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CLIMATE CHANGE PERSPECTIVE IN MOUNTAIN AREA: IMPACTS AND

ADAPTATIONS IN NALTAR VALLEY, WESTERN HIMALAYA, PAKISTAN

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© by PSP Volume 28 ± No. 9/2019 pages 6683-6691 Fresenius Environmental Bulletin

CLIMATE CHANGE PERSPECTIVE IN MOUNTAIN AREA:

IMPACTS AND ADAPTATIONS IN NALTAR VALLEY,
WESTERN HIMALAYA, PAKISTAN
Azfar Hussain1, Shaukat Ali2,*, Saira Begum3, Ishtiaq Hussain4 Haibat Ali2
1
School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
2
Department of Environmental Sciences, Karakoram International University, Gilgit, Pakistan
3
School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
4
Department of Applied Mathematics, Chung Yuan Christian University, Taoyuan, Taiwan

ABSTRACT Kush and Himalayan ranges are more vulnerable to

Change in climate and its adverse impacts are
rewarding progressively more obvious in fragile
ecosystems of Gilgit-Baltistan. Due to geo-
morphological, topographic, and ecological condi-
tions mountainous landscapes of Hindukush, Kara-
koram and Himalaya (HKH) is more vulnerable to
climate change effects. A detailed questionnaire
survey was conducted in eastern Himalaya (Naltar
climate change [1], so there is need to maintain the
proper ecosystem services for better livelihoods of
mountain communities. The three main drivers of
environmental change in HKH region are climate
change, land use change and population dynamics
[2]. Large amount of variability in the climatic con-
dition in Gilgit Baltistan were observed which are
characterized as low annual precipitation, a great
range of mean monthly temperature, and harsh frost
9DOOH\WRDGPLWSHRSOH¶VSHUFHSWLRQUHJDUGLQJFOi-
mate change scenario, its impacts on the liveli-
hoods, adaptation and coping measures. Results
depicted that people were aware of change in cli-
mate, as majority of respondents believed that in-
crease in temperature with decreasing rainfall in
winters. They perceived that temperature got more
or less extreme as compared to past. Perceptions
regarding weather patterns were checked through
trend of climate data (1951-2013). Peoples have
experienced profusion of issues and foreseeable
diseases both in humans and animals, and facing
more climate related hazards like landslide, floods
and avalanches consequently impacted their social
and economic life very badly. The community also
professed the climate change associated hazards
severely impacted the amount of pastures as the
amount of pastures have decreased as compared to
past; and people reduced their number of livestock
with due reason. Some of them identified some
species in pastures and agricultural lands are in-
creasing. Owing to change in climate they identi-
fied some coping strategies and adaptation measure
to tackle such issues.
KEYWORDS:
Climate change, Karakoram region, Mountain life, Per-
ception, Pastures, Adaptation
INTRODUCTION
Climate change has a great impact on the pas-
tures and livelihood of high altitude. The Hindu
6683
in winter seasons [3]. Variability in climate change
has many adverse environmental effects [2] which
cause flash floods, landslides, river bank erosion
and flooding of fields [4]. The average increase in
temperature of earth surface for this century is 0.61
OC with a threshold level of 2 °C on a reference
period of 1986 to 2005 [5]. The records from the
past years have shown an increase in mean tem-
perature all over the globe [6] with the global mean
temperature increase at the rate of 0.007 °C decade-
1 over the last century [7]. This change in scale of
temperature has very adverse effects on ecosystem
services, and to all communities who take benefit
from natural resources [8]. Temperatures are likely
to increase more in the high mountain areas than
elsewhere [9]. Deforestation leads increase in sur-
face temperature on global scale, thus it change
whole global climatic scenario [10].
