. We have nevertheless observed
Mar-22

Mar-23
Jul-22

Jan-23
Sep-22
May-22

Nov-22

some price increases in health food drinks in 4QFY23.


 The downward momentum in crude and crude derivatives and palm oil prices
augurs well for PIDI, GCPL, HUVR and paint companies.
 Agri commodities largely stable: Tea prices fell 17.3% QoQ but remained flat
YoY. Maize and wheat prices softened toward the quarter end. Maize prices fell
Palm Fatty Acid prices (USD/MT)
8.1% QoQ (up 26.8% YoY). Wheat prices were flat QoQ and up 20.7% YoY.
Barley prices declined 11.7% QoQ but increased 10.0% YoY; however, they are
still up 56.5% from Jan’21 levels (flat v/s Jan’22 level). Sugar prices remained flat
QoQ and YoY.
707  Non-agri commodities: Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) prices have corrected
644
sharply from its recent highs, down 59% YoY. They remained flat QoQ and fell
49% YoY. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) prices have also fallen, but they are only
down 13% from all-time high levels. TiO2 prices in fact increased 4.2% QoQ and
fell 10% YoY. Liquid Paraffin prices (until Jan’22) rose 20.9% YoY while remained
Mar-23
Sep-22

Feb-23
Oct-22

Dec-22

Jan-23
Nov-22

flat QoQ. Domestic gold prices rose 13.6% YoY/8.6% QoQ.


 The entire commodity cost basket, on an average, showed signs of moderation
(down 5.2% YoY/2.3% QoQ). The Agri basket was flat YoY but fell 4.5% QoQ.
The non-Agri basket declined by 10.9% YoY and was flat QoQ.
 Commentary from a few companies indicated some green shoots in rural
demand. A full-fledged recovery will depend on a normal monsoon in 2023;
however, initial reports are not encouraging amid signs of the likely El Nino
effect (our mid-cap team has analyzed the impact of past El Nino events). Taking
cognizance of this, along with a moderation in commodity prices, companies
may look to roll back the price hikes and launch various schemes to revive
demand.

24 March 2023 9
 We reiterate ITC as our preferred pick, given its better earnings visibility over
the next one year. Its Other FMCG business will also benefit from the expected
reduction in wheat costs after Rabi harvest. GCPL, a major beneficiary of the
recent palm oil cost reduction, is our second preferred pick among Staples.

Impact on our preferred picks


 GCPL: Palm oil prices have corrected sharply in the past few months, which
augurs well for GCPL. This will result in a strong recovery in gross margin and
healthy growth in EBITDA margin from 4QFY23, translating to over 25% YoY
EBITDA growth for the next few quarters even though the management intends
to use part of the windfall gains on lower commodity costs to increase ad
spends to boost medium-term growth.
 HUVR: Palm oil is also a key input for HUVR and the sharp correction in palm oil
prices will support HUVR’s margin. In addition, tea leaf prices corrected by
17.3% QoQ (flat YoY). Packaging costs should also see some relief as HDPE prices
has been flat QoQ and could decline with a lag if crude prices stay at the level
seen in recent weeks. Hence, we believe HUVR should also see gross margin
improvement for the next few quarters.

Other materially impacted companies: APNT, PIDI, BRIT, and UBBL


 APNT and PIDI: TiO2 (a key raw material for APNT) prices were flat QoQ and fell
10.5% YoY. VAM (a key raw material for PIDI) prices have recently corrected
sharply and have been stable in 4QFY23 till date. Crude oil prices are at its
lowest level since the start of CY22, with crude-based derivatives expected to
walk the similar path. This augurs well for both APNT and PIDI. However, APNT is
witnessing deterioration in the mix, which may affect EBITDA growth, despite a
gradual decline in commodity costs.
 BRIT witnessed price moderation in its RM basket. Wheat prices were up 20.7%
YoY/flat QoQ, while sugar prices were flat QoQ/YoY (still at elevated levels).
SMP prices declined 14.9% QoQ/25.3% YoY. The management has initiated
various price hikes and grammage reductions in the past few quarters, which
will boost margins.
 DABUR: Its commodity basket has been relatively less affected as compared to
other players. Increasing LLP costs may affect gross margin in the near term,
offset by the recent price hikes. Weakness in rural demand (where DABUR is
significantly over-indexed v/s its peers) remains a significant near-term concern
for the stock.
 MRCO: Input costs continued to ease (data available up to Jan’23). Copra prices
fell 12.6% YoY while remaining flat QoQ, underpinned by a good harvest. HDPE
prices were also flat QoQ/YoY. MRCO should maintain margin due to stable
input costs QoQ.
 UBBL: The two key RMs for UBBL are barley and glass bottles (packaging costs).
For the first time in the past many months, barley costs declined sharply by 18%
MoM in Mar’23. However, glass bottle costs continued to rise.
 UNSP will also be affected by double-digit YoY inflation in glass bottle costs.

24 March 2023 10
In conversation

Tata Consumer: We've been investing in the coffee portfolio;


Coffee portfolio growing upwards of 30%; Puneet Das, President
 Tea trends are looking much more positive
 We're a very small player in coffee with just 1% share
 Market leaders must be feeling the pinch in coffee prices
 We've been investing in the coffee portfolio
 Coffee portfolio growing upwards of 30%
 We're able to absorb price increases in coffee

Arvind SmartSpaces: Every Rs 1,000 cr investment will give a


topline of Rs 3,000-5,000 cr; Kamal Singal, MD & CEO
 We are able to pass on costs with every increase in land price
 Not in an ultra-luxury, target 15,000- 20,000/sqft market
 Focussed on mid-price market in MMR region as well
 Lower segment will see a direct impact on interest rate hikes
 Executing 17 million sqft & 8 million sqft will hit the market soon
 Seeing good traction from fresh sales, this momentum shall continue in Q4
 Have been growing at 30-40%
 We are looking at an investment of excess of Rs.1,000 crore
 Should deploy Rs.1,000 crore in the next 1-2 quarters
 Land prices have gone up, shows buoyancy in the demand

Keystone Realtors: Higher interest rates impacted affordable


segment; Boman Rustom Irani, CMD
 Higher Interest Rates Impacted Affordable Segment
 Aspirational Class Saw A Good Amount Of Interest
 Infra, High Salaries Aiding Luxury Sales
 Tough To Give An Affordable Home In Mumbai
 RERA Has Seen A Lot Of Interest Among Investors
 Foray Into Eastern Suburbs Has Been Successful

GAIL: Increase in pipeline tariff will aid EBITDA by Rs 1,600 cr at


current volume; Rakesh Kumar Jain, Director-Finance
 Most reduction done by PNGRB is on assumption part, will approach PNGRB for
review of the order
 PNGRB notified increased prices for 9 of our physically interconnected pipelines
 Have transmitted 111 m gas/day in last one year, will transmit 121 m in FY24
 EBITDA overall should see an increase of nearly Rs.1,600 cr
 Gas marketing revenue in FY24 is seen at Rs.3,500 Cr
 Kirit Parikh committee report once implemented will have positive impact on LPG
biz; Transition volume will increase to 123 mmscmd

