FIN4715: Measuring Success in Philanthropy and Impact Investing

Sectional A1 Group 8
Group Project Report

Ee Su Ling A0203385J

Jet Lee Jun Pei A0189882E

Koh Ser Ming A0202437N

Leo Ke Ying Karine A0188914N

Tan Wen Kai A0183423J

Zachery Lee Kai Jie A0183199N

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Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................3
2. Retail Green Sukuk Issuances .............................................................................................................3
2.1 2019 Retail Green Sukuk ..............................................................................................................3
2.1.1 Financial Impact.....................................................................................................................3
2.1.2 Environmental & Social Impact.............................................................................................3
2.2 2020 Retail Green Sukuk ..............................................................................................................4
2.2.1 Financial Impact.....................................................................................................................4
2.2.2 Environmental & Social Impact.............................................................................................4
3. Global Green Sukuk Issuances ............................................................................................................5
3.1 2018 Global Green Sukuk .............................................................................................................5
3.1.1 Financial Impact.....................................................................................................................5
3.1.2 Environmental & Social Impact ............................................................................................5
3.2 2019 Global Green Sukuk .............................................................................................................6
3.2.1 Financial Impact.....................................................................................................................6
3.2.2 Environmental & Social Impact.............................................................................................6
3.3 2020 Global Green Sukuk .............................................................................................................7
3.3.1 Financial Impact.....................................................................................................................7
3.3.2 Environment & Social Impact................................................................................................7
4. CICERO Rating for the Respective Issuances.....................................................................................8
4.1 Determination of Greenium...........................................................................................................8
5. Recommendations..............................................................................................................................10
5.1 Improving Financial Returns .......................................................................................................10
5.2 Improving Social Impact .............................................................................................................10
6. Appendices ........................................................................................................................................11
7. References..........................................................................................................................................16

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1. Executive Summary

From 2018 to 2020, the Indonesia government has had a total of 5 green sukuk issuances, all aimed at
a common goal: To provide the government with an avenue to address climate change which includes
mitigation, adaptation, and biodiversity conservation strategies. By setting up the Green Bond and
Green Sukuk Framework, it allows the government to set tangible goals and track the progress of the
projects backed by these sukuk issuances.

For the structure of the report, the group will split the analysis between the retail sukuks and the global
sukuks, as they possess fundamentally different metrics from one another, such as the difference in
amount raised, maturity of the bonds, allocation of the bonds etc. Additionally, we will use both the
2018 global green sukuk and the 2019 retail green sukuk as a baseline and compare them against their
subsequent issuances (Retail: 2020, Global: 2019, 2020).

2. Retail Green Sukuk Issuances

2.1 2019 Retail Green Sukuk

In November 2019, the Republic of Indonesia issued its first Retail Green Sukuk Issuance denominated
in Indonesia Rupiah, raising an amount of IDR1.46 billion, with 100% of the proceeds targeted towards
the resilience to climate change. Millennials constituted 51.07% of the investors pool, 48.66% by Baby
Boomers and Generation X, followed by 0.27% contribution by Generation Z (MOF Indonesia, 2021).

2.1.1 Financial Impact

The trend of sales of savings sukuk has decreased from year to year, which was most likely due to a
decrease in significant investors (Appendix 3). The number of significant investors increased from
11,338 to 16,477 between ST-001 and ST-002. The increase was heavily influenced by yields, which
have risen from 6.90% for ST-001 to 8.30% for ST-002. From the issuance of ST-003 to ST-006, there
was a continued significant decrease, which was presumably caused by a drop in yields. This condition
demonstrates that the public's interest in investing in savings sukuk was still heavily influenced by the
returns offered.

2.1.2 Environmental & Social Impact

Based on our judgement, the allocation of proceeds exclusively to resiliency to climate change is
justified, given that Indonesia is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world (World Bank,
2021). In particular, the risk index for a tsunami occurring in Indonesia is 9.7/10 (Statista, 2022).