:DUPLQJ RI HDUWK¶V ORZHU WHPSHUDWXUH JLYHV
the potential for certain severe weather events
which affect human health directly or indirectly
(National Academy of Sciences). Vector borne dis-
eases and water borne diseases are the indirect ef-
fects of climate change. According to [11] endemic
morbidity and mortality due to diarrheal diseases
associated with floods and droughts are expected to
rise in across Asia. Increase in the frequency of
high intensity rain fall often leading to flash floods
and landslides which ultimately affects the human
health and livelihood [12]. Pakistan is highly vul-
nerable to Climate change, hence large floods and
droughts are expected in future [13]. Malaria mos-
quito is observed in high altitudes of HKH region
[14]. Rangelands are the second largest land use
type encompassing about 2.91 million hectares is
© by PSP Volume 28 ± No. 9/2019 pages 6683-6691
the most important terrestrial ecosystem in Gilgit-
Baltistan [15] which are severely affected by cli-
mate change and other anthropogenic effects [16].
Vegetation productivity in the HKH region has sig-
nificantly affected by climate change [14] which is
also been observed in Gilgit Baltistan [17]. Farmers
in Northern Pakistan also perceived the adverse
effects of climate change on pastures and pasture
productivity [18]. High altitude areas of HKH re-
gion due to unpredictable events such as snow-
storms resulting in lack of forage have always led
to sudden losses of Livestock in the region [19].
Forage productivity of all rangelands except alpine
pastures is three times less than their potential [16].
Mountain ecosystem cover about one fifth of the
HDUWK¶V FRQWLQHQWDO DUHDV [20] and so called store-
houses of global biodiversity [21]. Rapid changes in
climatic conditions are therefore likely to change
the geographic extent of species distribution, result-
ing in latitudinal and altitudinal shifts and contrac-
tion of species ranges [22].
Climate change is a clear reality and is a
greatest challenge of the WRGD\¶VZRUOG'HYHORSLQJ
countries are more susceptible for climate change
due to lack of resources and capacities to protect
against climate related hazards. Most people in the
eastern Himalayas perceive climate change as threat
[23]. The specific objective was to investigate the
climate change impacts on weather patterns, human
FIGURE 1
Location Map of Naltar Valley with detail of natural environment and human activities
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Fresenius Environmental Bulletin
health, livelihood, pastures and livestock. General
herding and seasonal direction with vertical dimen-
sion of Pastoralism were also mapped.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Study Area. Naltar is 42 km from Gilgit,
linked by a jeep road, one of the rainiest valleys in
north of Pakistan. Road to Upper Naltar opens year
round but beyond Kheot, discarded during winter.
Naltar is truly a spectacular valley, covered with
pine forests, summer meadows, snowy peaks trek-
king routes, small lakes, glaciers and above all
home to winter skiing [24].
On the basis of landscape Naltar is divided in
two parts Naltar Paeen (Lower Naltar) and Naltar
Bala (Upper Naltar). Area between Nomal and
Taurbat, Kanchli is known as lower Nalter (Figure
1). This area has dry mountains. Livestock devel-
opment is not so important in this area due to the
dry landscape and bare foliage in the mountains. In
ZLQWHUVKHUGHUVEULQJWKHLUVKHHS¶VDQGJRDWVLQWKLV
area. The area between Taurbat, Kanchli to Naltar
Pass is known as Naltar Bala. The physical envi-
ronment of upper Naltar is quite different from
lower Naltar as lakes, morains and glaciers can eas-
ily be seen [25].
© by PSP Volume 28 ± No. 9/2019 pages 6683-6691
Data collection and Analysis. The study is
EDVHGRQSHRSOH¶VSHUFHSWLRQ and field survey con-
ducted in August 2017 in Nagare and Dalan (Figure
1). The survey was done through questionnaire with
both open and close ended questions. The survey
questionnaire was divided into different sections
which are perception on climate change, impacts on
health and livelihood, impacts on pastures and ad-
aptation measures. Stratified random sampling was
employed. The sample population comprised on
people aged more than 40-50. No female was inter-
viewed due to the cultural values and norms. Some
of the data and real information was collected
through personal observation and participation,
especially the areas affected by climate change re-
lated hazards like flashflood/landslide etc. to gather
all the necessary and relevant information, personal
observation and participation has been done, as
sometimes respondents do not answer clearly about
the question being asked. Further secondary data
related to agriculture, livestock, socioeconomic and
climate data was analyzed. Supplementary review
was made from published and unpublished data to
cross check the findings. Metrological data was
acquired from Pakistan Meteorological Department
(PMD) from 1951-1999 and Data from 1999-2013
was acquired from Gilgit Baltistan Environmental
Protection Agency (GB-EPA) to check long term
changes in overall previous climate of the area in-
cluding temperature and rainfall to crosscheck
questionnaire data. The data and information col-
lected were tabulated in the MS-Excel-2007. Re-
gression analysis was applied to see the trends in
temperature and rainfall.
