International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

International Journal of Transportation

Science and Technology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijtst

Evaluation of pavement service life using AASHTO 1972 and

mechanistic-empirical pavement design guides
Fahim Ahmed a, Jay Thompson b, Dahae Kim c, Nathan Huynh a,⇑,1, Eric Carroll c
a
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, United States
b
Construction Engineering and Inspections Manager, SEPI, Inc., Charleston, SC 29407, United States
c
South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT), Columbia, SC 29201, United States

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Service life is often used by state transportation agencies to evaluate alternative flexible
Received 8 September 2021 pavement designs. The design that keeps the pavement in acceptable condition longest
Received in revised form 10 November 2021 before it needs another maintenance treatment is the preferred design. For a given rehabil-
Accepted 26 November 2021
itation design, this study evaluates the pavement service life using AASHTO 1972 pave-
Available online 01 December 2021
ment design guide and mechanistic-empirical (M-E) pavement design guide. The service
life here is referred as the duration from last completed rehabilitation to the next mainte-
Keywords:
nance treatment. The goal is not to determine which method is better, but rather, it is to
Pavement service life
AASHTO 1972 design guide
understand how their estimated service lives differ and what factors contribute to their dif-
Mechanistic-empirical design guide ferences. To perform the evaluation, rehabilitation designs developed by the SCDOT for a
research project are used. These designs take into account existing pavement distresses
obtained through field investigation of 28 actual rehabilitation projects on primary routes.
Service life is determined using MAP-21 criteria for good and fair pavements. Analysis
results indicated that (1) the predicted service life using the M-E method has lower varia-
tion than the AASHTO 1972 method and is affected by the location (rural vs. urban) of the
routes, (2) the predicted service life using the AASHTO 1972 method is generally lower
than that of the M-E method and is affected by the difference between the design structural
number (SN) and required SN, (3) the M-E service life for good pavement is generally
longer for routes that include CMRB design and the percentage of trucks lower than 10%,
and (4) the AASHTO 1972 service life is higher if the existing SN is already exceeding the
required SN from the previous maintenance.
Ó 2022 Tongji University and Tongji University Press. Publishing Services by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction

The South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT), like other state transportation agencies, uses a proactive
approach to preserve its highway system. Annually, it reviews the number of miles in its system that fall into preservation,
rehabilitation, and reconstruction categories and selects projects in each category based on a balanced approach that

Peer review under responsibility of Tongji University and Tongji University Press.
⇑ Corresponding author at: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Carolina, 300 Main St, Columbia, SC 29208, United
States.
E-mail address: nathan.huynh@sc.edu (N. Huynh).
1
ORCID: 0000-0002-4605-5651.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijtst.2021.11.004
2046-0430/Ó 2022 Tongji University and Tongji University Press. Publishing Services by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
F. Ahmed, J. Thompson, D. Kim et al. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

considers risks and asset performance. Based on findings from a recently completed research project that it sponsored
(Ahmed et al., 2021), the SCDOT is considering conducting field investigation for all rehabilitation projects on primary routes,
which are non-interstate routes that carry between 5000 and 10,000 vehicles per day. By conducting field investigation, it
would allow the SCDOT pavement engineers to determine the true functional and structural condition of the pavement.
Equipped with this information, they would be able to develop better rehabilitation designs than without this knowledge.
To evaluate alternative designs, an important metric that the SCDOT uses for the selection of preferred design is service life.
In this study, service life refers to the duration from when the pavement was rehabilitated to the time it needs another main-
tenance treatment. The research question dealt with in this study is how different is the expected service life produced by
the AASHTO 1972, 1972 (referred to as ‘‘AASHTO 1972” hereafter) and the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide
(ARA, 2004) (referred to as ‘‘M-E” hereafter). It should be noted that the SCDOT’s current pavement design procedure is based
on the AASHTO 1972 Design Guide. No part of their current pavement design practice involves the use of the M-E method.
However, the agency is interested in exploring the potential use of the M-E method to predict how long a pavement would
last after rehabilitation before the distresses reach the point where it needs another maintenance treatment.
Although the AASHTO 1972 method has served the construction industry for over 50 years, its limitations are well rec-
ognized. The developed empirical relationships are limited to the data and test conditions from the road test. As a result,
it is difficult to adapt these empirical relationships for different materials, traffic and vehicle characteristics, construction
procedure, and environmental conditions. The other major shortcoming is that it does not consider the existing distresses
in the pavement structure. The limitations of the AASHTO 1972 method has led to the development of the M-E method,
developed under the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP 1–37 A) and is being used by a growing num-
ber of state transportation agencies in the United States (Li et al., 2011, Robbins et al., 2017). This method first applies the
principles of engineering mechanics to calculate critical pavement mechanistic responses (i.e., stress, strain, and deflection)
and then uses empirical distress models to translate the responses to pavement functional (i.e., roughness) and structural
performance (i.e., deformation, fatigue and thermal cracking). This method also mechanistically determines the thermal
and moisture distribution, and it requires traffic to be input as load spectra (i.e., distribution of loading for different vehicle
classes and different axle types) instead of ESALs like the AASHTO 1972 method. As a result, it requires significantly more
inputs from the design engineer, including traffic, climate, pavement structure and material properties. Similar to the
AASHTO 1972 method, the M-E method allows the user to design a new pavement or evaluate an existing pavement. The
key difference is that the M-E method considers multiple performance criteria (e.g., roughness, rutting, cracking) instead
of just Present Serviceability Index (PSI) in the AASHTO 1972 method.
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the service life of pavement rehabilitation designs using AASHTO 1972 and M-E
method. Figs. 1 and 2 provide an overview of the analysis performed using these two methods. Two types of comparisons
(i.e., analysis I & analysis II) are conducted for this study. As shown in Fig. 1, the analysis I compares the service life of pave-
ment for a given rehabilitation design (i.e., design with investigation) to maintain the pavement in good or fair condition. As
shown in Fig. 2, the analysis II compares the service life of pavements for two types of rehabilitation designs (i.e., designs
with and without investigation) in fair condition. The goal is not to determine which method is better, but rather, it is to
understand how they differ and what factors contribute to their differences. To perform the evaluation, rehabilitation
designs with investigation developed by the SCDOT for a research project are used. These designs take into account of exist-
ing pavement distresses obtained through field investigation of 28 actual rehabilitation projects on primary routes. The reha-
bilitation designs without investigation are developed by the district contract engineers for the same 28 primary routes.

Fig. 1. Study design for analysis 1.

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F. Ahmed, J. Thompson, D. Kim et al. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

Fig. 2. Study design for analysis II.

For both rehabilitation designs, with and without investigations, the service life is determined for good and/or fair pave-
ments using MAP-21 criteria (Visintine et al., 2018). Specifically, for good pavements, a threshold of <95 inch per mile is used
for IRI and 5% is used for fatigue cracking. For fair pavements, the corresponding threshold values are <170 inch per mile and
20%. Since the AASHTO 1972 method deals with PSI, Eq. (1) is used to convert IRI to PSI to provide a comparable measure for
evaluation. Eq. (1) is the actual method being used by the SCDOT to determine PSI (index from 0 to 5 where 5 is best) for a
given measured IRI.