The only project financed by the ST-006 Green Sukuk issuance is the construction of flood control
facilities such as retention ponds and flood canals in West and South Sumatera (MOF Indonesia, 2021).
A total amount of IDR 730.0 billion was committed to this project, aimed at reducing the risk of flooding
due to increased rainfall intensity. As of 2022, the project has reported the following impacts: a sediment
control of 0.32 million cubic metres, and improvement of flood facilities and infrastructure for about

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28 hectares of areas (MOF Indonesia, 2021). This is also in line with the project’s objective to meet the
UN’s SDG.

Flooding poses a significant number of risks that brings about social implications, to people residing in
these highly vulnerable areas, such as loss of lives and homes (OQCS, 2018), jeopardizing stakeholders’
safety. Given the current pandemic situation, standing flood waters may also spread infectious diseases
which may bring about large-scale negative effects to the affected residential areas. With close to 29%
of the population in Indonesia working in the agriculture sector, the sector also contributes to a
substantial 13.7% to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (World Bank, 2022). Consequently,
serious floods could also lead to unemployment and loss of income, as well as detrimental economic
impacts for the country, which may cause poverty rates among the agricultural sector to increase in the
long term. Thus, we believe that the projects will provide positive impacts to the environment.

2.2 2020 Retail Green Sukuk

The 2020 Retail Green Sukuk issuance attracted the largest number of investors and highest purchase
volume in the history of Indonesia’s savings sukuk issuance, raising a total of IDR5.4 trillion. The funds
from ST-007 is split evenly into the Sustainable Transport sector (49.4%) and refinancing projects in
the Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Resilience to Climate Change sectors (50.6%).

2.2.1 Financial Impact

Further observations highlight that ST-007 has broken the trend that shows the positive correlation
between public interest and its returns provided. Despite having much lower yields than all other retail
savings sukuk (Appendix 3), sales of ST-007 sukuk reached IDR 5.42 trillion. (IM Insights, 2020). This
shows how the green sukuk demand was fuelled by the market's persistence of this 'greenium', owing
to the environmental returns discussed earlier. Moreover, green bonds tend to provide higher liquidity
in the secondary market. This makes investors more willing to pay a premium for such flexibility.

2.2.2 Environmental & Social Impact

The biggest financing project went to developing clean transportation systems, where IDR2.5 trillion
was committed to the construction and management of railways infrastructure in South Sumatera and
West Java. Over the last decade, Indonesia experienced a drastic rise in motorised transport (Statistics
Indonesia, 2019). Coupled with the developing infrastructure scene, this exacerbates the negative
environmental impact by the transport industry, which currently accounts for 70-80% of all outdoor
pollution as well as 23% of GHG emissions in the country (Diez, 2020). With the project fulfilling 4
out of 13 of Indonesia’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), the focus on sustainable transport of
this project will reduce annual GHG emissions by 1,105,491.6 tonnes (MOF Indonesia, 2021).

Easing into post-pandemic times, the number of public transport users increasing back to pre-pandemic
numbers at 1.2 million a day on the Greater Jakarta Commuter Line (Antara, 2022). This improvement

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of public transport facilities creates a direct positive social impact on the residents of Indonesia. As we
enter post-pandemic times, there are certain behaviours that are now the new normal, like shopping
online. The e-commerce market in Indonesia is booming, accounting for 20% of total retail sales in
2020 due to the pandemic, a significant rise from a mere 4% in 2019 (ITA, 2022). With an online
penetration rate of 44% in 2021 (ecommerceDB, 2022), the growing e-commerce market calls for an
equally flourishing transportation and logistics partner. The large amount committed to the increased
number of passengers and goods transported, length of network and frequency of service is of high
priority for Indonesia to match the demand of its growing e-commerce market.

The second largest funding from ST-007 was committed to refinancing the project for renewable energy,
which aims to reduce energy consumption intensity through the installation of solar-powered and LED
bulb street-lightings to improve the safety and clean energy. Compared to ST-006, the proceeds from
ST-007 were able to fund more projects and fulfil more SDGs with more sectors accounted for.

