Averaging Techniques PDF

IME634: Management
Decision Analysis
Raghu Nandan Sengupta
Industrial & Management Department
Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur
IME634:MDA R.N.Sengupta, IME Dept., IIT 1

Kanpur
Data Analysis
Regression and
Forecasting
IME634:MDA R.N.Sengupta, IME Dept., IIT Kanpur 2

Regression and Forecasting
Topics to be covered
Linear regression, Multiple linear
regression, Curve fitting, Variability in
data due to time
dependence/independence, etc.,
Concept of forecasting, etc.
Regression and Forecasting
1) Forecasting
2) Prediction
3) Different types of Regression
4) Curve Fitting

Simple Linear Regression
Under this method the most

important assumption is that the
dependent variable, which we denote
by Y is due to effect of only one
independent variable, which we
denote by X

Yi    X i   i
Assumptions
E  i X i  E  X   0  i=1,2,…..,n
E[ i ]  0  i=1,2,…..,n
 ij, i,j=1,2,…..,n
E[ i j ]  0
 i=1,2,…..,n
V [ i  ]   2i 

X ~ N  X , X2 

Results
1) E Y     E  X   i=1,2,…..,n
2)  Y2   2 X2   2(i )  i=1,2,…..,n

In the simple linear regression we have
Yj =  + Xj + j  j = 1,2,…..,n
The question is how do we find  and , provided we have n
number of observations which constitutes the sample.
We minimize the sum of square of the error wrt to  and 
n
   {Y j  (ˆ  ˆX j )}2
j 1
Finally:
E (Y )  ˆ  ˆE ( X )
cov(X , Y )  E ( X ) E (Y )  ˆE ( X )  ˆ{V ( X )  E ( X ) 2 }

After we have found out the estimators of 
and , we use these values to predict/forecast
the subsequent future values of Y, i.e., we find
out y and compare those ys with the
corresponding values of Y. Thus we find
y k  ˆ  ˆX k and compare them with
corresponding values of Yk , for k = n+1,
n+2,…….

Assume  = 3 and  = 2.0 Yi    X i   i
Month Y(i) X(i) * X(i)
1 14 5 2*5
2 10 4 2*4
3 25 10 2*10
4 16 7 2*7
5 4 1 2*1
Hence the errors are: +1, -1, +2, -1, -1 which adds up to 0 as the
case should be

1.0
0.8
0.6
Y, Y-hat, error
0.4
0.2
0.0
-6.69 -6.39 -6.07 -6.68 -6.38 -6.07 -5.75 -5.13 -4.81 -4.10 -3.66 -3.26
-0.2
X
Y Y-hat error

Multi Linear Regression
Using this methodology we try to capture the

effect of other important independent
variables, X1, X2,….., XK that cause
movement of the dependent variable Y. It is
very important to remember that all these
independent variables should give maximum
information about the dependent variable Y.

Given k independent variables X1, X2,….., Xk
and one dependent variable Y we predict the
value of Y given by Ŷ or y using the values of
Xi s. We need n ( n  k+1) data points and
the multiple linear regression (MLR) equation is
as follows:
Yj = 1x1,j + 2x2,j +…..+ kxk,j + j
 j = 1, 2,….., n

Note
 There is no randomness in measuring Xi
 The relationship is linear and not non-
linear. By non-linear we mean that at least
one derivative of Y wrt is is a function of
at least one of the parameters. By
parameters we mean the is.

Assumptions for the MLR
 Xi, Y are normally distributed
 Xi are all non-stochastic
 j ~ N(0,2I)
 rank(X) = K
 nK
 No dependence between the Xjs, i.e., the rank
of the matrix X is
 E(jl) = 0  i, j = 1, 2,….., n
 Cov(Xi,j) = 0  i  j, i, j = 1, 2,….., n

Yi    1 X1,i  2 X 2,i  .....  K X K ,i   i

Assumptions
E[ i ]  0  i=1,...,n
 i=1,...,n
V [ i ]   2(i )
 j=1,…,K

X ~ N  X  j  , X2  j   jk, j,k=1,...,K
 
E X i  E  X i  X j  E X j    0  i=1,...,n & j=1,…,K
E Xi j    0
E Xj

Y    1 X 1   2  X 2   .....   K  X  K 
  
2
Y 1
2 2
X (1)   2
2
2
X ( 2)  .....   2
K
2
X (K )  2
 (i )
 i, j  i  j X2 (i ) X2 ( j )  .......

 Find 1, 2,….., k using the concept of
minimizing the sum of square of errors. This
is also known as least square method or
method of ordinary least square. The
estimates found ˆ1 , ˆ2 ,....., ˆk are the
estimates of 1, 2,….,k respectively.
 Utilize these estimates to find the forecasted
value of Y (i.e., or y) and compare those
Ŷ
with actual values of Y obtained in future.