PSI ¼ 5  eð0:004IRIÞ ð1Þ

Using Eq. (1), the IRI value of 95 inch per mile corresponds to a PSI value of 3.42 and the IRI value of 170 inch per mile
corresponds to a PSI value of 2.53. From these PSI values, the pavement service life can be determined using the AASHTO
1972 pavement design equation. For the M-E method, the AASHTOWare Pavement M-E software (AASHTOWare
Pavement ME Design, 2019) is used, and the service life is the minimum duration in which the pavement’s predicted IRI
or fatigue cracking remains below the thresholds.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the literature related to this study. Section 3 describes the
characteristics of the routes used in the analysis. Section 4 presents the study methodology. Section 5 discusses the results
from the evaluation of pavement service life computed using the AASHTO 1972 and M-E methods. Lastly, Section 6 provides
concluding remarks.

2. Literature review

Service life of pavements is affected by environmental factors and traffic loadings. The effect of temperature on pavement
service life was explored by Qiao et al. (2013) using the M-E method and data from Washington State, Minnesota, and Vir-
ginia. The authors found that the rutting of asphalt concrete (AC) is accelerated when there is an increase in temperature and
variation in temperature, and as a result, reduced the service life of pavements in Virginia. In addition to temperature, Zuo,
Drumm, and Meier (2007) also studied the effect of moisture content on pavement service life. Their study found that
increasing the length of average temperature interval (i.e., hourly vs. daily vs. monthly) increased pavement service life,
but wet subgrade reduced pavement service life. Knott et al. (2017) explored the effect of rise of groundwater on pavements
near coastal regions of New Hampshire. In the event of groundwater rise from sea level, the thickness of structure and cur-
rent level of groundwater were found to have an impact on the pavement service life. In their study, pavement failure
occurred due to fatigue cracking for all the scenarios.
Rys, Judycki, and Jaskula (2016) found that not only traffic loads reduced the pavement service life, but also the axle load
distribution. Specifically, it was found that the load equivalency factor is well correlated with percentage of overloaded vehi-
cles and characteristics of axle load distribution. The authors pointed out that a 10% reduction in overloaded vehicles
increased the service life of pavement by 4–6 years. Analyzing the sensitivity of traffic load spectra using M-E method,
Zhao, Tan, and Zhou (2012) found that rutting distress is less sensitive to variation of axle load distribution among three
types of pavement distress (i.e., rutting, top-down fatigue cracking, and bottom-up fatigue cracking).
A number of studies have investigated techniques for extending pavement service life. The majority of these studies
examined pavement preservation treatment. Crack sealing was explored by Ponniah and Kennepohl (1996) for Ministry
of Transportation, Canada to extend the service life of pavements. The results from their study indicated that when
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F. Ahmed, J. Thompson, D. Kim et al. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

appropriate sealant was applied following the prescribed application procedure, the asphalt pavement service life was
extended by at least 2 years. A more recent study by Vargas-Nordcbeck and Jalali (2020) revealed that the benefit of crack
sealing and filling was related to pretreatment condition of the pavement. Their study found that application of crack sealing
and filling increased the pavement service life from 1.1 to 7.3 years for fair (5%  area cracked  20%) and poor (area
cracked > 20%) pavements. Furthermore, if crack sealing was used in combination with chip seal, the pavement service life
was extended by 2 years for good (area cracked < 5%), and 1.5 years for fair and poor pavements. Studies from Epps and
Monismith (1972), and Finn and Epps (1980) indicated that a one percent reduction in in-place air voids extended the pave-
ment service life by 10%. Tran et al. (2016) suggested state transportation agencies to use field compaction to reduce the
compaction target by one percent to extend the service life of pavements. Aragão et al. (2021) proposed the use of metallic
waste (10% by volume of bitumen) and asphalt concrete as crack healing mixture to increase pavement service life.
The survey conducted by FHWA in 2004 (FHWA, 2004) indicated that the majority (41 out of 48) of the state transportation
agencies used the AASHTO 1972 pavement design guide at the time but nearly half (20 out of 48) indicated they plan to tran-
sition to the new M-E method. A number of state transportation agencies are participating in local calibration efforts (Robbins
et al., 2017). Some of these agencies may use the M-E method in the future if it is found to be suitable. A number of studies have
compared the difference between pavement layer thicknesses produced by the AASHTO and M-E design; there are also studies
that have quantified the difference in the performance, such as fatigue cracking, alligator cracking, and rutting depth, of their
respective designs. In-service pavements that were designed according to the procedure of Idaho Department of Transportation
(ITD) were redesigned using AASHTO 1993 and M-E methods (El-Badawy et al., 2011). The results showed that thickness of
asphalt layer was related to the input of percentage of reliability in M-E software. A thicker AC using M-E method was found
compared to ITD and AASHTO methods when analyzed at higher reliability level (85%). Flexible pavements designed using
Alberta Transportation Pavement Design (ATPD) and M-E were compared by Saha et al. (2014). Among all the pavement sec-
tions explored in their study, the total rutting threshold specified in the M-E software was met only when the subgrade material
was strong and the traffic level was low. Pavement sections that were originally designed using ATPD procedure and redesigned
using the M-E method for evaluation were found to fail due to excessive International Roughness Index (IRI).
Carvalho and Schwartz (2006) developed pavement designs using AASHTO 1993 method for different environmental con-
ditions, material properties, and traffic levels. The results showed that this method had considerable variation for rutting and
fatigue cracking when evaluated using M-E method. In addition, this study concluded that the AASHTO 1993 method under-
estimates pavement distresses when the temperature is warm compared to the M-E method. For the M-E method, the pave-
ment design differs according to the assigned input level. When the M-E input level 1 design was compared to the AASHTO
1993 design, Elfino et al. (2010) found that the M-E design required thinner pavement thickness than that of AASHTO 1993
method for the same design life.
A couple of studies have explored the use of M-E technique for pavement rehabilitation. Mandapaka et al. (2012) used
CalME and life-cycle cost to evaluate and select the optimal maintenance and rehabilitation strategy for flexible pavement.
CalME is AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design that uses Caltrans calibrated parameters. In addition to developing time-based
rehabilitation strategies, Nobakht et al. (2018) used M-E to determine the structural life of different rehabilitation design
alternatives for national highways in Oklahoma.
To the best of authors’ knowledge, this paper contributes to the current body of work on the use of the M-E method to
determine pavement service life of rehabilitation designs for flexible pavements and to evaluate how this estimated pave-
ment service life is different from the AASHTO 1972 method. Specifically, it uses the AASHTOWare Pavement ME software
with level 2 input to predict a pavement’s IRI and fatigue cracking for rehabilitation designs, with and without investigation
that accounted for existing distresses. The time that these distresses remain below the specified thresholds constitutes the
pavement service life. The aim is to understand how estimated pavement service lives differ using AASHTO and M-E design
methods and what factors contribute to their differences.