3. Global Green Sukuk Issuances

3.1 2018 Global Green Sukuk

In March 2018, Indonesia issued the world’s first sovereign green sukuk raising an amount of USD1.25
billion. Based on the type of investors allocated to this distribution, only 29% of the investors are green
investors, the remaining 71% are non-green investors (MOF Indonesia, 2018). Proceeds were utilised
to refinance completed project from 2016 budget (51%) and to finance new projects from 2018 budget
(49%). The amount USD 637.6 million was utilised to re-finance 2016 projects, with a total of 15
projects being refinanced. Bulk of the amount (67%) were utilised to refinance the Sustainable
Transport sector. The projects selected for re-financing were solely mitigation projects. As for the
financing of 2018 projects, USD 786.2 million were utilised. 46% of the amount was being utilised
for the Sustainable Transport sector and 40% for the Resilience to Climate Change for Highly
Vulnerable Areas and Sectors/ Disaster Risk Reduction. These projects had a mix of both
Adaptation and Mitigation objectives, with 40% being financed to Adaptation projects and the
remaining being distributed to Mitigation projects.

3.1.1 Financial Impact

The 2018 global green sukuk scored a Baa2 credit rating, with its currency denoted in USD. The
tenor of the sukuk was at 5 years with a coupon rate of 3.75%. When compared to the yield of the
Indonesia’s 5 years Government Bond, the yield provided by the sukuk is significantly lower.

3.1.2 Environmental & Social Impact

The Green Bond and Green Sukuk 2018 issuance finance several mitigation and adaptation activities
of climate change from the following sectors. Renewable Energy and Resilience to Climate Change
which were scored Dark Green. Sustainable Transport and Waste to Energy & Waste Management

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scored Medium to Dark Green and Energy Efficiency which were scored Light to Medium Green (MOF
Indonesia, 2021). The focus on climate change made sense as 80% of the disaster occurrences in
Indonesia were hydro-meteorological disasters, which climate change is believed to increase the risk for.
Hence, the objectives of the aforementioned projects were mainly to reduce CO2e emission. It is estimated
that a totality of 5.776 million tonnes of CO2e emissions will be mitigated across the different projects
(Impact Report 2021, 2021). 7,348,180 kWh of additional power would be generated through the
2018 projects. Furthermore, 3,453,241 households were projected to benefit from improved waste
management through the 2018 fundings. This goes to show the impact that the Green Bond and Green
Sukuk 2018 issuance has on the environment.

The social impacts generated by the 2018 global green sukuk were measured through the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs). The projects mainly tackled Goals 7, 8, 9, 11 and 13, which are namely
Affordable & Clean Energy, Decent Work & Economic Growth, Industry, Innovation & Infrastructure,
Sustainable Cities & Communities and Climate Action respectively (UN SDG, 2022). With the projects
from Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency sectors mainly addressing SDGs 7, 9, 11 and 13 through
the generation and transmission of energy from renewable energy sources and the improvement of
energy efficiency of infrastructure. The projects from the Sustainable Transport sectors are mainly
targeting SDGs 8, 9, 11 and 13 through the development of clean transportation systems. The alignment
to the SDGs shows the part that the 2018 global green sukuk has played in achieving long term positive
social impact.

3.2 2019 Global Green Sukuk

When compared with its 2018 counterpart, the USD750 million raised was 40% smaller, and with
both issuance having equal weightage in terms of financing type; 51% refinancing of existing
projects and 49% of financing new projects, one would expect a proportional drop in terms of the
environmental and social impact that is directly derived through the 2019 sukuk issuance.

3.2.1 Financial Impact

When comparing the sukuks in 2018 and 2019, the credit ratings and the currency used for the
sukuks are the same, with both years having the same Baa2 credit rating and their currency denoted
in USD. However, the tenor of the sukuks were different, with the 2019 issuance being half a year
longer in terms of maturity. The increase in yield to 3.90% from 3.75% also reflect the longer
maturity in the 2019 sukuk. In which a higher maturity denotes a higher risk rating of the bond,
thus a higher yield was given to compensate for the increased risk.