24 March 2023 11
Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
Valuation snapshot
CMP TP % Upside EPS (INR) EPS Gr. YoY (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Company Reco (INR) (INR) Downside FY23E FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
Automobiles
Amara Raja Neutral 573 630 10 45.9 49.5 53.4 53.5 7.6 7.9 11.6 10.7 1.7 1.5 15.7 15.2
Apollo Tyres Buy 310 395 27 17.7 25.3 31.8 57.5 42.9 25.8 12.3 9.7 1.3 1.2 11.0 12.6
Ashok Ley. Buy 137 185 35 3.9 7.7 10.1 6,506.9 99.8 29.9 17.7 13.6 4.2 3.4 26.0 27.4
Bajaj Auto Neutral 3861 4150 7 213.0 241.0 266.3 16.0 13.2 10.5 16.0 14.5 4.4 4.2 27.7 29.6
Balkrishna Inds Neutral 1979 2035 3 52.5 81.5 96.2 -28.9 55.2 18.1 24.3 20.6 4.5 3.9 19.5 20.3
Bharat Forge Buy 770 1065 38 16.9 33.3 42.6 -22.3 97.9 27.9 23.1 18.1 4.3 3.6 20.2 21.6
Bosch Neutral 18432 18125 -2 495.3 634.8 724.7 20.0 28.2 14.2 29.0 25.4 4.4 4.0 15.7 16.5
CEAT Buy 1407 1860 32 40.6 119.0 151.0 106.7 193.3 26.9 11.8 9.3 1.5 1.3 13.4 15.0
Craftsman Auto Buy 2982 3925 32 104.7 177.8 218.3 37.8 69.9 22.8 16.8 13.7 3.7 2.9 24.5 24.0
Eicher Mot. Buy 2924 3625 24 102.5 134.7 170.4 67.1 31.4 26.5 21.7 17.2 4.5 3.7 22.3 23.1
Endurance Tech. Buy 1231 1625 32 35.5 53.3 62.3 3.0 49.9 16.8 23.1 19.8 3.6 3.2 16.5 17.2
Escorts Kubota Neutral 1857 1900 2 58.2 74.3 94.9 -15.9 27.6 27.8 25.0 19.6 2.6 2.3 10.7 12.4
Exide Ind Buy 177 215 21 11.5 13.0 15.7 16.2 13.5 20.4 13.6 11.3 1.2 1.1 9.1 10.1
Hero Moto Buy 2362 3100 31 140.1 174.7 194.5 13.2 24.6 11.4 13.5 12.1 2.7 2.5 20.5 21.5
M&M Buy 1165 1525 31 61.8 78.2 89.2 43.7 26.6 14.0 14.9 13.1 2.7 2.3 19.6 19.1
Mahindra CIE Buy 362 450 24 18.1 23.6 27.4 69.2 30.5 16.4 15.3 13.2 2.4 2.1 16.3 16.7
Maruti Suzuki Buy 8340 10500 26 262.3 367.0 436.0 104.2 40.0 18.8 22.7 19.1 3.7 3.3 16.3 17.0
MRF Sell 84168 75000 -11 1,595.6 3,124.7 4,129.6 1.1 95.8 32.2 26.9 20.4 2.2 2.0 8.7 10.5
Samvardh.
Buy 65 100 53 2.1 3.9 5.3 71.4 89.4 33.7 16.6 12.4 1.9 1.7 11.9 14.5
Motherson
Motherson
Buy 48 73 54 1.1 1.8 2.2 4.4 65.7 20.0 26.0 21.7 11.1 8.5 50.0 44.5
Wiring
Sona BLW Precis. Neutral 414 520 26 6.9 10.1 12.8 18.9 45.8 26.9 41.0 32.3 8.8 7.4 23.4 24.9
Tata Motors Buy 419 540 29 -5.3 27.1 33.4 -81.3 LP 23.3 15.5 12.5 2.9 2.4 20.9 20.9
TVS Motor Neutral 1047 1000 -5 32.0 42.3 49.2 68.9 32.3 16.4 24.8 21.3 6.4 5.0 28.8 26.4
Tube
Buy 2479 3219 30 66.8 82.1 101.8 32.2 23.0 24.0 30.2 24.3 9.5 7.5 35.3 34.5
Investments
Aggregate 106.3 69.3 19.6 18.9 15.8 3.3 2.9 17.6 18.3
Banks - Private
AU Small Finance Buy 569 740 30 22.2 26.5 33.2 23.3 19 25.4 21.5 17.2 3.0 2.5 14.9 16.0
Axis Bank Buy 849 1130 33 33.1 82.7 95.1 -22.1 150 15.0 10.3 8.9 1.7 1.5 18.4 17.6
Bandhan Bank Neutral 213 270 27 15.1 27.4 34.3 1,828.7 82 25.1 7.8 6.2 1.5 1.3 21.2 22.4
DCB Bank Neutral 107 125 17 14.6 16.8 20.3 58.3 14.5 21.1 6.4 5.3 0.7 0.6 11.7 12.7
Federal Bank Buy 127 170 34 14.0 16.1 18.9 51.8 15.1 17.3 7.9 6.7 1.1 1.0 14.8 15.2
HDFC Bank Buy 1563 1930 24 79.6 94.8 112.8 19.0 19.1 19.1 16.5 13.8 2.7 2.3 17.4 17.7
ICICI Bank Buy 856 1150 34 46.7 52.8 61.6 38.8 13.1 16.7 16.2 13.9 2.5 2.2 17.1 17.0
IDFC First Bk Buy 55 70 27 3.6 4.9 6.6 1,390.2 33.4 34.8 11.3 8.4 1.3 1.1 11.8 14.0
IndusInd Buy 1018 1450 42 97.4 124.5 160.5 57.0 27.8 28.9 8.2 6.3 1.2 1.1 16.4 18.0
Kotak Mah. Bk Neutral 1679 2000 19 73.9 85.4 100.0 21.3 15.6 17.1 19.7 16.8 2.6 2.3 13.6 13.7
-
RBL Bank Buy 140 200 43 14.2 19.2 25.0 34.8 30.4 7.3 5.6 0.6 0.5 8.4 10.2
1,240.8
SBI Cards Buy 721 960 33 24.1 32.1 43.0 40.4 33.4 33.7 22.4 16.8 5.4 4.1 27.0 27.9
Aggregate 27.6 30.9 19.6 14.9 12.5 2.4 2.0 15.9 16.3
Banks - PSU
BOB Buy 163 240 48 26.6 31.1 36.1 89.2 17.2 15.8 5.2 4.5 0.8 0.7 15.2 15.3
Canara Bank Buy 281 410 46 57.7 75.1 93.6 76.0 30.1 24.6 3.7 3.0 0.6 0.5 16.5 17.5
Indian Bank Buy 277 340 23 44.3 56.4 66.8 33.3 27.4 18.4 4.9 4.1 0.7 0.6 15.5 16.1
Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral 47 50 7 2.2 6.0 8.0 -32.6 176.6 33.2 7.8 5.9 0.5 0.5 6.6 8.2
SBI Buy 513 725 41 60.3 71.5 83.4 52.2 18 16.6 7.2 6.2 1.1 1.0 17.6 17.2
Union Bank (I) Buy 65 100 55 11.6 15.7 20.5 47.1 35 30.4 4.1 3.2 0.5 0.5 14.3 16.8
Aggregate 54.1 26 20 6 5.2 0.9 0.8 14.5 15.3
NBFCs
AAVAS Financiers Neutral 1699 2020 19 53.8 65.2 86.3 19.0 21.2 32.3 26.1 19.7 3.6 3.0 14.7 16.7
Aditya Birla Cap Buy 154 175 13 8.4 9.8 11.7 18.5 17.0 19.5 15.8 13.2 1.8 1.6 12.2 12.8
Angel One Buy 1183 2100 78 103.0 111.6 131.4 36.6 8.4 17.7 10.6 9.0 3.6 3.0 37.9 36.1