FIGURE 2
Perceived changes of climate (%) in 2000-2017
FIGURE 3
Annual mean maximum temperature (oC) of Gilgit
from 1951-2013
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Fresenius Environmental Bulletin
RESULTS
Impacts of Climate Change on weather. The
increase in temperature has mainly affected high
mountainous ecosystems of Gilgit- Baltistan; past
records show that the late twentieth century has
highest rate of increase in temperature [26]. In the
current study respondents were asked about the
change in temperature. They were also asked about
the months in which they feel more temperature
change. About 79% respondents perceived that cli-
mate change is happening and they told that tem-
perature is changed from the last 10-15 years and
68% of the respondents are having the view of in-
crease in temperature. There is an increasing trend
of temperature in the last two decades from 1980 to
2006 in Gilgit Baltistan [27]. Some of them identi-
fied that the temperature got more or less extreme.
They also told that June and July are the hottest
time of the year. When asked about the rainfall
about 46% respondents are having the view that
rainfall has decreased but 23% of the respondents
told that the intensity of the rain has increased. Ma-
jority of the respondents also identified decrease in
winter rainfall. About 32% respondents identified
decrease in snowfall while there was a mix re-
sponse regarding the number of days of snowfall.
The perceived responses were cross checked with
climate data. Climate data shows an increasing
trend in annual temperature from 1951-2013. Cli-
mate data shows an increasing trend in both tem-
perature and precipitation (Figure 3, 4). Analysis of
PMD shows that the precipitation seems to be an
increasing trend in Gilgit-Baltistan [28].
FIGURE 4
Annual rainfall (mm) of Gilgit district from
1951-2013
© by PSP Volume 28 ± No. 9/2019 pages 6683-6691
Perceived Impacts on human health and
livelihood. Farmers have experienced skin related
diseases like ringworm, measles, and prickly heat in
Nepal due to heat waves [29]. When asked about
the impacts of climate change on human health
63% respondents said that they observed new dis-
eases in the local area, some of them identified
some diseases which are Typhoid, Heart attack,
Cancer, Asthma and increase in bold pressure. Cli-
mate hazards such as flood followed by heavy in-
tense rainfalls, landslides and windstorms greatly
impacted on human causalities and injuries [30].
They also told that there is a small hospital in the
valley ZLWK QR PHGLFLQHV LQ LW WKH GRFWRU GRHVQ¶W
available all the time in the hospital so they have to
travel to Gilgit taking their patients for further
treatment which is a two hour travel from Naltar
Bala to Gilgit city.
Climate Change has always manifested itself
through extreme events such like the floods,
droughts, storms and GLOF [15]. Rapid melt of
snow and glacial lake outburst floods which also
enhance landslides [15]. People of Naltar valley are
aware of the hazards related to climate change.
When asked about climate related hazards they
faced in last 5-10 years they identified drought,
flood, landslide, snowstorm and avalanches and
they discussed that in the last ten years they have
faced some of the different hazards and 80% be-
lieve that the frequency of such hazards like land-
slide and floods are increasing. They also feel
threatened from the increasing amount of such haz-
ards. Increased risk of natural hazards like floods,
landslides extreme weathers land degradation out-
break of pests and food shortages [23]. In moun-
tainous areas like Naltar valley it is very difficult to
store enough food owing to the economic problems
of the people. Majority of the people belong to low-
er class so they cannot afford too much and they
cannot afford such good homes. When asked about
reserves of food from their agricultural input
around 78% people said no. They told that the food
they get from their farmland can be only utilized for
only 4-5 months only and they also cannot afford
good homes which can give them shelter in the ex-
FIGURE 5
Perceived climate change impacts on human health and livelihood
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Fresenius Environmental Bulletin
treme weather conditions in winters. 72% of the
respondents identified that such hazards are badly
impacting the local economy.