Weighted Moving Averages
In general a weighted k-point moving
average can be written as
m
Tt   a jYt  j
j  m
Note:
 The total of the weights is equal to 1
 Weights are symmetric, i.e., aj = a-j

Weighted Moving Averages
Steps are:
1) 4MA(1)=(Y1+Y2+Y3+Y4)/4
2) 4MA(2)=(Y2+Y3+Y4+Y5)/4
3) 4MA(3)=(Y3+Y4+Y5+Y6)/4
4) 4MA(4)=(Y4+Y5+Y6+Y7)/4
5) 4X4MA=(Y1+2*Y2+3*Y3+4*Y4+3*Y5+2*Y6+Y7)/16
6) 5X4X4MA = a-2*4X4MA(1) + a-1*4X4MA(2) +
a0*4X4MA(3) + a1*4X4MA(4) + a2*4X4MA(5)
where a-2 = -3/4, a-1 = 3/4, a0 = 1, a1 = 3/4, a2 = -3/4

Assignment (Moving Averages)
The data given is the number (in X105) of world wide
international airline passengers for the years 1949-
1956
Using this data to find out
1) 3MA
2) 5MA
3) 7MA
4) 2X4MA
5) 2X6MA
6) 3X3MA
7) 5X4X4MA
Assignment (Moving Averages)
Month wise number of passenger for the year
(1949-1956)
Mth Pass Mth Pass Mth Pass Mth Pass
Jan 112 Jan 145 Jan 196 Jan 242
Feb 118 Feb 150 Feb 196 Feb 233
Mar 132 Mar 178 Mar 236 Mar 267
Apr 129 Apr 163 Apr 235 Apr 269
May 121 May 172
May 229 May 270
Jun 135 Jun 178
Jun 243 Jun 315
Jul 148 Jul 199
Aug 148 Aug 199 Jul 264 Jul 364
Sep 136 Sep 184 Aug 272 Aug 347
Oct 119 Oct 162 Sep 237 Sep 312
Nov 104 Nov 146 Oct 211 Oct 274
Dec 118 Dec 166 Nov 180 Nov 237
Jan 115 Jan 171 Dec 201 Dec 278
Feb 126 Feb 180 Jan 204 Jan 284
Mar 141 Mar 193 Feb 188 Feb 277
Apr 135 Apr 181 Mar 235 Mar 317
May 125 May 183
Apr 227 Apr 313
Jun 149 Jun 218
May 234 May 318
Jul 170 Jul 230
Aug 170 Aug 242 Jun 264 Jun 374
Sep 158 Sep 209 Jul 302 Jul 413
Oct 133 Oct 191 Aug 293 Aug 405
Nov 114 Nov 172 Sep 259 Sep 355
Dec 140 Dec 194 Oct 229 Oct 306
Nov 203 Nov 271
Dec 229 Dec 306

Exponential Smoothing Methods
1) Single Exponential Smoothing (one
parameter, adaptive parameter)
2) Holts linear method (suitable for trends)
3) Holt-Winters method (suitable for trends
and seasonality)
4) Pegels classification

Single Exponential Smoothing
The general equation is:
Ft+1 = Ft + (Yt – Ft) = Yt + (1 - )Ft,
Note:
 Error term: Et = Yt - Ft
 Forecast value: Ft
 Actual value: Yt
 Weight:   (0,1)
  is such that sum of square of errors is minimized

Month Y(t) F(t, 0.1) F(t.0.5) F(t,0.9)
Jan 200.0
Feb 135.0 200.0 200.0 200.0
Mar 195.0 193.5 167.5 141.5
Apr 197.5 193.7 181.3 189.7
May 310.0 194.0 189.4 196.7
Jun 175.0 205.6 249.7 298.7
Jul 155.0 202.6 212.3 187.4
Aug 130.0 197.8 183.7 158.2
Sep 220.0 191.0 156.8 132.8
Oct 277.5 193.9 188.4 211.3
Nov 235.0 202.3 233.0 270.9
Dec ------- 205.6 234.0 238.6