24 March 2023 12
Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
Valuation snapshot
CMP TP % Upside EPS (INR) EPS Gr. YoY (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Company Reco (INR) (INR) Downside FY23E FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
Bajaj Fin. Buy 5837 6880 18 190.7 228.6 289.9 63.7 19.9 26.8 25.5 20.1 5.4 4.4 23.3 24.0
Cams Services Buy 2171 2800 29 58.8 70.6 84.9 0.2 20.1 20.2 30.7 25.6 12.2 10.5 42.7 44.1
Can Fin Homes Buy 540 630 17 45.3 51.2 61.0 28.0 13.0 19.1 10.6 8.9 1.7 1.4 17.2 17.4
Cholaman.Inv.&F
Buy 747 880 18 31.0 38.1 46.6 18.6 23.1 22.3 19.6 16.0 3.6 3.0 20.2 20.5
n
HDFC Buy 2568 3050 19 70.8 80.4 92.2 13.5 13.5 14.8 32.0 27.8 3.2 3.0 13.2 13.5
HDFC Life Insur. Neutral 499 670 34 6.5 7.5 8.7 13.2 15.5 16.5 66.8 57.3 2.3 1.9 18.6 18.8
Home First Fin. Buy 689 930 35 25.7 31.5 40.0 19.2 22.9 27.0 21.8 17.2 2.9 2.5 14.3 15.7
ICICI Pru Life Buy 419 530 27 5.9 6.3 7.0 12.3 7.3 11.2 66.2 59.6 1.4 1.2 15.7 15.6
ICICI Lombard Buy 1084 1500 38 32.4 38.9 48.5 25.2 20.1 24.5 27.8 22.4 4.7 4.1 17.7 19.5
ICICI Securities Buy 439 610 39 35.9 40.5 44.6 -16.2 12.8 10.0 10.8 9.8 4.3 3.7 42.6 40.6
360 ONE WAM Buy 430 550 28 19.8 22.4 25.2 21.8 12.9 12.4 19.2 17.1 4.7 4.5 25.2 26.9
IndoStar Buy 120 257 114 16.5 29.7 44.4 -130.4 80.1 49.6 4.0 2.7 0.5 0.4 12.1 15.8
L&T Fin Holdings Buy 85 120 42 6.5 8.4 10.0 52.7 30.0 18.5 10.1 8.5 0.9 0.8 9.4 10.2
Life Insurance
Buy 569 830 46 39.0 34.9 38.4 497.8 -10.6 10.3 16.3 14.8 0.6 0.5 11.8 11.0
Corp.
LIC Hsg Fin Buy 335 440 31 45.6 63.4 71.9 9.7 39.1 13.4 5.3 4.7 0.6 0.6 12.7 13.1
Manappuram
Buy 122 150 23 17.8 21.5 24.8 13.2 21.1 15.4 5.7 4.9 0.9 0.8 17.7 17.7
Fin.
MAS Financial Buy 833 970 16 36.9 46.9 59.4 27.9 26.9 26.8 17.8 14.0 2.8 2.4 16.7 18.4
Max Financial Neutral 633 900 42 15.0 14.5 16.7 84.5 -3.5 15.7 43.8 37.8 1.4 1.1 19.6 20.1
M&M Fin. Buy 227 290 28 13.9 17.0 21.7 73.9 22.1 27.7 13.3 10.5 1.6 1.4 12.3 14.3
Muthoot Fin Neutral 982 1140 16 86.9 95.1 103.5 -11.8 9.3 8.9 10.3 9.5 1.6 1.4 16.9 16.2
Piramal Enterp. Buy 666 1150 73 446.5 86.0 97.8 541.1 -80.7 13.7 7.7 6.8 0.5 0.5 6.3 6.8
PNB Housing Neutral 510 600 18 62.7 75.0 89.8 26.3 19.6 19.7 6.8 5.7 0.7 0.7 11.1 12.1
Poonawalla
Buy 285 350 23 7.5 12.1 17.1 95.4 62.0 40.9 23.5 16.7 2.1 1.9 11.2 12.0
Fincorp
Repco Home Fin Neutral 180 245 36 47.2 53.0 59.5 54.3 12.2 12.3 3.4 3.0 0.4 0.4 12.4 12.4
Shriram Finance Buy 1262 1700 35 176.3 195.8 223.8 56.8 11.0 14.3 6.4 5.6 1.0 0.8 15.7 15.8
SBI Life Insurance Buy 1119 1570 40 16.7 18.7 20.8 10.8 12.2 11.1 59.7 53.8 1.9 1.6 21.0 21.8
Star Health Insu Buy 553 700 27 11.6 17.0 22.2 -164.1 46.7 30.6 32.5 24.9 4.0 3.5 13.1 14.9
Aggregate 52.2 2.0 18.4 17.4 14.7 2.4 2.1 13.9 14.6
Chemicals
Alkyl Amines Neutral 2303 2950 28 47.4 62.1 77.6 7.7 31.0 25.0 37.1 29.7 8.4 6.9 24.6 25.5
Atul Neutral 6870 8328 21 176.4 212.9 246.3 -11.3 20.7 15.7 32.3 27.9 3.7 3.4 12.2 12.7
Clean Science Neutral 1346 1345 0 27.8 30.5 33.6 29.3 9.7 10.2 44.1 40.0 11.0 8.9 28.0 24.7
Deepak Nitrite Neutral 1810 1890 4 60.7 89.3 96.3 -22.4 47.2 7.7 20.3 18.8 4.9 4.0 26.7 23.3
Fine Organic Neutral 4503 5650 25 180.9 168.0 159.2 121.2 -7.1 -5.3 26.8 28.3 8.1 6.7 33.7 26.0
Galaxy Surfact. Buy 2388 3475 46 110.7 85.0 104.0 49.4 -23.2 22.3 28.1 23.0 4.0 3.6 15.2 16.5
Navin Fluorine Neutral 4264 4525 6 71.5 109.2 136.0 32.9 52.7 24.6 39.1 31.4 8.2 6.8 22.9 23.7
NOCIL Buy 210 280 33 8.6 12.5 14.5 -18.8 45.4 16.5 16.8 14.5 2.1 2.0 13.1 14.1
Vinati Organics Buy 1780 2615 47 46.5 58.9 80.0 37.9 26.7 35.7 30.2 22.3 6.8 5.4 24.6 27.1
Aggregate 8.7 21.7 12.7 29.1 25.8 5.6 4.7 19.1 18.3
Cement
Ambuja Cem. Neutral 372 375 1 11.7 11.1 10.5 8.9 -5.2 -4.8 33.6 35.3 2.5 2.0 12.9 10.2
ACC Neutral 1738 2215 27 53.1 81.2 100.7 -47.2 53.1 24.0 21.4 17.3 2.2 2.0 10.4 11.9
Birla Corp. Buy 931 1150 24 3.5 45.5 67.4 -93.8 1,201.5 48.1 20.5 13.8 1.1 1.1 5.7 7.9
Dalmia Bhar. Buy 1824 2120 16 36.1 47.1 63.6 -8.7 30.2 35.1 38.8 28.7 2.0 1.9 5.3 6.9
Grasim Inds. Buy 1606 1900 18 100.5 100.5 98.7 -9.9 0.0 -1.8 16.0 16.3 2.0 2.0 8.5 5.7
-
India Cem Sell 180 160 -11 -13.4 3.4 7.7 LP 125.1 52.4 23.3 0.9 0.9 1.7 3.7
1,160.4
J K Cements Buy 2837 3260 15 70.3 86.5 110.3 -19.2 23.0 27.4 32.8 25.7 4.2 3.7 13.4 15.3
JK Lakshmi Ce Buy 734 850 16 30.1 42.8 52.3 -7.5 42.3 22.2 17.2 14.0 2.7 2.3 17.1 17.9
Ramco Cem Neutral 740 700 -5 12.3 21.3 30.5 -50.7 73.2 43.2 34.7 24.2 2.4 2.2 7.2 9.6
Shree Cem Neutral 25428 22410 -12 340.4 489.8 593.2 -45.9 43.9 21.1 51.9 42.9 4.6 4.3 9.3 10.4
Ultratech Buy 7412 7875 6 176.0 212.8 250.9 -10.4 20.9 17.9 34.8 29.5 3.6 3.3 10.8 11.6