3.2.2 Environmental & Social Impact

The proceeds in both years were overweight towards the sustainable transport sector, which made
sense given that the transport sector in Indonesia is almost a quarter of Indonesia’s GDP and with
the sector growing in the double-digit territories in the last 7 years (Cekindo, 2021). Thus, by

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investing in solutions to make its transportation sector more sustainable, the observed impacts that
arises would be monumental. However, the stark difference in sector focus between the 2018 and
2019 issuances were in the Energy Efficiency sector (2018: 6%, 2019: 27%) and the Resiliency
to Climate Change sector (2018: 17%, 2019: 11%). The remaining two sectors have not much
changes in terms of proportion allocated where a spread of up to 3% were observed.

Like the 2018 issuance, the 2019 issuance also focused on goals 7-9, 11 and 13 of the United
Nation’s SDGs. However, the projected numbers vary hugely. It is projected that 3.218 million
tonnes of CO2 emissions will be reduced, compared to that of 5.776 million tonnes of CO2
emissions targeted for the 2018 issuance. Most of the carbon emission reductions were attributed
to the Sustainable Transport sector, but lesser coming from the Renewable Energy sector when
compared with 2018’s data. Additionally, a combined 7,249 kWh of additional power will be
generated through the 2019 projects, a decrease from 7,348,180 kWh generated through the 2018
projects. Lastly, it is estimated that 2,056,200 households will benefit from improved waste
management in 2019 as compared to 3,453,241 households in 2018. Our group finds that the
varying difference between projected numbers for the 2018 and 2019 issuances can be owed to
the differences in amounts raised along with the difference in focus towards the sectors targeted.

3.3 2020 Global Green Sukuk

Amount raised in the 2020 global green sukuk issuance was identical to the preceding issuance in
2019 at USD750m. However, there were noticeable changes in the allocation of proceeds. While
the allocation of proceedings between financing and re -financing projects in prior issuance were
at 51% and 49% respectively, the 2020 issuance saw a slight shift in allocation towards re-
financing projects to 58%.

3.3.1 Financial Impact

Similar to the 2018 and 2019 issuance, the 2020 issuance were denominated in USD and had a credit
rating of BBB (Moody’s Baa2 equivalent), this indicates similar credit and default risks across the three
issuances. Tenor of the 2020 issuance reverted to a similar tenor of 5 years per the 2018 issuance as
opposed to the 5.5-year tenor in 2019. However, yield of the 2020 issuance was significantly lower than
the previous two issuance at 2.3% (2018: 3.75%; 2019: 3.9%). This is presumably due to the lower
interest rate environment at the point of issue as corroborated by the lower Federal Funds Effective Rate
of 0.08% in Jun 2020 as compared to 1.51% and 2.40% in Mar 2018 and Feb 2019 respectively.

3.3.2 Environment & Social Impact

The 2020 global green sukuk issuance also saw a significant shake up in the targeted green sectors. The
targeted sectors were narrowed down from five in the previous issuances to just three sectors: (i)
Sustainable Transport; (ii) Waste and Waste to Energy Management; and (iii) Resiliency to Climate
Change. Resiliency to Climate Change became the key focus of the issuance with financing and

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refinancing projects under the sector constituting 49.51% and 33.02% of total funding respectively.
This is in line with the Indonesia government’s growing emphasis on the mitigation and management
of climate change effects given Indonesia’s inherent geographical vulnerabilities to climate change
(Yusuf, 2009). Investments in Resiliency to Climate Change projects will help Indonesia, especially the
poor who are the worst hit by climate change disasters, to better cope and recover from worsening and
potentially debilitating climate change disasters.

From a quantitative perspective, the projected impact from the 2020 issuance is expected to benefit
2,059,094 households due to the improved waste management which are figures almost identical to the
2019 issuance. Reduction in CO2 emissions attributable to Sustainable Transport projects are expected
to see a drop to 1.415 million tonnes, which is expected due to the decrease in allocation into Sustainable
Transport projects. Unsurprisingly, the biggest impact from the 2020 issuance is expected to come from
the Resiliency to Climate Change projects which are expected to (i) fulfil raw water supply needs for
drinking water of 275.5 m3; (ii) protect 1920.4 Ha of areas from flooding; (iii) rehabilitate 134,700 Ha
of tertiary irrigation network; (iv) develop 1,071 units of other water source; (v) benefit 1,236,000
people (vi) create and revitalize 12,000 Ha of rice field.