350
300
250
Values
200
150
100
50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Qty([Y(t)] F(t,0.1) F(t,0.5) F(t,0.9)

Adaptive Exponential Smoothing
Ft+1 = tYt + (1 - t)Ft
Note:
 Error term: Et = Yt – Ft
 Smoothed Error: At = Et + (1 - )At-1
 Absolute Smoothed Error: Mt = |Et| + (1 - )Mt-1
 Weight: t+1 = |At/Mt|
  and  are such that sum of square of errors is
minimized
Starting values:
 F2 = Y1
 2 =  = 0.2
 A1 = M 1 = 0

Month Y(t) F(t) E(t) A(t) M(t)  
Jan 200.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Feb 135.0 200.0 -65.0 -13.0 13.0 0.2
Mar 195.0 187.0 8.0 -8.8 12.0 1.0
Apr 197.5 188.6 8.9 -5.3 11.4 0.7
May 310.0 190.4 119.6 19.7 33.0 0.5
Jun 175.0 214.3 -39.3 7.9 34.3 0.6
Jul 155.0 206.4 -51.4 -4.0 37.7 0.2
Aug 130.0 196.2 -66.2 -16.4 43.4 0.1
Sep 220.0 182.9 37.1 -5.7 42.1 0.4
Oct 277.5 190.3 87.2 12.9 51.1 0.1
Nov 235.0 207.8 27.2 15.7 46.4 0.3
Dec 213.2 0.3

350
300
250
Values
200
150
100
50
0
Y(t) F(t) Month

350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
Values
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
-50.00
-100.00
Time
A(t) M(t) E(t) F(t) Y(t)

Extension of Exponential Smoothing
Ft+1 = 1Yt + 2Ft + 3Ft-1
Note:
 Error term: Et = Yt – Ft
 Weights: i  (0,1)  i = 1, 2 and 3
 1 + 2 + 3 = 1
 is are such that sum of square of errors is minimized
450
400
350
300
250
Values
200
150
100
50
0
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
Y(t) F(t) Month

Forecasting Solved Example # 01
The IIT Home Tutor Solutions Pvt. Ltd. helps
customers to find private tuitions and coaching centers
in Kanpur city as well as online tutors. This supply
business is competitive, and the ability to deliver
talented as well as well-educated tutors promptly is a
big factor in getting new customers and maintaining
old ones. The manager of the company wants to be
certain that enough tutors are available at hand to
meet demand promptly. Therefore, the manager wants
to be able to forecast the demand for requirement of
tutors during the next month. From the records of
previous orders, management has accumulated the
following data for the past 10 months:
(contd…)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
120 90 100 75 110
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
50 75 130 110 90

(contd…)
Compute the monthly demand forecast for
1) February through November using the naive
method
2) April through November using a 3-month moving
average
3) June through November using a 5-month moving
average
4) April through November using a 3-month weighted
moving average. Use weights of 0.50, 0.33, and
0.17, with the heavier weights on the more recent
months
(contd…)
1) The naïve method uses demand for
the current month as forecast for the
next month, i.e.,, Yt=Dt=Ft+1, where Dt
denotes demand for time period t. So
for Feb we would have FFeb=DJan=120
and in the same way we can write
FNov=DOct=90. The other values may
be calculated accordingly

(contd…)
2) For the simple 3 month moving
average we use the following
formulae which is Ft+1=(Dt+Dt-1+Dt-2)/3.
Thus we can start to forecast from
April ONLY and the value is given as
FApr=(DMar+DFeb+DJan)/3=(100+90+120
)/3=103.3. The other values may be
calculated accordingly

(contd…)
3) For the simple 5 month moving average
we use the following formulae which is
Ft+1=(Dt+Dt-1+Dt-2+Dt-3+Dt-4)/5. Thus we
can start to forecast from June ONLY
and the value is given as
FJun=(DMay+DApr+DMar+DFeb+DJan)/5=(11
0+75+100+90+120)/5=99.0. The other
values may be calculated accordingly