24 March 2023 13
Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
Valuation snapshot
CMP TP % Upside EPS (INR) EPS Gr. YoY (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Company Reco (INR) (INR) Downside FY23E FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
Aggregate -20.0 20.0 15.2 28.1 24.3 2.7 2.4 9.7 9.8
Consumer
Asian Paints Neutral 2797 3090 10 42.1 54.4 61.8 26.3 29.2 13.6 51.4 45.3 17.0 15.1 34.3 35.4
Britannia Neutral 4244 4600 8 80.1 89.0 101.8 27.2 11.1 14.3 47.7 41.7 36.2 32.0 80.4 81.4
Colgate Neutral 1520 1565 3 37.5 43.1 47.4 -2.6 15.0 9.9 35.3 32.1 23.8 23.8 67.6 74.3
Dabur Buy 539 650 21 10.5 11.9 14.4 2.0 13.4 20.4 45.2 37.5 9.5 8.6 21.9 24.0
Emami Buy 364 485 33 15.9 20.5 21.9 -16.6 28.8 6.8 17.8 16.7 7.4 7.0 43.0 43.1
Godrej Cons. Buy 952 1080 13 16.4 22.5 26.9 -6.2 36.6 19.8 42.4 35.4 7.2 6.8 17.7 19.8
HUL Buy 2485 3100 25 42.7 48.8 56.4 13.2 14.4 15.6 50.9 44.1 12.6 13.0 24.5 29.1
ITC Buy 380 450 18 15.0 17.5 19.7 23.0 16.2 13.0 21.8 19.3 6.9 6.4 32.6 34.2
Indigo Paints Buy 1042 1410 35 21.4 29.5 37.1 21.2 37.6 25.8 35.3 28.1 5.6 4.6 17.1 18.0
Jyothy Lab Neutral 188 210 12 6.2 7.9 9.9 44.1 27.2 24.3 23.7 19.0 4.2 3.9 18.2 21.1
Marico Buy 479 580 21 9.7 11.2 12.6 2.0 15.4 13.0 42.9 37.9 16.9 15.9 40.8 43.2
Nestle Neutral 19023 19875 4 247.9 289.2 348.3 3.0 16.6 20.4 65.8 54.6 77.9 75.3 115.8 140.2
Page Inds Neutral 37487 35400 -6 540.4 630.2 787.0 12.3 16.6 24.9 59.5 47.6 31.4 28.6 52.8 60.1
Pidilite Ind. Neutral 2368 2245 -5 25.9 33.1 40.8 10.3 27.7 23.2 71.5 58.0 15.6 14.1 22.9 25.6
P&G Hygiene Neutral 13811 15180 10 174.8 269.2 315.1 -3.1 54.0 17.0 51.3 43.8 50.8 41.3 104.4 104.1
Tata Consumer Buy 707 900 27 11.8 15.9 18.8 11.2 34.9 18.4 44.6 37.6 3.8 3.4 8.8 9.3
United Brew Sell 1436 1250 -13 17.5 25.9 35.2 23.6 48.5 35.6 55.4 40.8 8.0 7.3 15.1 18.7
United Spirits Neutral 769 835 9 12.9 15.5 18.6 3.0 19.9 19.8 49.6 41.4 9.1 8.3 18.4 20.0
Varun Beverages Buy 1354 1620 20 23.1 29.0 36.9 115.8 25.7 27.4 46.7 36.7 13.0 9.9 31.7 30.6
Aggregate 14.6 19.2 15.4 39.5 34.3 11.0 10.4 27.9 30.4
Healthcare
Alembic Phar Neutral 489 580 19 21.5 31.4 36.4 -38.6 46.0 16.0 15.6 13.4 1.6 1.5 10.8 11.4
Alkem Lab Neutral 3149 3530 12 107.7 146.7 179.3 -22.0 36.2 22.2 21.5 17.6 3.4 3.0 17.1 18.2
Ajanta Pharma Buy 1231 1410 15 51.7 59.5 69.0 -3.7 14.9 16.0 20.7 17.8 3.7 3.2 19.0 19.1
Apollo Hospitals Buy 4271 5700 33 57.4 87.8 127.2 -15.6 52.8 44.9 48.6 33.6 7.7 6.3 17.7 20.7
Aurobindo Neutral 486 500 3 37.6 44.5 48.7 -14.6 18.3 9.6 10.9 10.0 1.0 0.9 9.4 9.5
Biocon Neutral 207 250 21 6.5 13.8 17.9 -11.4 111.5 30.1 15.0 11.5 1.4 1.3 9.8 11.9
Zydus
Neutral 482 460 -5 25.0 25.7 27.0 15.9 2.9 5.1 18.7 17.8 2.3 2.1 12.9 12.4
Lifesciences
Cipla Neutral 870 990 14 40.5 45.1 49.9 14.5 11.5 10.5 19.3 17.4 2.7 2.3 13.8 13.4
Divis Lab Neutral 2801 2620 -6 64.5 65.2 84.9 -41.6 1.2 30.1 42.9 33.0 5.3 4.7 12.8 15.1
Dr Reddy’s Neutral 4448 4420 -1 248.2 248.7 277.3 41.1 0.2 11.5 17.9 16.0 2.8 2.4 16.6 16.0
ERIS Lifescience Buy 569 710 25 28.3 36.5 37.8 -4.2 29.1 3.5 15.6 15.0 3.0 2.6 20.9 18.6
Gland Pharma Buy 1295 1700 31 57.8 70.0 79.7 -21.7 21.2 13.8 18.5 16.2 2.3 2.0 13.3 13.2
Glenmark Neutral 437 420 -4 31.2 38.1 45.7 -9.6 21.9 19.9 11.5 9.6 1.1 1.0 10.2 11.1
GSK Pharma Neutral 1294 1300 0 37.3 39.4 42.4 10.0 5.7 7.7 32.9 30.5 7.0 6.5 21.3 21.2
Granules India Buy 281 360 28 21.7 25.3 30.7 34.4 16.4 21.4 11.1 9.1 1.9 1.6 18.4 18.7
IPCA Labs Buy 785 990 26 21.3 30.5 39.2 -41.4 43.2 28.5 25.7 20.0 3.0 2.7 12.4 14.3
Laurus Labs Buy 303 440 45 17.6 19.9 24.6 13.5 13.4 23.2 15.2 12.3 3.2 2.6 23.2 23.5
Lupin Sell 649 610 -6 6.6 22.0 30.3 -65.7 234.9 37.9 29.5 21.4 2.2 2.0 7.8 9.9
Piramal Pharma Buy 70 105 50 0.4 1.8 3.9 360.3 112.8 38.1 17.9 1.2 1.1 3.3 6.6
Solara Active
Buy 369 530 44 -6.0 13.6 26.3 -60.2 LP 92.7 27.0 14.0 0.9 0.9 3.2 6.1
Pharma
Sun Pharma Buy 977 1220 25 35.7 41.7 47.6 14.1 16.8 14.2 23.5 20.5 3.6 3.2 16.6 16.4
Torrent Pharma Neutral 1531 1590 4 40.2 52.2 64.2 17.1 29.9 23.0 29.3 23.8 6.1 3.1 22.4 25.7
Aggregate -1.8 20.4 17.4 21.9 18.7 2.9 2.6 13.3 13.8
Infrastructure
G R Infraproject Buy 1028 1400 36 88.5 95.7 117.6 12.1 8.1 22.8 10.7 8.7 1.6 1.4 16.3 16.9
IRB Infra Neutral 25 33 33 1.2 1.6 1.8 108.4 25.2 18.1 15.9 13.5 1.1 1.0 7.0 7.8
KNR
Buy 254 305 20 13.8 17.1 20.0 7.8 23.7 16.9 14.9 12.7 2.3 1.9 16.4 16.3
Constructions
Aggregate 13.6 11.3 1.4 1.2 10.2 10.9
Logistics

