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Partial Equilibrium Analysis Part I A Basic Partial Equilibrium Model
Partial Equilibrium Analysis Part I A Basic Partial Equilibrium Model
John Gilbert
Professor
Department of Economics and Finance
Jon M. Huntsman School of Business
Utah State University
jgilbert@usu.edu
While some of the indices that we have discussed are used ex ante,
such as the complementarity index, the primary purpose of most
indices is ex post evaluation.
When we are faced with evaluating a policy that has not yet been
implemented, we generally turn to simulation methods.
This type of approach places a much stronger emphasis on the use
of economic theory, alongside data, to generate policy information.
The two main types of simulation models used in evaluating trade
policy are partial and general equilibrium models.
In the next set of sessions we will consider partial equilibrium models.
Partial equilibrium is just the technical terms for demand and supply
analysis.
Partial equilibrium models consider only one market at a time,
ignoring potential interactions across markets.
It is strictly valid only under some limited circumstances (certain
restrictions on demand and the assumption that the sector in
question is small relative to the economic system as a whole), which
may not always hold in practice, but may be reasonable
approximations.
These types of models allow us to predict changes in key economic
variables of interest, including prices, the volume of trade, revenue,
and measures of economic efficiency.
XS
PM
PX ×T
100
PX
MD
QT
M=X
XS
PM
PX 0 ×T 0 PM 0
100
PX 0
PX
MD
QT
M=X
M0 = X 0
M = αM PM ε
X = αX PX η
X =M
Finally, the tariff wedge between the import and export price is given
by:
PM = PX (1 + T /100)
T is the ad valorem tariff rate, expressed as a percentage.
Given the parameter values αM , αX , ε and η, and the policy variable
T , we have a system of four equations in four unknowns, PM, PX ,
M and X .
Note that we can use separate price and volume data if available.
Otherwise we just use the value and a price of one.
Exploring the Code: Open the files 09 PE.gms (the code). We will
simulate cutting the tariff in half.
Verify that the results are not dependent on the price normalization.
See how the results change for different changes in the tariff rate.
For given changes in the tariff rate, see how the results change as
the elasticity parameters are varied.
See if you can calibrate the model to data for another
sector/country to simulate the effect of tariff reforms.