3. Data description

Data from 28 actual rehabilitation projects on primary routes in South Carolina were used in this study. The lengths of
these projects and their roadway characteristics are provided in Table 1. These routes were selected from a pool of projects
based on average annual daily traffic (AADT), truck traffic, and functional class to provide a representative sample of primary
routes in South Carolina. It should be noted that the selected projects are located in various districts throughout the state. In
Table 1, AADTT refers to Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic. To simplify the task of dealing with mixed traffic for Equivalent
Single Axle Load (ESAL) calculation, the SCDOT uses a set of Road Groups based on the typical mix of traffic on different types
of roads; details can be found in the SCDOT design manual (SCDOT, 2008).

4. Study methodology

4.1. Rehabilitation design without field investigation

The SCDOT in-house Pavement Estimator is used to determine the rehabilitation design (without field investigation) for
the 28 routes shown in Table 1. The Pavement Estimator program is based on AASHTO 1972 equation and has three sections.
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F. Ahmed, J. Thompson, D. Kim et al. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

Table 1
SCDOT rehabilitation projects used in the study.

Route ID Lane-miles Functional classification AADT AADTT Truck (%) Road Group
1 3.00 RPA 18,500 2035 11.0 J
2 0.05 UMC 42,800 7276 17.0 I
3 0.91 UPA 31,200 5616 18.0 I
4 0.98 UMC 3100 1686 54.4 K
5 7.43 RPA 11,700 702 6.0 J
6 10.43 RPA 14,900 745 5.0 J
7 2.40 RPA 8600 2064 24.0 J
8 4.59 RMA 6700 536 8.0 J
9 7.38 RMA 3800 304 8.0 J
10 14.20 RMA 6900 552 8.0 J
11 0.29 RPA 2200 933 42.4 J
12 0.22 UPA 21,100 3927 18.6 I
13 0.21 UMA 6300 504 8.0 H
14 0.62 UMA 3500 228 6.5 I
15 0.37 UPA 28,700 1280 4.5 I
16 0.83 RMA 4500 360 8.0 J
17 0.46 UMA 7500 638 8.5 H
18 4.27 RPA 36,700 4771 13.0 I
19 10.00 RMA 8900 739 8.3 J
20 20.00 RPA 11,300 1582 14.0 J
21 2.78 RMA 16,500 1700 10.3 J
22 1.40 RMA 3000 618 20.6 J
23 9.87 RMA 7100 632 8.9 J
24 2.00 RPA 12,300 3321 27.0 I
25 2.00 RPA 12,300 3321 27.0 I
26 10.00 RMA 5100 408 8.0 J
27 9.11 RMA 9000 720 8.0 J
28 10.00 RPA 3700 1369 37.0 J

* RMA = Rural Minor Arterial; RPA = Rural Principal Arterial; UMC = Urban Minor Collector; UPA = Urban Principal Arterial; UMA = Urban Minor Arterial.

The first section requires inputs for basic information such as county name, road number, road name, number of lanes,
from and to mile marker, and road length. When a county name is selected, the program selects a corresponding soil support
value (SSV). The second section requires information about traffic, particularly the average daily traffic (ADT), expressed in
vehicles per day. The third section requires information about the pavement condition, specifically the pavement structure
type, surface condition, and thickness of various pavement layers, as well as base material type. This information is used to
calculate the structural number (SN) of the existing pavement. Other information required in the third section includes pave-
ment surface layer age and the percentage of full-depth patching required. It should be noted that in practice, the district engi-
neer has the discretion to deviate from the Pavement Estimator recommended rehabilitation design.

4.2. Rehabilitation design with field investigation

The SCDOT performed a set of tests and observations as a part of the field investigation to assess the condition of the
pavements prior to their rehabilitation. The field investigation performed included a visual assessment of pavement surface
condition, taking core samples, and performing FWD testing. The derived data from visual assessment were distress evalu-
ation, percentage of cracking, rutting, and drainage. Core samples were used to identify crack depth, crack type and pave-
ment depth to determine the most appropriate rehabilitation design. FWD testing was performed using a Dynatest 8000
machine to collect deflection data for varying loads as measured by sensors. Deflection data were then used to determine
the existing SN and subgrade modulus utilizing the SCDOT’s in-house back-calculation software.
To determine the most appropriate rehabilitation design (using the derived data from field investigation), first, the
required SN was obtained using a modified version of the 1972 edition of AASHTO guidelines for pavement design as pro-
vided in the 2008 SCDOT Pavement Design Guide. Then, the rehabilitation design was developed to provide sufficient struc-
ture (i.e., SN) by adding any required asphalt overlay and address existing distresses.
The existing, required, and resulting SNs are shown in Table 2; the term ‘‘resulting SN” refers to the SN value of the pave-
ment after the rehabilitation. The resulting SNs are calculated as follows using the SCDOT’s depreciation coefficients (SCDOT,
2008).
Resulting SN ¼ Existing SN  ðthickness  coefficientÞ
For example, if the rehabilitation design is ‘‘Mill 2 inches” and the existing SN is 4, then the above equation would be
applied as follows.
Resulting SN ¼ 4:0  ð2  0:26Þ ¼ 3:48

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F. Ahmed, J. Thompson, D. Kim et al. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

Table 2
10-year rehabilitation designs with and without field investigation.