24 March 2023 14
Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
Valuation snapshot
CMP TP % Upside EPS (INR) EPS Gr. YoY (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Company Reco (INR) (INR) Downside FY23E FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
Blue Dart Express Neutral 6109 7650 25 161.6 215.4 287.0 -7.0 33.3 33.2 28.4 21.3 9.0 6.7 36.1 36.0
Concor Buy 590 810 37 19.8 26.1 33.1 13.4 31.9 27.0 22.6 17.8 3.0 2.8 13.7 16.4
Mahindra
Neutral 363 470 29 4.7 13.3 21.5 93.4 180.8 61.4 27.3 16.9 3.8 3.2 14.8 20.5
Logistics
Transport Corp. Buy 628 750 19 40.9 44.1 51.8 8.8 7.8 17.6 14.2 12.1 2.4 2.0 17.9 17.8
TCI Express Buy 1458 1751 20 36.5 43.8 51.5 8.4 20.0 17.5 33.3 28.3 7.5 6.1 24.7 23.7
Aggregate 23.5 18.4 3.7 3.3 15.9 18.1
Media
PVR Neutral 1548 1570 1 18.9 49.8 85.5 -127.5 163.2 71.9 31.1 18.1 5.3 4.1 18.5 25.5
Sun TV Buy 428 510 19 43.0 44.4 47.9 3.1 3.1 7.9 9.6 8.9 1.8 1.7 18.6 18.7
Zee Ent. Buy 216 265 23 6.4 12.1 14.2 -40.8 88.9 17.7 17.9 15.2 1.8 1.6 10.2 11.1
Aggregate 7.1 32.5 17.5 14.6 12.5 2.0 1.9 14.0 14.9
Metals
Coal India Buy 213 275 29 54.0 33.0 30.7 91.4 -38.8 -7.0 6.5 6.9 1.9 1.7 29.1 23.8
Hindalco Buy 399 570 43 47.4 70.0 79.9 -22.7 47.7 14.1 5.7 5.0 1.2 1.0 22.2 21.0
Hind. Zinc Neutral 320 350 9 25.2 32.7 33.0 9.2 29.4 1.2 9.8 9.7 4.1 3.9 42.0 41.0
JSPL Buy 557 700 26 45.8 67.8 93.4 -46.8 48.0 37.9 8.2 6.0 1.2 1.0 16.1 18.9
JSW Steel Neutral 668 710 6 12.3 79.6 98.6 -86.1 546.8 23.9 8.4 6.8 2.0 1.6 26.1 25.7
Nalco Neutral 77 88 14 6.4 11.3 18.6 -60.1 76.0 64.6 6.9 4.2 1.0 0.9 15.2 22.8
NMDC Buy 111 155 40 16.3 18.3 15.9 -51.1 11.9 -12.8 6.1 7.0 1.5 1.4 25.6 20.4
SAIL Neutral 86 95 11 4.7 12.3 13.0 -83.9 160 5.2 7.0 6.6 0.6 0.6 8.9 8.7
Tata Steel Neutral 105 115 10 8.7 15.8 17.9 -73.6 82 13.2 6.6 5.8 1.0 0.9 15.9 16.1
Vedanta Neutral 271 330 22 29.5 38.5 44.2 -43.9 31 14.9 7.0 6.1 2.1 1.9 29.8 31.8
Aggregate -41.1 33.4 11.3 7.3 6.5 1.5 1.3 20.0 19.6
Oil & Gas
Aegis Logistics Neutral 394 340 -14 15.5 15.4 16.5 44.9 -0.4 7.0 25.5 23.8 4.4 3.9 18.6 17.4
BPCL Neutral 348 348 0 -1.8 41.9 42.3 -103.5 LP 0.8 8.3 8.2 1.3 1.2 16.2 14.9
Castrol India Buy 110 145 31 8.2 8.6 9.1 7.5 3.9 5.8 12.9 12.2 5.3 4.8 42.9 41.5
GAIL Buy 105 147 40 8.3 14.4 14.6 -46.5 74.7 0.9 7.3 7.2 1.0 0.9 14.6 13.2
Gujarat Gas Buy 491 610 24 20.2 19.2 22.7 7.6 -5.3 18.2 25.6 21.7 4.2 3.6 17.8 17.9
Gujarat St. Pet. Buy 274 339 24 16.1 18.1 18.8 -7.2 12.4 3.8 15.1 14.6 1.5 1.4 10.5 10.0
HPCL Neutral 243 247 2 -55.0 44.0 42.6 -214.9 LP -3.2 5.5 5.7 1.0 0.9 18.8 16.0
IOC Buy 79 98 24 1.7 11.0 10.6 -90.8 558.4 -3.6 7.2 7.5 0.8 0.7 10.7 9.8
IGL Sell 439 340 -23 20.6 20.7 22.6 9.7 0.4 9.3 21.2 19.4 3.4 3.0 17.1 16.6
Mahanagar Gas Buy 973 1068 10 69.7 77.0 76.0 15.3 10.5 -1.3 12.6 12.8 2.2 2.0 17.9 16.0
MRPL Neutral 54 66 22 2.3 5.7 5.7 -71.5 141.8 0.6 9.6 9.5 2.1 1.8 23.8 20.2
Oil India Buy 257 272 6 61.9 41.6 43.2 79.9 -32.7 3.8 6.2 5.9 0.8 0.7 13.3 12.8
ONGC Buy 153 200 31 38.7 49.1 51.6 20.1 27.0 5.1 3.1 3.0 0.6 0.5 20.6 19.0
PLNG Neutral 229 208 -9 20.9 18.7 19.0 -6.4 -10.7 1.9 12.3 12.1 2.1 1.9 17.9 16.8
Reliance Ind. Buy 2248 2800 25 91.7 106.9 118.4 6.1 16.6 10.8 21.0 19.0 1.6 1.5 8.3 8.5
Aggregate -24.9 50.4 5.8 11.1 10.5 1.3 1.2 11.6 11.2
Real Estate
Brigade Enterpr. Buy 463 720 55 14.3 24.0 31.8 68.0 68.1 32.4 19.3 14.6 2.6 2.2 14.3 16.3
DLF Neutral 368 415 13 12.4 18.2 30.7 84.2 47.2 68.4 20.2 12.0 1.6 1.5 8.3 12.8
Godrej Propert. Neutral 1066 1300 22 30.5 47.1 43.9 141.6 54.6 -6.8 22.6 24.3 2.7 2.4 12.9 11.2
Oberoi Realty Buy 855 1100 29 109.3 35.4 44.9 279.6 -67.6 26.9 24.2 19.1 2.0 1.8 8.6 10.0
Macrotech Devel.Buy 847 1530 81 29.9 38.8 43.7 19.9 29.8 12.5 21.8 19.4 2.9 2.6 14.1 14.2
Mahindra
Buy 341 550 61 9.6 10.8 13.9 761.5 12.6 28.7 31.6 24.6 2.4 2.2 8.0 9.5
Lifespace
Sobha Buy 436 855 96 9.9 45.0 66.1 -44.8 352.8 47.0 9.7 6.6 1.4 1.2 15.6 19.4
Prestige Estates Buy 419 675 61 8.7 13.7 14.7 -28.6 58.1 7.3 30.6 28.5 1.5 1.5 5.2 5.3
Phoenix Mills Buy 1294 1700 31 47.4 49.4 74.8 256.7 4.2 51.3 26.2 17.3 2.7 2.3 10.6 14.3
Aggregate 91.4 0.2 36.0 25.0 18.3 2.3 2.1 9.4 11.5
Retail
Avenue Neutral 3370 4050 20 37.0 51.5 62.1 60.4 39.5 20.5 65.4 54.3 10.8 8.9 18.7 18.7