(contd…)
4) For the weighted 3 month moving
average we use the following formulae
which is Ft+1=(t*Dt+t-1*Dt-1+t-2*Dt-2)/3.
Thus we can start to forecast from April
ONLY and the value is given as
FApr=(t*Dt+t-1*Dt-1+t-2*Dt-
2)/3=(0.50*100+0.33*90+0.17*120)/3=10
1.0. The other values may be calculated
accordingly

IIT Kanpur Furniture Ltd. makes customized
furniture. Orders are received via online
request and subsequently demand is fulfilled.
Formed and operated by IIT Kanpur students,
the company has had steady growth since it
started. Due to volatility of demand, they need
a good forecast of demand for their furniture
so that they will know how much raw material
to purchase and stock. They have compiled
demand data for the last 12 months as
reported below
(contd…)
Jan Feb Mar
37 40 41
Apr May Jun
37 45 50
Jul Aug Sep
43 47 56
Oct Nov Dec
52 55 54

(contd…)
1) Use exponential smoothing with smoothing parameter
α = 0.3 to compute the demand forecast for January
(Period 13).
2) Use exponential smoothing with smoothing parameter
α = 0.5 to compute the demand forecast for January
(Period 13).
3) Suresh M. Rao believes that there is an upward trend
in the demand. Use trend-adjusted exponential
smoothing with smoothing parameter α = 0.5 and
trend parameter β = 0.3 to compute the demand
forecast for January (Period 13).
4) Compute the mean squared error for each of the
methods used
(contd…)
1) The formulae to be used is Ft+1=Ft+*(Dt-Ft),
here we consider Dt=Yt for our convenience.
To determine the forecast of Jan we need to
know for Dec and to know about Dec we need
to know about Nov and so on. Thus
 F2=F1+*(D1-F1)=37+0.3*(37-37)=37.0
 F3=F2+*(D2-F2)=37+0.3*(40-37)=37.9
 ……
 F13=F12+*(D12-F12)=50.85+0.3*(54-
50.85)=51.79
(contd…)
2) The formulae to be used is Ft+1=Ft+*(Dt-Ft),
here we consider Dt=Yt for our convenience.
To determine the forecast of Jan we need to
know for Dec and to know about Dec we need
to know about Nov and so on. Thus
 F2=F1+*(D1-F1)=37+0.5*(37-37)=37.0
 F3=F2+*(D2-F2)=37+0.5*(40-37)=38.5
 ……
 F13=F12+*(D12-F12)=53.21+0.5*(54-
53.21)=53.61
(contd…)
3) The formulae to be used
when using trend is
 At={*Dt+(1-)*(At-1+Tt-1)}
 Tt={*(At-At-1)+(1-)*Tt-1}
 Using the above two we find
Ft+1=(At+Tt)
(contd…)
3) For period t=2 we first consider A0=37 and
T0=0. Using which we have the following
 A1={*D1+(1-)*(A0+T0)}=0.5*37+{(1-
0.5)*(37+0)}=37
 T1={*(A1-A0)+(1-)*T0}=0.3*((37-37)+(1-
0.3)*0=0
 F2=A1+T1=37+0=37

(contd…)
3) For period t=3 we first consider
 A2={*D2+ (1-
)*(A1+T1)}={0.5*40+(1-
0.5)*(37+0)}=38.5
 T2={*(A2-A1)+(1-)*T1}={0.3*(38.5-
37)+(1-0.3)*0}=0.45
 F3=A2+T2= 38.5 +0.45=38.95

(contd…)

(contd…)
4) To compute the mean square error
we need to first compute Et=Dt-Ft,
where Et is the error of time period t
and then find MSE=(E21+E22+…+E2n-
+E2 )/n
1 n

(contd…)

Holts Linear method
The general equations are:
1) Lt = Yt + (1-)(Lt-1 + bt-1)
2) bt = (Lt – Lt-1) + (1 - )bt-1
3) Ft+m = Lt + btm
Note:
 Error: Yt - Ft
 Smoothing value: Lt
 Weight:   (0,1)
 Smoothing constant:   (0, 1)
 Trend/Estimate of the slope of the time series: bt
 Number of periods ahead to be forecasted: m
  and  are such that sum of square of errors is minimized