Route ID Extg. AC SSV Extg. SN Req. SN Resulting SN Rehabilitation Designs

(inch)
With Without With inves. Without inves.
inves. inves.
1 7.0 2.9 3.28 4.14 4.36 4.68 Mill 200 ; 800 FDP 15% 800 FDP 11%
200 psy Surf B; 200 psy Int B 150 psy Surf C; 200 psy Surf C
2 12.3 3.8 4.75 4.87 5.03 5.03 Mill 200 Mill 200
200 psy Surf B 200 psy Surf B
3 8.8 3.0 2.93 4.65 4.63 4.01 800 FDP 15%; Mill 200 Mill 200
200 psy Surf B; 400 psy Int B 200 psy Surf B; 200 psy Int B
4 5.1 3.8 2.16 3.77 3.82 3.76 1200 CMRB; 175 psy Surf C 200 psy Surf B; 200 psy Int Surf B
5 9.08 1.0 3.72 4.48 4.52 4.70 800 FDP 10% Mill 200
200 psy Surf B 175 psy Surf C; 200 psy Int surf C
6 5.3 1.7 3.62 4.10 3.90 5.32 Mill 200 ; 200 psy Surf B Mill 200 ; 600 psy Surf B
7 9.1 1.7 4.71 4.78 4.99 6.41 Mill 200 ; 200 psy Sur B Mill 200 ; 600 psy Surf B
8 10.5 1.5 2.73 4.09 4.62 3.92 1200 CMRB 1200 CMRB
200 psy int Surf B; 175 psy Surf B 200 psy int Surf B
9 5.8 1.8 2.47 3.72 4.10 3.51 1000 CMRB Mil 200
200 Int Surf B; 175 psy Surf C 800 FDP 10%; 440 psy Surf B
10 14.0 1.5 4.51 4.20 4.32 4.62 1200 CMRB 800 FDP 10%
300 psy Surf B 220 psy Surf B
11 13.1 1.4 3.84 4.58 4.52 4.67 Mill 400 ; 800 FDP 10% 800 FDP 10%
200 psy Surf C; 240 psy Int C 150 psy Surf B; 200 psy Int Surf C
12 10.4 1.2 3.95 5.44 5.49 4.72 Mill 200 ; 800 FDP 10% 800 FDP 10%; 200 psy Surf B
350 psy Surf B; 200 psy Int B
13 9.4 1.0 3.21 4.28 4.32 3.98 1200 CMRB 200 psy Surf B
150 psy Surf B; 150 psy Surf B
14 5.8 1.0 2.12 3.89 3.92 2.38 1200 CMRB Mill 1.500
200 psy Surf C 800 FDP 10%;175 psy Surf C
15 13.6 1.4 5.40 4.36 5.68 5.71 Mill 200 ; 200 psy Surf B Mill 1.7500 ; 200 psy Surf B
16 7.9 1.0 2.07 4.21 4.52 4.46 1200 CMRB Mill 2 ‘‘; 1200 CMRB
150 psy Surf C; 200 psy Int Surf C 175 psy Surf B; 175 psy Surf B
17 11.1 1.5 4.57 3.89 5.13 4.88 Mill 400 ; 800 FDP 10% Mill 1.7500
200 psy Surf B; 200 psy surf B 200 psy Surf B
18 4.0 2.5 5.63 4.96 5.91 6.19 Mill 200 ; 800 FDP 10% Mill 400 ; 800 FDP 10%
200 psy Surf B 200 psy Surf B; 200 psy Surf B
19 9.8 2.0 2.81 4.13 4.41 2.81 600 FDP 10% Microsurfacing
200 Int Surf B; 200 psy Surf B
20 7.0 4.1 2.86 3.44 3.54 3.21 Mill 200 Mill 1.7500
150 psy surf B; 150 psy surf B 200 psy Surf B
21 9.9 3.0 4.7 4.11 4.70 4.98 Do nothing Mill 200 ; 200 psy Surf B
22 4.9 3.0 2.67 3.55 3.58 2.67 800 CMRB Microsurfacing
175 psy Surf C; 200 int Surf C
23 7.8 2.2 2.98 3.94 4.10 3.33 1000 CMRB Mill 1.7500
175 Surf B; 200 Int Surf B 200 psy Surf B
24 19.5 3.0 7.4 4.50 4.62 7.40 1200 CMRB Mill 200
200 psy Int Surf B; 175 psy Surf B 800 FDP 10%; 200 psy Surf B
25 10.4 3.0 5.63 4.50 5.39 5.63 400 Mill Mill 200
200 psy Surf B 800 FDP 10%; 200 psy Surf B
26 7.3 2.0 3.1 3.79 3.70 3.90 150 psy Surf C 600 FDP 10%; 200 psy Surf B
27 12.6 2.2 5.47 4.01 5.23 6.27 Do nothing 600 FDP 10%; 200 psy Surf B
28 14.8 3.0 4.97 3.99 5.33 6.05 Mill 200 Mill 200
800 FDP 10%; 800 FDP 10%
200 psy Surf B 200 psy Surf B; 200 psy Surf B

psy: pound per square yard; FDP = Full Depth Patching; CMRB = Cement Modified Recycled Base. Extg. = existing, .inves. = field investigation; Unit conversion: 1
inch = 0.0254 meter; 1 psy = 0.54 kg/m2.

Note that the applicable coefficient for this example is 0.26 per inch. The rehabilitation design resulting SN is higher than
the required SN for the majority of the routes (24 out of 28). There are 9 routes out of 28 that have existing SN greater than
the required SN (i.e., 10, 15, 17, 18, 21, 24, 25, 27, 28). In practice, these routes were selected using a set of criteria (e.g., IRI,
distresses, AADT) and the existing SN were not known; it was only for a research project that the SCDOT performed field
investigation to determine the existing SN on these routes. Note that in Table 2, the rehabilitation designs were performed
as part of a research project and are different from the actual treatment applied by the contractors. ‘‘Surface B” and ‘‘Inter-
mediate B” are material used by the SCDOT on primary routes and high-volume secondary routes (more than 5000 veh/day).
‘‘Surface C” is of lower quality and used on low-volume primary routes and high-volume secondary routes (5,000 veh/day or
less). Intermediate type C is suggested to be used with surface type C, but it could also be used with surface type B.

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F. Ahmed, J. Thompson, D. Kim et al. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

4.3. Determination of service life using AASHTO 1972 method

For the AASHTO 1972 method, the pavement service life was calculated using Eq. (2) for a given design.

Design W 18
Serv ice Life ðSLÞ ¼ ð2Þ
Projected Yearly W 18
The projected yearly ESALs was calculated using Eq. (3) and the design ESALs was calculated using the AASHTO 1972
pavement equation (AASHTO, 1972) as shown in Eq. (4):

ð1 þ GF ÞDL  1
W 18 ¼ AADT  365  TP  RdF  DF  LF  ð3Þ
GF  DL
where

W18 = 18-kip equivalent single-axle loads

TP = Percentage of truck
RdF = Road group Factor
DF = Directional Factor
LF = Lane Factor
GF = Growth Factor
DL = Design Life

4:2PSI
log½4:21:5  1
log10 W 18 ¼ 9:36logðSNB þ 1Þ  0:20 þ þ logð Þ þ 0:372ðSSV  3:0Þ ð4Þ
0:40 þ ½ðSN1094
þ1Þ5:19
 R
B

where

PSI = Present Serviceability Index (PSI)

R = Regional factor
SSV = Soil Support Value
SNB = SN value at the start/beginning of the pavement service life, after rehabilitation

The service life of good and fair pavements was determined considering when the pavement needs to be treated since it
was last rehabilitated. The terminal PSI was used as the criterion for determining when pavement maintenance treatment
should be applied. The chosen terminal PSI values for good and fair pavements were 3.42 and 2.53, respectively. To illustrate
the application of Eqs. (2) to (4), suppose AADT = 3100, TP = 54%, RdF = 0.6398, DF = 0.5, LF = 1.0, GF = 1.6%, DL = 10 years, and
terminal PSI = 3.42. Using these values, the projected yearly W18 using Eq. (3) is 210,153 ESALs, and the design W18 using Eq.
(4) is 1,616,938 ESALs. Hence, the service life via Eq. (2) is 7.7 years.