:KHDW DQG PDL]H GRQ¶W JLYH WKHP HQRXJK
amount of money as compared to potato so they
grow potato which gives them enough and profita-
ble amount of money that can be used to spend
months from their livelihood. Majority of the peo-
ple in Naltar valley grow potato instead of wheat
and maize. 84% of the respondents identified the
occurrence of pest in farmland and they are having
the view that potato crop is mostly effected by it. A
mix response of soil erosion in farmland was ob-
served some of the respondents are of the view that
fast rain also leads to soil erosion. When asked
about landslides and around 68% respondents feel
increase in such events as compare to the past, they
also told that when any such event occurs the local
government of Gilgit Baltistan helps them. In Him-
alayan region 30% of lakes and marshes have dis-
appeared due to increasing climate variability dur-
ing the past few decades [23]. Stream water is the
major source for drinking purpose in Naltar valley
and majority of the respondents agree with the fact
that water is enough for their household, farmland
and grazing land and no water conflicts were ob-
served in the community over water, although 28%
respondents observed decrease in amount of water
flow in streams. Peoples in Himalaya Uttarakhand,
India experienced scarcity of water in the region,
LW¶VSHUFHLYHGWREHUHVSRQVLEOHIRUUHGXFHGGXUDWLRQ
of snow in the region [31].
There is an increase of pests and outbreak of
new diseases to the livestock in the Himalaya Utta-
rakhand, India [31]. Livestock is a major source of
income in mountain livelihood. Around 69% re-
spondents identified new diseased in livestock.
When asked about new diseases in livestock some
of the respondents identified new diseases in cattle,
VKHHS¶V JRDWV DQG FRZV ZKLFK DUH %ODFN 4XDUWHU
and Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD). Peoples have
experienced losses of livestock due to flood, out-
break of new diseases and lack of forages in West-
ern Terai, Nepal [30].
© by PSP Volume 28 ± No. 9/2019 pages 6683-6691 Fresenius Environmental Bulletin

FIGURE 6
Conceptual framework for pastoral vulnerability: double exposure to Socio-political and
climate stresses [33]

FIGURE 7
Pastoralism in Naltar Valley, The vertical dimension (Field survey).

Perceived Climate Change Impacts on Pas-
ture. Rangelands are suffering from desertification,
degradation and soil erosion due to climate change
and anthropogenic factors [16]. Pastoralism is di-
rectly related to farmers, land and their herds. Pas-
toralism is an ancient profession in Naltar valley.
When asked about the current and previous amount
of pastures around 81% respondents believe that the
amount of pastures has decreased as compared to
the past. Around 66% respondents believe that
events like lightening, floods and sliding is in-
creased from the past and these events cause signif-
icant impacts on forest and grazing land like leaves
disorder and grass disturbance. Majority of the
respondents believe that events like rainfall,
drought, cloudburst and land slide disturbs the
rangeland, farmland, livestock and house hold
properties.
Altitudinal shifts of some valuable plant spe-
cies and degradation of pastures and pasture re-
sources is observed in HKH [2]. Decreases in grass-
land productivity, spreading of invasive species
changes in distribution and species composition of
plant communities are increases due to climate var-
iability [32]. Around 32% respondents perceived
that some of the species in the area have increased
in some areas of Naltar valley. A little number of
respondents are having the view that increase in

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© by PSP Volume 28 ± No. 9/2019 pages 6683-6691
these species are the result of temperature change.