Starting values:
 L1 = Y1
 b1 = Y2 - Y1
  = 0.501
  = 0.072
 m=1

Month Y(t) L(t) b(t) F(t)
Jan 143.0 143.0 9.0
Feb 152.0 143.0 8.4 152.0
Mar 161.0 147.9 8.1 151.4
Apr 139.0 139.4 6.9 156.0
May 137.0 134.7 6.1 146.3
Jun 174.0 151.4 6.8 140.8
Jul 142.0 143.3 5.8 158.2
Aug 141.0 139.3 5.1 149.0
Sep 162.0 148.1 5.3 144.3
Oct 180.0 161.4 5.9 153.5
Nov 164.0 159.8 5.4 167.3
Dec 171.0 162.7 5.2 165.1
Jan 206.0 181.8 6.2 167.9
Feb 193.0 184.3 5.9 188.0
Mar 207.0 192.7 6.1 190.3
Apr 218.0 202.3 6.4 198.8
May 229.0 212.5 6.6 208.7
Jun 225.0 215.5 6.4 219.2
Jul 204.0 206.5 5.3 221.8
Aug 227.0 214.2 5.4 211.8
Sep 223.0 215.9 5.2 219.6
Oct 242.0 226.4 5.6 221.0
Nov 239.0 229.9 5.4 231.9
Dec 266.0 245.3 6.1 235.3

HOLT'S LINEAR MODEL

300
250
200
Values
150
100
50
0
b
b
ar
ar
l
n
n
v
c
v
c
p
p
ay
ay
ct
ct
r
r
Ju
Ju
g
g
Fe
Ap
Fe
Ap
No
De
No
De
Ja
Ju
Ja
Ju
Se
Se
Au
Au
M
M
O
O
M
M
Y(t) F(t) Month

Holt-Winters Method
The general equations are:
1) Lt = Yt/St-s + (1-)(Lt-1 + bt-1)
2) bt = (Lt – Lt-1) + (1 - )bt-1
3) St = Yt/Lt + (1 -  )St-s for t > s
4) Ft+m = (Lt + btm)St-s+m
5) Si = Yi/Ls where Ls = (Y1+…+Ys)/s for i  s
Note:
 Trend: bt
 Seasonal component: St
 Length of seasonality: s
 ,  and  are chosen such that sum of square of errors is minimized

Holt-Winters Method
Starting values:
 L1 = Y1
 b1 = Y2 - Y1
  = 0.822
  = 0.055
 =0
 m=1

To check for normality of data
We need to check for the normality of Xis and Y
1) List the observation number in the column # 1,call it i.
2) List the data in column # 2.
3) Sort the data from the smallest to the largest and place in
column # 3.
4) For each ith of the n observations, calculate the
corresponding tail area of the standard normal distribution
(Z) as follows, A = (i – 0.375)/(n + 0.25). Put the values in
column # 4.
5) Use NORMSINV(A) function in MS-EXCEL to produce a
column of normal scores. Put these values in column # 5.
6) Make a copy of the sorted data (be sure to use paste
special and paste only the values) in column # 6.
7) Make a scatter plot of the data in columns # 5 and # 6.

To check for normality of data
Checking normality of data
450
400
350
300
250
Data
200
150
100
50
0
-2.5 -1.6 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 3.0
Normal Score

Basic transformation for MLR
Some transformation to convert to MLR
 X  X(p) = {Xp – 1}/p, as p  0 then X(p) =
logeX
 If the variability in Y increases with
increasing values of Y, then we use
logeY = 1logeX1 + 2logeX2 +….. +
klogeXk + 

Non-linear regression
• y = ( + X)/(1 + X)
• y = (X - )
• y =  - loge(X + )
• y =  - loge(X + )
• y = [1 – exp(-X)]
NOTE: For all these and other models we

minimize the sum of squares and find the
parameters ,  and .

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IME634: Management

IME634:MDA R.N.Sengupta, IME Dept., IIT 1

IME634:MDA R.N.Sengupta, IME Dept., IIT Kanpur 2

IME634:MDA R.N.Sengupta, IME Dept., IIT Kanpur 4

Under this method the most

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Using this methodology we try to capture the

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Yj = 1x1,j + 2x2,j +…..+ kxk,j + j

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Yi    1 X1,i  2 X 2,i  .....  K X K ,i   i

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Y    1 X 1   2  X 2   .....   K  X  K 

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Ft+1 = Ft + (Yt – Ft) = Yt + (1 - )Ft,

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Y(t) F(t) Month

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The general equation is:

Ft+1 = 1Yt + 2Ft + 3Ft-1

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HOLT'S LINEAR MODEL

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NOTE: For all these and other models we

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