4.4. Determination of service life using M-E method

For the M-E method, the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software was used to determine the pavement service life.
The software requires information about the overall condition (i.e., pavement structure definition, layer properties, and reha-
bilitation strategy) of the existing pavement in order to evaluate a given rehabilitation designs. AASHTOWare Pavement ME
Deflection Data Analysis and Backcalculation Tool (referred to as Backcalculation tool hereafter) was used to generate back-
calculation inputs to the Pavement ME Design software. The analysis in Backcalculation tool consists of three phases: pre-
processing of the FWD deflection data, backcalculation, and post-processing of the results. Screenshots of these processes are
shown in Fig. 3.
In the pre-processing phase, the Backcalculation tool requires an input file for the deflection data as shown in Fig. 3(a).
The FWD data obtained from field investigation was provided in this step. Using the provided FWD data, the Backcalculation
tool automatically generates segments along the route length.
In the backcalculation phase, the user inputs the properties of pavement layer structure. As shown in Fig. 3(b), the
Backcalculation tool requires inputs for number of layers, type of layer and layer thickness. This information was obtained
from the core samples taken for each route as a part of the field investigation. The Backcalculation tool uses these inputs to
backcalculate the moduli values for each pavement layer.
In the post-processing phase, the Backcalculation tool shows the estimated layer property values. For the example route
shown in Fig. 3(c), the average modulus for the asphalt, base, and subgrade layers are 400 ksi (2757.90 MPa), 20 ksi
(137.90 MPa), and 36.4 ksi (250.97 MPa), respectively. In this phase, the Backcalculation tool requires the user to specify
the materials for each layer type and the type of rehabilitation strategy for the existing flexible pavement. For all the routes
considered in this study, the material type for AC layer was selected as ‘‘Asphalt Concrete” since they all have flexible pave-
ments. The type of material (i.e., soil type) for base and subgrade to be inputted for each route depends on its location and
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Fig. 3. Input screen of (a) pre-processing phase, (b) backcalculation phase, (c) post-processing phase of backcalculation tool.

this information was provided by the SCDOT. The Backcalculation tool requires input for the rehabilitation strategy of the
existing flexible pavement. As shown in Fig. 3c, the rehabilitation strategy selected for the example route is AC over AC
and this rehabilitation strategy was selected for all the routes in good and fair pavement condition. Lastly, the Backcalcula-
tion tool outputs a Pavement ME Design file with pavement layer definition, layer properties, and information regarding
rehabilitation strategy.
Given the Pavement ME Design file generated by the Backcalculation tool, the AASHTOWare Pavement ME software can
then be used to determine the service life of the pavement for a given rehabilitation design. Fig. 4 shows a screenshot of
pavement ME Design software user interface, which has five panes: the explorer pane, project tab, project tab: general infor-
mation, performance criteria, output/error list pane, and progress pane.
In the general information page under the project tab, as shown in Fig. 4, values for design type, pavement type, and
design life for each route need to be specified. For all the routes, the design type, and pavement type were selected as ‘‘Over-
lay”, and ‘‘AC over AC”, respectively. Note that this information is loaded as rehabilitation strategy from the ME design output
file from Backcalculation tool. This page also requires the timeline for base construction and pavement construction. It was
assumed that rehabilitation is performed in year 2020 and the base construction is 30-years old (i.e., year 1990). As shown in
Fig. 4, the default values for month were used for both pavement and base construction timeline.
In the Performance Criteria pane, as shown in Fig. 5, users can set threshold values for different pavement performance
criteria. In this study, terminal IRI and AC total fatigue cracking (i.e., AC bottom up and reflecting cracking) were used as per-
formance criteria to determine the service life of pavements. The IRI represents the rideability condition whereas the fatigue
cracking represents the distress condition in the pavements. As noted in the introduction, for good pavements, the chosen
threshold values for terminal IRI was 95 inch per mile and AC total fatigue cracking was 5%. Similarly, for fair pavements, the

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Fig. 4. User Interface of Pavement ME design software.

IRI values was 170 inch per mile and AC total fatigue cracking was 20%. Both of these performance criteria were evaluated
with 50% reliability. The initial IRI value was assumed to be 90 inch per mile for all the routes.
As shown in Fig. 4, the traffic input page can be selected from the explorer pane to provide traffic information in the Pave-
ment ME Design software. Required information are two-way Average Annual Daily Truck Traffic (AADTT), number of lanes,
percentage of trucks in design direction (i.e., Directional Distribution Factor), percentage of trucks in design lane (i.e., Lane
Distribution Factor), and operational speed. The values for AADTT are presented in Table 1. For primary routes, it was
assumed that 50% of the trucks are in the design direction. The percentage of trucks in design lane is dependent on the num-
ber of lanes on the route. For 2, 3, and 4 or more lanes in each direction, the percentage of trucks in the design lane is 80%,
65%, and 60%, respectively (SCDOT, 2008). It was assumed that the operational speed for all the routes is 45 miles per hour.
This constant value for operational speed was used to avoid influence of speed in the determination of service life. Default
values were used for all other inputs in the Traffic Input page.
From the explorer pane, users are able to select the Climate page to provide the climate information in the proximity of
the route. Pavement ME Design Software requires inputs on hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humid-
ity, and percentage of sunshine/cloud coverage data. All of this information is contained in the climate files which were
downloaded from LTTP InfoPave (https://infopave.fhwa.dot.gov/) and loaded into the Pavement ME Design software. The cli-
mate files contain data for nine stations in South Carolina. For each route, the closest climate station, among the nine avail-
able, was selected as the input station for analysis.
As shown in Fig. 4, users can select the AC Layer Properties page from the explorer pane. This page shows M-E rehabil-
itation analysis input levels and its properties. In this study, input level 2 was used. It is assumed in the analysis that the
percentage of fatigue cracking is zero and reflective cracking is zero inch per mile for the rehabilitation designs. With input
level 2, the Pavement ME Design software uses estimated regional values for the analysis.
On the Pavement Structure page in the explorer pane, as shown in Fig. 4, all of the required inputs are prefilled from the
ME Design output file except for Asphalt Binder. The SuperPave: 64-22 was selected as the asphalt binder for all Asphalt Con-
crete layers (i.e., existing surface and overlay layer).
After the analysis is complete, the Pavement ME Design software generates an output of the results in PDF and spread-
sheet format. The output shows the predicted pavement condition relative to performance targets. Fig. 6(a) and 6(b) show an
example output from Pavement ME Design software. In these figures, the black dotted line represents the predicted IRI or
fatigue cracking of the pavement over time, and the solid red line denotes the performance target value. The point when
black line intersects with the red line represents the service life of the pavement. In Fig. 6(a), the pavement service life based

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F. Ahmed, J. Thompson, D. Kim et al. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

Fig. 5. User interface of project performance criteria pane of Pavement ME design software.

on IRI is 14 years. In Fig. 6(b), the pavement service life based on bottom up and reflective cracking is projected to be well
beyond 20 years. The minimum of these two values represents the years during which the pavement remained in acceptable
condition, and hence, its service life is 14 years.
The following assumptions on the percentage of fatigue cracking and transverse cracking were used for analysis:

 For rehabilitation designs with field investigation, fatigue cracking is zero percent (0%) and transverse cracking is zero (0)
inch per mile. These values imply that rehabilitation design with investigation addresses all the fatigue cracking in the
pavement layers.
 For rehabilitation designs without field investigation
o Fatigue cracking is zero (0%) if designs include the same amount of milling as designs with investigation. This value
implies that the rehabilitation design addresses all the existing fatigue cracking.
o Fatigue cracking is 20% if designs did not include any milling of existing surface layer. This value implies that reha-
bilitation design did not address the existing fatigue cracking at all.
o Fatigue cracking is 10% if designs include half the amount of milling of existing layer compared to designs with inves-
tigation. This value implies that rehabilitation designs partially addressed the existing fatigue cracking.
o Transverse cracking is zero (0 ft/mi) if designs include any amount of milling of the existing surface layer.
o Transverse cracking is 100 ft/mi if designs did not include milling of existing layer.
 If the rehabilitation design with investigation used CMRB, then:
o Fatigue cracking is 35% for the design without field investigation if it did not require milling
o Fatigue cracking is 20% for the design without field investigation if it required milling.
 The severity level of both fatigue cracking and transverse cracking were set to ‘‘Medium”.
 After the end of service life of the rehabilitated pavement, the percentage of fatigue cracking present in the pavement was
carried over to the next maintenance cycle for both rehabilitation designs, with and without field investigation.