24 March 2023 15
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for detailed
valuation guide
Valuation snapshot
CMP TP % Upside EPS (INR) EPS Gr. YoY (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Company Reco (INR) (INR) Downside FY23E FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
Supermarts
Aditya Birla
Buy 212 305 44 1.1 2.3 4.6 -181.6 122.8 96.4 90.5 46.1 4.1 3.8 5.4 8.5
Fashion
Bata India Neutral 1415 1690 19 24.3 33.4 43.3 203.2 37.7 29.6 42.3 32.6 7.1 5.8 18.4 19.7
Barbeque-Nation Neutral 669 870 30 6.7 13.1 19.0 -201.3 96.3 44.6 51.0 35.2 5.6 4.8 11.0 13.8
Campus
Buy 369 480 30 4.5 6.1 8.6 7.3 36.1 41.5 60.4 42.7 15.0 11.1 24.9 26.0
Activewe.
Devyani Intl. Buy 141 190 35 2.2 2.8 3.5 53.0 23.5 26.8 51.3 40.4 12.9 9.7 28.9 27.5
Jubilant Food. Buy 448 575 28 6.4 7.6 10.1 -3.5 19.8 32.6 58.7 44.3 13.6 12.4 23.1 28.0
Metro Brands Buy 780 1050 35 13.9 16.5 20.3 77.9 19.1 23.3 47.3 38.4 10.3 8.3 24.8 24.4
Relaxo Footwear Neutral 832 750 -10 6.4 11.3 15.0 -31.2 75.0 33.2 73.9 55.5 9.9 8.7 14.1 16.7
Restaurant
Buy 90 160 78 -3.9 -2.1 -1.5 -8.8 Loss Loss NM NM 5.7 5.0 -13.1 -8.6
Brands
Sapphire Foods Buy 1188 1670 41 17.0 23.1 35.2 134.3 36.1 52.6 51.5 33.7 6.0 5.1 12.3 16.3
Shoppers Stop Neutral 642 705 10 9.2 17.5 22.6 -207.1 90.0 29.3 36.8 28.5 16.8 10.6 59.3 45.6
Titan Company Buy 2518 3070 22 36.8 44.7 55.8 40.2 21.5 25.0 56.4 45.1 15.4 12.6 30.4 30.8
Trent Buy 1346 1500 11 9.0 13.7 19.7 652.4 53.5 43.5 97.9 68.2 14.1 11.6 16.7 19.9
V-Mart Retail Buy 2281 3020 32 7.1 41.9 83.5 10.4 489.6 99.5 54.5 27.3 4.4 3.8 8.4 14.9
Westlife -
Neutral 689 745 8 7.4 10.0 14.1 34.9 41.5 69.0 48.8 14.6 11.3 23.7 26.1
Foodworld 7,007.2
Aggregate 65.3 35.3 28.8 62.1 48.2 11.5 9.6 18.5 19.8
Technology
Cyient Buy 942 1170 24 51.9 68.6 79.7 8.7 32.2 16.1 13.7 11.8 2.9 2.6 21.9 23.3
HCL Tech. Buy 1066 1270 19 54.6 63.4 72.2 9.5 16.2 13.9 16.8 14.8 4.8 4.9 28.3 32.7
Infosys Buy 1375 1760 28 59.0 67.9 76.9 12.6 14.9 13.3 20.3 17.9 7.7 7.7 38.7 43.3
LTI Mindtree Neutral 4602 4590 0 155.6 183.6 220.3 17.7 18.0 20.0 25.1 20.9 5.3 4.6 22.6 23.6
L&T Technology Buy 3361 3940 17 111.7 131.2 153.2 23.4 17.5 16.7 25.6 21.9 6.3 5.4 26.4 26.4
Mphasis Neutral 1781 2120 19 88.2 101.1 118.9 17.4 14.7 17.5 17.6 15.0 4.0 3.6 24.0 25.5
Coforge Neutral 3750 4040 8 138.1 175.8 194.8 24.5 27.3 10.8 21.3 19.2 5.9 4.9 30.6 28.4
Persistent Sys Neutral 4428 4360 -2 127.7 155.6 180.7 39.9 21.8 16.2 28.5 24.5 7.0 5.9 27.3 26.6
TCS Buy 3124 3810 22 116.3 136.1 156.4 11.8 17.0 14.9 23.0 20.0 12.8 12.7 55.6 63.7
Tech Mah Neutral 1100 1020 -7 58.4 68.2 79.7 -6.7 16.7 16.9 16.1 13.8 3.2 3.0 20.8 22.9
Wipro Neutral 362 380 5 20.9 23.9 27.0 -4.7 14.3 13.1 15.1 13.4 2.9 2.8 19.2 21.1
Zensar Tech Buy 267 280 5 12.7 17.8 20.9 -30.6 39.7 17.5 15.0 12.8 1.9 1.8 13.5 14.7
Aggregate 8.5 16.5 14.6 21.2 18.5 7.1 6.9 33.5 37.3
Telecom
Bharti Airtel Buy 763 985 29 13.6 18.1 28.2 115.5 33.1 56.0 42.1 27.0 4.1 3.5 11.3 14.0
Indus Towers Neutral 151 174 15 9.2 23.2 24.9 -61.1 152.7 7.3 6.5 6.1 1.5 1.2 25.0 22.4
Vodafone Idea 6 -10.3 -9.2 -7.6 4.1 Loss Loss NM NM -0.2 -0.1 NM NM
Tata Comm Neutral 1222 1200 -2 61.5 64.9 85.1 18.6 5.6 31.1 18.8 14.4 7.6 5.0 50 41.8
Aggregate Loss Loss LP -65 178.2 27.5 25.6 -42.5 14.4
Others
APL Apollo Tubes Buy 1244 1400 13 24.0 35.2 44.7 19.5 46.6 26.9 35.3 27.8 9.1 7.1 29.0 28.7
BSE Neutral 439 540 23 13.3 18.2 21.0 -26.6 36.5 15.7 24.2 20.9 2.1 2.1 8.8 9.9
Coromandel Intl Buy 895 1180 32 71.1 69.7 75.1 36.6 -2.0 7.8 12.8 11.9 2.7 2.3 23.1 20.9
EPL Buy 155 210 35 6.3 9.2 11.3 -6.6 45.3 23.1 16.9 13.7 2.4 2.2 14.9 16.9
Indiamart Inter. Buy 4934 5500 11 95.5 111.1 141.6 -1.7 16.3 27.5 44.4 34.8 6.2 5.6 14.8 16.9
Indian Hotels Buy 314 410 31 6.5 8.0 10.0 -456.3 23.6 24.0 39.0 31.5 5.0 4.4 13.6 14.8
Interglobe Neutral 1909 2055 8 25.5 107.1 123.3 -115.9 321 15 18 15.5 -78.1 19.3 -137.4 331.3
Info Edge Neutral 3516 3800 8 31.8 59.0 68.7 -6.7 85.5 16.5 59.6 51.1 3.0 2.8 4.7 10.2
Godrej Agrovet Buy 411 570 39 21.0 20.1 24.1 -2.7 -4.6 20.2 20.5 17.0 3.0 2.8 15.4 17.0
Kaveri Seed Buy 525 600 14 22.7 51.3 56.7 -37.7 126.1 10.5 10.2 9.3 1.9 1.6 20.2 19.0
Lemon Tree
Buy 75 115 53 1.7 1.8 3.1 -269.6 6.3 73.9 42.9 24.6 6.0 4.8 15.0 21.6
Hotel
MCX Neutral 1506 1450 -4 34.9 48.5 61.3 24.1 39.0 26.3 31.0 24.6 5.1 4.9 16.7 20.4
Quess Corp Neutral 352 390 11 12.9 24.6 38.4 -27.1 91.3 56.1 14.3 9.2 1.5 1.3 15.0 21.4