The increased identified species are Circium vul-
gans, Canvolvulus arvensis, Amaranumus viridus,
Chenopodium botrys, Artemisia annua, Rubus ir-
riteus and Rumax nepaleusis. 7% of the respond-
ents thought that Circium vulgans is increased in
the grazing land. None of the respondents identified
any increase in the natural forest, forest fires and
the occurrence of any insect pest in the forest and
grazing land.
General Herding and Seasonal Pattern.
Rangelands are those areas of the earth in which,
due to physical limitations, such as low and erratic
precipitation, rough topography or cold tempera-
tures, are unsuited for cultivated agriculture and are
source for forage for wild and domestic animals of
WKH PRXQWDLQ UHJLRQ´ [34]. Pastoralism is directly
linked to different ecological zones and the peoples
have opted different agro-pastoral systems. In
summers pastoralists move to high altitude pastures
like the shani meadows while in spring and autumn
they move down and stay in Naltar bala. In winters
all the herders move to Naltar Paeen (lower Nalter)
(Figure 7). Climate change is predictable threat to
species of Himalayas, environment of these moun-
tains are strongly affected by climate, due to their
vertical (altitudinal) dimension [35]. Pastoralism is
one major economic source of life in the Hin-
dukush, Karakoram and Himalayan (HKH) moun-
tain livelihood. Majority of the people of Naltar
valley believe that the general pattern of moment to
different pastures at different altitudes is slightly
changed as compared to previous 15-20 years. They
move to the spring and summer pastures earlier as
compared to the past years, but no one was sure
regarding the approximate number of days. They
use Indigenous knowledge while moving to the
different pastures at different seasons of the year
(Figure 7).
DISCUSSION
Consistent increase in annual temperature is
observed in Pakistan [11]. Mountainous areas in
the Northern Pakistan are facing more increase in
temperature as compared to lower elevations and
sharp increase in temperature is seen in the last two
decades as compared to the previous decades [13].
Significant increase in annual maximum tempera-
ture from 1980-2006 is recorded in all the stations
of Gilgit except Bunji with the average increase of
0.38 oC per decade [27]. Temperature increase is
also seen in Bagrot Valley of district Gilgit with
shorter winters and warmer summers [3]. It is also
clear from the temperature data from 1951-2013
that there is an increase in temperature of 0.0024 oC
per decade (Figure 3) and the SHRSOH¶V perception
(Figure 2) is well-matched with the previous and
6688
Fresenius Environmental Bulletin
current findings. Significant trend of winter precipi-
tation is seen in Gilgit [27]. Precipitation pattern
from 1951-2013 shows the amount of precipitation
is also increasing with a trend of 0.0652 mm per
decade (Figure 4). There is a mismatch in the per-
ception and the precipitation trend of climate data
regarding the increase in precipitation; although the
previous literature shows an increasing trend in the
precipitation which is compatible with the climate
data of PMD and GB-EPA from 1951-2013. It was
observed from the interviews that community is
aware of changing weather patterns and also aware
of the threats from the extreme weather events
(Figure 2).
Natives feel threat from the climate related
hazards. Significant amount of climate extreme
events like drought, heat wave, cold spell and heavy
rainfall have been increased in the Hindukush, Ka-
rakoram and Himalayan region [1]. The only thing
they did to overcome such hazards to live away
from hazardous areas. There is no early warning
system available for the people from such hazards
and there is no mobility from such extreme events.
It is been observed in the Himalayan region that
increase in frequency of high intensity rainfall leads
to flash floods and landslides [36]. Mountain com-
munities in Upper Kushi, Nepal identified some
hazards that affect the livelihood more which are
erratic rainfall, pest in agriculture, livestock disease
and droughts, people related the variation of tem-
perature is linked with risk of pest while erratic
rainfall destroys crops and increase flood risks [37].
Mountain communities rely mainly on agriculture
and livestock. Shortage of water in streams is at-
tributed to temperature increase and reduced snow-
fall is major reasons of current changes [37]. Cli-
mate change is affecting the socioeconomic life of
the mountain communities. Variation in climate and
extreme weather events is likely to impact the re-
source dependent societies, affecting both assets
and livelihood in the global south [36]. Climate
change has directly affected the amount and quality
of water like decrease in river flow [1]. After the
initial increase in the river flow in the past 2-3 dec-
ades, the amount of water is projected to decrease
substantially which will affect the irrigation system
in Pakistan [38].