5. Results and discussion

5.1. Analysis I: Comparison of service life of good and fair pavements for a rehabilitation design

Table 3 shows the differences in estimated service life between the AASHTO 1972 and M-E methods for good and fair
pavements. The mean AASHTO 1972 estimated service life for good pavements is 3.25 years. On the other hand, the mean
M-E estimated pavement service life is 4.78 years. The AASHTO 1972 estimated service life is lower than M-E estimated ser-
vice life for nearly two-thirds of the routes (18 out of 28). For these routes, the AASHTO 1972 estimated service life is lower
by 3.89 years on average. The AASHTO 1972 estimated service life is higher than M-E service life for 10 routes (Route ID: 2,
15, 17, 18, 20, 21, 24, 25, 27, 28). For these routes, the AASHTO 1972 estimated service life is higher by 2.74 years on average.
For all routes, the M-E estimated service life for good pavements is governed by the IRI criterion. This can be attributed to
the fact that the rehabilitation designs with investigation addressed the existing distresses of the pavements.
Nine routes have AASHTO 1972 estimated service life higher than the mean (i.e., 3.25 years). These routes have at least 4%
of trucks. Eight routes have the M-E estimated service life higher than the mean (i.e., 4.78 years). The minimum percentage
of trucks on these routes is 6%. Moreover, all of these routes have CMRB in their designs. For majority of the routes, the M-E
estimated service life ranges between 2 and 6 years. The routes which have an M-E estimated service life greater than
10 years (Route ID: 8, 9, 13, 16, 22, 23) are those that have CMRB treatment and at least 3 inch of asphalt concrete overlay.
Moreover, these routes have AADT less than 8,000 vehicle/day and truck percentage less than 10%, except for route 24. Two
other routes received CMRB treatment (route 4 and 24) but their M-E estimated service life is less than 10 years. This is most
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F. Ahmed, J. Thompson, D. Kim et al. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

Fig. 6. (a) Predicted IRI by Pavement ME design software (b) Predicted AC bottom-up and reflective cracking by Pavement ME design software.

likely due to the percentage of trucks on these routes being more than 10% (54.4% on route 4; 27% on route 26). Only three
routes (route 17, 27, and 28) have an AASHTO 1972 estimated service life greater than five years. These routes have at least
8% trucks, and the SN after rehabilitation is higher than the required SN by at least 31%.
Table 3 also shows the differences in estimated service life between the AASHTO 1972 and M-E methods for fair pave-
ments. The mean AASHTO 1972 estimated service life for fair pavements is 13.1 years. On the other hand, the mean M-E esti-
mated pavement service life is 34.5 years. The AASHTO 1972 estimated service life is lower than M-E estimated service life
for majority of the routes (26 out of 28). For these routes, the AASHTO 1972 estimated service life is lower by 24 years on
average. Two routes have AASHTO 1972 estimated service life higher than the M-E estimated service life (53.8 years for route
27 and 46.6 years for route 28). The mean difference is 12.4 years. For each of these routes, the SN after the rehabilitation is
higher than the required SN by at least 33% (36.4% for route 27; 33.5% for route 28). Moreover, these routes have existing SN
that are higher than the required SN and the rehabilitation does not include CMRB.
Similar to good pavements, the M-E estimated service life of fair pavements are all due to IRI failure for all routes. As dis-
cussed earlier, this is most likely due to the fact that the rehabilitation design addressed the existing distresses.
Seven routes (routes 15, 17, 18, 21, 25, 27, and 28) have the AASHTO 1972 estimated service life higher than the mean
(i.e., 13.1 years). The existing SN of all of these routes are higher than the required SN and have at least 18% of trucks. More-
over, none of these routes include CMRB in their designs. Fourteen routes have M-E estimated service life higher than the
mean (i.e., 34.5 years). The minimum percentage of trucks on these routes is 8% and the minimum AADT is 3000 vehicle/day.
Fig. 7 presents a graphical comparison between the AASHTO 1972 estimated service life and M-E estimated service life for
good and fair pavements. For good pavements, the AASHTO 1972 estimated median value for service life is 2.75 years and
inter-quartile range (IQR) is 1.87 years, compared to 3.0 years and 3.40 years of the M-E method. Visually, it can be seen that
these two methods produce very close estimates. For fair pavements, the AASHTO 1972 estimated median value for service
life is 7.75 years and inter-quartile range (IQR) is 7.0 years, compared to 34.7 years and 4.12 years of the M-E method. Visu-
ally, it can be seen that the AASHTO 1972 estimated pavement service life is well below that of the M-E method. Moreover,
its estimates have a much bigger variance than the M-E method.

5.2. Analysis II: Service life of fair pavements with and without investigation rehabilitation designs

Table 4 shows the differences in estimated service life of fair pavements using AASHTO 1972 and M-E method for two
types of rehabilitation designs, with and without investigation. Note that, section 5.1 discusses the differences of service life
of fair pavements with investigation design. The mean and median AASHTO 1972 estimated service life for pavements
designed without investigation 29.4 and 8.8 years, respectively. Here, the calculated mean is affected by the extreme value
of estimated service life of routes 24, 27, and 28 (i.e., service life 260.4, 149.2, 118.6 years, respectively). The existing SN of
these routes were already higher than the required SN. In addition, design SN after rehabilitation of these routes are higher
than the required SN by at least 50% and the existing asphalt layer thickness were more than 12 inches. The mean service life
is reduced from 29.5 years to 11.8 years if routes 24, 27, 28 are not considered in the estimation. The mean and median M-E
estimated service life for pavements designed without investigation is 25.7, 32.6 years, respectively. The AASHTO 1972 esti-
mated service life for fair pavement designed without investigation is lower than M-E estimated service life for 20 out of 28
routes. For these routes, the AASHTO 1972 estimated service life is lower by 18.4 years on average. The AASHTO 1972 esti-
mated service life is higher than M-E service life for 8 routes (Route ID: 4, 7, 10, 13, 22, 24, 27, 28). For these routes, the
AASHTO 1972 estimated service life is higher by 58.9 years on average.
The M-E estimated service life of these routes is governed by the fatigue cracking criterion for nearly one-third (9 out of
28; Route ID: 4, 10, 12, 13, 14, 19, 22 23, 24) of the pavements designed without investigation. This can be attributed to the
fact that the rehabilitation design without investigation fail to address the existing distresses of these pavements. For other
routes, the estimated service life was governed by IRI criterion.
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F. Ahmed, J. Thompson, D. Kim et al. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

Table 3
Comparison of Service Life (SL) of rehabilitation design with investigation for good and fair pavement.