24 March 2023 16
Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
Valuation snapshot
CMP TP % Upside EPS (INR) EPS Gr. YoY (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Company Reco (INR) (INR) Downside FY23E FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
PI Inds. Buy 2956 4300 45 84.6 99.8 115.8 52.4 18.0 16.0 29.6 25.5 5.2 4.3 19.0 18.5
SIS Buy 353 520 47 21.2 26.3 34.3 9.3 23.7 30.6 13.4 10.3 0.9 0.7 15.1 17.0
SRF Neutral 2383 2450 3 74.9 81.3 96.9 22.7 8.5 19.1 29.3 24.6 5.7 4.8 21.1 21.0
Tata Chemicals Neutral 969 1010 4 82.0 67.4 57.5 65.4 -17.8 -14.7 14.4 16.8 1.2 1.1 8.3 6.7
Team Lease Serv. Neutral 2297 2330 1 67.2 77.7 119.7 3.2 15.7 54.0 29.6 19.2 4.1 3.4 14.8 19.2
Trident Buy 28 40 45 1.1 1.8 2.2 -32.8 62.4 26.2 15.6 12.3 2.6 2.2 18.4 19.4
UPL Neutral 710 835 18 77.4 84.4 95.2 22.0 9.0 12.8 8.4 7.5 1.1 0.9 21.7 19.9

24 March 2023 17
Index and MOFSL Universe stock performance

Index 1 Day (%) 1M (%) 12M (%) Index 1 Day (%) 1M (%) 12M (%)
Sensex -0.5 -2.8 0.4 Nifty 500 -0.4 -1.8 -2.0
Nifty-50 -0.4 -2.5 -1.0 Nifty Midcap 100 -0.4 -0.8 2.7
Nifty Next 50 -0.4 0.8 -7.0 Nifty Smallcap 100 -0.4 -1.8 -12.0
Nifty 100 -0.4 -1.9 -2.8 Nifty Midcap 150 -0.4 -1.2 3.5
Nifty 200 -0.4 -1.8 -2.1 Nifty Smallcap 250 -0.3 -1.9 -5.1
Company 1 Day (%) 1M (%) 12M (%) Cholaman.Inv.&Fn 0.1 -0.6 3.5
Automobiles 0.0 -6.0 16.7 Can Fin Homes -1.3 -4.0 -10.7
Amara Raja Batt. -1.6 0.3 -0.8 Cams Services -0.4 -5.6 -9.1
Apollo Tyres -1.5 -5.3 64.0 HDFC -0.6 -1.3 9.4
Ashok Leyland -1.0 -2.4 22.4 Home First Finan -3.5 -8.8 -3.4
Bajaj Auto -1.6 0.7 7.3 Indostar Capital -1.0 -13.9 -49.4
Balkrishna Inds -0.7 -3.8 -4.2 L&T Fin.Holdings -1.1 -4.6 -3.0
Bharat Forge -1.6 -7.2 13.1 LIC Housing Fin. -1.7 -5.0 -8.5
Bosch 0.1 0.6 29.8 M & M Fin. Serv. -1.3 -11.0 43.1
CEAT 0.8 -4.8 44.1 Muthoot Finance 0.9 2.6 -26.6
Craftsman Auto 5.8 -13.6 36.8 Manappuram Fin. 1.8 16.9 3.8
Eicher Motors -0.8 -9.9 22.3 MAS Financial Serv. -0.1 -1.4 51.5
Endurance Tech. -1.0 -6.6 4.3 ICICI Sec 0.4 -8.2 -32.6
Escorts Kubota -1.7 -9.0 0.1 360 One 0.8 -3.8 7.6
Exide Inds. -0.5 2.2 14.6 PNB Housing 0.8 -13.6 30.5
Hero Motocorp 0.3 -5.4 -1.4 Repco Home Fin -0.2 -10.6 -6.8
M&M 0.0 -11.3 50.5 Shriram Finance 1.4 5.1 15.1
Mahindra CIE 2.2 -6.7 116.7 Insurance
Maruti Suzuki 1.1 -4.6 9.1 HDFC Life Insur. 0.2 2.5 -5.3
MRF -0.2 -3.0 25.9 ICICI Pru Life -2.2 4.0 -12.3
Sona BLW Precis. -0.1 -10.7 -40.0 ICICI Lombard 0.1 -1.0 -13.4
Motherson Sumi -0.2 -20.6 -27.5 Life Insurance -0.7 -3.7
Motherson Wiring 0.3 -4.7 Max Financial -2.0 -8.3 -17.4
Tata Motors 0.7 -3.3 -3.8 SBI Life Insuran 0.5 -1.4 2.5
TVS Motor Co. -0.7 -6.2 71.5 Star Health Insu 0.6 -1.8 -16.2
Tube Investments -0.2 -0.7 54.0 Capital Goods -0.4 0.0 25.8
Banks-Private -0.9 -1.3 10.2 ABB 1.5 7.0 64.1
AU Small Fin. Bank -1.8 -4.2 -7.9 Bharat Electron -0.2 -3.2 33.7
Axis Bank -0.1 0.4 16.8 BHEL 0.2 7.7 44.9
Bandhan Bank 0.5 -7.2 -29.9 Cummins India 1.1 2.0 50.1
DCB Bank 2.1 -7.2 44.4 Engineers India 0.1 3.9 20.7
Federal Bank -1.5 -0.6 28.9 K E C Intl. 2.2 1.0 22.1
HDFC Bank -0.8 -2.5 5.9 L&T -0.3 2.1 24.8
ICICI Bank -0.5 1.9 19.2 Siemens 0.7 2.1 45.0
IDFC First Bank -1.7 2.5 35.0 Thermax -0.7 7.6 11.7
IndusInd Bank -1.3 -5.3 9.3 Consumer Durables 0.0 1.2 -13.1
Kotak Mah. Bank -1.5 -1.6 -5.0 Blue Star 1.5 2.2 46.4
RBL Bank -2.4 -8.8 4.4 CG Cons. Elec. -0.1 -2.1 -24.7
SBI Cards -0.9 -2.4 -16.5 Havells -0.2 -0.7 4.4
Banks-PSU -1.7 -0.2 34.8 Voltas -1.3 -7.5 -36.1
BOB -2.8 4.6 53.1 Whirlpool India -0.5 5.6 -18.3
Canara Bank -1.4 2.4 24.6 Orient Electric 0.5 -0.6 -17.2
Indian Bank 1.1 -0.3 83.1 Chemicals
Punjab Natl.Bank -2.0 -2.8 31.5 Alkyl Amines -0.4 -9.0 -20.6
St Bk of India -1.7 -1.6 4.5 Atul -2.0 -4.0 -29.0
Union Bank (I) -1.7 -4.8 66.1 Clean Science -0.5 -4.5 -34.6
Company 1 Day (%) 1M (%) 12M (%) Deepak Nitrite 0.3 1.2 -18.5
NBFCs -0.7 -0.9 4.8 Fine Organic 1.9 -5.9 14.2
Angel Broking 4.0 10.5 -27.5 Galaxy Surfact. 0.1 -0.3 -18.7
Aditya Birla Capital Ltd -1.1 11.0 41.1 Navin Fluo.Intl. 1.3 2.0 6.9
Bajaj Fin. 0.0 -6.0 -16.6
Note: Sectoral performance are of NSE/BSE Indices