4. CICERO Rating for the Respective Issuances

Our group have analysed how the nominal proceeds were allocated into the different projects and
consolidated them based on the sector that was appropriate for the respective projects. Upon segregating
the sectors into the CICERO second-party opinion rating, we have managed to provide a summary of
how the proceeds were divided into the ratings for the respective issuances as seen in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Analysis of Proceed Allocation

From our analysis, we then came up with an average of where each of the respective sukuk issuance
stand in terms of the rating provided by CICERO. Looking at the averages, we arrived at a conclusion
that a medium green rating for the 2020 retail, 2018 – 2019 global is justifiable, whereas a dark green
rating should be warranted for the 2019 retail and 2020 global sukuk issuances.

4.1 Determination of Greenium

To ascertain the presence of ‘greenium’, our group has decided to compare the yield of the green sukuk
issuance against a comparable benchmark rate. For a fair comparison, the benchmarks chosen were

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aimed to be as identical to the green sukuk issuances as possible. Credit ratings which reflect credit
risks of the instrument is a key determinant of yield, therefore the benchmarks selected were instruments
that had corresponding credit ratings and hence credit risk to the green sukuks. Other factors which
influenced returns like Date of Issuance and Tenor were also kept similar, to the extent possible, to
eliminate the effects by external factors and to isolate the impact of ‘greenium’. While we believed that
a non-green sukuk of the same credit rating, date of issue and tenor will be the ideal benchmark for the
green sukuks, there were no issuance that met these criteria. Instead, our group believes that the
Indonesia government bond of the same tenor at the time of the green sukuk issuance will serve as a
good proxy since the credit rating of the green sukuks follow the that of the Republic of Indonesia. For
the 2018, 2019 and 2020 global green sukuks, the corresponding Indonesia government bonds of the
same/most similar tenor were used as the benchmark with their prevailing yield at the time of the green
sukuk’s issuance shown in Figure 2. Due to the lack of available data on the 2-year Indonesia
government bond at the time of issue of the 2019 retail green sukuks, a retail savings sukuk ST-005 of
the same tenor and credit rating (Baa2), issued 3 months prior (August 2019) the 2019 issuance will be
used as the benchmark for the 2019 issuance. The Covid-19 situation in 2020, meant that savings sukuk
were only issued once, hence, there is no direct comparable issuance to be used as a benchmark. Instead,
the Indonesia average historical yield of the 2-year government bond yield will be used.

Figure 2: Comparison of Green Sukuk Against Benchmark

From our analysis, green sukuks across the five issuances all had coupon rates that were at a discount
against the yields of their corresponding benchmarks. The average discount across the five issuances
was at 2.26%. As there was significant discount in yields relative to the benchmark rates of similar tenor
and credit risk, we can conclude that there is indeed ‘greenium’ factored into the pricing of the green
sukuks.

While green sukuks may not provide the best financial returns, not all gains are quantifiable. Green
sukuk investments offer investors the opportunity to have an income-generating portfolio while also
making a difference in society (Kenny, 2022). Thus, while the exact returns of these green sukuks are

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unknown and may not yield the highest financial returns, investors are still inclined to invest because
of the other benefits they provide.

5. Recommendations

5.1 Improving Financial Returns

Firstly, the government may implement some elements of a "Pay for Success" Scheme, under which
investors may be eligible for remaining payments from the government if a project is successful. This
would boost financial returns for investors and keep them interested in the projects' progress and results,
which would further serve to spread awareness of the social issues that the green sukuk is attempting to
address.

Secondly, the government can provide tax benefits for the green sukuk program to encourage more
Indonesian tax residents to buy the green Sukuk without significantly straining the country's resources.
These tax benefits may be provided directly by the government, in which case sukuk investors would
get cash rebates to offset their net interest expenses. This structure is already rolled out in notable green
bond offerings such as the U.S. federal government Clean Renewable Energy bonds as well as the
Qualified Energy Conservation Bonds program (Climate Bonds Initiative, 2014).