Route ID Good Fair

AASHTO 1972 SL M-E Difference1 AASHTO 1972 SL M-E Difference1
(years) SL (years) (years) SL (years)
1 2.0 2.1 0.1 7.3 32.7 25.4
2 2.8 2.4 0.4 12.8 33.3 20.5
3 1.2 2.7 1.5 4.7 33.6 28.9
4 2.6 4.5 1.9 7.5 25.8 18.3
5 1.3 2.9 1.6 5.2 33.3 28.1
6 1.2 2.6 1.4 3.5 33.2 29.7
7 0.8 1.7 0.9 3.5 32.1 28.6
8 3.0 11.7 8.7 12.2 35.0 22.8
9 3.8 11.7 7.9 12.8 34.9 22.1
10 3.1 5.5 2.4 7.6 29.5 21.9
11 1.4 3.3 1.9 5.6 34.0 28.4
12 0.9 1.1 0.2 4.8 37.9 33.1
13 1.8 12.0 10.2 6.7 35.0 28.3
14 2.3 6.0 3.7 7.2 29.5 22.3
15 4.2 3.8 0.4 22.2 34.5 12.3
16 2.6 12.6 10.0 10.2 40.7 30.5
17 5.5 2.0 3.5 26.0 33.0 7.0
18 3.9 2.7 1.2 20.6 37.2 16.6
19 2.7 3.1 0.4 10.0 37.5 27.5
20 2.8 1.8 1.0 7.1 36.2 29.1
21 3.8 2.2 1.6 15.6 37.2 21.6
22 3.0 12.2 9.2 7.6 39.1 31.5
23 2.6 10.8 8.2 8.6 37.6 29.0
24 4.3 3.1 1.2 7.9 28.8 20.9
25 4.7 0.8 3.9 23.0 34.3 11.3
26 2.2 2.3 0.0 5.9 35.3 29.4
27 10.9 3.6 7.3 53.8 37.9 15.9
28 9.7 2.8 6.9 46.6 37.8 8.8
Mean 3.25 4.78 when AASHTO 1972 < M-E: 13.1 34.5 when AASHTO 1972 < M-E:
mean diff. = 3.89 mean diff. = 24
when AASHTO 1972 > M-E: when AASHTO 1972 > M-E:
mean diff. = 2.74 mean diff. = 12.4
1
Difference = M-E Service life (years) – AASHTO 1972 Service life (years).

One-third of the routes (route ID 6, 7, 15, 18, 21, 24, 25, 27, 28) have AASHTO 1972 estimated service life for fair pave-
ments without investigation design higher than 20 years. The existing SN of these routes were already higher than the
required SN except for routes 6 and 7. The design SN was increased by at least 30% for routes 6 and 7. The M-E service life
for design without investigation is lower than the mean for nine routes (route ID: 4, 10, 12, 13, 14, 19, 22, 23, 24). The reha-
bilitation design without investigation failed to address the existing distress in these routes. For these routes, the initial per-
centages of fatigue cracking and the percentages of trucks were at least 10% and 8%, respectively.
Fig. 8 presents a graphical comparison between the AASHTO 1972 estimated service life and M-E estimated service life for
rehabilitation designs, with and without investigation of fair pavements. For rehabilitation design without investigation, the
AASHTO 1972 estimated median value for service life is 8.8 years and inter-quartile range (IQR) is 20.2 years, compared to
32.6 years and 14.4 years of the M-E method. Visually, it can be seen that these two methods produce somewhat different
estimates. Also, the variance of each method is large compared to the with investigation design for fair pavements.

5.3. Identification of causal factors

A paired t-test was performed to determine if the mean difference in service life (SL) is statistically different at 95% con-
fidence level for analysis I and II. The null and alternative hypothesis are as follows.
H0 : SLAASHTO  SLME ¼ 0

Ha : SLAASHTO  SLME –0
For analysis I, paired t-test was conducted for rehabilitation design with investigation of good and fair pavements. The
test results indicate that null hypothesis cannot be rejected at the 95% confidence level for good pavements (p-
value = 0.096). However, the null hypothesis can be rejected for fair pavements (p-value < 0.001). For analysis II, paired Wil-
coxon signed rank exact test was conducted for rehabilitation design without investigation of fair pavements. The Wilcoxon
signed rank test was used instead of t-test because the estimated service life for these routes have extreme values in the data.
The test results indicate that null hypothesis can be rejected at the 95% confidence level for fair pavements designed without
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Fig. 7. Distribution of AASHTO 1972 and M-E service life for good and fair pavements.

investigation (p-value = 0.0221). The t-test results in analysis I indicated that, the null hypothesis can be rejected for fair
pavements designed with investigation (p-value < 0.001). The statistical tests confirmed that the AASHTO 1972 estimated
service life is not statistically different from the M-E service life for good pavements designed with investigation but is sta-
tistically different for fair pavements of both rehabilitation designs, with and without investigation.
Given the significant difference in estimated service life between the two methods for fair pavements of both rehabilita-
tion designs, with and without rehabilitation, linear regression models were developed to identify the factors that may have
contributed to their differences. The explanatory variables considered in model include characteristics of routes, traffic,
pavement, and rehabilitation design. The route characteristics include functional classification, road groups, and number
of lanes. The traffic characteristics include AADT, AADTT, and percentage of trucks. The pavement characteristics include
thickness of existing asphalt layer, soil support value (SSV), existing SN, SN after rehabilitation, and difference (%) between
design SN and required SN. The design characteristics include the type of design (‘‘CMRB”, ‘‘mill”, ‘‘no mill”). These data are
provided in Tables 1 and 2.
In the regression models for with investigation design, the AASHTO 1972 method has the following specification (Adjusted
R2 = 0.703) as shown in Eq. (5). It indicates that the service life (SL) is positively related to the difference (%) between design
SN and required SN (p-value < 0.05). Specifically, for each percentage increase in the difference of SN, the pavement service
life is increased by 0.946 years. The M-E method has the following specification (Adjusted R2 = 0.289) as shown in Eq. (6). It
indicates that the service life is negatively related to the functional class Urban Minor Arterial (UMA) (p-value < 0.05) and
Urban Minor Collector (UMC) (p-value < 0.05) compared to Rural Minor Arterial (RMA). Specifically, if the route’s functional
class is an UMA instead of RMA, its service life is reduced by 3.96 years. Similarly, if the route’s functional class is an UMC
instead of RMA, its service life is reduced by 6.93 years.
SLAASHTO 1972;Fair;with inv estigation ¼ 5:331 þ 0:945  ð% diff : SN v alueÞ ð5Þ

SLME;Fair;with inv estigation ¼ 36:5  3:96  UMA  6:93  UMC ð6Þ

In the regression models for without investigation design, the AASHTO 1972 method has the following specification (ad-
justed R2 = 0.48) as shown in Eq. (7). It indicates that the service life is positively related to the difference (%) between design
SN and required SN (p-value < 0.05). Specifically, for each percentage increase in the difference of SN, the pavement service
life is increased by 1.702 years. The M-E method has the following specification (adjusted R2 = 0.886) as shown in Eq. (8). It
indicates that the service life is negatively related to the percentage of initial fatigue cracking in the pavement (p-
value < 0.05) if it is not addressed in rehabilitation design. Specifically, for each percentage increase in pavements initial fati-
gue cracking, pavement service life is decreased by 0.898 years.
SLAASHTO 1972;Fair;without inv estigation ¼ 18:688 þ 1:702  ð% diff : SN v alueÞ ð7Þ

SLME;Fair;with outinv estigation ¼ 34:204  0:898  ðinitial Fatigue CrackingÞ ð8Þ

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F. Ahmed, J. Thompson, D. Kim et al. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

Table 4
Comparison of Service Life (SL) of rehabilitation design with investigation for good and fair pavement.