A large number of people in the study area de-
pend upon livestock to meet their basic needs. As
majority of them believe that the amount of pas-
tures is decreased as compared to past which they
think that climate change could be a major reason
of the issue, although many respondents claimed
that climate related hazards are also effecting the
pastures in some areas. Karakoram mainly possess
arid climate. Increase in the temperature can have
negative impacts on pastures in the arid and semiar-
id regions [39] as the duration of the growing sea-
son mainly effects the pasture production [40]. The
decrease in the grass of different pastures in Gilgit
© by PSP Volume 28 ± No. 9/2019 pages 6683-6691
Baltistan is linked with climate change and the local
people of the study area seems correct. As some of
the respondents are having the view that some of
the grass species in the area has increased. After the
specie identification of the collected sample from
the study area it is found that all the grass species
are less palatable in the area which might be a ma-
jor reason of their increase.
Adaptation and Coping Measures. From re-
sults and interviews it is cleared that people of Nal-
tar valley are aware of threats regarding changing
climate scenario and they are also trying to keep
away from vulnerable areas. Owing to current posi-
tion they have opted different methods of adapta-
tion strategies to deal with changing weather pat-
terns and climate extreme events. On household
level they have made different steps to deal with
harsh environment; economically stable families
has made sheet homes and people who are poor and
cannot afford sheet in their houses use plastics in
their roofs and put a little layer of soil on it so that
rain water cannot seep through. People who live
around vulnerable areas have made protected walls
to avoid any sort of flood and water flow into their
lands and houses. To deal with economic problems
majority of population grow potato instead of wheat
or maize as potato gives them a handsome amount
of money which other crops cannot. Majority of the
people perceive no change in the sowing time of
crops. Owing to the current development in the
technology all the respondents cleared that they
have shifted from traditional farming systems to
advance systems like use of tractors and machinery
as in the past times people use to plow their fields
through animals. Due to current amount of flow of
water in streams they have made an irrigation man-
agement system. Although many of them believe
that there is no proper mechanism for soil conserva-
tion, as a large number of people were unaware of
the mechanism related to soil management and con-
servation. Many people are opting different occu-
pations what their ancestors and fore fathers were
carrying. They have different opinions regarding
the financial issues of their family; instead of sell-
ing land or any other material majority of them said
that they use to sell their livestock or instead of
taking money from any friend or relative.
CONCLUSION
As compare with others mountainous areas of
the world climate change is also taking place in
Gilgit-Baltistan, change in climate and its adverse
impacts are rewarding progressively more obvious
in fragile ecosystems of Gilgit-Baltistan. Gilgit Bal-
tistan is a mountainous and glaciated landscape,
where Karakoram, Himalayas and Hindu Kush ±
WKH ZRUOG¶VWKUHHJUHDWPRXQWDLQUDQJHVPHHW'XH
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Fresenius Environmental Bulletin
to their geo-morphological, topographic, and eco-
logical conditions mountainous landscapes are
more vulnerable to climate change effects. A little
increase in temperature may cause rapid glacier
melting which ultimately causes extensive floods
and other associated hazards like soil erosion, de-
forestation, loss of agricultural lands and infrastruc-
ture leading to loss of lives and livelihoods. Agri-
culture may also affect due to floods and change in
precipitation patterns as the solid precipitation has
been shifted to liquid precipitation from winter to
spring. The sowing and growing seasons have also
been shifted forward. Productivity of agriculture
and rangelands has been affected by climate change
patterns. Composition of species and their habitat is
also mismatching. All these sectors are being af-
fected so adaptation and mitigation measures are
necessary to cope with these changes. Thus exten-
sive research is needed to identify and manage
these challenges.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Financial support for field work was provided
by Department of Environmental Sciences, Karako-
ram International University, Gilgit.
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