5.2 Improving Social Impact

Impact measurement is becoming more popular as "new philanthropy" is being used more widely to
better understand both the financial and social benefits (Chen & Harrison, 2019). It further legitimises
the investment and enhances transparency and accountability for the impact produced by social
investments by demonstrating their effects (Social Impact Investment Taskforce, 2014). It is essential
for the green sukuk initiative to improve its effect measurement evaluation and validation because it is
a social investment.

Since a result, we advise the green sukuk program to communicate its impact regularly and methodically
to investors, as this is crucial to fostering both their trust and their learning (Porter & Pfitzer, 2016) for
both the government and the investors. From a survey, 38% of respondents deemed "fear of
greenwashing” as the greatest obstacle to green investments (Edwards, 2021). This can be somewhat
avoided by increasing transparency in the selection of projects and the way funds are allocated among
them. To help investors better comprehend their investment, more thorough descriptions of the
underlying initiatives are also preferred. Investors can feel confident that the processes inside the green
projects are solid thanks to enhanced openness and regular communication throughout the investment
term (Climate Bonds Initiative, 2019).

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6. Appendices

Appendix 1: 2019 and 2020 Retail Green Sukuk (MOF Indonesia, 2021)

Appendix 2: Financing Projects of the 2019 Retail Green Sukuk (ST-006) Allocation (Ministry of
Finance of the Republic of Indonesia, 2021)

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 Year Code Bond Yield Period Target Realised Total
Rating (in (in Investor
trillions trillions (in
of Rp) of Rp) thousands)
2016 ST-001 Baa3 6.90% 2 years 2.00 2.60 11.338
2018 ST-002 Baa2 8.30% 2 years 1.00 4.90 16.477
2019 ST-003 Baa2 8.15% 2 years 2.00 3.12 13.932
2019 ST-004 Baa2 7.95% 2 years 2.00 2.63 12.528
2019 ST-005 Baa2 7.40% 2 years 1.71 1.96 10.029
2019 ST-006 Baa2 6.75% 2 years n.a. 1.50 7.735
2020 ST-007 Baa2 5.50% 2 years n.a. 5.40 16.992
Appendix 3: List of Issuance of State Savings Sukuk (ST) in Indonesia from 2016-2020 (Khalilurrahman
& Mubarrak, 2022)

Appendix 4: Financing Projects of the 2020 Retail Green Sukuk (ST-007) Allocation (Ministry of
Finance of the Republic of Indonesia, 2022)

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13
Appendix 5: Refinancing Projects of the 2020 Retail Green Sukuk (ST-007) Allocation (Ministry of
Finance of the Republic of Indonesia, 2022)

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 Year Code Bond Yield Period Target Realised Total
Rating (in (in Investor
trillions trillions (in
of Rp) of Rp) thousands)
2009 SR-001 Ba3 12.00% 3 years 1.70 5.55 14.295
2010 SR-002 Ba1 8.70% 3 years 3.00 8.00 17.231
2011 SR-003 Ba1 8.15% 3 years n.a. 7.34 15.847
2012 SR-004 Ba1 6.25% 3.5 years n.a. 13.61 17.606
2013 SR-005 Ba1 6.00% 3 years 15.00 14.97 17.783
2014 SR-006 Ba1 8.75% 3 years 18.50 19.32 34.692
2015 SR-007 Ba1 8.25% 3 years 20.00 21.97 29.706
2016 SR-008 Baa3 8.30% 3 years 30.00 31.50 48.444
2017 SR-009 Baa2 6.90% 3 years 20.00 14.04 29.838
2018 SR-010 Baa2 5.90% 3 years 8.11 8.44 17.922
2019 SR-011 Baa2 8.05% 3 years 10.00 21.12 20.630
2020 SR-012 Baa2 6.30% 3 years 7.67 12.14 23.952
2020 SR-013 Baa2 6.05% 3 years n.a. 25.667 44.800

Appendix 6: List of Issuance of Retail Sukuks in Indonesia from 2009-2020 (DJPPR, 2020)

Appendix 7: Second Party Opinion by CICERO

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