24 March 2023 18
Index and MOFSL Universe stock performance

Company 1 Day (%) 1M (%) 12M (%) Company 1 Day (%) 1M (%) 12M (%)
NOCIL 0.2 -8.5 -3.3 Infrastructure -0.3 0.9 4.2
Vinati Organics 1.1 -5.3 -9.8 Torrent Pharma 0.8 3.4 8.4
Cement G R Infraproject 6.1 -3.7 -28.7
Ambuja Cem. -1.0 10.4 24.9 IRB Infra.Devl. -2.4 -16.4 9.2
ACC -0.1 0.5 -16.1 KNR Construct. 0.8 0.4 -10.5
Birla Corp. 1.6 6.2 -11.4 Logistics
Dalmia Bhar. -0.9 -3.5 29.6 Blue Dart Exp. 0.6 -2.0 -1.5
Grasim Inds. -0.5 1.6 1.5 Container Corpn. -0.7 0.4 -4.0
India Cem -1.0 -4.5 -13.9 Mahindra Logis. -1.4 -3.0 -17.7
J K Cements 0.0 0.9 22.1 Transport Corp. 0.2 -3.6 10.6
JK Lakshmi Ce 1.8 -2.0 76.4 TCI Express 0.8 -6.4 -16.5
Ramco Cem 1.1 2.3 1.4 Media -0.1 0.0 -20.8
Shree Cem -0.2 -0.8 8.5 PVR 0.1 -3.3 -11.9
Ultratech 0.3 3.3 18.9 Sun TV -1.0 -2.4 -6.4
Consumer 0.4 -0.6 26.5 Zee Ent. 0.8 8.7 -15.6
Asian Paints -1.5 3.4 -7.3 Metals 0.1 -2.0 -14.1
Britannia 0.0 -4.7 36.9 Hindalco 1.5 -8.7 -34.5
Colgate-Palm. 1.1 4.6 -0.5 Hind. Zinc 0.8 1.4 3.0
Dabur -0.1 -0.1 3.1 JSPL 0.0 -4.2 9.0
Emami -0.5 -6.0 -21.2 JSW Steel 0.8 -4.8 -5.2
Godrej Cons. 0.0 1.9 38.2 Nalco -0.7 -5.6 -37.1
HUL 0.4 -0.2 25.6 NMDC -0.7 -5.2 2.4
ITC 0.7 -1.9 50.9 SAIL 1.0 1.1 -16.7
Indigo Paints -0.5 0.7 -33.2 Tata Steel 0.0 -6.3 -21.2
Jyothy Lab -0.1 -3.7 30.0 Vedanta -4.9 -10.4 -33.6
Marico -1.0 -4.4 -1.1 Oil & Gas 0.0 2.8 -4.5
Nestle 1.1 2.0 9.6 Aegis Logistics 6.1 12.4 95.3
Page Inds -2.9 -1.6 -10.7 BPCL -1.0 8.6 -4.9
Pidilite Ind. -0.4 4.5 -2.5 Castrol India 0.8 -7.6 5.3
P&G Hygiene -0.9 1.1 -9.7 GAIL -0.4 7.1 9.8
Tata Consumer -0.5 -1.3 -5.5 Gujarat Gas -0.8 -2.5 -1.9
United Brew -0.3 -0.6 0.0 Gujarat St. Pet. 1.9 1.3 1.7
United Spirits -1.0 3.6 -15.0 HPCL -1.1 9.2 -14.7
Varun Beverages 0.0 4.0 106.0 IOC -0.7 2.3 -2.4
Healthcare 0.2 -1.6 -13.2 IGL -0.2 1.3 17.5
Alembic Phar -1.4 -6.8 -33.7 Mahanagar Gas -0.6 11.2 26.3
Alkem Lab -2.0 -3.9 -13.6 MRPL -0.9 4.9 27.7
Apollo Hospitals -0.2 -4.0 -7.3 Oil India 2.5 4.5 11.9
Ajanta Pharma 1.0 5.0 -5.5 ONGC 0.8 -1.3 -13.0
Aurobindo 1.5 3.9 -29.8 PLNG -1.3 4.4 17.0
Biocon 1.6 -5.9 -38.6 Reliance Ind. -1.3 -5.1 -11.5
Zydus Lifesci. 0.8 3.1 31.3 Real Estate -1.1 2.0 -11.7
Cipla 0.7 -9.5 -14.3 Brigade Enterpr. -0.2 -3.0 -9.4
Divis Lab 0.4 -2.5 -38.5 DLF -0.2 7.2 3.0
Dr Reddy’s -0.6 -0.1 7.8 Godrej Propert. -1.7 -2.2 -31.6
ERIS Lifescience 0.2 -10.8 -20.8 Mahindra Life. 1.7 -9.8 2.0
Gland Pharma 4.0 -1.6 -60.5 Macrotech Devel. -1.4 5.0 -20.9
Glenmark 0.1 -2.6 -3.7 Oberoi Realty Ltd -0.8 2.0 -7.1
GSK Pharma 1.0 -0.4 -16.9 Sobha -3.6 -24.3 -40.0
IPCA Labs 0.4 -4.3 -20.8 Phoenix Mills -3.4 0.5 27.5
Laurus Labs -0.7 -4.2 -49.9 Prestige Estates 2.1 3.9 -9.8
Lupin -1.6 -1.5 -13.2 Retail
Piramal Pharma 2.0 -15.9 Aditya Bir. Fas. -2.3 -8.5 -26.8
Solara Active 0.8 -0.7 -47.3 Avenue Super. 0.2 -3.1 -17.6
Sun Pharma 0.6 0.5 8.5 Bata India 0.4 -0.2 -26.4
Campus Activewe. -0.9 -1.7

24 March 2023 19
Index and MOFSL Universe stock performance

Company 1 Day (%) 1M (%) 12M (%)


Barbeque-Nation 1.5 -7.6 -48.0
Devyani Intl. -0.6 -5.4 -17.3
Jubilant Food -0.3 1.2 -15.4
Metro Brands -0.4 -8.1 37.4
Relaxo Footwear -0.8 7.1 -20.9
Restaurant Brand -1.5 -7.2 -11.0
Sapphire Foods -0.4 -2.5 -10.1
Shoppers St. 0.3 0.3 48.1
Titan Co. 0.4 5.2 -6.4
Trent 1.2 1.3 3.5
V-Mart Retail -0.7 -7.5 -37.7
Westlife Food -0.1 2.4 52.3
Technology -0.8 -8.5 -22.4
Cyient -0.4 -3.7 0.5
HCL Tech. -1.4 -2.6 -9.6
Infosys -1.1 -11.4 -26.6
LTIMindtree -1.1 -5.2 -24.3
L&T Technology -1.4 -9.3 -31.5
Mphasis -1.0 -18.4 -45.0
Coforge 0.3 -15.2 -15.4
Persistent Sys -1.4 -10.9 -1.3
TCS -0.2 -8.5 -15.8
Tech Mah 0.1 -2.6 -28.7
Wipro -1.3 -8.2 -40.8
Zensar Tech -1.9 -11.1 -30.3
Telecom 0.4 -3.0 -12.8
Bharti Airtel 1.0 0.0 8.2
Indus Towers 0.1 -13.0 -29.4
Idea Cellular -1.7 -3.7 -35.7
Tata Comm 1.7 1.3 3.1
Utiltites 0.7 11.4 -7.4
Coal India -0.3 -0.7 16.6
NTPC 0.0 2.9 30.8
Power Grid Corpn -0.9 4.1 5.7
Others
APL Apollo Tubes 4.6 -1.4 36.7
BSE -0.5 -1.7 -53.7
Coromandel Intl 3.2 0.9 9.0
EPL Ltd -1.6 -4.8 0.2
Indiamart Inter. -1.9 3.2 9.9
Godrej Agrovet -1.8 -6.5 -10.5
Indian Hotels -0.4 1.8 45.3
Interglobe 1.0 2.3 4.2
Info Edge 0.3 0.3 -24.0
Kaveri Seed 1.6 0.0 -4.5
Lemon Tree Hotel -1.5 0.9 32.3
MCX -0.7 9.0 7.4
Piramal Enterp. -1.0 -16.1 -45.0
PI Inds. -1.0 -6.5 7.9
Quess Corp 0.4 -7.0 -37.9
SIS 0.9 -2.4 -26.5
SRF 0.0 6.2 -8.2
Tata Chemicals 0.7 -0.5 0.7
Team Lease Serv. 0.1 -9.9 -40.6
Trident -0.9 -11.1 -47.6
UPL -0.9 -4.8 -10.6

24 March 2023 20
NOTES

24 March 2023 21
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY >=15%
SELL < - 10%
NEUTRAL > - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation
consistent with the investment rating legend.
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24 March 2023 22

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