Route ID Rehabilitation design with investigation Rehabilitation design without Investigation

AASHTO M-E SL (years) Difference1 AASHTO M-E SL (years) Difference1
1972 SL (years) [FC; FM] (years) 1972 SL (years) [FC; FM] (years)
1 7.3 32.7 [0; IRI] 25.4 11.6 30.9 [10; IRI] 19.3
2 12.8 33.3 [0; IRI] 20.5 12.8 33.3 [0; IRI] 20.5
3 4.7 33.6 [0; IRI] 28.9 2.8 31.6 [0; IRI] 28.8
4 7.5 25.8 [0; IRI] 18.3 6.8 4.8 [35; C] 2
5 5.2 33.3 [0; IRI] 28.1 6.8 32.7 [0; IRI] 25.9
6 3.5 33.2 [0; IRI] 29.7 27.7 33.5 [0; IRI] 5.8
7 3.5 32.1 [0; IRI] 28.6 40.2 32.8 [0; IRI] 7.4
8 12.2 35.0 [0; IRI] 22.8 4.2 26.8 [0; IRI] 22.6
9 12.8 34.9 [0; IRI] 22.1 4.9 33.0 [10; IRI] 28.1
10 7.6 29.5 [0; IRI] 21.9 11.9 2.7 [35; C] 9.2
11 5.6 34.0 [0; IRI] 28.4 6.9 33.0 [10; IRI] 26.1
12 4.8 37.9 [0; IRI] 33.1 1.9 23.2 [10; C] 21.3
13 6.7 35.0 [0; IRI] 28.3 4.2 2.2 [35; C] 2.0
14 7.2 29.5 [0; IRI] 22.3 0.4 19.3 [20; C] 18.9
15 22.2 34.5 [0; IRI] 12.3 23.1 33.8 [0; IRI] 10.7
16 10.2 40.7 [0; IRI] 30.5 9.4 31.2 [0; IRI] 21.8
17 26.0 33.0 [0; IRI] 7.0 18.4 32.5 [0; IRI] 14.1
18 20.6 37.2 [0; IRI] 16.6 29.2 32.8 [0; IRI] 3.6
19 10.0 37.5 [0; IRI] 27.5 0.6 17.9 [20; C] 17.3
20 7.1 36.2 [0; IRI] 29.1 3.9 32.7 [5; IRI] 28.8
21 15.6 37.2 [0; IRI] 21.6 23.2 35.6 [0; IRI] 12.4
22 7.6 39.1 [0; IRI] 31.5 1.3 0.42 [35; C] 0.9
23 8.6 37.6 [0; IRI] 29.0 2.4 15.0 [20; C] 12.6
24 7.9 28.8 [0; IRI] 20.9 260.4 4.0 [20; C] 256.4
25 23.0 34.3 [0; IRI] 11.3 31.6 34.2 [0; IRI] 2.6
26 5.9 35.3 [0; IRI] 29.4 8.2 35.5 [0; IRI] 27.3
27 53.8 37.9 [0; IRI] 15.9 149.2 37.3 [0; IRI] 111.9
28 46.6 37.8 [0; IRI] 8.8 118.6 36.92 [0; IRI] 81.7
Mean 13.1 34.5 when AASHTO 1972 < M-E: 29.5 25.7 when AASHTO 1972 < M-E:
mean diff. = 24 (median 8.8) (median: 32.6) mean diff. = 18.4
when AASHTO 1972 > M-E: when AASHTO 1972 > M-E:
mean diff. = 12.4 mean diff. = 58.9
1
Difference (years) = M-E Service life – AASHTO 1972 Service life; FC: initial % of Fatigue cracking; FM: MAP-21 Failure Criteria (IRI: International
Roughness Index, C: Fatigue Cracking).

Fig. 8. Distribution of AASHTO 1972 and M-E service life for rehabilitation designs, with and without investigation of fair pavements.

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F. Ahmed, J. Thompson, D. Kim et al. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology 12 (2023) 46–61

6. Summary and conclusion

This study evaluated the service life of pavements using the AASHTO 1972 pavement design guide and mechanistic-
empirical pavement design guide for a given rehabilitation design. The goal was to understand how their estimated service
lives differ and what factors contribute to their differences. Service life was determined for 28 routes using MAP-21 criteria
for good and fair pavements. The designs used for the service life evaluation were developed by the SCDOT for actual reha-
bilitation projects; they accounted for distresses in the pavement found through field investigation. Analysis results indi-
cated that (1) the predicted service life using the M-E method has lower variation than the AASHTO 1972 method and is
affected by the location (rural vs. urban) of the routes, (2) the predicted service life using the AASHTO 1972 method is gen-
erally lower than that of the M-E method and is affected by the difference between the design structural number (SN) and
required SN, (3) the M-E service life for good pavement is generally longer for routes that include CMRB design and the per-
centage of trucks lower than 10%, and (4) the AASHTO 1972 service life is higher if the existing SN is already exceeding the
required SN from the previous maintenance.
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study contributes to the current body of work on the use of the M-E method to
determine pavement service life of rehabilitation designs for flexible pavements and to evaluate how this estimated pave-
ment service life is different from the AASHTO 1972 method. The identified factors that contributed to their differences could
be used by the SCDOT and other state transportation agencies to determine when the AASHTO 1972 or the M-E should be
used. Findings from this study should only be applied with the recognition of its limitations: (1) analysis has a small sample,
(2) analysis considered only flexible pavements on primary routes in one state, and (3) designs, methods and materials con-
sidered are specific to SCDOT practice. To make the findings more generalizable, future studies should use data from both
flexible and rigid pavements as well as data from multiple states. In addition, the pavement service life estimation would
benefit from more accurate existing SN values via the use of newer advanced technologies such as Ground Penetrating Radar
(GPR) and Traffic Speed Deflectometer (TSD).

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have
appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgments

The work described in this paper is part of a project sponsored by the South Carolina Department of Transportation. The
authors would like to thank Kazi Moinul Islam of University of South Carolina for providing valuable guidelines in using the
Pavement ME software. The authors declare that the contents of this article have not been published previously. The authors
confirm contribution to the paper as follows: study conception and design: Jay Thompson (JT), Dahae Kim (DK); analysis and
interpretation of results: Fahim Ahmed (FA) and Nathan Huynh (NH), JT, DK, and Eric Carroll (EC); draft manuscript prepa-
ration: FA, NH, JT, DK and EC. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript. Results and
opinions expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and they do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the
SCDOT.

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